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Wednesday, May 04, 2022

OT Soccer Thread - Crowning Champions and Pro-Rel

Bundesliga final day: May 14
Women’s UCL Final: May 21
Ligue Un final day: May 21
Serie A, Premier League, La Liga final day: May 22
Men’s UCL Final: May 28

Promotion! Relegation! European spots! Champions! It’s all to play for in May! Or, actually, just some of it is to play for but you know what I mean.

The Marksist Posted: May 04, 2022 at 09:23 AM | 188 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off topic, soccer

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   1. Astroenteritis Posted: May 04, 2022 at 06:34 PM (#6075205)
I know I'm the only one who cares, but I'll say it, "C'mon Sunderland!" Please get out of League One...please.
   2. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 04, 2022 at 07:41 PM (#6075214)
I had my eye on those League One playoffs, but hadn't chosen a team to root for yet. Probably won't be pulling for Sunderland as they have the least interesting name of the bunch.

Liverpool is at 64% to win the Champions League, whereas I think they would have been around 47% if City had advanced. That's a massive boost to their quadruple hopes, much bigger than what they got for their own win yesterday, which was virtually nothing since they were already something like 96% to advance.

Liverpool is 32% in the League and 63% in the FA cup. Something like 13% for the quadruple now, if you just multiply them all together.

EPL odds:
winner
city        68
liverpool   32

top 4
chelsea     98
arsenal     68
tottenham   34

top 6
united      92.5
west ham     7
wolves       0.5

relegation
leeds       43.5
everton     31
burnley     25
southampton  1
brentford    0.5

   3. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 04, 2022 at 07:59 PM (#6075222)
Forest didn't do that much against Bournemouth, except that they had two absolutely gorgeous passes, but both were squandered. The second one led to what probably would have been a penalty on VAR (if they had been using VAR), but the offensive player really should have done more with the pass in the first place. Bournemouth turned it on in the second half and were deserving winners in the end, but it was touch and go for awhile. With that win, Bournemouth joins Fulham in the EPL next year. They were probably the two best teams in the Championship this year in the end as well.

Forest and Huddersfield are in the playoff, but the last two spots are still open. Luton managed to lose 7-0 to Fulham, squandering their GD advantage over Millwall and leaving Millwall with still a prayer, though everything has to go their way. Middlesbrough just needs a win and a little luck and they are in. Sheffield United and Luton just have to win and they are in.

In the other leagues, Atleti and Leipzig still have a bit of work to do to clinch top 4, as they have not been taking care of business. Atleti plays Real Madrid this weekend, and maybe their opponents will still be hung over, so advantage Atleti there. Salernitana managed to draw Atalanta's hope for even a Europa spot, and making Salernitana almost 50/50 to stay up. Some big games this weekend in those leagues.

Lots of hand wringing over Atleti's poor play this year. I haven't watched them much, so maybe there is really something to it. xG does not agree though, and has them at a better than average year for Simeone's tenure. The one major difference, as mentioned earlier, is Oblak falling off a cliff, and deep into a chasm below the cliff. Almost the entire difference in their performance versus xG can be attributed to Oblka alone, if you believe GK stats anyway. That is, in every year where Oblak had good shot stopping stats Atleti outperformed xGA by a similar but slightly higher margin, and the same in reverse. Curious about this, I took a look at de Gea who had a very good year 4 years ago, followed by three very mediocre years, and this year another very good year. de Gea's shot-stopping performance did not dictate that of the team in the same way as happened for Atleti. In some years when he was very good the team didn't really outperform xGA as a whole, and in some years where he was average they did or underperformed significantly. There didn't seem to be much correlation once you subtracted out de Gea's own performance. Long story short, if Simeone leaves Atleti after this year as some are saying he might I think virtually any team that is ok playing a more defensive style should snatch him up. I'm not convinced the team this year is really significantly worse than his prior teams.
   4. frannyzoo Posted: May 04, 2022 at 09:30 PM (#6075248)
This seems like the thread to pass along my wish that the Luton Hatters make (and win) the playoffs, regardless of how many thousand goals Fulham scored against them in Game 45. To see Kenilworth Road hosting City, United, 'Pool, etc. next year (I believe the new stadium is at least 2024, if not beyond) would be magnificent. Plus, EPL hasn't had a nice orange since the damned Blackpool year. Go Hatters.
   5. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: May 05, 2022 at 08:19 AM (#6075302)
That was something else yesterday. That is just a spectacular choke by City.
   6. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 05, 2022 at 08:31 AM (#6075305)
Everton going down would be a big story. Just a reminder though that betting odds had Leeds finishing ahead of Everton this year, and even 538 had them as even. Both were expected to be in the top half. Leicester has also notably underperformed. Yes United shat the bed, but both Spurs and Arsenal have both been quite a bit better than advertised, bringing respectability to the Top 4 race. Liverpool has really put it together especially over the last few months. Chelsea had a great start but has gone cold, so are not that far away overall from what was predicted.
pre-season         odds          538

Manchester City     87           81

Chelsea             78           73
Liverpool           77           74
Manchester United   74           68

Arsenal             62           60
Tottenham           60           60
Leicester City      59           57

Leeds United        54           50
Everton             53           50

West Ham United     50           52
Aston Villa         49           50
Brighton            46           51

Wolverhampton       43           46
Southampton         41           43
Crystal Palace      39           38
Burnley             39           41
Newcastle United    39           44
Brentford           38           38
 
Norwich City        35           37
Watford             34           36
   7. spivey Posted: May 05, 2022 at 09:20 AM (#6075315)
On the one hand, a choke by City... but also, they just didn't dominate the match or the tie. It probably didn't change the tie and is just a footnote, but good lord Casemiro gets away without bookings way, way too much. City's defense I also think is pretty vulnerable without Kyle Walker - they just don't have a lot of steel. Madrid, even if they're under their traditional standard of one of the best 2 teams in the world, are still very, very good.

Pool was on the ropes the first half against Villareal, but had a really nice second half response.

And the Seattle Sounders FINALLY won the MLS a CONCACAF CL. I didn't watch the match, but it looks like a reasonably deserved win too. 3-0, 5-2 on aggregate, and they controlled the shots and shots on target.
   8. Astroenteritis Posted: May 05, 2022 at 11:38 AM (#6075343)
Yes, Seattle played very well, and were the better team on the night. Maybe MLS is making a bit much of the win, but it certainly has some significance. It will be weird (and nice) to see an MLS team at the World Club Cup.

Still can't believe the CL game yesterday. City must be in shock. Pulling for Liverpool, but I think they will have their hands full with Real. That team just keeps rises up out of the grave.

   9. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 05, 2022 at 02:40 PM (#6075364)
Another win for Salernitana. Out of the bottom 3 all of a sudden. Arguably the last time they had odds this high of surviving was before the season started. Certainly by the end of September they were already more than 50/50 for the drop (1 point from their first 6 games). If they can win the next one over their main competition now, Caligari on Sunday, they will very likely survive. Their last two games are against mediocre teams with nothing to play for: Empoli and Udinese.
   10. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 05, 2022 at 03:20 PM (#6075375)
Cresswell off for DOGSO. Given after VAR review when it was originally a yellow. That's probably it for West Ham's hopes. oops. It was the right call, too.
   11. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 05, 2022 at 03:31 PM (#6075378)
West Ham now down a man and 2 goals on aggregate. Stick a fork in them.

Leicester is down early, but it's still just one goal and they are full strength, so there's still a chance.

Rangers, unbelievably, are up 2-0 today and now up a goal on aggregate over Leipzig.
   12. vortex of dissipation Posted: May 05, 2022 at 03:38 PM (#6075383)
And the Seattle Sounders FINALLY won the MLS a CONCACAF CL. I didn't watch the match, but it looks like a reasonably deserved win too. 3-0, 5-2 on aggregate, and they controlled the shots and shots on target.


The other notable thing was the attendance - 68,741. That's a lot of people for a Wednesday night in Seattle...
   13. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 05, 2022 at 05:04 PM (#6075407)
Rangers held on for the surprise upset! For all their dominance the EPL only gets one out of 6 finalists in the three tournaments. No country got as many as two teams, so we have an array of countries in the finals. England, Spain, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and Scotland. France and Portugal are clearly better than Scotland, but no other league that missed out is any more. Russia used to be, and Austria maybe is now.
   14. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: May 05, 2022 at 07:36 PM (#6075432)
Once Frankfurt scored I flipped to the Rangers-Leipzig game. There were moments of backs-against-the-wall defending, but for the most part Rangers came to play, even when they were ahead in the tie. It was an impressive display against a team that is at worst the 3rd-best team in Germany.
   15. Astroenteritis Posted: May 06, 2022 at 09:54 AM (#6075500)
Even though I'm partial to Celtic, I've been very impressed with Rangers Europa League campaign. They have come up with the big performances when needed, and winning the trophy would be a very fine accomplishment.
   16. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 06, 2022 at 10:11 AM (#6075503)
Rangers absolutely held their own against Leipzig, only slightly lost out on the aggregate xG battle against a far better team that was heavily favored to beat them. That's a great accomplishment.

They were the slight favorites against Braga going in. The first leg was a bit dour, but they absolutely walloped them in the return leg only through some miracle were they pushed to extra time. Overall another great performance.

They didn't actually play as well against Red Star, where I think they also slight favorites, but managed to squeeze through.

Then before that they outlasted Dortmund, where they again played extremely well only barely losing the xG battle to a far superior team that was heavily favored.

They were decent but not spectacular in the group stage.

Overall it's been quite the run. Betting odds have Rangers around 40% to win the trophy. Maybe slightly less. Coming into the KO rounds they were virtually no chance, and Frankfurt themselves were a serious longshot.
   17. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 06, 2022 at 10:36 AM (#6075509)
Always hard to know how to handicap these games on the last day of the season where one team has something to play for and the other does not. Nevertheless...

Luton is in with a win, and are given 65% at home over Reading. 21% for a draw which would be enough with a fair amount of luck.
Sheffield United in with a win, but are only given 47% at home versus Fulham. Another 26% for a draw which would likely be enough but not necessarily.
Middlesbrough with a little bit of luck are in with a win, and are given 58% away to Preston. A draw or worse and they are out.
Millwall needs a win and a ton of luck. They are also being given only 25% to win, away to Bournemouth.

Biggest match of the weekend is Liverpool hosting Spurs. It's no gimme for Liverpool, though they are being given almost 68% to win ouotright. 19% draw and 13% Spurs win. A draw is a killer for both teams, but probably moreso for Liverpool as it's hard to imagine City slipping up twice in 4 games (which they actually might need depending on what happens with GD if Liverpool draws) where it's a bit easier to imagine Arsenal doing that.
   18. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: May 06, 2022 at 03:31 PM (#6075564)
Something like 13% for the quadruple [for Liverpool] now

Or a quintuple, if they ever figure out when they're going to play the next Club World Cup (which, finally, an American team has qualified for with Seattle winning the CONCACAF title).
   19. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: May 07, 2022 at 03:41 AM (#6075638)
The club world cup would be part of next season's campaign. They would have had to win the one in February, for it to count towards a quintuple.
   20. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 07, 2022 at 08:23 AM (#6075640)
Sheffield United is already up 3-0 on Fulham, so it looks like they will have a playoff spot. Middlesbrough have put themselves in a deep hole down to Preston. Millwall still scoreless.

And now the Reading keeper did not know the Luton offensive player was behind him, and the keeper casually tossed the ball ahead of himself to prepare to boot it downfield. The Luton player's eyes lit up, and he ran around the keeper, took one dribble, and put it back in the net. I've seen a lot of keeper errors, but I can't ever remember seeing that one.
   21. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 07, 2022 at 08:25 AM (#6075641)
   22. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 07, 2022 at 08:28 AM (#6075642)
Unless Forest scores, they will have Sheffield United, and Huddersfield will have Luton.
   23. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 07, 2022 at 09:38 AM (#6075643)
Forest did score in extra time, but they gave it back up even later in extra time. So they face Sheffield United. The winner of that matchup should be the favorite against the Huddersfield/Luton matchup.
   24. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 07, 2022 at 11:58 AM (#6075649)
Wolves absolutely took it to Chelsea in the last 20 minutes of the game after going down 2-0, and got the equalizer on the very last kick of the game. With that goal, Chelse still hasn't wrapped up a CL spot.

Southampton got smacked around by Brentford. That loss puts them in the tiniest bit of risk of relegation, despite already being on 40 points. They still have just Liverpool at home and Leicester away, and it would not be too surprising if they ended with the 40 they have now. Tt's very unlikely but not impossible that all 3 of Burnley, Everton, and Leeds will better that. Burnley and Everton would have the GD advantage too. Most likely not Leeds though.
   25. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 07, 2022 at 01:20 PM (#6075658)
Bristol got the auto-promotion spot from League 2 by beating Scunthorpe 7-0, and they needed every single one of the goals as they ended level with Northampton on points and GD. Northampton won 1-3. Bristol made up a deficit of 6 GD in the last 46 minutes of the season.
   26. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 07, 2022 at 02:39 PM (#6075660)
After that distinguished loss, 538 has United ranked as 9th best in the EPL, after Brighton, Villa, and Palace, and not far ahead of Brentford. They also aren't a lock yet for Europa, but are still very likely to get it.

ECL race isn't quite over either, as West Ham really should get it, but if they slip up tomorrow against Norwich they open the door to Wolves, and even Leicester, Brighton, and Palace.
   27. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 07, 2022 at 04:46 PM (#6075675)
An away draw to Liverpool was a better than average result for Spurs. They played well and kept themselves in the game, but these are exactly the games that Liverpool has been winning this year. On another day Liverpool probably wins it.

Despite earning more than their median expected points for the game, Spurs odds for a top 4 spot will take a bit of a hit. There's just not enough games left in the season for draws when trailing in the standings. Liverpool's median expectation was over 2 points, so a draw hurts them a lot.

   28. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: May 07, 2022 at 07:59 PM (#6075702)
Yeah, the classic bad result for both teams.
   29. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 08, 2022 at 09:28 AM (#6075754)
Total disaster for Leeds. Meslier made a mistake to give a freebie to Arsenal, then Arsenal absolutely dominated to get another goal, and now Ayling with a completely unnecessary horror tackle is sent off on VAR. Leeds reeling down by 2 and a man.
   30. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: May 08, 2022 at 09:30 AM (#6075755)
Could be worse. Raphinha could have genuinely picked up two yellow cards there for persistent protesting.
   31. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 08, 2022 at 09:42 AM (#6075757)
It seems West Ham has come to play today against Norwich, and now they are very close to an ECL spot. Only Wolves can catch them, but realistically their schedule is too difficult. More interestingly, they keep the pressure on United for the last Europa spot. West Ham could drop all the points next week at home against City and still take 6th if they beat Brighton away (won't be easy) and United loses to Palace away (which seems quite conceivable at the moment).
   32. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 08, 2022 at 09:57 AM (#6075760)
United will only get to 61 points if they if they beat Palace away, which might not even be a 50/50 proposition--maybe only near 50/50 if Palace aren't super motivated on the last day of the season with nothing to play for. If they only manage a draw, the 59 points will be tied for the lowest 6th place total since Liverpool in 2010-2011. If they lose and West Ham can't get more than 58, it will be tied for the lowest since Villa and Newcastle had 56 points in 2003-2004.
   33. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 08, 2022 at 09:59 AM (#6075761)
Still no shots for Leeds.
   34. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 08, 2022 at 10:27 AM (#6075763)
One shot, and one goal for Leeds. Game on!
   35. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 08, 2022 at 11:00 AM (#6075765)
Arsenal seemed to get quite nervous after Leeds scored on their one chance, but held on unsurprisingly despite a couple half chances by Leeds. Everton held on as well with a couple very good saves.

Everton is looking very likely to survive now, and things have sure changed in just a couple of games.
   36. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 08, 2022 at 12:14 PM (#6075770)
Smash and grab by Sevilla. Battered by Villarreal for 90 minutes, they finally gave up the lead in the 8th minute. On the last kick of the game, a corner with the keeper up, they managed to put in a ball that was bouncing around in the 6-yard box, for the 1-1 draw.

A big result in La Liga, as Sevilla is now virtually assured of a CL spot next year despite being pretty mediocre. For their part, after their great run in the CL this year, Villarreal has a pretty small shot at even Europa next year, and even the Europa Conference League is just 50/50. For Europa that head-to-head with Sociedad may be the deciding game.
   37. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: May 08, 2022 at 12:21 PM (#6075771)
On the one hand I'm glad Everton are going to survive but man, something has to change. This is a team that should enter season with an expectation of a top 7 finish and the hope of top four if things really pan out. At this point they are just content to run around and exist.
   38. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 08, 2022 at 12:31 PM (#6075773)
EPL odds:
winner
city        87
liverpool   13

top 4
chelsea     98
arsenal     76
tottenham   26

top 6
united      81
west ham    18.5
wolves       0.5

relegation
leeds       48
burnley     43
everton      8
southampton  1
   39. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 08, 2022 at 12:43 PM (#6075777)
I was pretty sure that in the off chance City and Liverpool finished level on points, Liverpool would have the better GD. That's far from certain now, but even though City leads GD in the live standings, they are effectively still behind in a scenario where the teams would end up level. For that to happen, they'd have to lose one of their last three while Liverpool wins out. (Or drop points in 2 out of their last 3, which is very unlikely now, while Liverpool also drops points). A loss coupled by a Liverpool win is at minimum a 2 goal swing--realistically likely to be 3 or even more. Thus if City wants to get ahead in the GD race they still need at least 2 more goals today.
   40. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 08, 2022 at 01:25 PM (#6075781)
Well now it's advantage City on GD. Just slightly though--maybe by a goal or at most two. Even if both teams win their next two games Liverpool will still go into the last weekend thinking they at least have a chance if they put up a few goals and City gets upset by Villa away.

Don't forget Liverpool has Southampton, who are always good for giving up a few goals.
   41. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 08, 2022 at 01:36 PM (#6075783)
Salenitana gets a penalty to take the lead in the second half in a critical relegation 6-pointer. Hold on to this lead and they are in great shape. In the post-penalty scuffle Ribery got sent off for Salernitana, but luckily he wasn't one of the 11 currently playing so Salernitana stays at full strength.

Bayern started summer early and apparently even went to Ibiza. They lost last week and now have drawn Stuggart, giving them a point that keeps them alive for avoiding the relegation playoff and all but relegates Arminia.

Leipzig and Atleti are up next today. Both got huge breaks so far this weekend with virtually all their chasing teams losing. A win by either team today will put each very close to clinching it now.
   42. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 08, 2022 at 01:39 PM (#6075784)
All those goals for City has sent Liverpool's odds down another percent, to about 12% now. Quadruple odds down to around 5% again.
   43. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 08, 2022 at 01:59 PM (#6075787)
Very late penalty to Cagliari overruled on VAR on a close, close play, as the keeper was judged to have possession when the offensive player nicked it out of his grasp with the slightest of touches, prior to the keeper pulling him down.

But an even later goal deep in stoppage time off a corner, and it ends in a draw! It's going to come down to the last two games of the season now. Salernitana still has an advantage, but are far from safe now.
   44. Pirate Joe Posted: May 08, 2022 at 09:04 PM (#6075825)
And now the Reading keeper did not know the Luton offensive player was behind him, and the keeper casually tossed the ball ahead of himself to prepare to boot it downfield. The Luton player's eyes lit up, and he ran around the keeper, took one dribble, and put it back in the net. I've seen a lot of keeper errors, but I can't ever remember seeing that one.



My son (who was not a good player by any stretch of the imagination) scored a goal just like that years ago in like maybe U12s. He made a back post run and his teammate tried to play him the ball. The goalie stepped up and cut the pass off. My son slowed his run and circled around and just as he was coming up behind the goalie the goalie dropped the ball down to kick it, right in my son's path. Similar to that play he took one touch to poke the ball away from the goalie and turned and shot the ball into the open net.

So that goalie shouldn't feel to bad. There was an 11 year old kid out there who made the same mistake once upon a time!
   45. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 09, 2022 at 01:42 PM (#6075883)
Spurs gameplan was great against Liverpool, and they performed it reasonably well. It's also the best strategy for any team significantly weaker than their opposition especially playing on the road and especially with a high quality counterattackers. Klopp complaining about it is absurd.

Now, one criticism the you sometimes hear about very good teams but not the best teams in their competitions, like Spurs are in the EPL, is that they should have better aspirations than playing that style. That's total bullshit when a team is the significant underdog. A more understandable criticism is it can be hard to build a team that is very good at playing defensive/counterattacking when they are the significantly weaker side, but at the same time is built for the 80% of games where they are the clear favorite. This seems intuitively true, but also seems like something a well-coached team with some flexibility in personnel should be able to handle reasonably well.

edit: also I'm not at all buying that Spurs were content with a draw in the game against Liverpool, especially considering the standings. I think they were playing in the way that gave them the best chance to actually win the game. The situation was such that playing a high tempo or rushing to get the ball back in play was not going to help them get a win (the longer the game were to have lasted, the more you would bet on Liverpool). They surely knew Liverpool really needed a win and would press for one leaving chances on the counter, including in the last 15 minutes when the game was level. And that's exactly what happened--Spurs just failed to connect on their very good chance late.
   46. Mefisto Posted: May 09, 2022 at 03:18 PM (#6075904)
Miles Robinson out with an Achilles tendon tear.
   47. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 09, 2022 at 04:46 PM (#6075924)
Sunderland apparently played well for most of the game, but the only parts I saw were after Wednesday had drawn level. In that part of the game they were definitely reeling a bit. Against the run of play they put one in in extra time. They now have Wycombe for a return to the Championship.
   48. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 10, 2022 at 03:50 PM (#6076097)
Villa gave Liverpool as good as they got in the first half, and it's 1-1. If Liverpool fails to win today it's likely City will wrap it up before Liverpool plays again next week.
   49. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 10, 2022 at 04:54 PM (#6076108)
Liverpool was very lucky to win that game. That was the worst defensive performance I've seen from them in a long time, certainly in 2021, and that includes all the CL games. They had their chances on the other end and the game could have gone either way, but a draw would have been a much fairer result.

Winning by only 1 goal outs them squarely behind in the GD race now, so they'll probably need to put up a big number in at least one of their last two games (and get lucky with a City loss as well).
   50. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 10, 2022 at 05:08 PM (#6076110)
Liverpool's odds only went up from 12% to 14% despite winning the hardest game left on their schedule. That's because what they really need is City to lose, and now they also needed to score goals.
   51. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 11, 2022 at 03:48 PM (#6076300)
Leeds is going to red card their way right out of the EPL.
   52. The Marksist Posted: May 11, 2022 at 04:56 PM (#6076319)
Haven't been watching, but apparently Kevin De Bruyne happened today.
   53. Mefisto Posted: May 11, 2022 at 05:14 PM (#6076325)
He was pretty spectacular. 4 goals and another shot hit the post.
   54. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 11, 2022 at 05:19 PM (#6076327)
Liverpool is still alive for the title, but their hopes are very small now. City has poured on the goals when it mattered, and Liverpool will need to put up a big number against Southampton to have any chance. 6% for the title now. For their part, Southampton has effectively survived because there is almost no chance Leeds can catch them now.

For relegation, Leeds' loss puts them that much closer to going down, and Everton likely only needs draws now to survive. Leeds/Burnley/Everton are at 59/35/6.
   55. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 12, 2022 at 02:44 PM (#6076456)
Betting odds for this one are 43/28/29 Win/draw/lose for Spurs. That implies the teams are expected to b e very close in strength, with Spurs having the home field advantage and Arsenal happy with a draw. (Draw odds are higher than normal and win odds, especially for the away team here, are a little lower than normal for two evenly matched teams.)
   56. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: May 12, 2022 at 02:58 PM (#6076459)
How long till we see a red card? These clubs do not like each other.
   57. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: May 12, 2022 at 03:10 PM (#6076462)
. . . and I go do the bathroom and miss the first goal.
   58. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: May 12, 2022 at 03:18 PM (#6076463)
It took 32 minutes to get that red card.
   59. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 12, 2022 at 03:22 PM (#6076465)
Disastrous first half for Arsenal in a game where neither team has done much except for earn fouls.
   60. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: May 12, 2022 at 03:48 PM (#6076473)
I've been a Gunners fan for 20+ years. The last few have been pretty depressing, acknowledging, of course, that I was really very lucky for a long time that I'd sort of randomly chosen a team that was always in the thick of things for the first 15 years of my fandom.

This season, though, has been deeply weird. Weirder than any I can remember. The club clearly isn't at the level of City and Liverpool, but there's talent there, and it's young talent. Lurching from losing streaks to winning streaks.

And just when it finally felt like it was all coming together, the worst 45 minutes they've played in a long time. I get it; the rivalry between Arsenal and Spurs is heated. But it seems like the Gunners have sacrificed any chance of winning in favor of trying to injure opposing players.

Blah.
   61. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 12, 2022 at 04:18 PM (#6076479)
That was a very soft penalty call to get it all started, and while the two fouls against Holding were both deserving of yellows, neither was necessary to keep Spurs from getting a big opportunity. Just a couple bad individual mistakes by him. Before that neither side had done much, and after that the game was basically over. I wouldn't really say Arsenal played that badly, or Spurs played that well, before the sending off, which was in the 33rd minute.

I had to work so am missing the second half, but I guess it doesn't sound much like soccer.
   62. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: May 12, 2022 at 04:25 PM (#6076480)
There was a lot of chirping and wrestling before Holding got sent off. I think a foul-heavy game was going to be inevitable.

I just gave up. Arsenal plays better when I don't watch. I know that's a ridiculous superstition, but it feels true.
   63. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 12, 2022 at 04:59 PM (#6076485)
It's very close to 50/50 now for the last spot. Arsenal has the 0.5 point lead (due to GD disadvantage), but the harder schedule. It's likely to be largely decided on Sunday. There's a pretty strong chance Everton will have nothing to play for on the final weekend of the season, away to Arsenal, and Spurs have Norwich (though it is away to Norwich). This weekend Spurs have Burnley, who will be biting and scratching for a point, and Arsenal have a pretty decent Newcastle.
   64. Textbook Editor Posted: May 13, 2022 at 12:19 PM (#6076545)
The Spurs-y way to end the season would be:

Spurs beat Burnley
Newcastle draws Arsenal
Spurs draw to Norwich
Arsenal beats Everton

I, too, have 0 confidence Everton will show up on the last day, but I'm not really sure I trust Newcastle to get something.
   65. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 13, 2022 at 12:49 PM (#6076547)
The Newcastle game against Arsenal is on Monday, so (contrary to my post above) it definitely won't be decided Sunday.

Ironically, a Spurs win over Burnley makes it a bit less likely that Everton has anything to play for on the last weekend. With GD in Burnely's favor over Everton though, they might not be guaranteed to finish below Everton going into the last weekend, even if they lost to Spurs. It's more likely that Everton will be safe from Leeds.

edit: and if you want even more reason Everton might not be super focused a week from Sunday... both they and Burnley play Thursday evening, and it's not at all unlikely that Everton hits safety when the games end Thursday night. Might still be hungover Sunday. Still lots of ways this could shake out though, so you never know.
   66. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 14, 2022 at 10:53 AM (#6076697)
The Salernitana adventure continues. They've had so, so many chances today, finally drawing level late and an even later penalty goes their way but its saved. Finishes a draw so it's very much touch and go for them with Genoa and Cagliari right on their tail.
   67. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 14, 2022 at 11:10 AM (#6076699)
It's the last day of the Bundesliga season, and relegation bound Arminia has taken the lead against Leipzig, in a game where Leipzig only needs a draw to get the last CL spot. Sadly, Freiburg is also losing. Leipzig is about to back into the spot after all.
   68. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 14, 2022 at 11:35 AM (#6076704)
Hertha gave up 2 second half goals to lose to Dortmund after taking the lead early, while Stuttgart poured it on all game and got their reward in extra time. That goal allows Stuttgart to survive and sends Hertha to the playoff.
   69. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 14, 2022 at 11:58 AM (#6076708)
Late goal by Sheffield United to avoid the 0-2 loss at home. Still, Sheffield United will have to win in Forest to advance now. The goal gives them a chance though. No team has come back from a 2-goal deficit after the first leg to win the playoffs in the second round. Sheffield United will have to match what Derby did to Leeds a couple years ago, the only time a team that lost the first game at home came back to win. Losing the first game away by a single goal has not been a killer, but losing the first one at home is another matter.
   70. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 14, 2022 at 04:49 PM (#6076721)
Roma couldn't beat 10-man relegation bound Venezia, at home no less. They better win the ECL or they are likely to miss out on Europe entirely next year.
   71. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 14, 2022 at 05:06 PM (#6076723)
Nice was handed a 2-point penalty (1 point suspended) way back in September. 538 still doesn't know about it. It's a critical point for Europa qualification, so it would have been nice if they could get it right.
   72. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: May 14, 2022 at 05:33 PM (#6076725)
I see what you did there.
   73. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 14, 2022 at 06:23 PM (#6076729)
Heh. Wish I had noticed that I would have made it slightly more clever.

That red card for Venezia was an off the ball kick to the balls.
   74. KronicFatigue Posted: May 14, 2022 at 08:46 PM (#6076734)
Who is the best worst English team to root for? I want to start following the lower leagues, but I also am about to start a new FIFA career mode (game was free this month, so I'm unretiring). I have always played as Chelsea and after a few seasons I become too dominant and it becomes too boring. So I want to take a really low team and work my way up.

Looking for history, fan base, etc etc.
   75. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: May 14, 2022 at 08:54 PM (#6076737)
It's definitely still advantage Arsenal but both these teams are so inconsistent that any combination of results is possible. I don't even consider the typical 'nothing to play for' saying that relevant when these two teams are involved - Brighton and Brentford already had 'nothing to play for' when Spurs couldn't manage a single shot on target against either of them.
   76. spivey Posted: May 14, 2022 at 11:58 PM (#6076776)
Agree with 75. Plus Everton has a bunch of guys playing for their next contract/team.
   77. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 15, 2022 at 12:58 AM (#6076779)
There's different kinds of "nothing to play for". At home v away, last game of the season v several games left, two days after you just avoided relegation v have been safe for awhile.

Newcastle has nothing to play for against Arsenal tomorrow but my guess is they will be a very difficult opponent at home. Everton on the road on the last day if they have clinched, especially if it was just two days earlier? I would guess not so much.

Arsenal is being given just 52% chance to win tomorrow--that's a minimal markdown, if any, for Newcastle. Spurs are being given 74% to win at home against the lesser opponent that has everything to play for. Both seem reasonable to me, though maybe that seems a tad high for a Spurs win here.

Betting odds have Arsenal as the tiniest favorite for top 4: 51.5/48.5.
   78. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: May 15, 2022 at 08:24 AM (#6076783)
#74 Depends how 'bad' exactly you are looking for. But my first recommendation, given your stated parameters, would be Nottingham Forrest. 2 European cups (forerunner to the Champions League), a league title, and 2 FA cups. Not been in the Premier league since '99.
   79. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: May 15, 2022 at 09:25 AM (#6076788)
City go behind!
   80. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 15, 2022 at 09:58 AM (#6076789)
Well. Liverpool is still alive! Even City wouldn't be expected to turn this one around for a win now. If they can't manage at least a draw, it would likely come down to GD after all.

A West Ham win today also more than likely puts United into the Europa Conference. A draw and United still have the edge over West Ham going into the last round.
   81. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 15, 2022 at 11:09 AM (#6076792)
Leeds played pretty well, considering how bad they've been. A draw is just barely treading water though for them. Burnley still has the game in hand and the GD, so Leeds is still odds on to go down. An Everton win today and they survive. Draw or loss and they'll have to play for it again Thursday.

edit: and all that talk of GD is now irrelevant. Chance of the title coming down to GD might be about 1%.

City's odds of winning the title are 89% or so. Seems a little high, so they be being given an 80% chance or more of beating Villa.
   82. Textbook Editor Posted: May 15, 2022 at 11:36 AM (#6076794)
Who is the best worst English team to root for? I want to start following the lower leagues, but I also am about to start a new FIFA career mode (game was free this month, so I'm unretiring). I have always played as Chelsea and after a few seasons I become too dominant and it becomes too boring. So I want to take a really low team and work my way up.

Looking for history, fan base, etc etc.


They don't have much history of success (or, really, any, as they've never even been in the 2nd tier, let alone been in the top flight), but my lower-level team is 5th-tier Torquay United. The Gulls. Kind of at random, but when my sone started playing FIFA on the Wii back in 2011 they were still in the FL and in FIFA. They play in a stadium called "Plainmoor" which is about as English a name for a ground as you can get. And hey, Torquay is the home town of Sir Roger Deakins (though, alas, he is a Man United supporter).

They *almost* were promoted to the FL last year, but lost the Conference playoff final on penalties after Torquay's keeper came up and scored at the end of regulation to send the game to extra time. Listening to the game on the radio, you'd have thought the home announcers had lost their minds when that happened. It was fun.

   83. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 15, 2022 at 01:59 PM (#6076805)
Did Everton finish the game with nine men on the field?!

Latest odds:
winner
city       89
liverpool  11

top 4
tottenham  55
arsenal    45   (still to play tomorrow)

top 6
united     81
west ham   19

relegation
leeds      55
burnley    35
everton    10
   84. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 15, 2022 at 03:13 PM (#6076812)
Villarreal had the lead in a critical games against Sociedad for a Europa League spot. Now trailing, they are at serious risk of falling completely out of a Europe spot. They'd be the best team that didn't qualify for a spot in Europe. Second best maybe Atalanta or Roma, or maybe even an EPL team like Leicester, Brighton, or Villa, or Athletic Bilbao if Villarreal sneaks in at their expense. Or Lyon in this off year.
   85. Textbook Editor Posted: May 15, 2022 at 03:58 PM (#6076815)
So I suppose anything other than a win this week gives Everton something to play for against Arsenal next Sunday. The flip side is that should they win, I cannot imagine Arsenal dropping points against a safe Everton.

I find it hard to believe City will drop any points against Villa, but then I suppose coming in to today I would have certainly bet they'd not drop points against West Ham. It's a funny ol' sport.

Next Sunday certainly is shaping up to be a heck of a day.
   86. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 15, 2022 at 05:20 PM (#6076837)
Chelsea hasn't technically clinched a top 4 spot yet, but there isn't much risk at the moment. Even if Arsenal wins tomorrow, Chelsea's odds will still be well over 99.5%. It won't get at all interesting unless Chelsea also loses to Leicester on Thursday.
   87. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: May 15, 2022 at 05:53 PM (#6076851)
TE if you are a listener of FirstWave of SiriusXM DJ Richard Blade (formerly of KROQ) is also from Torquay.
   88. Textbook Editor Posted: May 16, 2022 at 02:43 PM (#6077003)
TE if you are a listener of FirstWave of SiriusXM DJ Richard Blade (formerly of KROQ) is also from Torquay.


I used to have Sirius and did listen to that show; I had no idea he was from Torquay. When I read the history of The Replacements band "Trouble Boys" I was amused to read that Blade apparently broke a copy of Pleased to Meet Me on air because he thought they were boorish in an interview they did for KROQ. If the link works the excerpt is here.

I had forgotten about the whole Gerrard at Villa angle to the City-Villa match. That does make it a bit more interesting; I suppose Villa will give it more than the ol' college try to get something from the game. It would be a hell of a collapse for City to lose it, though.

Here's hoping maybe a Trippier free kick late gets Newcastle something from the game and helps Spurs...
   89. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 16, 2022 at 03:21 PM (#6077010)
Arsenal look so shaky right now. The way it's going it would be Arsenal that would be so lucky to have it come down to a Trippier free kick late to give Newcastle something from the game.

edit: I see Newcastle has just the one shot, but they've had plenty of other dangerous possession in Arsenal's box.
   90. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 16, 2022 at 03:26 PM (#6077011)
On another note, I'm digging these pale-colored away shirts that are somewhat in vogue at the moment. Arsenal has this yellow one and Brighton has the green one. I'm sure there are others. Leicester (blue) and Liverpool (beige-grey) are a couple.
   91. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 16, 2022 at 03:36 PM (#6077014)
There's a debate on foul throws on twitter, started by Michael Cox. The very interesting thing to me is we had a backup goalkeeper in high school who occasionally played on the field, who was a big strong guy who was no better than average at throw-ins. One day just screwing around in practice he "learned" how to use the one-handed method that this Athletic article is referring to for TAA. Immediately (literally within a few throws) began launching the longest throws I'd seen at the high school level. (Remember, he was primarily a GK and was very used to throwing the ball with one hand, sometimes from a high angle a bit similar to a one-handed throw-in.) The throws only had the tiniest bit of sideways spin too, and unless you were watching very closely you couldn't tell that he was essentially using only one arm.

This always seemed illegal to me, as I was taught in the reffing classes I had (when I was 12 or 13) that the ball had to be thrown equally with both arms directly over the head, which TAA assuredly does not do, and neither did the highschool GK. The rules as written anyway don't actually seem to disallow it though, hence the current debate.

I don't know why all players don't throw the ball like this if it is actually legal. It certainly can't be a new technique if some highschool shmoe could learn it on his own screwing around in practice.

Also don't feel bad for the backup GK. The much better keeper we had graduated so this guy got one full year as the starter.
   92. SoSH U at work Posted: May 16, 2022 at 04:14 PM (#6077021)
I really dislike the one-hand throw, though to be fair I'm kind of biased as the father of a former player who could launch the ball using the traditional technique. As one onlooker observed when my child was in eighth grade (holy crap, she throws it farther than most of the guys on our varsity).
   93. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: May 16, 2022 at 04:56 PM (#6077032)
Given their advantage in GD a draw at Norwich is good enough for Tottenham now. Surely even Spurs can't mess this up?
   94. Mefisto Posted: May 16, 2022 at 04:58 PM (#6077034)
They'd better not. I just spent 2 hours rooting for ####### Newcastle just so Spurs could get 4th.
   95. Miserable, Non-Binary Candy is all we deserve CoB Posted: May 16, 2022 at 06:31 PM (#6077057)
They'd better not. I just spent 2 hours rooting for ####### Newcastle just so Spurs could get 4th.

Yeah, rooting for Team Dismemberment wasn't much fun, but from the MBM I read, it certainly seemed like they deserved the win.
   96. Mefisto Posted: May 16, 2022 at 06:40 PM (#6077058)
They did. They dominated the play all game.
   97. SoSH U at work Posted: May 16, 2022 at 07:00 PM (#6077063)
Yeah, rooting for Team Dismemberment wasn't much fun, but from the MBM I read, it certainly seemed like they deserved the win.


I enjoyed it, as a fan of Team Dismemberment. That was probably the best game they've played all season.
   98. Textbook Editor Posted: May 16, 2022 at 09:15 PM (#6077087)
As a Spurs fan, the fever pitch at which Newcastle played that game was both unexpected and very much appreciated. Honestly, they blew Arsenal off the pitch. I was expecting--at best--a cagey, 1-0, 1-1 game. I did not expect Arsenal to get their doors blown off.

Still, until the final whistle blows on Sunday, I will keep imagining new ways for Spurs to screw this up. They've been handed an absolute gift.

As a side note, though, Everton may well have all to play for on Sunday, and even though Everton have been awful, the team that played that game today can't be considered a lock to win over Everton (even if it is at home).
   99. KronicFatigue Posted: May 16, 2022 at 09:36 PM (#6077095)
They don't have much history of success (or, really, any, as they've never even been in the 2nd tier, let alone been in the top flight), but my lower-level team is 5th-tier Torquay United. The Gulls. Kind of at random, but when my sone started playing FIFA on the Wii back in 2011 they were still in the FL and in FIFA. They play in a stadium called "Plainmoor" which is about as English a name for a ground as you can get. And hey, Torquay is the home town of Sir Roger Deakins (though, alas, he is a Man United supporter).

They *almost* were promoted to the FL last year, but lost the Conference playoff final on penalties after Torquay's keeper came up and scored at the end of regulation to send the game to extra time. Listening to the game on the radio, you'd have thought the home announcers had lost their minds when that happened. It was fun.


Why would you tug at my heart strings like that for a team that's not in the game? Now, whomever I choose, I will be disappointed that they aren't Torquay United!

#78's Nottingham Forrest is a good choice, and has been on my radar the past couple of years when I've thought about doing this. But mainly because I mixed up Robinhood's Sherwood Forest of Nottingham.

This got me thinking though that I actually answered this question for myself so I searched my email, and sure enough, the team I want to go with is AFC Wimbledon. Fan owned and created out of spite when Wimbledon FC moved and became Milton Keynes Dons. Their rivalry is intense and AFC even got in trouble for not using their full name on a scoreboard and program once (left off the don)

Shared grounds with Chelsea's Women's club is the icing on the cake.

But thanks for the help!
   100. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: May 17, 2022 at 11:45 AM (#6077159)
As a side note, though, Everton may well have all to play for on Sunday, and even though Everton have been awful, the team that played that game today can't be considered a lock to win over Everton (even if it is at home).


Yeah it's probably 50-50 or so that Everton will need something that day. A win seals (undeserved) survival but any other result and Sunday is Ye Olde Squeakye Bumme Time. I don't know how they could be as bad as they've been all season then get 10 points from a five game stretch against United, Leicester x2, Chelsea and Livepool immediately after losing to Burnley.
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