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Sunday, November 28, 2021

OT Soccer Thread - Domestic Cups, Congested Fixture Lists and Winter Breaks

Champions League Group Stage End - December 7/8
MLS Cup - December 11
Champions League Knockout Stage Draw - December 13
Women’s Champions League Group Stage End - December 15
One Year to World Cup Final - December 18
Women’s Champions League Knockout Stage Draw - December 20
FA Cup Third Round - January 8
CONCACAF World Cup Qualifiers Window - January 27-February 2
EFL Cup Final - February 27

Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 28, 2021 at 10:39 AM | 517 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: off topic, soccer

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1. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 28, 2021 at 10:51 AM (#6054985)

SOCCER THREAD LIVES! Guess I should have listed "Postponed Games" in there too.

2. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 28, 2021 at 10:52 AM (#6054986)

Story about that insane Benfica game from yesterday.

3. Mefisto Posted: November 28, 2021 at 10:59 AM (#6054988)

Thanks for the new thread. It's bad enough that I can't watch any of the games today, so I didn't need to be told I can't comment in the old thread.

4. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 28, 2021 at 12:37 PM (#6054992)

Spurs' game was postponed due to snow completely. It was a white out in the first half of the Man City game, and a white out in the second half of the Leicester game. Could barely see the ball.

I guess the storm moved southeast.

One very bad mistake by Jorginho dealing with a clearance in the Chelsea game and United are ahead. Very undeserved...

5. spivey 2 Posted: November 28, 2021 at 02:03 PM (#6054996)

Both West Ham/City and Chelsea/United were on Peacock Premium. I've watched a bit less of the EPL this year, but is that typical for the two biggest games of the weekend to both be on Premium?

Anyways, I'm just at my limit of streaming services I'm going to buy. It seems like that may ultimately drive me away from the EPL and Champion's League, which is kind of wild and seems like a bit of a killing the golden goose situation. At least CL you can usually watch a match or two with a cable or cable equivalent TV service, though it may be in spanish.

6. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 28, 2021 at 05:05 PM (#6055020)

I was surprised that Chelsea-United wasn’t on NBCSN at least if not NBC. NBCSN is supposed to be going away but I haven’t heard anything about that.

7. bestergonomicgamingchair.com Posted: November 28, 2021 at 05:51 PM (#6055030)

I might, *might* get Peacock if it had ALL of the PL matches (streaming LIVE), but no way I'm paying for half-and-half where the first half matchs are shown on the second as evening replays.

8. Mefisto Posted: November 28, 2021 at 06:36 PM (#6055040)

I might get Peacock if I could get it at all. Which I can't.

9. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 28, 2021 at 07:29 PM (#6055051)

The annoying thing for me is finding where the games are is more complicated than it needs to be. There is no reason I can’t just wake up, open Peacock, and start watching. Instead I have to go to NBCSN, see what’s there, then to Peacock, see what’s there, then decide.

Now in theory that should go away in a month. But I really can’t find anything particularly recent about what the status of NBCSN is.

10. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 28, 2021 at 07:30 PM (#6055052)

Peacock isn't expensive as far as streaming services go so I subscribe during Premier League season. I wonder if more games will end up there with NBCSN going away.

11. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 28, 2021 at 07:33 PM (#6055054)

OK, enough whining by me. Here’s the latest update.

Perhaps the most popular sporting event currently broadcast on NBC Sports Network is coverage of English Premier League soccer matches.

According to the report from the SBJ, the USA Network will immediately pick up the slack on Premier League coverage the day after NBC Sports Network signs off for the final time.

USA Network will broadcast a triple-header of Premier League soccer matches that will begin at 7 a.m. Eastern time on January 1, 2022. This is the first of what has been reported to be at least 1,500 hours of live sports coverage that will move from the NBC Sports Network to the USA Network.

USA, which you probably know for airing marathons of syndicated crime shows like Law & Order: Special Victims Unit or NCIS, is owned by NBCUniversal Media, and it will have a key role in helping maintain the company’s sports presence in the absence of NBCSN.

If you’re a soccer fan, you may want to start thinking ahead to ensure that your live TV subscriptions (cable or streaming) include access to the USA Network.

12. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 30, 2021 at 03:03 PM (#6055388)

Newcastle went down to 10 players minutes after the start of a must-win game at home against the worst team in the league. That's bad!

13. SoSH U at work Posted: November 30, 2021 at 03:09 PM (#6055393)

That's bad!

Indeed. And it was a an easy call.

14. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 30, 2021 at 10:19 PM (#6055480)

Wild finish in New England. Castellanos puts NYCFC up 2-1 in the 109th minute but then is sent off for a second yellow about 3 minutes later. A couple minutes later NYC’s right back goes down with a hamstring injury and they can’t sub him because they’ve used all their windows. He stays on but he’s basically just a speed bump out there. The Revs attack his Side and Buchanan puts home a great cross from Boateng to equalize. At this point it’s 11 on 9 and Buksa gets a step on the defense but Sean Johnson makes a great save to keep it level. Looking like penalties here.

15. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 30, 2021 at 10:22 PM (#6055481)

Here we go. Heart attack time for the Revs and NYCFC.

16. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 30, 2021 at 10:31 PM (#6055482)

NYCFC convert all five kicks for the 5-3 win. Record setting regular season for the Revs goes by the boards.

17. jmurph Posted: December 01, 2021 at 02:48 PM (#6055612)

What is happening in Chelsea-Watford? Game suspended due to "medical incident in the crowd."

18. I am going to be Frank Posted: December 01, 2021 at 03:15 PM (#6055621)

Does anyone know what is going in Italy with all these investigations? I assume financial shenanigans.

19. I am going to be Frank Posted: December 01, 2021 at 04:03 PM (#6055637)

Wow Bernardo made that look very easy when it's definitely not.

20. The Marksist Posted: December 01, 2021 at 04:09 PM (#6055640)

Does anyone know what is going in Italy with all these investigations? I assume financial shenanigans.

Transfer finance shenanigans, as I understand it. I haven't followed much, but something about inflated transfer fees on paper to create the illusion of extra cash incoming.

21. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 01, 2021 at 04:23 PM (#6055647)

Missed almost all of the games today, but Brighton held their own at West Ham except they couldn't score. Had to play with 10 starting in the 85th minute when Lallana went out with an injury and all their subs had been used. And then the got the equalizer after all!

22. The Marksist Posted: December 01, 2021 at 05:10 PM (#6055661)

As of the end of today's games, there are exactly four teams in the Premier League with a positive goal difference, Liverpool (31), Chelsea (27), City (21), and West Ham (8). Next best in the division are Wolves and Brentford at even. There are few teams at -1 to -3.

23. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 01, 2021 at 05:12 PM (#6055664)

The only team outside the top 3 that has a win this round so far is Leeds. Two games still to play tomorrow.

No one is catching the top 3.

A good game tomorrow by Arsenal against United could see them pass both United and WestHam in 538's ratings, for 4th best rated in the EPL. A win tomorrow would likely also put them in 4th in the EPL over United in ELO (cubelo.com version). They are already 5th.

Also, none of the other teams with the best xG against teams outside the top 3 really did that well this round or last round, so Arsenal is still in the lead there, for now at least.

24. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 01, 2021 at 06:00 PM (#6055672)

A win by Arsenal tomorrow and they'll be considered favorites over United for top 4 by betting odds. Over the rest of the league too, obviously.

25. jmurph Posted: December 02, 2021 at 03:33 PM (#6055916)

What terrible refereeing in Arsenal-United to disallow that at first. Good that they got it right ultimately but that's just outrageously bad refereeing.

26. spivey 2 Posted: December 02, 2021 at 04:35 PM (#6055929)

Bah god Tottenham dominated another match in xG!

27. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 02, 2021 at 05:27 PM (#6055942)

Didn't see the game, but the stats were quite impressed with Spurs.

After their great start, Brentford has been bad over the last 5 games. Currently given the best odds to go down after the 4 teams on the hot seat (Norwich, Newcastle, Watford, and Burnley). 538 has them as 5th worst in the EPL, just ahead of Burnley, and not that close to the team above them (Southampton).

I thought Brentford might be a fun team in the last 8 of the League Cup. Not so much any more, though I still wish them well. Chelsea should handle them very easily (and in fact, are about 75% to advance over Brentford currently, despite the game being at Brentford).

28. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2021 at 12:21 PM (#6056028)

Omicron arrived just in time for Barca, maybe. It's a conspiracy of the elite.

Bayern game will be played behind closed doors in München. Bayern will have nothing to play for, and not even a crowd to impress.

29. spivey 2 Posted: December 03, 2021 at 12:44 PM (#6056031)

8-2 happened behind closed doors, I believe.

I got the sense from some of the Bayern quotes that they may be feeling a lack of respect for Lewa and the Bundesliga. They've got a lot of midfielders out right now, more attackers than starting spots so I'd assume those guys are hungry. I think Bayern is going to create chances. It's just a question of if Barca can too.

30. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2021 at 12:54 PM (#6056033)

ok, and likely they will beat Barca, because they are just a lot better. That said, crowds matter! And they especially matter in games that don't otherwise matter for the home team. This is a very big break for Barca.

31. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2021 at 03:36 PM (#6056048)

There's a major disconnect between betting odds and current xG table, for all of ManUnited, Tottenham, and Arsenal. This is not a surprise. xGD, like goals scored (but hopefully a bit less so), is a sample (one of multiple) of past performance not a measure of true talent going forward. It's important, but just one of several things that should be looked at when projecting future performance. You might notice that these three teams have resources most of the others in the EPL will never have, and generally have players thought to be the most talented players in the league outside of the top 3. Betting odds is factoring all this in when projecting future performance.

Currently, West Ham is perceived by betting odds to be right there with Arsenal and Spurs, but nobody else is. And none of those three are perceived to be there with ManUnited.

32. spivey 2 Posted: December 04, 2021 at 02:00 PM (#6056137)

Some interesting matches today.

West Ham beat Chelsea, and I didn't watch it, but it seems deserved on xG. Weird goal to win the game on a mishit cross, though I think Mendy should still have saved it. Tuchel mentioned after the game he doesn't know when Kante will be back, Jorginho is playing hurt, and Kovacic is out too. Their midfield isn't flashy, but it's really good. I think Liverpool and City could pull away from Chelsea. I think they're better, though Chelsea is right there with them now.

Dortmund/Bayern has been very good. Very open, like these matches often are.

Barcelona lost to Betis. That's a big match. Barca are now 7 points back of 4th, and 6 points back of 5th. Betis and Real Sociedad are both having good seasons, so, while I'd still favor Barca to qualify for CL, it's by no means guaranteed right now.

33. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 04, 2021 at 02:06 PM (#6056138)

I watched most of the Chelsea / West Ham game. Chelsea was probably the better team overall but not by that much, and West Ham was probably the better team in the second half. The PK came off the stupidest of mistakes by Jorginho and Mendy, in combination, and without that Chelsea was a bit better than West Ham on xG, and had much more of the run of play in the first half.

Was a very bad day for the keepers. 4 of the goals (2 each way), and especially the penalty, probably should not have happened or been saved.

34. spivey 2 Posted: December 04, 2021 at 02:08 PM (#6056139)

Dortmund may be a bit hard done by that penalty. I dunno, it's a bit like the NFL where you can't predict what's a catch, I can't predict what they will or won't call a handball these days. Especially since there was another 50/50 push in the back from Lucas Hernandez on Reus they didn't call or even review, but I think Reus had gotten around the corner, and it'd have been called a foul anywhere else on the pitch.

35. spivey 2 Posted: December 04, 2021 at 02:23 PM (#6056144)

Interesting fact I read on reddit. The head referee of the Dortmund/Bayern match, Felix Zwayer, was involved in the 2005 German match fixing scandal. Link.

36. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 05, 2021 at 09:08 AM (#6056246)

Best non-pen xGD outside of the top 3 is currently Palace, significantly ahead of United. They are also, as you would expect, massive underdogs in Manchester.

Palace has been much better than advertised and United has been much worse. Still, everybody knows United is the better team still, and it's not particularly close.

37. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: December 05, 2021 at 12:23 PM (#6056250)

HUGE break for Leicester at the end of the half. Villa get a goal disallowed because Schmeichel is ruled to be in control of a ball that he had one hand on for about a 1/50th of a second.

38. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 05, 2021 at 12:55 PM (#6056252)

I think I've seen these kinds of plays go either way, and they are ultimately a judgment call whether there was enough control. Certainly Leicester was very lucky. Also lucky that they just got that call on the ball over the top. Villa could have 4 by now pretty easily.

I do know that when I was learning refereeing as a teenager way back when from a curmudgeonly ex-brit life-long soccer player and coach, his view was that it took very little for a GK to have control, and that play certainly would have qualified.

edit: looking at the replay some more I think he had it trapped between his hand and the ground, and the ball was no longer rolling a split second before it was kicked by Villa. By the letter of the rule that seems to be the keeper's ball.

39. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 05, 2021 at 01:11 PM (#6056253)

One reason not to be too low on teams like Arsenal and to a lesser extent Spurs and United, is that aside from West Ham there aren't any other teams that have really looked very good this year. A lot of teams look decent but no one else really seems ready to challenge for Europe. Leicester was expected to be good but have underperformed. Leeds were overhyped coming into the season and have been pretty bad overall. The other team picked for the top 10 was I think Brighton, and they haven't won in 10 games.

edit: actually 538 had Brighton in the top 10 pre-season but betting odds had Leeds. Both systems also had Everton, but they've been terrible, relative to expectation.

40. spivey 2 Posted: December 05, 2021 at 01:25 PM (#6056254)

Leicester have had a really disappointing year. Their open play xGD is about even, but they're absolutely abysmal on corners. They've given up 5.97 xGA on corners before today. Also just not getting many goal chances beyond Vardy. They got nice years from Barnes and Iheanacho last year and haven't gotten that production this year.

41. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 05, 2021 at 05:37 PM (#6056279)

Arsenal is still holding on to their league in non-pen XG against the mini-league that excludes the top 3. They are at about +.38 per game (statsbomb) or +.53 per game (understat). West Ham is not far behind, at +.37 (statsbomb) or .41 (understat).

Palace, Spurs, and Leicester are also not too far behind in statsbomb. Only Palace is close in understat, at .44 per game. Next closest in understat is United, at .22.

For projected points by betting odds, United is still given a significant edge on the chasing pack of Spurs, West Ham, and Arsenal. Arsenal and Spurs are projected to get 38 more points, and West Ham 35 more (in 1 fewer game). United is projected to get 45 more points. Spurs and Arsenal have similar schedules in terms of difficulty, so must be rated pretty similarly right now ye betting odds. West Ham has an easier schedule, worth at least a 1 point difference, and one fewer game, worth maybe a bit less than 2 in the other direction, so are rated as a little worse than Spurs/Arsenal.

Next closest is Leicester, expected to get 32 more points out of a slightly harder schedule, so put them a bit behind West Ham. Out of the rest, only Villa is expected to get 30 more points.

Because there is already a points gap between the top 7 and the rest, currently there is a big gap projected between Spurs, West Ham, and Arsenal, at 63, 62, and 61 points projected, and the chasing pack of Leicester, Villa, Wolves, and Brighton, at 51, 49, 47, and 47 points projected, respectively.

42. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 05, 2021 at 06:35 PM (#6056284)

EPL Betting odds:

winner

city        59

liverpool   24
chelsea     15

field        2

top4

city        99
liverpool   96
chelsea     93

united      50

tottenham   20
west ham    19
arsenal     18

field        5

relegation

norwich     78

newcastle   50
watford     49
burnley     49

leeds       16
brentford   15

everton     11
southampton 10
palace       9

wolves       4
villa        4
brighton     3
leicester    2

43. spivey 2 Posted: December 06, 2021 at 01:22 PM (#6056391)

One other reasonably important bit of news - Jess Marsch out at RB Leipzig. Didn't last long. They're 11th in the table, 6th in xPoints, and just generally haven't played very well for how talented the squad is. Next manager will have some work to do.

44. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 06, 2021 at 05:10 PM (#6056424)

The Everton song sounds like something you'd hear at Disneyland, maybe sung by the seven dwarfs.

45. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 06, 2021 at 11:17 PM (#6056464)

Tweet says its "probable" that more Portuguese sides will make the KOs than Spanish sides. It isn't probable in the normal sense, i.e., in the sense that it is more likely than not to happen.

Real Madrid and Sporting are in.

For the rest:
Benfica 59%
Porto 54%

Villarreal 48%
Barca 41%
Sevilla 40%
Atleti 24%

If Barca takes the spot from Benfica, Spain can't finish with fewer teams. That's 41%. If not, then Spain still has a 24% chance with Atleti to at least match Portugal, and if they don't get that, still a decent chance if Milan gets that group 69%*22% = 15% and another 19%*54% = 10% chance or so to tie at 3 each if Porto takes it. Add it up and it's about 50% that Spain makes up the difference if Barca misses out to Benfica, so 70/30 that Spain has at least as many teams as Portugal.

46. The Marksist Posted: December 07, 2021 at 08:41 AM (#6056483)

Just saw Sam Kerr's chip in the Chelsea/Arsenal match from yesterday, and it is perfect. I love this kind of goal so much.

47. jmurph Posted: December 07, 2021 at 09:04 AM (#6056484)

That's a delightful goal.

48. manchestermets Posted: December 07, 2021 at 10:15 AM (#6056491)

The Everton song sounds like something you'd hear at Disneyland, maybe sung by the seven dwarfs.

Which one? Their entrance music?

49. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 07, 2021 at 10:17 AM (#6056492)

That one is bad too. But I meant "It's a grand old team."

50. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 07, 2021 at 01:43 PM (#6056516)

Leipzig will be going to Europa since Brugge needs a result to even be in the conversation for third, and they are down 3-0. City started a strong lineup (why) and are losing anyway.

edit: ok, I know they have basically two full "A" teams, but even today they have a bunch of guys on the bench who don't get a lot of minutes. Should have just started them. Don't complain about fixture overload.

edit2: to be fair, only 4 of the starters from Saturday are starting today, and of those, only Walker went the full 90. They did just put in Sterling at the half, who also went the full 90. I guess you could argue that City likes these games because a lot of their stars get limited playing time. If that's the case though, there aren't really too many games, for City anyway.

51. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 07, 2021 at 02:30 PM (#6056526)

Oh nice. Walker gets a red so I assume he misses the first KO game. Looked like pure petulance, maybe because City was losing. Not smart...

52. jmurph Posted: December 07, 2021 at 02:41 PM (#6056528)

City started a strong lineup (why)

I've given up hoping for any better on this specific front, Pep is nuts.

53. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 07, 2021 at 03:02 PM (#6056530)

Liverpool seems to have started more of the bench. This game against Milan has far more group implications as well than the one City just played.

54. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 07, 2021 at 03:26 PM (#6056534)

If Milan scores, we might actually see Porto try to play offense with some urgency in this game. At the moment they seem to be playing for the draw, and not doing particularly well at that. Atleti with the best chances so far.

Suarez had to go out early with an injury and seemed quite distraught.

edit: and Milan gets a goal! If scores hold up Milan advances. Still very early.
edit2: these teams should really be going for it now. They can't expect Liverpool to help them out today, especially since they haven't started that strong of a lineup, and are on the road. Atleti also needs 2 goals at the moment.
edit3: Milan keeper can't hold onto a shot and Salah punches in the rebound. Big disappointment there for Milan.

55. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 07, 2021 at 04:05 PM (#6056542)

Porto did finally wake up right around the time Milan scored their goal. This game could end up 0-0 though, especially now that Liverpool drew level. Would hardly be a shock.

56. and Posted: December 07, 2021 at 04:12 PM (#6056543)

I've been unable to watch any games on Paramount+ today. Looks like the entire UEFA feed is borked on that app.

57. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: December 07, 2021 at 04:12 PM (#6056544)

Not just you.

58. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 07, 2021 at 04:16 PM (#6056545)

Goal Atleti! So. Day started with Porto going through. Goal Milan and Milan was going through. Goal Liverpool and Porto was going through again. Now goal Atleti and Atleti is going through.

Griezmann totally, totally unmarked on the back post on a corner--ball came to him after a glancing header off the defender.

Liverpool scored again (I missed it...) so now Atleti just needs to hold on. Pretty unlikely Milan will score twice more.

59. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 07, 2021 at 04:27 PM (#6056550)

Hold your horses. Red card for Carrasco.

edit: Then Pepe tries to stir #### up, knowing he has a spare yellow. No success, though he did earn his yellow.
edit2: this game is farce now. Atleti will go to ground holding their faces every time there is any contact, trying to run out the clock. It's about to get real ugly unless Porto scores.
edit3: And a red card for a bench player, coach, somebody.
edit4: Actually it's Wendell off. 10 v 10 now. This game is a joke. He did almost nothing for that red.
edit5: to be fair, the red for Carrasco was pretty weak too, so it seems like a makeup call. Wendell should have known that there was risk of a makeup call, but really he did so little for that red.

60. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 07, 2021 at 04:34 PM (#6056552)

Lost in all this, the best chances have probably gone Atleti's way, and at any rate they have a massive lead in xG, much more than you would guess watching the game. Overall it's been fairly even with maybe a slight edge in chances to Atleti.

61. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 07, 2021 at 04:47 PM (#6056555)

It will be pretty hard to root for Atleti after that display between the two red cards. That said, it really worked for them--they got the makeup call and unless something happens in the next couple minutes will advance. Just a joke of a way to ref a game though.

62. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 07, 2021 at 04:50 PM (#6056556)

Atleti scores a second, and this one is over. Announcers call it a smash and grab, but that's highly inaccurate. Atleti were the better team on the night, even if it was much closer than the scoreline or xG would suggest.

ok now it's 0-3, and xG has become a slaughter. Still a pretty close game that got out of hand late.

Real Madrid also won, to win the group, so Spanish teams have done well today.

edit: Milan would have finished third had they drew Liverpool. Now they are out. Porto goes to Europa.
edit2: oh wait that's not right. Head-to-head goals still matters, just not away goals. A draw would not have been enough for Milan.

63. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 07, 2021 at 05:09 PM (#6056558)

(Also, so much for Portugal having more teams in the KOs than Spain. Can't happen now.)

64. spivey 2 Posted: December 07, 2021 at 09:41 PM (#6056577)

I think Carrasco's red was reasonably deserved, and Wendell's was very soft. All the xG/etc. talk doesn't really reflect the fact that Porto would have gotten about 25 minutes more of play up a man, where they'd definitely be favored. I think there's a smash and grab element to the win for that, alone.

Unrelated, but I was looking at the Dutch table as there's news that Ajax may be interested in Bergwijn. Ajax has a GD of +46, 48 goals and 2 goals allowed in 15 matches, which is one of the more ridiculous GD splits I've seen in a legit league. Also shocking is they're only 1 point clear of 2nd and 2 points clear of 3rd. It's very likely they still win the league, but they're much more in danger if they were to lose to Feyenoord or PSV than a team with their GD and talent relative to the league has any right to be.

65. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 07, 2021 at 11:08 PM (#6056584)

No doubt the game would have looked very different 11 on 10, and it's not at all clear who would have been favored at that point. Maybe Porto to get the draw they needed.

I have generally viewed "smash and grab" to have a pretty specific meaning in English soccer parlance though, and Atleti's performance up to the 65th minute (and certainly after they went back to 10v10, though we can ignore that here) wouldn't qualify. They had just as many shots as Porto to that point, and had the best chances, including a number from inside the box in the previous 10 minutes, and had racked up three times the xG (though that certainly flattered them a little bit),

66. Textbook Editor Posted: December 08, 2021 at 11:40 AM (#6056641)

Spurs reportedly down to 10 senior outfield players without COVID and able to play tomorrow. May dip into under-23s to fill out roster, but the article wasn't clear on how that would work--wouldn't they have to have been registered for Europa Conference League play? Or can they drop people and add others? I have no idea how that works.

Conte mentions he's vaccinated but declines to comment on whether players who are infected are or are not.

It's going to take a famous athlete dying from COVID to get 99% of athletes to get vaccinated, isn't it? Just sheer madness.

67. bestergonomicgamingchair.com Posted: December 08, 2021 at 01:14 PM (#6056664)

What a mess with Spurs. At this point, it's a serious question if they're better off just biting the bullet and forfeiting the match (despite sanctions).
I imagine Rennes aren't too keen to play the match, either, even with testing.

Conte, today:

“Yes but surely it is difficult. But now we have 11 players available and today we prepared the game with one player that should play then we finished the session and this player was positive.

68. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 08, 2021 at 01:58 PM (#6056673)

I know this is just the Europa Conference League, and maybe Spurs don't want to be in it at all, but forfeiting would very likely hand the spot to Vitesse. So would losing of course.

69. Textbook Editor Posted: December 08, 2021 at 02:15 PM (#6056677)

If Spurs forfeit they also would apparently have ALL of their group games nullified (nil points) and forfeit ALL TV revenue from the competition.

The points issue may affect their coefficient around the margins for next year--because that is (in part) based on wins/draws, I believe. So the affect--I believe--on the coefficient would be as if they never participated in Europe at all in the 2021-2022 season (just like Arsenal).

I mean, if they can field a team, even if it's mainly U-23s, they probably should just play and lose so as not to incur the penalties, but it's liable to be a farce and certainly not what ticket-holders were expecting (so there's that angle as well).

70. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 08, 2021 at 02:19 PM (#6056679)

Chelsea has 20 more minutes to get a goal and finish first in the group.

If they finish first, they will have one of PSG, Inter, Atleti, Benfica/Barca, Atalanta/Villarreal, a Group G team, and Sporting.
If they finish second, they would face one of Bayern, RealMadrid, Ajax, and a Group G team.

Based on that, I'm sure they'd prefer to finish first, but either way there will still be a lot of luck of the draw involved.

71. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 08, 2021 at 02:38 PM (#6056682)

Wow! Chelsea pull ahead on a nice series of passes and good finish by Werner, but a great shot deep in stoppage time and it'3 3-3. They'll finish second now barring a very late goal.

72. bestergonomicgamingchair.com Posted: December 08, 2021 at 02:42 PM (#6056683)

#69 ... I didn't know those things, thanks! I agree, in the light of that it's better to farce it out with the U-23s.

73. I am going to be Frank Posted: December 08, 2021 at 02:43 PM (#6056684)

Chelsea looked pretty dominant early in the match. Wasn't paying attention after that, but finishing 2nd is not ideal.

74. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 08, 2021 at 02:51 PM (#6056686)

The pot 2 teams to avoid (by betting odds) in the round of 16 draw are PSG and Chelsea. Of the other favorites (5 teams most fancied here), City can't face either one of them; Liverpool can face PSG only; Bayern can face either.

Dark horse teams by betting odds are United, RealMadrid, and Ajax. Rest are longshots.

75. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 08, 2021 at 03:06 PM (#6056689)

Seems to be raining hard in Munich too, which if anything should slop up the game and help Barca.

76. I am going to be Frank Posted: December 08, 2021 at 03:12 PM (#6056690)

I know this match doesn't matter, but United's lineup is something.

77. spivey 2 Posted: December 08, 2021 at 03:51 PM (#6056697)

Barcelona is in dire straights here. Benfica up 2-0, Barca down 2-0.

ter Stergen giving up that second goal is absolutely absurd. There were people rating him as a top 3 keeper in the world and asking for Neuer to be benched for him a few years ago. He just seems like a guy right now.

78. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 08, 2021 at 03:58 PM (#6056698)

I couldn't watch the last 15 minutes of the half, when both goals were scored. Prior to that it seemed like not much was happening, and the game could go either way.

Atalanta/Villarreal snowed out, so will be played tomorrow.

79. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 08, 2021 at 04:05 PM (#6056700)

Salzburg is also playing behind closed doors, I just realized. They have one shot on the day so far, but only need a draw to advance. Still 0-0.

edit: and Salzburg scores! Sevilla now needs 2 Wolfsburg also needs 2, since they are also trailing to Lille 0-1. Barca needs 3.

80. spivey 2 Posted: December 08, 2021 at 04:12 PM (#6056702)

Netherlands matches are behind closed doors and I think it's very realistic given where we are and where we're heading that large chunks of the remaining season in some countries and likely some CL knockouts will be behind closed doors.

81. bestergonomicgamingchair.com Posted: December 08, 2021 at 04:22 PM (#6056705)

Leicester is also out players for tomorrow:

It is understood the Leicester players who did not travel are Kelechi Iheanacho, Ademola Lookman, Daniel Amartey, Jannik Vestergaard, Ayoze Pérez, Filip Benkovic and Vontae Daley-Campbell. Leicester need a draw to ensure they advance.

“We’ve had a number of people, staff and players, who haven’t travelled,” Rodgers said. “We’ve had some positive [Covid] cases, some are generally not well, so we haven’t taken the risk.

“We will have seven unavailable. It’s been [over the] last few days, really. In general, you’re starting to see a few more cases and, for us, it’s always about the health of our players. We have to respect travelling into Italy.

82. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 08, 2021 at 04:35 PM (#6056709)

Sevilla down to 10 on a second yellow. Lille just scored their second, and now a third. Bayern scored a third. These games are all done now.

Pot 1 teams, in order of perceived quality:

City
Bayern
Liverpool
United
RealMdrid
Ajax (Ajax/United/RealMadrid are very close)
Juventus
Lille

Pot2 team, in order of perceived quality

PSG
Chelsea
Atleti
Inter
Atalanta/Villarreal
Salzburg
Benfica
Sporting

83. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 08, 2021 at 04:38 PM (#6056710)

Barcelona and Sevilla are joining Dortmund and Leipzig in Europa. And Villarreal/Atalanta. Porto too. That's a good haul of teams for Europa.

84. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 08, 2021 at 04:41 PM (#6056713)

These games this afternoon really fizzled out, and it was made worse by the Villarreal/Atalanta postponement.

85. bestergonomicgamingchair.com Posted: December 08, 2021 at 05:31 PM (#6056728)

Rennes match off for Spurs

Tottenham have been forced to call off their Europa Conference League tie at home against Rennes on Thursday night after an alarming rise in Covid cases at the club as English football confronted an escalating crisis.

Spurs also confirmed they had closed the first-team area of their training centre in Enfield, hours after Leicester reported that seven of their players had not travelled to their Europa League game at Napoli because of coronavirus or illness. Three members of staff did not make the trip either because of illness.

Tottenham said: “Discussions are ongoing with Uefa and we shall provide a further update on this fixture in due course.” Their manager, Antonio Conte, had earlier admitted he was “scared” as he revealed eight players and five coaches had tested positive for the virus. Spurs are now likely to ask the Premier League to postpone their match at Brighton on Sunday, and the visit to Leicester next Thursday is also set to be affected.

86. spivey 2 Posted: December 08, 2021 at 05:40 PM (#6056730)

Will be interesting to see what happens. Seems like UEFA expected them to play as of yesterday, and Tottenham may not have gotten permissions. Tottenham being out of this competition isn't the worst thing in the world.

87. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 08, 2021 at 06:12 PM (#6056733)

Yikes. Definitely not the worst thing for Tottenham, but it is bad for the competition. My guess is that they will let them reschedule.

88. bestergonomicgamingchair.com Posted: December 08, 2021 at 07:01 PM (#6056738)

Leicester and Spurs are also scheduled to meet on the 16th ... at this rate, they'll both be pulling "players" off the street and from the stands to make their 11s ...

89. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 09, 2021 at 01:30 AM (#6056756)

Pre-draw CL betting odds (% to win). These are a pretty good indication of perceived team quality, except that pot 2 teams will be given slightly less chance to succeed due to their likely tougher path. So bump up PSG and Chelsea slightly (bringing them much closer to Liverpool in perceived quality) and bump down Juve and Lille slightly.

City               22
Bayern             19

Liverpool          14 
PSG                11
Chelsea             9

United              6
Real Madrid         5.5
Ajax                5

Juve                2.5
Atleti              2
Inter               1.5
Atalanta/Villarreal 1
         
Lille               0.5
Salzburg            0.4
Benfica             0.4
Sporting            0.2

Those top 8 are also the current consensus top 8 teams in the world (and those top 5 are the consensus top 5 in the world, and the top 2 are the consensus top 2). The others that dropped into Europa, or didn't make it to the CL in the first place, are considered not quite as good. It's harder to say which teams would probably round out the top 10, but Juve, Atleti, and Inter would be in the conversation, along with some of the teams that dropped into Europa, and maybe even teams like Napoli, West Ham, Leverkusen, or even Arsenal.

90. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 09, 2021 at 11:32 AM (#6056786)

Some very big games today at 12:45 and 1:00. Napoli/Leicester is close to a play-in game, and Sociedad/PSV is a play-in game. Then of course, Villarreal/Atalanta.

The late slot is much sparser, with the biggest game actually being in the ECL, where Union plays Slavia in a play-in game.

91. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 09, 2021 at 01:48 PM (#6056801)

Villarreal up 0-2 at the half, making the most of their big chances. Spain will get it's third team in the QFs, versus 2 for Italy and just 1 for Germany.

La Liga has certainly declined in a big way relative to the EPL, but is for the most part still a very good league.

92. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 09, 2021 at 02:01 PM (#6056802)

It's a wild one in Naples. Leicester has come down from 2-0 to draw level. With Spartak currently winning, a draw sends Napoli to the ECL and Leicester would finish second and have an extra round against likely one of the decent CL teams dropping into Europa.

93. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 09, 2021 at 02:12 PM (#6056806)

Napoli scored, so are now in the driver's seat. Sociedad is up 2-0, so they will face one of the teams from the CL in the KOs. PSV down to the ECL and will be one of the favorites there.

94. spivey 2 Posted: December 09, 2021 at 02:29 PM (#6056807)

This has to be the strongest Europa knockouts teams since I can remember. A lot of teams in that 9th-20th best in the world range will be in the competition.

95. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 09, 2021 at 02:47 PM (#6056811)

Leicester can't get the goal, so they are going to ECL. But wait! Last gasp penalty given on VAR in the simultaneous Legia game, would be enough for Leicester. And it's... missed! Leicester down after all. Crazy. Leicester will be one of the top few favored teams in the ECL. Along with Spurs (if they advance), Roma, and PSV.

96. and Posted: December 09, 2021 at 03:07 PM (#6056817)

Dinamo Zagreb just scored a fantastic goal. Go find it.

97. spivey 2 Posted: December 09, 2021 at 03:14 PM (#6056818)

Wonder if Rennes should be among the top teams too. 2nd in Ligue 1, with a +11 xGD and in the mix for CL on both points and xPoints. Ligue 1 is weird, the teams seem pretty fluid year to year, I guess because they are in many ways a developmental league (and may also be a sign they're not really that good, which is why they regress).

98. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 09, 2021 at 03:18 PM (#6056819)

Rangers are not even in the best half of Europa teams this year. There are 4 teams from La Liga, 4 from the Bundesliga, 3 from Serie A, 2 decent teams from Ligue 1, and also Porto and West Ham, all of whom are at least as good if not better.

99. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 10, 2021 at 12:37 AM (#6056872)

Europa odds pre-draw. Asterisked teams have a bye, so are not perceived to be as good as they look here.

Dortmund         12.5
Barcelona        12
Sevilla          9  
West Ham     *   8
Atalanta         6
Leipzig          6.5
Napoli           6
Lyon         *   5
Leverkusen   *   5
Sociedad         4
Lazio            4
Porto            3.5
Monaco       *   3
Betis            3
Frankfurt    *   2.5
Zenit            2
Rangers          1.5
Olympiacos       1.5
Galatasaray  *   1.5
Braga            1
Red Star     *   1
Spartak      *   1
Zagreb           0.5
Sheriff          0.5

100. Mefisto Posted: December 10, 2021 at 08:57 AM (#6056879)

Flip.

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