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Thursday, August 11, 2022

OT Soccer Thread - European Leages Return

The new season kicks off in Europe without a peep from the BBTF cognoscenti. Are the fans turned off by the stratospheric player salaries? Dismayed at increasing stratification in domestic leagues? Bored with the prospect of more meaningless Champions League group games? Gearing up for a World Cup boycott? Or, you know, just kind of tired in general. Whatever the reason, we can’t go without a soccer thread, surely!

The Marksist Posted: August 11, 2022 at 02:20 PM | 775 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: off-topic, soccer

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101. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 25, 2022 at 01:08 PM (#6093218)

The draw is not that exciting this year, as there are only a few teams that are wildly misplaced as compared to expectation. On top of that, there are so many rules about who can play who on what day and in what city, that sometimes there are very few options for teams to face.

Group rankings by overall quality? This is a bit subjective, as it depends what you are trying to measure (chance to win, chance to advance, most competitive, etc.)

We do have a group of death anyway, so that's fun. Liverpool won't have a walk over, while Spurs should.

1. C. Bayern/Barcelona/Inter/Pizen
2. A. Liverpool/Ajax/Napoli/Rangers
3. G. ManCity/Dortmund/Sevilla/Copenhagen
4. H. PSG/Juve/Benfica/Haifa
5. E. Chelsea/Milan/Salzburg/Zagreb
6. F. RealMadrid/Leipzig/Celtic/Shakhtar
7. B. Atleti/Porto/Leverkusen/Brugge
8. D. Tottenham/Sporting/Marseille/Frankfurt

102. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: August 25, 2022 at 01:15 PM (#6093221)

Is it me or are the groups more interesting this year than usual? I feel like Groups E and H are pretty well locked in (PSG/Juve and Chelsea/Milan) but the other groups have at least one spot legitimately in contention.

103. Spivey Posted: August 25, 2022 at 01:17 PM (#6093222)

Inter is the best of group 3 by a fair bit imo, so I think any group with them was likely to be quite tough unless they got paired with Frankfurt or Porto. That group could be really fun. Big challenge for Xavi and Nagelsmann.

104. Spivey Posted: August 25, 2022 at 01:21 PM (#6093223)

Salzburg is one of those teams that has a fair amount of year-to-year variance, but they've been really solid the last 2-3 years, including playing teams like Bayern and Liverpool tough in games. I don't think that group is at all settled. 538 things Salzburg is slightly better than Milan, though I dunno if I'd go quite that far.

105. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 25, 2022 at 01:30 PM (#6093227)

Real Madrid will be heavily favored to win the group over Leipzig, who will be heavily favored to advance over the others. It's not a particularly interesting group, in large pat because it has the weakest third-best team.

106. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 25, 2022 at 08:41 PM (#6093299)

I'm not convinced Juve is locked in for group H over Benfica. They look pretty bad.

107. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 26, 2022 at 10:14 AM (#6093324)

Yeah ELO and especially 538 are high on Benfica and low on Juve. Betting odds still has Juve as very big favorites over Benfica to advance though.

108. KronicFatigue Posted: August 26, 2022 at 10:22 AM (#6093326)

Is Barca the most hated team at this point? Or am I just projecting? Group A is going be a fun group, rooting against them (though I'll also be rooting against Lukaku)

109. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 26, 2022 at 10:36 AM (#6093327)

Arsenal got a much tougher group than United in Europa. Say what you want about Sheriff, but last year's run aside they don't have a track record of being a decent team. Bode/Glimt and Zurich are likely to be as good and probably better. United's other teams are Sociedad, not obviously any better than PSV at the moment, and Omonia, who are very weak.

Say what you want about United, but aside from Arsenal they might be the best team in the Europa group stage. PSV and Sociedad were probably in the top five or six teams as well. So these are the two most top-heavy groups in Europa certainly. That also means it's not the least bit hard to imagine one or both of Arsenal/United finishing second in the group, and having a very tough round of 32 match with a third place CL team.

110. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 26, 2022 at 10:57 AM (#6093329)

Champions League groups, with odds to advance in percentages:

Group A
Liverpool        88
Ajax             49
Napoli           44
Rangers          19

Group B
Atleti           75
Porto            54
Leverkusen       52
Brugge           19

Group C    
Bayern           86
Barcelona        66
Inter            45
Pizen             3

Group D
Tottenham        81
Marseille        43
Frankfurt        43
Sporting         33

Group E
Chelsea          88
Milan            74
Salzburg         30
Dinamo            8

Group F 
Real Madrid      94
Leipzig          72
Celtic           25
Shakhtar          9

Group G
City             94
Dortmund         61
Sevilla          37
Copenhagen        8

Group H
PSG              92
Juve             82
Benfica          25
Haifa             3

111. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 26, 2022 at 11:31 AM (#6093331)

538 is much, much higher on Ajax, Porto, Benfica, Sporting, and Salzburg. To a lesser extent Celtic. I'm sensing a trend...

Otherwise they are actually pretty similar. Within the Top 5 leagues, the only team that really looks different to 538 is Juve. 538 is also a little lower on Barca and Atleti, but it's not that notable.

112. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 27, 2022 at 11:42 AM (#6093438)

Union Berlin scored 6 goals today from about 1 xG. I'm curious to see the highlights.

Liverpool already has 8 with 10 minutes left.

113. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 27, 2022 at 12:26 PM (#6093441)

Not sure who was grading that game, but they weren't giving a lot of xG credit to some pretty good chances. At least 3 of the chances were fairly good ones, and two were very good ones, that probably should have been graded as big chances but weren't.

For the other goals, the game also featured a very sweet volley on the run from a tight angle, and also a seeing eye rising rocket from outside the box that somehow avoided all the legs in the crowd between the shooter and the goal, giving the keeper no time to react.

114. I am going to be Frank Posted: August 27, 2022 at 12:27 PM (#6093442)

Erling Haaland is very, very good

115. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 27, 2022 at 12:33 PM (#6093444)

Palace was ahead most of the game and without Zaha, but they only ended up with 2 shots and about 0.1 xG. The second half especially was extremely one-sided, with Palace doing nothing whether ahead, level, or behind, and City just pouring it on for 45 minutes straight.

116. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 27, 2022 at 06:58 PM (#6093471)

Europa odds. It's Arsenal, United, and the rest. 1/3 or so reserved for a 3rd place CL team.

Arsenal          14
United           11.5

Roma              6.5
Betis             4
Lazio             4
Sociedad          3
PSV               2.5
Union Berlin      2
Freiburg          2
Feyenoord         2
Monaco            1.5
Rennes            1.5
Braga             1.5
Fenerbache        1
Red Star          1
Olympiacos        1
Kyiv              1
Saint Gilloise    1
Trabzonspor       0.5
Nantes            0.5
Malmo             0.5

Field (11 teams)  3

Crazy draw, because not only were Arsenal drawn with PSV and United drawn with Sociedad, Roma was drawn with Betis. That's 6 of the top 7 teams by betting odds drawn in just 3 groups.

117. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: August 27, 2022 at 07:34 PM (#6093477)

Union Berlin scored 6 goals today from about 1 xG. I'm curious to see the highlights.

Clearly they stole Bayern's shooting boots.

118. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 28, 2022 at 11:24 AM (#6093499)

Despite the double pivot guys saying Neves' hasn't outperformed his xG, he's now an amazing +50% (understat) and +40% (fbref) on non-penalty shots. That's very high, with the also very important caveat that its's only a few goals total (11), so could still be mostly randomness.

I'ts almost all been over the last 1+ years, where Neves has now scored 5 goals on about 1.5 xG (4 goals in 1.3 xG from outside the box).

edit: I'm also seeing that Neves has taken few shots from inside the area, but when he has, he has been even better v xG than outside the box. So it's only like +25% from outside the box. With so few goals for Neves (8 total outside the box since this started being tracked 5 years ago), every goal makes a big difference. Before today he was only tracked at about 10-15% better from outside the box, well within the margin of error.

119. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 28, 2022 at 12:41 PM (#6093505)

Also 3 of those 8 goals came from direct free kicks, out of 1bout 2.3 xG. So if you take those out (though not exactly sure why you would...), Neves now has 5 goals from a little over 4 xG from outside the box over the last 5 years (1 off a corner play, and another off of a set piece play). Still an indication of a very good striker of the ball, though could at the same time could be mostly due to random chance.

Apparently if you add in all the years not tracked by fbref and understat (i.e. , go back to the Championship and Portuguese league) than he does even better.

edit: none of this is to imply he should take more or fewer shots outside the box--I'm agnostic on that since they are low-xG chances and even if a player is good at it doesn't mean it's a smart choice.

120. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 29, 2022 at 12:02 PM (#6093595)

6 teams in the Championship are being given decent odds to get promoted. 5 of those 6 were relegated in the last 2 years: Burnley, Watford. Norwich, Sheffield United, West Brom. The only other team relegated in the last two years was Fulham, who are already in the EPL. Going back another year, you get Bournemouth, who is back in the prem, and Watford and Norwich again. So these are your yoyo teams.

The other team that is being given a decent chance this year is Middlesbrough--the last time they were up was 2016-2017.

121. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 29, 2022 at 12:16 PM (#6093596)

Europa Conference odds. It's Vilarreal, West Ham and the rest. 1/3 or so reserved for a 3rd place EL team.

Villarreal       13.5
West Ham         12

Fiorentina        6.5
Koln              5
Nice              5
Basel             3.5
Alkmaar           3
Basaksehir        2.5
Anderlecht        2.5
Slavia            1.5
Gent              1.5
Cluj              1
Partizan          1
Vienna            1
Molde             0.5
FCSB              0.5
Slovan            0.5
Sivasspor         0.5

Field (14 teams)  4

122. Mefisto Posted: August 29, 2022 at 08:43 PM (#6093646)

I'm disappointed that Pulisic is apparently staying at Chelsea. He doesn't seem likely to get much playing time. I guess the upside is that he probably won't carry any injuries into the World Cup.

123. Spivey Posted: August 29, 2022 at 09:12 PM (#6093653)

I think Pulisic could very easily get a lot of playing time if he can stay health and earns it. They have a lot of attackers but none are in form (I think Tuchel and just their very conservative setup and midfield has a lot to do with this).

Competition at a top 10 club is really tough, especially as a LW, which is probably the most competitive spot of top talent in the world.

124. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 30, 2022 at 03:01 PM (#6093746)

There are 7 teams from London in the EPL right now, so 42 out of 380 games are London derbies. That's more than 1 per week.

125. SoSH U at work Posted: August 30, 2022 at 03:47 PM (#6093752)

I hate that penalty call against Fulham.

126. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 30, 2022 at 04:05 PM (#6093753)

Yeah it's a tough one to swallow because the Fulham player had position and was already making a play on the ball before the Brighton player sneaked his leg in, mostly from behind the Fulham player.

Sometimes you see a similar play where the defender should have know the offensive player was there and had at least an equal claim to the ball, and yet still gets kicked inadvertently when the offensive player gets his leg in. Those seen fairly justified whereas this one much less so.

127. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 30, 2022 at 04:15 PM (#6093756)

The surprise in this Fulham game is just how few chances Brighton have had. Fulham has not exactly had a watertight defense this year, or any recent year.

edit: spoke to soon, kinda. Brighton had a huge xG chance that was 2 yards offside, but the linesman somehow missed it! Since it went out for a corner ultimately it was never called back.

edit2: two huge xG chances on the same play, neither of which should have counted.

128. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 30, 2022 at 04:27 PM (#6093757)

Brentford absolutely came on late, drew level and came within a whisker of winning. All after a cagey but fairly even game for 80+ minutes. Hard luck draw for Brentford at Palace.

Fulham deserved to win this one, though xG won't really show it, especially if you count the penalty. Big win against an opponent playing very well before this game, and Fulham is now one of the best surprises of the season after 5 games.

129. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 30, 2022 at 04:34 PM (#6093759)

And what's going on with this Chelsea game. They started strong but then gave up a couple goals, and since then they've had very few chances as Southampton has played some stout defense with the lead.

edit: and with that win, Southampton passes Chelsea in the table (slimmest of margins, and all that). That was not expected.

130. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 30, 2022 at 04:49 PM (#6093763)

Another round of games, another new top 6 team in crisis. This time it's Chelsea, now the biggest loser since the season started under 538's methodology. (Villa and Bournemouth currently notables as well.)

131. Mefisto Posted: August 30, 2022 at 05:01 PM (#6093768)

I've now seen Chelsea 3-4 times this season and they haven't looked very good in most of them. Tuchel keeps running out pretty much the same starting 11, despite the lack of results and despite having one of the deepest rosters in the league. And then it was weird today to put Pulisic in at right wingback

132. Spivey Posted: August 30, 2022 at 08:48 PM (#6093800)

I think Chelsea is suffering a similar problem to Liverpool, in that their midfields that were world class a couple of years ago have kind of aged out and are pretty injury prone and/or past it.

I think if Kante and Kovacic are healthy, Chelsea's a very tough team.

Similarly, Liverpool are very tough if Fabinho and Thiago are healthy.

Just not sure these are things you can count on year-round from those guys anymore, and Jorginho, Milner, and Henderson I think have all lost steps.

133. Mefisto Posted: August 30, 2022 at 08:57 PM (#6093803)

That makes sense.

134. KronicFatigue Posted: August 30, 2022 at 09:42 PM (#6093809)

Agree with #132. It's gotta be tough to convince another quality MF to join Chelsea knowing that they'd be behind a healthy Kante and then splitting time with Kovacic and Jorginho. But Jorginho is terrible, and I thought he's been overrated for years. He's too slow and is a big reason we fail to transition from defense to offense quickly enough.

Too many players are playing out of position too. Mount isn't a natural winger, James, possibly one of the best wing backs in the world, has had to play a bit at RCB. The offense has no gampelan. Reddit is convinced TT has lost the dressing room.

135. jmurph Posted: August 31, 2022 at 07:42 AM (#6093837)

Reddit is convinced TT has lost the dressing room.

Well he is coming up on that 2 year mark in January, I think only Mourinho has survived longer.

136. Spivey Posted: August 31, 2022 at 08:39 AM (#6093840)

Tuchel has also had a falling out at every club he's been at, going back to Mainz.

I think Boehy is going to give him significantly more rope than Roman would have, though.

Though Tuchel needs to stop committing self inflicted wounds like playing Reece James at RCB instead of RB/RWB.

137. The Marksist Posted: August 31, 2022 at 09:26 AM (#6093845)

Though Tuchel needs to stop committing self inflicted wounds like playing Reece James at RCB instead of RB/RWB.

I think this is absolutely spot-on, but it makes me wonder (again) about how often managers do stuff that fans/observers consider obviously wrong. I'm torn between "this guy definitely knows more than me; I should assume he has a good reason" and "people do nonsensical stuff all the time in regular life, why not in football." There's no good way to study this or identify which situations are which, because there are too many unknowns and "soft" factors, but it sure is interesting!

138. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 31, 2022 at 10:04 AM (#6093852)

Totally agree with 137. Yes people make stupid decisions and/or overthink things all the time even when they have the highest levels of competence and expertise. On the other hand, especially without oneself being an expert in the field and having a very good factual understanding of all the moving pieces, it's really hard to judge when this is happening. From the outside, things usually seem way more straightforward than they really are.

139. Mefisto Posted: August 31, 2022 at 12:15 PM (#6093871)

Deleted; screwed up link

140. Mefisto Posted: August 31, 2022 at 12:16 PM (#6093872)

Check out this pass map for Chelsea yesterday.

141. jmurph Posted: August 31, 2022 at 02:56 PM (#6093900)

Haaland is going to score a million goals.
(EDIT: This was after the second goal, for the record.)

142. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 31, 2022 at 03:16 PM (#6093903)

If he stays healthy, must be odds on to break the EPL record right now. (32 in 38 games from Salah, and 34 in 42 games from Cole and Shearer).

143. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 31, 2022 at 03:22 PM (#6093905)

Villa has been pretty toothless this year. They look terrible against Arsenal right now.

144. Mefisto Posted: August 31, 2022 at 03:31 PM (#6093906)

At this rate he'll break the record before the end of the year.

145. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 31, 2022 at 04:03 PM (#6093913)

After absolutely dominating all game but managing only the single goal, Arsenal gives one up direct from the corner on a keeper error.

edit: might have been held a bit by the offensive player, but mostly just blocked off 80% legally.

edit2: oh well, that woke up Arsenal. 2-1 immediately.

146. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 31, 2022 at 04:27 PM (#6093915)

After the games today and tomorrow, Villa could be the team with the second least amount of xG, after Bournemouth. They've been terrible offensively.

Bournemouth is just an absolute disaster though. Less than 1.5 xG through 5 games.

edit: Bournemouth has played City, Liverpool, and Arsenal though (0.5 xG combined...). So that was not easy.

147. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 31, 2022 at 04:59 PM (#6093919)

Wow. Liverpool won in the 8th minute of 5 minutes of stoppage time. They sure had to fight for that one. Keeps some interest in the title race alive!

148. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 31, 2022 at 05:10 PM (#6093921)

In the past 8 years of the EPL, only twice has any player had meaningfully more than 20 non-pen xG on the season. Kane and Salah both did it in 2017/20018, where they both had around 24 xG.

Haaland already has 6.5 non-pen xG in 5 games.

149. Mefisto Posted: September 01, 2022 at 08:37 AM (#6093993)

Apparently Dan James is going to Fulham. I can say with some assurance that James is ... not good. It's not clear why Fulham want him, but it's also weird that he would leave Leeds -- the one team that might actually use his only talent (running a lot and getting in the way of the opponents) -- for literally anywhere else.

150. Textbook Editor Posted: September 01, 2022 at 02:18 PM (#6094027)

Romero is absolutely 100% going to get a red card defending Haaland the first time Spurs play Man City.

151. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 01, 2022 at 03:24 PM (#6094035)

Well that was sure some space in the Leicester defense.

edit: they were forced to have the keeper kick it down field off a back pass but were woefully unready to defend once he did. Four of the simplest passes and a goal--no defense to be seen.

edit2: to be fair to United, the passes and runs were very well timed, but there was also just so much space.

152. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 01, 2022 at 05:18 PM (#6094063)

Leicester has now passed Fulham as 4th most likely to be relegated. When the season started Fulham's odds were 39% and Leicester 6.5%.

It doesn't take much to beat Leicester right now. They really only played one decent game, and that was entirely because they had a man advantage for over an hour. I give United 2 stars for beating them in a fairly dour performance.

They are away to Brighton next, with Brighton coming off their first bad game of the year. Don't bet on Leicester in that one.

153. Mefisto Posted: September 01, 2022 at 07:01 PM (#6094084)

Yeah, United were pretty average. Other than the goal, I don't remember Ward having to make a play.

154. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 02, 2022 at 01:36 PM (#6094201)

The transfer window is thankfully finally over. All Barca's noise about FDJ was apparently just to pressure him into giving up cash money. In the end, Barca kept him and will very likely start him most of the time. It seems once they realized their pressure tactics weren't going to work, they essentially gave up.

Barca is clearly better with FDJ still there. They should never have tried to sell him in the first place, since in the end it's obvious they were never trying to get a fair deal that allowed FDJ to be compensated for his deferred wages. The only thing they achieved was making themselves look absolutely disgraceful.

We're stuck with another year of Ronaldo in the EPL. I think getting Ronaldo likely was the thing that really exposed OGS's limitations as a manager, and maybe to some extent you can say the same thing about Ragnick.

United was a fun team to watch under OGS when they played very tight defensive and swift counterattacking football, very well I might add. A style that gave even the very best teams like City fits. Yes, it was a limited style and not one that was going to win the league, but they didn't have the personnel or coaching for that anyway. Going into last year the team somehow believed they were ready for the big time, ready to switch up their style and play for titles and trophies. Getting Ronaldo was part of that overall change in perspective and approach. The whole thing ended up as a disaster and Ronaldo was just the cherry on top of the #### sundae.

I'm not sure what Ten Hag will bring ultimately, but am happy he is willing to have Ronaldo come off the bench and seems rapidly to have realized he needs to work within the team's limitations.

155. Mefisto Posted: September 02, 2022 at 01:45 PM (#6094203)

That's a very good summary of United's trajectory.

156. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 02, 2022 at 02:43 PM (#6094213)

Europa group odds (to advance, and winner):

Group A
Arsenal       95        75
PSV           68        18
Bodo Glimt    22         4
Zurich        15         3

Group B
Rennes        74        38
Fenerbahce    63        35
Kyiv          43        19
AEK           20         8

Group C
Roma          93        59
Betis         87        34
Ludogorets    16         5
HJK            4         2

Group D
Union Berlin  69        35
Braga         63        32
St Gilloise   43        19
Malmo         25        14

Group E
United        91        64
Sociedad      80        29
Omonia        15         4
Sheriff       14         3

Group F
Lazio         78        50
Feyenoord     66        26
Midtjylland   33        13 
Sturm Graz    23        11

Group G
Freiburg      68        39
Olympiacos    63        30
Nantes        48        21
Qarabag       21        10

Group H
Monaco        86        50
Red Star      48        19
Trabzonspor   42        17
Ferencvaros   24        14

More than 50% chance either Arsenal or United fails to win the group and has to face a third place CL team. United hosts Sociedad Thursday, in one to watch. Lazio also hosts Feyenoord, if you are so inclined.

157. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 02, 2022 at 04:51 PM (#6094233)

United/Arsenal will be just the third top 6 matchup of the season. (Chelsea/Spurs and United/Liverpool). 2 in 5 weeks is very low, since there are 30 matchups for 38 weeks. On a quick look I think the next 10 weeks have at least one matchup each week.

Both the prior Top 6 matchups were quite exciting, and there's good reason to think this one could be too, as the odds are just about totally even--United's deficit in quality made up pretty exactly by them having home field advantage.

158. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 03, 2022 at 09:30 AM (#6094284)

Another draw for Liverpool. Were it not for the last second goal against Newcastle they'd still be winless. They haven't been bad, but they haven't been good enough to really challenge City either. They'll have to play a lot better to make the rest of the season interesting.

edit: oh, except for the Bournemouth slaughter. Not sure how I could have forgotten that one.

159. Mefisto Posted: September 03, 2022 at 12:15 PM (#6094289)

I just watched the first half of Chelsea/West Ham. Chelsea's lineup mostly makes sense -- I assume Gallagher got the start because all their first team players are otherwise unavailable, though at least he's in his normal position -- but I don't understand their approach. West Ham are predictably sitting deep, but neither Pulisic nor Sterling are attempting to get in behind. That means the build up is labored, with only James making much happen. Also, I expected Koulibaly to be very good and he's only been ok.

160. SoSH U at work Posted: September 03, 2022 at 02:39 PM (#6094299)

I just watched the highlights and I can't believe the own goal was wiped out in the Newcastle-Palace game. I don't think it's possible for Willock's body to move that way in air if he hasn't been shoved from behind.

161. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: September 03, 2022 at 04:24 PM (#6094317)

VAR has been shocking so far this season. This may be some kind of bias speaking, but I am almost positive it has gotten more calls wrong than it has right. At least from the games I have watched.

162. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 03, 2022 at 05:39 PM (#6094327)

Sevilla has been bad this calendar year, overall performing poorly. They also didn't make it out of the group stage last year anyway. I realize Dortmund has had their own issues, but they are, and should be, solid favorites to advance over Sevilla.

We'll see if Sevilla has anything when they host City this week. They had zilch against Barca today.

Another underperformer that you would think should have more promise is Leipzig. They got shellacked by Frankfurt today though, no longer have any real shot at winning the league, and are starting to make their top 4 chase a little bit uncertain.

163. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 03, 2022 at 07:07 PM (#6094330)

I guess on that Newcastle play the question is whether the arm in the back made the difference, or if there would have been a big collision with the GK anyway without the arm in the back. I just saw it a couple times and am not sure, but in the EPL I thought it was supposed to be clear/obvious for an overrule. So, for that reason alone probably should have stood. Also, there would have been some karmic justice in having the player committing a foul scoring an own goal as a result.

I think the West Ham one was rightly disallowed, much as it pains me to say it. Clear silly cheap shot by the offensive player--reap what you sow.

The one in the City game is stupid, but all the Villa fans complaining are also making too big a deal of it. The whistle blew and the players stopped defending, which is what gave Coutinho the yard of space he needed for the clear shot. Also Ederson was not fully engaged to stop it either. Yeah it's a dumb mistake by the ref, but there's no way to know if Villa would have scored without a whistle--odds are generally unlikely though.

As a broader point, this kind of thing has been brought about by fans and announcers just "knowing" when plays are offside, and demanding the flag be raised and whistle be blown sooner, which they have been trying to implement this year. This kind of result is going to happen on occasion under the new standards. Any fans that complained about this over the past two years should STFU now.

edit: it was the linesman not the ref actually, so it was really the linesman's fault, not the ref. That is, since the play was still in the middle of the field the linesman's flag signals to the ref that the linesman was fairly sure it was offside. (Alternatively, the linesman saw Coutinho running back to recover the ball and judged that it was a close play but was going "away from goal" meaning he should raise his flag anyway.) Regardless, it was almost certainly the linesman under pressure due to the new standards for calling offside which cause him to raise the flag in error.

164. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: September 03, 2022 at 07:10 PM (#6094331)

I guess on that play is whether the arm in the back made the difference, or if there would have been a big collision with the GK anyway without it. I just saw it a couple times and am not sure, but in the EPL I thought it was supposed to be clear/obvious for an overrule.

Note, this was originally given, and overruled on VAR.

Also, you missed the red card tackle VVD didn't get in your roundup.

165. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 03, 2022 at 08:03 PM (#6094356)

Right, I was trying to say that I'm surprised VAR overruled the Newcastle goal because it didn't seem clear/obvious.

The VVD one is I'm not surprised VAR didn't overrule. It was an "orange" tackle, and VAR has been mostly staying out of those all year, and all last year too I think. If it had been red on the field VAR probably lets it go.

It was a bad tackle, but VVD may have been saved by the position of the Everton player's foot facing directly at VVD (protecting the ankle) and also being slightly off the ground so it was able to move back with the contact. Made it look a lot less bad than it probably was in reality.

Even so, I think the Everton player did have to come off not long after? He was hobbled for sure. A red definitely would not have been unfair.

Of all these plays, only one of these is on VAR (Newcastle).

The Liverpool play is the same thing we've seen repeatedly. Maybe those should be reds, but if so they will have to make a new standard to have either the refs call them tighter on the field or more leeway for VAR to intervene. The West Ham play was a foul all day if the ref sees it live. It's just stupid the way it turned out to bite West Ham badly. The offside goal was a mistake by the linesman but we're going to get a few of those this year due to standards the fans begged for, and anyway unlike the other three plays it did not reverse a goal or red card IMHO, just a potential chance for a goal. And it wasn't a VAR play anyway.

166. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 04, 2022 at 11:23 AM (#6094445)

Leicester is so bad right now. Underscores just how mediocre United were against them a few days ago. Bournemouth with the big reversal against Forest yesterday. Probably dooms them both to relegation.

                  current   pre-season
relegation
Bournemouth          65         65 
Forest               52         41.5

Leicester            28.5        6.5
Everton              25.5       22
Fulham               24.5       39
Southampton          22         24.5
Leeds                19.5       30
Wolves               18         15

Villa                14          4 
Brentford            11.5       24
Palace                9.5       11.5
West Ham              6.5        3.5

Newcastle             1.75       3
Brighton              1.5       10

Top 6                  0.25      0.25

167. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 04, 2022 at 11:47 AM (#6094448)

Clear foul by Odegaard to reverse the goal on VAR. Yes he had hands on the back of Eriksen, but more importantly his thigh took out Eriksen's leg, and I think he caught him on the heel too. No touch on the ball either. It's only "soft" in the sense that it's not always called on the field if the play isn't that important.

168. Mefisto Posted: September 04, 2022 at 12:34 PM (#6094455)

Yeah, I don't see why that foul was controversial.

Arsenal are successfully keeping the ball after the first 10 minutes or so, which means United are mostly playing counter-attacking football. I doubt Ten Hag chose his tactics that way, but it does play to United's strengths.

169. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 04, 2022 at 01:42 PM (#6094457)

Winner and top 4 odds. The big 6 teams are pulling away from everybody, with the exception of Brighton (who betting odds still doesn't much respect)

 
                 current   pre-season
winner
City                71         57

Liverpool           11         26
Arsenal              6          2.5
Tottenham            5.5        6
United               3          2
Chelsea              2.5        5

Field                1          1.5

top 4
City                97.5       96.5

Liverpool           73         87
Tottenham           63         59.5
Arsenal             61         37.5
Chelsea             44         56
United              39         30


Newcastle            7.5        8.5
Brighton             7          3
West Ham             2.5        5.5
Palace               1.5        1.5
Villa                0.75       4.5

Field                3.25      10.5 (Leicester, Wolves, Everton went from 7.5% to less than 1%)

170. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 04, 2022 at 02:54 PM (#6094465)

Most highly rated teams not in the CL this year are still all EPL and La Liga teams. I'm guessing it would be something like: Arsenal, United, Villarreal, Newcastle, Betis, Sociedad, Brighton, Bilbao. Maybe mix in to the bottom few of these: PSV, Union Berlin, Atalanta, Roma, Lazio, and Lyon.

By ELO, it's Arsenal, Villarreal, United, Betis, Brighton, and PSV, with Roma, Newcastle, West Ham, Sociedad, Union Berlin, Palace, Bilbao, and Atalanta as the next 8.
By 538, it's Arsenal, Villarreal, Brighton, PSV, United, and Sociedad, with Roma, Lyon, Bilbao, Atalanta, Newcastle, Feyenoord, Marseille, and Rennes as the next 8.

Most fancied team not to make the CL this year is clearly Arsenal.
Most fancied team not to make Europa this year is clearly Villarreal.
Most fancied team not to make europe at all by betting odds would likely be Newcastle, but ELO and 538 think it's Brighton. Lyon or Bilbao would probably be next by betting odds, maybe above Brighton or even Newcastle.

Least fancied team in the CL: Haifa (ELO has it as Copenhagen).
Least fancied team in Europa: HJK from Helsinki. This one is a unanimous choice, and not particularly close to second least fancied.
Least fancied team in the ECL is pretty fuzzy, there are solid contenders:
Ballkani (Kosovo), Vaduz (Liechtenstein, plays in the Swiss second division), Žalgiris (Lithuania), Shamrock (Ireland), Pyunik (Armenia), and Riga (Latvia) are the bottom 6 by 538 and betting odds, and all I think are bottom 6 in straight ELO except Vaduz. These are some true minnows on the European scene, but I think probably the biggest ones of all are Ballkani and Pyunik, not even the best teams in Kosovo/Armenia most years, and the teams with slightly worse betting odds than the others.

Zalgiris and Pyunik are in the same group, so maybe we can get a feel for which one is better when they face off head-to-head in back-to-back October Thursdays (the 6th and 13th). Be sure to mark those dates on your calendar!

171. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 04, 2022 at 03:23 PM (#6094469)

Also, it's quire ironic that fans are now turning on VAR for ruling out goals that were offside. The rules are clear in the case of the Brighton goal. Fans aren't upset that the call is wrong, they are upset that their moment was ruined. The only way to fix that is by getting rid of VAR altogether, so erroneous calls made on the field stand without review, for better or worse. Fine by me!

172. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 05, 2022 at 04:08 PM (#6094599)

The majority thinks the Bowen/Mendy play was an egregious overuse of VAR, but there is a sizable group that thinks it was correct for VAR to intervene.

For me, I think it's 100% a foul. Bowen gets there late and drags his left leg in, intentionally creating contact, raking Mendy's fingers and kicking him (relatively lightly) in the chest and shoulder. That was entirely avoidable and entirely on Bowen. Whether his motivations were to make a little cheap shot or to create contact in case there was a chance to dive for the penalty is not clear, but he was nowhere near the ball and could have avoided almost all the contact with Mendy with relative ease.

The much harder question is whether VAR should have intervened at all, because even if it is a foul I don't think they are supposed to get involved after the fact unless it's a red card offense (which it wasn't) or materially affected the play. Here it gets fuzzy, as you could reasonably argue that either Mendy was actually affected enough getting his body and especially fingers kicked that it would have affected his ability to continue with the play. (There was a fairly immediate reaction of pain from him before all the feigning of injury that came later.) Or alternatively you could argue that Mendy saw the contact coming, knew he would be fouled, and that affected his decision to parry rather than catch the ball.

Mendy's own actions not trying to continue with the play are something we constantly praise offensive players for--i.e., to get the refs attention when they are actually fouled in the box. It's not fair to blame Mendy for doing the same thing here.

I'm a little bit on the fence as to whether VAR should have intervened, but I don't think it's at all a slam dunk that they should not have. We see worse VAR decisions and non-decisions every single week IMHO. What seals this particular play for me, personally, has nothing to do with VAR itself--I just have zero sympathy for actions like Bowen's that are half dirty. Just jump over Mendy and you win the game. Trying to get a little cheap shot in you get what you deserve.

173. SoSH U at work Posted: September 05, 2022 at 04:38 PM (#6094603)

Just jump over Mendy and you win the game.

Draw the game, but yes. I'm similarly not very sympathetic. It looked like he could have avoided contact with Mendy without much trouble.

I think that play could have gone either way. I don't see how the Newcastle goal was waved off (bias alert, though I haven't seen many unbiased observers argue otherwise). The claim was the VAR only showed the referee one angle, which seems just bizarre regardless of how the call turned out.

174. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 06, 2022 at 02:43 PM (#6094779)

Well that was a bad game by Chelsea. Terrible for 75 minutes and not enough in the last 25 (including extra time).

If Chelsea had to lose any game, this was the one to lose. They need to win the ones at home and not lose to Salzburg and Milan.

Chelsea will finally fall out of the top 10 in 538 and ELO ratings after today. They haven't played like a top 10 team at any time this year (except maybe half the game against Spurs), so that's overdue.

edit: also, while this is a big upset, it's not any kind of historic. Zagreb is at least as good as the weakest few teams in the EPL, and they were at home.

175. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 06, 2022 at 03:14 PM (#6094787)

by infogol, xG on the Chelsea game:
1st 70 minutes: 0.62-0.32 to Zagreb
last 20 minutes: 0.00-0.55 to Chelsea.

176. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 06, 2022 at 04:18 PM (#6094802)

Shakhtar has goals on both of its shots, away to Leipzig. A win by Shakhtar would open the door a bit for both Shakhtar and Celtic to sneak through ahead of Leipzig.

177. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 06, 2022 at 04:26 PM (#6094806)

Haaland through 3/4 of the game already has six shots from the 6-yard box or very close to it. By infogol xG of 2.4. Yowzers.

178. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 06, 2022 at 04:44 PM (#6094808)

Shakhtar has four goals on five shots. Now up 4-1 away. Second place in this group just got very interesting.

179. jmurph Posted: September 07, 2022 at 06:50 AM (#6094946)

Well he is coming up on that 2 year mark in January, I think only Mourinho has survived longer.

*Cough, cough.*

So you're telling me just randomly buying players like it's a video game is not a great team-building strategy? (How this is Tuchel's fault is beyond me.)

180. Spivey Posted: September 07, 2022 at 07:14 AM (#6094947)

Chelsea have had a lot of brilliant attackers that have come through and Tuchel hasn’t been able to get literally any of them to play near their best. I think he deserves criticism for that. He also won a CL, they probably outplayed Real Madrid last year, and have done well if not great in the league. I don’t know who they think is better that’s available.

181. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 07, 2022 at 07:23 AM (#6094948)

Where does Tuchel end up? Leipzig is looking for a new coach.

Two upsets yesterday—two sackings.

182. jmurph Posted: September 07, 2022 at 07:51 AM (#6094952)

Well Poch and Zidane are available, so they might just stumble their way into another good manager.

But yeah I agree he deserves criticism, they should be better now and probably should have been closer to the leaders last year.

183. jmurph Posted: September 07, 2022 at 07:57 AM (#6094956)

Twitter seems to think Chelsea are after Potter, which is interesting.

I'm probably blanking on an obvious answer to this, but when was the last time the oft-discussed "give (youngish overachieving manager at a small club) a big budget and see what he can do!" actually happened? Howe to Newcastle isn't quite what I have in mind.

184. Spivey Posted: September 07, 2022 at 07:58 AM (#6094957)

It’s hard to imagine Zidane not just waiting to see if the France job comes available in 4 months.

185. The_Ex Posted: September 07, 2022 at 08:21 AM (#6094963)

Interesting choice for Potter. Do you move for the big money but know its a risky job with a high variance squad and owner. Or stay for the stable environment?

186. jmurph Posted: September 07, 2022 at 08:41 AM (#6094966)

I think going to them now, after the transfer window closed, in this crazy winter World Cup year is a bad idea. Could easily flame out and set himself back years.

187. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 07, 2022 at 08:46 AM (#6094970)

Coaches almost always move for the big money. Yeah it might be miserable and he might be fired after one or two years, but once a manager reaches the big clubs he becomes a name that will be looked at whenever another new big club needs a manager. In the worst case he will get passed up by other big clubs and become rehired by a team like Brighton. Stay at Brighton and if their fortunes turn to the negative he may not ever get the look from the big teams again.

Has Potter actually been offered a very high profile job yet? Coaches at this level are highly ambitious and rarely pass up the opportunity to take the next step up.

188. jmurph Posted: September 07, 2022 at 08:58 AM (#6094972)

Coaches almost always move for the big money. Yeah it might be miserable and he might be fired after one or two years, but once a manager reaches the big clubs he becomes a name that will be looked at whenever another new big club needs a manager. In the worst case he will get passed up by other big clubs and become rehired by a team like Brighton. Stay at Brighton and if their fortunes turn to the negative he may not ever get the look from the big teams again.

I think this is probably correct but there just aren't a ton of recent examples in England. Brendan Rodgers I would say moderately goes against this idea (though Liverpool were not nearly as good as they are now when he got hired). Sure he's been talked about for other bigger jobs recently but didn't get one, and sure as hell doesn't look to be on the path to one at the moment.

Poch is the only good one I can think of at the moment, but there are probably others.

EDIT: Moyes is another one that goes against this idea, and OGS will almost certainly not get another big job.

189. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 07, 2022 at 09:20 AM (#6094975)

OGS was not a universally well regarded coach waiting for the next step, unlike the others. The only big job he had any shot for was United, and he was hired as caretaker. Fail there under those circumstances and he was unlikely to get another shot right away, if ever.

Moyes failed spectacularly yes, but he was hired at Real Sociedad immediately (before not doing very well and being fired again...), taking a year at Sunderland (getting relegated in the process), and now being at West Ham. That's kind of a worst case scenario and he's now basically back to where he was at Everton.

If Chelsea is a job doomed to fail from the getgo then yeah stay away from it because he will likely (but not certainly) get another shot in the next couple years. Do well for a couple years at Chelsea before things fall apart though and he will likely be a fixture in the big time.

Plus I'm sure the money is nice.

190. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 07, 2022 at 10:19 AM (#6094986)

Tuchel's trajectory at Chelsea was very similar to Conte's and Mourinho's, at least in terms of results. All oversaw a dramatic improvement upon taking over followed by a collapse.

Yes, it's not an uncommon coaching trajectory in general, but in all 3 cases here it was starker than normal (both up and down) and over a pretty short time period.

191. KronicFatigue Posted: September 07, 2022 at 10:46 AM (#6094992)

While TT's style isn't "park the bus", it is very defense oriented. He seemed like the type of guy who could figure out how to beat the better Man City, but there was little chance of Chelsea beating the weaker teams 4-1.

As others have said, Chelsea has gone through a lot of attackers, and they've all failed. The odds of that happening, without it being on the tactics, are pretty low.

192. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 07, 2022 at 11:48 AM (#6095018)

Another point about Potter is this--right now--is probably Brighton's realistic ceiling. Yes, they could be playing in the ECL or EL next year, but unless they really open the checkbook they are never likely to finish higher than 7th, and most likely even with Potter in the next few years even staying in the top half of the league most of the time would be a big accomplishment. There are teams with much bigger resources now that will be fighting hard to crowd them out--obviously the top 6 plus Newcastle, but then there are also teams like Villa, West Ham and Everton as well.

By transfermarkt Brighton is right near the bottom of the league, sandwiched between newly promoted teams Fulham and Forest in overall value, and only meaningfully ahead of Bournemouth. It's extremely hard to stay highly competitive with that resource disadvantage. (edit: and this is also why betting odds always seems "rosy" on teams like United and "negative" on teams like Brighton. There is such a thing as long term over- and under- performance relative to resources, and it's correct to factor in some regression in the odds.)

Potter's stock right now is high and might never get higher staying at Brighton.

193. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 07, 2022 at 02:46 PM (#6095057)

Rangers got beat by Ajax, and badly. They can still maybe take third and EL with a lot of luck, but the knock-out stages are out of their reach now.

It's almost the same with Frankfurt. This was a must-not lose game at home, where Sporting had done nothing for 60 minutes. Then boom 3 goals in 15 minutes and Frankfurt is now in a deep hole. Sporting with the big road win is now the clear favorite for 2nd in the group after Spurs.

194. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 07, 2022 at 03:24 PM (#6095064)

Two penalties against Liverpool already. The first one extremely well deserved (if I could, I would have awarded two penalties for that...). The second one also probably deserved, but you could argue the foul had no impact on the play since the ball was likely already gone.

Allisson saved though! Still 1-0.

Just have to say: this was an overrule on VAR and in many ways was very similar to the Bowen/Mendy play. There was a clear foul that probably had no impact on the play, given via overrule on VAR, maybe in part due to the player fouled staying down and rolling around. Will there be an outcry of "worst call evah" after this one? Doubtful, as it was early in the game rather than in extra time, because the PK was saved anyway, and, most importantly, because calling the foul gave a penalty (and thus a goal scoring chance, which fans generally like) rather than take away a goal from play (which fans absolutely hate).

If you want a common theme from the complaints in the EPL over the weekend it's this: fans absolutely hate it when goal are called back--it really doesn't matter what the rules say. This puts the refs and VAR in a basically impossible position. Yeah refs/VAR could be better, but I'm sorry--you can't be both always correct and never calling back any goals.

195. Spivey Posted: September 07, 2022 at 03:51 PM (#6095066)

Liverpool looking nice. Given up 3.5 xG in one half. Milner is so done. Klopp is a brilliant manager but I don’t get it. Tbf to Milner the whole defense and midfield looks slow and unmotivated. Van Dijk is so off his level from a few years ago.

196. The Marksist Posted: September 07, 2022 at 04:02 PM (#6095067)

What if Liverpool are Actually Bad and the last few years were pure luck? They look lost enough tonight that I half believe it!

Truly, though, the midfield looks cooked and Van Dijk has been mediocre. I'd venture to guess that explains everything that's going on right now. They're vulnerable to counter attacks in a way they haven't been for the past three years and they aren't creating enough to make up for it. Maybe with Thiago back they can stabilize, but they're gonna have to find the desire and it looks like that's gone, too.

197. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 07, 2022 at 04:04 PM (#6095068)

Had a work call so missed the rest of the half. Livepool WTF...

edit: to respond to the above, Liverpool was an extremely good team playing over its head for three/four years, making them look like a generational great team, which I don't think they ever were. Every year they surprised me a bit, so I'm not shocked they are worse than people are expecting now.

That said, nobody should expect them to be this bad. They are a better team than Napoli but not by so much that getting beaten on the road would be shameful. This is ridiculous though.

198. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 07, 2022 at 04:16 PM (#6095072)

Assuming Liverpool goes on to lose, this group just got very hard for them. Rangers didn't give Ajax a game today, and have that holds true for most of the group stage, these head-to-head games are vital. Liverpool might not be able to lose any of the other three against Ajax/Napoli, and if they lose by multiple goals again they are almost certainly not going through.

199. The Marksist Posted: September 07, 2022 at 04:16 PM (#6095073)

I'm a pretty realistic fan, so I had a pretty clear idea of the fact that Liverpool were beating the odds. And I know this isn't how variance works, but it sure looks like all those luck chickens have come home to roost!

200. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 07, 2022 at 04:18 PM (#6095075)

Haven't watched a minute of the Spurs game, but there are a multitude of very low percentage shots from both sides. A draw by Spurs at home would be a bad result in that group, especially with Sporting winning on the road already by 3 goals.

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