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Thursday, August 06, 2020

OT - NBA Bubble Thread

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, and hopefully none of them get caught leaving the bubble for strip club wings.

Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: August 06, 2020 at 06:04 PM | 4089 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: bubbles, nba, off-topic

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   4001. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: October 23, 2020 at 03:28 PM (#5984763)
Flip
   4002. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 23, 2020 at 03:29 PM (#5984764)
i find the proposed christmas start surprising, given that i thought mlk days was the earliest possible begin date (depending on what teams think they can do to get butts in seats).
i wonder if this is about getting the 21-22 calendar right as much as anything? (and way way down the list getting nba players the chance to play in the olympics)
   4003. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: October 23, 2020 at 03:47 PM (#5984768)
I legitimately stand corrected about 12/22 being way too early.
   4004. jmurph Posted: October 23, 2020 at 03:51 PM (#5984769)
On the aforementioned annoying Simmons-Lowe podcast, Lowe talked about the league really focusing on ensuring that 21-22 is normal. He thought that would mean a shortened 20-21 season (70ish games), starting around MLK Day weekend or before, and ending in June/July so that there is a normal off-season.
   4005. CFBF's Results are Certified Posted: October 23, 2020 at 03:52 PM (#5984770)
I've found that the non-stiggles draft analysis is woefully deficient in discussion of wiggle.
   4006. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 23, 2020 at 04:10 PM (#5984775)
Because of his fit, or his overall value as a trade piece?
process of elimination, mostly.

i'm not a fan of edwards or avdija.
wiseman could do work alongside towns, but i'd have to think about it more before i'm sold on it.
okoro has limited offensive upside.


that leaves vassell, toppin, haliburton, hayes and ball.


eh, this is harder to explain than i thought it'd be.
I've found that the non-stiggles draft analysis is woefully deficient in discussion of wiggle.

believe it or not, it's better than it used to be.
   4007. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 23, 2020 at 04:15 PM (#5984778)
i'm also not a fan of edwards or avdija. i did like avidja a year or two back! but the shot just hasn't come around like it needs to or even close.

vassell - he sounds like a nice player (that clip of his supposedly newly f'd up his shot recently aside) but just not enough ceiling?

i'm not a toppin guy. so stiff and i think the d will be an issue. should be a nice offensive player and help a team, though.

i want to spend more time looking at wiseman. i feel like he's a guy where your assessment of him says more about you than it does about him unless you've really done some deep dives.

ball... i don't know what to make of ball, for entirely different reasons.
   4008. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: October 23, 2020 at 04:18 PM (#5984779)
Christmas is one of the biggest days for NBA games, so I could see why they'd push hard to start then.
   4009. jmurph Posted: October 23, 2020 at 04:25 PM (#5984783)
Christmas is one of the biggest days for NBA games, so I could see why they'd push hard to start then.

Definitely. Selfishly, I would miss those games quite a bit.

I wonder if they can start early and just really slow play it- 2 games a week for the most part through the first month? No idea if that would be helpful or not.
   4010. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: October 23, 2020 at 04:28 PM (#5984784)
Who could the Wolves realistically trade the #1 for? I think they move down into the 8 range or so, and pick something up in next years draft?
   4011. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 23, 2020 at 04:37 PM (#5984785)
Who could the Wolves realistically trade the #1 for? I think they move down into the 8 range or so, and pick something up in next years draft?
tharris.

   4012. smileyy Posted: October 23, 2020 at 05:37 PM (#5984798)
[3965] is funnier if you think it's about LaMelo Ball.
   4013. smileyy Posted: October 23, 2020 at 05:53 PM (#5984800)
Hard to believe (if I'm mathing right) that LeBron is only 3.5 years older than Steph Curry.
   4014. tshipman Posted: October 23, 2020 at 08:04 PM (#5984822)
i want to spend more time looking at wiseman. i feel like he's a guy where your assessment of him says more about you than it does about him unless you've really done some deep dives.


Wiseman is really hard to evaluate for me. On the one hand, he's the one guy who looks like he actually has star upside at the top of the draft (unless you're reaching for guys like Killian Hayes).

He's a phenomenal finisher, lob threat and rebounder. He has the potential to be a difference maker in rim protection.

However:
He can't do anything but drop in PnR.
He can only play as a big.
He might have "star big man" disease, where he insists on doing stuff that doesn't contribute to winning.

I doubt he gets past Golden State at 2. Kerr/Myers love vertical spacing threats at the 5, and their roster is pretty bereft of bigs.
   4015. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 23, 2020 at 08:33 PM (#5984827)
I doubt he gets past Golden State at 2. Kerr/Myers love vertical spacing threats at the 5, and their roster is pretty bereft of bigs.
counterpoint:
it doesn't seem like GSW values big men very highly.
   4016. tshipman Posted: October 23, 2020 at 08:42 PM (#5984830)
it doesn't seem like GSW values big men very highly.


It's hard to say because this regime has always drafted low.

They drafted Looney, Damian Jones and Jordan Bell in three straight drafts. Two of those were at the very end of the first round.

They brought in Boogie Cousins as a FA.

Obviously Draymond plays a lot at C when it's down to brass tacks, but they always seem to have three bigs on the roster who only play C.

I think it's hard to say how GSW values bigs.
   4017. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 23, 2020 at 09:27 PM (#5984838)
I think it's hard to say how GSW values bigs.

they paid iguodala and livingston; they paid russell; they traded for wiggins.


i wouldn't be shocked if GSW took wiseman just because i think he's the cleanest prospect in this draft, but it seems more likely to me that they'll continue to put their assets into finding more quality wings to try to retool/rebuild/extend their small ball death squad. obi toppin could make sense from that point of view.
   4018. tshipman Posted: October 23, 2020 at 10:39 PM (#5984853)
obi toppin could make sense from that point of view.


Obi Toppin is:
1. Maybe not an NBA player
2. A big, not a wing
   4019. Rally Posted: October 23, 2020 at 11:06 PM (#5984859)
If you strike him off your draft list, he will become more powerful than you can possibly imagine.
   4020. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 23, 2020 at 11:22 PM (#5984861)
Obi Toppin is:
1. Maybe not an NBA player
2. A big, not a wing
noone in this draft is without risk.

toppin's ideal role is probably a small-ball 4/5, in a pace and space offense. with GSW, he has the ability to sit in the dunker spot or a short corner when his play isn't called; he can execute in the pick and roll, and pick and pop; he runs the floor extremely well; he's a threat to dribble, pass and shoot.


in terms of his physical profile, i think it's likely that toppin can increase his quickness and footspeed once he has an NBA training staff behind him (fwiw, i said the same thing about jayson tatum and monte morris). marginal improvements there (along with some scheme/technique improvements) can make a huge difference for him on the defensive end, given his wingspan and jumping ability.
   4021. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 24, 2020 at 08:13 AM (#5984869)
Kurt Helin @basketballtalk
Report: NBA missed revenue projections by $1.5 billion last season nba.nbcsports.com/2020/10/24/rep…
   4022. Rally Posted: October 24, 2020 at 09:54 AM (#5984874)
Quick math, about 50 mil per team, which could mean 25 million off the cap.
   4023. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: October 24, 2020 at 10:57 AM (#5984875)
Quick math, about 50 mil per team, which could mean 25 million off the cap.


Is it likely they'll have a lower cap number this coming season? Or would they do something like keep the cap number similar and then pro-rate everyone's deals by some set percentage? If it's just lowering the cap number, it'll obviously affect the paydays for pending free agents in a way it wouldn't for guys that have already set contracts, right?
   4024. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 24, 2020 at 11:38 AM (#5984877)
I think Obi will provide NBA value but am not convinced that his 10th percentile healthy outcome is one that keeps him in the league.

I’m pretty sure the cap number will be in the same ballpark, then will pro-rate via the escrow mechanism.

Largely agree with tshipman on Wiseman. Think he has the potential to add an outside shot and could quicken up enough that you don’t have to play drop coverage with him. I also think he has the highest ceiling in this draft. (I am also more pro-big man than most.) Pelton’s analysis (and there’s a lot of overlap historically with his approach and where I land on stuff) of his pre-college numbers is not encouraging.

I’m both unsure how GS values fives and how they want to treat/protect Green going forward.
   4025. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 24, 2020 at 11:58 AM (#5984879)
payton prichard, oregon:

no.
just, no.
the physical tools are limited.
his ballhandling limited.
his playmaking is limited.
no burst.
no wiggle.
he can shoot from 28+', which we know because he couldn't create shots that were any closer to the basket than that.


he's a floor spacing combo-guard, but he might play in the league for a decade because "coaches trust him". i like him more than mannion, fwiw.


lottery -> hayes, haliburton, lewis
1st round -> terry
2nd round -> anthony
undrafted -> pitchard, mannion, maxey, quickley
   4026. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: October 24, 2020 at 12:09 PM (#5984880)
payton prichard, oregon:

no.
just, no.


So bad he doesn't even get a draft ranking??
   4027. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 24, 2020 at 12:13 PM (#5984882)
So bad he doesn't even get a draft ranking??
no, i just keep thinking his name is prescott.
   4028. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 24, 2020 at 03:03 PM (#5984900)
Bryan Kalbrosky @BryanKalbrosky
One mock draft fit that I'm most confident in right now, based on various conversations: Arkansas sharpshooter Isaiah Joe to the Philadelphia 76ers. I wouldn't be surprised if Philly encouraged him to turn pro after his early entry withdrawal decision. bit.ly/2HAom2F
   4029. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 24, 2020 at 03:23 PM (#5984901)
apropos of nothing...:

isaiah joe, arkansas:

reminds me of zhaire smith, in that i haven't seen him string three dribbles together.
okay, he's just jodie meeks.
his range is impressive. it's legit.
high release point
not a quick release, but not slow, either.
has a decent stepback, but it's too compact. it creates less room than it should.


this guy's a gunner and he knows it. i don't think he's a great fit for the sixers because he's not much of a ballhandler or playmaker, but that's not something current sixers' management appears to value, so i wouldn't be shocked if they take him.


lottery -> hayes, haliburton, lewis
1st round -> terry
2nd round -> anthony
undrafted -> joe, pitchard, mannion, maxey, quickley
   4030. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 24, 2020 at 03:27 PM (#5984902)
Andy Larsen @andyblarsen
I had a dream last night that I was at a Jazz/Rockets game at the Toyota Center, then I was asked to come out to the court during the timeout. Then I was made to explain every traffic violation of my life to Tilman Fertitta while Clutch egged on the crowd to boo after each.

   4031. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: October 24, 2020 at 05:45 PM (#5984910)

One mock draft fit that I'm most confident in right now, based on various conversations: Arkansas sharpshooter Isaiah Joe to the Philadelphia 76ers.


Hopefully he gets a late-season callup so some headline writer can write: "Joe gets cup of coffee."
   4032. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 24, 2020 at 07:45 PM (#5984938)
If you can get a young Jodie Meeks with a second round pick, you should consider it.
(I agree that that’s a decent comp, though Meeks was better in general, particularly his handle. I’d look at Joe late but am not a fan.)
   4033. King Mekong Posted: October 25, 2020 at 01:15 PM (#5985251)
What’d I miss in the bubble thread? Any arthritic triceratops level imagery
   4034. puck Posted: October 25, 2020 at 02:40 PM (#5985262)
Dec 22 is interesting in that many expected the season to start up again with the Dec 25 games but the initial interviews (from the bubble) mentioned late Jan and possibly early Feb.

I guess they were playing nice and waiting to discuss this with the players association once the Finals and bubble energy had a chance to die down? No sense trying to stir anything up while still playing the Finals. Meanwhile, everyone has had time to go home, get comfy, look at the balance sheets, etc.
   4035. smileyy Posted: October 25, 2020 at 10:20 PM (#5985353)
I hope the league learns from The Bubble how much travel impacts quality of play.
   4036. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: October 26, 2020 at 03:39 AM (#5985419)
[3965] is funnier if you think it's about LaMelo Ball.
I thought it was about Lavar, and I'm going to continue to think that.
   4037. Rally Posted: October 26, 2020 at 09:12 AM (#5985426)
On start dates: Last season by 12/22 Lakers had played 30 games. By MLK day, they were at 43.

So even if they start before Christmas, which seems too quick considering last season just ended, if they want to play 72 games they'll need to:

1. End the season about a month and a half later than usual
2. Play a ton of back to backs to get all these games in

I'd like to see a bit more of an off-season, let the guys who just finished up in the bubble recover a bit more, and start on MLK day. Then plan on playing a 50 game season, and finish up the playoffs maybe two weeks later than usual, and hope to be back on normal schedule for 2021-22.

But I don't think the money interests will agree with that (on either side).
   4038. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 26, 2020 at 09:38 AM (#5985429)
Bobby Marks (ESPN insider, $) has his list of expected FA salaries out ( Link )
   4039. Howie Menckel Posted: October 26, 2020 at 09:52 AM (#5985434)
The NBA already was seriously considering, even before COVID-19, a shift of the annual schedule to December through the summer, avoiding the bulk of the football schedule.

consider it "the new normal."

the news did get lost amid the pandemic

and as noted, some teams haven't played a game since early March. even a "normal" start would be an historically long break for them.

finally, the NBA will not play "a ton of back-to-backs." there's plenty of time when 2021-22 season also starts in late December. look also for up to a two-week break at midseason in lieu of an All-Star week/end.
   4040. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 26, 2020 at 09:58 AM (#5985436)
i'd be curious as to how much we'll see situations like team x flies into city y and plays multiple games there - be it in the form of extended series or mini bubbles (like four teams go to city y and play a mini-tourney)
   4041. jmurph Posted: October 26, 2020 at 10:04 AM (#5985438)
The NBA already was seriously considering, even before COVID-19, a shift of the annual schedule to December through the summer, avoiding the bulk of the football schedule.

consider it "the new normal."

Lowe reported in his recent podcast that they are over this idea, realizing that going deep into the summer isn't good for anyone.
   4042. Howie Menckel Posted: October 26, 2020 at 10:29 AM (#5985443)
Lowe reported in his recent podcast that they are over this idea, realizing that going deep into the summer isn't good for anyone.

if so, I'm surprised they are talking about a 72-game season and a two-week break at midseason.

so something doesn't add up.
   4043. jmurph Posted: October 26, 2020 at 10:54 AM (#5985445)
if so, I'm surprised they are talking about a 72-game season and a two-week break at midseason.

so something doesn't add up.

Well that's for this year, not ongoing.
   4044. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 26, 2020 at 11:10 AM (#5985448)
I have a FA question - Derrick Jones Jr ... what exactly is he?
Some things about him seem simple, straightforward. He's really athletic, but can't turn that into any kind of volume offense. Willing to shoot threes, doesn't hit them. Young enough (23) that you can still dream on him taking a step forward (likely with catch and shoot corner threes).
What I don't have a handle on is - what is he defensively? A year ago, people talked about him like he was an undersized four, a player maybe in the Harkless vein. But the Heat have him guard twos as much as anything and he's better (imo) on D skittering around the perimeter and being rangy, versus down low, where he can be overpowered. It may well depend on matchups, I guess.
   4045. Rally Posted: October 26, 2020 at 11:10 AM (#5985449)
I can't imagine something as fundamental as the timing of the sports schedule being so up in the air. Just because of the comparison to baseball. Since they play inside they can play any time. In baseball, at least for the northern cities, the baseball schedule comes down to: We start playing when it's warm enough to play. We stop when it gets too cold.
   4046. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 26, 2020 at 11:22 AM (#5985453)
it's wild, isn't it? even as the reasons for it being up in the air make sense.
   4047. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: October 26, 2020 at 11:24 AM (#5985454)
It seems simultaneous totally insane and totally obvious. 2020, in a nutshell, I guess.

Q: What should the Wolves do with the pick?

Me, I'd love to see them move it for a pick in the 8-10 range this year and something in the first round next year.
   4048. jmurph Posted: October 26, 2020 at 11:32 AM (#5985455)
it's wild, isn't it? even as the reasons for it being up in the air make sense.

Do they, though? The NBA has been great, seems silly to criticize them, but it's not like they can wait until December to make the schedule. I know they want butts in seats, but the idea that there is going to be some major covid news in, like, the next couple weeks that will meaningfully inform their decision to start December 25th or one month later seems kind of far-fetched to me. I would think giving the players a concrete schedule as soon as possible would be pretty important.
   4049. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: October 26, 2020 at 12:18 PM (#5985463)
I think the major COVID news is happening as we speak.
   4050. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: October 26, 2020 at 12:38 PM (#5985466)
the idea that there is going to be some major covid news in, like, the next couple weeks that will meaningfully inform their decision

I can think of at least one major thing that might happen in the next week or 10 days that could inform their decision.
   4051. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 26, 2020 at 12:42 PM (#5985467)
I think it's less about new COVID news (though I'm sure they're following the uptick closely) and more about getting everybody on the same page.
   4052. jmurph Posted: October 26, 2020 at 12:48 PM (#5985468)
I can think of at least one major thing that might happen in the next week or 10 days that could inform their decision.

Right I get it, but is the idea here that Biden wins and somehow that means more butts in seats in January? Again, that doesn't really make sense.

EDIT: That's the point I'm trying to make. We know they're going to be playing February through June or July or whenever, there's no discussion on the middle and end, we're talking about a one month period of time that starts in only 60 days. I really can't imagine much changing on that one month period.
   4053. tshipman Posted: October 26, 2020 at 12:51 PM (#5985469)
I think the idea of opening on December 22 is that you aren't going to have fans in the arenas. I think the reason why it's in flux is because the owners have to make a choice of whether they want to accept that or not.

I have a FA question - Derrick Jones Jr ... what exactly is he?


Are you asking what he is right now, or what he might be in like two years?

He doesn't shoot enough to be at the guard unless that lineup has a lot of shooting. He offers a little bit of everything on defense, but has to play in lineups where he can sit in the dunker's spot.

If he gets stronger, he's really intriguing as a backup big. I don't think he's ever a starter.
   4054. jmurph Posted: October 26, 2020 at 12:54 PM (#5985471)
I think the idea of opening on December 22 is that you aren't going to have fans in the arenas. I think the reason why it's in flux is because the owners have to make a choice of whether they want to accept that or not.

Of course. And also that's going to be the case on January 22nd, unless they're planning to play all their games in South Dakota or Mississippi.
   4055. tshipman Posted: October 26, 2020 at 01:05 PM (#5985473)
Of course. And also that's going to be the case on January 22nd, unless they're planning to play all their games in South Dakota or Mississippi.


Right.

The MLK opening day made sense when you were sacrificing 10 games to get fans the whole season.

Given everything, they're probably not getting fans in arenas until March at the earliest, so that's why Dec 22 is appealing again, because you get to be on TV at Christmas.
   4056. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: October 26, 2020 at 01:37 PM (#5985480)
Sorry if someone posted and I missed it, but was anyone here a "virtual fan" for a game in the Bubble?
   4057. jmurph Posted: October 26, 2020 at 01:38 PM (#5985483)
Given everything, they're probably not getting fans in arenas until March at the earliest, so that's why Dec 22 is appealing again, because you get to be on TV at Christmas.

Yes, fully on the same page (I think I was being unclear above).
   4058. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: October 26, 2020 at 01:38 PM (#5985484)
On start dates: Last season by 12/22 Lakers had played 30 games. By MLK day, they were at 43.

So even if they start before Christmas, which seems too quick considering last season just ended, if they want to play 72 games they'll need to:

1. End the season about a month and a half later than usual
2. Play a ton of back to backs to get all these games in

Also for comparison, in the shortened 2011-12 season, they started on Christmas and played 66 games. That season was WAY too compact. The majority of games were played as part of b2b situations (averaging 20 b2b sets per team, including 1.4 back-to-back-to-back sets per team).

And regardless of whether NBA players plan to participate in the Olympics, I can't imagine that the league wants its playoffs to run against them. The Olympics start July 23 assuming they go forward as scheduled. So if you're looking at a late December start with the Finals wrapping up around mid-July, I think a 72-game regular season is roughly 12-18 games more than you'd typically fit into that timeframe. It would be comparable to the 2011-12 slate in terms of schedule density and b2b sets, and travel could be even worse if it's 30 out-of-conference and 42 in-conference games.

I'd suggest something like a 58-game season: 3 against each in-conference opponent, 1 against each OOC opponent, plus 1 extra game against a geographic rival to even up home and away (eg LAL/LAC, NYK/BRK, DEN/UTA, MIN/[someone in the Central Division], etc.). That would make travel appreciably better than usual. Considering the likelihood of limited-to-no attendance, I think the focus should be on national TV commitments and the quality of play rather than maximizing the overall number of games.
   4059. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 26, 2020 at 01:53 PM (#5985493)
I'm more curious as to what Jones is right now on defense (offense I think is straight forward - put him in the dunker's spot, nudge up that corner three shooting a bit).
It seems to me that if some people think he's a four (on defense) and some people think he's a two, that he's actually a three. (Which, by one approach of assessing these things, is the position he's guarded the fourth most often each of the last two seasons.) When I've watched the Heat, I've seen him split time between guarding twos and being a nominal big in small lineups.
He's interesting / matters because the FA market is so weak (as is the top of the draft), his youth makes him a potential target for rebuilding teams that want to invest in a growth stock, and that the kinds of teams that might try to pry him away from Miami (which has its eye on 21-22 by most accounts and might let him go to keep money off the books) might also be ones that try to stretch him into being a new kind of player.

Oh and I do not think you can make him a four going forward (at least not in the next five years) - I don't think he'll add enough strength. Get the shooting to passable, maintain the agility, and add a bit of strength - you've got a guy who can start on some teams as a three or be an ace reserve. If not, he still has value as a switchable defensive specialist.
   4060. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: October 26, 2020 at 01:54 PM (#5985494)
Right I get it, but is the idea here that Biden wins and somehow that means more butts in seats in January? Again, that doesn't really make sense.

That's not at all what I'm trying to say, but whoever wins is likely going to impact how the players or the owners respond to specific proposals. It doesn't means everything is magically fixed, but overall optimism or pessimism could leak into the negotiations, regardless of who wins (and how the win happens and what happens after, etc). That doesn't even take into account the impact of policy decisions made or announced by either side in light of the outcome....


...look, things can always get worse, quickly and in unimaginable ways, regardless of the outcome of the election (or maybe in spite of, in either direction). My general position these days it to not make any grand predictions, including having any idea on what may or may not impact everything (or nothing).

EDIT: And this isn't just limited to the Presidential election. Tons of local #### is up for discussion too.
   4061. aberg Posted: October 26, 2020 at 01:59 PM (#5985495)
Me, I'd love to see them move it for a pick in the 8-10 range this year and something in the first round next year.


My preference from early on was to figure out how low they could get Okoro and try to pick up a 1st next year for dropping back. Depends heavily on a trade partner, of course. I would also like Vassel, or pretty much any wing who can shoot or defend really well.
   4062. tshipman Posted: October 26, 2020 at 02:00 PM (#5985497)
I think part of the idea is to learn from the bubble and reduce travel by scheduling B2Bs to take place in the same city whenever possible. So a team might play all four games against a conference opponent in a week.
   4063. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: October 26, 2020 at 02:01 PM (#5985498)
My preference from early on was to figure out how low they could get Okoro and try to pick up a 1st next year for dropping back. Depends heavily on a trade partner, of course. I would also like Vassel, or pretty much any wing who can shoot or defend really well.

They have the 17 they could use as part of a deal like that, too. 1 + 17 to Detroit for 7 and their next year's?
   4064. jmurph Posted: October 26, 2020 at 02:01 PM (#5985499)
Fair enough (to 4060), I just suspect they're going to move very quickly to agree to a Christmas-ish start rather than crossing their fingers and hoping for some major change in the next few weeks that would allow for fans in seats in January at the risk of lopping off a bunch of extra games or going longer than normal. I doubt the players/owners want to eliminate so many games, it's been reported they don't want to run the season through the summer, etc.
   4065. aberg Posted: October 26, 2020 at 02:15 PM (#5985501)
They have the 17 they could use as part of a deal like that, too. 1 + 17 to Detroit for 7 and their next year's?


I would do that in a heartbeat, but it probably requires Detroit to love one of the top 3 guys. FWIW, Ball would be a pretty good building block for them.
   4066. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 26, 2020 at 02:46 PM (#5985509)
that's an interesting trade idea - that could make sense for both teams.
   4067. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: October 26, 2020 at 02:48 PM (#5985510)
Is there a comprehensive list of what teams hold which picks/swaps/non-roster assets that could be used in a trade?
   4068. Willard Baseball Posted: October 26, 2020 at 02:54 PM (#5985511)
I think the value to drafting Ball is that he makes flashy plays, brings in interest, while being bad enough you can tank with him. Then you get a top 3-5 pick next year (in a much better draft) and build around Ball/new guy.

Therefore, I don't trade up and take Ball. If you were trying to win next year, he doesn't help you.
   4069. jmurph Posted: October 26, 2020 at 02:57 PM (#5985512)
Is there a comprehensive list of what teams hold which picks/swaps/non-roster assets that could be used in a trade?

https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/team
   4070. Willard Baseball Posted: October 26, 2020 at 02:58 PM (#5985513)
For the reason above, it is why I think LaMelo falls. Minnesota/Golden State want to win right away, so they aren't taking him. If you trade up to get him, you need to keep your picks for next year (and maybe the year after).

I can easily see him getting to 3, 4, 5, 6 and all of those guys passing on him (though Chicago would be crazy to).
   4071. tshipman Posted: October 26, 2020 at 03:10 PM (#5985516)
If you're trading up, don't you have to be trading up for Wiseman? Is anyone out there dumb enough to trade up for Anthony Edwards or LaMelo Ball?

Edit: just to expand--the thing is that Wiseman is going at 2 most likely. So if you want one of Anthony Edwards or LaMelo, you can almost certainly get them at 3. So there's no reason to trade up to 1 because Minnesota doesn't want any of the top 3. So you can probably get one of LaMelo or Edwards at 3, and it would be much cheaper to trade up to 3 than to 1.
   4072. aberg Posted: October 26, 2020 at 03:19 PM (#5985517)
If you're trading up, don't you have to be trading up for Wiseman? Is anyone out there dumb enough to trade up for Anthony Edwards or LaMelo Ball?

Edit: just to expand--the thing is that Wiseman is going at 2 most likely. So if you want one of Anthony Edwards or LaMelo, you can almost certainly get them at 3. So there's no reason to trade up to 1 because Minnesota doesn't want any of the top 3. So you can probably get one of LaMelo or Edwards at 3, and it would be much cheaper to trade up to 3 than to 1.


I generally agree, but if nobody trades up, Minnesota still has to take somebody, so one of Ball/Edwards and Wiseman will be gone after the top 2. It really depends on which teams talk themselves into which players.
   4073. Willard Baseball Posted: October 26, 2020 at 03:23 PM (#5985519)
1. Minnesota---can't take Ball, they have Russell, and they have to win, or Towns is out.
2. Golden State---same as above, except window is closing, Ball is at least two years away.
3. Charlotte---MJ is not taking Ball, and they don't want to send that message to Graham, other guards.
4. Chicago---should take Ball, but they just took Coby White as their PG, they have Lavine already also.
5. Cavs---Sexton/Garland already.
6. Hawks---Ball doesn't fit with Trae.
7. Detroit---take him.
8. New York---take him.

Chicago is only team in top 6 I can see taking LaMelo. Someone may trade up for him...but if they do, they need to keep all future picks, because LaMelo can be a future star, but won't be good next year (or probably year after).

I see Minnesota taking Okoro over Ball, along with a handful of other options.
   4074. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: October 26, 2020 at 03:39 PM (#5985522)
I pull for the Pistons and if they traded up for Ball at the expense of next year's pick, I'd be pretty disappointed. Word on the street is next year's draft is much better at the top than this year's. I wouldn't want to give that chance away just to have Ball over one of the guys projected in the Pistons' range at 7. Throwing in 17 wouldn't be enough for me.
   4075. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: October 26, 2020 at 03:46 PM (#5985524)
I mentioned this before and nobody agreed, but if Minnesota is forced to keep pick 1, I really would take Okoro for them. In the abstract I'm talking myself into Killian Hayes being the best player in this draft. I still really don't like Ball, Wiseman, or Edwards.
   4076. aberg Posted: October 26, 2020 at 04:12 PM (#5985532)
I mentioned this before and nobody agreed, but if Minnesota is forced to keep pick 1, I really would take Okoro for them. In the abstract I'm talking myself into Killian Hayes being the best player in this draft. I still really don't like Ball, Wiseman, or Edwards.


I don't disagree, but that just feels way too much like Athony Bennett going #1.
   4077. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: October 26, 2020 at 04:25 PM (#5985533)
As a side note on Anthony Edwards, one thing that kind of jumps out to me from all the pre-draft coverage is that *nobody* is excited about him. Everyone is like, yeah, I guess he has to go in the top five because of X Y and Z, but nobody is like "I personally am excited about him." The only other guy I can remember this about since 2013 (the Bennett draft) is Josh Jackson, and that so far hasn't turned out well. Most of the time at least someone is excited about a top-five-caliber player for some reason. But seriously, I don't think I've read a single draft preview or scouting report where the writer was excited about Edwards.

ETA: Chad Ford just posted the same sentiment on twitter. I swear I posted before him, check the timestamps.
   4078. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: October 26, 2020 at 04:33 PM (#5985535)
As a side note on Anthony Edwards, one thing that kind of jumps out to me from all the pre-draft coverage is that *nobody* is excited about him.

That screams bust to me.
   4079. tshipman Posted: October 26, 2020 at 04:39 PM (#5985539)
I'd be excited about him at like ... 16. I don't honestly know why he's being talked about as a #1 overall. His stats kind of suck and his team didn't win.

We haven't even gotten a combine, so you can't say it's because of his performance at a combine.
   4080. JJ1986 Posted: October 26, 2020 at 04:54 PM (#5985542)
I haven't done much draft prep yet, but I don't like Edwards or Wiseman or Ball. I don't think Haliburton is a starter. Toppin is my age. I like Vassell and Okongwu, but more as like 9-14 talents and Vassell especially seems to have risen too high in some evaluations. I'd probably take Hayes #1, but I'd be desperate to trade down.
   4081. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: October 26, 2020 at 05:10 PM (#5985545)
I've come around a hair on Edwards, but only a bit. The shooting, lousy at Georgia, was quite a bit better at earlier showcases. Still, I don't LIKE any of these top dudes.

Hayes doesn't have a right hand, could be quicker / better at getting separation, and has struggled from deep. This year, that's a high lotto guy.

So Ball. I've had a dumb bias when it comes to him and Lonzo which is that I decided years ago that Lonzo was who he was partly in spite of his dad, while LaMelo had better tools but was more shaped by the madness around the family. Lonzo - plus defender who was an efficient shooter in college despite the bad shot and kind of a head down worker type. LaMelo - scoring 92 in a HS game and having no sense of shot selection and probably unwilling to do the dirty work on defense.
That's not completely fair, beyond the groundless way in which the LaMelo half of that was formed. LaMelo, while not an asset on that end yet, showed signs in Australia from what I've read (and the teeny bit I've seen) that he's willing to put some effort in on D. Like Lonzo, he's a good rebounder and willing to push in transition. Probably a better passer and ballhandler than Lonzo. I don't know what to do with that shot. It has range but might need to get rebuilt and certainly the percentages to date are trash. You don't draft a guy one and think "gotta rebuild his shot and get him to defend consistently". If I have a bad team and job security, I think I'd like to have him around. (Like if I'm Detroit and I'm not trading away next year's pick.) He probably has the highest ceiling in this draft, though. Wiseman and Edwards might be the next two -- even as the floors for Edwards and Ball are depressing.

Feels like no one dislikes Okongwu - it's just that the ceiling might not be there. (That said, some see him and think Bam II, which would be nice. Don't quite see that myself, but he can play.)
   4082. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: October 26, 2020 at 05:25 PM (#5985553)
4. Chicago---should take Ball, but they just took Coby White as their PG, they have Lavine already also.

Considering the new FO and coaching staff, I don't think there's any real reason why they'd be committed to anyone on the current roster if they think they can get someone better. Having said that, I do think the Bulls want to be more competitive next year - why else pay Donovan a shitton of money - so I don't know if they're looking to draft a development guy. Then again, most rumors I've seen lately have them targeting Avdija.
   4083. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: October 26, 2020 at 05:25 PM (#5985554)
Should we do a mock draft here? Can start a new thread and everything for it...
   4084. tshipman Posted: October 26, 2020 at 05:29 PM (#5985555)
Feels like no one dislikes Okongwu - it's just that the ceiling might not be there. (That said, some see him and think Bam II, which would be nice. Don't quite see that myself, but he can play.)


It's just ... how valuable is Richaun Holmes? Because I think Okongwu has near a 100% chance to be at least Richaun Holmes, but I don't think you can draft that in the lottery in current year.

Hayes doesn't have a right hand, could be quicker / better at getting separation, and has struggled from deep. This year, that's a high lotto guy.


I feel like Hayes is the guy benefitting from all the top guys looking really bust-ish. It's easy to talk yourself into him because the flaws are not as obvious and he actually has star upside. I'd be excited taking him at 4 or 5 and very nervous at 1.
   4085. aberg Posted: October 26, 2020 at 05:39 PM (#5985559)
Should we do a mock draft here? Can start a new thread and everything for it...


I'd be up for it.
   4086. smileyy Posted: October 26, 2020 at 05:54 PM (#5985562)
The BBTF NBA mock draft: It's a tradition unlike any other!

Especially me drafting badly as the Kings.
   4087. tshipman Posted: October 26, 2020 at 05:57 PM (#5985564)
Especially me drafting badly as the Kings.


Feel the verisimilitude!
   4088. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: October 26, 2020 at 06:55 PM (#5985575)
Sign me up for the Magic as per usual.
   4089. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: October 26, 2020 at 07:13 PM (#5985577)
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