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Thursday, August 11, 2022

OT Soccer Thread - European Leages Return

The new season kicks off in Europe without a peep from the BBTF cognoscenti. Are the fans turned off by the stratospheric player salaries? Dismayed at increasing stratification in domestic leagues? Bored with the prospect of more meaningless Champions League group games? Gearing up for a World Cup boycott? Or, you know, just kind of tired in general. Whatever the reason, we can’t go without a soccer thread, surely!

The Marksist Posted: August 11, 2022 at 02:20 PM | 261 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off-topic, soccer

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   201. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 07, 2022 at 05:03 PM (#6095086)
Three goals in extra time after a slow one for 90 minutes. Atleti beats 10-man Porto.
   202. Miserable, Non-Binary Candy is all we deserve CoB Posted: September 07, 2022 at 05:22 PM (#6095088)
A draw by Spurs at home would be a bad result in that group

It would have been ... luckily, it was not to be.
   203. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 07, 2022 at 06:06 PM (#6095097)
Yeah two very nice headers by Richarlison. One could have been saved but they were both very good anyway.
   204. Mefisto Posted: September 07, 2022 at 06:41 PM (#6095107)
I agree with 197, but...

LFC's current midfield is missing a lot due to injuries, which undermines their defense because their tactics depend on pressure on the opponents and their current midfield isn't capable of that pressure. That causes more problems for a defense which often has both outside backs playing very high.

I'm sure Klopp knows this and I don't know why he hasn't changed tactics; maybe he expects players back soon and doesn't want to switch the system. But I do think they'll be better -- though not world beaters -- when their injury woes subside.
   205. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 07, 2022 at 08:45 PM (#6095155)
Champions league revised group odds to advance:
              ORIGINAL   CURRENT
Group A
Liverpool        88        79 (still very high, much higher than 538)
Ajax             49        66
Napoli           44        49
Rangers          19         6

Group B
Atleti           75        89
Porto            54        48
Brugge           19        33
Leverkusen       52        30

Group C    
Bayern           86        96
Barcelona        66        80
Inter            45        23
Pizen             3         1

Group D
Tottenham        81        90
Sporting         33        62
Marseille        43        32
Frankfurt        43        16

Group E
Chelsea          88        79   (still very high!)
Milan            74        78
Salzburg         30        28
Dinamo            8        15

Group F 
Real Madrid      94        97
Leipzig          72        42
Celtic           25        37   (got shellacked but odds went up a lot anyway)
Shakhtar          9        24

Group G
City             94        98
Dortmund         61        74
Sevilla          37        24
Copenhagen        8         4

Group H
PSG              92        97
Juve             82        62
Benfica          25        40
Haifa             3         1
   206. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 07, 2022 at 11:36 PM (#6095180)
A Porto player was sent off in the 81st minute of the 0-0 game for a dive in the box--his second yellow. A very good call by the ref too.

Atleti scored two goals in the final 20 minutes up a man (including one at the death), but did give up a penalty on a blatant handball worse than the one from Milner today.
   207. spivey Posted: September 08, 2022 at 07:25 AM (#6095190)
Looks like Potter to Chelsea. Makes sense for both sides. Chelsea is a tough job but you have to take the world class jobs when you get an option. A tough run of form can prevent you from ever getting another chance.
   208. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 08, 2022 at 08:25 AM (#6095194)
Chelsea's fate is a bit in the balance this year right now. Betting odds has them as still quite likely to advance in the CL, but 538 has them at just 50%. The game in 6 days home to Salzburg is a game they absolutely cannot lose, and even a draw would be pretty bad.

In the EPL, they do have Fulham this weekend, but it's on the road and Fulham have not been pushovers this season. Next weekend they have Liverpool. Top 4 odds are only a little above 40% right now.

Potter's going to be thrown right in the deep end immediately. The next week and a half until the international break are going to be a whirlwind. I doubt he sleeps much.
   209. The Marksist Posted: September 08, 2022 at 09:05 AM (#6095200)
LFC's current midfield is missing a lot due to injuries, which undermines their defense because their tactics depend on pressure on the opponents and their current midfield isn't capable of that pressure. That causes more problems for a defense which often has both outside backs playing very high.


Firm agree. This is, I think, exacerbated by Trent taking up that inside position more and more frequently and the lack of cover from Harvey Elliott. It was always possible to exploit Trent (a vulnerability Klopp is clearly ok with), but it's significantly easier now with the personnel that Liverpool is running out.

If Henderson and Thiago can't stay fit, I think this season will be season full of sucker-punch goals and frustrating draws where they create enough but can't keep a clean sheet.
   210. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 08, 2022 at 09:29 AM (#6095205)
It definitely was not all the midfield yesterday.

Joe Gomez had a shockingly bad first half and then was substituted. Yes the midfield made the job on the defense harder, but on top of that there were so many mistakes by Gomez leading to goals, big chances, and penalties. Just watching the highlights I've rarely seen a player looks so bad repeatedly. He was substituted at the half.

On the VVD penalty play not only did VVD give up the penalty, he also was dropping with the runner all alone 5 yards deep of the high defensive line, playing him onside the whole way. That's two errors on one play.
   211. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 08, 2022 at 10:44 AM (#6095215)
Revised CL overall odds:
          PRE-DRAW    CURRENT
city         26         28.5

psg          14         14.5
bayern       12         12.5
liverpool    14         10

real madrid   7          7
barcelona     6          7

tottenham     4          5.25
chelsea       4          3.75

atleti        2          2
milan         1          1.25
napoli        0.4        1.25
juve          2          1
dortmund      1          1
ajax          1          1
inter         2          0.75

porto         0.25       0.35
leipzig       1          0.3
benfica       0.4        0.3
leverkusen    0.2        0.3
sporting      0.15       0.3
marseille     0.2        0.25
salzburg      0.2        0.25

sevilla       0.25       0.2
frankurt      0.2        0.15
celtic        0.15       0.15

last 7        0.5        0.5

Of the favorites, only Chelsea and Liverpool have lost ground. Pre-draw odds do not reflect group difficulty. Chelsea would have won or at the very least drawn with that performance on another day, and they were not one of the top favorites anyway, so I'm not sure how much new information we are supposed to take from that loss. Betting odds reflect that as well. Liverpool on the other hand did not look like one of the few top favorites, and the betting odds reflect that as well.
   212. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 08, 2022 at 11:04 AM (#6095220)
United is supposedly going to heavily rotate for the game against Sociedad. I guess it kind of makes sense based on the schedule, as rotating against Sheriff next week I think is a must, they just played a critical one against Arsenal, and they have two league games this weekend and next. So rotating now rather than against Palace or waiting all the way to Sheriff makes good sense with the timing of the games.

That said though, if the goal is to win trophies and even just to make the CL next year (which I think should be the biggest two goals for this team), then the Real Sociedad game this week is almost certainly higher leverage than the Palace or Leeds games. Even a draw at home against Sociedad probably outs them more likely to finish second in the group than first (or at least it would be close). A loss and they would have a hard time winning it.

There are some very good CL third place teams lurking for an extra round to advance in europa, so they don't want to finish second in the group. It would also add 2 more games to the schedule.
   213. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 08, 2022 at 02:53 PM (#6095271)
Arsenal played just well enough for the away win in Zurich. Combine that with PSV's surprising home draw though, and they are sitting very pretty in their group. If they beat PSV next week in London this group is basically over.

In the other big group playing today Betis won away while Roma lost away. That leaves Betis as very likely the winner of the group, with Roma likely having to settle for second. Still a lot of games left though.

Union Berlin lost at home--German teams other than Bayern have not done well so far in Europe. (Dortmund also did beat a minnow.)

Villareal gave up three goals at home somehow but still won.
   214. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 08, 2022 at 03:30 PM (#6095277)
Games in the UK supposedly cancelled this weekend and maybe next weekend too. Not sure what that means for the games in the european competitions next week.

As if we needed another reason to get rid of the monarchy once and for all...

At least I can do my long run Saturday morning without missing Potter's opener for Chelsea.

Potter has to be among the happiest people in the UK right now.

edit: and United started a fairly strong lineup against Sociedad. What did they know, and when did they know it!

edit2: thinking about this a little bit more--seems almost no way they can cancel or even postpone the european games next week, even the ones in England. I also very much doubt they cancel more than 1 round of games. Whether the ones this weekend are off seems to be the only real question to me.
   215. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 08, 2022 at 05:21 PM (#6095294)
I had to work so missed almost all the United game. Looks like they didn't give up much except the one penalty that sunk them. They didn't look that great going forward in the parts I saw though.

Major, major work cut out for them now to win the group. I would bet against it. Their odds of winning europa were likely cut 1/3 by this one game. Very poor result.

edit: just watching the penalty now. Seems harsh as the defender was pulling his arm towards his side, the ball came off his leg first and hit his elbow that was fairly close to his side when the ball actually hit him. Certainly seemed no intent to make himself bigger--only question is whether the arm should have been closer from the very beginning before turning and pulling it well in towards his side. So harsh and I suspect not given in the EPL. Seemed like less a penalty than even the one Oliver refused to overturn (which, ironically, I thought VAR was also right about and should have been no penalty, with Oliver wrong on the field.)
   216. Mefisto Posted: September 08, 2022 at 05:34 PM (#6095299)
Personally, I don't care about Europa so I'm happy Ten Hag rotated the lineup. That said, bad calls are always annoying.
   217. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: September 09, 2022 at 08:20 AM (#6095395)
To the surprise of no one english football postponed this weekend and it sounds like next weekend too.
   218. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 09, 2022 at 08:35 AM (#6095398)
I would have been pretty surprised if they cancelled next week's games. Except that almost all of them are actually scheduled for Sunday, and ... "Government advice says that no major events should be held on the day of the Queen's funeral -- the date of which has not yet been confirmed -- but is most likely to take place on either Sunday, Sept. 18 or Monday, Sept. 19."

If they postpone any more games they will have a seriously impossible scheduling problem. Also, not sure how they can really suspend the games in europe this year (though they are talking about that, too), with absolutely no room on the schedule before the WC.

edit: I'm reading mixed reports about whether English teams can get their games postponed. I think they should respect the queen's death with a true sacrifice--by forfeiting all their points for this week.
   219. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 09, 2022 at 08:45 AM (#6095399)
From twitter: "If people thought the roar was loud for the champions league anthem at Celtic park on Tuesday just wait till they hear the minutes silence for the Queen."

edit: I guess it's really Celtic who are the more republican, even now...
   220. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 09, 2022 at 09:13 AM (#6095400)
If they really wanted to suspend the european games for next week I would guess they move them to Oct 18-20, and reschedule that week of the EPL.

One lucky thing about that is there are actually 3 european team head-to-heads that week, so few games in the EPL would have to be moved:
Arsenal/City, Liverpool/WestHam, United/Spurs, and Chelsea/Fulham, all originally scheduled for 10/19. Also Rangers/Dundee and Celtic/Motherwell. Hearts does not seem to have a game.

Could the teams from the other leagues make this work, and would they be force to? No idea really.

Ajax/Napoli/Porto/PSV/Sheriff could probably play 10/19 without moving a game, as none seems to be scheduled now.
Salzburg/Shakhtar/Dortmund/Silkeborg/RFS might have to move a game.

It seems possible but not likely that UEFA would do this. The only other open week is after the end of the group stage, which seems really bad. Maybe they could reschedule on a weekend, moving other stuff around? That also seems bad.
   221. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 09, 2022 at 10:21 AM (#6095412)
Apparently a lot of other sporting events will resume in England starting as early as tomorrow. To me that means next weekend's EPL games will likely not be cancelled unless they are on the funeral day. I wonder if there is any possibility some EPL games could be moved to Saturday. Arsenal/United/WestHam all play Thursday, so they could not be moved.
   222. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 09, 2022 at 01:08 PM (#6095444)
It's now being reported that the european games this midweek are going ahead, even the ones in the UK like City/Dortmund.
   223. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 10, 2022 at 02:43 PM (#6095616)
Europa odds:
               TO ADVANCE              WINNER
           ORIGINAL  CURRENT    ORIGINAL  CURRENT
Group A
Arsenal       95        96        75        80
PSV           68        62        18        14
Bodo Glimt    22        30         4         5
Zurich        15        12         3         1

Group B
Rennes        74        82        38        48
Fenerbahce    63        77        35        37
Kyiv          43        34        19        13
AEK           20         7         8         2

Group C
Roma          93        81        59        49
Betis         87        83        34        43
Ludogorets    16        34         5         8
HJK            4         2         2        <1

Group D
Braga         63        80        32        43
Union Berlin  69        56        35        26
St Gilloise   43        53        19        24
Malmo         25        11        14         7

Group E
Sociedad      80        91        29        51
United        91        89        64        41
Sheriff       14        18         3         8
Omonia        15         2         4        <1


Group F
Lazio         78        83        50        61
Feyenoord     66        62        26        19
Sturm Graz    23        39        11        15
Midtjylland   33        16        13         5


Group G
Freiburg      68        78        39        45
Nantes        48        64        21        32
Olympiacos    63        45        30        18
Qarabag       21        13        10         5

Group H
Monaco        86        90        50        62
Ferencvaros   24        44        14        17
Red Star      48        37        19         8
Trabzonspor   42        29        17        13


   224. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 11, 2022 at 11:59 AM (#6095748)
Union Berlin is leading the Bundesliga, and also has the second best GD after Bayern. They are a decent team and have played a pretty hard schedule to this point, but there's still quite a bit of smoke and mirrors to this point. xGD is -0.9 on the season by understat, and even worse by bbref and infogol.

After the top 3 in the Bundesliga, it's hard to know who will step up for the 4th CL spot. Leverkusen looks a bit worse than they have been in recent years, and have also had a horrible start, bringing them back to the chasing pack of Union, Freiburg, Gladbach, Hoffenheim, Koln, Eintracht, and Mainz.
   225. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 11, 2022 at 03:41 PM (#6095768)
Salernitana up 0-2 against Juve in Turin at the half. A loss by Juve would leave them trailing Salernitana in the table after 6 games, so would be quite amusing.
   226. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 11, 2022 at 05:48 PM (#6095779)
Juve came back to score the apparent winner on the very last kick. Reversed by VAR b/c Bonucci tried to head the ball from an offside position as it passed by him, though he didn't get a touch on it.

Correctly ruled out b/c the keeper had to play the ball and Bonucci both (in case Bonucci were to contact the ball and change its trajectory( while Bonucci is offside. Announcers can't seem to figure that out.

In the process Juve have two guys sent off who will now miss the next game, one for a second yellow for taking off his shirt for the apparent winner. Ooos.
   227. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 11, 2022 at 07:09 PM (#6095784)
May have spoken too soon--there was another Salernitana defender almost out of the picture that VAR potentially missed entirely. Still images seem to show that he may have been playing Bonucci onside, but it's not 100% definitive as the line-drawers are mostly not unbiased observers. Serie A denies it, saying that the player was taken into account.
   228. The Marksist Posted: September 13, 2022 at 05:04 PM (#6095981)
Welp, Liverpool dominated that match without really creating the kind of chances you'd like to see. Midfield looked better, but still vulnerable, especially on the left. Announcers were on Trent again, and he did make a mistake on the Ajax goal, but I have to assume he's doing basically what Klopp wants him to do. If he were being told to take more conservative positions, he would, so this must be the tradeoff Klopp is willing to make.
   229. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 13, 2022 at 06:12 PM (#6095996)
Lots of upsets today. Sporting and Brugge (!!) are winning their groups. Brugge is now favored to advance, but it's considered a 3 team race for two spots. Two games against Atleti coming up should be very interesting. Atleti is still favored to win the group.

Bayern looked shaky but escaped with the win, and now are sitting pretty. Two Barca/Inter games coming up likely will decide second place in the group. Barca is a big favorite to advance.

Liverpool dominated that game so I'm not especially worried, though they don't look quite as sharp as they should. Ajax is supposed to be a very decent team though, and it's early in the season. Liverpool has Rangers twice next, so we might not learn too much more about them until they face Ajax on the road in late October.

Spurs/Sporting are now considered very strong favorites to advance. 50/50 for who is expected to be group winner.
   230. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 14, 2022 at 04:48 PM (#6096116)
If you haven't yet seen the Cancelo to Haaland goal, you probably should.
   231. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 14, 2022 at 05:19 PM (#6096118)
Potter's debut was not a success. They did a lot of things well but had to settle for the draw. It's uphill now in the group with this one being at home and Milan winning.

Dortmund stifled City for most of the game, but City was too good in the end. Sevilla only drew Copenhagen though, so Dortmund is probably bigger favorites to advance than they were before the day started. And how bad is Sevilla...?


Juve looked bad at home against Benfica in a game they couldn't afford to lose. They are probably headed for Europa now.
   232. Mefisto Posted: September 14, 2022 at 05:54 PM (#6096126)
It'll be interesting to see the xG on Haaland's goal.
   233. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 14, 2022 at 06:01 PM (#6096130)
.56 by infogol, which is way too high. Yes it was close to the goal and it was with his foot, but only because he is a ####### freak.
   234. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: September 14, 2022 at 06:08 PM (#6096131)
I mentioned this in exile-land, but I think I will just refer to Haaland as Thanos from now on. He is inevitable.
   235. Mefisto Posted: September 14, 2022 at 08:21 PM (#6096153)
He can't be bargained with, he can't be reasoned with....
   236. spivey Posted: September 14, 2022 at 08:28 PM (#6096155)
Dortmund actually won xG which shocks me.

Some weird results.

Celtic look good in a road draw, think it's reasonable to think nabbing 2nd could be there for them.

Benfica clown Juventus.

PSG have another match where they look just ok.

Sevilla still sucks.

And Napoli is the best team in the world.
   237. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 14, 2022 at 08:47 PM (#6096163)
              ORIGINAL  AFTER R1  CURRENT
Group A
Liverpool        88        79       84
Napoli           44        66       78 
Ajax             49        49       37
Rangers          19         6        1

Group B
Atleti           75        89       74     
Brugge           19        33       54  
Leverkusen       52        30       53
Porto            54        48       19

Group C    
Bayern           86        96       98
Barcelona        66        80       74
Inter            45        23       28
Pizen             3         1       <1

Group D
Sporting         33        62       82
Tottenham        81        90       81
Frankfurt        43        16       26
Marseille        43        32       11

Group E
Milan            74        78       82
Chelsea          88        79       69 
Salzburg         30        28       33
Dinamo            8        15       16

Group F 
Real Madrid      94        97      >99
Leipzig          72        42       46
Shakhtar          9        24       28
Celtic           25        37       26

Group G
City             94        98      >99
Dortmund         61        74       74
Sevilla          37        24       24
Copenhagen        8         4        2

Group H
PSG              92        97       98
Benfica          25        40       87
Juventus         82        62       15     (in one game, got crushed in betting odds)
Haifa             3         1       <1
   238. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 14, 2022 at 08:53 PM (#6096164)
Dortmund only had 5 shots, but two of them were big chances, and one came off a corner. The real issue is that City didn't create big chances of their own.
   239. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 14, 2022 at 09:14 PM (#6096169)
After two games, 538 still has massive disagreement with betting odds about a few teams. 538 really likes Ajax, Brugge, Salzburg; and 538 really dislikes Chelsea and Leipzig.

538 was "proven" right about Sporting, Benfica, and Juve, but has been "proven" wrong about Porto. Jury's still out on the other three of the seven they massively disagreed with betting odds: Ajax, Salzburg, and Celtic, all of which are not far from where they started in both betting odds and 538.

Overall, teams outside the top 5 leagues have done much better than expected by everyone (betting odds and 538), so that's an edge to 538, who has liked the rest of europe relatively much more than betting odds.

This is the worst Juve has been since before Conte took over in 2011.
   240. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 15, 2022 at 01:03 PM (#6096260)
Ronaldo's speed has gone so much now that he looks for penalties constantly rather than beating opponents down the field to get a clear shot. Hard to watch.

The announcers said that Sheriff "casts their net far and wide" when looking for players, including all the way to Turkey. Only problem with that is that Tiraspol is not that far from Istanbul.

edit: a win today would be nice for United, but it would only be a small step. Unless things break their way, to finish first in the group they'll have to perform well in all 4 of these games against Sheriff and Omonia, and then also beat Sociedad in Spain. To finish second in the group they could probably sleepwalk their way through the next 5 games.
   241. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 15, 2022 at 01:21 PM (#6096265)
Revised CL overall odds:
          PRE-DRAW    CURRENT
city         26         29.25

psg          14         15
bayern       12         13
liverpool    14         10.5

real madrid   7          7.5
barcelona     6          6.5

tottenham     4          4
chelsea       4          3

napoli        0.4        1.75
atleti        2          1.5
milan         1          1.5

dortmund      1          1
ajax          1          1
benfica       0.4        1

inter         2          0.75
juve          2          0.5

sporting      0.15       0.35
leipzig       1          0.3
leverkusen    0.2        0.3
salzburg      0.2        0.3

sevilla       0.25       0.15
frankurt      0.2        0.15
porto         0.25       0.15
brugge        0.05       0.15
marseille     0.2        0.1

last 7        0.6        0.25
   242. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 15, 2022 at 02:21 PM (#6096280)
Lazio getting blown out 5-1 by Midtjylland, somehow.
   243. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 15, 2022 at 02:40 PM (#6096287)
Ballkani (Kosovo), Vaduz (Liechtenstein, plays in the Swiss second division), Žalgiris (Lithuania), Shamrock (Ireland), Pyunik (Armenia), and Riga (Latvia) are the bottom 6 by 538 and betting odds, and all I think are bottom 6 in straight ELO except Vaduz. These are some true minnows on the European scene, but I think probably the biggest ones of all are Ballkani and Pyunik, not even the best teams in Kosovo/Armenia most years, and the teams with slightly worse betting odds than the others.

6 teams supposedly "true minnows" according to me. 5 of the 6 had draws in the first round of the ECL, with only Pyunik getting nothing. In round 2 Pyunik now has a win, and it wasn't against Zalgiris. In fact, none of the ECL teams that have played 2 rounds so far are without a point.
   244. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 15, 2022 at 05:38 PM (#6096322)
The big 4 leagues, and France too, have done poorly in Europe so far this year, with the minor exception of Spain who have been about what was expected, maybe a tad better. Despite the vast sums spent by the EPL, today was the first day all the EPL teams in action won, and it was only because their opponents were shite.

Germany, Italy, and France have all done even worse than England relative to their own expectations.

Despite that, in the EPL only Chelsea is in any real danger yet of not advancing, and they are still fairly big favorites to do so. Things don't look as rosy for the other top leagues.

Spain's Sevilla probably won't advance.
Germany has Leipzig, Frankfurt, and Union all in serious trouble. Lverkusen is 50/50 but that's the same as before.
Italy has Inter, Juve, and Fiorentina struggling. At least Napoli was a nice surprise.
France has Marseille struggling, and a bunch of teams that are touch and go who have surprisingly dropped points against weaker sides: Nice, Monaco, Nantes.

On the other hand, Portugal has done very well with the surprising exception of Porto. Belgium hasn't lost a game yet in the group stage (6 wins, 2 draws). Turkey has also done well for a change.

   245. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 16, 2022 at 03:50 PM (#6096482)
More VAR controversy? Villa player takes a shot with a striker in an offside position. It's saved but bounces off the crossbar, comes down in front of goal where the Southampton defender tries a desperate headed clearance that only goes straight to the Villa player who was offside.

Goal stands because the ball was intentionally played by the defender, and it was not a save. That said, the clearance attempt by the defender was fairly desperate and did not clearly satisfy the guidelines below in my view, though I'd like to see it again. Maybe you could say it was borderline. See in particular the highlighted parts.

Change in offside
IFAB, football's law-making body, has clarified the offside rule, explaining what constitutes defending players "deliberately playing" the ball.

Though Law 11 (offside) has not explicitly changed, the new guidelines make clear that an attacking player who is offside will not automatically become onside upon a defender touching the ball, unless it was a save.

Though Law 11 has not explicitly changed, the new guidelines make clear an offside player will not automatically become onside upon a defender touching the ball.

"'Deliberate play' is when a player has control of the ball with the possibility of passing the ball to a team-mate, gaining possession of the ball, or clearing the ball," IFAB's clarified guidelines state.

"If the pass, attempt to gain possession or clearance by the player in control of the ball is inaccurate or unsuccessful, this does not negate the fact that the player 'deliberately played' the ball."

In addition, IFAB provides these indicators as to when a player "deliberately played" the ball:

- The ball had travelled from distance and the players had a clear view of it
- The ball was not moving quickly
- The direction of the ball was not unexpected
- The player had time to coordinate their body movement
- A ball moving on the ground is easier to play than a ball in the air


edit: oh no way... saw it at halftime. No chance that header by the defender should count as a deliberate play for this rule... he's practically under the crossbar, off balance, with no chance to get any power on the header. That's exactly what the rule is for--to not punish the defender for doing their best to make a play, necessary entirely due to the offensive player being in an offside position, but failing for reasons mostly of the defender's control. That goal was total bullshit.
   246. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 16, 2022 at 04:36 PM (#6096503)
Just as an obvious note, even if a person disagrees with the West Ham goal reversal and foul by Bowen, there have been at least 10 instances (across the major leagues and Europe) since then of MUCH worse calls either being made or not upon VAR review, including the one above.
   247. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 17, 2022 at 12:07 PM (#6096617)
Europa odds. Notables in italics.
             TO ADVANCE              WINNER
           ORIGINAL  CURRENT    ORIGINAL  CURRENT
Group A
Arsenal       95        96        75        80
PSV           68        61        18        12
Bodo Glimt    22        37         4         8
Zurich        15         6         3        <1

Group B
Rennes        74        77        38        44
Fenerbahce    63        77        35        42
AEK           20        23         8         9
Kyiv          43        23        19         5

Group C
Betis         87        92        34        51
Roma          93        88        59        47
Ludogorets    16        20         5         2
HJK            4        <1         2        <1

Group D
Braga         63        88        32        58
St Gilloise   43        71        19        32
Union Berlin  69        33        35         9
Malmo         25         8        14         1

Group E
Sociedad      80        95        29        53
United        91        93        64        46
Sheriff       14        11         3         1
Omonia        15         1         4        <1

Group F
Lazio         78        74        50        46
Feyenoord     66        72        26        34
Midtjylland   33        31        13        14
Sturm Graz    23        23        11         6

Group G
Freiburg      68        91        39        71
Nantes        48        52        21        16
Qarabag       21        30        10        10
Olympiacos    63        27        30         3

Group H
Monaco        86        68        50        42
Ferencvaros   24        66        14        37
Trabzonspor   42        51        17        18
Red Star      48        15        19         3
   248. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: September 17, 2022 at 02:18 PM (#6096627)
Thirteen minute hat trick off the bench for Son. Drought very over.
   249. spivey Posted: September 17, 2022 at 03:00 PM (#6096632)
Son got that dog in him.
   250. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 18, 2022 at 09:14 AM (#6096748)
EPL winner odds going into the break:
                 PRE-SEASON   CURRENT
City                57          74.5

Liverpool           26           9.5
Arsenal              2.5         7
Tottenham            6           4
United               2           2
Chelsea              5           2

Field                1.5         1
   251. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 18, 2022 at 11:17 AM (#6096754)
EPL Top 4 odds going into the break:
                 PRE-SEASON   CURRENT
City                96.5        98.5

Liverpool           87          73
Arsenal             37.5        65
Tottenham           59.5        64.5
Chelsea             56          42
United              30          36.5

Newcastle           8.5          6.5
Brighton            3            6.5
West Ham            5.5          2
Palace              1.5          1.5 
Villa               4.5          1
Brentford           0.5          1

Field               10           2
   252. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 18, 2022 at 11:37 AM (#6096757)
EPL relegation odds going into the break:
                 PRE-SEASON   CURRENT
Bournemouth         65          63
Forest              41.5        59

Leicester            6.5        33
Southampton         24.5        26
Everton             22          23
Leeds               30          19
Wolves              15          19

Fulham              39          13
Villa                4          12
Brentford           24          11
Palace              11.5         9
West Ham             3.5         8.25

Newcastle            3           2.5
Brighton            10           2

Top 6                0.25        0.25

Only Newcastle and Brighton have a better shot at top 4 than relegation. Everton had the big win, but are still in the thick of the relegation battle. Interestingly, no worse off than they were when the season started.

And for top 4, the Brighton, Brentford, and 4 of the top 6 have a better shot now than they had when the season started. Newcastle has looked very good at times but has started slower than expected. Everyone else that was given any shot when the season started has looked bad, except Brighton.
   253. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 18, 2022 at 02:03 PM (#6096763)
Atalanta somehow beat Roma despite having almost no shots and sustaining a barrage in the other direction. xG is going to quite ridiculous. Roma has been very good this year by xG. They might even have the best Serie A xGD after the game today, even better than Napoli.
   254. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 18, 2022 at 02:28 PM (#6096764)
understat had it as 3.28-0.14; infogoal at 2.85-0.14. What a way to lose.
   255. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 18, 2022 at 04:50 PM (#6096798)
Napoli stole one from Milan in a very exciting game, with Milan going for broke at the end and not being able to connect on any of their many chances. Napoli had two goals from almost nothing except a penalty. They are now in the pole position for Serie A, and even betting odds, who have been skeptical to this point, has them close to just behind Milan, and ahead of Inter, for taking the trophy.
   256. jmurph Posted: September 19, 2022 at 01:47 PM (#6096885)
Napoli stole one from Milan in a very exciting game

It's been a fun season in Serie A so far- it's a great league to sort of follow at a remove, and just go week to week. Juventus is a bit of a mess, Udinese is in third, it's great.
   257. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 19, 2022 at 02:02 PM (#6096891)
Dale Johnson at ESPN showing how useless an analyst he is, barely questioning the Villa goal decision (40 seconds in). Doesn't lay out the relevant guidelines correctly (says the defender has to be "in control of his actions" when the rule is actually "control of the ball" and "has time to coordinate their body movement". As others have noted, he just repeats what PGMOL wants him to say, so he's useless as an independent analyst.

Here are the actual FIFA guidelines in video. While the Salisu play isn't really like any of them, it's closer to the non-deliberate ones for sure. In some ways it's a lot like #4 (ball coming from short distance at a not well-expected trajectory). Salisu had a lot less time to react than on #7 and #8 (both non-deliberate) and probably less ability to coordinate his body than on #8.

The really annoying thing about these plays is the defender often knows about the presence of the attacker, but can't possibly know whether or not they were offside by a few inches. This puts the defender in an impossible situation that was created by the offensive player's offside position--the entire reason IFAB made the clarifications.
   258. jmurph Posted: September 20, 2022 at 08:59 AM (#6097028)
Speaking of Serie A, will be interested to see how Brighton do under De Zerbi, his Sassuolo teams were a lot of fun, it seems like a good fit.

   259. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 20, 2022 at 04:49 PM (#6097120)
Another ref pundit you'd be far, far better off ignoring--Dermot Gallagher, regarding the Villa goal:
Speaking on Sky Sports' Ref Watch feature, Gallagher said: "In the Nations League final we had a big furore about Kylian Mbappe's goal and playing the ball, being in possession of the ball. The rule was rewritten that if the defender makes a clear attempt to play the ball, whether he controls it or not, it plays the attacking player onside.

He has the rule described completely incorrectly. The description is directly in opposition to the IFAB guidelines both as written and seen in the videos. WTF.
   260. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 23, 2022 at 10:28 AM (#6097625)
Maybe it's the timing of the group games (the USMNT has England second, whereas Wales has England last, which is probably an advantage for Wales) or maybe a pro-European bias. Or maybe it's games like today where the USMNT seems outclassed by a supposedly inferior opponent. At any rate, betting odds have the USMNT and Wales as virtually equally likely to advance. It's just not the case that the USMNT is favored to go through, or is even "expected" to go through. To me, advancing would be an accomplishment and not would be a disappointment, but it's basically 50/50 right now (actually a little less because Iran is not a pushover either).

Group B odds:
           To advance       Winner
England        90             70
USA            46             13
Wales          46             13
Iran           18              4
   261. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 23, 2022 at 10:51 AM (#6097628)
The USMNT is a small but significant favorite over Wales in the first group game, so are likely considered the better team. The problem is the group structure favors Wales. If the teams draw, it's advantage Wales because England is expected to beat Iran in the first game. If England beats the US in the second game (which they will be trying hard to do), there's a very good chance that England will only need a draw in the last game against Wales to win the group, and a good chance they know they would advance even with a loss.
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