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Tuesday, April 16, 2019

OT - NBA thread (Playoffs through off-season)

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, and this one only cares about the NBA thread and the Cubs so I have no idea what the rest of the website cares about.

Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: April 16, 2019 at 02:18 PM | 6831 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

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   6701. Booey Posted: September 13, 2019 at 02:20 PM (#5878965)
flip
   6702. Booey Posted: September 13, 2019 at 02:23 PM (#5878968)
Penultimate Hoopshype 21st century ranking...

20. Tony Parker
19. Carmelo Anthony
18. Jason Kidd
17. Pau Gasol
16. Kawhi Leonard
15. Paul Pierce
14. Dwight Howard
13. Russell Westbrook
12. Steve Nash
11. James Harden
   6703. spivey Posted: September 13, 2019 at 02:28 PM (#5878970)
I was going to say Steve Nash is ridiculously overrated, but then Tony Parker and Carmelo are right there too, and...
   6704. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: September 13, 2019 at 03:40 PM (#5878990)
Okay, baited I guess -- I get that current broken down ####### Dwight is not how he's always been, but having him over Pau, Pierce, Leonard, and Kidd seems batshit insane.

Not sure I'd have Nash and definitely wouldn't have Westbrook ahead of that quartet, but I can see how someone could beg to differ. But Dwight? Really?
   6705. Booey Posted: September 13, 2019 at 04:12 PM (#5878996)
Okay, baited I guess -- I get that current broken down ####### Dwight is not how he's always been, but having him over Pau, Pierce, Leonard, and Kidd seems batshit insane.


He's higher than I would've placed him too, but remember that peak Dwight was on the All NBA 1st team five years in a row from 2008-2012, and finished 5th, 4th, 4th, 2nd, and 7th in MVP voting in those years. That's better than Pau or Pierce ever were. Neither of them ever made the 1st team, let alone 5 times. Pierce's highest MVP finish was 7th, and Pau somehow never got even a single down-ballot MVP vote in his entire career. Kawhi meanwhile has only been an All Star 3 times so far, and Kidd loses the first 6 years of his career with this exercise since they're starting with the 2000-2001 season, so that costs him his ROY, 3 AS appearances, and 2 assist titles.
   6706. JJ1986 Posted: September 14, 2019 at 10:22 AM (#5879094)
I think I'd have a hard time ranking the top of the decade. LeBron-Duncan-Garnett are probably 1-2-3. Curry 4th but then you have to compare Shaq who had only a few dominant seasons to guys like Kobe, Wade and Durant who were never quite as good. I'm also missing someone. Dirk is in there, but that's only 9 guys.
   6707. JJ1986 Posted: September 14, 2019 at 11:13 AM (#5879101)
Obviously I meant two decades.
   6708. Booey Posted: September 14, 2019 at 11:51 AM (#5879103)
#6706 - CP3 is the 10th guy. His numbers are inner circle if you don't worry about...you know, playoff success and all that.
   6709. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: September 14, 2019 at 12:34 PM (#5879107)
I think I'd have a hard time ranking the top of the decade. LeBron-Duncan-Garnett are probably 1-2-3. Curry 4th but then you have to compare Shaq who had only a few dominant seasons to guys like Kobe, Wade and Durant who were never quite as good. I'm also missing someone. Dirk is in there, but that's only 9 guys.
my guess at the order:

lebron
kobe
duncan
garnett
shaq
curry
dirk
paul
wade
durant
   6710. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: September 14, 2019 at 03:59 PM (#5879131)
link:
As the business of basketball continues to boom around the world, and as international talent gets better and better, future U.S. teams—the ones beyond 2020, which almost certainly won’t still have LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, and James Harden in the pool—won’t always be able to rely on having the best player on the court. When those days come—as they did against France on Wednesday and Serbia on Thursday—Team USA will need players who fit together better than this year’s model. The whole process has to be more intentional than just, “Who’s still willing to say yes?


   6711. Booey Posted: September 14, 2019 at 04:27 PM (#5879140)
#6709 - Since basketball lists are always subjective as much as stat based (i.e. count da ringzzz rules), I have a hard time seeing CP3 beat out the likes of Wade or KD. Never getting to the Finals when everyone else has a title - and all but KG and Dirk have multiple titles - will be a major blow to his ranking, I think.

My guesses:

1. LeBron
2. Duncan
3. Kobe
4. Dirk
5. Garnett (always underrated)
6. Durant
7. Curry (hard to argue for Steph over KD, IMO)
8. Wade
9. Shaq (loses half his peak with their 2001 cutoff)
10. Paul
   6712. tshipman Posted: September 14, 2019 at 07:49 PM (#5879177)
7. Curry (hard to argue for Steph over KD, IMO)


MVPs: 2 vs 1
Titles won without the other present: 1 vs 0

I do think Durant probably has the edge, but it's pretty close and I think Steph has the higher peak. I also think Durant benefited more from Curry than vice versa.
   6713. Booey Posted: September 14, 2019 at 10:16 PM (#5879246)
Re: KD vs Steph -

Scoring titles: 4-1
Finals MVP's: 2-0
All Star seasons: 10-6

It's close, but mainly I think it'll come down to Durant's longer career thus far.
   6714. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: September 14, 2019 at 10:47 PM (#5879283)
#6709 - Since basketball lists are always subjective as much as stat based (i.e. count da ringzzz rules), I have a hard time seeing CP3 beat out the likes of Wade or KD. Never getting to the Finals when everyone else has a title - and all but KG and Dirk have multiple titles - will be a major blow to his ranking, I think.

dwyane wade is vince carter with a rolodex.
durant's "titles" (and his last 3 years in general) don't count for #### on this kind of list.

4. Dirk
5. Garnett (always underrated)

dirk's influence as a stretch 4/5 and foreign-born superstar should not be understated, but as a player, garnett blows him away.
   6715. Booey Posted: September 15, 2019 at 01:39 AM (#5879301)
dirk's influence as a stretch 4/5 and foreign-born superstar should not be understated, but as a player, garnett blows him away.


Agreed, but I wasn't doing my own rankings; I was trying to guess what they were going to do. I think KG is better than Kobe too, but I'd be shocked and amazed if their list agrees with that. Garnett also loses the first 5 years of his career, including 3 AS appearances. Dirk started a few years later and doesn't really lose anything of value (just 2 seasons of pre-stardom).

durant's "titles" (and his last 3 years in general) don't count for #### on this kind of list.


On your personal list maybe, but I very much doubt they're going to see it that way. And I actually don't even necessarily disagree with you. I certainly don't think players add anything to their legacy by stacking the deck and winning cheap titles with nearly unbeatable super teams. I DO think Durant helped his case a bit by winning Finals MVP both times, though, so no one can accuse him of just riding on Steph, Klay, and Dray's coattails. I also think that Curry's legacy takes a (slight) hit by never winning Finals MVP. He's played in the Finals 5 times and wasn't the best player in any of them. When you're splitting hairs between the best of the best, that's...something.
   6716. tshipman Posted: September 15, 2019 at 11:44 AM (#5879328)
On your personal list maybe, but I very much doubt they're going to see it that way. And I actually don't even necessarily disagree with you. I certainly don't think players add anything to their legacy by stacking the deck and winning cheap titles with nearly unbeatable super teams. I DO think Durant helped his case a bit by winning Finals MVP both times, though, so no one can accuse him of just riding on Steph, Klay, and Dray's coattails. I also think that Curry's legacy takes a (slight) hit by never winning Finals MVP. He's played in the Finals 5 times and wasn't the best player in any of them. When you're splitting hairs between the best of the best, that's...something.


Durant is a great player, but he got single coverage in the NBA finals and was able to just walk to the rim.

Opposing teams would rather give up a Durant dunk than an open Curry 3. I don't see how you can ignore how opposing teams gameplan.
   6717. spivey Posted: September 15, 2019 at 04:56 PM (#5879407)
Warriors first championship, LeBron was probably the best player, but Curry was definitely better than Iguodala.

I think I have KD, KG, and Curry all comfortably above Dirk. I love Dirk, I love his career. I just think each of those guys has a peak that's well beyond his. They're all in the discussion for first or second all-time teams. I just don't see Dirk at that level, he was too much of a sieve on defense and as great as he was offensively, he had some holes in his game for the first half of his career. The famous Golden State/Dallas series I think highlighted that well.
   6718. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: September 16, 2019 at 11:26 AM (#5879592)
Kinda rudimentary advanced stats question:
I don't think that there's a clear winner in the debate as to which single number advanced metrics are better than which others but: which do you like best? Do you combine them and, if so, which ones are most colinear with others such that extra caution is warranted?

(This was prompted by looking at guys who had conflicting assessments in a model powered by RPM, PIPM, and RAPM. It's just a dumb toy and in no shape to be shared with anyone anytime soon.)
   6719. JJ1986 Posted: September 16, 2019 at 03:24 PM (#5879716)
I mostly use Cleaning the Glass on/off and lineup data for evaluating current seasons. ESPNs RPM as the next thing although I heavily discount both.
   6720. jmurph Posted: September 16, 2019 at 03:35 PM (#5879721)
Probably a dumb answer, but I look at as many as possible and take them especially serious when there is broad alignment across the various metrics.
   6721. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: September 16, 2019 at 04:00 PM (#5879727)
that's what i do as well, jmurph - and is probably the right way - but i'm interested in building a ubermodel to calculate value relative to contract ... but not interested in being as thorough as i oughta be in doing so. (eyeroll)

---

magic picked up their team option of fultz for '20-21 (12.3m)

   6722. spivey Posted: September 16, 2019 at 04:01 PM (#5879728)
I look at as many as possible and kind of try to combine them. For something like this I even use pretty basic stuff like USG%, TS%, subjective things like how easily can this guy carry an offense or defense, playoff stats.

I probably start with RPM, +/-, and BPM. Partially just because they're pretty easily accessible, and the RPM leaderboards at ESPN are an easy jumping off point for individual season analysis. I probably use it less for career stuff because it's just harder to visualize the data like that.

A lot of the stats now are either pretty black boxy (which is also true of baseball stats, though those have been more vetted), or also just don't go back very far.

Basketball is a very contextual game which makes it fun. I expect that sports will have a lot of wearable sensors in the not so distant future, and I think the NBA is one of the sports that will get the most out of this, along with football. But we'll always have this huge period of the league's history where the arguments are going to have to be somewhat subjective, and that's fun.
   6723. jmurph Posted: September 16, 2019 at 04:18 PM (#5879738)
magic picked up their team option of fultz for '20-21 (12.3m)

This is absolutely stunning to me.
   6724. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: September 16, 2019 at 04:19 PM (#5879740)
which ones are most colinear with others such that extra caution is warranted?
This seems like the most interesting wrinkle to the question, and unfortunately the one I feel least equipped to address: where does an ad hoc "these uberstats agree, so I will weight the conclusion more heavily" process (which is my approach to this kind of statistical spelunking, too) most closely resemble double-counting the same data?
   6725. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: September 16, 2019 at 05:04 PM (#5879761)
exactly. i think i could load a bunch of this stuff into sas and come to some conclusions, but i'm kind of hoping someone else has already done something like + my skills have gotten rusty. specifically, i'm interested how sets of metrics agree or not on specific classes/archetypes of players.

(ultimately, the right thing to do is to ditch an uber-stat and answer specific questions with the best metrics for those questions, but that's not what i wanna do here.)
   6726. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: September 16, 2019 at 05:49 PM (#5879771)
####### it real life Orlando!!!

Well, on the bright side, they surely know a hell of a lot more about Fultz than we do, right?
   6727. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: September 16, 2019 at 06:28 PM (#5879778)
Well, on the bright side, they surely know a hell of a lot more about Fultz than we do, right?
not a chance.

the thing about fultz is that even though his shot is broken af, he's a useful player. his defense is good; his ballhandling is good; his playmaking is good; broken as he is, there's a place for him in the NBA.

the problem is that he's a liar and a quitter, and yada yada yada...
   6728. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: September 16, 2019 at 06:45 PM (#5879781)
exactly. i think i could load a bunch of this stuff into sas and come to some conclusions, but i'm kind of hoping someone else has already done something like + my skills have gotten rusty. specifically, i'm interested how sets of metrics agree or not on specific classes/archetypes of players.

PER
overrates usage; underrates defense

TS%
overrates low usage spot up shooters; underrates shot self-creation

win shares / win shares per 48
overrates rebounding; underrates everything else

BPM
overrates efficiency on low usage; underrates ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

net rating
overrates continuity; underrates good players with poor teammates

net on-off rating
overrates role players; underrates good players on teams with quality depth
   6729. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: September 16, 2019 at 08:17 PM (#5879798)
zach lowe to stay with espn
seth curry now doc rivers' son in law
   6730. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: September 16, 2019 at 09:47 PM (#5879821)
I don't think that there's a clear winner in the debate as to which single number advanced metrics are better than which others but: which do you like best? Do you combine them and, if so, which ones are most colinear with others such that extra caution is warranted?


Good question, and I think stiggles gave a pretty good answer. I look at all of them, and combine, and I also still believe in the eye test. Enes Kanter, whose career PER is 22.6, but who has had bad, and often terrible on-off numbers most of his career, is a great example of the issue. I do think that PER captures truly elite guys pretty well. Michael Jordan lead the league in PER for seven straight years, from 86-87, to 92-93. Last year's top 3 were Antetokounmpo, Harden, and Davis.
   6731. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: September 17, 2019 at 12:04 AM (#5879862)
Since the Magic traded for Fultz at the trade deadline earlier this year, he has been out of the news entirely and presumably working to get back on the court. Fultz didn’t play a single game with Orlando last season and there have been no updates about him aside from a comment from head coach Steve Clifford, who said in an interview at summer league that Fultz was “not ready” for 5-on-5 scenarios yet and there was no timetable for his return.
...
The Magic didn’t even wait until training camp to lock down Fultz for another season (the deadline to pick up the option is in October)
link
   6732. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: September 17, 2019 at 08:32 AM (#5879888)
I liked this article which did an interesting comparison of the different advanced stats:

https://fansided.com/2019/01/08/nylon-calculus-best-advanced-stat/
   6733. jmurph Posted: September 17, 2019 at 09:12 AM (#5879900)
the thing about fultz is that even though his shot is broken af, he's a useful player. his defense is good; his ballhandling is good; his playmaking is good; broken as he is, there's a place for him in the NBA.

I totally disagree with this. We talk about him like we're talking about a guy like Rondo, just an everyday bad shooter, but this is a whole other thing. This guy was double-clutching free throws the last time we saw him. He's practically shooting from his waist, when he's willing to try to shoot at all. A team trying to make the playoffs can't waste actual regular season minutes on someone like that.
   6734. spivey Posted: September 17, 2019 at 09:33 AM (#5879906)
I agree. I am not a cap expert, but I wonder how much of this is a hedge on if he doesn't develop, he's a decent sized expiring contract to trade mid-season.

Given how off the radar Fultz has been the last year or so, I don't see any reason to think he'll be a productive NBA player.
   6735. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: September 17, 2019 at 01:04 PM (#5880007)
I agree. I am not a cap expert, but I wonder how much of this is a hedge on if he doesn't develop, he's a decent sized expiring contract to trade mid-season.


But this is the option for NEXT season! It makes him even harder to trade this year, one would think.

It's just bizarre.
   6736. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: September 17, 2019 at 01:14 PM (#5880016)
It's just bizarre.

They're gearing up for a run at Wiggins!
   6737. spivey Posted: September 17, 2019 at 01:21 PM (#5880020)
But this is the option for NEXT season!

Oh, damn, you're right. I dunno.
   6738. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: September 17, 2019 at 02:30 PM (#5880074)
That article, C&P (6732), was what prompted me to ask the question here. :)

Orlando didn't acquire Fultz to not extend him now - this is part of the evaluation window.

I saw an interesting piece that tried to estimate how good each FIBA WC team would be over an NBA season. Of possible interest to a few fans is that includes player value estimates for everyone in the tourney, including a few dudes (like Guduric and Poirier) who will be joining the NBA this season (both were evaluated as a hair below average - Poirier is a K.Birch type, Guduric a shooting specialist whose d is probably overrated here).
   6739. JJ1986 Posted: September 17, 2019 at 02:34 PM (#5880075)
I think the Magic have almost no chance to have capspace next summer and very little chance to be paying the luxury tax unless they give DJ Augustin $20 million a year. So there's extremely little teambuilding cost.
   6740. jmurph Posted: September 17, 2019 at 02:37 PM (#5880077)
They have no point guards on the roster beyond this season.
   6741. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: September 17, 2019 at 05:07 PM (#5880133)
Here's what the BTF Magic ended up with, with some reasonable assumptions on FA, and having traded away our 2019 first-rounder (top 10 protected):

PG: Jrue Holiday / Augustin
SG: Danny Green / Quinndary Weatherspoon / Cook
SF: Gordon / DeMarre Carroll / Iwundu
PF: Isaac / Carroll
C: Marjanovic / Bamba / Isaac
Wild card: Fultz (not extended)

That seems... better than where they are today.
   6742. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: September 18, 2019 at 01:05 AM (#5880307)
I think the Magic have almost no chance to have capspace next summer and very little chance to be paying the luxury tax unless they give DJ Augustin $20 million a year. So there's extremely little teambuilding cost.
This is it, I think. The Magic have nothing for the future at PG, and they are already locked in for a ton of money. In the next year, they need to turn Bomba and Isaac into good players to join Gordon and Fournir and... maybe Vicevic still? as the core of a contender. The only thing Fultz costs them, really, is money. The more I think about it, the less stupid the move is, but I have a really hard time believing Fultz is going to turn into anything other than a bad story.
   6743. jmurph Posted: September 18, 2019 at 09:02 AM (#5880329)
This is it, I think. The Magic have nothing for the future at PG, and they are already locked in for a ton of money. In the next year, they need to turn Bomba and Isaac into good players to join Gordon and Fournir and... maybe Vicevic still? as the core of a contender. The only thing Fultz costs them, really, is money. The more I think about it, the less stupid the move is, but I have a really hard time believing Fultz is going to turn into anything other than a bad story.

I understand the logic, I just think this is how bad teams stay bad. The rosters of Charlotte and Miami etc. are loaded with guys on bad contracts because all it cost was money or "you have to protect the asset." But meanwhile you've got a bad player taking up a tenth of the cap when you need like 3 additional good starters to make the team better.
   6744. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: September 18, 2019 at 09:16 AM (#5880334)
Picking up the option hurts their chances of winning 48+ games going forward but probably helps their odds of winning 60+ (in the pretty unlikely scenario that Fultz unlocks what's wrong). It's defensible even beyond "protect the asset" thinking, imo, even as it's not a move I probably do.
   6745. jmurph Posted: September 18, 2019 at 09:18 AM (#5880335)
I guess I'd just say that despite the conventional wisdom, I think there's always a cost to giving a bad player (which again, probably understates the Fultz situation) a fairly sizable contract.
   6746. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: September 18, 2019 at 09:33 AM (#5880338)
Absolutely agree, jmurph.
--
Fultz is a weird, tough case - I don't have a good handle on his likely outcomes.
If he doesn't figure out the shot - but we never thought it yips and he wasn't a high lottery pick and were like oh, he can't shoot what can he do? - he's Eric Snow, right? Snow in a world where that's a harder player to play now than in his time but has uses. But I don't know how relevant that is because he does have that history and that label. If the shot doesn't improve, do other skills degrade? How much improvement is realistic?
It's a decent gamble to take if you want to build a contender versus a solid team (and my natural tendency is treat all wins equally but I've been trying to embrace risk in recent years) but one I doubt I take as a GM.
   6747. jmurph Posted: September 18, 2019 at 09:49 AM (#5880342)
If he gets through this Orlando contract without solving whatever it is that's wrong, I think he's just done. If it even takes that long. Until proven otherwise, I don't even see any reason to expect him to play regularly (at all?) this year.
   6748. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: September 18, 2019 at 12:50 PM (#5880401)
I understand the logic, I just think this is how bad teams stay bad. The rosters of Charlotte and Miami etc. are loaded with guys on bad contracts because all it cost was money or "you have to protect the asset."
I would give Miami more credit that that. Gordon, Fournir, and Vucevic are not bad players. They're not GREAT players (though Vucevic did have a terrific season), but they're good and all either entering or in their primes. If they can hit on some of the other young guys in the next year or two, then they have a legit EC contender. If those guys don't work out, then, yeah, they're a 35-45 win team for the next few years, but those risks come with franchise building.

The other option would have been to not extend anyone, start over, and be horrible like the Sixers were, with a decent chance that they'll be rebuilding forever, like the Wolves did or the Suns are doing. I don't blame ownership for not having the stomach to go through that.
   6749. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: September 18, 2019 at 01:37 PM (#5880421)
I'd characterize what Miami has done as more "the future is always now" and overrating their own talent than "you have to protect the asset". YMMV.
   6750. jmurph Posted: September 18, 2019 at 01:51 PM (#5880430)
Gordon, Fournir, and Vucevic are not bad players. They're not GREAT players (though Vucevic did have a terrific season), but they're good and all either entering or in their primes. If they can hit on some of the other young guys in the next year or two, then they have a legit EC contender. If those guys don't work out, then, yeah, they're a 35-45 win team for the next few years, but those risks come with franchise building.

The other option would have been to not extend anyone, start over, and be horrible like the Sixers were, with a decent chance that they'll be rebuilding forever, like the Wolves did or the Suns are doing. I don't blame ownership for not having the stomach to go through that.

I don't really disagree with any of that. But I don't see how Fultz fits into any of it, either.
   6751. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: September 18, 2019 at 01:54 PM (#5880431)
They don't have an actual PG for a contender. DJ is ... fine, I guess? if you wanna be the bottom seed and a first round out in the playoffs, but you can actually dream on Fultz's talent. I mean, you could. (I don't.) And if you can, and you really don't have another option besides full tear-down, then why not? It's a few million out of the pocket of a guy who will literally never miss it, but will most certainly feel the sting of 24-58 for three or four years.
   6752. jmurph Posted: September 18, 2019 at 02:06 PM (#5880437)
Clearly it's the offseason as we're running this into the ground, so I'll just say you guys should absolutely not let me forget I'm wrong if Fultz turns out to be fine. But the Magic attaching a 2nd rounder (or more!) to get off his contract in a year so they can pursue something else is, like, the easiest prediction in the world to make right now.
   6753. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: September 18, 2019 at 02:21 PM (#5880440)
I don't necessarily disagree!
   6754. jmurph Posted: September 18, 2019 at 02:26 PM (#5880445)
I also strongly disagree that the only options for upgrading at point guard are Fultz or a teardown. Decent point guards go at the mid-level or less every single summer. Off the top of my head, Rose, Tyus Jones, Seth Curry, and Temple (depending how you define them) all signed for the mid-level or less this year. None of those guys are my ideas of stars, certainly, but they're serviceable. Also Orlando's roster is very heavy on bigs, so they should probably be looking at trades, anyway.
   6755. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: September 18, 2019 at 04:15 PM (#5880517)
If he doesn't figure out the shot - but we never thought it yips and he wasn't a high lottery pick and were like oh, he can't shoot what can he do? - he's Eric Snow, right? Snow in a world where that's a harder player to play now than in his time but has uses. But I don't know how relevant that is because he does have that history and that label. If the shot doesn't improve, do other skills degrade? How much improvement is realistic?

eric snow isn't an awful comp, but it undersells the shitty MF's ability to penetrate in isolation.

ORL does have a solid/ish option, which is surrounding fultz with fournier/ross/gordon/vucevic. that lineup has enough floor spacing that opponents can't just pack the paint, which would allow fultz enough room to drive to the rim, or to drive and kick to an open shooter.


i could also see a fultz/bamba (or fultz/isaac) pick and roll becoming very hard to defend. when teams sag off of fultz, ORL can add in a stack action (first popularized by the spanish national team) that can shred teams that play soft/passive defense.
   6756. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: September 18, 2019 at 05:39 PM (#5880540)
I initially thought of Snow because he's my go to for a physical point guard who improved dramatically as a shooter to ... not bad. (I mention this every few years here and am doin' it again now: He was a 46% free throw shooter in college and only hit 25% (18-71) over his first two years at MSU. He kept working at it and eventually had a 86% season from the line in over 300 FTA and was solid on long twos, though he was never a three point threat whatsoever. By the end of his pro career, he stopped hitting free throws again. Anyway, his growth impresses the heck out of me.) The more I thought about it, the similarities were stronger than that first flash should've allowed - though their professional narratives have nothing in common.

I do think current Fultz is better at penetrating but he is truly, truly awful outside of three feet - so all you gotta do is plunk a guy down there. Worst case scenario is what - you foul him? Fultz doesn't want that.
If he doesn't grow, he's pretty useless.
   6757. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: September 18, 2019 at 05:50 PM (#5880544)
trade machine: who says no?

HOU: joel embiid, jordan clarkson, larry nancy
CLE: nik batum, clint capela, zhaire smith
PHI: james harden
CHO: tristian thompson
   6758. NJ in NY (Now with two kids!) Posted: September 18, 2019 at 06:29 PM (#5880549)
I...still believe in Fultz.
   6759. NJ in NY (Now with two kids!) Posted: September 18, 2019 at 06:29 PM (#5880550)
Going to be in LA on opening night for work and considering buying a ticket to Clippers-Lakers. These prices though...
   6760. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: September 18, 2019 at 07:55 PM (#5880562)
I...still believe in Fultz.
If Fultz's shooting woes are indeed due to shoulder mobility/nerve issues stemming from a motorcycle accident but he still has natural touch, then he, more than anyone, should really start shooting his free throws underhanded.
   6761. tshipman Posted: September 18, 2019 at 09:45 PM (#5880581)
Clearly it's the offseason as we're running this into the ground, so I'll just say you guys should absolutely not let me forget I'm wrong if Fultz turns out to be fine. But the Magic attaching a 2nd rounder (or more!) to get off his contract in a year so they can pursue something else is, like, the easiest prediction in the world to make right now.


So let's say that happens 9/10 times. I still think it's totally worth doing. A second round pick is not worth that much, in the grand scheme of things, and a 10% chance of getting an above average pg (and maybe a 3% chance of an All-star) is totally worth it.

Your odds of picking up a rotation player in the second round are way lower than the odds of Markelle Fultz being decent.
   6762. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: September 18, 2019 at 10:40 PM (#5880593)
So let's say that happens 9/10 times. I still think it's totally worth doing. A second round pick is not worth that much, in the grand scheme of things, and a 10% chance of getting an above average pg (and maybe a 3% chance of an All-star) is totally worth it.


Well, kind of. If he's an above average PG next year, great (well, good, anyway, for $12M). But if he just takes 2 years to develop into an above average PG in time for the 2021-22 season, he'll then command nearly market value as an RFA.

That's the problem with taking a $12M flyer. Most of the time you're just out $12M and when it hits you still have to pay market value for all but the year in question unless he develops into a player worth more than the max. I guess you could argue Fultz is more likely than most players to develop into a player worth more than the max (still very small, but probably more than, I don't know, Khem Birch).

Whereas, on the other side, if you get a rotation player in the second round (Malcolm Brogdon for instance), they generate SO MUCH excess value over the course of their rookie contract. In a salary cap league, that's super valuable.
   6763. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: September 18, 2019 at 10:55 PM (#5880599)
Rotation player is kind of a low bar too. I think you can somewhat routinely hit singles in that round - the big win is much tougher.
   6764. tshipman Posted: September 18, 2019 at 10:59 PM (#5880600)
You get an all star player in the second round like ... what every 2-3 years or so?

So that's roughly 2%. So if you feel like Fultz has a greater chance of becoming an all star than 2%, you should always extend him.

I think that Fultz's chances are probably between 2% and 10%, so for me, it's an easy positive EV move. It looks dumb most of the time, of course.
   6765. jmurph Posted: September 19, 2019 at 09:47 AM (#5880660)
You get an all star player in the second round like ... what every 2-3 years or so?

So that's roughly 2%. So if you feel like Fultz has a greater chance of becoming an all star than 2%, you should always extend him.

Well this is just comparing him to a 2nd rounder, but they also now have $22 million committed to him over the next two years. Maybe without activating the 20-21 option they could have used his $9.7 million expiring (and a 2nd, or whatever) to get something useful mid-season to help solidify the team. Or attach him to whichever of their many big men they give up on to get something useful. I don't know who, specifically, but it seems like there must be dozens of better uses of the money and roster spot.

Another factor I'm holding against them: they still had more than a month to make this decision. What's the hurry?
   6766. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: September 19, 2019 at 11:08 AM (#5880706)
NBA observations as we wait for the season to start.

The Wizards look BAD. Here's a list of players you can reasonably expect to be rotation quality for them this year: Beal, Bertans, Bryant. If you were generous, you could add Ish Smith, but I think that's pretty kind. Mind you, others will - maybe Troy Brown takes a few steps forward or if I'm wrong about Rui Hachimura (I don't think he's very good) or CJ Miles has a bounce back season or IT has a dead cat bounce or Jemerrio Jones unexpectedly makes the team.
They don't guard anybody. Beal is the only guy with above average usage with any kind of efficiency. I don't like their rebounding. Oh man.
   6767. jmurph Posted: September 19, 2019 at 12:12 PM (#5880753)
Who are the other candidates for worst record? Cleveland, Memphis maybe, the Knicks? People seem to expect Atlanta, Chicago, and Phoenix to improve.
   6768. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: September 19, 2019 at 12:20 PM (#5880757)
How about Charlotte? I guess their average player is slightly higher quality than Cleveland or Washington's; so they're better able to handle the inevitable injury. They'll probably grind out 29 wins or something while being comprehensively unwatchable. A late season Charlotte/NYK game might be worth a hate-watch, just to see how unpleasant 2020 basketball can be.
   6769. jmurph Posted: September 19, 2019 at 12:35 PM (#5880759)
If I thought they would actually attempt to trade off their decent players I'd pick them, but will they actually commit to a rebuild?
   6770. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: September 19, 2019 at 12:37 PM (#5880760)
Washington: As I said a month or so ago, with the top of the league seemingly tight, what happens to Beal could affect the the contenders tier significantly if he is moved to a good team.

Worst record: Memphis maybe, because of the conference. I am also not sold on the idea that Phoenix will get much better. Washington and Cleveland seem to have the worst rosters. I think Atlanta will get better. Not sure about Chicago.

Not that it is big news, but the Lakers got a 1.75M disabled player exception for Cousins.
   6771. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: September 19, 2019 at 12:55 PM (#5880767)
I'm bullish on Memphis, though not as much as 538 apparently is (has them as basically an average team, going 36-46 due mostly to the conference).

Their lowest ranked teams: Cleveland (21 wins), Knicks (24), Charlotte (27), Atlanta (28)
This probably underrates Cleveland, as Sexton will improve. Same for New York with Knox. Charlotte has the least "good" players in the league at this point (is their best player Zeller?) but also less obvious sinkholes. Atlanta's defense on paper is a tire fire, the likely worst in the league (miss you Dedmon).

--
That DPE doesn't prorate, so it could be nice in a few months.
   6772. DCA Posted: September 19, 2019 at 01:13 PM (#5880771)
Memphis doesn't look like a bad team. They have talent though there is a path to a lot of losses: only Morant and JV are really high usage players, and if Morant has growing pains and none of the solid low/moderate usage guys they have can maintain efficiency with more looks they just aren't going to score.

If the Wiz decide to move Beal, the Grizz really ought to be buying. Morant/Beal/Wing/JJJ/JV could be really good in 2020-21. Especially since they should be able to add a max guy at the open wing spot. Did Otto Porter and Beal get along?
   6773. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: September 19, 2019 at 01:19 PM (#5880773)
Okay, you guys have got to watch this. It's hilarious.
   6774. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: September 19, 2019 at 01:44 PM (#5880785)
If you like the link in 6773 (which I'll watch tonight), check out other Jon Bois stuff - he's an oft discussed treasure.
   6775. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: September 19, 2019 at 05:59 PM (#5880896)
news!:
NBA and NBPA agree Nene's bonuses will not count for matching purposes in a trade, though they are "likely". The deal was clearly an attempt to circumnavigate the intent of the rules but was also clearly within the letter of the agreement, to my naive read.
(Nene was a huge trade chip and obviously linked to a possible deal for Iggy but now...?)
   6776. jmurph Posted: September 20, 2019 at 09:04 AM (#5881135)
(Nene was a huge trade chip and obviously linked to a possible deal for Iggy but now...?)

How did Morey and his team get this so wrong? So now it only counts for $2.56 million for trade purposes, but he might actually earn $10 million this year (only needs to appear in 40 games, and they have to win 52 to hit the full $10 million). That looks like a really bad mistake, especially since their owner doesn't exactly seem excited about spending big. Oh also this:
Because he signed a two-year contract, Nene will have a cap charge of $2.56MM rather than the $1.62MM cap hit he would have had if he’d signed a one-year, minimum-salary contract, pushing Houston closer to the tax. On a one-year deal, Nene would’ve had the right to veto trades.
   6777. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: September 20, 2019 at 10:20 AM (#5881154)
Feigen:
Also, the Rockets could have sought league input before signing the deal. They came up with a creative gamble to make the contract a potentially valuable trade piece, but it was a gamble.

Marks:
Important note from Jonathan. Most rough drafts of a contract are first sent to the NBA for feedback/changes.


We're they trying too hard to trick the league?
   6778. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: September 20, 2019 at 11:41 AM (#5881181)
sounds that way
   6779. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: September 20, 2019 at 12:42 PM (#5881199)
rockets sign thabo to a presumably more normal contract (min, fully guaranteed). he's old, but still a nice depth piece.
   6780. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: September 20, 2019 at 01:42 PM (#5881217)
Ah, Chicago culture at it's Chicagoist.
   6781. tshipman Posted: September 20, 2019 at 02:00 PM (#5881226)
This kind of rule-stretching crap gets Morey a lot of adulation in the blogosphere, but backfires as often as it helps. These kinds of incidents are part of why I don't have Morey as a top 5 GM.
   6782. jmurph Posted: September 20, 2019 at 02:12 PM (#5881230)
Ah, Chicago culture at it's Chicagoist.

I don't know how they got the real Jenny Lewis involved in that, but... I guess I'm a Bulls fan now? Who knew.
   6783. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: September 20, 2019 at 03:33 PM (#5881268)
jmurph must be wired on Red Bull and Hennessy.
   6784. Fourth True Outcome Posted: September 20, 2019 at 05:51 PM (#5881361)
This kind of rule-stretching crap gets Morey a lot of adulation in the blogosphere, but backfires as often as it helps. These kinds of incidents are part of why I don't have Morey as a top 5 GM.

I don't know that I have a specific top 5 GMs list, but I agree with the sentiment. The public whining after the last postseason, I think, comes from a similar place. Morey seems to be obsessed with trying to run the smartest front office in the league. That's not a bad thing, exactly, but there is sometimes a delta between trying to do the single smartest (or maybe cleverest) thing and trying to pick the best thing for the team's chances of winning, and Morey seems to pick the former every time.
   6785. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: September 23, 2019 at 11:54 AM (#5882172)
I'd wondered if this was what they were doing...

Per Shams, the Magic will not sign Okeke until next year - he'll spend this season recovering from surgery. I'd imagine they'll have him sign with the Lakeland Magic so that he can recover in house (sort of like how the Thunder had Huestis play for the Blue a few years back).
This strikes me as a loophole that should maybe be closed with the next CBA negotiation?

---

And I thought I was low on Morey - he's done a heck of a job in Houston, imo. (This sentiment is from prior to this offseason.)
   6786. jmurph Posted: September 23, 2019 at 12:50 PM (#5882202)
Per Shams, the Magic will not sign Okeke until next year - he'll spend this season recovering from surgery. I'd imagine they'll have him sign with the Lakeland Magic so that he can recover in house (sort of like how the Thunder had Huestis play for the Blue a few years back).
This strikes me as a loophole that should maybe be closed with the next CBA negotiation?

How did they get him to agree to that?
   6787. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: September 23, 2019 at 01:03 PM (#5882209)
I bet they did pre-draft -- he might not have been a first round pick with his injury and Orlando had impending tax worries.
   6788. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: September 23, 2019 at 01:31 PM (#5882221)
RIP Andre Emmett, reportedly shot to death in Dallas last night.
   6789. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: September 23, 2019 at 03:14 PM (#5882270)
since 1983-84, most assists to start a career without a 3Per:
                                                      
Rk             Player From   To    G    MP 3P 3PA  AST
1         Joakim Noah 2008 2019  667 18595  0  16 1900
2       Zaza Pachulia 2004 2019 1098 22233  0  31 1433
3       Robert Parish 1984 1997 1064 30522  0   3 1348
4         Ben Simmons 2018 2019  160  5432  0  17 1271
5     Dikembe Mutombo 1992 2009 1196 36807  0   2 1240
10     Tyson Chandler 2002 2019 1134 31401  0  11  961
14   Kendrick Perkins 2004 2018  782 17155  0  14  813
16        Kurt Rambis 1984 1995  738 13367  0  11  784
21        Tyrone Hill 1991 2004  801 22397  0  13  647
28        Rudy Gobert 2014 2019  406 11661  0   3  545
36       Steven Adams 2014 2019  467 12528  0   7  469


   6790. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: September 23, 2019 at 04:22 PM (#5882310)
Using bb-ref's shooting stats...

% on long twos:
Noah 36.7%, Zaza 34.2%, Ben 27.7%, Perk 33.1%
% of shots that were long twos:
Noah 12.0%, Zaza 11.7%, Ben 2.4%, Perk 3.9%
   6791. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: September 23, 2019 at 04:28 PM (#5882312)
How did they get him to agree to that?

Bobby Marks @BobbyMarks42

Having Chuma Okeke sit out the season benefits both sides. Okeke will earn an extra $1M by signing next summer under the 20-21 rookie scale. ORL are currently $3.8M below the tax (w/o Okeke- he would have count $3.1M) and can use the 2 open spots on a player(s) that can help now.

Bobby Marks @BobbyMarks42

Should be noted that there is nothing restricting Okeke from signing his 1st rd. rookie tender and be on the roster this season. The tender would have been at less $$ from what he could/will earn. The agreement is a cooperation between the player and organization.


That seems like it shouldn't be possible, though if both sides agree... Can that be enforced? What happens if the Magic decide they don't want to pay him next year - would he get screwed?
   6792. jmurph Posted: September 23, 2019 at 04:31 PM (#5882313)
Yeah I saw the explanation about earning more next year, but isn't he earning nothing this year? Or next to nothing, assuming as Der-K speculated that he signs for the G League team.
   6793. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: September 23, 2019 at 04:53 PM (#5882324)
Using bb-ref's shooting stats...

% on long twos:
Noah 36.7%, Zaza 34.2%, Ben 27.7%, Perk 33.1%
% of shots that were long twos:
Noah 12.0%, Zaza 11.7%, Ben 2.4%, Perk 3.9%
that's not even the fun one. this is the fun one:

FT%:
noah: 70%
zaza: 75%
perk: 59%
yank: 58%
   6794. JJ1986 Posted: September 23, 2019 at 08:08 PM (#5882383)
Okeke is not benefiting. He is potentially losing a lot of money unless he thinks he'll never sign a big contract. Say he sticks on his rookie scale deal for four years - he'll be 26 instead of 25 when he gets his next contract and he'll miss out on a year of salary at the front end. Same thing again if he becomes a good player and signs another contract after 8 or 9 years in the league. He'll be on the first contract (extension or offer sheet) an additional year before he can really get a free agent salary.
   6795. tshipman Posted: September 24, 2019 at 01:19 AM (#5882471)
Interesting trade idea that I saw online:

Who says no?

Thunder - Dragic, James Johnson

Memphis - Myers Leonard

Miami - André Iguodala, Chris Paul

   6796. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: September 24, 2019 at 07:48 AM (#5882492)
Okeke is almost definitely not benefiting relative to signing now for the usual slot.
He is likely not benefiting relative to signing for a fraction of slot, as would be permitted under the CBA and the Magic could have offered knowing he either takes it or sits a year (not rehabbing with them, they out a pick).
Given that he’s agreeing to this, I presume they discussed this possibility pre draft, when the alternative for Okeke MIGHT have been falling to round two (where he would have been selected) for terms worse than this.

It looks like my G league conjecture was right, btw, though it would almost have to be to float him some money and get him rehabbed.
   6797. jmurph Posted: September 24, 2019 at 10:52 AM (#5882539)
Thunder - Dragic, James Johnson

Memphis - Myers Leonard

Miami - André Iguodala, Chris Paul

Hmmmm, the league, I think, Miami would have to send out more salary to make it work.

But assuming it did, I think that looks fair all around except Memphis would presumably expect some draft asset thrown in, too?
   6798. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: September 24, 2019 at 11:17 AM (#5882553)
But assuming it did, I think that looks fair all around except Memphis would presumably expect some draft asset thrown in, too?
there's no way that OKC agrees to that without MIA kicking in a ton of draft capital.
   6799. jmurph Posted: September 24, 2019 at 11:27 AM (#5882561)
there's no way that OKC agrees to that without MIA kicking in a ton of draft capital.

OKC might expect that but it would make no sense. Houston had to attach multiple firsts to Paul in order to exchange him for another one of the worst contracts in the league.

Dragic is expiring, and Johnson is only owed $16 million. It would save them almost 90 million dollars.
   6800. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: September 24, 2019 at 11:36 AM (#5882563)
OKC might expect that but it would make no sense. Houston had to attach multiple firsts to Paul in order to exchange him for another one of the worst contracts in the league.
HOU didn't make that trade because of paul's contract, or because of his play on the court; they made that trade because harden and paul hate each other.

that conflict doesn't exist for OKC. they don't need to get rid of paul immediately; they can wait for an offer that provides long-term value for them.
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