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Tuesday, February 21, 2023

OT Soccer Thread - Champions League Knockout Stages Begin

New soccer thread!

Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: February 21, 2023 at 04:16 PM | 537 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off topic, soccer

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   301. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: March 25, 2023 at 06:22 PM (#6121353)
pilf
   302. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 26, 2023 at 12:15 PM (#6121366)
Collina acknowledged the 6-second rule for keepers getting rid of the ball is being badly abused, seemingly slightly worse every year. The problem is the punishment does not seem fair for the crime, as an indirect kick in the box is too much punishment for dallying a bit.

A fix that seems pretty easy would just be to give the keeper a caution and let them keep the ball. A keeper already on a caution should know not to waste time on the ball, just like is already the case for time wasting on goalkicks.
   303. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 26, 2023 at 12:31 PM (#6121367)
Denmark, up 0-2 at Kazakhstan, gave up 3 goals in the last 20 minutes to lose. That's roughly the equivalent of the USMNT losing after having an 0-2 lead late at Cuba.
   304. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 26, 2023 at 12:47 PM (#6121369)
England has essentially already qualified for Euro 2024 now, just 1.5 games into qualifying.
   305. bestergonomicgamingchair.com Posted: March 26, 2023 at 06:21 PM (#6121400)
CONTE OUT!
STELLINI IN!!!
   306. Mefisto Posted: March 27, 2023 at 10:21 AM (#6121430)
Looks like United are planning to reinstate Greenwood. Unless there's something dramatic I don't know -- there might be because charges were dropped for unstated reasons -- this is disgusting.
   307. KronicFatigue Posted: March 27, 2023 at 12:55 PM (#6121447)
Collina acknowledged the 6-second rule for keepers getting rid of the ball is being badly abused, seemingly slightly worse every year. The problem is the punishment does not seem fair for the crime, as an indirect kick in the box is too much punishment for dallying a bit.

A fix that seems pretty easy would just be to give the keeper a caution and let them keep the ball. A keeper already on a caution should know not to waste time on the ball, just like is already the case for time wasting on goalkicks.


I only this rule exists because of the 6 that shows up when I play fifa.

Opposition getting a throw in feels like the right punishment
   308. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 27, 2023 at 01:17 PM (#6121450)
Actually I had not thought about something that simple. But with the new drop ball rules just giving one team the ball, the ref could just give the ball to the other side at the halfway line.

Violations of the rule do not usually bother me, but there are some games where the strategy from the opening whistle is to slow game play so much that every tactic is employed to its breaking point, including blatant abuse of this rule. In games like that, I'd be more than happy if the ball was just given back to the opposition.

When a team is actively delaying in a close game, I'm not even sure giving the ball back to the opposition is sufficient punishment, but if so it could be used for most delaying tactics, other than maybe feigning injury or refusing to get off the field.
   309. jmurph Posted: March 27, 2023 at 01:21 PM (#6121451)
Denmark, up 0-2 at Kazakhstan, gave up 3 goals in the last 20 minutes to lose.

Had this on while doing various chores, not really paying attention until the penalty made it 2-1. The last 20 minutes were a ton of fun and the goal to tie it was incredible.
   310. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: March 27, 2023 at 03:16 PM (#6121478)
Conte is out at Spurs, and Nagelsman is out at Bayern.

Rumored number one candidate at Spurs is Nagelsman.

I find the top manager merry-go-round dizzying. I get that Bayern is a bigger job than Spurs. But then, why hire Thomas Tuchel, whose main accomplishment is getting lucky in the Champions League with Chelsea?
   311. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 27, 2023 at 05:29 PM (#6121507)
In his two years at Dortmund they had their two best underlying league performances of the last 10 years, including Klopp's last years. He also took PSG to the finals of the CL, which no one else has come close to doing. In his three years there his PSG teams lost in the CL KOs to City twice and Bayern once, with one final and one semi-final appearance.

I think his on-field performances have generally been very good to excellent. It's the other stuff about him that people tend not to like.
   312. spivey Posted: March 27, 2023 at 07:48 PM (#6121526)
Tuchel also took Mainz to 5th.

He also took PSG to the finals of the CL, which no one else has come close to doing.

Poch took them to the semis where they lost a tie vs City that was pretty even.

That said, I think Tuchel's clearly a very good coach. I think it'd be a mistake to wave away their CL run as luck. They were incredibly good defensively after he took over, they beat City fair and square and were probably like the 3rd best team in the world at that moment in time. He changed the careers of Rudiger and Christensen.
   313. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 27, 2023 at 09:14 PM (#6121536)
You are right... I forgot that Tuchel left halfway through that year. Poch did well to take them that far and have them perform that well against City in the semis. Didn't do so well in Ligue 1 though the same year, though neither did Tuchel that year.
   314. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 28, 2023 at 07:04 PM (#6121644)
Scotland had the dream result today, beating Span at home 2-0. Combined with Norway only drawing at Georgia, Scotland now is in a great position to make the tournament, since Norway is their main competition.

Wales is also very happy, winning a close one against a terrible Latvia team. With Croatia also beating Turkey they are in very good shape now.
   315. manchestermets Posted: March 29, 2023 at 11:28 AM (#6121693)
Collina acknowledged the 6-second rule for keepers getting rid of the ball is being badly abused, seemingly slightly worse every year.


It seems more like it's been totally ignored since the day it was introduced than getting worse every year to me.
   316. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 01, 2023 at 08:42 AM (#6122122)
Now that City has taken the lead, unfortunately I think this one is likely over. City has been much better than Liverpool to this point, and the only thing Liverpool looked good at all on was the break. Down a goal it's going to be very hard for them to get much on the break now with City playing ball control.
   317. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 01, 2023 at 09:01 AM (#6122124)
Gakpo looked bad on that simulation attempt. "Why would you do that in the age of VAR" gets thrown around a lot. Here's why: if you throw your leg back, full the ref, AND get lucky enough that when you do so your leg happens to contact the defender, then maybe VAR doesn't overturn it due to the high bar. An offensive player has to commit to the bit and hope there is incidental contact. We've seen it work before, even in the age of VAR.

When there is obviously no contact at all (despite the offensive player's best efforts) it can look pretty bad/pointless, but that's after the fact.
   318. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 01, 2023 at 12:26 PM (#6122137)
EPL winner odds:
arsenal         56
city            44

With Liverpool and Brighton not winning, Chelsea still has an outside shot at Europa if they care. Very decent shot at Europa Conference, which would be amusing. Almost as amusing if that spot went to Liverpool.
   319. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: April 01, 2023 at 12:36 PM (#6122139)
That was a grade-A whipping City laid on Liverpool, especially in the second half. They needed a mercy rule.
   320. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 01, 2023 at 12:47 PM (#6122141)
Upamecano scored from his own half. An overhit through ball that was just whiffed on by the keeper as it took a slightly bad bounce over his leg. Absolute howler of the type I've almost never seen before.
edit: scored as an own goal for some reason on infogol, but that's not right at all.
   321. spivey Posted: April 01, 2023 at 12:54 PM (#6122144)
I see Dortmund is up to their old antics when they play at Allianz Arena.
   322. Baldrick Posted: April 01, 2023 at 04:28 PM (#6122177)
Took my kiddo to his first soccer game today. He just turned two, and is definitely too young to get much from the experience. But we had a pretty nice day out.

It was our home team IK Uppsala (newly promoted to the Damallsvenskan) against Hammarby. Total attendance was around 700, which honestly is pretty solid given that we still have six inches of snow on the ground. Hammarby aren't one of the traditional big powers in the women's game, but they've made a decent push to assemble a serious team in the last couple years. They certainly outclassed Uppsala who managed to keep it close (only conceding their second goal in added time of the second half) in spite of getting pushed around all game.

Eric spent about 40 minutes actually sitting in his seat and a fair amount of that seemed to actually include watching the game. Most of the rest of the time was spent wandering around the stadium, jumping in the snow, and clapping his hands along with the (pretty intense) away fans who sang and chanted for the entire 90 minutes.

Really looking forward to some more games this spring and summer once the weather turns. Nice park, and only about a 10 minute bike ride from home.
   323. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 02, 2023 at 11:00 AM (#6122259)
Big winners in the relegation race this week were Palace and West Ham. Neither are likely to be relegated now. Despite West Ham being just a point out of the relegation zone they have a game in hand, a somewhat favorable schedule, and are just far better than all of the other teams fighting relegation.

Southampton is in bad shape. They might not (or might...) be one of the worst three teams in the league, but if not they are certainly close. At this point I doubt they get out of the hole they dug for themselves. They weren't good today. Last time they were in the Championship was over 10 years ago.

Rodgers sacked at Leicester.
   324. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 02, 2023 at 11:47 AM (#6122260)
United slowing the game down a bit from the opening whistle. Annoying from a fan's perspective but makes sense strategically based on the table and that this game is in Newcastle.

Bit ironic in that Newcastle has seemingly taken the same approach from the other side multiple times this year.
   325. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: April 02, 2023 at 02:39 PM (#6122272)
Newcastle fairly cruised to victory in the end. I always thought people were being presumptuous when they just handed third place to Man U, as though (a) Newscastle wasn't pretty good itself and (b) Manchester hadn't shown several times this season exactly how inconsistent and vulnerable they're capable of being.
   326. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 02, 2023 at 03:11 PM (#6122277)
Newcastle played well today, but Manchester United was very poor. Thar's for sure.

I guess some people were handing them third, but there is no prize for third, and what people have really been doing is more or less handing them a CL spot. It's a lot harder for two teams to pass them than one. A CL spot is certainly not guaranteed, but they are still strong favorites to get one (73%). They are also still favored to finish ahead of Newcastle (just a tad), even with a loss, and a loss was not guaranteed coming into the game.

edit: also while they are level on points, Manchester United still has the easier remaining schedule and is likely considered the slightly better team as well. Even if they were considered exactly equal they would be ever so slightly favored for third, despite the GD disadvantage.
   327. bestergonomicgamingchair.com Posted: April 02, 2023 at 04:14 PM (#6122290)
Chelsea have sacked manager Graham Potter, the London club said on Sunday with the team 11th in the Premier League.

“Graham has agreed to collaborate with the club to facilitate a smooth transition,” Chelsea said in a statement.

“Bruno Saltor will take charge of the team as interim head coach.”
   328. bestergonomicgamingchair.com Posted: April 02, 2023 at 04:15 PM (#6122291)
I always thought people were being presumptuous when they just handed third place to Man U, as though


As though ... they were rooting for the lesser evil???
   329. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 02, 2023 at 04:51 PM (#6122296)
Sacking Potter now makes no sense to me. There is nothing left for Chelsea to play for, and there is still a chance he is the best guy for the job.

Maybe they think they need to move now for Nagelsmann? Could there be any other good reason?

edit: if so, this whole chain of events is quite ludicrous, as Nagelsmann was also sacked for Tuchel, who Chelsea sacked for Potter to begin with.
   330. spivey Posted: April 02, 2023 at 06:14 PM (#6122311)
Tottenham is just attractive enough to make other teams fire their coaches to get the available world class managers.
   331. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 02, 2023 at 06:24 PM (#6122312)
Yeah, it doesn't make much sense to do it now unless it's for Nagelsmann.
   332. jmurph Posted: April 02, 2023 at 07:12 PM (#6122318)
So let’s assume Potter gets the Leicester job, or West Ham if it comes open at the end of the season. Are those definitely better jobs than Brighton? I’m guessing most will say yes. I’m not certain.

Though he might be the Spurs favorite now, they absolutely love to hire Chelsea castoffs.
   333. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 02, 2023 at 08:19 PM (#6122323)
I bet he makes more money with either job than he was making at Brighton. Also, if he can stay in the new job for at least a couple years then the job itself is probably "better" in the sense that he is likely to be leading the team to a higher spot in the table.

No idea how the culture is at these teams versus Brighton, and maybe now that he has had his big Chelsea payday maybe that becomes more important to him going forward?

By the way, supposedly he was making £2 million per year at Brighton, and getting the Chelsea job and then getting sacked from it made him much more than that in 6.5 months (I'm not actually sure how much, but it was something like a £10-12 million per year contract and they paid him some "severance" on top of what he already earned, though apparently not the remaining value of his contract.)
   334. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 02, 2023 at 08:39 PM (#6122328)
Some interesting ELO tidbits. By clubelo anyway, Arsenal is now top 3, only behind powerhouses City and Bayern. Newcastle is top 10 for the first time. The EPL has 10 teams in the top 25, including Brighton, Brentford and Villa.

Highest team outside of the top 4 leagues is not currently PSG, but instead is Benfica who really have been excellent so far this year. La Liga and Bundesliga only have 3 teams each in the top 25--just the usual suspects. Serie A has 5. The last two teams are Porto and Ajax (with Feyenoord basically Ajax's equal by ELO right now, and almost certain to win the Eredivisie).
   335. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: April 03, 2023 at 10:04 AM (#6122368)
Sacking Potter now makes no sense to me. There is nothing left for Chelsea to play for, and there is still a chance he is the best guy for the job.


Seems totally bonkers to me, but I already felt that way with Bayern sacking Nagelsman to hire Tuchel, who was sacked for Potter just a few months ago. At some point, these guys are kind of interchangeable good, not great managers. Why not give someone a chance to actually develop his own squad and put a stamp on it? People act like Arsenal took some crazy risk with Mik Arteta, but when you look at it he'd been manager for a grand total of three seasons before he saw results. I get that the economics of football kind of incentivize radical win-now attitudes for a lot of clubs, but come on.
   336. SoSH U at work Posted: April 03, 2023 at 10:28 AM (#6122373)
There have been 12 managerial firings in the Premier League since the start of the season, with half the teams having sacked their boss at some point (Chelsea and Southampton having doubled up). That seems insane.

And of the those first eight or so sackings, the only team that has truly improved its fortunes since then is Villa.
   337. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 03, 2023 at 10:45 AM (#6122380)
Seems totally bonkers to me, but I already felt that way with Bayern sacking Nagelsman to hire Tuchel, who was sacked for Potter just a few months ago. At some point, these guys are kind of interchangeable good, not great managers.
All fair. To the extent it matters though one major difference is that Bayern is in the thick of three competitions, and could win or lose all three of them. Bayern has everything to play for right now. Chelsea is in the thick of nothing.
   338. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 03, 2023 at 04:56 PM (#6122465)
Everton outplayed Spurs except for two really bad moments, and probably should have won. They remain on the bubble for relegation. Spurs circling the drain for top 4.
   339. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 03, 2023 at 04:57 PM (#6122466)
This is just peak Spurs. Play only even against one of the worst teams in the league for 60 minutes. Get a fortunate red card from a moment of stupidity by Doucoure. Still don't create anything but manage to get a penalty. Proceed to be completely unable to keep the ball with the lead against ten men. Sub on ####### LUCAS MOURA ####### AGAIN and he commits a ridiculous red card foul to make it 10v10. Concede a 30 yard goal from a ####### CENTER BACK where Lloris doesn't even move.

The good news is Lucas can't be subbed on for the next three games!
   340. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 03, 2023 at 05:05 PM (#6122470)
I've never really been a fan of Lucas, but historically he's had his uses - mainly as a player that can bring a chaotic element to a game. You know what you don't want when you're (for some reason) desperately defending a 1-0 lead against 10 men? A CHAOTIC ELEMENT!
   341. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 03, 2023 at 05:28 PM (#6122472)
I was a tad harsh on Spurs' chances for a CL spot. Currently 26% which is the inverse of United, so certainly far from impossible. Also the best chance of anyone outside of the 4 teams currently slated for a spot. (Liverpool 24%, Brighton 14%).

They really can't afford any more games like this though. For example, lose to Brighton next Saturday and they are likely done, especially since Brighton will be yet another team they would have to pass to make the CL.
   342. spivey Posted: April 03, 2023 at 05:36 PM (#6122473)
Being a Tottenham fan is ####### exhausting. Like, it really is.
   343. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 04, 2023 at 02:56 PM (#6122591)
Do muslim athletes seriously not drink any water for the entire 12 hours for a game that starts right at sunset? That seems like a recipe for disaster.

edit: I guess for a game like the ones today that start a few minutes after sunset getting fluids via IV right at sundown is probably the best bet. Is that something they do?
   344. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: April 04, 2023 at 04:40 PM (#6122604)
This Liverpool-Chelsea match has been one of the most depressing displays of shitty football by underachieving sides I've ever watched. It's both clubs in a nutshell: Chelsea can't buy a goal (right down to having one disallowed), and Liverpool is an arbitrary basket case that can't get out of its own way.
   345. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 04, 2023 at 06:20 PM (#6122617)
Brighton has now passed Liverpool in odds of making top 4. Beat Tottenham on the weekend and they will pass them as well. Brighton still has the other two teams they are chasing on their schedule as well. Way too early to write them off. They didn't actually have the best game today but a win on the road is always big.
   346. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: April 04, 2023 at 06:22 PM (#6122618)
The idea of Brighton playing in the Champions League fairly makes me tingle with joy.
   347. Textbook Editor Posted: April 05, 2023 at 12:46 AM (#6122658)
To have any shot at top 4, Tottenham pretty much have to beat Brighton, Newcastle, AND Man United, and then basically win the rest of their games (I think they could afford 1 loss, but the loss almost has to be Liverpool and not to the other 3 teams mentioned previously). And even if they got 24 points from their last 9 games, they might *still* need help.

The dropped 4 dropped points in the last 2 games basically left them with little margin for error, and errors are all they seem to traffic in these days. To be honest, they might need a miracle not to wind up in the Europa Conference next season.

It would be just tremendous fun to have Brighton in the Champions League next season, so if Spurs don't make it I really hope Brighton does.
   348. jmurph Posted: April 05, 2023 at 12:39 PM (#6122689)
This Liverpool-Chelsea match has been one of the most depressing displays of shitty football by underachieving sides I've ever watched. It's both clubs in a nutshell: Chelsea can't buy a goal (right down to having one disallowed), and Liverpool is an arbitrary basket case that can't get out of its own way.

Just heard on the Guardian podcast: 4th Chelsea-Liverpool match in a row without a goal, and 7 hours and 45 minutes without a goal.

I think we might have a Chelsea fan or two in our midst, so with apologies to them, their failure this year is absolutely hilarious to me. The whole thing over the 2 transfer windows about their genius new hack (the long term contracts) just immediately blowing up in their face is great, and now the talk is they're going to need to sell like crazy this summer to correct the financial mess they've created.
   349. bestergonomicgamingchair.com Posted: April 05, 2023 at 12:46 PM (#6122691)
You might not be done laughing jmurph ...
Chelsea are preparing to hold talks with Luis Enrique, who is vying with Julian Nagelsmann for the manager’s job, but have not ruled out making Frank Lampard interim coach if they cannot convince one of their preferred options to take over before the summer.


Graun
   350. jmurph Posted: April 05, 2023 at 02:53 PM (#6122712)
Delightful. I love it.
   351. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: April 05, 2023 at 03:44 PM (#6122728)
According to Sky Sports, it's a done deal.

My brother is a Chelsea fan, so I should be taking less glee out of this. But he didn't take any less glee out of Arsenal's struggles for the last several years, so screw it. Trolololololol
   352. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 05, 2023 at 04:42 PM (#6122744)
ok what's the point of firing Potter just to take on Lampard as interim manager. I assume it's not long term.
   353. SoSH U at work Posted: April 05, 2023 at 05:02 PM (#6122748)
I wouldn't be surprised to see the season's 13th sacking after that performance.
   354. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: April 05, 2023 at 05:08 PM (#6122749)
I wouldn't be surprised to see the season's 13th sacking after that performance.


West Ham is going to get relegated if they're not careful. Then it's goodbye, Rice and Paqueta, hello, irrelevance.
   355. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 05, 2023 at 05:14 PM (#6122751)
West Ham was likely to lose anyway, but man did they give that one away so that there was no doubt.

Relegation odds:
southampton  78

forest       58
bournemouth  51

leicester    31
everton      30

wolves       17.5
west ham     14.5
leeds        14

palace        6
   356. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 05, 2023 at 05:27 PM (#6122752)
Top 4 odds. Brighton has again slipped just a tad. The betting market really doesn't like them yet at all, even now.
united       77.5
newcastle    72.5

tottenham    21
liverpool    14.5
brighton     14

villa         0.3
chelsea       0.1
brentford     0.1
United's schedule remains just a bit easier than Newcastle's, despite the easier matchup today (mostly due to being at home and a little due to expected opponent quality).
   357. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 05, 2023 at 05:38 PM (#6122753)
Top 6 odds:
united       95
newcastle    94

tottenham    77
liverpool    66
brighton     57

villa         5.75
brentford     2.5
chelsea       2.5
fulham        0.25
   358. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 05, 2023 at 06:06 PM (#6122756)
Also, finally almost all the cancelled games have been made up. Only 4 remain:
May 3: City/WestHam
May 3: Liverpool/Fulham
May 4: Brighton/United
not yet scheduled: Newcastle/Brighton

In addition, two more will have to be made up due to FA cup semis (April 22). Neither has been scheduled yet:
United/Chelsea
Brighton/City

If City or United make the European semis, these will be scheduled for the last midweek of the season. Otherwise they will be one of the two prior weeks (May 10 or May 17).

So, these teams will all have games in hand until early May, which is the first midweek that City and United have open. In the case of United and City, two games, and in the case of Brighton, three games (unless they reschedule the Newcastle/Brighton one soon. Not sure what they are waiting for since neither are in Europe.) It could be very interesting if Brighton has 3 games in hand late in the season, though playing 7 games in May, with 4 of them being games against United, Newcastle, Arsenal, and City, might be a nightmare.
   359. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 05, 2023 at 06:23 PM (#6122761)
The difference in GD between United and Newcastle is a massive +21. (npXGD is much closer but still a big gap). GD between these two teams for top 4 chase is meaningless though. Another team would have to pass both of them while they drew level on points. The chance of that happening is approximately 0%.

Where the high and low GD for these two teams actually does matter is if either slips up and draws level on points with the chasing teams. United is very likely to lose the GD battle there, and Newcastle is pretty likely to win it.

Likewise, for the three chasing teams GD relative to each other probably means nothing for the top 4 chase. It could easily matter for Europa though.
   360. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 05, 2023 at 07:09 PM (#6122773)
Thinking about the schedule a little more, it's probably too late to schedule the Newcastle/Brighton game until at least May 10, unless they schedule it very soon for the midweek spot 2 weeks from now. That means the game will likely be played in May after all. That also likely means Brighton will enter May having played just 31 games, with the ones they have played so far plus at Spurs, at Chelsea, at Forest, and home to Wolves. If they can take a decent haul from these 4 games they will still be in the race in May, considering they play so many games and both of United and Newcastle.
   361. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 05, 2023 at 08:08 PM (#6122786)
Twitter post notes the following: "If you have the better players there are worse ways to approach a game than to do whatever you can do to open things up. Everybody can have space, both sides. Let’s just see whose players can do the most with the space."

Few soccer games are actually played this way though, and even the better teams tend to play more conservatively than seems optimal. Personally I think some coaches of good teams are probably too conservative (notably Pep at City) but I'm definitely not totally sold on this idea. The main reason is that it's not so easy to just unilaterally decide to open things up. Teams playing defensively on the counter have an enormous advantage in soccer relative to their skill level, and this seems to still be true when the game is being played in a more open style. The better teams can't open things up too much without exposing themselves to too many chances in a way that is suboptimal relative to their better talent.

Where I think teams play too conservatively most is right when they get the ball back--they don't seem to often enough look really take a chance looking for the runners before the opposing defense is set. Attacking before the defense is set creates a huge advantage, but I think it also risks the ball coming right back the other way before your own team is set, which is precisely what the better teams are trying to prevent. I think it's a more complicated analysis than just "coaches hate to take risks".

A mediocre to weak team really can't seem to play a very open style and have any real success in top leagues. We saw Leeds try it under Bielsa and in my view teams, even the better teams, didn't take long to just look to counter Leeds on every possession--moving straight through their midfield and attacking their defensive line with tons of space. I think it became a suboptimal strategy against teams better and worse than them.
   362. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 05, 2023 at 08:47 PM (#6122793)
Couple odds this weekend we would not have expected to see even 2 or 3 weeks ago: Tottenham/Brighton is basically dead even despite being in London, which means Brighton is considered to be the "better" team right now. I use that term in quotes because maybe the manager situation is having a fairly large effect.

Arsenal is also favored at Liverpool. The last time that happened must have been close to a decade ago.
   363. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: April 05, 2023 at 09:07 PM (#6122797)
Few soccer games are actually played this way though, and even the better teams tend to play more conservatively than seems optimal.


Klopp, though, has made a whole career out of playing as though top-flight football were a video game. It becomes a problem when your squad starts aging, as it did at Dortmund toward the end, and as appears to have happened this year at Liverpool. But when he has the bodies it's awfully hard to beat.

A mediocre to weak team really can't seem to play a very open style and have any real success in top leagues. We saw Leeds try it under Bielsa and in my view teams, even the better teams, didn't take long to just look to counter Leeds on every possession--moving straight through their midfield and attacking their defensive line with tons of space.


Agreed. It has made them a hell of a lot of fun to watch, but it doesn't work unless you're able to exhaust your opponent physically.
   364. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: April 05, 2023 at 09:08 PM (#6122798)
Arsenal is also favored at Liverpool.


No they're not, shut up. Nobody is allowed to say things like this.
   365. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 07, 2023 at 09:58 AM (#6122989)
Luton only drew this morning. That means if Burnely beats Middlesbrough in a few hours they will have officially clinched promotion with 7 games to spare. It's been a forgone conclusion for weeks already. (Not that we would expect Burnley to win... Middlesbrough is one of the best Championship teams this year and is at home.)

Sheffield United has had a slightly tougher go of it, but they seem very likely to be the second team promoted. Middlesbrough and Luton are shoe-ins for the playoff, with the final slots likely to go to Millwall and Blcackburn. Lot left to play for there though, as a number of other teams could still nab a spot with a strong finish.

The other favorites coming in to the year: West Brom, Norwich, and Watford all have had pretty disappointing seasons relative to expectation as the other most recently relegated teams. All alive now for a playoff spot, but all needing to go on a run to finish off the season even to achieve that.
   366. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 07, 2023 at 10:30 AM (#6122997)
Monday morning Wrexham hosts Notts County in the battle of the two heavy weights. There is only one auto-promotion spot so the game is huge. A Wrexham win at home would likely all but clinch promotion for them, and pending results today a draw would take them most of the way there. Wrexham very much does not want to lose though.

What an unlucky year to be Notts County by the way (one of the only teams in the world actually older than Wrexham). This team is head and shoulders above the rest of the league, and yet likely will have to fight their way through a tough playoff to be promoted due to Wrexham having the hollywood funding.
   367. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 07, 2023 at 11:49 AM (#6123002)
I had temporarily forgotten that Chelsea is still alive in the CL. Makes firing Potter now just to hire Lampard some kind of insanity, IMHO.

edit: looks like bettors don't think much of it either. Chelsea's odds of advancing over Real Madrid went down a few percentage points, to 37%. Odds of winning the trophy also down at least a percentage point, to 6% now.
   368. jmurph Posted: April 07, 2023 at 11:55 AM (#6123004)
I had temporarily forgotten that Chelsea is still alive in the CL. Makes firing Potter now just to hire Lampard some kind of insanity, IMHO.

I expected them to get roasted by Madrid either way, but yeah, it's pretty crazy, and really only makes sense if they thought they were going to get Nagelsman or whomever in right away.
   369. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 07, 2023 at 11:59 AM (#6123005)
And Norwich had the big win over Blackburn on the road today. They might be close to even now with Blackburn for that final playoff spot. I'd much rather see a decent Norwich team in the playoff than this bad Blackburn one.

Few of the other chasing teams could take advantage.
   370. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 07, 2023 at 12:06 PM (#6123006)
Wrexham lost for just the third time this year. Now they are level with Notts County with a game in hand, going into the head-to-head Monday. Lose that one and they would be trailing in the race for auto promotion, in particular because they are now behind on GD and would fall further behind with a loss. That game is now bigger than ever.
   371. jmurph Posted: April 07, 2023 at 01:32 PM (#6123017)
Now there are reports that Chelsea will consider a return for Ancelotti if Madrid let him go.
   372. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 07, 2023 at 04:59 PM (#6123046)
Congratulations to Burnley! Back in the premier league already, with a new manager and new playing style. Should be interesting anyway.

They have pulled out result after result, including the game today. A very good team in any Championship year, but by most indications not as good as their record. Unless they can take it up another notch they should be one of the favorites to go back down, as most promoted teams are.

This year the three worst teams in the top flight are probably the three promoted ones, and yes that includes Fulham.

Still, it's been a very fun year for Burnley fans (that is, if there are any). Their ELO has soared due to all the results. They grade out (by ELO) as what would be a midtable EPL team, and around high 30s in the world. In fact, their rating and ranking by clubelo anyway are as high as they have been since the 1970s, and that includes those years where they somehow managed a top half finish in the EPL.

edit: also helps Sheffield Untied in two ways: Middlesbrough takes the loss, and Burnely will be hung over for their game against United on Monday.
   373. Richard Posted: April 07, 2023 at 05:05 PM (#6123047)
Burnley beat Middlesbrough and are promoted back to the PL at the first time of asking with 7 games to go. They’ve had a great season.

I was at Bramall Lane today and saw Sheffield United deservedly beat Wigan 1-0. Should have been more. 11 points from their last seven games will see them join Burnley.

The two teams meet on Easter Monday. Burnley have only lost twice this season in the league, and are 19 league games unbeaten. Their last defeat was 5-2 at Sheffield United in November.
   374. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 08, 2023 at 09:23 AM (#6123100)
Everton played one of the worst halves you will ever see in the first half. United's poor finishing had them only one goal up. Everton were much, much better in the second half, but made a defensive mistake and gave up a second goal.

In the final tally, United didn't suffer on the scoreboard as a result of going without Casemiro for 7 games, taking more points than predicted over those games and advancing in the FA cup. They didn't look good in some of those games, but mostly got the results. The biggest miss was actually dropping 2 points against Southampton because they had to play with 10 most of the game after Casemiro was sent off.

Is United truly deserving of a top 4 spot this year? The only teams you can really make an argument for being meaningfully ahead of them based on performance are City/Arsenal/Newcastle/Brighton. Newcastle is even with them in the table so that's neither here not there. It really comes down to whether you think Brighton's performance this year should have them as top 4 already or not. I think there is definitely an argument for it. Fortunately we also get to see Brighton play United twice coming up so should get some perspective there.

Looking at talent alone, United should be better than Brighton and Newcastle. But Liverpool and Chelsea should be better than United too, so that's a completely different conversation.
   375. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 08, 2023 at 09:55 AM (#6123102)
By xG, United has had three absolutely terrible games that are dragging down their overall xGD but haven't harmed them that much by xPoints and in the table: the three away losses to Newcastle, Liverpool, and Arsenal (combined over -8 xGD). No other top team this year (top 6 plus Brighton and Newcastle) of the table is close, except Liverpool is kind of close also with 3 very bad road games against Arsenal, City, and Chelsea (combined over -6.5 xGD). The last two of those Liverpool games were the last two games they played.

I'm in the camp that is firmly of the view that runaway scorelines and xG games should be regressed a bit, which is already expressed somewhat by a figure like xPoints (using penalty included xG as a base). Most ELO systems already do this using actual scoreline as a base. Winning close games is a skill to some extent, and playing to the scoreline is also a skill to some extent. Both often get washed out in the randomness of results but in the case of certain extreme examples (like Atleti at their peak) it becomes very evident there is something there.

We also saw something similar with Arsenal last year who had a few real stinkers against the top of the league at the beginning of the year, causing more traditional xG analysts to think of them as relative crap way too late in the season than was appropriate.

   376. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 08, 2023 at 10:14 AM (#6123104)
They flashed the expected win/loss/draw in-game "odds" very early in this Tottenham/Brighton game. Somehow they came up with 50% Tottenham, 28% draw and 22% Brighton win. I have no idea where those numbers came from. As noted above, coming into the game the teams were considered (for this particular game, with Tottenham's management issues) about even, despite Tottenham being at home (so Brighton significantly better). And the latest in-game odds show the same thing--no meaningful difference between the sides expected on this day.

Even the announcers thought those flashed odds seemed very generous to Tottenham.

edit: and then Son scores a gorgeous one. Edge Spurs now! (Current xG 0.02-0.57 to Brighton).
   377. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 08, 2023 at 10:24 AM (#6123106)
I personally hate the sleeve rule. Anything below the shoulder joint/deltoid muscle is a handling to me. I just wish they would call that consistently. We've seen balls way lower on the arm than the one with Mitoma just now called non-handballs earlier this year. In my view those other calls were the bad ones and this one today was correct.
   378. SoSH U at work Posted: April 08, 2023 at 10:30 AM (#6123107)
Toney with a terrible penalty off an undeniable Sven Botman foul in the box.
   379. SoSH U at work Posted: April 08, 2023 at 10:46 AM (#6123110)
Toney makes the second penalty, this one on a call a whole lot more debatable.
   380. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: April 08, 2023 at 10:48 AM (#6123111)
A complicated question, "deserving." If you look at how they've performed, eh, not any more or less than Brighton, Liverpool or even Spurs -- who, for all the sturm and drang, remain in fifth place and have a considerably better GD. You might put Brentford in that group, too.

If you look at their roster, well -- people talk about how bloated the Chelsea first team is. My last count was that they were carrying 31 players. United? They're carrying 40, and yet somehow they can't get good midfield play out of anybody other than Eriksen and Casimero and don't have a striker worth the name. They're not snakebit on the goalscoring front the way Chelsea has been, but their rosters aren't entirely dissimilar. Even Gea, once an earth-bestriding superstar, has looked pretty ordinary.

Which is to say, their roster does not exactly scream, "Better than Liverpool and Brighton and Brentford and Chelsea and Newcastle!" at the moment. They have a world-class winger and a lot of guys who seem like they should be better than they are.

(EDIT: I should acknowledge that Bruno Fernandes is still excellent, too.)

I think part of what's going on in the media, anyway, is that a lot of the people covering football right now remember the glory days of Ferguson and Wenger and really, really want the story of Arsenal's return to be the story of the return of the old rivalry. Every time Man U wins a couple of games in a row we hear about how they're "in form" (no joke, I heard someone describe them this way before the Newcastle match, at which point their last two league matches were an ugly draw against Southampton and the hilarious smackdown they took at Anfield). But they've never really been in form this year, and ten Hag & co are going to have some serious thinking to do over the summer if they want to have any hope of catching up with Arsenal and City. The old rivalry, such as it is, remains for bragging rights, not title shots, not yet.
   381. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 08, 2023 at 11:18 AM (#6123112)
There's no real way Brentford is in the top group by most measures, underlying or not. 538, ELO, non-pen xG, whatever, and certainly not by expectation. The one thing they have had is a massive edge in penalties (+6 now) which is making them look a tad better than they are.

I was saying that United had lesser talent than Liverpool and Chelsea right now, not the other way around. Pretty sure that's the general view. Betting odds have had United as worse going forward than both those teams the entire year. Maybe just now that has started to change with Chelsea losing their manager and being a basket case. I think few would say that the Brighton personnel is superior. Probably few would say that about Newcastle too, but there is an argument there at least.

I do think, in a more fair world, United is probably behind Brighton in the table now but ahead of Tottenham. Liverpool is a harder one.
   382. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 08, 2023 at 11:20 AM (#6123113)
Another handball against Brighton negating another goal. This one had to be called back I think as you can't score with your arm.

Tottenham is living quite the charmed life today.
   383. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 08, 2023 at 11:35 AM (#6123115)
Tottenham probably got away with one there. More a penalty than the one called on Newcastle at least. Paradigmatic example of how "clear and obvious" adds a layer of subjectivity.
   384. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 08, 2023 at 12:01 PM (#6123116)
Wow Spurs never should have won that game. Second best all day and benefitted from a number of calls on top of that which won't show up on the scoresheet. Also Brighton's chase for top 4 is on life support now, despite yet another well-played game.
   385. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 08, 2023 at 12:07 PM (#6123117)
Bournemouth had a huge away win against Leicester, which was also a huge blow for Leicester. That's a big shakeup at the bottom of the table. Leicester is now probably the third most likely team to be relegated.

Marsch rumored to be next manager? They need to do something fast.
   386. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 08, 2023 at 12:19 PM (#6123118)
Both disallowed goals were the correct decision, but I'm baffled at Brighton not getting that penalty decision.
   387. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 08, 2023 at 01:11 PM (#6123119)
On the Mitoma goal, they haven't been calling touches on the arm at that high as handballs. I think they should call them that way, but there has been a few examples where they haven't been.

This City team is super sleep-inducing when they play this way. It's almost impossible for me to watch.
   388. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 08, 2023 at 01:29 PM (#6123121)
The handball "t-shirt line" thing has arisen because they keep trying to do something about apparently unintentional defensive handballs in the box resulting in a forced harsh penalty call. One way they have tried to partly address the issue is by making the line between the part you cannot use and the rest of the body lowered beyond all reasonableness based on what an arm actually is. This line is supposed to apply to all things offensive and defensive, including where the offside line is drawn. Naturally, when offensive players use the upper part of the arm to control the ball it rightly looks against the spirit of the rules, so all the previous guidance is ignored and they call it a foul anyway.

It's a mess.
   389. SoSH U at work Posted: April 08, 2023 at 01:41 PM (#6123123)
Naturally, when offensive players use the upper part of the arm to control the ball it rightly looks against the spirit of the rules, so all the previous guidance is ignored and they call it a foul anyway.


That seemed to be the case with Newcastle's goal that was waved off.

I can't believe Villa is up to sixth in the table.
   390. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 08, 2023 at 01:55 PM (#6123126)
Villa has gone on a nice little run, taking 19 points from the last 7 games. Mostly against the bottom of the league, but it has put them back in the conversation for Europe next year. A notable point is that of their final remaining 8 games, 6 are against the teams immediately around them in then table: Newcastle, Brentford, United, Tottenham, Liverpool, Brighton. They completely control where they will end up. Win a couple key games and and probably they end up with Europa Conference. Win half and do ok in the rest and they could easily end up with Europa. Win almost all of those and they could even end up top 4. (ok, it won't happen, but still fun to think about.)

These teams are much harder than the ones they've been facing though, so the party probably ends now.
   391. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 08, 2023 at 02:02 PM (#6123128)
With this win City is back favorites again for the title (edit: maybe not quite, but at worst its back to right around exactly 50/50). This is one instance where I don't think the media is fully aware of how close this race really has been for weeks. Arsenal's lead in the table is offset almost exactly by their game in hand and talent deficit. It's been very exciting.
   392. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 08, 2023 at 07:27 PM (#6123148)
So the t-shirt had nothing to do with the rule apparently, and it's supposed to be the bottom of the armpit. "t-shirt" is very misleading, since all soccer players wear t-shirts that extend at least 2 inches below the bottom of the armpit, and in some cases probably more like 4-6 inches below. It's terrible terminology.

Probably one of the most blatant recent non-calls that was supposedly not given due to hitting high enough up on the arm was this one by Bournemouth against Arsenal.

The Mitoma call is probably right. If the premiere league does not want to call defensive handballs, they should find some other reason not to give them. This "high enough on the arm" thing is just becoming an embarrassment.
   393. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 08, 2023 at 08:06 PM (#6123152)
The disallowed Joelinton goal appeared to hit him first just above the wrist before then hitting his upper arm. So it's not really comparable. Also it's hard to be sure, but it appears to hit his upper arm even below the t-shirt line.
   394. SoSH U at work Posted: April 08, 2023 at 08:15 PM (#6123153)
The disallowed Joelinton goal appeared to hit him first just above the wrist before then hitting his upper arm. So it's not really comparable.


That wasn't the goal I was talking about. Wilson had one waved off today that was up near the shoulder.
   395. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 08, 2023 at 08:41 PM (#6123158)
ok yeah I wasn't watching Newcastle at that point anymore since they already had the lead and were very likely to win. Agree it could have been very similar--a bit hard to tell on the only angles I found online. Too far away or from the wrong side to really see. On the one angle from far away it looks like it could hit below the t-shirt line but it's hard to say for sure.
   396. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 08, 2023 at 09:12 PM (#6123161)
Seems to look lower than the one by Mitoma. Not lower than the one by Bournemouth against Arsenal though. Yes I realize that Bournemouth one was a defensive one but the point still stands. If they overturn this Wilson one they should have overturned the one by Bournemouth too.
   397. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: April 09, 2023 at 09:40 AM (#6123175)
The bottom of the table is so crowded that almost every match has some kind of relegation implications. Leeds is six spots clear of the relegation places, but only five points. Palace is a similar story and has been in absolutely brutal form since the firing of Vieira. (There's a sacking that didn't pan out.) So now they're playing each other with real ferocity in a match that looking at the table without seeing the points would imply might be lackadaisical.

Not sure I really love the feast-or-famine nature of the EPL on the whole, at the moment, but it does make for more meaningful football, ironically.
   398. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 09, 2023 at 10:05 AM (#6123177)
Palace has a win and a loss in the only two games they've played since Vieira was fired, and actually played well in both of them. The loss was away to Arsenal where Palace created a lot of chances and were beaten by some good finishing by Arsenal. Leicester is bad right now, but Palace crushed them in every way but on the scoreboard (and Palace still won, but just by a goal).

They looked poor to start the game today, but have come on and have now created more big chances than Leeds, and probably should be winning.

Palace's schedule is extremely easy for the rest of the year. They have almost no chance of going down.

None of this means they should have fired Vieira, because they probably would have been totally fine with him too.

A win today would put Leeds pretty much out of reach of going down. Even with a draw or loss they are not in bad shape. The group of 4 including Leeds, West Ham, Wolves, and Palace are all pretty to very unlikely to go down now, as all have won their last game and were in decent shape before. It's the other 5 teams that have a lot to worry about still.
   399. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 09, 2023 at 10:34 AM (#6123179)
Sheesh. What a capitulation by Leeds.

Announcers claiming that Crystal Palace did nothing in the first half until the goal at the end, but that's very misleading. Palace started turning it on about halfway through the first half, and since then have had all the shots and xG: 0.80-0.00 before the 23rd minute, 0.21-2.67 since. It's been extermely one sided for the last 50 minutes.

edit: and another wide open xG goal, so the information above is already out of date. After today Palace will be close to its highest 538 rating of the year, only potentially matched by what they had back in August.
   400. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 09, 2023 at 11:59 AM (#6123186)
Virgil van Dijk is so bad now.
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