Prediction time?

@KyleNeubeck
Brett Brown: “We will end up playing smash mouth offense and bully ball defense.”

@TomMoorePhilly
Brett Brown: ‘Tobias promises he will be better, defensively. I’m looking forward to seeing it.’ #Sixers

@TomMoorePhilly
Brett Brown: ‘Joel is Shaquille O’Neal with soccer feet.’

I asked my almost-3-year-old last night if she wanted to watch the Mets game and she said "How about a basketball game?" so I guess it's time for the season.

Marc Stein @TheSteinLine

NBA teams were notified this week that they must certify and submit the precise height and age for every player within the first week of training camp, league sources tell
@NYTSports

Marc Stein @TheSteinLine

For years some players have been listed as taller -- and some shorter -- than they really are. The league clearly wants to change that.

Marc Stein @TheSteinLine

Height will be measured with players' shoes OFF, I'm told. Player weight will not be sought because that number fluctuates so often ...

Between this and the Bucks getting fined for tampering with their own player, it's good to see the NBA has it's priorities in order.

Anytime leagues do weird things like this I just assume there is a gambling angle I'm not seeing.

@TomMoorePhilly
Brett Brown: ‘Tobias promises he will be better, defensively. I’m looking forward to seeing it.’ #Sixers

For 180 million, I'd promise them whatever they want to hear.

Prediction time?

Since I'm stuck home for a week after surgery with nothing else to do, I might as well start:

WEST

1 - LAC (56-26)
2 - UTA (55-27)
3 - DEN (53-29)
4 - HOU (53-29)
5 - LAL (50-32)
6 - POR (49-33)
7 - GSW (48-34)
8 - SAS (43-39) - 23rd straight playoff appearance breaks the record
-
9 - DAL
10 - NOP
11 - MIN
12 - SAC
13 - OKC
14 - MEM
15 - PHX

LAC over SAS
UTA over GSW - Maaaaybe some homerism, but I'd love it if the Jazz were the first Western team to beat the Warriors since 2014
DEN over POR - Nugs avenge their loss from last year's epic 2nd round series
LAL over HOU

LAC over LAL - Highly anticipated battle of the star studded LA teams comes a round earlier than the TV networks probably would have liked
UTA over DEN - Of all the top Western teams, Denver scares me the least as a Jazz fan

LAC over UTA - I won't be TOO disappointed if the Jazz have to settle for their first WCF appearance since 2007 (though I reserve the right to change my mind if it actually happens, of course)

EAST

1 - MIL (58-24)
2 - PHI (57-25)
3 - BOS (48-34)
4 - TOR (46-36)
5 - IND (46-36)
6 - BKN (45-37) - Talk of KD maybe coming back before the end of the season?
7 - MIA (43-39)
8 - ORL (42-40)
-
9 - DET
10 - ATL
11 - CHI
12 - NYK
13 - CLE
14 - WAS
15 - CHA

MIL over ORL
PHI over MIA
BKN over BOS
IND over TOR

MIL over IND
PHI over BKN

PHI over MIL - The Process worked...

FINALS

LAC over PHI - ...almost

Kawhi wins Finals MVP for 3rd different team, breaking the tie he currently shares with Kareem and LeBron.

I don't actually make season long bets and I'm no fan of the Sixers, but I'm thinking Philadelphia +800 or more to win the championship is a good bet. The East champion is going to be close to 50/50 to win the whole thing and theyre the second best team there with seemingly the right guys to defend Giannis.

23rd straight playoff appearance breaks the record

This prompted me to look up whose record they tied, which led me to learn this factoid: the 1975-76 Lakers got 82 games from a prime KAJ (28 years old)...and still missed the playoffs! That seems like it should be impossible.

#7 - Agreed. After a rare season last year where the East was actually more top heavy than the West, we're back to where we've been for most of the past 20 years, where every good EC team basically has a free ride to the conference finals. Since the Bucks and Sixers are both basically 50/50 to make the Finals by default, that makes either of them a better long term bet than any of the 5 or so comparable teams in the West.

This prompted me to look up whose record they tied, which led me to learn this factoid: the 1975-76 Lakers got 82 games from a prime KAJ (28 years old)...and still missed the playoffs! That seems like it should be impossible.

The system was different back then, as the Lakers missed the playoffs despite the fact that two teams with worse records in their own conference made it. The Lakers tied for the 9th best record in the NBA that year in a 20 team league.

I'm not sure who, if anyone, will pass them, but am I crazy for thinking Milwaukee takes a decent step back this year? Brogdon was really, really good. And I am even less convinced by the supporting cast this year than I was last year. Wes Mathews looks cooked. Is Hill bouncing back at age 33 (34 for the playoffs)? Korver is going to play a lot? Is Connaughton taking a big step? I don't know.

"The rest of the East is bad" is actually a totally fair argument for the other side, to be fair.

More lists to throw darts at! Bleacher Report's best 15 players of all time:

1. Jordan
2. LeBron
3. Kareem
4. Magic
5. Bird
6. Shaq
7. Duncan
8. Russell
9. Wilt
10. Curry
11. Oscar
12. Robinson
13. Hakeem
14. Kobe
15. Durant

Full top 50 here.

Where is KG?

Holy God that is a terrible list.

Where is KG?

16.

#11 - I don't think you're crazy, which is why I picked the Sixers to make the Finals instead. The Bucks lost some legitimate depth in Mirotic and especially Brogdon. That said, I think they're still basically an EC lock just because no one else looks like they improved enough to surpass them.

- Siakam might be an All Star, but he's no Kawhi, and Lowry, Gasol, and Ibaka are just going to be a year older.

- For the Pacers, Oladipo will still be recovering for half the season and all the new guys they brought in just basically replaced all the guys who left via free agency/retirement/league suspension.

- Boston lost 2 All Stars (Irving, Horford) and 3 depth pieces (Morris, Baynes, Rozier) and replaced them with 1 All Star (Walker), 1 depth piece (Kanter), and rookies. Unless Kyrie's presence was really THAT toxic, that seems like a net loss to me. 2017 Garthim Hedwig isn't walking through that door.

- The Nets improved by replacing Russell with Irving, but without KD it won't be enough.

- Butler by himself isn't enough to make Miami a threat.

[17] Sleep on Markelle Fultz at your own (extremely small) risk.

Zach Lowe was expressing a lot of optimism about Orlando and Miami on his podcast with Arnovitz (which was very good if you haven't heard it yet), and I'm just not seeing it. Making the playoffs, sure, but I don't see the high end potential for either team.

3rd in the East is really wide open, especially since it's hard to know what Toronto does (semi blow it up, retool on the fly around Siakim, something else?).

2017 Garthim Hedwig isn't walking through that door.

HTH I saw his name "correctly" in a team write up and I was honestly confused until I realized they were talking about Galloping Hornblower.

Here's the win total projections again, from Pinnacle Sports. Some shaded to over/some under but who cares for our purposes:

Bucks 57.5
Sixers 54.5
Celtics 48.5
Pacers 46.5
Raptors 46.5
Heat 43.5
Nets 43.5
Magic 41.5
---
Pistons 37.5
Hawks 33.5
Bulls 32.5
Wizards 28.5
Knicks 26.5
Cavaliers 24.5
Hornets 23.5

Clippers 54.5
Jazz 54.5
Rockets 53.5
Nuggets 52.5
Lakers 51.5
Warriors 47.5
Blazers 46.5
Spurs 46.5
---
Mavs 40.5
Pelicans 39.5
Kings 37.5
Timberwolves 35.5
Thunder 31.5
Suns 28.5
Grizzlies 27.5

- Butler by himself isn't enough to make Miami a threat

they're also getting a full season from dion waiters.

- The Nets improved by replacing Russell with Irving, but without KD it won't be enough.

BRK has a ton of depth. for various reasons, this isn't going to be their year, but they are very dangerous.

G: kyrie irving, lavert, dinwiddie
W: harris, garrett temple, taurean prince, david nwaba, kurucs, musa, wilson chandler, kevin durant
B: allen, deandre jordan, nick claxton

Seat of my pants predictions on O/U for each of these. I guarantee you it won't add up right, and I'll be wrong on more than I'm right. I'm just not quite there on making my predictions yet.

Bucks 57.5 O
Sixers 54.5 O
Celtics 48.5 U
Pacers 46.5 U
Raptors 46.5 O
Heat 43.5 O
Nets 43.5 O
Magic 41.5 U
---
Pistons 37.5 O
Hawks 33.5 O
Bulls 32.5 O
Wizards 28.5 U
Knicks 26.5 U
Cavaliers 24.5 O
Hornets 23.5 U

Clippers 54.5 O
Jazz 54.5 O
Rockets 53.5 U
Nuggets 52.5 U
Lakers 51.5 O
Warriors 47.5 U
Blazers 46.5 O
Spurs 46.5 U
---
Mavs 40.5 O
Pelicans 39.5 O
Kings 37.5 U
Timberwolves 35.5 U
Thunder 31.5 U
Suns 28.5 U
Grizzlies 27.5 U

I’m obviously just a casual fan, but wanted to chime in to say I LOVE the new G-League free throw rule, and would be thrilled to see the NBA adopt it.

they're also getting a full season from dion waiters.

Are you noting this because it's a good thing or a bad thing?

2017 Garthim Hedwig isn't walking through that door.

Gobbledigook Hornswaggle's 2016-17 TS%: 0.595

2018-19 TS%, by month:
October: .481
November: .539
December: .514
January: .557
February: .644
March: .623
April: .762

Under the radar, he showed huge improvement towards the end of the year. Cherry-picking TS% is hardly a statistical tell-all, but the trend is stark, and entirely in line with the eye test. Paul George, who suffered the most comparable injury of anyone in the league, took a full year to return to form, at which point he played as well as ever. Which is all to say that, while it's certainly no guarantee Gendered Horse will do the same, there's much more reason for optimism than that.

That Brett Brown line about Embiid is embarrassing. The only way it would've been true is if he added "heron legs" before soccer feet. Prediction? The Philly starting 5 suffers two major leg issues.

I hope someone in this thread is tracking all the variations of Gentrified Harem's name we come up with .

Prediction? The Philly starting 5 suffers two major leg issues.

Both to Embiid, orrrrrr...?

Under the radar, he showed huge improvement towards the end of the year. Cherry-picking TS% is hardly a statistical tell-all, but the trend is stark, and entirely in line with the eye test. Paul George, who suffered the most comparable injury of anyone in the league, took a full year to return to form, at which point he played as well as ever. Which is all to say that, while it's certainly no guarantee Gendered Horse will do the same, there's much more reason for optimism than that.

I'm also not particularly worried about GO Radon Hernobyl, I think he'll be fine (not an All Star, but a fine starter).

My bigger concern is that Boston maybe doesn't employ a starting caliber big man.

It is going to be very interesting to see what Stevens makes of the Kanter/Theis/Timelord/new French Guy big rotation. It's easy to imagine a decent center rotation shaking out if two of those players perform well; it is also easy to imagine it being a liability all season. My preseason hope is that Robert Williams really turns a corner and turns his athleticism, defense, and passing into a coherent package, but my preseason hopes are almost always wildly off-base, so who knows.

Success generally boils down to who has the best player, especially in the playoffs. Boston is in an interesting place, because they have some lottery tickets -- Getwell Healfast might be all the way back and be a top ten player, Kemba might be better than any of us realized and just hamstrung by Charlotte, Tatum or Brown might make a big leap. None of these are individually likely, but they do have a fair collection of outs. If something hits, things like questions about their bigs probably don't matter; if nothing hits, they are not getting past the second round regardless.

Basically I think the team with the best player on the court almost always wins a playoff series. Every now and then you get some situation where LeBron is the best player in the league but he's facing the Warriors who have huge advantages at second, third, fourth, fifth best, but it really does take those advantages to shift the pendulum.

Davo, I’m pretty interested in it myself. One concern I have is: it should increase variance w outcomes, making fouling a better strategy when down. Don’t really like that.

I'm unclear what problem the free throw thing is supposed to fix.

I hope someone in this thread is tracking all the variations of Gentrified Harem's name we come up with

I'm curious myself; if I can find a decent way to gather all the thread URLs (at least the initial pages) since Goldilocks Helltooth first broke Booey's heart, I'd be happy to write a little script to scrape the data.

When I set up new threads, I link the old one in the title. When someone else does, I usually link in somewhere it the first couple of posts.

I forget: what’s the origin of Grapedude Hazelnut anyway?

People kept spelling Hayward as Heyward in his Jazz days, I commented that Booey was going to unleash hell on us if we didn't stop, then everyone started doing it on purpose.

A rare victory for the search feature! Here's the thread.

That tracks; thanks!

People kept spelling Hayward as Heyward in his Jazz days, I commented that Booey was going to unleash hell on us if we didn't stop, then everyone started doing it on purpose.

Yeah, Heyward or Haywood. But once Garfield Heathcliff put on the wrong laundry, I was no longer contractually obligated to correct mis-spellings of his name, so I've done my best to lead the charge since.

Getwell Healfast might be all the way back and be a top ten player,

In the entire league? Even during his All Star season he probably barely cracked the top 20.

Basically I think the team with the best player on the court almost always wins a playoff series. Every now and then you get some situation where LeBron is the best player in the league but he's facing the Warriors who have huge advantages at second, third, fourth, fifth best, but it really does take those advantages to shift the pendulum.

This is a common opinion, but I've wondered a lot lately about how true it really is (mainly, cuz as a Jazz fan, I pretty much HAVE to hope that depth can beat out top shelf individual talent). It's true that teams very rarely win a title without an MVP candidate, but isn't it also true that teams rarely have one of the best records in the league without a top 10 guy to begin with? So I guess the real question is, if two teams with similar records meet up in the playoffs, is the top heavy team with a couple big stars and not much else really much more likely to win than the deep team with lesser stars but more good players? It's easy to find examples for both arguments; you mentioned LeBron, but he's been the best player in the league almost every year of his career, and he's won just 3 titles.

Since all things must eventually come back to the Jazz, I think of their 2017 and 2018 first round series vs the Clippers and Thunder. Utah had an identical record both times, but with Griffin/Paul and Westbrook/George, I think most fans and analysts would have agreed that LAC and OKC had not only the best but the TWO best players in each series. And they had home court. The Jazz won both series anyway, and I don't think either was a major upset (hell, they should've been favored in the OKC series). Other examples like that aren't hard to find.

I'd be happy to write a little script to scrape the data.

I just spent way too much time on this, but:

Gabfest Haymaker
Galaxy Hero
Galloping Hornblower
Galloping Horsey
Garbanzo Haywagon
Garden Hopyard
Garfield Heathcliff
Garmadon Havisham
Garmin Highlander
Garthim Hedwig
Gasworks Hogwash
Gefilte Hagfish
Gemini Hopscotch
Gendered Horse
Gene Hackman
Gentrified Harem
Gerrymander Haliburton
Gerudo Hamsammich
Getting Hayward
Getwell Healfast
Giancarlo Humbert
Giggity Hoobastank
Gigglebuddy Hufflepuff
Gilbert Hardwer
Gilderoy Hufflepuff
Gillespie Harpsichord
Giordano Hellmans
Giovanni Humbucker
Gizzard Hagweed
Glenn Howerton
Glorfindel Highwaters
Gobbledigook Hornswaggle
Goblin Hackward
Goblin Hamsandwich
Gobsmack Hamilton
Gobstopper Hailstorm
Goddammit Howie
Godric Halbertson
Gofish Horcat
Goldie Hawn
Goldilocks Helltooth
Goodwill Heffalump
Goodwin Hayseed
Goofball Heffalump
Goofy Halfstep
Goosestep Huckleberry
Gordan Hayward
Gordita Hellboy
Gordito Haybale
Gordon Hayward
Gordon Haywards
Gordon Heyward
Gordonbert Humperward
Gordy Heyward
Gorgeous Houseboy
Gorgonzola Havarti
Gorgoroth Haymaker
Gorlack Huggington
Gorman Harvard
Gorman Harwood
Gormandy Harlequin
Gorusch Hampstead
Gorwick Hammerstein
Gorwin Hammond
Gosling Hoosier
Gothic Hammerstep
Gradual Healthiness
Grady Hamhock
Granny Hamner
Grapedude Hazelnut
Great Houdini
Grimmer Haybert
Gringo Haywhite
Grizzly Haggard

#44 - I've never been so proud to be a member of this thread.

Well played, Gents.

g-sizzle haydizzle

That Brett Brown line about Embiid is embarrassing. The only way it would've been true is if he added "heron legs" before soccer feet.

yeah, it really kinda is. brown massively undersold the advantage that embiid has over shaq at the FT line.

trade machine: who says no?

PHI: gorzelanny hoffpauir
BOS: tobias harris

re: Goosestep Huckleberry, in Boston Public Market in fall of 2017 they were exhibiting the largest gourd grown in the state that year, which was of course named Gourdon Haywood. I have a picture somewhere.

[48] Even ignoring the disincentive to help an in-conference rival, why on earth would the Celtics trade low on a potential all-star just to get an overpaid, lower-ceiling guy at the same position? If you're going to troll, put a little more effort into it.

So here's ESPN's top 100 of 2020 list, to compare with the one I posted from Sports Illustrated (in parenthesis) a couple weeks back:

100 - Derrick White (91)
99 - Evan Fournier (n/a)
98 - Mitchell Robinson (n/a)
97 - Robert Covington (64)
96 - Derrick Favors (55)
95 - Jarrett Allen (97)
94 - Justice Winslow (n/a)
93 - Ja Morant (n/a)
92 - Julius Randle (79)
91 - Danilo Gallinari (50)
90 - Otto Porter (57)
89 - Joe Harris (95)
88 - Fred VanVleet (n/a)
87 - Marcus Smart (82)
86 - Josh Richardson (71)
85 - Paul Millsap (43)
84 - Ricky Rubio (73)
83 - Jusuf Nurkic (78)
82 - PJ Tucker (74)
81 - Bam Adebayo (93)
80 - Brook Lopez (66)
79 - Patrick Beverley (81)
78 - Eric Gordon (63)
77 - Kyle Kuzma (96)
76 - Spencer Dinwiddie (92)
75 - Steven Adams (40)
74 - Bogdan Bogdanovic (n/a)
73 - JJ Redick (67)
72 - Montrezl Harrell (77)
71 - Dejounte Murray (94)
70 - Gary Harris (48)
69 - Marvin Bagley III (n/a)
68 - Lonzo Ball (n/a)
67 - Eric Bledsoe (46)
66 - Deandre Ayton (n/a)
65 - Gridiron Hurtlocker (59)
64 - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (n/a)
63 - Domantas Sabonis (76)
62 - Joe Ingles (65)
61 - Marc Gasol (42)
60 - Caris LeVert (69)
59 - Buddy Hield (54)
58 - Lou Williams (53)
57 - Malcolm Brogdon (61)
56 - Brandon Ingram (85)
55 - Zach LaVine (90)
54 - Jaren Jackson Jr (83)
53 - Clint Capela (56)
52 - Andre Drummond (36)
51 - Jaylen Brown (68)
50 - Lauri Markkanen (75)
49 - Klay Thompson (58)
48 - Bojan Bogdanovic (52)
47 - John Collins (51)
46 - DeMar DeRozan (31)
45 - Aaron Gordon (60)
44 - Myles Turner (47)
43 - Kevin Love (41)
42 - Zion Williamson (n/a)
41 - LaMarcus Aldridge (16)
40 - Nikola Vucevic (45)
39 - Kyle Lowry (28)
38 - Draymond Green (17)
37 - Al Horford (18)
36 - Khris Middleton (27)
35 - Jayson Tatum (35)
34 - Kristaps Porzingis (37)
33 - Victor Oladipo (39)
32 - Chris Paul (21)
31 - Jrue Holiday (25)
30 - Devin Booker (34)
29 - Tobias Harris (49)
28 - Trae Young (62)
27 - Jamal Murray (38)
26 - D'Angelo Russell (44)
25 - De'Aaron Fox (33)
24 - Mike Conley (26)
23 - Blake Griffin (19)
22 - Pascal Siakam (24)
21 - Jimmy Butler (11)
20 - Donovan Mitchell (29)
19 - Bradley Beal (22)
18 - Karl-Anthony Towns (13)
17 - Kemba Walker (20)
16 - Luka Doncic (30)
15 - Ben Simmons (23)
14 - Rudy Gobert (14)
13 - CJ McCollum (32)
12 - Russell Westbrook (12)
11 - Kyrie Irving (15)
10 - Paul George (9)
9 - Damian Lillard (10)
8 - Joel Embiid (7)
7 - Nikola Jokic (8)
6 - Stephen Curry (4)
5 - Anthony Davis (6)
4 - James Harden (5)
3 - LeBron James (3)
1-2 - Giannis (1) and Kawhi (2) in some order. They're withholding their top 2 choices and I'm too impatient to wait.

It looks like most the biggest differences come from ESPN being a lot more optimistic than Sports Illustrated about young guys making the leap (Trae Young, Luka Doncic, Zion, etc), and a lot more pessimistic about old guys holding rank (Jimmy Butler, Al Horford, Draymond Green, LaMarcus Aldridge, Paul Millsap, etc).

A couple other random observations:

- CJ McCollum at 13! That one blew my mind. I think I'm much closer to SI's ranking (32) on him.

- I remember someone questioning Pascal Siakam being in the top 30 when I posted the SI list, but now he's cracked the top 25 on both lists. The consensus seems to be that he's going to be really good...

Man, they hate Otto Porter.

Man, they hate Otto Porter.

so did WAS. porter was traded for literally nothing, so it seems likely that most people around the league don't value him very highly, either.

[48] Even ignoring the disincentive to help an in-conference rival, why on earth would the Celtics trade low on a potential all-star just to get an overpaid, lower-ceiling guy at the same position? If you're going to troll, put a little more effort into it.

from #51:

So here's ESPN's top 100 of 2020 list, to compare with the one I posted from Sports Illustrated (in parenthesis) a couple weeks back:
65 - Gridiron Hurtlocker (59)
29 - Tobias Harris (49)

The bookies know what they're doing, so I'll basically take post #22, but sub out the Spurs and sub in the Kings. I like the Kings, and the Spurs magic has to be coming to an end, although I guess they're getting some guys healthy this year. I dunno, I still think I'm doing that.

In the playoffs, I think the East may not be *quite* as weak as people are making out. Indiana could be legitimately good when 'Dipo is back, and if Durant comes back for the playoffs all bets are off for how good Brooklyn would be. I think if Hayward and Tatum hit their upper projections they could be good too. Don't get me wrong, the West is stronger (at least through the top 6).

I think Milwaukee will regress some. Except for Brogdon's late injury they did pretty well on that front as I recall, and I think Bledsoe, Hill, and Lopez performed towards the top end of their expectations. I think there are some areas on the roster that can handle more minutes, though I think the guard/wing minutes weren't those minutes. I still think they're the best regular season team. Philadelphia's roster doesn't fit or shoot well and while in the playoffs their defense will be tough, I think they could have trouble with random games in the regular season, especially if Embiid misses time.

I'd take Hayward over Harris, and I think McCollum is nowhere near the 13th best player in the NBA. Man, their playoff luckiness last year has people overrating that team and both McCollum and Dame, IYAM.

38 - Draymond Green
28 - Trae Young

Checks out.

Free throw thing: Isn't the one shot for all points only on shooting fouls? And even then, it looks like what ESPN is reporting is that the last 2 minutes and OT would be normal rules. If so, I don't see how it affects end of game scenarios in any meaningful way. I think it's meant to just improve the general flow of the 2nd quarter, and not have an army of James Hardens slow down the league.

I think end of game scenarios also need to be looked at, but I think this is a pretty good idea.

I'd take Hayward over Harris

i'd take chlamydia over harris, but he's a better player than gorhay manniceshot

One advantage of the all-or-nothing free throw is that it's easier for the ball not to lie.

Deadspin also ranked 100 players recently, and I think it's the most objective rankings I've seen so far. Their take:

1. Jaylen Adams, Milwaukee Bucks
2. Steven Adams, Oklahoma City Thunder
3. Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat
4. Deng Adel, Brooklyn Nets
5. LaMarcus Aldridge, San Antonio Spurs
6. Kyle Alexander, Miami Heat
7. Nickeil Alexander-Walker, New Orleans Pelicans
8. Grayson Allen, Memphis Grizzlies
9. Jarrett Allen, Brooklyn Nets
10. Kadeem Allen, New York Knicks
11. Al-Farouq Aminu, Orlando Magic
12. Kyle Anderson, Memphis Grizzlies
13. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
14. Kostas Antetokounmpo, Los Angeles Lakers
15. Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
16. OG Anunoby, Toronto Raptors
17. Ryan Arcidiacono, Chicago Bulls
18. Trevor Ariza, Sacramento Kings
19. D.J. Augustin, Orlando Magic
20. Deandre Ayton, Phoenix Suns
21. Dwayne Bacon, Charlotte Hornets
22. Marvin Bagley III, Sacramento Kings
23. Lonzo Ball, New Orleans Pelicans
24. Mo Bamba, Orlando Magic
25. J.J. Barea, Dallas Mavericks
26. Harrison Barnes, Sacramento Kings
27. RJ Barrett, New York Knicks
28. Will Barton, Denver Nuggets
29. Keita Bates-Diop, Minnesota Timberwolves
30. Nicolas Batum, Charlotte Hornets
31. Aron Baynes, Phoenix Suns
32. Kent Bazemore, Portland Trail Blazers
33. Darius Bazley, Oklahoma City Thunder
34. Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards
35. Malik Beasley, Denver Nuggets
36. Michael Beasley, Detroit Pistons
37. Marco Belinelli, San Antonio Spurs
38. Jordan Bell, Minnesota Timberwolves
39. DeAndre’ Bembry, Atlanta Hawks
40. Dragan Bender, Milwaukee Bucks
41. Anthony Bennett, Houston Rockets
42. Dāvis Bertāns, Washington Wizards
43. Patrick Beverley, Los Angeles Clippers
44. Khem Birch, Orlando Magic
45. Goga Bitadze, Indiana Pacers
46. Bismack Biyombo, Charlotte Hornets
47. Nemanja Bielica, Sacramento Kings
48. Eric Bledsoe, Milwaukee Bucks
49. Trevon Bluiett, Utah Jazz
50. Bogdan Bogdanović, Sacramento Kings
51. Bojan Bogdanović, Utah Jazz
52. Bol Bol, Denver Nuggets
53. Jonah Bolden, Philadelphia 76ers
54. Jordan Bone, Detroit Pistons
55. Isaac Bonga, Washington Wizards
56. Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns
57. Chris Boucher, Toronto Raptors
58. Brian Bowen II, Indiana Pacers
59. Ky Bowman, Golden State Warriors
60. Avery Bradley, Los Angeles Lakers
61. Tony Bradley, Utah Jazz
62. Jarrell Brantley, Utah Jazz
63. Ignas Brazdeikis, New York Knicks
64. Mikal Bridges, Phoenix Suns
65. Miles Bridges, Charlotte Hornets
66. Amida Brimah, Indiana Pacers
67. Oshae Brissett, Toronto Raptors
68. Ryan Broekhoff, Dallas Mavericks
69. Malcolm Brodgon, Indiana Pacers
70. Armoni Brooks, Atlanta Hawks
71. Dillon Brooks, Memphis Grizzlies
72. Bruce Brown Jr., Detroit Pistons
73. Charles Brown Jr., Atlanta Hawks
74. Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics
75. Moses Brown, Portland Trail Blazers
76. Sterling Brown, Milwaukee Bucks
77. Troy Brown Jr., Washington Wizards
78. Jalen Brunson, Dallas Mavericks
79. Thomas Bryant, Washington Wizards
80. Reggie Bullock, New York Knicks
81. Trey Burke, Philadelphia 76ers
82. Alec Burks, Golden State Warriors
83. Deonte Burton, Oklahoma City Thunder
84. Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat
85. Bruno Caboclo, Memphis Grizzlies
86. Devontae Cacok, Los Angeles Lakers
87. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Los Angeles Lakers
88. Vlatko Čančar, Denver Nuggets
89. Clint Capela, Houston Rockets
90. Jordan Caroline, Los Angeles Lakers
91. DeMarre Carroll, San Antonio Spurs
92. Jevon Carter, Phoenix Suns
93. Vince Carter, Atlanta Hawks
94. Wendell Carter Jr., Chicago Bulls
95. Michael Carter-Williams, Orlando Magic
96. Alex Caruso, Los Angeles Lakers
97. Willie Cauley-Stein, Golden State Warriors
98. Troy Caupain, Portland Trail Blazers
99. Tyson Chandler, Houston Rockets
100. Joe Chealey, Charlotte Hornets

let me once again propose my awful #hoopideas:

-- if you're fouled behind the 3P line and the shot goes in, fine, it's a 4 point play. if you miss, it's a 2-shot foul like every other shooting foul. the NBA already moved towards this kind of rule when they outlawed durant's rip-through, and this would continue to chip away at overt foul hunting.

-- i like the one shot FT idea, but i don't like the all-or-nothing implementation. instead, i'd give shooters the first FT, so every shooting foul would net at least 1 point, and players would shoot the 2nd FT like normal (because again, no 3P shooting fouls).

-- i'd get rid of technical and flagrant FTs, and just credit those points to the shooting team.

-- i'd also get rid of charging, and turn all collision type fouls into blocking fouls. offensive fouls can still be called if a player pushes off, or makes some kind of unnatural move to create contact, but i cannot abide by the idea that standing still is being rewarded as if it's the same as playing good defense.

-- w/r/t backing down in the post, i'd put the onus on defenders to hold their ground in the post to negate marcus smarting. if an offensive player in the post can knock his defender to the ground, he should be rewarded for it.

-- that being said, in order to prevent offenses from devolving into 15 seconds of al horford repeatedly banging aryon baynes, the offensive player would only get two unsuccessful attempts at backing down the defender. after those two failed attempts, the ball has to be passed or shot, or else it's a turnover (but not an offensive foul).

-- if you're fouled behind the 3P line and the shot goes in, fine, it's a 4 point play. if you miss, it's a 2-shot foul like every other shooting foul. the NBA already moved towards this kind of rule when they outlawed durant's rip-through, and this would continue to chip away at overt foul hunting.

This one is fantastic. 100% agree.

i'd give shooters the first FT, so every shooting foul would net at least 1 point, and players would shoot the 2nd FT like normal (because again, no 3P shooting fouls).

-- i'd get rid of technical and flagrant FTs, and just credit those points to the shooting team.

Here, however, the fact that a referee's subjective call would directly give a team points, without any player ever having to complete a task to earn it, really feels like crossing some rubicon to me. I can see the appeal of how they speed up the game and subtly nudge point allocation, but no team should ever get points without the chance to choke them away.

harris, but he's a better player than gorhay manniceshot

He certainly has been the last two years, but obviously Hayward was a lot better than Harris prior to the injury. I don't blame anyone who would think those days aren't coming back, but at least the upside is there.

Also Harris's contract is just hilariously awful, no one would make that trade.

30 - Devin Booker (34)
29 - Tobias Harris (49)
28 - Trae Young (62)
27 - Jamal Murray (38)
26 - D'Angelo Russell (44)
25 - De'Aaron Fox (33)

This whole run in that ESPN list is amazing. I don't think I'd have any of these guys in the top 40, maybe even 50?

Marc Stein @TheSteinLine

The Lakers make it official and confirm our @NYTSports report from Tuesday that Kyle Kuzma is out indefinitely with a stress reaction in his left foot

30 - Devin Booker (34)
29 - Tobias Harris (49)
28 - Trae Young (62)
27 - Jamal Murray (38)
26 - D'Angelo Russell (44)
25 - De'Aaron Fox (33)

Which speaks to how that list underrates defense.

Moses - this news results in, what, two or three fewer wins than originally projected? Possibly enough to slide down, but not out of the playoff picture. Would that be a reasonable guess?

Seems like there is some skepticism of the Warriors, but I would be shocked if they miss the playoffs. They still have an MVP-level player and two borderline All-Stars.

Seems like there is some skepticism of the Warriors, but I would be shocked if they miss the playoffs. They still have an MVP-level player and two borderline All-Stars.

I'm really excited to see what they come up with this year. Kerr was on Howard Beck's podcast this week, and they talked about how much pick and roll Russell ran last year- it was something crazy like he was involved in more PnR plays than the entire Warriors team, or more than Curry/Durant combined, I forget. Anyway, the point is they'll certainly look different. Surely teams are going to just swarm Curry without Klay/Durant as an outlet.

Also Harris's contract is just hilariously awful, no one would make that trade.

(that's the joke)

This whole run in that ESPN list is amazing. I don't think I'd have any of these guys in the top 40, maybe even 50?

i think i'd have booker, fox and russell in the top 40, but the other 3? almost certainly not.

(that's the joke)

Well that was the joke, but then you posted twice to defend the idea, so I thought we were actually discussing it.

-- if you're fouled behind the 3P line and the shot goes in, fine, it's a 4 point play. if you miss, it's a 2-shot foul like every other shooting foul. the NBA already moved towards this kind of rule when they outlawed durant's rip-through, and this would continue to chip away at overt foul hunting.

Totally agree. 3 free throws is way too stiff a punishment for such a small violation (if there's any violation at all; the vast majority of fouls on 3-pt attempts are initiated by the shooter). Really, as far as expected points go, isn't 3 free throws basically equal to 2 shots plus the ball? So the way the rules are now, you get just as severe a punishment for simply extending your hand for a second and having the James Harden types swing his arms into it as you would for a flagrant foul, and that's just nuts. I've thought for years that fouls on 3-pers should just go back to 2 shot fouls like they used to be (except maybe in the last 2 minutes of the game, or something).

-- i like the one shot FT idea, but i don't like the all-or-nothing implementation. instead, i'd give shooters the first FT, so every shooting foul would net at least 1 point, and players would shoot the 2nd FT like normal (because again, no 3P shooting fouls).

-- i'd get rid of technical and flagrant FTs, and just credit those points to the shooting team.

Nah. Other than on 3-pers (and the foul-a-thons at the end of close games), I don't think free throws are a big problem. With the exception of goaltending, I don't think points should ever just be given without the ball actually going through the hoop.

-- i'd also get rid of charging, and turn all collision type fouls into blocking fouls. offensive fouls can still be called if a player pushes off, or makes some kind of unnatural move to create contact, but i cannot abide by the idea that standing still is being rewarded as if it's the same as playing good defense.

Agreed. The fine line between blocking fouls and charges is easy for me...they're all blocking fouls. Getting in front of someone and then falling down is the opposite of good defense. On the flipside, the defense will still get their share of calls though because I'd call an offensive foul on the shooter any time he jumps into his defender to create contact (even if he pump faked them into the air), and every time he kicks his legs out far enough to land on a defenders feet when they're not directly beneath him.

but i cannot abide by the idea that standing still is being rewarded as if it's the same as playing good defense.

Getting in front of someone and then falling down is the opposite of good defense.

I don't understand these complaints at all. Beating the attacking player to the spot? Anticipating his move, and cutting it off, thus making it harder to score or pass? How is that not good defense?

EDIT: Obviously I agree with the "falling down" part, but that's just referring to flopping.

I think part of the skepticism about the Warriors comes from the fact that their remaining MVP candidate - Curry - hasn't exactly been an iron man the past couple seasons. Without Durant and Klay to pick up the slack, the Dubs could be one Curry injury away from a devastating 3-10 stretch that knocks them way down in the playoff picture. If he misses 30 games again like he did in 2018, they could be screwed.

That said, I agree it's very unlikely they'll miss the postseason. With teams like Minnesota and OKC falling back from where they were a couple years ago, I don't think the West will be quite as deep as it was in say, 2018, when Denver missed the playoffs with a 46-36 record. Dallas and New Orleans are a year away IMO, so I doubt there's going to be more than 8 teams in the West with a winning record. I think the Dubs are still a fairly safe bet to get in.

I don't understand these complaints at all. Beating the attacking player to the spot? Anticipating his move, and cutting it off, thus making it harder to score or pass? How is that not good defense?

EDIT: Obviously I agree with the "falling down" part, but that's just referring to flopping.

The flopping is the worst part of it. Yes, getting in front of a slasher is good D, as long as you try and block the shot or strip the ball rather than just covering your nuts and flying to the ground like you got hit by a truck at the first hint of contact.

EDIT: But yeah, I should've said MOST block/charge calls should be blocking fouls rather than ALL. Occasionally the slasher is recklessly barreling through the lane like a bowling ball knocking over everyone in his path, and that shouldn't be a defensive foul.

I just think you're conflating two entirely separate things. Cutting a player off by moving your feet is probably the fundamental element of basketball defense. You're proposing making it a foul on the defender if he does that and then the offensive player barrels him over.

I'm with jmurph. Defenders need to have the right to their space. How would you even play defense otherwise?

I think calling more offensive fouls on plays where the offensive player creates the contact unnaturally to try to get a foul call would do a lot more to clean up the game and make players play more basketball and less ref-baiting.

I'm saying that getting in front of someone and then simply falling down to draw a charge rather than making a play on the ball is lazy defense. Maybe they initially made a good defensive move with their footwork to get in front of the slasher, but then they ruined it at the end by flopping and leaving it to the refs to bail them out.

Maybe that is two separate things, I don't know.

Yeah you're just saying flopping is bad, but I think we all agree with that!

I think calling more offensive fouls on plays where the offensive player creates the contact unnaturally to try to get a foul call would do a lot more to clean up the game and make players play more basketball and less ref-baiting.

But yes, this here is far and away the #1 rule/trend I would change to clean up the game if I could. I don't like the jump in front of someone and fall down method of defense, but the jump into someone to get free throws method of foul hunting is far more annoying, IMO.

Irrespective of the merits of the rest of the fouling on missed threes bit, they should be worth 3 shots in the last 2 min of the game in OT - you don't want a scenario where teams have an incentive to hammer a foul shooter when their opponent is down in an end-game situation.

#81 - Agreed. Last 2 minutes of the game and OT they can go back to 3 shots.

When was it that they changed it, anyway? Wasn't it just 2 shots for a foul on a 3-per back in the 90's (not that there were a lot of them back then)?

I don't understand these complaints at all. Beating the attacking player to the spot? Anticipating his move, and cutting it off, thus making it harder to score or pass? How is that not good defense?

go do it in a pickup game, and see where it gets you.

drawing a charge is as unnatural as the rip-through, and just like the rip-through, its only purpose is deliberate foul-hunting. it's awful. it's dangerous. it needs to go.

EDIT: But yeah, I should've said MOST block/charge calls should be blocking fouls rather than ALL. Occasionally the slasher is recklessly barreling through the lane like a bowling ball knocking over everyone in his path, and that shouldn't be a defensive foul.

clearly. i'd make that a non-call.

you also have to remember that flagrant fouls will still exist. the incident you describe would arguably be covered under the category of "unnecessary and excessive contact"

go do it in a pickup game, and see where it gets you.

Cogent.

drawing a charge is as unnatural as the rip-through

Move your feet, stay in front of your man is, like, step a1 in learning how to play basketball defense. You can't turn that into a foul.

Irrespective of the merits of the rest of the fouling on missed threes bit, they should be worth 3 shots in the last 2 min of the game in OT - you don't want a scenario where teams have an incentive to hammer a foul shooter when their opponent is down in an end-game situation.

i'm willing to add that case into the category of an intentional foul (this can also cover the hack-attack).

the offense gets 1 point (because technical FTs are now automatic), plus possession.

This is like thinking traveling is bad, and in response outlawing pivoting.

30 - Devin Booker (34)
29 - Tobias Harris (49)
28 - Trae Young (62)
27 - Jamal Murray (38)
26 - D'Angelo Russell (44)
25 - De'Aaron Fox (33)

This whole run in that ESPN list is amazing. I don't think I'd have any of these guys in the top 40, maybe even 50?

De'Aaron Fox is really good and unlike all the other guys on the list actually plays defense.

Trae Young ... do people even watch him on defense? He might have been the worst defender in the league last year. People pay way too much attention to splits for rookies.

Move your feet, stay in front of your man is, like, step a1 in learning how to play basketball defense. You can't turn that into a foul.

i'm not; i'm turning that into a non-call.

'moving your feet' tends to be the primary criteria used to distinguish a charge from a block. currently, if the defender is moving, then it's a blocking foul; if he's standing still, then it's charge.

i want to invert that. if the defender is moving his feet (playing good defense), it should be a non-call; if the defender is just standing in front of an attacking player, it should be a blocking foul.

This is like thinking traveling is bad, and in response outlawing pivoting.

yup.

'moving your feet' tends to be the primary criteria used to distinguish a charge from a block. currently, if the defender is moving, then it's a blocking foul; if he's standing still, then it's charge.

I'm going to stop now because this is crazy but no, this is not correct.

De'Aaron Fox is really good and unlike all the other guys on the list actually plays defense.

I like Fox a lot, but I still think 25, for this season, is really, really high.

I like Fox a lot, but I still think 25, for this season, is really, really high.

Sure, but he's significantly better than the other 5 guys, some of whom are not even positive players.

i'm willing to add that case into the category of an intentional foul (this can also cover the hack-attack).

the offense gets 1 point (because technical FTs are now automatic), plus possession.

Generally, attempts to regulate intent with referring have mixed success. (imo)

--

Cosign your 87, tshipman - I almost dropped Fox from my quote accordingly, though #25 still sounds optimistic to me. (Though I would consider all 5 likely positive to break-even players in '19-'20, if you don't take salary into account.)

The Grizz are going to have Josh Jackson start the year in the G League? Interesting...

Related - they desperately need a decent off guard. Possible depth chart:

Ja Morant / Ty Jones
Dillon Brooks / Grayson Allen / Marko Guduric
Kyle Anderson / Jae Crowder / ghost of S.Hill
JJJ / Brandon Clarke
Jonas V / lesser Plumlee

though #25 still sounds optimistic to me.

Just looking at PGs, they have Jrue at 31, Paul at 32, Lowry at 39. I'd probably take all three over him for just this year, but I guess to be fair it's worth noting Fox is more likely to be healthy all year than all those guys.

So with four posts left on this page and discussing stiggles' bizarre ideas seemingly replacement level for this thread, can someone help me with something? How can the Wizards' O/U be as high as 28.5?

They have one good player, who might yet get traded, and a whole bunch of G-League players. Sure, maybe some of them end up being decent but they'll probably also spend some of that playing time on players who turn out to be *really* terrible. They don't have a coach who seems likely to add value. They don't have continuity. They don't have blue-chip prospects who might take a leap or add value as rookies. They don't have flexibility to improve the team mid-season. Yet here they are, ahead of the Knicks, Cavs, and Horcats -- not that those teams are good or anything but they at least have many NBA players.

I just like, really, really don't see the argument for the Wiz to win more than 20 games, maybe 25 max. Whether you believe it or not... what even is the scenario where Washington wins say 35 games (to offset the very clear scenario where they win 20)?

lesser Plumlee

how can you tell?

The Denver one is useful. Marshall is now in the military.

I just like, really, really don't see the argument for the Wiz to win more than 20 games, maybe 25 max. Whether you believe it or not... what even is the scenario where Washington wins say 35 games (to offset the very clear scenario where they win 20)?

Fair questions, it does seem high. One theory would be the east is very bad and they get to play a looooooooot of games against very bad teams. I don't know if that will get them to 28.5, but it's a start.

96/AS, I rambled about the Wiz at length in the last thread but will note here that Beal is really good and both Bertans and Bryant have arguments for being above average players next year (Bertans - elite shooting plus better d than you'd think as evidenced but consistently good +/-; Bryant is very efficient around the rim and could develop from the perimeter or as a passer). Beyond that, it's hard to find many dudes north of replacement but that might be enough to get you to 28.

35 wins? Beal has a career year, Rui shocks me with a good year or Bertans takes steps forward that don't seem possible, Bryant improves on either O or D, they find a guy or two off the scrapheap who are decent.

I'm guessing ... 27 wins?