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Thursday, August 11, 2022

OT Soccer Thread - European Leages Return

The new season kicks off in Europe without a peep from the BBTF cognoscenti. Are the fans turned off by the stratospheric player salaries? Dismayed at increasing stratification in domestic leagues? Bored with the prospect of more meaningless Champions League group games? Gearing up for a World Cup boycott? Or, you know, just kind of tired in general. Whatever the reason, we can’t go without a soccer thread, surely!

The Marksist Posted: August 11, 2022 at 02:20 PM | 775 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: off-topic, soccer

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401. Spivey Posted: October 16, 2022 at 12:07 PM (#6101070)

Real Madrid with a late and somewhat questionable penalty for me. VAR showed the player as onside, though he didn't look it. Player did perhaps get stamped it seems, but hard to tell by how much, really, and it looked like the chance had maybe gone.

I dunno.

402. Spivey Posted: October 16, 2022 at 12:12 PM (#6101072)

Union Berlin v Dortmund is also a big match for CL in Bundesliga. Dortmund down 2-0 early including one on a pretty impressive blunder from the keeper.

403. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 16, 2022 at 12:29 PM (#6101075)

Union has only won the xG battle in 3 of 9 games this year, and are still overall negative on the year. They are up today though, but I'm guessing that might be mostly due to the GK blunder.

404. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 16, 2022 at 12:46 PM (#6101076)

Maybe two fouls by Haaland on that goal. Certainly the shirt pull they gave, but also Alisson may have had possession when Haaland kicked it out of his hands. This game has gotten pretty wild all of a sudden.

That outside of the boot one touch pass by Salah was sublime, and the earlier save by Ederson was very good too.

405. Spivey Posted: October 16, 2022 at 12:46 PM (#6101077)

As I texted my Liverpool friends, I think Liverpool could finish top 4 if they play the rest of their matches at home.

In truth, if they get healthy and are able to play Thiago and Fabinho in pretty much every match, I could see them ripping off a both of wins in a row.

Their first choice 11 should still be very, very good.

406. Spivey Posted: October 16, 2022 at 01:07 PM (#6101078)

City are the best team in the world, but they've been that for a few years. I still don't trust any of their individual CBs to not #### up in high leverage situations besides Ruben Dias, and it's hard to win the CL with those mistakes in your team.

That CB had no business being turned by Salah on the goal.

407. Spivey Posted: October 16, 2022 at 01:13 PM (#6101080)

Liverpool/City matches are so entertaining.

408. Spivey Posted: October 16, 2022 at 01:22 PM (#6101081)

Darwin Nunez is such a god damn donkey.

409. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 16, 2022 at 01:43 PM (#6101082)

EPL winner odds. Things tightening up a tad. Huge win for Liverpool, and they played extremely well to boot.

                 PRE-SEASON   CURRENT
City                57          76

Arsenal              2.5        12.75

Liverpool           26           3.5
Tottenham            6           3.5
Chelsea              5           3.5
United               2           0.5            

Field                1.5         0.25

410. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 16, 2022 at 01:54 PM (#6101084)

EPL Top 4 odds. Liverpool's gain today is United's loss.

                 PRE-SEASON   CURRENT
City                96.5        98.5

Arsenal             37.5        77.5
Liverpool           87          68
Tottenham           59.5        58
Chelsea             56          55.5

United              30          27

Newcastle           8.5          8
Brighton            3            4
West Ham            5.5          1.5

Field              16.5          2

City, Spurs, Chelsea, United, Newcastle, and Brighton are pretty much right where when the season started. Arsenal is way up, Liverpool is down quite a bit, and the field has been devastated.

411. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: October 16, 2022 at 02:09 PM (#6101087)

Both Arsenal and Chelsea were outplayed today, but it looks like both will end up with big away wins anyway.

Gunners looked like absolute dirt for most of the match, it's true. What's really weird is is the Jekyll and Hyde routine from Liverpool. If the side that played City today had showed up at Emirates, that would have been a completely different game.

412. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: October 16, 2022 at 02:11 PM (#6101088)

the field has been devastated.

A question: wouldn't that be typical, after a few matches? Results shake out a little bit and the sort of generic "field" starts falling away? Or is my intuition totally out of whack?

413. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: October 16, 2022 at 03:18 PM (#6101095)

Basically, yes. There is always a small, but significant chance that a surprise team materialises and puts everything together. But if that team doesn't materialise, the chances drop away very quickly. So basically, you can quickly tell if they go to nothing, or if they go way up.

414. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: October 16, 2022 at 04:23 PM (#6101100)

There is always a small, but significant chance that a surprise team materialises and puts everything together. But if that team doesn't materialise, the chances drop away very quickly. So basically, you can quickly tell if they go to nothing, or if they go way up.

Okay, yeah. That's a much more cogent way of saying what I was thinking.

415. SoSH U at work Posted: October 16, 2022 at 04:58 PM (#6101102)

Basically, yes. There is always a small, but significant chance that a surprise team materialises and puts everything together. But if that team doesn't materialise, the chances drop away very quickly. So basically, you can quickly tell if they go to nothing, or if they go way up.

In one sense, I'm sure that's true. But in another, the field is almost always going to go down, because the one team that does put things together is going to no longer be part of the "field."

416. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: October 16, 2022 at 05:13 PM (#6101105)

Yes, I am assuming this is compared to preseason odds, so the field teams remain constant.

417. jmurph Posted: October 17, 2022 at 08:15 AM (#6101165)

I assume these things are factored into the various odds, but Manchester City haven't actually beaten anyone good yet in the league (depending on your thoughts on United). Just seems worth noting.

418. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 17, 2022 at 09:07 AM (#6101173)

The "field" teams have not remained constant in my posts, because (e.g.), Villa and Leicester were given a better chance to make top 4 than Brighton coming into the year. So 415 is basically correct.

Pre-season odds copied from Post 2 of this thread.

top 4
Manchester City       96.5
Liverpool             87
 
Tottenham             59.5
Chelsea               56

Arsenal               37.5
Manchester United     30

Newcastle              8.5
West Ham               5.5
Villa                  4.5
Leicester              4 
Brighton               3
Palace                 1.5
Wolves                 1.5
Everton                1.5 

Field                  3.5

That said, no matter how you defined "field", assuming reasonably that nobody in the Top 6 properly belongs in the field, then the field this year has been devastated. Coming in to this year teams outside the top 6 were given 33.5%, and now are at less than half that. If Newcastle as a dark horse was not in your personal "field", then it has gone from 25% down to 7.5% I don't think it's necessarily true for most years that only 1/4 of the way through the season the field drops so much. It is true that near the end of the season it's more binary--where most years all the field teams are out of it but occasionally a field team still has a very high chance. This early in the season though I don't think that's normally so true.

By the way, I was going to look at 538's odds to see what had happened with their "field" teams (however you want to define it for Top 4 slots), but quickly realized that was a bad idea. For whatever reason, their odds for anybody outside the top 6 of making the Top 4 slots have been way too high every year. In some ways 538 is systematically better than betting odds, but in other ways, such as this, they are worse. Considering their non-top6 odds are too high to begin with, you would certainly expect a big dropoff each year to happen quickly, even if the betting odds non-top6 remained constant.

419. Spivey Posted: October 17, 2022 at 09:21 AM (#6101176)

I think Newcastle is pretty legit, and could have been a top 4 contender in a number of recent years where the 4th best team in the league has been just "good". The trouble for them is they probably needed one or both of Tottenham/Arsenal to have a down year, and that doesn't look likely right now.

I missed a lot of the second half of the United game but in the first half I think they'd gotten the better of it. A draw on the road against a good team is still a solid result. It'll be interesting to see if they try to add anyone in the winter window. They've built very sensibly/slowly, much more in the City mold.

420. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 17, 2022 at 09:23 AM (#6101178)

There's a silly ESPN article saying how this year the EPL winner race is more wide open than in recent years. Except that couldn't be more wrong. City has started strongly and Liverpool has not, so the title race is in a worse spot than it has been in for years. In fact, everyone's odds are down except City and Arsenal. Maybe we'll get lucky and have a race that lasts late into the year, but Liverpool's poor start, and City's pretty good start, means that we shouldn't expect it to happen this year.

For example, last year after 10 games the title race was much, much more in doubt. Chelsea led the league with 25 points, Liverpool was in second with 22, City tied with West Ham for 3rd with 20. Even Arsenal and United had 17 each. Overall that's fairly similar, though already tighter than this year, with the massive difference of Liverpool being two points up on City rather than 10 points down (though with one game in hand).

edit: You have to go back 5 years to find a season where the title race was less in doubt after 10 games, when City started very, very hot and Liverpool started the year like this one. 76% is no guarantee though, so City could still lose out with some luck for the rest of the league. Even if they win it in the end, there is likely to be some tense moments along the way.

421. Mefisto Posted: October 17, 2022 at 09:29 AM (#6101180)

@419: It was an even game and a draw was a fair result. Both teams had a good chance to win but missed the net.

United play Spurs and Chelsea in their next 2 games I believe, so look for them to drop points.

422. Mefisto Posted: October 17, 2022 at 09:32 AM (#6101181)

By the way, there was a weird play in the second half of the United game. Offside call against United about 10 yards outside the Newcastle box. Pope put the ball on the ground and the ref whistled play to begin. Pope just stood there contemplating his options. Ronaldo then ran up, took the ball, and passed it into an open net. Ref called it back and booked Ronaldo, but why?

423. SoSH U at work Posted: October 17, 2022 at 09:53 AM (#6101182)

Ref called it back and booked Ronaldo, but why?

It was an indirect free kick and the kick had not been taken (if the referee had deemed Trippier's touch was the kick, he would have lowered his arm since Newcastle could not have scored off of that touch). Since his arm was raised throughout, the free kick had not yet been taken and thus Ronaldo could not just swoop in. The booking was probably because Ronaldo should have known that and/or for disregarding the whislte and/or for general dickery.

424. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 17, 2022 at 10:13 AM (#6101183)

I think the card was excessive. I think Ronaldo thought there was at least a small chance play had already started, so it was worth the risk.

So many acts in the game are taken that are truly cynical and cause delay, like standing right in front of the free kick
(happens multiple times a game) and no card is given for those. Seems excessive to give one here as I don't think it was pure dickery on Ronaldo's part.

(In a cosmic sense give him a yellow, because I generally dislike Ronaldo and thinks he's a terrible drag on this United team, and probably a pretty terrible teammate and person. But from a pure sporting sense it seemed like a bad use of the card.)

425. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 17, 2022 at 10:21 AM (#6101186)

United really took it to Newcastle in the last 15 minutes of that game. Caley has the game overall at 1.7-0.8 xG, FWIW, and understat is similar. The first 75 minutes were fairly even and you can even give Newcastle the edge, but overall United were a little unlucky not to win. That said, the game was at home so they should be performing better than Newcastle even if the teams are evenly matched. There was little on this day to suggest United were the better team in general, especially with Saint-Maximin out.

426. Mefisto Posted: October 17, 2022 at 11:28 AM (#6101202)

423 must be the explanation but I basically agree with 424, including the last 2 sentences.

427. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: October 17, 2022 at 02:31 PM (#6101224)

There's a silly ESPN article saying how this year the EPL winner race is more wide open than in recent years.

I think pieces get written like this when what they really mean is, "Hey, maybe someone other than City and Liverpool will finish 1-2."

428. SoSH U at work Posted: October 17, 2022 at 02:41 PM (#6101231)

I think Ronaldo thought there was at least a small chance play had already started, so it was worth the risk.

No argument there. It was worth a shot. The entire Man U club subsequently surrounding the ref and trying to argue against the obvious was less reasonable.

429. Spivey Posted: October 17, 2022 at 04:17 PM (#6101251)

Benzema wins the Ballon d'Or. Not surprising. He carried Real Madrid through a lot of CL ties they were outplayed with extremely clutch goal scoring.

430. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: October 17, 2022 at 06:38 PM (#6101283)

Caley has the game overall at 1.7-0.8 xG

Newcastle were denied what I thought was a pretty clear penalty. Which is about 0.8xG right there. And had another pretty decent shout on a pretty aggressive shirt pull (that they only showed one replay of).

431. SoSH U at work Posted: October 17, 2022 at 06:51 PM (#6101285)

And had another pretty decent shout on a pretty aggressive shirt pull (that they only showed one replay of).

Was it this one?

I didn't see the first half, so I haven't seen video of it or the Wilson play all the Toon fans are complaining about.

432. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: October 17, 2022 at 07:26 PM (#6101291)

Yeah, that looks about right. It was definitely on Dan Burn.

433. I am going to be Frank Posted: October 17, 2022 at 07:28 PM (#6101292)

I’m finding it hilarious that nycfc is hosting their playoff game at citi field.

434. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: October 17, 2022 at 07:30 PM (#6101293)

The Wilson one, Varane stepped across Wilson, and made solid contact on the upper thigh. Not close to playing the ball. Anywhere other than Man U's penalty box at OT, and that is a foul, clear as day.

435. Mefisto Posted: October 17, 2022 at 07:39 PM (#6101296)

I thought United had 2 good complaints about penalties, one on Ronaldo and one on Sancho. I agree that Varane should have been called for one also.

436. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: October 17, 2022 at 08:19 PM (#6101306)

I mentioned the Sancho one as it happened. And like I said at the time, the way he launched himself, I don't think he was ever getting that. If he had been somewhat less theatrical about it, he could have had a shout. I don't recall a Ronaldo one, maybe I missed it.

437. Mefisto Posted: October 17, 2022 at 08:52 PM (#6101313)

The Ronaldo one was similar to the Wilson/Varane -- defender stepped across him without getting the ball.

438. jmurph Posted: October 18, 2022 at 07:53 AM (#6101357)

I mentioned the Sancho one as it happened. And like I said at the time, the way he launched himself, I don't think he was ever getting that. If he had been somewhat less theatrical about it, he could have had a shout.

I'm a United hater for the record, but totally agree and said as much at the time to a friend. Clear penalty in real time to me, though, but referees have a difficult job when guys so obviously swan dive through the air like that.

439. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 18, 2022 at 08:23 AM (#6101361)

I watched the Ronaldo indirect free kick play again. He seemed to be watching the ball the whole time so may have never seen the ref with the arm raised, who was more or less directly behind him most of the way down the field. Much more importantly, the ref is supposed to keep his arm raised until a second person touches the ball! So the arm being raised has no bearing on whether the indirect kick had already been taken.

From the laws of the game:

The referee indicates an indirect free kick by raising the arm above the head; this signal is maintained until the kick has been taken and the ball touches another player, goes out of play or it is clear that a goal cannot be scored directly.

440. SoSH U at work Posted: October 18, 2022 at 08:27 AM (#6101362)

So the arm being raised has no bearing on whether the indirect kick had already been taken.

From the laws of the game:

The referee indicates an indirect free kick by raising the arm above the head; this signal is maintained until the kick has been taken and the ball touches another player, goes out of play or it is clear that a goal cannot be scored directly.

Except the third part of that statement answers that. If the free kick had already been taken by Trippier, it was clear that a goal could not have been scored directly, therefore the arm would have come down.

441. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 18, 2022 at 08:30 AM (#6101363)

You can see the whole play here (including all the dead time before the ball is kicked). I don't think it was, or should be, a goal, because it seems pretty clear nobody on Newcastle thought the free kick had been taken yet. That said, it's well worth the risk by Ronaldo and not at all merely a cheeky play.

442. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 18, 2022 at 08:48 AM (#6101366)

The refs at r/referees seem to think the normal course of action for the ref is to keep the hand in the air until the ball is touched by another player, so the hand staying up is not dispositive. Anyway, Ronaldo certainly did not look back to the ref to see if the hand was still up once the ball had stopped rolling, since he was watching the ball and the GK the whole way.

443. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 18, 2022 at 08:55 AM (#6101367)

Also, the FA's own handbook has a slightly different rule, that does not include the last part. (Not sure what is up with their grammar and punctuation.):

Signals
Direct Free Kick: the Referee keeps one arm horizontal pointing in the direction the kick has to be taken
Indirect Free Kick: the Referee indicates an indirect free kick by raising their arm above their head. They maintains their
arm in that position until the kick has been taken and the ball has touched another player or goes out of play

444. SoSH U at work Posted: October 18, 2022 at 09:05 AM (#6101368)

Anyway, Ronaldo certainly did not look back to the ref to see if the hand was still up once the ball had stopped rolling, since he was watching the ball and the GK the whole way.

I have no problem with Ronaldo trying it. And I don't necessarily think a booking was in order.

But the entire team (many of whom who could see the referee's hand) haranguing him over what was obviously not a goal was a bit much.

445. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 18, 2022 at 09:11 AM (#6101370)

You won't get an argument from me about surrounding the ref. If I were in charge surrounding the ref would always be a mandatory booking for someone on the offending team. If they can't figure out who to give it to they should give it to the captain.

Arm raised is still irrelevant though, so shouldn't be cited any further.

446. SoSH U at work Posted: October 18, 2022 at 09:16 AM (#6101371)

Arm raised is still irrelevant though, so shouldn't be cited any further.

Well, your link sucks so I'm not going to just take your word for it.

But this one is also from the FA that says otherwise.

INDIRECT FREE KICK SIGNAL

The referee indicates an indirect free kick by raising the arm above the head; this signal is maintained until the kick has been taken and the ball touches another player, goes out of play or it is clear that a goal cannot be scored directly.

447. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: October 18, 2022 at 09:36 AM (#6101372)

You won't get an argument from me about surrounding the ref. If I were in charge surrounding the ref would always be a mandatory booking for someone on the offending team. If they can't figure out who to give it to they should give it to the captain.

I think football needs a very clear rule, that the only people allowed to talk to the referee during a dispute are the involved player and the captain. Anybody else gets within 5 yards of the ref in order to try and pressure them, and it's an automatic yellow. Give assistant refs / the fourth referee authority to police that, so the ref can focus on the dispute. And outside of that, any type of harassment or yelling is also a yellow. The mobbing situation needs to stop, and has for a long time now.

448. Russ Posted: October 18, 2022 at 09:53 AM (#6101377)

Benzema wins the Ballon d'Or. Not surprising. He carried Real Madrid through a lot of CL ties they were outplayed with extremely clutch goal scoring.

Agreed. He has made some questionable decisions in his life, but there is no denying that he was fabulous last year and I do not think anyone can claim they clearly had a better season than he did. I do wonder if there was some vote splitting between Salah and Mane which made them both lower than they could have been in the final count, but ultimately Benzema checked all the boxes and it was well deserved (again setting aside his personal faults).

449. Spivey Posted: October 18, 2022 at 10:12 AM (#6101384)

Mane finishing 2nd was ridiculous btw. He was good last year but it was probably his worst year of the last 5, and got it seemingly entirely due to winning AFCON. He was much worse than both Salah and Son. How much the voters overrate you being on the winning or far advancing team in national tournaments is kind of ridiculous imo.

450. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 18, 2022 at 04:25 PM (#6101465)

Kind of astounding that Brighton pulls this same act year after year. They are better now than they have ever been (538 ranks them ahead of United and Newcastle, and even with the draw they are probably still top 25 in ELO), but after today they are yet again underperforming their xG by a big margin.

451. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: October 18, 2022 at 06:25 PM (#6101502)

but after today they are yet again underperforming their xG by a big margin.

After a while you have to at least wonder if there's something systematic about how they play that breaks xG. If I were still into doing calculus about sports, maybe I'd try to figure it out. But these days I leave that to the pros.

452. The Marksist Posted: October 19, 2022 at 09:10 AM (#6101584)

After a while you have to at least wonder if there's something systematic about how they play that breaks xG.

I'd just start with the fact that they don't have a striker. Their xG is dominated by Pascal Gross, Danny Welbeck, and Leandro Trossard, all of whom I think are good players, but none of whom I'd be surprised to learn are below average finishers. Put, I don't know, Ivan Toney up top and you might get a different outcome.

453. Spivey Posted: October 19, 2022 at 09:13 AM (#6101586)

I agree with 452. They seem to systematically target players that do everything but score, and set up their team in that way. xG normalizes generally because most of the xG chances are taken by a biased sample of wingers, forwards, and attacking mids. They build a team that helps them control the game at the expense of goal scorers.

And I think if they had better finishers, they'd have to fundamentally change how they play (unless the attackers were guys like Firmino, Sterling, Jesus, etc. that are also really good at pressuring and playing in a possession style on top of scoring. But they can't draw those kind of players)

Note: Yes, to be fair, they are playing more with guys like Welbeck now. But historically have played with Maupay, who is good at things that helps make their system work, but scoring goals is not one of them.

454. The Marksist Posted: October 19, 2022 at 09:57 AM (#6101595)

And I think if they had better finishers, they'd have to fundamentally change how they play (unless the attackers were guys like Firmino, Sterling, Jesus, etc. that are also really good at pressuring and playing in a possession style on top of scoring. But they can't draw those kind of players)

455. Spivey Posted: October 19, 2022 at 10:20 AM (#6101602)

There's probably a middle ground in there. Your Firmino's before he arrived at Liverpool or the best pressing striker in the Championship or something. You might have to tune the systems slightly away from controlled possession, but maybe not enough to destabilize it entirely.

I agree. Bamford (before he got hurt) was also a great example. Danny Ings was too, imo. Though maybe mostly on the pressing and tenacity front.

I do feel like they are just a guy or two away. But at the same time, I'm sympathetic to the fact that they've been playing at a mid-table level and recruiting well in a number of other areas, while not spending at a mid-table EPL level. I try to also look at it as glass half full - they are punching above their weight.

456. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 19, 2022 at 11:20 AM (#6101614)

Of course you never know how things will turn out ultimately, but my guess is that these few years--the last two, this one, and with luck one or two more, will be looked back on for a long time as Brighton's high water mark. It's going to be very difficult for them to maintain this level of performance with their resources.

457. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 19, 2022 at 03:31 PM (#6101671)

I switched away from the West Ham game because it didn't look like they would ever manage a shot. It appears things have changed in a hurry, and Liverpool is very lucky to be leading still.

458. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 19, 2022 at 04:31 PM (#6101689)

West Ham didn't have a shot for the first 45 minutes. Their first half shots came in injury time. They ended up with 1.9xG + a penalty. Liverpool looked shakier than ever at times but still got the win anyway.

459. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: October 19, 2022 at 04:42 PM (#6101692)

No such flurry of xg from Everton, who managed a massive 0.06xg against Newcastle. 1 shot, not on target.

460. The Marksist Posted: October 19, 2022 at 04:59 PM (#6101696)

Weird performance from Liverpool. Looked totally dominant for almost the entire first half, gave up a silly penalty (saved), then faded badly later in the second half. The sub pattern makes me think Klopp was aggressively managing minutes, which makes sense given how many injuries they have now. You'd still probably expect the lineup to at least hold its own against West Ham they way they've been playing.

461. Mefisto Posted: October 19, 2022 at 05:11 PM (#6101698)

Spurs looked kind of listless today. Or maybe United were just really good (I'd like to think that).

462. I am going to be Frank Posted: October 19, 2022 at 05:15 PM (#6101701)

Forgot Son was even on the field.

463. Spivey Posted: October 19, 2022 at 05:19 PM (#6101702)

Spurs are pretty inconsistent. But United deserve credit. They're starting to look a lot better, hungrier.

Spurs need to get their game right because they have Newcastle and then an important CL match in their next wo.

464. SoSH U at work Posted: October 19, 2022 at 05:23 PM (#6101703)

Spurs are pretty inconsistent. But United deserve credit. They're starting to look a lot better, hungrier.

Spurs have obviously gotten off to a good start, but it seems like they've been pretty poor against the teams at the top.

465. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 19, 2022 at 05:38 PM (#6101706)

It's been the same story all year for Spurs, in the EPL anyway. They have beaten up on the weak teams at home, and looked mediocre at best away to good teams. Nothing too surprising about that, except they've taken it a bit further than most teams tend to. This weekend they have a good team at home for the first time (Newcastle) so we'll see what happens.

Home against weak team: Southampton, Wolves, Fulham, Leicester, Everton
Record: 5 wins
Goals: 15 -- 4
xGoals: 9.5 + pen -- 2.8 + pen

Away against good teams: Chelsea, West Ham, Arsenal, Brighton, United
Record: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses
Goals: 5 -- 8
xGoals: 4.4 + pen -- 8.5

They also beat up on Forest on the road, which is not listed above, since it doesn't fit into either category, unless you would recategorize with just good and bad teams, forgetting home/away. If you do that it's even more lopsided.

Interestingly, they haven't yet played the few teams that appear right now to be the most midtable, unless you want to count West Ham or maybe Brighton. The most midtable right now are probably Villa, Palace, and Brentford.

466. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 19, 2022 at 06:02 PM (#6101710)

EPL winner odds haven't really changed much, though things are looking just slightly more rosy for Liverpool.

Top 4 odds are kind of interesting:

                 PRE-SEASON   CURRENT
City                96.5        98.5

Arsenal             37.5        79
Liverpool           87          70

Chelsea             56          51
Tottenham           59.5        49
United              30          36

Newcastle           8.5         11

Brighton            3            3
West Ham            5.5          1

Field              16.5          1.5

Chelsea and Spurs are basically each 50/50 for top 4 now, and United is very much still in the picture. Newcastle may be making waves. If they beat Spurs people will be really taking them seriously.

It's a year where all of the top 6, and Newcastle too, have points. So even with Spurs' good start they are falling back slightly from where they started.

467. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: October 19, 2022 at 06:18 PM (#6101715)

It's definitely been a weird schedule for Spurs with all of their hardest games away from home so far.

Today was very bad. I may be reading too much into one player's absence but it seems like in some games they're very dependent on Kulusevski to get anything going offensively.

468. Spivey Posted: October 20, 2022 at 01:06 PM (#6101815)

Sounds like Ronaldo refused to come on as a sub and won't be in the squad against Chelsea. Life comes at you fast.

469. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 20, 2022 at 01:44 PM (#6101819)

Do we know he actually refused to come on as a sub? He certainly left the bench early when there were still subs available, which is already plenty bad enough. Refusing to come when called absent unexpected injury or something similar is grounds for immediate removal from the team, for probably much more than 1 game, in my opinion.

470. Spivey Posted: October 20, 2022 at 01:57 PM (#6101821)

We don't know, I don't think - but a journalist did report it. Of course, soccer journalism in Europe is filled with all sorts of lies, so they should be taken with a grain of salt.

That said, we may not find out for sure. United seem to be playing it close to the vest and letting Ronaldo hang himself.

471. SoSH U at work Posted: October 20, 2022 at 01:58 PM (#6101822)

From what I saw, he wasn't called on, and so he left the bench before the match ended. That's if whatever UK rags I was reading about the issue were accurate.

472. I am going to be Frank Posted: October 20, 2022 at 02:25 PM (#6101823)

I've had minimal exposure to Ray Hudson, but I would seriously question the sanity of anyone who enjoys him.

473. I am going to be Frank Posted: October 20, 2022 at 02:27 PM (#6101824)

Apparently he did refuse to come on and will not be in the squad for Saturday's match and is being asked to train by himself.

474. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 20, 2022 at 02:45 PM (#6101828)

Wow. Then I'm not the least bit surprised then that he is out against Chelsea. My guess is he is out for longer, as it's such an unacceptable move by a teammate. They do have Sheriff coming up at home which he probably would have started were it not for this, so I guess maybe they bring him back for that game. I wouldn't if I were in charge. 470 is right that United are letting him hang himself, and more power to them. His stock among the fan base has never been lower and for the first time now they could probably just ask him not to come back until after the World Cup (if ever) and there would probably be little outcry.

Some of the fanbase still think he can be "sold" for something, but there's no way that happens unless United eats most of the wages through the end of the year.

475. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 20, 2022 at 03:26 PM (#6101837)

Arsenal with about as dominant a performance as you will see today against PSV, though they only managed the one goal. They are very close to locking up top spot in the group now.

476. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: October 20, 2022 at 03:36 PM (#6101838)

Arsenal with about as dominant a performance as you will see today against PSV, though they only managed the one goal. They are very close to locking up top spot in the group now.

It was really a thrashing of a pretty good Dutch squad. It was one of those matches that felt like the score was 3-0 instead of 1-0. Anyway, I'll take the result. Gave up no goals to a side that scored 11 in its previous three matches, too.

477. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 20, 2022 at 07:18 PM (#6101869)

EPL relegation-after the bottom 2 it's anyone's guess now.

                 PRE-SEASON   CURRENT
Forest              41.5        71.5
Bournemouth         65          55

Leicester            6.5        26.5
Southampton         24.5        25
Wolves              15          24.5
Leeds               30          23
Everton             22          22
Villa                4          18
Fulham              39          16.5

Brentford           24           7.75
Palace              11.5         5
West Ham             3.5         3
Brighton            10           2.5

Newcastle            3           0.2

Top 6                0.25        0.05

478. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 20, 2022 at 07:54 PM (#6101873)

Gerrard is out at Villa.

Villa has had terrible results, but their underlying stats haven't been nearly as bad. They've suffered from poor finishing among other things. Still they've been a disappointment considering they came into the year with lots of hopes. Betting odds had them as 9th coming into the season after Newcastle and West Ham. If they had beaten Leeds and Forest, as they probably should have, they'd be at 13 points and Gerrard would still have a job.

479. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: October 20, 2022 at 08:04 PM (#6101874)

Gerrard is out at Villa.

Bummer. He was one of my favorite players back in his day. It often seemed like he was the only player who actually played well on those hugely underperforming England teams of the 90s and early 00s. And it was easy to root for someone who played for Liverpool back in those days, when he was often their main, if not only, bright spot.

480. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: October 20, 2022 at 08:16 PM (#6101876)

Said at the time that I hated him ditching Rangers for Villa. Never saw the upside. And hard to see an easy path to a top team for him now, outside of some major turmoil at Liverpool and them wanting to go with a fan fave.

481. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 21, 2022 at 12:19 PM (#6101958)

I disagreed with that about Gerrard. While things could have gone worse for him, for example, by being relegated after taking over, it certainly hasn't been a good outcome so far.

I still doubt he would have been better off at Rangers awaiting a better spot than Villa, though. I guess the idea was that if he kept on doing very well at Rangers a Top 6 team in England would give him a shot directly from Rangers? That seems questionable unless Rangers continued to set the world on fire, which is not so easy to do. (And they aren't doing it now, for example.)

Villa was also a significant step up from Rangers, and he probably would only have needed to have done reasonably well there to eventually get a shot. If he's a good enough coach to make it in the top half of the EPL he'll get another shot at this eventually. Even if he's not, he'll likely bounce back from this at the very least to the level of a Rangers again.

Relatedly and somewhat notably, Tuchel has apparently turned down Villa as not a big enough club for him. He has also apparently turned down two other EPL clubs as well as Leverkusen. He's definitely looking for a top job, which must mean one of the top 10-15 or so teams in the world: EPL top 6 plus maybe Newcastle, the top 2 in Spain, Bayern, PSG, and maybe a few others, like Atleti, Dortmund, Leipzig, Juve, and Inter. Not even a second glance at Villa means he is not going down very far on the list yet. I'm not sure if any of those top jobs are likely to become available soon, but one probably will.

482. Spivey Posted: October 21, 2022 at 12:35 PM (#6101961)

I still doubt he would have been better off at Rangers awaiting a better spot than Villa, though. I guess the idea was that if he kept on doing very well at Rangers a Top 6 team in England would give him a shot directly from Rangers? That seems questionable unless Rangers continued to set the world on fire, which is not so easy to do. (And they aren't doing it now, for example.)

Pirlo and Lampard got elite jobs with almost no coaching experience. Pirlo I think had literally none, he got the job before he even had all of the required badges. Zidane I think had only coached as an assistant and with youth teams.

Getting the big jobs is definitely an old boys club and being a legend can allow you to skip proving yourself. So from that perspective, it's hard to say - Gerard is a legend and maybe would have been better off hoping for that. Trying to work his way into the inner circle of coaches "traditionally" is really, really tough. Who has done that recently? Poch, Ten Hag, Nagelsmann, Potter? I guess there are a few, but the hit rate is so, so low.

Villa just has a bit of a glass ceiling. Even Potter's results with Brighton maybe wouldn't have been viewed the same way at Villa.

483. Mefisto Posted: October 21, 2022 at 02:06 PM (#6101983)

Ten Hag confirmed that Ronaldo refused to take the field against Spurs. Such an #######.

484. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 21, 2022 at 02:08 PM (#6101984)

ok that's all fair. Those guys got signed for clubs they played for though, which for Gerrard is only Liverpool. I don't doubt that had he kept a low profile and only managed on "easy" jobs maybe Liverpool would have put him in there if they got desperate or as a caretaker after sacking someone mid-season. I'm not sure that won't still happen though. Even for that probably Rangers wasn't the ideal spot for him, though maybe it was considering the competition in the SPL is so weak.

Lampard and Pirlo are not exactly managing success stories.

edit: somehow I didn't notice Zidane above. Same story about having played for the club, but obviously he was a success story so that is different.

485. Spivey Posted: October 22, 2022 at 09:39 AM (#6102072)

Maybe Liverpool ain't all that.

486. Mefisto Posted: October 22, 2022 at 10:17 AM (#6102073)

They certainly can't seem to fix their midfield.

487. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 22, 2022 at 10:47 AM (#6102074)

City had three or four half penalty shouts, and were given one of them. The one they were given was certainly contact worthy of a foul, but the ball may have been gone. It's one of those where it's not totally clear VAR is supposed to get involved under the current guidelines, and seems to intervene inconsistently. If it had been called on the field VAR would certainly not have intervened.

The first route one goal was well done, and created by Brighton's early pressing on City goal kicks (pretty effectively too). I'm guessing that won't be Ederson's last assist on a Haaland goal this year.

488. Russlan is not Russian Posted: October 22, 2022 at 01:26 PM (#6102093)

Ten Hag confirmed that Ronaldo refused to take the field against Spurs. Such an #######.

Why would you put Ronaldo into a game with just a few minutes left in it and you are up 2-0? Sure, I get the idea that he is being paid and should do what he asked no matter what but this team has generally struggled to score goals, something that he is still really good at. I just don't understand what the coach is trying to prove to ask him to come in so late in the game when his skill set is not what is needed at the moment.

489. Spivey Posted: October 22, 2022 at 01:33 PM (#6102096)

The first route one goal was well done, and created by Brighton's early pressing on City goal kicks (pretty effectively too). I'm guessing that won't be Ederson's last assist on a Haaland goal this year.

I'm not saying Haaland fouled him there, but 9 out of 10 times they call that a foul on the offensive player. Maybe a bit of justice since they didn't get the penalty right before and I wonder if that's part of why the ref let the play continue. I think there's a human bias of not wanting to give to many 50/50s to the same team.

490. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 22, 2022 at 01:36 PM (#6102099)

Why would you put Ronaldo into a game with just a few minutes left in it and you are up 2-0?

Realistically that's the only time to put him on now in an important game. It's that or nothing. (Slight exaggeration about how he will be used, but that's actually my view right now.)

491. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 22, 2022 at 01:39 PM (#6102100)

I'm not saying Haaland fouled him there, but 9 out of 10 times they call that a foul on the offensive player. Maybe a bit of justice since they didn't get the penalty right before and I wonder if that's part of why the ref let the play continue. I think there's a human bias of not wanting to give to many 50/50s to the same team.

I was actually commenting on the City penalty given.

On the Haaland goal I wouldn't say it's 90% on the offensive player there, but it certainly could easily have been called and would not have been a surprise. That said, they would virtually never call that much contact on the defense, so letting it go doesn't seem unfair. I thought there was no chance they would overturn it on VAR once it wasn't called on the field.

492. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 22, 2022 at 02:30 PM (#6102104)

Aside from the penalty United were the better team on the day, in London no less. They've played their best against top 6 other than City. Chelsea honestly hasn't looked great in the EPL all year, and not yet under Potter either.

I'm happy they didn't have Ronaldo on the bench. Takes the pressure off Ten Hag to put him in having the team shape suffer.

493. Spivey Posted: October 22, 2022 at 05:05 PM (#6102122)

Ten Hag has done a very good job and has phased out Maguire and Ronaldo. The guys there mostly look better than they've looked for a while and their young guys seem hungry and willing to "fight for the badge", as they say. I think he's up for the job.

494. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 23, 2022 at 01:38 PM (#6102184)

City won but none of the other top 6 did. EPL winner odds:

                 PRE-SEASON   CURRENT
City                57          80.25

Arsenal              2.5        11

Liverpool           26           3
Chelsea              5           2.75
Tottenham            6           1.25
United               2           1.25          

Field                1.5         0.5

495. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 23, 2022 at 02:07 PM (#6102185)

Top 4 odds. Newcastle is crashing the party now.

                 PRE-SEASON   CURRENT
City                96.5        99

Arsenal             37.5        77

Liverpool           87          58
Chelsea             56          53

Tottenham           59.5        44
United              30          39

Newcastle           8.5         22

Brighton            3            4
West Ham            5.5          2

Field              16.5          2

496. Spivey Posted: October 23, 2022 at 05:36 PM (#6102205)

Napoli with a 1-0 road win over Roma in a matchup of the 2 teams with the best xPoints in Serie A by a mile. Other teams are collecting points well but got to think Napoli should be the favorite right now.

497. The Marksist Posted: October 24, 2022 at 09:01 AM (#6102300)

Maybe Liverpool ain't all that.

*Cries in Jude Bellingham*

498. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 24, 2022 at 12:43 PM (#6102350)

Newcastle is currently 50/50 to be in the top 6 at the end of the year. Their most likely spot is still 7th.

499. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 24, 2022 at 05:50 PM (#6102420)

Slightly revised top 4 odds. People are a little less impressed by Chelsea and Tottenham than they were yesterday. These odds are very close to 538 with the notable exception of Brighton, which 538 still loves.

                 PRE-SEASON   CURRENT
City                96.5        99

Arsenal             37.5        81

Liverpool           87          60

Chelsea             56          47
United              30          44
Tottenham           59.5        40

Newcastle           8.5         21

Brighton            3            4
West Ham            5.5          2.5

Field              16.5          1.5

Relegation odds:

                 PRE-SEASON   CURRENT
Forest              41.5        64
Bournemouth         65          59

Wolves              15          37
Leeds               30          34

Southampton         24.5        25
Leicester            6.5        20
Everton             22          17

Brentford           24          11.5
Villa                4          11
Fulham              39           9.5
Palace              11.5         6.5

West Ham             3.5         2.8
Brighton            10           2.5
Newcastle            3           0.1

Top 6                0.25        0.1

500. Mefisto Posted: October 24, 2022 at 08:23 PM (#6102453)

Flip.

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