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Friday, September 22, 2023

OT - NBA Off-Pre-Early Thread for the end of 2023

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, and hopefully some of them have regard for human life. Boom shakalaka.

Hombre Brotani Posted: September 22, 2023 at 04:57 PM | 643 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: nba, off-topic

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1. asinwreck Posted: September 22, 2023 at 05:08 PM (#6142050)

Kicking this off with Dame trade smoke seems like a good start. Woj:

“Those talks have intensified, but still, there’s no trade imminent,” Wojnarowski said.“… You have Portland trying to not only talk to teams who have an interest in Lillard, but lots of teams who’d like to get in on a bigger deal. Can they pick up a couple draft picks to take on some money? Is there a need that they have that they can get in a three- or four-team trade? So Portland is exhausting all of those conversations this week.”

2. Der-K's no Kliph Nesteroff. Posted: September 22, 2023 at 09:01 PM (#6142068)

(thanks hombre)

3. Athletic Supporter's aunt's sorry like Aziz Posted: September 22, 2023 at 09:58 PM (#6142071)

The other thread suspiciously closed just in time, but I need to say it anyway, #### Kevin Porter Jr..

4. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 23, 2023 at 08:47 PM (#6142110)

I was getting worried about this thread.

5. a brief article regarding 57i66135 Posted: September 25, 2023 at 01:34 AM (#6142182)

Austin Krell @NBAKrell
We are one week away from NBA media days. Eight days from training camp.

6. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: September 25, 2023 at 08:50 AM (#6142186)

I love this thread.

Anyway, here are preseason wagers I've made so far. No one should care about my wagers but just an easy way talk in vague generalities about a few teams:

Bucks under 52.5 +110 - I bet against the Bucks all the time, so obviously I don't know what I'm talking about here. But their pythag was below this last year, they lost a proven regular season destroyer coach, and everyone is old.

Rockets over 31.5 -120 - Just added lots of talent, and have enough young talent that if just some of it hits they seem pretty good. Enough competition on the roster that any truly awful young guy is there he won't be gifted huge minutes. Reduced (not eliminated) lottery incentives.

Kings under 43.5 +110 - West is just tough tough tough. They were super healthy last year. A bad bet because line has moved the other way.

Wizards over 25.5 -105 - They just seem to have too many "guys" to be truly, truly horrible. But, another bad bet as line moved the other way. I don't think I weighed "ok, you're not AWFUL but you are still the worst" enough when it comes to lottery gravity.

Lakers under 48.5 -115 - Felt like an easy one, to me. Not sure why everyone's falling all over themselves to love their offseason. Are we sure Rui is good? Are we sure Vincent is good? Line moved the right way on this one, but then they added Wood which probably helps the Lakers at least in the regular season.

Wolves over 43.5 -135 - The computer ratings I used on players just seemed to like the Wolves. I think basically boils down to "41 wins last year, Towns missed a lot of time, top two minutes guys were 21 and 22 years old so bumps to be expected" and landed here.

Knicks over 43.5 -135 - Just so many Guys here, I believe that really helps when it comes to picking up regular season wins. I don't know if there's any playoff ceiling here at all, but that's not what the guess is here.

Cavs #1 seed +900 - Just a flyer here, but think there's uncertainty with the reigning top teams of the East (Dame's not there yet in Miami and they are old, Bucks are old and new coach, Sixers obvious, Celtics made a big change involving bad feet and probably aren't as motivated for the 82-game grind at this phase), and Cleveland seems built to win a lot in the regular season similarly to the Knicks.

7. Der-K's no Kliph Nesteroff. Posted: September 25, 2023 at 11:16 AM (#6142196)

c&p - i think i'm on board with all of this. haven't fully thought through the lakers yet. i don't bet on sports short of "sure things' and i might throw a few bucks at the knicks.

8. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: September 25, 2023 at 02:13 PM (#6142211)

Other question, Laker related I guess, if the Lakers and Clippers met to play a best-of-three series at some neutral location in December, and Kawhi, George, Westbrook, LeBron, Davis, Reaves would all be guaranteed to be healthy (say median injury expectations for rest of the rosters), who'd be favored?

9. Der-K's no Kliph Nesteroff. Posted: September 25, 2023 at 05:11 PM (#6142223)

on the lakers - i think rui is better than stat projections i've seen for him, worse than public perception. i'm not sold on vincent at all. i always think the world is low on wood. (not a good defender or creator which is a big no-no in general, but the offense is sufficiently high volume/efficiency/can pressure the rim and hit from outside that he really helps with depth.)
picking the under on the lakers is almost always the smart move and this year seems like another instance of this. i have a nagging feeling that we're gonna get a healthier lebron with a bit improved defense from last year ... which would make me wary to actually bet here, but any argument that i'd try to make for that would be bad.

i feel like griffin (who i liked a lot as a player) is gonna bust as a coach. ideally i'm wrong.

8 - clips. healthy george and healthy leonard are both better than healthy davis or james at this point.

10. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: September 25, 2023 at 05:18 PM (#6142224)

8 - clips. healthy george and healthy leonard are both better than healthy davis or james at this point.

Existence of unicorns aside, I think this is low on AD.

Rockets over 31.5 -120 - Just added lots of talent, and have enough young talent that if just some of it hits they seem pretty good. Enough competition on the roster that any truly awful young guy is there he won't be gifted huge minutes. Reduced (not eliminated) lottery incentives.

Rockets have huge downside potential. You got a lot of guys who want to take a lot of shots. This bet is probably right, but would keep me up at night. No thanks.

Wizards over 25.5 -105 - They just seem to have too many "guys" to be truly, truly horrible. But, another bad bet as line moved the other way. I don't think I weighed "ok, you're not AWFUL but you are still the worst" enough when it comes to lottery gravity.

The Wizards have worst team in the NBA potential. I would be hammering this under.

Cavs #1 seed +900 - Just a flyer here, but think there's uncertainty with the reigning top teams of the East (Dame's not there yet in Miami and they are old, Bucks are old and new coach, Sixers obvious, Celtics made a big change involving bad feet and probably aren't as motivated for the 82-game grind at this phase), and Cleveland seems built to win a lot in the regular season similarly to the Knicks.

Yup, this is a sneaky great bet.

11. asinwreck Posted: September 25, 2023 at 05:27 PM (#6142226)

James Dolan shuffling senior management to once again give his HR department more stress.

Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn
ESPN Sources: The Knicks promoted Gersson Rosas to Senior VP of Basketball Operations. Rosas — who had been a team consultant for past year — will be among organization’s elder decision-makers now. He was previously Timberwolves’ president, Mavericks’ GM and a Rockets executive.

12. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: September 25, 2023 at 08:47 PM (#6142243)

The Wizards have worst team in the NBA potential. I would be hammering this under.

For what it's worth they do have the lowest number listed, probably pending a Lillard trade then it's probably Portland. I think they're less awful than the typical worst team in the league but I am sure I undersold the gravity of the lottery. Lots of incentive for the Wizards to not be the best Wizards they can be. Oh well!

13. aberg Posted: September 26, 2023 at 03:00 AM (#6142264)

I was getting worried about this thread.

I know we've had these conversations before, but what do people think about a slack channel if this site ever truly goes bottoms up?

14. jmurph Posted: September 26, 2023 at 08:10 AM (#6142266)

The Wizards have worst team in the NBA potential. I would be hammering this under.

I've got my eye on Detroit as the worst team, but the Wizards certainly have a chance!

15. jmurph Posted: September 26, 2023 at 08:12 AM (#6142267)

Hoops book rec: I started Black Ball last night, it's good so far and presumably of interest to the thread. Also eyeballing this one in preparation for the season tipping off.

16. jmurph Posted: September 26, 2023 at 08:21 AM (#6142269)

I know we've had these conversations before, but what do people think about a slack channel if this site ever truly goes bottoms up?

We all gave our email addresses to someone recently, he was either planning some kind of multilevel marketing scheme or collecting them for just that purpose, I forget which. Was it MHS? Who can say.

17. a brief article regarding 57i66135 Posted: September 26, 2023 at 08:44 AM (#6142273)

We all gave our email addresses to someone recently, he was either planning some kind of multilevel marketing scheme or collecting them for just that purpose, I forget which. Was it MHS? Who can say.

your cutco knives are in the mail.

18. PJ Martinez Posted: September 26, 2023 at 09:53 AM (#6142284)

Given how deep my team went in the playoffs last season this can't possibly be true but this feels like the longest offseason of all time.

19. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: September 26, 2023 at 10:05 AM (#6142285)

My team's been in the offseason since before COVID.

20. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 27, 2023 at 08:57 AM (#6142380)

I am ramping up excitement for the Wolves. I think they will have a better defense than last year (I think it was like 10th in per 100 possession last year) and be better on offense.

It will be fascinating watching them, because I htink the variance in outcomes for the season is pretty high.

21. Rally Posted: September 27, 2023 at 02:10 PM (#6142408)

Other question, Laker related I guess, if the Lakers and Clippers met to play a best-of-three series at some neutral location in December, and Kawhi, George, Westbrook, LeBron, Davis, Reaves would all be guaranteed to be healthy (say median injury expectations for rest of the rosters), who'd be favored?

How do you get more neutral than the arena that both teams call home?

22. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: September 27, 2023 at 02:21 PM (#6142410)

Bucks under 52.5 +110 - I bet against the Bucks all the time, so obviously I don't know what I'm talking about here. But their pythag was below this last year, they lost a proven regular season destroyer coach, and everyone is old.

Dame to Milwaukee. Oh, well!

EDIT - And all the tweets I read and podcasts I listened to, I don't think I heard one person say Bucks were sniffing around this. Moral of the story being stop bothering with the Tweets and podcasts. I'll surely not listen, but that's what it's telling me.

@Underdog__NBA
Trade summary:

Bucks get - Damian Lillard
Blazers get - Jrue Holiday, Deandre Ayton, Toumani Camara, 2029 1st-round pick
Suns get - Jusuf Nurkic, Grayson Allen, Nassir Little, Keon Johnson

23. a brief article regarding 57i66135 Posted: September 27, 2023 at 02:26 PM (#6142411)

get #### on, pat riley.

24. a brief article regarding 57i66135 Posted: September 27, 2023 at 02:31 PM (#6142412)

lillard: 152MM guaranteed
ayton: 102MM guaranteed
nurkic: 54MM guaranteed
jrue: 36MM (40MM player option for next year)

25. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: September 27, 2023 at 02:41 PM (#6142415)

Well, I picked a good day to check in on this thread?

26. a brief article regarding 57i66135 Posted: September 27, 2023 at 02:46 PM (#6142418)

rank'em:

tyler herro
kelly oubre
buddy hield
malik monk
clint capela
austin reaves
cameron johnson

27. PJ Martinez Posted: September 27, 2023 at 02:50 PM (#6142423)

Seems like Riley really blew this one? If the Blazers can get much for Holiday, maybe that's better than what Miami could have offered, but it also seems like maybe Miami didn't offer as much as it could have.

28. aberg Posted: September 27, 2023 at 02:54 PM (#6142425)

I was wondering why Milwaukee wasn't more involved because I love the Dame-Giannis fit. They might only have 2-3 good years together, but they're going to be so tough. That defensive backline will cover for Dame really well and his pnr offense immediately corrects their stagnancy issues that came up in some playoff series.

I assume Jrue gets flipped. If that's more than 1 frp, then it's a pretty good return for Portland under the circumstances. I guess the appraisal depends on whether Ayton gets to another level in a more featured role. I'm dubious on that part.

For Phoenix, the on court drop off to Nurk shouldn't be too bad considering they will mainly want him to rebound and set screens. Getting a couple extra rotation pieces was a necessity for the roster.

I kind of like the deal for all 3. Least for Portland but their backs were against the wall.

29. aberg Posted: September 27, 2023 at 02:56 PM (#6142426)

There's no way to know which conversations happened but I assume that if Portland preferred the full boat Miami offer, they probably made one last call, so either they prefer this version or Riley truly didn't think it was worth those assets.

30. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: September 27, 2023 at 03:01 PM (#6142429)

Isn't this just straight up worse than the Miami offer?

edit:
I guess if you evaluate Deandre Ayton as being a good player maybe it's ok?

Lillard goes Milwaukee as part of a 3-team deal with Jrue Holiday, Deandre Ayton, Toumani Camara, a 2029 unprotected MIL 1st, and unprotected MIL swap rights in 2028 and 2030 to Blazers. Phoenix lands Jusuf Nurkic, Grayson Allen, Nassir Little and Keon Johnson.

So you get Jrue, one first, two swaps and Deandre Ayton.

I have no idea how to value Jrue, but it's not a ton. Maybe 1 FRP? He hurts your team to keep. So it's two picks, two swaps plus Ayton. That seems worse than Miami's best case offer of Herro + expiring and 3 picks.

31. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: September 27, 2023 at 03:10 PM (#6142430)

What was the assumption of the Miami offer?

Herro
24 First
26 First
28 First

is that better than

Ayton
Jrue
29 First
28 Swap
30 Swap

I guess it is. I guess a lot depends on what Jrue turns into, and how one values Ayton/Herro, who both seem to be valued differently by different people?

I'd have a bit more hopes in the 28/30 swaps and 29 pick hitting the jackpot than anything that Miami could give me, though. Obviously I don't know the future but I'd have higher hopes for the Bucks being in the basement than the Heat.

32. Athletic Supporter's aunt's sorry like Aziz Posted: September 27, 2023 at 03:17 PM (#6142433)

I don't think Ayton is good, but if he we're good, he'd be a good fit, if that makes sense. So I get it. And I also realize Dame's contract brings down his value. But this still just seems underwhelming to me.

33. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: September 27, 2023 at 03:30 PM (#6142439)

Ayton's better and younger than Nurkic and is a viable regular season player.

26:
*Herro - I'm higher on him than most, but a solid innings eater; close with Reaves, but Herro has a longer track record
*Reaves

*Johnson - perfect 4th or 5th starter on any team in the league
*Capela - past his prime but still a double-double machine

*Oubre - meh

*Hield
*Monk - he and Buddy both have value, but are bad on defense. Buddy's bigger, a better shooter, and does it on higher volume.

34. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: September 27, 2023 at 03:35 PM (#6142442)

I'd have a bit more hopes in the 28/30 swaps and 29 pick hitting the jackpot than anything that Miami could give me, though. Obviously I don't know the future but I'd have higher hopes for the Bucks being in the basement than the Heat.

Swaps on average aren't worth much. You're swapping between like 14 and 17.

But how valuable is a pick swap? To answer that question, we surveyed every first-round swap in NBA history, according to the Pro Sports Transactions archives. We recorded whether the swap was exercised, and if so, how much value the exercising team gained by exchanging picks, using Kevin Pelton’s calculations of pick values as a benchmark.

The results suggest that pick swaps aren’t anywhere near as important as they might seem. Historically, a first-round pick swap has been only about as valuable as the no. 36 overall pick. That’s worth repeating: The average first-round pick swap returns second-round value! And several team executives agree that—within the league itself, and especially in the public view—swaps are overvalued in a trade for a star.

I mean, set aside "Miami Heat" or whatever. You're talking about a team that would have had their best two players over 30.

35. Der-K's no Kliph Nesteroff. Posted: September 27, 2023 at 03:46 PM (#6142446)

Existence of unicorns aside, I think this is low on AD.

Freely admit this is unicorn/unrealistic - but I think that was built into the question?
I have Davis below the other two but not by a ton and he's a more variable performer than most, imo.

Of course, no one cares about that today.

36. jmurph Posted: September 27, 2023 at 03:47 PM (#6142447)

I mean, set aside "Miami Heat" or whatever. You're talking about a team that would have had their best two players over 30.

Totally agree, they were literally like 4.5 minutes from the lottery just this past season.

That seems worse than Miami's best case offer of Herro + expiring and 3 picks.

I wonder if we'll find out this was never actually on the table. Heat-adjacent media completely lost its collective mind ever since the trade demand, so it's hard to know what to believe, but I saw numerous rumors along the way that they were only talking Duncan Robinson, not Herro, and that's a distinctly negative contract.

37. jmurph Posted: September 27, 2023 at 03:51 PM (#6142448)

Credit to the Bucks man, this is a huge swing. Hope this means less ball-handling from Giannis, that's become a little less entertaining the last couple of years to my eye.

Not sure I really understand the point of this for Phoenix? Other than a fetish for transactions, which I respect.

38. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 27, 2023 at 03:52 PM (#6142449)

I don't know about the potential Miami trade, but honestly I kind of like this trade for all three teams - Milwaukee the most.

39. jmurph Posted: September 27, 2023 at 03:52 PM (#6142450)

Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn
The Blazers remain engaged elsewhere on deals and will are expected to immediately engage contending teams on trade talks to move on Jrue Holiday, sources tell ESPN. Portland is committed to its young group of talented guards.

40. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 27, 2023 at 03:53 PM (#6142451)

Phoenix gets away from Ayton (there were rumblings of unhappiness on both sides) and gets more depth.

41. jmurph Posted: September 27, 2023 at 03:54 PM (#6142452)

Yaya Dubin @JADubin5
The Blazers owe it to Jrue to take the Heat's offer after all he's done for them over the last few hours.

42. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: September 27, 2023 at 03:58 PM (#6142454)

In trades like these I tend to give the "selling" team, so Portland here, the benefit of the doubt in that their path seems relatively straight-forward. Maybe that's too generous of me, but it seems easy to "blow it up and just get the most future value you can" and I assume most front offices are reasonably ok at that part.

43. aberg Posted: September 27, 2023 at 04:01 PM (#6142455)

There are much worse ways to start a rebuild than with Henderson, Simons, Sharpe, Ayton and net positive draft assets.

44. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: September 27, 2023 at 04:06 PM (#6142457)

Not sure I really understand the point of this for Phoenix? Other than a fetish for transactions, which I respect.

It saves a ####-ton of money. Nurkic makes 16 million next season, Ayton makes 30. I assume you can move on from Grayson Allen if you want.

I mean, maybe it's rude to say this, but Nurkic is actually also a better basketball player, although he is injured all the time now.

45. aberg Posted: September 27, 2023 at 04:25 PM (#6142463)

I agree that Nurkic is better, and even the theoretical ways Ayton could be better (various ways of scoring more efficiently) weren't going to show up on that roster. The health factor is real, though.

46. Der-K's no Kliph Nesteroff. Posted: September 27, 2023 at 04:36 PM (#6142472)

Nurkic was not better last year (EPM disagrees with me) - and I've always liked Nurkic and disliked Ayton. Need to know how healthy Nurkic is going forward.

I haven't finished thinking through the Lillard deal yet but I'll note: DARKO has Jrue with a higher BPM than Dame. (EPM, for one, has a big gap in Lillard's favor -- it had Lillard as the #3 per minute guy in the NBA last year, Jrue 22nd.)

47. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: September 27, 2023 at 04:46 PM (#6142474)

I don't really think that the Lillard trade for the Bucks is about the regular season. It's more about how predictable and stale the Bucks get in the half court in the playoffs.

So the question is, does the increased dynamism on offense and better organization make up for the decreased defensive versatility and having to do a bunch of stuff on that end.

It's not clear to me in advance, I guess.

Edit: even if you think Ayton was better last year, I think the point would be that it was pretty close.

48. jmurph Posted: September 27, 2023 at 05:59 PM (#6142485)

Oh I think Ayton is quite a bit better than Nurkic and likely to stay that way. I think Ayton is pretty good, just shouldn’t have been the number one pick and is probably overpaid.

49. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: September 27, 2023 at 06:30 PM (#6142492)

I get wanting to get rid of Ayton but I'd worry Nurkic post-injury is too washed defensively for this to make sense. Maybe there simply isn't a rebuilding team interested in Ayton with a better center to offer but I wouldn't do this as Suns unless I have some legit info Nurkic can move better.

50. asinwreck Posted: September 27, 2023 at 06:55 PM (#6142504)

The pick-and-roll in Milwaukee will be fun to watch. Where are the Blazers trading Jrue?

51. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: September 27, 2023 at 07:34 PM (#6142508)

Where are the Blazers trading Jrue?

It's kind of the same problem with Dame, but heightened because Jrue isn't as good. Most contenders already have a guy at that spot. Possible landing spots:

Golden State -- sort of fits in to their system, could be a good fit with CP's expiring deal?
Miami -- Hard to see this one, given the apparent bad blood.
Lakers -- Can't work until December 15, only one pick, but it would be potentially a good one.
Pelicans -- Ironic given all the givens, but one of the picks they got for him originally could go to Portland. Pretty decent upgrade over their existing guys.
76ers -- Something around Harden, but why do that?
Brooklyn -- I don't know why Brooklyn wants to get better, but they seem to want that.
Toronto -- seems like a bad idea, but allegedly they wanted Dame.

52. DCA Posted: September 27, 2023 at 09:07 PM (#6142521)

I get this for the Suns. But to me it mostly just drives home how dumb the Beal acquisition was. Jrue is better and cheaper than Beal, and a much better fit.

Best fit for Holiday is the Nets IMO.

53. thok Posted: September 27, 2023 at 09:27 PM (#6142523)

I assume Grayson Allen's value for Phoenix is drawing boos away from Kevin Durant.

54. PJ Martinez Posted: September 27, 2023 at 10:12 PM (#6142525)

Jrue to Philly, Harden to Clippers, picks (plus Batum, Morris, and Covington, say) to Portland is pretty straightforward, no?

55. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: September 27, 2023 at 10:29 PM (#6142528)

Jrue to Philly, Harden to Clippers, picks (plus Batum, Morris, and Covington, say) to Portland is pretty straightforward, no?

I'm not sure how many picks the Clippers can even move, but I do know one thing: Terance Mann is UNTOUCHABLE in the deal.

56. a brief article regarding 57i66135 Posted: September 27, 2023 at 10:49 PM (#6142531)

Jrue to Philly, Harden to Clippers, picks (plus Batum, Morris, and Covington, say) to Portland is pretty straightforward, no?

fwiw:

the sixers are pretty serious about going into this summer with at least 1 max contract slot open. jrue might be good enough for morey to budge on that, but i wouldn't be too surprised if morey doesn't rate him that way.

57. jmurph Posted: September 28, 2023 at 08:23 AM (#6142549)

I'd be pretty surprised if Daryl Morey of all people cared for a second about clearing a max contract slot.

58. aberg Posted: September 28, 2023 at 10:34 AM (#6142559)

What if this existing trade gets expanded to re-route Jrue to Philly, Harden to the Clippers, and Mann and a FRP (from LAC) to Portland?

59. DCA Posted: September 28, 2023 at 11:37 AM (#6142566)

Swapping Harden for Jrue doesn't affect Philly's cap space next year, does it? Unless he opts in, but Holiday for 1/$39m is (a) positive value, and (b) easily moveable.

60. jmurph Posted: September 28, 2023 at 11:52 AM (#6142573)

Doesn't Jrue make way more sense for the Clippers than Harden?

61. Der-K's no Kliph Nesteroff. Posted: September 28, 2023 at 12:33 PM (#6142579)

way more sense to me
the clippers could use more of a proper playmaker but f that, jrue is a better fit for this team's ceiling and that's what you build for if you're not looking at a rebuild

62. DCA Posted: September 28, 2023 at 02:18 PM (#6142595)

Doesn't Jrue make way more sense for the Clippers than Harden?

What makes the most sense for the Clippers is whatever keeps George and Kawhi around after this season.

Also - I think fit is somewhat overrated - give me good players and good coaches and we'll make it work - and Harden is still a better player than Jrue (if he wants to be).

63. jmurph Posted: September 28, 2023 at 03:04 PM (#6142602)

What makes the most sense for the Clippers is whatever keeps George and Kawhi around after this season.

Are we sure Kawhi's next contract is a desirable one?

64. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: September 28, 2023 at 03:08 PM (#6142603)

There hasn't been an extension for Kawhi or PG, and pretty much total radio silence on the topic.

That kind of makes me wonder what is going on there, and if they really want to give up draft picks for Jrue or Harden.

65. DCA Posted: September 28, 2023 at 03:25 PM (#6142606)

Are we sure Kawhi's next contract is a desirable one?

For the Clippers, yes. They don't get max money to spend on somebody else if Kawhi leaves. And they have extra reason to want to be good when LeBron moves on from the Lakers and there's an opportunity to be THE LA team.

For teams with other options to spend that money, probably not.

66. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: September 28, 2023 at 06:56 PM (#6142655)

I want a deal where Jrue ends up in Philly, Harden in Miami, and picks to Portland. But that's mostly to see Riley and Butler lose their minds watching Harden on the Heat.

67. aberg Posted: September 29, 2023 at 02:23 AM (#6142706)

Doesn't Jrue make way more sense for the Clippers than Harden?

What makes the most sense for the Clippers is whatever keeps George and Kawhi around after this season.

Yes, I agree that Jrue is probably a better fit with LAC but given the persistent rumors connecting them to Harden all summer, I figured their co-GMs (Kawhi and PG) must prefer him. Same version of the trade with Jrue in LAC makes sense to me, too.

68. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: September 30, 2023 at 11:19 AM (#6142844)

Clippers sign Josh Primo to a 2-way, he is suspended for 5 games.

Not a move I would make.

69. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: October 01, 2023 at 12:02 PM (#6142970)

Jrue to the Celtics.

Brogdon, Rob Williams and two firsts (one protected GSW pick, one unprotected 2029 Boston pick) for Jrue.

70. a brief article regarding 57i66135 Posted: October 01, 2023 at 12:10 PM (#6142971)

Jrue to the Celtics.

things you hate to see:

it

71. asinwreck Posted: October 01, 2023 at 12:14 PM (#6142974)

Portland's going to be an interesting team, and I am curious to see how well Ayton and Williams mesh in the frontcourt.

72. JJ1986 Posted: October 01, 2023 at 12:32 PM (#6142976)

The Celtics sure like to shuffle their roster without changing their talent level.

73. Athletic Supporter's aunt's sorry like Aziz Posted: October 01, 2023 at 12:35 PM (#6142978)

Man, really nice job by the Blazers here, and I think they should be able to get something for Brogdon, right?

I'm not really sure you play Timelord and Ayton together, but always good to have more options, and they're both flippable.

74. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: October 01, 2023 at 12:48 PM (#6142980)

The Celtics sure like to shuffle their roster without changing their talent level.

This is kind of where I'm at. The Celtics biggest issue was that in playoff series, their offense became a bit predictable and stale, and their defensive system struggled to match up with certain players.

The best case:
From their team that played the Heat and lost, you're upgrading Marcus Smart to Jrue and you're upgrading (?) Rob Williams to Porzingis. You lost Brogdon and Grant Williams. Those guys were the 6 and 8 guys in your rotation, so it's a kind of classic depth for frontline starter trade.

The worst case:
You now have only one defensive identity in the playoffs, you've traded away everyone who was an above average passer for their position, and you are really, really reliant on the health of Porzingis.

75. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: October 01, 2023 at 01:00 PM (#6142982)

From the Blazers' side:

The total trade for Dame ends up being something like:

Milwaukee 2029
Boston 2029
Golden State 2024 (protected)
Two Milwaukee pick swaps
Ayton
Robert Williams
Malcolm Brogdon (who appears to effectively have negative value currently btw)
Random flotsam

I think how you feel about this depends a lot on how you think about Deandre Ayton. If you think Ayton has all-star potential, then you got a young big that fits well with your other contending pieces, a bunch of future assets for when you're ready to contend, and some guys that you can try to move later if you can rehab their value. Even beyond Ayton, if Scoot (or I suppose Sharpe) is a top 5 player in the NBA in 5 years, then this works. You get a bunch of lottery tickets, and you get extra picks to use to build around Scoot.

If Scoot or Shadeon Sharpe are just all-NBA level, then you kind of didn't get there.

Side note, I was wrong, and this Milwaukee deal did end up being just markedly superior to Miami's best potential offer.

76. DCA Posted: October 01, 2023 at 01:19 PM (#6142988)

Yeah this whole series is a great deal for Portland. The key here is that Jrue had more trade value than Dame (not because he's better - he's not - and not even because he's cheaper - he is - but simply because there were so many more potential suitors).

77. DCA Posted: October 01, 2023 at 01:24 PM (#6142989)

Man, really nice job by the Blazers here, and I think they should be able to get something for Brogdon, right?

I think they hold Brogdon until he's healthy, if he can play at his established level he should return value at the trade deadline, but probably not now.

Grant is also likely on the move once he's able to be traded, probably for picks + bad money. Although I think he's also a good floor raiser while they sort through the kids (find out who can play, and growing pains for those who can).

I'm guessing they want to keep Simons but he's the guy making real money that I'd be trying to ditch at the first good opportunity.

78. jmurph Posted: October 01, 2023 at 01:39 PM (#6142991)

Agree with others that Portland absolutely killed it, never thought they could pull all this off. If Brogdon is healthy, worse case he's fetching some seconds or something later in the season. And Rob or Ayton will get you additional picks if they eventually move off of one of them.

As a Celtics fan... I don't know. Jrue is very good. Rob Williams is very good (though really struggles to stay healthy). Marcus Smart is very good. No one seems to talk about his actual basketball playing, just his health and contract, but Brogdon is also good! Grant is not very good honestly, I won't miss his basketball playing at all, but sure he's a rotation player. I've never liked Porzingis, can't evaluate him properly. I'm really just not sure.

79. jmurph Posted: October 01, 2023 at 01:41 PM (#6142992)

Also I know many people have already covered this but Miami media and adjacent media and their fan base absolutely needs a long timeout, they fully embarrassed themselves over the last couple months.

80. jmurph Posted: October 01, 2023 at 01:44 PM (#6142993)

A half-formed Stevens as GM thought: for a guy who successfully coached a lot of recent draft picks, Brad Stevens seems to really not value draft picks as anything other than trade fodder!

81. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: October 01, 2023 at 01:53 PM (#6142994)

I've never liked Porzingis, can't evaluate him properly. I'm really just not sure.

The thing with Porzingis is that he's only ever been good as the best player on a bad team. If you believe that is just accidental/circumstantial, then your only real concern is the injury history. If you think the player in Dallas is coming over, then it's not great.

82. asinwreck Posted: October 01, 2023 at 02:00 PM (#6142995)

Milwaukee just signed Cam Payne to back up Dame. Makes all kinds of sense.

83. jmurph Posted: October 01, 2023 at 02:00 PM (#6142996)

Right, the optimistic Porzingis take is first that he's somehow healthy now, and second that as the 3rd or 4th option on offense he feasts on open jump shots.

Jrue is really good, I don't want to minimize that part. I wish he was like 20% better as a passer, just thinking through what the team looks like. It's also a really good group of two-way players with practically no depth.

84. Fourth True Outcome Posted: October 01, 2023 at 02:00 PM (#6142997)

A half-formed Stevens as GM thought: for a guy who successfully coached a lot of recent draft picks, Brad Stevens seems to really not value draft picks as anything other than trade fodder!

He's collected a mess of second round picks, but you're absolutely right about first rounders.

My Cs fan take more broadly here is that I think how this plays out will hinge on the health of both Robert Williams and Porzingis moving forward. If he's right, Porzingis provides a dimension to the offense that the team painfully lacked in beating zone and switch-heavy defenses last season. If Williams is totally healthy again, he's a top-level impact defender and rim defender. If the Cs are healthy this season their top 6/7 players are good enough that they will probably have nothing to regret, but if Porzingis's foot explodes and Timelord is volleyball spiking shots out West, they may well regret it. It will also be very interesting to see how they handle Jrue's contract going forward and if they try to operate above the second apron. They also have the benefit of not seeing Jrue go to any of their conference competitors. That's not a good reason to do the deal, but it is a pleasant side effect.

Agree with everyone else that this was some pretty good work for Portland. They refused to be forced into the trade Dame's team hamfistedly attempted to lock them into and got an awful lot of capital in the process.

85. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: October 01, 2023 at 02:14 PM (#6142999)

First rounders are arguably overvalued right now in the NBA.

In particular, there's a huge difference between first round picks. A top 10 pick is roughly 3 times as valuable as a late first, but they're both treated as "a first".

86. jmurph Posted: October 01, 2023 at 02:35 PM (#6143001)

So for the Bucks: let's ignore draft stuff, how much better are they this season with Lillard instead of Jrue/Allen?

(I think the answer is a lot better, or at least a lot better in the specific thing they were lacking, but I've seen some skeptical takes on NBA twitter.)

87. Fourth True Outcome Posted: October 01, 2023 at 02:41 PM (#6143003)

I'm somewhat on board with the skeptical takes. I think they're better, but there is risk gutting the team's perimeter defense and depth in exchange for getting the Dame/Giannis PnR. I think it puts a lot of pressure on Middleton and Giannis to defend on the perimeter, and Middleton and Lopez to stay healthy. I think they're better and it's a gamble worth taking, but one big injury could derail things for them, and the drop coverage they've relied on isn't going to work the same with Dame instead of Jrue. If Middleton can't be close to where he was defensively they're going to be pretty exploitable. They'll score enough that may not be a problem, but we shall see.

88. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: October 01, 2023 at 03:00 PM (#6143009)

So for the Bucks: let's ignore draft stuff, how much better are they this season with Lillard instead of Jrue/Allen?

I think it makes them a lot better, particularly in the Eastern Conference.

I heard this on a podcast, and I think I agree with it strongly. Lillard gives you an excellent offense, and then he dies on every screen on defense. In the West, that's a big issue against Steph Curry, Luka Doncic and Jamal Murray. In the East, who can really punish Lillard for not being able to switch? Maybe Jimmy Butler?

The move gives them significantly *better* matchups against the East, while perhaps making them slightly worse against an eventual Finals opponent. I think that trade off makes it worthwhile.

89. Der-K's no Kliph Nesteroff. Posted: October 01, 2023 at 04:05 PM (#6143018)

payne to milwaukee is smart
i like the portland/boston deal for portland, like everybody else.

The best case:
From their team that played the Heat and lost, you're upgrading Marcus Smart to Jrue and you're upgrading (?) Rob Williams to Porzingis. You lost Brogdon and Grant Williams. Those guys were the 6 and 8 guys in your rotation, so it's a kind of classic depth for frontline starter trade.

The worst case:
You now have only one defensive identity in the playoffs, you've traded away everyone who was an above average passer for their position, and you are really, really reliant on the health of Porzingis.

Think I like this for Boston more than tship, but agree about the shape of what they did. Williams to Porzingis is an net upgrade, especially in the regular season. I've heard podcasters talk about his improved passing over the last year or so getting slept on - that better be true.

Also, I'm really hoping that Jaylen ran into some rough luck from distance last year - they've got a lot of people who are a threat from deep but the rotation lacks knockdown shooters.
Looking at expected 3pt% numbers on darko.ie - all of the big five shoot threes at reasonably high volume with an expected percentage between .343 (Jaylen) and .359 (White). (Tatum .354, Jrue .353, Porzingis .350). None of those E(3pt%) are in the top 75 of the league (Horford and Hauser are, however). Three point shooting will not be a problem for this team (they should shoot at high volume and solid efficiency), but that's a different kind of weapon than they've had at times in the recent past - even accounting from the synergys of their new higher usage in a vacuum players.
-----

Oh yeah, also: #### Kevin Porter Jr.

90. kcgard2 Posted: October 01, 2023 at 07:09 PM (#6143051)

So for the Bucks: let's ignore draft stuff, how much better are they this season with Lillard instead of Jrue/Allen?

A little better. No reason to repeat a lot of what FTO said.

91. PJ Martinez Posted: October 01, 2023 at 09:07 PM (#6143057)

Bucks-Celtics should be a pretty fun matchup this year, not least because Milwaukee's shiny new star will likely be guarded for the most part by the guy they traded for him. Both teams are top-heavy, with a core of familiar faces, and both have pushed their chips in to win a title now. Also, their principal rivals from last year have had pretty terrible offseasons. (Sports can be funny, and predicting the future is foolish, but if I had to guess now I'd say that Cleveland is the team most likely to challenge Milwaukee and Boston in the East. Granted, there is a wide range of possible outcomes with the Cavs.)

92. nick swisher hygiene Posted: October 01, 2023 at 09:40 PM (#6143058)

so this is 50% trolling Boston fans, but 50% serious: what did I miss that turned Timelord from the best young defensive big in the NBA to a trade throwin?

93. PJ Martinez Posted: October 01, 2023 at 09:45 PM (#6143059)

Injuries?

Edit: I absolutely love Robert Williams and hate to see him go and hope he bounces back and has a great career. But the flashes of his pre-surgery form (i.e., play equal to that stretch in the second half of Udoka's one season) have been rare. Also worth noting that his games played log look likes this: 32, 29, 52, 61, 35 (61 is that year with Udoka).

Second edit: At his healthiest, Williams is clearly better than Ayton, and they're less than a year apart in age.

94. nick swisher hygiene Posted: October 01, 2023 at 09:45 PM (#6143060)

57i66135, in the NBA rpg, you are Sixers GM, and all this #### has just gone down in the Eastern Conference--what's your move?

95. a brief article regarding 57i66135 Posted: October 01, 2023 at 10:04 PM (#6143062)

so this is 50% trolling Boston fans, but 50% serious: what did I miss that turned Timelord from the best young defensive big in the NBA to a trade throwin?

Injuries?

Edit: I absolutely love Robert Williams and hate to see him go and hope he bounces back and has a great career. But the flashes of his pre-surgery form (i.e., play equal to that stretch in the second half of Udoka's one season) have been rare. Also worth noting that his games played log look likes this: 32, 29, 52, 61, 35 (61 is that year with Udoka).

Second edit: At his healthiest, Williams is clearly better than Ayton, and they're less than a year apart in age.

yeah. given that it's the celtics, he probably has some undisclosed medical issues that are about to derail his career.

96. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: October 01, 2023 at 10:11 PM (#6143063)

57i66135, in the NBA rpg, you are Sixers GM, and all this #### has just gone down in the Eastern Conference--what's your move?

Well, I mean, the Sixers already have Pat Beverly and Mo Bamba signed to deals, so I think they're pretty much set.

97. a brief article regarding 57i66135 Posted: October 01, 2023 at 10:14 PM (#6143064)

57i66135, in the NBA rpg, you are Sixers GM, and all this #### has just gone down in the Eastern Conference--what's your move?

the same as it was at the start of the offseason:

put the ball in tyrese maxey's hands, and hope he turns into a superstar.

on the bright side, the sixers might actually have more depth than you'd think. oubre, melton and paul reed are good younger pieces; the aging carcasses of patbev, montrezl, pj tucker, danny green and danuel house are lurching around.

98. a brief article regarding 57i66135 Posted: October 01, 2023 at 10:16 PM (#6143065)

Well, I mean, the Sixers already have Pat Beverly and Mo Bamba signed to deals, so I think they're pretty much set.

coulda/woulda/shoulda had bol bol.

99. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: October 01, 2023 at 10:35 PM (#6143067)

A half-formed Stevens as GM thought: for a guy who successfully coached a lot of recent draft picks, Brad Stevens seems to really not value draft picks as anything other than trade fodder!

If people think the Celtics need better players, and they need them soon, then what other way is there to get them than trading picks?

100. a brief article regarding 57i66135 Posted: October 01, 2023 at 11:30 PM (#6143075)

If people think the Celtics need better players, and they need them soon, then what other way is there to get them than trading picks?

hire their parents?

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