Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Sunday, June 07, 2020

OT – NBA Revival Thread 2020

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, and hopefully all of them survive these next few weeks.

BBTF Corona Draft Tournament Voting Page

BBTF Corona Tournament Brackets

BBTF Corona Draft and Rosters Page

Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 07, 2020 at 04:08 PM | 465 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nba, off-topic

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 1 of 5 pages  1 2 3 >  Last ›
   1. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: June 07, 2020 at 05:49 PM (#5955929)
Interesting aspect of the neutral-floor setup I hadn't recognized before: it's a major benefit to the Clippers in the event of an all-LA playoff matchup. They were staring at the prospect of a hostile crowd for every game or at best 4 hostile crowds and 3 neutral ones. Instead now their "home court advantage" is no worse than anyone else's.
   2. John Northey Posted: June 07, 2020 at 06:37 PM (#5955931)
As a person near Toronto, it sucks for the Raptors as they had games left vs some of the dregs of the league and now will have to play better ones before the seeding is done. Still with a 3 game lead on the Celtics for 2nd they should be OK in theory. Miami, Indiana, and Philly are theoretically able to catch them but very unlikely.

At least one team sport has it figured out. I think the NHL is close but lord knows when MLB will get its act together.
   3. tshipman Posted: June 07, 2020 at 06:43 PM (#5955933)
As a person near Toronto, it sucks for the Raptors as they had games left vs some of the dregs of the league and now will have to play better ones before the seeding is done. Still with a 3 game lead on the Celtics for 2nd they should be OK in theory. Miami, Indiana, and Philly are theoretically able to catch them but very unlikely.


There's absolutely no difference between the 2 and the 3 this year. The only thing you want to avoid is the 4 seed. They have a 5 game lead on Miami, so there's next to zero chance they end up as the 4.
   4. Booey Posted: June 07, 2020 at 06:48 PM (#5955935)
The playoffs are all about match ups now, since playing for HC no longer means anything. There's no difference between finishing 3rd or finishing 6th.

Honestly, as long as the Rockets don't work their way up to 3rd, 6th is probably the best spot for the Jazz.

Edit: similar to what tship said about the EC.
   5. SoSH U at work Posted: June 07, 2020 at 06:51 PM (#5955936)

The playoffs are all about match ups now, since playing for HC no longer means anything. There's no difference between finishing 3rd or finishing 6th.


Do you expect to see tanking in the final few games?
   6. Booey Posted: June 07, 2020 at 07:00 PM (#5955937)
#5 - Honestly, yeah. They'll call it "load management" or "preparing for the playoffs" (as if 4.5 months off didn't already do that), but I absolutely do expect to see teams engaging in shenanigans to try and ensure favorable match ups.
   7. spivey Posted: June 07, 2020 at 07:16 PM (#5955939)
And I do agree that Draymond probably isn't a 38% 3 point shooter. But I also don't think MJ and Payton are as poor of 3 point shooters as the board (specifically TShip) is acting. We really don't think that MJ/Payton couldn't have shot 3's decently with modern NBA training?

It's hard to say. I think we can sometimes make too many assumptions on players developing their games. Sometimes the greats were all-time greats heavily because of their era. I think about this with Duncan and Kobe as we've had some discussions about Duncan recently. Both would be great players in any era. But their ability to score at a good but not incredible efficiency - I'm not sure we should just assume they'd be more efficient in today's world. They maybe are just like the 10th best players in the leagues rather than the 2nd or 3rd best, and our view of their place in history is different.

We think about the guys who adapted (Brook Lopez, Vince Carter), but there's plenty who don't or haven't.
   8. JJ1986 Posted: June 07, 2020 at 07:21 PM (#5955942)
Edit: Nvm
   9. Booey Posted: June 07, 2020 at 07:34 PM (#5955944)
I think assuming guys who played without a 3-pt line like West or Barry could hit them in this tournament is completely different than assuming Jordan or Payton could do it if they wanted to (hell, it's almost an Ichiro meme!). MJ and Glove played their entire careers with the 3-pt line and still never bothered mastering it. That's on them, IMO. They had plenty of contemporaries in this tourney like Reggie, Schrempf, Stockton, Hornacek, Mullin, Ellis, Porter, etc who showed that anyone interested in developing a 3-pt game was perfectly capable of doing it.
   10. tshipman Posted: June 07, 2020 at 07:55 PM (#5955946)
I think about this with Duncan and Kobe as we've had some discussions about Duncan recently. Both would be great players in any era. But their ability to score at a good but not incredible efficiency - I'm not sure we should just assume they'd be more efficient in today's world.


I can kinda see both sides to this argument.
On the one hand, what we've seen is that a spaced floor benefits these players a ton.
Kobe had one of his highest efficiency years in 2013 with Mike D'Antoni as coach.
Duncan shot a higher percentage from the field in the second half of his career when he played C, as opposed to the first half of his career when he played PF.

On the other hand, there really was a formula for winning with Kobe and it started with an all time big that he could play off of.
Duncan was at his best when the league tended towards his defense being more valuable than when his offense was.
   11. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: June 07, 2020 at 08:16 PM (#5955947)
Joe Mussatto @joe_mussatto
"We don’t have any idea what this is going to be like." Sam Presti on the NBA's restart plan: oklahoman.com/article/566409…

   12. tshipman Posted: June 07, 2020 at 08:49 PM (#5955950)
We think about the guys who adapted (Brook Lopez, Vince Carter), but there's plenty who don't or haven't.


I think this is the really important point that people should take more into account.

Kobe *tried* to re-invent himself after the Curry 2015 season. He couldn't do it. Wade tried to hit more 3s. Shawn Marion never managed to clean up his mechanics.
   13. NJ in NY (Now with two kids!) Posted: June 07, 2020 at 09:04 PM (#5955951)
Agree completely. I know Simmons is an idiot, but Lowe is a smart guy and I'm shocked at the amount of times he (and other smart guys) have made the of course Jordan would be able to shoot 3s because Jordan argument.
   14. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: June 07, 2020 at 09:55 PM (#5955956)
Kobe *tried* to re-invent himself after the Curry 2015 season. He couldn't do it.


At age 36 post-blown Achilles, he couldn't really do much of anything.

I know Simmons is an idiot, but Lowe is a smart guy and I'm shocked at the amount of times he (and other smart guys) have made the of course Jordan would be able to shoot 3s because Jordan argument.


Then I guess I'm an idiot. I am very comfortable saying that if Jordan had come out of UNC in 2010, he would have spent this past decade as a competent 3P shooter.

Restart: I can see all the reasons that they are doing it, but I am not really into it.



   15. spivey Posted: June 07, 2020 at 10:36 PM (#5955962)
What's competent? Jordan shot 33% from 3, and shot 30% from 3 before his first retirement. That's "competent", if not good. What kind of credit should we be giving him exactly?

For the record, Jordan's 3pt% was below average for his career. Now that we have these beautiful league adjusted stats on basketball-reference, we can see during Jordan's career the league 3pt% was .340, and he was .327. He was below average compared to his peers (about average if you cut out the Washington years and the first 4 years where his game was a bit more raw). His 3pt rate was also well below average compared to his peers pretty much over his entire career.
   16. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: June 07, 2020 at 10:41 PM (#5955964)
What's competent?


I think of it as "average." I think he would have been around 35% in the scenario I described.
   17. tshipman Posted: June 07, 2020 at 11:49 PM (#5955971)
Jordan has the same problem that LeBron has, which is that they are both too efficient from 2 to make a 3p shot as valuable.

Because Jordan in his prime is at about 1.09 points per 2, he needs to average 36% from 3 to make the 3 worth considering before FTs are even factored in.


Having a 3p shot would help him be a better complement to another player, but again, like LeBron, other players fit in around Jordan, not vice versa.
   18. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: June 08, 2020 at 12:04 AM (#5955975)
Winter's writeup isn't up yet. Hombre, how should we proceed? I see 5 votes already in.
   19. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 08, 2020 at 06:18 AM (#5955993)
We need more time on this. Let's go ahead and push JTSports vs Winter's Night match-up to Tuesday.
   20. KronicFatigue Posted: June 08, 2020 at 08:24 AM (#5956004)
Jordan has the same problem that LeBron has, which is that they are both too efficient from 2 to make a 3p shot as valuable.


Is there anything to be said that having a 3pt shot 1) gives you more opportunities to conserve energy on offense and/or 2) increases your efficiency at 2pters b/c defenses are stretched? Sorry, I don't fully understand advanced stats to know if this has been addressed.
   21. jmurph Posted: June 08, 2020 at 08:59 AM (#5956012)
I guess I don't see a ton of disagreement on Jordan's potential adjustment to the modern era. Something like LeBron? Some years above average, some below, generally approaching competent? I'm not sure I've seen anyone suggest he'd be taking 10-15 a game like Curry and Harden or hitting them at 40% consistently.

One thing I notice just now scrolling through Jordan's numbers are that his 4 best years by 3pt % are also the 4 years he took the most 3s per game. Seems instructive, though we're still talking a relatively small number of attempts.
   22. DCA Posted: June 08, 2020 at 09:47 AM (#5956027)
My mental process for evaluating 3 pt shooting is that if a guy has varying levels of attempts, I use his high-attempt seasons to judge his shooting ability and ignore the low-attempt seasons, which likely have a disproportional number of heaves or end of shot clock gotta-get-it-up shots.

The guy this affects for me is Detlef Schrempf, who always had range but shot 32% on about 1/2 an attempt per game his first 9 seasons, and upped that to 42% on 2 attempts per game for the last 7 seasons. I think the latter is clearly a better assessment of his shooting ability (though partially inflated by the short line - 43% from the short line, vs 41% from the regular line).
   23. DCA Posted: June 08, 2020 at 10:09 AM (#5956034)
Posting my writeup vs hombre. Not sure when I'll be back on a real computer again, so even though the previous game got pushed back I'm posting this now anyway so I don't have to do it on my phone.

This match is kind of like playing a mirror. Both teams are built around a dominant center, an elite two-way pass-first point guard, a pair of slashers and a rebounding/scoring PF. Two centers on each bench to play even bigger. Biggest differences are that I get good outside shooting from my 4 (Love) and he gets it from his 3 (Barry), and his bench has a second pure point guard (Lowry) while mine has an extra shooter/point forward (Schrempf).

That said, I'm going to win and here's why:

(1) My players are better, by stats and especially by contemporary assessment
(2) I shoot, pass, and defend better
(3) If he goes big I can match him
(4) The voting deadline is my wife's birthday, so don't ruin it for her

Lineup and baseline minutes


PG John Stockton 94-95 (36)
SG Dwyane Wade 08-09 (36)
SF Julius Erving 75-76 (30)
PF Kevin Love 13-14 (30)
C Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 71-72 (36)

Doug Christie 02-03 (24)
Detlef Schrempf 94-95 (18)
Connie Hawkins 67-68 (18)
Joakim Noah 13-14 (6)
George Mikan 50-51 (6)

WS/48 (starters then bench)

me: .340/.262/.245/.233/.232/ /.413/.273/.215/.190/.157
him .325/.292/.253/.223/.188/ /.232/.223/.203/.196/.184

BPM

me: --/10.6/10.6/9.0/8.9/ /--/--/5.3/4.4/3.2
him: --/11.0/7.4/6.2/4.9/ /8.7/5.8/5.2/4.8/3.5

VORP

me: --/10.3/9.6/7.9/7.7/ /--/--/5.2/4.7/3.6
him: --/9.9/7.5/6.0/5.7/ /7.4/5.7/5.2/3.7/2.4

For BPM/VORP we are both missing our starting centers; I'm also missing Mikan and Hawkins from the bench, given that these are the best ever NBA and ABA full seasons by WS/48, they are probably ~10 or better by BPM/VORP.

Contemporary recognition


me: 4 mvps, 3 more first team all-league, 2 second/third team
him: 0 mvps, 4 first team all-NBA, 5 second/third team

me: 1 DPoY, 2 more first team all-D, 2 second team
him: 1 first team all-D, 1 second team

Aggregate stats per 100 possessions weighted by usage


me

53% on 85 two-point attempts
38% on 23 three-pt attempts
78% on 45 free throws

14 O-Reb
41 D-Reb
55 Rebounds
41 Assists
12 Steals
8 Blocks

him

53% on 101 two-point attempts
35% on 20 three-pt attempts
76% on 48 free throws

16 O-Reb
42 D-Reb
58 Rebounds
37 Assists
11 Steals
6 Blocks

Estimated his minutes distribution, but there are no significant changes unless Wilt plays less than 36. Stocks estimated for oldsters (importantly, I assumed identical rates for Kareem and Wilt). For 3 point attempts, I doubled actual attempts for Stockton, Christie, Detlef, and Erving from my team. Stockton/Detlef/Hill get a 10% rate reduction due to the short line. I didn't increase attempts for anyone on his team, but on merit Barkley/Drexler would be most likely to get an increase, and they aren't very good from deep. I played around with this, and it ends up 35% no matter how I treat his pre-2010 shooters. I assumed that Barry would shoot that same 35% from deep on 6 attempts/game and that his overall FG, FT, and attempts were unchanged (so his efficiency gets a good deal better).

I shoot better from 3 and from the line, have a big edge in assists and blocks and smaller edge in steals. He has a rebounding edge but that disappears entirely if Wilt's rebounding is correctly treated as an artifact of his time and is timelined to any other decade.

Offensive Game Plan (when I have the ball)


We are going to run as much as possible. Off rebounds (Kareem and Love are elite defensive rebounders and outlet passers) and stocks (everyone except Love is elite in one or both). Stockton, Wade, and Erving are noted fast break terrors and one of them will always be looking to break.

If we can't run, we are going to play a deliberate half court set. 4 out with Kareem inside. Stockton and Love are very good outside shooters, and will combine for about half of the team's total 3 pt attempts. Wade and Erving are good enough shooters to require defensive attention, which will create space for their drives.

Stockton runs the point, looking for a cutting Wade or Erving, or feeding Kareem in the post. As a secondary playmaker, Wade can handle the rock and drive to the hoop or kick out to an open man on the perimeter. Everyone in the lineup can pass, and everyone but Stockton was a #1 scoring option, so we expect to regularly draw double teams and pass out for a more open look.

Subs are pretty straightforward. Hawkins/Detlef provide a similar set of skills to Erving/Love (a little more shooting/passing, a little less defense/rebounding) and will generally substitute as a pair. I can also play Detlef/Love together in tactical situations (e.g. end of quarter set pieces) where I want more shooting and can sacrifice defense.

Christie backs up both guards - Wade runs point when Stockton sits. So it'll be Stockton/Wade(24), Stockton/Christie(12), and Wade/Christie(12). The Wade/Christie pairing will generally be on the floor with the second forward unit, providing additional size and defense from the backcourt, and getting some more playmaking from the forwards.

Noah and Mikan back up Kareem at center, 6 minutes each. Adjusting for era, Mikan may be an even more dominant inside presence than Kareem, and Noah is an elite 1-5 defender. Hombre indicated in his general writeup that he may play two centers against Kareem-types. If that's the case, I have the flexibility to play a twin towers lineup with Kareem/Mikan or Kareem/Noah (depending on what makes more sense defensively) or stay the course with Love or Hawkins at PF, both of whom played some center in the drafted season, for more offensive versatility.

Defensive Game Plan (when Hombre has the ball)

If he wants to run the offense through Wilt, I can counter with an even more dominant center in Kareem, backed up by two guys who led their leagues in DWS. I also feel good about Stockton on Paul. Paul holds on to the ball well, so I'm not going to pick off his passes or dribble as much as my other games, but Stockton is a smart, quick defender who can check Paul as well as anybody can.

I also feel good about Wade/Erving on Roy/Barry. Wade and Erving are elite at generating steals (and earned all-defense honors in the chosen season) while Barry and Drexler (if he keeps time-sharing with Roy) are vulnerable to turning the ball over.

The only concern that I have on defense is Love vs Barkley, but despite being my weakest defensive link, Love was still a net positive defender that year and this matchup is relatively advantageous to him. With Wilt/Kareem occupying the paint, there will be limited opportunity for Barkley to play inside (and help defense if he does). Love plays to avoid fouling and cede the 3 pointer and long midrange shot, which I'm more than happy to do against Chuck, whose Achilles heel is shooting too often and badly from outside. My other counter is that Love is going to do the same or more against Chuck on the other end: Love is a good deal better both offensively and defensively by BPM (by WS/48 they are approximately equal) and his outside game should be less hampered by the presence of Wilt/Kareem.

Should Hombre play two centers, I have excess big capacity to counter. I will attach Noah to Embiid to get more steals and perimeter defense to counter Embiid's range and exploit his weakness turning the ball over. If Gasol is the second center, I will first try to punish him defensively by staying with Love or Hawkins in the 4 spot, but if that doesn't work I will sub in Mikan for more size and interior defense.
   24. tshipman Posted: June 08, 2020 at 10:48 AM (#5956041)
One thing I notice just now scrolling through Jordan's numbers are that his 4 best years by 3pt % are also the 4 years he took the most 3s per game. Seems instructive, though we're still talking a relatively small number of attempts.


Short line is a large factor with Jordan.
   25. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: June 08, 2020 at 10:50 AM (#5956043)
We need more time on this. Let's go ahead and push JTSports vs Winter's Night match-up to Tuesday.

Of course, we need winter's around to push out the voting being closed, right?
   26. tshipman Posted: June 08, 2020 at 11:00 AM (#5956046)
@DCA in 23:

I really appreciate the rigor that you bring to this.

I would say that Kareem probably should have more steals/blocks than Wilt, but I understand why tactically, you would want to bend over backwards to be fair. While we are operating in an environment of high uncertainty, we can reliably estimate Kareem's numbers from data a couple years later. Kareem's steal and block rates are off the charts, so we'd expect them to be similar from his early career. Wilt, by contrast, probably had a good block rate, but I doubt it was as exceptional as Kareem's, particularly given how high his usage was on offense.

I want to emphasize that it doesn't matter much due to CP just shooting 36% from 3, but I think you probably could have taken him up to about 5 per 36. Chris Paul has always been a low attempt guy outside of Houston, but I think 5 attempts is fair for his performance.
   27. Jtsports01 Posted: June 08, 2020 at 11:13 AM (#5956054)
Hmmm, I would think Wilt's block rate was even more exceptional then Kareem's. The guy once had 23 blocks in a single game (XMas 68)
   28. jmurph Posted: June 08, 2020 at 11:19 AM (#5956057)
Short line is a large factor with Jordan.

His two best years were during that stretch, but the other 2 were prior. But yeah, definitely a factor.
   29. tshipman Posted: June 08, 2020 at 11:21 AM (#5956061)
Hmmm, I would think Wilt's block rate was even more exceptional then Kareem's. The guy once had 23 blocks in a single game (XMas 68)


Wilt was weird in that he was great at whatever he wanted to be great at, but typically focused on one or two things at a time.

You have the year he led the league in assists, but outside of a two year peak, he was at half his peak assist rate for his career.

I do not doubt that in at least one year in his career, Wilt was the most exceptional shot blocker in the league and maybe in league history. I just don't think it was in 1964.

Kareem, by contrast, is one of the most consistent players in NBA history. It's highly likely that Kareem was averaging between 3.5 and 4 blocks and about 1-1.5 steals.
   30. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: June 08, 2020 at 12:22 PM (#5956093)
I agree with the thrust of your 29, tship - but every estimate I've ever seen of Wilt's blocks was really high. I'd guess it would be as high or higher than Kareem (I once saw an estimate for Wilt at 5 blks per for '62) ... but that it also involved some selling out for blocks along the way.

Another way to think about it is - assists were being counted then, blocks weren't, so you don't have the internal motivation if "I'm going to try to hit this statistical threshold at the expense of team play" that you do with passing. Also, with rebounds (which were counted), Chamberlaim was consistently first or second during this time in boards per minute (with Russell, who was also a profilic shot blocker, obviously). Lastly, though saying 5 blocks a game is certainly eye catching to the point of sounding unrealistic, Wilt played a billion minutes per game, pace was very high, and shots were more clustered around the basket then - the air can get let out of these numbers very quickly.

YMMV, obv, and I've been guilty overrating Wilt before.
   31. Howie Menckel Posted: June 08, 2020 at 12:53 PM (#5956109)
at the risk of repeating a story, but seems kinda on point....

I happened to be in Albany, NY for a preseason game when news came out about Wilt's passing. Willis Reed was there, and several other Wilt-era players - including Lenny Wilkens.

like the others, he waxed poetic about Wilt - til I brought up Wilt leading the league in assists one year.

Lenny bristled, and struggled to bite his tongue - though he ultimately did. I realized immediately that the odds that he finished second to Wilt that season was just north of 100 percent. and sure enough, he did.

and THAT is how competitive elite athletes are.

even all those years later, even as a rival has just left this mortal coil - feistiness over a rather inexact stat and league rankings still smoldered underneath.
   32. Jtsports01 Posted: June 08, 2020 at 01:00 PM (#5956114)
that's a good point Tship,
   33. tshipman Posted: June 08, 2020 at 01:16 PM (#5956121)
I think it's quite likely that Wilt had a high block rate.

We can quibble over the details--whether that was 3 blocks per game at a modern pace, or 4, or even 5 or 2. There's high uncertainty over how to evaluate Wilt's blocks. I think the likely range is 2-5, pace adjusted for a modern game. I think we mostly agree that 2-5 is the appropriate range.

I don't think it's likely that Wilt had a high steal rate. Wilt was famous for being lazy on defense, and steals from bigs require effort and movement. That's where I think Kareem is clearly superior.

I made the same mistake in 26 that I critiqued Lange for in the last thread. Conflating steals and blocks is harmful, because while I think there's high uncertainty in Wilt's blocks, he's probably equal or slightly below Kareem at worse. I think he's probably *not* equal to Kareem in steals, and steals are more valuable.
   34. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: June 08, 2020 at 01:21 PM (#5956124)
We need more time on this. Let's go ahead and push JTSports vs Winter's Night match-up to Tuesday.
Sorry for missing the writeup--turns out there's a lot of distracting things going on in society right now. I'll bump the voting deadline in just a minute and I'll post that writeup here and on the site within a few hours—I'll hurry as much as I can.
   35. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: June 08, 2020 at 01:34 PM (#5956126)
33/tship - co-sign all of that
   36. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: June 08, 2020 at 02:22 PM (#5956134)
Minute allocation:

Kevin Durant :: 36
Al Horford :: 30
Tracy McGrady :: 36
Marc Gasol :: 30
Manu Ginobili :: 30
Elgin Baylor :: 15
Nate McMillan :: 6
Jayson Tatum :: 20
Chris Webber :: 22
Kyle Korver :: 15

Both teams have the passing to create easy buckets when able to run their offense; however, I have a
deeper, more talented roster for isolation scoring, which I think will be a big advantage when the
game turns into a slog. JT's best perimeter defenders are pretty small, and I believe the big wings
I drafted will be a real problem for him.

I will use my bigs' shooting to pull Davis away from the rim to generate easier looks for McGrady,
Ginobli, Durant, and Tatum slashing. If they get left open to protect the rim, that's gravy: they
are all around 1 ppp from long midrange and Horford was about 1.3 ppp from deep that season. Also, I
will try to play Davis as physical as possible, even running a lot of post ups early in the shot
clock: not even necessarily to generate a shot, since he's a fine defender and all of my bigs are
more than equipped to pass out to one of my wing scorers if they don't have a good angle, but to
tire him out. He's JT's only true shot-blocking threat (Jokic is a wonderful position defender, but
I have multiple wings who are athletic enough to dunk all over him if given a good angle) and a bit
on the skinny side, so I'm going to go hard at him every second he's on the court. That's why none
of my bigs is playing more than 30 minutes, or fewer than 22.

JT doesn't have many poor defenders, but he has a few who are potentially exploitable. Battier plays
the shot percentage odds more than creating defensive events; I have a LOT of shotmaking on my
roster, though, and those odds can go against him. Bird and Jokic are smart, but relatively
slow-footed, and can be exploited in space. Moncrief was excellent, and we'll need to be very
careful to keep him from grabbing steals, but he was only 6'3": McGrady, Durant, and Tatum are all
6'8" plus, with very high releases and comfort shooting over defenders. Oladipo's in a similar boat.

I submit that my roster is a worse matchup for his than vice versa, and that it will be victorious.
   37. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: June 08, 2020 at 02:28 PM (#5956138)
Or: posting and toasting, swishing and dishing, weaving, deceiving, and achieving, my team's precocious, bragadocious shotmaking will surmount Clyde's side.
   38. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: June 08, 2020 at 02:32 PM (#5956139)
36--I was goofing on basketball reference about two weeks ago and was shocked how well Moncrief did with the adv metrics from 81-86. I had no idea. And for a player who had the big rep defense his offense was apparently very efficient.
   39. tshipman Posted: June 08, 2020 at 02:41 PM (#5956143)
Btw: interesting video from the Backpicks.com guy just released.

He says that Anthony Davis is the best lob threat of all time, which is an interesting, if narrow skill.
   40. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: June 08, 2020 at 02:58 PM (#5956150)
[38] yep. He was a guy I was targeting with my next pick when he got drafted.
   41. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: June 08, 2020 at 03:26 PM (#5956163)
40--which season of his was picked? I'm assuming 82-83 but wanted to check. Thanks
   42. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: June 08, 2020 at 03:32 PM (#5956166)
You assume correctly.

EDIT: unless that's the difference between you voting for me or not, in which case, uh, you should probably assume it was that weird season he came out of retirement to play a bench role for the Hawks instead.
   43. Jtsports01 Posted: June 08, 2020 at 03:47 PM (#5956170)
I'm just gonna repost this here since we switched threads
Lineup for JTSports
Starters
Bird 36
Brow 36
Frazier 36
jokic 36
moncief 30
Bench
Battier 18
Mullin 6
Oladipo 30
Elton Brand 6
Thurmond 6

Advantages –Defense/rebounding/passing.
I feel like 4 of my 5 starters are superior defensive players to his (using Webber as a starter), and the Gasol/Jokic difference is not nearly enough to make it up. Looking at steal rates, my starter's average 9.6 steals a game (vs 7.1 for Winter) and since he has no primary ball-handlers I would expect this number will go up. My two players coming off the bench are also excellent defensively. In addition he doesn't have particularly great rebounders for a team in this tournament and I expect I will get another 3-4 possessions a game from offensive rebounds.
Winter says that the ball will sing because of his team's great passing but the two best passers in this game are Bird and Jokic, while his best passers are his least efficient scorers. My starting 5 averages 5.88 assists per game, while his averages only 4.84.
Rotation
Frazier/Moncrief/Oladipo combine for 96 minutes at the 2 guard spots
Battier plays 18 minutes or 6 each for Bird/Brow/Jokic
We play 6 minutes with a Mullin/Brand/Thurmond frontcourt
Defense
Pressure there ballhandlers with our great perimeter defenders, making it hard for them to get into their offense. McGrady, Ginobli will have size advantages but we should be able to do a good job of keeping them from getting to the rim. We'll have Durant and Battier split the time guarding Durant.
Offense
Lot's of ball movement, trying to get the defense moving and move the ball quickly. We plan on running a lot of actions off the ball for Bird and Davis with Jokic or Frazier finding them for quality looks. If Durant is guarding Bird I would expect him to get good looks as 2014 Durant was not great at tracking movement off the ball or making good rotations. I also don't see anyone on his team who is going to be able to stop Frazier, Moncrief, Mullin and Oladipo, (7.1, 7.2, 7.3 and 4.9 ft attempts per game) from getting to the basket.
   44. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: June 08, 2020 at 03:50 PM (#5956171)
42--Vote? I am not voting. I am following the exercise obviously.
   45. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: June 08, 2020 at 04:09 PM (#5956181)
A very quick rebuttal.
We'll have Durant and Battier split the time guarding Durant.
The minutes when the only person responsible for stopping Durant from scoring is himself will be good ones for my team.

he has no primary ball-handlers
McGrady absolutely was a primary ball-handler; and I submit that Ginobli had more than enough skill to do so, and would have done more of it if Tony Parker were better off-ball. But I'm picking nits about a premise I reject: it has become increasingly common for teams to use wings as primary ball handlers instead of nominal point guards when they have the roster to do so, because it works. I have the roster to do so.

And while I do think that the additive effect of all those plus passers will make my team sing, I think the marginal difference in isolation scoring will have a bigger impact on this particular matchup than the passing game (where both teams will be excellent).
   46. Jtsports01 Posted: June 08, 2020 at 04:15 PM (#5956183)
haha, Davis guarding Durant! I'm keeping the mistakes for posterity.

   47. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 08, 2020 at 11:40 PM (#5956260)
DCA is right that we play similar styles and have similar line-up constructions. He's wrong about the match-ups, though, and there are two in particular that are going to swing the game in my direction.

STARTERS:
Chris Paul 2009 (36)
Clyde Drexler 1992 (36)
Rick Barry 1975 (36)
Charles Barkley 1988 (36)
Wilt Chamberlain 1964 (36)

BENCH:
Lamar Odom 2011 (18)
Kyle Lowry 2016 (12)
Joel Embiid 2020 (18)
Pau Gasol 2011 (6)
Brandon Roy 2009 (6)

There are two key matchups in my favor:

First is Barkley vs. Love. As I’ve done all tournament, I’m running PnRs with my big guys, and it’s hard to see Love staying with Barkley at all. On the other hand, Barkley’s strong enough to deny Love post position, and fast enough to stay with Love when he spots up. Love's value is almost entirely on offense and rebounding, and with Barkley he's not going to get any cheap rebounds, and we've all borne witness to his interior defensive skills and PnR footwork. Barkley's going to try and bury him with repeated attacks at the basket.

The other matchup is Barry vs. Erving: In RL in that 76-77, the two stars guarded each other six times. Barry averaged 32-7-5 on 48% shooting against Erving’s 25–3-7 on 49% shooting, and Barry outscored Erving in every game but one as his team went 4-2. It's wild to think of someone getting the better of peak Dr. J head to head, but that's exactly what happened: in actual head-to-head games from those two years, Barry was able to get clean looks on his jumper against Erving almost at will, including a 51-point outburst. In his one bad shooting game (4-15), he still dished 13 assists against Dr. J. If there's an idea that J slows down Barry, it didn't happen in real life, and it's not going to happen here.

OFFENSE
As always, I'm nice and slow. I have at least three creators on the floor at all times, so I'll run PnR to death, emphasizing the Barkley/Love mismatch on PnR as often as possible, followed by Barry on Dr. J, and Drexler and his 3-inch height advantage against the smaller Wade. For this game, I'll also take particular advantage of Wilt's penchant for jump-shooting to pull Kareem from the rim. If KAJ won't step out to 12 feet, Wilt becomes an easy release valve for my guys going to the basket. If he doesn't, Barkley and Drexler can try and eat the rim. As I'm running four #1 scoring options, I expect to draw double teams and kick out to open shooters, and since three of my starters also led their teams in assists, I expect them to find those shooters. Plus, I have three historically great offensive rebounders for their position — Wilt, Barkley, Drexler — so I'll chase second-chance points and milk clock with extra possessions.

DEFENSE
There's this idea that Wilt's going to sleep on this matchup. That's not going to happen because (1) Wilt had real beef with Kareem, and (2) Wilt '64 didn't earn 10.6 DWS just by relaxing in the paint. Wilt played Kareem well in real life, so if DCA's offense is running through KAJ, it's not going to be efficient enough to win ballgames. DCA's 3-point advantage only lives in two guys in the starting lineup: Stockton and Love. CP3, ballhawk and league leader in steals that he is, will sit on Stockton both as shooter and playmaker, and Barkley with Love, and neither will help on the slashers. I'm happy to let Wade and Erving try and beat us from 25 feet. If they want to challenge Wilt at the rim, have at it. I want to reduce that offense to Wade and Erving isos and Kareem trying to have big games against Wilt, strategies that are inefficient and slows the game down to my speed. Because of my defensive rebounders, I won't allow a lot of second chances.

Subs are pretty straight-forward. Odom will guard the big wings off the bench, and Embiid will play the Wilt spot. DCA doesn't rally have a good ball-handling guard off the bench, but I do in Lowry and Roy, so we'll run motion to open up for those two, or have those two look for cutters inside.

   48. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: June 09, 2020 at 02:11 AM (#5956276)
I'm not sure who's going to win DCA/Hombre, but I feel a certain sense of justice that finally Paul and Stockton will both get to be on the receiving end of some nut punches.
   49. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 09, 2020 at 05:41 AM (#5956281)
Go vote!
   50. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 09, 2020 at 09:34 AM (#5956306)
So we have our tournament, which we could calculate when we should finish up. We have an NBA proposed schedule. How do those timelines line up? The tournament was designed (and has succeeded, well done!) to fill in the dead space.

Should we try to time the tournament to fit in the NBA time line?
   51. CFBF's Overflowing Pathos Posted: June 09, 2020 at 10:05 AM (#5956312)
If there's a dead period between the end of this tournament and the resumption of the NBA, you guys should repeat the exercise, but trying to draft the worst possible teams. You can argue over which team is the crummiest.

"I'm telling you, my plan to let Adam Morrison run iso 40 times a game is a sure recipe for a blowout defeat."

"Please. I'm going to run my offense through Jan Vesely. We'll be lucky to break 70."
   52. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: June 09, 2020 at 10:33 AM (#5956322)
"Please. I'm going to run my offense through Jan Vesely. We'll be lucky to break 70."

We're running an Thabeet/Olowakandi pnr. We will UNCRUSH YOU.
   53. Jtsports01 Posted: June 09, 2020 at 11:09 AM (#5956330)
Only lottery picks are allowed to be drafted
   54. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 09, 2020 at 11:14 AM (#5956333)
I see many Timberwolves being drafted very high. Again.
   55. Rally Posted: June 09, 2020 at 11:42 AM (#5956348)
I figure Jordan playing 20 years later would be similar to Lebron as a 3 point shooter. Good enough, it would be part of his game, but he wouldn't be one of the elite guys in that category.

Jordan had 4 seasons where he shot at least 200 attempts. One of those was with the short line, so I'll throw that out. The other seasons he shot: .376. .352, and .374.

In his other years where he didn't shoot many 3s and didn't shoot them well, the attempts probably have a disproportionate number of end of quarter heaves. Or some years he just wasn't feeling it, and stayed away from the 3 point line. In an era where the 3 is more important, he'd spend more time practicing and getting his feel. Because I know that Jordan would not sit by and do nothing while other teams are beating him with 3 pointers.

Larry Bird had the same pattern. He shot 40% as a rookie, on 143 attempts. Also the first year of the 3 pointer. The next 4 years he averaged about 70 attempts and a 26% success rate, while playing 3000 minutes per year. Then he started increasing his volume, and was about a 40% shooter from 3 for the rest of his career.

His career rate was .376, but closer to 40% when he was making the shot a regular part of his game.

For both Bird and Jordan my take is that shot selection (regular 3 vs desperation heaves) and practice/focus on the shot explain the difference. My guess is Jordan playing in his prime, today's game, would be at least a 35% shooter, maybe 38%, but probably not a 40% guy (might shoot 40% for a season, but not every year).
   56. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: June 09, 2020 at 11:44 AM (#5956349)
Why play checkers when you can play antichess? I like it.

That said, the tournament schedule running into the season is going to be the issue for us to resolve, not extra time to kill.
   57. NJ in NY (Now with two kids!) Posted: June 09, 2020 at 12:07 PM (#5956361)
Jordan had 4 seasons where he shot at least 200 attempts. One of those was with the short line, so I'll throw that out. The other seasons he shot: .376. .352, and .374.

.374 was also short line.
   58. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: June 09, 2020 at 12:50 PM (#5956377)
The team building antisynergies in the tanking tournament would be amazing. A team of Shawn Bradleys who can't get the ball over halfcourt versus a team of Nate Robinsons who can't get a rebound? Sign me up.
   59. tshipman Posted: June 09, 2020 at 12:51 PM (#5956379)
I mean, if you throw out all the seasons where he shot a bad percentage, Kobe was a great 3p shooter, too!

If you set aside all of Steph Curry's misses, he shoots 100% from 3!
   60. DCA Posted: June 09, 2020 at 01:18 PM (#5956390)
DCA's quick rebuttal to hombre's writeup, privilege for publishing first. These are matchups that he thinks he will win:

Love__ .245 WS/48, 120 ORtg, 104 DRtg, 8.3 OBPM, 0.6 DPM, 7.7 VORP
Barkley .253 WS/48, 126 ORtg, 108 DRtg, 7.3 OBPM, 0.1 DPM, 7.5 VORP

to be fair, it's very close, but to me it adds up to a slight edge for Love if anything.

Erving .262 WS/48, 116 Ortg, 97 DRtg, 8.1 OBPM, 2.5 DBPM, 10.3 VORP
Barry_ .188 WS/48, ??? ORtg, 97 DRtg, 4.5 OBPM, 0.4 DBPM, 5.7 VORP

you can cherry-pick 6 games for this one, as hombre has done, or look at full season of stats. Bold shows league leader.
   61. jmurph Posted: June 09, 2020 at 01:26 PM (#5956393)
I mean, if you throw out all the seasons where he shot a bad percentage, Kobe was a great 3p shooter, too!

If you set aside all of Steph Curry's misses, he shoots 100% from 3!

I get it, but it's a clear pattern. When he took more, he made them at a higher percentage. And we're talking about years in which he doubled or more than doubled his number of attempts. It's not really cherrypicking.

(And, again, I've not yet seen anyone make the case that he would be a great shooter or a high volume one.)
   62. tshipman Posted: June 09, 2020 at 01:56 PM (#5956409)
I get it, but it's a clear pattern. When he took more, he made them at a higher percentage. And we're talking about years in which he doubled or more than doubled his number of attempts. It's not really cherrypicking.


The thresholds are arbitrary though. Jordan only was an effective 3p shooter with the short line. He has 6 seasons with more than 90 attempts in the regular season with the full line, and he shot 32.1%. He has an additional 7 seasons with a low number of attempts and he shot a truly terrible 22%.

Why would you focus on two seasons when there are 13 seasons?
   63. jmurph Posted: June 09, 2020 at 02:03 PM (#5956414)
Because in those seasons he doubled or more than doubled his number of attempts per game, and they stand out.

This is basically the mildest argument in support of a player I can imagine making. I do not think he would have been a great shooter in the current era.
   64. NJ in NY (Now with two kids!) Posted: June 09, 2020 at 02:33 PM (#5956427)
Feel like this is my fault. But yes, I think the best case scenario for Jordan's 3 point shooting is LeBron. I subjectively feel that people discuss this aspect of his game as though he would be better than that.
   65. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 09, 2020 at 02:43 PM (#5956430)
I think we should focus on how this is NJ's fault. Damn you.
   66. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 09, 2020 at 02:51 PM (#5956432)
you can cherry-pick 6 games for this one, as hombre has done, or look at full season of stats.
I didn't so much cherry-pick as I picked all the games between those two players going head to head in the relevant timeframe. The full season stats are against the overall league and, in Love's instance, in an entirely different offensive context. Love and Erving aren't getting to face any scrubs this series. They specifically get Barkley and Barry. In real life, Doc couldn't stop Barry, and I don't think anyone thinks Love will stop Barkley.
   67. tshipman Posted: June 09, 2020 at 02:55 PM (#5956434)
In 1989-90, the first 20 games of the season, Jordan hit 40% of his 3s and took 2.5 per game.
In his next 20 games, he hit 41% of his 3s and escalated to 3.8 3s per game.
In the next 20 games, he declined to 29.5% and 2.2 3s per game
In the final 22 games, he leveled off at 36.8% and 3.5 3s per game.

None of this carried through to the playoffs, where he took 3.1 3s and made just 32%.

The next season in 1990/91, his first 20 games were quite poor for 3p shooting:
He made just 21% and took only 0.7 per game.
The whole rest of the season, he only took a high of 5 per game.

To me, what I see is a player who is very conscious of his ongoing season average. When Jordan sees that he is making 3s, he continues to take them. As soon as he sees his averages dip, he stops taking them.

From that standpoint, I am not persuaded by the argument that he is really "better" in the high volume seasons. He just hits a higher percentage of his shots early in the year, and so decides to continue.

Edit: The exact same thing happens in 1992-93:
in the first 20 games, he hits 43% of his 3s and takes 2.7 per game.
   68. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: June 09, 2020 at 03:24 PM (#5956448)
My only problem with losing is how many voters seemed to think my roster lacked enough ball handling to deal with a couple pressure defenders. Congrats to JT on that absolute nonsense ;)

Still got a losers bracket to dominate!
   69. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 09, 2020 at 04:40 PM (#5956467)
I was worried I referenced ball handling, but instead I said versatility at the top end and better defense. And I still think Larry Bird is about as versatile a top-end talent as you are going to find.

So I feel no need to defend (or attack) the ball-handling truthers ;)
   70. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: June 09, 2020 at 05:06 PM (#5956477)
Oh, I'm not taking this fantasy (or is it sci-fi, what with the time travel?) basketball personally enough to really attack anyone, I just wanted to talk a bit of #### and post some dribble highlights. I hope that comes through.
   71. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: June 09, 2020 at 06:50 PM (#5956499)
Oh, I'm not taking this fantasy (or is it sci-fi, what with the time travel?) basketball personally enough to really attack anyone, I just wanted to talk a bit of #### and post some dribble highlights. I hope that comes through.

let's also not forget the gem of people wondering whether giannis could possibly be good without the likes of brook lopez playing alongside him.
   72. Booey Posted: June 09, 2020 at 07:03 PM (#5956503)
Again, I know it's easy for me to say since I don't have a team getting picked apart by the masses, but...voting is hard. Most of these teams are pretty evenly matched and we need to focus on little - you could even say nitpicky sometimes - reasons to choose one team over another. It's just the nature of the game. If that continues to be a sore spot for some, the voters are probably better off voting without giving a rationale. I'm thinking that's the direction I might start leaning.
   73. Jtsports01 Posted: June 09, 2020 at 08:09 PM (#5956513)
Even though I rarely give comments I appreciate everyone who does. Even when I lost, it was good to get the feedback because then I could try to counter the arguments in future write ups.
   74. DCA Posted: June 09, 2020 at 09:33 PM (#5956526)
+1. I like the rationales. Even when they hurt.
   75. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 09, 2020 at 10:18 PM (#5956535)
I see each game/series like a little story in my mind and I try to tell it. Calling what I write analysis or even feedback is incredibly generous. Other people, they have analysis and I enjoy that also.
   76. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: June 10, 2020 at 02:51 AM (#5956555)
#10 JTSPORTS 10, #9 WINTER'S NIGHT 4
JT remains in one-loss bracket; Winter's Night moves to two-loss bracket

With both teams full of confidence coming off wins, JT took this one rather handily. It just kind of seemed like a talent thing.

JT voters:
<< I see a disjointed game where neither team can get into a rhythm. I think the plan to stop Durant is a good one and I like JTSports to scrap it out. >>
<< Biggest difference between the teams is more passing and playmaking for JTS. That carries the day. >>
<< I think JTSports' team wins, largely because I think his top end talent is a bit more versatile and better on defense. >>
<< While I agree that winter's nights perimeter guys are good ballhandlers, I do not think they are take the ball up the court under pressure from Moncrief, Frazier and Oladipo level ballhandlers. >>

WN voter:
<< Ended up picking Winter because Gasol and Horford are the perfect floor spacing bigs to pull Davis away from the rim and open up lanes for slashers like McGrady and Manu. >>

NEXT UP: DCA vs Hombre in the one-loss bracket; votes due today (Wednesday) at noon EDT.
   77. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: June 10, 2020 at 03:19 AM (#5956556)
If that continues to be a sore spot for some, the voters are probably better off voting without giving a rationale. I'm thinking that's the direction I might start leaning.
I would be personally sad if the rationales cease coming in with votes: I think they add a lot to the results. A little grousing is natural from the spurned parties, and I've had a little fun letting off steam, but if it's going too far, I at least would much rather hold my tongue and be a good sport than ruin rationales for the body politic.
   78. jmurph Posted: June 10, 2020 at 09:00 AM (#5956576)
let's also not forget the gem of people wondering whether giannis could possibly be good without the likes of brook lopez playing alongside him.

Hey it's not easy to find, errrr, uhhh well below average shooters, I guess?
   79. Booey Posted: June 10, 2020 at 12:22 PM (#5956622)
Looking at the brackets, I see that we have some rematches coming up. I'm curious to see what adjustments the original losing teams make to try and swing the voters their way.
   80. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 10, 2020 at 01:04 PM (#5956634)
JTS vs Harlond, Round 2! The first time around, Harlond won a tight one, 13-10. TShip beat Winters' 14-10 the first time around in another close one. Rematches are where all those voting rationales really matter. How will coaches adjust? How much input will they utilize? How will the voters react? TUNE IN TO FIND OUT!
   81. Jtsports01 Posted: June 10, 2020 at 01:08 PM (#5956638)
Hopefully Winter is more familiar with my team's roster now :)
   82. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: June 10, 2020 at 01:23 PM (#5956641)
I think the discussion here has been generally up to the high standards of the thread. Occasionally things get a bit snippy, but folks have generally been good about policing themselves.
   83. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 10, 2020 at 02:24 PM (#5956661)
I have said it before, but this thread is the best place on the internet. Amazingly self-policing and on topic.
   84. DCA Posted: June 10, 2020 at 02:56 PM (#5956668)
Given that nearly every comment said “it’s a tie” it would have been nice if one person voted differently and the hombre/DCA matchup was actually a tie.

Gonna happen eventually. How are we going to deal with that? Both stay in their bracket?
   85. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 10, 2020 at 03:02 PM (#5956669)
Given that nearly every comment said “it’s a tie” it would have been nice if one person voted differently and the hombre/DCA matchup was actually a tie.
Hard disagree.
Gonna happen eventually. How are we going to deal with that? Both stay in their bracket?
I'll cast the tie-breaking vote. I also have a Paypal account.

Seriously, I dunno. We'll jump off that bridge if we ever get to it.
   86. Booey Posted: June 10, 2020 at 03:35 PM (#5956673)
#85 - I think we'd need to call Der-K in to cast the tie breaking vote. His vote counts for like 10 of ours anyway.
   87. Booey Posted: June 10, 2020 at 03:42 PM (#5956675)
Seriously though, in case of a tie, I think we should just open up the voting again for another day - or maybe even just a few more hours - and encourage anyone who didn't vote to do so (posters who already voted wouldn't be allowed to do so again). Hopefully a couple extra votes would be enough to determine who takes the series in OT.
   88. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: June 10, 2020 at 04:36 PM (#5956683)
What Booey said (either 86 or 87 works).
   89. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: June 10, 2020 at 05:08 PM (#5956691)
I prefer 87. :)

I haven't had time to follow most of these but this is a pretty fun matchup. I would have voted DCA, but I was only 60/40 on it. Paul v Stockton is tremendous/hilarious.

The best and easiest way to judge these things is on a matchup basis, but I'd be tempted to try to do some quick and dirty usage/efficiency adjustments in judging (like, bump up ratings up by x for every y drop in usage to get the team down to 100).
   90. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: June 10, 2020 at 06:11 PM (#5956705)
#11 HOMBRE 10, #3 DCA 8
Hombre stays in one-loss bracket; DCA to two-loss bracket

This is the first matchup where almost every commenter noted that it was close. In previous close matchups, there has been a lot more diversity of opinion, from one team being significantly better to the other one. In contrast, voters here on both sides had a tough time with this matchup; Hombre prevailed 10-8 but it's easy to see things the other way. As such, rationales were varied; it's a question of who had the slightly better fit and team, not one dominant factor. Thanks for the best match of the tourney to date!

I want to call out this hilarious comment from tyhand7 (not sure if it is a quote from something):

<< "A fight breaks out. Chamberlain wilted and Jabbar gets Kareemed" >>

I also want to call out and thank tyhand7 for their votes -- I don't know if this is the screen name of someone active, but I assume it's a lurker. He/she has voted on 16 matchups -- the only person who doesn't have a team and isn't a board regular to vote more than 5 times. Thank you for your participation!

Hombre voters:
<< Agree that these are two very similar rosters. I'm voting for Hombre because I have more confidence in his gameplan. I think the PnR with Paul and particularly Barkley will be tough to contain >>
<< The series runs seven games, and game seven goes into triple overtime... Looking back the pivotal match-up for the series was Sir Charles versus Kevin Love >>
<< Similar teams, similar weaknesses. I think I like Hombre's guards better, largely because I hate Stockton against elite opposition. >>
<< An extraordinarily close matchup. Kareem is my GOAT, so it's painful to go away from him, but I feel Hombre's arguments for his team win the matchup by a hair. >>
<< I think this is a very close game ... in the end I think Hombre wins 3 of the [matchups] between starters
(all but Kareem and Wade) >>
<< Came down to Hombre's offense making more sense to me from a fit/visualization perspective and me feeling that that's a lot of Doug Christie minutes. >>

DCA voters:
<< Tough matchup. I think DCA takes it for a couple reasons: 1) I think this is a good matchup for the athletic cutters in Wade and Dr. J... 2) Hombre is having Wilt threaten to shoot 12-foot jump shots? >>
<< Similar teams, pretty evenly matched, should go down to the wire... I give Kareem a slight edge over Wilt, and I think DCA's slashers (Dr J and Wade) are a little better than Hombre's wings >>
<< Fairly close matchup (about two points)... DCA got more points from the 3p line, was slightly more efficient from 2 >>
<< This was a really tough one, and I went back and forth multiple times... I couldn't ruin it for DCA's wife. >>

NEXT UP: It's our first rematch: JT Sports vs Harlond, this time in the one-loss bracket after Harlond took his first L against Michael Jordan and Willard Baseball. Harlond won the first matchup 12-9. You may wish to go to the voting page for the first matchup to see voter rationales (strategy writeups had not yet been implemented, but I'm assuming the participants want to refresh those anyway). Voting due Friday noon ET.
   91. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 10, 2020 at 06:53 PM (#5956710)
I went back to look and see what my voting rationale was. It was before I got rid of the ad blocker and so couldn't put one in the voting page and my only comment in the thread was something to the effect of "wow that was a difficult choice".

Thanks past me, you are a useless lump!
   92. nick swisher hygiene Posted: June 10, 2020 at 07:41 PM (#5956717)
well, I let the rest of the world distract me for too long, but was finally tempted to check into what this thread was up to in the time of coronovirus....

*reads for 24 hrs straight*

amazing work!

will prepare myself for some voting....
   93. nick swisher hygiene Posted: June 10, 2020 at 07:45 PM (#5956719)
also, a question for those who follow analytics seriously:

Tship posted a while back about the difficulty in disaggregating value with a pick & roll combo—as a basketball stats dilettante, this amazed me. So much data from the last 15 years, and nobody’s done a massive study?

Also, why are there no verbs for the initiator half of the combo? Set, pick, screen, roll, pop—what about the other guy?
   94. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: June 10, 2020 at 08:21 PM (#5956722)
Also, why are there no verbs for the initiator half of the combo? Set, pick, screen, roll, pop—what about the other guy?
drive, slash, shoot, swing, lob, kick, pivot, reset, pull out, pull up...


but really, this is one of those times where a PG is really "quarterbacking" an offense. the pick and pop or pick and roll tends to be a set play (or variety of plays) and the PG's role is to read the defense and choose the best option available. the PGs role is to "take what the defense gives him", and so the difference between the good (chris paul, patrick mahomes) and the great (jrue holiday, alex smith) is the ability to make plays above and beyond their system.
   95. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: June 10, 2020 at 08:47 PM (#5956732)
this article is 5+ years old, but it seems like a good starters guide for understanding the intricacies of NBA pick and rolls.


The pick and roll is the genesis of the modern NBA offense. It forces the defense to make a decision on each and every possession. That decision then opens up a multitude of offensive options: the pull-up jumper, the drive to the paint, the pass to the rolling or popping man, the kick-out pass, the dish to someone coming off an action on the opposite side, etc. There is so much going on.

As a result, NBA defenses have come up with a smorgasbord of defensive coverages to combat it. Every team has multiple ways to play the pick and roll, depending on individual matchups and their overall defensive philosophy. Almost every defensive decision in the NBA begins and ends with how you choose to play the pick and roll.

This leads to a variety of questions. What are you willing to give up? What is the number one thing you're trying to take away? How does your personnel fit with what you would ideally want to do? Or, a better question: how can you play the pick and roll with your existing personnel?
   96. tshipman Posted: June 10, 2020 at 09:54 PM (#5956742)
Tship posted a while back about the difficulty in disaggregating value with a pick & roll combo—as a basketball stats dilettante, this amazed me. So much data from the last 15 years, and nobody’s done a massive study?


1. Play tracking data is relatively recent. NBA.com only has publicly available data tracing back to 2013/14.
2. The NBA never had a stats vs. scouts divide. Every team has had a talented analyst working for it in the last 10 years. Some teams have been doing this for 20 years. That means there are fewer public domain analysts.
3. A lot of this #### is really hard and really expensive. One way to think about the questions that are out there for basketball stats is that basically everything left is as hard to solve as defense in baseball. To do any of this requires a subscription to Synergy that runs about 80K per year. That dramatically limits the amount of people willing to do original research.
4. So much in the NBA is discretionary. Take the example of Steph and Draymond. They play something like 80% of their minutes together, and they do that because the combo of the two of them is really powerful. How do you disentangle effects like that, where dyads in the NBA are preferred to play together? Now realize that the other team also has synergies that they attack and defend those teams with. Some lineups become noteworthy: like LeBron plus shooters, but others labor in obscurity, like JJ Barea + Dwight Powell. These lineups depend upon us to notice them, so players who reach the playoffs become more noteworthy.
   97. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 10, 2020 at 11:51 PM (#5956752)
so the difference between the good (chris paul, patrick mahomes) and the great (jrue holiday, alex smith)
I see what you did there.
   98. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: June 11, 2020 at 01:46 AM (#5956769)
I see what you did there.
stiggles posts are like a durian: surprisingly dense and filled with rotting onion fondue.
   99. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 11, 2020 at 05:04 AM (#5956771)
I agree with that second part!
   100. Tyhand7 Posted: June 11, 2020 at 11:21 AM (#5956801)
@90 Yes, 100% lurker. Due to the pandemic, I have probably read 99% of the comments of the thread. The quote is not original - it came from a friend of my older brother who was test recording on a brand new cassette player early 70's. I have no idea whether he made it up or he heard it from somewhere. Apparently, it stuck with me...
My 2 cents on the entire process is that shooting % will be noticeably lower than the players experienced in real life (I picture 2%-4%) - even the 3's. The defenses will be uniquely athletic, long and smothering
Page 1 of 5 pages  1 2 3 >  Last ›

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
TedBerg
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 7-6-2020
(24 - 7:34pm, Jul 06)
Last: What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face?

NewsblogCleveland Indians look into changing name amid pressure
(142 - 7:27pm, Jul 06)
Last: TJ

NewsblogWith baby on the way, Trout unsure if he'll play
(52 - 7:09pm, Jul 06)
Last: RJ in TO

NewsblogEmpty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird
(6521 - 7:01pm, Jul 06)
Last: Hank Gillette

NewsblogOT – NBA Revival Thread 2020
(465 - 6:04pm, Jul 06)
Last: Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1928 Results
(2 - 4:48pm, Jul 06)
Last: DL from MN

NewsblogCovid-19 test delays impacting multiple teams
(14 - 4:43pm, Jul 06)
Last: Karl from NY

Newsblog8th? BBTF Central Park Softball Game: October 3
(54 - 4:00pm, Jul 06)
Last: Hysterical & Useless

NewsblogNats’ Ryan Zimmerman, Joe Ross among first MLB players to opt out of 2020 season
(6 - 3:54pm, Jul 06)
Last: Itchy Row

NewsblogBill James: Why We Need Runs Saved Against Zero
(181 - 3:30pm, Jul 06)
Last: Rally

NewsblogDodgers pitcher David Price opts out of 2020 MLB season
(14 - 2:19pm, Jul 06)
Last: Joe Bivens, Elderly Northeastern Jew

NewsblogOT Soccer Thread - Spring 2020
(367 - 1:03pm, Jul 06)
Last: Mefisto

NewsblogYankees’ Masahiro Tanaka hit in head by Giancarlo Stanton line drive
(16 - 11:08am, Jul 06)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogOT - Catch-All Pop Culture Extravaganza (July 2020)
(2 - 9:39am, Jul 06)
Last: PreservedFish

NewsblogAre there graves under Tropicana Field parking lots? Archaeologists want to find out
(8 - 3:02am, Jul 06)
Last: John Northey

-->

Page rendered in 0.8288 seconds
46 querie(s) executed