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Tuesday, February 21, 2023

OT Soccer Thread - Champions League Knockout Stages Begin

New soccer thread!

Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: February 21, 2023 at 04:16 PM | 275 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: off topic, soccer

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1. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: February 21, 2023 at 04:27 PM (#6118092)

Sorry, missed that the other one had closed. Great example of something I find exasperating in the Liverpool-Real match. Just before the 4th goal Nunes was pursuing a ball in the box. He leapt for the ball and as he did the Real defender nudged him, not a lot, but enough to put him off the ball. The announcers agreed it was clearly a push but not enough to be a penalty and the ref wanted nothing to do with it.

Now, it wasn't a forceful push but it was on the replay I saw (I saw it live then one replay) enough to keep Nunes from getting to the ball. Would he have scored? Probably not but that's not the point. The defender pushed the attacker in the box, that's a penalty. If you want guys not to dive call the fouls when they happen.

2. Miserable, Non-Binary Candy is all we deserve CoB Posted: February 21, 2023 at 04:35 PM (#6118093)

Soooooo ... *this* match.

3. spivey Posted: February 21, 2023 at 06:59 PM (#6118118)

Didn’t watch the match but I see Liverpool won xG. Real Madrid CL voodoo is absolutely amazing.

4. jmurph Posted: February 22, 2023 at 08:27 AM (#6118139)

Didn’t watch the match but I see Liverpool won xG.

With the major caveat that I turned on the game right as Madrid's second goal was being scored, I think the shot data kind of undersells Madrid's control of the game (or at least the roughly 2/3 of it that I watched). They regularly just dribbled right through Liverpool's midfield or made one simple pass and then it was on.

5. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 22, 2023 at 10:35 AM (#6118153)

When the score is way out of wack with xG, xG is often missing at least some of the nuance of the game, some of which likely is reflective of team quality. 538 incorporates actual score, along with xG and non-shot xG, all equally. I'm not sure that is the best balance, but at any rate it's clear to me score does tell you something beyond what xG alone can tell you.

All that said, I only saw parts of the game, but it seemed like there was a lot of easy traffic both ways. Non-shot xG favored Liverpool as well, incidentally. I'm not saying Liverpool was the better team, but it sure was way closer than a 3-goal difference. I would have guessed a draw to be the median result based on what I saw.

edit: and for all the dribbling right through midfield, Real Madrid only had 9 shots total, 5 of which they scored.

6. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 22, 2023 at 03:54 PM (#6118207)

Leipzig only had the one shot, fairly speculative, on the stroke of halftime.

I admit to being somewhat fascinated by games or long stretches where a team cannot even get a shot. It's usually the purest sign that a team is just outclassed and has no chance to win.

I don't expect City to be able to go 180 minutes allowing just that one shot, and would enjoy it a bit more if they played with more offensive urgency. On the other hand, they have the lead and are on the road, with 90 minutes coming up at home. If there is ever a time for City to be cautious it is now. I complain a lot that as the far better team they sometimes might be able to push more and increase their overall odds of winning (overcoming the increase in variance), but under this particular circumstance on the road in the first leg that seems somewhat doubtful.

7. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 22, 2023 at 04:25 PM (#6118210)

These round of 16 first legs are not that compelling, honestly. I'd prefer single-elimination somehow, at least this round. Maybe make the winners of the group stage have just the home game, though they will never do it. And soon the format is changing to even more non-compelling games under the saturated Swiss model, so that's nice.

I know I mentioned this a year ago, but I would really have liked the idea of the Swiss model if they used it but played far fewer group games than they plan to. It's not the model that is the problem, but the number of games.

8. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 22, 2023 at 04:37 PM (#6118213)

Well Leipzig sure showed up for the second half. Hard to believe this is the same team.

9. spivey Posted: February 22, 2023 at 06:24 PM (#6118225)

xG definitely doesn't tell the whole story, and don't mean to imply it would. But, there's a confirmation bias with the actual scoreline that I think tends to cause people - me too - to overrate the chances that were actually scored, like Vinicius' first.

I think it's fair to question Liverpool's chances and if they warrant the xG assigned to them (other than the Salah goal).

And of course, randomness/variance happens all over the pitch, not just on the final shot like xG measures.

I also, well, just feel like Jesse in Breaking bad with Madrid. They can't keep getting away with it!

10. jmurph Posted: February 23, 2023 at 08:28 AM (#6118269)

xG definitely doesn't tell the whole story, and don't mean to imply it would. But, there's a confirmation bias with the actual scoreline that I think tends to cause people - me too - to overrate the chances that were actually scored, like Vinicius' first.

Totally understood and my comment also wasn't intended to be "you can't trust xG!" I was just pointing out, having watched much of it, that it did feel pretty comfortable for Madrid in the second half.

I guess had it ended 2-2, I might have been wondering why Madrid wasn't able to turn their advantages into better shots. Luckily for them they have a guy who is on top of the world at the moment and they don't seem to need better shots.

11. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 23, 2023 at 09:39 AM (#6118270)

It wasn't just better shots that Real Madrid was lacking, it was almost any shots. After Alisson's mistake for the second goal, Real Madrid only had 4 shots the rest of the game. One was a speculative one from 30 yards, and the other three were goals, including a totally unmarked man on a free kick and a deflected goal that never would have gone in otherwise. It was hardly one-sided over this time.

Now, after Real Madrid went up a couple goals you can't blame them for trying to slow the game down and sit on their lead, but I'm not sure that's really what happened.

12. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 23, 2023 at 04:18 PM (#6118357)

I just hate, hate how announcers announce based on scoreline.

I didn't see the first 25 minutes today, but I watched the end of the first half where United was easily the better team for most of that time until de Gea made a mistake that almost cost them at the end. The announcers seemed to think they were getting horribly outplayed during that time specifically, simply because they were down a goal.

Then United scored in the second, and all of the sudden they are acting like the game has changed completely. It's so tiresome. It's a kind of emotional response to the scoreline that you might expect from unsophisticated fans, but I would hope we could expect more from announcers.

13. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 23, 2023 at 04:59 PM (#6118365)

It was fairly close, but United was the better team over two legs. Arsenal should be the Europa favorite now I would guess, but United must be a close second.

14. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 23, 2023 at 05:59 PM (#6118372)

United looks like the favorite actually. Maybe it is thought that Arsenal will have more other stuff on their mind? I'm not sure that is 100% correct but it could be.

15. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 23, 2023 at 07:42 PM (#6118388)

Europa pre-draw odds. 2 pots, with the group winners (asterisked) actually in the harder pot now. Might explain why United is favored over Arsenal.

united      28
arsenal     22      *
juventus    12
roma         5.5
sevilla      5
sociedad     4.5    *
betis        4.5    *
union        4
sporting     3.5
freiburg     3.5    *
leverkusen   2.5
shakhtar     1.5
feyenoord    1.5    *
fenerbache   1      *
st gilloise  0.75   *
ferencvaros  0.25   *

edit: also interesting how almost perfectly sorted by league it is...

16. spivey Posted: February 23, 2023 at 09:13 PM (#6118402)

Maybe it's just because the top teams in the CL don't seem so great this year, but man, Europa I feel like is pretty darn strong this year. Tons of CL quality teams - including United/Barca/Arsenal who are probably all top 10 teams right now.

17. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 23, 2023 at 10:04 PM (#6118411)

It was a very bad week for leagues outside the top 6 (including France and Portugal). None of them advanced at the expense of a top 6 league, except Shakhtar who advanced on penalties over Rennes. By ELO, no team outside the top 5 leagues is even in the top 40 of teams except Ajax, at #28.

18. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 23, 2023 at 11:03 PM (#6118428)

I meant top 6 leagues in that last post. After a great year last year, the Netherlands has not looked so special this year. Portugal on the other hand has done very well in Europe this year.

19. jmurph Posted: February 24, 2023 at 07:10 AM (#6118444)

And all the favorites avoid each other:
Union Berlin vs. Union Saint-Gilloise
Sevilla vs. Fenerbahce
Juventus vs. Freiburg
Bayer Leverkusen vs. Ferencvaros
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal
Manchester United vs. Real Betis
AS Roma vs. Real Sociedad
Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Feyenoord

20. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 24, 2023 at 09:37 AM (#6118448)

Teams from the same league couldn't face each other this round, so United got pretty much the hardest draw they could. Maybe Sociedad would have been harder. If United wins Europa they will have earned it based on the draw so far anyway.

Surprisingly, teams that faced each other in the group round were able to face off--and the Unions are doing just that. They played a couple 0-1 games in the group stages so better hang on to your hats for some high-octane thrillers there. The last game Union Saint-Gilloise played in Europa was actually against Union Berlin, so it's a bit silly.

In terms of difficulty, Sporting was probably an average draw for Arsenal this round, considering they could not face United. Sporting has looked very good at times in Europe, and at other times a bit mediocre. If they bring their game it won't be so easy for Arsenal.

21. aberg Posted: February 24, 2023 at 09:47 AM (#6118449)

My hope is to see a final four of Feyenoord, Fenerbahce, Freiburg, and Ferencvaros.

22. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 24, 2023 at 10:20 AM (#6118452)

Europa Round of 16 odds

Roma        51  49   Sociedad
Feyenoord   64  36   Shakhtar
Juventus    65  35   Freiburg
UnionBerlin 69  31   St Gilloise
Arsenal     73  27   Sporting
Sevilla     74  26   Fenerbahce
United      76  24   Betis
Leverkusen  82  18   Ferencvaros

Most of these are not expected to be truly competitive, but you never know.

23. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: February 24, 2023 at 10:26 AM (#6118454)

My hope is to see a final four of Feyenoord, Fenerbahce, Freiburg, and Ferencvaros.

Fabulous.

24. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 24, 2023 at 10:30 AM (#6118455)

Europa Conference Round of 16 odds

Gent        52  48  Basaksehir
LechPoznan  53  47  Djurgarden
Basel       56  44  Slovan
Lazio       60  40  AZ Alkmaar
Villarreal  73  27  Anderlecht
Fiorentina  77  23  Sivasspor
Nice        81  19  Sheriff
WestHam     89  11  AEK

25. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 24, 2023 at 01:05 PM (#6118477)

The idea that the Europa draw was especially bad for notable matchups misses the point that the pot breakdown made that unlikely. Considering the constraints, this is an average draw, or maybe even slightly above, for exciting matchups.

The only thing really missing is Arsenal facing an above average team from the other pot. The problem such as it is, is that 4 of the top 5 teams by expectation were in one pot, and the bottom 4 were in the other pot.

26. SoSH U at work Posted: February 24, 2023 at 02:41 PM (#6118494)

I don’t know Jose, aberg’s dream grouping seems pretty unfit to me.

27. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 24, 2023 at 03:16 PM (#6118501)

In Europa, the top 3 teams in group 2 are matched up against 3 of the top 4 teams in group 1 (the only missing one being Arsenal). That's not shabby at all.

By Forbes list, only United, Arsenal, Juventus, and Roma are in the list of top 20 clubs, so again if you don't get Arsenal against one of the other two then you have "no" notable matchups. Even by Transfermarkt you only get an additional Sociedad and Leverkusen in the top 25. Sociedad is against Roma already, and Leverkusen is also in pot 2, so it's still just that Arsenal didn't get a marquee matchup. (Note that I very much doubt facing Sporting is going to be any easier for Arsenal than Leverkusen, Union, or Sevilla anyway)

I'm not saying this draw was fantastic or anything--just what were we supposed to expect?

28. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 24, 2023 at 04:18 PM (#6118514)

Watching Fulham-Wolves. Wolves player goes down hurt but Wolves continue playing. Then when Fulham get the ball, Wolves are complaining that the ref doesn't stop the game. You already had the ball since he got hurt, you could have put it out yourself. Irritating.

29. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: February 25, 2023 at 08:34 AM (#6118575)

Gent 52 48 Basaksehir

Get bent...er, I mean, BET GENT!

30. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 25, 2023 at 10:31 AM (#6118590)

Pet peeve of mine is defenders holding down arms of the goalie and/or wide receivers, as that's what my much shorter younger brother did to me as "defense" when we used to play street football. Arsenal goal rightly ruled out there.

31. SoSH U at work Posted: February 25, 2023 at 10:54 AM (#6118592)

Pet peeve of mine is defenders holding down arms of the goalie and/or wide receivers, as that's what my much shorter younger brother did to me as "defense" when we used to play street football. Arsenal goal rightly ruled out there.

I was surprised how the guy doing the game didn't see anything until the final replay. It might not have been enough to wave off from the field angle, but it looked like the keeper had a legit argument and a VAR check was necessary from it.

32. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 25, 2023 at 12:48 PM (#6118596)

Leicester only had one shot in the game, from 25+ yards. I never thought they quite looked like they would score, but I didn't realize they also couldn't get any shots off.

33. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 25, 2023 at 01:24 PM (#6118599)

So this one is over. No slip up from City this week.

EPL winner odds:

city         49.5
arsenal      45
united        5.25
field         0.25

34. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 25, 2023 at 04:24 PM (#6118614)

Fabinho came on in the 71st minute, got a yellow in then 77th, and then was involved in 3 more incidents all by the 80th minute.

35. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 25, 2023 at 04:36 PM (#6118616)

This commentator on Peacock in Liverpool-Palace absolutely refuses to believe that something can still be a foul (and potentially a card) even if you get a piece of the ball.

36. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 25, 2023 at 04:39 PM (#6118617)

I didn't see all of the game, but in the parts I saw Liverpool did not look particularly good.

37. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 25, 2023 at 06:07 PM (#6118621)

Relegation odds:

bournemouth    71
southampton    71

everton        44
leeds          33
forest         32

wolves         19.5
west ham       12
leicester       9.5
palace          7.25

villa           0.5
field           0.25

Leeds eked out the win while Everton didn't play that badly but lost. Those two have switched places again. Forest coming back into play.

38. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 26, 2023 at 09:10 AM (#6118662)

Milner is only 4 appearances away from drawing level with Lampard for third most EPL appearances ever. Seems likely he will do that this year.

39. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 26, 2023 at 09:13 AM (#6118664)

Find it very bizarre that Kepa is time wasting in the first half of a 0-0 game. Surely Chelsea want more than just a draw from this game?

40. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 26, 2023 at 09:22 AM (#6118666)

What was Ziyech thinking there? That didn't deserve a straight red in my mind, but it well deserved a second yellow. It looks like they gave him a straight red anyway--and now withdrawn?

Ziyech is still very lucky as he could/should have gotten two yellows on the play.

41. Mefisto Posted: February 26, 2023 at 09:28 AM (#6118667)

The only thing I can figure is that he didn't get a yellow for the tackle (which he should have gotten).

42. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 26, 2023 at 09:30 AM (#6118668)

Oh... it was Havertz booked for the challenge not Ziyech. So that was the right call. I thought Ziyech made the tackle too.

43. Mefisto Posted: February 26, 2023 at 09:37 AM (#6118670)

Ziyech did, but his came after Havertz. So I guess that's right -- just one yellow on the play.

44. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 26, 2023 at 09:46 AM (#6118672)

Before today, Chelsea had 2 goals in their last 7 EPL games, on 10.5 xG. Throw in the loss at Dortmund and at City in the FA Cup, and you have 2 goals over the last 9.5 games, with about 12.5 xG. That sure is an incredible run.

45. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 26, 2023 at 11:33 AM (#6118681)

Top 4 odds:

city         98.5
arsenal      98.5

united       85

tottenham    43.75
newcastle    36.5
liverpool    29.5

brighton      6.5

fulham        0.75
brentford     0.5
chelsea       0.5

Tottenham and Liveprool switch places, with United/Newcastle/Brighton/Brentford out of action. Chelsea is basically toast now, and Europa is very unlikely too.

46. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 26, 2023 at 11:47 AM (#6118684)

If I were in charge, the rule would be that if a defenseive player gets hit by the free kick visibly closer than 10 yards from the kick, it's an automatic yellow for that player. At least after the ball has been placed and a subsequent whistle has gone. Should be the defense's obligation to get the #### out of the way.

If that's too harsh, then make an exception for players who are down when the play stops, and give defensive players 5 seconds to get our of the way if there is no restart whistle.

That kind of time wasting / interrupting the break tactic is effective but more importantly is a major drag on the fan experience.

47. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 26, 2023 at 12:05 PM (#6118688)

St Maximin making Dalot look utterly foolish on that best chance by Newcastle. That's where AWB would have come in handy.

48. I am going to be Frank Posted: February 26, 2023 at 12:06 PM (#6118689)

Is Casemeiro the signing of the season - even ahead of Haaland? Luke Shaw with a great cross.

49. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 26, 2023 at 12:09 PM (#6118690)

Weghorst seems mostly useless going forward, but he does defend diligently and well for a 9. Faint praise...

50. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 26, 2023 at 12:20 PM (#6118694)

In the EPL only once this year has Newcastle given up more goals than would have been expected by xG, in a 1-4 away win to Fulham. It's very likely to happen today.

51. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 26, 2023 at 12:32 PM (#6118696)

Karius sure takes a lot of ####. Keepers almost invariably get the benefit of a doubt when the ball takes even a little deflection. A ball going towards the corner on the ground is entirely different than one bouncing over your head. I don't blame Karius at all on that deflection, which was extremely fortunate for United.

52. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 26, 2023 at 01:00 PM (#6118700)

At least 5 times St Maximin has come up against AWB. First success there to win a corner. Most of the other times St Maximin hasn't really tried to get past him directly, in large part because AWB has played him carefully and given some ground.

53. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 26, 2023 at 01:17 PM (#6118709)

The quadruple is on! United's chance of winning 4 trophies: about 0.3%. IOW, significantly lower than City's chance to win a quadruple before even kicking the ball to start any recent season.

54. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 26, 2023 at 01:35 PM (#6118715)

That was a close game except for the scoreline. Who knows how it would have played out at 0-0 the whole game, but it didn't look to me like United was just coasting on their lead. United actually looked increasingly better the more Newcastle had to open it up towards the end.

55. Miserable, Non-Binary Candy is all we deserve CoB Posted: February 26, 2023 at 01:45 PM (#6118719)

It appears that Soon-to-Be Dismemberment United have defeated Already-Dismemberment United.

56. Mefisto Posted: February 26, 2023 at 02:10 PM (#6118725)

AWB is a much better defender than Dalot. I don't see the attraction to Dalot, but most of the coaches do so what do I know.

57. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 26, 2023 at 03:50 PM (#6118740)

It's the other parts of his game. Especially AWB's passing was poor today. For example, he made that superb sliding tackle in the Newcastle half to create a great break chance and then basically ruined the same chance with a poor pass. And a couple other times he either made the wrong pass on the break (or semi-break) or the right pass but too poorly so that it took the momentum out of the move.

In the game the other day AWB was bringing the ball towards the box in a dangerous spot and the entire defense played off him, expecting the pass or shot to be not that dangerous. And that's exactly what happened. You'd really prefer Dalot in that spot.

I'm not sure what United should do, and it probably depends on the situation. I can certainly understand why they wouldn't always want to play AWB though.

58. Mefisto Posted: February 26, 2023 at 04:32 PM (#6118748)

That's basically right: AWB is a below average passer. Thing is, Dalot is average or slightly above average while being a worse defender. Neither one is entirely satisfactory.

59. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 26, 2023 at 10:37 PM (#6118788)

By clubelo, Napoli is very close to matching its highest ranking ever, at #3. They are just a hair behind Real Madrid now in 4th. Arsenal has almost caught Liverpool finally, and United just passed Barcelona.

The England Premier League has done fairly well in Europe this year, which boosts the whole league slightly. Germany and Italy have also done even better though versus where they were this summer. Spain is the big loser at the top. By clubelo La Liga is now the third best league after the Bundesliga, and no longer way ahead of Serie A either.

ELO can get "fooled" by crazy runs of results though. The best example this year is Union, who are near the top of the Bundesliga (and 21st by ELO) despite being by all underlying stats just an extremely average Bundelsiga team (and, with negative xGD). They are the only team in the top 25 by ELO with a negative xGD, though by some systems Chelsea is also slightly in the red. The EPL is also the harder league.

60. jmurph Posted: February 27, 2023 at 09:03 AM (#6118811)

This Chelsea thing is fascinating (and hilarious). Everyone is talking about the lack of finishing, which is true, but as MCoA pointed out on twitter, they've only created 13.5 xG in 11 games, which is quite bad.

61. spivey Posted: February 27, 2023 at 09:48 AM (#6118818)

Yeah, I mean, Chelsea is 10th in xPoints. It's a good thing for them Kepa has finally come good, because their offense is really bad and doesn't seem like they know what to do.

It's a really tricky situation that Potter is in, but I thought he'd be doing better.

62. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 27, 2023 at 09:48 AM (#6118819)

Chelsea created almost nothing against Spurs yesterday, and given the recent history between these two clubs that's pretty shocking.

63. spivey Posted: February 27, 2023 at 10:20 AM (#6118830)

It's worth noting that Brighton is playing as well or better with De Zerbi instead of Potter, too.

64. jmurph Posted: February 27, 2023 at 10:24 AM (#6118833)

We had a discussion here about this at the time, but I think it's definitely still in play that Potter gets fired quickly and then his next job is worse than Brighton. Obviously with a big pile of Chelsea's money in his pocket so maybe it will be worth it, but as I said then I don't think taking this specific job at this specific moment should have been seen as a no-brainer.

He could also absolutely turn this around- their next league games are Leeds, Leicester, Everton, and Villa. Those are all very winnable.

65. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 27, 2023 at 12:55 PM (#6118860)

Chelsea's xG created has been that bad all year, in the EPL at least. It hasn't gotten any worse over the last 11 games than it was before. It's pretty much exactly average for the EPL, which to be fair is way below expectation for a team like Chelsea.

Their poor finishing has really put Potter on the hotseat, and that has all come over the last dozen or so games.

66. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 27, 2023 at 03:40 PM (#6118891)

By "average" above I mean "median for an EPL team". Chelsea's 1.2 to 1.3 xG per game, depending on who you ask, is decidedly below mean (not by that much, but still a bit). Median is below mean though, since even the very worst teams almost any year achieve over 0.8 per year, and the best ones can achieve 2+ per game, or 2.5+ per game in the case of City.

Goals per game in the EPL in recent years has been around 2.75. 2.69 so far this year.

67. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 27, 2023 at 10:38 PM (#6118965)

eyeballing the betting odds and projections, the expected quality of teams going forward for the last third of the season looks something like this:

city

arsenal
liverpool

united
chelsea
newcastle
tottenham

brighton
west ham

villa
leicester
brentford

fulham
leeds

wolves
palace

everton

southampton

forest
bournemouth

Brentford and Brighton still get little credit, and Fulham seems way too high. Hard to believe Chelsea will play that well the rest of the season, but bettors think so.

68. The_Ex Posted: February 28, 2023 at 02:55 AM (#6118979)

Did Brighton under Potter do well because of the excellent recruitment or because of the manager?

Are Chelsea struggling because of the bad and haphazard recruitment or because of the manager?

I don't know the answers but it is an interesting question.

69. jmurph Posted: February 28, 2023 at 07:45 AM (#6118982)

Are Chelsea struggling because of the bad and haphazard recruitment or because of the manager?

I don't feel like I know enough to evaluate Potter but I think it's just objectively true they've done a terrible job with transfers this season. Perhaps in a couple years they'll be vindicated? But at the very least they've pretty significantly overpaid for several guys.

It's also a weird mix of guys who are probably too young to be regular starters, guys who are probably past it, and some guys who just don't look to be good enough.

Excluding players returning from loans, Transfermarkt has them with 16 incoming transfers in 2022-23!

70. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: February 28, 2023 at 11:39 AM (#6119009)

The sheer amount of disinformation available about European football is just astonishing, especially if you're not familiar with the media environment and thus have trouble sifting the signal from the noise. (This is basically where I am.) The Daily Mail and many others are reporting that Graham Potter has a "two match deadline" to do something positive or he's out. Meanwhile, the Athletic reports that it's business as usual at Chelsea and he's in no danger at all. Oh, the Mudryk signing -- what a terrible signing! Except if Arsenal had made it, because then it would be a great signing. Arsenal is so smart for going cheap in January; look at what Troussard and Jorjinho are doing for them. Of course, if Chelsea had gone cheap, what a disaster that would have been, because the club is terrible and they need wholesale restructuring of the roster. With young players, like Mudryk. But the Mudryk signing was terrible!

And above all, the Chelsea clubhouse is a mess because nobody knows anybody! These professional athletes who change teams all the time are deeply upset because people are changing teams!

I don't know what to make of any of it, really, other than that Chelsea fans surely rival Mets fans for pure, self-flagellating hatred of their own favorite team.

71. SoSH U at work Posted: February 28, 2023 at 12:49 PM (#6119016)

I hope Potter gets canned and goes somewhere else and has success again. And Chelsea continues to flounder.

72. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 01, 2023 at 02:37 PM (#6119175)

Trossard starting over Nketiah against Everton.

73. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 01, 2023 at 03:41 PM (#6119185)

I thought that happened in the last Arsenal game as well.

edit: it did. Nketiah came on for Trossard in the 70th.

74. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 01, 2023 at 04:50 PM (#6119194)

And then there were three (with a realistic chance to win the FA cup). Spurs out. Sheffield Untied held them to few good chances and got their winner.

A couple unlikely xG results in this round. Fulham's mojo works in the FA cup too, it appears. 2-0 despite being badly outplayed (at least according to xG) by Leeds. Grimsby town wins on 2 penalties and nothing else.

75. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 01, 2023 at 04:58 PM (#6119195)

City hosts Burnley.
United hosts Fulham.
Brighton hosts Grimsby Town.
Sheffield United hosts Blackburn.

That's three big favorites and one decent favorite. The better teams are all at home. It wouldn't be very surprising if all 4 of the home teams advance. Chance of all the three big favorites advancing must be upwards of 50%.

76. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 01, 2023 at 05:57 PM (#6119199)

I guess one storyline is that it is Kompany v City.

77. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 01, 2023 at 06:24 PM (#6119205)

I thought that happened in the last Arsenal game as well.

Yeah, CW in Gunnerverse when Trossard came on was that he was there to challenge Martinelli, but when you think about it, as surprisngly good as Eddie has been, Trossard was obviously there to shore up the striker position.

78. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 01, 2023 at 08:37 PM (#6119215)

3 favorites in the FA cup are (combined) close to 92% to win the trophy.

79. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 01, 2023 at 08:39 PM (#6119216)

Arsenal is currently a tiny favorite over City for the EPL winner trophy. Liverpool still behind Spurs and Newcastle in the Top 4 race.

80. Richard Posted: March 01, 2023 at 09:08 PM (#6119223)

Grimsby have now beaten 5 teams from higher divisions during their cup run. They were last in the quarter finals in 1939.

Sheffield United Made 8 changes and still deservedly beat Spurs, who were very poor.

81. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: March 02, 2023 at 01:33 PM (#6119284)

One part of me thinks Spurs should have rotated less because this was theoretically a winnable trophy...but really, a rotated Spurs should still be able to handily beat a Championship team that also heavily rotated.

82. spivey Posted: March 02, 2023 at 01:46 PM (#6119287)

Spurs have had a terrible problem for about 5 years now that unless they play exactly their best 11 guys, they completely fall apart. That's mostly because many of their bench players, and indeed even many of their starters, are completely unable to pass, dribble, retain possession, or chance create at anything approaching an acceptable level for a CL level team.

Like, this team's defense falls apart without Romero, and the offense seems to fall apart without both Kulu and Kane.

83. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 03, 2023 at 09:11 AM (#6119375)

FA Cup odds to advance:

Brighton          92
City              90
United            78
Sheffield United  75

Two huge favorites and two large favorites. I was thinking the other day that the two United games were actually very similar. One of the best teams in its league, playing at home (barring a replay), against a mediocre/bad team (for its league) that has way overperformed in the standings and really should be in the relegation battle.

The chance of all 4 favorites advancing is very close to 50%

84. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 03, 2023 at 09:26 AM (#6119376)

Manchester United has drawn a home game in all 7 of the domestic cup draws (3 in the league cup, and 4 in the FA cup) this year. With the remaining games at Wembley if they advance, that's a perfect 7 for 7.

85. manchestermets Posted: March 03, 2023 at 11:51 AM (#6119387)

Manchester United has drawn a home game in all 7 of the domestic cup draws

And somehow, none of them was against Middlesbrough.

86. Richard Posted: March 03, 2023 at 07:58 PM (#6119435)

Sheffield United reached both cup semi finals in 2002-3, starting in the 1st round of the league cup and the 3rd round of the FA Cup, and were drawn at home in all 9 knock out ties and drawn at home first in the 2 leg league cup semi final. That’s the record for home draws in a season I think.

87. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 03, 2023 at 10:07 PM (#6119459)

Getting drawn at home 9 out of 9 is pretty nuts, and that really must be the record.

Zero credit for drawing first leg at home in a two-legged league cup semi though, and it might even be a disadvantage especially if you consider that extra time can only be played in the second leg. In fact, in 2002-2003 Sheffield United actually lost to Liverpool in extra time at Anfield in the second leg (on g goal by Michael Owen), who then went on to win then cup.

88. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 03, 2023 at 10:40 PM (#6119464)

In the premiere league era, teams playing the second leg of the EFL semi-final at home are 38-22, or 63%. That likely reflects some l random chance and probably more of the better teams getting the second leg at home, but it also suggests drawing the second leg at home is at least some advantage.

89. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 03, 2023 at 11:11 PM (#6119468)

As suspected, the teams finishing higher in the standings were at home slightly more often-- 32.5 times out of 60, or 54%. Not a perfect measure by any means, but (combined with second-leg home teams winning 63% of the time) some indication that playing home second helps.

edit: just realized the EFL had an extra time away goals rule for most of those years, which should mitigate some of the second leg HFA. Scrapped in 2018/2019. I don't think there has been an extra time winner since then, but before that home teams did get the win in extra time (before pens) more often than they lost, though there were only a handful of such results either way.

90. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 04, 2023 at 10:02 AM (#6119477)

Brighton completely dominated Newcastle in a game early this year, and could only emerge with a draw. Had they won, we might be talking about Brighton right now as the real top 4 upstart contender and not Newcastle.

Brighton has a better non-pen xGD and better xP/game than Newcastle now as well (and better than anyone else outside of City/Arsenal). The betting odds don't think they can keep it up, but it could get very interesting.

91. spivey Posted: March 04, 2023 at 10:13 AM (#6119479)

Well played Arsenal!

92. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 04, 2023 at 10:14 AM (#6119480)

By betting odds, City and Arsenal keep flipping as EPL favorites. Arsenal took over the lead with their win against Everton. City drew level with their win over Newcastle, and are now slightly in the lead again with Arsenal going down early. This has been tight for weeks now.

93. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 04, 2023 at 10:54 AM (#6119483)

Bournemouth goal was the second fastest in the prem of all time. #1 Shane Long

94. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 04, 2023 at 11:41 AM (#6119485)

Arsenal has had a lot of penalty shouts.

95. spivey Posted: March 04, 2023 at 11:57 AM (#6119486)

I think the ref may have given too much stoppage time there. But Arsenal takes advantage.

Tottenham, well, the less said the better.

96. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 04, 2023 at 11:58 AM (#6119487)

Maybe it's Arsenal's year after all...

97. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: March 04, 2023 at 12:35 PM (#6119492)

Tottenham, well, the less said the better.

The fact that they lost to the annual Adama Traore goal is a bit amusing.

98. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: March 04, 2023 at 03:48 PM (#6119507)

In general I'm Conte out, but this game isn't really the best reason. Spurs were clearly the better team on the day, but they lost. It's sport, it happens.

99. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 04, 2023 at 03:50 PM (#6119508)

Reiss Nelson.

That is all.

100. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 04, 2023 at 03:51 PM (#6119511)

Check it: Arsenal had possession 80% of the match. 31 shots. I don't even get that kind of possession in video games.

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