User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
Page rendered in 0.4773 seconds
45 querie(s) executed
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Tuesday, February 21, 2023
OT Soccer Thread - Champions League Knockout Stages Begin
New soccer thread!
Jose is an Absurd Sultan
Posted: February 21, 2023 at 04:16 PM | 275 comment(s)
Login to Bookmark
Tags: off topic, soccer
Tags: off topic, soccer
Login to submit news.
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.
Hot Topics
Newsblog: Reds would reportedly consider trading Joey Votto to Blue Jays if he asked for it
(26 - 5:30pm, Mar 21)
Last: Howie Menckel
Sox Therapy: The Rostah
(169 - 5:28pm, Mar 21)
Last: villageidiom
Newsblog: Braves option Grissom to minors, clearing Arcia to start at SS
(6 - 5:18pm, Mar 21)
Last: John Reynard
Hall of Merit: Reranking Center Fielders Ballot
(7 - 5:15pm, Mar 21)
Last: kcgard2
Newsblog: Why MLB Feels RSN Pinch More Than Other Leagues
(4 - 4:30pm, Mar 21)
Last: Walt Davis
Newsblog: Japan plates 2 in ninth, ousts Mexico in World Baseball Classic
(20 - 4:23pm, Mar 21)
Last: weiss-man
Newsblog: Altuve suffers broken thumb in Venezuela's WBC loss to Team USA
(35 - 4:02pm, Mar 21)
Last: Walt Davis
Newsblog: Phillies Release Mark Appel
(12 - 3:41pm, Mar 21)
Last: Walt Davis
Newsblog: OT - 2023 March Madness thread
(59 - 2:46pm, Mar 21)
Last: spivey
Newsblog: Spring training OMNICHATTER 2023
(108 - 2:21pm, Mar 21)
Last: Howie Menckel
Newsblog: OT Soccer Thread - Champions League Knockout Stages Begin
(275 - 12:46pm, Mar 21)
Last: spivey
Hall of Merit: 2024 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion
(82 - 11:11am, Mar 21)
Last: DL from MN
Newsblog: 2023 NBA Regular Season Thread
(1230 - 9:34am, Mar 21)
Last: spivey
Sox Therapy: Updates
(97 - 8:05am, Mar 21)
Last: pikepredator
Newsblog: The legend of Shlomo Lipetz, WBC Team Israel's 44-year-old 'mythical figure'
(3 - 10:36pm, Mar 20)
Last: kirstie819
(26 - 5:30pm, Mar 21)
Last: Howie Menckel
Sox Therapy: The Rostah
(169 - 5:28pm, Mar 21)
Last: villageidiom
Newsblog: Braves option Grissom to minors, clearing Arcia to start at SS
(6 - 5:18pm, Mar 21)
Last: John Reynard
Hall of Merit: Reranking Center Fielders Ballot
(7 - 5:15pm, Mar 21)
Last: kcgard2
Newsblog: Why MLB Feels RSN Pinch More Than Other Leagues
(4 - 4:30pm, Mar 21)
Last: Walt Davis
Newsblog: Japan plates 2 in ninth, ousts Mexico in World Baseball Classic
(20 - 4:23pm, Mar 21)
Last: weiss-man
Newsblog: Altuve suffers broken thumb in Venezuela's WBC loss to Team USA
(35 - 4:02pm, Mar 21)
Last: Walt Davis
Newsblog: Phillies Release Mark Appel
(12 - 3:41pm, Mar 21)
Last: Walt Davis
Newsblog: OT - 2023 March Madness thread
(59 - 2:46pm, Mar 21)
Last: spivey
Newsblog: Spring training OMNICHATTER 2023
(108 - 2:21pm, Mar 21)
Last: Howie Menckel
Newsblog: OT Soccer Thread - Champions League Knockout Stages Begin
(275 - 12:46pm, Mar 21)
Last: spivey
Hall of Merit: 2024 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion
(82 - 11:11am, Mar 21)
Last: DL from MN
Newsblog: 2023 NBA Regular Season Thread
(1230 - 9:34am, Mar 21)
Last: spivey
Sox Therapy: Updates
(97 - 8:05am, Mar 21)
Last: pikepredator
Newsblog: The legend of Shlomo Lipetz, WBC Team Israel's 44-year-old 'mythical figure'
(3 - 10:36pm, Mar 20)
Last: kirstie819
About Baseball Think Factory | Write for Us | Copyright © 1996-2021 Baseball Think Factory
User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
Not quite, but actually better. It was against Wolfsburg...and he got the 5 goals in 8 minutes and 59 seconds. It was insane. Oh, and Bayern was down 1-0 when he came on.
My ideal draw would have city not facing bayern yet, and none of the teams from the same countries facing each other.
538 thinks Fiorentina is the favorite, but betting odds does not.
United becomes an even bigger favorite for Europa now. Juve/Roma second and third.
non-shot xG was a slaughter over two legs (5.2-1.7, per 538), but Sporting played their underdog game well and had about 3 xG total, and got 3 goals. They also didn't let Arsenal's dangerous possession hurt them too much or even lead to an overabundance of good chances. Arsenal certainly did get a fair amount of good chances though and really should have won the tie.
Those United odds seem really high, though I do expect them to go all out to win this. I wouldn't put them at much over 30%. Sevilla sucks, but Juve/Roma/Leverkusen/Sporting are all quite decent and any could beat United. Even Feyenoord has had a very good year so should not be counted out.
These Europa Conference odds just seem to be thrown together by the betting sites. I can't imagine there's too much action on them maybe after you get past West Ham.
That's pretty much how I felt about it. Europa League was more or less a burden for Arsenal at this point.
I don't like this draw at all. Heavily weighted to one side, with the two best teams facing in the quarters, and two teams from the same league facing each other.
UCL semifinal draw:
Real Madrid/Chelsea vs. Manchester City/ Bayern Munich
AC Milan/Napoli vs. Inter Milan/ SL Benfica
Best possible draw for Italy, I think? Practically guaranteed a spot in the finals.
Really tough draw for the City/Bayern/Madrid side of things, though I doubt anyone is shedding any tears over those 3.
I've been rooting for Napoli this year, so this is great for them. But I really wanted to see them against one of the Big 3 in a tie, since finals are normally so cagey.
Napoli started the tournament given under 0.5% chance to win. Now 19.5%.
That's not quite right, it was more like the 80th minute when he came on. I was at that game and it was quite funny - Forest were historically back that year, and Dwight Yorke and Andy Cole had scored two each and everyone was wondering who'd get the hat-trick before Ole came on and blew them away.
FWIW, 538 thinks the Italian teams are each just 50/50 to advance, whereas betting odds thinks they are significant favorites.
The Premier League has a very high ELO overall, and it's even risen a bit over the course of the year. The Bundesliga and Ligue 1 have stayed flat, while La Liga has fallen off a cliff and Serie A has soared in an equal amount in the opposite direction. Just a few months ago those two leagues were very far apart by ELO and now they are level.
The Netherlands Eredivisie and Portugal Premeira are also almost level right now for 6th. Both have been ok this year, with Portugal pulling slightly ahead right now. Belgium on the other hand is the story of the year, with their teams continuing to overperform in all the European competitions. They have three heavy underdogs coming into the quarters of the three competitions, and even winning a single one would be slightly above a par result.
In UEFA rankings, Italy has a decent chance to pass Germany for 3rd, for the first time in a while. The Netherlands is already ahead of Portugal, and has an outside shot of passing France for 5th. That would be something. Even Portugal passing France this year or next is not yet out of the question (and Portugal could also pass Netherlands again). France still remains well ahead of these two in ELO. Belgium has taken over the 8th spot in UEFA and looks like they may hold onto it for a couple years at least. I'm not sure what the implications are for these rankings going into the revised format.
Not as unlikely in Europa, but the Mourinho rematch with United in the final is below 25% also.
One pretty big difference--Leeds faced two of those teams in the group stages (Barca and Real Madrid, over two group stages), and came out second best both times on the head-to-head. Barca was eliminated at the first group stage but not for lack of beating Leeds. Real Madrid went through the second group stage in first with Leeds in second. Leeds did beat Deportivo in the quarters, but lost to Valencia in the semis. So really Leeds only beat one of the four while losing to the other three--not exactly much of a performance. Without two group stages its no longer possible to repeat this "feat", though I guess it could be again once they change the format in 2 years. (over 8 games: 1 win, 2 draws, and 5 losses, GD -9).
For their part, United were level against Sociedad in the group stage and have beaten Barca and Betis. They can't make it a sweep by beating Sevilla, but it will have been about as close as you can get if they advance. (over 6 games so far: 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, GD +5).
It's the application of two separate rules, but I think the refs got it right.
Top 6 odds:
Well, he's free now, I guess.
I think it's clear he wants to leave England/Tottenham. Honestly, with his heart problems and friend dying, I can even understand that, though it's happening in a highly unprofessional, highly Antonio Conte way.
It must be said that when he took over, the club was a mess. NES was an awul, awful hire, the team's advanced stats were down with Norwich as worst in the league. He steadied the ship, got the CL - that was not easy, but very important, and he did it. Now it's time to go.
What's more frustrating than this is the club in general. How does Paratici still have a job? And it seems obvious that Tottenham is way behind the rest of the Top 6 + Newcastle in terms of analytics in their recruitment process. It's hard to see a path beyond where they are that isn't essentially dumb luck.
I was going to come in and ask what Spurs fans thought. I was surprised at the number of "he's right" comments I saw online.
He's right about some (not all) of it.
But I mean, he's one of the highest paid managers in the world. For plenty of this, if there's a problem, it is his job to fix it. And his tactics have not been nearly as effective this year as last. The 2 man midfield in modern football is so difficult to pull off and requires just bunkering (which Tottenham do, but aren't effective at because it requires incredible CBs to do this and still be a great team), super high workrate from your front line (which they don't have because Son and Kane are both getting older and have played a ton of games over the last few seasons), or Ngolo Kante. The team has been overrun in midfield almost all season, and that makes it really, really difficult to be consistent.
Conte, at least in the press, tends to not take enouh blame/responsibility. I don't think that's true leadership, and I think it's why he has such a short shelf-life everywhere he goes.
Ajax didn't do well in Europe this year either, losing badly twice each to Napoli and Liverpool (but making Rangers look poor), then also losing to a very mediocre Union Berlin in Europa. It's been an off year for them and there's a decent case they are not the best team in then Eredivisie right now. Clearly not on the level right now of the top Portuguese teams, for the prize of best European team outside of the top 4 leagues plus PSV.
EPL winner odds:
remaining points games p/g opponents still to play city 25 11 2.27 home: liverpool, arsenal, chelsea, west ham, leicester, leeds away: brighton, brentford, fulham, everton, southampton arsenal 18.5 10 1.85 home: chelsea, brighton, leeds, wolves, southampton away: city, liverpool, newcastle, west ham, forest liverpool 22 12 1.83 home: arsenal, tottehnam, villa, brentford, fulham, forest away: city, chelsea, west ham, leicester, leeds, southampton chelsea 18 11 1.64 home: liverpool, newcastle, brighton, villa, brentford, forest away: city, arsenal, united, wolves, bournemouth united 21.5 12 1.79 home: chelsea, villa, brentford, fulham, wolves, everton away: newcastle, tottenham, brighton, west ham, forest, bournemouth newcastle 19.5 12 1.63 home: arsenal, united, tottenhham, brighton, leicester, southampton away: chelsea, west ham villa, brentford, leeds, everton tottenham 15.5 10 1.55 home: united, brighton, brentord, palace, bournemouth away: liveprool, newcastle, villa, leeds, everton brighton 20 13 1.54 home: city, united, brentford, wolves, everon, southampton away: arsenal, chelsea, tottenham, newcastle, villa, forest, bournemouth west ham 15 12 1.25 home: liverpool, arsenal, united, newcastle, leeds, southampton away: city, brentford, leicester, palace, fulham, bournemouth villa 13.5 11 1.23 home: tottenham, newcastle, brighton, fulham, forest away: liverpool, chelsea, united, leicester, brentford, wolves leicester 13.5 11 1.23 home: liverpool, west ham, villa, wolves, everton, bournemouth away: city, united, palace, leeds, fulham wolves 11.5 10 1.15 home: chelsea, villa, brentford, palace, everton away: arsenal, united, brighton, leicester, forest brentford 11 11 1.00 home: city, newcastle, west ham, villa, forest away: liverpool, chelsea, united, tottenham, brighton, wolves leeds 12 11 1.09 home: liverpool, newcastle, tottenham, leicester, palace away: city, arsenal, west ham, fulham, bounemouth fulham 12 11 1.09 home: city, west ham, leicester, palace, leeds away: liverpool, united, villa, everton, southampton, bournemouth everton 10.5 10 1.05 home: city, newcastle, tottenham, fulham, bournemouth away: united, brighton, leicester, wolves, palace palace 12 11 1.09 home: west ham, leicester, everton, bournemouth, forest away: tottenham, fulham, wolves, leeds, southampton southampton 9.5 10 0.95 home: city, liverpool, palace, fulham, bournemouth away: arsenal, neecastle, brighton, west ham, forest forest 9 11 0.82 home: arsenal, united, brighton, wolves, southampton away: liverpool, chelsea, brentford, villa, palace, leeds bournemouth 9 11 0.82 home: chelsea, united, brighton, west ham, leeds, fulham away: tottenham, leicester, palace, everton, southamptonAnd whoops. Mitrovic sent off for bumping the ref by complaining. Fulham down to 9.
Silva the coach sent off too.
edit: ridiculous really. United was playing so poorly, though that break that resulted in the send off and penalty was good. Now hard to imagine they can lose.
And 2-1 now United.
Fulham's red card and penalty luck this year has not continued today.
That looked to me like the arm was already extended and he was trying to bring it into his body, rather than intentionally trying to handle the ball.
The upcoming stretch is absolutely brutal. City, Newcastle and Liverpool, all on the road. Liverpool is a different side at Anfield than they are on the road, and Arsenal couldn't find a way through Newcastle's defense even at the Emirates. Plus, you know, the only team in the league that's actually better than they are. Ugh.
I was virtually certain that was going to be given as a red the first time I saw the replay. I've been wrong before though, so there is that.
If United advances over Sevilla in Europa they will be playing twice a week every week through the end of the EPL season (i.e., 17 games in 8.5 weeks). The final of the FA cup and the Europa cup are both the week after the end of the season, so wouldn't affect this if they make either one. CL final is 2 weeks after, though if they make both finals it will be 9.5 weeks straight. They must think the international break is welcome, since they've also played twice every week since Dec 27. 24 games in 12 weeks.
City and West Ham are in similar situations going forward if they advance over Bayern/Gent, but would still have one fewer game, so would get at least one midweek off.
trophy odds
And, you can see by the ball's trajectory in the video shot it's going to go over Willian's leg and clear the post by at least two fee. Easily headed in. The handball prevented a goal.
But I guess it’s possible he’s really dumb.
There is no benefit of the doubt for the defender on a play like this.
Particularly in a world with VAR, an intentional handball on the goal line is insane unless you’re in a Suarez situation, which William certainly was not.
To me the only question is: was the defender's touch deemed a deflection or did it reset the play. The IFAB guidance is pretty clear that a touch like the Forest player's touch is a deflection, so under current rules that has to be offside. Maybe they will change the rule again but personally I don't think they should, for the same reason that I don't think it should be the goalkeeper's job to push the ball away from an offside player every time he makes a save.
Personally I don't think VAR should be used this way. I think it should be quick, made in the booth and not involve monitors, and on-field call should be given little deference. If they are going to have VAR at all, just use it fully. The EPL appears to be the worst of all the leagues in terms of deference to the on-field call.
Somewhat related to this point is the point made in the Dale Johnson article where he seems to be implying that the offensive player's relative involvement in the play on the initial pass before the deflection should be considered when determining whether a touch by the defender counts as a deflection in the first place.
So now apparently VAR not only has to determine whether a play was or was not a deflection, but in making this determination they have to consider the location of all the players on the field. That is, instead of an offside being a matter of certain "elements" each being satisfied, as the rule is now. all the elements have to be thrown into the same pot and weighed against each other as "factors". In a perfect world this can lead to better outcomes on the whole, but for sure it increases subjectivity too.
They've also been pretty bad in Europe. In a just world, they would have lost to both PSV and Fenerbahce, as they were outplayed by both teams over two legs. They were absolutely embarrassed by City twice and only dropped down to Europa because Copenhagen was in their group. The only decent team they played ok against was Dortmund, and even there they lost 1-4 at home in the group stages despite the underlying stats having the game as even.
United's odds against them have only gone up in the last few days. Currently at 80%.
I think Poch was a great manager for Spurs, but I'm not optimistic a second go at it is in the best interest for anyone.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main