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Thursday, August 11, 2022

OT Soccer Thread - European Leages Return

The new season kicks off in Europe without a peep from the BBTF cognoscenti. Are the fans turned off by the stratospheric player salaries? Dismayed at increasing stratification in domestic leagues? Bored with the prospect of more meaningless Champions League group games? Gearing up for a World Cup boycott? Or, you know, just kind of tired in general. Whatever the reason, we can’t go without a soccer thread, surely!

The Marksist Posted: August 11, 2022 at 02:20 PM | 775 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: off-topic, soccer

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1. Mefisto Posted: August 11, 2022 at 02:23 PM (#6091299)

Thanks for posting this. I've been waiting for a while to talk trash about my team (United) for its front office ineptitude.

2. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 11, 2022 at 02:56 PM (#6091303)

EPL odds and such from prior to start of the season. Betting odds first column, 538 second.


total points
Manchester City       90      85                 
Liverpool             86      80
 
Tottenham             72      66        
Chelsea               70      72      
Arsenal               67      61
Manchester United     66      57  

Newcastle             56      47          
West Ham              53      50      
Aston Villa           51      54       
Leicester City        49      51
Brighton              48      54    
Crystal Palace        46      50       

Wolverhampton         43      46         
Everton               42      42      
Brentford             41      48 
Leeds                 41      41 

Southampton           38      40
Fulham                37      36                
Nottingham Forest     36      35

Bournemouth           31      36


winner
Manchester City       57      46
Liverpool             26      30
 
Tottenham              6       5
Chelsea                5      11
Arsenal                2.5     2
Manchester United      2       1

Field                  1.5     4


top 4
Manchester City       96.5    91
Liverpool             87      83
 
Tottenham             59.5    42
Chelsea               56      60

Arsenal               37.5    28
Manchester United     30      18

Newcastle              8.5     5
West Ham               5.5     9
Villa                  4.5    14
Leicester              4      10
Brighton               3      13
Palace                 1.5     8
Wolves                 1.5     5
Everton                1.5     3

Field                  3.5    11


relegation
Bournemouth           65      44

Forest                41.5    45
Fulham                39      41

Leeds                 30      27
Southampton           24.5    30
Brentford             24      13
Everton               22      23

Wolves                15      16
Palace                11.5    10
Brighton              10       6

Leicester              6.5     8
Villa                  4       5
West Ham               3.5     9
Newcastle              3      14

Field                  0.25    7

ManUnited's ineptitude had them dropping a lot even before the season started, at least from where they were 2-3 months ago. Spurs is the consensus third place pick, by pretty much everyone. Oddsmakers like Newcastle as the most likely to challenge the top 6.

Differences between 538 and betting odds are in large part due to structural changes that 538 is not so aware of, in particular for Chelsea and Newcastle. Of course, betting odds still sees something in ManUnited while 538 has pretty much given up on them. 538 is also much more bullish on Brighton and Brentford. The other teams aren't that different in each mehtodology, once overall adjustments are made for the table to out them on the same scale.

Spurs had a good start, but they also had the very easiest game by a top team in the first week, since Southampton is first in line for the drop if any of the newbies falter, and they also had to travel to Spurs.

3. SoSH U at work Posted: August 11, 2022 at 03:21 PM (#6091309)

Differences between 538 and betting odds are in large part due to structural changes that 538 is not so aware of, in particular for Chelsea and Newcastle.

At some point you would think the results of the structural changes at Newcastle that have already resulted in a much different level of performance would start to be accounted for by 538, but they've been behind them from the get go.

4. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 11, 2022 at 04:53 PM (#6091348)

Yeah Newcastle soared in 538's ratings between Jan 1 and the end of the year--from near worst in the league to solidly midtable. Hard to fault 538 too much for that. But then 538 dropped them a few slots during the offseason. The reason must be that they are getting their adjustment from team value in transfermarkt's data, which has Newcastle as still pretty low, sandwiched between Wolves and Brentford in 12th.

I think Newcastle must be viewed by bettors as likely to keep spending and improving, especially if they start to falter. 538 is mostly only backward looking, to results and current squad value. They can't anticipate a squad increasing its overall player value through future spending. They also only adjust for squad value in the offseason, so cannot account for signings after late July.

5. SoSH U at work Posted: August 11, 2022 at 05:17 PM (#6091350)

I think Newcastle must be viewed by bettors as likely to keep spending and improving, especially if they start to falter. 538 is mostly only backward looking, to results and current squad value. They can't anticipate a squad increasing its overall player value through future spending. They also only adjust for squad value in the offseason, so cannot account for signings after late July.

Maybe I'm just a hopeless fanboy of teams owned by humans rights violators, but it seems 538 never adjusted to the stark improvement in team quality that accompanied the changes last year (the site consistently low on Newcastle's projections throughout the back half of the 2021-22, though they did ultimately peg them for mid-table while they were finishing mid-table). They picked up the fourth most points in the league since the January transfer window. The team that closed out 2022 under Howe is nothing like the one that didn't win any of its first 14 matches last year, but it doesn't seem reflected in those numbers.

6. Mefisto Posted: August 13, 2022 at 01:17 PM (#6091466)

United clearly got much better over the summer. /s

7. KronicFatigue Posted: August 13, 2022 at 01:20 PM (#6091468)

I'm always surprised when the big teams drag some of their transfers into the start of the season. When titles (or top 4) can be decided by just a few points, it seems like its worth over-paying a bit to get your team together before the start. I get why mid-tier teams do it, or even big teams rounding out their rosters.

8. Bret Sabermatrician Posted: August 13, 2022 at 09:34 PM (#6091524)

Same holds true for teams fighting against relegation, like United.

9. Mefisto Posted: August 13, 2022 at 10:14 PM (#6091534)

You think that's a joke, but....

10. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 13, 2022 at 10:23 PM (#6091535)

United's current odds of relegation: 2.5% -- worse than Newcastle at 2%.

They are still ahead of Newcastle in odds for top 4and top 6, but not by much.

Currently projected for 59 points, one more than last season's 58.

11. I am going to be Frank Posted: August 13, 2022 at 10:33 PM (#6091536)

I feel like City's odds of winning are too low. I'm not sure what United can do other than buy three guys who will have to step in right away. Frankie De Jong looked pretty good in his sub role in an otherwise crappy game at Barca, although if he does leave, Chelsea makes more sense.

12. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: August 13, 2022 at 11:08 PM (#6091538)

Right now if you are a big player why would you go to ManU? I mean I gues the answer is money but other than that. There is no reason to think any coach is going to last there, they are far from a lock for a Chamipions League spot any time inthe near future and their recruitment has generally been such a shitshow the situation you are in may not be better.

13. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 14, 2022 at 07:56 AM (#6091551)

The FDJ saga is fascinating, in that for every 10 articles written about whether he leaves, at best one mentions that a main reason he hasn't agreed to leave is because he would be forfeiting millions of dollars if he did. Articles mainly say that he "likes playing for Barca", "doesn't want to leave", "hates he idea of playing for Manchester United" or whatever.

All that may be true too, but this is mostly about money. Barca wants to break the backloaded contract that they negotiated with FDJ to survive the covid years. That way they will have gotten a bargain deal for 2 years and renege on the back end. The ways they can do this are by making it so uncomfortable in Barca he is forced to move to a Chelsea or United, who will presumably pay him a fair wage but it will be less than the backloaded amount he would have made at Barca, or by forcing him to take a pay cut at Barca. Either way FDJ loses millions.

So far FDJ, to his credit, has told Barca to pound sand. He refuses to give up his money, and why should he.

14. SoSH U at work Posted: August 14, 2022 at 08:52 AM (#6091553)

Articles mainly say that he "likes playing for Barca", "doesn't want to leave", "hates he idea of playing for Manchester United" or whatever.

All that may be true too,

If the last wasn't a reason before yesterday, it probably is now.

15. Mefisto Posted: August 14, 2022 at 08:59 AM (#6091554)

#12 is right. United have had years to fix obvious problems and failed to do it. Now they're paying the price.

The only tactic really available to the current roster is to defend deep and play on the counter. The problems come -- as Rangnick discovered last year -- when they try to play a more sophisticated game, and those problems are evident even against mid-table teams. Because the front office is both arrogant and incompetent, they failed to build a roster that can compete with the top 4-5 teams but want their coaches to play like one.

#13: Spot on.

16. I am going to be Frank Posted: August 14, 2022 at 09:00 AM (#6091555)

Yea, the only reason to play for United is money. However, Barcelona screwing players over on their money seems like a reason to not play for them, even though they keep signing players.

17. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 14, 2022 at 09:27 AM (#6091556)

I'm really digging the fact that these Forest shirts don't have a sponsor on the front. Apparently they haven't signed a deal yet after the last one expired. So refreshing.

Just wish the design of the shirts and crest were better.

18. I am going to be Frank Posted: August 14, 2022 at 10:49 AM (#6091559)

It's too bad Robinhood is in bad shape. Perfect symmetry.

19. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: August 14, 2022 at 11:28 AM (#6091561)

I was not expecting that level of entertain,ent from the first game today. That was a doozy.

20. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 14, 2022 at 01:15 PM (#6091566)

So far it's a bit of a whipsaw for Spurs. Once you take into account home field, to start the season they had their fourth easiest game of the year (by anticipated opponent quality), followed by probably their third hardest. That might be the biggest swing of any EPL team to start the season. By far the biggest swing for a top 6 team. (Or is top 5 now...). Southampton had Spurs on the road and then Leeds at home, which is a pretty big swing. Leicester had Brentford at home then Arsenal on the road. Those four matches went pretty much as you might expect.

Which reminds me. Looking at a 10-game rolling average of results and/or xG results is really not enough to control for opponent quality, as there is a lot of variation in schedule difficulty for 10-game stretches. 19 games (half a season) is much better. Sure you can get some idea of whether a team is playing better recently looking at 10-game rolling average, but most of the movement will just be due to opponent quality.

21. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 14, 2022 at 01:25 PM (#6091569)

Yikes, Cucurella got pulled down by the hair. No foul given. Spurs score on the subsequent corner.

edit: there's going to be a lot of discussion after this one. Both Spurs goals came shortly after very clear fouls by Spurs that weren't given.

22. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: August 14, 2022 at 01:27 PM (#6091571)

Both Spurs goals were helped by genuinely terrible missed calls. Always happy to see Chelsea drop points but what’s the point of replay if not those? The hair pulling in particular should have been looked at. If the ref looked at it and said “nah, just got a bit tangled” that’s fair enough but to not look at it at all makes no sense to me.

23. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: August 14, 2022 at 01:52 PM (#6091572)

I am a fan of the dueling reds for Conte and Tuchel.

I am also a fan of the horror movie that is Barcelona setting themselves up for actual bankruptcy by selling all their revenue streams for lump sum payments.

24. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 14, 2022 at 01:55 PM (#6091573)

Someone waggishly suggested a solution to the FDJ standoff is Barca to just give him a chunk of their future revenue streams directly.

25. spivey Posted: August 14, 2022 at 02:03 PM (#6091575)

FOOTBALL'S BACK BOYS!

26. Miserable, Non-Binary Candy is all we deserve CoB Posted: August 14, 2022 at 02:32 PM (#6091579)

This is an interesting angle on the Betancur play that preceded the first Spurs goal

https://twitter.com/WalkerBailey8/status/1558874013950173191

27. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 14, 2022 at 02:53 PM (#6091584)

I think he nicked the ball, but to me it's still a clear foul. The tackle was 80% from behind and was 100% guaranteed to clean the player out. That's a foul to me every time even if there is the slightest of touches on the ball. The touch does give the ref cover though.

28. spivey Posted: August 14, 2022 at 07:24 PM (#6091654)

I agree with 27. I think the EPL and soccer in general have come a long way in the last 10 years in not letting you do dangerous or takeout tackles even if you get part of the ball. It's a definite foul for me.

I also think the goal was significantly after that. Yeah it was the same action but Tottenham went from ball in their own half with no advantage to the goal, which also included a Chelsea possession in their box.

29. The_Ex Posted: August 14, 2022 at 09:55 PM (#6091666)

The premier league below the top six seems interesting this year. (I say the top six but its really the top five).

The usual contenders for seventh such as West Ham, Leicester and Wolves all seem to have taken a step back. Meanwhile Newcastle, Brighton and several others seem to be moving up. Right now its hard to say who could be sixth through 14th or 15th.

The amount of money flowing into the EPL means that each team can afford to buy good players. The teams that are best at that, or luckiest, can over achieve. Teams that are stuck in the old boys network, or beholden to a fixed way of working, may struggle.

I also wonder if some of the teams in the seven to ten range might be asking if its worth spending a lot of money to move from eighth to seventh, for example. The big six have been splashing the cash this off season and some teams might be saying why try to outspend them?

30. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 15, 2022 at 12:06 AM (#6091672)

I also think the goal was significantly after that. Yeah it was the same action but Tottenham went from ball in their own half with no advantage to the goal, which also included a Chelsea possession in their box.

Right. Unlike the hair pull, this was pretty clearly a play where VAR was not supposed to call it back. Doesn't mean the players won't feel aggrieved by the on-field refs though.

For the other play, VAR was in a tiny bit of a bind, since I think they had to either give it a red card or nothing (not sure about that though). With 30 seconds left in the game, a red card seems like fair punishment to me. In the first minute of the game it's a much harder call.

Of course, turns out that not giving the foul allowed Spurs to get the draw, but there was no way VAR could have predicted that.

31. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 15, 2022 at 12:18 AM (#6091674)

Current EPL betting odds point totals expected:

Tottenham    73
Chelsea      72
Arsenal      71

ManU         59
Newcastle    57

West Ham     50
Villa        50
Brighton     50

Leicester    46
Palace       45
Brentford    43
Leeds        42
Wolves       41
Everton      40
Fulham       38
Forest       37
Southampton  37

According to betting odds, maybe Newcastle has a shot at top 4, but no one else outside the big 6 does. Current expected gap between Newcastle (7th) and Leicester (11th) is bigger than the gap between Leicester and Southampton (19th).

Betting odds for top 6 spot

ManU         35
Newcastle    28

WestHam      15
Villa        14
Brighton     13
Leicester     8

Field        17

Top 6 is wide open right now.

32. jmurph Posted: August 15, 2022 at 09:32 AM (#6091691)

Ten Hag's response to the loss (tons of running on a sunday??) is giving off very big "fired by Christmas" energy. He appears to have had no idea what he was getting into.

33. Mefisto Posted: August 15, 2022 at 11:45 AM (#6091706)

Yeah, that was a dumb stunt.

34. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 15, 2022 at 02:37 PM (#6091728)

Definitely dumb, but how much did they actually have to run in the end? They have a roster of 20 people, maybe more with practice squad, and had to go like 7 miles total (forget the number) so a quarter to a third of a mile per player?

Each player was not made to run the full distance. I'd be shocked.

edit: also just to say, they did really hardly run at all. I think it was 95k or something, which is super low. Yes part of that is the roster has a lousy attitude, but the biggest portion is that they were down 4-0 after 30 minutes and were shellshocked with no hope of winning. Not easy to run hard under that scenario, especially if it is hot.

35. Mefisto Posted: August 15, 2022 at 03:00 PM (#6091730)

That's all true, but it's hardly the way to convince the players to bust their butts for you.

36. Mefisto Posted: August 15, 2022 at 04:08 PM (#6091745)

LFC had 75% possession and 17 shots in the first half v. Palace. They're losing.

37. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 15, 2022 at 06:18 PM (#6091767)

Liverpool is currently at 13% to win the title. City at 71%.
Newcastle at 10% to be top 4, so that's thought of as almost as likely now.

Still not Germany/France levels: Bayern: 83%, PSG: 92%

38. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 15, 2022 at 07:38 PM (#6091777)

It was definitely a foul by Bentancur before the first Spurs goal but it was long enough beforehand that it's weird that everyone is so aggrieved. Refs miss fouls all the time. Most of the time there isn't a goal in the next couple of minutes so everyone forgets about it. Arguably, Kulusevski was also fouled before Chelsea's second goal but no one seems to care about that at all.

Romero should have been sent off but I read somewhere that the proper rules application is that he's sent off but it's still a Spurs corner since it happened with the ball out of play. Granted I have a Spurs bias so I'm inclined to believe that.

Not a huge deal in the scheme of things, but shouldn't Tuchel have gotten a second yellow for his reaction after Chelsea's second goal?

39. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 15, 2022 at 08:29 PM (#6091789)

since it happened with the ball out of play.

That's not even close to right.

Probably you have the rule right though, but the ball was most definitely in play.

40. jmurph Posted: August 16, 2022 at 10:53 AM (#6091866)

Haha oh my god this thing is really going to fall apart in a matter of weeks, isn't it?

utdreport @utdreport
Erik ten Hag’s advisors are furious that #mufc have let him down badly in the transfer market. His agents have been left disappointed that Ten Hag has been hung out to dry #mulive [
@sbates_people]

41. Mefisto Posted: August 16, 2022 at 09:18 PM (#6091946)

So now Elon Musk says he's going to buy United. Just like twitter, I suppose.

And I thought things would take a while before they got *that* bad.

42. The_Ex Posted: August 17, 2022 at 07:51 AM (#6092002)

There is a new MUFC transfer rumor every day. It seems their transfer policy is just to pull a name out of a hat.

43. Mefisto Posted: August 17, 2022 at 09:05 AM (#6092009)

And it's hard to tell what's just invented by the press and what's legitimately a report of desperation by United. I do like the Pulisic loan rumor though.

44. Adam M

Posted: August 17, 2022 at 11:36 AM (#6092022)

I know that it is extremely unlikely for a team like Man U to get relegated, but what are the odds they become a long-term mid-table team a la Leicester or Everton?

I have no particular animosity (not even sports-hate) for Man U, its fans, or the city of Manchester, but there is something delightful about watching a titan self destruct.

45. Mefisto Posted: August 17, 2022 at 12:13 PM (#6092025)

That's pretty much what happened to United between 1968 and 1986. They were even relegated in 1974.

46. Textbook Editor Posted: August 17, 2022 at 01:43 PM (#6092030)

Any decent manager shouldn't want to be anywhere near ManU right now. I don't think, obviously, that they'll be relegated, but ten Hag I could see being gone before the World Cup break.

47. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 17, 2022 at 03:41 PM (#6092047)

By clubelo, United's ELO is as low as it has been at any point since 1992, and about equal to the average of 1968-1986. They are still ranked 23rd at the moment, but a loss to Liverpool might knock them out of the top 25. They are still 6th in the EPL in ELO, but just a tad ahead of the quartet of Leicester, Brighton, West Ham, and Newcastle, with Palace not that far behind either.

48. Mefisto Posted: August 19, 2022 at 07:56 PM (#6092312)

United seem to have completed the deal for Casemiro (subject to the usual caveats). I really disliked Casemiro at RM; I don't like his style of play at all. Maybe I'll like him better now that he's our #######.

That said he's a good player and, more important, he fills United's single biggest need. I think he'll have a substantial impact on the team going forward.

49. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 20, 2022 at 12:06 PM (#6092364)

Huge wins for Fulham and Southampton. Relegation battle is very murky at this point. Everton can only manage a draw against Forest at home, so they are very much in the thick of it yet again.

Palace has been making a strong case that it is a top half team. They have an incredibly hard run to start the season, so don't sleep on them if their stats aren't great after 9 games. (In the first 9, they face all then top 6 except Tottenham, and of their other four games, three are against Villa, Newcastle, and Brighton, all expected to be in the top half this season).

50. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 20, 2022 at 12:13 PM (#6092366)

Didn't see the game, but it seems Dortmund gave up 3 (!!) very late goals to lose 2-3 at home against Bremen.

51. spivey Posted: August 20, 2022 at 12:31 PM (#6092368)

For as good as they've been since Klopp left (which is consistently about the 10th to 20th best team in the world), Dortmund is a very unserious team.

52. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: August 20, 2022 at 12:44 PM (#6092370)

Everton are a shambles. They are that wonderful combination of bad and dull.

Dortmund are in a tough spot. They are like Atletico Madrid-lite, they are competitive and bring through a lot of great players but u less other teams falter they are not winning anything or keeping stars through their prime.

53. spivey Posted: August 20, 2022 at 12:57 PM (#6092371)

I think that's very unfair to Atletico, who have won major trophies and played in two CL finals with Simeone. They also seem pretty able to draw top talent and are reasonable good at retaining it.

I think Dortmund are closer to Tottenham, really, but with less financial power, but maybe more financial power relative to their league.

54. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 20, 2022 at 03:51 PM (#6092377)

After Bournemouth, which the odds hate, the next 8 teams are being given each between a 35% (Forest) and 15% (Leicester) chance of being relegated--with no big gap between teams. It's a log jam.

55. spivey Posted: August 20, 2022 at 04:20 PM (#6092382)

Really fell apart for Leicester. They had a couple of really good chances to get CL football, and maybe a lot of this plays out differently if they get one or both of those.

56. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: August 20, 2022 at 07:28 PM (#6092400)

Spivey - Yeah, that’s why I said Atletico-lite but I think Spurs are a better comp.

57. spivey Posted: August 21, 2022 at 10:27 AM (#6092435)

Leeds pressing and midfield overloading has really taken Chelsea out of their game.

58. Miserable, Non-Binary Candy is all we deserve CoB Posted: August 21, 2022 at 10:56 AM (#6092437)

Ohhhhh ... that felt good.

Full time: Leeds 3-0 Chelsea

Chelsea set their own downfall by gifting Leeds the opener thanks to some rank stupidity from Mendy. They never recovered and Leeds’ intensity was too much for Tuchel’s side who crumbled under the pressure they faced at Elland Road. Koulibaly being sent off was the icing on the incompetence cake. Leeds were great thanks to their intensity and work ethic. What a day at Elland Road.

Hilariously, Tuchel spent the final moments of injury-time shouting at the fourth official. Calm down, mate, and make your team better.

59. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 21, 2022 at 10:58 AM (#6092438)

That was a great game by Leeds. If they can play like this they'll be hard for anyone to beat. They are still high tempo but not the sieve that they were in defensive midfield under Bielsa. That's an exciting combination for Leeds fans.

West Ham is the only team without a goal through 3 games (though to be fair they haven't been that close to the worst in xG). Still will be ahead of Man United after tomorrow in the table anyway.

Brighton and Palace came into the year a little underrated and West Ham a little overrated. It's way too early to say stuff like this and things could easily shift a lot going forward, but the first two seem like top half teams while West Ham does not.

60. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 21, 2022 at 11:10 AM (#6092440)

Also, just to say, it's about time betting odds gave more credit to Brighton. Yes two years ago they massively underperformed their xGD, and so there may have been some reason to doubt them. Last year they were a top half team and did not underperform their xG. By clubelo's ELO (entirely scoreline based) they will likely be a top 25 team after this week, basically even with Manchester United, so the results are clearly there.

538 loves Brighton and has them clearly slotted in for Europa next year, with an outside chance at top 4. (Part of that is that 538 hates Manchester United and Newcastle, which are their main competition for Europa.) That may be a tad too high on them, but the point stands. They've been getting it done on the field now as well as in the xG table.

61. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 21, 2022 at 12:10 PM (#6092443)

After 20 minutes of nothing, Newcastle has been ripping through this City defense repeatedly.

62. Miserable, Non-Binary Candy is all we deserve CoB Posted: August 21, 2022 at 12:17 PM (#6092444)

Newcastle has been ripping through this City defense repeatedly.

Like they were armed with a chainsaw?

GO Dismemberment United!

63. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 21, 2022 at 12:39 PM (#6092447)

Maybe Rooney is auditioning for the United job, and it's a bit strange to have a coach of one team across the pond talking so much about another team, but I can't see that he's really wrong about much here. (Also see here to avoid paywall.) In particular, Casemiro will surely make the team better for now but signing him seems more likely over the slightly longer term merely to contribute to repeating the same old patterns of mediocrity.

Casemiro, United’s new signing, will not be eligible to face Liverpool, which is a pity because he will undoubtedly improve United. He’s a good player. I’ve played against him and he’ll bring a bit of character, a bit of work rate, but is he exactly what United need? I’m not sure.
This goes back to the need to look to the future. Ideally, they should be signing players in their early to mid-twenties, and Casemiro is similar to Christian Eriksen — someone who has been a good player, but are they going to help the club move forward? Frenkie de Jong, Ten Hag’s principal midfield target, would be a better fit.
The Casemiro deal seems to have come from nowhere, and looks a reactive signing — I’d be surprised if he was a player identified as a priority to bring in when Ten Hag arrived. It looks like, having been unable to sign De Jong, United just reacted to Casemiro being available.

64. Miserable, Non-Binary Candy is all we deserve CoB Posted: August 21, 2022 at 12:49 PM (#6092452)

Oh, I'm having a day ... Trips makes it 3-1!

65. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 21, 2022 at 12:56 PM (#6092453)

De Bruyne spotting the run and aiming the assist right between the defender's legs from 8 yards away is something truly special.

66. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 21, 2022 at 01:06 PM (#6092455)

Trippier makes a world class free kick goal, followed by a nasty challenge in midfield. Not the worst I've seen though. Those plays should be reds but they usually are just yellows.
...
And he escaped with a yellow on VAR.

67. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: August 21, 2022 at 01:09 PM (#6092456)

I thought this thread was dead. The standard for a red is DOGSO or use of excessive force (outside of violent conduct). The foul was 100% cynical, but never a red. Whether those types of break stopping tackles should have a harsher penalty is up for debate.

68. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 21, 2022 at 01:14 PM (#6092457)

Newcastle did get the Trippier goal in the second half, but 90% of their xG came during a 20-minute stretch in the first half. They haven't done much before or since.

69. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 21, 2022 at 01:17 PM (#6092459)

Whether those types of break stopping tackles should have a harsher penalty is up for debate.

Right. If I were in charge they would be reds every time. Going to the ground to take out a man on the break with no hope of getting the ball should be a red. Outside of the way the rules are actually written, I can't see any argument against it.

70. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: August 21, 2022 at 01:20 PM (#6092460)

That's a fair argument. But I was just pointing out, that the way the rules are currently written, you just cannot justify a red there. And you can't judge a player's actions against what you think the rules should be, and not what they are.

71. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: August 21, 2022 at 01:40 PM (#6092466)

Still not Germany/France levels: Bayern: 83%

Far too low.

72. spivey Posted: August 21, 2022 at 02:16 PM (#6092470)

Leipzig has a pretty damn good team. Maybe their best team of the Red Bull era. Being able to keep Nkunku and Gvardiol for one more year makes them the best challengers Bayern has had in a while, I think. Bayern also doesn't have Lewa, though their front 5 rotation of Sane, Mane, Muller, Coman, and Gnabry is still very, very good.

73. Mefisto Posted: August 21, 2022 at 02:16 PM (#6092471)

They are still high tempo but not the sieve that they were in defensive midfield under Bielsa.

I thought Tyler Adams was MotM.

74. spivey Posted: August 21, 2022 at 02:30 PM (#6092475)

I don't get the criticism of signing Casemiro. United are too big of a brand imo to be doing a deep process-level rebuild. They should be a team that can re-tool. They have a number of young talents on the team, and they can target them, but when you have their financial power it makes sense to use it to fill big holes. McFred, and in particular the Mc part of that tandem, has been their biggest liability for years. They're moving to one of the top few defensive midfielders in the world. It's a massive upgrade.

75. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 21, 2022 at 02:54 PM (#6092477)

That would be fine if they spent like they have unlimited money, but they don't. No team does. There's always an opportunity cost, and I think it's too high here.

There's every chance that Casemiro will be very good for a couple years, then ok, then another albatross. He might be a piece you add to an already very good team trying to get over a critical hump right now to win trophies and championships. At the moment, I guess he could be the difference between ECL play next year and not.

Also, they better be sure Casemiro has a highly self-motivated and team-oriented personality. He's now on his last big contract and as his skills start to deteriorate and especially if the team is mediocre, it's going to be hard to motivate him otherwise.

76. Mefisto Posted: August 21, 2022 at 04:28 PM (#6092485)

I'm inclined to agree with AuntBea re Casemiro, though I do think he'll help in the short term. The other problem is that United's talent pipeline is relatively dry. As a franchise they're hurting.

77. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 22, 2022 at 08:49 AM (#6092560)

Clubelo has 5 EPL teams in the top 9 in the world. Then a very big gap until Brighton/United level at 24th, leading a tight group that also includes Newcastle, Palace, Leicester, and West Ham.

Likewise, 538 has the 5 EPL teams in the top 11, with Brighton 22nd, United 27th, and Palace 30th.

Betting odds have United at 12% for top 4, and only 38% for top 6. That's a lot better than 538, who has them at 9% and 23%.

78. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 22, 2022 at 11:38 AM (#6092577)

A recent study of a large sample found an approximate 53/47 advantage to going first in penalty shootouts in the men's senior game. So, potentially a small advantage but not as large as had been formerly stated. Also, in 268 trials the 53/47 split was not statistically significant (i.e., I think it is only about 75% likely that going first is better).

79. KronicFatigue Posted: August 22, 2022 at 12:16 PM (#6092585)

Going back to my earlier complaint upthread about big teams waiting too long in the transfer window by nickle-and-diming....

If Chelsea had another CB (aka pulled the trigger on Fofana), they could have moved James back to his best position at RWB and moved RLC back to his best position at MF (playing for the injured Kante and Kovacic).

That's 3 positions improved upon for the Leeds match. And RLC missed a shot that my gut says James buries. Chelsea got absolutely crushed in the midfield and RLC would have been an improvement.

Not sure if it changes the result, but shoot man, there's only 38 matches, and Chelsea isn't at full strength because it's trying to save a few bucks.

80. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 22, 2022 at 03:50 PM (#6092620)

This has been a shocker. United ahead of Liverpool in the live table, and not playing half badly. (Still behind in the projected table though, once you take into account the likelihood of all results today).

81. Mefisto Posted: August 22, 2022 at 03:57 PM (#6092621)

I have to think Klopp will change things at halftime; I believe LFC had 0 xG in the first half. Part of that was United energy, and maybe they can't sustain that all game and will regret Elanga hitting the post instead of burying it, but it'll be interesting to see Klopp's adjustments.

82. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 22, 2022 at 03:59 PM (#6092622)

Liverpool had about 0.5 xG . Most of it came fairly late in the half--they only had one shot through 27 minutes, and only two through 34 minutes. I thought Milner's late header that led to the near own goal in particular should have been worth more than 0.09 (infogol), since it was a free header from a very dangerous location IIRC.

It wasn't Liverpool's worst offensive half of the season though. they slept through the first 60 minutes against Fulham, generating just 0.1 xG during that hour. Then they turned it on offensively.

83. Mefisto Posted: August 22, 2022 at 04:08 PM (#6092623)

Ah, I missed the last few minutes. Still, .5 is not very Liverpoolish.

84. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 22, 2022 at 04:17 PM (#6092624)

Now United is ahead even in the projected standings, taking into account all probabilities.

Still so much time left though.

85. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 22, 2022 at 04:55 PM (#6092637)

United was a team in crisis, and realistically they still are. Liverpool has their own crisis going now as well. Their chances of winning the league are basically gone.

86. Mefisto Posted: August 22, 2022 at 05:03 PM (#6092642)

I wouldn't count out Liverpool just yet. It's a long season and they're missing a lot of players to injury.

That was the best I've felt about a United performance in quite a while.

87. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 22, 2022 at 05:06 PM (#6092645)

EPL winner odds (it's bleak...)

City       72.5

Liverpool   8.5
Arsenal     7.5
Tottenham   5.5
Chelsea     3.5
United      1.5
Newcastle   0.5
Field       0.5

88. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 22, 2022 at 05:14 PM (#6092647)

EPL relegation odds:

Bournemouth    68.5

Forest         39.5
Southampton    32.5
Everton        29.5
Fulham         27.5

Wolves         22.5
Leicester      16.5
Leeds          16
Brentford      15

West Ham       10
Palace          9.5
Villa           9

Brighton        3
United          1

89. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 22, 2022 at 05:22 PM (#6092649)

EPL Top 4 odds:

City         97

Liverpool    76
Tottenham    63
Arsenal      61.5
Chelsea      55

United       22.5
Newcastle    12

Brighton      5
West Ham      2
Villa         2
Palace        2
Field         4

90. Mefisto Posted: August 22, 2022 at 07:56 PM (#6092675)

I thought Rashford was offside when he scored, and it turns out he would have been last year. They changed the standard this year in an effort to eliminate the fractional offsides and the goal stood because of that.

91. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 22, 2022 at 08:11 PM (#6092681)

Even more importantly (though not for this game), they changed the interpretation of the offside rule that allowed ridiculous goals to be scored because a defensive player merely tried to defend the ball and got the slightest of touches only. That one was way overdue.

Change in offside
IFAB, football's law-making body, has clarified the offside rule, explaining what constitutes defending players "deliberately playing" the ball.

Though Law 11 (offside) has not explicitly changed, the new guidelines make clear that an attacking player who is offside will not automatically become onside upon a defender touching the ball, unless it was a save.

Though Law 11 has not explicitly changed, the new guidelines make clear an offside player will not automatically become onside upon a defender touching the ball.

"'Deliberate play' is when a player has control of the ball with the possibility of passing the ball to a team-mate, gaining possession of the ball, or clearing the ball," IFAB's clarified guidelines state.

"If the pass, attempt to gain possession or clearance by the player in control of the ball is inaccurate or unsuccessful, this does not negate the fact that the player 'deliberately played' the ball."

In addition, IFAB provides these indicators as to when a player "deliberately played" the ball:

- The ball had travelled from distance and the players had a clear view of it
- The ball was not moving quickly
- The direction of the ball was not unexpected
- The player had time to coordinate their body movement
- A ball moving on the ground is easier to play than a ball in the air

If they can change the interpretation of that rule, then surely they can change the interpretation of what is "violent conduct" or "serious foul play"

SERIOUS FOUL PLAY

A tackle or challenge that endangers the safety of an opponent or uses excessive force or brutality must be sanctioned as serious foul play.

Any player who lunges at an opponent in challenging for the ball from the front, from the side or from behind using one or both legs, with excessive force or endangers the safety of an opponent is guilty of serious foul play.

VIOLENT CONDUCT

Violent conduct is when a player uses or attempts to use excessive force or brutality against an opponent when not challenging for the ball, or against a team-mate, team official, match official, spectator or any other person, regardless of whether contact is made.

In addition, a player who, when not challenging for the ball, deliberately strikes an opponent or any other person on the head or face with the hand or arm, is guilty of violent conduct unless the force used was negligible.

You could definitively argue that any slide tackle with no chance of getting the ball is serious foul play, as it both endangers the opponent and is excessive with respect to making a play on the ball (because there is no play on the ball). In fact, that's exactly how I would interpret the rule if starting with these rules from scratch. (Yes, I know that's how they are generally interpreted. The leagues are far, far too lenient on intentional fouls.)

92. Mefisto Posted: August 22, 2022 at 08:31 PM (#6092688)

I agree on fouls.

93. The Marksist Posted: August 23, 2022 at 10:47 AM (#6092798)

While we're talking refereeing, I hate, hate, hate the "let play flow" edict. So far, in the games I've watched, it just means which fouls get called is basically random. Feels like a big net negative to me.

94. Mefisto Posted: August 23, 2022 at 11:50 AM (#6092813)

Yeah, and you end up with both players just hacking each other long after the ref should have called something.

95. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 24, 2022 at 03:25 PM (#6093035)

PSV/Rangers is the biggest qualifying game for a CL spot, considering teams and round.

We just had a classic example of a play where everyone in the stadium "knew" the PSV player was offside, and the linesman let the players run all the way down towards the corner before blowing his whistle, much to the annoyance of the Rangers players who had to sprint 40 yards. No groans from the home fans either, since the forward was "clearly" offside.

Except the replays showed he was onside by 18 inches and it wasn't particularly close. It was one of those plays that is extremely hard for the linesman to get right... as it was on his side of the field but in the opposing half, was a fast long pass from deep in PSV's own territory with the forward moving at high speed through the static Rangers back line. Almost impossible for the linesman to see, so he correctly let it go despite it looking clearly offside to everyone (including me watching live).

Then, again correctly, the linesman followed the guidelines and blew for offside when it was clear the ball and player were headed toward the corner not straight at goal.

I just bring this up to complain about the announcers who repeatedly, in game after game, complain about the offside rule and about how the linesman don't raise their flags earlier when "everyone knows" the play was offside. Some plays are very hard for linesman to see (in particular based on the angles of the play from the linesman's perspective, and his duties at one end of the field when the ball is quickly payed to the other end), so the guidelines now are, on a play that the linesman thinks is offside but can't be sure, to wait to see if the play goes towards the corner or towards goal. If they think it is offside but was too close to call upfront, then if towards goal they wait for the immediate scoring chance to resolve, and if towards the corner they raise the flag. In this way, if they end up getting it wrong, as they did in this game, at least they don't prevent the offense from losing a very big scoring chance.

You would think that announcers, watching so many games, would intuitively understand these points, but you would be wrong.

96. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 24, 2022 at 04:52 PM (#6093061)

The last time Rangers and Celtic both made the CL group stage was 15 years ago, where like this year, Celtic qualified automatically and Rangers came through qualifying, beating Zeta (who?) and Red Star.

97. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 24, 2022 at 05:03 PM (#6093063)

The Champions League pots are all set now, with the final game in extras.

Pot 1

Spain Real Madrid CC: 124.000
Germany Eintracht Frankfurt CC: 61.000
England Manchester City CC: 134.000
Italy Milan CC: 38.000
Germany Bayern Munich CC: 138.000
France Paris Saint-Germain CC: 112.000
Portugal Porto CC: 80.000
Netherlands Ajax CC: 82.500

Pot 2

England Liverpool CC: 134.000
England Chelsea CC: 123.000
Spain Barcelona CC: 114.000
Italy Juventus CC: 107.000
Spain Atlético Madrid CC: 105.000
Spain Sevilla CC: 91.000
Germany RB Leipzig CC: 83.000
England Tottenham Hotspur CC: 83.000

Pot 3

Germany Borussia Dortmund CC: 78.000
Austria Red Bull Salzburg CC: 71.000
Ukraine Shakhtar Donetsk CC: 71.000
Italy Inter Milan CC: 67.000
Italy Napoli CC: 66.000
Portugal Benfica CC: 61.000
Portugal Sporting CP CC: 55.500
Germany Bayer Leverkusen CC: 53.000

Pot 4

Scotland Rangers CC: 50.250
France Marseille CC: 44.000
Denmark Copenhagen CC: 40.500
Belgium Club Brugge CC: 38.500
Scotland Celtic CC: 33.000
Czech Republic Viktoria Plzeň CC: 31.000
Israel Maccabi Haifa CC: 7.000
Zagrab or Bodø/Glimt

98. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 24, 2022 at 05:17 PM (#6093069)

By betting odds, the pots shake out like this:

Pot 1 -
City
PSG/Bayern
Real Madrid
Inter/Ajax
Porto/Frankfurt

Pot 2 -
Liverpool
Barcelona
Chelsea/Tottenham
Atleti/Juve
Leipzig
Sevilla

Pot 3 -
Dortmund/Milan
Napoli/Leverkusen/Benfica
Salzburg/Sporting
Shakhtar

Pot 4 -
Marseille
Rangers
Celtic/Brugge
Pizen/Zagrab or BodøGlimt/Copenhagen/Maccabi Haifa

99. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 24, 2022 at 10:50 PM (#6093128)

pre-draw odds

city         26

psg          14
liverpool    14
bayern       12

real madrid   7
barcelona     6
chelsea       4
tottenham     4

atleti        2
juve          2
inter         2
dortmund      1
milan         1
ajax          1
leipzig       1

benfica       0.4
napoli        0.4
porto         0.25
sevilla       0.25
leverkusen    0.2
marseille     0.2
frankurt      0.2

last 10       1

The top 4 here are given 2/3 chance to win it all. The top 8 are given 87%.

100. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 25, 2022 at 07:14 AM (#6093152)

With Russian soccer having fallen off a cliff even before the ban for becoming a pariah state, and with the strong resurgence of the Netherlands, we have a clear top 7 leagues: England, Spain, Germany, Italy, France, Portugal, Netherlands. The 8th is a lot harder to peg, since Turkey has also been very poor of late and Scotland is a 2-team league so they are also out. The best bets right now are for 8th/9th are Belgium and Austria, the latter of which has come on strong the last few years. Austria is only 12 teams so it's bit of a cheat, but their top 6 teams are better than anyone else's below them, save Russia's top 6 and maybe they are fairly even with Turkey.

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