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Thursday, August 11, 2022
OT Soccer Thread - European Leages Return
The new season kicks off in Europe without a peep from the BBTF cognoscenti. Are the fans turned off by the stratospheric player salaries? Dismayed at increasing stratification in domestic leagues? Bored with the prospect of more meaningless Champions League group games? Gearing up for a World Cup boycott? Or, you know, just kind of tired in general. Whatever the reason, we can’t go without a soccer thread, surely!
The Marksist
Posted: August 11, 2022 at 02:20 PM | 775 comment(s)
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I wish I didn't know that.
Anyways, point is, I certainly don't root for him as a third party observer. Doesn't matter what I think though, the man was put on this earth to score goals.
EPL relegation odds. After the bottom two it's now anyone's guess.
PRE-SEASON CURRENT Forest 41.5 71 Bournemouth 65 63 Southampton 24.5 29 Wolves 15 25 Leicester 6.5 24 Everton 22 16 Leeds 30 16 Fulham 39 16 Villa 4 12 Brentford 24 10.5 Palace 11.5 10.5 West Ham 3.5 4 Brighton 10 1.5 Newcastle 3 1 Top 6 0.25 0.25Brugge is virtually through! 9 points where no one else has more than 3.
Spurs didn't lose, but their group is very tight and they have a lot of work to do now in 3 games.
Inter holds on. That game next week is now officially huge. Barca should be big favorites but Inter could get a scrappy draw.
I would say they've been better in the CL, though it hasn't really translated to results since they have just the one win over Marseille. Betting odds still has them as about 80% to advance, which is where they were when the group stage started.
All the favorites have won or are winning today, except PSG is only drawing Benfica on the road at the moment.
ORIGINAL AFTER R1 A FTER R2 CURRENT Group A Napoli 44 66 78 97 Liverpool 88 79 84 92 Ajax 49 49 37 11 Rangers 19 6 1 Group B Brugge 19 33 54 91 Atleti 75 89 74 50 Leverkusen 52 30 53 35 Porto 54 48 19 24 Group C Bayern 86 96 98 98 Barcelona 66 80 74 53 Inter 45 23 28 49 Pizen 3 1 <1 Group D Tottenham 81 90 81 80 Sporting 33 62 82 73 Frankfurt 43 16 26 27 Marseille 43 32 11 20 Group E Chelsea 88 79 69 81 Milan 74 78 82 73 Salzburg 30 28 33 36 Dinamo 8 15 16 10 Group F Real Madrid 94 97 >99 100 Leipzig 72 42 46 62 Shakhtar 9 24 28 25 Celtic 25 37 26 13 Group G City 94 98 >99 100 Dortmund 61 74 74 96 Sevilla 37 24 24 3 Copenhagen 8 4 2 1 Group H PSG 92 97 98 98 Benfica 25 40 87 89 Juventus 82 62 15 13 Haifa 3 1 <1The surprises so far are Sporting, Benfica, and of course Brugge. The only real disappointment so far is Juve, though Atleti and Barca may join them.
Gotta think that the group is pretty wide open, given the state of all 4 teams.
I'm watching ManU play some team from apparently Cyprus - and has former US international Mix Diskerud. It really shouldn't be that interesting but Ronaldo is starting up top for United.
Even if that's what happened (which is highly debatable), this is Omonia on the road all the way in Cyprus! This is exactly the type of game a manager is supposed to field a weaker team and win easily. It's pretty hard for me to blame the lineup and substitutes today for whatever is happening. Go ahead and blame the manager and players for not being more prepared or not being better or whatever, but don't blame Ten Hag for choosing this particular game to use a lineup other than the best 11.
2-3 now. What a sloppy performance by United.
TO ADVANCE WINNER ORIGINAL CURRENT ORIGINAL CURRENT Group A Arsenal 95 98 75 82 PSV 68 71 18 15 Bodo Glimt 22 30 4 3 Zurich 15 1 3 Group B Rennes 74 93 38 54 Fenerbahce 63 91 35 45 Kyiv 43 9 19 AEK 20 7 8 1 Group C Betis 87 98 34 93 Roma 93 75 59 6 Ludogorets 16 26 5 1 HJK 4 1 2 Group D St Gilloise 43 91 19 70 Braga 63 70 32 21 Union Berlin 69 38 35 9 Malmo 25 1 14 Group E Sociedad 80 99 29 69 United 91 98 64 31 Sheriff 14 3 3 Omonia 15 4 Group F Lazio 78 75 50 45 Feyenoord 66 70 26 38 Midtjylland 33 33 13 10 Sturm Graz 23 22 11 7 Group G Freiburg 68 99 39 89 Qarabag 21 70 10 10 Nantes 48 26 21 1 Olympiacos 63 5 30 Group H Monaco 86 87 50 59 Ferencvaros 24 57 14 26 Red Star 48 28 19 9 Trabzonspor 42 28 17 6Current biggest surprises not likely to advance are Union and Olympiacos. Current biggest surprises not likely to win the group are United and Roma.
PRE-DRAW CURRENT city 26 33 bayern 12 12.5 psg 14 11.5 liverpool 14 10.5 real madrid 7 7.5 barcelona 6 6.5 chelsea 4 4 napoli 0.4 3.5 tottenham 4 3 dortmund 1 1.2 milan 1 1.1 atleti 2 1 inter 2 1 benfica 0.4 1 juve 2 0.3 leipzig 1 0.3 sporting 0.15 0.3 brugge 0.05 0.3 last 14 3 1.5PRE-DRAW CURRENT Arsenal 14 18 United 11.5 14 Betis 4 5 Roma 6.5 4.5 Sociedad 3 4.5 Lazio 4 2.5 PSV 2.5 2 Freiburg 2 2 Monaco 1.5 2 Rennes 1.5 1.5 Fenerbache 1 1.5 Feyenoord 2 1 Union Berlin 2 1 Braga 1.5 1 Saint Gilloise 1 1 Field (17 teams) 7.5 4City at home against a bottom of the table team like Southampton is not a serious contest. It's only an opportunity to see which City players are going to rack up stats. Not my type of thing. You might ask why such a strong lineup by City, but the game is sandwiched by two against Copenhagen. At least the Liverpool game is on the horizon now.
Haaland current pace is 63 goals. This has a Mark McGwire in May, 1998 feel to it.
It wasn't just Liverpool's defenders today. Arsenal was better on both ends of the field, and in the midfield as well.
This is a very fun team, especially after so many years in the doldrums post-Wenger. I mean, I think the chances they actually top City are less than 10%, but I am finally convinced they're the real deal. Mikel Arteta is either very lucky or very good.
PRE-SEASON CURRENT City 57 81.5 Arsenal 2.5 10 Chelsea 5 3 Liverpool 26 2.5 Tottenham 6 2.25 United 2 0.5 Field 1.5 0.25PRE-SEASON CURRENT City 96.5 99 Arsenal 37.5 77.5 Tottenham 59.5 58 Liverpool 87 54.5 Chelsea 56 52.5 United 30 36 Newcastle 8.5 11.5 Brighton 3 5.5 West Ham 5.5 2.5 Field 16.5 3It's actually kind of astounding how little the preseason odds have changed for most of the top teams. Arsenal has gone up and Liverpool down, but that's pretty much it. The top 6 all have a lot of points in the table right now the top 5 positions plus Liverpool in 10th but with a game in hand), so it's not a year for the field.
Of course, Liverpool proceeded to finish the season with 5 straight wins, while Leicester lost 3 of their last 4. Chelsea also only won 2 of their last 4, so Liverpool finished ahead of both.
Apparently Antonio's was far more blatant but had the mitigating factor of being further back in the play. Rashford's was between both of these (both in separation from actual goal and from goal and advantage gained), but kind of ridiculous that it would be disallowed while the other two stood. Under current rules probably all three should have been disallowed.
Antonio's was farther upfield, but the handling looked to be intentional. It's fairly shocking that it was allowed to stand.
PRE-SEASON CURRENT Forest 41.5 71 Bournemouth 65 52 Leicester 6.5 30 Southampton 24.5 28 Wolves 15 26.5 Leeds 30 21.5 Fulham 39 19.5 Everton 22 16 Villa 4 12 Brentford 24 12 Palace 11.5 8 West Ham 3.5 1.5 Brighton 10 1.5 Newcastle 3 0.35 Top 6 0.25 0.15edit: By 538's estimation, all of those bottom 11 teams are worse than they expected coming in, except Everton and Leeds, and then only by a little. For the top 6, only Arsenal and United have done better than 538 expected. The teams most better than expected by 538 are Newcastle (who should have an asterisk as 538 hated them for no good reason), Arsenal, and Brighton. 538 actually really liked Brighton to begin with, so they may be the surprise o the season, even more so than Arsenal.
If they lose to Dortmund on the road now they likely finish second in the group. Not likely but well within the realm of possibility.
Mahrez had a penalty saved, they had a goal ruled out after video review, and then the red. Played plenty well enough to win early and then didn't do a whole lot after the red.
(The penalty, the goal, and the red all could have gone either way but I don't think there was much to complain about in total.)
Antonio's should have never stood under any interpretation of the rule. You rarely see a more blatant intentional handball, since players know they can't get away with anything too obvious. There's a separate question about whether Antonio was fouled on the play, but two wrongs don't make a right.
DOGSO + pen in the Chelsea game. That one play puts Chelsea in the knockouts.
I am talking about the 3 VAR decisions in the Copenhagen - City game. 2 of which were handballs (city goal, and city penalty) the other red card DOGSO against city.
6 draws in the first 48 CL group games was very, very low. Don't worry though, we had 5 draws in 8 games today.
Speaking of, Brugge is holding out against Atleti on the road. A draw does not kill off Atleti, but it sure makes their chances of reaching the KOs quite a bit harder. It would also make Brugge very likely to win the group.
Atleti is now touch and go. Win both their games and they are in though.
edit: keeper wrong footed by a deflection. 2-2. It's game on.
For all Barca's improvement, they are going out at the group stage yet again.
Liverpool got a lot of goals but it makes no difference for their prospects. It's still lose by 2 to Ajax and they face elimination, and unless they beat Napoli by 3 or more they aren;t winning the group anyway.
ORIGINAL AFTER R1 AFTER R2 AFTER R3 CURRENT Group A Napoli 44 66 78 97 100 Liverpool 88 79 84 92 98 Ajax 49 49 37 11 2 Rangers 19 6 1 Group B Brugge 19 33 54 91 100 Porto 54 48 19 24 61 Atleti 75 89 74 50 34 Leverkusen 52 30 53 35 5 Group C Bayern 86 96 98 98 100 Inter 45 23 28 49 93 Barcelona 66 80 74 53 7 Pizen 3 1 <1 Group D Tottenham 81 90 81 80 87 Marseille 43 32 11 20 47 Sporting 33 62 82 73 44 Frankfurt 43 16 26 27 22 Group E Chelsea 88 79 69 81 95 Milan 74 78 82 73 66 Salzburg 30 28 33 36 33 Dinamo 8 15 16 10 6 Group F Real Madrid 94 97 >99 100 100 Leipzig 72 42 46 62 79 Shakhtar 9 24 28 25 21 Celtic 25 37 26 13 Group G City 94 98 >99 100 100 Dortmund 61 74 74 96 97 Copenhagen 8 4 2 1 2 Sevilla 37 24 24 3 1 Group H PSG 92 97 98 98 >99 Benfica 25 40 87 89 98 Juventus 82 62 15 13 2 Haifa 3 1 <1Half the groups are basically decided now. There are still a few interesting games left though.
106. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 25, 2022 at 08:41 PM (#6093299)
I'm not convinced Juve is locked in for group H over Benfica. They look pretty bad.
Revised CL overall odds:
PRE-DRAW CURRENT city 26 33 bayern 12 13 psg 14 11 liverpool 14 10.5 real madrid 7 7 chelsea 4 5.5 napoli 0.4 4.5 tottenham 4 4 inter 2 2 dortmund 1 1.5 benfica 0.4 1.5 barcelona 6 1 milan 1 0.8 leipzig 1 0.6 atleti 2 0.6 brugge 0.05 0.5 porto 0.25 0.4 sporting 0.15 0.3 marseille 0.2 0.3 frankfurt 0.2 0.2 shakhtar 0.15 0.2 last 11 4.2 0.5PRE-DRAW CURRENT Arsenal 14 19.5 United 11.5 13.5 Betis 4 5.5 Sociedad 3 4.5 Freiburg 2 4 Roma 6.5 3.5 Lazio 4 2.5 PSV 2.5 2.5 Feyenoord 2 1.5 Rennes 1.5 1.5 Fenerbache 1 1.5 Monaco 1.5 1.5 Union Berlin 2 1 Braga 1.5 1 Saint Gilloise 1 1 Field (17 teams) 7.5 3TO ADVANCE WINNER ORIGINAL CURRENT ORIGINAL CURRENT Group A Arsenal 95 100 75 88 PSV 68 80 18 12 Bodo Glimt 22 20 4 Zurich 15 3 Group B Rennes 74 100 38 56 Fenerbahce 63 100 35 44 Kyiv 43 19 AEK 20 8 Group C Betis 87 100 34 99 Roma 93 70 59 Ludogorets 16 30 5 1 HJK 4 2 Group D St Gilloise 43 100 19 73 Braga 63 59 32 14 Union Berlin 69 41 35 13 Malmo 25 14 Group E Sociedad 80 100 29 65 United 91 100 64 35 Sheriff 14 3 Omonia 15 4 Group F Lazio 78 62 50 42 Feyenoord 66 62 26 39 Midtjylland 33 54 13 10 Sturm Graz 23 22 11 9 Group G Freiburg 68 100 39 98 Qarabag 21 90 10 2 Nantes 48 10 21 Olympiacos 63 30 Group H Ferencvaros 24 68 14 49 Monaco 86 66 50 39 Trabzonspor 42 60 17 11 Red Star 48 6 19 1Fulham has also not really been any good this year either, despite their 11 points, and it's not so obvious to me why their relegation odds were so low coming into the game. Their xGD is terrible.
Didn't see it mentioned here, but Xabi Alonso is now Leverkusen's manager. They're currently sitting in the relegation zone. Their season has been an absolute disaster so far.
With Leverkusen slipping so badly, the door's open for a different team to finish in the top 4. Freiburg and Union right now have the inside track, but some of the usual suspects from recent years are there as well: Frankfurt, Gladbach, and Hoffenheim.
It's been pretty good every time it's happened this season, even though Bissouma hasn't been very good (until this game). When Kulusevski isn't playing I think it's their best formation.
I agree but I think Bissouma has to earn Conte's trust for it to happen. A match like today will go a long way.
Skipp also came on!
And Doherty was great again. When Tottenham started steam rolling teams late last year, a lot of it came down to Doherty getting in the starting 11 and putting up elite attacking numbers. I'm ready for that to happen again.
It's higher than TAA (0.37) and Reece James (0.31).
Lampard had good results his first year with Chelsea, but as time has gone on, I'm not sure he knows what he's doing.
United v Newcastle
Liverpool v City
El Clasico
Marseille v PSG
eta And immediately followed by another dive in the box by Casemiro.
edit: no penalty, which seems like it has to be the right call. You could argue that there was a separate incident requiring a red after the Bamford foul, but even that seems pretty harsh, though not totally unfair. Anyway, the red was also not given.
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