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Saturday, August 19, 2023

OT Soccer - World Cup Final/European Leagues Start

Soccer is being played.

Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: August 19, 2023 at 09:42 PM | 321 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off topic, soccer

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   101. jmurph Posted: September 24, 2023 at 12:13 PM (#6142158)
Chelsea went down a man to a red and are now likely to lose again, this time at home against Villa.

In my most gleeful of fever dreams even I couldn't imagine things going this badly for them.

   102. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 24, 2023 at 01:16 PM (#6142161)
This is the second biggest road margin of victory in the premier league after the Leicester one over Southampton a few years ago (0-9). Was even with United over Forest back in 1999 until that 8th goal, but now alone for second.
   103. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 24, 2023 at 01:32 PM (#6142163)
You can't give up 8 goals without being very "unlucky" on the defensive end. Still, the 17 goals now given up by Sheffield United aren't exactly an unfair representation of how they have played on the field so far this year. Their defense has been horrible. By xGA they were already worst on a per-game basis before the game today, and their schedule had not been especially difficult.
   104. SoSH U at work Posted: September 24, 2023 at 01:33 PM (#6142164)
Newcastle had eight different goal scorers in the 8-0 victory.
   105. bestergonomicgamingchair.com Posted: September 24, 2023 at 01:41 PM (#6142165)
In my most gleeful of fever dreams even I couldn't imagine things going this badly for them.


Poch is going to need a bigger bowl of lemons.

Poch is what makes this hard, since I still love the goofus, no matter how much I do NOT love Chelsea.
   106. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: September 24, 2023 at 01:47 PM (#6142167)
Jesus, I fell asleep in front of the TV after the derby, and genuinely believed that I had dreamed some of those goals. I assumed my brain had turned a normal, 4-0 blowout into a nonstop goal fest for Newcastle.

The North London derby was fun, if frustrating. Started off looking like Arsenal might just grind away yet another 2-0 victory by relentlessly controlling possession. Unfortunately for the Gunners but luckily for the viewers, Spurs had more life in them than that.

Of course, yet another comedy goal cost them the win, in the end. If this Rice injury is anything more than a temporary thing, things could get real bad at the Emirates. Jorginho is not the player he once was, Partey is hurt and not good enough anyway, and an Arteta offense without a good pivot is not an offense at all.
   107. jmurph Posted: September 25, 2023 at 09:54 AM (#6142190)
Robert O'Connor @robert_oconnor_
Chelsea's points-per-game over the last 35 matches (three short of a full season) is 0.8.

That would get you relegated in every single Premier League season and have you finish bottom (or joint bottom) in 1997, 1998, 2005, 2009, 2011, 2014, 2015 and 2018.
   108. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 25, 2023 at 10:54 AM (#6142193)
A defender making his body bigger by using his arms in anticipation of a pass (or sometimes shot) coming his way is the classic case for a handball penalty. In such cases, whether it deflects off another body part of the defender first is usually not that relevant.

Contrast this with situation where a defender trying to actively play the ball (and not just block it) or the ball being played in a completely unexpected way where the defender was not actually attempting to make a block at all. A deflection by the defender onto an outstretched arm probably shouldn't be a penalty.

The penalty in the Luton games seems very appropriate to me.
   109. Mefisto Posted: September 25, 2023 at 11:12 AM (#6142195)
So was the penalty on Romero correct?
   110. jmurph Posted: September 25, 2023 at 11:25 AM (#6142197)
So was the penalty on Romero correct?

I can't believe this one is even controversial, very obvious penalty to me.
   111. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 25, 2023 at 01:20 PM (#6142205)
I can't seem to find video of it right now, but to me if a player is actively going for a block of a shot, then there should be very little leeway over where his hands are. "Natural" position should be interpreted very narrowly. Contrast this where a player is not expecting the ball to be played where it is or is actually trying to play the ball (and not just block a shot). I think Romero's play was a situation where the player was primarily going for the block.

Actually, here it is: https://dubz.co/c/4d3f1c. Penalty seems like the right call to me.
   112. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 25, 2023 at 01:25 PM (#6142208)
Here is the "other" Romero non-call against United. This also could very easily have been a penalty, but seems slightly less egregious. Position on the field and arm position are both slightly less penalty-like on this one.

To me they are both penalties, but if you squint you can see why VAR overturned one and not the other. No way VAR overturns either of them if they are called penalties on the field (which neither were).
   113. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 25, 2023 at 02:17 PM (#6142212)
Romero cannot keep diving into blocks with his arms up and out. He's going to be called for a lot of penalties if he does that.
   114. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 25, 2023 at 05:22 PM (#6142225)
On these clear attempts by defenders to use their body to block shots, proximity to the kicker should not be a factor (as many fans have noted). Oliver and VAR using that as an excuse in the United non-call is embarrassing. The whole point of diving in with your body is to get as close as the shooter to create as much of a barrier as possible. If doing so causes the shot to hit an outstretched arm, proximity should be completely irrelevant.

Again, this is completely different from a situation where a player is trying to play or control the ball, and not just get in its way, or was not expecting the ball to come at him at all and has no time to get out of the way. In those plays there is generally no deliberate attempt to make the body bigger in order to block the shot, so it's a lot easier to say the play was not "deliberate" (in rule book parlance).

Note that in all of these cases I am assuming there is no actual intent to have the ball hit the arm, as I am assuming Romero would also have preferred it did not (in both games) due to the risk of handball being called.
   115. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: September 25, 2023 at 09:47 PM (#6142250)
I listen to a podcast called The Rest Is Football, hosted by Gary Lineker, with regular guests Alan Shearer and Micah Richards. (*One of these things is not like the others . . . *) The consensus between those three retired jocks is that the handball rule is completely broken and needs to be simplified -- that, in the attempt to make it perfect, the powers that be have made it impossible to administer or understand. I think there's some legitimacy to that.

On the whole, I recommend the podcast, for the following reasons:

(1) Shearer's foul-mouthed, Northern humor and bluntness.
(2) Lineker's Rain Man-like ability to remember every goal he ever scored and most of the goals he's ever seen.
(3) Richards' . . . well, Richards is a hyperactive pain in the butt, but he makes a good foil for the other two most of the time, and he does bring a defender's perspective to the game.

The show is a twice-weekly kind of catchall in which they discuss today's (most English, but also often Spanish) football, reminisce about weird and funny things from their careers, sometimes consider serious issues like gambling and gendered violence among athletes, and mostly have a fine old time reminiscing like the three aging jocks they are.
   116. jmurph Posted: September 26, 2023 at 08:15 AM (#6142268)
(3) Richards' . . . well, Richards is a hyperactive pain in the butt, but he makes a good foil for the other two most of the time, and he does bring a defender's perspective to the game.

I love Richards as a pundit- I'm biased as a Manchester City fan, but I think he's a lot of fun and generally pretty self-deprecating, which I appreciate. I think he has a good sense of how good he was and how good he was not, which can be rare among ex-players!
   117. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 26, 2023 at 11:47 AM (#6142295)
I agree with those guys that the handball rule is over-legislated and a mess, but strongly disagree with ALL of them that the call in the Luton game was bad. A player shouldn't be able to go into a block with their arms way out and expect that if the ball hits their hand it should not be a handball. To my mind that's an easy handball call.
   118. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 27, 2023 at 05:07 PM (#6142479)
That was City's first loss in a competitive game in more than 7 months.

Unrelatedly, I realize it's basically a meme at this point, but "Where's he supposed to put his arm" loses all meaning when applied to this play. The three guys on the podcast trotted that one out again.
   119. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 30, 2023 at 08:02 AM (#6142823)
Brighton has no idea what to do against Villa. 3-0 already and it has been as one-sided as the scoreline suggests.
   120. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 30, 2023 at 08:20 AM (#6142825)
Supposedly xG was almost even earlier, but it has been 1-way traffic. Halftime I think is 13 shots to 2, and Villa has looked far, far more dangerous.
   121. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 30, 2023 at 08:44 AM (#6142828)
Two very questionable calls, both led to goals. One each way though, so it evens out a bit.
   122. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 30, 2023 at 09:32 AM (#6142830)
The second half was fairly even, and this game was a LOT closer than the scoreline. Still, Villa was the better team and will surpass Brighton in the table now, and also in elo.
   123. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 30, 2023 at 09:48 AM (#6142831)
6 games start in 30 minutes. All are mismatches on paper. Closest by odds is Everton, with "only" a 58% chance to win against Luton. The premier league tries to isolate the closest and most interesting matches every week, and they certainly succeeded this week. All of Villa/Brighton, Tottenham/Liverpool, Forest/Brentford, and Fulham/Chelsea are significantly closer matchups by betting odds than the 6 happening now.

We could still get some good games though. If things go as expected, there would be 4 wins for he favorites out of 6, with 1 draw and 1 loss.
   124. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 30, 2023 at 10:51 AM (#6142838)
3 of the favorites are down at the half, including City.
   125. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: September 30, 2023 at 11:15 AM (#6142841)
These early games are killing me now that I'm back on West Coast time. I apparently slept through Arsenal's second goal v Bournemouth.
   126. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: September 30, 2023 at 11:19 AM (#6142843)
Villa beat BHA 6-1????????? Yowza.
   127. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 30, 2023 at 12:01 PM (#6142846)
3 of the 6 favorites lost, but none of the teams that beat them played particularly well. The xG in the City game should be particularly brutal.

edit: according to Fotmob and unerstat, that is not the case after all. City didn't even have any big chances, despite many shots in the box. Still a loss is very surprising based on the stats, but not nearly as surprising as the one in the Everton game, where it is hard to see how they lost based on the shots taken. United too can count themselves very unlucky not to at least get a draw, though even a draw would have been a big disappointment.
   128. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: September 30, 2023 at 12:10 PM (#6142847)
I turned on the City game just as they equalized and I thought, "Well, this is going to end up 3-1 like all their matches," and turned it off. The stats are pretty amazing, though. My favorite: City had 23 shots, 8 on target; Wolves had 3 shots, one on target.
   129. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 30, 2023 at 12:50 PM (#6142849)
Everton has only 4 points despite an easy schedule so far. They've been plenty good enough against the lesser teams in their schedule to have at least 3 or 4 wins though. What's been killing them is not finding the net despite tons of high xG chances. Happened again today.
   130. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 30, 2023 at 02:08 PM (#6142862)
Liverpool is playing with 9 men...

I guess Jota went hard into a tackle right after getting cautioned, so got a second one.
   131. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 30, 2023 at 05:42 PM (#6142889)
What the everloving ####?

The VAR incorrectly thought the onfield decision was "goal," quickly identified that Díaz was onside and told the onfield team "check complete" to confirm the goal. But when referee Darren England was told this, he understood the decision made by the assistant as being correct.

That meant that rather than the decision being changed to goal, it remained disallowed.

A statement issued by the referees' body read: "PGMOL acknowledge a significant human error occurred during the first half of Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool.

"The goal by Luiz Diaz was disallowed for offside by the on-field team of match officials. This was a clear and obvious factual error and should have resulted in the goal being awarded through VAR intervention, however, the VAR failed to intervene. PGMOL will conduct a full review into the circumstances which led to the error."

I saw the replay during the game and it looked like a good goal, but the VAR seemed so sure I just assumed they must have had a different angle that showed it was clearly off. Jesus.
   132. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: September 30, 2023 at 06:09 PM (#6142890)
VAR is so bad that you almost suspect the EPL higher ups are sabotaging it so they have an excuse not to pay for it in the future.
   133. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 02, 2023 at 01:26 PM (#6143130)
Chelsea is now behind Palace in elo (at clubelo). Next up, or down if you will, a Championship team, Leicester.

ok that's a little unfair because Leicester is better than all but a handful of Championship teams ever since the premier league first was created, but still.

Next after Leicester is Fulham. If Fulham beats Chelsea today they will be close to even with Chelsea in elo. Fulham is not good though (definitely not a .500 team), so don't count on it.
   134. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 02, 2023 at 06:29 PM (#6143186)
Antony is back in the United squad, eligible to be picked for this week's CL match. Did they learn nothing from the Greenwood debacle? Or is ten Hag really so pissed at Sancho that he'd rather run the risk of putting yet another woman beater out there?
   135. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 03, 2023 at 12:40 PM (#6143318)
Union held onto 0-0 until the dying moments of the Real Madrid game. Did they play well defensively, as the announcers keep saying? Not in the least. xG was a slaughter, with the final 3.7-0.2. It might have been the worst defensive performance of the group stage so far on an absolute basis (though admittedly on the road against one of the favorites, so almost certainly not if adjusted for context). The keeper did have 6 saves, so potentially he played well.
   136. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 03, 2023 at 01:39 PM (#6143325)
Union are not good. However, playing a team at their level or maybe even a little inferior than them, and at home too, allowed them to play their preferred style well. No possession, but the majority of the big chances until late in the first half.

I'd be pretty shocked if either of these teams advance.
   137. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 03, 2023 at 02:01 PM (#6143332)
Beautiful shot by Braga from way out (26 yards or so), on a corner kick routine. Announcer screams it was "just like they drew it up on the training ground. Hehe, I don't think so.

(The other announcer noted it was probably the first guy to touch the ball, and not the shooter, who the training ground play was designed for. That makes a little more sense. Another possibility is that the entire play was well further back up the field then it was originally designed to be.)
   138. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 04, 2023 at 01:51 PM (#6143493)
I am so, so glad I didn't have time to watch the CL games yesterday. So glad.

Anyhoozy, looking forward to seeing Newcastle v the new look PSG. All the rhetoric coming out of Parc de Princes sounds worthy and hopeful, but you never know with a club that's been a wildly successful basket case for a decade. I'll be interested to see how they play now that they have 9 guys who are actually willing to play both sides of the ball, though.
   139. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 04, 2023 at 04:30 PM (#6143511)
Welp, PSG looks completely outclassed. Not exactly what I expected.
   140. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 05, 2023 at 09:21 AM (#6143606)
Teams were even on shots and xG. Newcastle just basically scored all their shots. Didn't watch the game, so maybe Newcastle was a bit better than that overall, but they were also at home. I wouldn't write off PSG yet.
   141. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 05, 2023 at 12:29 PM (#6143625)
In the first half they just looked terrified by all the noise at St James. It made me wonder if they ever face that kind of atmosphere on the road in France.
   142. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 05, 2023 at 01:39 PM (#6143639)
Brighton is dwon 2-0 at the half, and are being outplayed by Marseille. It's not nearly as bad as the scoreline would suggest though, and this is the hardest game of the group stage. A loss here is not killer for Brighton at all, but it does dig the hole a little deeper.

Worse though, Ajaz is beating AEK on the road. If Ajax wins today on the road and Brighton loses, it will likely mean Brighton will need to go to Ajax on the last group day and win.

A good question is whether last year was Brighton's peak. The betting odds think they won't match that season again, that's for sure, and with their resources it is hard to imagine they can compete at the highest levels of the premier league and europe in the long term. Too early to say though if they are already coming down from their peak.
   143. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 05, 2023 at 01:57 PM (#6143645)
Brighton lost to AEK not Ajax last game (oops), so the win by Ajax is not as bad as it would otherwise be. Because of that, Brighton could potentially squeak through the group with just 8 points (win both remaining home games and draw both road games). Even 7 is conceivable.

2-1 now here. Another goal now could make a big difference.
   144. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 05, 2023 at 02:43 PM (#6143653)
A draw by Brighton and a draw by AEK against Ajax, and suddenly Brighton is in good shape in the group again. While they are behind in the table with this draw they might be favorites to actually win the group again.
   145. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 05, 2023 at 02:44 PM (#6143654)
West Ham is basically through now that they beat Freiburg on the road. Huge favorites to win the group too now.
   146. Mefisto Posted: October 07, 2023 at 01:14 PM (#6143800)
I'm not sure anyone would enjoy the first 92 minutes of the United game, but the last 3 were pretty exciting.
   147. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 07, 2023 at 03:44 PM (#6143822)
United are just not very good right now. Barely outplayed Brentford at home, and realistically all they deserved was a draw.

Sheffield United are absolutely awful, or at least have been so far this season. They have an xGD of around -17 and an xPoints of around 2.5. Both are the worst on record for a premier league team after 8 games (since people started keeping track of xG). It's not particularly close, either. Their schedule has been average difficulty too--not exceptionally hard. There is no way they can continue to be this bad, but it's still very difficult to see them staying up unless they get a lot better.

   148. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 07, 2023 at 04:38 PM (#6143832)
I'm starting to get nerves about tomorrow's Arsenal-City match. This feels like the biggest individual match Arsenal has played since . . . I don't know, away to Spurs in 2017? By the time the second City game rolled around last year, the club's form was middling and I don't think anybody really thought they had a shot at winning the match, let alone the league, anymore. There was no one game last year that was this freighted.

With City missing Rodri and de Bruyne and Saka meant to be healthy, I thin the match might actually be pretty even. It would be interesting if nobody was suspended and nobody was hurt; both teams are going into the game significantly diminished (Arsenal is missing Timber, Martinelli, possibly still Partey).

I'm trying to decide if wearing my Odegaard jersey is good luck or bad luck.
   149. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 07, 2023 at 04:48 PM (#6143833)
Betting odds thinks City is much better than Arsenal overall, and so do I. Game is in London though, so City is only a somewhat small favorite: 40% for City win, 32% for Arsenal win.
   150. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 07, 2023 at 05:22 PM (#6143839)
Yeah, if the game were in Manchester I wouldn't be holding out much hope. Or if Rodri were playing. Or any of a number of other things.
   151. Mefisto Posted: October 07, 2023 at 05:24 PM (#6143840)
United *aren't* very good right now. Some of that is a longstanding problem (failure to identify a right wing). Some is bad luck (the entire starting back 4 is out with injuries). So yeah, a win against Brentford counts as lucky.
   152. Mefisto Posted: October 07, 2023 at 05:24 PM (#6143841)
Deleted -- double post.
   153. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 07, 2023 at 06:27 PM (#6143846)
(failure to identify a right wing)


I still wonder what's going on with the Sancho thing. Clearly something has gone deeply wrong between him and ten Hag, but it's hard to know what it is from the outside. Barring the baggage, I still think he has the talent to be a solid right winger for a big club.
   154. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Fred Posted: October 08, 2023 at 04:51 AM (#6143895)
I was under the impression that the Sancho thing is somewhere in the same ballpark as the Dele fka-Alli thing, rather than issues with the manager, but maybe that was just UK press speculation?

(In the sense of mental health issues, generally, rather than abuse, specifically)
   155. Mefisto Posted: October 08, 2023 at 08:07 AM (#6143896)
According to 4-4-2, Sancho has been disciplined in the past -- for both Dortmund and England -- on several occasions for showing up late, breaking rules, conditioning, etc. Ten Hag is an extremely strict manager on this stuff, so it wouldn't be surprising if that kind of thing formed part of the dispute. I can't tell if Sancho has other issues such as mental health, but it's possible.

I wish they would settle their differences because United sure could use the player he was at Dortmund.
   156. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 08, 2023 at 11:25 AM (#6143899)
Saka is out, but apparently that was actually expected. Betting odds have not gotten worse for Arsenal--slightly better in fact.
   157. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 08, 2023 at 12:02 PM (#6143900)
Could easily have been a sending off on that challenge. Brighton should have a man sent off today for DOGSO no attempt to play the ball.

And now Kovacic (same player that could have been sent off) makes a clear yellow card foul but no card given. If Guardiola doesn't take him off at the half its managerial malpractice, since the refs should be looking for any opportunity to send him.
   158. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 08, 2023 at 12:06 PM (#6143901)
Newcastle has just 13 points, but at the moment have the best xGD in the league, and the most xPoints. They've also played a decently hard schedule. Way too early to write them out of a CL spot next year.
   159. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 08, 2023 at 01:31 PM (#6143902)
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

The way the match started I thought the Gunners were headed for another 4-1 humiliation at home. But no! They got their #### together, didn't let City dominate possession, and with a little good luck they pulled it out. Without Saka!

Not a beautiful game. Mostly a kind of grudge match, neither team playing their own kind of game. But what the hell. I'll take it.
   160. Mefisto Posted: October 08, 2023 at 01:33 PM (#6143903)
I guess a game that tactical had to end with a deflected goal. I sure would have preferred a game with Saka and Martinelli and DeBruyne and Rodri in the starting lineups.
   161. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 17, 2023 at 01:45 PM (#6144730)
I'm a bigger fan of international soccer than most here, but even for me this break has been fantastically uninteresting. Expansion of the final tournaments has made qualifying boring. Almost unwatchable frankly unless you are a big fan of a bubble team like Wales or Ecuador.
   162. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 21, 2023 at 11:21 AM (#6145192)
Newcastle looks absolutely masterful against Palace this morning.
   163. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 21, 2023 at 12:28 PM (#6145194)
Measured by xG, opponent, and homefield, it was probably their third weakest performance of the year, after the Brighton and City games. (Of course, actual goals count too.)

edit: actually they dominated xG more than I thought initially, so it could be quite a bit better than that after all. Still, they've probably had at least 4 better games this year.

edit2: not really relevant to the Newcastle game today, but I've been getting really annoyed at announcers who announce the game as if the scoreline reflects the relative performance of the teams (which is basically all of them). Another prime example was the Liverpool/Everton game today that was scoreless until late. I had to mute it at one point it was so annoying and I'm not even a fan of either team.
   164. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 21, 2023 at 12:45 PM (#6145196)
Arsenal is a significant favorite today despite the game being at Stamford Bridge. (42% to 30% or something, each team to win--trying to remember the pregame odds), but I don't think these teams are as far apart as people think. Chelsea has had their problems but have also been pretty unlucky. Arsenal is on a great run of results and are a bit overrated for that reason.

Arsenal are still better, but not by that much on the road anyway. The rain I think helps Chelsea too since it increases variance and (usually) makes it harder for better teams to shine.
   165. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 21, 2023 at 01:16 PM (#6145198)
The rain seems to be affecting Arsenal. A little tentative on defense and out of synch on offense. Only 3 shots in the half.
   166. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 21, 2023 at 01:47 PM (#6145202)
Arsenal looks pretty terrible, even if the goals are a fluke and a penalty, respectively. Odegaard has barely touched the ball, which is never a good sign.
   167. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 21, 2023 at 01:50 PM (#6145203)
What are the concussion protocols here? I thought I remembered that guys who take a blow to the head like Jesus just did are supposed to leave the match.
   168. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 21, 2023 at 02:07 PM (#6145205)
Heads up play from Rice, but man, that was a dogshit pass from Sanchez.
   169. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 21, 2023 at 02:13 PM (#6145206)
unexpected
   170. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 21, 2023 at 03:35 PM (#6145219)
Manchester United is going to be the first team this year to lose the xG battle to Sheffield United. Sheffield United hasn't come close to winning it in any previous game this year.
   171. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 21, 2023 at 04:59 PM (#6145233)
Manchester United is still bad at the moment. Barely outplaying a team that has been outmatched in every other game they've played this year is not an achievement.

In the end, the xG was close, thought that really was mainly due to Sheffield United getting a penalty.

A single point in the first 9 games I think matches the worst start of any team ever in the premier league.
   172. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 24, 2023 at 04:58 PM (#6145511)
Arsenal won probably their hardest game of the group stage, so should now sail through to the KOs. I didn't get a chance to see it, but the stats say they were the solidly better team on the night as well.

United managed to just eke out a win in what was probably their easiest game of the group stage, and looked very shaky doing that (getting a last minute penalty save as well). It gets a lot harder now with two straight away games against the teams that would take their spot, followed by Bayern who won't have anything to play for except their group stage winning streak.
   173. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 24, 2023 at 05:33 PM (#6145517)
I didn't get to see much of it, either. The last few minutes were stressful, as they usually are in 1-goal matches. Raya made a great save with his fist that the announcers insisted on reading as a sign of his allegedly wobbly keeping. Watching soccer is not unlike watching baseball 20 years ago -- know-nothing announcers just bloviating in the fact of all evidence. Raya has been significantly better than Ramsdale in every single phase of the game this year, but you'd think he was a kid who stole the role from a veteran to listen to the TV idiots.
   174. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 24, 2023 at 05:59 PM (#6145518)
Bayern has their next two games at home against Galatasaray and then Copenhagen. Hard to think they wouldn't win both of those. Assuming that happens, United doesn't need to do particularly well to advance. They would almost certainly need another win though unless they can draw twice and then snag at least a point from Bayern in Manchester (and hope Galtasary does not win in Copenhagen), and it would make their lives a lot easier if that win were against Galatasary. A draw against Copenhagen or even a loss next round does not put United out of it, which is fairly ridiculous.
   175. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 25, 2023 at 03:17 PM (#6145615)
PL wants to punish Everton by 12 points (!) for FFP violations. I guess we can kiss goodbye to that 70+ year streak in the top flight.
   176. The Marksist Posted: October 27, 2023 at 09:54 AM (#6145716)
Bottom of the league is dreadful this year. I could see Everton pulling a miracle even with the deduction.
   177. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 27, 2023 at 02:35 PM (#6145726)
Was going to say the same thing, but I wasn't sure if people wanted to keep hearing me talk to myself (and occasionally Voxter) anymore...

I think there is at least a 50/50 chance Everton with a 12-point deduction finishes no worse than 18th. Avoiding relegation would be quite a bit harder, but still doable this year. If the eventual deduction is less than 12 points, they might not be that unlikely to stay up. At the moment, Everton is being given a 30% chance of relegation, which should be accounting for the odds of any points deduction.
   178. SoSH U at work Posted: October 27, 2023 at 06:02 PM (#6145745)
I agree. And it's probably a four-person class of awful.

   179. Mefisto Posted: October 27, 2023 at 06:51 PM (#6145748)
@177: Keep the thread alive! I do respond occasionally.
   180. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 27, 2023 at 07:56 PM (#6145752)
I could see Everton pulling a miracle even with the deduction.


One can only hope. I have soft spot for Everton dating back to when I read that the Beatles, inasmuch as any of them cared about football (not very much), were fans of the Toffees.
   181. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 28, 2023 at 01:35 PM (#6145788)
Chelsea lost yet again. How bad have they been this year...? Not that bad! Today was the first game they had less xG than their opponents (by fbref anyway), and then probably mostly because they pulled the GK in the last minute chasing the game. Take out penalties and they finish behind Arsenal and maybe West Ham, depending on which system you use. Still, they've actually been pretty good by underlying stats. They've been the team that has most underperformed on the scoreboard besides maybe Everton. Both teams have suffered a similar problem--scoring many fewer goals than expected and also having very bad timing about it.
   182. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 29, 2023 at 11:09 AM (#6145838)
Everton won away to West Ham this morning. Game could have gone either way, but they held their own just fine against what was supposed to be a superior team, away from home, and that is a fine accomplishment any week. Everton has just 10 points in 10 games, with a very hard remaining 9 games in the first half of the season, so they have a long way to go if they will be docked any points.

They have been much, much better than their record so far. Even with a couple extra points today they still should have about 16 points so far rather than the 10 they actually have. Even with an easy schedule played so far that's no worse than solidly midtable really. If they can keep up that level of play all year (always a big if after just 10 games) they won't be relegated even with a 12 point deduction.
   183. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 29, 2023 at 11:59 AM (#6145842)
Brighton completely schizophrenic again. Sometimes they look like the best team on earth, and sometimes like a League 2 side. It's so weird.
   184. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 29, 2023 at 12:23 PM (#6145844)
With Tottenham, Arsenal, and Liverpool overperforming on the scoreboard, and Newcastle underperforming, and City being City, the top 4 race could get very boring very quickly. I wouldn't count Newcastle out just yet but they sure have dug themselves a hole.

Brighton is probably not good enough to catch those others now that they are in a hole, and United can forget it. Villa is of course doing well in the table but I'd be very surprsied if they are still hanging around at the end of the season.
   185. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 29, 2023 at 03:18 PM (#6145859)
Yeah, I wonder about Villa. I look at their roster and I don't see a side that can challenge for Europe. Their underlying stats would seem to indicate that they've been a little bit lucky. But watch the matches and they *look* pretty good.

I wonder if Tottenham is deep enough to stay in the top 4 -- though they don't have any European football, so that will help. Certainly helped Arsenal after they got knocked out early in the Europa Cup, at least for a while.
   186. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 29, 2023 at 05:05 PM (#6145865)
Top 4 odds currently:
city         98
arsenal      80
liverpool    77
tottenham    57

newcastle    33

villa        17
brighton     13.5
united       12
chelsea      10.5

field         2
In another year Chelsea overperforms on the scoreboard rather than the other way around, and they would be thick in the race.
   187. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 29, 2023 at 05:18 PM (#6145867)
Leicester just won their 9th straight in the Championship. They have taken 39 of 42 points this year, slipping up just once in 14 games (an away loss to a decent Hull team). Ipswich is also tearing up the Championship, but no one else is close, so Leicester is up 14 points on 3rd place and seem to be sailing back into the premier league.

ELO loves Leicester right now due to their win streak. They aren't far behind Chelsea and West Ham for what would be a spot in the top half of the premier league.
   188. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 29, 2023 at 06:40 PM (#6145870)
I mean, they're not really a Championship team. They're a mid-level PL team that managed to get relegated. I imagine West Ham would be blowing the competition away, too, if they'd got sent down.
   189. The Marksist Posted: October 30, 2023 at 09:35 AM (#6145895)
As a Liverpool fan, I find Everton's general competence annoying, but I would actually kind of hate to see them relegated. Not because I'm above a bit of schadenfreude, but because I worry the club would collapse completely, and that would be a shame.
   190. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 30, 2023 at 10:22 AM (#6145897)
"Manchester United staff already have concerns about finishing in the top four this season, a source has told ESPN." Yeah, no ####### ####. If they are just realizing this now, the management is much worse than we all even thought.
   191. jmurph Posted: October 30, 2023 at 10:46 AM (#6145900)
"Manchester United staff already have concerns about finishing in the top four this season, a source has told ESPN." Yeah, no ####### ####. If they are just realizing this now, the management is much worse than we all even thought.

It's incredible how just completely devoid of elite talent they are, especially with Bruno and Rashford in their current form. They've been lighting money on fire for years.
   192. Mefisto Posted: October 30, 2023 at 11:11 AM (#6145903)
As I've been saying for years now, the problem with United is in the front office.
   193. Mefisto Posted: October 30, 2023 at 01:20 PM (#6145923)
The most immediate problem for United at the moment -- and this has been true for most of this season -- is that all 4 preferred defenders are out with injuries. Few teams can afford to play their 2d or 3d string defenders for any length of time and succeed, and fewer still can play them at all 4 positions at once. Combine that with the lack of a right winger, which has been a problem for 10 years now, and the absence of Casemiro, and the team will be lucky to finish top 6.

Would getting everyone healthy change this? Probably they'd contend for top 4 but not anything more.
   194. Mefisto Posted: November 04, 2023 at 08:45 AM (#6146481)
I recognize that I'm biased but that offside call seems wrong. The defender was not trying to defend Garnacho, so Maguire's offside position didn't matter.
   195. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 04, 2023 at 10:32 AM (#6146486)
Not a very inspiring game by United. An away win is always worth something, but this Fulham team is a team is not good--in most other years they would be fighting relegation. Not seeing any improvement by either of these teams yet.
   196. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 04, 2023 at 12:29 PM (#6146491)
Milner is now just 6 games shy of Giggs for second most premier league games played. 27 shy of Gareth Barry for most ever.
   197. Richard Posted: November 04, 2023 at 01:15 PM (#6146494)
My goodness the Blades needed that. And just about deserved to win, on a good second half showing.
   198. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: November 04, 2023 at 01:40 PM (#6146497)
Arsenal is without Marty, without Jesus, without Partey, on the road at Newcastle. I do not feel good about this.

At least White got rid of the crappy dye job.
   199. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: November 04, 2023 at 02:14 PM (#6146504)
Newcastle-Arsenal has been spicy. Not exactly high quality play, but back and forth and a lot, lot, lot of banging bodies. Kai Havertz got carded for an ugly challenge, and then something like three Newcastle players got carded for whingeing about how it should have been a red.
   200. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: November 04, 2023 at 03:10 PM (#6146506)
I concede that Mik Arteta has forgotten more about football than I will ever know, but I cannot for the life of me understand why Nketiah is still on the pitch. He's clearly hurt, Trossard is perfectly adequate, and Arsenal is in bad need of some kind of change.
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