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Tuesday, April 16, 2019

OT - NBA thread (Playoffs through off-season)

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, and this one only cares about the NBA thread and the Cubs so I have no idea what the rest of the website cares about.

Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: April 16, 2019 at 02:18 PM | 6831 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

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   6001. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: July 11, 2019 at 09:23 AM (#5860923)
Flip
   6002. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 11, 2019 at 01:44 PM (#5861014)
Lamar Odom's attempt to reboot his basketball career lasted one game.

The two-time NBA champion, whose career and life unraveled due to drug addiction, was one of four former NBA players "deactivated" for the season Wednesday by the Big3, the 3-on-3 league created by Ice Cube.

Per those with knowledge of the situation*, Odom, Jermaine O'Neal, Bonzi Wells and Baron Davis were deactivated for competitive reasons and not due to any off-the-court issues. Odom was not "up to it from a competitive standpoint," a source said.

---

The Big3 did not specify a reason for the deactivations, saying only that the moves were tied to the league's desire to "maximize competition, protect the health of the players, and to raise the level of the professionalism of the Big3."

---

In its third season, the Big3 has increased the level of competition and graduated from being a pickup league for over-the-hill former pros to an organization that's giving players such as Royce White, a former first-round pick, a possible springboard back into the NBA.

Joe Johnson, a seven-time NBA All-Star, has been a force this season, leading the league in scoring.


Copied liberally from ESPN's story. Not totally sure why Odom gets the headline treatment here.

*They have sources there? Do they also have a BIG3 Woj?
   6003. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: July 11, 2019 at 02:01 PM (#5861021)
Walker doesn’t fit the stereotype of a Spur: He’s a reckless player who comes into the game looking to attack his defender and never stops. He averaged 16.6 points on 43.9 percent shooting in the G League last season, and is averaging 24.8 points on 55 percent shooting in four games in Vegas. It’s hard to blame Walker for rarely moving the ball (one assist per game in Vegas) when he knows he can score at will. At 6-foot-5 and 205 pounds, he can consistently beat defenders off the dribble, elevate over them, and knock down tough jumpers. Walker has no mercy on players who can’t guard him. I almost felt bad for Orlando’s Erik McCree, a 25-year-old who spent last season in Italy, when Walker spent an entire game getting in his face and talking trash.
Kostas showed enough at summer league to make me believe he would be worth playing even if his last name weren’t Antetokounmpo.

His numbers aren’t that great: 7.3 points on 47 percent shooting, 1.7 rebounds, and one block in 15 minutes per game. But he made a lot of interesting plays. There aren’t many bigs who can defend on the perimeter, make Eurostep moves on the way to the basket, and knock down 3s.

To be sure, Kostas can’t do any of those things consistently.

...Giannis will be a free agent in the summer of 2021, when Luka Doncic will still be on his rookie deal. A Big Three of Giannis, Luka, and Kristaps Porzingis would fit together perfectly
The Five Most Intriguing Second-Year Players at NBA Summer League
   6004. Davo Posted: July 11, 2019 at 05:11 PM (#5861103)
@ChaseHughesNBCS
The NBA has announced today’s Wizards-Hawks game (6:30 pm ET) will have an alternate broadcast shot exclusively with smartphone cameras.

Clearly an homage to High Flying Bird.
   6005. Howie Menckel Posted: July 11, 2019 at 08:29 PM (#5861153)

WOJ BOMB!

Adrian Wojnarowski
‏Verified account @wojespn
2m2 minutes ago

The Oklahoma City Thunder have agreed to trade Russell Westbrook to the Houston Rockets for Chris Paul, first-round picks in 2024 and 2026, pick swaps in 2021 and 2025, league sources tell ESPN.
   6006. JJ1986 Posted: July 11, 2019 at 08:35 PM (#5861154)
I hate that for Houston.
   6007. Fourth True Outcome Posted: July 11, 2019 at 08:37 PM (#5861156)
Holy cow does OKC has some draft capital now.
   6008. Jtsports01 Posted: July 11, 2019 at 08:38 PM (#5861157)
Yeah, I do t sally understand this for Houston.
   6009. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: July 11, 2019 at 08:43 PM (#5861158)
WOJ BOMB!
the next obvious move for OKC:

MIN: chris paul
OKC: gorgui dieng, andrew wiggins, 2022 #1, 2024 #1, 2026 #1, pick swaps in 2023 and 2025.


and:
WAS: andrew wiggins, stephen adams
OKC: john wall, 2020 #1, 2022 #1, 2024 #1, 2026 #1, pick swaps in 2021, 2023 and 2025.
   6010. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 11, 2019 at 08:51 PM (#5861160)
Yeah, doubt Paul stays there. That's a huge wow move.

I also am not convinced the rockets are better.
   6011. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: July 11, 2019 at 08:51 PM (#5861161)
Holy wow
   6012. aberg Posted: July 11, 2019 at 08:52 PM (#5861162)
I don't hate it for Houston. Westbrook is a lot better than the current version of Paul, and the fact that it's almost financially neutral means you don't have to worry as much about Westbrook's contract. Mda will be the best coach he's ever had. Fit will take time, but talent over fit has worked for them. Makes even more sense to push chips in with no clear favorite.
   6013. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: July 11, 2019 at 08:58 PM (#5861163)
WAS: andrew wiggins, stephen adams
OKC: john wall, 2020 #1, 2022 #1, 2024 #1, 2026 #1, pick swaps in 2021, 2023 and 2025.
I laughed.
   6014. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: July 11, 2019 at 08:59 PM (#5861164)
Pistons could've beat this offer but didn't. Guess they had no interest. Caveat being maybe OKC just doesn't give a crap about paying Paul the next 3 years because WTF does it matter?

EDIT - And jokes aside Wall for Paul seems at least possible, doesn't it?
   6015. Quaker Posted: July 11, 2019 at 09:02 PM (#5861166)
Paul is better than Westbrook.
   6016. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: July 11, 2019 at 09:03 PM (#5861167)
Maybe the Pistons will get Paul to form the older, gimpier version of Lob City?
   6017. Harlond Posted: July 11, 2019 at 09:03 PM (#5861168)
I hope when this all shakes out, Steven Adams is where he wants to be. Love that guy as a person and a player.
   6018. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: July 11, 2019 at 09:05 PM (#5861169)
Maybe the Pistons will get Paul to form the older, gimpier version of Lob City?


Lob City, Detroit. Older and Colder.
   6019. PJ Martinez Posted: July 11, 2019 at 09:20 PM (#5861170)
Daryl Morey knows a lot more about basketball than I do, and Russell Westbrook is younger and more durable than Chris Paul, and multiple reports suggest that the chemistry situation in Houston was untenable, but this still seems like a terrible move for the Rockets.
   6020. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: July 11, 2019 at 09:24 PM (#5861172)
Paul is better than Westbrook.


But not nearly as often.
   6021. Davo Posted: July 11, 2019 at 09:26 PM (#5861174)
Maybe it’s cuz they both play in Houston, or maybe I just buy into stupid hype, but the Rockets seem like the Astros, in that I fully expect any player who gets traded to them to take advantage of their analytics and start playing WAY better.

Especially a guy like Westbrook, who has such glaringly obvious weaknesses in his game (too many jumpers!)—if any team could get him to stop, it’s gotta be Houston, right?
   6022. yo la tengo Posted: July 11, 2019 at 09:28 PM (#5861176)
So, now the Chris Paul mystery begins, right? Maybe Pat Riley wants Chris Paul?
   6023. jmurph Posted: July 11, 2019 at 09:42 PM (#5861177)
I... do not think Morey works for the Rockets 12 months from now. I can’t believe they had to include that level of draft compensation.
   6024. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 11, 2019 at 09:48 PM (#5861179)
OKC 1sts:
2020 Own (1-20)
2020 DEN (11-30)
2021 Own (HOU 5-30 swap right)
2021 MIA (HOU 5-30 swap right)
2022 Own (1-14)
2022 LAC
2023 Own (LAC swap right)
2023 MIA (15-30)
2024 Own
2024 LAC
2024 HOU (5-30)
2025 Own (LAC and HOU 21-30 swap right)
2026 Own
2026 LAC
2026 HOU (5-30)


Kinda staggering to see.
   6025. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: July 11, 2019 at 09:51 PM (#5861181)
I... do not think Morey works for the Rockets 12 months from now. I can’t believe they had to include that level of draft compensation.


I had decided against posting about it because I'm just pulling it out of my ass, but I've been suspecting Morey doesn't intend to be in Houston more than about another two years tops, too.

Then again, there's the same element in play that's driving half the league right now--the fact Golden State is dead (God save Golden State) and the 2020 title is up for grabs in what feels like an almost unprecedented way.

I wouldn't feel great about this if I were a Rockets fan, but as a neutral, I'm pumped.
   6026. PreservedFish Posted: July 11, 2019 at 10:10 PM (#5861183)
Browsing the Rockets roster, I came across a player that I was previously totally unaware of: PJ Tucker. What is he good at? Why did he start 82 games? Is he a defensive genius or something? He takes 3's occasionally, never otherwise shoots the ball, gets absolutely no assists, few rebounds... by the statistics it kind of seems like he's just standing there.
   6027. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: July 11, 2019 at 10:34 PM (#5861189)
Yep, Tucker stands in the corner, shoots 3s, and D's up. That has value!
   6028. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: July 11, 2019 at 10:39 PM (#5861190)
I... do not think Morey works for the Rockets 12 months from now. I can’t believe they had to include that level of draft compensation.
I had decided against posting about it because I'm just pulling it out of my ass, but I've been suspecting Morey doesn't intend to be in Houston more than about another two years tops, too.
.
let me third this sentiment.

it seems like morey has issues with HOU's coach (dan tony), the new owner (furlita), the team's best players (harden and/or paul; that problem may have just been solved), and iirc, he was not entirely unreceptive when the sixers approached him to take over as GM after that ####### colangelo thing last year.


i would not surprised if he's ready to move on and get a fresh start somewhere else.
   6029. Howie Menckel Posted: July 11, 2019 at 10:42 PM (#5861191)

Bobby Marks
‏Verified account @BobbyMarks42

Bobby Marks Retweeted Bobby Marks

Chris Paul can be traded immediately after the trade is finalized. The two-month restriction only applies if his salary is aggregated with another player on the Thunder.
   6030. PJ Martinez Posted: July 11, 2019 at 10:45 PM (#5861192)
Tucker's a pretty versatile defender, too, isn't he? And is thought of as a smart role player who makes the right decisions, I think. Seems like some people might argue that he was their third-best player last year, depending of course on how you value Gordon and Capela. (I haven't read this piece in a while, but it comes to mind as the analysis of perhaps a more shining version of this sort of player.)
   6031. jobu Posted: July 11, 2019 at 10:54 PM (#5861193)
For what it's worth, Chris Paul started his pro career in OKC, and that two-year experience with the Hornets basically established OKC as a city that would support an NBA team, which led to everything else. For the Thunder to trade its iconic player, the return is poetic. I think there is a decent chance Paul stays in OKC if it's up to the team.
   6032. I am going to be Frank Posted: July 11, 2019 at 11:02 PM (#5861194)
So, is it possible to have too many 1st round picks? It definitely gives you a lot of options - trading up, attaching them to dump bad contracts, ability to sell them, etc. - but if OKC is going to build through the draft, these picks are going to need roster spots and playing time.

How many 1st rounders do you have to attach to Paul's contract to just get back expiring deals?
   6033. spivey Posted: July 11, 2019 at 11:09 PM (#5861196)
This NBA off-season is the gift that keeps on giving. I agree that though Paul is better on a per minute basis, that’s declining rapidly and Westbrook is way healthier. But Paul is a better fit. I figured 1 first would be enough to get Westbrook. I dunno, I love where OKC is at. Also I low key think they have a chance to make the playoffs if they keep Gallo and CP3 and are healthy.
   6034. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 11, 2019 at 11:10 PM (#5861197)
I haven’t seen a thing on Paul v Westbrook yet that talks about defense. Likely, this is because that’s way less interesting than other aspects of this weird deal but - Paul is still good at it and Russ is not.
   6035. tshipman Posted: July 11, 2019 at 11:12 PM (#5861199)
Daryl Morey knows a lot more about basketball than I do, and Russell Westbrook is younger and more durable than Chris Paul, and multiple reports suggest that the chemistry situation in Houston was untenable, but this still seems like a terrible move for the Rockets.


yeah. This is a #######-A trade for the Thunder.

They get more salary flexibility, they get a player they can move easier, and they get 4 draft assets.

Like, if they turn around and turn Chris Paul into Andrew Wiggins and even MORE picks? Omg.
   6036. tshipman Posted: July 11, 2019 at 11:16 PM (#5861202)
I haven’t seen a thing on Paul v Westbrook yet that talks about defense. Likely, this is because that’s way less interesting than other aspects of this weird deal but - Paul is still good at it and Russ is not.


Or really doing anything besides rebounding when he doesn't have the ball in his hands!

Russell Westbrook is great at running the ball down the opponent's throat and at generating shots without turnovers. Houston plays super slow, and already has the best player in the NBA at generating shots without turnovers!

Edit: Houston got worse, agreed to take on more money, and gave up draft picks for the privilege.
   6037. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: July 11, 2019 at 11:28 PM (#5861203)
How many 1st rounders do you have to attach to Paul's contract to just get back expiring deals?
they're OKC, not LA; if they hope to create cap space so they can attract giannis (or whoever), that's...not gonna happen.
So, is it possible to have too many 1st round picks? It definitely gives you a lot of options - trading up, attaching them to dump bad contracts, ability to sell them, etc. - but if OKC is going to build through the draft, these picks are going to need roster spots and playing time.

nah.


first, you need to draft a star.
next, you need to draft or trade or sign another one.
then, you need to do it again.

the mistake the sixers made (because everything always revolves around the sixers) was trading for that shitty MF, instead of jimmy butler. they could have offered a comparable package (two picks, plus maybe dario), and still had enough cap room to sign redick while keeping covington.

   6038. Davo Posted: July 11, 2019 at 11:40 PM (#5861204)
   6039. PJ Martinez Posted: July 11, 2019 at 11:46 PM (#5861205)
Of the 24 players in the 2017 NBA All-Star Game, just 7 are still with the same team
   6040. PJ Martinez Posted: July 12, 2019 at 12:02 AM (#5861206)
Grayson Allen, now with the Grizzlies, has picked up a technical foul and now two flagrant fouls (and ejection) in this summer league game against the Celtics.
   6041. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: July 12, 2019 at 12:25 AM (#5861208)
Houston: I am with berg here--I don't hate it for Houston. A few basic metrics on Westbrook from last year:
DBPM: 3.9
VORP: 5.6
WS/48: .124

His shooting dropped off big-time in two areas: He hit .656 at the stripe, even though his career is .801. After an entire career over .80, he has been at .737 and .656 the last two years. He still finishes pretty well, but he hit .208 from 3-10 feet, after a career over 30. That is only 8.8% of his FGs.

I don't think his similarities to Harden are a big deal. To me the keys are:

1. Whether he can get his 3 percent up a little playing MDA ball.
2. Whether he is in free-fall decline or some of these things are just blips.

But he still finishes pretty well, still gets to the line pretty well, still gets steals, still is pretty good at ball security, and still has a high DBPM, and still has good on/off numbers. People dislike the guy and he clanks a ton of 3s, but I do not see this as a terrible gamble by Morey.
   6042. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: July 12, 2019 at 12:52 AM (#5861211)
Paul: I have to think Riley is on the phone right now. In spite of his age and decline, Paul is a guy who is still a good player, and I would like to see him go East and play with Butler. Paul just turned 34; Westbrook will be 31 in Nov.
League: The break-ups of Toronto and Golden State have created a situation such that nobody has more than two big-name stars, and the league is wide open, which is a change from how it has been the last few years. So people are interested to see how it all goes down, which is a good thing.
   6043. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: July 12, 2019 at 12:55 AM (#5861212)
OKC: Presti is a smart guy, and he may leverage all these picks into a killer team. But OKC has now traded or lost every star player that they have ever had. I am ready for them to go back to Seattle, wear the green-and-gold retro Sonics unis, and be my favorite non-Laker squad.
   6044. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: July 12, 2019 at 12:59 AM (#5861213)
This is ####### awesome. The NBA, man! I can't wait to see how all this plays out.
   6045. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: July 12, 2019 at 01:22 AM (#5861217)
In baseball there are no time-outs

Incorrect. Baseball has infinite timeouts.
   6046. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 12, 2019 at 01:24 AM (#5861219)

If OKC had kept Paul George and traded for Chris Paul, that would have been a pretty interesting team.
   6047. Thok Posted: July 12, 2019 at 06:19 AM (#5861224)
So, is it possible to have too many 1st round picks?


If you believe in the Process, the answer is no.

I expect OKC to keep slowly downshifting through players. Paul will get traded again (to whichever one of Detroit/Miami/Orlando/Phoenix/Minnesota decides to throw enough first round picks at him) and then the players OKC acquires from that trade will also get traded for picks.
   6048. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: July 12, 2019 at 07:50 AM (#5861225)
I mean, if Westbrook’s deal can be moved, maybe there’s hope for Wiggins’.
   6049. bunyon Posted: July 12, 2019 at 08:21 AM (#5861230)
Grayson Allen, now with the Grizzlies, has picked up a technical foul and now two flagrant fouls (and ejection) in this summer league game against the Celtics.

I'm shocked. Shocked!


I expect OKC to keep slowly downshifting through players. Paul will get traded again (to whichever one of Detroit/Miami/Orlando/Phoenix/Minnesota decides to throw enough first round picks at him) and then the players OKC acquires from that trade will also get traded for picks.

I have family that are enormous Thunder fans. They came to OKC after I left the state so I root for them more for the joy they bring friends and family than any real fondness. People really liked Paul when he played there and are happy he came back for Westbrook. But it isn't lost on any of them that they haven't been able to keep their stars. Though I think getting rid of Westbrook, despite how much he was liked, was a good thing. I don't know if they could have kept Durant but that was the killer.

Maybe they'll draft well and bring in some younger talent. But draft picks don't win games, players do. Until you turn those picks into players, it's hard to get excited.
   6050. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: July 12, 2019 at 08:45 AM (#5861233)
I mean, if Westbrook’s deal can be moved, maybe there’s hope for Wiggins’.


I've been driving the anti-Westbrook bandwagon for years, but comparing him to Wiggins seems like a huge oversell. Westbrook is getting old, but he's still a star, and worth his money in the abstract.

Plus his deal was moved, yes--for another giant contract for an even older and more fragile star, plus a cache of picks.

Wiggins is mediocre and makes his teammates worse, and his contract will be a lot harder to move than Westbrook's.
   6051. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: July 12, 2019 at 08:49 AM (#5861234)
Maybe they'll draft well and bring in some younger talent. But draft picks don't win games, players do. Until you turn those picks into players, it's hard to get excited.


Clearly you are a fan of a good team. For Wolves fans traditionally draft picks are THE reason to get excited. When you slip in the draft and then they turn into players and it all goes to crap, that is the depressing part. But picks? Picks are pure fantasy joy time.
   6052. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: July 12, 2019 at 08:50 AM (#5861235)
And yes, I am still beating the drum that this is the most seismic off season ever.
   6053. bunyon Posted: July 12, 2019 at 08:59 AM (#5861240)
Mouse, don't get me wrong. Picks are exciting. But I think a lot of people (to be fair, not here, in my other online life that still largely connects to OK) people are equating a first round pick with a superstar. Which is nuts. There might be one superstar in their list of picks. Years from now. It was a lot more exciting to have Durant, Westbrook and Hardin on the same floor at the same time.

I do think it was a great trade for OKC. It just doesn't guarantee anything much.
   6054. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: July 12, 2019 at 09:27 AM (#5861254)
Wiggins is mediocre and makes his teammates worse, and his contract will be a lot harder to move than Westbrook's

Oh no doubt. But moving these giant albatross contracts was seemingly impossible, but now it seems that a motivated team can get it done, and that gives me hope.
   6055. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 12, 2019 at 09:48 AM (#5861265)
baseball is so random from game to game and, because of this, has amongst the least preordained playoffs -- whereas the nba can seem like exciting pre-coronations come the postseason.
and yet, hope seems so much stronger with basketball. maybe you'll luck into a few draft picks hitting. maybe you'll land that one free agent who can make a real difference.

it's interesting.
   6056. jmurph Posted: July 12, 2019 at 09:49 AM (#5861266)
If you believe in the Process, the answer is no.

I expect OKC to keep slowly downshifting through players. Paul will get traded again (to whichever one of Detroit/Miami/Orlando/Phoenix/Minnesota decides to throw enough first round picks at him) and then the players OKC acquires from that trade will also get traded for picks.

I would be very surprised if OKC did anything like a years long, Process style tank. Can't imagine they would want to risk that in their market.

   6057. bunyon Posted: July 12, 2019 at 10:08 AM (#5861280)
I would be very surprised if OKC did anything like a years long, Process style tank. Can't imagine they would want to risk that in their market.

If they hadn't had such golden years, they could probably pull it off. Now? No, I agree. If they tank, they're done.
   6058. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: July 12, 2019 at 10:38 AM (#5861311)
What exactly else is OKC supposed to do, when they have two stars and both of them demand a trade?

It's such a tough spot to be in. They could (maybe will) trade their mountain of picks in a deal here and a deal there for some decent veterans and make runs at an 8 seed. But that's just as much a losing game as going full Process, or more so.

In theory OKC is now as loaded as anyone to submit the best offer on the next superstar to demand a trade--except, when a superstar demands a trade, it's usually not to go to Oklahoma City. But hey, it worked with Paul George (for a while) so who knows, it's always possible.

I can't imagine Chris Paul is going to do anything but demand a trade out of OKC, if the current roster is what they're going into the season with. But who could they even trade a bunch of picks for to pair with him, at this point in the summer? And if they move him to Miami or wherever for some lesser players and more picks, they're going to be the worst team in the NBA next year.

Realistically, collecting lottery tickets and hoping one of them hits the jackpot may be the only shot at the team staying in OKC long term.
   6059. spivey Posted: July 12, 2019 at 10:46 AM (#5861316)
I don't see why OKC needs to do a year long process tank. Part of why the 76ers did it was after the Bynum trade they had basically no assets. They had to create those from being awful.

I think OKC's number of assets and the fact they won't be that good even if they try should allow them to do a "normal" rebuild. These picks also give them a lot of ammo for when another star becomes disgruntled, like Paul George. They can pretty quickly pivot these assets into a good player, when one becomes available, if they so choose. Gallo gives them some good salary matching options as well.
   6060. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 12, 2019 at 11:22 AM (#5861332)
The other thing is that being really awful could get you much better assets than being merely bad or mediocre. That's now less true than it was.
   6061. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: July 12, 2019 at 11:50 AM (#5861352)
OKC still has Adams. If the Thunder keep Paul then it's Paul, Adams, Alexander (who doesn't everyone think is going to be really good?), Patterson and Roberson. Is that the starting five? If the Thunder gets lucky on injury just Paul/Adams/Alexander might be good enough to get what, 7th or 8th seed? And then the picks too. Sure if they #### up the picks then long term the team sucks. But they don't have to suck this coming season. No idea if they keep Paul because sure there are reasons to deal
   6062. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: July 12, 2019 at 11:53 AM (#5861357)
Feeling not great about the Bucks when there is not a second best guy who can match all the teams who clearly have two top guys. I like Middleton but he cannot help Giannis match the 1-2 setups of multiple teams. The league clearly does not believe that depth can match having multiple premier talents
   6063. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: July 12, 2019 at 11:53 AM (#5861358)
I could be wrong but it seems to me that even in a miraculous universe where Paul plays 75 games and Adams plays 80, OKC will struggle to make the playoffs. In the East, sure. In the West...

Then again, now we have half the OKC team to test the Oladipo "guys get better when they get away from Westbrook!" theory.

Feeling not great about the Bucks when there is not a second best guy who can match all the teams who clearly have two top guys. I like Middleton but he cannot help Giannis match the 1-2 setups of multiple teams. The league clearly does not believe that depth can match having multiple premier talents


That's probably right, but Toronto's second best player last year was... Lowry?
   6064. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: July 12, 2019 at 11:57 AM (#5861361)
You know, there's a team out there who is looking at major attendance doldrums for several years, has bad contracts to exchange, and could use a hometown superstar to bring people to the arena. Can we get CP3 to the Horcats?

(After 15 years in the NBA, I assume Paul no longer really thinks of NC as home, but hey, this would be fun.)
   6065. spivey Posted: July 12, 2019 at 12:06 PM (#5861376)
Middleton isn't sexy, but in playoff iso-ball game, he retains pretty much all his value. He's an elite shooter and can get his points better than most. Milwaukee needs Bledsoe to be better in the playoffs, no two ways about it. Depth and role players who can do multiple things is still important. That was the backbone of many of the Spurs titles, and that's how Toronto won last year.
   6066. RJ in TO Posted: July 12, 2019 at 12:15 PM (#5861382)
That's probably right, but Toronto's second best player last year was... Lowry?
Or Siakam.
   6067. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: July 12, 2019 at 12:23 PM (#5861384)
If the Thunder keep Paul then it's Paul, Adams, Alexander (who doesn't everyone think is going to be really good?), Patterson and Roberson.
Don't forget Gallinari—if he stays healthy, I could see him making hay spotting up around Paul/Adams PnRs and either bombing threes or driving off the catch. Not the worst fallback plan if the market for Paul is cool.

Still, I expect they trade the short insurance salesman to the highest bidder, pick up a bunch of tradeable 5-10m contracts with upside risk, and spend the next few years scrapping for the playoffs, scouting draft picks, and calling other teams about star players.
   6068. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 12, 2019 at 12:25 PM (#5861386)
Paul is actually from NC and still does stuff for his high school, I'm told (by an alum).
--
Question for Wolves fans: Covington is on the block, right? What would it take to get him, in your opinion? He was supposedly offered with #11 for #4 - which implies a late first per Pelton research but I think that understates the asking price. (This is in the abstract, not for my Hawks who would not be in that market.)
   6069. nick swisher hygiene Posted: July 12, 2019 at 12:40 PM (#5861391)
why not keep Paul around til the trade deadline, so he mentors your 20-yr old potential star PG for half a season, and you can auction him off to the highest bidder at that point? or is there some reason to think his value would be higher now?
   6070. tshipman Posted: July 12, 2019 at 01:02 PM (#5861396)
why not keep Paul around til the trade deadline, so he mentors your 20-yr old potential star PG for half a season, and you can auction him off to the highest bidder at that point? or is there some reason to think his value would be higher now?


Paul's a big injury risk. So keeping him is a risk/reward play. He's worth more if healthy at the trade deadline, but he might not be healthy.
   6071. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: July 12, 2019 at 01:02 PM (#5861398)
Question for Wolves fans: Covington is on the block, right?

Yeah, it seems so. I wouldn't trade him, because I think he's basically the perfect fit with Towns, and his contract is great.
   6072. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: July 12, 2019 at 01:12 PM (#5861404)
Both LA and Hou kept Paul's average minutes per game during the season right around 32 which seems completely reasonable for a guy in his 30's. Paul did 34 minutes per game in 14/15 but every year since it's been 32 or a bit less. I know a team could reduce his time on the court even more but does that really reduce the injury risk? And then you need a really super solid backup if your starter is playing 60 percent of the minutes each game. Or a player who can help share the load with the nominal backup who may or may not be a guard. Just thinking out loud because I was wondering if there was any marginal return on load management with Paul but I don't really see anything significant. At least in theory
   6073. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 12, 2019 at 01:32 PM (#5861413)
And yes, I am still beating the drum that this is the most seismic off season ever.

Stats By STATS @StatsBySTATS 16h16 hours ago

With Russell Westbrook going to Houston, 6 of the 15 All-NBA players from last season have switched teams this offseason (Durant, George, Irving, Leonard, Walker, Westbrook).

Prior to this year, there had never been more than 3 All-NBA players changing teams in one offseason.


That list doesn't even include AD or Butler or Rozier.
   6074. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: July 12, 2019 at 01:34 PM (#5861415)
That list doesn't even include AD or Butler or Rozier.

Savage.
   6075. spivey Posted: July 12, 2019 at 01:51 PM (#5861418)
The other benefit to trading Paul is if they're continuing to try to whittle down how much over the tax they are. The NBA trade machine seems updated, and they're ~4 mill above the luxury tax. I imagine they are repeaters as well. They could maybe do a trade to get under that. Though I think most of shopping Paul now is what tship said in 6070. The other thing is Paul's on his last legs, and probably doesn't want to be there.

I forgot they had Schroder for 2 years, 15mill/yr still.
   6076. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 12, 2019 at 02:28 PM (#5861432)
Marc Stein @TheSteinLine 15m15 minutes ago

Tyson Chandler has agreed to a one-year deal with the Houston Rockets, his agent Jeff Scwhartz tells @NYTSports


I thought he liked playing with CP.
   6077. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: July 12, 2019 at 03:18 PM (#5861446)
i get why this deal may have been necessary for HOU, but it does lower their ceiling by a fairly significant amount.

with paul/harden, all HOU had to do was get hot from beyond the arc 4 times in 7 games. and hell, two years ago, all they really needed was not to go ice cold (which they couldn't manage).

without paul, HOU won't be able to outscore harden's defensive indifference anymore. HOU's last year without paul, they lost to a spurs team, whose leading scorers were kawhi (24 PPG; 61% TS%), lamarcus aldridge (19 PPG; 51% TS%) and jonathan ####### simmons (13 PPG; 54% TS%).


without paul, they can lose to anyone in the west.
   6078. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: July 12, 2019 at 03:25 PM (#5861452)
without paul, HOU won't be able to outscore harden's defensive indifference anymore. HOU's last year without paul, they lost to a spurs team, whose leading scorers were kawhi (24 PPG; 61% TS%), lamarcus aldridge (19 PPG; 51% TS%) and jonathan ####### simmons (13 PPG; 54% TS%).


Eh, that was the first edition Rockets, where they shot literally no midrangers. Popovich deployed an incredible defense where they literally did not bother to guard Harden between the three-point line and the restricted area and it got the job done. Houston has evolved beyond that with or without Paul. Obviously Paul has helped them the last couple years (especially 2017-18) but I don't think that series has much bearing on the future (also, that Spurs team was damn good until Zaza Pachulia destroyed the franchise).
   6079. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: July 12, 2019 at 08:58 PM (#5861546)
That was the backbone of many of the Spurs titles, and that's how Toronto won last year.


The 2003 Spurs team was arguably Prime Duncan and role players, but Robinson was still pretty badass in the 1999 playoffs, and the 2005 and 2007 SA teams had full-throttle Ginobili and Parker. Ginobili's playoff PERs those years were 24.8 and 21.9. In 2014, at age 36, Ginobili put up a playoff PER of 20.3, and that team ofc had Leonard and still had Old Duncan, plus Parker.

As to last year, Toronto was 90-90 last possession in G7 against the 76ers when Leonard's amazing shot dropped, and with Durant gone and Thompson mostly gone, that team was arguably the team Toronto faced with the best star power, and that team actually came the closest to beating them.

As I said many times, I was mildly skeptical of Toronto and Milwaukee in postseason because neither team had that #2 guy. Middleton and Bledsoe are good players, and so are Siakam and Lowry, but they are not on the level of Paul George or Jimmy Butler. So the takeaway for me is that one-star teams can win if things break right: Dallas 2011 and Toronto 2019 are the recent examples. Also, as discussed many times five-very-good can win if they all fit, stay healthy, and things break right: early 70s Knicks, Bad Boy Pistons, 2004 Pistons. But the route is still stars, and it is worth noting that Leonard agreed to the Clippers deal only after they got him his #2. Milwaukee has a #1 and 2 #3s, and since no one else has more than two stars, and Leonard and James have moved West, and Durant will be on rehab, they have a great shot to put up a banner. But if they don't do it this year, Horst may start looking for GA's wingman.

I think Popovich is probably the greatest coach ever, and I think he has done phenomenal post-Leonard work in SA (although he seems to be getting a pass for how Leonard left). But SA has not gotten out of the first round without a guy like Robinson, Duncan, or Leonard.
   6080. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: July 13, 2019 at 05:11 PM (#5861651)
The BTF offseason for your beloved Orlando Magic felt incomplete, as we ended with 33M in cap space and the results of who we were able to sign would really determine whether or not it worked. I thought I'd take a stab at filling out the roster. My ground rules were to be able to sign any player for 10% more than they signed for rounded up, except max guys who you presumably can't get and anyone who looks like they took a big discount to chase a ring (e.g. Cousins). You can only sign RFAs who switched teams, and you have to give up anything that was given up in a S&T to get them. Here's where we started:

PG: Holiday (26M) / Augustin (7.25))
SG: ???? / Weatherspoon
SF: Gordon (19.8) / Iwundu (1.6)
PF: Isaac (5.8)
C: ???? / Bamba (5.7)

Dead money: Fultz (9.7M), Jonathon Simmons (1M, rest is unguaranteed), CJ Watson (0.3M stretched)
Cap space: about 33M
Others: Louis King, our other draft pick, is a project and will likely be spending most of his time in the G League.

With our 33M in cap space, we are signing:

SG Danny Green to 2/33 (16.5M annual)
SG Quinn Cook to 2/7 (3.5M)
F DeMarre Carroll to 3/24 (8M)
C Boban Marjanovic to 2/8 (4M)

PG: Holiday / Augustin
SG: Green / Weatherspoon / Cook
SF: Gordon / Carroll / Iwundu
PF: Isaac / Carroll
C: Marjanovic / Bamba
Wild card: Fultz

We are planning to close games with a lineup of Holiday / Green / Carroll / Gordon / Isaac -- Isaac will get a decent amount of time at the five.
   6081. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: July 14, 2019 at 02:54 PM (#5861791)
has anyone explained what is happening with all of these future draft picks getting traded?

it would be one thing if these picks were traded as if they had value, and i get that flags fly forever, but these picks are being thrown around like candy. aren't we supposed to know better than to do that?



it almost makes me think that these teams expect the draft to go away by 2022/3/4; that they expect these picks will not actually convey as draft picks.

maybe "gamble" is a better description than "expect".
   6082. Booey Posted: July 14, 2019 at 03:13 PM (#5861793)
#6081 - I think everyone is just trying to squeeze in one quick title now before the next superteam dynasty forms and renders all their efforts moot. They won't be winning once that happens anyway, so those picks don't seem that important. All of that is tomorrows problem.
   6083. JJ1986 Posted: July 14, 2019 at 03:21 PM (#5861797)
it almost makes me think that these teams expect the draft to go away by 2022/3/4; that they expect these picks will not actually convey as draft picks.
No.
   6084. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: July 14, 2019 at 07:00 PM (#5861832)
I disagree with both 6081 and 6082.

I think the LA teams giving up the boatloads of picks was reflective of two things:

1. The unique situations they were in. Pelinka HAD to have the guy to go with James, and the one who wanted to be here was not an UFA yet. Frank/West/Rivers, as I said, had a chance to finally end the "JV/Little Brother" narrative, and put together a team that really can put up a banner in Staples that is not purple and gold, and might have been looking at a Three-Headed Purple-and-Gold Monster had they not done so.
2. As Lowe put it in the excerpt I posted, stars "don't care" about your hoarded assets and nice cap sheet. They generally want other stars to play with, preferably in a city that they think is cool. Ainge and Stevens are smart guys and Boston is a good org, but in the end, Davis didn't care about Danny Ainge's "war chest" or the "culture" under Brad Stevens. He wanted to be in LA with James. Ujiri and Nurse are smart guys and Toronto is a good org, but Leonard wanted to be in LA with another star, as long as it wasn't James. In the Davis presser, Pelinka said that he sees the Lakers' relationship with James and Davis as a "partnership." I recall berg mildly criticizing the Lakers signing both Cousins and McGee both. In the presser, Davis and Pelinka both talked that up, because with two veteran bigs around, one of whom is a buddy of Davis's, Davis won't have to play much 5 until crunch time, which is a pretty big deal for Davis, and he said so in the presser. This is part of team-building in the LeBron James Player Empowerment Era and of course, Davis will be an UFA in July 2020.

I also don't buy the fatalism of 6082--that teams are trying to sneak in a title before the next superteam. That is just what Booey is experiencing as a Utah fan seeing all these guys go to LA and NY. To the degree these guys are thinking about "the next superteam" at all, I think they are thinking that they can BE the next superteam, not that they better win before it evolves.

So, two of my takeaways from the 2019 FA cycle are:

1. It is always a good idea to remember that NBA stars probably see most of this stuff very differently than we as fans do. Many Lakers fans said a ton of silly stuff from April through July because they forgot that. Lowe's piece summarized it nicely.
2. With the Lakers having the guys on short deals, and Leonard signing the 2+1, there is already talk of Antetokounmpo coming to LA in 2021. But GA might see the whole thing totally differently and sign a long deal in Milwaukee before he even hits FA. No one knows, and it all comes back to the individual guy. As someone pointed out, pretty much everything that was linked/leaked about Leonard was wrong, and Leonard was able to leverage three organizations and get exactly what he wanted. I suspect that other stars and agents may take a lesson from that.
   6085. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: July 14, 2019 at 07:31 PM (#5861843)
And yet pretty much everything that was linked/leaked about Leonard way back at the beginning of the drama, when he was still employed by San Antonio, was right: He wanted to play in L.A. with another star.

There's dissonance, rr, between the last paragraph of your post and everything that came before it (which I think is very on point). Milwaukee's good enough that he probably won't try to force his way out early, but in two years Antetokounmpo will very likely do the same thing most modern superstars do: go to a "cool" city alongside another star.

I don't know anything about Giannis Antetokounmpo personally, of course. But I do know he is an NBA superstar, and so the smart money is on him doing what most NBA superstars do.

Another sea change happening in the NBA is that teams know that if they dream of acquiring a superstar, they will need to create cap space for two max contracts. That's the effect of the phenomenon Lowe wrote about: superstars now expect a team to clear space for (or trade for) another superstar to go alongside them. So there's still a lot of value in acquiring a War Chest that can be used on demand to acquire a star or unload your own big contracts to create space to sign one.

It looks likely now that Ainge's War Chest will come to nothing--but I don't think he missed the ball by much. Gordon Hayward destroyed his foot on day one of his max contract, and LeBron attracted Davis to the Lakers. There are plenty of universes out there where Hayward stayed healthy and Ainge cashed in his hoard for Davis, and they won the title last month and are well positioned to repeat in 2020. So much stuff happens that's outside anyone's control.
   6086. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: July 14, 2019 at 07:44 PM (#5861847)
As a Bucks fan who thinks Giannis is awesome I am totally prepped for him leaving because yeah.
   6087. Tin Angel Posted: July 14, 2019 at 07:52 PM (#5861850)
It's crazy (and kind of depressing) that people are already talking about what Giannis might do in 2021. Let's just enjoy watching him and see what happens.
   6088. Eddo Posted: July 14, 2019 at 08:21 PM (#5861854)
I think the bigger conclusion I draw from rr's 6084 is that expecting any generic superstar to act a certain way is kind of silly, in the same way we don't expect it in other professions. No one says, "In three years, I expect [insert trendy new actor here] to demand to be the star of a superhero movie" - some choose blockbusters, some choose indie films, some choose Oscar bait, etc. - and NBA superstars are individuals with varying motivations, too.

EDIT: I guess it's "superstars are people, too". Some people choose a job because they like the location, others because they believe in what the company sells, and others because they anticipate liking the people they work with.
   6089. Tin Angel Posted: July 14, 2019 at 08:28 PM (#5861856)
It reminds me of the Harper/Machado thing, which went on for two or three years and which no one got right. I just don't get speculating on something so far away. Two years ago who could have predicted what would happen with Leonard or George or Westbrook?
   6090. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: July 14, 2019 at 08:33 PM (#5861857)
The more agency the players have, the more different ways of working they will express. Seems pretty straightforward to me.
   6091. Tin Angel Posted: July 14, 2019 at 08:42 PM (#5861859)
Yes, exactly. What I'm saying is, since that's the case, why start worrying about what Giannis might do two years from now? We have absolutely no idea.
   6092. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: July 14, 2019 at 08:43 PM (#5861860)
Yes, exactly. What I'm saying is, since that's the case, why start worrying about what Giannis might do two years from now? We have absolutely no idea.

Without worrying, what do we, as fans, even have any more?
   6093. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: July 14, 2019 at 08:44 PM (#5861861)
Like, it is far too early to extrapolate from an n of 1 that all teams will need two max slots, or that no player will ever sign with the Thunder, or whatever.
   6094. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: July 14, 2019 at 08:46 PM (#5861862)
What is undeniably true is that teams will have to listen to their players, and that players are increasingly being straightforward with their demands.
   6095. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: July 14, 2019 at 09:24 PM (#5861865)
Paste did call James and Davis here, so I should note that before any replies.

Leonard: The stuff about Leonard and LA pre-FA was mostly just spec, and when he was in the process, the narrative was no short deal and no Clippers. The spec was based a lot on Leonard being a SoCal guy. So, in the end, James prioritized location over immediate winning based largely on show biz interests. Davis wanted to play with James. Leonard and George are from hardscrabblish parts of the "Inland Empire"--Moreno Valley and Palmdale--so this whole thing makes more sense in retrospect.
Antetokounmpo: Is from Greece, not SoCal, and there is no evidence that I am aware of that he wants to be in show biz. And yes, spec about it now is kind of annoying, and I only brought it up to make a larger point. But that won't stop the internet from doing the internet.
Ainge/Boston: I wasn't bagging on him; the Boston fans here are mostly cool about Lakers/Celtics, and even if they weren't, the Lakers have the worst record in the NBA since 2013. Ainge is a good GM, and we all know you need luck and timing, too. Ask Daryl Morey. That said, I am not into "alternate universe" stuff. The NBA isn't the movies, and Ainge's plan didn't work. His next one might, but this one didn't.
   6096. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: July 14, 2019 at 09:25 PM (#5861866)
Agree with 6088 and 6094.
   6097. tshipman Posted: July 14, 2019 at 09:35 PM (#5861868)
I think the bigger conclusion I draw from rr's 6084 is that expecting any generic superstar to act a certain way is kind of silly, in the same way we don't expect it in other professions. No one says, "In three years, I expect [insert trendy new actor here] to demand to be the star of a superhero movie" - some choose blockbusters, some choose indie films, some choose Oscar bait, etc. - and NBA superstars are individuals with varying motivations, too.

EDIT: I guess it's "superstars are people, too". Some people choose a job because they like the location, others because they believe in what the company sells, and others because they anticipate liking the people they work with.


I agree strongly with this, and would add only that we shouldn't trust what we hear from various reporters.

There's a trap that people fall into that makes them think that they can accurately interpret folks' motivations. I am guilty of it myself. I thought Kawhi was headed back to Toronto after he hit that 4 bounce winner at the end of the ECF.
   6098. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: July 14, 2019 at 09:37 PM (#5861869)
Agree with 6097 and I have made that mistake as well. BTW, Leonard's shot was in the conference semis.
   6099. spivey Posted: July 14, 2019 at 10:18 PM (#5861872)
I also think people do way too many assumptions about what players are going to do a in 1-3 years. Life comes at you fast and I don’t see any reason to think Kawhi knew he wouldn’t stay in Toronto all year. Indeed, some of the chatter suggests with the right trades they could have kept him.

I can’t guarantee where I’ll be working in 2 years. New information alters all of our decisions, including players.
   6100. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 14, 2019 at 10:22 PM (#5861873)
If OKC had kept Paul George and traded for Chris Paul, that would have been a pretty interesting team.


Especially if they also got George Hill and Marquese Chriss.
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