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Sunday, June 07, 2020

OT – NBA Revival Thread 2020

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, and hopefully all of them survive these next few weeks.

BBTF Corona Draft Tournament Voting Page

BBTF Corona Tournament Brackets

BBTF Corona Draft and Rosters Page

Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 07, 2020 at 04:08 PM | 813 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nba, off-topic

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   501. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 09, 2020 at 04:14 PM (#5961931)
Nets have signed Jamal Crawford and Michael Beasley. They'll still be bad, but maybe a little more entertaining.

---

I also think it is wrong to think MJ had no chance to guard LBJ. Jordan was the defensive player of the year and an unbelievable jumper with long arms. Nobody can guard LBJ, but Jordan would have a chance. Counterpoint, nobody can guard Jordan either.

I can't picture (or remember) MJ trying to guard anyone LBJ's size (i.e. Karl Marlone*). Even if LBJ wouldn't post MJ up, he's still bigger and almost as fast as MJ and that's going to be a problem. OTOH, it's a lot easier to picture guys like LeBron, PG, and Artest giving MJ a trouble.

*#### it. I'm leaving that typo.
   502. tshipman Posted: July 09, 2020 at 05:21 PM (#5961951)
MJ is about the same size as Klay, and Klay has a lot of problems with defending LeBron 1/1.
   503. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 09, 2020 at 06:25 PM (#5961968)
Pat Gallen @PatGallenCBS3
Being told by our photographer on site that Joel Embiid is wearing a Tyvek suit on the plane to Orlando.

Working to get that footage because I'm sure it's phenomenal.
   504. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 09, 2020 at 06:47 PM (#5961971)
   505. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: July 09, 2020 at 08:10 PM (#5961991)
Jamal Crawford and Michael Beasley are to Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant as my dachshund mix Ernie is to a grey wolf. I love the signings.
   506. Willard Baseball Posted: July 09, 2020 at 09:34 PM (#5962012)
MJ is about the same size as Klay, but a much better athlete.

Are we sure Mourning can guard Dirk? Did he ever have to do anything close to that?
   507. tshipman Posted: July 09, 2020 at 10:23 PM (#5962017)
Are we sure Mourning can guard Dirk? Did he ever have to do anything close to that?


Well, they played against each other in the 2006 NBA finals, when Mourning was about out of the league. In this clip, they're matching up on each other.

You can see that Nowitzki is mostly trying to attack Mourning in the post, which is not super effective, and Mourning gets easy fouls on Dirk (to be fair, the officiating in that game was ... questionable).

But just more broadly: it's not that Nowitzki is hard to guard, particularly at this period in his career. It's not *hard* to guard Nowitzki as a 3p shooter. He basically just stands there and is tall. He's not doing Curry-type shenanigans.

Guarding Nowitzki makes Mourning less effective as a shot blocker and as a rebounder, but it's not hard to guard Nowitzki.
   508. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 10, 2020 at 04:15 AM (#5962063)
But just more broadly: it's not that Nowitzki is hard to guard, particularly at this period in his career. It's not *hard* to guard Nowitzki as a 3p shooter. He basically just stands there and is tall. He's not doing Curry-type shenanigans.
THIS IS WHAT I'M SAYING. Dirk didn't move much without the ball, didn't run the baseline to the corners. He spotted up straight away or on the high wings, and drained kickouts. That one-legged fade he developed later was awesome, but the 2007-era Dirk was taking three-quarters of his shots from mid-range or further. You don't need a giant to match up against him because that era Dirk wasn't good at taking advantage of his height in that way. This is why I was comfortable putting Barry on him, and why good teams can get away with using smaller guys on him. Dirk's teams got knocked out in the first round 8 times in 15 playoff appearances. My love for Dirk is well-documented in these threads, but he had his playoff issues.
   509. Willard Baseball Posted: July 10, 2020 at 09:44 AM (#5962074)
Draymond Green is a career 32% 3 point shooter. So is Kobe.

So when we look at all of this "shooting" that JJ has, and then wants to call Draymond's season a fluke (and I agree he isn't a 38% shooter), we must remember that Kobe does not provide the floor spacing.

I really don't see Kobe as a good fit next to LeBron for a myriad of reasons.
   510. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: July 10, 2020 at 09:47 AM (#5962075)
The idea that MVP Dirk wasn't hard to defend is certainly an interesting take. Considering that he led the league in Offensive Win Shares and OBPM back-to-back seasons, I think it seems somewhat implausible. If you could contain him just by sticking a defender on him and telling that guy not to help, wouldn't every team have done that? He wasn't surrounded by other All-Star level scorers. And the fact that the majority of his 2s were unassisted further suggests that there was more to his game than draining spot-up jumpers.

I would not have selected 2007 for Dirk, as I put substantial weight on playoff performance. However, it's wrong to say that his game didn't work in the playoffs. By several measures he was the best player in the 2006 playoffs as a whole, though Wade obviously had a better Finals. Dirk dominated 3 of the league's top 5 teams to get there, including its top 2 defenses. Dirk lost in the first round of the playoffs several times because the West was stacked. In his prime (through age 35), he lost in the first round 6 times, and all 6 times he lost to a top 5 team.

If the playoffs in the selected year are very important (as I think that they are), then it's not just Dirk that suffers. In the current matchup, for example, Paul George, Kobe Bryant, and Paul Millsap all struggled in the playoffs in the year selected, particularly relative to the regular season, and there are others who failed to demonstrate they could perform the role that's expected of them.
   511. spivey Posted: July 10, 2020 at 10:18 AM (#5962078)
The idea that MVP Dirk wasn't hard to defend is certainly an interesting take. Considering that he led the league in Offensive Win Shares and OBPM back-to-back seasons, I think it seems somewhat implausible. If you could contain him just by sticking a defender on him and telling that guy not to help, wouldn't every team have done that? He wasn't surrounded by other All-Star level scorers. And the fact that the majority of his 2s were unassisted further suggests that there was more to his game than draining spot-up jumpers.

I would not have selected 2007 for Dirk, as I put substantial weight on playoff performance. However, it's wrong to say that his game didn't work in the playoffs. By several measures he was the best player in the 2006 playoffs as a whole, though Wade obviously had a better Finals. Dirk dominated 3 of the league's top 5 teams to get there, including its top 2 defenses. Dirk lost in the first round of the playoffs several times because the West was stacked. In his prime (through age 35), he lost in the first round 6 times, and all 6 times he lost to a top 5 team.


I think some of the points you make are good. The last sentence can't be right, though. Golden State wasn't a top 5 team.
   512. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: July 10, 2020 at 10:22 AM (#5962080)
Ahh, sorry! I meant to say that every loss OTHER THAN GOLDEN STATE was to a top 5 team. My bad.
   513. tshipman Posted: July 10, 2020 at 12:11 PM (#5962101)
The idea that MVP Dirk wasn't hard to defend is certainly an interesting take. Considering that he led the league in Offensive Win Shares and OBPM back-to-back seasons, I think it seems somewhat implausible. If you could contain him just by sticking a defender on him and telling that guy not to help, wouldn't every team have done that? He wasn't surrounded by other All-Star level scorers. And the fact that the majority of his 2s were unassisted further suggests that there was more to his game than draining spot-up jumpers.


Dirk wasn't hard to defend *at the 3p line*. He was a handle at the high post, and was very good at moving intelligently and filling spots on the court.

But Dirk wasn't Reggie Miller, James Harden or Steph Curry.
   514. spivey Posted: July 10, 2020 at 01:50 PM (#5962127)
As a Spurs fan, I'm probably too hard on Nash and Dirk. They were great players, and Phoenix-era Nash terrified me. But those teams were soft. That's not entirely their fault as the stars. But at the highest of the high competition, I do wonder a bit about if they're truly inner circle guys. Dirk at least had the excuse of, well if you look at the middle part of his prime, those players don't look that good in hindsight. His crew was crap like Terry, Josh Howard, Raef Lafrentz/Dampier at C. Nash had some legitimately very good guys he was playing with in Phoenix. They should have been able to get to the Finals a year or two there, they were certainly more talented than the Spurs the year of the hip check.

Anyways, I think in some respects a lot of Dirk's early part of his career was the dark ages of basketball. I think a lot of teams just didn't know how to defend a big that could space the floor, in a way that I don't think teams struggle with today or would struggle with in this tournament. That said, he's still a great player. I've been struggling with how to handle him in this tournament.
   515. tshipman Posted: July 10, 2020 at 02:19 PM (#5962135)
Different kind of Woj Bomb today.
   516. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 10, 2020 at 02:31 PM (#5962141)
Anyways, I think in some respects a lot of Dirk's early part of his career was the dark ages of basketball. I think a lot of teams just didn't know how to defend a big that could space the floor, in a way that I don't think teams struggle with today or would struggle with in this tournament. That said, he's still a great player. I've been struggling with how to handle him in this tournament.

Even though I voted against him in this matchup again, I don't agree here. Dirk never had more than 6 3pta/36 until his last 2 seasons; Brook Lopez has done that the last 4 and Brook's never . I'd argue Dirk would be better today and he'd be encouraged to shoot from deep a lot more. Guys that big that can shoot as well as him are still rare, and Dirk could create his shot more than a lot of the guys that are compared to him (I'm looking angrily at you Markkannen). The fact that 39 year old Dirk, on a bad team, could shoot over 40% on 3s for what was then a career high in attempts per minute, speaks to that. For the purposes of this tournament specifically, he's a secondary option in a way he never really got a change to be in reality.
   517. tshipman Posted: July 10, 2020 at 02:47 PM (#5962145)
Even though I voted against him in this matchup again, I don't agree here. Dirk never had more than 6 3pta/36 until his last 2 seasons; Brook Lopez has done that the last 4 and Brook's never . I'd argue Dirk would be better today and he'd be encouraged to shoot from deep a lot more. Guys that big that can shoot as well as him are still rare, and Dirk could create his shot more than a lot of the guys that are compared to him (I'm looking angrily at you Markkannen). The fact that 39 year old Dirk, on a bad team, could shoot over 40% on 3s for what was then a career high in attempts per minute, speaks to that. For the purposes of this tournament specifically, he's a secondary option in a way he never really got a change to be in reality.


Isn't the flip side of this that Brook is a way better defender than Dirk has ever dreamed of?

Like in 2020 NBA Dirk pretty much has to play the 5, which means that you can't really hide him. So it just turbo-charges Dirk's impact.

If you have Dirk take a crap-ton more threes, but he has to play the 5 on defense, it means that he has *even more* positive impact on offense and *even more* negative impact on defense.
   518. spivey Posted: July 10, 2020 at 02:50 PM (#5962147)
But seriously, #### Josh Hawley.
   519. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 10, 2020 at 04:41 PM (#5962172)
Last week, a 9-vote tally meant a deadline extension, but since Willard has forced a re-match with JJ1986, I'm going to roll with this outcome. I do want to juggle a thing so they don't have to play back-to-back, so the next game, Game 37, will be JTSPORTS VS HOMBRE, an elimination game to see who moves on to face the loser of the Game 38 WILLARD/HARLOND matchup for a shot at the Finals. The winner of Game 38 has a buy to the Finals.

Since this is all last-second, Game 37 voting won't be until Tuesday, Game 38 on Friday, Game 39 on Monday, and the Finals on Thursday. I'll have Winter update the voting page.

I hope none of that is confusing.
   520. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: July 10, 2020 at 06:53 PM (#5962196)
Done and done. Even added trophy emojis for the finals on the game index.
   521. Howie Menckel Posted: July 11, 2020 at 01:48 AM (#5962254)
Different kind of Woj Bomb today.

former teammate of Woj.

he's obviously great at his job and I loved working with him and.... he's intense.

and deservedly talented enough to survive all this.

but the NBA seems like the biggest stage in the world - until you go political.

Woj has a family and a lot of pressure, even granting that he now makes millions.

yet a lifetime of economic security doesn't at all fully immunize you from stress.

most here certainly won't want to lose his voice over one comment. he didn't lose me.

and maybe that should apply more broadly.

these are tough times.
   522. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: July 11, 2020 at 01:41 PM (#5962310)
1. Love woj, this certainly did not make me like him any less. :)
2. "Intense" - oh, I can tell.
3. "and maybe that should apply more broadly" - I think so. Forgive me, the following is outside of what this thread is for.

I am with those who view the recent hubbub around "cancel culture" as a backlash against the elevation of less commonly heard voices, as anything else -and- that, for as much as we worried about the canceled, they largely seem to be doing okay. Also, as an individual consumer, I definitely cancel/boycott companies/individuals and watch how those who get my money behave. BUT
Individual comments? I tend to let those go - people need to be allowed to make mistakes. It's patterns of behavior and repeated infractions that I really zoom in on.
   523. tshipman Posted: July 11, 2020 at 02:19 PM (#5962315)
I don't think Woj's email was a mistake. I'll leave it there.
   524. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 11, 2020 at 03:43 PM (#5962326)
Yeah, I don't think Woj taking up for the NBA is going to be a problem for him with anyone except the people who already don't like the NBA.
   525. tshipman Posted: July 11, 2020 at 07:21 PM (#5962346)
Fascinating day-in-the-life from Matisse Thybulle.

Intelligently edited and compelling. I'm a Thybulle fan.
   526. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: July 11, 2020 at 09:27 PM (#5962367)
524 - yep
525 - he did a real nice job!
   527. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 11, 2020 at 10:06 PM (#5962369)

Andrew Sharp @andrewsharp
Ben Simmons trying to throw a fish back and hitting the dock is now number one on my bubble content power rankings
   528. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 12, 2020 at 07:44 PM (#5962468)
Toronto Raptors equipment manager Paul Elliott prides himself on typically taking only what he needs. He tends to take 45 bags on a standard road trip; by NBA standards, that is packing light.

Not this time. For this trip, Elliott’s count was 176 bags.
...
“I looked at it as what they were going to take for a two-week Western road trip, took what I would usually pack for that, and kind of quadrupled it,” Elliott said. “I just had to make sure I had enough options for these guys to accommodate them when they need. I just want to be prepared.”
link
   529. tshipman Posted: July 12, 2020 at 08:56 PM (#5962474)
so ... we're supposed to be voting tomorrow, and I haven't seen lineups or write ups posted.
   530. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 13, 2020 at 12:50 AM (#5962514)
Anthony Slater @anthonyVslater
Avery Bradley and the now injured Rajon Rondo were averaging ~45ish minutes when season froze. Large chunk will be picked up by Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Danny Green, Alex Caruso. But J.R. Smith and Dion Waiters are nudging closer to back-of-the rotation guard spot.
   531. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: July 13, 2020 at 11:00 AM (#5962563)
I've got the offseason on my mind and was struck how there are three impending free agents with similar profiles that strike me as fine complimentary players to have around, albeit with a glaring weakness that should keep them cheap. These are guys who were point guards (or at least spent significant time there) but have been moved to the two, despite an inability to shoot from distance. But, they're each fine to excellent defenders who can cover both backcourt spots, solid to good rebounders, and havoc makers - energy guys. Great +/- numbers.

These are their stats per 100 possessionsfrom the 2019-20 season
Player    PTS REB AST STL  TO BLK  PF --FieldGoals- --3Pointers- -FreeThrows-
Melton   19.4 8.9 7.3 3.0 3.6 0.8 4.2 6.8-16.3 .416 1.7-5.4 .316 4.0-4.9 .821 
Carter
-W 19.1 8.8 6.4 2.8 3.0 1.3 4.9 6.6-15.3 .434 1.3-4.3 .294 4.5-5.5 .828
Harrison 20.8 8.6 4.9 3.4 1.9 1.9 5.5 7.7
-16.4 .467 1.6-4.2 .381 3.9-5.0 .780 


Melton will be the most expensive next year, despite being a restricted free agent, as he's younger than Obi Toppin and has some room to grow as a shooter.
This was MCW's best year ever as a shooter (from two and from three), which says something about his touch and something about the benefits of slashing one's usage rate. He'll be 29 next season, though - this is arguably as good as he'll get.
The last guy is Shaquille Harrison, who I really like. The three point percentage is probably a fluke - he's at 29% for his career and the solid 2019-20 numbers were fueled by a hot stretch to end the year. He's already 27, an RFA, and not as good a playmaker as either of the other two (though a point guard previously, he was never good at distributing). That said, if he's truly added a competent outside shot, you want to play this guy - good things have happened when he's on the floor throughout his career and he can also cover smaller threes.
All three are adequate scorers despite shooting woes, using their athleticism to get to the hole or score in transition.
   532. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: July 13, 2020 at 11:30 AM (#5962570)
So much depends on what happens with the salary cap. Regarding fee agents anyway.
   533. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 13, 2020 at 11:38 AM (#5962573)
Isn't the flip side of this that Brook is a way better defender than Dirk has ever dreamed of?

Like in 2020 NBA Dirk pretty much has to play the 5, which means that you can't really hide him. So it just turbo-charges Dirk's impact.

If you have Dirk take a crap-ton more threes, but he has to play the 5 on defense, it means that he has *even more* positive impact on offense and *even more* negative impact on defense.


We weren't talking about defense here; that's a completely different (though totally necessary) discussion. My jumping off point was about his offensive usage. And no, he absolute doesn't have to play the 5 and he's not being asked to play the 5 in this tourney. The Lopez comp was merely about the changing nature of 3pta.
   534. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 13, 2020 at 11:39 AM (#5962574)
Rondo broke his hand/thumb. Does this hurt or help the current Lakers? They can't add an injury replacement for him at this point.
   535. spivey Posted: July 13, 2020 at 11:46 AM (#5962576)
We weren't talking about defense here; that's a completely different (though totally necessary) discussion. My jumping off point was about his offensive usage. And no, he absolute doesn't have to play the 5 and he's not being asked to play the 5 in this tourney. The Lopez comp was merely about the changing nature of 3pta.


I agree he shoots more 3s in today's game.

However, I do wonder a bit on what it exactly looks like. Some of it depends on who he's playing with. If he's playing with Giannis and is standing just at the break one on Giannis' strong side, then he probably gets to bomb a lot of 3s. BroLo gets a ton of 3s because helping off of him is a teams' best option (and his range extends well beyond the 3 point line). Dirk's defender probably gives less help.

I also think he could end up being more of an outside, catch and shoot player only if he came into the league today. I wonder if a lot of his offensive repetoire would go more unused today. Which would be a shame.
   536. tshipman Posted: July 13, 2020 at 12:07 PM (#5962579)
Rondo broke his hand/thumb. Does this hurt or help the current Lakers? They can't add an injury replacement for him at this point.


Probably help. Lakers were 8 points better with him off the court, and he got minutes ahead of guys like Caruso and Quinn Cook.

The challenge with the Lakers' lineup is that they have 5 centers and 5 backup PGs plus LeBron and AD.

The minutes when LeBron sits are going to be pretty ugly, but we knew that already, I guess. The advantage is that you can figure out some kind of lineup that works around AD without LeBron because the Rondo/AD lineups really didn't work (-5 pts).
   537. Booey Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:49 PM (#5962653)
Westbrook with the 'Rona.

I assume there's a 2 week quarantine now? We're almost at the point where any positive tests are going to cause players to start missing games.

   538. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:52 PM (#5962657)
Westbrook's positive is from before the bubble/quarantine. So if I'm reading it right, he's not there yet. So he probably won't miss time, if he recovers. I'd say any new positives from the testing there is when guys will definitely miss time.
   539. tshipman Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:57 PM (#5962660)
A LOT of speculation that Harden also has it.

Westbrook and Harden both were delayed in reporting.
   540. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 13, 2020 at 03:15 PM (#5962675)
I will say, it's been really weird how MLB has handled this. I completely agree it's totally up to the players whether they want to share it or not, but too maybe comments from reports like "Player X isn't here and manager can't say why" which is basically saying they have it, more often than not.
   541. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 13, 2020 at 03:22 PM (#5962679)
I will say, it's been really weird how MLB has handled this. I completely agree it's totally up to the players whether they want to share it or not, but too maybe comments from reports like "Player X isn't here and manager can't say why" which is basically saying they have it, more often than not.

i think that goes under the same umbrella as "why don't MLB teams require that pitchers get an MRI before signing a big new contract?"
   542. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: July 13, 2020 at 03:51 PM (#5962696)
I'm personally bummed about the Rondo injury, because it would have been nice to get more data on the Playoff Rondo phenomenon. With the glaring exception of his Mavericks tenure (which I tossed as a blatant outlier: he didn't play anything like himself and there were very clearly other issues between him and Carlisle), and 2011, where Wade gruesomely dislocated his elbow early in the second round, Rondo has outplayed his regular season baseline in the playoffs every season of his career.

A quick aside on the Playoff Rondo Eye Test: my pretty well-informed, totally subjective impression is that Playoff Rondo plays to win, not for stats. He gets deflections, he plays hard on defense, he throws his body around on both ends and does tons of small, difficult, intelligent plays that aren't captured by the box score. This is a glaring change from the in-game load management and empty calorie assist hunting Regular Season Rondo slowly drowns his teams' play with.

Another quick aside: it is very clear from Rondo's bbref stats page what season he tore his ACL.

Anyway, I got curious about what some stats said about Rondo in the playoffs vs regular season. There's a MASSIVE sample size warning attached to the Chicago season, since he broke his thumb after two games, which was also a huge bummer vis a vis Playoff Rondology. Anyway, here's the quick-and-dirty rundown I pulled before having to go back to my day job:

BPM/OBPM
(I separated out OBPM because I think it's much more reliable than overall BPM, though honestly my eye says his improvement is more meaningful on defense)
year playoffs regular season |
|------+----------+----------------|
2008 3.6/0.9  2.1/-0.4       |
2009 4.1/2.4  4.0/1.9        |
2010 3.9/2.7  3.6/2.2        |
2011 1.3/1.1  3.1/1.6        |
2012 6.4/4.4  2.2/1.5        |
2017 6.6/1.8  | -0.5/-1.6      |
2018 1.1/0.8  | -0.3/0.0       


VORP(games played)
(GP and extra column added because bbref doesn't publish any rate-based version of VORP)
year playoffs regular season higher VORP/gm |
|------+----------+----------------+----------------|
2008 |  1.2(26) |        2.4(77) | playoffs       |
2009 |  0.9(14) |        4.0(80) | playoffs       |
2010 |  1.5(24) |        4.2(81) | playoffs       |
2011 |   0.3(9) |        3.2(68) | regular        |
2012 |  1.7(19) |        2.1(38) | playoffs       |
2017 |   0.1(2) |        0.7(69) | playoffs       |
2018 |   0.2(9) |        0.7(65) | playoffs       


Win Shares/48, interestingly, bucks the narrative; given how it's calculated, I would speculate that Rondo's regular season stat hunting is better suited to gaming WS than the other summary stats. That's just speculation, though.
**
year playoffs regular season |
|------+----------+----------------|
2008 |     .121 |           .150 |
2009 |     .130 |           .179 |
2010 |     .131 |           .156 |
2011 |     .102 |           .126 |
2012 |     .155 |           .121 |
2017 |     .146 |           .060 |
2018 |     .082 |           .101 
   543. Jtsports01 Posted: July 13, 2020 at 04:15 PM (#5962708)
Game 37: JTSports vs Hombre
Starting Lineup:
Bird 1986 (36)
Jokic 2019 (36)
Anthony Davis 2018 (36)
Oladipo 2018 (36)
Walt Frazier 1970 (24)
Bench
Moncrief 1982 (24)
Shane Battier 2007 (24)
Thurmond 1967 (8)
Mullin 1990 (10)
Elton Brand 2007 (6)

Yep, I'm running the same squad back. Just wanted to address some of the comments.
My defense isn't ideal for matching up with Hombre - I'm not sure how my defense could be better suited. As Dandy noted, I start 3 players who made first team all-defense in the year selected, and they guard Hombre's three best offensive players (Chris Paul, Barry, Wilt). For those who said Anthony Davis is too light to guard Wilt, he is listed as an inch taller and 38lbs heavier then Bill Russell. In addition Embiid a great fit for Jokic to guard, a guy who in real life he's held to 37.7%% shooting with 5 turnovers per game (granted only 5 games). And then Bird matches up with Hombre's fifth option on offense, Lamar Odom. In addition, Hombre is playing two poor passing, high turnover centers and my frontline players are great at generating steals. Jokic/Davis/Bird averaged 4.9 steals per game, more than double Hombre's frontline (Odom & Embiid total 1.3 so say 2.3 with Wilt).

Wilt is the best individual scorer – Wilt led the 7th best offense in a 9 team league. As has been noted, throughout his career, if Wilt was your primary scoring option, your offense was not great. OTOH, In a 23 team league, Bird was never on a team that ranked lower then 6th in the league in offensive efficiency. The year before Bird joined the Celtics they were 19th in offense and immediately improved to 2nd. And while Wilt is being guarded by a DPOY finalist who led the league in blocks and was 15th in the league in steals, the worst defensive player on the floor is guarding my best offensive player. Odom never once made an all-defensive team. In the year selected he was 31 and had the lowest steal rate of his career. To me this is the biggest mismatch of the series and why my squad would win.


   544. tshipman Posted: July 13, 2020 at 04:16 PM (#5962709)
I feel like the whole "playoff Rondo" meme is dependent on a very small sample of games.

Rondo was a good player pre-ACL injury, then the league changed, and Rondo got a lot worse. He has not been a good player since 2012.

He played very well in two games in 2017, and pretty good in 4 games in 2018 (he was good against Portland and ####### awful against Golden State).
   545. Jtsports01 Posted: July 13, 2020 at 04:16 PM (#5962710)
   546. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 13, 2020 at 04:59 PM (#5962725)
Apologies for being absent. I have a family member who got sick, and we're all preoccupied on this end. I should have something up for the next game in a few hours.
   547. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: July 13, 2020 at 05:29 PM (#5962735)
532/mm: totally. i've heard some free agent predictions and they rarely take that into account, which i find mind boggling. however, i feel confident projecting that melton will make more money than the other two next season (presuming we have one).
   548. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 13, 2020 at 05:30 PM (#5962737)
Shams Charania @ShamsCharania

Kings center Richaun Holmes crossed the the Disney campus line to pick up delivery food and must quarantine for 10 days (eight days remaining).


Bobby Marks @BobbyMarks42

There will be a financial penalty if a player breaks quarantine once the seeding games start on July 30. Each game missed will project to roughly 1% of salary. The Richaun Holmes situation would have cost him close to $50K for every game missed.


Shams Charania @ShamsCharania

Sources: Two NBA players have tested positive out of the 322 tested on NBA campus on July 7.
   549. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: July 13, 2020 at 05:36 PM (#5962739)
[544] If that's all it were, it wouldn't be much of a meme. Aside from the most recent 11 playoff games, there were the 92 playoff games he played in Boston. Wherein he notably and consistently raised his game above his regular season standard even before his injury. Towards the end of that era, while still young and relatively healthy, I submit that he pretty clearly began a fairly cynical variety of regular season in-game load management. That, in combination with more or less every ex-teammate's testimony that Rondo is anomalously good at reverse-engineering opponents' schemes over repeated matchups, is why it is not absurd to think some version of the Playoff Rondo phenomenon could still happen (I would like to explicitly state that I don't think it's anywhere close to guaranteed that it would).

I agree that Rondo's knee injury made him worse; that's obvious. It's equally obvious that the league has trended away from shooting-weak point guards in a way that undermines his effectiveness. That's why it would be so fascinating to see what the the best version of such a flawed, weird player looks like in 2020; and that's why it's such a bummer that once again, we lose the chance to update our respective assumptions with, you know, evidence.
   550. tshipman Posted: July 13, 2020 at 06:04 PM (#5962741)
[544] If that's all it were, it wouldn't be much of a meme. Aside from the most recent 11 playoff games, there were the 92 playoff games he played in Boston. Wherein he notably and consistently raised his game above his regular season standard even before his injury. Towards the end of that era, while still young and relatively healthy, I submit that he pretty clearly began a fairly cynical variety of regular season in-game load management. That, in combination with more or less every ex-teammate's testimony that Rondo is anomalously good at reverse-engineering opponents' schemes over repeated matchups, is why it is not absurd to think some version of the Playoff Rondo phenomenon could still happen (I would like to explicitly state that I don't think it's anywhere close to guaranteed that it would).


The only season where he's really noticeably better is 2012. Every other season is basically the same guy.
   551. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 14, 2020 at 03:35 AM (#5962779)
Donatas Urbonas @Urbodo
It's official: G league coach of the year Martin Schiller is the new head coach of Zalgiris Kaunas
Eric Buenning @ericbuenning
Laid in a hammock today. Would recommend.
Kurt Helin @basketballtalk
WNBA MVP Delle Donne says league denied her medical waiver nba.nbcsports.com/2020/07/13/wnb…
Michael Lee @MrMichaelLee
Stop messing around with Elena Delle Donne. You know a champion & MVP wants to compete & wouldn’t make a request to opt out if she didn’t have legitimate health concerns/risks. When so much remains unknown about this coronavirus, the WNBA needs to do right by her & protect her

Mike Vorkunov @MikeVorkunov
Knicks 1999 run is even weirder than I remember. Knicks fined Latrell Sprewell $25k 8 games before playoffs bc his agent said he'd need an offseason trade if he wasn't a starter the next season. And they demoted Ernie Grunfeld from president/GM. Two months later NY is in Finals.
   552. Jtsports01 Posted: July 14, 2020 at 10:33 AM (#5962796)
So I think Winter needs to update the voting page and we are still waiting on Hombre's writeup, looks like we need to push the voting to tomorrow?
   553. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 14, 2020 at 10:41 AM (#5962797)
Apologies again. Since strategies didn't change from last game, please just use my previous game plan against JT. It's served me well the first time around, and I am sure it'll serve me well again.
   554. JJ1986 Posted: July 14, 2020 at 10:42 AM (#5962798)
I would support pushing the voting for each of the last few games to something like 4 days, so we close this one on the 16th, then Game 38 on the 20th, 39 on the 24th and the final on the 28th.
   555. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 14, 2020 at 11:15 AM (#5962802)
That sounds good to me. The NBA supposedly starts up on the 30th, so we need to be done by then.
   556. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 14, 2020 at 03:33 PM (#5962863)
Shams Charania @ShamsCharania
Multiple tips have been placed into the NBA’s anonymous hotline to report protocol violations on campus, sources tell @The Athletic @Stadium.
Shams Charania @ShamsCharania
Kings forward Harrison Barnes says he has tested positive for coronavirus, is in quarantine and will join the team in Orlando when he clears.


pop quiz: which team is the following tweet referring to:
Peter Edmiston @peteredmiston
I asked Taylor Jenkins and he confirmed that both Grayson Allen and Jontay Porter have been full participants throughout practices and praised both of them for their competitiveness and ability to pick things up quickly.
   557. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: July 14, 2020 at 04:38 PM (#5962869)
Hey, I voted on time ;)
   558. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: July 14, 2020 at 06:21 PM (#5962886)
SuperBeas tested possible, homeward bound.
The Nets just got a little less interesting.
   559. tshipman Posted: July 14, 2020 at 07:15 PM (#5962896)
At this point, if you're over 6-7, live in Brooklyn and are willing to relocate to Orlando for three weeks, the Nets have an exciting opportunity for you.
   560. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: July 15, 2020 at 12:07 PM (#5963043)
I would support pushing the voting for each of the last few games to something like 4 days, so we close [game 37] on the 16th, then Game 38 on the 20th, 39 on the 24th and the final on the 28th.
Done.
   561. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 15, 2020 at 04:43 PM (#5963174)
Game 37: JTSports vs Hombre

Chris Paul 2009 (36)
Rick Barry 1975 (36)
Clyde Drexler 1992 (36)
Joel Embiid 2020 (28)
Wilt Chamberlain 1964 (36)

BENCH:
Lamar Odom 2011 (12)
Kyle Lowry 2016 (12)
Charles Barkley 1988 (12)
Pau Gasol 2011 (20)
Brandon Roy 2009 (12)

I'm changing things up a little bit, using Drexler instead of Odom. Clyde gives a couple of inches to Bird, but he's much quicker and more dangerous on an island, and can take advantage of iso situations to either score himself or set someone up than Odom. Otherwise, I'm playing the same game: Muck things up, use my size, clog everything, muscle my way to victory. Wilt and Embiid are big and long and will be a defensive problem, and I don't believe JT has enough shooting to solve them.

Notes:
The most common critique against my offense seems to be that it'll get bogged down, that Wilt will slow things down, etc. I've mentioned this often, but it seems to bear repeating: I don't run post-ups. I am not funneling my offense through Wilt. I don't wait for my big guys to fight for position, lob it to them, let them dribble the ball into the ground. I'm just not doing that.

The NBA's been running pick-and-roll for about 75 years, and I have arguably the best PnR quarterback of all time. My secondary creator is also an elite passer. With Wilt and Embiid, it's not about how well they're posting up, but how fast they're moving. Both those guys are faster than Jokic. Drexler is faster than Bird. However you want to envision my offense looking, it doesn't look like the inefficient, staid, stand-around-and-watch-Wilt-work offense that people keep pointing to.
   562. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 15, 2020 at 04:52 PM (#5963178)
from dan simmons' the biller, a site that i can't even bother with this stick anymore.
As The Ringer’s Dan Devine wrote last week, the Sixers seem like “the NBA’s most volatile playoff team, with any outcome from total flameout shitshow to NBA champion seeming plausible.”
It was lovely getting to know Matisse Thybulle’s inner self under the duress that is self-isolation, too. Here’s Thybulle making friends with his Roomba, just your typical bond between man and vacuum:
The starting five that Brown throws out in the Sixers’ first seeding game could be a combination that’s never been used before

Brown, who’s been on the hot seat for around three years now, needed to change something. ...Switching up the starting lineup with eight games remaining is a dangerous gamble, but considering how underwhelming the Sixers had been before the break, it might be riskier to stay the same.

In the 20 straight games Milton played before the break, he shot 51.2 percent on 4.2 3-point attempts per game. His best showing came against the Clippers (all of the Clippers; this was not a game lacking Kawhi Leonard or Paul George) in March: 39 points, 7-for-9 from 3, five assists, three rebounds, and a steal. More of that from him at the point guard position with Simmons’s skill set elsewhere gives the 76ers another dimension.

The Sixers’ Vegas odds are 27-1.
well......................i have to say that number is tempting. if things go right (narrator: they won't), the possibility is there.
   563. tshipman Posted: July 15, 2020 at 04:58 PM (#5963179)
The NBA's been running pick-and-roll for about 75 years, and I have arguably the best PnR quarterback of all time.


I mean, arguably in the sense that you just argued it.

Edit: To add more than snark: in the last 5 years, Damian Lillard is pretty clearly the best PnR PG in the NBA, and from an all-time perspective, it's probably Nash, but I'd have to look at Stockton and Magic closely.
   564. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 15, 2020 at 05:39 PM (#5963189)
wrong thread.
   565. nick swisher hygiene Posted: July 15, 2020 at 09:02 PM (#5963239)
Hang on: so, then, if Chris Paul is the #21 guy all time according to Backpicks, (and, adjusting for elapsed time, almost certainly now would rank higher than Nash, as well as Stockton who he already outranks).......and the P&R is Paul’s core skill (he’s not a fast break PG like Nash, Magic, etc......)—why is Hombre’s point not at least arguable in the old-fashioned way?
   566. tshipman Posted: July 15, 2020 at 10:45 PM (#5963256)
Hang on: so, then, if Chris Paul is the #21 guy all time according to Backpicks, (and, adjusting for elapsed time, almost certainly now would rank higher than Nash, as well as Stockton who he already outranks).......and the P&R is Paul’s core skill (he’s not a fast break PG like Nash, Magic, etc......)—why is Hombre’s point not at least arguable in the old-fashioned way?


Well, there are two sides of a court. If Nash played defense like Chris Paul, he'd be a lot higher than 21.

To be clear: Chris Paul is a great point guard--and he's great at a lot of things that are important to the position. But he's not even the best PnR PG in the NBA *right now* let alone of all time.
   567. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 15, 2020 at 11:03 PM (#5963258)
Christian Clark @cclark3000
I’ve been suckered in by Bol Bol hype. I think this means basketball is back.



i'd just like to remind everyone that if 57i66135 ran the sixers, our starting lineup would be:

simmons
ball
butler
porter
embiid


i'm not gonna say that's better, but it would be a lot more...weird. which is, admittedly, a high bar.
   568. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 16, 2020 at 12:12 AM (#5963264)
bonus fun fact:

the 57ixers bench would look something like this:

monte morris
tyreke evans (pre-crack cocaine suspension)
corey brewer
kyle anderson
melo
bol bol
nerlens noel
enes kanter


your welcome.
   569. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 16, 2020 at 04:37 AM (#5963284)
Emiliano Carchia @Sportando
News via @NicolaLupo99: Chukwudiebere Maduabum signs with Fukuoka Rizing Zephyr sportando.basketball/en/chukwudiebe…
   570. Jtsports01 Posted: July 16, 2020 at 01:13 PM (#5963386)
Congrats to Hombre, wish we got more then 10 votes. At least I got TShip to switch to my side so I can call it a moral victory. I think my drafting mistakes were taking Frazier over Stockton 90 and not getting Jokic's 39% 3pt shooting season.
   571. Willard Baseball Posted: July 16, 2020 at 03:26 PM (#5963424)
JT, for the record, I would have voted for you. I am surprised a team with Wilt as it's best player has made it this far.

I tried to login and vote numerous times the past few days, but have had a ton of baseball games/workouts to run, and voting never was opened up for me. Not sure what happened. Must just not have been on the page at the right times.
   572. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 16, 2020 at 03:39 PM (#5963429)
Thanks, JT. I think this was one of those match-ups that just didn't work out well. I still think that a different Jokic season where he shot better from long range would have been a game-changer for that lineup, but that's neither here nor there.

Low vote total is my fault. I've been absent and not properly pushing the tournament, fretting over covid test results for both my brother and brother-in-law, both of whom were exposed to lots of stupid people. Fortunately, they all turned out negative, so that's a huge load off my psyche for the moment.

GAME 38: WILLARD vs JJ1986
Team Lebron vs Team Jordan, for the third time. Winner goes to the Finals, loser has to play my Hombres to get to the Finals. I don't think we need massive write-ups again (though you're free to do so!) but definitely address rationales and make adjustments as you see fit.
   573. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 16, 2020 at 03:48 PM (#5963431)
I went back and forth on this last one, thinking about how terrible the offense would be with Embiid/Wilt sharing the floor for so much time. I ended up thinking this was the one front court Hombre would end up getting away with it against.
   574. tshipman Posted: July 16, 2020 at 04:33 PM (#5963441)
GAME 38: WILLARD vs JJ1986
Team Lebron vs Team Jordan, for the third time. Winner goes to the Finals, loser has to play my Hombres to get to the Finals. I don't think we need massive write-ups again (though you're free to do so!) but definitely address rationales and make adjustments as you see fit.


Jeez.

I gotta say I'm disappointed with the voters. None of these teams were among the five best teams by my system.

My unofficial official power rankings:
1. NJ
2. Stiggles
3. DCA
4. Harlond/Me--virtual tie
***

Looking back at the tournament, it looks like NJ self-sabotaged a little bit against Willard, then inexplicably lost to Winter, and lost an extremely close game against DCA.
   575. DCA Posted: July 16, 2020 at 05:11 PM (#5963454)
In addition to MJ/LeBron mystique (the only guys who seemed to get that treatment), I'm on record that both of these teams have played a very favorable schedule. I think a number of other teams eliminated along the way could have taken them, but never got the chance.
   576. NJ in NY (Now with two kids!) Posted: July 16, 2020 at 09:50 PM (#5963503)
My unofficial official power rankings:
1. NJ
2. Stiggles
3. DCA
4. Harlond/Me--virtual tie
***

Looking back at the tournament, it looks like NJ self-sabotaged a little bit against Willard, then inexplicably lost to Winter, and lost an extremely close game against DCA.


*Throws phone*
   577. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 17, 2020 at 01:34 AM (#5963524)
Salman Ali @SalmanAliNBA
One thing James Harden will never find on this app is the benefit of the doubt lol
Christian Clark @cclark3000
Nicolo Melli says he brought an espresso machine to the bubble. "I like the United States of America, but the coffee here kind of sucks."
...the people ain't too ####### great, either.
Mark Medina @MarkG_Medina
Pelicans coach Alvin Gentry said he "doesn't know anything right now" on when Zion Williamson will come back

Sam Quinn @SamQuinnCBS
As someone who was generally pessimistic about the 2020-21 Brooklyn Nets, hiring Mark Jackson would make my under bet that much easier.
   578. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: July 17, 2020 at 08:50 AM (#5963558)
I gotta say I'm disappointed with the voters.


I feel exactly as bad as I should.
   579. JJ1986 Posted: July 17, 2020 at 09:06 AM (#5963567)
Round 3: We’ll make a few more adjustments, the ball will bounce our way more and Draymond is going to be suspended 1 game for flagrant foul accumulation.

Starting Lineup:
Chauncey Billups (05-06) (36 minutes)
Kobe Bryant (02-03) (36 minutes)
Paul George (18-19) (36 minutes)
LeBron James (12-13) (36 minutes)
Alonzo Mourning (99-00) (26 minutes)

Bench:
Dan Majerle (92-93) (32 minutes)
Metta World Peace (03-04) (14 minutes)
Eric Bledsoe (12-13) (12 minutes)
Karl-Anthony Towns (17-18) (6 minutes)
Buck Williams (82-83) (6 minutes)

Lineups:
We’re moving those extra 6 minutes again, this time from Bledsoe to three other players. I’m almost tempted to start Thunder Dan, but I think it’s more likely that he’ll come in about 4 minutes into the first and third. Our plan is to mostly play our starters for about 12 minutes, starters with Majerle in for Kobe for 12 minutes and starters with Majerle in for Mourning for 12 minutes with the rest of the time being a bench unit run by Bryant with Bledsoe, Artest and a center on the floor. Obviously, none of this is as fixed as that.

When Willard has the ball: (Some of this is new, some repeated)
I want to highlight a few points, first that I absolutely believe Mourning (or Buck Williams) can guard Draymond. The Warriors ran centers off the court with Draymond and incredible passing and off-ball movement. Jordan and Payton are not going to play that way (and if they are it makes them less effective as these iterations aren’t good 3-point shooters. Willard doesn’t have the guys who are going to catch the ball coming off an action and immediately fire it up for a three.

Our plan to guard Dirk is LeBron, then Artest and the third option is PG if he’s not covering Jordan at that time. When we go really small, we are fine putting Kobe on Draymond and letting him play for steals. George still gets the primary MJ assignment, but as we near the end of the series and the tournament, we are comfortable letting LeBron guard him more if need to and swallow him up with size.

When Ewing is on the floor, we’ll match him with Mourning (or bench big) and guard Draymond or Millsap with a smaller player. Draymond trying to score inside is among the least efficient shots that Willard can take. Chauncey will mostly matchup with Payton and is long enough and strong enough to body him up and make both passing and driving difficult.

Willard’s bench units lack efficiency – Iverson was a .518 TS%, exactly league average and Thomas was at .529 against a league .542. AI was my favorite player when I was a kid, but I don’t think he complements anyone else on the team. Kobe might be a chucker, but Willard’s team has 4 or 5 guys who need the ball in their hands to be at their best and that’s not even counting Draymond.

When I have the ball:
Our first option is to put the ball in LeBron’s hands and let him work with a spaced floor. We’ll be going with more shooting than in our previous matchups and Draymond (or maybe Millsap) is going to have to cover James 1-on-1 almost all of the time. If Mourning is on the floor without Ewing, then we’ll go to him in the post against Dirk. When there are no true centers in the game, we’ll attack Nowitzki relentlessly and try to get him switched onto James or Kobe with the ball in their hands.

Mourning had a .596 TS% in the selected year and shot .746 at the basket and .539 from 3’-10.’ He was mostly playing against plodding centers too, so we would expect improvement playing against Dirk and/or smaller players.

This game is going to be played on the perimeter even more than some of the previous contests and we can load up on shooting. Majerle’s going to play more to get more shooting into the lineup and off the bench we’ve got Bledsoe (40% in his selected season) and Towns (42%) to come in. Draymond is a great help-defender, but he’s also the only starter who can cover James so he’s going to have his hands full.

Except for a few minutes from Artest, all of my perimeter players are good shooters from deep, headed by LeBron and Billups (43%), while my opponent starts Payton (who shot 33% from the short line) and MJ (who went 7 for 53 from deep that whole season).

   580. spivey Posted: July 17, 2020 at 11:06 AM (#5963604)
I gotta say I'm disappointed with the voters. None of these teams were among the five best teams by my system.


Basketball is such a synergistic game that I think it's kind of rich to both state this while also criticizing the "just add up the advanced stats". I'm not saying a model isn't worthwhile, but I am saying there's going to be many, many assumptions built into it - assumptions that create margins of error larger than the gaps between teams. I also agree that matchups worked into LeBron and Jordan's favor, and with a format like this, winning early games was so big, and the more "obvious" teams like LeBron and MJ led had an advantage there.

That said, I do think it's a bit unfortunate the voting ended up boiling down too much to who has the best iso scorer, especially since the best iso scorer in the league is whomever the undefeated Karl Anthony-Towns is guarding.

I don't think there's a real appetite to do a league like this again so soon, but I think there's probably a lot learned both from a team building but also a voting perspective.
   581. tshipman Posted: July 17, 2020 at 12:26 PM (#5963619)
Basketball is such a synergistic game that I think it's kind of rich to both state this while also criticizing the "just add up the advanced stats". I'm not saying a model isn't worthwhile, but I am saying there's going to be many, many assumptions built into it - assumptions that create margins of error larger than the gaps between teams. I also agree that matchups worked into LeBron and Jordan's favor, and with a format like this, winning early games was so big, and the more "obvious" teams like LeBron and MJ led had an advantage there.


I agree with what you've said. I certainly don't think my way was the only way. I think I have tried to back off some of my earlier frustration, and pointed out the "three camps" of voters.

I guess I'm surprised because I don't know that most people think that these are the three best teams. Some of it is matchups, and a LOT of it is how the first matchup went. I voted for Willard vs. NJ because I thought NJ sort of self-sabotaged. That loss had huge ripple effects throughout the tournament in terms of who faced whom.

Agreeing with what DCA said, I think that some people give mystique/aura credit to MJ/LeBron/Wilt.

I think that MJ/LeBron teams were basically consensus teams. Most people had different top 5s than I did (I think most people did not rate Stiggles highly because of all the meme-ing). But I don't think that most people had these three teams as their top 3. No one had these teams in the bottom 5, and I think that, plus some matchup luck, gave us the results we got.
   582. CFBF's Overflowing Pathos Posted: July 17, 2020 at 12:55 PM (#5963627)
Jeez.

I gotta say I'm disappointed with the voters.


You'll never flip Wisconsin with that attitude.
   583. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: July 17, 2020 at 01:02 PM (#5963630)
I think most people did not rate Stiggles highly because of all the meme-ing

His is the team, on retrospect, I think I found myself underrating. But even with that, the only vote I'd change now would be his team over yours. I absolutely would have picked his team in a a matchup against both the LeBron and MJ teams, he just never faced them. My problem with DCA's team in different matchups was Kevin Love (after the Noah at PG thing), he'd just be in too much trouble against Karl Malone and Barkley (I also voted against him against NJ's team). As for NJ's team being the best, no offense to him, but even with Howard at his peak he arguably has the worst defensive team (his defensive anchor is better than JTS and winter's, so maybe it's one of those 3); I don't see how it's a top 5 team though it is one of the easier ones to visualize stylistically.
   584. tshipman Posted: July 17, 2020 at 01:23 PM (#5963646)
As for NJ's team being the best, no offense to him, but even with Howard at his peak he arguably has the worst defensive team (his defensive anchor is better than JTS and winter's, so maybe it's one of those 3); I don't see how it's a top 5 team though it is one of the easier ones to visualize stylistically.


I think in general, perimeter, one on one, defense was overrated in this tournament.

When I look at blocks, rebounding, and in particular fouls, NJ's team doesn't stand out to me as a poor defensive team. All of these teams are going to be giving up 110-120 points per game.
   585. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: July 17, 2020 at 03:20 PM (#5963699)
I think most people did not rate Stiggles highly because of all the meme-ing

I think Stiggles had the best team through the first 2 rounds of the draft and maybe through round 3, which is largely why I voted for him in a couple matchups, but I really didn't like the rest of his draft. Mostly one-way players who fell apart in the postseason and don't fit well with Giannis. If he had committed to a devastating defense, or surrounded Giannis & Kawhi with shooting + size, I might've had him as the favorite.
All of these teams are going to be giving up 110-120 points per game.

Hasn't history shown that offense doesn't scale very well and the higher the stakes, the lower the score? I don't envision these teams all piling up points against better defenses than they've ever faced, in a playoff environment.
   586. spivey Posted: July 17, 2020 at 03:45 PM (#5963718)
I actually thought a ton of teams were going to have a lot of problems with spacing and putting the ball in the basket, relatively speaking. For that reason, NJ's high efficiency attack is one I would reconsider. My biggest problem with his team was how small it was, and how reliant on Howard it was. If he got into foul trouble, which could absolutely happen, then they're just going to get pummeled inside.
   587. NJ in NY (Now with two kids!) Posted: July 17, 2020 at 04:02 PM (#5963724)
Guys...come on...3>2.
   588. tshipman Posted: July 17, 2020 at 04:06 PM (#5963726)
I think Stiggles had the best team through the first 2 rounds of the draft and maybe through round 3, which is largely why I voted for him in a couple matchups, but I really didn't like the rest of his draft. Mostly one-way players who fell apart in the postseason and don't fit well with Giannis. If he had committed to a devastating defense, or surrounded Giannis & Kawhi with shooting + size, I might've had him as the favorite.


You, along with most voters, were extremely inconsistent with how you valued the playoffs.

Hasn't history shown that offense doesn't scale very well and the higher the stakes, the lower the score? I don't envision these teams all piling up points against better defenses than they've ever faced, in a playoff environment.


No.

Regular season vs. Playoffs ORTG:
2019:     109.4     109.4
2018
:     108.6     108.9
2017
:     108.8     111.3
2016
:     106.4     106.7
2015
:     105.6     105.3
2014
:     106.7     108.7
2013
:     105.9     104.8
2012
:     104.6     103.6
2011
:     107.3     106.0
2010
:     107.6     108.6 
   589. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 17, 2020 at 04:10 PM (#5963727)

Hasn't history shown that offense doesn't scale very well and the higher the stakes, the lower the score? I don't envision these teams all piling up points against better defenses than they've ever faced, in a playoff environment.


Surely the delta between these players and the average offensive player is much greater than the delta between them and the average defensive player? You can 'clamp down' on defense in the playoffs because you just need to focus on one or two scorers. Most of these teams have 8 or 9 scorers.
   590. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 17, 2020 at 05:08 PM (#5963747)
I think Stiggles had the best team through the first 2 rounds of the draft and maybe through round 3, which is largely why I voted for him in a couple matchups, but I really didn't like the rest of his draft. Mostly one-way players who fell apart in the postseason and don't fit well with Giannis. If he had committed to a devastating defense, or surrounded Giannis & Kawhi with shooting + size, I might've had him as the favorite.

i think giannis was massively underrated by voters. the idea that "giannis is only good because brook lopez" is the dumbest collective take this thread has ever produced. ever.
i think lillard was massively underrated by voters. his usage/efficiency ratio this year is excellent (62% TS%; 30% usage), and because he's capable of scoring in isolation, as a pnr ball handler and as a spot up shooter, he's both role and schematically versatile.
i think kawhi, kemp and kirilenko were just disregarded completely.


the idea that i 'didn't commit to a devastating defense' is very odd. i chose to attack defenses with a very specific plan for disruption: use giannis, kawhi and kirilenko to hound opposing ballhandlers into irrelevance. i may not have stacked my team with great defenders beyond those 3(debatable), but i drafted enough disruptive ones (crash wallace? hell, kemp had 4 stocks per game, too) to cut off every opponent's ability to smoothly initiate their offense.

the "one-way players" you're talking about were the enablers for that strategy. yao was a way to counteract offenses that relied on post scoring (while also providing a relatively unstoppable offensive threat). lillard and kyrie provided a floor for my team's offense while i was spending the other 4 spots on disrupting my opponents. brent barry and drazen petrovic were also around to flash in some instant offense while my defense was stalling the game out.


   591. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 17, 2020 at 05:20 PM (#5963749)
as for the meme'ing:

yeah, i don't disagree. as i said at the time, i should have taken stockton instead of yao. that would have pushed kyrie off my roster (i would still have taken kemp and lillard, and so in a worst case scenario, i'd have stockton and moses malone instead of kyrie and yao).


but that would have been so much less funny, so even now, i can't say i made a mistake there.
   592. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 17, 2020 at 08:57 PM (#5963796)
here's a sixers practice bubble highlight video compilation. it's 10 seconds of slow motion buildup, and 50 minutes of embiid dunking on fools.
   593. spivey Posted: July 17, 2020 at 09:43 PM (#5963801)
I agree I didn't/don't take Lillard seriously. Maybe that's on me. But his stats in the playoffs kind of suck, and we're talking about a reasonably decent sample. 51 games, 2k minutes. -5.7 on court rating, breakeven on/off, .544 TS%. He's hit some huge shots, but I'm not sure where he fits in the playoffs in real life, let alone this league.

He's a very good player, don't get me wrong. But can you win titles with him as one of your top guys? I'm not really sure on that, actually.
   594. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 17, 2020 at 10:32 PM (#5963809)
his stats in the playoffs kind of suck, and we're talking about a reasonably decent sample. 51 games, 2k minutes. -5.7 on court rating, breakeven on/off, .544 TS%.
counterpoint:
2019: dies to GSW
2017: dies to GSW
2016: dies to GSW
2014: dies to SAS

lillard's teams have won 4 playoff series through his first 8 seasons, despite playing in the western conference with consistently weak supporting casts. that's more playoff wins than joel embiid, karl towns, jahlil okafor and kristaps porzingis, combined. just last year, he dragged POR to the western conference finals despite literally every teammate taller than 6'8" getting injured. and then coming off that playoff performance, he was having the best season of his career before the world ended.



to be clear: people like you are the reason why lebron went to MIA, why kevin durant went to GSW, and ruined the NBA playoffs for the last decade. 'oh, this UFC fighter got mauled to death by a pack of lions while he was hog tied and slathered with beef tallow. he must not have been very good'
   595. tshipman Posted: July 18, 2020 at 12:17 AM (#5963818)
A lot of the problem with Lillard is that he's a quite poor defender.

Like in 2019, he was a net negative for Portland because his defense was so poor. He bombs out against Curry because Curry crushes that matchup every year.
   596. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: July 18, 2020 at 12:24 AM (#5963819)
i think kawhi, kemp and kirilenko were just disregarded completely.

I thought your writeups should've featured Kawhi more. He was the league's best point-of-attack defender and the leader of a historically great defense, who also happened to be the league's best off-ball scorer. He ranked #1 in spot-up points per game, shot 44% from 3, and had crazy efficiency on just about every play type, even when creating his own shot [85%+ percentile off screens, as a PnR ball handler (95%), in isolation, and on post ups]. The Spurs won 67 games and their second best player was LaMarcus Aldridge. He also raised his game in the playoffs, as he always does. I had him as a top-10 pick in this format.
the idea that i 'didn't commit to a devastating defense' is very odd. i chose to attack defenses with a very specific plan for disruption: use giannis, kawhi and kirilenko to hound opposing ballhandlers into irrelevance. i may not have stacked my team with great defenders beyond those 3(debatable), but i drafted enough disruptive ones (crash wallace? hell, kemp had 4 stocks per game, too) to cut off every opponent's ability to smoothly initiate their offense.

I should be clearer. Your most common lineup included Damian Lillard and Yao. Lillard is awful and inactive defensively, and Yao is generally good but immobile. Obviously your starting lineup's overall defense is still among the strongest in the field, but you could've gone more heavily in the swarming, versatile, switchy mold. I get that Kemp and Wallace are that kind of player, though Wallace didn't play much. Thinking about it, having all 3 Wallaces (Gerald, Rasheed, and Ben) would've been fun.
   597. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 18, 2020 at 02:16 AM (#5963827)
I thought your writeups should've featured Kawhi more
i can't disagree with that, but if you think kawhi iso is a better offensive strategy than a lillard/giannis pick and roll, then might i suggest that having it as a secondary option is a pretty good indication that the quality of my offense was alot higher than generally credited.
I should be clearer. Your most common lineup included Damian Lillard and Yao. Lillard is awful and inactive defensively, and Yao is generally good but immobile. Obviously your starting lineup's overall defense is still among the strongest in the field, but you could've gone more heavily in the swarming, versatile, switchy mold. I get that Kemp and Wallace are that kind of player, though Wallace didn't play much. Thinking about it, having all 3 Wallaces (Gerald, Rasheed, and Ben) would've been fun.

no, i really couldn't. the reason why i prioritized giannis, kawhi and ak early in the draft is because their skillsets are extremely rare. lock-down, 4/5 position defenders who can positively contribute on offense are very scarce, even in this format.

besides, it wasn't necessary.* if voters didn't think opposing offenses would be disrupted sufficiently by giannis/kawhi/ak, why exactly would a ron harper make them see the light?

and moreover, if it takes ron harper to get voters to acknowledge the defensive quality of giannis/kawhi/ak, that says more about them than it says about the quality of the team i drafted.
Like in 2019, he was a net negative for Portland because his defense was so poor. He bombs out against Curry because Curry crushes that matchup every year.
"unplayable because he can't defend curry" is a very high bar, even for this tournament.


*to build out a bit on why i don't think it was necessary to add more "switchy" defenders, it's important to understand that i wasn't playing a "switch-everything" defense. i was playing an "attack the quarterback" defense. my team wasn't attempting to disrupt everyone on the floor, it was build around getting the primary initiator out of rhythm early in the shot clock, and forcing each possession (that didn't end with a turnover) to come down to scramble defense vs. schoolyard offense.
   598. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: July 18, 2020 at 06:20 PM (#5963931)
As soon as I had selected KD, Giannis and Kawhi were 2 and 3 on my draft board, in that order (by the time the draft started snaking, Giannis was gone, so I was targeting Kawhi and Tim Duncan; since everyone ahead of me already had a big man nailed down, I was sure I would at least get Duncan, too, until BaseballObscura decided to go twin towers). AK was also a key guy I wanted. The draft comes at you fast.
   599. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 19, 2020 at 01:34 AM (#5963995)
As soon as I had selected KD, Giannis and Kawhi were 2 and 3 on my draft board, in that order (by the time the draft started snaking, Giannis was gone, so I was targeting Kawhi and Tim Duncan; since everyone ahead of me already had a big man nailed down, I was sure I would at least get Duncan, too, until BaseballObscura decided to go twin towers). AK was also a key guy I wanted. The draft comes at you fast.

the biggest "what-if" for me coming out of this was when ben simmons got taken before i could get him on the snake in round 6. simmons/kawhi/giannis/ak/kemp would have been a much worse lineups, but it would also have been an even more funnier one.

i would have filled out the roster with shooters after that, but i was hoping to hold off of that for one more round.
   600. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 19, 2020 at 05:34 PM (#5964064)
not gonna lie, i thought the answer for tyler zeller would be pananthanaikos.
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