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Sunday, November 28, 2021
OT Soccer Thread - Domestic Cups, Congested Fixture Lists and Winter Breaks
Champions League Group Stage End - December 7/8
MLS Cup - December 11
Champions League Knockout Stage Draw - December 13
Women’s Champions League Group Stage End - December 15
One Year to World Cup Final - December 18
Women’s Champions League Knockout Stage Draw - December 20
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CONCACAF World Cup Qualifiers Window - January 27-February 2
EFL Cup Final - February 27
Jose is an Absurd Sultan
Posted: November 28, 2021 at 10:39 AM | 517 comment(s)
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Yeah, when Dortmund are bad, they are really, really bad.
Barca are just a mess. Newymar, Messi and Suarez are impossible to replace, but there is a lack of high-end talent. Adama and Memphis are all decent players, but Barca should be aiming a little higher. I guess Fati, Torres, Garcia and Pedri are just a bit too young to be relied upon just yet, but to assume they're the 'next generation' and will bring Barca back to the top seems presumptuous as well.
538 had it as a neutral event for quality of both teams, and the betting odds haven't changed at all for Bayern to advance: still 91% or so.
The only big surprises of the week were the two already mentioned: Rangers away over Dortmnund and Sheriff over Braga, plus a third: Celtics losing to Bode at home.
For a hard luck team, look no further than Vitesse losing away to Vienna despite dominating the stats. Vienna went down to 10 players in the 65th minute when they had a 2-0 lead already, so maybe there were mitigating factors.
Stated in a typically British understated fashion. Well done.
You wouldn't expect the scoreline to hold up, but Norwich has the shock lead off a deflected shot away to Liverpool. At like 3.5% to win coming in, that would be the upset of the season.
edit: already 1-1. and now 2-1.
I didn't see the Everton game, but it looks like they were completely embarrassed at Southampton. Brentford was no match for Arsenal in London, but that was expected. (I guess they got a late goal after doing almost nothing offensively all day.)
Of course, betting odds has had them as the top 6 teams going forward all year, without exception, but 538's ratings are much more backward looking so are more sensitive to recent performance on the field.
(mild exaggeration)
Oh well--offside, game still on though. Should be an interesting last 15 minutes.
edit: and they had none like this last year after their very early struggles against Leeds. They did give up more xG in a few games late last year against United and Newcastle, and very early against Leicester, but that was all due to giving up a bunch of penalties.
City is still about 80% chance to win. Liverpool the other 20%. Chelsea maybe 0.5%.
If Liverpool win their game in hand they're only 3 points back with 12 matches to play. Including one at City. Certainly doesn't feel like an 80-20 outcome to me!
(I understand you're just reading odds, I'm not arguing with you personally.)
Meow!
Of the bottom 3 Norwich is pretty much gone and I like Burney quite a bit more than Watford. So, it's really a matter of whether Burnley can put together a few results and one of those teams above them goes into a swoon. It's not that unlikely.
Burnley hosts Spurs in a midweek makeup game this week. Spurs are just over 50/50 to win.
Yes there is. I’d bet on City without much question but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a race. The fact is that right now Liverpool control their own destiny. Win the game in hand, win the game in Manchester in six weeks and there is your six points. Now of course City will be home for that one needing just a draw and City are better than Liverpool so probably should be favored to take all three points but saying there isn’t a race is kind of silly IMHO. It reminds me a bit of the “it’s over” proclamations about the 2011 Red Sox. There are a lot of ways this can go Liverpool’s way that don’t require all kinds of machinations.
Reffing was fine overall but somehow City escaped cards, despite the usual tactical fouling.
That said, 21% chance for Liverpool is certainly not nothing, and is much better than the 12% they had coming into this weekend. It's also better than Liverpool had coming into the year, which was around 15%. I think this is the first time that's been the case since the calendar year started.
EPL title odds:
The biggest difference now is Burnley, which betting odds hates as compared to 538.
The other teams with the biggest current difference are Arsenal, Tottenham, Wolves, and Villa. Betting odds likes Tottenham (understandable) and Villa (less so) and dislikes Wolves (also understandable) and Arsenal (probably a little less so).
The two that are the biggest mystery to me from the betting odds perspective are Villa and Burnley. I can easily understand where the others are coming from but I really don't get why betting odds thinks Villa is any better than 10th or 11th in the league, and why it has Burnley as solidly relegation level and not a step above.
Bayern were terrible at home in the first half against bottom dwellers Greuther Furth. Reminiscent of the Leipzig game. against the same team.
Potentially there's an adjustment period for the EPL especially for teams that have not been in the EPL for many years and play a bit of a different style, which probably applies to all the above teams, though some a bit more than others.
Long story short--this Leeds team is going backwards and Bielsa's style really seem to have both a ceiling and some vulnerabilities that teams have learned to exploit ruthlessly. They probably won't get relegated this year but I don't like their long-term prospects under Bielsa.
Such a Jekyll and Hyde team...
Relegation all of a sudden got a little interesting.
betting odds 538 Manchester City 91 (87) 91 (81) Liverpool 85 (77) 85 (74) Chelsea 78 (78) 77 (73) Arsenal Points 65 (62) 67 (60) Manchester United 65 (74) 64 (68) Tottenham 65 (60) 63 (60) West Ham United 58 (50) 57 (50) Wolverhampton 57 (43) 58 (46) Brighton 50 (46) 50 (51) Southampton 48 (41) 49 (43) Leicester City 47 (59) 49 (57) Aston Villa 47 (49) 45 (50) Crystal Palace 43 (39) 43 (38) Everton 39 (53) 38 (50) Leeds United 38 (54) 38 (50) Brentford 38 (38) 39 (38) Newcastle United 38 (39) 36 (44) Burnley 33 (39) 36 (41) Watford 31 (34) 31 (36) Norwich City 27 (35) 28 (37)Betting odds has only been slightly better than 538 to this point. Much better at the top of the table and much worse midtable. 538 really underprojected the top 6 teams this year, with the notable exception of Manchester United.
Neither system did that well on the midtable teams, but 538 was better (so far) on every one of them except Villa. Betting odds were a tad better on teams projected at the bottom of the table.
By betting odds, Manchester United was considered only a tad worse than Liverpool coming into the year. Both teams have been among the bigger movers in opposite directions (by betting odds).
Biggest surprises thus far though have been the other 3 teams that just played today, and also Everton. Wolves are way, way up on their expectation, but Leicester, Leeds, and Everton are way, way down.
Going forward both betting odds and 538 project about the same number of points (1044). At the beginning of the season betting odds projected 1057 or so, about 1/2 a point per team more than 538.
There are 380 games in an EPL season. Draws are normally a bit less than 25% of games on average. 25% draws yields 1045 points in a season, while 20% draws yield 1064 points. So 538's projection actually was higher than historical average for recent years.
244 games played so far, with 65 draws. That 26.6% would be the highest in a number of years, so was not easily foreseeable. Both betting odds and 538 have projected 31 draws in the last 136 games, or about 22.8%. Incidentally, 22.8% is just slightly more than betting odds had predicted for the whole year coming in, so it's 538 that has converged to historical averages and converged to betting odds going forward, and not the other way around. What seems to be happening is that 538 predicted a narrower range of team talent, and thus more draws, than was predicted by betting odds.
edit: over the last 7 years the EPL has averaged 23.7% draws. Over the last 5 years it has averaged 22.6%.
This article says St. Petersburg was chosen for the 2021 final back in September 2019.
And yes, they should pull it from St. Petersburg now, and maybe they actually will in the likely event we end up having a war.
I had calls all through the games today and didn't see even one minute of action. I'm hoping that doesn't happen tomorrow! Looks like Villarreal might have been the better team at home, but a 1-1 draw is not ideal. Juve might skate through after all.
The three English teams to play so far are now virtual locks for the next round. Glad Pulisic got a goal.
We'll see what happens in a month when the US plays the qualifiers.
Atleti is a very hard team to root for. I love watching teams with different styles, but they are so obnoxious even on a good day.
538 loves Burnley right now, and has them as less likely to be relegated than Newcastle, Everton, and Leeds. Speaking of Leeds, I'm not watching the game but it appears to be a slaughter un Liverpool. This team is bad right now.
Benfica drew level again. 2-2 would be a neutral even in that tie since Benfica is at home.
Realistically there are only 4 or 5 teams that can win the UCL. None of the teams playing today are among them.
That club is going to be lucky if they're still in the Premier League in five years.
United are now 63% or so to win, which is up from where they were before. Ajax came into the game at about 79% (a bit higher than where they were in December) and are still there now.
It would be interesting to know what exactly is different about the chances they've been giving up, if anything, since it's not showing up in the xG numbers.
One major difference is Oblak. He was way out of position on the United goal today, and only has saved 50% of shots in the league this year, after averaging over 80% since coming to Atleti in 2014. That's shocking. By FBRef's advanced GK stats he's not really facing harder shots, he's simply fallen off a cliff. He averaged +8 on post-shot xG for the previous 4 years, but is at -10 this year in 2/3 of a season. That's an average difference of 15 goals versus prior years through 2/3 of a season. Subtract 15 goals from Atleti this year and they'd be second in the league on goals against, at just 19 given up. No idea how much that reflects reality, as I've rarely seen Oblak play recently.
Combine that with regressing penalties conceded this year just a bit (Atleti has given up a very high 6 already, whereas Sevilla has given up just 2 and Barca 0) and Atleti would actually be best in the league in actual goals allowed, not just expected goals allowed.
What does this mean? Not sure really, but my guess is Atleti's defense is not really suddenly that much worse than it has been in recent years. Knowing United, I doubt they will make Atleti look silly back in Manchester and it should be a struggle at best.
Atleti has been quite a bit worse in the Champions League than they've been in LA Liga this year. Part of that is probably that La Liga is just down across the board versus other leagues this year, and it's showing up in the performance of all it's teams in Europe.
On the subsequent free kick/cross Leipzig had a great chance from close and it was hit well but right at the keeper, so he redeemed himself a little bit. Almost a disaster though.
Sid Lowe was talking about this on today's Football Weekly. He said there seems something "off" about Oblak but can't pinpoint it. He made the point that while he hasn't seen every game Atleti have played he doesn't remember Oblak ever making one of those "oh my god how did he mess that up" kind of plays but he just seems a step behind on everything.
Just got a penalty called on the keeper at the very corner of the box, but it was saved! Rebound put back in anyway. And the keeper was off his line anyway! Hasn't been a great game for the keeper: Matthew Ryan (who I never heard of, but turns out to be Australian).
edit: he was Brighton's starter a few years ago but has been a backup since, in Brighton, Arsenal, and now Sociedad.
I think it is only a red if it is denying a clear goal-scoring opportunity. Otherwise treated the same as any other player committing a hand ball. But I could be wrong, would have to look it up.
Only real upset so far over two legs has been Celtic losing to Bodø/Glimt.
Congrats to Rangers! Only the second real upset so far, with their win over Dortmnud. Sheriff can still upset Braga.
Annual review of team with a better shot at CL next year via Europa than the league. We have 1! West Ham currently has a better shot at winning Europa than finishing top 4 in the EPL. Frankfurt too, slightly better, though I tend to think there's an implicit cutoff once you get below about 5%.
Sevilla vs. West Ham United
Atalanta vs. Bayer Leverkusen
FC Porto vs. Lyon
Real Betis vs. Eintracht Frankfurt
Barcelona vs. Galatasaray
RB Leipzig vs. Spartak Moscow
Braga vs. AS Monaco
Rangers vs. Red Star Belgrade
Leicester City vs Rennes
Marseille vs Basel
Vitesse vs Roma
Bodø/Glimt vs AZ
PSV Eindhoven vs Copenhagen
Partizan vs Feyenoord
Slavia Prague vs LASK
PAOK vs Gent
Europa Conference
Priorities here are way out of whack if this gives Abramovich "no shortage of leverage in the U.K."
edit: Leeds at this moment is exactly 2/3 of the way through the season (25 1/3 games). They've given up 59 goals, pretty much even on a rate basis with the 89 given up by Derby in 07-08, a record for a 38 game season. Swindon Town in 93-94 has them beat on a per game basis still (100 in 42).
Teams for the most part are have been very happy to play against Leeds, knowing they may get stretched at times but having every reason to believe the openness of the game is going to help them more than Leeds in the end. It's fun to watch Leeds play but I don't see a future for this style.
Norwich has also given up 8(!!) penalties to 5 for Leeds, so Norwich is just a hair worse on xGA (undertat) per game.
Leeds fare even worse on FBRef's version of xG, at just under 2 xGA per game, worse even than Norwich.
Leeds now also has the worst xGD of any team except Norwich (Leeds actually had a decent xGD result today. Neither team was very good defensively, but Leeds missed all their good chances and Spurs hit on a few of theirs.)
If a country can seize assets from a person, they can also seize credit owed to them. Oh, Chelsea now owes the government 2 bn instead of Roman. Oh, the loan is now forgiven. The end.
That's slightly glib. More likely they negotiate something regarding loan forgiveness with whomever they sell Chelsea to after they take it off Roman.
Like think about it. How would that even work? The government seize Chelsea. If Roman calls in the loan, the Government could just pay it, and then seize the money they just paid him.
Watford with the big moral victory on the road (if you count being outplayed by a mile a type of morality). They don't really need draws anymore though, so it won't really move the needle for their odds of staying up.
Burnley also with the draw, but they are in much better shape with two more games remaining than Watford, and 2 more points. Only one point off Everton. Only 2 off leads with 2 games in hand over them, and 3 points off Brentford with 3 games in hand there.
edit: also, most of the stuff that Ronaldo used to be able to do in his sleep he was terrible at today. His finishing, which was one of his last remaining world class talents, has seemingly completely deserted him for now.
The money that is owed to Abramovich is also an asset for him, so they would seize the IOU as well. So I don't see what the problem is.
Anyway, here it is, updated:
non-pen xGD/90 games points GD/90 fbref 538 understat arsenal 20 45 1.15 .82 .90 .91 man united 24 46 .71 .47 .48 .54 tottenham 20 35 .30 .45 .60 .42 west ham 23 36 .43 .21 .22 .27 palace 22 27 .27 .10 .18 .20 leicester 18 24 .11 .20 .01 .06 Southampton 22 33 .14 .25 -.03 .03 brighton 22 30 -.09 .01 .09 .09 wolves 22 39 .27 -.09 .02 .04Honestly looked like a handball to me.
Abramovich has given "stewardship and care" of the club to the Chelsea charitable foundation. Not sure if it's particularly meaningful in practice, but maybe it has some valuable symbolism.
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