|
|
|
Support BBTF
Thanks to Adam M for his generous support.
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.
Hot Topics
Newsblog: Yankees' status quo under Brian Cashman resulted in 'disaster' season, and a fresh perspective is needed (9 - 12:56pm, Sep 25)Last: DL from MNNewsblog: Betts sets 'remarkable' record with 105 RBIs as a leadoff hitter (1 - 12:47pm, Sep 25)Last: BrianSox Therapy: Over and Out (40 - 12:16pm, Sep 25)Last: The Mighty QuintanaNewsblog: As Padres’ season spirals, questions emerge about culture, cohesion and chemistry (49 - 11:41am, Sep 25)Last: Mr. Hotfoot Jackson (gef, talking mongoose)Newsblog: OT Soccer - World Cup Final/European Leagues Start (110 - 11:25am, Sep 25)Last:  jmurphNewsblog: OT - NBA Off-Pre-Early Thread for the end of 2023 (7 - 11:16am, Sep 25)Last: Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album.Newsblog: OT - 2023 NFL thread (9 - 10:04am, Sep 25)Last: Howie MenckelNewsblog: Qualifying Offer Value To Land Around $20.5MM (15 - 9:23am, Sep 25)Last: DL from MNNewsblog: Site Outage Postponed (106 - 9:10am, Sep 25)Last:  Nasty NateNewsblog: Ex-Nats reliever Sean Doolittle exits after '11 incredible seasons' (4 - 7:32am, Sep 25)Last: Steve Parris, Je t'aime Newsblog: Omnichatter for September 2023 (520 - 11:43pm, Sep 24)Last:  DFANewsblog: Oakland vs. the A's: The inside story of how it all went south (to Las Vegas) (40 - 8:18pm, Sep 24)Last: Howie MenckelNewsblog: Republicans propose $614M in public funds for Brewers' stadium upgrades (36 - 6:03pm, Sep 24)Last: base ball chickNewsblog: Is It Time to Stop Using Scripts on Sports Uniforms? (19 - 4:55pm, Sep 24)Last: base ball chickNewsblog: Left-handed hitters describe the craft of hitting lefty pitching (2 - 12:25pm, Sep 24)Last: McCoy
|
|
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
I guess I'll tape it.
Thanks to Jose for the new thread.
"Grandpa, what's 'taping'?"
"Shaddup...!"
Spain has been the best team in the tournament, and deserves the trophy.
Did United see him with Chelsea?
I didn't understand that signing.
I wouldn't assume anything that happened at Chelsea in the last 18 months or so to be a clear indicator of anything. Basically since Abramovich got booted things have been pretty screwy.
Viva La Roja ! that's a very enjoyable squad to watch, and the English side was just obnoxious enough to produce added enjoyment.
:)
Except when Japan smoked them 4-0 in the group stage! Spain ended up playing the best in the end and thoroughly deserved the trophy, but holy smokes what a rough start. As an Australian, I can assure that after watching Spain last night, if the Aussies had made the final, Spain's midfield would have absolutely crushed ours and beaten us something like 3-0.
That game was super weird. The final score is a blowout, obviously, but that really, really oversells things. Japan had 7 shots on goal, 5 on target, and scored 4 goals. xG for those shots was 0.98 (Spain had 1.15). Japan had 23% possession... I mean, credit to them for pulling it off, but I still have no idea how they did it.
Just judging on absolute performance and not relative to expectation, no other team had the same level of performance on the field in this tournament. The best other candidates are the USA and Brazil, but they only played 4 games and 3 games respectively. England came in second but seldom looked good this tournament against mostly weak competition. Sweden and Japan were decent but not consistently great over their games too. Australia lucked into a semi-final spot and were good overall but nothing special. Germany couldn't dominate weaker opponents when they needed to and went out. France was maybe second best against Brazil but won anyway, and then proceeded to let a weaker Australia take them to penalties where they lost.
Based on performance on the field Spain was not a perfect champion by any means, but rarely does the trophy winner perform at or above expectation in every game. Spain in this tournament was as good as you are likely to see a champion perform. Major caveat in that they avoided the USA of course, but it's also not rare for the champion to dodge the favorite (e.g., both of the last 2 men's champions didn't face the favorite Brazil).
The bigger point is they would have been significant favorites against any other team in the tournament, including the two finalists. Maybe not a "juggernaut", but at least for this tournament still more of one than anything you would see in the men's game today. The ret of the world is still catching up though, so maybe that won't still be true in 4 years.
I'm not a USWNT fan by any means, but still I recognize that even underperforming a bit puts them merely at a level of the other very best teams in the world.
Basically, the senior team has had the same head coach for the last 8 years, a period during which women's football has undergone serious change and professionalization in Spain. They have something of a golden generation coming through, which had won a lot of the tournaments for younger players, and after bombing out of the Euros a lot of these players thought that the coach was, to put it bluntly, an amateur with no idea what he was doing. More than half the team revolted last fall -- I think 15 players made a noisy exit? -- and only a few of them have been re-admitted.
There have always been hints that there was some form of interpersonal strife going on behind the scenes, but everybody has been somewhat disappointingly discreet for those of us out here in the cheap seats with our popcorn. Anyway, depending on who you ask, it's either a bunch of entitled jocks who can't take instruction, or part of a broader labor movement in worldwide women's football that has produced things like equal pay for the USWNT and better facilities for the women's pro league in England. As usual, it's probably some of both.
I'd be happier if those were not given as penalties. Once Nketiah committed to the play to draw contact there was no chance that was going to be a goal. In other words, the only way Nketiah was getting to the ball first is by reaching for it in a way that made a goal all but impossible. There was basically no subset of that play that resulted in a goal.
To be fair these plays are given as penalties way more often than not, and never overturned on review. Still, with the contact now supposedly needing to be more than incidental maybe there is an avenue to making these non-penalties.
It was a potential breakaway so as long as there was something intentional by Tomiyasu to slow down the play that would have been enough for me, personally. I didn't seven see that though.
All in all, winning 1-0 at Palace with the only goal coming on a penalty is not what I'd call a convincing victory. I know it's only two weeks, but I'm starting to get barfy feelings about this season. City is City, of course, and Newcastle has looked pretty great, despite that they lost at the Ethiad.
Basically everything that Voxter said.
I can maybe add a little bit, as someone who does not have access behind the scenes, but does know some folks who have a bit of that access. I've heard some hints about abusive behavior (calling players ugly/fat/etc.) and some suggestions about playing favorites. I have NOT heard suggestions that this has taken the form of sexual abuse (as it is for all too many male coaches) but I also would not be surprised.
Ultimately, Vilda is (in the very nicest description I can offer) a mediocre coach, while the squad is one of the best couple in the world. There were efforts behind the scenes for YEARS to get them to bring in a new coach. Which went nowhere so they ultimately staged the walkout. And then the federation basically doubled down and said 'no we value him more than you.'
TAA seems to have been inspired by this.
And then Rubiales thought, "Wait a moment (whilst grabbing his crotch), that's MY MUSIC they're playing ... HOLD MAH BEER!"
How do you go from winning the WWC FOR THE FIRST TIME to being an international example of a clown show of a trainwreck ... in a week?
That's the worst loss of the Howe era. Brutal.
I figure anyone who followed international football and had a pulse was aware of the details, so ...
Anyone ... not to be outdone ... the RFEF decided that Luis Rubiales is the hill they want to die on ...
The Messi thing does not interest me, personally, so I haven't been following it. I'm actively avoiding anything from Saudi Arabia.
I just saw Spurs are out of the league cup too. That means they could have very few games this year--maybe the least in a long time. Even 2009-2010 where they were not in Europe they had a fair number of league and FA cup games. Probably have to go back to the early 2000s.
The team to avoid is Newcastle in pot 4 and to a lesser extent Milan in pot 3. Teams to aim for in pots 1 and 2: Sevilla, Feyenoord, and Porto.
So, of course, they end up in the same group, along with PSG and Dortmund. Good luck to all there!
EDIT: coke
eidt: put another way, Dortmund got pretty much the worst possible draw they could get. Stick them with Newcastle, and Milan, and that puts city (and bayern) off the table. The only thing that would have been worse for them is getting real madrid rather than psg.
Individual player stats are very important in soccer, but let's face it this is not baseball. Stats within one system or league don't always translate that well to another, and when stat darlings that get relatively low attention from teams there are often good reasons for that.
Another rule of thumb is that when United is the only real bidder for a player, he is probably well overrated.
There remains a CW in England that certain players just can't hack it in the Premier League. More, uh, conscientious commentators maintain that this is just because the style of play is different. But the clear lay understanding is that English football is faster and tougher, and that therefore little guys like Iniesta or slow guys like Kroos should stick to Spain and Germany. Many, many Gooners scoff at the idea that Fabio Vieira will ever be anything but a super sub in England, because he's just too small and frail. Thus, Arsenal must continue to trot out Kai Havertz as his career appears to be falling apart due to the footballing equivalent of Steve Blass Syndrome.
This strikes me as -- potentially -- a load of old tosh. As though we were selling jeans here, to paraphrase a certain GM whose #### didn't work in the playoffs. Well, guess what? Football doesn't have playoffs! Maybe this kind of insight could work?
Or not. But it seems at least like it's worth some analysis.
I was joking to my friend that not only is Jordan Henderson not currently good enough to start for England, he has never at any time in his career been good enough to start for England. So then I thought about it seriously for a minute and it (the 2nd part) might actually be true? They did go through a bit of a rough patch in central midfield for a while so there might have been a brief time he was in the team on merit.
You can't always play your best 11- rotation, health, etc.- but I'm very confident you don't need a Jordan Henderson type in a team with Rice and Bellingham.
I think it's a combination of not scouting players well (for ability and/or attitude) and then handing them huge contracts. It's a toxic combination where they usually get burned, at least over the last 10 years or so. The exceptions like Bruno really stand out because they seem so rare.
It's clearly true now -- I think their best midfield in a 4-3-3 is probable Rice-Stones-Bellingham, all of whom are better now than Henderson ever was. Maybe Foden if you don't want to play him off the wing. I was looking at their historical roster, and Henderson clearly couldn't hang with Gerrard and Lampard, who were still with the team for the first several years Henderson was around.
I don't exactly make a study of the England national team except around the time of big tournaments, but there was a time when, whatever he was doing, he was impressing the hell out of some very successful managers. He captained Liverpool through Klopp's best years. But he's pretty clearly coasting now on a pre-covid rep that he doesn't really deserve anymore.
I was recently made aware that there is a huge contingent of United fans who think he sucks. Then I went by the United subreddit and it was freaking toxic about everybody, but especially Ten Hag and Bruno F. It's one of the most outlandish case of blaming your best player for every flaw in the side I've seen in a long time. I mean, what team in the premiere league wouldn't kill to have him on their side at this point? With de Bruyne out, even City would be starting him. Maybe only Arsenal wouldn't. But these guys think he's the reason the tea isn't winning every match 5-0. A common criticism is (no joke) "he runs too much." What?
At least there were no comedy goals this week.
You have to love these players. First, Schar puts a high elbow into the back of a Milan player, but "can't believe it" when the foul is called against him (and deservedly a yellow to boot). Then the Milan player reacts in disbelief when called for a play near midfield where he was holding back the Newcastle dribbler for a prolonged time with handfuls of jersey, on what was a mini-breakaway. Should have been a yellow too IMHO, though those are too seldom given as cautions.
Hard to believe any ref would take anything a player says seriously...
Then again, it seems to be working (so far), so what do I know.
edit: oops, Atleti gave up a late equalizer on the road. Still they were likely only slight favorites on the road to Lazio, so that's not really an upset of any kind either.
I'm not optimistic. Personally don't care about top teams facing each other in games with little leverage, so if we have a few more of these than we have under the current system that won't do much for me.
I also personally think that instead of the bottom teams not dropping to Europa League, they should have gone the other way - every team that makes the group stage, or whatever its going to be called now, is guaranteed football into the new year, even if some go to the Conference League.
Another way in which European football is a perverse yet accurate microcosm of real life in the 21st century. The rich get richer, everybody else is just happy to be here and should thank their lucky stars for that much.
Maybe the Napoli game is interesting?
Not a great game for United either really, though there were some positives. A 4-3 loss on the road though to Bayern is really not bad at all for their group prospects.
Way too early to say anything about Bayern really though. They have beaten up on the weak teams in the Bundesliga but had a disappointing home draw against Leverkusen.
Not exactly bringing their best...
West Ham has turned it around finally. They are at home against a team I have never heard if before, so that's the least they can do.
I think I probably would have ranked it like this:
field 60%
Brighton 30%
Liverpool 10%
I know that defies the official odds, but Brighton seems like a significantly better team than Liverpool at the moment.
Betting odds still has Brighton as the 8th best team in the premier league going forward. Well behind Arsenal and Liverpool, behind Newcastle, United, and Tottenham, and it appears slightly behind Chelsea as well. They are bigger favorites than United and Chelsea (but not Newcastle) to finish top 4 (about 30%), but that is due to points booked so far, not expectation going forward.
I too think they are being underrated, but if you look at xG stats over the last year alone they would probably be overrated.
And, this was really a terrible game by them. They gave up 11 shots and some were good looks for AEK, at home no less. The two penalties were solid calls but a better team than AEK probably avoids giving them up. non-pen xG was even. AEK was clinical with finishing while Brighton got none other than the penalties, but it wasn't exactly a fluke--AEK created chances most of the night despite having no possession.
Chelsea is matching their lowest total of the last 25 years, and have dropped out of the top 25 (behind Villa, Brentford, and West Ham too, so in the bottom half of the league). The last time they had a lower rating was back in the late 90s.
Related:
On the other hand, it's not often that a team loses a CL or EL group game at home against an inferior team and still advances, but it did happen twice in the CL last year, where Frankfurt and Leipzig both advanced despite bad losses at home. Last year Frankfurt lost badly to Sporting (arguably not actually inferior) 0-3 in the first group stage game, and still advanced in the group due to returning the favor in the last group game, but only by a scoreline of 1-2 (coming from behind to pull it off as well).
Leipzig also lost badly in the first group stage game 1-4 to vastly inferior Shakhtar. Unlike Frankfurt, Leipzig only needed a draw back at Shakhtar in game 6 to advance. This one had no drama though, as Leizpig crushed them 0-4.
If I had to guess, I'd say if Brighton advances now it will probably come down to the last game of the group back in Greece, but they will still probably do it fairly comfortably.
Realistically they have not dropped any points since February of last year in games they were trying to win. That stretch includes includes 6 draws and a loss, but: 2 were glorified exhibitions (draws in Supercup and Community Shield), 2 were when City had wrapped up the league in May (draw against Brighton and loss against Brentford), and three were in the champions league knockouts (two first-leg away draws to Leipzig and Real Madrid where they won comfortably at home in the second leg, and 1 second-leg away draw to Bayern where City already had the tie won by the first-leg home performance).
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main