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Tuesday, April 16, 2019

OT - NBA thread (Playoffs through off-season)

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, and this one only cares about the NBA thread and the Cubs so I have no idea what the rest of the website cares about.

Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: April 16, 2019 at 02:18 PM | 6831 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

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   6301. jmurph Posted: July 29, 2019 at 10:37 AM (#5865937)
Lowe and Windhorst on "tense" NBA Owners Meeting on FA

I thought this was interesting. The clear takeaway from the league seems to be "ladies and gentlemen, seriously, you don't want to change anything."
   6302. NJ in NY (Now with two kids!) Posted: July 29, 2019 at 10:54 AM (#5865945)
But the writers don't get bent out of shape on the player's behalf when they're traded.

This. I totally get why it's frustrating from a fan perspective when Great Player X demands to leave your team. I just don't think it's "fair" for us to discuss how this impacts the fan/player relationship and the extent to which there is a duty owed to the business of the NBA without also addressing instances of teams making certain moves. Part of my shift away from baseball and back to basketball was the Yankees' handling of the Cano negotiations because he was by far my favorite player at the time and I wanted him to stay at all costs.
   6303. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 29, 2019 at 02:34 PM (#5866081)
So, I spend a lot of time in rabbit holes with obscure players and whatnot and I'm in another one, albeit with a trio of less obscure guys that all can shoot a bit and all changed teams this offseason.

YEAR  MPG  ORPM  DRPM   RPM YEAR  MPG  ORPM  DRPM   RPM YEAR  MPG  ORPM  DRPM   RPM  
1819 16.1 
-0.07  0.19  0.12 1819 20.4 -0.61  1.83  1.22 1819 25.2  0.30 -1.58 -1.28  
1718 27.2  1.17 
-2.07 -0.50 1718 20.0  0.09  0.35  0.44 1718 29.6  0.97 -0.64 -0.33  
1617 26.1  0.96 
-0.51  0.45 1617 17.7 -0.02 -0.36 -0.38 1617 20.7 -1.25 -0.62 -1.87 
C
/F 7-1 242age 26USG=21 F/C 6-11 240age 28USG=15PF 6-10 225age 25USG=21 

They are, in order, Frank Kaminsky (signed a 2/9.8m deal with PHO that many seem to regard as an overpay), Mike Muscala (got a minimum deal with OKC), and Dario Saric (dealt by MIN in part to avoid signing him to a big money extension in the near future).

While I think RPM overrates Muscala (who has a pretty low usage rate and might be closer to an average defender than last season's blip implies) and probably underrates Saric (who I regard as having the highest ceiling of the bunch + plays/demands way less time at the center spot than do the other two), it's hard for me to conclude that he's materially better - if better at all - than either of those other two guys via this quick, quick pass and that seems out of alignment with how they are regarded by the rest of the NBA world, including stat-dork twitter.
   6304. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: July 29, 2019 at 04:25 PM (#5866107)
I am just amazed that we have advanced stats from the year 1617!
   6305. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 29, 2019 at 05:22 PM (#5866135)
But no game logs!
   6306. Fourth True Outcome Posted: July 29, 2019 at 06:21 PM (#5866164)
You hope there are some decently-preserved tapestries of Mikan-sized dudes dominating their 17th C. competition.
   6307. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: July 29, 2019 at 07:40 PM (#5866176)
You hope there are some decently-preserved tapestries of Mikan-sized dudes dominating their 17th C. competition.

Look, we've all been to the Cloisters.
   6308. jmurph Posted: July 30, 2019 at 10:41 AM (#5866286)
Ben Taylor @ElGee35
Open 3-pt shots last 2 seasons. NBA avg. is 38%. LAL & LAC are loaded:

1 Curry 49.1%
2 Hield 48.3%
3 McDermott 48.1%
4 Klay 48.1%
5 Reddick 47.2%

10 Daniels 46%
12 George 46%
17 Green 45%
18 Kawhi 45%
19 Shamet 45%
27 Cook 44%
38 Beverly 43%
61 Bradley 42%
67 KCP 41%
98 LBJ 40%
   6309. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: July 30, 2019 at 01:43 PM (#5866427)
6308:

As I noted, Vogel made a comment about keeping it simple: pretty much run James and Davis out there in high PnR or something similar and have a bunch of cheap guys who can spread the floor around them. I made a comment late in the season that I thought the "playmakers" thing and the leak stuff were mostly Magic, and since taking over, Pelinka, whatever one's opinion of him, has said almost nothing and signed a bunch of veteran guys who can hit open 3s. It has also been pretty much confirmed that the Zubac/Muscala deal was Pelinka, in an attempt to add a floor-spacing big on an expiring deal for a playoff run that never happened, which is what I thought at the time.

So, Pelinka has a basic plan and knows what he is trying to do, and the Lakers will be dangerous. Problems are:

1. James is 35, not 30.
2. Kuzma is just OK, nothing more.
3. They need Cousins to do well and stay on the floor with this roster, and that very well may not happen.
4. The only guard they have who can be a traditional playmaker when James sits is Rondo, who had some abysmal metrics last year.
5. They have a bunch of guys who can hit an open 3 but can't do much else.

So we'll see. I believe in James and Davis; they are an extremely gifted pair of guys to have as the fulcrum of your team. As noted by many, there are about 10 teams that could conceivably be in the Finals, and that will be a fun and interesting change for most fans.

On a semi-related note, Ryan West and the Lakers parted ways yesterday.
   6310. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 30, 2019 at 02:03 PM (#5866450)
I think that's about right, rr. I believe that people are sleeping on how good Cousins still is, but keeping him healthy and having him fit in with what James and Davis can do could be real challenges.
   6311. jmurph Posted: July 30, 2019 at 02:04 PM (#5866452)
Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn
Portland Trail Blazers guard CJ McCollum has agreed to a three-year, $100 million contract extension --- extending his current deal to five years and $157 million, his agent, Sam Goldfeder of Excel Sports, tells ESPN.
   6312. tshipman Posted: July 30, 2019 at 11:18 PM (#5866699)
That CJ extension really seems like a bad deal.
   6313. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: July 30, 2019 at 11:32 PM (#5866705)
Pelinka, whatever one's opinion of him, has said almost nothing and signed a bunch of veteran guys who can hit open 3s.
also: rajon rondo and javale mcgee.

That CJ extension really seems like a bad deal.
tobias harris will make 25MM more that mccollum over the next 5 years.

####### that's a terrible ####### contract.
   6314. jmurph Posted: July 31, 2019 at 09:46 AM (#5866757)
That CJ extension really seems like a bad deal.

I like McCollum, but I don't understand why this was necessary? They already had him for two more years.
   6315. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 31, 2019 at 12:18 PM (#5866930)
same
   6316. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 31, 2019 at 12:31 PM (#5866961)
Brothers being on the same team in the NBA has become a bit of a thing. To that end (per shams): CHA signed Cody and Caleb Martin (Cody, picked in round 2, got 3 years; Caleb got a partial guarantee).
   6317. Booey Posted: July 31, 2019 at 09:56 PM (#5867202)
Since there isn't much else going on this time of year, Hoops Hype is doing a countdown of the top 100 players of the 21st century (which begins with the 2000-2001 season for their purposes).

100. Serge Ibaka
99. Antoine Walker
98. Rudy Gay
97. Andre Drummond
96. Karl-Anthony Towns
95. Rudy Gobert
94. Nene
93. Shane Battier
92. Al Jefferson
91. Jason Richardson
90. Kyle Korver
89. David Lee
88. Sam Cassell
87. Joakim Noah
86. Michael Redd
85. Marcus Camby
84. Brandon Roy
83. Lou Williams
82. Hidayet Turkoglu
81. Rajon Rondo
   6318. JJ1986 Posted: August 01, 2019 at 09:17 AM (#5867248)
I wouldn't feel up to the task of ranking players like that, but David Lee seems very high.
   6319. Booey Posted: August 01, 2019 at 11:35 AM (#5867320)
There's also Hoops Hype's list of the top 10 "Big 3's" in the league right now. Keep in mind that this is for NEXT season only, so injuries play a big role (thus the Nets didn't even make the list and the Dubs are lower than you'd expect).

10. Celtics - Kemba, Tatum, Brown
9. Blazers - Lillard, McCollum, Whiteside
8. Warriors - Curry, gimpy Klay, Dray
7. Nuggets - Jokic, Murray, Millsap
6. Jazz - Gobert, Mitchell, Conley
5. Bucks - Giannis, Middleton, Bledsoe
4. Rockets - Harden, Westbrook, Gordon (don't they still have Capela?)
3. Sixers - Embiid, Simmons, Harris (should Horford be on here instead?)
2. Lakers - LeBron, Davis, Cousins
1. Clippers - Kawhi, PG-13, Lou Williams

Not necessarily in that order, but isn't that also basically a list of the top 10 teams in the league?
   6320. jmurph Posted: August 01, 2019 at 11:45 AM (#5867324)
What I take from that list is that very few teams have 3 very good players.
   6321. JJ1986 Posted: August 01, 2019 at 11:50 AM (#5867327)
If DeMarcus Cousins and Hassan Whiteside (and even Lou Will) are so high on that list, then it's really a list of Big-2s.
   6322. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: August 01, 2019 at 12:03 PM (#5867333)
10. Celtics - Kemba, Tatum, Brown
9. Blazers - Lillard, McCollum, Whiteside
8. Warriors - Curry, gimpy Klay, Dray
7. Nuggets - Jokic, Murray, Millsap
6. Jazz - Gobert, Mitchell, Conley
5. Bucks - Giannis, Middleton, Bledsoe
4. Rockets - Harden, Westbrook, Gordon (don't they still have Capela?)
3. Sixers - Embiid, Simmons, Harris (should Horford be on here instead?)
2. Lakers - LeBron, Davis, Cousins
1. Clippers - Kawhi, PG-13, Lou Williams


best player:
1 (--) clippers - kawhi
2 (+3) bucks - giannis
3 (-1) lakers - davis
4 (+4) warriors - curry
5 (-1) rockets - harden
6 (-3) sixers - embiid
7 (--) nuggets - jokic
8 (+1) blazers - lillard
9 (-3) jazz - gobbert
10 (--) celtics - kemba
   6323. Booey Posted: August 01, 2019 at 12:15 PM (#5867345)
What I take from that list is that very few teams have 3 very good players.


With Klay MIA for most the season, it doesn't look like any team has much shot at having 3 All Stars. The Sixers are probably the closest, but I still wouldn't count on it (well, maaaybe, but only cuz the East only has like 5 AS caliber players). Personally, I'd say that the Sixers have one #1 guy (Embiid), and three #3 guys (Simmons, Harris, Horford).
   6324. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: August 01, 2019 at 12:28 PM (#5867356)
best 2nd player:
1 (+1) lakers - lebron
2 (+1) sixers - simmons
3 (-2) clippers - george
4 (--) rockets - westbrook
5 (+4) blazers - mccollum
6 (+2) warriors - draymond
7 (-2) bucks - middleton
8 (-2) jazz - conley
9 (-2) nuggets - murray
10 (--) celtics - tatum

best 3rd player:
1 (+2) sixers - horford
2 (-1) clippers - louwill
3 (+3) jazz - jingles
4 (+4) warriors - russell
5 (+4) blazers - nurkic
6 (-2) rockets - capela
7 (--) nuggets - millsap
8 (-3) bucks - bledsoe
9 (--) celtics - brown
10 (-8) lakers - kuzma




total points (lower is better):
29 - celtics
23 - nuggets
20 - jazz
18 - blazers
17 - bucks
15 - rockets
14 - lakers
14 - warriors
9 - sixers
6 - clippers

weighted points (higher is better)
15 - celtics
40 - nuggets
46 - jazz
57 - blazers
70 - bucks
73 - rockets
76 - warriors
83 - lakers
91 - sixers
109 - clippers
   6325. Booey Posted: August 01, 2019 at 12:39 PM (#5867362)
best 2nd player:
1 (+1) lakers - lebron
2 (+1) sixers - simmons
3 (-2) clippers - george
4 (--) rockets - westbrook
5 (+4) blazers - mccollum
6 (+2) warriors - draymond
7 (-2) bucks - middleton
8 (-2) jazz - conley
9 (-2) nuggets - murray
10 (--) celtics - tatum

best 3rd player:
1 (+2) sixers - horford
2 (-1) clippers - louwill
3 (+3) jazz - jingles
4 (+4) warriors - russell
5 (+4) blazers - nurkic
6 (-2) rockets - capela
7 (--) nuggets - millsap
8 (-3) bucks - bledsoe
9 (--) celtics - brown
10 (-8) lakers - kuzma


You really don't think Mitchell has any shot at improving? His 2nd half numbers last year were All Star caliber (until the playoffs), and with the additions of Conley and Bogdanovic, he won't need to force so many bad shots anymore. I guess we'll find out this year for sure, but from what I've seen he doesn't SEEM like a selfish player who's just going to chuck regardless.

And I love JIngles, but I'd put him behind not only Mitchell, but also Bogey on Utah's best players list. I'd have had him behind Favors if he were still here, too.
   6326. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: August 01, 2019 at 12:42 PM (#5867364)
teams that i would almost certainly rate higher than BOS (by these measures):
SAC (fox/hield/barnes)
DET (griffin/drummond/rose)
OKC (CP/adams/gallo)
NOP (jrue/zion/ball)
MIN (towns/covington/vonleh)
IND (oladipo/brogdon/turner)
TOR (siakam/lowry/gasol)
MIA (butler/winslow/olynyk)
DAL (doncic/porzingis/powell)
   6327. Booey Posted: August 01, 2019 at 12:50 PM (#5867371)
teams that i would almost certainly rate higher than BOS (by these measures):
SAC (fox/hield/barnes)
DET (griffin/drummond/rose)
OKC (CP/adams/gallo)
NOP (jrue/zion/ball)
MIN (towns/covington/vonleh)
IND (oladipo/brogdon/turner)
TOR (siakam/lowry/gasol)
MIA (butler/winslow/olynyk)
DAL (doncic/porzingis/powell)


Betcha D-Faves has a better season than Ball does.
   6328. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: August 01, 2019 at 12:51 PM (#5867375)
You really don't think Mitchell has any shot at improving? His 2nd half numbers last year were All Star caliber (until the playoffs), and with the additions of Conley and Bogdanovic, he won't need to force so many bad shots anymore. I guess we'll find out this year for sure, but from what I've seen he doesn't SEEM like a selfish player who's just going to chuck regardless.

And I love JIngles, but I'd put him behind not only Mitchell, but also Bogey on Utah's best player list. I'd have had him behind Favors if he were still here, too.
mitchell's biggest strength is volume scoring in lineups that don't have anyone else who can reliably create their own shot. now that the jazz have conley, that's not his role anymore, and i don't see anything else that he does that comes close to providing the kind of value that jingles combination of 3+D+playmaking provides.

and fwiw, i also rate jingles over bogdanovic (jingels is a better defender and playmaker) and favors (favors is okay, but jingels' skillset is much rarer)
   6329. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: August 01, 2019 at 12:57 PM (#5867383)
Betcha D-Faves has a better season than Ball does.

why?
   6330. jmurph Posted: August 01, 2019 at 12:58 PM (#5867385)
teams that i would almost certainly rate higher than BOS (by these measures):
SAC (fox/hield/barnes)
DET (griffin/drummond/rose)
OKC (CP/adams/gallo)
NOP (jrue/zion/ball)
MIN (towns/covington/vonleh)
IND (oladipo/brogdon/turner)
TOR (siakam/lowry/gasol)
MIA (butler/winslow/olynyk)
DAL (doncic/porzingis/powell)

Unprecedented levels of trolling in this post.
   6331. JJ1986 Posted: August 01, 2019 at 01:02 PM (#5867387)
MIN (towns/covington/vonleh)
This is too much.
   6332. Booey Posted: August 01, 2019 at 01:05 PM (#5867391)
why?


Well, last year he put up almost 8 WS (.215 WS/48) in only 23 minutes a game. Now he's playing his natural position, and without being stuck behind Gobert he could get an extra 10 minutes per game. I'm guessing he averages 15-16 ppg and around 9 rebs. Despite being in the league seemingly forever, he just turned 28, so he should still be right in his prime.
   6333. Booey Posted: August 01, 2019 at 01:15 PM (#5867395)
and fwiw, i also rate jingles over bogdanovic (jingels is a better defender and playmaker) and favors (favors is okay, but jingels' skillset is much rarer)


Yeah, Joe's 5.7 apg last year were nice, but I also think it was partially due to necessity since the Jazz were desperate for another playmaker. With Conley, I doubt Ingles will be expected to do as much of that. Honestly, I expect JIngles minutes to drop this season to somewhere in the 25-28 range. There's talk that he might not even start, with Bogey moving into Joe's small forward spot and Royce O'Neal starting as a stretch 4. JIngles would then lead the bench mob in the Crowder role (but actually be able to hit open 3's, unlike Jae). He'd still likely close out games with Gobert, Mitchell, Conley, and Bogey.
   6334. JC in DC Posted: August 01, 2019 at 01:39 PM (#5867406)
Really interesting comments from David Griffin (whose stock has obviously soared recently) about what it was like being GM for the Cavs during LBJ's time there. Answer: Unfun!
   6335. jmurph Posted: August 01, 2019 at 01:59 PM (#5867416)
Definitely interesting, but going on the record like that seems pretty ill-advised.
   6336. JC in DC Posted: August 01, 2019 at 02:24 PM (#5867426)
Definitely interesting, but going on the record like that seems pretty ill-advised.


I don't think so. One thing I like about the NBA these days is the candor with which everyone seems to speak. I'm not sure how saying what many people suspect or have already heard will damage Griffin.
   6337. Fourth True Outcome Posted: August 01, 2019 at 02:44 PM (#5867437)
It also seems like Griffin's remarks attacked the culture around LeBron rather than the man himself (I don't think saying that he's less motivated to win a title for LA than Cleveland is an attack), and is confirming what I think we all would have guessed. If this were still LeBron's league I doubt he'd be quite so honest, but I don't know that there's much risk in admitting how LeBron's cultural gravity warped the Cavs now that both LeBron and Griffin are gone from Cleveland.
   6338. jmurph Posted: August 01, 2019 at 02:48 PM (#5867438)
What's the upside? Let's fast-forward 4 years and the Pelicans land the number one pick with one of the Lakers picks and Bronnie is the number 1 draft prospect. Does LeBron want to stage the family reunion with Griffin?

I mean that's basically the most extreme example I can think of and it's exceedingly unlikely to happen. Conceded. But again, it strikes me that there's no upside, only possible downside to this kind of openness from a GM.
   6339. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: August 01, 2019 at 02:56 PM (#5867446)
What's the upside? Let's fast-forward 4 years and the Pelicans land the number one pick with one of the Lakers picks and Bronnie is the number 1 draft prospect. Does LeBron want to stage the family reunion with Griffin?

I mean that's basically the most extreme example I can think of and it's exceedingly unlikely to happen. Conceded. But again, it strikes me that there's no upside, only possible downside to this kind of openness from a GM.

lebron staged a "family reunion" with dan gilbert after the comic sans thing, so i can't imagine that he'd hold too big a grudge against griffin for saying something that everyone (lebron included) already knows is true.

Unprecedented levels of trolling in this post.
your welcome
   6340. jmurph Posted: August 01, 2019 at 03:03 PM (#5867452)
lebron staged a "family reunion" with dan gilbert after the comic sans thing

Ha, fair point.
   6341. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: August 01, 2019 at 03:48 PM (#5867478)
Griffin: Those remarks will actually make him even more popular in NO. They strike me the same way that Durant's comments about the atmosphere around James being "toxic" did: passive-aggressive and tactical. Davis has not re-upped with the Lakers, so I think that is Griffin's way of throwing a dart at Davis--who obviously does want to play with James--and trying to plant a seed that Davis and James will end up not liking each other and Davis will bail, screwing the Lakers for years to come and making a Griffin even more a hero to James and Lakers Haters worldwide.

James: Like I said even before Davis got here, James has nothing to prove about his GOAT status, but IMO he does have something to prove about his move to the Lakers. The fanboy in me is hoping that he has the "F-U edge". Ha.

GM LeBron: Yes, there are downsides. But it was 100% worth it and then some for Cleveland. As to the Lakers, I have pointed out this on LA sites:

CURRENT SALARY/YEARS GUARANTEED

RUSSELL 29.5/4
RANDLE 21/2
NANCE JR ~10/2
CLARKSON ~12/1
T BRYANT ~8/3
ZUBAC 7/4


Big 3s: I of course have no cred, but Der-K, one of the thread's two useful posters, said that Cousins is actually still a pretty good player, and I agree. Questions are fit and ofc health.

Utah: They have a very good team, even without a Top-10 guy. They can be in the Finals.

   6342. spivey Posted: August 01, 2019 at 04:26 PM (#5867499)
LeBron is still very good, and the Lakers should be very good.

But this year feels to me like the beginning, or at least a glimpse of the post-LeBron, post-Warriors era of basketball. I'm giddy.
   6343. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: August 01, 2019 at 04:31 PM (#5867503)
   6344. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: August 02, 2019 at 12:12 AM (#5867609)
On Utah, they absolutely can win the title, but if they do they will definitely have a top 10 guy. Either because Gobert or Mitchell evolves into one (I continue to think Mitchell becoming D-Wade is on the table), or because Conley breaks out in the new environment.

Not only is there seemingly a high level of parity, but there are a lot of teams with huge ranges on how good they might be. Plus Zion's year 1 and Doncic's year 2. Plus, if the Wizards trade Beal, we will learn how many games a team of replacement level players wins in the NBA. I'm so excited.
   6345. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: August 02, 2019 at 01:53 AM (#5867612)
Wade took a pretty big leap in his 2nd year; Mitchell was a year younger in his second year, but he, well, didn't. Wade cranked it up again in his 3rd year, getting his PER up to 27.6 and winning Finals MVP (yes, I know...refs). So I am not seeing it, although Mitchell is pretty good. Gobert is entering his age-27 season, so I do not see any breakouts for him. Bogdanovich is 30 and Conley will be 32 in October.

The key numbers for Utah are the simplest ones:

PYTH 54-28
DRTG 2
ORTG 15

So, if adding Bogdanovich and Conley gets them into the Top 10 in ORTG, that is a legit contender.
   6346. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: August 02, 2019 at 01:55 AM (#5867613)
LeBron James has some words for David Griffin:


LeBron James
@KingJames
Alright alright. Enough is enough. The throne has been played with to much and I ain’t for horseplay. Ether coming soon!
   6347. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: August 02, 2019 at 02:19 AM (#5867614)
"Ether coming soon" may be my next silly handle.
   6348. spivey Posted: August 02, 2019 at 09:43 AM (#5867634)
Wade was an elite defender for most of his career. At least I think, I remembered thinking that at the time, though I think we have more nuanced views on defense now.

Wade was also elite at stuffing the stat sheet and getting to the line a ton, as early as his 2nd year.

Mitchell is a good player, great second half, yada yada. The first half counts too.
   6349. jmurph Posted: August 02, 2019 at 10:07 AM (#5867640)
I wish it wasn't going to benefit the Lakers, but I am absolutely ready for a "remember me?" season from LeBron this year.
   6350. Booey Posted: August 02, 2019 at 11:32 AM (#5867704)
The key numbers for Utah are the simplest ones:

PYTH 54-28
DRTG 2
ORTG 15

So, if adding Bogdanovich and Conley gets them into the Top 10 in ORTG, that is a legit contender.


All this, plus simply playing to their pythag for once. They've underperformed it every year during the Gobert era, and only once was it by less than 4 games.

2015: 42-40 pythag, actual 38-44
2016: 46-36 pythag, actual 40-42
2017: 52-30 pythag, actual 51-31
2018: 53-29 pythag, actual 48-34
2019: 54-28 pythag, actual 50-32

And their inability to finish close games is probably why. Last year a game that came down to the final possession was literally an automatic loss, as they went 0-8 in games decided by 3 pts or less or in overtime. Then they continued that trend by losing both playoff games that came down to the final minute, too. Hopefully having a couple more scoring options in crunch time - and another playmaker to help find them - will fix that deficiency.
   6351. JC in DC Posted: August 02, 2019 at 11:38 AM (#5867715)
I wish it wasn't going to benefit the Lakers, but I am absolutely ready for a "remember me?" season from LeBron this year.


Cronus usually wins this one. But, he likes the mortal's pluck.
   6352. sardonic Posted: August 02, 2019 at 12:06 PM (#5867735)
I'm interested in seeing if the Warriors can fulfill their dream of becoming the next Spurs -- a top tier franchise player in Steph, strong coaching, continuity of leadership, smart long term management. At least that's a nice sounding story until they actually do it and stay competitive for the next few years and bring in another title in Steph's later years.
   6353. aberg Posted: August 02, 2019 at 01:00 PM (#5867761)
All this, plus simply playing to their pythag for once. They've underperformed it every year during the Gobert era, and only once was it by less than 4 games.


Wolves were always way under their Pythag when Rubio was there, so he might share some of that responsibility. The hypothesis was always that they played poorly in close games because it was too easy to defend a team with a non-shooting initiator in the half court in late game situations.
   6354. Booey Posted: August 02, 2019 at 01:18 PM (#5867771)
Wolves were always way under their Pythag when Rubio was there, so he might share some of that responsibility. The hypothesis was always that they played poorly in close games because it was too easy to defend a team with a non-shooting initiator in the half court in late game situations.


Makes sense. Defenses know that Rubio, Favors, and Gobert can't shoot. The bigs also aren't that great at the line, so the Jazz can't try posting them up on a final position either cuz they'll just be fouled. Ingles can shoot, but can't create his own shot. That leaves Mitchell to force up tough, heavily contested shots at the end of close games.

TBF to Rubio, he wasn't even there for the first 3 of those seasons, but in two of them Utah's PG situation was even worse; it consisted of a rotating dumpster fire of Trey Burke, Shelvin Mack, Raul Neto, and a way too young Dante Exum. In the one year where they almost matched their pythag (2017), they had an All Star season from Gortex Haberdasher, plus a PG who could actually shoot (Hill). Coincidence? Maybe not.
   6355. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: August 02, 2019 at 01:31 PM (#5867781)
TBF to Rubio, he wasn't even there for the first 3 of those seasons, but in two of them Utah's PG situation was even worse; it consisted of a rotating dumpster fire of Trey Burke, Shelvin Mack, Raul Neto, and a way too young Dante Exum. In the one year where they almost matched their pythag (2017), they had an All Star season from Gortex Haberdasher, plus a PG who could actually shoot (Hill). Coincidence? Maybe not.
Trey Burke - current sixer
Shelvin Mack - former sixer
Raul Neto - current sixer
Dante Exum - coached by brett brown in australia.
   6356. Booey Posted: August 02, 2019 at 01:49 PM (#5867792)
#6355 - Burke and Neto will be fine for the Sixers as 2nd and 3rd string PG's (I actually wanted the Jazz to resign Neto on a minimum contract). They're just not and never will be starting caliber PG's.
   6357. spivey Posted: August 02, 2019 at 02:32 PM (#5867807)
#6355 - Burke and Neto will be fine for the Sixers as 2nd and 3rd string PG's (I actually wanted the Jazz to resign Neto on a minimum contract). They're just not and never will be starting caliber PG's.


Imma need Moses or Der K to come in here and explain you something about Burke's floor.
   6358. jmurph Posted: August 02, 2019 at 02:38 PM (#5867809)
Jorge Sedano @SedanoESPN
Pelicans GM David Griffin will join @ramonashelburne, @mcten & Me at 3pm ET/Noon PT on #TheJump on @espn
He’ll be on the show to set the record straight on the SI article published yesterday.

Ha, looks like we're about to get the full speed walk back on those LeBron comments that came out yesterday.
   6359. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: August 02, 2019 at 02:40 PM (#5867811)
When the floor is that high, it's more of a ceiling than a floor.
   6360. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: August 02, 2019 at 02:46 PM (#5867812)
I don't think the Griffin comments were that bad, and like others have said they weren't exactly surprising. I think ESPN, etc did a good job hyping those comments. Reading the SI piece, it does seem like he enjoyed his Suns tenure more, which is really the point I guess. Of course, these days and age everything is its own news cycle so every part of this was completely inevitable from the moment he agreed to do the interview.

Outside of him maybe acting like those Suns years were basically nirvana, I think the weirdest thing in the interview to me was the whole adoption storyline being so prevalent. Either the writer did a poor job by stretching that into a bigger deal than it was, or he's kind of an ####### (on some level) for not letting his wife adopt a child.
   6361. jmurph Posted: August 02, 2019 at 02:46 PM (#5867813)
Seems less than ideal:
Orlando Pinstriped Post @OPPMagicBlog
Nearly 40 percent of the Orlando Magic’s salary cap space for the upcoming season has been used on the center position...
   6362. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: August 02, 2019 at 02:50 PM (#5867814)
Seems less than ideal:
fun fact:
ORL can run out an MCW/fultz/aminu/gordon/isaac lineup that doesn't even include those centers.
   6363. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: August 02, 2019 at 02:55 PM (#5867816)
For the record, though I'm quite fond of Jaylen Brown, I'm reasonably confident Boston's best three players will in fact be Walker, Gobslap Halifax, and Tatum.
   6364. jmurph Posted: August 02, 2019 at 03:15 PM (#5867820)
Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn
Sources: Christmas Day games set for 2019-2020 NBA season include —
Clippers-Lakers at Staples Center
New Orleans at Denver
Boston at Toronto

Love the "at Staples Center" clarification.

Surely Boston-Toronto is the early game before anyone is actually watching, aka the Knicks memorial slot.

EDIT: Also Bucks-Sixers and Rockets-Warriors, apparently.
   6365. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: August 02, 2019 at 04:01 PM (#5867829)
Kuzma on James vis-a-vis the Griffin stuff and the old Durant quotes and other stuff:

“That dude is ready. He’s ready. I think this year, this offseason, you’ve seen people slandering his name, saying this, saying that. He’s been super motivated this offseason, working. Between shooting movies, he’s in the gym early, at night, whatever. Just being locked in. That’s the biggest thing he talks about, being ready for it all.”


Although the LA v. LA narratives will get tiresome for fans outside of LA, a pissed-off LeBron James, the Jerry West angle, Leonard's and George's maneuvering in FA...I would file all of this under "good for the league," especially since Utah, Denver, Houston, Golden State and Portland all will be in the Western mix as well. And you also have the Lakers/Pelicans angle, and Leonard back in the West more present against San Antonio. Good times.
   6366. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: August 02, 2019 at 04:10 PM (#5867831)
Utah: Rubio and Favors being gone may have a negative effect on the team D numbers, but I think they are well-positioned to be Top 10 in both ORTG and DRTG, which generally=serious contention.

Griffin/James: I am sure that James can be difficult to deal with--I think most geniuses are, probably. I remember back in the early 90s, BJ Armstrong said he read stuff about Mozart and Einstein, thinking it might help him understand more about dealing with Jordan. And yes, Cleveland had/has some bad contracts (the Lakers worst contracts are probably Bradley and Rondo for two years) But...shitt. The 2016 Cavs are the only Cleveland team to hang a banner since Lyndon Johnson was President of the United States, and LeBron James is more responsible for that than anybody, and the guy built what seems to be an awesome school for at-risk kids in Akron. So while Griffin's comments are not that big of a deal, I think he was unwise to make them. YMMV.
   6367. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: August 02, 2019 at 04:17 PM (#5867836)
Good calls by the league on the Christmas games.
   6368. Booey Posted: August 02, 2019 at 04:28 PM (#5867839)
Utah: Rubio and Favors being gone may have a negative effect on the team D numbers


I think Conley is at least a match for Rubio defensively (reputation-wise, anyway. I'm too lazy to look up the actual numbers). Losing Favors definitely hurts, but hopefully Ed Davis can mitigate the damage a bit when Gobert is sitting.

Edit: A little disappointed the Jazz didn't crack the Christmas schedule, after doing so last year for the first time since their Finals seasons. Hopefully it won't be another 20 years before it happens again.
   6369. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: August 02, 2019 at 04:35 PM (#5867842)
Conley has not had a positive DBPM since 2013, and Rubio has generally been above 0.0 on that metric. Conley was -1.3 last year and Rubio was 0.6. But Conley's OBPM last year was 4.8, and Rubio has never approached that (career high of 1.8 and was at -0.6 last year, making his BPM exactly 0).

Conley is at .375 from the arc career, compared to Rubio at .322, which is a pretty big deal.
   6370. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: August 02, 2019 at 06:30 PM (#5867867)
I'm really excited to see Conley in Utah. In general when a dude has only been with one team, then goes to another team and has a new environment and role to some extent, there seems to be a lot of variance in the results. Sometimes you get Harden in OKC or Garnett in BOS, sometimes you get Dwight in LAL or Love in CLE, with lots of other interesting outcomes as well (Durant in GS, LeBron in Miami, George in OKC, Horford in BOS).

Conley, obviously, is just one of several in this situation now: Davis and Kemba are two more it'll be fascinating to watch in their new environment.
   6371. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: August 02, 2019 at 09:00 PM (#5867898)
MIN should sign melo.
   6372. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: August 02, 2019 at 09:01 PM (#5867900)
and so should SAS.
   6373. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: August 02, 2019 at 09:02 PM (#5867901)
also, just for shits and giggles, LAC.
   6374. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: August 03, 2019 at 12:35 AM (#5867937)
Wizards hire Dean Oliver as an assistant coach, which is super interesting. If there was ever a team to experiment with, it's this year's Wizards. Oliver is only 50, which shocked me.
   6375. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: August 03, 2019 at 07:22 AM (#5867949)
The Sixers should sign Melo. They desperately need somebody who isn't afraid to take a shot.
   6376. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: August 03, 2019 at 07:52 AM (#5867950)
Andrew Wiggins surrounded by four rebounders is going to be the next great offensive innovation!
   6377. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: August 03, 2019 at 11:13 AM (#5867960)
Woj: “With free agency looming next summer, three-time All-Star Draymond Green has agreed to a four-year, $100M maximum contract extension with Golden State, agent Rich Paul of Klutch Sports tells ESPN.“
   6378. sardonic Posted: August 03, 2019 at 11:27 AM (#5867962)
Those don't seem like max numbers to me, not sure what I'm missing. Green appears to be a 7 year vet, where the max should start at $33M. The numbers are consistent with a max for a 6 year vet, but Green has definitely played in 7 seasons.

Regardless, $25M per seems like a decent deal. The Warriors should be in the playoff mix the next few years, and if they can get some outsized development out of their young players (including DLo) or a couple career years, could still contend during Steph's late prime.
   6379. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: August 03, 2019 at 12:14 PM (#5867971)
I had the same question, so I poked around Larry Coon's CBA analysis. Salary in the first year of an extension for a veteran is normally capped at 120% of previous year salary, so this is that, plus the modest max raises.

I assume this is to avoid salary cap manipulation (otherwise you could sign someone to a small 1 year deal and then extend them to a big balloon payment).
   6380. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: August 03, 2019 at 12:19 PM (#5867974)
The Sixers should sign Melo. They desperately need somebody who isn't afraid to take a shot.
i've argued in favor of the sixers acquiring melo for the last 3 years.

   6381. aberg Posted: August 03, 2019 at 12:23 PM (#5867975)
Green took the pre-FA extension max. If he waited until he was a FA next year, GS could've paid him something like 5/204 and other teams could've offered 4/151. GS is really "good" at getting players to take below market deals.
   6382. sardonic Posted: August 03, 2019 at 03:02 PM (#5868013)
Thinking about the deal some more, I like it. I'm ambivalent about Draymond -- he brings a ton on defense when in shape, which hasn't always been the case in the regular season, and as Pelton points out consistently raises his game in the playoffs. I don't know if he's a full max player, but at about 3/4 of a max and less than a quarter of the cap, he's paid like a 4th banana (less than DLo!).

He will be 34 by the end of this deal, which might be rough since he doesn't have a lot of athleticism to lose. Then again, by 2024-25, who knows what the cap will be like and that might be rotation player money at that point.
   6383. sardonic Posted: August 03, 2019 at 03:05 PM (#5868014)
I'm interested in seeing if the Warriors can fulfill their dream of becoming the next Spurs


I just realized that I made an analogy in which D'Angelo Russell would be Kawhi Leonard. Yikes.
   6384. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: August 03, 2019 at 04:46 PM (#5868031)
opening night as per Shams is NO/TOR and LAL/LAC
   6385. jmurph Posted: August 05, 2019 at 09:51 AM (#5868321)
NO/TOR

Is this (and the Christmas game) the league launching a long term play to keep Zion happy in New Orleans? It's a tiny market, likely non-playoff team getting two of the league's biggest games.
   6386. spivey Posted: August 05, 2019 at 10:22 AM (#5868331)
I think people really want to see Zion. I'm getting a 12 game flex pass and almost certainly will be getting a ticket to that game. It should be a relatively even matchup as well, as opposed to having them play one of the top couple teams in the NBA.
   6387. Booey Posted: August 05, 2019 at 11:11 AM (#5868356)
NO/TOR

Is this (and the Christmas game) the league launching a long term play to keep Zion happy in New Orleans? It's a tiny market, likely non-playoff team getting two of the league's biggest games.


I think people really want to see Zion.


It's all about Derrick Favors.
   6388. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: August 05, 2019 at 12:40 PM (#5868419)
Yeah, I agree with 6386. I don't think the league cares about whether Williamson likes it in NO--but for many obvious reasons, he is a clicks and eyeballs guy. Like I said, I think his having one of those Kobe/LeBron type "one-name is enough" names helps a little, too. He is already just "Zion" before he has played a game.
   6389. Oriole Tragic didn't have the teams Lebron had Posted: August 05, 2019 at 05:14 PM (#5868524)
@6386-8: [NO/TOR] should be a relatively even matchup as well, as opposed to having them play one of the top couple teams in the NBA.


Interesting that NO is already as good as Kawhiless TOR, who should still be, what, a Top 6ish EC team?

The how-good-is-NO discussion seems to follow two (heavily paraphrased) perspectives:

NO is Loaded
Zion is the best rookie since AD and maybe better
Jrue is crazy underrated
Ingram and Ball will be great away from Lakers
Redick and Favors are High-Quality Veteran Presence

NO Sucks
Zion a rookie and rookies always suck
Jrue is just OK
Ingram and Ball are total busts
Redick is cooked
Favors can't hit threeeez

I personally am hoping for something more like the former.





   6390. Booey Posted: August 05, 2019 at 05:29 PM (#5868530)
My personal guess is that NOP finishes around 38-44. I don't think they challenge for a playoff spot this coming season, but they could sneak in as early as 2021*.


* Fearless (and way too early) prediction - The Spurs get the 8th seed this year to extend their playoff streak to 23 straight seasons, and then the streak ends in 2021 as NOP or DAL supplants them (not sold on the Kings yet).
   6391. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: August 05, 2019 at 05:47 PM (#5868537)
VC back to ATL, Woj says next year probably his last.
   6392. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: August 05, 2019 at 06:51 PM (#5868552)
Zion is the best rookie since AD and maybe better
-- 25% chance
-- he's going to be a borderline all-star from day 1.

Jrue is crazy underrated
-- 10% chance
-- he's so underrated that he's almost overrated
-- he's still really good, though.

Ingram and Ball will be great away from Lakers
-- 3% chance
-- i kinda think both of them just are what they are.

Redick and Favors are High-Quality Veteran Presence
-- 10% chance.
-- redick is cooked
-- favors plays the same position as both of NOP's top 10 picks.



i think NOP winds up around 30-35 wins.

they have too many moving parts, and i think they'll need to make another move or two before they figure out how to make it all gel.
   6393. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: August 05, 2019 at 07:07 PM (#5868555)
On Saturday, USA Basketball released a statement that contained one of the bleakest lines in sporting history: After Landry Shamet stepped down from the select team, Team USA named Torrey Craig—a 28-year-old third-year player with 593 career points—in his stead.
Who’s left on the roster: Kemba Walker, Donovan Mitchell, Kyle Lowry, Marcus Smart, De’Aaron Fox

Who’s left on the roster: Khris Middleton, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Harrison Barnes, Thaddeus Young, Kyle Kuzma

Who’s left on the roster: Mason Plumlee, Bam Adebayo, Brook Lopez, Myles Turner, P.J. Tucker
Team USA is weaker than it’s been in years, but it’s still strong enough to win the World Cup. If things click, the slew of summer dropouts will become a footnote in the long arc of American dominance of the sport
   6394. The Mighty Quintana Posted: August 05, 2019 at 07:39 PM (#5868568)
That team still looks pretty good to me....sum greater than the parts and all that.

Hopefully never be as bleak as 2002. Hard to forget Paul Pierce standing up from the bench and yelling at Andre Miller to stop f'in dribbling so much!
   6395. tshipman Posted: August 05, 2019 at 11:27 PM (#5868647)
Zion is the best rookie since AD and maybe better


Zion is going to be really, really good. However, NBA defense is just too hard for rookies to be successful at now from day one.

The aforementioned Anthony Davis was a negative +/- player in his rookie year, a negative on both offense and defense. He averaged an efficient 17/10 with 2 blocks per 36 and was still a negative player.

Anyone who tells you that Rookie X is going to jump in and be a positive contributor year one is trying to sell you something.
   6396. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: August 06, 2019 at 07:59 AM (#5868660)
VC back to ATL, Woj says next year probably his last.
This makes me happy. If he steps foot on the court this season he'll have outlasted Nowitzki as the last survivor from the 1998 draft. He's 5th all-time in games played, and needs 42 appearances to pass Dirk for #3. If he somehow manages 79 appearances he'll tie Kareem for #2.

I had a brief conversation with Carter and his mom in a grocery store in Chapel Hill right before his freshman year at UNC. Vince was very likeable and his mom was awesome, so he's been my favorite player ever since.
   6397. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: August 06, 2019 at 08:22 AM (#5868661)
NO Sucks
Zion a rookie and rookies always suck
Jrue is just OK
Ingram and Ball are total busts
Redick is cooked
Favors can't hit threeeez


I personally am almost on board with all of this. Jrue isn't just OK; he's not great, but he's good. Ball is a total bust, but Ingram is a serviceable NBA rotation guy. Favors is a good player, though I can't see how you can play him and Ingram together for long stretches. And they still have a lousy coach.

Overall I'd bet the under on 38 wins for them. I think it'll be more like 32. Actually I think New Orleans under 39.5 (where they currently are on the board) is one of the best bets in the league.
   6398. spivey Posted: August 06, 2019 at 08:51 AM (#5868664)
That US team looks really good to me. A bit weak in the big spots, but Khris/Tatum/Brown is a good wing rotation, the guards are excellent, and the bigs are pretty good defenders that space the floor. A lot less star power than most years, but one of the more balanced teams in a while. And having enough shooting is always a concern with team USA, and I think they should with that team.
   6399. Booey Posted: August 06, 2019 at 11:15 AM (#5868715)
If he steps foot on the court this season he'll have outlasted Nowitzki as the last survivor from the 1998 draft.


And more importantly, he's the last NBA player older than I am. Once he's gone, I'll have to begrudgingly admit that my own NBA dreams probably aren't going to happen.
   6400. Booey Posted: August 06, 2019 at 11:15 AM (#5868716)
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