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Sunday, June 07, 2020

OT – NBA Revival Thread 2020

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, and hopefully all of them survive these next few weeks.

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Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 07, 2020 at 04:08 PM | 466 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nba, off-topic

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   401. JJ1986 Posted: June 29, 2020 at 04:34 PM (#5960234)
No disrespect to JJ, who did a good job drafting. However, I had him as about the 4th best team in the tournament. The best team is already out, though, so I guess that's why they ... imagine the games?
I definitely don't think I have the best team either. I've gotten lucky in matchups and I think my team does really well in a matchup of two smaller teams. A team with Shaq and Karl Malone terrified me and any team who can put two scoring bigs on the floor at the same time is going to be a problem.
   402. tshipman Posted: June 29, 2020 at 04:55 PM (#5960240)
Starters:
Magic (36 min)
Terry Porter (36 min)
Scottie Pippen (36 min)
Dennis Rodman (36 min)
Bill Walton (30 min)

Bench:
Khris Middleton (24 min)
Alvin Robertson (24 min)
Rasheed Wallace (6 min)
Gordon Hayward (6 min)
Byron Scott (6 min)

When I have the ball:
Same plan as always: run and push the pace. Run the break. Harlond is on the small side for this tournament, and I'm fairly confident that my team will be able to clean the glass well and initiate the break. Harlond's team takes a higher percentage of their shots as two pointers than most teams in the tournament, and shoots a lower percentage (49.7%) than most teams. I am confident that my squad of plus rebounders will be able to control the glass and push the tempo. In particular, his wings (Pierce and Butler) like to drive the ball, which means that he'll only have one rim protector back at best, and the guys who will be stuck rotating back (Oscar, Donyell Marshall or Eddie Jones) are not great at stopping the ball.

In the half court, I'll rely on my initiator playing a two man game with a big drawing Robinson out to the high post. We'll look to use our superior quickness to get Robinson jumping and finish around him. When David Robinson is out, we'll go straight at Moses or Horace Grant and pressure the rim with multiple guys.

As always, we'll look to get on the offensive glass, where we'll be able to exploit our advantages inside further.

When he has the ball:
I play Magic on Jimmy Butler, who likes to beat up smaller players. Magic is larger and comfortably defended power forwards in the 80s, so I'm fine with that matchup. Terry Porter will match up primarily on Oscar, who is more dangerous as a passer than as a scorer. I look to use Scottie Pippen and Rodman as a helper off of whoever the fifth starter is: either Donyell Marshall or Eddie Jones. I guard Robinson with Walton on the initial action, and dig from the strong side whenever he puts the ball on the court. In 1995 playoffs, Robinson coughed the ball up with consistency: 3.7 turnovers per game (very high for a big). Every time he takes a dribble, I'm sending a dig from an elite pickpocket to slow him down and turn him over. Robinson is only dangerous as a finisher--for his career (that we have data for) from the midrange, he shot below 40%.

My key advantages:
My team averages between 2-4 more offensive rebounds (depending on whether he starts Eddie Jones or Donyell). My team averages between 0.5 and 1 more steals per game. This gives me a ton of extra shots. In a 100 possession game, that advantage is about 3 per game.
I'm more efficient from 2p (53.6% vs. 49.8%).
Unusually for me, I project to take more 3s, although it's just 2 more per game.
I have better playoff performers, with David Robinson, Butler and Paul Pierce all suffering notable drop-offs from the regular season in the year selected.

His key advantages:

His team shoots more FTs and is more accurate. He projects to about 15 more FT attempts per game (46 vs. 31). He has a premium offensive creator in the big O, and a cohesive philosophy built around a natural partnership of the law firm Robinson & Robertson.

All in all, I project to about a point to about a point and a half advantage for my team (depending on exactly what lineup Harlond starts).
   403. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 29, 2020 at 05:24 PM (#5960249)
All fair, but you also have MF'in Wilt. There's simply no way they can stop both of them, and I'm skeptical they can stop either.
Wouldn't that mean Jokic is trying to guard Wilt?
Yep. That's why I did what I did. In my mind, that's the matchup that won me this series.
   404. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: June 29, 2020 at 06:30 PM (#5960265)
Shams Charania @ShamsCharania

Nets guard Spencer Dinwiddie (@SDinwiddie_25) tells @TheAthleticNBA he has tested positive for coronavirus and has symptoms, creating doubt over his status for NBA restart.
   405. Howie Menckel Posted: June 29, 2020 at 09:43 PM (#5960297)
DeAndre Jordan
@DeAndre
Found out last night and confirmed again today that I’ve tested positive for Covid while being back in market. As a result of this, I will not be in Orlando for the resumption of the season.
9:34 PM · Jun 29, 2020
   406. tshipman Posted: June 29, 2020 at 09:48 PM (#5960298)
I'm starting to think that the Nets may not win the NBA championship.
   407. Howie Menckel Posted: June 29, 2020 at 09:53 PM (#5960299)

(Bobby worked with the Nets for a long time, working his way up from the bottom...)

Bobby Marks
@BobbyMarks42
·
12m
Brooklyn will get yet another substitute spot for Orlando. We could be looking at a drastically different Nets team from when the season was postponed. Brooklyn keeps their first-round pick if they miss the playoffs.
   408. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: June 30, 2020 at 12:18 AM (#5960320)
No disrespect to JJ, who did a good job drafting. However, I had him as about the 4th best team in the tournament. The best team is already out, though, so I guess that's why they ... imagine the games?

It's funny, I think we're reaching the point where all my preferred teams are eliminated, on the brink of elimination, or trending downward. I know I've been low on the consensus score throughout the tournament, so I guess that shouldn't be surprising.

The difference of opinion probably stems most from (1) I weigh the postseason much more heavily than the average voter and (2) I lean on plus/minus stats (and team performance, particularly where plus/minus is unavailable) as much as, or more than, individual stats to gauge player quality.

On that last point, I feel like there's a pretty clear disconnect between Wilt's actual record and the comments here. Most voters seem to be treating Wilt as a nearly unbeatable force as a post scorer, yet no NBA team that substantially relied on Wilt as a post scorer had even a GOOD offense.

His individual stats in his 20s are extraordinary, but the league didn't track turnovers, and it seems fairly likely that he was the most turnover-prone #1 option ever. In 1967, Philly improved from having the league's #6 offense out of 9 teams to having the #1 offense out of 10 teams. The key to their improvement was switching the offense from Wilt taking the most shots to taking the fewest shots in the starting lineup on a rate basis. Wilt played on lots of subpar offenses and 3 excellent ones; what those 3 teams (1967, 1969, and 1972) had in common was that Wilt didn't shoot much -- in fact he took the fewest shots per 36 among starters on all 3 teams.

Everyone is treating Wilt like he's Shaq when his closest modern comp is probably Dwight Howard. He was an outstanding athletic rim protector who could be part of a great offense as a dive man, putback artist, and decoy, but whenever he served as a primary scorer the offense sputtered.
   409. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: June 30, 2020 at 01:36 AM (#5960326)
Everyone is treating Wilt like he's Shaq


Fair when they treated Shaq like Wilt (ba dum bum).
   410. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 30, 2020 at 06:07 AM (#5960329)
Everyone is treating Wilt like he's Shaq when his closest modern comp is probably Dwight Howard. He was an outstanding athletic rim protector who could be part of a great offense as a dive man, putback artist, and decoy, but whenever he served as a primary scorer the offense sputtered.
I don't know if that's quite fair to Wilt. Howard was never a top 10 offensive player in the league, while Wilt number one with a bullet for a decade, and his favorite shot (other than his Big Dipper layup) was a midrange fadeaway that Howard could only dream of having. In his prime, his teams force-fed everything through him — as a Warrior, he led the league in shots every single season. We know that if you funnel everything into the post, you're going to have a grinding offense. That he was a terrible free throw shooter and his passing was of the "fine for a big man" variety meant that opponents, especially in the playoffs, could collapse on him.

To me, this is a problem of game planning, not a problem with Wilt. As Dandy points out, when wasn't being force-fed the ball, offenses ran smoother, and Wilt's FG% went through the roof. This is why I think Wilt works so well for me in this tournament. I've been using Chris Paul and Rick Barry to run pick-and-roll every single game, so I can take advantage of Wilt's speed and leaping ability as a dive man, without asking him to try and be Bill Walton and pass the ball around. The 76ers asked him to change his game in his prime, and he did exactly that, so I think I'm being totally reasonable to Wilt and to the tournament by playing him the way I have.
   411. NJ in NY (Now with two kids!) Posted: June 30, 2020 at 08:54 AM (#5960333)
Everyone is treating Wilt like he's Shaq when his closest modern comp is probably Dwight Howard. He was an outstanding athletic rim protector who could be part of a great offense as a dive man, putback artist, and decoy, but whenever he served as a primary scorer the offense sputtered.

The available evidence would suggest Howard is/was a much better defender than Wilt. Apologies if you're not suggesting that Wilt was on Howard's level on the defensive end.
   412. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 30, 2020 at 09:21 AM (#5960337)
I think Wilt playing with Chris Paul is much better than Wilt IRL in terms of efficiency on the offensive end. I think the two of them (and Rick and the rest of the boys) have a pretty good fit and help each other's games. At least in my imagination.
   413. Harlond Posted: June 30, 2020 at 12:08 PM (#5960363)
Matchup—Harlond vs Tshipman

As I calculate things, we have the following advantages over Tshipman’s team.

First, we’re taller. We may or may not be “on the small side for this tournament,” but we’re taller than Tshipman’s team. My starters average 80.4 inches to his starters’ 79.6, and my bench averages 79.6 to his bench’s 78. That will help in the rebounding battle.

Second, we have a truly massive advantage in getting to the free throw line. Using per 36 minute averages and the minutes assigned for each team, I calculate that my team averages 47.9 FTA to his 31.2. As Tshipman acknowledges, we also shoot much better from the line. The six guys to whom I’m giving 36 or 30 minutes shoot .774 on 9.9 FTA (Robinson), .853 on 9.5 FTA (Robertson), .809 on 7 FTA (Pierce), .865 on 8.7 FTA (Butler), .864 on 5.4 FTA (Jones), and .741 on 4 FTA (Grant). Tshipman’s team is also slightly more foul-prone than mine at 17.3 PF compared to my 16.4, again calculated using per 36 minute averages and the minutes assigned for each team. His team starts 3 guys who shoot under .715 from the line. This should result in an extra 13-14 points for my team, not counting any secondary effects from foul trouble created.

Third, while Tshipman says his team averages “between 0.5 and 1 more steals” than mine, I am not sure that’s correct. Based on per 36 minute averages and using the minutes assigned for each team, I calculate that my team averages 9.6 steals compared to Tshipman’s 9.3. This is so even though my calculations exclude any steals for Robertson, as steals per 36 minutes were not recorded for 1963-64. At worst, we are equal in this measure, and at best I have a 1-1.5 steal advantage. I also appear to have an advantage in blocks of 7.2 to 6.1.

Fourth, my team also is less turnover prone. Again using per 36 minute averages and the minutes assigned for each team, my team averages 12.6 turnovers versus Tshipman’s 16. My average does not include Robertson, and his does not include Walton. I’ll assume Robertson is slightly more turnover prone than Walton, which still yields an advantage of about 3 fewer turnovers per game.

Fifth, for what it’s worth, my starters total 74.5 win shares versus his starters’ 61.8. Likewise, my bench totals 17.5 win shares versus his bench’s 15.2. Overall that gives us 15 extra win shares. The advantage holds up in WS/48 also, with my starters totaling 1.52 WS/48 versus his starters’ 1.0, and my bench totaling 0.3 to his 0.3.

Tshipman is right that we have a disadvantage in offensive rebounds, which I agree is on the order of 2-4 extra ORs per game for Tshipman. That advantage is offset by my advantage in turnovers. I therefore do not think Tshipman will realize “a ton of extra shots” because of offensive rebounding and steals.

My Lineup:

PG Robertson (1963-64)—(36)
SG Pierce (2001-02)—(36)
SF Butler (2016-17)—(36)
PF Grant (1991-92—(36)
C Robinson (1994-95)—(36)

PG Cassell (2003-04)—12)
SF Simmons (2019-20)—(6)
PF Marshall (2003-04)—(6)
SG Jones (1999-00)—(30)
C Malone (1982-83)—(6)

Tshipman’s Lineup:

Starters:
Magic (36 min)
Terry Porter (36 min)
Scottie Pippen (36 min)
Dennis Rodman (36 min)
Bill Walton (30 min)

Bench:
Khris Middleton (24 min)
Alvin Robertson (24 min)
Rasheed Wallace (6 min)
Gordon Hayward (6 min)
Byron Scott (6 min)

When My Team Has The Ball:

Tshipman wants to double down on Robinson from the strong side to get steals. We do want Robinson operating out of the high post because of his quickness, height advantage, and finishing ability. We’ll try to punish Tshipman for doubling from the strong side by stationing Butler (a career .404 shooter from the corners who made 55% of his corner threes in 2016-17), Pierce, or Jones in the corner or elsewhere on the strong side. The defense will get some steals, but Robinson is a capable passer in this scenario, so we’ll also get plenty of open 3Pt shots and opportunities to attack the closeout by the defender who dug down on Robinson.

Tshipman says his team averages two more 3Pt attempts than mine. On per game averages, I have the difference at only 0.4 attempts. In any event, our game plan assigns 104 minutes to players who shot better than .367 from 3Pt range, which means we will always have 2, and often have 3, excellent 3Pt shooters in the lineup at all times. Tshipman has assigned only 60 minutes to his good 3Pt shooters. We will therefore aim to work hard to get open 3Pt shots. Based on game planning and the fact that we have four capable 3Pt shooters to Tshipman’s 2, we should get significantly more quality 3Pt shots than our opponent.

We’ll also run a lot of PnR with Robinson and Grant between the top of the key and the 3-point line with Oscar, Pierce, Jones, and Butler. This should free up Pierce, who shot .404, Jones, who shot .375, Butler, who shot .367, and Cassell, who shot .398, for some 3-pointers, and Oscar for occasional 3-pointers and the mid-range shots at which he was excellent. It will also lead to some midrange pick and pops and drives to the basket for Robinson.

Tshipman plans to guard Robertson with Porter, on whom Robertson has 2 inches, because Robertson “is more dangerous as a passer than a scorer.” While Robertson did lead the league in assists in 1963-64, he also scored 31.4 PPG. His FG% for that year was .483, which was 50 points above the league average and 7th in the league. With his ability to get to the FTA, this resulted in a TS% of .576. In context, Robertson looks like quite a dangerous scorer to me, so we will work to get Robertson some space against Porter in which he can find the 2Pt shots at which he excelled.

Tshipman has an excellent defensive rebounding team. Therefore, we’ll prioritize getting back on defense over offensive rebounding and force them to face a set defense on the vast majority of possessions. Every one of my starters is also an excellent rebounder, so when we get the ball, we will push it down the court at every opportunity. We should often be able to face a defense that is not fully set and get open shots that way.

When Tshipman Has The Ball:

Rodman’s primary contribution on offense is offensive rebounding. To reduce that advantage, I am starting Horace Grant and assigning him to Rodman. Grant is himself an outstanding rebounder (18.2 DR%) who has three inches on Rodman. He should be able to temper Rodman’s ability to grab ORs. Grant is also an excellent offensive rebounder himself, which will further reduce this advantage. Considering his length and the fact that Rodman is not an outside shooter, Grant also will help protect the rim. His 1.6 blocks per 36 minutes is exceeded in this matchup only by Walton, Robinson, and Malone.

My other starters are good rebounders—Robinson 22.6 DR%, Butler 13.2%, Pierce 16.5%, and Oscar is the original triple double machine—so we should be able to defend the glass effectively.

Robinson will guard Walton, Pierce will guard Magic, Butler will guard Pippen, and Oscar will guard Porter. When Jones is in the game, he’ll take Pippen or Middleton or Magic. Pierce, Butler, Jones, and Robertson are all big and capable of switching onto anyone but Walton (and maybe Rasheed, but he’s only playing 6 minutes). Generally we will try to avoid having Grant switch off Rodman and Robinson switch off Walton, and instead hedge when either of them screens for Porter or Middleton. Otherwise Grant and Robinson will hang back and our defender will go under the screen. Porter is a good 3Pt shooter, so Robertson will guard him tightly. Pippen has to be respected, but at only .345 from 3Pt range, he does not need to be smothered at the 3Pt line. Magic, Rodman, and Walton are not good 3Pt shooters, so their men will hang back and dare them to shoot the outside shot. This will clog the lane and make it harder for Tshipman’s team to get to the rim. And when they do, Robinson and Grant will be waiting.

Tshipman plans to use Walton to draw Robinson to the high post and play a two-man game. Again, with everyone but Porter or Middleton, Robinson will hang back and the other defender will go under the screen. With the size and quickness of our defenders, we should be able to contest these shots to a decent extent, and if the ball handler gets a contested 2Pt shot, we’ll live with that.

Tshipman says he will use his “superior quickness to get Robinson jumping and finish around him.” Porter might have a quickness advantage over Robertson, and he’s the only good 3Pt shooter starting for Tshipman, so Robertson has to respect his outside shot, but other than that matchup I don’t see it. Porter also is the shortest guy on the floor, so it’s not obvious to me that he can easily finish around Robinson.

Tshipman says he is confident his “team will be able to clean the glass well and initiate the break.” He bases this in part on his contention that my team is small. But as noted above, my team is taller than his. He does, of course, have excellent rebounders in Walton and Robinson, so we will have to guard against the break. To that end, we will send only Grant to the offensive glass and otherwise focus on stopping the fast break. I think we have a team with sufficient size, speed, and quickness to significantly reduce Tshipman’s fast break opportunities.

The only good shooter on the bench to whom Tshipman is giving any minutes is Middleton. Thus, when his bench units are in, we’ll clog the lane as usual and otherwise adhere to our defensive game plan, which is to generally concede the offensive rebound to forestall the fast break, to force Tshipman to take mostly contested outside shots, and to take away Porter and Middleton, his two good 3Pt shooters.

* * *
At this stage, all the matchups are tight. Here, our massive advantage in FTA and in FT% shooting and our advantage in the number of capable 3Pt shooters should more than offset Tshipman’s 2-4 advantage in offensive rebounds and small advantage in 2Pt% shooting.
   414. tshipman Posted: June 30, 2020 at 12:10 PM (#5960364)
To me, this is a problem of game planning, not a problem with Wilt. As Dandy points out, when wasn't being force-fed the ball, offenses ran smoother, and Wilt's FG% went through the roof. This is why I think Wilt works so well for me in this tournament. I've been using Chris Paul and Rick Barry to run pick-and-roll every single game, so I can take advantage of Wilt's speed and leaping ability as a dive man, without asking him to try and be Bill Walton and pass the ball around. The 76ers asked him to change his game in his prime, and he did exactly that, so I think I'm being totally reasonable to Wilt and to the tournament by playing him the way I have.


See, this I disagree with. It took the 76ers *years* to convince Wilt that he shouldn't just get the ball every time down the court. I don't think it's fair to pick a player, and just say that you're going to get the best of that player. If you wanted the year where Wilt changed his game to be more team oriented, you should have picked that year.

The available evidence would suggest Howard is/was a much better defender than Wilt. Apologies if you're not suggesting that Wilt was on Howard's level on the defensive end.


I think this is way more mixed than you do. Wilt was probably the #2 defender in a league with Bill Russell. A lot of this comes down to the leagues they played in. Wilt was better against Kareem than Howard would have been. Howard was better coming off his man as a help defender.
   415. tshipman Posted: June 30, 2020 at 12:29 PM (#5960367)
Third, while Tshipman says his team averages “between 0.5 and 1 more steals” than mine, I am not sure that’s correct. Based on per 36 minute averages and using the minutes assigned for each team, I calculate that my team averages 9.6 steals compared to Tshipman’s 9.3. This is so even though my calculations exclude any steals for Robertson, as steals per 36 minutes were not recorded for 1963-64. At worst, we are equal in this measure, and at best I have a 1-1.5 steal advantage. I also appear to have an advantage in blocks of 7.2 to 6.1.


Someone's math is wrong. I'm crediting Oscar with 2 steals per 36 (which I think is reasonable based on his reputation). Yours should total up to 11.6, once weighted for playing time. Mine adds up to 12 (All my guys have theirs steals in the historical record). 9.6 is just definitely wrong and makes me suspect that you're off in your counting somewhere.

Second, we have a truly massive advantage in getting to the free throw line. Using per 36 minute averages and the minutes assigned for each team, I calculate that my team averages 47.9 FTA to his 31.2. As Tshipman acknowledges, we also shoot much better from the line. The six guys to whom I’m giving 36 or 30 minutes shoot .774 on 9.9 FTA (Robinson), .853 on 9.5 FTA (Robertson), .809 on 7 FTA (Pierce), .865 on 8.7 FTA (Butler), .864 on 5.4 FTA (Jones), and .741 on 4 FTA (Grant). Tshipman’s team is also slightly more foul-prone than mine at 17.3 PF compared to my 16.4, again calculated using per 36 minute averages and the minutes assigned for each team. His team starts 3 guys who shoot under .715 from the line. This should result in an extra 13-14 points for my team, not counting any secondary effects from foul trouble created.

Fourth, my team also is less turnover prone. Again using per 36 minute averages and the minutes assigned for each team, my team averages 12.6 turnovers versus Tshipman’s 16. My average does not include Robertson, and his does not include Walton. I’ll assume Robertson is slightly more turnover prone than Walton, which still yields an advantage of about 3 fewer turnovers per game.


So we haven't ever really had the conversation about FTs.

Turnovers and FTs are very similar to each other. You are more likely to generate both if you have the ball. As such, FT attempts tend to be out of whack in this tournament because a lot of these players are used to having the ball in their hands. I have generally left this stet because it's not worth arguing over, but I feel like many teams are overrating the amount of FTs they would receive.

If you look at the historical record, no team has ever averaged 47 FTs per game. The last time a team averaged over 42 was the '67 Philadelphia '76ers (say that five times fast). That was because teams went Hack-a-Wilt.

Declining FTA is a longstanding trend in the NBA, In the last 10 years, only two teams have averaged over 30 per game. If you project your team to take 20 3s, you probably shouldn't be projecting them to take more than about 25 FTs.

Adding high FTA players is not simply additive. As always, the 2011 Miami Heat are instructive. When LeBron went to Miami, the previous year, he and Dwyane Wade were two of the top 5 in FTA per 36, and Bosh was #7. The next year, only Wade was in the top 7, and Bosh fell all the way to 23rd in the NBA. So Jimmy Butler, on Harlond's team, isn't going to average 9 FTA per game. Not when David Robinson and Oscar have the ball so much. It's just not possible.

Again, I haven't really messed with this in my projections, but I feel like this is a conversation that we could have.
   416. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: June 30, 2020 at 12:51 PM (#5960371)
I think that is an excellent point, tship. Additionally, most (not all, but most) of the players in the tourney are average to above average defenders, so I also wouldn't be surprised if most of these guys actually committed fewer fouls than their averages as in general there are fewer extreme mismatches to exploit. The Jimmy Butler is a great example; he's not going to get the ball over and over to try and bait Magic into fouls.
   417. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 30, 2020 at 02:31 PM (#5960387)
See, this I disagree with. It took the 76ers *years* to convince Wilt that he shouldn't just get the ball every time down the court. I don't think it's fair to pick a player, and just say that you're going to get the best of that player.
It took Alex Hannum all of one season to convince Wilt and win a title.
   418. tshipman Posted: June 30, 2020 at 02:40 PM (#5960391)
It took Alex Hannum all of one season to convince Wilt and win a title.


He coached Wilt in 64 and 65 as well.
   419. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 30, 2020 at 03:01 PM (#5960397)
Yeah, but only one year in Philly. Those last two seasons in SF, it was basically Wilt on offense, waiting for Rogers to lob him the ball.
   420. spivey Posted: June 30, 2020 at 03:01 PM (#5960398)
It is interesting that Wilt's team's offenses, especially early, weren't that great. And Arizin and Guy Rodgers were HOFers. But!

Their ORtg as a team was 8 of 8 teams the year before Wilt went there, and when Wilt left - they were 9 out of 9 that year as well.

Back the basket may be an offensive grind today, but Wilt's TS+ was elite his entire career. Above Robinson and Hakeem, for instance. I realize we don't have full box score stats, but we also don't have +/- stats. My default is to blame his teammates more than Wilt.

Also, in Wilt's early years, his teams were consistently near the top of the league in pace. And pace was insanely high. Doesn't mean Wilt wasn't turnover prone, but I am curious how that high pace meshes with the idea that's being presented here that he was just back to the basket slow post-up game every play.
   421. tshipman Posted: June 30, 2020 at 03:25 PM (#5960409)
Also, in Wilt's early years, his teams were consistently near the top of the league in pace. And pace was insanely high. Doesn't mean Wilt wasn't turnover prone, but I am curious how that high pace meshes with the idea that's being presented here that he was just back to the basket slow post-up game every play.


Backpicks is really good on Wilt.

I know that it's kind of a meme at this point, but it really helped me understand Wilt.

Here's a video depicting how Wilt basically just ran from basket to basket.

In Thinking Basketball, Wilt is the case study for Global Offense. He produced unrivaled individual scoring numbers, but they did’t move the needle much for his team. It’s only when his game shifted away from volume-scoring that his team’s offenses flourished. He’s perhaps the ultimate illustration that individual offense does not automatically equate to successful team offense.

The simplest way to see this is to look at the correlations between his offensive outputs (the x-axis) and his team’s offensive efficiencies (the y-axis):


There’s a massive negative correlation (-0.76) between Wilt’s scoring attempts and his team’s offensive rating. So, the less Wilt shot, the better and better his team’s offenses performed. I won’t rehash what’s outlined in detail in the book, but needless to say, Wilt’s skill set described in the scouting report contributed to this phenomenon; not creating for teammates is extremely limiting.

   422. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 30, 2020 at 03:35 PM (#5960412)
Also, in Wilt's early years, his teams were consistently near the top of the league in pace. And pace was insanely high.
The accounts of Wilt's 100 point game were all about how Wilt would grab a rebound, throw it to Rodgers, then sprint down the court for easy baskets. Being bigger, stronger, and faster than everyone else in the league is one way to shoot 9% better than the rest of the league. In this tournament, Wilt's not necessarily bigger than everyone else, but he was carrying an easy 280 in his prime, still be one of the fastest bigs in the league, and a great leaper.

   423. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 30, 2020 at 03:48 PM (#5960417)
not creating for teammates is extremely limiting.
This is why I think I'm optimizing Wilt. I'm not counting on him to create, I'm counting on him to finish. Because he does have the midrange fade, Wilt's defenders have to come with him on PnRs, and it's very easy to visual Chris Paul-to-Wilt Lob City actions from there. I'm not forcing iso post-ups except on mismatches, and not asking Wilt to handle the ball, so I'm avoiding the problems that Wilt's real life teams had during his prime. I read Backpicks, too.

So far in the tourney, Wilt's been matched up against Yao, Ewing, Walton, Kareem, Hakeem, and Jokic. Hakeem is better, but it's close. We know Real Kareem only shot 46% against Real Wilt because Wilt's strength and leaping ability gave Kareem fits. Everyone else on that list, Wilt's has some advantages against, either offensively, defensively, or both.
   424. tshipman Posted: June 30, 2020 at 04:18 PM (#5960429)
So far in the tourney, Wilt's been matched up against Yao, Ewing, Walton, Kareem, Hakeem, and Jokic. Hakeem is better, but it's close. We know Real Kareem only shot 46% against Real Wilt because Wilt's strength and leaping ability gave Kareem fits. Everyone else on that list, Wilt's has some advantages against, either offensively, defensively, or both.


So I get that you're going to be annoyed by this response, but I would say that in the year chosen, Wilt is the worst of that group or maybe second worst.

I think this gets back to DLGM's comment that started this sub-thread.
   425. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 30, 2020 at 04:41 PM (#5960439)
So I get that you're going to be annoyed by this response, but I would say that in the year chosen, Wilt is the worst of that group or maybe second worst.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
   426. tshipman Posted: June 30, 2020 at 04:49 PM (#5960443)
I would say that '67 Wilt would be the best or second best in that list.
   427. tshipman Posted: July 01, 2020 at 12:50 PM (#5960551)
So on the one hand, I'm glad to be done with the tournament, and I rate Harlond's team to be about the same level as mine, so losing isn't that big of a deal.

One the other hand, I am annoyed that the two voters who included a comment said that they voted based on FT numbers, which I think is a pretty obviously wrong argument.
   428. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: July 01, 2020 at 03:18 PM (#5960587)

One the other hand, I am annoyed that the two voters who included a comment said that they voted based on FT numbers, which I think is a pretty obviously wrong argument.


I didn't think it was going to be like 25 FTs more or whatever but I thought it'd be more and also if you're scaling down FTs on usage (which is right) then you should also scale down turnovers on usage, so he'd have a bigger turnover advantage also.
   429. Jtsports01 Posted: July 01, 2020 at 03:42 PM (#5960592)
So the rubber match...
Starters
86 Bird 36
18 Davis 36
19 Jokic 30
18 Oladipo 36
70 Frazier 24
Bench
07 Battier 24
90 Mullin 24
82 Moncrief 18
67 Thurmond 6
06 Brand 6
Changes from game 1
Oladipo (+16), Mullin (+8), Battier (+4) replace Jokic (-6), Moncrief (-12), Frazier (-6), Thurmond (-4)
This should give my team much more shooting/spacing while taking only a slight hit in overall defensive ability, which will be compensated by our change in assignment with Brow guarding Robinson for 30 minutes.

Advantages – perimeter defense, passing. My starting 5 averages 5.88 assists per game and Bird and Jokic are two of the best ever at their positions, while his averages only 4.82. Bird and Mullin are the two best off ball players in this matchup, and this helps create open looks for their teammates. Bird is probably the best off-ball forward of all time. We will try to have one of these guys on the floor at all times, but we obviously need to be able to hide Mullin defensively.

Offense. First option is find Bird for open looks coming off screens. Next we want to attack with Davis in the post, and run screen and rolls with Bird/Davis and Oladipo/Davis. Assuming Robinson is on Jokic again we will have him at the top of the key where he can serve as an outlet for pick and roll action, set up Bird/Oladipo with dribble handoffs or shoot open 15fts (82.5% ft shooter) or open threes (35.6% on wide open 3's).
If Robinson guards Davis then we go to Jokic in the post where he should be able to dominate anyone else on his roster.

Both Bird and Jokic had offensive ratings of 127 while playing extended playoff minutes (770 and 557 minutes) in the year selected.

Whenever Donyell Marshall is on the floor we will attack him with Davis or Jokic.

The twelve minutes that Robinson is not on the floor our guards Moncrief, Mullin and Oladipo, (7.2, 7.3 and 4.9 ft attempts per game) can drive to the basket. When Cassell and Moses are in the game we will run pick and roll all day, with 6 minutes of Davis lobs and six minutes of Jokic drives down the lane.

The 6 minutes of the game where Thurmond matches up with Robinson we'll have Oladipo (37%, Mullin 37% (64.3TS%), Bird 42.3% and Battier 42.1% creating offense on the perimeter.

Defense: one of Frazier/Moncrief or Battier are going to be guarding Oscar at all times. Robinson will get 30 minutes of Davis and 6 minutes of Thurmond. Davis is three inches shorter then Robinson but has a 4inch wingspan advantage, is the same weight, was 1st team all defense and led the league in blocks, so he matches up pretty well.

When Oscar is the ballhandler on the pick and roll we should be able to go under the screen and dare him to shoot long range, this will allow Davis to sag and eliminate any easy lobs. If Robinson wants to pop we will be happy to let him shoot long jumpers.

We mostly plan to stay with shooters with the occasional double when he puts the ball on the floor. I expect he will start Grant/Simmons over Marshall so this will allow Jokic or Bird, two excellent position defenders, to sag in the paint and help on any pick and rolls. If he starts Marshall that will give his offense more space but leaves a giant spot for us to attack on offense.

Overall my starters average over 2 steals a game (assuming 3 for Frazier) so with only Oscar an elite level passer we should be able to pick up some extra possessions there.

Summary
His best offensive players (Oscar/Admiral) are being guarded by elite defenders, while my best players are going against somewhat less than that. With more shooting on the floor then last time my team's offense is going to open up enough to make the difference. Having Davis and Thurmond exclusively on the Admiral will help limit his offense.
   430. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: July 01, 2020 at 04:09 PM (#5960601)
whatever happened to landry fields?
   431. Booey Posted: July 01, 2020 at 04:13 PM (#5960603)
So is the next game round 3 of JTSports vs Harlond?
   432. tshipman Posted: July 01, 2020 at 04:43 PM (#5960615)
I didn't think it was going to be like 25 FTs more or whatever but I thought it'd be more and also if you're scaling down FTs on usage (which is right) then you should also scale down turnovers on usage, so he'd have a bigger turnover advantage also.


No, that's not how it works.

Steals are the most independent stat. Offensive rebounds are mostly independent. These skills are scalable: if you take two players with high steals, and add them on a team, you get more steals.

Turnovers are a dependent stat. To turn the ball over, you have to have the ball (with a few exceptions). James Harden is a good illustration of this. Harden led the league in turnovers in 16-17, averaging 5.7 per game. However, the Rockets actually had more turnovers when he was off the court than on the court. In 2018, Chris Paul joined the Rockets. Chris Paul has a low turnover rate for a point guard, but a high turnover rate overall. Both players had their turnovers drop in 2018, and Houston's overall turnovers dropped from the year prior. Chris Paul and James Harden both also pick up a fair amount of steals. And sure enough, in 2018, the Rockets averaged *more* steals than they did before.

Turnovers are incorrect to simply add up. Instead, you have to evaluate whether a given player increases or decreases net turnovers. Star offensive engines rarely increase turnovers. Magic handled the ball a ton in '87, and had a high turnover total: 3.8 per game. He was fourth in the league in total turnovers. However, Los Angeles was one of the top teams in terms of turnover prevention: they had the 9th *fewest* turnovers.

Turnovers by bigs and turnovers by offensive initiators are not the same thing. Bigs turn the ball over on strips. Losing the ball because someone knocks it out of your hands is pretty much always bad. Losing the ball because you are trying to create an offensive advantage by passing is not always bad: it's not ideal for a point guard to have zero turnovers because he's probably not taking enough risks.
   433. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 01, 2020 at 04:49 PM (#5960616)
So is the next game round 3 of JTSports vs Harlond?
YES.
   434. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 01, 2020 at 08:06 PM (#5960642)
I didn't write a rationale because it was so late in the evening, but some thoughts on TShip vs. Harlond:

Someone (I can't remember who) noted in rationales that no team in the tournament relied as heavily on one player as TShip does on Magic. The 36-minute limit hurt him more than anyone, and reasonable defensive options against him hurt more as well. Harlond's defense is really good matching up, talent-wise. Pierce is strong enough not to get bullied by Magic, while Robinson's length and quickness is a really tough match for Walton, both scoring and passing. I can see Butler's physicality giving Pippen absolute fits.

Harlond using Grant to clog the lanes even with Robinson in the high post with Walton is a champ move. TShip's best individual iso scorers need to get into the lane, and Harlond's always got someone there. Because the half-court defense is so good, and because Harlond is basically conceding offensive rebounds to bolster his transition defense, I think he has enough to take enough out of TShip's attack to win a close series.
   435. Harlond Posted: July 02, 2020 at 09:03 AM (#5960671)
Damn, looks like I'm having to play on the second night of a back-to-back.
   436. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 02, 2020 at 11:27 AM (#5960697)
BY THE WAY, the Bulls new FO still hasn't fired Jim Boylen. Supposedly, the FO has been back in Chicago, and meeting people face to face was one the reasons given for not making coaching decisions - but that was over a month ago. Every Bulls beat writer, except the reprehensible Joe Cowley, has been extremely vague and almost defensive. For example:

Mike McGraw @McGrawDHBulls

Not sure what #Bulls will do with their coaching situation. But keep in mind, the front office rebuild was expensive & #NBA revenues are way, way down. If Karnisovas has a blank check to do whatever he wants with a new coach, more power to him. But I'll believe it when i see it


I believe Boylen is the lowest paid coach in the league. I also think the Bulls are done paying Fred Hoiberg. Besides, the Bulls have a shitton of money, and getting a new FO bought them some goodwill. It would be a shame to waste that over a couple million and Boylen.

Mike McGraw @McGrawDHBulls

Another issue with #Bulls: They can't do much with roster because of Porter, Felicio contracts. Everything points to changes in '21. If a new coach wins 25 games this yr, what do they have to sell? If Boylen wins 25 games, they can replace him.


This is just ####### stupid. Their young players aren't improving, they're regressing. Another wasted year would be moronic.
   437. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: July 02, 2020 at 11:30 AM (#5960699)
fields - he got hurt. nerve damage in his arm caused him to adopt a totally different shooting form and then he had a hip labral tear.
   438. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: July 02, 2020 at 11:36 AM (#5960701)
fta in this tourney - i guess this is outside of how the rules for this thing work but - refs would work this games differently than your average game and would swallow their whistles more. (i guess i'm echoing tship)

wilt on offense: the idea of treating young wilt as an upscale and more extreme dwight howard is one i agree with. what a strange player.
(this is not to disparage dwight, obv.)
   439. tshipman Posted: July 02, 2020 at 02:04 PM (#5960734)
I think Wilt as Dwight + 3 inches is a really good description.

Wilt also has the weird teammate/headcase vibe, too.
   440. Harlond Posted: July 02, 2020 at 02:44 PM (#5960742)
Harlond vs JTS--Part 1

On offense, it appears to me we have three advantages over JTS’ starters that should result in an efficient offense. We have a small overall quickness advantage, especially against Jokic and Bird, and we have an overall speed advantage. We also get to the free throw line far more often than JTS. Adjusted to a per 36 minute basis and accounting for minutes assigned, my starters get 47.4% more FTA than JTS, and overall my team gets 27% more FTA. That advantage should net us 5-7 more points per game. We should be able to get favorable matchups and open shots running PnRs against Jokic and Bird. We also should be able to get out on the break and the semi-break and get good shots that way.

On defense, we have a team of big, switchable defenders with good rim protection. We should be able to force the opposing offense into contested outside shots from good shooters or less contested shots from worse shooters. And since every starter is a good rebounder, we should be able to defend the glass effectively to support the break, where we have both Robertson and Simmons to wreak havoc.

JTS claims to have advantages in passing and perimeter defense. His calculation that his starters average 5.88 APG versus my 4.82 was based on the assumption that Marshall or Grant would start. With Simmons in the starting lineup, I calculate that my starters average 5.3 APG, based on per-36 minute averages and assigned minutes versus his 5.04. With Cassell and Jones coming off the bench, I calculate that we have a very slight edge in assists on an entire team basis. Too slight to call it an advantage either way, but enough to say neither team has an advantage in this area.

JTS may have an advantage in perimeter defense, but if he does, it is small. Oladipo, Frazier, Battier, and Moncrief are all excellent perimeter defenders, but so are Butler (4-time All-NBA 2nd team on defense), Jones (3-time All-NBA 2nd team on defense), and Simmons (a contender for DPOY this season—excellent-in-depth article on Simmons’ defense at https://thepaintedlines.com/the-defensive-evolution-of-ben-simmons/). And JTS’ four perimeter defenders are assigned the same number of minutes as my three. This does not include the fact that Bird and Mullin, assigned 60 minutes, also are defenders who will spend considerable—and challenging—time guarding the perimeter, whereas on my side only Cassell (12 minutes) and Marshall (6 minutes) are likely to spend much time on the perimeter. Moreover, by my calculations, neither team has an advantage in steals, not surprising since all of Jones, Butler, Pierce, and Simmons had a Stl% in excess of 2.4%, Jones leading the way at 3.5%.
I’m not talking down JTS’ defenders, but in toto I am not persuaded that his perimeter defense has any more than a very small advantage, if any, over mine.

My Lineup:

PG Robertson (1963-64)—(36)
SG Pierce (2001-02)—(36)
SF Butler (2016-17)—(36)
SF Simmons (2019-20)—(30)
C Robinson (1994-95)—(36)

PG Cassell (2003-04)—(12)
SG Jones (1999-00)—(36)
PF Marshall (2003-04)—(6)
PF Grant (1991-92)—(6)
C Malone (1982-83)—(6)

JTS:

PG Frazier
SG Oladipo
SF Bird
PF Davis
C Jokic

Offense:

My team starts with Robertson. JTS has assigned an excellent defender, Frazier, to Robertson. On an overall basis, Frazier had reasonable success against Robertson in the 34 games they played against each other. Most of that success, however, came after Robertson passed 30 years of age. In his prime, Robertson had excellent success against Frazier, owning 15 of the top-scoring games in the series, none with fewer than 24 points and 9 over 30, and all 10 of the top FTA games. I am playing Robertson’s age 25 season, so despite Frazier’s (or Moncrief’s) defense, I am confident Robertson can get his points. Especially since we will have Simmons do dribble-handoffs and screens and Robinson set picks to free up Robertson for the mid-range shots at which he excelled or get him into the lane against a disrupted defense.

Unlike most big men, Robinson does not have a significant quickness/explosiveness disadvantage against AD. While we will focus most of our offense on Robertson and whoever, Jokic, Bird, or Mullin is guarding, we will keep AD occupied by feeding the ball to Robinson in the high post and giving him a chance to operate. We’ll also run a lot of PnR with Robinson between the top of the key and the 3-point line with Oscar, Pierce, and Butler. This should free up Pierce, who shot .404, and Butler, who shot .367 (.553 from the corners) for some 3-pointers, and Oscar for occasional 3-pointers and mid-range shots. It will also lead to some midrange pick and pops and drives to the basket for Robinson. If there’s a switch and Robinson ends up with Oladipo, Frazier, or Moncrief on him, he can shoot over them or bully his way to the basket. Robinson likes to go right, so we’ll often post Butler and Pierce on Robinson’s right side where they can get an open 3Pt if their man digs down. Both are also good at attacking the closeout, and like Robinson and Robertson, they draw a lot of fouls.

Given JTS’ lineup, that puts either Jokic or Bird on Simmons. Jokic can’t really guard Butler or Pierce away from the basket, so it seems likely he will guard Simmons. Jokic will not guard Simmons at the 3Pt line (though Simmons did make .333 of his 3Pt attempts), but we’ll have Simmons run PnRs (acting as the screener) and dribble handoffs with Robertson, Pierce, and Butler. If Jokic hangs back, as he will want to do, the ball handler either gets an open look if his defender goes under the screen or a downhill run at Jokic if the defender comes over. Pierce (15.7%) and Butler (24.8%) both have good Ast%, and Oscar is Oscar, so all should be reasonably effective finding an open man once they’re in the lane. Also, if Jokic overplays the handoff or hedges, Simmons himself could get a downhill run at the basket with the ball or as the roll man and he is deadly in that scenario.

That means Bird is guarding Butler or Pierce. Bird is an excellent off-ball defender, but not the best perimeter defender in space. And that’s exactly where we will post Butler and Pierce most of the time. That will give them a chance to use their quickness to break Bird down. And when they don’t have the ball, their threat as 3Pt shooters means Bird cannot cheat into the passing lanes as he likes to do without giving up wide-open 3Pt.

JTS is playing Mullin 24 minutes. When he is in the game, we will attack him relentlessly. JTS doesn’t say who Mullin will guard, but any of Robertson, Butler, Pierce, Jones, Cassell, or Simmons should be able to seize a sizable advantage against Mullin. Since all of those guys are capable at attacking off the dribble, we should get consistent opportunities to play against a broken-down defense when Mullin is in the game.

With AD, Jokic, and Bird, JTS has an excellent defensive rebounding team, and fantastic outlet passers. Therefore, we’ll prioritize getting back on defense over offensive rebounding and force JTS to face a set defense on the vast majority of possessions. Every one of my starters is also a good defensive rebounder, so when we get the ball, we will push it down the court at every opportunity. Given our speed advantage over Bird and Jokic, we should have an edge in fast-break points. But we also should often be able to face a defense that is not fully set and get open shots or mismatches that way. Simmons in particular should be able to beat his man down court and give us a fair number of 5-on-4s and 4-on-3s.

For the few minutes they are in, Malone (16.8 OR%) and Grant (14.3 OR%) will go hard for offensive rebounds. We’ll generally put two good 3Pt shooters on the same side as Malone to create post-up opportunities for Malone (which will get him to the free throw line—10.3 FTA per game) or open three-pointers for Jones and Cassell. Otherwise, we will eschew the offensive rebound and focus on half-court defense.

   441. Harlond Posted: July 02, 2020 at 02:44 PM (#5960743)
Harlond v. JT Sports--Part 2

Defense:

JTS starts two good 3Pt shooters, Bird and Oladipo. We’ll match Pierce against Bird and stick to him like glue, switching as necessary. If JTS tries to isolate Bird on Robinson or Simmons, we’ll hedge to prevent the outside shot and not switch (Simmons could easily switch and Robinson is quick and mobile enough that he could do OK on the switch). We’ll match Butler against Oladipo and do the same. On other plays, everyone else can lay off against Jokic, AD, and Frazier and help as needed. Jones can spell Butler on Bird and Oladipo without giving up too much offensively or defensively. When Mullin and Battier are in the game, Cassell, Jones, Butler, and Pierce can share the assignments. We will play them essentially the same way we play Bird and Oladipo.

Robertson will guard Frazier or Moncrief when they are in the game. Of the 34 games Frazier and Robertson played against each other, Frazier owns 14 of the bottom 20 scoring games, none with more than 14 points. Robertson should be up to this assignment.

Simmons will be in the game whenever Jokic is in the game. Generally, however, he will guard AD. Simmons has the quickness to guard AD on the perimeter and the size to guard him inside. Plus Simmons is excellent at deflections and steals in the lane (as noted in the article cited above—if the President can read, so can you), so when AD posts up, steal and deflection opportunities will be there. AD was a .340 3pt shooter, but only .333 away from the corners and only .339 between 16ft and the three-point line. With his size and length, Simmons will be able to contest AD’s outside shots without foregoing the ability to keep the lane crowded. Moreover, Robinson will often be available to help, and Robertson will also dig down off of Frazier or Moncrief.

Robinson will generally be assigned to Jokic (along with Malone if he is in the game). This approach will generally keep Robinson in the lane where he can protect the rim (5.9 Blk%). Jokic was a .307 3pt shooter, and he shot .346 between 16ft and the three-point line. Robinson thus will be able to hang back in the lane in most cases. The goal, insofar as possible, is to make the good outside shooters on JTS’ starting team really earn their shots while keeping the ball out of the paint. My team of big switchable quick defenders is well-suited to achieving this goal.

My starters are all good rebounders—Robinson 22.6 DR%, Simmons 18.0%, Butler 13.2%, Pierce 16.5%, and Oscar is the original triple double machine—so we should be able to defend the glass effectively and get out on the break frequently. This remains true when Malone (25.9 DR%), Marshall (23.1 DR%), Grant (18.2 DR%), and Jones (10.3 DR%) are in the lineup. Coupled with our overall speed advantage, this should make for frequent fast break and semi-fast break opportunities. With 88 minutes assigned to Robertson, Simmons, and Cassell, we will never be without someone highly effective at running the break, and because of their size, handle, and ability to get where they want to go, Simmons and Robertson are especially effective in both fast breaks and delayed breaks. With Pierce, Butler, and Jones also on the court for 108 minutes, we should get excellent 3Pt opportunities out of these situations.

For the 12 minutes that Robinson is not in the game, JTS proposes to have his guards attack the rim. However, when Robinson is out, some combination of Malone (1.9 BLK/36), Grant (1.6), and Marshall (1.5) will be in, and they offer decent rim protection. JTS also plans to runs lobs to AD for six minutes and Jokic for six minutes when Malone and Cassell are in the game. It’s not obvious to me why those matchups will arise. My plan is to match Malone’s six minutes to Thurmond’s. If AD or Jokic is in the game also, Malone is not hedging no matter who Cassell is guarding. We can live with that for six minutes.

Nobody is going to stop Bird and AD from getting their shots, but with the defenders I have, we should be able to make them take mostly contested outside shots and make the other players take shots at which they are not very efficient. That should result in an inefficient offense for them with frequent break opportunities for us.

Scoring:

I think I have defenders big and quick enough to make JTS’ 3Pt shooters take mostly contested outside shots and to contest every other starters’ shots if taken within their zone of efficiency. Our defensive strategy generally is to lay off Jokic and AD from 16ft out, keep Robinson in the lane, and live with the results, which in view of their results that season should not be very efficient. If AD heats up, Simmons can contest even out there. I think I have an advantage in speed over Bird and Jokic, especially given Simmons’ and Robertson’s ability to both rebound and start the break, that will give me fast breaks and mismatches that should result in efficient shots. I should get to the free throw line significantly more often than JTS, and since I have an excellent free throw shooting team, I should get a significant advantage there also. Also, I think my team is better suited to making JTS pay for playing Mullin so much than his team is at attacking any defender to whom I am giving significant minutes.

   442. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 02, 2020 at 05:06 PM (#5960781)
Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn

The NBA is closing in on signing off on a second “bubble” in Chicago for the eight teams that were not invited to play in Orlando, enabling mini-training camps and subsequent games against other clubs with a target date of September, sources tell ESPN’s Jackie MacMullan.


KC Johnson is suggested the WinTrust Arena, which is the new place DePaul plays right next to McCormick Center and a large hotel.
   443. Jtsports01 Posted: July 02, 2020 at 07:46 PM (#5960800)
Stiggles, has Ben Simmons ever been the screener on a pick and roll?
   444. tshipman Posted: July 02, 2020 at 09:51 PM (#5960814)
Stiggles, has Ben Simmons ever been the screener on a pick and roll?


It's pretty rare.

3.5% of his possessions in 2020
1.2% of his possessions in 2019

He's basically average at it when he does it, but you should probably assume that he is picking his chances.
   445. Harlond Posted: July 02, 2020 at 10:37 PM (#5960818)
Here's some video of Simmons as roll man.

https://www.libertyballers.com/2019/1/11/18172898/philadelphia-76ers-sixers-unlocking-ben-simmons-pick-and-roll-jimmy-butler-joel-embiid

And here's an article from January 2020 about the Sixers' plans to use Simmons' more as a roll man.

https://sixerswire.usatoday.com/2020/01/05/sixers-to-use-ben-simmons-more-as-roller-rather-than-ball-handler/

Given Simmons' athleticism and skill level, I don't think it's a stretch.
   446. tshipman Posted: July 02, 2020 at 10:56 PM (#5960819)
He has as many PnR possessions as Joe harris, Anzejs Pasecniks, or Ben McLemore, and was below average in his possessions this year (44th percentile).

Assuming that a player who rarely performs a skill and is below average in the real life NBA would be effective in this league seems beyond belief to me.
   447. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: July 03, 2020 at 12:26 AM (#5960834)
Sorry, fell behind!

#14 HARLOND 8, #3 DCA 7
DCA eliminated; Harlond remains alive in two-loss bracket

People generally agreed this was a matchup of strong defenses. In a very close match, Harlond took it 8-7 to eliminate Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and DCA.

Harlond voters:

<< I don't see Wade and Erving, who I think are the key to DCA's lineup, shaking their versatile defenders often enough to really impact the game. >>
<< I like Harlond's defensive gameplan to match up with them... I also think his bench is better by a big enough margin to make a difference. >>
<< I don't think either team will generate particularly efficient offense...What concerns me, however, is Love on Butler. Jimmy would relish a matchup like that. >>
<< This is a fun matchup. Ultimately, I think both teams have good answers for the other team's top players ... DCA's offense includes a lot of guys who want to live in the same spots, and I think it'll get mucked up. >>

DCA voters:
<< Ultimately, I go with DCA because both teams will struggle in the half-court, but the defensive rebounding to trigger the transition game is the argument I buy as being the most pivotal. >>
<< Harlond doesn't take enough advantage of [Kevin Love] by just going small >>
<< I thought DCA had shot himself in the foot with the Stockton guarding Butler plan. Harlond going small with Eddie Jones really gave DCA an out there. >>

DCA Epitaph: Lost to Lange 23-4; beat Slivers 11-7; lost to Hombre 11-9; beat NJ 9-8; lost to Harlond 8-7

After getting blown out by Team Lange in their opening matchup, where the unorthodox Joakim Noah at PG drew lots of skepticism, DCA went to a more traditional lineup and split four close games with no shortage of drama. Ultimately it's hard to say where they fell short; Kevin Love's defense seemed to come up as an Achilles' heel, but also they played close games against other talented teams and it's not clear there's a moral. It did seem like #3 overall pick Kareem Abdul-Jabbar struggled to dominate these matchups, not really being the big swing factor and mostly being canceled out by lower picks.

DCA's biggest fans: tyhand7 voted for DCA four times before giving a thumbs down in this elimination contest. Harlond voted for DCA three times (all except vs Lange) before, of course, this self-matchup.
DCA's biggest skeptics: Dandy Little Glove Man voted against DCA all five times. JJ1986 voted against DCA four times (abstaining once), as did Moses (voting for DCA only in this matchup, curiously).
   448. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: July 03, 2020 at 12:29 AM (#5960835)
#1 JJ1986 11, #2 WILLARD 3
JJ remains only undefeated team; Willard falls to one-loss bracket

The matchup of LeBron James and Michael Jordan failed to deliver, as LeBron and Co. cruised to an easy win, making JJ1986 the clear toeam to beat in the tournament. People called out the versatility of team JJ with many defenders to throw at Jordan and team.

JJ voters:
<< PG13 on Jordan and LBJ on Dirk are perfect defenders for Willard's two main offensive threats >>
<< I see the part where JJ's team has a way to attack Jordan on defense, but Willard doesn't have a rejoiner for Lebron >>
<< I think JJ has a bit more versatility for matching up, and really impressed with all his options to throw at MJ. >>
<< JJ also has a team that is far more switchable on defense than Willard's, which I think means JJ can create bad matchups more readily than Willard. >>
<< I think they have significantly more defenders to throw at Jordan and Dirk >>
<< I think that Draymond would struggle to cover Mourning and KAT for 36 minutes >>


   449. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: July 03, 2020 at 12:35 AM (#5960836)
#11 HOMBRE 11, #10 JTSPORTS 3
Hombre remains in one-loss bracket; JJ falls to two-loss bracket

A second romp in a row following a series of close games, with Hombre dominating. Rationales were somewhat all over the place on this one.

JT Voters:
<< I really like this matchup for JT. He has elite defenders for each of Hombre's primary options, particularly including Frazier on CP3, Oladipo on Barry, and AD on Wilt. >>
<< I like Hombre's defense, but I think JT has enough passing and shooting to overcome it. >>

Hombre voters:
<< Wilt dominates. All hail Wilt. >>
<< I like Hombre's defensive adjustments, moving Odom into the starting lineup to guard Bird, and using Embiid to check whichever of Davis or Jokic isn't being guarded by Wilt. >>
<< JTS's defense isn't ideal for matching up with this Hombre. >>
<< In a defensive series, I have Wilt as be the best individual scorer and JT's team lacks the dominant outside shooting to take advantage of Hombre's strategy. >>
<< I like Chris Paul as an unstoppable weapon in the mid-range ... and I totally buy rebounding dominance from team Hombre. >>
   450. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: July 03, 2020 at 12:44 AM (#5960838)
#14 HARLOND 7, #7 TSHIPMAN 4
Harlond remains in two-loss bracket; tshipman eliminated

It was the end of the road for Magic Johnson and friends as Harlond pulled a solid 7-4 victory out. Not a ton of comments but people agreed it'd be a high scoring game.

TSHIPMAN EPITAPH: lost to Winter's Night 14-10; beat Dolf Lucky 13-4; lost to Hombre 8-7; beat Stiggles 10-7; beat Winter's Night 10-5; beat Lange 10-3 (walkover); lost to Harlond 7-4.

tship's vision was to have Magic running an upgraded Showtime. But this didn't seem to sway voters a lot; when they won, it wasn't because of the devastating break but rather from a well-balanced attack on both sides of the ball. After losing two of their first three games, the team pulled it together to win three in a row, including getting revenge against Winter's Night, but finally ran out of gas against team Harlond in their fourth elimination game in a row.

tship's biggest fans: TShip definitely had some big fans. jmurph voted for TShip all seven games (!). Mellow Mouse voted for TShip six times and against him once (against Lange, oddly enough); Moses voted for him five times and against him only once; Hombre voted for him four times and against him once.
tship's biggest skeptics: Dolf Lucky voted against TShip five times and never voted for him. Lange voted for him once and against him four times; DCA voted for him twice and against him five times.
   451. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 03, 2020 at 04:28 AM (#5960843)
Remember to vote!
   452. Jtsports01 Posted: July 03, 2020 at 08:29 AM (#5960851)
On a team where Oscar Robertson is going to be the primary ball handler Simmons seems like an awful fit offensively, and I’m not sure he’s that great defensively for the assignment of guarding Anthony Davis.
   453. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 03, 2020 at 01:15 PM (#5960877)
####### another ####### vote I missed. ####.
   454. Jtsports01 Posted: July 03, 2020 at 03:10 PM (#5960886)
How would you have voted Moses?
   455. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: July 03, 2020 at 06:06 PM (#5960904)
Today felt like a weekend and so I missed out. Bad me. I think this is the first vote I have missed.
   456. JJ1986 Posted: July 03, 2020 at 06:10 PM (#5960906)
I think this is the second vote I've missed - both times because I was not working on a Friday. I would have leaned towards JT again, but that wasn't 100%.
   457. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 03, 2020 at 08:22 PM (#5960922)
6-3 is a low vote total, and the margin's small. There's at least another half-dozen votes out there, more than enough to swing the match. I suspect the holiday weekend has something to do with people missing out on things. If there are no objections from JTSports, I want to push the deadline to Monday, and let other people get in on voting.
   458. tshipman Posted: July 03, 2020 at 09:53 PM (#5960935)
We definitely need a revote now, given that one of JT's starters is out:

Shams Charania
@ShamsCharania
Indiana Pacers star Victor Oladipo has decided to sit out of the resumed NBA season, Oladipo told
@TheAthleticNBA

   459. Jtsports01 Posted: July 03, 2020 at 10:57 PM (#5960940)
No objections here
   460. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: July 03, 2020 at 11:55 PM (#5960948)
push the deadline to Monday
Alea iacta est. Rock the vote, y'all.
   461. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: July 04, 2020 at 03:27 PM (#5961028)
Stiggles, has Ben Simmons ever been the screener on a pick and roll?
maybe.

the sixers don't run many pick and rolls in general, and they don't usually have a 2nd ballhandler alongside simmons**, so it's fairly unlikely that he's had any meaningful usage in that role.


** goddaminit sixers; how the #### could you choose tobais harris over jimmy ####### butler.


   462. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 05, 2020 at 12:14 PM (#5961153)
If you haven't voted yet in the latest game, please do.
   463. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 05, 2020 at 01:37 PM (#5961168)
I would definitely have voted, if I didn't have guests over. I will vote by Monday.
   464. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 06, 2020 at 12:07 PM (#5961293)
Game 35 is finally over, and thanks for everyone who voted over the holiday weekend pushing the final total from just nine to 18 votes. JTSports was leading 6-3 over Harlond before the weekend, and wins outright 12-6.

There are only four games left to go. (Maybe five.)
   465. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 06, 2020 at 06:04 PM (#5961346)
The CoronaTourney has been grinding since early April, and as we approach the end, I can sense a certain level of fatigue as teams are getting knocked out and the prospect of a real season is at hand. With two weeks left to go, I want to finish strong.

GAME 35: HOMBRE VS. WILLARD

A rematch for my team against Willard's Jordan-led squad. I got beat soundly the first time around, so I went back to look through the comment sections to see what wisdom I could glean from the crowd. The two biggest points made were that CP3 was not a good matchup for Jordan, and that Barry was a bad matchup with Dirk. Moses made the point that the only gameplan that was effective against MJ's teams was to beat him up. So....

STARTERS:
Chris Paul 2009 (36)
Clyde Drexler 1992 (36)
Rick Barry 1975 (36)
Joel Embiid 2020 (30)
Wilt Chamberlain 1964 (36)

BENCH:
Lamar Odom 2011 (12)
Kyle Lowry 2016 (6)
Pau Gasol 2011 (24)
Charles Barkley 1988 (6)
Brandon Roy 2009 (18)

DEFENSE

CP3 goes to Payton, Drexler goes to Jordan, and Barry goes to Green. Embiid goes to Dirk and Wilt gets Ewing. (I'm assuming Willard's previous starting five against me.) I'm embracing my size. What this really does is free up three excellent help defenders in CP3, Barry, and Embiid to jump passing lanes and help Drexler hassle Jordan on his way to Wilt at the basket. It's all about Jordan, of course. Payton and Ewing can't go into their post-ups without completely clogging the lane for Jordan, and neither of them are shooters. If Draymond isn't straight away from 25, I'm not worried about him, either. I want to make Jordan finish against two great defensive 7-footers, while two steals leaders hawking the passing lanes.

Nearly 80% of Dirk's 3s that season were assisted, so forcing Jordan to pass over Embiid and Dirk to shoot over Embiid makes life tougher for both of them. Also, if you look at Dirk's heat map vs. Draymond's heat map for their drafted seasons, it's the same map. My perimeter guys really only have to focus on the area straight away while my big guys jam up the paint. I ugly it up, I use my bigs to clear the boards, and keep things slow and close.

OFFENSE

Pick and roll to the basket. Wilt, Embiid, and Drexler are all great finishers, and I want to foul Ewing out. First time around, people questioned Barkley's efficiency against Green. This time, I'm using Embiid as the second big dive man. The Real Life Warriors used Durant to help Green on Embiid. Willard doesn't have a spare 7-footer to help Green here unless he leaves Wilt unguarded -- unless it's Dirk, which would be great for me. This is going to work because Paul and Barry are great half-court quarterbacks who have no problems taking the open outside shot and, along with Drexler, I have enough ball handling that I can keep the ball moving without being forced into a ton of unnecessary passes that yield steals.

A lot has been written here about Wilt, but there's universal agreement that he's a great finisher and a crazy athlete. Wilt's faster than Ewing, and coming off picks-and-rolls, that's a difficult cover for Ewing. Embiid is going to be too big and strong for Green or Dirk, and Drexler is going to be a difficult cover going to the basket. If I get Ewing in foul trouble, then that leaves only Millsap as the big man off the bench. If my guys make that happen, I'll win.
   466. tshipman Posted: July 06, 2020 at 07:36 PM (#5961360)
Embiid suffers from a more extreme example of the same stuff that Barkley suffers from.

Embiid career against Golden State is 28/64 from the field, with a 92 ORTG and a 111 DRTG.
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