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Now, it wasn't a forceful push but it was on the replay I saw (I saw it live then one replay) enough to keep Nunes from getting to the ball. Would he have scored? Probably not but that's not the point. The defender pushed the attacker in the box, that's a penalty. If you want guys not to dive call the fouls when they happen.
With the major caveat that I turned on the game right as Madrid's second goal was being scored, I think the shot data kind of undersells Madrid's control of the game (or at least the roughly 2/3 of it that I watched). They regularly just dribbled right through Liverpool's midfield or made one simple pass and then it was on.
All that said, I only saw parts of the game, but it seemed like there was a lot of easy traffic both ways. Non-shot xG favored Liverpool as well, incidentally. I'm not saying Liverpool was the better team, but it sure was way closer than a 3-goal difference. I would have guessed a draw to be the median result based on what I saw.
edit: and for all the dribbling right through midfield, Real Madrid only had 9 shots total, 5 of which they scored.
I admit to being somewhat fascinated by games or long stretches where a team cannot even get a shot. It's usually the purest sign that a team is just outclassed and has no chance to win.
I don't expect City to be able to go 180 minutes allowing just that one shot, and would enjoy it a bit more if they played with more offensive urgency. On the other hand, they have the lead and are on the road, with 90 minutes coming up at home. If there is ever a time for City to be cautious it is now. I complain a lot that as the far better team they sometimes might be able to push more and increase their overall odds of winning (overcoming the increase in variance), but under this particular circumstance on the road in the first leg that seems somewhat doubtful.
I know I mentioned this a year ago, but I would really have liked the idea of the Swiss model if they used it but played far fewer group games than they plan to. It's not the model that is the problem, but the number of games.
I think it's fair to question Liverpool's chances and if they warrant the xG assigned to them (other than the Salah goal).
And of course, randomness/variance happens all over the pitch, not just on the final shot like xG measures.
I also, well, just feel like Jesse in Breaking bad with Madrid. They can't keep getting away with it!
Totally understood and my comment also wasn't intended to be "you can't trust xG!" I was just pointing out, having watched much of it, that it did feel pretty comfortable for Madrid in the second half.
I guess had it ended 2-2, I might have been wondering why Madrid wasn't able to turn their advantages into better shots. Luckily for them they have a guy who is on top of the world at the moment and they don't seem to need better shots.
Now, after Real Madrid went up a couple goals you can't blame them for trying to slow the game down and sit on their lead, but I'm not sure that's really what happened.
I didn't see the first 25 minutes today, but I watched the end of the first half where United was easily the better team for most of that time until de Gea made a mistake that almost cost them at the end. The announcers seemed to think they were getting horribly outplayed during that time specifically, simply because they were down a goal.
Then United scored in the second, and all of the sudden they are acting like the game has changed completely. It's so tiresome. It's a kind of emotional response to the scoreline that you might expect from unsophisticated fans, but I would hope we could expect more from announcers.
edit: also interesting how almost perfectly sorted by league it is...
Union Berlin vs. Union Saint-Gilloise
Sevilla vs. Fenerbahce
Juventus vs. Freiburg
Bayer Leverkusen vs. Ferencvaros
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal
Manchester United vs. Real Betis
AS Roma vs. Real Sociedad
Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Feyenoord
Surprisingly, teams that faced each other in the group round were able to face off--and the Unions are doing just that. They played a couple 0-1 games in the group stages so better hang on to your hats for some high-octane thrillers there. The last game Union Saint-Gilloise played in Europa was actually against Union Berlin, so it's a bit silly.
In terms of difficulty, Sporting was probably an average draw for Arsenal this round, considering they could not face United. Sporting has looked very good at times in Europe, and at other times a bit mediocre. If they bring their game it won't be so easy for Arsenal.
Most of these are not expected to be truly competitive, but you never know.
Fabulous.
The only thing really missing is Arsenal facing an above average team from the other pot. The problem such as it is, is that 4 of the top 5 teams by expectation were in one pot, and the bottom 4 were in the other pot.
By Forbes list, only United, Arsenal, Juventus, and Roma are in the list of top 20 clubs, so again if you don't get Arsenal against one of the other two then you have "no" notable matchups. Even by Transfermarkt you only get an additional Sociedad and Leverkusen in the top 25. Sociedad is against Roma already, and Leverkusen is also in pot 2, so it's still just that Arsenal didn't get a marquee matchup. (Note that I very much doubt facing Sporting is going to be any easier for Arsenal than Leverkusen, Union, or Sevilla anyway)
I'm not saying this draw was fantastic or anything--just what were we supposed to expect?
Get bent...er, I mean, BET GENT!
I was surprised how the guy doing the game didn't see anything until the final replay. It might not have been enough to wave off from the field angle, but it looked like the keeper had a legit argument and a VAR check was necessary from it.
EPL winner odds:
Leeds eked out the win while Everton didn't play that badly but lost. Those two have switched places again. Forest coming back into play.
Ziyech is still very lucky as he could/should have gotten two yellows on the play.
If that's too harsh, then make an exception for players who are down when the play stops, and give defensive players 5 seconds to get our of the way if there is no restart whistle.
That kind of time wasting / interrupting the break tactic is effective but more importantly is a major drag on the fan experience.
In the game the other day AWB was bringing the ball towards the box in a dangerous spot and the entire defense played off him, expecting the pass or shot to be not that dangerous. And that's exactly what happened. You'd really prefer Dalot in that spot.
I'm not sure what United should do, and it probably depends on the situation. I can certainly understand why they wouldn't always want to play AWB though.
The England Premier League has done fairly well in Europe this year, which boosts the whole league slightly. Germany and Italy have also done even better though versus where they were this summer. Spain is the big loser at the top. By clubelo La Liga is now the third best league after the Bundesliga, and no longer way ahead of Serie A either.
ELO can get "fooled" by crazy runs of results though. The best example this year is Union, who are near the top of the Bundesliga (and 21st by ELO) despite being by all underlying stats just an extremely average Bundelsiga team (and, with negative xGD). They are the only team in the top 25 by ELO with a negative xGD, though by some systems Chelsea is also slightly in the red. The EPL is also the harder league.
It's a really tricky situation that Potter is in, but I thought he'd be doing better.
He could also absolutely turn this around- their next league games are Leeds, Leicester, Everton, and Villa. Those are all very winnable.
Their poor finishing has really put Potter on the hotseat, and that has all come over the last dozen or so games.
Goals per game in the EPL in recent years has been around 2.75. 2.69 so far this year.
Brentford and Brighton still get little credit, and Fulham seems way too high. Hard to believe Chelsea will play that well the rest of the season, but bettors think so.
Are Chelsea struggling because of the bad and haphazard recruitment or because of the manager?
I don't know the answers but it is an interesting question.
I don't feel like I know enough to evaluate Potter but I think it's just objectively true they've done a terrible job with transfers this season. Perhaps in a couple years they'll be vindicated? But at the very least they've pretty significantly overpaid for several guys.
It's also a weird mix of guys who are probably too young to be regular starters, guys who are probably past it, and some guys who just don't look to be good enough.
Excluding players returning from loans, Transfermarkt has them with 16 incoming transfers in 2022-23!
And above all, the Chelsea clubhouse is a mess because nobody knows anybody! These professional athletes who change teams all the time are deeply upset because people are changing teams!
I don't know what to make of any of it, really, other than that Chelsea fans surely rival Mets fans for pure, self-flagellating hatred of their own favorite team.
edit: it did. Nketiah came on for Trossard in the 70th.
A couple unlikely xG results in this round. Fulham's mojo works in the FA cup too, it appears. 2-0 despite being badly outplayed (at least according to xG) by Leeds. Grimsby town wins on 2 penalties and nothing else.
United hosts Fulham.
Brighton hosts Grimsby Town.
Sheffield United hosts Blackburn.
That's three big favorites and one decent favorite. The better teams are all at home. It wouldn't be very surprising if all 4 of the home teams advance. Chance of all the three big favorites advancing must be upwards of 50%.
Yeah, CW in Gunnerverse when Trossard came on was that he was there to challenge Martinelli, but when you think about it, as surprisngly good as Eddie has been, Trossard was obviously there to shore up the striker position.
Sheffield United Made 8 changes and still deservedly beat Spurs, who were very poor.
Like, this team's defense falls apart without Romero, and the offense seems to fall apart without both Kulu and Kane.
Two huge favorites and two large favorites. I was thinking the other day that the two United games were actually very similar. One of the best teams in its league, playing at home (barring a replay), against a mediocre/bad team (for its league) that has way overperformed in the standings and really should be in the relegation battle.
The chance of all 4 favorites advancing is very close to 50%
And somehow, none of them was against Middlesbrough.
Zero credit for drawing first leg at home in a two-legged league cup semi though, and it might even be a disadvantage especially if you consider that extra time can only be played in the second leg. In fact, in 2002-2003 Sheffield United actually lost to Liverpool in extra time at Anfield in the second leg (on g goal by Michael Owen), who then went on to win then cup.
edit: just realized the EFL had an extra time away goals rule for most of those years, which should mitigate some of the second leg HFA. Scrapped in 2018/2019. I don't think there has been an extra time winner since then, but before that home teams did get the win in extra time (before pens) more often than they lost, though there were only a handful of such results either way.
Brighton has a better non-pen xGD and better xP/game than Newcastle now as well (and better than anyone else outside of City/Arsenal). The betting odds don't think they can keep it up, but it could get very interesting.
Tottenham, well, the less said the better.
The fact that they lost to the annual Adama Traore goal is a bit amusing.
That is all.
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