Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, May 04, 2022
Bundesliga final day: May 14
Women’s UCL Final: May 21
Ligue Un final day: May 21
Serie A, Premier League, La Liga final day: May 22
Men’s UCL Final: May 28
Promotion! Relegation! European spots! Champions! It’s all to play for in May! Or, actually, just some of it is to play for but you know what I mean.
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Liverpool is at 64% to win the Champions League, whereas I think they would have been around 47% if City had advanced. That's a massive boost to their quadruple hopes, much bigger than what they got for their own win yesterday, which was virtually nothing since they were already something like 96% to advance.
Liverpool is 32% in the League and 63% in the FA cup. Something like 13% for the quadruple now, if you just multiply them all together.
EPL odds:
Forest and Huddersfield are in the playoff, but the last two spots are still open. Luton managed to lose 7-0 to Fulham, squandering their GD advantage over Millwall and leaving Millwall with still a prayer, though everything has to go their way. Middlesbrough just needs a win and a little luck and they are in. Sheffield United and Luton just have to win and they are in.
In the other leagues, Atleti and Leipzig still have a bit of work to do to clinch top 4, as they have not been taking care of business. Atleti plays Real Madrid this weekend, and maybe their opponents will still be hung over, so advantage Atleti there. Salernitana managed to draw Atalanta's hope for even a Europa spot, and making Salernitana almost 50/50 to stay up. Some big games this weekend in those leagues.
Lots of hand wringing over Atleti's poor play this year. I haven't watched them much, so maybe there is really something to it. xG does not agree though, and has them at a better than average year for Simeone's tenure. The one major difference, as mentioned earlier, is Oblak falling off a cliff, and deep into a chasm below the cliff. Almost the entire difference in their performance versus xG can be attributed to Oblka alone, if you believe GK stats anyway. That is, in every year where Oblak had good shot stopping stats Atleti outperformed xGA by a similar but slightly higher margin, and the same in reverse. Curious about this, I took a look at de Gea who had a very good year 4 years ago, followed by three very mediocre years, and this year another very good year. de Gea's shot-stopping performance did not dictate that of the team in the same way as happened for Atleti. In some years when he was very good the team didn't really outperform xGA as a whole, and in some years where he was average they did or underperformed significantly. There didn't seem to be much correlation once you subtracted out de Gea's own performance. Long story short, if Simeone leaves Atleti after this year as some are saying he might I think virtually any team that is ok playing a more defensive style should snatch him up. I'm not convinced the team this year is really significantly worse than his prior teams.
Pool was on the ropes the first half against Villareal, but had a really nice second half response.
And the Seattle Sounders FINALLY won the MLS a CONCACAF CL. I didn't watch the match, but it looks like a reasonably deserved win too. 3-0, 5-2 on aggregate, and they controlled the shots and shots on target.
Still can't believe the CL game yesterday. City must be in shock. Pulling for Liverpool, but I think they will have their hands full with Real. That team just keeps rises up out of the grave.
Leicester is down early, but it's still just one goal and they are full strength, so there's still a chance.
Rangers, unbelievably, are up 2-0 today and now up a goal on aggregate over Leipzig.
The other notable thing was the attendance - 68,741. That's a lot of people for a Wednesday night in Seattle...
They were the slight favorites against Braga going in. The first leg was a bit dour, but they absolutely walloped them in the return leg only through some miracle were they pushed to extra time. Overall another great performance.
They didn't actually play as well against Red Star, where I think they also slight favorites, but managed to squeeze through.
Then before that they outlasted Dortmund, where they again played extremely well only barely losing the xG battle to a far superior team that was heavily favored.
They were decent but not spectacular in the group stage.
Overall it's been quite the run. Betting odds have Rangers around 40% to win the trophy. Maybe slightly less. Coming into the KO rounds they were virtually no chance, and Frankfurt themselves were a serious longshot.
Luton is in with a win, and are given 65% at home over Reading. 21% for a draw which would be enough with a fair amount of luck.
Sheffield United in with a win, but are only given 47% at home versus Fulham. Another 26% for a draw which would likely be enough but not necessarily.
Middlesbrough with a little bit of luck are in with a win, and are given 58% away to Preston. A draw or worse and they are out.
Millwall needs a win and a ton of luck. They are also being given only 25% to win, away to Bournemouth.
Biggest match of the weekend is Liverpool hosting Spurs. It's no gimme for Liverpool, though they are being given almost 68% to win ouotright. 19% draw and 13% Spurs win. A draw is a killer for both teams, but probably moreso for Liverpool as it's hard to imagine City slipping up twice in 4 games (which they actually might need depending on what happens with GD if Liverpool draws) where it's a bit easier to imagine Arsenal doing that.
Or a quintuple, if they ever figure out when they're going to play the next Club World Cup (which, finally, an American team has qualified for with Seattle winning the CONCACAF title).
And now the Reading keeper did not know the Luton offensive player was behind him, and the keeper casually tossed the ball ahead of himself to prepare to boot it downfield. The Luton player's eyes lit up, and he ran around the keeper, took one dribble, and put it back in the net. I've seen a lot of keeper errors, but I can't ever remember seeing that one.
Southampton got smacked around by Brentford. That loss puts them in the tiniest bit of risk of relegation, despite already being on 40 points. They still have just Liverpool at home and Leicester away, and it would not be too surprising if they ended with the 40 they have now. Tt's very unlikely but not impossible that all 3 of Burnley, Everton, and Leeds will better that. Burnley and Everton would have the GD advantage too. Most likely not Leeds though.
ECL race isn't quite over either, as West Ham really should get it, but if they slip up tomorrow against Norwich they open the door to Wolves, and even Leicester, Brighton, and Palace.
Despite earning more than their median expected points for the game, Spurs odds for a top 4 spot will take a bit of a hit. There's just not enough games left in the season for draws when trailing in the standings. Liverpool's median expectation was over 2 points, so a draw hurts them a lot.
Everton is looking very likely to survive now, and things have sure changed in just a couple of games.
A big result in La Liga, as Sevilla is now virtually assured of a CL spot next year despite being pretty mediocre. For their part, after their great run in the CL this year, Villarreal has a pretty small shot at even Europa next year, and even the Europa Conference League is just 50/50. For Europa that head-to-head with Sociedad may be the deciding game.
Don't forget Liverpool has Southampton, who are always good for giving up a few goals.
Bayern started summer early and apparently even went to Ibiza. They lost last week and now have drawn Stuggart, giving them a point that keeps them alive for avoiding the relegation playoff and all but relegates Arminia.
Leipzig and Atleti are up next today. Both got huge breaks so far this weekend with virtually all their chasing teams losing. A win by either team today will put each very close to clinching it now.
But an even later goal deep in stoppage time off a corner, and it ends in a draw! It's going to come down to the last two games of the season now. Salernitana still has an advantage, but are far from safe now.
My son (who was not a good player by any stretch of the imagination) scored a goal just like that years ago in like maybe U12s. He made a back post run and his teammate tried to play him the ball. The goalie stepped up and cut the pass off. My son slowed his run and circled around and just as he was coming up behind the goalie the goalie dropped the ball down to kick it, right in my son's path. Similar to that play he took one touch to poke the ball away from the goalie and turned and shot the ball into the open net.
So that goalie shouldn't feel to bad. There was an 11 year old kid out there who made the same mistake once upon a time!
Now, one criticism the you sometimes hear about very good teams but not the best teams in their competitions, like Spurs are in the EPL, is that they should have better aspirations than playing that style. That's total bullshit when a team is the significant underdog. A more understandable criticism is it can be hard to build a team that is very good at playing defensive/counterattacking when they are the significantly weaker side, but at the same time is built for the 80% of games where they are the clear favorite. This seems intuitively true, but also seems like something a well-coached team with some flexibility in personnel should be able to handle reasonably well.
edit: also I'm not at all buying that Spurs were content with a draw in the game against Liverpool, especially considering the standings. I think they were playing in the way that gave them the best chance to actually win the game. The situation was such that playing a high tempo or rushing to get the ball back in play was not going to help them get a win (the longer the game were to have lasted, the more you would bet on Liverpool). They surely knew Liverpool really needed a win and would press for one leaving chances on the counter, including in the last 15 minutes when the game was level. And that's exactly what happened--Spurs just failed to connect on their very good chance late.
Winning by only 1 goal outs them squarely behind in the GD race now, so they'll probably need to put up a big number in at least one of their last two games (and get lucky with a City loss as well).
For relegation, Leeds' loss puts them that much closer to going down, and Everton likely only needs draws now to survive. Leeds/Burnley/Everton are at 59/35/6.
This season, though, has been deeply weird. Weirder than any I can remember. The club clearly isn't at the level of City and Liverpool, but there's talent there, and it's young talent. Lurching from losing streaks to winning streaks.
And just when it finally felt like it was all coming together, the worst 45 minutes they've played in a long time. I get it; the rivalry between Arsenal and Spurs is heated. But it seems like the Gunners have sacrificed any chance of winning in favor of trying to injure opposing players.
Blah.
I had to work so am missing the second half, but I guess it doesn't sound much like soccer.
I just gave up. Arsenal plays better when I don't watch. I know that's a ridiculous superstition, but it feels true.
Spurs beat Burnley
Newcastle draws Arsenal
Spurs draw to Norwich
Arsenal beats Everton
I, too, have 0 confidence Everton will show up on the last day, but I'm not really sure I trust Newcastle to get something.
Ironically, a Spurs win over Burnley makes it a bit less likely that Everton has anything to play for on the last weekend. With GD in Burnely's favor over Everton though, they might not be guaranteed to finish below Everton going into the last weekend, even if they lost to Spurs. It's more likely that Everton will be safe from Leeds.
edit: and if you want even more reason Everton might not be super focused a week from Sunday... both they and Burnley play Thursday evening, and it's not at all unlikely that Everton hits safety when the games end Thursday night. Might still be hungover Sunday. Still lots of ways this could shake out though, so you never know.
That red card for Venezia was an off the ball kick to the balls.
Looking for history, fan base, etc etc.
Newcastle has nothing to play for against Arsenal tomorrow but my guess is they will be a very difficult opponent at home. Everton on the road on the last day if they have clinched, especially if it was just two days earlier? I would guess not so much.
Arsenal is being given just 52% chance to win tomorrow--that's a minimal markdown, if any, for Newcastle. Spurs are being given 74% to win at home against the lesser opponent that has everything to play for. Both seem reasonable to me, though maybe that seems a tad high for a Spurs win here.
Betting odds have Arsenal as the tiniest favorite for top 4: 51.5/48.5.
A West Ham win today also more than likely puts United into the Europa Conference. A draw and United still have the edge over West Ham going into the last round.
edit: and all that talk of GD is now irrelevant. Chance of the title coming down to GD might be about 1%.
City's odds of winning the title are 89% or so. Seems a little high, so they be being given an 80% chance or more of beating Villa.
They don't have much history of success (or, really, any, as they've never even been in the 2nd tier, let alone been in the top flight), but my lower-level team is 5th-tier Torquay United. The Gulls. Kind of at random, but when my sone started playing FIFA on the Wii back in 2011 they were still in the FL and in FIFA. They play in a stadium called "Plainmoor" which is about as English a name for a ground as you can get. And hey, Torquay is the home town of Sir Roger Deakins (though, alas, he is a Man United supporter).
They *almost* were promoted to the FL last year, but lost the Conference playoff final on penalties after Torquay's keeper came up and scored at the end of regulation to send the game to extra time. Listening to the game on the radio, you'd have thought the home announcers had lost their minds when that happened. It was fun.
Latest odds:
I find it hard to believe City will drop any points against Villa, but then I suppose coming in to today I would have certainly bet they'd not drop points against West Ham. It's a funny ol' sport.
Next Sunday certainly is shaping up to be a heck of a day.
I used to have Sirius and did listen to that show; I had no idea he was from Torquay. When I read the history of The Replacements band "Trouble Boys" I was amused to read that Blade apparently broke a copy of Pleased to Meet Me on air because he thought they were boorish in an interview they did for KROQ. If the link works the excerpt is here.
I had forgotten about the whole Gerrard at Villa angle to the City-Villa match. That does make it a bit more interesting; I suppose Villa will give it more than the ol' college try to get something from the game. It would be a hell of a collapse for City to lose it, though.
Here's hoping maybe a Trippier free kick late gets Newcastle something from the game and helps Spurs...
edit: I see Newcastle has just the one shot, but they've had plenty of other dangerous possession in Arsenal's box.
This always seemed illegal to me, as I was taught in the reffing classes I had (when I was 12 or 13) that the ball had to be thrown equally with both arms directly over the head, which TAA assuredly does not do, and neither did the highschool GK. The rules as written anyway don't actually seem to disallow it though, hence the current debate.
I don't know why all players don't throw the ball like this if it is actually legal. It certainly can't be a new technique if some highschool shmoe could learn it on his own screwing around in practice.
Also don't feel bad for the backup GK. The much better keeper we had graduated so this guy got one full year as the starter.
Yeah, rooting for Team Dismemberment wasn't much fun, but from the MBM I read, it certainly seemed like they deserved the win.
I enjoyed it, as a fan of Team Dismemberment. That was probably the best game they've played all season.
Still, until the final whistle blows on Sunday, I will keep imagining new ways for Spurs to screw this up. They've been handed an absolute gift.
As a side note, though, Everton may well have all to play for on Sunday, and even though Everton have been awful, the team that played that game today can't be considered a lock to win over Everton (even if it is at home).
Why would you tug at my heart strings like that for a team that's not in the game? Now, whomever I choose, I will be disappointed that they aren't Torquay United!
#78's Nottingham Forrest is a good choice, and has been on my radar the past couple of years when I've thought about doing this. But mainly because I mixed up Robinhood's Sherwood Forest of Nottingham.
This got me thinking though that I actually answered this question for myself so I searched my email, and sure enough, the team I want to go with is AFC Wimbledon. Fan owned and created out of spite when Wimbledon FC moved and became Milton Keynes Dons. Their rivalry is intense and AFC even got in trouble for not using their full name on a scoreboard and program once (left off the don)
Shared grounds with Chelsea's Women's club is the icing on the cake.
But thanks for the help!
Yeah it's probably 50-50 or so that Everton will need something that day. A win seals (undeserved) survival but any other result and Sunday is Ye Olde Squeakye Bumme Time. I don't know how they could be as bad as they've been all season then get 10 points from a five game stretch against United, Leicester x2, Chelsea and Livepool immediately after losing to Burnley.
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