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Saturday, August 19, 2023

OT Soccer - World Cup Final/European Leagues Start

Soccer is being played.

Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: August 19, 2023 at 09:42 PM | 337 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: off topic, soccer

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201. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: November 04, 2023 at 05:01 PM (#6146513)

Didn't go Arsenal's way in the end. I look forward to a week of wailing and rending of garments over VAR, but I think, in the end, the call on the Newcastle goal was perfectly defensible.

My takeaway from the game, in general terms, is that Declan Rice is just a hell of a player. He was actually playing a left-sided 8 early on, then shifted back to his usual 6 role,a nd he didn't look out of place in either. He was everywhere all the time, and came close to willing Arsenal to a point almost single-handedly, given how sleepy everybody else was. I guess Martinelli, Saliba and Havertz(!) were OK, but everybody else was pretty meh.

We've spoken of Dirk Kuyt here before; White reminds me of Kuyt in his phenomenal work rate, sheer physical power, and versatility. I'd take a team of 11 Declan Rices.

202. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 04, 2023 at 06:44 PM (#6146521)

The call was defensible for sure. 3 separate moments though were essentially too close to call as 50/50 plays. If any one of them got called on the field it probably would not have been reversed on VAR, so Newcastle were pretty lucky there.

Newcastle has been one of the most underperforming teams on the scoreboard, and Arsenal the most overperforming though. And this game goes part of the way to reversing that.

203. SoSH U at work Posted: November 04, 2023 at 08:02 PM (#6146524)

Didn't go Arsenal's way in the end. I look forward to a week of wailing and rending of garments over VAR, but I think, in the end, the call on the Newcastle goal was perfectly defensible.

I think that call is defensible, but Newcastle should have been playing with 10 men.

204. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: November 05, 2023 at 06:22 AM (#6146561)

I think that call is defensible, but Newcastle should have been playing with 10 men.

Agreed. But so should Arsenal.

205. SoSH U at work Posted: November 05, 2023 at 07:45 AM (#6146562)

Possibly, either on the initial challenge or for the second one on Wilson.

I think the ref lost it when he awarded three cards to Newcastle on the potential red to Havertz. But it doesn't excuse Bruno's idiotic forearm. Howe needs to figure out a way to get him under control in those situations.

206. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: November 05, 2023 at 09:25 PM (#6146616)

But so should Arsenal

It was an ugly game. You probably could have tossed two or three dudes on each side.

Howe needs to figure out a way to get him under control in those situations.

While this is true, Bruno is the kind of player I wanted to grow up to be, in all the sports I played and watched. Talented, passionate, and just mean as ####. It's deeply annoying when he's on the other side of the ball, but I would love him to death if he were playing a left-sided eight in North London.

207. jmurph Posted: November 06, 2023 at 04:39 PM (#6146685)

Chelsea are so, so bad. Can’t even get a shot off with a two man advantage.

208. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 06, 2023 at 04:45 PM (#6146686)

Coming into the game Chelsea had a higher xGD than Tottenham.

edit: the difference was due entirely to penalties, but if you regress or remove those, then they are close to equal or Tottenham was slightly ahead.

209. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 06, 2023 at 04:49 PM (#6146688)

How many goals have been chalked off in this game now...

210. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 06, 2023 at 04:53 PM (#6146690)

Sterling trying to dribble through 4 men at midfield, with a 2-man advantage. ok that is a ridiculous way to play.

211. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 06, 2023 at 04:56 PM (#6146691)

Assuming this score holds up, it will have been a huge weekend for Newcastle's position. Keeps United breathing (barely).

Could be 5 premier league teams in the CL next year if the teams already playing in Europe get their act together a bit. You would have expected the premier league to finish in the top 2 in points coming into the year.

212. jmurph Posted: November 07, 2023 at 09:18 AM (#6146756)

Chelsea are so, so bad. Can’t even get a shot off with a two man advantage.

This probably looks silly to anyone who didn't see the game given the score (and maybe it was silly!), but immediately after Spurs got the 2nd red I think Chelsea had a shot from the ensuing free kick, and then I think maybe one more shot in the 12 or 13 minutes before I posted that. It was bleeeeeeak. Obviously Spurs broke down eventually.

I enjoyed the late game/end of game praise of Tottenham by the broadcasters for hanging on valiantly for so long, as if they were just randomly assigned two fewer players on the day rather than deservedly having two sent off in a home game they should have easily won.

213. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 07, 2023 at 01:40 PM (#6146769)

Yes they have a hard group, but Newcastle has still been bad so far in their 3.5 CL games overall. Way below expectations.

214. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 07, 2023 at 02:16 PM (#6146772)

Newcastle did beat PSG, but and all their shots just happened to go in. They weren't obviously the better team on the day. They've been clearly second best in the other 3 games so far.

215. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 07, 2023 at 02:24 PM (#6146773)

If PSG wins later today, Newcastle will drop down to Europa at best.

edit: it doesn't help that PSG plays Dortmund in the last group game, where both teams will likely know what they need to ensure advancement (which almost certainly won't be both teams needing to win).

216. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 07, 2023 at 04:04 PM (#6146780)

At the moment, the only teams that were favorites to advance that are not in the top 2 in their group are: United (Galatasaray), Newcastle (Dortmund), and Sevilla (Lens).

edit: Benfica might have been a very slight favorite over Sociedad.

217. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 07, 2023 at 04:25 PM (#6146782)

No shots yet for Young Boys against City, and now down to 10 men.

218. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 07, 2023 at 04:52 PM (#6146785)

The Milan/PSG has been one of the most compelling games of the group stage so far. Tightens the group nicely too if the score holds up.

edit: with this result, Newcastle doesn't actually have to beat PSG in Paris next round. A draw, then a win at home against Inter, and a bit of luck could get them there. A win would be much better of course. They would be eliminated (from the CL) with a loss regardless.

219. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 07, 2023 at 05:09 PM (#6146787)

I should also say a win next week for Newcastle doesn't guarantee them anything. They would still need to at least draw Milan and then get some luck. The only way they are guaranteed to advance is with 2 wins.

220. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: November 07, 2023 at 11:08 PM (#6146808)

The last time Newcastle were in the CL, they lost their first 3 games. Then went on to become the first team to advance after having done so, by winning their next 3. I was at the 1-0 win over Juve at St James' that started that run though, so it was clearly all my doing, and they are probably doomed now.

221. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: November 08, 2023 at 03:14 PM (#6146859)

Is it just me, or this picture on Paramount+ not nearly as good as Peacock or NBC Sports?

222. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: November 08, 2023 at 04:44 PM (#6146867)

Arsenal-Sevilla is going to end up one of those games where the scoreline doesn't quite reflect the quality of play. Arsenal has just suffocated Sevilla. The Spanish side hasn't even had a shot 82 minutes into the game. Not a shot on goal -- no shots at all. Arsenal has possessed the ball almost at will. Sevilla has been reduced to fouling Arsenal's attacking players rather than guarding them.

. . . oh ####, Saka is on the ground for the second time in five minutes. And got a card for time-wasting because he's too hurt to walk off the field at top speed? Jesus.

223. jmurph Posted: November 09, 2023 at 08:48 AM (#6146908)

Is it just me, or this picture on Paramount+ not nearly as good as Peacock or NBC Sports?

I use practically all of the streaming apps (sports addiction plus young kids will do this to you), and Paramount+ is by far the worst (Peacock is pretty close behind!). Which is unfortunate since it has a ton of soccer rights. I regularly can't get Serie A games to load at all, have to uninstall/reinstall the app frequently, etc.

224. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 09, 2023 at 01:59 PM (#6146920)

I had to miss all the games yesterday, but I see United is finding new and innovative ways to lose to inferior teams. The group is so bad though they are not out of it yet, and would probably even advance with a win against Galatasaray and a home draw against Bayern.

Realistically though this team is probably good enough to get an away draw in Turkey, and maybe a home draw against Bayern if Bayern decides not to bring their A team. 4 points from the two games is not particularly likely.

225. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 09, 2023 at 02:41 PM (#6146925)

With that win, Brighton is likely able to clinch before week 6 if they can win at Athens in 3 weeks. That would be nice after starting so slow. Group winner and a round off is certainly well within reach now too.

226. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 09, 2023 at 05:07 PM (#6146940)

After 4 games in Europa, all the favorites are currently slated to advance. The group leaders are all the most favored teams too, except Brighton is slightly behind Marseille, and Slavia Prague is ahead of Roma on GD (which could end up being critical in that group). Rennes is also ahead of Villarreal, but only because Villarreal has a game in hand.

No teams of note are likely to be eliminated from Europa Conference either. So it's really just United who is the ######. Newcastle hasn't played well but their group is a killer, and even as second favorite going into the group stage their odds were probably a tad below 50/50 to begin with. And they still have a chance (27% to advance, interestingly below United's 30% chance to advance).

227. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 10, 2023 at 06:49 AM (#6146962)

Pepe is 40 now. Still laying 90 minutes for Porto in the CL.

228. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 11, 2023 at 09:41 AM (#6147006)

Tottenham is a decent team but in no way a title contender. Realistically they haven't even played like a top 4 (or 5) team this year even, if you look beyond the scorelines.

Wolves outplayed them all day after the first 10 minutes, and deserved the win.

229. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 11, 2023 at 12:09 PM (#6147007)

Luton and Burnley were on the road against far superior teams. Both tried to hang on for a while, but the games really were mismatches. Even with United having been quite bad of late it was still no contest for Luton really.

Everton finally won a game where they may have been outplayed. They've been snakebit all year putting the ball into the net, but the opposite was true today. At this point relegation now is quite unlikely unless they get stuck with a fairly massive point deduction. 5 of their next 7 games are very hard though, so by the end of boxing day they could be seating it again, especially if a points deduction seems more likely.

230. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 11, 2023 at 12:55 PM (#6147009)

I had no idea Girona was leading La Liga. They have played very well but also have been incredibly fortunate. The results can't last and they won't win the league, but if they can continue playing anywhere near this well they could get a CL spot.

231. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 11, 2023 at 01:50 PM (#6147013)

Not sure what is up with Newcastle today, but they have done jack and #### offensively.

232. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 11, 2023 at 03:24 PM (#6147036)

They may be tired and have some players missing, but that was an unbelievably bad performance by Newcastle against a team that has been very bad so far this year.

It's not only easily Newcastle's worst performance of the year, considering the opposition it might be in the top 10 worst performances by any premier league team this year. I don't think even United has played a worse game than that, opposition adjusted, for example. Even Sheffield United probably only has two or three worse ones. It's pretty inexplicable from a team that has played so well this year in the premier league anyway.

233. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 11, 2023 at 03:47 PM (#6147039)

Spurs are being given about 2.5% to win the title. A little under 40% for top 4.

Speaking of, it's still early but if United and Newcastle fail to advance in the CL that puts a dent in the premier league's chances of getting a 5th CL spot next year. Dropping into Europa would be better than going out entirely. Either team, but most likely especially Newcastle, could easily be the beneficiary of the 5th CL spot.

Before today's loss Newcastle had gone ahead of Spurs in the race for top 4, by betting odds anyway. Newcastle is now at around 36%. Those two are the bubble teams. City/Arsenal/Liverpool are the three currently being given high odds for Top 4, with United/Chelsea/Villa/Brighton (in that order) all still being given a puncher's chance at around 12%-18% each.

234. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 12, 2023 at 11:59 AM (#6147065)

Penalty for City. A prime example of why fouls can't be called in the penalty box the way they are on the rest of the field. The contact was created as much by Haaland as the other way around, with both players grabbing the other for advantage. It was definitely a foul by the defender, but the situation was created by Haaland also fouling Cucarella. Strong incentive for offensive players to play super physically and aggressively in the box. Defenders have to defend in kind, and if they do, run the risk of a penalty.

To my mind that was a bad call, created by what is really a bad rule (that is, the general soccer penalty rule).

edit: especially irritating in the context of the game today, where City has been significantly outplayed and has done nothing on the offensive end.

235. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 12, 2023 at 12:07 PM (#6147066)

Also, did not realize Thiago Silva was already 39.

236. jmurph Posted: November 12, 2023 at 12:09 PM (#6147067)

I have brought this on myself with all my Chelsea mockery.

237. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 12, 2023 at 12:16 PM (#6147068)

Game sure came alive after the penalty, anyway.

238. jmurph Posted: November 12, 2023 at 12:45 PM (#6147069)

Up 3-2 at the moment but City look pretty bad, sloppiest I've seen them in a few weeks at least.

239. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 12, 2023 at 01:11 PM (#6147072)

This has been quite the game for the neutral. So much offense.

240. Baldrick Posted: November 12, 2023 at 01:27 PM (#6147073)

I was trying to decide if it was worth re-scheduling my day so that I could watch this game. Decided it wasn't worth the effort. Oops!

241. Baldrick Posted: November 12, 2023 at 01:34 PM (#6147074)

In other soccer news, the NWSL season concluded last night with Gotham FC completing their last-to-first miracle run. Or, alternatively, the season concluded with a championship for the team whose goal difference for the season was +1. YMMV. Pretty wild parity in the NWSL this year, in any case, with every single team both winning and losing between 6 and 12 games.

Meanwhile in Sweden's Damallsvenskan, Hammarby won their first title in about 40 years, finishing level on points with Häcken and a single goal advantage. Almost lost it on the final day, only managing a 2-0 victory to Häcken's 4-0, but it was just enough to get it done. Sadly, my local team got relegated, which means I'll be taking my son to Elitettan games next year.

242. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 12, 2023 at 01:36 PM (#6147075)

Wow. That really was a fun game to watch. Very even too in the end and with so many goals could easily gone either way.

243. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 12, 2023 at 03:08 PM (#6147078)

That was the most goals given up by City since 2-5 against Leicester early in the 2020-2021 season, I think. Also the most xG given up since even further back, away to Chelsea late in the 2019-2020 season.

244. Mefisto Posted: November 13, 2023 at 07:25 PM (#6147145)

I just now got to watch the Chelsea/City game. That was fun. I have to say that I can't believe Poch has more or less made a player of Connor Gallagher. I thought that was impossible.

245. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 17, 2023 at 08:50 AM (#6147429)

Everton was hit with a 10-point suspension. It can be appealed, so maybe that will be reduced? At any rate, betting odds have them as just under 1 in 3 to be relegated.

Based on how the teams have all looked so far, if there was ever a year for Everton to get hit with a 10-point suspension, this might be the one. The rest of the calendar year could look rough though with the hard schedule that Everton has. It really depends on whether two or more of the other bottom dwellers can put anything meaningful together over the next several games.

246. jmurph Posted: November 17, 2023 at 12:09 PM (#6147449)

Based on how the teams have all looked so far, if there was ever a year for Everton to get hit with a 10-point suspension, this might be the one.

Ha, I came to say the same thing. The other three candidates look like much worse teams, I expect Everton to survive.

247. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 18, 2023 at 10:49 AM (#6147538)

It's fairly low quality stuff, but this Armenia/Wales game with both teams really wanting to win has been fairly compelling. A draw pretty much hands the second qualifying spot to Croatia, so both teams pretty much need to win.

248. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 18, 2023 at 04:43 PM (#6147567)

France beat Gibraltar 14-0.

249. sardonic Posted: November 18, 2023 at 07:55 PM (#6147577)

I'm going to have a nice laugh if Mexico ends up bounced out of Nations League and ends up one step closer to missing Copa America.

250. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: November 20, 2023 at 02:46 PM (#6147716)

I was hearing that the appeal might drag on till the summer, which would mean . . . what? Ten point deduction next season? Nobody knows who's been relegated until well after the season is over? What a ###########.

I know people who are absolutely convinced that Man City will see no punishment, but I actually don't think that's true. First, they have like many dozens of violations to Everton's one. But really -- City are an embarrassment to the Premier League. They're not as globally popular as old powers like United and Liverpool, everybody knows how they're doing what they're doing, and their fanbase in England is laughably small. I think they'd be pretty happy to knock the Johnny-come-latelys down a little bit, especially if it means that United can again become the earth-bestriding superpower they were at the time Sir Alex retired.

251. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 20, 2023 at 03:00 PM (#6147720)

3 really big Euro qualifiers are on right now. As big as they can really be in this expanded format.

Ukraine/Italy winner gets into the tournament, with loser going to the playoffs (and Ukraine going out with a loss and an unlikely Czech Republic loss).

Czech Republic/Moldova with Moldova needing just a win to make the tournament. A loss by the Czech Republic drops them into the playoffs.

Iceland and Estonia are currently in the playoffs, but 1) Iceland would be out entirely if Italy wins and Moldova wins, and 2) Estonia would be out in the very unlikely even that both Italy and the Czech Republic both lose.

And finally, Khazakstan actually makes it directly to the tournament with a win, sending Slovenia straight home and Azerbaijan to the playoff (curently Khazakstan's spot). That would be something.

So far all games are scoreless.

edit: and the Czech Republic takes the lead at home. A turnaround in that game seems highly unlikely now. Assuming it does not happen, Estonia and Iceland are both in the playoffs, and Ukraine/Italy is a battle for who goes straight in and who goes to the playoff.

252. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 20, 2023 at 04:37 PM (#6147737)

Wow. Late stoppage time penalty shout for Ukraine that I'm honestly surprised was not given by VAR. Would have sent Ukraine to the tournament.

Would have been nice to see it a few more times, but is sure seemed like a penalty on initial viewing.

253. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 20, 2023 at 04:42 PM (#6147738)

The playoffs are almost set, pending Croatia getting it done tomorrow. Probably:

1. Poland/Estonia v Wales/Iceland
2. Israel/Ukraine v Bosnia/Finland
3. Georgia/Luxembourg v Greece/Kazakhstan

edit: the best team not to automatically qualify is very likely Ukraine. The best team not to even reach the playoffs is probably Norway or maybe Sweden. (Russia was not eligible.) Those are pretty much the only top 25 teams in UEFA that did not at least qualify for the playoff.

Yes, UEFA tournament qualifying is now mostly uninteresting.

254. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 21, 2023 at 03:44 PM (#6147870)

Well the above playoff matchups are possibly wrong, because the matchmaking method is unnecessarily complicated:

The twelve selected teams will then be allocated to paths of four teams. The draw to allocate teams to the different paths will be subject to the following general conditions:[1]

If four or more teams from a league enter the play-offs, a path with four teams from the league in question has to be formed.
League B and C group winners cannot form a path with a team from a higher league.
Additional conditions may be applied, including seeding principles, subject to approval of the UEFA Executive Committee.
With these conditions, the draw procedure is as follows, starting with League C and working up to League A:[5][6]

If there are four teams available in a given league, form a path with these four teams.
If there are more than four teams available in a given league, draw which four teams will participate in the path of the league.
Remaining teams will be drawn into a path of a higher league.
If there are fewer than four teams available in a given league, draw available and eligible teams from other leagues so that four teams compose the path of the given league.

The only real upshot of the above under the current facts is that we don't yet know which of Finland/Ukraine/Iceland will be stuck with the League A teams. They could have just made it the lowest ranked team from the Nations League (Iceland), which is by the way how everything else regarding the playoff is determined, but for some reason they will have a draw instead.

255. sardonic Posted: November 21, 2023 at 10:25 PM (#6147903)

Mexico going into the half against Honduras down 2-1 on aggregate after pulling a goal back. I gotta say, watching CONCACAF is a lot funnier when you're watching other teams. Also, how the heck did Canada get knocked out of Nations League by Jamaica??

256. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 22, 2023 at 12:55 AM (#6147914)

Mexico going into the half against Honduras down 2-1 on aggregate after pulling a goal back. I gotta say, watching CONCACAF is a lot funnier when you're watching other teams.

I was planning to watch this then forgot. Remembered just around the times penalties were over. Looks like it might have been fairly exciting.

Also, how the heck did Canada get knocked out of Nations League by Jamaica??

Wait, what?

257. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 24, 2023 at 12:23 PM (#6148090)

I realize it's because they are playing tomorrow morning, but the sudden pretense that City and Liverpool are pretty much equally good and are the two teams fighting for the title is stupid.

City is and has been clearly better than any other team in the premier league for a while, and certainly seem to be this year as well. The game tomorrow in Manchester is not a tossup--betting odds have it as 55% City win v 22% Liverpool, which is way above normal home field advantage. Overall City is expected to win the league 65% of the time, with Liverpool at 14%.

Let's also not forget about Arsenal, at 15%.

Sure Liverpool can win tomorrow (and I sincerely hope they do) and make the title race a little more interesting. Even if that happens City would still be the favorite though.

258. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: November 24, 2023 at 06:25 PM (#6148112)

I'll be an interesting match. I'm looking forward to it. As an Arsenal partisan, I suppose I should be rooting for . . . I guess a Liverpool win? I have more faith in Arsenal's ability to compete with Liverpool than City, so the fewer points City eke out at any given point, the better. Though a 0-0 draw (not happening) would be good, too.

If Arsenal could get healthy, I would feel better about their chances this year. (He said, obviously.) They're having to play Rice as a left-sided 8, a position at which he is astonishingly good. But that pushes Jorginho into the lineup too often as a holding midfielder, and though the lad does his best, he's lost about seven steps since his heyday. Tomiyasu is, in general, their best option at left back -- Zinchenko just isn't a good enough defender -- but Jurrien Timber would be a significant upgrade. And Partey appears to be out for the season with some kind of thigh issue (or legal problems -- turns out he's not a cool dude).

This all points up the folly of the Havertz purchase. When they made it, my immediate reaction was, "I'm sorry, what?" Though he's looked better in the last couple of matches, the fact is that he cost a lot and didn't fill any sort of need -- not a striker, not a holding midfielder, and affirmatively not a central midfielder. He's probably best used as a winger, a position at which Arsenal is completely set. Mik's idea that he could turn Havertz into a #8 overnight smacks of that Mets pitching coach who thought he could fix Victor Zambrano in 5 minutes.

259. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 25, 2023 at 08:59 AM (#6148134)

It doesn't look like much, but you can't pull a GK's arms away from the ball while he's trying to catch it. It makes catching the ball almost impossible. Easy call for VAR.

It would be clear pass interference in the american football, for example.

260. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: November 25, 2023 at 02:27 PM (#6148165)

Arsenal once again befuddled by a low block, but -- lo and behold -- Kai Havertz (on the wing!) is the hero in the last moments. Top of the table. Kind of a familiar feeling, to be top and have it seem like second place somehow.

261. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 25, 2023 at 03:32 PM (#6148169)

Last year Arsenal and City were effectively neck and neck for something like 3 months, when Arsenal had a small but significant lead in the standings. It was a great and very close race where every point was critical, but sportswriters pretty much missed the whole thing. They only started paying attention to each point once the teams were almost level 80% of the way through the season, and in reality at that point City was very close to winning the league, and had effectively won it a couple weeks later.

Right now, it is still City's to lose. They are being given 61% to win the league, with Arsenal at 16% and Liverpool at 15%.

262. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 26, 2023 at 11:42 AM (#6148235)

Garnacho just made one of the best bicycle kicks you will ever see. Sure to be on highlight reels for decades to come.

Personally I love the ones most that come off of crosses, because the timing of the kick has to be pristine. This one was that kind, and was from distance and accurate too. The only thing missing was pure lethal velocity like the Andy Carroll one, which is another of my favorites.

263. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 26, 2023 at 12:27 PM (#6148239)

United was sorely outplayed in that half. They had the wonder goal but nothing else. Everton continues to be snakebit this year.

264. Mefisto Posted: November 26, 2023 at 12:28 PM (#6148240)

That goal was incredible. One of the best I've seen.

265. Mefisto Posted: November 26, 2023 at 01:27 PM (#6148244)

Everton really can't catch a break. They should have been up 1-0 at halftime, then they get a diving call reversed into a penalty.

266. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 26, 2023 at 01:33 PM (#6148245)

To be fair, it was a pretty easy reversal.

267. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 26, 2023 at 01:38 PM (#6148246)

United is not nearly as good as their spot in the table, probably having 5 or 6 more points than they "should" based on underlying performance. But then that's also true for Arsenal and Spurs.

268. Mefisto Posted: November 26, 2023 at 01:49 PM (#6148247)

Yeah, the reversal was easy but I haven't seen it done before. And of course before VAR the diving call would have stood.

269. Mefisto Posted: November 26, 2023 at 01:51 PM (#6148248)

It's true that United have been lucky. The silver lining is that a lot of their bad play has been due to injuries and they're starting to get everyone back. I still think they'll struggle to finish top 4.

270. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: November 26, 2023 at 03:32 PM (#6148252)

Just watched yesterday's battle of the Borussias. Dortmund came back from 2-0 down, to lead 3-2 at the half. And got a fourth late, when Gladbach's keeper came forward, and Malen had an empty net to run the ball into.

Even as a Dortmund fan though, I have no idea how the 3-2 goal stood though. Reus is several yards offside, and in direct line between the keeper and Bynoe-Gittens' shot. Apparently they didn't even check it? Huge VAR blunder. That said, after a very shaky start, it really was one way traffic, and Dortmund played them off the pitch. So overall, I think they were good value for the win. But yeah, also super lucky.

271. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 26, 2023 at 04:04 PM (#6148256)

That line of sight offside rule probably needs to be clarified. It seems like the calls and non-calls are all over the place. If they could figure a way to make the call more mechanical or "bright-line" it might help.

272. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 27, 2023 at 10:45 AM (#6148284)

We are 1/3 of the way through the Premier league season. The winner odds have not really changed much since the start--City is still slightly above 60%. Arsenal and Liverpool are a few percentage points higher than they were out of the gate, Villa slightly higher, and Spurs about the same. The losers are United, Chelsea, and Newcastle.

Mainly what's happened is Arsenal and Liverpool have taken points from United and Chelsea, with City holding steady as the big favorite.

273. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 28, 2023 at 05:08 PM (#6148476)

Newcastle gave up a penalty late in stoppage time on a play that would never have been called a handball in the premier league. They could feel a bit cheated, except they were only in the game in the first place because PSG missed a boatload of really good chances.

Did they play well? Not in the least. Based on performance over 5 games, PSG has been in the group and Newcastle the worst. They played gamely for a while today but this was very one-sided and really Newcastle shouldn't be advancing from this group.

Milan on the other hand has been pretty damn good and will feel plenty aggrieved that they are in all likelihood going home now.

Dortmund is through despite not having played that well. They will be one of the weakest teams in the KOs, with their stock probably further down than it was at the start of the year.

Dortmund faces PSG in the final group game and PSG only need a point to go through unless Newcastle beats Milan. I think the most likely scenario is PSG goes into Dortmund and wins, making the other game a battle for 3rd place. Newcastle has the tie breaker there and is at home, so I'm guessing they go to Europa. Still any of the bottom three teams could finish second or third. PSG can't finish 4th.

Nothing of note happened in the other groups, which are all going according to schedule. Shakhtar has a small chance to pull a fairytale upset of sorts and reach the KOs but they will have to win at Porto. A tall order.

274. SoSH U at work Posted: November 28, 2023 at 05:19 PM (#6148480)

Did they play well? Not in the least. Based on performance over 5 games, PSG has been in the group and Newcastle the worst. They played gamely for a while today but this was very one-sided and really Newcastle shouldn't be advancing from this group.

In their defense, they have virtually no one healthy outside the guys on the pitch today. They had only five field players on the bench for this game, only one of whom Howe would willingly deploy in any game. This was the exact same 11 who played Saturday at Chelsea. That they stayed in the game as long as they did was a minor miracle. After the first 25 minutes, they looked about as gassed here as they did in the loss to Bournemouth.

Their big problem in the CL was the home loss to Dortmund.

275. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: November 29, 2023 at 03:17 PM (#6148584)

Arsenal running out basically the first 11, inasmuch as there is one, absent Ben White, who is hurt-ish.

This includes Havertz at the left-sided 8, and I have to say . . . he has dominated the game? He very nearly scored from a header a minute ago and just now cleaned up a messy attack by poking a loose ball into the net (pending VAR, or course, ugh).

This time last week, Havertz had 0 goals and 1 assist from open play across all competitions, and a lot of people (including me) were questioning his place in the squad. Now he has scored in consecutive matches and could easily be on a brace fifteen minutes into this match against Lens, making us look dumb.

276. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 29, 2023 at 03:23 PM (#6148586)

United continues its string of being both bad and unlucky in the CL. They didn't deserve more than a draw today, considering how both teams played, but Onana ridiculously giving up two free kick goals was fitting.

They can still qualify but it is sure a longshot now. They must beat Bayern (in a meaningless game for Bayern, at least) and then hope Copenhagen can take something from their game against Galatasaray.

And then there was Sevilla. What a trainwreck. Up 2-0 at home and cruising, with still a real shot at making the KOS. Then they go down a man midway through the second half to two quick yellows and proceed to lose 2-3. They can still get to Europa if Arsenal holds on for the win today (very, very likely now, at 2-0, edit, 3-0) and Sevilla wins in France in December (not very likely).

Arsenal is through with a draw, and will have clinched top spot with a win. Well done by them in the CL this year.

277. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: November 29, 2023 at 03:26 PM (#6148587)

And now it's 3-0 minutes later. I think I'm going to watch the Madrid game.

278. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: November 29, 2023 at 03:29 PM (#6148590)

4-0 27 minutes into the match. The whole front line has scored. I think maybe Lens isn't very good.

279. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 29, 2023 at 04:59 PM (#6148603)

Handball penalty non-call sent to VAR and back down to the field, but the ref sticks with the original decision. Announcers bemoan the lack of consistency, but UEFA all but admitted the call last night was an error and surely the call tonight was informed by that stance.

I didn't see the play closely. At any rate Bayern did not play with any urgency and they can hardly blame the refs for not beating lowly Copenhagen at home.

Bayern's streak comes to an end. Blessing in disguise for United? Now Bayern truly has nothing to play for in December, and will also be on the road. A win by United would get them to Europa, but not through to the CL KOs unless the other game ends in a draw.

280. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 29, 2023 at 05:12 PM (#6148605)

This year the group winners are likely to be way better than the runners up. Not winning the group when the chance was there would be a mistake.

Group winners already (or virtually so): City, Bayern, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Arsenal
Atleti is a big favorite, with Inter a small favorite and PSG a small underdog. Inter and PSG would be well-advised to win their final group games.

Even if all the best second place teams win, as a group they will be far weaker than the first place teams. And there is still a chance for some comparatively very weak teams to make it: likely one of Galatasasary or Copenhagen, and possibly Braga and/or Shakhtar.

281. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 29, 2023 at 06:19 PM (#6148612)

United is probably about 10% to qualify, 40% to go to Europa, and 50% to be eliminated.

PSG is now slightly better than 50/50 to win at Dortmund and take the top spot in the group. Newcastle needs that not to happen, and also to win (55%).

Current odds to advance have PSG at 67%, Newcastle at 28%, and Milan at 5% (needing a win and a PSG loss). Newcastle gets Europa probably 50% of the time now.

I shouldn't have been so harsh on Dortmund above. While they have not been very good, and probably even worse than expected coming into the year, the 2nd place teams are most likely going to be a poor crop. Dortmund will probably be one of the better/best teams in this group, which likely will include: Galatasaray/Copenhagen, PSV, Lazio, Porto, and Leipzig. Maybe also Sociedad. All those, probably even Leipzig, will be less favored then Dortmund. Even Napoli won't be considered much better than Dortmund. The only team clearly better will be Inter, and there's a good chance they win their group ahead of Sociedad.

If Dortmund finishes top of the group they will be the team to draw, along with Sociedad (or even Lazio) if they manage to finish top as well.

282. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: November 29, 2023 at 06:24 PM (#6148614)

Atleti is a big favorite, with Inter a small favorite and PSG a small underdog. Inter and PSG would be well-advised to win their final group games.

PSG needs to win anyway to make sure they even advance. The question is whether Dortmund will feel the need to try and get a result in the last game to finish top.

283. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: November 29, 2023 at 08:16 PM (#6148623)

United is probably about 10% to qualify, 40% to go to Europa, and 50% to be eliminated.

I can't totally decide what I want out of this scenario. I hate United with the fire of a thousand suns, but that also means I loathe their deeply fickle fanbase. And that fanbase thinks Erik ten Hag is the worst manager of all time and should have been fired before he was even hired, despite his having done what strikes me as an admirable job of managing a mess of a roster and an even bigger mess of an ownership situation. So I want ten Hag to hang around and give them the finger by doing OK (not too well, of course).

Maybe the best outcome is that they bomb out, he gets fired, and next year wins the champions league with some French side or something. EDIT: While United becomes the unmitigated clown car I think they probably would be without his influence.

284. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 30, 2023 at 02:07 PM (#6148693)

I'm as big a PSG detractor as anyone (well, maybe not anymore since Neymar left), but the idea that they have been bad this tournament is really not supported by the evidence. By underlying stats they have been by far the best team in the group of death, and it's not even close.

PSG still has a fairly high chance to advance and is 50/50 to win the group. That's not much worse than it was when the group stage started.

The two EPL teams slated to go through (especially United, but also Newcastle) are more obvious candidates for having performed well below expectations. Both have had injury problems admittedly.

285. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 30, 2023 at 05:09 PM (#6148714)

Liverpool clinched their group and remain strong favorites for the Europa crown. West Ham just needs a home draw to win their group, so would be expected to do so despite facing a decent (for Europa) Freiburg team next round. Brighton got the win, but Marseille did too so the game to watch next week in Europa is Brighton hosting Marseille, with Brighton needing the win to clinch the group and avoid the playoff round against the CL rejects. That could be a very good one.

Villa got the win in the ECL, and only need a home draw against a weak team to take their group. With the way they are playing they should be, and are, also considered favorites in the ECL.

Rangers are in a dogfight in Europa. They have to go to Betis next round where a win gives them the group. A draw puts them at risk of dropping down to ECL. They missed a huge opportunity today by only drawing the group minnows at home.

286. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 30, 2023 at 08:24 PM (#6148732)

Sportswriters with bad takes, per usual. Pre-draw odds had the top 15 as:

city           30.5
bayern         14.5
real madrid    10.5
arsenal         7.5
barcelona       5.5
psg             5.5
united          4
newcastle       3.5
napoli          3
inter           2.5
atleti          2.5
mlan            2
dortmund        1.5
leipzig         1
benfica         1

Most of the teams in the above only have slightly better odds now than they did before the tournament, and PSG would be among them had they won the game yesterday instead of drawing (like they would have 90% of the time based on the performance of the two teams). PSG's current odds are around 4.5%, and would probably be over 7% if they win the group, and over 6% if not. The bettors don't think the team is any worse now than they did when the tournament started. PSG was considered the 5th or 6th best team coming in to the tournament and they still are.

There's no way United would be considered the 7th best team if the tournament were to start over right now. And Newcastle is very unlikely to be 8th at least with their injuries.

edit: the only teams from the above not advancing are teams from the group of death, United (most likely), and Benfica. Benfica is also a candidate for most underperforming, as they have been fairly awful.

edit2: 16-19 were Sevilla, Lazio, Porto, and Sociedad. 3 of 4 likely will make it as well, with the only straggler another woefully underperforming team, in Sevilla. The most suprising teams to make it to the KOs (pre-draw version) will likely be Copenhagen/Galatasary followed by PSV.

287. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 30, 2023 at 08:50 PM (#6148736)

It's practically in the job description for mainstream sportswriters not to fully adjust for the level of competition (another main part is announcing to the score...), but armchair analysts do it a lot too. A very good example is using 10 game rolling xGD as a decent measure of current form. Most of the variation in that measure over the course of a season in league play is probably due to level of competition faced. 10 games is just not enough to get a consistently reasonably average set of games.

288. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: December 01, 2023 at 03:35 PM (#6148792)

The English even have a phrase for it -- "in form." If someone describes a team as "in form," they might as well say, "I am over-reading the results of the last five matches this team has played, and ignoring the quality of competition." It drives me nuts.

Talking about soccer with people can be a little bit like talking with baseball with normies was back in the 90s and 2000s. Things that have long been acknowledged as true over here -- the existence of chance, the critical valence of competition levels, the possibility that a player's skills might actually translate from one environment to the next and not magically disappear because of [reasons], etc -- really provoke people's ire when you bring them up in the context of soccer. Really, really, and then you'll get ganged up on.

It's hard not to be like, "I've already been through this discussion in baseball and basketball, and let me tell you, in 20 years you'll all be pretending you agreed with me way back when."

289. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 02, 2023 at 04:09 PM (#6148882)

I didn't realize that goals per game have been significantly up the first third of this year in the premier league. 3.11 per game, which is well above the recent historical average of around 2.8 per game. The fact that Burnley and Sheffield Untied have been shipping goals like mad probably contributes to it.

Only three 0-0 draws so far--the last was in the first week of October.

(If United manages to not concede this game it will be a minimiracle, the way they have played so far.)

290. Mefisto Posted: December 02, 2023 at 05:07 PM (#6148884)

No miracles today.

291. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: December 02, 2023 at 06:38 PM (#6148904)

Football media are making the same mistake they were making this time last year, if I recall -- they keep referring to Arsenal being "X points clear" without mentioning the fact that they have a game in hand. Given that City is City, that really means "[X-3] points clear."

Also, Zinchenko makes me absolutely insane. Jurrien Timber cannot get healthy soon enough.

292. Baldrick Posted: December 03, 2023 at 10:05 AM (#6148991)

Is Conor Gallagher actually any good? I feel like I've seen and heard wildly different takes. And I haven't actually watched him enough to know. He doesn't seem very good to me.

293. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2023 at 10:29 AM (#6148994)

That probably should be a penalty on Milner as it is in no real sense a 50/50 play on the ball (contrary to what the announcers said). It never used to be given though, and it was not the kind of play that I would have expected to be given by VAR.

294. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2023 at 11:07 AM (#6148996)

WTF is VAR doing in the Chelsea game... Whether they should have sent the prior call to review is debatable. That phantom handball call(?) was just absurd. Luckily it did not result in a penalty.

edit: the ref might have called a penalty on the field on the handball, but if so I somehow missed it.

295. Mefisto Posted: December 03, 2023 at 11:25 AM (#6148997)

I thought Gallagher was terrible at Palace, but Poch seems to like him at Chelsea and he's ... less bad there.

296. Mefisto Posted: December 03, 2023 at 01:34 PM (#6149026)

That was a really fun game to watch, but boy did Simon Hooper blow that call.

297. jmurph Posted: December 03, 2023 at 01:40 PM (#6149027)

It was so bad in such a weird way. Haaland was immediately up and the ball was well, well out before he stopped it. You practically never see refs get that wrong.

298. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2023 at 02:17 PM (#6149029)

With City up 2-1 they went 15 minutes without a shot until Spurs leveled. With City up 3-2 it happened again but this time for only 10 minutes.

In a game which they absolutely dominated in every way but scoreline this is kind of unforgivable, and it is something that Pep has been doing for a long time. I think it probably works ok in long season where pacing players is very important for the long haul, and City can afford to drop a few points now and again while looking at the bigger picture. We've seen this in CL KO stages too though, and in that environment it can be a killer.

299. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: December 03, 2023 at 04:18 PM (#6149044)

I didn't get to see the match, and it's always hard to tell what happened from highlights, even extended ones. I do think that one of Pep's strengths, though, is that he manages his squad for a 38-game season, not a one-weekend tilt in shitting rain against one of the most unpredictable sides in the league.

Also? It seems like in a normal game, Haaland hits between 1-3 of those shots he took and this ends up an imperfect blowout. If City have a weakness at the moment, it's that their defense is "only" very good, as opposed to great. Gvardiol has looked uncertain and when Rodri is out things get a little wild back there.

300. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2023 at 04:57 PM (#6149048)

Definitely it's a "gamble" that Pep seems willing to take--to drop a few points here and there to maintain long term health and consistency, I would guess.

It's not so much that City wouldn't normally have been further ahead, or Spurs wouldn't normally score almost all their chances (3 goals with xG of under 0.5), it's that City often chooses to take their foot off the throttle when they have a lead and I think often also when they are level earlier in the game. They are usually so much better than their opponents, like they were today, that pressing their advantage harder for the full 90 minutes (or at least until they are 2 goals up) is most likely the best way to ensure a win on any given day. Taking their foot off the throttle gives teams more of a chance to get back in any one game, though may also keep City fresher for the long haul.

In 7.5 years, City has only achieved about 12 more points than xPoints. Under 2 extra points per year is very low for the unisputable best team in the league over that period. Liverpool is about 24 xP above in the same period, Arsenal 50 above, United about 40 above, Spurs almost 55 above. Only Chelsea is below expectation, at about -10.

edit: Barca, RealMadrid, and Atleti are all at +50 or more over the same period. Bayern at around +30, Dortmund +26. Leipzig is close to flat. Juve +70!!, Inter over +20. Those are all the teams I looked at.

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