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Thursday, August 11, 2022

OT Soccer Thread - European Leages Return

The new season kicks off in Europe without a peep from the BBTF cognoscenti. Are the fans turned off by the stratospheric player salaries? Dismayed at increasing stratification in domestic leagues? Bored with the prospect of more meaningless Champions League group games? Gearing up for a World Cup boycott? Or, you know, just kind of tired in general. Whatever the reason, we can’t go without a soccer thread, surely!

The Marksist Posted: August 11, 2022 at 02:20 PM | 767 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off-topic, soccer

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   301. Mefisto Posted: October 03, 2022 at 01:35 PM (#6098886)
Haaland likes, or at least liked, Donald Trump.


I wish I didn't know that.
   302. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 03, 2022 at 01:46 PM (#6098887)
You mean he clicked "like" multiple times on Trump and Trump-supporting tweets (pre 2020?). That's certainly too bad, in my opinion. As far as I know there hasn't been anything else though, nor anything said, and he was pretty young--still a teenager when that info came out. Not sure if there is anything more recent.
   303. spivey Posted: October 03, 2022 at 01:58 PM (#6098890)
Yes, I'm willing to cut a bit of slack, he may not be a bad person. We were all stupid then, though I wouldn't have done that at any age. And Pulisic's done some nonsense like that, but also liked progressive tweets too and spoken up in ways I like.

Anyways, point is, I certainly don't root for him as a third party observer. Doesn't matter what I think though, the man was put on this earth to score goals.
   304. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 03, 2022 at 05:14 PM (#6098938)
Fantastic finishing (by xG) for Leicester today. Got the huge win despite being on the short side of xG, by infogol anyway.

EPL relegation odds. After the bottom two it's now anyone's guess.
                 PRE-SEASON   CURRENT
Forest              41.5        71
Bournemouth         65          63

Southampton         24.5        29
Wolves              15          25
Leicester            6.5        24

Everton             22          16
Leeds               30          16
Fulham              39          16

Villa                4          12
Brentford           24          10.5
Palace              11.5        10.5

West Ham             3.5         4
Brighton            10           1.5
Newcastle            3           1

Top 6                0.25        0.25
   305. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 04, 2022 at 01:34 PM (#6099036)
Sporting took the lead in the very first minute, but a series of bad mistakes by the keeper Adan and they are now down 2-1 and down to 10 men as well. That might be the single most disastrous 10 minutes by a keeper in just about ever.
   306. The Marksist Posted: October 04, 2022 at 01:38 PM (#6099037)
I didn't watch the whole game, but: Forest look BAAAAAAAAAAAAAD. They had a couple nice moments, but every time the pressed a little they got in trouble and every time the tried to play quick they gave it away. At no point during the first half did I think they had a chance.
   307. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 04, 2022 at 04:32 PM (#6099057)
Barca can't get much action at the Inter end today, and still trail. Just had one called back on a bit of bad luck handball. It would be wonderful and fascinating if Inter can hold on for the win. Barca would not be favored to get out of the group in that case, I'm pretty sure. A win today and a draw in Spain would virtually put Inter through, considering Pizen.
   308. spivey Posted: October 04, 2022 at 04:34 PM (#6099058)
Napoli reminds me of Mr. T on the come up. To think they lost Insigne, Mertens, and Koulibaly and got better.
   309. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 04, 2022 at 05:03 PM (#6099067)
Yeah Napoli looks like the real deal at the moment. It will be very difficult for Liverpool to win that group now, though I don't think that matters much.

Brugge is virtually through! 9 points where no one else has more than 3.

Spurs didn't lose, but their group is very tight and they have a lot of work to do now in 3 games.

Inter holds on. That game next week is now officially huge. Barca should be big favorites but Inter could get a scrappy draw.
   310. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 04, 2022 at 08:43 PM (#6099102)
Napoli has 12.2 xG in three CL games (538). That's a crazy high number--much crazier than the 13 actual goals they have scored.
   311. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 05, 2022 at 10:53 AM (#6099151)
In the EPL, Spurs' victories have been over the weakest teams in the league (which should include Leicester at the moment): Southampton, Wolves, Forest, Fulham, and Leicester are all among the worst 8 teams in the EPL right now. (Rounded out by Bournemouth, Leeds, and Everton). Four of those games were at home too, so they were very big favorites. They've looked mediocre at best in their three league games against more quality opposition, though all three were on the road: Chelsea, West Ham, and Arsenal.

I would say they've been better in the CL, though it hasn't really translated to results since they have just the one win over Marseille. Betting odds still has them as about 80% to advance, which is where they were when the group stage started.
   312. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 05, 2022 at 04:03 PM (#6099215)
Even when Sevilla surprisingly play pretty well they end up down 0-3 at the half in a game they had to win. See you in Europa.
   313. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 05, 2022 at 04:29 PM (#6099222)
Chelsea making Milan look like amateurs. Biggest win of the year for them puts them back in charge of their group. (They still trial Salzburg on points but will easily be favorites to win the group now.)

All the favorites have won or are winning today, except PSG is only drawing Benfica on the road at the moment.
   314. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 05, 2022 at 05:03 PM (#6099230)
Only 6 draws halfway through the group stage (1 per 8 games). That's way lower than expected. Last three years averaged 20 out of 96 games (21%, which is about what you might expect for a relatively unbalanced group of teams).
   315. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 05, 2022 at 07:07 PM (#6099259)
              ORIGINAL  AFTER R1 A FTER R2  CURRENT
Group A
Napoli           44        66        78       97
Liverpool        88        79        84       92
Ajax             49        49        37       11
Rangers          19         6         1

Group B
Brugge           19        33        54       91
Atleti           75        89        74       50
Leverkusen       52        30        53       35
Porto            54        48        19       24

Group C    
Bayern           86        96        98       98
Barcelona        66        80        74       53
Inter            45        23        28       49
Pizen             3         1        <1

Group D
Tottenham        81        90        81       80
Sporting         33        62        82       73
Frankfurt        43        16        26       27
Marseille        43        32        11       20

Group E
Chelsea          88        79       69        81
Milan            74        78       82        73
Salzburg         30        28       33        36
Dinamo            8        15       16        10

Group F 
Real Madrid      94        97      >99       100
Leipzig          72        42       46        62
Shakhtar          9        24       28        25
Celtic           25        37       26        13

Group G
City             94        98      >99       100
Dortmund         61        74       74        96
Sevilla          37        24       24         3
Copenhagen        8         4        2         1

Group H
PSG              92        97       98        98
Benfica          25        40       87        89
Juventus         82        62       15        13
Haifa             3         1       <1

The surprises so far are Sporting, Benfica, and of course Brugge. The only real disappointment so far is Juve, though Atleti and Barca may join them.
   316. Textbook Editor Posted: October 06, 2022 at 10:44 AM (#6099341)
Walker with groin surgery; now a doubt for the World Cup. Walker papered over a lot of cracks in defense; England doesn't look like the juggernaut that one would have expected the day after Euro 2020 ended.

Gotta think that the group is pretty wide open, given the state of all 4 teams.
   317. spivey Posted: October 06, 2022 at 10:50 AM (#6099343)
Walker is a brilliant player and has unique qualities that let you play aggressive attacking football, but Reece James is the best RB in the world imo. England should be better than they've looked.
   318. The Marksist Posted: October 06, 2022 at 12:32 PM (#6099356)
Anyone have their eye on an interesting Europa game today? Looking for something to have on in the background.
   319. I am going to be Frank Posted: October 06, 2022 at 01:17 PM (#6099366)
For England, Walker normally played the RCB in a back three, similarly for City in that he's the fast guy in the defense to cover up the high line/slowness of England and City's CB. It's a big miss for City and England, although City will be able to manage a lot better than England because they'll keep winning easily.

I'm watching ManU play some team from apparently Cyprus - and has former US international Mix Diskerud. It really shouldn't be that interesting but Ronaldo is starting up top for United.
   320. I am going to be Frank Posted: October 06, 2022 at 01:22 PM (#6099369)
And Omonia scores on the counter.
   321. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 06, 2022 at 01:24 PM (#6099370)
Hehe. That was some terrible decision making by Malacia and then the player who doubled the ball carrier leaving the pass for the goal. I think it might have been Eriksen.
   322. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 06, 2022 at 02:30 PM (#6099385)
Announcers half implying that Ten Hag got his lineup wrong from the opening whistle because it required bringing in substitutes that were "quality players" to take the lead.

Even if that's what happened (which is highly debatable), this is Omonia on the road all the way in Cyprus! This is exactly the type of game a manager is supposed to field a weaker team and win easily. It's pretty hard for me to blame the lineup and substitutes today for whatever is happening. Go ahead and blame the manager and players for not being more prepared or not being better or whatever, but don't blame Ten Hag for choosing this particular game to use a lineup other than the best 11.

2-3 now. What a sloppy performance by United.
   323. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 06, 2022 at 08:57 PM (#6099468)
Europa odds:
               TO ADVANCE              WINNER
           ORIGINAL  CURRENT    ORIGINAL  CURRENT
Group A
Arsenal       95        98        75        82
PSV           68        71        18        15
Bodo Glimt    22        30         4         3
Zurich        15         1         3         

Group B
Rennes        74        93        38        54
Fenerbahce    63        91        35        45
Kyiv          43         9        19              
AEK           20         7         8         1 

Group C
Betis         87        98        34        93
Roma          93        75        59         6
Ludogorets    16        26         5         1
HJK            4         1         2        

Group D
St Gilloise   43        91        19        70
Braga         63        70        32        21
Union Berlin  69        38        35         9
Malmo         25         1        14         

Group E
Sociedad      80        99        29        69
United        91        98        64        31
Sheriff       14         3         3        
Omonia        15                   4        


Group F
Lazio         78        75        50        45
Feyenoord     66        70        26        38
Midtjylland   33        33        13        10
Sturm Graz    23        22        11         7


Group G
Freiburg      68        99        39        89
Qarabag       21        70        10        10
Nantes        48        26        21         1
Olympiacos    63         5        30          

Group H
Monaco        86        87        50        59
Ferencvaros   24        57        14        26
Red Star      48        28        19         9
Trabzonspor   42        28        17         6

Current biggest surprises not likely to advance are Union and Olympiacos. Current biggest surprises not likely to win the group are United and Roma.
   324. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 07, 2022 at 09:57 AM (#6099516)
Revised CL overall odds:
          PRE-DRAW    CURRENT
city         26         33

bayern       12         12.5
psg          14         11.5
liverpool    14         10.5

real madrid   7          7.5
barcelona     6          6.5

chelsea       4          4
napoli        0.4        3.5
tottenham     4          3

dortmund      1          1.2
milan         1          1.1
atleti        2          1
inter         2          1
benfica       0.4        1

juve          2          0.3
leipzig       1          0.3
sporting      0.15       0.3
brugge        0.05       0.3

last 14       3          1.5
   325. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 07, 2022 at 10:10 AM (#6099518)
Europa odds: Arsenal looks good. The rest not so much. (United is way too high since they likely won't win their group.)
              PRE-DRAW    CURRENT
Arsenal          14         18
United           11.5       14

Betis             4          5
Roma              6.5        4.5
Sociedad          3          4.5

Lazio             4          2.5
PSV               2.5        2
Freiburg          2          2
Monaco            1.5        2
Rennes            1.5        1.5
Fenerbache        1          1.5
Feyenoord         2          1
Union Berlin      2          1
Braga             1.5        1
Saint Gilloise    1          1

Field (17 teams)  7.5        4

   326. The Marksist Posted: October 07, 2022 at 04:16 PM (#6099669)
Watching the USWNT/England game and the Brits look very good now that they have a competent coach. US looks pretty poor in possession, really, but Sophia Smith is a hell of a weapon, so dangerous moments in transition. Chances both ways and a kinda soft penalty (I mean, you can't kick people in the face, but I've seen those not given) is the difference right now.
   327. jmurph Posted: October 08, 2022 at 10:35 AM (#6099864)
Haaland just had two defenders chase him in (I think) an offside position to leave Foden basically wide open for a goal.
   328. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 08, 2022 at 11:39 AM (#6099869)
Two late goals by Bournemouth to take the lead, and put Leicester back on the hot seat for the moment.

City at home against a bottom of the table team like Southampton is not a serious contest. It's only an opportunity to see which City players are going to rack up stats. Not my type of thing. You might ask why such a strong lineup by City, but the game is sandwiched by two against Copenhagen. At least the Liverpool game is on the horizon now.
   329. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: October 08, 2022 at 11:57 AM (#6099871)
Leicester is such a mess right now. I think Rodgers is a decent coach but he's gotta go. They are so disorganized at the back.

Haaland current pace is 63 goals. This has a Mark McGwire in May, 1998 feel to it.
   330. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 08, 2022 at 02:26 PM (#6099890)
Dortmund came back from 2 down to draw on the last kick of the game, by keeping the ball up in the Bayern end and the pressure on in the last few minutes after Coman went off with a second yellow. The Dortmund keeper was up for the final 60 seconds which began with a Dortmund corner, though he never actually got a touch on the ball.
   331. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: October 08, 2022 at 03:04 PM (#6099908)
Kobel would have probably saved both of the Bayern goals. Definitely the second one.
   332. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: October 08, 2022 at 03:23 PM (#6099917)
Also a bit of a interesting one that I don't quite understand from that game. Just after the Coman red card, Adeyemi pulled back Sané on a counter, and as Sané tumbles over he appears to kick out with both feet at Adeyemi. Adeyemi gets booked, totally fair and square. Sané also gets booked though, which I really can't see the justification for. I mean either that is nothing, or it is a deliberate kick, which is violent conduct and a red. There really isn't any justification for a yellow that I can see other than 'I just sent somebody from that team off, and don't want to send off another 2 minutes later.'
   333. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 09, 2022 at 11:08 AM (#6100123)
Fulham and Bournemouth have 11 and 12 points, but have both been pretty terrible overall.
   334. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 09, 2022 at 01:07 PM (#6100133)
I'm having to watch this in Spanish -- did they really give a penalty for that ticky-tacky garbage? I'm a lifelong Arsenal fan, but that was nothing.
   335. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 09, 2022 at 01:09 PM (#6100134)
Whatever, I'll take it.
   336. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 09, 2022 at 01:21 PM (#6100135)
Tomiyatsu is everywhere today. That God for him.
   337. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 09, 2022 at 01:23 PM (#6100136)
Now that should have been a penalty.
   338. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: October 09, 2022 at 01:31 PM (#6100137)
Not a new observation, but Liverpool's defenders just don't seem to know what to do anymore. Very bizarre.
   339. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 09, 2022 at 01:32 PM (#6100138)
Arsenal was all over Liverpool today. Soft penalty or no this was a very impressive performance by Arsenal and if the two teams played like this they Arsenal would win 80-90% of them.

It wasn't just Liverpool's defenders today. Arsenal was better on both ends of the field, and in the midfield as well.
   340. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 09, 2022 at 01:38 PM (#6100139)
It's time to talk seriously about the possibility that Liverpool doesn't finish in the top 4. Arsenal probably will finish ahead of them now, and Spurs could pretty easily as well. I wouldn't bet on United, but if Chelsea puts it together or gets a bit lucky, Liverpool could be out of luck.
   341. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 09, 2022 at 01:39 PM (#6100140)
Yeah, Arsenal was living in the penalty box in that second half. Could easily have scored 2-3 more goals.

This is a very fun team, especially after so many years in the doldrums post-Wenger. I mean, I think the chances they actually top City are less than 10%, but I am finally convinced they're the real deal. Mikel Arteta is either very lucky or very good.
   342. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 09, 2022 at 02:18 PM (#6100149)
This was by far the worst offensive performance by Liverpool on the year, measured by anything other than goals. It was also their worst overall performance except the game against Napoli.
   343. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 09, 2022 at 04:17 PM (#6100162)
EPL winner odds. Only Arsenal now has any real shot, per betting odds anyway:
                 PRE-SEASON   CURRENT
City                57          81.5

Arsenal              2.5        10

Chelsea              5           3
Liverpool           26           2.5
Tottenham            6           2.25
United               2           0.5            

Field                1.5         0.25
   344. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 09, 2022 at 04:30 PM (#6100164)
EPL Top 4 odds. Liverpool is close to 50/50 now. That might be the lowest odds they've had at any time in the last few years.
                 PRE-SEASON   CURRENT
City                96.5        99

Arsenal             37.5        77.5

Tottenham           59.5        58
Liverpool           87          54.5
Chelsea             56          52.5
United              30          36

Newcastle           8.5         11.5
Brighton            3            5.5
West Ham            5.5          2.5

Field              16.5          3

It's actually kind of astounding how little the preseason odds have changed for most of the top teams. Arsenal has gone up and Liverpool down, but that's pretty much it. The top 6 all have a lot of points in the table right now the top 5 positions plus Liverpool in 10th but with a game in hand), so it's not a year for the field.
   345. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 09, 2022 at 07:56 PM (#6100176)
I still think I like Liverpool over Chelsea and maybe even Spurs. But this is is not your older brother's Reds.
   346. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 10, 2022 at 08:45 AM (#6100239)
How soon we forget, I guess. On May 5. 2021, less than 1.5 years ago, Liverpool sat in 7th place with 5 games left. 7 points behind Chelsea and 9 points behind Leicester, but with a game in hand. Liverpool had just come off two bad draws, which had followed not long after 6 losses in 7 games, and had just 54 points in 33 games. 538 had them at 26% for top 4, and betting odds had to have been less than 1/3

Of course, Liverpool proceeded to finish the season with 5 straight wins, while Leicester lost 3 of their last 4. Chelsea also only won 2 of their last 4, so Liverpool finished ahead of both.
   347. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 10, 2022 at 10:44 AM (#6100250)
The VAR decisions on handball were a mess of inconsistency this week, with the one by Rashford called back but two others by West Ham allowed. I didn't see the Antonio one, but I thought it was pretty clear that under the current rules the Scamacca one should have been disallowed--it pretty clearly touched his hand which allowed him to more easily control the ball for the immediate goal. Yes, the touch was very slight, but had the ball come down 6 inches back of where it did it's a significantly harder ball to control and score.

Apparently Antonio's was far more blatant but had the mitigating factor of being further back in the play. Rashford's was between both of these (both in separation from actual goal and from goal and advantage gained), but kind of ridiculous that it would be disallowed while the other two stood. Under current rules probably all three should have been disallowed.
   348. spivey Posted: October 10, 2022 at 02:36 PM (#6100289)
Leicester donked off a couple CL qualifications and I think if they make one or both of those years they maybe aren’t in this situation. Margins are so fine for teams like that
   349. Mefisto Posted: October 10, 2022 at 03:40 PM (#6100298)
I had to watch the replay 3 times to see the ball strike Rashford's hand. Didn't see the others.
   350. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 10, 2022 at 04:07 PM (#6100302)
Yeah it's only visible from one angle. The Scamacca one is even more subtle, and also only visible from one angle, but it was the touch that allowed control of the ball immediately before the shot. Scamacca might have controlled the ball fine anyway without the touch with the hand, but you can't say that with certainty.

Antonio's was farther upfield, but the handling looked to be intentional. It's fairly shocking that it was allowed to stand.
   351. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 10, 2022 at 09:43 PM (#6100351)
EPL relegation
                 PRE-SEASON   CURRENT
Forest              41.5        71
Bournemouth         65          52

Leicester            6.5        30
Southampton         24.5        28
Wolves              15          26.5

Leeds               30          21.5
Fulham              39          19.5
Everton             22          16

Villa                4          12
Brentford           24          12
Palace              11.5         8

West Ham             3.5         1.5
Brighton            10           1.5
Newcastle            3           0.35

Top 6                0.25        0.15

edit: By 538's estimation, all of those bottom 11 teams are worse than they expected coming in, except Everton and Leeds, and then only by a little. For the top 6, only Arsenal and United have done better than 538 expected. The teams most better than expected by 538 are Newcastle (who should have an asterisk as 538 hated them for no good reason), Arsenal, and Brighton. 538 actually really liked Brighton to begin with, so they may be the surprise o the season, even more so than Arsenal.
   352. jmurph Posted: October 11, 2022 at 01:44 PM (#6100409)
Juventus is losing 2-0 at the half to Maccabi Haifa. Seems bad.
   353. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 11, 2022 at 01:55 PM (#6100412)
It's an absolute must win if they want to retain any prayer of advancing from the group. On the other hand, a loss, especially if they lose by 3, puts them at a good chance of finishing 4th and out of Europe entirely.
   354. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 11, 2022 at 02:47 PM (#6100430)
With that ignominious defeat, 538 now ranks Juve as close to the worst team in the CL group stage, just ahead of Zagreb and Shakhtar, though still quite a bit better than Pizen, Copenhagen, and Haifa. 69th best club team in the world.
   355. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 11, 2022 at 02:49 PM (#6100432)
10-man City could only draw on the road to Copenhagen. Seems like a Pep special where they take no chances at all, down a man and also without starting Haaland. Didn't see it though, so not sure what actually happened.

If they lose to Dortmund on the road now they likely finish second in the group. Not likely but well within the realm of possibility.
   356. jmurph Posted: October 11, 2022 at 03:05 PM (#6100436)
10-man City could only draw on the road to Copenhagen. Seems like a Pep special where they take no chances at all, down a man and also without starting Haaland. Didn't see it though, so not sure what actually happened.

Mahrez had a penalty saved, they had a goal ruled out after video review, and then the red. Played plenty well enough to win early and then didn't do a whole lot after the red.

(The penalty, the goal, and the red all could have gone either way but I don't think there was much to complain about in total.)
   357. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: October 11, 2022 at 03:56 PM (#6100447)
I think all three decisions were very obviously correct under the current interpretation of the rules (though I have stated many times that I detest the current handball rule, and don't think either *should* have been a foul).
   358. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 11, 2022 at 04:05 PM (#6100449)
All three handball calls were correct? No chance. The only possible way the Scamacca call was correct under the current rule is if you don't think he touched the ball with his hand, which he did clear as day on replay. Yeah maybe it's a bad rule but that should have been a handball. Even he knew it.

Antonio's should have never stood under any interpretation of the rule. You rarely see a more blatant intentional handball, since players know they can't get away with anything too obvious. There's a separate question about whether Antonio was fouled on the play, but two wrongs don't make a right.


DOGSO + pen in the Chelsea game. That one play puts Chelsea in the knockouts.
   359. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: October 11, 2022 at 04:45 PM (#6100458)
All three handball calls were correct?

I am talking about the 3 VAR decisions in the Copenhagen - City game. 2 of which were handballs (city goal, and city penalty) the other red card DOGSO against city.
   360. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 11, 2022 at 04:55 PM (#6100460)
Ah ok sorry.

6 draws in the first 48 CL group games was very, very low. Don't worry though, we had 5 draws in 8 games today.
   361. spivey Posted: October 11, 2022 at 08:04 PM (#6100497)
Allegri's fall from grace has been quick.
   362. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: October 11, 2022 at 08:30 PM (#6100501)
Negative 10 points for missing the music pun and going with 'Allegri's fall from grace has been allegro'.
   363. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 11, 2022 at 10:44 PM (#6100515)
So, a Saka jersey that fits a normal-sized adult man can't be had for love nor money at the moment. It's fun to be part of a fanbase that's getting excited for the first time in a long time.
   364. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 12, 2022 at 02:20 PM (#6100587)
With Napoli likely to win again, it's becoming highly likely that if Liverpool make sit out of the group they will finish second in the group, so will face a group winner in the KPs. That's hardly ideal, because their options are fairly limited if City, Chelsea, and Spurs all win their groups. Liverpool would likely face one of Bayern, Real Madrid, PSG, or.... Brugge.

Speaking of, Brugge is holding out against Atleti on the road. A draw does not kill off Atleti, but it sure makes their chances of reaching the KOs quite a bit harder. It would also make Brugge very likely to win the group.
   365. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 12, 2022 at 02:54 PM (#6100596)
Brugge is effectively through to the KOs! (Technically they are not through yet, but it would take a perfect storm of results to keep them out.)

Atleti is now touch and go. Win both their games and they are in though.

   366. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 12, 2022 at 03:24 PM (#6100603)
Sporting down to 10 after two quick yellows for Esagio. What a disaster for them, especially after playing with 10 al the last game too.
   367. spivey Posted: October 12, 2022 at 03:41 PM (#6100605)
Man Sporting just absolutely trying to hand their CL KO spot to Marseille.
   368. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 12, 2022 at 03:59 PM (#6100609)
It's the perfect storm for Spurs today. They will be big favorites for top spot in the group now.
   369. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 12, 2022 at 04:30 PM (#6100615)
Barcelona is in deep ####. They could be eliminated in 20 minutes. Even with a goal they are still in deep ####. They need to win this game.

edit: keeper wrong footed by a deflection. 2-2. It's game on.
   370. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 12, 2022 at 04:39 PM (#6100616)
Sporting down to 9 men. Porto up 0-3 on the road in a huge game. Talk about reversals of fortunes for those two teams.
   371. The Marksist Posted: October 12, 2022 at 04:43 PM (#6100617)
The scoreline hides it, but Liverpool looked just as shaky as they have all season in the first half today. Something changed at the half (I'm not a good enough observer to pick up what) and they dominated the entire second period.
   372. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 12, 2022 at 05:03 PM (#6100621)
What a crazy, crazy game was Barca/Inter. Ended 3-3, so all Inter need to do is beat Pizen (at home no less) and they qualify. That's very likely. The last game against Bayern would then be irrelevant.

For all Barca's improvement, they are going out at the group stage yet again.

Liverpool got a lot of goals but it makes no difference for their prospects. It's still lose by 2 to Ajax and they face elimination, and unless they beat Napoli by 3 or more they aren;t winning the group anyway.
   373. spivey Posted: October 12, 2022 at 05:15 PM (#6100623)
Barca are very, very good. But man, all of the lever pulling was a bet on their immediate and near term future income, and no CL KOs will be not good.
   374. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 12, 2022 at 05:25 PM (#6100626)
Barca was the better team on the day, but they ended up giving up a ton of big chances at the end, all of which mattered! Even the last one, which was missed, mattered quite a bit as it would have completely eliminated Barca. They probably would have been better served to try to apply more controlled pressure after Inter went level, but they seemed to panic early after Pique's error led to the first goal.
   375. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 12, 2022 at 05:58 PM (#6100633)
             ORIGINAL  AFTER R1  AFTER R2  AFTER R3  CURRENT
Group A
Napoli           44        66        78       97      100
Liverpool        88        79        84       92       98
Ajax             49        49        37       11        2
Rangers          19         6         1

Group B
Brugge           19        33        54       91      100
Porto            54        48        19       24       61
Atleti           75        89        74       50       34
Leverkusen       52        30        53       35        5

Group C    
Bayern           86        96        98       98      100
Inter            45        23        28       49       93
Barcelona        66        80        74       53        7
Pizen             3         1        <1

Group D
Tottenham        81        90        81       80       87
Marseille        43        32        11       20       47
Sporting         33        62        82       73       44
Frankfurt        43        16        26       27       22

Group E
Chelsea          88        79       69        81       95
Milan            74        78       82        73       66
Salzburg         30        28       33        36       33
Dinamo            8        15       16        10        6

Group F 
Real Madrid      94        97      >99       100      100
Leipzig          72        42       46        62       79
Shakhtar          9        24       28        25       21
Celtic           25        37       26        13

Group G
City             94        98      >99       100      100
Dortmund         61        74       74        96       97
Copenhagen        8         4        2         1        2
Sevilla          37        24       24         3        1

Group H
PSG              92        97       98        98      >99
Benfica          25        40       87        89       98
Juventus         82        62       15        13        2
Haifa             3         1       <1

Half the groups are basically decided now. There are still a few interesting games left though.
   376. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: October 12, 2022 at 08:04 PM (#6100647)
Hey, for once one of my calls was right.

106. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: August 25, 2022 at 08:41 PM (#6093299)
I'm not convinced Juve is locked in for group H over Benfica. They look pretty bad.
   377. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 13, 2022 at 05:13 PM (#6100779)
Took United 93 minutes to score at home against Omonia. On the other hand, xG was about 4.8-0.1. I didn't get a chance to watch the game, but there must have been some crazy misses.
   378. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 13, 2022 at 07:34 PM (#6100803)

Revised CL overall odds:
          PRE-DRAW    CURRENT
city         26         33

bayern       12         13
psg          14         11
liverpool    14         10.5

real madrid   7          7
chelsea       4          5.5
napoli        0.4        4.5
tottenham     4          4

inter         2          2
dortmund      1          1.5
benfica       0.4        1.5
barcelona     6          1

milan         1          0.8
leipzig       1          0.6
atleti        2          0.6
brugge        0.05       0.5
porto         0.25       0.4
sporting      0.15       0.3
marseille     0.2        0.3
frankfurt     0.2        0.2
shakhtar      0.15       0.2

last 11       4.2        0.5
   379. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 13, 2022 at 07:42 PM (#6100806)
Europa odds.
              PRE-DRAW    CURRENT
Arsenal          14         19.5
United           11.5       13.5

Betis             4          5.5
Sociedad          3          4.5
Freiburg          2          4
Roma              6.5        3.5

Lazio             4          2.5
PSV               2.5        2.5
Feyenoord         2          1.5
Rennes            1.5        1.5
Fenerbache        1          1.5
Monaco            1.5        1.5
Union Berlin      2          1
Braga             1.5        1
Saint Gilloise    1          1

Field (17 teams)  7.5        3

   380. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 14, 2022 at 09:54 PM (#6100834)
Europa odds:
               TO ADVANCE              WINNER
           ORIGINAL  CURRENT    ORIGINAL  CURRENT
Group A
Arsenal       95       100        75        88
PSV           68        80        18        12
Bodo Glimt    22        20         4         
Zurich        15                   3         

Group B
Rennes        74       100        38        56
Fenerbahce    63       100        35        44
Kyiv          43                  19              
AEK           20                   8        

Group C
Betis         87       100        34        99
Roma          93        70        59         
Ludogorets    16        30         5         1
HJK            4                   2        

Group D
St Gilloise   43       100        19        73
Braga         63        59        32        14
Union Berlin  69        41        35        13
Malmo         25                  14         

Group E
Sociedad      80       100        29        65
United        91       100        64        35
Sheriff       14                   3        
Omonia        15                   4        


Group F
Lazio         78        62        50        42
Feyenoord     66        62        26        39
Midtjylland   33        54        13        10
Sturm Graz    23        22        11         9


Group G
Freiburg      68       100        39        98
Qarabag       21        90        10         2
Nantes        48        10        21          
Olympiacos    63                  30          

Group H
Ferencvaros   24        68        14        49
Monaco        86        66        50        39       
Trabzonspor   42        60        17        11
Red Star      48         6        19         1
   381. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 14, 2022 at 09:56 PM (#6100835)
City is over 50% to win outright at Liverpool. The last time that was the case might have been several years ago.
   382. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 15, 2022 at 10:53 AM (#6100856)
If this score holds up, this bad Bournemouth team will be 6th in the table, behind only 5 of the top6 and ahead of Liverpool. Brighton and Newcastle would have a game in hand.

Fulham has also not really been any good this year either, despite their 11 points, and it's not so obvious to me why their relegation odds were so low coming into the game. Their xGD is terrible.
   383. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 15, 2022 at 11:49 AM (#6100861)
Fulham has had crazy possession in the Bournemouth half this entire second half, but aside from the penalty which came from a free kick, they've turned it into virtually no shots, and certainly no high xG ones. It's kind of astounding.
   384. spivey Posted: October 15, 2022 at 11:55 AM (#6100863)
Leverkusen got absolutely battered by Frankfurt today.

Didn't see it mentioned here, but Xabi Alonso is now Leverkusen's manager. They're currently sitting in the relegation zone. Their season has been an absolute disaster so far.
   385. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 15, 2022 at 12:07 PM (#6100866)
Yeah Leverkusen has been a massive disappointment in the league. Picked to be a likely top 4 coming into the season and now with almost no chance, and it hasn't been just bad luck with results. They've actually played better in the champions league, but weren't able to turn it into results and are virtually certain not to advance there either.

With Leverkusen slipping so badly, the door's open for a different team to finish in the top 4. Freiburg and Union right now have the inside track, but some of the usual suspects from recent years are there as well: Frankfurt, Gladbach, and Hoffenheim.
   386. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 15, 2022 at 12:44 PM (#6100872)
First Spurs free kick was worked beautifully but Richarlison shanked badly a wide open header. Infogol had xG as only 0.07, which was way too low. Second free kick was in a really dangerous position, but the wall looked to be only 7 yards away from Son. Nobody on Spurs complained, surprisingly, and Son kicked it square into the wall, chest high. So strange.
   387. spivey Posted: October 15, 2022 at 02:19 PM (#6100893)
Second half of this match was about as good as Tottenham has looked this year. Everton do suck of course, but their midfield is actually legit and that tends to be where Tottenham struggle. Richarlison getting hurt isn't good, but the 3 midfield formation for Tottenham was extremely strong.
   388. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: October 15, 2022 at 02:43 PM (#6100896)
Richarlison getting hurt isn't good, but the 3 midfield formation for Tottenham was extremely strong.

It's been pretty good every time it's happened this season, even though Bissouma hasn't been very good (until this game). When Kulusevski isn't playing I think it's their best formation.
   389. spivey Posted: October 15, 2022 at 03:00 PM (#6100898)
It's been pretty good every time it's happened this season, even though Bissouma hasn't been very good (until this game). When Kulusevski isn't playing I think it's their best formation.


I agree but I think Bissouma has to earn Conte's trust for it to happen. A match like today will go a long way.

Skipp also came on!

And Doherty was great again. When Tottenham started steam rolling teams late last year, a lot of it came down to Doherty getting in the starting 11 and putting up elite attacking numbers. I'm ready for that to happen again.
   390. spivey Posted: October 15, 2022 at 03:02 PM (#6100899)
Doherty's npxG+A/90 over the last year is 0.41. Limited minutes, but that's absolutely absurd from a wingback.

It's higher than TAA (0.37) and Reece James (0.31).
   391. spivey Posted: October 15, 2022 at 03:16 PM (#6100905)
One thing I noticed with Everton. They did not try to press AT ALL. That's almost unheard of today. Even the teams coming up from the championship generally try to press, at least some, these days.

Lampard had good results his first year with Chelsea, but as time has gone on, I'm not sure he knows what he's doing.
   392. spivey Posted: October 16, 2022 at 09:04 AM (#6101049)
A lot of great matchups today.

United v Newcastle
Liverpool v City
El Clasico
Marseille v PSG
   393. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 16, 2022 at 09:38 AM (#6101052)
The United/Newcastle game has been fun and high tempo from both sides, but pretty sloppy. So many bad passes.
   394. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: October 16, 2022 at 10:22 AM (#6101055)
Sancho just went down like he had been shot over what was quite minor contact. If he hadn't been quite so theatrical I think he genuinely would have had a better shot at getting a penalty there.

eta And immediately followed by another dive in the box by Casemiro.
   395. Baldrick Posted: October 16, 2022 at 10:27 AM (#6101057)
They also had a goal ruled out where Ronaldo was offside by like 10 yards, and then a goal ruled out when he pretended that the free kick had been taken and stole the ball from the keeper, in addition to the several absurd dives. All in the space of 15 minutes.
   396. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 16, 2022 at 11:00 AM (#6101060)
After a really dry 30 minutes of the second half, Newcastle seemed to run out of steam and United really dominated the last 15 minutes. Probably should have won but missed two big chances. Overall a draw was a fairly reasonable result, but United might be kicking themselves a little bit.
   397. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 16, 2022 at 11:27 AM (#6101063)
Both Arsenal and Chelsea were outplayed today, but it looks like both will end up with big away wins anyway. That puts Liverpool in a bigger hole. United too, if you think they have much chance of top 4.
   398. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 16, 2022 at 11:31 AM (#6101064)
whoa. some craziness. That's an absolute crazy red, and a penalty to boot. You have to wonder about that one... Going to VAR. If that's a penalty that is extremely unfair. The red seems slightly less unfair.

edit: no penalty, which seems like it has to be the right call. You could argue that there was a separate incident requiring a red after the Bamford foul, but even that seems pretty harsh, though not totally unfair. Anyway, the red was also not given.
   399. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 16, 2022 at 11:49 AM (#6101066)
Also worth noting that United looked way, way better after Rashford came on for Ronaldo in the 75th minute, which was the only (!!) sub Ten Hag made. Though, to be fair to him, United were playing way better than Newcastle from that point on maybe more subs were not necessary. Not so clear why no subs were made earlier.
   400. spivey Posted: October 16, 2022 at 12:01 PM (#6101069)
Big late goal by Barca, closing it to 2-1 with 10 minutes left. And another awkward shot from Fati that dribbles past the post by inches! Been a pretty even match and similar to their match with Bayern a loss would be a bit harsh in their two biggest matches of the season.
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