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Sunday, November 28, 2021

OT Soccer Thread - Domestic Cups, Congested Fixture Lists and Winter Breaks

Champions League Group Stage End - December 7/8
MLS Cup - December 11
Champions League Knockout Stage Draw - December 13
Women’s Champions League Group Stage End - December 15
One Year to World Cup Final - December 18
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Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 28, 2021 at 10:39 AM | 517 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off topic, soccer

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   201. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 03, 2022 at 03:39 PM (#6059463)
Latest betting odds:
winner
city         89.5

liverpool     7.5
chelsea       2.5
field         0.5

top 4
liverpool    97
chelsea      91.5

united       33
tottenham    31
arsenal      30

west ham     14

leicester     2.5
field         1

top 6
united       78
arsenal      71
tottenham    70
  
west ham     46

leicester    14

wolves        6
brighton      5.5
villa         5
field         4.5

relegation
norwich       92

watford       60
burnley       60
newcastle     43

leeds         15.5

everton        8.5
brentford      7.5
southampton    6.5

palace         4
villa          2
field          1
   202. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 03, 2022 at 05:13 PM (#6059482)
EPL expected team quality for second half of the season, ​by betting odds
team       pts. exp.  games   /game  played twice         yet to play
city           39.25    17    2.31   arsenal, brentford   --  
liverpool      39.25    18    2.18   chelsea              --    
chelsea        35.25    17    2.07   liverpool, villa     --

united         33.75    19    1.78   wolves, newcastle    brighton, brentford

tottenham      32.25    20    1.61   palace, watford      leicester, brighton, burnley
arsenal        29.25    18    1.63   city, norwich        wolves

west ham       26.25    18    1.46   palace, southampton  norwich
leicester      28.75    20    1.44   city                 tottenham, everton
brighton       23.75    19    1.25*  everton, brentford   united, tottenham
villa          26.75    19    1.41   chelsea, brentford   leeds, burnley

wolves         23.75    19    1.25   united               arsenal
everton        24.25    20    1.21   brighton             leicester, newcastle

newcastle      22.75    19    1.20   united               everton
southampton    22.25    19    1.17   west ham             brentford
palace         21.75    18    1.21   tottenham, west ham  watford
leeds          20.75    19    1.09   burnley              villa

brentford      19.75    19    1.04   brighton, villa      united, southampton
burnley        21.75    21    1.04   leeds                tottenham, villa, watford

watford        19.25    20    0.96   tottenham            palace, burnley

norwich        14.75    19    0.78   arsenal              west ham


*brighton placed here due to relative difficulty of remaining schedule. Same for other teams slightly out of order (by points expected per game), with brighton being the most extreme case.

newcastle is expected to be essentially a below average midtable team in the second half. That would give them a slightly better than 50/50 chance of staying up.

538 essentially agrees with all of these, except for 538 absolutely hates United, dislikes Newcastle, and slightly likes Brighton and Brentford. (You could even argue those last two are within the margin of error.) Really, since betting odds are high on Newcastle with the expectation of signings, which 538 has no method of adjustment for, the only true difference of opinion is with United.

betting odds now views arsenal and spurs as essentially equal in quality going forward, with tottenham a hair ahead in the standings but possibly with slightly more variance in performance. 538 thinks arsenal is a little bit better than spurs.
   203. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 03, 2022 at 05:29 PM (#6059485)
538, betting odds, and the actual current table all agree on the top 11 teams. Betting odds thinks Villa is a bit better than Wolves, though 538 does not. Villa is the only team considered a top 10 team by betting odds (barely...) that is not currently in the top half of the table.

Interestingly, the xG table would put Brentford and Palace in the top 10 as well, but few systems appear to think what they are doing is sustainable. Leicester, Villa, and Wolves have not done well by xG, but are expected to be better in the second half.
   204. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 05, 2022 at 06:39 PM (#6059813)
wrong thread.
   205. spivey Posted: January 05, 2022 at 07:20 PM (#6059819)
Today's match between Tottenham and Chelsea did a good job of demonstrating the significant gap in depth quality between the two teams. Chelsea has better front line talent too, but their ability to use different formations, and their depth across the field is really impressive. It's not City level, but they may be the second deepest team in the world.
   206. Mefisto Posted: January 05, 2022 at 08:55 PM (#6059839)
I think depth will matter a lot, what with all the postponements and make-up games combined with cup ties.
   207. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 08, 2022 at 12:12 PM (#6060243)
6th tier Kidderminster will join 5th tier Boreham Wood in the fourth round of the FA cup.

Game of the day going on right now between Barnsley and 4th tier Barrow. 8 goals on 9 shots on target, including 5 goals in the last 15 minutes of the 90. Currently in extras. Barrow has scored 4 times after the 68th minute. And they have played with 10 men since the 38th minute!
   208. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 08, 2022 at 12:17 PM (#6060244)
Newcastle, Watford, and Burnley are the PL teams to go out so far. Those are the three on the bubble fighting to avoid relegation, so maybe they did not play too hard for the win so they could focus their efforts on the league.
   209. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 09, 2022 at 01:27 PM (#6060309)
FA Cup 4th round draw does not have any favorites against each other yet. Biggest matchups are Spurs/Brighton and Arsenal (if they win today)/Leicester.
   210. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 09, 2022 at 01:57 PM (#6060315)
Thigh backpass to the keeper (with keeper handling) is not a foul. I did not know that!
   211. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 09, 2022 at 02:12 PM (#6060318)
Arsenal goes out to Forest. That's the first team with any chance to win it to go out. I only saw 20 minutes of it, but Arsenal wasn't exactly inspired. The parts I saw were fairly even.
   212. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: January 09, 2022 at 03:30 PM (#6060330)
210 - Yeah I just assumed it was any part of the leg. The Arsenal players obviously seemed aware of the rule as well because they didn’t really make a fuss.
   213. spivey 2 Posted: January 09, 2022 at 04:55 PM (#6060336)
Just watched Villareal v Atletico. It was a fun match and Villareal probably deserved the win. Also had a goal from midfield which is always fun to watch live.

Battle for the 3rd and 4th spots in La Liga is interesting this year. Atletico and Barcelona are by no means guaranteed to get them.
   214. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 11, 2022 at 04:35 PM (#6060664)
It's past time to retire the notion that Brentford is any good this year. They had some excellent games at the start of the year, enough that should see them deservedly stay up. That's it though. You could argue they haven't played a good game since October.

538 has them as 5th worst in the league, ahead of only the teams scrapping to avoid relegation. They are not a good team.
   215. The Marksist Posted: January 12, 2022 at 10:04 AM (#6060762)
Brentford look like what we should have expected them to be: a team punching above its payroll in the Championship. Given their budget and approach, staying up should be seen as a hell of an achievement.
   216. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: January 12, 2022 at 11:56 AM (#6060786)
Madness at AFCON this morning. Ref blows for full time at 85 minutes in Mali-Tunisia. Then realizes his mistake, keeps the game going then at 89:47 blows for full time again. Players go to the dressing room, press conferences start, 45 minutes later teams are called back to the field. Tunisia (down 1-0) basically say '#### off" and don't come out. Game over again (apparently).
   217. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 12, 2022 at 12:51 PM (#6060793)
That's completely bonkers. I imagine it also undermined faith in the ref for how the rest of the game was called.
   218. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: January 12, 2022 at 01:02 PM (#6060796)
Scanning the Guardian's minute by minute the ref was already under some scrutiny it sounds like.
   219. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 13, 2022 at 04:26 PM (#6060979)
No Salah and no Mane, but the Liverpool team playing today is otherwise a strong one. This performance against 10-man Arsenal has been very lackluster. No shots on target even, and few high xG chances.

edit: ok that last Minamino chance should have been a goal, probably. Also not on target though.
   220. spivey Posted: January 14, 2022 at 10:19 AM (#6061039)
The EPL has opened pandora's box a bit with some of these postponements. They're postponing matches for reasons other than COVID now. This has already happened a couple of times, and there's talk it could happen to the NLD. I think Arsenal only has 1 or 2 players out with COVID, but with injuries, suspensions, AFCON, etc. they're down to 12 or 13 first team players. I don't know. I'm conflicted on this.

Part of me says, you've got a U23, U18, etc. squads. These guys are professionals, and even if you don't want them playing big minutes, you shouldn't be rewarded because Xhaka is suspended or you don't have enough injury cover. Also, sometimes 2 injuries to the "right" players can be more impactful than 6 injuries. Also understand that leagues and national teams are playing these guys so threadbare that injuries are going to happen, and forcing the matches will lead to players playing 85% which could lead to more injuries (though a lot of teams are likely already doing this).
   221. spivey Posted: January 14, 2022 at 10:23 AM (#6061040)
Regarding the AFCON ref, it sounds like he was suffering pretty severe heat stroke during the match and was taken to the hospital afterwards. He's also one of the most prominent/experienced refs in AFCON, having reffed a couple of WC matches.
   222. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 15, 2022 at 09:37 AM (#6061159)
Chelsea is out of the title chase now. They haven't played well enough to challenge for it this year, despite great hopes coming in to the season.
Liverpool still has a small chance, with an emphasis on small.

In the Championship, Blackburn's been on quite the run since the 7-0 drubbing by Fulham in November. (Fulham pulled another 7-0 against Reading just last week as well.) Tied for most points in the Championship now and getting close to a lock for at least the playoff.

Class of the second tier is still Fulham, though, with Bournemouth second. There's still a very good chance both will be promoted
   223. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 15, 2022 at 09:50 AM (#6061160)
Highest EPL leverage game of the weekend is about to kick off: relegation 6-pointer with Newcastle hosting Watford. Newcastle are significant favorites, being at home and now expected to be a better team in the second half. Chris Wood is starting.
   224. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: January 15, 2022 at 01:29 PM (#6061169)
Everton are such a shitshow right now. I can't see how Benitez is still the manager Monday morning but the problems are much much deeper than him. The entire organization is a complete mess. I described them to a friend this morning as ManU without the money. We don't have any kind of leadership, any kind of plan, it's just throwing people out there, spending where we can/will and hoping for the best. United have enough money that they can get a Ronaldo to paper over the cracks. I really don't want Everton to go down, and doubt we will, but man it feels like it needs to happen.
   225. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 15, 2022 at 02:11 PM (#6061173)
Yeah no way Everton should be in this situation, with their resources. They'll probably be fine this year ultimately but they are starting to make things interesting. Not doing much for the long term brand though, with this kind of year.

Speaking of Manchester United, they are still up but haven't played that well. The better side today, yes probably, but only by a little. Since Villa is considered a decent team and the game is on the road, that's not such a bad performance, but it's not exactly top 4 material either.

edit: heh. no longer up at all.
   226. Mefisto Posted: January 15, 2022 at 03:49 PM (#6061181)
United were arguably the better side for the first 35 minutes or so, but after that it was Villa. United's second goal was somewhat fortunate (Villa error) and you could argue that Villa should have won.

I don't get why Rangnick waited so long to make subs, nor why he made the ones he did.
   227. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 15, 2022 at 04:25 PM (#6061186)
Definitely the better side through the first 70 minutes, as minutes 30-70 were fairly even. (Not dominant, but better.) United did very poorly over the last 25 minutes though, outshot 7 - 1 or something and during that time giving up Villa's biggest chances of the game.
   228. The_Ex Posted: January 16, 2022 at 09:37 AM (#6061217)
I watched the united game yesterday. After the first 35 minutes United had no one to control the midfield and the match. The were out-possessed significantly by Villa and relied on good forwards to produce a goal from a fast break. When you look at the United team Bruno Fernandez is the only creative midfielder, Fred and Matic are good for the short passes. That lack on control is compounded by Dalot and Telles at full back making many poor passes. Basically they can't count on anyone holding the ball and managing the game. In some ways the are the opposite of Man City who are full of players who can possess and keep the ball.

I wonder what difference Pogba would make. With Van De Beek now a seeming flop at Man U, Juan Mata was the only other midfield option off the bench.
   229. Mefisto Posted: January 16, 2022 at 09:53 AM (#6061218)
I agree with 228 and would just add that Dalot isn't a very good defender either.
   230. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 16, 2022 at 10:22 AM (#6061221)
Leeds playing West Ham this well was not something I was expecting.
   231. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 16, 2022 at 01:53 PM (#6061230)
Latest betting odds:
winner
city         92

liverpool     6.5
chelsea       1
field         0.5

top 4
liverpool    98
chelsea      93

tottenham    34
arsenal      33.5
united       25

west ham     11

leicester     2.5
wolves        1.5
brighton      1
field         0.5

top 6
arsenal      73
tottenham    72
united       70
  
west ham     48

leicester    13.5
wolves       11

brighton      5.5
villa         4
field         3

relegation
norwich       84

watford       63
burnley       61.5
newcastle     49.5

everton       11.5
leeds         11
brentford      8.5

southampton    5
palace         4

villa          1
field          1


United is really slipping in the odds now. Everton is now most likely to be relegated after the bottom 4. Burnley/Watford relegation 6-pointer mid week.
   232. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 17, 2022 at 09:49 AM (#6061327)
Watford will have had Newcastle, Burnley, and Norwich, all in less than a week. That's a week that easily could make or break their season. Won't move the needle too much if they all end up in draws though.
   233. KronicFatigue Posted: January 17, 2022 at 10:50 AM (#6061338)
Everyone is rooting for Newcastle to be relegated, right?

I'm getting a bit frustrated with the /r/chelseafc subreddit. Lamenting about the title chances being over is getting old. Man City (especially being healthy) is a tough mountain to climb. Top 4 in the EPL should be the goal, and yeah, maybe occasionally everything will break right and you can win the league. But losing both wing backs is certainly not breaking right.
   234. SoSH U at work Posted: January 17, 2022 at 11:34 AM (#6061343)
Everyone is rooting for Newcastle to be relegated, right?


Not I.
   235. jmurph Posted: January 18, 2022 at 08:09 AM (#6061441)
Not I.
Me either, I've always had a soft spot for them despite or perhaps because of the buffoons who have generally been in charge. And I like Howe.
   236. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 18, 2022 at 08:42 AM (#6061447)
I am. Never had a soft spot for them, and certainly don't now.
   237. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 18, 2022 at 08:50 AM (#6061449)
Burnley/Watford postponed again. After today, Burnley will have played 6 fewer games than Chelsea!
   238. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 18, 2022 at 04:02 PM (#6061498)
Ghana out at AfCon after losing to... the Comoros Islands.
   239. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: January 18, 2022 at 04:42 PM (#6061502)
Things have gone pretty consistently downhill for Ghana since Suarez' save and Gyan's subsequent miss.
   240. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 18, 2022 at 04:52 PM (#6061503)
Pretty entertaining draw between Brighton and Chelsea.
   241. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 18, 2022 at 06:21 PM (#6061507)
Side note is that 538 has always been high on Brighton over the last 2+ years, but really likes them now. Currently ranked 19th in the world. By straight ELO they aren't even top 10 in the EPL.
   242. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 19, 2022 at 08:49 AM (#6061557)
Fulham can't stop scoring right now: 70 in 26 games. Mitrovic has 27 goals in 25 games.
   243. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 19, 2022 at 01:05 PM (#6061575)
Spot betting yellow card for an Arsenal player is being investigated.

Yay for sports betting. Well if Jake Paul can be a boxer, maybe this is our future.

edit: rumors are that it was Xhaka against Leeds. Got booked for time wasting with a 3 goal lead. Could be just a rumor.
   244. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: January 19, 2022 at 01:31 PM (#6061579)
I'm not sure what a 4A player is in soccer but I would propose calling it a Mitrovic. Dude is just not a Premiership player but is an absolute beast in the Championship.

Championship: 106 games - 69 goals
Premiership: 104 games - 24 goals
   245. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 19, 2022 at 03:13 PM (#6061599)
It's been a fun first half in Leicester. Spurs were having a bit of a nightmare before that goal by Kane, with almost all the possession and tons of shots from close, couple cleared off the line, but nothing to show for it except a 1-goal deficit. Leicester has had a couple big chances, so it's not all one-sided.

Hard to see Spurs not scoring again in this one. The one goal they did get was terrible defending by Söyüncü, but it was hardly undeserved overall.
   246. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 19, 2022 at 03:42 PM (#6061605)
On the other side of the coin, Manchester United looked terrible in their first half, getting outplayed, outshot, out-everything. They had a couple moments going forward, but overall it's been very bad, in particular on defense. They are still missing three of their starting back 4 though, but still.
   247. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 19, 2022 at 04:27 PM (#6061607)
Wild finish! Spurs were far the better team today, but you would never expect it to play out like this. Spurs looked a little shaky on defense today, giving up a lot of chances in the end.

United look much better in the second half, and will likely win now.
   248. jmurph Posted: January 19, 2022 at 04:37 PM (#6061609)
Leicester just got beat with two passes, after kicking off, in stoppage time, with like 7 men forward. What in the name of god were they doing?
   249. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 19, 2022 at 04:51 PM (#6061613)
United is going to win, and they played a decent second half. Overall though, considering their very poor first half they were quite lucky to win. They still aren't playing well enough to deserve a top 4 spot, and except for briefly here and there, haven't all year.
   250. spivey Posted: January 19, 2022 at 05:01 PM (#6061618)
Tielemans is a good player but that pass that gave the ball away is really unforgivable.
   251. spivey Posted: January 19, 2022 at 08:24 PM (#6061641)
I don't understand why managers don't cost more? I think we've talked about compensation when they change clubs is much less than it should be. Conte took a squad that had relegation level advanced stats and has turned them into like the 10th best team in the world. This is ####### absurd. I love this man.
   252. Textbook Editor Posted: January 19, 2022 at 09:06 PM (#6061644)
Leicester just got beat with two passes, after kicking off, in stoppage time, with like 7 men forward. What in the name of god were they doing?


I can see going for it to try to get a ball into the box in the last 30 seconds, but if you do that you have to keep one speedy guy back just in case the ball comes back at you in a 1v1... And LC didn't. (I also think had the GK come out immediately and fast that he might have gotten to the ball first but, even still... it took one hell of a finish off the post to win it. !@#$ happens.)

An absolute gift 3 points though. From the reactions afterward, you almost could see them kicking on from this and running away with 4th by sweeping their games in hand... but of course the most likely scenario is they just get pasted this Sunday against Chelsea and it's all doom and gloom again.

Conte really does seem to be the miracle worker he was claimed to be...
   253. Miserable, Non-Binary Candy is all we deserve CoB Posted: January 19, 2022 at 11:00 PM (#6061656)
but of course the most likely scenario is they just get pasted this Sunday against Chelsea

Against *this* Chelsea team, running on fumes and lacking in confidence right now?
Now, I'm not sure I believe with any confidence in Spurs' backline right now (I never thought I'd long for Eric Dier to return again), but I just can't see them getting "pasted".
   254. jmurph Posted: January 20, 2022 at 12:20 PM (#6061709)
I keep hearing/reading things like "what's going on at Chelsea, why is everyone so unhappy?" like we don't know that it's because everyone who interacts with Tuchel seems to find him to be pretty miserable to work with? Perhaps one more tantrum on the sideline when his players make a mistake will do the trick!
   255. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 20, 2022 at 12:55 PM (#6061713)
Chelsea is at home, and considered the better team, so they are fairly big favorites (58% win, 23.5% draw, 18.5% loss). It's definitely expected to be competitive though.

538 thinks a Chelsea win is only 50/50. 538's system has notorious (ok, according to me) recency bias, so it's not a surprise they are more favorable to Spurs than betting odds.
   256. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 20, 2022 at 01:15 PM (#6061717)
Algeria had the best ELO coming into Afcon, and were holders. They didn't even make it our of the group stage, where only 8 of the 24 teams were eliminated. That's very bad. Don't know if there were any mitigating factors.
   257. jmurph Posted: January 21, 2022 at 05:08 PM (#6061886)
Losing 3-0 to Norwich seems... bad.
   258. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 21, 2022 at 05:41 PM (#6061892)
It's a terrible, horrible, no good result. They actually didn't play that badly though and the first goal was very much against the run of play. At worst with that performance you would have expected a draw most games. Red card at the end didn't make things any easier.

Still, it was a must win game at home against the bottom team in the league. Even a draw would have been a bad result.

For their part, good on Norwich for making things at the bottom of the table a tad more interesting. They are still the team expected to finish with the least points in the league despite now being out of the bottom 3. Games in hand for others mostly, but also they are still pegged as the weakest team in the league.
   259. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 22, 2022 at 08:21 AM (#6061964)
No shots from Everton in the first half.

Digne goes down from getting hit in the head by a bottle thrown by a fan at the end of the half, when Villa scored. Seems ok after a spell lying on the turf, but that really is lousy.
   260. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 22, 2022 at 09:01 AM (#6061972)
Second half is completely different so far. Villa with only one shot and Everton dominating. No goals for Everton though.
   261. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 22, 2022 at 10:50 AM (#6061986)
Lots of running around but few chances in the ManU/WestHam game. ManU had all the bet possession, but few good shots in the end. They just missed connecting on a couple chances. WestHam had no shots at all.
   262. spivey Posted: January 23, 2022 at 09:48 AM (#6062087)
Very big match in the Eredivisie today. Currently tied 1-1. PSV just scored off a press and Mario Gotze did a nice job turning the defender just by letting the ball run.

Ajax has a GD coming into the game of 59-4 and is probably at the top of the discussion for best Eredivisie sides of the last 20 years. But they are down a point in the table, and while you would strongly favor them over PSV (who has a GD around 25), a win for PSV would be huge. Both are big favorites against almost every other team (Feyenoord is good too).
   263. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 23, 2022 at 12:49 PM (#6062103)
Looked like a push off by the goal scorer on the defender just before the free kick was made. Normally they would be pretty unlikely to give that as a foul, and they didn't here either. 2-0. It probably grates for Spurs fans though, due to the way they called off the Kane goal for something a little similar.

One thing you could say is both calls were made on the field and both grey areas, so its not really VAR's place as currently conceived to second guess the calls.
   264. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 23, 2022 at 03:15 PM (#6062116)
EPL expected team quality for second half of the season, ​by betting odds
team       pts. exp.  games   /game  yet to play          played twice
city           35.25    15    2.35   --                   chelsea, arsenal, leicester, southampton
liverpool      34.75    16    2.17   --                   chelsea, palace, brentford   
chelsea        30.75    14    2.19   --                   city, liverpool, tottenham, brighton, villa

united         27.75    16    1.73   brighton             west ham, wolves, villa, newcastle
tottenham      29.75    18    1.65   brighton, burnley    chelsea, palace, watford      
arsenal        26.75    17    1.57   wolves               city, burnley, norwich

west ham       21.25    15    1.42   --                   united, palace, southampton, leeds
villa          25.75    17    1.51   leeds, burnley       chelsea, united, everton, brentford 
brighton       20.75    16    1.30   united, tottenham    chelsea, leicester, everton, palace, brentford     
leicester      24.75    18    1.38   everton              city, brighton

wolves         20.75    17    1.22   arsenal              united, southampton, brentford
everton        20.75    18    1.15   leicester, newcastle brighton, villa, norwich
newcastle      19.75    17    1.16   everton              united, leeds, watford
palace         20.25    16    1.27   watford              liverpool, tottenham, west ham, brighton 
southampton    19.25    16    1.20   --                   city, west ham, wolves             

leeds          17.25    17    1.01   villa                west ham, newcastle, burnley
brentford      16.25    15    1.08   --                   liverpool, brighton, villa, wolves  
    
burnley        19.25    20    0.96   spurs,villa,watford  arsenal, leeds
watford        16.25    18    0.90   palace, burnley      tottenham, newcastle, norwich

norwich        11.75    16    0.73   --                   arsenal, everton, watford


Some teams have harder remaining schedules than others. They are ordered by expected points per game, roughly adjusted for remaining schedule strength.
   265. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 23, 2022 at 04:02 PM (#6062122)
Latest betting odds, going into the break:
winner
city         87
liverpool    12
chelsea       1

top 4
liverpool    98
chelsea      93

united       35
tottenham    35
arsenal      27

west ham      8
wolves        2
leicester     1
field         1

top 6
united       79.5
tottenham    76.5
arsenal      70.5
  
west ham     39

wolves       14
leicester     7.5
brighton      5
villa         5
field         3

relegation
norwich       76.5
watford       70.5
burnley       64.5

newcastle     39

everton       15.5
leeds         13
brentford     12

southampton    3.5
palace         3.5
villa          1
field          1
   266. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 23, 2022 at 08:58 PM (#6062169)
updated 17-team mini-league standings.
                                           non-pen xGD/90
          games  points   GD/90        fbref    538   understat
arsenal     17    36      1.18          .73     .85     .89
tottenham   16    32       .38          .60     .79     .61 

palace      18    21       .17          .16     .30     .32
man united  19    37       .68          .23     .21     .28
west ham    20    31       .45          .20     .22     .28  

brighton    18    27       .17          .09     .17     .18
wolves      18    33       .28          .09     .17     .17

leicester   16    23       .19          .24    -.01     .01
   267. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: January 23, 2022 at 09:29 PM (#6062176)
It simultaneously feels like Chelsea were significantly superior to Tottenham, and also the reffing screwed Tottenham.
   268. spivey Posted: January 23, 2022 at 10:21 PM (#6062185)
Chelsea are just way better than Tottenham. I think Conte is a better manager than Tuchel, but Chelsea has world class players all over, and a lot of their depth guys would walk into the starting lineup.

For CB, they've got Silva, Christensen, Rudiger, and Azpi. They've got like 6 very good (or at least expensive) attackers across like 3 or 4 spots.

I think this league is shaping up to where it's:

City
<big gap>
Liverpool
<small gap>
Chelsea
<huge gap>
Arsenal/Tottenham/United, who are all about equal

I guess you can put West Ham there too, if you want.
   269. The_Ex Posted: January 24, 2022 at 07:44 AM (#6062194)
The relegation race is getting interesting. Newcastle and Norwich seem to have improved. Newcastle are likely to bring in more players before the end of January. Watford have not improved but there is a chance they will have a new manager by the end of the month. Its hard to know what to make of Burnley, although the owners dont seem to want to spend money. Leeds and Everton are being dragged down and Brentford are struggling right now with a thin squad. Could Christian Erickson make a difference?

Looking at the odds I would have Brentford with shorter odds to go down with Burnley and Newcastle close to the same odds. But the bookies are usually very accurate.
   270. Bret Sabermatrician Posted: January 24, 2022 at 03:06 PM (#6062270)
If it wasn't for the plucky underdog/insurmountable odds story, this Comoros-Cameroon game would be insanely boring.
   271. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: January 27, 2022 at 07:39 PM (#6062801)
####### EXPIRATION DATES!

Anyway, the US really needs to remember that there is a left side of the field.
   272. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: January 27, 2022 at 08:13 PM (#6062805)
US LEAD! Doing a much better job using both sides of the field and Weah beats his man coming from the right and the ball pops to Antonee Robinson who was pinching in from left back and coolly finishes. Robinson has been very good so far in the second half, US clearly making a concerted effort to get him more involved.
   273. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 27, 2022 at 08:54 PM (#6062811)
The game seems pretty sloppy. El Salvador isn't a match for the USMNT, but I wish the US looked a little crisper. Also I'm tired and the game made me very sleepy.

Mexico scored twice and is now leading, and Canada is leading. Unless Panama wins tomorrow the top 3 spots are basically locked up.

4th in this group is very likely to be Panama, but could be Costa Rica. New Zealand could potentially beat either one of those teams in the one-game playoff. It would be just the third time for them at the WC finals. Panama has only gone once before, but that was the last one, in 2018.
   274. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: January 28, 2022 at 08:36 AM (#6062840)
US were a little underwhelming. I'm getting some Bob Bradley vibes from Berhalter, the slow starts are something I remember from Bradley's tenure (especially in the 2010 World Cup). I'm not sure if he deserves praise for his ability and willingness to adapt at halftime or criticism for his failure to get it right at the start.

Last night I think El Salvador did a nice job just bedding in and being organized. They did a nice job of parking the bus but at the same time really created nothing, they had two good chances all night and one of them was a first half giveaway by the US. I never had a "oh El Salvador might nick this" feeling at any point. One thing I thought Berhalter got right was he really wanted everything to run through McKennie. It seemed like basically once we got possession the goal was to get the ball to him and go from there.

Pulisic had a bad night before being pulled off. He seemed to be playing himself into trouble trying to do too much with the ball. Weah and Robinson were both really good and I thought Adams-Zimmerman/Richards did a good job just keeping things cool. One reason El Salvador never threatened is they never got the chance. Ferreira didn't do anything for me, he missed two good chances in the first half. One was a bit tricky but one absolutely should have been scored.
   275. The Marksist Posted: January 28, 2022 at 09:13 AM (#6062846)
Agreed that overall the US was in control, but that they didn't look great. Pulisic looked off, and Musah seemed to drift out of the game a fair bit. Thought Adams played very well off the ball, and McKennie was good. This team is still in search of a striker who can cause problems in the box, though.
   276. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 28, 2022 at 06:09 PM (#6062944)
Brazil and Argentina are in the WC, and Ecuador is very close.

Enormous wins for Peru and Uruguay this round, who are making their case for the last 1.5 spots. Bolivia probably needs to turn the game right now around to have any chance. It's not looking very likely at the moment. Finishing 4th is much better than 5th this year. 5th place will very likely take on either Australia or Japan in a 1-off (I think). That is very much not a gimme.

Colombia and even less so Chile are both still in it, but it's not looking too good for them.
   277. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: January 29, 2022 at 08:05 AM (#6062980)
Colombia hasn't scored a goal in the last 6 qualifiers. Four 0-0 draws and two 1-0 defeats.
   278. Mefisto Posted: January 29, 2022 at 02:26 PM (#6063006)
Adama Traore to Barca has to be one of the weirdest transfers I've seen. I can't think of a player who's less "Barcelona".
   279. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 30, 2022 at 04:59 PM (#6063066)
I was only able to see parts of the second half, but the end of this Canada/USMNT game has been quite exciting.

edit: US was playing very aggressively over the last 20 minutes. Had some chances but also gave up some huge ones the other way. Canada finally scored again deep in stoppage time. 2-0. Canada is probably favorites to top the octagonal now, and have all but punched their ticket to WC 2022! Well done.
   280. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: January 30, 2022 at 05:46 PM (#6063070)
It was a strange performance by the US. I thought they were generally the better team but at the same time they really didn’t create a lot of good chances. It never really felt like they were going to score though that may have just been frustration.

The goal that mattered was such a dreadful goal to give up. Turner got no distance on a goal kick right up the middle, I think the cold was a factor on that (no one seemed to get great distance on their goal kicks). Then the US just let Canada come down the middle and at the decisive moment Miles Robinson slipped and that was that.

I think it’s fair to say the US has not been strong this round. With that said a loss at Canada is not a bad thing in the big picture. Win the two home games against Honduras and Panama and we are on 24 points which should get us through with room to spare.
   281. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 30, 2022 at 06:19 PM (#6063080)
Yeah almost certainly they will be fine. Put that Panama game March 27 on your schedule though, as it's very possible they will need at least a draw in that one to stay ahead of Panama.
   282. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 30, 2022 at 07:58 PM (#6063100)
Mexico only managed a draw against Costa Rica, in an Azteca with almost no fans. Probably makes little difference in the grand scheme of things. They have Panana next again without fans, and another draw there, or loss, and things start to get interesting.
   283. jmurph Posted: January 31, 2022 at 07:35 AM (#6063156)
With that said a loss at Canada is not a bad thing in the big picture.

Isn't the actual big picture that they're yet again looking fairly unimpressive in one of the least competitive qualifying groups on the planet?
   284. Miserable, Non-Binary Candy is all we deserve CoB Posted: January 31, 2022 at 11:06 AM (#6063175)
Reports in that Dele to Everton is agreed.
Sigh.
   285. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 31, 2022 at 11:44 AM (#6063188)
Eriksen for Brentford! I hope he does well and am very happy to see him play again. I don't know how elevated his risk is, but he is (presumably) doing thing he loves most and only has a few good years left. It has to be a lot safer than a lot of other sporting activities willingly taken on by all kinds of people, professional and otherwise, including pretty much the risk everyone playing american football takes on a weekly basis.

In less happier news, Man U now has a second player (that we know of...) who by all rights should probably be convicted of serious sexual crimes.

   286. jmurph Posted: January 31, 2022 at 11:56 AM (#6063191)
Everton got van de Beek, too. I imagine that will be a much more impactful signing than Alli, who has looked toasty, but maybe a change of scenery will be good for him.

Not sure if anyone mentioned that Lampard has officially taken over at Everton, too.
   287. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 31, 2022 at 12:05 PM (#6063193)
Yeah I'm hoping van de Beek gets his moment. He definitely got the short end of the stick at United, and he deserves a chance. Would be fun to see Alli do well too.

How much help does Everton realistically need right now, from the winter window? I guess they don't want to get relegated, but that was pretty unlikely anyway. They should really be thinking about next year. Apparently they have no option to get van de Beek permanently, but do have something permanent for Alli.
   288. Mefisto Posted: January 31, 2022 at 12:09 PM (#6063194)
I think Lampard is a mistake for Everton, though I don't have a good sense of their other options (Rooney? Yikes!). Still, they should be good enough to avoid relegation assuming no bad run of injuries.

I hope van de Beek does well. Even the United fans knew the club screwed him.
   289. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 31, 2022 at 12:13 PM (#6063195)
USMNT, Mexico, and Canada all have almost identical ELO right now, by eloratings.net. Canada has been playing so well over the last year. Of course, you could legitimately argue that the USMNT should be significantly better than Canada, and also better than past US teams, based on personnel. They haven't been playing that way yet. The WC is still a year away though, and playing well there is what will actually matter considering it's very likely they will make it through qualifying.
   290. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 31, 2022 at 04:32 PM (#6063229)
Funny twitter exchange about the US team losing to a team with a keeper wearing sweatpants, while one of our own didn't play (Weah) due to his non-vax status:

No absolutely, he hasn’t done anything wrong at all and naturally each country has their rules. But nothing is as infuriating as a goalkeeper wearing pants.


(The implication being that a GK wearing sweatpants is, quite correctly, against the rules in most countries.)
   291. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 01, 2022 at 08:52 AM (#6063317)
Japan beat Saudi Arabia this morning, but even if Saudi Arabia loses to Australia at home in March, which isn't that likely, Saudi Arabia only needs to beat China away to get a WC spot. That means one of Japan or Australia would finish third in the group and at best (assuming they beat third in the other group) would be in the playoff in Qatar against Conmebol 5th place.

Australia hosts Japan in March and needs a win to get the automatic qualification spot over Japan. Even that wouldn't be enough if they lost to Saudi Arabia in their other game.
   292. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 01, 2022 at 10:56 PM (#6063438)
Ecuador scored in the second minute and spent the rest of the game rolling around on the ground after every kick. One of the most obnoxious displays of time wasting you will ever see. Also sad is that they were the better team for most of the game anyway, on the road.

Thankfully, Peru did tie it up in the 68th minute, but that didn't stop the time wasting. Ecuador really only needed a point out of this game. Peru finished the stronger of the two teams, but it was too little too late and it ended in a draw.

Ecuador is now virtually assured of advancing, while Uruguay and Peru are pretty much neck and neck for 4th/5th, and they play each other as well. Chile with the big win at altitude (I'm guessing) is still just hanging around, along with Colombia.
   293. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 02, 2022 at 12:25 PM (#6063490)
The US is playing Honduras in frigid Minnesota tonight. I hear complaints that they were trying to force Honduras to play in the cold to gain an advantage, but I don't know if there is any truth to that. They've had a policy of often scheduling home games in regions where they were likely to get better fan support versus the opposition, and that usually has meant places in the Midwest, which are often cold this time of year.

Maybe they should have thought about this more carefully this time and not scheduled Minnesota in the dead of winter, but my guess is when they scheduled it they just thought having the crowd was more important than the change of unreasonable weather. Hopefully that doesn't backfire with nobody able to really play well 'cause it's so damn cold.
   294. jmurph Posted: February 02, 2022 at 12:55 PM (#6063493)
Having just spent 7 years living in Minneapolis, I can assure you there wasn't a chance of unreasonable weather in St. Paul in January, it was in fact basically a certainty. The internet tells me average temps are in the teens, lows below that. It's just breathtaking stupidity, if the players refused to play I would applaud them.
   295. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 02, 2022 at 01:26 PM (#6063500)
ok all fair. That said, I still don't think they tried to play in bad weather to gain a weather advantage or punish Honduras with bad weather, but just to get a crowd advantage. It does seem pretty stupid though.

Average high in Minneapolis this time of year is 23 degrees or so (edit: some sites say closer to 25), and average low 8 degrees. I'm guessing a 7:30 kickoff time you can reasonably expect something below 20 degrees a lot of the time. Kickoff at around 2 degrees though is probably quite a bit worse than expected.

edit: tonight is basically going to match the coldest day on record for an average year in Minnesota, so it's quite a bit colder than a normal midwinter evening. Only 3 years out of the last dozen have had days significantly colder.

edit2: don't get me wrong, it's really freaking cold! I wouldn't want to play in this either, and wouldn't be shocked if it's so cold the US only manages a 0-0 draw as no one can play real soccer. That said, I just doubt the planners when they scheduled this said let's stick it to Honduras by making them play in 20 degree weather.
   296. jmurph Posted: February 02, 2022 at 02:13 PM (#6063507)
I don't think we're arguing but just want to add: 2, 8, 20, 23, 25 is a list of temperatures at which it is stupid to plan for an outdoor night game of soccer in the winter in a country that contains states by the name of California, Florida, Arizona, Texas, etc.

Last February 11-15 the temperature remained below zero in Minneapolis for 116 consecutive hours. Almost exactly two years before that there was a 78 hour stretch ending February 1 in which it never got above 0. It's a delightful place with outrageously cold winters, there were very few scenarios in which tonight's game was going to be played in a reasonable temperature for people to run around in shorts and tshirts.
   297. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 02, 2022 at 07:43 PM (#6063591)
Goal! Let's hope McKennie doesn't end up with a concussion from heading such a cold ball. More seriously, really pretty cross and goal though. Full credit to the USMNT there. It's exactly what they needed on this evening. I could have seen them getting desperate and losing their discipline the longer a 0-0 game went into the cold night.
   298. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 02, 2022 at 07:55 PM (#6063593)
Any win is big, and playing well in the cold is also nice. We shouldn't forget that Honduras is terrible right now--proven themselves as the worst team in the octagonal. El Salvador has been a mildly pleasant surprise but still not very good, and Jamaica has been about what you might have expected.
   299. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 02, 2022 at 08:06 PM (#6063594)
Costa Rica has not been good for the last couple years, and probably shouldn't have even as many points as they do in qualifying. They've been outshot, often by huge margins, in practically every game they've played in the last couple years. In the very few games I saw them it wasn't like they had higher quality chances than their opponents, either. They do have a very good GK.

1 shot today in the first half, in a must-win at Jamaica.
   300. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 02, 2022 at 08:11 PM (#6063595)
Two poorly defended set plays and two goals for the US. Second one was quite a bit uglier, but we'll take it!
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