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Thursday, October 24, 2019

OT - NBA Thread, Start of the 2019-2020 Season

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, and we’re the only people that matter.

Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: October 24, 2019 at 02:42 PM | 1619 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, china, nba, off-topic

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Page 15 of 17 pages ‹ First  < 13 14 15 16 17 > 
   1401. jmurph Posted: December 10, 2019 at 09:26 AM (#5907377)
I don't feel bad for Love. He won a ring, made several Finals teams, and then got a contract that he immediately was not worthy of. In fact, that contract made no sense to me at the time. Was that a "Thank you"? Or was it just trying to keep some face from the title winning team?

Cleveland legitimately thought it would make him a better trade asset, it was much discussed at the time. I definitely didn't agree and I'm not sure anyone else here did, either.
   1402. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: December 10, 2019 at 10:16 AM (#5907390)
Is there any reason to think Cleveland's management knows what they are doing?
   1403. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: December 10, 2019 at 10:53 AM (#5907403)
Guess who blew another winnable game against a good team last night?

I like Lavine, but he thinks he's Kobe at the end of games or something.
   1404. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: December 10, 2019 at 02:49 PM (#5907520)
trade machine: who says no?

PHI: demarr derozan
SAS: tobias harris
   1405. smileyy Posted: December 10, 2019 at 06:47 PM (#5907611)
Both sides, quickly
   1406. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: December 10, 2019 at 08:27 PM (#5907624)
4+ more years of fake Tobias Harris trades. Jerryd Bayless's record will be shattered.
   1407. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: December 10, 2019 at 09:00 PM (#5907628)
The spurs miss Bertans.
   1408. spivey Posted: December 10, 2019 at 09:37 PM (#5907636)
Obviously the Spurs don't get rid of Bertans if they don't think they're getting Morris, but the Spurs had chronically underused Bertans for the last couple of years imo, and I think I'd rather have him than Morris, though granting they're different players.

Anyways, not just players age. Front offices do too.

On the bright side, my #2 team, the Bucks, will never lose again.
   1409. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: December 10, 2019 at 11:28 PM (#5907649)
4+ more years of fake Tobias Harris trades. Jerryd Bayless's record will be shattered.
oh yes.
Both sides, quickly

i was just kind of shitting around with that, but actually, it might have some merit...

tharris has the kind of versatile old-man skillset that tends to play up in SAS, which means he has more upside for them than derozan, and he's younger, and it's not like SAS is going anywhere with their derozan/aldridge core anyway.


otoh, derozan is better at creating his own shot and he upgrades the sixers' ballhandling, which should help their turnover issues. he also adds a little more quickness to the starting lineup. oh, and his contract isn't one of the most irredeemable albatrosses in the entire league.
   1410. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: December 10, 2019 at 11:32 PM (#5907651)
@MrUram
Joel Embiid called Nikola Jokic his “childhood hero.” He’s a big fan of the Denver big man #Sixers
(they were both drafted in 2014)...
   1411. Rally Posted: December 11, 2019 at 09:51 AM (#5907711)
(they were both drafted in 2014)...


and Embiid is almost a year older.
   1412. aberg Posted: December 11, 2019 at 01:43 PM (#5907824)
On the bright side, my #2 team, the Bucks, will never lose again.


Whereas my #2 team, the Harlem Globetrotters, remain on a very solid run.
   1413. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: December 11, 2019 at 01:54 PM (#5907828)
link
But with so much of Miami’s success directly tied to having nontraditional playmakers scattered across the floor, how much of Bam Adebayo’s and Justice Winslow’s effectiveness would get neutered by Paul holding court instead? Perhaps more importantly, would a locker room with Paul and Butler be covered in anything other than eggshells for well-meaning but imperfect young players?
...
For Miami, dreaming on the switchy goodness of Holiday, Butler, and Adebayo together would help ease the pain of losing intriguing and productive prospects. Miami is already tied for eighth in defense despite injuries and some odd frontcourt pairings, and Holiday and Butler would immediately become the scariest defensive backcourt in basketball.



fun fact:
when lonzo ball and jj redick are on the floor together, NOP's net rating is -19.


bonus fun fact:
lonzo's net rating is -10 or worse with all 5 of the teammates he's played alongside most often this year.
   1414. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: December 11, 2019 at 02:46 PM (#5907867)
I love hypotheticals like this.

I'm going through teams right now trying to figure out who would be in my catastrophe draft.
   1415. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: December 11, 2019 at 04:22 PM (#5907906)
Kyle Neubeck @KyleNeubeck
ESPN released real plus-minus data for the season so far. Sixers' entire starting lineup is in top 50: Simmons (12th, 3.90) Harris (16th, 3.61) Richardson (37th, 2.73) Horford (43rd, 2.62) Embiid (44th, 2.60) Only other team with 5 top-50 guys so far this year is Milwaukee
Jon Johnson @jonjohnsonwip
Sixers are now 13–1 when Matisse Thybulle plays 15 or more minutes. Coincidence? Not a chance.
   1416. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: December 11, 2019 at 05:08 PM (#5907925)
Kyle Neubeck @KyleNeubeck
ESPN released real plus-minus data for the season so far. Sixers' entire starting lineup is in top 50: Simmons (12th, 3.90) Harris (16th, 3.61) Richardson (37th, 2.73) Horford (43rd, 2.62) Embiid (44th, 2.60) Only other team with 5 top-50 guys so far this year is Milwaukee


¯\_(ツ)_/¯
   1417. aberg Posted: December 11, 2019 at 05:47 PM (#5907938)
ESPN released real plus-minus data for the season so far.


ta-TOOM is 4th in the entire league.
   1418. Fourth True Outcome Posted: December 11, 2019 at 05:49 PM (#5907939)
ta-TOOM is 4th in the entire league.

Behind James, Harden, and Giannis, and ahead of <checks notes> Will Barton?

Celtics also just missed the five-in-the-top-fifty arbitrarily impressive mark, with Tatum/Brown/Heymanhowsitgoing/Theis in the top 50 and Kemba sitting at 66th.
   1419. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: December 11, 2019 at 06:32 PM (#5907944)
Philly's starting 5 has the highest average rpm rank (30), with Boston right behind at 33; but the Celtics starters have the highest average rpm in the league at 3.282.

I went a little overboard and calculated the average rpm rank and average rpm for every starting 5 in the league...... and then the program I did it in froze and I lost all my work. FML, as the kids say. The funniest takeaway is that, while the Knicks have (perhaps predictably) the starters with the lowest average rpm, they only BARELY pip the Spurs for that honor. Golden State has the lowest average rank, at a shocking 326*.

* I think; it was out of frame when #### froze on me.
   1420. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: December 11, 2019 at 06:50 PM (#5907950)
The top 4 by RPM rank was Philly, Boston, Denver, Toronto (I don't remember past that); I was going to re-sort by average RPM, but didn't get there in time, and no way I'm going to bother redoing all that work. Always save as you go, kids.
   1421. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: December 11, 2019 at 08:52 PM (#5907970)
Looking like this may be the night we get the smallest #Bulls announced crowd of the United Center era.


Surely this is something Jerry would notice. Or is he too busy rigging the Nobel committee for Southpaw, who admittedly would be more deserving of any of their awards than Hawk and his Frick.
   1422. jmurph Posted: December 11, 2019 at 09:20 PM (#5907974)
Indiana has like 8 or 9 different Holidays dropping points on the Celtics tonight. Seems like it should be a rules violation of some kind.
   1423. Booey Posted: December 11, 2019 at 10:19 PM (#5907979)
Jazz actually looked good in Minnesota tonight. When a stoppable force meets a movable object, something's gotta give...
   1424. frannyzoo Posted: December 11, 2019 at 11:29 PM (#5907998)
Relegating the Dubs to the G-League seems a good option right now, sizably down to the Knicks at home.
   1425. spivey Posted: December 12, 2019 at 12:08 AM (#5908002)
Nice win for the Bucks without Giannis. Great game from Bledsoe who was the best player on the court.

Another miss for the national tv broadcasts going for Zion games.
   1426. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: December 12, 2019 at 02:00 AM (#5908010)

Jazz actually looked good in Minnesota tonight. When a stoppable force meets a movable object, something's gotta give...


Apparently ball movement is a good thing for offense. But seriously, basically everyone but Bogey had a really good offensive game. I loved how Donovan played especially.
   1427. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: December 12, 2019 at 08:41 AM (#5908021)
Wolves defense has been dismal lately. Again.
   1428. spivey Posted: December 12, 2019 at 09:00 AM (#5908023)
The catastrophe rule link to reddit is a good, entertaining thought exercise, but also made me think about how much the NBA subreddit is just awful in their takes about who is and isn't good at basketball. Which made me think about Wiggins, who many there irrationally love.

Which then got me thinking, it's about time to check back in on his stats.

Wiggins is currently sporting a .455/.336/.726 triple slash, which is slightly above his career totals (mainly because the last 2 years were so bad), but the 3pt% is pretty much in line with his career. Rebounds are back close to career norms, though still a career high. Free throws bounced back up after a couple of years where they really dropped off. Assists are still a career high. On/off is good, but box score based things (WS/48, BPM, VORP) still have him as somewhere between below average and average. His FG% looks entirely due to cutting out a bunch of the long 2s (went from 21% of his career shots in his career, and 18% last year, to 8.6% this year) which is encouraging.

All in all, it's definitely an improvement over his last 2 years, but I'm still not seeing enough to think he's a dramatically changed player. Just a bit better at his big weaknesses, but still a pretty flawed wing.
   1429. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: December 12, 2019 at 09:15 AM (#5908030)
rpm needs more sample size than we have so far (unless you think will barton is a defensive ace), but it's still interesting.
   1430. jmurph Posted: December 12, 2019 at 09:21 AM (#5908033)
rpm needs more sample size than we have so far (unless you think will barton is a defensive ace), but it's still interesting.

Also some positional updates: Daniel Theis was listed as a PF (as of yesterday, at least).
   1431. jmurph Posted: December 12, 2019 at 11:37 AM (#5908099)
This Ja Morant dunk looks edited. Unreal explosion to the rim.
   1432. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: December 12, 2019 at 12:00 PM (#5908128)
And, most of all, stop linking the player list to who is active in the league. Once you leave, you drop off all the past years' records.
   1433. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: December 12, 2019 at 12:05 PM (#5908131)
And, most of all, stop linking the player list to who is active in the league. Once you leave, you drop off all the past years' records.


It's absolutely crazy that they have this proprietary, high-visibility statistic and decide to display it to the world in the most un-user friendly format imaginable. It must be an intentional choice.
   1434. SoSH U at work Posted: December 12, 2019 at 12:12 PM (#5908135)
Looking like this may be the night we get the smallest #Bulls announced crowd of the United Center era.


I assume you're talking about last night's game, which I took my son to. I don't have much to judge it against, having previously not been to a Bulls game in several years, but it was quite not crowded.
   1435. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: December 12, 2019 at 12:15 PM (#5908138)
[1433] ESPN's website design is a load of hot garbage overall. It's clear they haven't chosen to prioritize it -- there are many things easily improvable in an hour of programming time that just suck. So I wouldn't assume any choice made is conscious.
   1436. JJ1986 Posted: December 12, 2019 at 12:24 PM (#5908147)
I haven't checked this year, but they also used to have guys classified as 'forward' but who wouldn't show up on either SF or PF positional lists.
   1437. jmurph Posted: December 12, 2019 at 12:31 PM (#5908155)
I haven't checked this year, but they also used to have guys classified as 'forward' but who wouldn't show up on either SF or PF positional lists.

This drove/drives me nuts.
   1438. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: December 12, 2019 at 12:41 PM (#5908164)
I assume you're talking about last night's game, which I took my son to. I don't have much to judge it against, having previously not been to a Bulls game in several years, but it was quite not crowded.

Correct.

Cody Westerlund @CodyWesterlund

#Bulls' announced attendance is 15,084 tonight, according to game box score. That's more than the 14,775 on Monday night.

The smallest crowd for a Bulls home game in United Center history is 14,403.


There definitely weren't anywhere near 15k people there, and it was obvious.
   1439. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: December 12, 2019 at 02:01 PM (#5908197)
#1428, yeah that's why ultimately I think the Wolves leave Wiggins off the protected list in this case. I could not decide on the four players for each team, but did on most of them:

MIL Giannis Antetokounmpo Khris Middleton Brook Lopez
BOS Jayson Tatum Kemba Walker Jaylen Brown
MIA Jimmy Butler Bam Adebayo Tyler Herro Kendrick Nunn
PHI Joel Embiid Ben Simmons Al Horford Josh Richardson
TOR Pascal Siakam Fred VanVleet Kyle Lowry O.G. Anunoby
IND Victor Oladipo Malcolm Brogdon Domantas Sabonis Myles Turner
BRO Kevin Durant Kyrie Irving Jarrett Allen
ORL Jonathan Isaac Aaron Gordon Markell Fultz
DET Luke Kennard Andre Drummond Derrick Rose
CHO Devonte' Graham Miles Bridges Malik Monk PJ Washington
CHI Zach LaVine Lauri Markkanen Wendell Carter Jr. Coby White
WAS Bradley Beal Rui Hachimura Troy Brown
ATL Trae Young John Collins Kevin Huerter De'Andre Hunter
CLE Darius Garland Collin Sexton Cedi Osman Kevin Porter Jr.
NYK RJ Barrett Mitchell Robinson Kevin Knox Dennis Smith Jr.
LAL LeBron James Anthony Davis Kyle Kuzma Danny Green
LAC Kawhi Leonard Paul George Landry Shamet Montrezl Harrell
DAL Luka Doncic Kristaps Porzingis Delon Wright
HOU James Harden Clint Capela Russell Westbrook P.J. Tucker
DEN Nikola Jokic Jamal Murray Gary Harris
UTA Donovan Mitchell Rudy Gobert Mike Conley Bojan Bogdanovic
OKC Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Danilo Gallinari
PHO Devin Booker Deandre Ayton Mikal Bridges Kelly Oubre Jr.
SAC De'Aaron Fox Buddy Hield Marvin Bagley Jr.
MIN Karl-Anthony Towns Josh Okogie Jarrett Culver Robert Covington
POR Damian Lillard CJ McCollum Anfernee Simons Zach Collins
SAS Dejounte Murray Derrick White LaMarcus Aldridge DeMar DeRozan
MEM Ja Morant Jaren Jackson Jr. Brandon Clarke Jonas Valanciunas
NOP Zion Williamson Jrue Holiday Brandon Ingram Jaxson Hayes
GSW Steph Curry D'Angelo Russell Draymond Green Klay Thompson

Bolded teams are teams I could not decide on all four spots.

I'm not sure of what my team would be with the remaining players yet, because I haven't decided if, for example, OKC would ultimately protect CP3 and/or Adams in the belief they could get assets for them. Or for example, would Detroit protect Blake? That contract is ugly. And ultimately I decided Spurs would protect both Aldridge and DeRozan, though with the latter it's only because at most he only has one more season under contract.
   1440. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: December 12, 2019 at 02:12 PM (#5908209)
trade machine: who says no?

PHI: tyler johnson, kyle anderson, dario saric
PHO: tharris
MEM: frank kaminsky, zhaire smith
   1441. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: December 12, 2019 at 02:14 PM (#5908211)
ORL Jonathan Isaac Aaron Gordon Markell Fultz
not sure if serious....
   1442. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: December 12, 2019 at 02:20 PM (#5908215)
not sure if serious....


He's been pretty good, is only 21, and they can keep him there for a long time. Also Orlando is not allowed to have good shooters. I also assume they would still choose to protect Vooch, but that contract is...not great.
   1443. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: December 12, 2019 at 02:52 PM (#5908235)
The Kevin Love thing made me wonder: Has anyone in the NBA ever re-negotiated a contract in order to get traded? I think the answer is no. Would it even be allowed if both parties wanted it to happen?
   1444. smileyy Posted: December 12, 2019 at 03:11 PM (#5908244)
I feel like the NBPA would push back very hard against anything that lowers the salary of a player, "voluntary" or not.
   1445. Topher Posted: December 12, 2019 at 05:22 PM (#5908309)
Question for you guys about Devonte' Graham. He's putting up some pretty good numbers at the moment: 20 points per game with a .578 true shooting percentage and averaging 7.6 assists a game. (He's also leading the league in minutes so discount those numbers a tiny bit ... per 36, he's at 21.3 points and 8.1 assists)

It also looks like by the advanced metrics, he's coming close to giving up a point on the defensive end for every one he contributes on the offensive side.

I know that for young players, defense is frequently one of the last skills to develop. He was on the G league roller coaster last season and played less than 700 NBA minutes in his rookie campaign. So since he's just starting his second season and only now getting regular minutes, you'd like to think that his defense would improve.

He's also not exactly young. He went to prep school before playing four years of college ball, so he's going to turn 25 in a couple of months.

So I guess my question, not that I'm expecting anyone to necessary know, is if the growth in defense is more based on one's age or if the development comes from NBA experience.

He looks kind of exciting as a breakout player, but the fact that he's about to turn 25 makes me wonder.
   1446. PJ Martinez Posted: December 12, 2019 at 07:35 PM (#5908335)
Re: 1439, the fourth Boston player would be Marcus Smart.
   1447. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: December 12, 2019 at 08:04 PM (#5908338)

Re: 1439, the fourth Boston player would be Marcus Smart.


That's what I thought, but Hayward has been just good enough that I didn't put Smart as a lock.
   1448. PJ Martinez Posted: December 12, 2019 at 08:22 PM (#5908343)
Yeah, Hayward's been a better overall player this year when he's been healthy, but given their respective contracts and ages and Smart's value as a defender I think he wins out.
   1449. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: December 12, 2019 at 09:07 PM (#5908347)
As had been rumored, the G League has invited a Mexican pro team (capitanes) to join the league for the next 5 years. I wonder how on earth that’ll work logistically (transaction/salary rules In particular).
   1450. spivey Posted: December 12, 2019 at 09:22 PM (#5908350)
Eric Bledsoe would clearly be in Milwaukee's top 4. I'd 100% take him over BroLo too. Bled can have shooting/confidence problems in the playoffs, but he's closing in on 1.5 years of all-star level basketball and he's only getting paid like 18/year.
   1451. jmurph Posted: December 12, 2019 at 09:23 PM (#5908351)
Embiid really does not have enough of a reputation as a flopper. Give the man his due, he’s fought hard for it.
   1452. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: December 12, 2019 at 10:11 PM (#5908357)
The conversation earlier about how Mitchell should excise the floater from his game entirely in favor of short jumpers? Applies equally to Tatum. I can see why he wants that in his game, but they just never go down.

Despite being a vastly better player in a vacuum, Embiid is a better defensive matchup for Enes Kanter than a run-of-the-mill pick-and-roll big.
   1453. JC in DC Posted: December 12, 2019 at 10:13 PM (#5908358)
For whole stretches of the game, I forgot Ben Simmons was on the Sixers.
   1454. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: December 12, 2019 at 10:42 PM (#5908363)
David Stern had a brain hemorrhage; rushed into emergency surgery
   1455. puck Posted: December 12, 2019 at 11:24 PM (#5908372)
Carmelo Anthony in Denver! Scores off a defensive play, whoa.
   1456. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: December 12, 2019 at 11:45 PM (#5908374)
Embiid really does not have enough of a reputation as a flopper. Give the man his due, he’s fought hard for it.
i get that, but in fairness to embiid, he falls to the ground so much is because it lessens the likelihood that he'll suffer a catastrophic injury.
Despite being a vastly better player in a vacuum, Embiid is a better defensive matchup for Enes Kanter than a run-of-the-mill pick-and-roll big.
either that, or brad stevens is a pretty good coach.
For whole stretches of the game, I forgot Ben Simmons was on the Sixers.
horford didn't play; simmons was invisible; yadayadayada...scoreboard.
   1457. Tin Angel Posted: December 13, 2019 at 12:58 AM (#5908379)
horford didn't play; simmons was invisible; yadayadayada...scoreboard.


Looking at the box score it seems like tharris is the straw that stirs the drink.
   1458. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: December 13, 2019 at 01:46 AM (#5908385)
Speaking of box scores, Doncic went for 41/12/11 on 14-24 shooting. Also, S. Curry for 30 on 11-15 (6-9 from 3) is a wistful reminder of when we had nice things.
   1459. spivey Posted: December 13, 2019 at 08:46 AM (#5908399)
Milwaukee has a few exciting games over the next 2 weeks. Mavs and Lakers next week, and then at Philadelphia on Christmas. How they come out of that stretch will determine just how ridiculous their record could get this year.
   1460. jmurph Posted: December 13, 2019 at 09:15 AM (#5908400)
i get that, but in fairness to embiid, he falls to the ground so much is because it lessens the likelihood that he'll suffer a catastrophic injury.

Is that also why he throws his hands in the air and makes a face like he's been shot 9 times a game?

He's great, I'd love him if he was on my team. But that sh#t is terrible. It's Harden-esque.
   1461. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: December 13, 2019 at 09:23 AM (#5908401)
Eric Bledsoe would clearly be in Milwaukee's top 4. I'd 100% take him over BroLo too. Bled can have shooting/confidence problems in the playoffs, but he's closing in on 1.5 years of all-star level basketball and he's only getting paid like 18/year.


I think this is crazy, because Lopez is a near-elite rim protector and a major reason their defense is so good.
   1462. spivey Posted: December 13, 2019 at 09:46 AM (#5908405)
I think this is crazy, because Lopez is a near-elite rim protector and a major reason their defense is so good.


Bledsoe was first team all NBA defense last year - I'm not arguing he's a more valuable defender than Lopez, but he's a plus at a position where many players are sieves. I view him as also a reason their defense is so good. Lopez also has struggled to stay on the floor in the playoffs, which is one of my big knocks against him.
   1463. jmurph Posted: December 13, 2019 at 09:48 AM (#5908407)
Lopez also has struggled to stay on the floor in the playoffs, which is one of my big knocks against him.

Beat me to this. He was awful against Boston (which clearly didn't hurt the team much, but still), though really useful against a big team like Toronto. He'd obviously be really important against the Sixers, but I can't imagine him trying to hang with Davis in the Finals.
   1464. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: December 13, 2019 at 10:34 AM (#5908424)
How they come out of that stretch will determine just how ridiculous their record could get this year
.

Not necessarily. I think how much they rest Antetokounmpo, injuries, other stuff will be more definitive. Golden State losing after going 73-9 sent everybody a message about that IMO. My guess is that Milwaukee goes about 66-16.

Add: They get the Lakers at the end of the Lakers's trip, so I expect that they will win that game, although I think that James will want that one.
   1465. spivey Posted: December 13, 2019 at 10:52 AM (#5908437)
Not necessarily. I think how much they rest Antetokounmpo, injuries, other stuff will be more definitive. Golden State losing after going 73-9 sent everybody a message about that IMO. My guess is that Milwaukee goes about 66-16.


Sure, I don't think Milwaukee chases 70, and if they get it, it would be on the back of very strong performances from guys 5-12. I was referring more to 65+ as the high end. I could see them losing some more close games and ramping down and finishing closer to 60 wins too, though, similar to last year.
   1466. Rally Posted: December 13, 2019 at 10:52 AM (#5908438)
I think this is crazy, because Lopez is a near-elite rim protector and a major reason their defense is so good.


He is? Did I miss something in his year with the Lakers?

Looking at the on/off records, Lakers were worse defensively with Lopez on the court. His on/off numbers for the Bucks aren't much different.

Or do you mean Robin Lopez?
   1467. Tin Angel Posted: December 13, 2019 at 12:55 PM (#5908506)
Looking forward to Uncut Gems, a film starring Adam Sandler who plays a gambling-addicted Diamond District jeweler...and Kevin Garnett. Zach Lowe has a great piece on it here. Here's the trailer.
   1468. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: December 13, 2019 at 01:04 PM (#5908511)
Is that also why he throws his hands in the air and makes a face like he's been shot 9 times a game?
clearly, he does that because whenever he feels sharp pain, he subconsciously flashes back to when he was 7 years old and he had to go into the jungle on his own to kill a lion.

that's just obvious, isn't it?
Looking at the box score it seems like tharris is the straw that stirs the drink.
if he has more games like that, i might....start thinking of better players to trade him for.
   1469. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: December 13, 2019 at 01:06 PM (#5908512)
@Schragz
76ers since November 17 (NBA Rank)

Record: 12-2 (3rd)

Net Rating: +9.6 (4th)

Def Rating: 102.0 (2nd)

Off Rating: 111.6 (7th)
   1470. aberg Posted: December 13, 2019 at 02:04 PM (#5908525)
Uh oh. Peaking too early.
   1471. smileyy Posted: December 13, 2019 at 04:30 PM (#5908578)
Speaking of peaking early, is it too early to talk about how the two highest PERs (as flawed of a stat that is) in history are being posted so far this season? I imagine those will decline throughout the decline of the season, and also we're lookig at some seriously great performances this season.
   1472. smileyy Posted: December 13, 2019 at 05:20 PM (#5908589)
*grind of the season
   1473. Booey Posted: December 13, 2019 at 05:36 PM (#5908593)
#1471 - Whether it's PER, or Harden's scoring, or Westbrook's triple doubles, we're in the NBA version of a sillyball era where formerly standout offensive performances are now commonplace and just can't be compared straight up with past generations.
   1474. aberg Posted: December 13, 2019 at 05:43 PM (#5908595)
#1471 - Whether it's PER, or Harden's scoring, or Westbrook's triple doubles, we're in the NBA version of a sillyball era where formerly standout offensive performances are now commonplace and just can't be compared straight up with past generations.


I would chalk that up to a phase three of analytic integration into basketball. Phase one was the database-driven, rigorous study of the game. Phase two was those students getting associated with teams. Phase three is finding ways for coaches and players to adopt those strategies and tactics. I think improved data visualization has played a major role in the transition from 2 to 3.

It's inevitable that the league eventually tweaks its rules to address some of the extremes, but I don't yet know what those tweaks will be. Pro basketball has always been subject to pretty wide variation in statistical output. Look at the rebound numbers from the 60s or the shot blocking in the 80s.
   1475. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: December 13, 2019 at 08:44 PM (#5908617)
#1471 - Whether it's PER, or Harden's scoring, or Westbrook's triple doubles, we're in the NBA version of a sillyball era where formerly standout offensive performances are now commonplace and just can't be compared straight up with past generations.

i don't really see this as some "sillyball" era, though. there's nothing artificial fueling these performances* (allegedly); it's just the continued development of skill and athleticism, of workout habits and film study, of tactics and analytics.

what we're seeing isn't a blip, or a peak; it's just one point on a curve that we can only view in one direction (backwards).



*i was referring to steroids, but if you want to argue that the early 00s rule changes (handchecking, illegal defense, or going back a bit further, the 3P line) make it impossible to compare previous generations...i just don't buy that at all. it might be a bit harder and it might require additional consideration, but it's not going to be that difficult.
   1476. spivey Posted: December 13, 2019 at 10:16 PM (#5908623)
Wasn't the league pretty fast paced during the 80s? I also think it was during the Oscar Robertson era? I remember that coming up when LeBron was having some ridiculous years with the Cavs in his first stint where I saw some analytics articles that adjusted for pace LeBron was putting up better stats than Oscar during his triple double year.

I don't know that much needs to be adjusted - I am open to hearing stuff about where the 3 point line is, though I don't have a problem with the pace. I think a lot of this is that many of us grew up during a slow paced, and frankly crappy era of basketball.
   1477. Booey Posted: December 13, 2019 at 10:20 PM (#5908625)
#1475 - I didn't necessarily mean there was something artificial about it*, but I also don't really think the reasons behind it matter. Like in baseball, whether the sillyball eras were caused by 'artificial' means like juiced balls and PED's, or if hitting talent simply far outweighed pitching talent, just the fact that there WERE so many big offensive seasons makes them less impressive than a similar season in a less hitter happy era.

Triple Doubles, for example, jumped the shark for me years ago. Whatever the reason(s), they're just so much more common now than they used to be, and that makes them less impressive.

* Although as we talked about earlier in the week, I DO think there's something a bit artificial about Harden's scoring and Westbrook's triple doubles. They're simply trying much harder to get those numbers - with full complicity from their teams - than most players do.
   1478. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: December 13, 2019 at 10:41 PM (#5908628)
Horcats just beat the Bulls 83-73. In 2019.
   1479. Tin Angel Posted: December 13, 2019 at 11:30 PM (#5908631)
Utah had way too tough of a time at home putting away a completely depleted Warriors lineup tonight (didn't even have Draymond).
   1480. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: December 14, 2019 at 12:18 AM (#5908649)
Hell of a game in Minneapolis tonight.
   1481. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: December 14, 2019 at 12:19 AM (#5908651)
JEFF ####### TEAGUE
   1482. Booey Posted: December 14, 2019 at 01:38 AM (#5908659)
#1479 - Yep. But at this point, I'll take any win, regardless of how unimpressive the circumstances. And their current two (!) game winning streak feels like their longest in ages.

As usual, one major problem was the bench, who combined for 12 pts on 2/13 shooting in 65 horrible minutes. All the starters scored in double figures on an efficient 35/66 shooting. And Bogey's 8 threes tied a franchise single game record that's somehow stood for 25 years (Hornacek in 1994. Also tied by Rodney Hood in 2016).
   1483. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: December 14, 2019 at 10:06 AM (#5908670)
it's just the continued development of skill and athleticism, of workout habits and film study, of tactics and analytics.


Why are these benefiting the offense more than the defense?
   1484. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: December 14, 2019 at 05:39 PM (#5908738)
Why are these benefiting the offense more than the defense?
offense has the initiative, whereas defense tends to be reactionary in nature.

additionally, offenses can dictate matchups and switches in a way that compounds their advantage in initiative.

defenses tend to only be as strong as their weakest link, whereas offenses can hide their zazas, if necessary.

and then, while defenses also rely heavily on individual capability, many other factors (scheme, communication, awareness) can compromise their effectiveness. otoh, offenses can get by with relatively simple isolation sets or pick and roll sets that reduce their corresponding risk factors.
   1485. spivey Posted: December 14, 2019 at 09:16 PM (#5908753)
I would also argue that defenses had already became way more modern in the last 15ish years with the switching and rotations. Though I also think there are more shortcuts or weak links you can have on the floor while implementing a strong analytics offense that you can't have on defense, there's just way more spatial understanding and split second decisions needed. Harden is unique, but take him and Houston's offense as an example. Putting 3 point shooters who just hang out around the 3 point line and space the floor doesn't generally require those guys to need to be able to a whole lot of complex things. In most situations their decision is stay out of the way, or catch and shoot, or maybe if they're feeling wild, catch and attack the basket on an aggressive close out.

Edit: If anything, I think there's a fair question to ask on why it took offenses so long to be more innovative. But you can ask similar questions in football and baseball. There's definitely more data being gathered today, but in hindsight it certainly seems like we had enough data to make it obvious that teams didn't play the shift enough in baseball. There's a lot of risk averse people.
   1486. Howie Menckel Posted: December 14, 2019 at 10:08 PM (#5908755)
in hindsight it certainly seems like we had enough data to make it obvious that teams didn't play the shift enough in baseball. There's a lot of risk averse people.

I'm not sure of the answer, but is there evidence that baseball shifts have actually worked - or at least, worked significantly enough to be worth the effort? could be the wrong thread for that, though :)
   1487. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: December 14, 2019 at 11:57 PM (#5908757)
I think also a lot of it is the generational evolution of players following the introduction of the 3 point line (which is responsible for most of the scoring increase). When the line was first introduced it was a gimmick and no one shot a lot of 3s, because nobody had grown up shooting 3s and it seemed weird to them the way that all new technology does to people set in their ways. Then, you saw the evolution of 3 point specialists, where good shooters started practicing and getting good at 3s. As that became more prevalent as a visible archetype, then more and more people started shooting 3s early in life and growing up with the 3 as part of their native vocabulary.

Finally, the gravity from spreading the floor with 3 point shooters allowed for the rise of the 2-on-2 P&R and the iso scorer because it because harder and harder to help off people, and people with those skills became more valued -- leading once again to, for instance, people who in a previous era would have been traditional 5s either learning to shoot 3s or learning to playmake in the 4-on-3 from trapping the P&R because those became the most important skills.

All of this takes time, because it requires a shift in the skill set of the players in the league; phase 1 of a change is for existing players to train those skills, but you really get somewhere when kids grow up practicing them and they become secondhand.

   1488. tshipman Posted: December 15, 2019 at 06:11 PM (#5908860)
#1471 - Whether it's PER, or Harden's scoring, or Westbrook's triple doubles, we're in the NBA version of a sillyball era where formerly standout offensive performances are now commonplace and just can't be compared straight up with past generations.


I've been thinking about this a lot as well.

1. I think the increasing usage of the 3p shot drives a lot of this. The driving lane is more spaced, and it's harder and harder to bring a hard double.
2. I think at least some of this is the officiating. The NBA wants stars, and to an extent, seeing guys put up huge point numbers makes the guys doing it a bigger star.
3. Some of this is coaching/analytics. In times past, you would have gotten benched if you turned it over 5 times in a game. However, analytics has revealed that a guy like James Harden actually lowers turnovers, despite a high personal total.
   1489. Booey Posted: December 15, 2019 at 07:54 PM (#5908876)
#1488 - I think the changes in how games are officiated is certainly part of it. You're basically not allowed to guard players on 3-pt attempts anymore without being called for a foul. I personally think they need to revise their "landing space" rule and make it only apply when the shooter goes straight up and down. I'd also go back to the old rule of 2 free throws for a shooting foul on a 3 (they could change it to 3 in the last 2 minutes of the game or something).

Speaking of standout offensive performances, looks like there's going to be less of them for a few weeks with Luka sidelined...
   1490. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: December 15, 2019 at 08:40 PM (#5908884)
The Lakers shoot terribly (5-31) from 3, and gave up a couple of wiiiiiiiide open looks from 3 at the end of the game, but still manage to win another one. They're now 14-0 away from Staples Center.
   1491. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: December 16, 2019 at 10:45 AM (#5908941)
Any juicy gossip from the Woj/Lowe show yesterday?
   1492. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: December 16, 2019 at 11:17 AM (#5908955)
#1488 - I think the changes in how games are officiated is certainly part of it. You're basically not allowed to guard players on 3-pt attempts anymore without being called for a foul. I personally think they need to revise their "landing space" rule and make it only apply when the shooter goes straight up and down.

That's a good point. I remember Reggie Miller and Ray Allen had mastered the art of shooting over tight defense by making 3s while jumping straight up and down in the same spot. Now that's not necessary.
   1493. jmurph Posted: December 16, 2019 at 11:18 AM (#5908956)
Any juicy gossip from the Woj/Lowe show yesterday?

Only interesting thing I saw is they think the Pelicans might eventually make Jrue and Redick available.
   1494. Booey Posted: December 16, 2019 at 12:09 PM (#5908982)
If the Pelicans are having a fire sale with their vets, I'll happily take Derrick Favors back. The only contracts the Jazz have available to trade to match salaries though would be Dante Exum and Ed Davis, and I doubt they'll be able to sell NOP on Exum's potential when A) he's finally healthy, B) the Jazz bench has been terrible, but C) they still don't think he's worth playing.
   1495. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: December 16, 2019 at 01:22 PM (#5909002)
Jrue's on-off, so damn good the last two years, has been mediocre this year (-1.9 right now driven by -5.4 on the defensive end). I haven't dug in to try to figure out what's going on, you can imagine a myriad of explanations, but we're at the point where the sample is worth noting.
   1496. spivey Posted: December 16, 2019 at 01:31 PM (#5909007)
Jrue's on-off, so damn good the last two years, has been mediocre this year (-1.9 right now driven by -5.4 on the defensive end). I haven't dug in to try to figure out what's going on, you can imagine a myriad of explanations, but we're at the point where the sample is worth noting.


He ended up shooting quite well against Milwaukee in the game last week. But in the first half he just wasn't competing, in general but especially on defense. I was excited to see him in person and was kind of shocked. He seemed pretty upset with the AD trade demand IIRC and with Zion being out and the team being out of the playoff race this year, I just got the sense of someone kind of mailing it in. Maybe it's something else, though.
   1497. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: December 16, 2019 at 01:51 PM (#5909016)
This is a point that's been made periodically this season, but... Milwaukee's SRS is now +12.3. Not only would this be the best all time, but ... the four other teams to exceed +11 all won titles easily. The '71 Bucks went 12-2 in the playoffs, the '96 Bulls went 15-3, the '72 Lakers went 12-3, and the '17 Warriors went 16-1. None of these teams ever faced an elimination game.

We'll see how much regression to the mean brings them down -- they still need to play to an SRS above 10 for the rest of the season to finish with +11 overall, and only 11 teams have exceeded +10 for a full season -- but if they do manage to end up here, it's pretty lofty company.
   1498. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: December 16, 2019 at 02:07 PM (#5909026)

If the Pelicans are having a fire sale with their vets, I'll happily take Derrick Favors back. The only contracts the Jazz have available to trade to match salaries though would be Dante Exum and Ed Davis, and I doubt they'll be able to sell NOP on Exum's potential when A) he's finally healthy, B) the Jazz bench has been terrible, but C) they still don't think he's worth playing.


I really wish this would happen too, but I think the Jazz aren't even allowed to re-acquire him this season unless he goes to another team first.
   1499. aberg Posted: December 16, 2019 at 05:06 PM (#5909095)
He ended up shooting quite well against Milwaukee in the game last week. But in the first half he just wasn't competing, in general but especially on defense. I was excited to see him in person and was kind of shocked. He seemed pretty upset with the AD trade demand IIRC and with Zion being out and the team being out of the playoff race this year, I just got the sense of someone kind of mailing it in. Maybe it's something else, though.


Wolves have been connected to every PG who is or might eventually be available. Of the names I've heard, I'd be most excited to get Jrue. He'd be an outstanding partner for KAT on both ends.
   1500. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: December 16, 2019 at 05:11 PM (#5909097)
Wolves have been connected to every PG who is or might eventually be available. Of the names I've heard, I'd be most excited to get Jrue. He'd be an outstanding partner for KAT on both ends.

God almighty yes.
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