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Tuesday, February 21, 2023

OT Soccer Thread - Champions League Knockout Stages Begin

New soccer thread!

Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: February 21, 2023 at 04:16 PM | 315 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: off topic, soccer

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101. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 04, 2023 at 05:16 PM (#6119514)

Arsenal had possession 80% of the match. 31 shots.

While this is impressive no doubt, it's highly contextual and was the perfect storm for this to happen. Maybe the second best team in the league playing at home against the worst team in the league is one of the very biggest mismatches of the entire EPL season, and maybe the biggest outside of a handful of City home games against the bottom tier. On top of that, Arsenal was trailing from the tenth second of the game, didn't draw level until late, and didn't take the lead until the last kick. This is the type of game where you expect the possession and shots to be the most lopsided of any game the entire year.

538 had it as a negative performance by Arsenal. Considering the setting, the team quality, and the chances by Bournemouth, it was overall subpar by Arsenal.

That said, check out the non-shot xG: 4.1-0.4. That's really insane--maybe the most lopsided of any EPL game this year, and certainly one of the top few most lopsided.

edit: by 538, only once this year has a team had more than 4.1 non-shot xG, when City lost at home to Brentford 1-2 in a somewhat similar game. (Except, that City lost when Brentford scored the last second winner instead of the other way around, and Brentford had a ton of low xG shots, many from outside the area, racking up high overall shot xG).

102. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 05, 2023 at 12:05 AM (#6119531)

Maybe the second best team in the league playing at home against the worst team in the league is one of the very biggest mismatches of the entire EPL season, and maybe the biggest outside of a handful of City home games against the bottom tier. On top of that, Arsenal was trailing from the tenth second of the game, didn't draw level until late, and didn't take the lead until the last kick. This is the type of game where you expect the possession and shots to be the most lopsided of any game the entire year.

Well, yeah. This is a match that should have been a 2-0 gimme, had the team played even okay. It was a bad(ish) match with a good result. It's also the case that Bournemouth took four shots and scored two goals. Had one corner and scored off of it. Completed 184 passes to Arsenal's 740. Had a pass completion percentage of 57 to Arsenal's 88.

Football, like baseball, is a tough game in which the best team doesn't always win -- in which the team that plays best doesn't always win. But that's not what happened today. Bournemouth almost lucked its way into a huge upset. Arsenal lucked its way into a win it deserved, both on team quality and quality of play.

103. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 05, 2023 at 11:40 AM (#6119545)

Relegation odds:

bournemouth    73
southampton    64

everton        48

leeds          35
forest         32

west ham       14
leicester      13
wolves         10.5
palace         10

field           0.5

104. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 05, 2023 at 12:50 PM (#6119549)

Liverpool will be the clear favorite for most likely team to grab the 4th CL spot after today. United certainly haven't wrapped up a spot yet, but this loss won't hurt them to bad.

They have been very weak today though, and that's definitely a worse sign than merely losing all then points at Anfield.

105. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 05, 2023 at 12:59 PM (#6119552)

EPL winner odds:

arsenal      51
city         46.5
united        2.5

106. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 05, 2023 at 01:15 PM (#6119555)

United have played a fairly soft schedule in the league since coming back from the world cup. So are they a mirage? Not so fast. They lost badly to Arsenal during that stretch but also beat (and outplayed) City. They also beat Newcastle in the league cup and beat (and outplayed), Barcelona over two legs.

By quality, betting odds has them in the chasing pack of four teams, after City, then Arsenal/Liverpool. That's probably where they are, 7-0 or no.

Liverpool when they put it together is still better than any team in the league except City. After today they likely will be projected as slightly better than Arsenal for the last third of the season.

edit: GD coming into play at the end of the season is very unlikely, but due to this single game Liverpool likely will win a GD showdown against any team they would be level with on points, and United would likely lose one.

edit:
EPL winner odds:

arsenal      51
city         47
united        2

107. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 05, 2023 at 01:28 PM (#6119556)

By xG, this game wasn't very different from the Arsenal 3-2 victory over United. That one was 2.8 - 0.3 or so, with Arsenal also winning the non-shot 2.5-0.3. Today was 3.4-0.9, with just 2.0-0.9 non-shot. United was very badly beaten both games, but had all the finishing go their way in one, and all of it against them in the other.

108. SoSH U at work Posted: March 05, 2023 at 01:55 PM (#6119559)

but due to this single game Liverpool likely will win a GD showdown against any team they would be level with on points, and United would likely lose one.

It's even more due to Liverpool's first win of the season.

109. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 05, 2023 at 04:26 PM (#6119572)

After this weekend's games, Liverpool is back to being considered just a hair better than Arsenal. Then it's still probably Chelsea, United, Newcastle, Tottenham, in that order, all very close to one another. Maybe even a slight gap between Chelsea and the others.

110. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 06, 2023 at 03:15 PM (#6119685)

Brentford and Fulham have essentially the exact same number of points per game (just over 1.5) and a very similar GD. That's where the similarities end though. By npXGD there is almost a 20 goal difference. It's mostly not Brentford, who at worst have been just a tad unfortunate this season. It's all Fulham inexplicably getting virtually every bounce go their way this year.

Fulham is already down today though--already gave up 2 big chances and a goal (on a third chance), all in the first 6 minutes.

111. The Marksist Posted: March 06, 2023 at 03:34 PM (#6119687)

Have you seen the Fulham red card thing? They've played the most minutes against ten men in the PL by miles.

112. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 06, 2023 at 04:21 PM (#6119700)

Yep! And despite that they still have pretty much the worst non-pen xGD in the league. For a bad team, they have done very well on penalties called (not so much actually scored) also. So their total xGD is not terrible, just bad.

113. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 06, 2023 at 05:14 PM (#6119716)

Top 4 odds:

arsenal      99.5
city         99

united       82.5

liverpool    48.5

tottenham    29.5
newcastle    26

brighton     12

chelsea       1.5
brentford     1
fulham        0.5

114. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 06, 2023 at 05:24 PM (#6119726)

Top 6 odds. Even if you don't believe in Brighton for Top 4 yet (and maybe we should...), they are a serious contender for Europa.


Top 6 odds:
united       98

liverpool    83
tottenham    79
newcastle    70

brighton     48

chelsea      12
brentford     5
fulham        4
villa         1

115. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 07, 2023 at 09:37 AM (#6119781)

This weekend arguably does not feature even a single game where two top-half or two bottom-half EPL teams in quality face off against each other. The closest you have to a top half matchup in quality is probably Westham/Villa, where both teams are very mediocre in quality and actually in the bottom half of the table right now. The closest you have to a bottom half matchup might be Everton/Brentford, where Brentford is actually in the top half of the table right now and has performed so far very much like a top half team.

And no, Fulham/Arsenal is not a matchup of two top-half teams.

116. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 07, 2023 at 11:00 AM (#6119793)

I think West Ham and Villa are both in the bottom half. West Ham is still in relegation danger, though I would argue that as far as real quality goes they're far better than the teams that surround them in the table.

117. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 07, 2023 at 01:11 PM (#6119809)

Who are the top half teams, by quality, in your view?

FWIW, you can see on the previous page (post 67) that betting odds seems to think West Ham is a top half team, and Villa is right on the borderline. 538 thinks those two are 10th/11th currently, so smack midtable, with West Ham ahead of Villa. For the game itself, West Ham is 44% to win, with Villa at 28%. That's slightly above HFA advantage in the prem, implying again that West Ham is just slightly better this weekend.

By ELO, Villa is in the top half, just barely, with West Ham out of course since they have a poor record this year. Not by much though.

There are 7 teams that are pretty clearly worse than both of them. I'd throw Leicester and Leicester in there too, especially as compared to West Ham. That just leaves Brentford, who have played so well this year but had low expectations coming in, so are a bit hard to peg.

118. spivey Posted: March 07, 2023 at 01:47 PM (#6119817)

Ivan Toney is also the best player on Brentford imo, and it's unclear what happens to him with the betting scandal. My guess is the can is kicked down the road to next season?

119. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 07, 2023 at 01:55 PM (#6119818)

I meant Leicester and Leeds above, rather than "Leicester and Leicester", which sounds like the name of a law or real estate firm.

120. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 07, 2023 at 03:57 PM (#6119831)

Finally. Chelsea has been so much better than Dortmund over 135 minutes it was hard to understand how they were still trailing in the tie.

121. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 07, 2023 at 04:20 PM (#6119832)

Pretty sure they would not have given this on VAR anymore in the EPL. Arsenal had at least two shouts in the last game that were more blatant than this one, maybe three. None given.

122. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 07, 2023 at 04:23 PM (#6119833)

I hate the stutter step, and it should be disallowed. It's especially terrible here where it arguably caused the Dortmund player to encroach, giving Chelsea a second shot at this.

edit: well Chelsea really should have been in front already, but I would have very much preferred it had happened some other way.

123. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 07, 2023 at 04:25 PM (#6119834)

Who are the top half teams, by quality, in your view?

Oh, I was just glancing at the table.

124. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 07, 2023 at 04:31 PM (#6119835)

In reality, though, just kind of pulling stuff out of my butt, the only team in the top half of the table that obviously doesn't belong there is Fulham. Maybe Brentford. I'm not convinced that Villa and West Ham are both better than Brentford at this point, and going forward it's pretty obvious that Rice and Paqueta are gone soon, probably this summer. At which point it's probably another rebuilding project at London Stadium.

125. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 07, 2023 at 04:49 PM (#6119840)

Chelsea had two goals ruled out on offside calls that were much closer than they originally looked.

126. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 07, 2023 at 05:07 PM (#6119843)

I understand when protecting a lead late teams should prioritize defense. What I have never understood is why so many teams playing defense look like their offensive brains turn into mush the minute they get possession of the ball, and especially when they are on then break. Chelsea again today.

edit: Chelse had just the one shot after taking the lead in the 53rd minute, from way outside the box. Dortmund had at least 10, and about 0.75 xG after that. Chelsea survived, but Potter has to think about how to play better in these situations. The same thing happened when Chelsea won against Leeds last weekend, also going ahead very early in the second after totally dominating Leeds for 50+ minutes. Chelsea were very lucky that they managed to not allow a goal over the two games in that scenario.

127. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 07, 2023 at 06:08 PM (#6119858)

I'm not sure Chelsea is a top 8 team in Europe at the moment, but they are definitely top 8 in the CL, so going this far was expected. Making the last 4 would be a bonus.

I'd have them as 5th-7th best of the last 16, after City/Bayern/RealMadrid/Liverpool, around PSG/Napoli, and ahead of Dortmund/Leipzig/Tottenham/Inter/Milan and Benfica/Porto/Frankfurt and Brugge.

FWIW, 538 has them as #11 in the world, and 8th of the final 16 CL teams, behind both PSG and Napoli, but also Leipzig.

128. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 07, 2023 at 07:10 PM (#6119863)

Before the round of 16 draw, Chelsea was considered about even with Napol and well behind PSG (and ahead of the other nine teams). Since then, Chelsea and PSG have struggled a bit with Napoli doing very well. That means maybe now Chelsea would be viewed as 7th best. With Liverpool and PSG likely dropping out, they would be 5th best of the remaining teams, ahead of Benfica, the Tottenham/Milan winner, and the Inter/Porto winner.

129. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: March 07, 2023 at 09:27 PM (#6119879)

Did they say on the broadcast why the PK was retaken? I was watching in a bar and at least one Chelsea player had moved early also. And yeah the stutter step has to go.

130. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 07, 2023 at 10:19 PM (#6119880)

The Dortmund player that cleared the ball was one of the encroaching players, and I believe was also the first to touch it (which I think is part of the rule). Four Dortmund players actually encroached--or at least 3.5. Two Chelsea players also half encroached as well. I think if any of those three Dortmund players (and maybe the fourth) had touched it first it would have been retaken. If either of the two Chelsea players (assuming they were viewed as encroaching) had touched it first and Chelsea scored off the play it would have been disallowed.

I have no problem with this rule in general. You have to have a bright line here in my view. It just rarely comes up because the ball fairly seldom comes back into play off the GK or post in the first place, only some players encroach on any given kick, and the ball has to come back into play to one of them where the outcome is affected (either by the defense clearing or the offense scoring). On the other hand, when there is a stutter step involved it starts getting really annoying because the kicker has effectively also fooled the defenders into encroaching.

131. Bret Sabermatrician Posted: March 08, 2023 at 04:46 AM (#6119904)

At least according to the English FA:

If the defending team enters the box:
Missed Kick - Retake
Made Kick - Goal

If attacking team enters box:
Missed Kick - Indirect free kick for defense
Made Kick - Retake

If both teams enter the box:
Retake kick no matter outcome

Doesn't appear to matter who touches it after. It would just be nice if they call it consistently both ways.

132. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 08, 2023 at 06:20 AM (#6119907)

In the RPL for VAR to overrule the encroaching player has to have a material impact, which is what happened here but usually does not. Also, for VAR to intervene, the encroaching player must have actually stepped into the area (not just have his upper body over the line). By this rule, it was called clearly correctly. Is there any evidence the VAR overturn is applied inconsistently? I’ve never seen any.

133. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 08, 2023 at 06:22 AM (#6119908)

Sorry should have said “direct impact” above.

134. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 08, 2023 at 08:50 AM (#6119917)

Reading further, maybe the retake should not have been given, but only because the rule is even more specific:

The rules stipulate that if both teams encroach during a penalty, a retake would be awarded. This is one of the important lines in the VAR handbook: "And regardless of who plays the ball, if players from both teams encroach on a miss, it's a retake."

The handbook continues: "A defender who encroached prevents an attacker playing or being able to play the ball in a situation where a goal might be scored."

While the ball was cleared by one of the Dortmund players that encroached, there was not a Chelsea player there that looked like they would have been able to play the ball. So probably should not have been given.

Four Dortmund players encroached and one Chelsea player did as well. None of the encroachment by the others were at all relevant to the call except for the one Dortmund player who cleared the ball.

135. spivey Posted: March 08, 2023 at 09:54 AM (#6119923)

Don't know how relevant it is here, but one interesting thing with betting lines I observed with last year's NBA playoffs.

The Nets had very, very good title futures odds, better than Boston, basically right up until they played each other, and Boston was favored in the individual games, even though, IIRC the Nets still had better title odds at most books.

IOW, I do wonder if the amount of money already bet on some of these season-long bets makes them drift less than we'd expect (and there is a lot of juice in these, so that's probably less exploitable since sharps aren't playing them).

The reason I bring this up is I just don't see how Chelsea should be considered equal in quality to Napoli.

136. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 08, 2023 at 10:17 AM (#6119925)

Chelsea is no longer equal to Napoli in the odds. They were back in November when the draw for the KOs was being done at the end of the group stage. Coming into the year they were viewed as superior. I don’t think that is unreasonable.

The EPL is much better than Serie A also, and Chelsea is currently viewed as the 4th best team in the EPL.

137. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 08, 2023 at 10:20 AM (#6119926)

At the moment with both qualified for the quarters and pre-draw, Napoli is at 11% and Chelsea 8%.

538 is similar to this, had them also as basically even in November, and had Chelsea as significantly better in August. I don’t think there is really anything special going on here. There are definitely other situations where odds look more surprising.

138. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 08, 2023 at 03:58 PM (#6119964)

Spurs playing with no urgency or ideas despite being behind. Basically no shots from either side is not exactly the way to advance when down a goal.

139. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 08, 2023 at 04:18 PM (#6119967)

Bayern were extremely unlucky on that offside goal. Both attackers were onside on the original cross, and either would have scored without the presence of the other. Muller went for the ball pretty much off the first pass, and it was likely hard for him to thing about pulling off after it touched the other attacker (whose touch made Muller offside). That Muller didn't even get a touch on the ball at all and it still went in makes the play all the more poignant.

edit: well probably no matter, as Bayern have scored off a PSG mistake. PSG was looking pretty good today in the first half, but in the second so far not so much.

140. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 08, 2023 at 04:27 PM (#6119968)

Announcers claiming Bayern is the favorite to win the CL. Not even close to correct, considering that at no point have City been anything other than the heavy favorite. Bayern has played themselves into very solidly second favorite though.

141. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 08, 2023 at 04:31 PM (#6119970)

Announcers playing the silly announce to the scoreline game again. For most of the first half they were exclaiming how PSG had the better of it for most of the half despite being on the road. Now that Bayern are ahead today the victory was never in doubt and they "haven't put a foot wrong".

142. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 08, 2023 at 05:26 PM (#6119972)

A pretty sad performance all around by Tottenham. Milan is likely to be the least fancied team to make the quarters too (yes, even behind Benfica, but maybe not behind Porto if Porto can pull the upset next week), so it was not even as if their competition was that great.

143. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: March 09, 2023 at 06:57 AM (#6120006)

Conte can't go soon enough. No goals in three games. No attacking ideas whatsoever, other than hoping one wingback finds another wingback on a cross, or maybe scoring from a set piece. I'm really not sure what happened this season, they actually were very good in the second half of last season.

144. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 09, 2023 at 10:30 AM (#6120018)

Rumor is that Spurs are pushing hard for Spain honcho Luis Enrique. He's been successful despite being kind of famously tempestuous -- famously chose 0 Real Madrid players for the Euro 2020 squad but then had a good tournament. He's never really successfully rebuilt a team the way it seems Spurs kind of needs, and he never stays anywhere more than a few years before wearing out his welcome or quitting. Should be interesting if they actually do hire him.

145. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 09, 2023 at 02:43 PM (#6120040)

I certainly was wrong about the battle of the Unions. 3-3 after 90. Arsenal 2-2 art Sporting, so wil have to win it in the home leg.

146. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 09, 2023 at 03:21 PM (#6120042)

Claudio Bravo will be 40 in 35 days.

147. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 09, 2023 at 04:41 PM (#6120044)

edit: Well what I wrote was wrong.

This has just been a very lopsided game from the start. Betis was not ready to compete today. United trying to get back all the xG they lost to Liverpool.

148. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 09, 2023 at 04:54 PM (#6120046)

These Europa league ties were expected to be fairly lopsided. The favorites had 5 wins (4 by multiple goals) and 3 draws (2 on the road), so all are still favored to advance. Most of the favorites were at home though. Only Arsenal and Feyenoord were away.

The only favorite that did not win at home was Union Berlin, who should have won.

149. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 11, 2023 at 09:15 AM (#6120141)

There are actually some people who think that Bournemouth play should not have been a handball. I do not understand that at all. That was about as clear a handball as you will ever get under the rules as they have been called in the last few years.

Salah missed anyway.

Liverpool/Tottenham/Newcastle are back in a virtual tie for CL spot hopes again.

150. spivey Posted: March 11, 2023 at 09:37 AM (#6120148)

Job done.

151. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 11, 2023 at 10:05 AM (#6120156)

Spurs and Everton have both already scored. So often these games start slow, and we can go 30+ minutes without a goal across 6 games.

Or not.

152. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: March 11, 2023 at 10:12 AM (#6120157)

You will never convince me that Richarlison was offside there.

153. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 11, 2023 at 10:13 AM (#6120158)

Chelsea scored a goal AGAIN? I can hardly believe it.

154. SoSH U at work Posted: March 11, 2023 at 10:15 AM (#6120160)

Chelsea scored a goal AGAIN? I can hardly believe it.

And should have immediately yielded one.

155. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 11, 2023 at 10:36 AM (#6120162)

Joao Felix can't buy a goal for love or money these days.

156. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 11, 2023 at 10:48 AM (#6120163)

That should have been a penalty against Chelsea. How can you possibly justify jumping in the wall with your elbow out? Facing straight at the ball, without even the slightest bit of twisting. If that's allowed, every player in the wall should be doing that every time.

157. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 11, 2023 at 10:49 AM (#6120164)

This is my first time seeing Mudryk playing in the middle. You can see better what Arsenal wanted him for in this role. On the wing he's basically redundant with Saka and Martinelli, and not as good as either. He looks clever and smooth playing a more central role, though.

158. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 11, 2023 at 10:51 AM (#6120165)

Now that was an excellent goal.

159. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 11, 2023 at 10:53 AM (#6120166)

Havertz with the most casual of celebrations, on a casual-looking but incredibly skillful goal.

160. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 11, 2023 at 11:35 AM (#6120168)

Chelsea has lived a bit of a charmed life today.

161. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 11, 2023 at 11:37 AM (#6120169)

Good God, Mudryk is fast.

162. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 11, 2023 at 11:41 AM (#6120170)

I feel like you can already sense the narrative shifting from "Graham Potter is a moron who should be fired" to "Graham Potter is a genius who rejuvenated Chelsea."

163. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: March 11, 2023 at 11:57 AM (#6120172)

I did my share of complaining about Forster, but he's been very good since the 4-1 Leicester loss. 3-2 would have been a ridiculous result for this game.

164. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 11, 2023 at 12:34 PM (#6120174)

Whenever City wears these jerseys I think they look like a swarm of bees.

165. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 11, 2023 at 12:36 PM (#6120175)

Jesus, City is deep. Like, you think about Haaland and De Bruyne. But then there's Grealish and Foden and Gudogan and Silva. Every time I watch them my head spins a little.

166. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 11, 2023 at 01:04 PM (#6120177)

Good Lord, Liverpool lost to Bournemouth. What is up with that team? It's like they're all on drugs half the time.

167. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 11, 2023 at 02:04 PM (#6120185)

Oh, dear. A penalty. Palace is going to lose this on a penalty.

EDIT: There it is. I would estimate that there is a roughly 0% chance that Palace is going to be able to score.

168. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 11, 2023 at 02:15 PM (#6120188)

For a player who likes to ##### about other teams playing dirty, John Stones sure is a brute.

169. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 11, 2023 at 02:22 PM (#6120190)

No shots on target for Palace for 3 straight games, which I think the announcers were saying is a record.

170. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 11, 2023 at 03:37 PM (#6120195)

The guys on The Athletic's soccer podcast thought just 2 was already a record, though they didn't look it up.

171. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: March 11, 2023 at 04:46 PM (#6120197)

There are actually some people who think that Bournemouth play should not have been a handball. I do not understand that at all. That was about as clear a handball as you will ever get under the rules as they have been called in the last few years.

I agree that under the current rules it is a clear penalty. I just happen to think it's a stupid fucking rule.

172. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 11, 2023 at 06:56 PM (#6120205)

Arsenal and City are exactly even in betting odds for the title right now. United at just over 1% taking up the rest. Top 4 odds and Relegation odds all tightened as well.

173. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 12, 2023 at 09:44 AM (#6120230)

Gabriel Jesus is on the roster but not starting today.

174. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 12, 2023 at 10:31 AM (#6120231)

Welp. Fulham looking terrible and Arsenal taking advantage. I expected this to be a tough match. I guess I shouldn't jinx it, but Arsenal's in another league at the moment.

Though I was thinking about Arsenal's roster v. City's. Who in Arsenal's first team could crack City's? Saka could push Foden, maybe. Odegaard isn't going to displace De Bruyne, though he could give Silva a run for his money. Really -- Saliba, I guess? We already know Zinchenko and Gabriel Jesus were seen as surplus by Guardiola & co.

175. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 12, 2023 at 10:36 AM (#6120232)

Casemiro off with a red. We've seen worse tackles, but it wasn't a good one either, and little complaint from United.

United will have a hard time winning this one now.

176. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 12, 2023 at 10:40 AM (#6120233)

Fulham is bad. I don't understand their voodoo this year, and don't expect it to continue. Of course, any team can be decent at home, but there was no special reason to think this would be a hard game for Arsenal.

177. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 12, 2023 at 10:49 AM (#6120234)

Southampton should really play for the win today, up a man. Their position in the table basically means they need to try to take every possible advantage they can, and he risk/reward is now worth it for them.

As sometimes happens in these situations though, the opposite from what you would expect has happened. United has looked far more aggressive and frankly better down to 10, and Southampton now looks overly cautious after a bright start at even strength.

178. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 12, 2023 at 10:59 AM (#6120235)

By understat, after today Fulham will have the worst non-pen xGD in the league. They have played an average schedule too, so they could very easily finish the season in last as well. They do have good competition from another few teams though.

fbref has them as close to but not last (once you factor out penalties and take into account the games today). I think only Bournemouth will be worse after today. Bournemouth has a much lower total xGD, because Bournemouth has been especially bad at giving up penalties. So, to the extent you actually think penalties should not be completely ignored but just regressed somewhat (and I do think this), then Bournemouth has still been significantly worse than Fulham, in xGD at least.

edit: Fulham is +3 in penalties called for/against. Among the bottom half of the league in non-pen xGD, only Southampton is positive in this category, at +1. All others are flat or negative.

179. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 12, 2023 at 11:16 AM (#6120236)

Gabby Jesus warming up on the sidelines. This feels like Christmas or something.

180. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 12, 2023 at 11:34 AM (#6120239)

Both teams playing for the win in this Southampton/United game, so it is quite open.

181. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 12, 2023 at 11:43 AM (#6120240)

Announcers now claiming that Southampton "might think a point is now enough". WTF game are they watching?

182. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 12, 2023 at 11:54 AM (#6120241)

That wasn't the highest quality game, but it sure was fun to watch due to how wide open both sides played the second half.

183. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 12, 2023 at 12:01 PM (#6120242)

EPL winner odds:

arsenal       58
city          41.5
united         0.5

184. Mefisto Posted: March 12, 2023 at 12:11 PM (#6120243)

That United/Southampton game was about as entertaining as a goalless draw can be.

185. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 12, 2023 at 05:45 PM (#6120264)

EPL winner odds:

arsenal      57.5
city         42
united        0.5

Top 4 odds:

city         99.5

united       79

tottenham    39
newcastle    35
liverpool    33

brighton     11.5

chelsea       2.5
brentford     0.5

Top 6 odds:

united       96

tottenham    82.5
newcastle    77
liverpool    73

brighton     44.5

chelsea      19

brentford     3.5
fulham        2.5
villa         2

Relegation odds:

southampton  62
bournemouth  57

forest       41
everton      40
leeds        37.5

leicester    19.5
west ham     17.5
wolves       13.5
palace       12

186. jmurph Posted: March 13, 2023 at 03:00 PM (#6120316)

The Berhalter report is finished, and boy do the Reynas seem like a nightmare of a family!

187. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 13, 2023 at 03:18 PM (#6120318)

If Gio Reyna really wants to help his career right now, he'd immediately "disown" (maybe not literally) his parents, put his head down and work hard for the next year. I very much doubt it goes that way, but right now I'm looking at him as quite toxic.

188. jmurph Posted: March 13, 2023 at 03:41 PM (#6120324)

Twitter recap for the non Athletic readers.

189. SoSH U at work Posted: March 13, 2023 at 03:48 PM (#6120326)

It's nice to see Claudio tossed in some casual misogyny in addition to his other charming actions.

190. jmurph Posted: March 13, 2023 at 03:53 PM (#6120329)

Who among us wouldn't publicly humiliate longtime friends and reveal ourselves to the world to be terrible people in order to seek revenge for, uhhh, our adult son not really facing any real consequences for acting like a jackass? Totally worth it.

191. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 14, 2023 at 03:08 PM (#6120410)

12 groups of 4 teams each at WC 2026. That was a bit of a given especially after the ridiculous final group game capitulations this last year. 8 3rd place team in an extra full round of 32, so that kind of sucks.

192. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 14, 2023 at 05:06 PM (#6120417)

In 2026, there won't be any team remotely good from Africa/Asia/NorthAmerica/Oceania missing out on the tournament. There will still be a team or two from South America and several from Europe that will likely feel hard done by.

193. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 14, 2023 at 05:18 PM (#6120419)

5 goals for Haaland in under an hour. (edit: and then subbed out.)

194. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: March 14, 2023 at 05:19 PM (#6120420)

There will still be a team or two from South America and several from Europe that will likely feel hard done by.

Because everyone loves FM stories...one of my national teams got robbed (to me, anyway) of WC qualification even with the expanded format. Went 5-2-1 in the group and that wasn't one of the best second-place teams!

195. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 14, 2023 at 05:57 PM (#6120423)

Inter cleared the ball off the line, then had a great save to have the ball hit the post, and then a third shot from Porto hit the bar. All in less than a minute right at the end of the game. Shot chart shows 5 shots from the center areas of the box in the added time. Inter survives anyway.

Three Serie A teams likely to make the quarters now. Not sure when that last happened. (edit: 2005-2006, with Juve, Inter, and Milan. None of the three reached the final.) Since that year, they only ever only had two in the quarters two other times, once the very next year, and another time in I think 2014-2015.

It's been a very good year for Italian teams in Europe. By ELO, German and English teams have also exceeded expectations, though not by as much, while Spanish teams have done poorly.

196. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: March 14, 2023 at 05:58 PM (#6120424)

How in the world did Porto not score in the added time? Jeez.

197. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 14, 2023 at 06:20 PM (#6120427)

With Napoli and RealMadrid virtually through, pre-draw overall CL odds can be estimated now. As always, pre-draw odds are a good proxy for expected relative team strength.

city        35
bayern      25
realmadrid  12.5
napoli      11
chelsea      7.5
inter        3.5
benfica      3.5
milan        2

With the exception of Benfica, these are actually very similar to 538.

198. spivey Posted: March 14, 2023 at 06:20 PM (#6120428)

You know the bald fraud is cooking up something special when reddit is broken. Can we go 2 weeks now without articles about how Haaland is holding City back and how Pep is holding Haaland back?

199. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 14, 2023 at 06:54 PM (#6120434)

Haaland's 5 goals were a penalty and 5 close-range rebounds. He did other good work too though, so it wasn't all just being in the right place. He had 3.5 xG (infogol) all by himself. I'm actually a little surprised it was not higher.

And DeBruyne probably actually had an even better game. He was very good.

200. Mefisto Posted: March 14, 2023 at 09:13 PM (#6120440)

Not to detract from Haaland, but Lewandowski once came off the bench for the second half and scored 5 against Dortmund. Solskjaer once scored 4 after coming on in the 90th minute.

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