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Tuesday, February 21, 2023

OT Soccer Thread - Champions League Knockout Stages Begin

New soccer thread!

Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: February 21, 2023 at 04:16 PM | 315 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: off topic, soccer

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201. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: March 14, 2023 at 11:34 PM (#6120448)

Lewandowski once came off the bench for the second half and scored 5 against Dortmund

Not quite, but actually better. It was against Wolfsburg...and he got the 5 goals in 8 minutes and 59 seconds. It was insane. Oh, and Bayern was down 1-0 when he came on.

202. Mefisto Posted: March 15, 2023 at 08:35 AM (#6120454)

Thanks.

203. The Marksist Posted: March 15, 2023 at 09:00 AM (#6120456)

Here's the full 9 minutes if you want to watch. It's wild.

204. jmurph Posted: March 15, 2023 at 09:02 AM (#6120457)

Aguero scored 5 in like 20 minutes once, it was incredible. Either side of halftime, though, so maybe less cool than the others. Against Newcastle I think?

205. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 16, 2023 at 04:47 PM (#6120559)

CL pre-draw odds revised:

city        34.5
bayern      25
realmadrid  13
napoli      11.5
chelsea      7.5
inter        3.5
benfica      3
milan        2

My ideal draw would have city not facing bayern yet, and none of the teams from the same countries facing each other.

206. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 16, 2023 at 05:26 PM (#6120561)

Sporting put one in from right near the halfway line on a perfectly placed shot right under the crossbar and just over Ramsdale.

207. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 16, 2023 at 06:19 PM (#6120566)

Villarreal and Lazio both managed to go out of the Europa Conference, so it's West Ham's too lose.

538 thinks Fiorentina is the favorite, but betting odds does not.

208. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 16, 2023 at 06:52 PM (#6120572)

And Arsenal goes out on penalties! Maybe a mixed blessing for them, considering they are a shoe-in for the CL already next year and they have the league title to play for. They were the clear superior team over two legs but only dominant for stretches, and Sporting played them well enough that they could expect to lose a few ties like this.

United becomes an even bigger favorite for Europa now. Juve/Roma second and third.

non-shot xG was a slaughter over two legs (5.2-1.7, per 538), but Sporting played their underdog game well and had about 3 xG total, and got 3 goals. They also didn't let Arsenal's dangerous possession hurt them too much or even lead to an overabundance of good chances. Arsenal certainly did get a fair amount of good chances though and really should have won the tie.

209. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 16, 2023 at 07:19 PM (#6120574)

Europa pre-draw odds:

United         41
Juventus       16
Roma           12
Sevilla         8.5
Sporting        8.5
Leverkusen      7
Feyenoord       4.5
StGilloise      2.5

Those United odds seem really high, though I do expect them to go all out to win this. I wouldn't put them at much over 30%. Sevilla sucks, but Juve/Roma/Leverkusen/Sporting are all quite decent and any could beat United. Even Feyenoord has had a very good year so should not be counted out.

210. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 16, 2023 at 07:28 PM (#6120575)

Europa Conference pre-draw odds:

WestHam         27     
Fiorentina      19
Nice            19
AZAlkmaar       18
Gent             5
Anderlecht       5
Basel            4
LechPoznan       3

These Europa Conference odds just seem to be thrown together by the betting sites. I can't imagine there's too much action on them maybe after you get past West Ham.

211. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 16, 2023 at 07:32 PM (#6120576)

Maybe a mixed blessing for them, considering they are a shoe-in for the CL already next year and they have the league title to play for.

That's pretty much how I felt about it. Europa League was more or less a burden for Arsenal at this point.

212. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 17, 2023 at 08:53 AM (#6120593)

Napoli got the second easiest matchup in the round of 16, facing Eintracht Frankfurt. They now get the easiest in the round of 8, against Milan. Win that, and they again face the easiest in the semis, against Inter/Benfica. They are big favorites to reach the final now where they will not be favorites unless they face Chelsea.

I don't like this draw at all. Heavily weighted to one side, with the two best teams facing in the quarters, and two teams from the same league facing each other.

213. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 17, 2023 at 08:58 AM (#6120594)

United takes on Sevilla. The odds still like Sevilla but I don't, and I think that's probably one of the easiest matchups for United. Win and they take on Juve or Sporting.

214. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 17, 2023 at 09:02 AM (#6120595)

CL post-draw odds. Major movement due to the lopsided draw.

city        27.5
bayern      20
napoli      19.5
realmadrid  12
inter        6
benfica      5.5
chelsea      5.5
milan        4

215. jmurph Posted: March 17, 2023 at 09:19 AM (#6120596)

For the record:
UCL semifinal draw:
Real Madrid/Chelsea vs. Manchester City/ Bayern Munich
AC Milan/Napoli vs. Inter Milan/ SL Benfica

Best possible draw for Italy, I think? Practically guaranteed a spot in the finals.

Really tough draw for the City/Bayern/Madrid side of things, though I doubt anyone is shedding any tears over those 3.

216. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 17, 2023 at 09:20 AM (#6120597)

CL odds to reach semis:

inter       52   48    benfica
city        54   46    bayern
realmadrid  57   43    chelsea
napoli      69   31    milan

217. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 17, 2023 at 09:30 AM (#6120598)

Europa post-draw odds

United         39
Juventus       14
Roma           13.5
Leverkusen     10.5
Sporting        8
Sevilla         7
Feyenoord       5
StGilloise      3

With Juve's point deduction, there are three teams that have a better shot at CL through Europa than finishing top 4. Sevilla and Leverkusen are the other two. Leverkusen still has a longshot chance through the league, but Sevilla is done.

218. spivey Posted: March 17, 2023 at 09:31 AM (#6120599)

Kind of bummed about the draw. I do like as a fan there being a final level matchup in the QF, because the semis are always likely to be very good regardless. But the 3 best teams on 1 side of the draw, and 3 Italian teams on the other.

I've been rooting for Napoli this year, so this is great for them. But I really wanted to see them against one of the Big 3 in a tie, since finals are normally so cagey.

219. spivey Posted: March 17, 2023 at 09:32 AM (#6120600)

We've been waiting for City/Bayern for a few years now, though, so I'm happy it's finally happening.

220. spivey Posted: March 17, 2023 at 09:35 AM (#6120601)

Wow - Patrick Vieira was fired. Man, they have been poor this year, but I feel like sometimes people can be victims of their own success.

221. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 17, 2023 at 09:38 AM (#6120602)

None of the favorites face each other in the Europa Conference. West Ham has Gent, and if they win, then likely AZ who has Anderlecht. Fiorentina has LechPoznan, and if they win, likely Nice who has Basel. I'm going to continue to ignore the ECL until at least the semis.

222. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 17, 2023 at 09:42 AM (#6120603)

City started the tournament given a 26% chance to win. Now their odds are 27.5%.
Napoli started the tournament given under 0.5% chance to win. Now 19.5%.

223. manchestermets Posted: March 17, 2023 at 09:46 AM (#6120604)

Solskjaer once scored 4 after coming on in the 90th minute.

That's not quite right, it was more like the 80th minute when he came on. I was at that game and it was quite funny - Forest were historically back that year, and Dwight Yorke and Andy Cole had scored two each and everyone was wondering who'd get the hat-trick before Ole came on and blew them away.

224. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 17, 2023 at 09:57 AM (#6120605)

Europa league odds to advance (not many lines available, so a bit approximate)

roma        58  42   feyenoord
juventus    71  29   sporting
leverkusen  72  28   stgilloise
united      77  23   sevilla

FWIW, 538 thinks the Italian teams are each just 50/50 to advance, whereas betting odds thinks they are significant favorites.

225. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 17, 2023 at 10:44 AM (#6120607)

Due to Serie A's excellent performance in Europe thus far, their ELO has soared and now they are in an effective three-way tie with La Liga and the Bundesliga for second in ELO (way behind the Premier League).

The Premier League has a very high ELO overall, and it's even risen a bit over the course of the year. The Bundesliga and Ligue 1 have stayed flat, while La Liga has fallen off a cliff and Serie A has soared in an equal amount in the opposite direction. Just a few months ago those two leagues were very far apart by ELO and now they are level.

The Netherlands Eredivisie and Portugal Premeira are also almost level right now for 6th. Both have been ok this year, with Portugal pulling slightly ahead right now. Belgium on the other hand is the story of the year, with their teams continuing to overperform in all the European competitions. They have three heavy underdogs coming into the quarters of the three competitions, and even winning a single one would be slightly above a par result.

In UEFA rankings, Italy has a decent chance to pass Germany for 3rd, for the first time in a while. The Netherlands is already ahead of Portugal, and has an outside shot of passing France for 5th. That would be something. Even Portugal passing France this year or next is not yet out of the question (and Portugal could also pass Netherlands again). France still remains well ahead of these two in ELO. Belgium has taken over the 8th spot in UEFA and looks like they may hold onto it for a couple years at least. I'm not sure what the implications are for these rankings going into the revised format.

226. Mefisto Posted: March 17, 2023 at 10:53 AM (#6120608)

@223: You're right. It was 4 goals in 10 minutes and I just got my timing wrong.

227. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 17, 2023 at 11:09 AM (#6120609)

Each time there is the quarters/semis draw, the pundits assume the "favorites" on each side (which they don't always even identify correctly, at least by betting odds) will advance to the finals. An example is City/Napoli. Each team is less than 50/50 to even reach the final, and the odds of that particular matchup are well below 20%.

Not as unlikely in Europa, but the Mourinho rematch with United in the final is below 25% also.

228. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 17, 2023 at 11:29 AM (#6120610)

factoid from OptaJoe: "4 - Man Utd are only the second side ever to face four different sides from the same country in a single season in a major European competition (Real Sociedad, Barça, Betis, Sevilla), after Leeds Utd in the 2000-01 Champions League (Barça, Real Madrid, Deportivo, Valencia). Hola."

One pretty big difference--Leeds faced two of those teams in the group stages (Barca and Real Madrid, over two group stages), and came out second best both times on the head-to-head. Barca was eliminated at the first group stage but not for lack of beating Leeds. Real Madrid went through the second group stage in first with Leeds in second. Leeds did beat Deportivo in the quarters, but lost to Valencia in the semis. So really Leeds only beat one of the four while losing to the other three--not exactly much of a performance. Without two group stages its no longer possible to repeat this "feat", though I guess it could be again once they change the format in 2 years. (over 8 games: 1 win, 2 draws, and 5 losses, GD -9).

For their part, United were level against Sociedad in the group stage and have beaten Barca and Betis. They can't make it a sweep by beating Sevilla, but it will have been about as close as you can get if they advance. (over 6 games so far: 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, GD +5).

229. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 17, 2023 at 05:31 PM (#6120622)

Interesting VAR reversal in the Forest/Newcastle game. The first touch by the defense was clearly a deflection so did not reset the offside. The second touch by the defense was a clear play by the defense, but the problem was it was challenged by the Newcastle player that was originally in an offside position when the ball was played by Newcastle, and who cannot interfere with the defender playing the ball from that position without being called offside.

It's the application of two separate rules, but I think the refs got it right.

230. spivey Posted: March 17, 2023 at 06:10 PM (#6120626)

I know I shouldn't rely on Nottingham Forest for my happiness. But wtf was that?

231. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 17, 2023 at 07:07 PM (#6120628)

Forest is bad too. Bad, bad. Somehow they had that stretch where they went 11 games only losing twice, but that was an aberration, and they are back to their losing ways. Close to 50/50 for being relegated now, and among the three most likely teams to be relegated (w/ Southampton & Bournemouth).

232. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 18, 2023 at 11:02 AM (#6120666)

Fulham has 39 points and won't get relegated. Very likely, pretty soon it will become clear they will have no shot at a spot in Europe either (assuming they care in the first place). I suspect they might not put up much resistance to the last several teams they face this season.

233. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 18, 2023 at 11:47 AM (#6120668)

Just to finish my thought above. Midtable teams often play decently at the end of the season with nothing to play for. Difference with this Fulham team is that they are a bad team that just happened to end up midtable.

234. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 18, 2023 at 12:27 PM (#6120669)

Along with the three Europa teams above, Chelsea also has a better chance at a CL spot through Europe than domestically. That's fairly unusual.

235. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: March 18, 2023 at 12:55 PM (#6120670)

How in the world do the refs see any contact there whatsoever?

236. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 18, 2023 at 01:11 PM (#6120672)

The defender appeared to kick the calf of the offensive player, early in the leg swing. It must have been pretty slight though.

237. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 18, 2023 at 01:36 PM (#6120676)

You can clearly see the contact here. Now, that doesn't mean it should have been a penalty, but it pretty much means VAR won't overturn it. If it weren't for the enthusiasm of the attempted clearance and the dramatic fall though, that penalty never gets called. It probably never should be called, but in truth it is the kind that got called a lot pre-VAR.

238. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: March 18, 2023 at 03:40 PM (#6120679)

I mean, the "enthusiasm of the attempted clearance" matters as to whether or not it is a foul, surely. Part of the rule is whether the offender was being careless, reckless, or using excessive force. Which I think applies here. Yeah, the contact is slight, but it is there, it is late, and it is wild. It's harsh, but I think penalty is the correct decision.

239. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 18, 2023 at 06:48 PM (#6120686)

Top 4 odds:

city         99.5

united       79.5

newcastle    42
liverpool    30.5
tottenham    30

brighton     16.5

chelsea       1.5
brentford     0.5

Top 6 odds:

united       96

newcastle    81
tottenham    78
liverpool    72

brighton     54.5

chelsea      12

brentford     3
villa         2
fulham        1.5

240. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: March 18, 2023 at 08:14 PM (#6120688)

239 - is arsenal not listed because they are at 100%?

241. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 18, 2023 at 08:31 PM (#6120690)

Too close to 100% to have real odds or list.

242. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 19, 2023 at 10:03 AM (#6120715)

Watching Arsenal take on Palace in a soupy London fog, I am reminded that last year, after the crash out of the CL spots, many people were baying for Arteta's head on a spike, and for him to be replaced by . . . Patrick Vieira.

Well, he's free now, I guess.

243. jmurph Posted: March 19, 2023 at 10:12 AM (#6120717)

244. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 19, 2023 at 10:32 AM (#6120718)

Zinchenko looks like a Hobbit.

245. spivey Posted: March 19, 2023 at 10:39 AM (#6120719)

As an official Spurs Hater I enjoyed the Conte meltdown as much as anyone, but I feel like he's not getting nearly enough pushback on all his nonsense. He's a two year guy, this is what he does. The idea that he's some kind of team or culture builder is laughable. He's got one 3 year stint in his entire career.

I think it's clear he wants to leave England/Tottenham. Honestly, with his heart problems and friend dying, I can even understand that, though it's happening in a highly unprofessional, highly Antonio Conte way.

It must be said that when he took over, the club was a mess. NES was an awul, awful hire, the team's advanced stats were down with Norwich as worst in the league. He steadied the ship, got the CL - that was not easy, but very important, and he did it. Now it's time to go.

What's more frustrating than this is the club in general. How does Paratici still have a job? And it seems obvious that Tottenham is way behind the rest of the Top 6 + Newcastle in terms of analytics in their recruitment process. It's hard to see a path beyond where they are that isn't essentially dumb luck.

246. SoSH U at work Posted: March 19, 2023 at 10:42 AM (#6120720)

As an official Spurs Hater I enjoyed the Conte meltdown as much as anyone, but I feel like he's not getting nearly enough pushback on all his nonsense. He's a two year guy, this is what he does. The idea that he's some kind of team or culture builder is laughable. He's got one 3 year stint in his entire career.

I was going to come in and ask what Spurs fans thought. I was surprised at the number of "he's right" comments I saw online.

247. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 19, 2023 at 10:47 AM (#6120722)

Top 4 cutoff will probably be in the high 60s in points this year, which means after today conceivably Arsenal could be top 4 even losing all the rest of their games.

248. spivey Posted: March 19, 2023 at 10:52 AM (#6120723)

I was going to come in and ask what Spurs fans thought. I was surprised at the number of "he's right" comments I saw online.

He's right about some (not all) of it.

But I mean, he's one of the highest paid managers in the world. For plenty of this, if there's a problem, it is his job to fix it. And his tactics have not been nearly as effective this year as last. The 2 man midfield in modern football is so difficult to pull off and requires just bunkering (which Tottenham do, but aren't effective at because it requires incredible CBs to do this and still be a great team), super high workrate from your front line (which they don't have because Son and Kane are both getting older and have played a ton of games over the last few seasons), or Ngolo Kante. The team has been overrun in midfield almost all season, and that makes it really, really difficult to be consistent.

Conte, at least in the press, tends to not take enouh blame/responsibility. I don't think that's true leadership, and I think it's why he has such a short shelf-life everywhere he goes.

249. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 19, 2023 at 11:33 AM (#6120727)

Feyenoord won away to Ajax, and now will likely win the Eredivisie. Ajax might not even qualify for the CL qualifying rounds next year, as PSV and AZ are right on their tail. Ajax still has to play both of them as well.

Ajax didn't do well in Europe this year either, losing badly twice each to Napoli and Liverpool (but making Rangers look poor), then also losing to a very mediocre Union Berlin in Europa. It's been an off year for them and there's a decent case they are not the best team in then Eredivisie right now. Clearly not on the level right now of the top Portuguese teams, for the prize of best European team outside of the top 4 leagues plus PSV.

250. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 19, 2023 at 11:56 AM (#6120729)

Arsenal is in a great spot going into the international break--8 points up though having played one more game than City. It won't be simple though. Of their 10 remaining games, 6 are against other teams in the top half of the league in quality, and 4 of those are on the road. Only 5 of City's 11 games are against the top half (in quality), and 4 of those 5 are at home.

EPL winner odds:

arsenal        59.5
city           40.25
united          0.25

251. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 19, 2023 at 12:17 PM (#6120730)

Relegation odds:

southampton  65
bournemouth  61

forest       46

everton      33

leeds        21
wolves       21
leicester    19
west ham     18
palace       16

Not a one of these teams is currently projected to get 40 points. Undoubtedly at least 2 or 3 will though, just by variation if nothing else.

252. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 19, 2023 at 12:20 PM (#6120731)

Team estimates of quality and remaining schedules for the stretch run (based on betting odds). Remaining schedules right now can be very unequal, which is why certain teams are ranked higher than other despite being expected to amass fewer points over the last 10-13 games.

             remaining                                       
        points    games   p/g   opponents still to play    
  
city         25     11   2.27   home: liverpool, arsenal, chelsea, west ham, leicester, leeds
                                away: brighton, brentford, fulham, everton, southampton   
      
arsenal      18.5   10   1.85   home: chelsea, brighton, leeds, wolves, southampton
                                away: city, liverpool, newcastle, west ham, forest      
liverpool    22     12   1.83   home: arsenal, tottehnam, villa, brentford, fulham, forest     
                                away: city, chelsea, west ham, leicester, leeds, southampton  
                          
chelsea      18     11   1.64   home: liverpool, newcastle, brighton, villa, brentford, forest     
                                away: city, arsenal, united, wolves, bournemouth
united       21.5   12   1.79   home: chelsea, villa, brentford, fulham, wolves, everton
                                away: newcastle, tottenham, brighton, west ham, forest, bournemouth
newcastle    19.5   12   1.63   home: arsenal, united, tottenhham, brighton, leicester, southampton
                                away: chelsea, west ham villa, brentford, leeds, everton
tottenham    15.5   10   1.55   home: united, brighton, brentord, palace, bournemouth                          
                                away: liveprool, newcastle, villa, leeds, everton
brighton     20     13   1.54   home: city, united, brentford, wolves, everon, southampton   
                                away: arsenal, chelsea, tottenham, newcastle, villa, forest, bournemouth

west ham     15     12   1.25   home: liverpool, arsenal, united, newcastle, leeds, southampton
                                away: city, brentford, leicester, palace, fulham, bournemouth                  
villa        13.5   11   1.23   home: tottenham, newcastle, brighton, fulham, forest 
                                away: liverpool, chelsea, united, leicester, brentford, wolves                 
leicester    13.5   11   1.23   home: liverpool, west ham, villa, wolves, everton, bournemouth
                                away: city, united, palace, leeds, fulham   

wolves       11.5   10   1.15   home: chelsea, villa, brentford, palace, everton     
                                away: arsenal, united, brighton, leicester, forest              
brentford    11     11   1.00   home: city, newcastle, west ham, villa, forest
                                away: liverpool, chelsea, united, tottenham, brighton, wolves
leeds        12     11   1.09   home: liverpool, newcastle, tottenham, leicester, palace   
                                away: city, arsenal, west ham, fulham, bounemouth
fulham       12     11   1.09   home: city, west ham, leicester, palace, leeds
                                away: liverpool, united, villa, everton, southampton, bournemouth   
everton      10.5   10   1.05   home: city, newcastle, tottenham, fulham, bournemouth
                                away: united, brighton, leicester, wolves, palace
palace       12     11   1.09   home: west ham, leicester, everton, bournemouth, forest 
                                away: tottenham, fulham, wolves, leeds, southampton   
southampton   9.5   10   0.95   home: city, liverpool, palace, fulham, bournemouth
                                away: arsenal, neecastle, brighton, west ham, forest

forest        9     11   0.82   home: arsenal, united, brighton, wolves, southampton
                                away: liverpool, chelsea, brentford, villa, palace, leeds
bournemouth   9     11   0.82   home: chelsea, united, brighton, west ham, leeds, fulham
                                away: tottenham, leicester, palace, everton, southampton

253. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 19, 2023 at 01:31 PM (#6120736)

United looked very uninspired in that first half against Fulham. Winner gets Brighton. Sheffield United gets City, which means City is very heavy favorites to win the FA cup now (60+% at the moment).

254. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 19, 2023 at 02:01 PM (#6120737)

Willian should be sent off for that hand ball on the goal line. Looked intentional. Huge break for United if so. And that's what happened.

And whoops. Mitrovic sent off for bumping the ref by complaining. Fulham down to 9.

Silva the coach sent off too.

edit: ridiculous really. United was playing so poorly, though that break that resulted in the send off and penalty was good. Now hard to imagine they can lose.

And 2-1 now United.

Fulham's red card and penalty luck this year has not continued today.

255. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 19, 2023 at 02:15 PM (#6120738)

The United/Brighton game could be very interesting. Brighton is probably quite a bit better than most people think, and United a little worse. I'd make United only very small favorites, but I think the odds will like them better than that.

256. SoSH U at work Posted: March 19, 2023 at 02:55 PM (#6120739)

Willian should be sent off for that hand ball on the goal line. Looked intentional. Huge break for United if so. And that's what happened.

That looked to me like the arm was already extended and he was trying to bring it into his body, rather than intentionally trying to handle the ball.

257. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 19, 2023 at 03:16 PM (#6120740)

Of their 10 remaining games, 6 are against other teams in the top half of the league in quality, and 4 of those are on the road.

The upcoming stretch is absolutely brutal. City, Newcastle and Liverpool, all on the road. Liverpool is a different side at Anfield than they are on the road, and Arsenal couldn't find a way through Newcastle's defense even at the Emirates. Plus, you know, the only team in the league that's actually better than they are. Ugh.

258. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 19, 2023 at 04:18 PM (#6120741)

I'm 90% sure that was intentional. He was leaning his body forward into it to make it look like his hand was tucked by his side. Anywhere else but on the goal line maybe he gets away with it. Never there. A handling on the goal line has to be clearly unintentional or clearly with the hand all the way in front of the body or it will get called. There's no leeway given on a play like that, and I don't think there should be.

I was virtually certain that was going to be given as a red the first time I saw the replay. I've been wrong before though, so there is that.

259. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 19, 2023 at 05:47 PM (#6120745)

United will now play a minimum of 61 games this year. If they make the FA and Europa finals, that will go up to 65. Either way that's a ton of games but not a record for an EPL team. Chelsea played 69 in 2008/2009, and United played 66 in 2005/2006. Both of those teams "benefitted" from 4 games in the club world cup, the supercup, and the community shield. Chelse also got some replays in the FA cup.

If United advances over Sevilla in Europa they will be playing twice a week every week through the end of the EPL season (i.e., 17 games in 8.5 weeks). The final of the FA cup and the Europa cup are both the week after the end of the season, so wouldn't affect this if they make either one. CL final is 2 weeks after, though if they make both finals it will be 9.5 weeks straight. They must think the international break is welcome, since they've also played twice every week since Dec 27. 24 games in 12 weeks.

City and West Ham are in similar situations going forward if they advance over Bayern/Gent, but would still have one fewer game, so would get at least one midweek off.

260. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 19, 2023 at 06:03 PM (#6120746)

FA cup odds next round (approximate):

city     87  13   sheffield united
united   65  35   brighton

trophy odds

city               57.5
united             27.5
brighton           13
sheffield united   2

261. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 19, 2023 at 06:15 PM (#6120747)

On further replays it's even clearer that the handball was an easy penalty and red. The ball hits fully on Willian's hand, with the elbow bent 90 degrees such that the forearm is completely out in front of the body. Willian also seems to lean in intentionally and slap at the ball. Some good angles on twitter. With all the extra views probably one of the clearest calls VAR will have to make all year.

And, you can see by the ball's trajectory in the video shot it's going to go over Willian's leg and clear the post by at least two fee. Easily headed in. The handball prevented a goal.

262. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: March 19, 2023 at 06:21 PM (#6120748)

Bayer Leverkusen came back from a goal down, to beat Bayern 2:1. Both Leverkusen goals were penalties. Both times Amine Adli got fouled. Both times the ref initially gave him a yellow for diving. Before VAR correctly intervened, and reversed the decision.

263. SoSH U at work Posted: March 19, 2023 at 07:12 PM (#6120752)

Well, it absolutely is a pen and I’m not surprised he got a red, but those additional angles don’t change my view. His arm was outstretched when he leapt . That’s undeniable. It looks to me as if he was trying to pull it back in toward his body and couldn’t pull it off.

But I guess it’s possible he’s really dumb.

264. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 19, 2023 at 07:19 PM (#6120753)

The world would be a better place if Bayern didn't win the Bundesliga basically every year without trying. The world will be a better place if they somehow don't this year. But the world would be an even better place if they weren't so obviously, completely in another league from the rest of Germany, and just sort of going through a run of bad luck at the moment. The EPL is annoying enough with only 6-ish teams that get to compete. The Bundesliga is utterly, unwatchably terrible.

265. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 19, 2023 at 07:52 PM (#6120756)

I think it was intentional in the sense that it was an instinctual attempt to stop the goal, using the hand if necessary. It doesn't matter though, as the red card is required once it is determined to be a handball (intentional or not) and a DOGSO, even if there is also a penalty awarded, and even if the handball results from a genuine attempt to play the ball. From the FA rule.

SENDING-OFF OFFENCES

A player, substitute or substituted player who commits any of the following offences is sent off:

denying the opposing team a goal or an obvious goal-scoring opportunity by a handball offence (except a goalkeeper within their penalty area)

denying a goal or an obvious goal-scoring opportunity to an opponent whose overall movement is towards the offender's goal by an offence punishable by a free kick (unless as outlined below)
...

DENYING A GOAL OR AN OBVIOUS GOAL-SCORING OPPORTUNITY (DOGSO)

Where a player commits an offence against an opponent within their own penalty area which denies an opponent an obvious goal-scoring opportunity and the referee awards a penalty kick, the offender is cautioned if the offence was an attempt to play the ball; in all other circumstances (e.g. holding, pulling,
pushing, no possibility to play the ball etc.) the offending player must be sent off.

Where a player denies the opposing team a goal or an obvious goal-scoring opportunity by a handball offence, the player is sent off wherever the offence occurs (except a goalkeeper within their penalty area).

There is no benefit of the doubt for the defender on a play like this.

266. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 19, 2023 at 08:12 PM (#6120757)

Also, players aren't stupid, so this is about as blatant as a handball on the goal line will ever look now with the current penalty/red combo punishment, unless maybe you're in a Suarez scenario.

267. SoSH U at work Posted: March 19, 2023 at 09:23 PM (#6120761)

I’m not disputing either the pen or the red. But I don’t think the handball was intentional. Rather he had put himself in a position where a handball was nearly inevitable and the movement of his arm was trying, unsuccessfully, to extricate himself from his own mess.

Particularly in a world with VAR, an intentional handball on the goal line is insane unless you’re in a Suarez situation, which William certainly was not.

268. The_Ex Posted: March 20, 2023 at 08:06 AM (#6120780)

My belief is intentional handball.

269. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 20, 2023 at 09:26 AM (#6120787)

Speaking of handballs, the independent panel ruled that VAR should have intervened and given a penalty when the Chelsea player blocked the Leicester shot in the wall with his elbow out. Seemed blatant to me at the time (post 156) as well. I don't always agree with the independent panel, but when they actually say VAR should have intervened (rather than the other way around) it's a pretty clear sign that it was a missed call.

270. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 20, 2023 at 09:37 AM (#6120790)

Dale Johnson on the VAR review seems to be saying that the spirit of the rule is violated in a play like the Newcastle disallowed goal where a player who came from an offside position but was not originally part of the play becomes part of the play after a defender deflection. This has never been the rule before. A ball can rebound off the keeper or the woodwork and go to a player who was in an offside position when the shot was taken, and the Newcastle play doesn't seem any difference from that. And, even under the old guidance, if there was clear deflection off the defender (say, blasted into his back at close range and caromed wildly into another direction) and the ball fortuitously ended up with an offensive player who had started from an offside position, that was always given as offside.

To me the only question is: was the defender's touch deemed a deflection or did it reset the play. The IFAB guidance is pretty clear that a touch like the Forest player's touch is a deflection, so under current rules that has to be offside. Maybe they will change the rule again but personally I don't think they should, for the same reason that I don't think it should be the goalkeeper's job to push the ball away from an offside player every time he makes a save.

271. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 20, 2023 at 10:32 AM (#6120797)

To be fair to the people complaining about the Newcastle goal being disallowed, there is an argument that the Forest player's kick at the ball at the 6-yard box is a judgment call, and there being arguments either way on this play VAR should not have intervened (even if under current IFAB guidance it is more a deflection than a resetting of the play). It's an argument that the high standard of VAR intervention that the EPL seems to like in other scenarios should be applied here as well, so the VAR should have let whatever the on-field ref called stand as is.

Personally I don't think VAR should be used this way. I think it should be quick, made in the booth and not involve monitors, and on-field call should be given little deference. If they are going to have VAR at all, just use it fully. The EPL appears to be the worst of all the leagues in terms of deference to the on-field call.

272. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 20, 2023 at 12:55 PM (#6120818)

I find it more than a bit ironic that VAR is tasked with taking out the arbitrariness of calls, while at the same time there has to be clear/obvious error to overturn. What is or is not "clear/obvious" is one of the biggest points of judgment and contention of them all, so an extra layer of subjectivity has been added. I'm not saying this is necessarily bad, but it does go against he supposed purpose of VAR.

Somewhat related to this point is the point made in the Dale Johnson article where he seems to be implying that the offensive player's relative involvement in the play on the initial pass before the deflection should be considered when determining whether a touch by the defender counts as a deflection in the first place.

Longstaff, who was stood away from the ball when it was first played by Isak, had no direct role in the immediate move against Forest.
...
A better example of what the IFAB intended was Mohamed Salah's goal for Liverpool against Wolverhampton Wanderers in the FA Cup. Salah was in an offside position and directly benefitted when Toti made a failed attempt to clear with a header, with the Egyptian running through to score. Toti appeared to be stretching for the ball and not in control, but the VAR, Mike Dean, decided not to disallow the goal for offside. If you look at Salah and Longstaff, and what the IFAB was trying to achieve, the final outcomes feel the wrong way around.

So now apparently VAR not only has to determine whether a play was or was not a deflection, but in making this determination they have to consider the location of all the players on the field. That is, instead of an offside being a matter of certain "elements" each being satisfied, as the rule is now. all the elements have to be thrown into the same pot and weighed against each other as "factors". In a perfect world this can lead to better outcomes on the whole, but for sure it increases subjectivity too.

273. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 21, 2023 at 09:21 AM (#6120918)

Sampaoli out at Sevilla just weeks before the matchup against United in Europa. They've been terrible domestically, and their position in the table just out of the drop zone has been no fluke based on performance thus far. It was worse before Sampaoli though, so I'm not sure sacking him was the best idea. Even with all that, they are still being given less than 10% to be relegated.

They've also been pretty bad in Europe. In a just world, they would have lost to both PSV and Fenerbahce, as they were outplayed by both teams over two legs. They were absolutely embarrassed by City twice and only dropped down to Europa because Copenhagen was in their group. The only decent team they played ok against was Dortmund, and even there they lost 1-4 at home in the group stages despite the underlying stats having the game as even.

United's odds against them have only gone up in the last few days. Currently at 80%.

274. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 21, 2023 at 09:57 AM (#6120923)

Palace has not won in 2023, with 5 draws and 8 losses (including the FA cup loss). They've played an absolutely brutal schedule though. Those 12 EPL games were all against the top half of the table in quality (Brighton and United twice) except for maybe midtable Villa, where they played on the road and also down a man for half an hour, and Brentford, who they actually played fairly well against and could have beaten, despite being on the road. Considering their competition they really have not been terrible at all, so Hodgson is coming in at the right time.

275. spivey Posted: March 21, 2023 at 12:46 PM (#6120942)

Conte looks very likely out, which he should be.

I think Poch was a great manager for Spurs, but I'm not optimistic a second go at it is in the best interest for anyone.

276. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 22, 2023 at 11:10 AM (#6121054)

There's a good article at the Guardian about the difficulties of refereeing. As someone who already has a lot of sympathy for the refs, it doesn't make me more sympathetic but hopefully it opens the eyes of a few others, at least a little bit.

There were a few things that made me a little uneasy--the rating system for getting the top games seems far from ideal. Also, the use of make up calls like the one De Bruyne got at the end of the match against Fulham after City had the penalty/red against Cancelo earlier. The penalty/red against Cancelo was a call that was very defensible, even if it's made a minority of the time by refs. The De Bruyne penalty was not defensible and should never have been made for any reason.

Refs should be well aware that breaks don't always even out. I'm quite sympathetic that after making a fairly harsh call against one team the ref should be aware of the effect on the game and not look to keep making similar harsh calls against the same team without some balance, but there is a limit to that.

277. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 22, 2023 at 07:06 PM (#6121095)

I never reffed soccer, but I umpired baseball and reffed basketball, and it is incredibly difficult even at that level. I've done my share of ######## about refs, but I try to be magnanimous most of the time. The one that drives me nuts are VAR / replay mistakes. If we're just going to screw up the calls anyway, why drag games out so that they get screwed up in a different way.

278. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 22, 2023 at 07:06 PM (#6121096)

("That level" meaning kids aged about 13-15, in both cases.)

279. SoSH U at work Posted: March 22, 2023 at 07:56 PM (#6121102)

I spent a lot of time as a soccer ref, much more than umping. It's very easy at the lower levels but starts to become difficult as the players improve, largely because they start trying to get away with things. That's actually the opposite of baseball, which is often brutal at the younger levels because pitchers often can't find the plate.

280. jmurph Posted: March 23, 2023 at 04:51 PM (#6121198)

Super disappointing half from Italy (I'm not watching, but it sounds like they deserve to be down by even more).

281. Mefisto Posted: March 23, 2023 at 05:29 PM (#6121205)

Nagelsman out at Bayern.

282. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: March 23, 2023 at 05:51 PM (#6121208)

Super disappointing half from Italy (I'm not watching, but it sounds like they deserve to be down by even more).

Grealish missed an open net before the half that really should have made it 3:0. Game of 2 halves though. England were as atrocious in the second as Italy were in the first.

283. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 23, 2023 at 08:16 PM (#6121217)

Nagelsman out at Bayern.

Inevitable, I suppose, given the results this year.

One wonders if they try to pry Klopp away from Liverpool.

284. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 23, 2023 at 08:40 PM (#6121219)

Tuchel already in, apparently.

285. Textbook Editor Posted: March 23, 2023 at 08:57 PM (#6121221)

It feels like a lifetime ago now, but wasn't Nagelsman one of the people Spurs were interested in before they hired Nuno? It feels like this is a "name" Spurs might go after. Sigh.

286. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: March 23, 2023 at 09:07 PM (#6121224)

Inevitable, I suppose, given the results this year.

I mean, I guess when your standard is running away with the league every year... They are in second, one point behind Dortmund, with almost twice the GD. And a 14 point edge in xg. They are in the Quarter finals of the CL and generally considered to be the second best team behind City. They are in the QF of the DFB Pokal, and huge favourites to win it...

Everyone should wish for their favourite team to have such a "disappointing" season.

287. spivey Posted: March 23, 2023 at 09:10 PM (#6121225)

I think Nagelsmann is a very good coach. League results haven't been great but they lost Lewa, Neuer has been injured, and they're still massively the best team in xGD. They've also been very, very good in the CL, against a very difficult run. Bayern is FC Hollywood for a reason, managing them requires a big personality and ability to deal with politics I'm not sure he had. Also wonder if there was anything behind the scenes. I saw some rumor that this may have been because Spurs and Tuchel were in close contact and Bayern didn't want to let that pass up.

Related, it's not been discussed here but it seems like Ancelotti (who I think is quite overrated as a manager) is definitely done after the year, and potentially likely to get the Brazil job.

It'll be interesting to see who they go for. They've been interested in Poch in the past, Nagelsmann my guess is will probably get one of that job or Spurs.

288. spivey Posted: March 23, 2023 at 09:16 PM (#6121226)

I sometimes wonder why managers are so cheap when 20 million dollars doesn't buy you #### in terms of players. But then you look at this. The manager churn is so relentless at the top, it's so hard for these guys to last past a couple of years. I question some of it, it seems like at any team at like CL level or higher in any of the top leagues any bad run of form can get you fired, and you can't fire all the players. But it is a bit crazy to buy all of these players for one manager's system, then get a new manager (I guess most top managers often play front-foot football with high press and possession... oh, except for Tottenham).

289. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 23, 2023 at 09:23 PM (#6121227)

Tuchel already in, apparently.

Well, if you can't get the real thing, might as well go for the shitty knockoff.

Is it just me, or is Tuchel not actually that good?

290. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 23, 2023 at 09:29 PM (#6121229)

Everyone should wish for their favourite team to have such a "disappointing" season.

Well, that's the problem with Bayern. Merely competing for the league title isn't good enough. Merely being obviously the best team outside England while having some bad luck isn't good enough. They're supposed to win the Bundesliga as though it's a video game every year. And they usually do. It is, of course, spectacularly boring, and makes German football tiresome to follow.

291. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 23, 2023 at 11:45 PM (#6121235)

Bayern is being given about the same chance to win the Bundesliga now as they were when the season started, so even there they have not really underperformed exactly. A better chance in the CL as well, despite having to face City. It's a little too early to see this season as a disappointment.

For me if they play City tough and lose, and go on to win the league it will definitely not have been disappointing (to me anyway, as a mostly disinterested observer).

292. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 24, 2023 at 01:01 AM (#6121236)

Yeah, but betting odds are nothing for most fans. Who cares?

293. The_Ex Posted: March 24, 2023 at 07:34 AM (#6121240)

It seems that some coaches have problems with veteran, highly paid, squads. Nagelsman and Poch both did well with young hungry teams but found veterans less willing to follow them. Potter could be another, the jury is still out.

294. jmurph Posted: March 24, 2023 at 09:05 AM (#6121242)

Ancelotti (who I think is quite overrated as a manager)

295. jmurph Posted: March 24, 2023 at 09:10 AM (#6121243)

Is it just me, or is Tuchel not actually that good?

I'm very skeptical of all the guys who can't seem to last for more than 2 years (less in his last two jobs!).

296. spivey Posted: March 24, 2023 at 09:14 AM (#6121245)

The evidence we have is he's one of the most successful managers of all time. One can certainly be skeptical- he only manages extremely rich teams and wins with them- but man, this seems harsh. Record 4 Champions League titles as a manager, only guy to win the league in the top 5 leagues, etc.

Yeah, I think he may have been very good earlier in his career, though one could argue the Milan team he had was one of the GOATs and he could have won more with them.

I think he was pretty clearly outcoached by Poch in the CL last year, and Donnarumma and Marquinos losing their minds saved him from getting fired then, along with Benzema scoring every chance he had. They were reasonably badly outplayed in some subsequent ties as well. His management style seems to be no tactics, just vibes. I guess there are teams that can work well and perhaps this is one, but I think they're few and far between. His time at Bayern and Napoli didn't go well. There's a reason he went to Everton and was seen in some respects as past-it.

I think if he went to most teams in the EPL, they'd do worse than they're doing now.

297. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 24, 2023 at 09:28 AM (#6121248)

Yeah, but betting odds are nothing for most fans. Who cares?

A fan that cares about winning the league and the CL most of all should be more or less as confident now as they were when the season started, probably a bit more. Seems too early to call that a disappointment, unless the season was a disappointment before it even started.

298. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 24, 2023 at 11:58 AM (#6121262)

There's speculation that Nagelsmann's relationship with a soccer reporter that closely covered the team may have helped things along as well. Maybe the firing doesn't happen without that.

299. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 25, 2023 at 11:52 AM (#6121343)

Bayern is claiming that they have been below standards since the world cup. That's 10 games in the league, plus the two against PSG and one in the league cup.

In the CL they did advance, but overall were probably outplayed by an inferior PSG except for the first 45 minutes of the first game when Mbappe was off the field, so that at least kind of checks out.

In the league, their xGD and xPoints have been way down over the last 10 games versus the prior 15, so that checks out as well. Their schedule over this time has not been especially difficult or anything. Their actual GD per game is down slightly, and their actual points per game is down a fair amount. The 538 ranking is down a bit as well. I think it is safe to say they have played worse since the world cup.

Even so, it is not that many games and I'm not sure it means that much. It definitely is something the management can point to though with a straight face if they want the coach fired.

300. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 25, 2023 at 05:47 PM (#6121352)

Wales was the far inferior team at Croatia, but managed a last minute equalizer anyway. Probably won't mean anything in the long run, but what a screwup by Croatia. Croatia is still very likely to advance from the group, but I guess you never know. Probably more likely (but still unlikely) the 1 point for Wales could end up being the difference between them and Turkey for the other qualifying spot.

Turkey hosts Croatia in 3 days, and now Croatia probably wants a win to make up for what happened just now (whereas before this a draw probably would have been viewed as sufficient). The other teams in the group are bad: Latvia and Armenia.

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