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Sunday, November 28, 2021

OT Soccer Thread - Domestic Cups, Congested Fixture Lists and Winter Breaks

Champions League Group Stage End - December 7/8
MLS Cup - December 11
Champions League Knockout Stage Draw - December 13
Women’s Champions League Group Stage End - December 15
One Year to World Cup Final - December 18
Women’s Champions League Knockout Stage Draw - December 20
FA Cup Third Round - January 8
CONCACAF World Cup Qualifiers Window - January 27-February 2
EFL Cup Final - February 27

Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 28, 2021 at 10:39 AM | 517 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off topic, soccer

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   501. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 26, 2022 at 04:27 PM (#6066279)
City had the significantly harder game, away to Everton v Liverpool home to Leeds. We're also one game closer to the end of the season, which is worse for Liverpool. Despite that, Liverpool showed a lot more than City did, so the odds for EPL winner narrowed a tad.

The relegation race is wide open now. Newcastle is not out of the woods, but are in very good shape. Burnley has been making a strong case to stay up, of late. The rest are collapsing.
winner
city          76.5
liverpool     23.5

relegation
norwich       90
watford       79

burnley       36
leeds         35
brentford     29
everton       19
newcastle     10

palace         1.5
leicester      0.5


   502. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 26, 2022 at 05:07 PM (#6066280)
Burnley has 14 games left and is expected to get 15 points on average. Probably something like 3.75 draws and 3.5 wins. And 6.75 losses.

The least wins by a team that survived was 6, done by West Brom in 2004/2005 with 16 draws too, and 34 points. A few teams have done it with 7 wins. If we knew Burnley was going to get exactly 4 more wins (for 7 total) their odds of surviving would be pretty good. Maybe upwards of 80%. 3 or fewer not so good.

Most draws in a 38 game EPL season was 17, by a few teams, most recently by Sunderland in 2014/2015, who was one of the teams that had 7 wins and narrowly avoided relegation. Burnley already has 12, so it's still not likely but they could match or beat the record for draws. They would probably need to if they want to stay up this year with just 3 more wins. 34 points is unlikely to do it.

Brighton and Palace also have 12 draws each, but have played 2 more and 3 more games, respectively.
   503. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 27, 2022 at 11:58 AM (#6066309)
EPL CL/EL-related odds:

             top 4   top 6
liverpool    99.5
chelsea      94

arsenal      53.5    87       
united       25      81
tottenham    20      73.5

west ham      6.5    39
Wolves        1.5    14

leicester             2
southampton           1.5
brighton              1
villa                 1

   504. Mefisto Posted: February 27, 2022 at 12:21 PM (#6066314)
I wonder if they're drawing straws among the Chelsea players to see who has to go out there today. Blue and yellow armbands might help some.
   505. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 27, 2022 at 12:35 PM (#6066316)
Villarreal had two big home losses in late November where they also didn't play very well: against United in the CL and against Barcelona in the league. Since then they've been on fire, playing like one of the best teams in the world. Best xGD in La Liga over that period, with only Real Madrid close. They also beat Atalanta on the road to qualify for the CL KOs and outplayed, and should have beaten, Juve last week. They've likely surpassed Betis as the most likely team to sneak above Barca or Atleti into the top 4 of La Liga this year.
   506. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 27, 2022 at 01:25 PM (#6066318)
Lots of chances in the League Cup final. Both keepers played well. Goals also called back for fouls and offside.
   507. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 27, 2022 at 01:37 PM (#6066320)
With their draw today, Dortmnund's season is pretty much over. They are slipping too far behind Bayern to catch them (2% on 538), and are too far ahead of the rest to realistically have to worry about falling out of top 4. They got eliminated from the DFB Pokal in January, to St. Pauli no less, and eliminated in the Europa League to Rangers.

Almost time to kick back and enjoy the rest of the season in a low stress environment.
   508. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 27, 2022 at 02:19 PM (#6066322)
These have been some very good penalties.
   509. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 27, 2022 at 02:28 PM (#6066325)
Kelleher took a very good PK for Liverpool's 11 straight. Kepa's sailed way over the bar.

Bringing in Kepa for PKs backfired most spectacularly. No saves and a skied PK to lose it. Most would have been impossible to save, but he could have saved at least one and maybe a couple more with luck.
   510. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: February 27, 2022 at 02:29 PM (#6066326)
So it's kind of harsh but where does that rank in the worst substitutions ever? Bring on the "penalty specialist" in the final minute then he goes 0 for 11 on the penalties then misses his penalty to lose.

One thing I love about watching penalties is that a lot of times you can see the nerves on some guys as they walk up. But really the only times I saw a guy look unsettled were Lukaku and then Elliott and both of them buried their penalty. Quite the shootout.
   511. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: February 27, 2022 at 02:37 PM (#6066329)
We talked about it previously but absent some really strong evidence I'll never believe that making a substitution right at the end of a match expressly for penalties (whether bringing on a keeper or bringing on a shooter) is the right move. If you are going to make the move that's fine you have to give the player a few minutes at least to get going.
   512. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 27, 2022 at 03:58 PM (#6066337)
Liverpool's odds of the quadruple are just under 1%.
   513. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 28, 2022 at 10:46 AM (#6066388)
We all know by now Fulham is a virtual lock for the EPL next year. Bournemouth has been matching their own preseason expectations, and are now very likely to join Fulham for an automatic spot, especially with West Brom's collapse. The race for the last spot is wide open, though. Don't look now, but the best of the lot seems to be Sheffield United again, who have been very good this year in the Championship. It will be a tight one to make a playoff spot, and always hard to make it through via playoff, but they are considered the team with the best chance to do so: 25% to be promoted by betting odds (30% by 538, who likes them even more, and has them rated second in the league above even Bournemouth in quality).
   514. spivey 2 Posted: February 28, 2022 at 11:51 AM (#6066406)
Marsch to Leeds looks a done deal. The high intensity pressing should be a good fit, but Marsch failed at Leipzig, seems to have lost the dressing room in a very short amount of time there, and Salzburg seem even better without him. What happens with Leeds will be very interesting. They've had injuries, and have a number of guys who seem to still be Championship level. They also have at least a few guys (Phillips, Bamford, Raphinha) who are all Europa or CL level players, imo.
   515. spivey 2 Posted: February 28, 2022 at 11:53 AM (#6066407)
There's probably a lot more money to be made being one of the yo-yo teams that's content to just be the 18th-25th best team in England like Norwich, Bournemouth, etc. than actually trying to get into the mid-table consistently. I guess Fulham has been a yo-yo club too, but I think they have, or at least did have, more ambition than that as recently as 10 years ago.
   516. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 28, 2022 at 02:50 PM (#6066425)
Russia suspended from international soccer. I think that means Poland advances to the winner of Sweden/Czech Republic. It definitely means Leipzig have qualified over Spartak in Europa. Russia has been so bad in Europe this year anyway that was the last team still alive.

UEFA confirm that with Spartak Moscow suspended - RB Leipzig are qualified to the quarter-finals of Europa League.
   517. spivey 2 Posted: February 28, 2022 at 02:59 PM (#6066426)
Sounds like Russia will appeal to CAS. Interesting to see how this goes on many levels. FIFA also released a weak ass response yesterday that they got dunked on for, including by the UEFA VP, that essentially just amounted to playing on a neutral field and having an Olympic-esque fake name for the team.
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