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Thursday, August 06, 2020
OT - NBA Bubble Thread
I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, and hopefully none of them get caught leaving the bubble for strip club wings.
Moses Taylor loves a good maim
Posted: August 06, 2020 at 06:04 PM | 4094 comment(s)
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i wonder if this is about getting the 21-22 calendar right as much as anything? (and way way down the list getting nba players the chance to play in the olympics)
i'm not a fan of edwards or avdija.
wiseman could do work alongside towns, but i'd have to think about it more before i'm sold on it.
okoro has limited offensive upside.
that leaves vassell, toppin, haliburton, hayes and ball.
eh, this is harder to explain than i thought it'd be.
believe it or not, it's better than it used to be.
vassell - he sounds like a nice player (that clip of his supposedly newly f'd up his shot recently aside) but just not enough ceiling?
i'm not a toppin guy. so stiff and i think the d will be an issue. should be a nice offensive player and help a team, though.
i want to spend more time looking at wiseman. i feel like he's a guy where your assessment of him says more about you than it does about him unless you've really done some deep dives.
ball... i don't know what to make of ball, for entirely different reasons.
Definitely. Selfishly, I would miss those games quite a bit.
I wonder if they can start early and just really slow play it- 2 games a week for the most part through the first month? No idea if that would be helpful or not.
Wiseman is really hard to evaluate for me. On the one hand, he's the one guy who looks like he actually has star upside at the top of the draft (unless you're reaching for guys like Killian Hayes).
He's a phenomenal finisher, lob threat and rebounder. He has the potential to be a difference maker in rim protection.
However:
He can't do anything but drop in PnR.
He can only play as a big.
He might have "star big man" disease, where he insists on doing stuff that doesn't contribute to winning.
I doubt he gets past Golden State at 2. Kerr/Myers love vertical spacing threats at the 5, and their roster is pretty bereft of bigs.
it doesn't seem like GSW values big men very highly.
It's hard to say because this regime has always drafted low.
They drafted Looney, Damian Jones and Jordan Bell in three straight drafts. Two of those were at the very end of the first round.
They brought in Boogie Cousins as a FA.
Obviously Draymond plays a lot at C when it's down to brass tacks, but they always seem to have three bigs on the roster who only play C.
I think it's hard to say how GSW values bigs.
they paid iguodala and livingston; they paid russell; they traded for wiggins.
i wouldn't be shocked if GSW took wiseman just because i think he's the cleanest prospect in this draft, but it seems more likely to me that they'll continue to put their assets into finding more quality wings to try to retool/rebuild/extend their small ball death squad. obi toppin could make sense from that point of view.
Obi Toppin is:
1. Maybe not an NBA player
2. A big, not a wing
toppin's ideal role is probably a small-ball 4/5, in a pace and space offense. with GSW, he has the ability to sit in the dunker spot or a short corner when his play isn't called; he can execute in the pick and roll, and pick and pop; he runs the floor extremely well; he's a threat to dribble, pass and shoot.
in terms of his physical profile, i think it's likely that toppin can increase his quickness and footspeed once he has an NBA training staff behind him (fwiw, i said the same thing about jayson tatum and monte morris). marginal improvements there (along with some scheme/technique improvements) can make a huge difference for him on the defensive end, given his wingspan and jumping ability.
Is it likely they'll have a lower cap number this coming season? Or would they do something like keep the cap number similar and then pro-rate everyone's deals by some set percentage? If it's just lowering the cap number, it'll obviously affect the paydays for pending free agents in a way it wouldn't for guys that have already set contracts, right?
I’m pretty sure the cap number will be in the same ballpark, then will pro-rate via the escrow mechanism.
Largely agree with tshipman on Wiseman. Think he has the potential to add an outside shot and could quicken up enough that you don’t have to play drop coverage with him. I also think he has the highest ceiling in this draft. (I am also more pro-big man than most.) Pelton’s analysis (and there’s a lot of overlap historically with his approach and where I land on stuff) of his pre-college numbers is not encouraging.
I’m both unsure how GS values fives and how they want to treat/protect Green going forward.
no.
just, no.
the physical tools are limited.
his ballhandling limited.
his playmaking is limited.
no burst.
no wiggle.
he can shoot from 28+', which we know because he couldn't create shots that were any closer to the basket than that.
he's a floor spacing combo-guard, but he might play in the league for a decade because "coaches trust him". i like him more than mannion, fwiw.
lottery -> hayes, haliburton, lewis
1st round -> terry
2nd round -> anthony
undrafted -> pitchard, mannion, maxey, quickley
So bad he doesn't even get a draft ranking??
isaiah joe, arkansas:
reminds me of zhaire smith, in that i haven't seen him string three dribbles together.
okay, he's just jodie meeks.
his range is impressive. it's legit.
high release point
not a quick release, but not slow, either.
has a decent stepback, but it's too compact. it creates less room than it should.
this guy's a gunner and he knows it. i don't think he's a great fit for the sixers because he's not much of a ballhandler or playmaker, but that's not something current sixers' management appears to value, so i wouldn't be shocked if they take him.
lottery -> hayes, haliburton, lewis
1st round -> terry
2nd round -> anthony
undrafted -> joe, pitchard, mannion, maxey, quickley
Hopefully he gets a late-season callup so some headline writer can write: "Joe gets cup of coffee."
(I agree that that’s a decent comp, though Meeks was better in general, particularly his handle. I’d look at Joe late but am not a fan.)
I guess they were playing nice and waiting to discuss this with the players association once the Finals and bubble energy had a chance to die down? No sense trying to stir anything up while still playing the Finals. Meanwhile, everyone has had time to go home, get comfy, look at the balance sheets, etc.
So even if they start before Christmas, which seems too quick considering last season just ended, if they want to play 72 games they'll need to:
1. End the season about a month and a half later than usual
2. Play a ton of back to backs to get all these games in
I'd like to see a bit more of an off-season, let the guys who just finished up in the bubble recover a bit more, and start on MLK day. Then plan on playing a 50 game season, and finish up the playoffs maybe two weeks later than usual, and hope to be back on normal schedule for 2021-22.
But I don't think the money interests will agree with that (on either side).
consider it "the new normal."
the news did get lost amid the pandemic
and as noted, some teams haven't played a game since early March. even a "normal" start would be an historically long break for them.
finally, the NBA will not play "a ton of back-to-backs." there's plenty of time when 2021-22 season also starts in late December. look also for up to a two-week break at midseason in lieu of an All-Star week/end.
Lowe reported in his recent podcast that they are over this idea, realizing that going deep into the summer isn't good for anyone.
if so, I'm surprised they are talking about a 72-game season and a two-week break at midseason.
so something doesn't add up.
Well that's for this year, not ongoing.
Some things about him seem simple, straightforward. He's really athletic, but can't turn that into any kind of volume offense. Willing to shoot threes, doesn't hit them. Young enough (23) that you can still dream on him taking a step forward (likely with catch and shoot corner threes).
What I don't have a handle on is - what is he defensively? A year ago, people talked about him like he was an undersized four, a player maybe in the Harkless vein. But the Heat have him guard twos as much as anything and he's better (imo) on D skittering around the perimeter and being rangy, versus down low, where he can be overpowered. It may well depend on matchups, I guess.
Q: What should the Wolves do with the pick?
Me, I'd love to see them move it for a pick in the 8-10 range this year and something in the first round next year.
Do they, though? The NBA has been great, seems silly to criticize them, but it's not like they can wait until December to make the schedule. I know they want butts in seats, but the idea that there is going to be some major covid news in, like, the next couple weeks that will meaningfully inform their decision to start December 25th or one month later seems kind of far-fetched to me. I would think giving the players a concrete schedule as soon as possible would be pretty important.
I can think of at least one major thing that might happen in the next week or 10 days that could inform their decision.
Right I get it, but is the idea here that Biden wins and somehow that means more butts in seats in January? Again, that doesn't really make sense.
EDIT: That's the point I'm trying to make. We know they're going to be playing February through June or July or whenever, there's no discussion on the middle and end, we're talking about a one month period of time that starts in only 60 days. I really can't imagine much changing on that one month period.
Are you asking what he is right now, or what he might be in like two years?
He doesn't shoot enough to be at the guard unless that lineup has a lot of shooting. He offers a little bit of everything on defense, but has to play in lineups where he can sit in the dunker's spot.
If he gets stronger, he's really intriguing as a backup big. I don't think he's ever a starter.
Of course. And also that's going to be the case on January 22nd, unless they're planning to play all their games in South Dakota or Mississippi.
Right.
The MLK opening day made sense when you were sacrificing 10 games to get fans the whole season.
Given everything, they're probably not getting fans in arenas until March at the earliest, so that's why Dec 22 is appealing again, because you get to be on TV at Christmas.
Yes, fully on the same page (I think I was being unclear above).
Also for comparison, in the shortened 2011-12 season, they started on Christmas and played 66 games. That season was WAY too compact. The majority of games were played as part of b2b situations (averaging 20 b2b sets per team, including 1.4 back-to-back-to-back sets per team).
And regardless of whether NBA players plan to participate in the Olympics, I can't imagine that the league wants its playoffs to run against them. The Olympics start July 23 assuming they go forward as scheduled. So if you're looking at a late December start with the Finals wrapping up around mid-July, I think a 72-game regular season is roughly 12-18 games more than you'd typically fit into that timeframe. It would be comparable to the 2011-12 slate in terms of schedule density and b2b sets, and travel could be even worse if it's 30 out-of-conference and 42 in-conference games.
I'd suggest something like a 58-game season: 3 against each in-conference opponent, 1 against each OOC opponent, plus 1 extra game against a geographic rival to even up home and away (eg LAL/LAC, NYK/BRK, DEN/UTA, MIN/[someone in the Central Division], etc.). That would make travel appreciably better than usual. Considering the likelihood of limited-to-no attendance, I think the focus should be on national TV commitments and the quality of play rather than maximizing the overall number of games.
It seems to me that if some people think he's a four (on defense) and some people think he's a two, that he's actually a three. (Which, by one approach of assessing these things, is the position he's guarded the fourth most often each of the last two seasons.) When I've watched the Heat, I've seen him split time between guarding twos and being a nominal big in small lineups.
He's interesting / matters because the FA market is so weak (as is the top of the draft), his youth makes him a potential target for rebuilding teams that want to invest in a growth stock, and that the kinds of teams that might try to pry him away from Miami (which has its eye on 21-22 by most accounts and might let him go to keep money off the books) might also be ones that try to stretch him into being a new kind of player.
Oh and I do not think you can make him a four going forward (at least not in the next five years) - I don't think he'll add enough strength. Get the shooting to passable, maintain the agility, and add a bit of strength - you've got a guy who can start on some teams as a three or be an ace reserve. If not, he still has value as a switchable defensive specialist.
That's not at all what I'm trying to say, but whoever wins is likely going to impact how the players or the owners respond to specific proposals. It doesn't means everything is magically fixed, but overall optimism or pessimism could leak into the negotiations, regardless of who wins (and how the win happens and what happens after, etc). That doesn't even take into account the impact of policy decisions made or announced by either side in light of the outcome....
...look, things can always get worse, quickly and in unimaginable ways, regardless of the outcome of the election (or maybe in spite of, in either direction). My general position these days it to not make any grand predictions, including having any idea on what may or may not impact everything (or nothing).
EDIT: And this isn't just limited to the Presidential election. Tons of local #### is up for discussion too.
My preference from early on was to figure out how low they could get Okoro and try to pick up a 1st next year for dropping back. Depends heavily on a trade partner, of course. I would also like Vassel, or pretty much any wing who can shoot or defend really well.
They have the 17 they could use as part of a deal like that, too. 1 + 17 to Detroit for 7 and their next year's?
I would do that in a heartbeat, but it probably requires Detroit to love one of the top 3 guys. FWIW, Ball would be a pretty good building block for them.
Therefore, I don't trade up and take Ball. If you were trying to win next year, he doesn't help you.
https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/team
I can easily see him getting to 3, 4, 5, 6 and all of those guys passing on him (though Chicago would be crazy to).
Edit: just to expand--the thing is that Wiseman is going at 2 most likely. So if you want one of Anthony Edwards or LaMelo, you can almost certainly get them at 3. So there's no reason to trade up to 1 because Minnesota doesn't want any of the top 3. So you can probably get one of LaMelo or Edwards at 3, and it would be much cheaper to trade up to 3 than to 1.
I generally agree, but if nobody trades up, Minnesota still has to take somebody, so one of Ball/Edwards and Wiseman will be gone after the top 2. It really depends on which teams talk themselves into which players.
2. Golden State---same as above, except window is closing, Ball is at least two years away.
3. Charlotte---MJ is not taking Ball, and they don't want to send that message to Graham, other guards.
4. Chicago---should take Ball, but they just took Coby White as their PG, they have Lavine already also.
5. Cavs---Sexton/Garland already.
6. Hawks---Ball doesn't fit with Trae.
7. Detroit---take him.
8. New York---take him.
Chicago is only team in top 6 I can see taking LaMelo. Someone may trade up for him...but if they do, they need to keep all future picks, because LaMelo can be a future star, but won't be good next year (or probably year after).
I see Minnesota taking Okoro over Ball, along with a handful of other options.
I don't disagree, but that just feels way too much like Athony Bennett going #1.
ETA: Chad Ford just posted the same sentiment on twitter. I swear I posted before him, check the timestamps.
That screams bust to me.
We haven't even gotten a combine, so you can't say it's because of his performance at a combine.
Hayes doesn't have a right hand, could be quicker / better at getting separation, and has struggled from deep. This year, that's a high lotto guy.
So Ball. I've had a dumb bias when it comes to him and Lonzo which is that I decided years ago that Lonzo was who he was partly in spite of his dad, while LaMelo had better tools but was more shaped by the madness around the family. Lonzo - plus defender who was an efficient shooter in college despite the bad shot and kind of a head down worker type. LaMelo - scoring 92 in a HS game and having no sense of shot selection and probably unwilling to do the dirty work on defense.
That's not completely fair, beyond the groundless way in which the LaMelo half of that was formed. LaMelo, while not an asset on that end yet, showed signs in Australia from what I've read (and the teeny bit I've seen) that he's willing to put some effort in on D. Like Lonzo, he's a good rebounder and willing to push in transition. Probably a better passer and ballhandler than Lonzo. I don't know what to do with that shot. It has range but might need to get rebuilt and certainly the percentages to date are trash. You don't draft a guy one and think "gotta rebuild his shot and get him to defend consistently". If I have a bad team and job security, I think I'd like to have him around. (Like if I'm Detroit and I'm not trading away next year's pick.) He probably has the highest ceiling in this draft, though. Wiseman and Edwards might be the next two -- even as the floors for Edwards and Ball are depressing.
Feels like no one dislikes Okongwu - it's just that the ceiling might not be there. (That said, some see him and think Bam II, which would be nice. Don't quite see that myself, but he can play.)
Considering the new FO and coaching staff, I don't think there's any real reason why they'd be committed to anyone on the current roster if they think they can get someone better. Having said that, I do think the Bulls want to be more competitive next year - why else pay Donovan a shitton of money - so I don't know if they're looking to draft a development guy. Then again, most rumors I've seen lately have them targeting Avdija.
It's just ... how valuable is Richaun Holmes? Because I think Okongwu has near a 100% chance to be at least Richaun Holmes, but I don't think you can draft that in the lottery in current year.
I feel like Hayes is the guy benefitting from all the top guys looking really bust-ish. It's easy to talk yourself into him because the flaws are not as obvious and he actually has star upside. I'd be excited taking him at 4 or 5 and very nervous at 1.
I'd be up for it.
Especially me drafting badly as the Kings.
Feel the verisimilitude!
I submitted at least two new threads, but no keys, no dice it seems.
the next time a role player has a great season for the sixers will be the first time in a long time.
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