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Wednesday, May 04, 2022
OT Soccer Thread - Crowning Champions and Pro-Rel
Bundesliga final day: May 14
Women’s UCL Final: May 21
Ligue Un final day: May 21
Serie A, Premier League, La Liga final day: May 22
Men’s UCL Final: May 28
Promotion! Relegation! European spots! Champions! It’s all to play for in May! Or, actually, just some of it is to play for but you know what I mean.
The Marksist
Posted: May 04, 2022 at 09:23 AM | 262 comment(s)
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Make fun of Arsenal all you like, and surely they deserve it for that last effort, but they are still 63% to beat Everton. That will go down a little bit if Everton doesn't win Thursday, but will go up a little bit if they do.
Sheffield United has come back from down 2 early in the game today to send it to extras. Winner takes in Huddersfield.
edit: and another great save, on a shot like that down the middle it looks easy but is very much not.
edit2: third save for Samba. Forest to the finals.
Both betting odds and 538 has Forest as the strong favorite. 65% by betting odds (64% 538).
Oh, I forgot Craven Cottage. Or Selhurst Park.
And to make sure it's not sweltering, how about Selhurst Park on Boxing Day?
Dear Lord how I'd love to...but that would also entail expanding my travel expenses a bit.
EVE 36 -22
LEE 35 -38
BUR 34 -18
Versus Leeds a draw matters IF we draw again Sunday and Leeds win then we are level on 38 points. The same two draw scenario becomes important IF Burnley win one and lose one, we would finish ahead of them 38-37 which we'd need to do.
Fans all over the field (with 5 minutes left still). Wild!
edit: Arsenal win odds already up to 69%.
Burnley hosts Newcastle while Leeds goes to Brentford. Neither are easy but Burnley's odds of matching the result will be pretty high.
Nice.
Yeah, now everybody's denying it. It's tied up with rumors that he might be buying into an MLS squad? Or something?
I don't doubt that Messi will come to these shores one day. I just don't think we're there yet.
Atlanta and Fiorentina are jockeying for the Europa Conference spot tomorrow.
But what's this? Apparently there's a thin line between madness and genius, because 10-man Leipzig gets the leveler late. IT could go to extra time.
Burnley still has a shot at staying up after needing 3 goals to go their way.
City needed 3 goals in 20 minutes. That's a hell of a response from a great, great team.
actual odds 538 Manchester City 93 87 81 Liverpool 92 77 74 Chelsea 74 78 73 Tottenham 71 60 60 Arsenal 69 62 60 Manchester United 58 74 68 West Ham United 56 50 52 Leicester City 52 59 57 Brighton 51 46 51 Wolverhampton 51 43 46 Newcastle United 49 39 44 Crystal Palace 48 39 38 Brentford 46 38 38 Aston Villa 45 49 50 Southampton 40 41 43 Everton 39 53 50 Leeds United 38 54 50 Burnley 35 39 41 Watford 23 34 36 Norwich City 22 35 37538 did a little better than betting odds this year, about .5 per team on average. Half of that though was Newcastle, where the ownership change made all the difference. 538 missed on City, but hit on United, Brighton, and Leeds. All 3 likely due to underlying stats that betting odds didn't fully account for.
edit: Now I'm seeing what happened after exactly 21 games. Sergio Gonzales became the coach, replacing Alvaro Cervera. In retrospect turns out to have been a masterful move.
Next year is gonna be a weird, weird year schedule-wise because of the World Cup falling from late Nov-late Dec. It will affect all the top-6 clubs, of course, but we won't know by how much until the turn of the year when we find out who came back from the WC hurt. Unless Spurs brings in a pretty good handful of players, they're going to remain pretty thin (with Doherty and Romero out they effectively had no great CB options and not really any good wingback options, and the CM fallback was, um, Harry Winks... They got VERY lucky with injuries the last 2 months of the season).
It's kind of amazing they'll even be playing CL football; in my mind even getting to the knockouts would be gravy next year. Given the depth of the squads ahead of them in the table + the WC... I just don't see how they are anywhere near a title next year. I mean, goofier things have happened of course, but they don't have a team that can put up 85+ points right now, and I'm guessing that's the minimum that would be needed next year to win it.
An exciting day! And what was even more bizarre was to think Spurs did not lose to either of the top 2 teams! And in fact gave City 2 of its 3 losses in the league.
Spurs played a fair bit of the last couple of months without 2 starters (Romero, Doherty) and injuries to key squad players who get regular starts (Skipp, Reguilon). That's 4 of their top, say, 15 or so guys. I'd be hard pressed to call that great luck. Especially since Doherty was on a very dirty play in a very dirty match from Villa.
But back to winning the league, I think it's really hard. Pep's just a league monster, and adding Haaland...
If they can get a world class CB and a world class MF, then a bit more squad depth at MF, they could be devastating. Let's see what incoming DOF Kylian Mbappe can pull off.
I actually think Haaland might backfire. I realize I'm likely in the very minority who thinks this, but my hunch is it throws some of the balance off. And, of course, it does nothing to address defense, which--one could argue--might have been a more pressing need.
Like I said, though, it's hard to know because the WC throws a real wild card into the season.
And, of course, that thing that I shall not name looms over the whole damn season, so ... all bets are off.
Yeah, I confess this is what's in the back of my mind when I say I have some doubts this is the signing most seem to think it is.
Spurs are 50/50 to finish top 4.
I haven't read this in a few weeks, but a few weeks ago there were all sorts of rumblings that Barca would NOT be picking up the option to buy Traore and that he'd be coming back to Wolves. If that actually happened... I do wonder how interested Spurs would be.
Put me on the list of Haaland signing skeptics. Like Zlatan it's not a matter of ability but a matter of fit.
Is there anything this summer? No continental tournaments of course, is MLS the only game in town? This might be an opportunity for them. If I were MLS I'd be changing rules and manipulating what I could to get guys like Pulisic, Adams, etc...over here on loans for the next few months. There are plenty of people who need game time in the presumptive USMNT squad and it's a chance to put some eyeballs on the league.
I guess book makers are counting on Conte not being at Spurs next year?
There's no way that Spurs are behind United to start next year if Conte stays (since the only way he'll stay is if he gets sufficient backing), I'd have them behind only the big two.
Very much looking to next season (with all the obvious caveats in place less than 1 week after the end of this last one).
That's the only reason I can see for not properly assessing United's chances. In fact, I'd guess in the EPL era there likely was never a time United's odd at finishing in the Top 4 were lower than 6th, regardless of how bad they were the previous season.
To be honest I think the wheels could completely come off at United, especially if they persist in playing Ronaldo. He just seems 180 degrees from how ten Hag would want to play--I don't see how that works out. And that's just the start of the problem to solve. To me, if I could get good odds for them finishing 11th or lower I'd consider putting $20 down on that. They're just a complete mess.
I wouldn't pick them to have a better shot at 4th next year than Spurs and Arsenal at the moment, but it's still fairly close. No way they are winning the league though. I'd sooner bet against them there then finishing top 4, at the odds above.
There is not that much money on these futures bets for United that it will move the line very much. A little bit sure, but the reason United is as high as they are is the same as ever. They generally have very talented players and can buy new ones more easily than Arsenal and Spurs, and there's a decent enough chance they'll put it together enough in any given season for top 4. It happened 3 times out of the last 5 years, which is in line with what you would have expected looking at the underlying stats.
Is this coming year likely to be worse than ever? Maybe! Certainly this last season is the worst finish they've had by points totals. Then again, they were in line for a top 4 chase until it totally fell apart in the second half of the seasons. They also have a new manager that people seem to think is competent, which hasn't been the case going into the last few seasons.
edit: oh and the odds have moved slightly since yesterday. Tottenham are still around 44%, but you can now find United at longer odds, around 41%.
The fundamental problem though is how much impact he has. I think the biggest post-SAF problem for United has been their recruitment has been crap. I'm not sure why it's been so bad but they've been completely unable to assemble a "team." I'm far from an expert but it seems to me that Fergie's United (like so many great teams) built from the spine out and regardless of what issues United had in place they had high-caliber stability down the middle;
Keeper: Schmeichel-VdS-DeGea
Center Back: Bruce-Pallister-Stam-Ferdinand-Vidic
Center Mid: Robson-Keane-Scholes-Carrick
And they've rounded it out with true finishers up top. Of course they also had some elite talents around it but I feel like that stability in the base was the starting point for what they did. You can look at Pep's City (or Barca) and I think see very much the same type of things Since Fergie left they've tried to bring in great players rather than building a great team. I realize that sounds a bit like Joe Morgan style claptrap (and maybe it is) but I think in a sport like soccer you have to have a degree of cohesiveness among the players. It's not so much about being buddy-buddy as it is about being able to work in unison on the pitch. Pogba is probably the finest example. He's a different player for France than he is for ManU. I don't believe he's giving more effort or anything like that but simply that he has a role to play and plays it. At United he doesn't seem to know what is expected of him.
Or y'know, they just ain't that good.
That's clearly a front office decision detached from the precepts and demands of "on the field requirements".
Was he terrible? No. He won them several games (that match against Spurs ... grrrrrr).
But. Bringing him in locked them into a number of on field tactical decisions where you're either playing Ronaldo and screwing with what you want to do tactically or NOT playing Ronaldo and having to manage him AND all the questions you get because of that.
That one is certainly in the peak "post Ferguson stoopid United decisions" discussions.
Honestly, I think it's under-appreciated (because of his goals) how much of a dinosaur he is and completely not fit to play for any top side (and that's just tactically, not even going into his wages). He's vastly, vastly overrated at this point in his career, and if United keep him (and, worse, play him!) there's not a snowball's chance in hell ten Hag can succeed in that job. I can only hope--as a supposed smart manager who really could have had any number of jobs (or stayed at Ajax!)--that he told United he either (a) won't play Ronaldo or (b) has told the club they have to sell him (butof course who would have him?).
Honestly, unless you have a 10-years-ago, Stoke-type team, I'm not sure where Ronaldo can play. It's been baffling to me for at least 2 years now how he can still be playing for any club with any real ambition. Playing him is essentially--given today's game--starting every game down a man tactically.
I think you can carry a guy who doesn't do some of the other things. It's a fair question if Ronaldo is still good enough to be considered such a guy. I suspect Ten Hag will be empowered to tell Ronaldo to contribute defensively. I have to imagine that came up in negotiations, both generally, but specifically about him.
Having said all that, I also think Rangnick was a bad coach. He wanted United to play a modern style game with high pressing, and the players he had weren't suited to that (not just Ronaldo, all of them). Instead of adjusting his theory to the boots on the ground, he just kept demanding the same tactics.
Look, I'm not a fan of him. But we have pretty good stats on fbref of how he does compared to other forwards over the last 365 days. His shot-creation actions, progressive carries, touches in the attacking penalty area, and passes attempted and completed are all in the 77th percentile or higher. His progressive passes and progressive passes received are both above average. We'd expect a striker for a top half team to get more opportunities here, but these numbers are still above average, and suggest more than someone who can only get on the end of chances. I don't think he should be a nailed on starter, but I think he still has a place on good teams if the manager can control him, and perhaps get him to work a bit more on defense. Not sure he's got the clout to say no to that now. Doesn't need to be a huge amount of work, just Salah/Kane level.
I think the far bigger issue is is the ball retention and passing range of their non-attackers. De Gea, their full backs, and McFred are pretty limited in this regard, and are well below where a team like United should be aiming.
When Solskjaer took over, they were successful by sitting deep and playing on the counter. The team could probably still do pretty well playing that way. By "pretty well" I mean challenging for 4th every year while a comfortable lock for 5th/6th. They have (and should have) ambitions beyond that and it's at this point that your criticisms and those of Ronaldo gain a lot more force.
The difference, which I think is a fair one, is those guys are all one man offenses (besides Aguero, who Pep still had to make work a bit more than he wanted).
Obviously there are other measures, but even Messi, who contributes far more to the offense than Ronaldo does, is in the 6th percentile. Lewandowski is in the 8th.
So you're right in the sense that lots of forwards aren't doing much on defense, but Ronaldo stands out in just how little he does.
If anyone is interested: They view Fred as cromulent, McTominay as a "ball winner" who doesn't win the ball, and the outside backs in desperate need of replacement. The caveats on the outside backs are that Shaw is good but injured too often, and that Wan-Bissaka would be fine in a different system but not the "press and possess" that United are trying to implement. Sancho was disappointing and Rashford bad (perhaps not fully recovered from injury).
Fred wouldn't be getting into a midfield with Rodri, Gundo, Silva, KDB, and Foden.
In general I agree with that though. If you want to be a possession team, you need to be able to progress the ball through the midfield, or through your FB/WBs. Even with good passing CBs/GK, you can't rely on them to do most of the work imo. City have chosen through the middle, Liverpool the wide areas. I think AWB could potentially work as a Kyle Walker type free safety that lets you overload press resistant, more attacking focused players. But Walker is so strong, he has some tools that AWB doesn't to where if he gets matched up on say a Benzema or Lukaku 1v1 with no one else between him and goal, you trust he won't just get shepherded into the box.
One thing I have always enjoyed about european soccer is that, unlike virtually every US sport, the game almost invariably started right around the announced kickoff time. If that's starting to change I'll be pretty annoyed.
No shots for Real Madrid so far, and no real looks on the counter either.
That's a weird goal there. Have no idea how VAR is going to rule that. I'd probably let it stand. Initial run by Benzema was brilliantly timed.
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