|
|
|
Support BBTF
Thanks to Francis for his generous support.
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.
Hot Topics
Newsblog: Howard Johnson, Al Leiter headline Mets hall of fame class (9 - 5:19pm, Jun 05)Last: Karl from NYNewsblog: Red Sox will host first scheduled doubleheader since 1978 this Sat.; here’s why (23 - 5:00pm, Jun 05)Last: Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and WonderfulNewsblog: Arraez and Let Us Swing (6 - 4:46pm, Jun 05)Last: Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMcNewsblog: Roger Craig, Teacher of an Era-Defining Pitch, Is Dead at 93 (2 - 4:28pm, Jun 05)Last: It's regretful that PASTE was able to get outNewsblog: OMNICHATTER for June 2023 (136 - 4:27pm, Jun 05)Last:  Walt DavisNewsblog: Nestor Cortes Likely To Be Placed On IL With Shoulder Issue (3 - 4:10pm, Jun 05)Last: Walt DavisNewsblog: Report: Nationals' Stephen Strasburg has 'severe nerve damage' (15 - 2:20pm, Jun 05)Last: Howie MenckelNewsblog: Red Sox place Chris Sale on IL with left shoulder inflammation (5 - 2:00pm, Jun 05)Last: jacksone (AKA It's OK...)Newsblog: Marcell Ozuna removed for not hustling in Braves' 8-5 victory (2 - 1:39pm, Jun 05)Last: SoSH U at workNewsblog: 2023 NBA Playoffs Thread (2569 - 12:54pm, Jun 05)Last:  My name is Votto, and I love to get MoppoNewsblog: Beloved ex-Met Bartolo Colon finally retires from baseball at 50 (18 - 12:07pm, Jun 05)Last: JJ1986Hall of Merit: Reranking First Basemen: Discussion Thread (36 - 11:28am, Jun 05)Last: Alex02Newsblog: Aaron Boone’s Rate of Ejections Is Embarrassing ... And Historically Significant (19 - 10:59am, Jun 05)Last: Rob_WoodNewsblog: OT Soccer Thread - The Run In (441 - 10:16am, Jun 05)Last:  jmurphHall of Merit: Reranking Shortstops Ballot (12 - 10:03am, Jun 05)Last: DL from MN
|
|
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
A fix that seems pretty easy would just be to give the keeper a caution and let them keep the ball. A keeper already on a caution should know not to waste time on the ball, just like is already the case for time wasting on goalkicks.
STELLINI IN!!!
I only this rule exists because of the 6 that shows up when I play fifa.
Opposition getting a throw in feels like the right punishment
Violations of the rule do not usually bother me, but there are some games where the strategy from the opening whistle is to slow game play so much that every tactic is employed to its breaking point, including blatant abuse of this rule. In games like that, I'd be more than happy if the ball was just given back to the opposition.
When a team is actively delaying in a close game, I'm not even sure giving the ball back to the opposition is sufficient punishment, but if so it could be used for most delaying tactics, other than maybe feigning injury or refusing to get off the field.
Had this on while doing various chores, not really paying attention until the penalty made it 2-1. The last 20 minutes were a ton of fun and the goal to tie it was incredible.
Rumored number one candidate at Spurs is Nagelsman.
I find the top manager merry-go-round dizzying. I get that Bayern is a bigger job than Spurs. But then, why hire Thomas Tuchel, whose main accomplishment is getting lucky in the Champions League with Chelsea?
I think his on-field performances have generally been very good to excellent. It's the other stuff about him that people tend not to like.
He also took PSG to the finals of the CL, which no one else has come close to doing.
Poch took them to the semis where they lost a tie vs City that was pretty even.
That said, I think Tuchel's clearly a very good coach. I think it'd be a mistake to wave away their CL run as luck. They were incredibly good defensively after he took over, they beat City fair and square and were probably like the 3rd best team in the world at that moment in time. He changed the careers of Rudiger and Christensen.
Wales is also very happy, winning a close one against a terrible Latvia team. With Croatia also beating Turkey they are in very good shape now.
It seems more like it's been totally ignored since the day it was introduced than getting worse every year to me.
When there is obviously no contact at all (despite the offensive player's best efforts) it can look pretty bad/pointless, but that's after the fact.
With Liverpool and Brighton not winning, Chelsea still has an outside shot at Europa if they care. Very decent shot at Europa Conference, which would be amusing. Almost as amusing if that spot went to Liverpool.
edit: scored as an own goal for some reason on infogol, but that's not right at all.
It was our home team IK Uppsala (newly promoted to the Damallsvenskan) against Hammarby. Total attendance was around 700, which honestly is pretty solid given that we still have six inches of snow on the ground. Hammarby aren't one of the traditional big powers in the women's game, but they've made a decent push to assemble a serious team in the last couple years. They certainly outclassed Uppsala who managed to keep it close (only conceding their second goal in added time of the second half) in spite of getting pushed around all game.
Eric spent about 40 minutes actually sitting in his seat and a fair amount of that seemed to actually include watching the game. Most of the rest of the time was spent wandering around the stadium, jumping in the snow, and clapping his hands along with the (pretty intense) away fans who sang and chanted for the entire 90 minutes.
Really looking forward to some more games this spring and summer once the weather turns. Nice park, and only about a 10 minute bike ride from home.
Southampton is in bad shape. They might not (or might...) be one of the worst three teams in the league, but if not they are certainly close. At this point I doubt they get out of the hole they dug for themselves. They weren't good today. Last time they were in the Championship was over 10 years ago.
Rodgers sacked at Leicester.
Bit ironic in that Newcastle has seemingly taken the same approach from the other side multiple times this year.
I guess some people were handing them third, but there is no prize for third, and what people have really been doing is more or less handing them a CL spot. It's a lot harder for two teams to pass them than one. A CL spot is certainly not guaranteed, but they are still strong favorites to get one (73%). They are also still favored to finish ahead of Newcastle (just a tad), even with a loss, and a loss was not guaranteed coming into the game.
edit: also while they are level on points, Manchester United still has the easier remaining schedule and is likely considered the slightly better team as well. Even if they were considered exactly equal they would be ever so slightly favored for third, despite the GD disadvantage.
As though ... they were rooting for the lesser evil???
Maybe they think they need to move now for Nagelsmann? Could there be any other good reason?
edit: if so, this whole chain of events is quite ludicrous, as Nagelsmann was also sacked for Tuchel, who Chelsea sacked for Potter to begin with.
Though he might be the Spurs favorite now, they absolutely love to hire Chelsea castoffs.
No idea how the culture is at these teams versus Brighton, and maybe now that he has had his big Chelsea payday maybe that becomes more important to him going forward?
By the way, supposedly he was making £2 million per year at Brighton, and getting the Chelsea job and then getting sacked from it made him much more than that in 6.5 months (I'm not actually sure how much, but it was something like a £10-12 million per year contract and they paid him some "severance" on top of what he already earned, though apparently not the remaining value of his contract.)
Highest team outside of the top 4 leagues is not currently PSG, but instead is Benfica who really have been excellent so far this year. La Liga and Bundesliga only have 3 teams each in the top 25--just the usual suspects. Serie A has 5. The last two teams are Porto and Ajax (with Feyenoord basically Ajax's equal by ELO right now, and almost certain to win the Eredivisie).
Seems totally bonkers to me, but I already felt that way with Bayern sacking Nagelsman to hire Tuchel, who was sacked for Potter just a few months ago. At some point, these guys are kind of interchangeable good, not great managers. Why not give someone a chance to actually develop his own squad and put a stamp on it? People act like Arsenal took some crazy risk with Mik Arteta, but when you look at it he'd been manager for a grand total of three seasons before he saw results. I get that the economics of football kind of incentivize radical win-now attitudes for a lot of clubs, but come on.
And of the those first eight or so sackings, the only team that has truly improved its fortunes since then is Villa.
The good news is Lucas can't be subbed on for the next three games!
They really can't afford any more games like this though. For example, lose to Brighton next Saturday and they are likely done, especially since Brighton will be yet another team they would have to pass to make the CL.
edit: I guess for a game like the ones today that start a few minutes after sunset getting fluids via IV right at sundown is probably the best bet. Is that something they do?
The dropped 4 dropped points in the last 2 games basically left them with little margin for error, and errors are all they seem to traffic in these days. To be honest, they might need a miracle not to wind up in the Europa Conference next season.
It would be just tremendous fun to have Brighton in the Champions League next season, so if Spurs don't make it I really hope Brighton does.
Just heard on the Guardian podcast: 4th Chelsea-Liverpool match in a row without a goal, and 7 hours and 45 minutes without a goal.
I think we might have a Chelsea fan or two in our midst, so with apologies to them, their failure this year is absolutely hilarious to me. The whole thing over the 2 transfer windows about their genius new hack (the long term contracts) just immediately blowing up in their face is great, and now the talk is they're going to need to sell like crazy this summer to correct the financial mess they've created.
Graun
My brother is a Chelsea fan, so I should be taking less glee out of this. But he didn't take any less glee out of Arsenal's struggles for the last several years, so screw it. Trolololololol
West Ham is going to get relegated if they're not careful. Then it's goodbye, Rice and Paqueta, hello, irrelevance.
Relegation odds:
May 3: City/WestHam
May 3: Liverpool/Fulham
May 4: Brighton/United
not yet scheduled: Newcastle/Brighton
In addition, two more will have to be made up due to FA cup semis (April 22). Neither has been scheduled yet:
United/Chelsea
Brighton/City
If City or United make the European semis, these will be scheduled for the last midweek of the season. Otherwise they will be one of the two prior weeks (May 10 or May 17).
So, these teams will all have games in hand until early May, which is the first midweek that City and United have open. In the case of United and City, two games, and in the case of Brighton, three games (unless they reschedule the Newcastle/Brighton one soon. Not sure what they are waiting for since neither are in Europe.) It could be very interesting if Brighton has 3 games in hand late in the season, though playing 7 games in May, with 4 of them being games against United, Newcastle, Arsenal, and City, might be a nightmare.
Where the high and low GD for these two teams actually does matter is if either slips up and draws level on points with the chasing teams. United is very likely to lose the GD battle there, and Newcastle is pretty likely to win it.
Likewise, for the three chasing teams GD relative to each other probably means nothing for the top 4 chase. It could easily matter for Europa though.
Few soccer games are actually played this way though, and even the better teams tend to play more conservatively than seems optimal. Personally I think some coaches of good teams are probably too conservative (notably Pep at City) but I'm definitely not totally sold on this idea. The main reason is that it's not so easy to just unilaterally decide to open things up. Teams playing defensively on the counter have an enormous advantage in soccer relative to their skill level, and this seems to still be true when the game is being played in a more open style. The better teams can't open things up too much without exposing themselves to too many chances in a way that is suboptimal relative to their better talent.
Where I think teams play too conservatively most is right when they get the ball back--they don't seem to often enough look really take a chance looking for the runners before the opposing defense is set. Attacking before the defense is set creates a huge advantage, but I think it also risks the ball coming right back the other way before your own team is set, which is precisely what the better teams are trying to prevent. I think it's a more complicated analysis than just "coaches hate to take risks".
A mediocre to weak team really can't seem to play a very open style and have any real success in top leagues. We saw Leeds try it under Bielsa and in my view teams, even the better teams, didn't take long to just look to counter Leeds on every possession--moving straight through their midfield and attacking their defensive line with tons of space. I think it became a suboptimal strategy against teams better and worse than them.
Arsenal is also favored at Liverpool. The last time that happened must have been close to a decade ago.
Klopp, though, has made a whole career out of playing as though top-flight football were a video game. It becomes a problem when your squad starts aging, as it did at Dortmund toward the end, and as appears to have happened this year at Liverpool. But when he has the bodies it's awfully hard to beat.
Agreed. It has made them a hell of a lot of fun to watch, but it doesn't work unless you're able to exhaust your opponent physically.
No they're not, shut up. Nobody is allowed to say things like this.
Sheffield United has had a slightly tougher go of it, but they seem very likely to be the second team promoted. Middlesbrough and Luton are shoe-ins for the playoff, with the final slots likely to go to Millwall and Blcackburn. Lot left to play for there though, as a number of other teams could still nab a spot with a strong finish.
The other favorites coming in to the year: West Brom, Norwich, and Watford all have had pretty disappointing seasons relative to expectation as the other most recently relegated teams. All alive now for a playoff spot, but all needing to go on a run to finish off the season even to achieve that.
What an unlucky year to be Notts County by the way (one of the only teams in the world actually older than Wrexham). This team is head and shoulders above the rest of the league, and yet likely will have to fight their way through a tough playoff to be promoted due to Wrexham having the hollywood funding.
edit: looks like bettors don't think much of it either. Chelsea's odds of advancing over Real Madrid went down a few percentage points, to 37%. Odds of winning the trophy also down at least a percentage point, to 6% now.
I expected them to get roasted by Madrid either way, but yeah, it's pretty crazy, and really only makes sense if they thought they were going to get Nagelsman or whomever in right away.
Few of the other chasing teams could take advantage.
They have pulled out result after result, including the game today. A very good team in any Championship year, but by most indications not as good as their record. Unless they can take it up another notch they should be one of the favorites to go back down, as most promoted teams are.
This year the three worst teams in the top flight are probably the three promoted ones, and yes that includes Fulham.
Still, it's been a very fun year for Burnley fans (that is, if there are any). Their ELO has soared due to all the results. They grade out (by ELO) as what would be a midtable EPL team, and around high 30s in the world. In fact, their rating and ranking by clubelo anyway are as high as they have been since the 1970s, and that includes those years where they somehow managed a top half finish in the EPL.
edit: also helps Sheffield Untied in two ways: Middlesbrough takes the loss, and Burnely will be hung over for their game against United on Monday.
I was at Bramall Lane today and saw Sheffield United deservedly beat Wigan 1-0. Should have been more. 11 points from their last seven games will see them join Burnley.
The two teams meet on Easter Monday. Burnley have only lost twice this season in the league, and are 19 league games unbeaten. Their last defeat was 5-2 at Sheffield United in November.
In the final tally, United didn't suffer on the scoreboard as a result of going without Casemiro for 7 games, taking more points than predicted over those games and advancing in the FA cup. They didn't look good in some of those games, but mostly got the results. The biggest miss was actually dropping 2 points against Southampton because they had to play with 10 most of the game after Casemiro was sent off.
Is United truly deserving of a top 4 spot this year? The only teams you can really make an argument for being meaningfully ahead of them based on performance are City/Arsenal/Newcastle/Brighton. Newcastle is even with them in the table so that's neither here not there. It really comes down to whether you think Brighton's performance this year should have them as top 4 already or not. I think there is definitely an argument for it. Fortunately we also get to see Brighton play United twice coming up so should get some perspective there.
Looking at talent alone, United should be better than Brighton and Newcastle. But Liverpool and Chelsea should be better than United too, so that's a completely different conversation.
I'm in the camp that is firmly of the view that runaway scorelines and xG games should be regressed a bit, which is already expressed somewhat by a figure like xPoints (using penalty included xG as a base). Most ELO systems already do this using actual scoreline as a base. Winning close games is a skill to some extent, and playing to the scoreline is also a skill to some extent. Both often get washed out in the randomness of results but in the case of certain extreme examples (like Atleti at their peak) it becomes very evident there is something there.
We also saw something similar with Arsenal last year who had a few real stinkers against the top of the league at the beginning of the year, causing more traditional xG analysts to think of them as relative crap way too late in the season than was appropriate.
Even the announcers thought those flashed odds seemed very generous to Tottenham.
edit: and then Son scores a gorgeous one. Edge Spurs now! (Current xG 0.02-0.57 to Brighton).
If you look at their roster, well -- people talk about how bloated the Chelsea first team is. My last count was that they were carrying 31 players. United? They're carrying 40, and yet somehow they can't get good midfield play out of anybody other than Eriksen and Casimero and don't have a striker worth the name. They're not snakebit on the goalscoring front the way Chelsea has been, but their rosters aren't entirely dissimilar. Even Gea, once an earth-bestriding superstar, has looked pretty ordinary.
Which is to say, their roster does not exactly scream, "Better than Liverpool and Brighton and Brentford and Chelsea and Newcastle!" at the moment. They have a world-class winger and a lot of guys who seem like they should be better than they are.
(EDIT: I should acknowledge that Bruno Fernandes is still excellent, too.)
I think part of what's going on in the media, anyway, is that a lot of the people covering football right now remember the glory days of Ferguson and Wenger and really, really want the story of Arsenal's return to be the story of the return of the old rivalry. Every time Man U wins a couple of games in a row we hear about how they're "in form" (no joke, I heard someone describe them this way before the Newcastle match, at which point their last two league matches were an ugly draw against Southampton and the hilarious smackdown they took at Anfield). But they've never really been in form this year, and ten Hag & co are going to have some serious thinking to do over the summer if they want to have any hope of catching up with Arsenal and City. The old rivalry, such as it is, remains for bragging rights, not title shots, not yet.
I was saying that United had lesser talent than Liverpool and Chelsea right now, not the other way around. Pretty sure that's the general view. Betting odds have had United as worse going forward than both those teams the entire year. Maybe just now that has started to change with Chelsea losing their manager and being a basket case. I think few would say that the Brighton personnel is superior. Probably few would say that about Newcastle too, but there is an argument there at least.
I do think, in a more fair world, United is probably behind Brighton in the table now but ahead of Tottenham. Liverpool is a harder one.
Tottenham is living quite the charmed life today.
Marsch rumored to be next manager? They need to do something fast.
This City team is super sleep-inducing when they play this way. It's almost impossible for me to watch.
It's a mess.
That seemed to be the case with Newcastle's goal that was waved off.
I can't believe Villa is up to sixth in the table.
These teams are much harder than the ones they've been facing though, so the party probably ends now.
Probably one of the most blatant recent non-calls that was supposedly not given due to hitting high enough up on the arm was this one by Bournemouth against Arsenal.
The Mitoma call is probably right. If the premiere league does not want to call defensive handballs, they should find some other reason not to give them. This "high enough on the arm" thing is just becoming an embarrassment.
That wasn't the goal I was talking about. Wilson had one waved off today that was up near the shoulder.
Not sure I really love the feast-or-famine nature of the EPL on the whole, at the moment, but it does make for more meaningful football, ironically.
They looked poor to start the game today, but have come on and have now created more big chances than Leeds, and probably should be winning.
Palace's schedule is extremely easy for the rest of the year. They have almost no chance of going down.
None of this means they should have fired Vieira, because they probably would have been totally fine with him too.
A win today would put Leeds pretty much out of reach of going down. Even with a draw or loss they are not in bad shape. The group of 4 including Leeds, West Ham, Wolves, and Palace are all pretty to very unlikely to go down now, as all have won their last game and were in decent shape before. It's the other 5 teams that have a lot to worry about still.
Announcers claiming that Crystal Palace did nothing in the first half until the goal at the end, but that's very misleading. Palace started turning it on about halfway through the first half, and since then have had all the shots and xG: 0.80-0.00 before the 23rd minute, 0.21-2.67 since. It's been extermely one sided for the last 50 minutes.
edit: and another wide open xG goal, so the information above is already out of date. After today Palace will be close to its highest 538 rating of the year, only potentially matched by what they had back in August.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main