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Tuesday, April 16, 2019

OT - NBA thread (Playoffs through off-season)

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, and this one only cares about the NBA thread and the Cubs so I have no idea what the rest of the website cares about.

Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: April 16, 2019 at 02:18 PM | 6831 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

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   401. SteveF Posted: April 27, 2019 at 12:03 AM (#5835824)
Mo Williams isn't torching anyone these days, at least not professionally.

I'm old and senile. I meant Lou Williams (I think).

I really am losing it these days!
   402. tshipman Posted: April 27, 2019 at 12:09 AM (#5835826)
I think Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to be really good.

He has such a fluid game. He always seems to be in the right place on defense. He needs to get more aggressive--he just kinda disappears--but I think he could be an all-star level guy with some development.
   403. Booey Posted: April 27, 2019 at 03:00 AM (#5835844)
Just heard while listening to Michael Lewis' podcast episode on NBA refs that the Rockets did a study finding that the Utah Jazz benefit the most from ref home-cooking. (Not exactly an impartial source, sure.) The whole episode is really interesting and mostly revolves around the the NBA Replay Center.

Anyway, I thought Booey would comforted to hear that NBA refs join in solidarity with his Jazzistanning. :D


According to an article I read a few weeks ago, bad calls at Vivint Smart Home Arena (based on the NBA's last 2 minutes report) favored the visiting team 69% of the time in 2016, and 58% of the time in 2017. And then in 2018 they did a complete 360 and favored the Jazz 73% of the time! So what happened between 2017 and 2018 that caused such a dramatic shift? Spida. Apparently even NBA referees can't resist the boyish charms of Mr Donovan Mitchell. ;-)

Seriously though, back in 2017, Jazz GM Dennis Lindsey gathered all this data about how often the Jazz were on the wrong end of bad calls over the previous couple of seasons and aired it on a podcast with Woj. He then met with NBA officials and presented the evidence to them. Looks like it might've worked...

...and honestly, a little more home dominance is exactly what Utah needs. As much as you hear about how tough it is to play at Vivint, how the fans act as a 6th man, occasionally how the altitude gives the Jazz an advantage, etc...they're actually not a great home team, and they haven't been home dominant in any of the last 3 playoff seasons (12, 13, and 12 home losses). Their road record was on par with Denver, Portland, and Houston, but they finished 3 or 4 games behind all of those teams because they weren't as good at home. To get out of the 5th seed they've been stuck in the past 3 seasons, the Jazz need to become tougher at Vivint and get back to a single digit number of home losses like the Stockton and Malone Jazz did every year but one from 1988-1999. Even the D-Will/Boozer Jazz had only 10, 4, 8, and 9 home losses from 2007-2010.
   404. PJ Martinez Posted: April 27, 2019 at 07:52 PM (#5835955)
This first-quarter lineup of Butler, Harris, Boban, Korkmaz, and Ennis is having a hard time, which does not seem surprising.
   405. JJ1986 Posted: April 27, 2019 at 08:10 PM (#5835958)
Need to get Gasol back in. Ibaka ineffective on both ends and tries to score off the dribble too much.
   406. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: April 27, 2019 at 08:29 PM (#5835962)
The Barneys are so lethal in transition.
   407. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: April 27, 2019 at 08:29 PM (#5835963)
405, Siakam and Leonard are 17-22 in the first half. I call picking at nits.
   408. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: April 27, 2019 at 08:33 PM (#5835964)
And it's The Red Panda at halftime! Excellent.
   409. SteveF Posted: April 27, 2019 at 08:48 PM (#5835966)
If Philly gets 20 offensive rebounds a game I like their chances.
   410. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: April 27, 2019 at 09:25 PM (#5835975)
I’m not in a place accessible for viewing 76ers/Raptors. Who have been failing so miserably trying to guard Siakam and Leanord?
   411. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: April 27, 2019 at 09:26 PM (#5835976)
edit: wrong thread
   412. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: April 27, 2019 at 09:39 PM (#5835978)
Kawhi really has gone full Terminator tonight.
   413. SteveF Posted: April 27, 2019 at 09:49 PM (#5835984)
Butler and Harris need to be a lot better.
   414. PJ Martinez Posted: April 27, 2019 at 10:22 PM (#5835989)
Apparently Kawhi Leonard has never lost to the Sixers? (He missed the one game Philly won against Toronto during this past regular season.) I guess Philly was pretty bad most of the time he was with San Antonio, but still, he's something like 13 or 14 and 0 now, or so Twitter tells me.
   415. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: April 27, 2019 at 10:25 PM (#5835992)
If Philly gets 20 offensive rebounds a game I like their chances.
shoulda kept jah.
I’m not in a place accessible for viewing 76ers/Raptors. Who have been failing so miserably trying to guard Siakam and Leanord?
kawhi went kobe.
siakam just kept getting the ball in favorable positions, then didn't #### up.
This first-quarter lineup of Butler, Harris, Boban, Korkmaz, and Ennis is having a hard time, which does not seem surprising.

####### shitty MF.
   416. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: April 27, 2019 at 10:36 PM (#5835996)
to be clear, there are 2 main reasons why the sixers lost this game:
1: they didn't get to the FT line.
B: kawhi went nucular.

they probably come out even on the other woulda/coulda/shouldas, but when two lemons go against you, and everything else is about equal, you're probably going to lose by double-digits on the road, against a better team.
   417. Davo Posted: April 27, 2019 at 10:40 PM (#5835998)
Thank you for the kind words! But it’s baby number 2, this is all old hat.

Also: I *AM* watching the game, even from the hospital!! But I can’t tell you how.

Arrr arrrrrrrrrr
   418. Tin Angel Posted: April 27, 2019 at 11:14 PM (#5836004)
Mason Plumlee in the house!
   419. Tin Angel Posted: April 27, 2019 at 11:50 PM (#5836007)
If the Warriors/Rockets series goes 7 games, it will take exactly two weeks. Game 2 is on Tuesday 4/30, Game 3 is Saturday, 5/4.
   420. Davo Posted: April 28, 2019 at 12:41 AM (#5836009)
Holy smokes we got lucky!!!! 18 point 3rd quarter lead was cut to 2 with a minute to play!!!

Gotta ask....did Pops not know the score at the end? Denver with the ball up 4, 29 seconds to play and the Spurs DONT foul??? I had no idea what he was thinking but I’ll take it!!!
   421. puck Posted: April 28, 2019 at 12:58 AM (#5836010)
Gotta ask....did Pops not know the score at the end?

I noticed he was on the court yelling that last possession.
   422. Davo Posted: April 28, 2019 at 01:02 AM (#5836011)
   423. Davo Posted: April 28, 2019 at 01:09 AM (#5836012)
Here’s the video of the final 30 seconds.

Good call 421....Pops is screaming for his guys to foul....man. One of the strangest endings I’ve ever seen!
   424. stanmvp48 Posted: April 28, 2019 at 01:25 AM (#5836014)
Well you would be happy if you bet San Antonio + 6
   425. Davo Posted: April 28, 2019 at 01:27 AM (#5836015)
I think there was a fan with the same exact voice as Pop standing right behind him yelling "dont" right as Pop was screaming foul so to the players it sounded like "dont foul" and confused the #### out of them. Really cheeky strat by the nuggets but it paid off
   426. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: April 28, 2019 at 01:58 AM (#5836017)
Also: I *AM* watching the game, even from the hospital!! But I can’t tell you how.
This is how you parent. Well done!
   427. Tin Angel Posted: April 28, 2019 at 02:22 AM (#5836018)
Denver and Portland is going to be a really fun series.
   428. Davo Posted: April 28, 2019 at 07:03 AM (#5836022)
Lillard is gonna average like 60 points a game against Murray...
   429. Davo Posted: April 28, 2019 at 07:58 AM (#5836030)
LaMarcus Aldridge looked at 14 million possibilities and the only one where the Spurs would become champs again required not fouling. ”We're in the end game now" -LaMarcus to Pops

I think there was a fan with the same exact voice as Pop standing right behind him yelling “dont” right as Pop was screaming foul so to the players it sounded like “dont foul” and confused the #### out of them. Really cheeky strat by the nuggets but it paid off
   430. JC in DC Posted: April 28, 2019 at 10:39 AM (#5836047)
Obviously, it's just speculative until someone says something, but I thought (1) the players should know to foul already, (2) watching it live and in that 30 sec clip above, Pops doesn't seem to start calling for fouls until his assistants move up the sideline motioning for fouls, and inexplicably, Aldridge doesn't seem to notice Pops who's about 15 feet away from him. I'm super happy for Denver, though. Jokic is incredible.
   431. stanmvp48 Posted: April 28, 2019 at 10:48 AM (#5836049)
Well yeah. I always thought the assumption was that you fouled until told otherwise or at least looked at the side lines.
   432. Davo Posted: April 28, 2019 at 11:01 AM (#5836054)
How much time would have to be left for it to make sense to not foul in that spot (down by 4)? 40 seconds?
   433. jmurph Posted: April 28, 2019 at 11:23 AM (#5836061)
Hate that these are both day games. Probably won’t get to see much of either unless I’m strong-willed enough to avoid the scores and watch later (spoiler alert: I am not).
   434. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: April 28, 2019 at 12:00 PM (#5836067)
@legsanity
per NBA tracking, Kawhi Leonard made 11-of-12 shots in Game 1 when a defender was either very tight (0-2 ft) or tight (2-4 ft).

he was 4-of-9 on open looks (4-6 ft).
   435. puck Posted: April 28, 2019 at 12:38 PM (#5836074)
Lillard is gonna average like 60 points a game against Murray...


Does the NBA thread have the BBTF pants-pissing tradition? If so nevermind.

But otherwise, what makes you think Murray will be guarding him? Harris and Craig will take Lillard and McCollum. The trick will be keeping Lillard from averaging 35 off them.

For a Nuggets fan, this series is gravy. But they played the Blazers well in the regular season and again have the extra home game. Both teams are among the top home records. I see the Trailblazers with the advantage when the game goes to hell because the Blazers can just give him the ball. Jokic in faceup situation just isn't the same as we saw in last night's 4th. He like everyone else on the Nuggets needs to be playing in combos. But the Nuggets adjusted in the SA series and I expect they will in this one. I think it's going to be another back and forth series...the Nuggets are going to go hot and cold and there's going to be a game or two when Portland's shooters run wild. But I like the Nuggets chances, esp. after they got over the playoff hump and got their seasoning.
   436. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: April 28, 2019 at 01:12 PM (#5836083)
Does the NBA thread have the BBTF pants-pissing tradition?
It's not so much a tradition here as it is a way of life.
   437. spivey Posted: April 28, 2019 at 02:48 PM (#5836111)
When Giannis is outplayed by Horford, Milwaukee will not win.
   438. sardonic Posted: April 28, 2019 at 02:52 PM (#5836112)
Coming out of my post hibernation just to post about how glad I am that the Celtics aren't doing "CUS CRise" this year.
   439. sardonic Posted: April 28, 2019 at 02:56 PM (#5836113)
I mean, Rise Together in 90s font isn't great, but the bar was pretty low. Generically bad is a huge upgrade. finserv.forum on the other hand...
   440. Davo Posted: April 28, 2019 at 02:56 PM (#5836114)
Oh I still think Denver will win. I’m just expecting a ton of really high scoring games.
   441. sardonic Posted: April 28, 2019 at 02:59 PM (#5836115)
@legsanity
per NBA tracking, Kawhi Leonard made 11-of-12 shots in Game 1 when a defender was either very tight (0-2 ft) or tight (2-4 ft).

he was 4-of-9 on open looks (4-6 ft).


Not the first to point this out, but Kawhi is definitely the true heir to Kobe's legacy in the way he plays. I hope he doesn't end up on the Lakers.
   442. SteveF Posted: April 28, 2019 at 03:03 PM (#5836117)
Budenholzer is going to need to come up with something different for that Irving/Horford pick and pop.
   443. PJ Martinez Posted: April 28, 2019 at 03:14 PM (#5836120)
Things I believe:
Game 1 of a series is often misleading.
The Celtics' game plan and execution vs. Giannis were ideal.
The Bucks will adjust.
The Celtics won't continue shooting this well from midrange.
The Bucks could really use Brogdon.
The Celtics have more individual talent.
--Pelton
   444. spivey Posted: April 28, 2019 at 03:21 PM (#5836124)
I’m not sure the Celtics have more talent. Middleton is definition better than Tatum and Hayward. Sterling Brown was awful today. As was Brolo, who is good.
   445. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 28, 2019 at 03:26 PM (#5836125)
Kawhi is definitely the true heir to Kobe's legacy in the way he plays

Nah, Kawhi plays defense.
   446. JJ1986 Posted: April 28, 2019 at 03:29 PM (#5836127)
I never watch pregame or postgame shows, but I left it on today and, man, Paul Pierce is brutal.
   447. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: April 28, 2019 at 03:33 PM (#5836129)
I wonder what's the worst February Celtics take out there. Will have to do some googling later
   448. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 28, 2019 at 04:03 PM (#5836134)
I know GS likes to try and put up outrageous numbers. But I am not sure a turnover a minute, is something I would be trying to push for.
   449. nick swisher hygiene Posted: April 28, 2019 at 04:25 PM (#5836141)
443–Sometimes I just do not understand how the complex overflowing love young media guys have for the Celtics plays out.

If I’m supposed to believe BOTH that Brad Stevens is the 2nd best coach in the game AND that the Cs have more talent than Milwaukee, then why aren’t they winning 70 games with that combo?
   450. sardonic Posted: April 28, 2019 at 04:26 PM (#5836142)
Nene looks like an offensive lineman out there next to Draymond Green.
   451. SteveF Posted: April 28, 2019 at 05:11 PM (#5836146)
Things I believe:
Game 1 of a series is often misleading.

Road teams that win game 1 of a 7 game series are 33-35 in those series from 2003-2018.
   452. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 28, 2019 at 05:45 PM (#5836162)
What is the record of road teams that lost game 1 of 7 in that time?
   453. SteveF Posted: April 28, 2019 at 05:57 PM (#5836168)
What is the record of road teams that lost game 1 of 7 in that time?

I was busy doing just this while you were asking... 28-144.

So obviously that's a .485 win pct vs a .163 win pct -- a road team that wins game 1 is 3x likelier to win the series than if they lose game 1. So, that strikes me as pretty meaningful.

That said, the road team is still an underdog.
   454. JJ1986 Posted: April 28, 2019 at 06:06 PM (#5836169)
Why is Nene on the floor there?
   455. sardonic Posted: April 28, 2019 at 06:16 PM (#5836171)
I'll say it -- I think the first couple Klay contests in H1 could have been called fouls. I'd hate an NBA where the last Harden shot and the CP3 shot that led to the techs were called though, if you're the offensive player and you're jumping forward into your 3 to try to get the foul there's got to be more than incidental contact.
   456. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 28, 2019 at 06:25 PM (#5836174)
I was busy doing just this while you were asking... 28-144.

So obviously that's a .485 win pct vs a .163 win pct -- a road team that wins game 1 is 3x likelier to win the series than if they lose game 1. So, that strikes me as pretty meaningful.

That said, the road team is still an underdog.

I think you kinda missed the point of the question.

The issue is that the sample obviously contains a lot of series, where the road team is a huge underdog. And in most of those cases, the home team is at least the somewhat better team.

If it is a series like Toronto-Orlando, or Philly-Brooklyn this year, then the road team winning the first game is probably meaningless, and the home team is probably still a huge favorite.
If it is a series like Toronto-Cleveland last season, than a first game loss might already be the writing on the wall, and the road team is now a significant favorite. And obviously, there are a lot of series that fall between those two extremes.

So the point is, that the predictive value for that cumulative stat, is basically zero, for any individual series.
   457. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: April 28, 2019 at 06:26 PM (#5836176)
I was watching the questionable non-calls (by the book) on some of the Rockets' threes. In my mind, if you do a step back, you have surrendered the "forward" landing area. It sure looks like James "Foul Seeker" Harden has mastered the step back, shoot, and thrust forward to make it look like the defender egregiously invaded the landing zone. I would have a hard time feeling sorry for him if he got a serious injury on one of those.

With that said, I think the basic intent of the rule is right.
   458. tshipman Posted: April 28, 2019 at 06:29 PM (#5836178)
I'll say it -- I think the first couple Klay contests in H1 could have been called fouls. I'd hate an NBA where the last Harden shot and the CP3 shot that led to the techs were called though, if you're the offensive player and you're jumping forward into your 3 to try to get the foul there's got to be more than incidental contact.


I think that the Klay contests get called a foul about half the time, and really depends on the officiating crew.

Harden really is very tough to officiate. He does the step back, then jumps forward into the defender. I really don't know how that's supposed to be officiated. He took 14 free throws, so it's not like the refs ignored him. His game is so weird and so extreme in how it plays.

Edit: Coke to Edmundo.
   459. SteveF Posted: April 28, 2019 at 06:31 PM (#5836179)
The issue is that the sample obviously contains a lot of series, where the road team is a huge underdog.

You're right. There's a difference between rounds for sure. Road teams in general have a better series record in later rounds than in round one, just going by my memory.
So the point is, that the predictive value for that cumulative stat, is basically zero, for any individual series.

I wouldn't say the predictive value is zero. That seems like hyperbole to me.

Your general point is well taken, though.
   460. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: April 28, 2019 at 06:57 PM (#5836184)
DEN/SA: I think the last two years have shown good Popovich is on a whole other level. They still went out in RD1 both times. Talent league.
BOS/MIL: I think Pelton is reaching a little. Yes, it is only one game, and no, Boston is not going to win in four straight blowouts, but I don't recall many #1 seeds losing the first game of the conference semis (at home ofc) by 22. Boston is a tough matchup for Milwaukee.
Stevens/young Boston guys: I have never thought that Boston's young guys are particularly impressive. If they were, Boston would not have wanted to spend a jillion dollars on Horford, Irving, and Hayward, or want to a package a bunch of them for Davis. As to Stevens, he showed me something last year by coaching around the injuries to Irving and Hayward and almost making the Finals anyway (yes, even in the East). But Budenholzer/Stevens is not the main reason that I think Boston has a good shot against Milwaukee.

   461. Moeball Posted: April 28, 2019 at 07:13 PM (#5836185)
Dammit I hate being right! I didn't say I wanted the C's to beat the Bucks, just that I wouldn't be surprised if they did. And, yes, quite frankly, the difference in this game was that Stevens had his team much better prepared for the game. At this level, Milwaukee can't afford to make mistakes like this. They better make some major adjustments quick or this is going to be a short series.
   462. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 28, 2019 at 07:26 PM (#5836187)
I wouldn't say the predictive value is zero. That seems like hyperbole to me.

I don't think it is hyperbole, though perhaps I should have phrased it as "adds zero value."

Sure if all you know is that a road team won game one, then there is value in known that road teams are about .500 after winning game one. The same way that if all you know is that a baseball player had 100 RBI last season, that is better than knowing nothing at all... But why is that ever all you would know about a series or player? And if you know a players slash stats, and his OPS+ and everything else, then adding RBIs adds nothing of value.

Knowing 33-35 adds nothing to your prior evaluation of the series. If you thought the Bucks were 75-80% at the start of the series, than you should think they are probably still in good shape. If you thought they were around 65%, then you should think maybe they are down to even-ish. If you thought the series was a coin-flip before the series, then you should think they are in some trouble now.

I mean how do you think 33-35 would add anything to any of those evaluations? How would you work that into the analysis?
   463. SteveF Posted: April 28, 2019 at 07:31 PM (#5836188)
Excluding the first round, the numbers on road teams in the playoffs from 2003-18:

When they win game 1: 16-18, .470 win pct.
When they lose game 1: 16-62 .205 win pct.

I mean how do you think 33-35 would add anything to any of those evaluations? How would you work that into the analysis?

It honestly doesn't add much, as you said. It just helps keep those Bucks fans who aren't as on this as you from panicking.

It's not serious analysis in the same way that pointing out the last 4 times a road team won game one on the road by 15+ points they lost the series isn't serious analysis. It just helps keep things in perspective.

I don't think it is hyperbole, though perhaps I should have phrased it as "adds zero value."

To clarify, I was referring not to the 33-35, but to the sheer fact that the road team won game 1. I should have assumed you wouldn't accuse that of having no relevance as to the outcome of the series. That's on me.
   464. sardonic Posted: April 28, 2019 at 07:35 PM (#5836189)
I think that your take on BOS-MIL depends a lot on what you thought going into the series. If you think that regular season results are roughly representative of team quality, it's probably a fluke, just one of those games, like LAC coming back on GSW from down 31. If you thought Boston was really the contender they were seen as coming into the season, you probably think that this series is over in 5.
   465. PJ Martinez Posted: April 28, 2019 at 07:54 PM (#5836190)
464: there's another possible perspective, as suggested in several of the recent replies -- that Milwaukee is in general a significantly better team but that Boston matches up well and can scheme to take advantage of how much the Bucks rely on one transcendent superstar.
   466. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: April 28, 2019 at 08:34 PM (#5836192)
5Dimes still has the Bucks favored to win the series -122/+112. Was something like -300 before today's game. Don't see odds up at Pinnacle.

Factoid - Bucks ORTG was lower than all but two regular season games they played. Giannis missed one of those games.
   467. sardonic Posted: April 28, 2019 at 09:17 PM (#5836197)
I take what I said earlier back. A slo mo of Harden's step back + jump forward 3.
   468. SteveF Posted: April 28, 2019 at 09:30 PM (#5836201)
He does the step back, then jumps forward into the defender. I really don't know how that's supposed to be officiated.

This is the closest I've seen on the NBA website for addressing this jump forward type of move. Harden jumps further forward than this, though. I'm not sure how it's supposed to be officiated, but it doesn't seem like they assume a shooter should jump straight up and down.
   469. tshipman Posted: April 28, 2019 at 09:35 PM (#5836202)
This is the closest I've seen on the NBA website for addressing this jump forward type of move. Harden jumps further forward than this, though. I'm not sure how it's supposed to be officiated, but it doesn't seem like they assume a shooter should jump straight up and down.


Yeah, the shooter doesn't have to go straight up and down, but Harden's step back is a complicating factor because no one else shoots that as often as him.

Stepping back into jumping forward is very unnatural. Like, just try it.

So what are you supposed to do as the defender? When it's someone shooting a jumpshot, it's pretty straight forward. But with the step back, it's confusing.
   470. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: April 28, 2019 at 10:22 PM (#5836206)
Yeah, the shooter doesn't have to go straight up and down, but Harden's step back is a complicating factor because no one else shoots that as often as him.

Stepping back into jumping forward is very unnatural. Like, just try it.

So what are you supposed to do as the defender? When it's someone shooting a jumpshot, it's pretty straight forward. But with the step back, it's confusing.
yeah, i think this is best treated as a "buyer beware" situation. if an offensive player (harden) is more worried about drawing contact than about protecting himself, he has to be prepared to eat the consequences of that.

in fact, i'd be willing to outlaw it entirely. call it a harden violation: if you step back into a 3Per, then leap forward, the refs blow the play dead like a 5-second violation, or a travel; no foul, no shot, just a basic turnover.


   471. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: April 28, 2019 at 10:26 PM (#5836208)
   472. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: April 28, 2019 at 10:37 PM (#5836210)
Just heard while listening to Michael Lewis' podcast episode on NBA refs
I mentioned her producing "Against the Rules" a few pages ago, but I can't resist just one last brag on this: the voice you hear early in the episode quipping "this is peak beige" as Michael Lewis et al enter the NBA Replay Center is my wife.
   473. tshipman Posted: April 28, 2019 at 10:40 PM (#5836211)
I mentioned her producing "Against the Rules" a few pages ago, but I can't resist just one last brag on this: the voice you hear early in the episode quipping "this is peak beige" as Michael Lewis et al enter the NBA Replay Center is my wife.


That is awesome, congrats to your wife :)
   474. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: April 28, 2019 at 10:42 PM (#5836212)
Also: 57i66135, you really have to start trimming the "?ref_src=twsrc^tfw" from the end of your twitter links—or at least the caret, which breaks the link for many of us.
   475. Moeball Posted: April 29, 2019 at 01:45 AM (#5836223)
Just watched the replay of GS-HOU game 1 and yes there were at least 4 times Harden got fouled shooting that didn't get called, but there were also a couple of times that he pushed off to create space that didn't get called, either. Going to be tough for refs to call things correctly in game 2 but I'm guessing HOU will get more favorable calls when they go home.
   476. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 29, 2019 at 08:07 AM (#5836236)
Just heard while listening to Michael Lewis' podcast episode on NBA refs

I mentioned her producing "Against the Rules" a few pages ago

For about 2 and a half seconds, I was like, wait Michael Lewis is female? Has she always been female? Is her name pronounced like Michelle or something? What is going on...

Yeah, I am tired and haven't had any coffee yet today. But kudos to your wife.
   477. JC in DC Posted: April 29, 2019 at 08:42 AM (#5836243)
I actually hate Chris Paul. If he's not hurt, he's blowing points away arguing with the refs. Getting tossed and giving up points is inexcusable for a veteran player. Houston gave away multiple points by Ts yesterday. That's just stupid. Note that Harden hardly ever does that.
   478. spivey Posted: April 29, 2019 at 08:54 AM (#5836249)
I think Giannis will have to play way, way better, and I think he will. But Boston shot 61% on 2 pointers. Most of those were midrange jumpers and floaters. Even if you acknowledge that Boston matches well well defensively, their offensive performance was heavily based off low percentage shots.
   479. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: April 29, 2019 at 09:48 AM (#5836269)
I'm curious, does Denver have a historically above-average home court advantage because of the elevation? Since starters play more minutes in the playoffs, I wouldn't be shocked if conditioning plays a larger role in April and May.

Also, congrats to winter's night's better half. I binged the first few episodes of the Lewis podcast last week and really enjoyed them.
   480. PJ Martinez Posted: April 29, 2019 at 10:33 AM (#5836288)
Most of those were midrange jumpers and floaters. Even if you acknowledge that Boston matches well defensively, their offensive performance was heavily based off low percentage shots.
It's very unlikely that they will shoot that well from mid-range again, as Pelton noted on Twitter. That said, the number of mid-range shots they took was pretty clearly by design -- Horford, in particular, was popping to mid-range on his pick and pops, rather than ducking behind the three-point line. In Horford, Irving, and the finally-playing-pretty-well Hayward (and to some extent in Tatum, though he didn't do much offensively in Game 1), the Celtics have guys who can hit those shots, which Milwaukee is generally happy to concede. It'll be interesting to see whether Boston continues with that strategy, and, if so, whether it works again.
   481. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: April 29, 2019 at 10:37 AM (#5836292)
So what are you supposed to do as the defender? When it's someone shooting a jumpshot, it's pretty straight forward. But with the step back, it's confusing.

It's an easier call if the defender is jumping straight up and down, but that usually isn't the case when they're contesting a jumper; as soon as the defender lunges toward the shooter, I think the shooter has drawn the foul based on the way the rules appear to be written/called. I think there are some instances where the defender is also extending further to get into the landing space vs the shooter coming forward to make it look like the defender is in their space - but that's almost impossible to decipher in real time. I also think Harden has mastered the swing his legs forward part of the landing after a step back, almost to the point where we it doesn't look he'll get hurt - he's not coming down cleanly so he's not likely to land directly on the defender's foot.

The fact that both sides appear to have a legit gripe means the NBA is going to have to rethink that play as it becomes more and more common. I don't know what the right answer is or should be.
   482. . . . . . . Posted: April 29, 2019 at 10:37 AM (#5836293)
the Celtics have guys who can hit those shots, which Milwaukee is generally happy to concede. It'll be interesting to see whether Boston continues with that strategy, and, if so, whether it works again.


I mean, no one can hit those shots consistently at a good enough clip to justify taking them if there is virtually any other option. That's why Milwaukee will concede them, because if Boston continues to take them they will lose the series.
   483. . . . . . . Posted: April 29, 2019 at 10:39 AM (#5836295)
I actually hate Chris Paul. If he's not hurt, he's blowing points away arguing with the refs. Getting tossed and giving up points is inexcusable for a veteran player. Houston gave away multiple points by Ts yesterday. That's just stupid. Note that Harden hardly ever does that.


Tactically stupid, but I think Houston strategically needed to plant a flag on the refereeing ASAP. If the series is called anything like the 1st half was yesterday, they have no chance. Worth reducing your chances in G1 from, say, 30% to 15% (referring to the moment of peak kvetching, when they were down 6 or so late in the 2nd), in order to improve your odds in the remaining games.
   484. jmurph Posted: April 29, 2019 at 10:54 AM (#5836306)
I mean, no one can hit those shots consistently at a good enough clip to justify taking them if there is virtually any other option. That's why Milwaukee will concede them, because if Boston continues to take them they will lose the series.

Boston was 15/22 on Open or Wide Open twos. Milwaukee was 6/10 on Open or Wide Open twos. So their percentages even out if Boston makes 1.8 fewer Open/Wide Open twos yesterday.

The issue for the Bucks yesterday was the 22, I think, more than the 15. That's a lot of easy looks to concede to decent or better shooters (Kyrie and Horford combined for 12 Open or Wide Open twos).
   485. spivey Posted: April 29, 2019 at 11:13 AM (#5836314)
The issue for the Bucks yesterday was the 22, I think, more than the 15. That's a lot of easy looks to concede to decent or better shooters (Kyrie and Horford combined for 12 Open or Wide Open twos).


Milwaukee has and will always struggle with the pick-and-pop game from a center with Brook Lopez playing. Even Mirotic, who is a bit more nimble, will struggle with this. That's mostly fine. Irving and Horford are very good shooters on those, but are about ~45% for their career on 10-16 and 16ft<3. Milwaukee's defense is exploitable, especially by a ball handler and good shooting big like Kyrie and Horford.

Zach Lowe made a good point that Milwaukee is by far the best in the NBA at limiting shots at the rim, and they also don't foul much. Boston doesn't use either of those a ton (which is also probably why they're not that good of an offense). I mean, you have to live with something, and Boston taking a few more open 3s than you'd want and a lot of wide open 2s is just what they'll concede.

I'm not too worried about that.

Giannis was really flustered. Wasn't looking to kick out, was finishing pretty soft around the rim, wasn't in control on his drives. The team was actually +2 with Giannis on the bench.

The other thing I'm worry about is Sterling Brown. He was absolutely awful, and we could really use Brogdon getting those minutes.
   486. MHS Posted: April 29, 2019 at 11:13 AM (#5836316)

I mean, no one can hit those shots consistently at a good enough clip to justify taking them if there is virtually any other option. That's why Milwaukee will concede them, because if Boston continues to take them they will lose the series.



I would need to see some evidence on this claim to believe I’ve it.
   487. jmurph Posted: April 29, 2019 at 11:26 AM (#5836325)
Milwaukee has and will always struggle with the pick-and-pop game from a center with Brook Lopez playing. Even Mirotic, who is a bit more nimble, will struggle with this. That's mostly fine. Irving and Horford are very good shooters on those, but are about ~45% for their career on 10-16 and 16ft<3. Milwaukee's defense is exploitable, especially by a ball handler and good shooting big like Kyrie and Horford.

Yeah to be clear I'm not arguing against the idea that they overperformed a bit yesterday- they definitely made a few more shots than they should have. All it takes is one game where Marcus Morris thinks he's Kobe to bring those numbers back to earth. But overall I was very happy with the looks they were able to generate, they were consistently finding open looks for solid shooters.

Zach Lowe made a good point that Milwaukee is by far the best in the NBA at limiting shots at the rim, and they also don't foul much. Boston doesn't use either of those a ton (which is also probably why they're not that good of an offense). I mean, you have to live with something, and Boston taking a few more open 3s than you'd want and a lot of wide open 2s is just what they'll concede.

And corner threes, which Boston also doesn't rely on heavily. It's a weird matchup on that side of the ball for those reasons. Also, I feel like the narrative formed early on the Celtics this year, but they finished 10th in ORtg, they were pretty good. And the gap between 4th (Milwaukee) and 10th (Boston) was as close as 4th to 2nd (Houston).
   488. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 29, 2019 at 11:43 AM (#5836333)
Zach Lowe made a good point that Milwaukee is by far the best in the NBA at limiting shots at the rim, and they also don't foul much.

With everyone falling over themselves trying to find ways the series will regress towards Milwaukee (probably true for the most part), I do want to point out one worrying thing for them on this: While I do expect the Bucks to shoot more FTs than the Celtics going forward, I would not count on them continuing to get three times as many FTs. That's a really stark difference.
   489. jmurph Posted: April 29, 2019 at 11:45 AM (#5836335)
Another thing I noticed that the Bucks can and presumably will do much better on: I'm struggling to remember a single time that they went after Kyrie when the Celtics were on defense. Boston has gotten very good at bailing him out on switches by reswitching, and he has definitely improved his effort and effectiveness, but they have to do better there. I thought Boston, on the other hand, did a good job seeking out the bad individual defenders.
   490. spivey Posted: April 29, 2019 at 11:49 AM (#5836336)
With everyone falling over themselves trying to find ways the series will regress towards Milwaukee (probably true for the most part), I do want to point out one worrying thing for them on this: While I do expect the Bucks to shoot more FTs than the Celtics going forward, I would not count on them continuing to get three times as many FTs. That's a really stark difference.


Agreed. Giannis will also not shoot this well from 3.

I feel like Boston is the toughest matchup in the NBA for Milwaukee besides Golden State, and pretty much all those concerns were borne out. I think it's too early to panic, but what this shows me is that Giannis will have to create better shots on his drives. Boston mostly was able to get better looks, even setting aside the shooting differences. Also, there's not much margin for error, now.
   491. jmurph Posted: April 29, 2019 at 11:55 AM (#5836338)
It's funny because I can talk myself into all kinds of micro, matchup reasons that Boston can pull this out, but stepping back, it seems the more likely scenario is just that Giannis has 4 great games and Middleton ends up averaging 25+ and somebody like Mirotic or Ilyasova shoots 60% from three from here on out.

EDIT: Like, nothing has to go particularly right or wrong for either team for Giannis to go 15-18 from the line in game 2.
   492. jmurph Posted: April 29, 2019 at 12:11 PM (#5836348)
Another thing I noticed that the Bucks can and presumably will do much better on: I'm struggling to remember a single time that they went after Kyrie when the Celtics were on defense. Boston has gotten very good at bailing him out on switches by reswitching

Excellent timing, video example of this (twitter link).
   493. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: April 29, 2019 at 12:16 PM (#5836351)
Sunday sucked. If the difference between regular season and playoffs is that stark then it plays to teams just treating the reg season like a prolonged warmup. Interested in seeing what changes Bud makes.
   494. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: April 29, 2019 at 12:55 PM (#5836369)
Tactically stupid, but I think Houston strategically needed to plant a flag on the refereeing ASAP. If the series is called anything like the 1st half was yesterday, they have no chance.


I guess so, but in my off-and-on watching yesterday, CP3 and D'antoni got back-to-back technicals, and Paul got the one at the end, in a game they lost by 4 points.

   495. Booey Posted: April 29, 2019 at 01:05 PM (#5836373)
If the difference between regular season and playoffs is that stark then it plays to teams just treating the reg season like a prolonged warmup.


I don't think that it is. Match ups do matter, but I can think of only a few instances of a team really "turning it on" in the playoffs. Only one team with less than 50 regular season wins and/or a playoff seed lower than 3rd has won a title in the last 40 years (the 1995 Rockets were the 6th seed at 47-35). Hell, only 2 other champs in that time frame won fewer than 56 regular season games (the 2004 Pistons were 54-28 and the 2006 Heat were 52-30).

The teams near the top of the regular season standings are still generally the best bets to be tops in the postseason as well.
   496. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: April 29, 2019 at 01:35 PM (#5836390)
495--I was speaking to the general consensus of 'bucks were the hawks of a few years ago, they are not built for the playoffs, giannis is overrated, celtics will roll them'

My stance is whatever becomes the 'take' after an event is likely wrong because people are bad at understanding what is real and what is an outlier. So I hear you that Bucks still have a good shot.
   497. jmurph Posted: April 29, 2019 at 01:36 PM (#5836392)
495--I was speaking to the general consensus of 'bucks were the hawks of a few years ago, they are not built for the playoffs, giannis is overrated, celtics will roll them'

These things are extremely not the general consensus.
   498. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: April 29, 2019 at 01:51 PM (#5836399)
I'm curious, does Denver have a historically above-average home court advantage because of the elevation? Since starters play more minutes in the playoffs, I wouldn't be shocked if conditioning plays a larger role in April and May.


They do. Based on underperformance in playoffs from Jazz greats, I've wondered if the elevation advantage is less in the playoffs, however. Opposing teams spend more time there to get acclimated to the elevation, and they are never playing back-to-backs. I don't know if anyone (like Pelton?) has looked at this, however, so I may just be completely off base.
   499. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: April 29, 2019 at 02:07 PM (#5836410)
the general consensus
I don't think it's the consensus here, and from what I've seen on twitter (I don't know where to look this up myself, and if I did, I think my work's firewall would screen it out) the Vegas odds only moved from -300 Bucks to -100 Bucks; either way, my read is that most people expect that to have been the worst Milwaukee will play the Celtics all series.

Now, I've certainly been talking a lot of trash in person to that effect, but that's just having some fun getting carried away after a dramatic win. For what it's worth, I do think the Celtics are more likely to win the series*, but that prediction comes with very large error bars: I would not be even a little surprised if the Bucks make me eat those words. They're a really, really good team, and Giannis absolutely has the juice to swing the series himself.

* My inability to decide how much of my confidence in the Celtics was from accurately recognizing signs that the team was finally putting it together at the end of the season and how much was just me being an irrational fanboy (both certainly contributed) was a big reason I never put down official playoff predictions here.
   500. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: April 29, 2019 at 02:41 PM (#5836424)
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