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Saturday, August 19, 2023

OT Soccer - World Cup Final/European Leagues Start

Soccer is being played.

Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: August 19, 2023 at 09:42 PM | 301 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off topic, soccer

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   1. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: August 19, 2023 at 09:43 PM (#6139080)
There is important soccer at 6AM eastern tomorrow morning.
   2. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: August 19, 2023 at 09:53 PM (#6139081)
Too bad Americans stopped watching last week.
   3. Howie Menckel Posted: August 19, 2023 at 09:59 PM (#6139082)
as I noted in the other thread, my pre-tournament pick of Spain for 5 bucks would net me a $23 profit if they indeed win - feel free to adjust your rooting interests accordingly !

I guess I'll tape it.
   4. Mefisto Posted: August 20, 2023 at 01:11 AM (#6139087)
Anyone who thinks Mason Mount can play soccer has not seen him with United this year.

Thanks to Jose for the new thread.
   5. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: August 20, 2023 at 06:29 AM (#6139092)
I guess I'll tape it.

"Grandpa, what's 'taping'?"
"Shaddup...!"
   6. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 20, 2023 at 08:04 AM (#6139095)
Hard for the refs to make any other call on that handball. The defender really has to know better in the age of VAR. But saved!

Spain has been the best team in the tournament, and deserves the trophy.
   7. SoSH U at work Posted: August 20, 2023 at 10:45 AM (#6139102)
Anyone who thinks Mason Mount can play soccer has not seen him with United this year.


Did United see him with Chelsea?

I didn't understand that signing.
   8. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: August 20, 2023 at 01:10 PM (#6139105)
I chose well; I woke up for the WC Final which was an extremely entertaining game. Then I went back to bad and missed the Everton game.

Did United see him with Chelsea?


I wouldn't assume anything that happened at Chelsea in the last 18 months or so to be a clear indicator of anything. Basically since Abramovich got booted things have been pretty screwy.
   9. Howie Menckel Posted: August 20, 2023 at 03:54 PM (#6139108)
tough day for amateur DVR-ers - just taping the prescribed 2-hour window would have gotten you 11 minutes of 'extra time.' but you'd have missed the last 3 minutes of the 13-minute window.

Viva La Roja ! that's a very enjoyable squad to watch, and the English side was just obnoxious enough to produce added enjoyment.

:)
   10. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: August 20, 2023 at 06:18 PM (#6139115)
Spain has been the best team in the tournament, and deserves the trophy.


Except when Japan smoked them 4-0 in the group stage! Spain ended up playing the best in the end and thoroughly deserved the trophy, but holy smokes what a rough start. As an Australian, I can assure that after watching Spain last night, if the Aussies had made the final, Spain's midfield would have absolutely crushed ours and beaten us something like 3-0.
   11. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: August 20, 2023 at 08:37 PM (#6139125)
Except when Japan smoked them 4-0 in the group stage!

That game was super weird. The final score is a blowout, obviously, but that really, really oversells things. Japan had 7 shots on goal, 5 on target, and scored 4 goals. xG for those shots was 0.98 (Spain had 1.15). Japan had 23% possession... I mean, credit to them for pulling it off, but I still have no idea how they did it.
   12. KronicFatigue Posted: August 20, 2023 at 09:35 PM (#6139129)
What's the deal with the controversy over the Spanish women's team? I saw some spanish official kiss a player on the mouth (he may have done that with several players?), and that lead to some comments about how the coach is insane and players tried to get him fired but couldn't. Is there one good article on the subject?
   13. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 21, 2023 at 12:09 PM (#6139157)
Right, the Spanish team didn't play every game without flaws, obviously, but Japan got every break and more in that game, which was very close except for the goals. Spain was great in every other game, mostly dominating them from start to finish. 3 very decent opponents as well in Netherlands, Sweden and England.

Just judging on absolute performance and not relative to expectation, no other team had the same level of performance on the field in this tournament. The best other candidates are the USA and Brazil, but they only played 4 games and 3 games respectively. England came in second but seldom looked good this tournament against mostly weak competition. Sweden and Japan were decent but not consistently great over their games too. Australia lucked into a semi-final spot and were good overall but nothing special. Germany couldn't dominate weaker opponents when they needed to and went out. France was maybe second best against Brazil but won anyway, and then proceeded to let a weaker Australia take them to penalties where they lost.

Based on performance on the field Spain was not a perfect champion by any means, but rarely does the trophy winner perform at or above expectation in every game. Spain in this tournament was as good as you are likely to see a champion perform. Major caveat in that they avoided the USA of course, but it's also not rare for the champion to dodge the favorite (e.g., both of the last 2 men's champions didn't face the favorite Brazil).
   14. Howie Menckel Posted: August 21, 2023 at 12:22 PM (#6139160)
well, the U.S. team went scoreless in their last 300 minutes - aka, 5 hours. let's not turn them into a juggernaut.
   15. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 21, 2023 at 12:38 PM (#6139161)
It was "just" 240 minutes, during which time they had quite a few good looks on goal. They also gave up no goals and allowed very few chances over that period. Certainly though they did still underperform.

The bigger point is they would have been significant favorites against any other team in the tournament, including the two finalists. Maybe not a "juggernaut", but at least for this tournament still more of one than anything you would see in the men's game today. The ret of the world is still catching up though, so maybe that won't still be true in 4 years.

I'm not a USWNT fan by any means, but still I recognize that even underperforming a bit puts them merely at a level of the other very best teams in the world.
   16. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: August 21, 2023 at 01:19 PM (#6139165)
What's the deal with the controversy over the Spanish women's team?


Basically, the senior team has had the same head coach for the last 8 years, a period during which women's football has undergone serious change and professionalization in Spain. They have something of a golden generation coming through, which had won a lot of the tournaments for younger players, and after bombing out of the Euros a lot of these players thought that the coach was, to put it bluntly, an amateur with no idea what he was doing. More than half the team revolted last fall -- I think 15 players made a noisy exit? -- and only a few of them have been re-admitted.

There have always been hints that there was some form of interpersonal strife going on behind the scenes, but everybody has been somewhat disappointingly discreet for those of us out here in the cheap seats with our popcorn. Anyway, depending on who you ask, it's either a bunch of entitled jocks who can't take instruction, or part of a broader labor movement in worldwide women's football that has produced things like equal pay for the USWNT and better facilities for the women's pro league in England. As usual, it's probably some of both.
   17. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 21, 2023 at 04:19 PM (#6139183)
On that Arsenal penalty the offensive player had no hope of recovering the ball. His only intention was to touch it before the inevitable contact with the keeper (which was fairly light though very clear with Nketiah's foot left in to make sure there was contact).

I'd be happier if those were not given as penalties. Once Nketiah committed to the play to draw contact there was no chance that was going to be a goal. In other words, the only way Nketiah was getting to the ball first is by reaching for it in a way that made a goal all but impossible. There was basically no subset of that play that resulted in a goal.

To be fair these plays are given as penalties way more often than not, and never overturned on review. Still, with the contact now supposedly needing to be more than incidental maybe there is an avenue to making these non-penalties.
   18. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 21, 2023 at 04:28 PM (#6139188)
Well that second yellow against Tomiyasu seemed really soft, unless I missed something on the replay.

It was a potential breakaway so as long as there was something intentional by Tomiyasu to slow down the play that would have been enough for me, personally. I didn't seven see that though.
   19. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: August 21, 2023 at 08:14 PM (#6139222)
Because the Peacock app for Amazon TV is a dumpster fire, I was unable to actually watch the Arsenal-Palace match I waited all weekend for, and saw only the highlights. I agree that the Nketiah penalty was given due to a rule that might need some rethinking, but the rule is what it is right now and the man made the right play once it was clear he wasn't going to be able to score on the pass.

All in all, winning 1-0 at Palace with the only goal coming on a penalty is not what I'd call a convincing victory. I know it's only two weeks, but I'm starting to get barfy feelings about this season. City is City, of course, and Newcastle has looked pretty great, despite that they lost at the Ethiad.
   20. Baldrick Posted: August 22, 2023 at 07:32 AM (#6139259)
What's the deal with the controversy over the Spanish women's team?

Basically everything that Voxter said.

I can maybe add a little bit, as someone who does not have access behind the scenes, but does know some folks who have a bit of that access. I've heard some hints about abusive behavior (calling players ugly/fat/etc.) and some suggestions about playing favorites. I have NOT heard suggestions that this has taken the form of sexual abuse (as it is for all too many male coaches) but I also would not be surprised.

Ultimately, Vilda is (in the very nicest description I can offer) a mediocre coach, while the squad is one of the best couple in the world. There were efforts behind the scenes for YEARS to get them to bring in a new coach. Which went nowhere so they ultimately staged the walkout. And then the federation basically doubled down and said 'no we value him more than you.'
   21. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: August 26, 2023 at 02:11 PM (#6139595)
Dropping points at home on bonehead plays for fun and profit -- the Arsenal Way!
   22. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: August 26, 2023 at 02:12 PM (#6139596)
What is the soccer equivalent of a TOOTBLAN? Saka committed one for the ages this morning. Ugh.
   23. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Fred Posted: August 26, 2023 at 05:51 PM (#6139618)
It's a shame Gaston Avila doesn't play for Aston Villa.
   24. jmurph Posted: August 27, 2023 at 12:21 PM (#6139687)
What is the soccer equivalent of a TOOTBLAN? Saka committed one for the ages this morning. Ugh.

TAA seems to have been inspired by this.
   25. bestergonomicgamingchair.com Posted: August 27, 2023 at 12:57 PM (#6139689)
And then the federation basically doubled down and said 'no we value him more than you.'


And then Rubiales thought, "Wait a moment (whilst grabbing his crotch), that's MY MUSIC they're playing ... HOLD MAH BEER!"

How do you go from winning the WWC FOR THE FIRST TIME to being an international example of a clown show of a trainwreck ... in a week?
   26. jmurph Posted: August 27, 2023 at 01:25 PM (#6139691)
That is a dreadful game from Newcastle.
   27. SoSH U at work Posted: August 27, 2023 at 01:36 PM (#6139692)
That is a dreadful game from Newcastle.


That's the worst loss of the Howe era. Brutal.
   28. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: August 27, 2023 at 06:04 PM (#6139710)
Funny, I had to turn it off at halftime when they were up 1-0, and I had spent the day thinking, "Well, another reason to take Newcastle seriously."
   29. bestergonomicgamingchair.com Posted: August 28, 2023 at 08:45 AM (#6139762)
This continues to get more bizarre ...

The mother of Spain’s embattled football chief, Luis Rubiales, has reportedly shut herself in a church in southern Spain and declared herself to be on a hunger strike over what she described as the “inhumane and bloodthirsty hunt” of her son.

The decision by Ángeles Béjar to lock herself into a 19th-century church is the latest twist in a saga that has gripped Spain for the past week after her 46-year-old son grabbed the Spanish forward Jenni Hermoso by the head and planted a kiss on her lips during the World Cup medal ceremony.
   30. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 28, 2023 at 10:11 AM (#6139766)
19th-century church
All the relevant details.
   31. bestergonomicgamingchair.com Posted: August 28, 2023 at 03:45 PM (#6139799)
All the relevant details.


I figure anyone who followed international football and had a pulse was aware of the details, so ...

Anyone ... not to be outdone ... the RFEF decided that Luis Rubiales is the hill they want to die on ...

The Spanish football federation (RFEF) has asked Uefa to suspend it from international competitions because of government interference over demands to remove its beleaguered president, Luis Rubiales, from office.

The shock move was widely seen as an attempt to silence some of Rubiales’ critics, including government ministers who have asked for his removal. Such a suspension would ban Spanish teams from competitions like the Champions League and could sway public opinion in favour of letting Rubiales, who is also a Uefa vice-president, remain in his post.

Football’s governing bodies have long-standing rules barring national governments from interfering with the running of the domestic federations. However, Uefa will not comply with the RFEF’s request for a sanction, a person familiar with the issue told The Associated Press on Monday.
   32. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: August 28, 2023 at 07:18 PM (#6139822)
I guess I don't know if the women's international game resembles the men's in this way, but I wonder how many of those players are eligible for a one-time nationality switch due to ancestry / residency / whatever. If this was done without thinking through the consequences, it could be a big gift to some other sides.
   33. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 28, 2023 at 08:50 PM (#6139824)
3 weeks into the season already, and Messi going off in miami, and still more posts about women’s soccer than men’s in this thread.
   34. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: August 28, 2023 at 09:00 PM (#6139826)
I mean, they did just have their world cup. And Messi kicking the #### out of MLS semi-pros ain't exactly news.
   35. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 30, 2023 at 10:53 AM (#6139981)
All credit to the women of course for putting on a compelling tournament, but this was mostly a comment on how slow this thread has gotten even with a new season rolling around.

The Messi thing does not interest me, personally, so I haven't been following it. I'm actively avoiding anything from Saudi Arabia.

I just saw Spurs are out of the league cup too. That means they could have very few games this year--maybe the least in a long time. Even 2009-2010 where they were not in Europe they had a fair number of league and FA cup games. Probably have to go back to the early 2000s.
   36. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 30, 2023 at 11:48 AM (#6139988)
Rubiales has also been condemned for other actions during the celebrations after Spain beat England in Sydney, including grabbing his crotch, kissing other players and carrying another over his shoulder, but the incident with Hermoso is the subject of the legal case.
There seems to be enough momentum now to remove Rubiales. It probably helps that he seems totally incapable of even acting repentant.
   37. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 31, 2023 at 10:21 AM (#6140080)
The Champions League 32 are set, and draw happens soon. Pre-draw odds:
city           30.5

bayern         14.5
real madrid    10.5
arsenal         7.5
barcelona       5.5
psg             5.5

united          4
newcastle       3.5
napoli          3
inter           2.5
atleti          2.5
mlan            2
dortmund        1.5
leipzig         1
benfica         1

sevilla         0.75
lazio           0.75
porto           0.75
sociedad        0.75
berlin          0.5
feyenoord       0.3
lens            0.2

field           1

The team to avoid is Newcastle in pot 4 and to a lesser extent Milan in pot 3. Teams to aim for in pots 1 and 2: Sevilla, Feyenoord, and Porto.
   38. kubiwan Posted: August 31, 2023 at 12:51 PM (#6140101)
The team to avoid is Newcastle in pot 4 and to a lesser extent Milan in pot 3


So, of course, they end up in the same group, along with PSG and Dortmund. Good luck to all there!
   39. jmurph Posted: August 31, 2023 at 12:51 PM (#6140102)
This is the toughest group I can remember: PSG, Borussia Dortmund, AC Milan, Newcastle United

EDIT: coke
   40. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 31, 2023 at 01:28 PM (#6140106)
PSG nabbed both Newcastle and Milan, so that's the group of death. The only break they got was that Dortmund was one of the weaker teams in Pot 2, but hardly a pushover.

eidt: put another way, Dortmund got pretty much the worst possible draw they could get. Stick them with Newcastle, and Milan, and that puts city (and bayern) off the table. The only thing that would have been worse for them is getting real madrid rather than psg.
   41. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: August 31, 2023 at 08:37 PM (#6140227)
Arsenal and City both seem to have had pretty lucky draws. Though of course Arsenal contrived to lose to Sporting last year in European play, so who knows.
   42. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: September 03, 2023 at 01:34 PM (#6140394)
I think I had three different heart attacks during injury time in that Arsenal-United match. Yowza.
   43. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 08, 2023 at 10:45 AM (#6140735)
Sancho's first game with United my main concern was the kid looked out of shape and overweight. He was only 21. His stats at Dortmund were off the charts but surprisingly there was not a ton of interest except from United, which also made me worried. Then he was very underwhelming in his first few games and often looked lazy and sometimes off the pace, which made me even more worried.

Individual player stats are very important in soccer, but let's face it this is not baseball. Stats within one system or league don't always translate that well to another, and when stat darlings that get relatively low attention from teams there are often good reasons for that.

Another rule of thumb is that when United is the only real bidder for a player, he is probably well overrated.
   44. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: September 08, 2023 at 05:46 PM (#6140789)
I've been sort of wondering about that, the way stats translate between leagues. For a long time there was a CW in baseball that some guys were just AAAA sluggers, who feasted on bad pitches to bat 300 and crack 30 homers in Round Rock or whatever. One of the things that changed a lot about how the game was played in the early 2000s is that people like Beane and Epstein took to heart the sabermetric idea that this was nonsense, and that most guys who could hit in the minors would hit in the majors. See, e.g., Kevin Youkilis &c.

There remains a CW in England that certain players just can't hack it in the Premier League. More, uh, conscientious commentators maintain that this is just because the style of play is different. But the clear lay understanding is that English football is faster and tougher, and that therefore little guys like Iniesta or slow guys like Kroos should stick to Spain and Germany. Many, many Gooners scoff at the idea that Fabio Vieira will ever be anything but a super sub in England, because he's just too small and frail. Thus, Arsenal must continue to trot out Kai Havertz as his career appears to be falling apart due to the footballing equivalent of Steve Blass Syndrome.

This strikes me as -- potentially -- a load of old tosh. As though we were selling jeans here, to paraphrase a certain GM whose #### didn't work in the playoffs. Well, guess what? Football doesn't have playoffs! Maybe this kind of insight could work?

Or not. But it seems at least like it's worth some analysis.
   45. Mefisto Posted: September 09, 2023 at 08:45 AM (#6140833)
43 is right. Now apply that to Mason Mount. And note that Sancho has been better than Mount this season.
   46. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: September 09, 2023 at 06:13 PM (#6140869)
England - Ukraine. One of the most brutally uninteresting soccer matches I've ever seen, and emblematic of everything I dislike about international football. I didn't even have the heart to watch the USA match after that.
   47. jmurph Posted: September 11, 2023 at 08:40 AM (#6141003)
England - Ukraine. One of the most brutally uninteresting soccer matches I've ever seen, and emblematic of everything I dislike about international football. I didn't even have the heart to watch the USA match after that.

I was joking to my friend that not only is Jordan Henderson not currently good enough to start for England, he has never at any time in his career been good enough to start for England. So then I thought about it seriously for a minute and it (the 2nd part) might actually be true? They did go through a bit of a rough patch in central midfield for a while so there might have been a brief time he was in the team on merit.

You can't always play your best 11- rotation, health, etc.- but I'm very confident you don't need a Jordan Henderson type in a team with Rice and Bellingham.
   48. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 11, 2023 at 09:57 AM (#6141007)
It doesn't help that England had virtually qualified already before the game. I know I'm in the minority on this, but I prefer smaller tournaments with more difficult qualifying rounds.
   49. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 11, 2023 at 05:46 PM (#6141051)
United moved on from Pogba too late, but earlier than they usually do. Could have been much worse for them.

I think it's a combination of not scouting players well (for ability and/or attitude) and then handing them huge contracts. It's a toxic combination where they usually get burned, at least over the last 10 years or so. The exceptions like Bruno really stand out because they seem so rare.
   50. Mefisto Posted: September 11, 2023 at 06:21 PM (#6141054)
I think there are 2 reasons for that. One is that there doesn't seem to be any one person in charge, so they get pulled in different directions. The other is that they have no real analytics team to say "hey, this person isn't actually doing what you want".
   51. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: September 11, 2023 at 06:26 PM (#6141055)
o then I thought about it seriously for a minute and it (the 2nd part) might actually be true? They did go through a bit of a rough patch in central midfield for a while so there might have been a brief time he was in the team on merit.


It's clearly true now -- I think their best midfield in a 4-3-3 is probable Rice-Stones-Bellingham, all of whom are better now than Henderson ever was. Maybe Foden if you don't want to play him off the wing. I was looking at their historical roster, and Henderson clearly couldn't hang with Gerrard and Lampard, who were still with the team for the first several years Henderson was around.

I don't exactly make a study of the England national team except around the time of big tournaments, but there was a time when, whatever he was doing, he was impressing the hell out of some very successful managers. He captained Liverpool through Klopp's best years. But he's pretty clearly coasting now on a pre-covid rep that he doesn't really deserve anymore.
   52. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: September 11, 2023 at 06:29 PM (#6141056)
The exceptions like Bruno really stand out because they seem so rare.


I was recently made aware that there is a huge contingent of United fans who think he sucks. Then I went by the United subreddit and it was freaking toxic about everybody, but especially Ten Hag and Bruno F. It's one of the most outlandish case of blaming your best player for every flaw in the side I've seen in a long time. I mean, what team in the premiere league wouldn't kill to have him on their side at this point? With de Bruyne out, even City would be starting him. Maybe only Arsenal wouldn't. But these guys think he's the reason the tea isn't winning every match 5-0. A common criticism is (no joke) "he runs too much." What?
   53. Mefisto Posted: September 16, 2023 at 12:10 PM (#6141535)
Very impressive performance by BHA today. Only time I've seen them this season but they look a top 3 team.
   54. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: September 16, 2023 at 12:58 PM (#6141537)
I only got to see the second half, but I enjoyed myself capitally. I agree, if this isn't just a run of luck they'll be in the champions league next year for sure.
   55. bestergonomicgamingchair.com Posted: September 16, 2023 at 03:10 PM (#6141545)
Spurs vs Sheffield was 90 minutes of frustration followed by 10 minutes of blissful, delightful time-wasting payback.
   56. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: September 17, 2023 at 06:06 PM (#6141619)
So the Arsenal has truly established a pattern: dominate possession, win by one, worry the #### out of all their supporters.

At least there were no comedy goals this week.
   57. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 19, 2023 at 01:24 PM (#6141768)
I've been watching this Milan/Newcastle game with one eye while I work. Without paying a whole lot of attention, admittedly, it seems hard to believe the game is still level.
   58. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 19, 2023 at 01:51 PM (#6141770)
Newcastle actually has had more of the possession at the half, but are getting slaughtered in every other way except for on the scoreboard. Unless the second half is dramatically better for them, even a draw here would be hugely fortunate and a great result relative to what they would have earned.
   59. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 19, 2023 at 02:00 PM (#6141771)
Five minutes into the second half and Newcastle has already doubled their shots.

You have to love these players. First, Schar puts a high elbow into the back of a Milan player, but "can't believe it" when the foul is called against him (and deservedly a yellow to boot). Then the Milan player reacts in disbelief when called for a play near midfield where he was holding back the Newcastle dribbler for a prolonged time with handfuls of jersey, on what was a mini-breakaway. Should have been a yellow too IMHO, though those are too seldom given as cautions.

Hard to believe any ref would take anything a player says seriously...
   60. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 19, 2023 at 02:33 PM (#6141778)
For a lot of the second half the game was fairly even. Hasn't been the last 10-15 minutes though. Newcastle is barely hanging on. A draw today would be a huge coup, and even if they lose by 1 they can consider themselves fairly lucky.
   61. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: September 19, 2023 at 03:23 PM (#6141788)
Newcastle has looked bad so far this year. Much worse than I anticipated with the addition of Tonali. A 0-0 draw in that match was extremely lucky.
   62. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: September 19, 2023 at 03:30 PM (#6141789)
I'm surprised and a little bit disappointed by the way Dortmund is approaching this game. PSG has had 70% of possession and Dortmund has basically just parked the bus. I get that they seem to shed a great player every summer, but I was looking for a little more progression and open play.

Then again, it seems to be working (so far), so what do I know.
   63. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 19, 2023 at 04:13 PM (#6141796)
This site has the Newcastle game at 2.58-0.22.
   64. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 19, 2023 at 04:56 PM (#6141798)
No surprise results today in the CL. The favorites coming in all won except maybe Milan (at home, a slight favorite I think) That bodes poorly for group stage excitement.

edit: oops, Atleti gave up a late equalizer on the road. Still they were likely only slight favorites on the road to Lazio, so that's not really an upset of any kind either.
   65. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 19, 2023 at 05:18 PM (#6141800)
I know it puts me in the minority, but without the away goals rule I am a lot less interested in first legs of 2-game ties. Why? Because watching the first leg is truly like watching the first half of a game now rather than its own separate game. All that matters is the goal margin at the end--the score itself is irrelevant. That lowers the stakes a lot for example in a game like the Milan/Newcastle game. The ends of soccer games are usually by far the best part, with the most action etc. Now we only have one end to the tie instead of two ends to separate games.
   66. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 19, 2023 at 06:43 PM (#6141810)
I guess that's a strange comment to make when we are still in the group stage...
   67. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 19, 2023 at 10:18 PM (#6141824)
That Lazio goal was on the last kick (head) of the game, on a nicely timed run and perfect cross, glanced in expertly off the head of the Lazio keeper.
   68. jmurph Posted: September 20, 2023 at 07:49 AM (#6141851)
I haven't thought it through all the way, but the table set-up they're going with in the Champions League starting next year looks like it will be better than the current group stage. I'm sure there's some downside I haven't thought of- it probably reduces the chances of a team from a smaller league going through, for example- but given how boring much of the group stage typically is hopefully it's an improvement.
   69. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 20, 2023 at 11:25 AM (#6141860)
The group stage next year will be even longer and won't eliminate any teams of note, so in that sense it will be even more boring. It will affect seeding though, so maybe that will help a little. I tend to doubt it--even in the current setup teams haven't always been super focused on winning their group to get a better path through the KOs.
   70. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 20, 2023 at 12:20 PM (#6141864)
Teams 1-8 get a bye, while teams 9-24 play an extra game, and teams 25-36 get eliminated. The bubble teams at the bottom have no real shot, and making a KO stage with 24 teams means less than making one with 16 teams. There may be some minor bit of excitement with teams playing for the bye versus having to go through another round, but past experience tells me fans and teams both will not value the bye as much as they should, which will temper a lot of the excitement.

I'm not optimistic. Personally don't care about top teams facing each other in games with little leverage, so if we have a few more of these than we have under the current system that won't do much for me.
   71. jmurph Posted: September 20, 2023 at 12:46 PM (#6141870)
It's not really a group stage, though, it's basically a league that will be sorted (as you note) into the various places. I don't know, I think it changes things up a bit and is hopefully an improvement.
   72. Stevey Posted: September 20, 2023 at 01:25 PM (#6141872)
We don't need a fifth (and possibly sixth or seventh) English or Spanish team, and since its not actually a Swiss Format, I'm not sure the additional games will have a higher proportion of "meaningful" games than the previous format.

I also personally think that instead of the bottom teams not dropping to Europa League, they should have gone the other way - every team that makes the group stage, or whatever its going to be called now, is guaranteed football into the new year, even if some go to the Conference League.
   73. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 20, 2023 at 01:39 PM (#6141873)
As has been often noted, this revised format really mostly benefits the top teams by giving them more games with a lower likelihood of being eliminated early. Looked through that lens it all makes (mostly) perfect sense. In most other ways it seems to be worse.
   74. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: September 20, 2023 at 01:52 PM (#6141874)
As has been often noted, this revised format really mostly benefits the top teams by giving them more games with a lower likelihood of being eliminated early.


Another way in which European football is a perverse yet accurate microcosm of real life in the 21st century. The rich get richer, everybody else is just happy to be here and should thank their lucky stars for that much.
   75. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 20, 2023 at 02:45 PM (#6141880)
Real Madrid got the last second winner at home over a stubborn but not very good Union. Huge result! But not really, because 2 dropped points for Madrid in this group and 1 extra point for Union is very unlikely to make the difference. So, yawn I guess.
   76. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 20, 2023 at 03:02 PM (#6141881)
Bayern is very heavily favored to win (outright) this game. 67%. Other than Arsenal/PSG it's the biggest mismatch (by odds) currently in play. Part of that is HFA of course, and injuries.
   77. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 20, 2023 at 03:09 PM (#6141883)
And, if United really struggles in this group (and this year generally--jury's still out), they probably caught a break with the early game. Copenhagen was up 0-2 on the road to Galatasaray, where a road win really could make a difference for them. Then a Copenhagen player was sent off with a second yellow and the game ended in a draw after two late goals the other way.
   78. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: September 20, 2023 at 03:45 PM (#6141886)
I was misinormed by the paramount app as to when these games started, so I clocked in at about 30 minutes to find Arsenal up 2-0. When Jesus took it to 3-0, I switched to the other game I was interested in, United-Bayern . . . which was also 2-0 to the favorites. Not exactly the scintillating day of football I was hoping for.

Maybe the Napoli game is interesting?
   79. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 20, 2023 at 04:18 PM (#6141890)
United didn't play that badly actually and are pretty unlucky to be down by 2 goals. Still, there's no doubt it is a mismatch.
   80. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: September 20, 2023 at 04:53 PM (#6141894)
Luckily, Braga-Napoli has been pretty fun.
   81. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 20, 2023 at 04:57 PM (#6141895)
Not exactly a tour de force by Bayern, who only managed to win 4-3. Was it fun? Not really, because every time United pulled within 1, Bayern immediately went ahead by 2 again, and the last time Untied did it was the last kick of the game.
   82. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: September 20, 2023 at 04:58 PM (#6141896)
Braga just banged one off the post with 4 seconds left in injury time. That would have pulled out a surprising 2-2 draw.
   83. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 20, 2023 at 05:13 PM (#6141899)
Honestly Bayern kind of looked bored for much of the game, but I wouldn't be happy with that performance if I were them. Against a depleted United at home they gave up a lot of chances and got a little lucky on a couple of their goals. Maybe if they don't have a 2-goal lead for more than an hour it plays out differently, but arguably United's best spell was the first 25 minutes of the game when Bayern did not have the lead, so I'm not actually sure about that.

Not a great game for United either really, though there were some positives. A 4-3 loss on the road though to Bayern is really not bad at all for their group prospects.
   84. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: September 20, 2023 at 08:15 PM (#6141916)
Given how bad they've looked against both Arsenal and Brighton, I'm surprised they kept it that close.
   85. I am going to be Frank Posted: September 21, 2023 at 09:11 AM (#6141936)
United's midfield is utter crap. Playing a midfield three of Casemeiro, Eriksen and Bruno against good teams is a recipe for disaster. Eriksen has value against teams sitting deep, but he's so immobile and unathletic it just leaves United's defense vulnerable. Casemeiro used to be able to cover for that, but with all the mileage on him, it leads to way too many defensive breakdowns.
   86. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 21, 2023 at 09:59 AM (#6141937)
Yeah it was hard to watch this game and get a good feeling about United. People were already rightly down on them though so that's not really new information. I was pretty disappointed in Bayern though and based on this one game anyway my expectations for them have been reduced.

Way too early to say anything about Bayern really though. They have beaten up on the weak teams in the Bundesliga but had a disappointing home draw against Leverkusen.
   87. Mefisto Posted: September 21, 2023 at 11:27 AM (#6141946)
I thought (a) Bayern could easily have scored more (speaks poorly of United); and (b) United might have snatched an undeserved point if not for Onana's howler.
   88. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 21, 2023 at 12:13 PM (#6141952)
While all that is true, Bayern only had 1.5 or so xG without the penalty (less than United). They were massive favorites at home but did not really play like it, and certainly not with the kind of ruthlessness and control you would have expected coming into the game.
   89. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: September 21, 2023 at 01:29 PM (#6141959)
Much though a nearly invincible Bayern makes for more interesting European football, it would be nice if their iron grip on the Bundesliga would weaken. As it is I find the entire league kind of pointless except as a breeding ground for prospects.
   90. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 21, 2023 at 03:15 PM (#6141964)
AEK had an absolutely perfect header off a corner from 15 yards out. Totally unmarked (to AEK's credit running the play), but still that header is not an easy skill.
   91. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 21, 2023 at 04:29 PM (#6141974)
All 4 EPL teams that have played today in these lesser competitions have trailed in their games. Liverpool came back strong on the road, but Villa ended up losing. Brighton has come back twice now but only due to two penalties. West Ham currently trails.

Not exactly bringing their best...
   92. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 21, 2023 at 04:46 PM (#6141976)
Brighton trails yet again!! They are also in one of the hardest group so a home loss would be fairly disastrous.

West Ham has turned it around finally. They are at home against a team I have never heard if before, so that's the least they can do.
   93. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: September 21, 2023 at 05:31 PM (#6141982)
I'm genuinely shocked that Brighton lost. I had them as strong favorites to win the Europa League, given that they certainly look like one of England's best three at the moment. It could just be one of those things, but wow.

I think I probably would have ranked it like this:

field 60%
Brighton 30%
Liverpool 10%

I know that defies the official odds, but Brighton seems like a significantly better team than Liverpool at the moment.
   94. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 21, 2023 at 08:47 PM (#6141998)
Before today Brighton was given the second best odds to win Europa, but it was still well below 10%. Now basically level for second best odds with Roma and Leverkusen, at around 5%. Liverpool is close to 25%.

Betting odds still has Brighton as the 8th best team in the premier league going forward. Well behind Arsenal and Liverpool, behind Newcastle, United, and Tottenham, and it appears slightly behind Chelsea as well. They are bigger favorites than United and Chelsea (but not Newcastle) to finish top 4 (about 30%), but that is due to points booked so far, not expectation going forward.

I too think they are being underrated, but if you look at xG stats over the last year alone they would probably be overrated.

And, this was really a terrible game by them. They gave up 11 shots and some were good looks for AEK, at home no less. The two penalties were solid calls but a better team than AEK probably avoids giving them up. non-pen xG was even. AEK was clinical with finishing while Brighton got none other than the penalties, but it wasn't exactly a fluke--AEK created chances most of the night despite having no possession.
   95. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 22, 2023 at 09:25 AM (#6142016)
By elo, that was Brighton's worst loss in a long time. AEK rates out as below Luton...maybe mid-level Championship team. Brighton is still 7th in the league in elo, behind the usual suspects except Chelsea.

Chelsea is matching their lowest total of the last 25 years, and have dropped out of the top 25 (behind Villa, Brentford, and West Ham too, so in the bottom half of the league). The last time they had a lower rating was back in the late 90s.
   96. jmurph Posted: September 22, 2023 at 09:28 AM (#6142017)
Chelsea is matching their lowest total of the last 25 years, and have dropped out of the top 25 (behind Villa, Brentford, and West Ham too, so in the bottom half of the league). The last time they had a lower rating was back in the late 90s.

Related:
Mirror Football @MirrorFootball
Chelsea have won just 7 games in all competitions in 2023
   97. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 22, 2023 at 10:13 AM (#6142018)
A loss at home is not a wise start for Brighton in Europa. It could have been worse though. AEK is probably the worst team in the group, so even with the win are likely to finish behind Brighton. Ajax are probably third best in the group and could only manage a home draw. So, if they had to lose a game at home that was the day to do it.

On the other hand, it's not often that a team loses a CL or EL group game at home against an inferior team and still advances, but it did happen twice in the CL last year, where Frankfurt and Leipzig both advanced despite bad losses at home. Last year Frankfurt lost badly to Sporting (arguably not actually inferior) 0-3 in the first group stage game, and still advanced in the group due to returning the favor in the last group game, but only by a scoreline of 1-2 (coming from behind to pull it off as well).

Leipzig also lost badly in the first group stage game 1-4 to vastly inferior Shakhtar. Unlike Frankfurt, Leipzig only needed a draw back at Shakhtar in game 6 to advance. This one had no drama though, as Leizpig crushed them 0-4.

If I had to guess, I'd say if Brighton advances now it will probably come down to the last game of the group back in Greece, but they will still probably do it fairly comfortably.
   98. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 22, 2023 at 12:09 PM (#6142025)
City has been incredible, and were at their highest elo ever until the twin losses by Brighton and Villa took them down quite a bit on league adjustment.

Realistically they have not dropped any points since February of last year in games they were trying to win. That stretch includes includes 6 draws and a loss, but: 2 were glorified exhibitions (draws in Supercup and Community Shield), 2 were when City had wrapped up the league in May (draw against Brighton and loss against Brentford), and three were in the champions league knockouts (two first-leg away draws to Leipzig and Real Madrid where they won comfortably at home in the second leg, and 1 second-leg away draw to Bayern where City already had the tie won by the first-leg home performance).
   99. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 24, 2023 at 10:36 AM (#6142152)
Chelsea went down a man to a red and are now likely to lose again, this time at home against Villa.
   100. jmurph Posted: September 24, 2023 at 12:11 PM (#6142157)
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