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Thursday, August 11, 2022

OT Soccer Thread - European Leages Return

The new season kicks off in Europe without a peep from the BBTF cognoscenti. Are the fans turned off by the stratospheric player salaries? Dismayed at increasing stratification in domestic leagues? Bored with the prospect of more meaningless Champions League group games? Gearing up for a World Cup boycott? Or, you know, just kind of tired in general. Whatever the reason, we can’t go without a soccer thread, surely!

The Marksist Posted: August 11, 2022 at 02:20 PM | 775 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off-topic, soccer

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   501. bestergonomicgamingchair.com Posted: October 25, 2022 at 12:17 AM (#6102486)
Flip
   502. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 25, 2022 at 02:45 PM (#6102541)
Potter's Chelsea has looked shaky in the EPL, but have been very good in their three CL games. Clinched top spot in the group now with a game to spare. (edit: just realized Zagreb could actually take top spot from them, though that is very unlikely.)
   503. Spivey Posted: October 25, 2022 at 04:16 PM (#6102556)
Starting to wonder *just* how bad Allegri has to do before Juventus bites the bullet.
   504. The Marksist Posted: October 25, 2022 at 04:17 PM (#6102558)
Is Benfica for real?
   505. jmurph Posted: October 25, 2022 at 04:54 PM (#6102570)
Starting to wonder *just* how bad Allegri has to do before Juventus bites the bullet.

I think this will do it. I don't have the time at the moment to look up all the details, but go back a few years to when they fired him the first time and it's all just a series of self owns, they deserve it.
   506. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 25, 2022 at 05:03 PM (#6102575)
Still a couple big ones next week in this half of the draw, which has been less interesting than the other half. Milan hosts Salzburg needing just a draw to advance, and Leipzig travels to Shakhtar also needing just a draw. Real Madrid will win the group with a home win against Celtic. If all that happens, which is fairly likely, then the only upset in this half of the draw will have been Benfica taking Juve's spot.

I guess there is still some drama as to whether PSG or Benfica will take the top spot in that group, and it depends a lot on whether PSG will bother to show up on the road against Juve, or if Juve will even bother. There is also a Europa spot on the line there.
   507. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 25, 2022 at 05:06 PM (#6102576)
Least surprising result of the day is Dortmund/City 0-0. This is what Pep does seemingly every year in the group stage. Pours it on in the first three games then coasts in the second half of games, doing just enough to win the group.
   508. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: October 26, 2022 at 12:18 AM (#6102651)
City absolutely dominated possession the whole game, but produced very, very little of any consequence, other than the penalty (Which was a stupid slide from Emre Can, but I don't think he actually made contact, and Mahrez just took a massive dive). On the other end Mokoko had a couple of golden opportunities, but the finishing was really poor.
   509. Spivey Posted: October 26, 2022 at 08:44 AM (#6102663)
Unai Emery to Villa. That's a hell of a get.

It's always hard to tell how much was undermining from players not playing/xenophobic nonsense vs. real, but the language barrier did seem to be a factor in his stint with Arsenal. But that squad and dressing room were clownshoes at the time. And he's clearly a great manager.
   510. The Marksist Posted: October 26, 2022 at 04:11 PM (#6102718)
Liverpool weathered a very rough first 30 minutes before snatching a goal against the run of play. Game has totally turned around since and now it's 3-0.

Meanwhile, Athleti is out as it stands and group D is looking tight if things finish this way.
   511. Spivey Posted: October 26, 2022 at 05:17 PM (#6102731)
Why did I choose to root for Tottenham?
   512. Mefisto Posted: October 26, 2022 at 08:14 PM (#6102745)
Do you really want folks here to suggest answers to that question?
   513. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 26, 2022 at 08:32 PM (#6102747)
4 head-to-heads decide advancement next week. Other than that there is minor drama about who wins the group and who gets Europa.
             ORIGINAL  AFTER R1  AFTER R2  AFTER R3  AFTER R4  CURRENT
Group A
Napoli           44        66        78        97       100       100
Liverpool        88        79        84        92        98       100
Ajax             49        49        37        11         2
Rangers          19         6         1 

Group B
Brugge           19        33        54        91       100       100
Porto            54        48        19        24        61       100
Atleti           75        89        74        50        34
Leverkusen       52        30        53        35         5

Group C    
Bayern           86        96        98        98       100       100
Inter            45        23        28        49        93       100
Barcelona        66        80        74        53         7
Pizen             3         1        <1

Group D
Tottenham        81        90        81        80        87        73
Sporting         33        62        82        73        44        68
Frankfurt        43        16        26        27        22        32
Marseille        43        32        11        20        47        27

Group E
Chelsea          88        79       69         81        95       100
Milan            74        78       82         73        66        84
Salzburg         30        28       33         36        33        16
Dinamo            8        15       16         10         6

Group F 
Real Madrid      94        97      >99        100       100       100
Leipzig          72        42       46         62        79        81
Shakhtar          9        24       28         25        21        19
Celtic           25        37       26         13

Group G
City             94        98      >99       100       100        100
Dortmund         61        74       74        96        97        100
Copenhagen        8         4        2         1         2
Sevilla          37        24       24         3         1

Group H
PSG              92        97       98        98       >99        100
Benfica          25        40       87        89        98        100
Juventus         82        62       15        13         2
Haifa             3         1       <1

Spurs advance with a draw and are in Europa with a loss I think. Pretty much the same for Leipig, Milan, and Sporting. Though this is now their lowest odds of advancement, it's still 73% and with a win they win the group too.

I was traveling all day so sadly missed all the action.
   514. jmurph Posted: October 27, 2022 at 07:45 AM (#6102773)
Absolutely wild ending in the Athletico Madrid defeat. Video here.
   515. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: October 27, 2022 at 08:11 AM (#6102775)
That is insanity. Not only the save but the rebound off the bar.
   516. Baldrick Posted: October 27, 2022 at 08:51 AM (#6102776)
The main thing I see there is about a dozen players that should all be given red cards for harassing the referee.
   517. Spivey Posted: October 27, 2022 at 09:43 AM (#6102781)
Conte will miss the match at Marseille. It will be interesting to see how Tottenham line up there.

   518. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: October 27, 2022 at 09:45 AM (#6102782)
The main thing I see there is about a dozen players that should all be given red cards for harassing the referee.

That, and it should never have been a penalty. Yeah, the ball glanced off the upper arms of 2 Leverkusen players. But neither were in an unnatural position, or looked intentional.
   519. The Marksist Posted: October 27, 2022 at 11:11 AM (#6102790)
Maybe the worst kind of penalty call. I hate that those are called more often than fouls after someone gets a shot off or even wrestling on corners and free kicks.
   520. Mefisto Posted: October 27, 2022 at 11:41 AM (#6102798)
Yeah, I can't imagine how VAR thought that was worthy of review or that the ref then gave it. Terrible call.
   521. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 27, 2022 at 01:37 PM (#6102826)
Couldn't agree more. It would have been silly enough to call it live--absolutely ridiculous to give it on VAR upon review.
   522. The Marksist Posted: October 27, 2022 at 02:26 PM (#6102838)
The one Cuadrado got called for was almost as bad.
   523. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 27, 2022 at 04:41 PM (#6102869)
Arsenal wasn't bad at all but they lost anyway. Hardest game of the group stage so it's hard to be too disappointed. They still have some work to do to win then group now.

Sheriff doesn't have a single shot against United through 84 minutes. As it stands, United still needs to beat Sociedad by 2 goals on the road to win the group, and that's not particularly likely.
   524. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 27, 2022 at 09:52 PM (#6102913)
Overall CL odds:
Revised CL overall odds:
          PRE-DRAW    CURRENT
city         26         33

bayern       12         13
psg          14         12
liverpool    14         11

real madrid   7          7.5
chelsea       4          6
napoli        0.4        5

tottenham     4          2.75
inter         2          2.25
benfica       0.4        1.75
dortmund      1          1.5
milan         1          1.25

leipzig       1          0.8
porto         0.25       0.6
brugge        0.05       0.4
sporting      0.15       0.3
marseille     0.2        0.2
frankfurt     0.2        0.2
salzburg      0.2        0.1
shakhtar      0.15       0.1

last 12       12         out (included Barca and Atleti)
   525. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 28, 2022 at 01:28 PM (#6102965)
Europa odds:
               TO ADVANCE              WINNER
           ORIGINAL  CURRENT    ORIGINAL  CURRENT
Group A
Arsenal       95       100        75        92
PSV           68       100        18         8
Bodo Glimt    22                   4         
Zurich        15                   3         

Group B
Rennes        74       100        38        58
Fenerbahce    63       100        35        42
Kyiv          43                  19              
AEK           20                   8        

Group C
Betis         87       100        34       100
Roma          93        76        59         
Ludogorets    16        24         5         
HJK            4                   2        

Group D
St Gilloise   43       100        19       100
Union Berlin  69        64        35          
Braga         63        36        32        
Malmo         25                  14         

Group E
Sociedad      80       100        29        81
United        91       100        64        19
Sheriff       14                   3        
Omonia        15                   4        


Group F
Lazio         78        57        50        52
Midtjylland   33        52        13         5
Sturm Graz    23        48        11        24
Feyenoord     66        43        26        19


Group G
Freiburg      68       100        39       100
Qarabag       21        84        10          
Nantes        48        16        21          
Olympiacos    63                  30          

Group H
Ferencvaros   24       100        14       100
Monaco        86        68        50               
Trabzonspor   42        21        17        
Red Star      48        11        19    

Something to play for in every group. Roma, Union/Braga, Monaco, and Lazio/Feyenoord still have a bit to do to advance. And at least two of those teams will not. Arsenal is trying to wrap up top spot, and United is trying to beat Sociedad by 2 goals.
   526. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: October 29, 2022 at 10:27 AM (#6103096)
Villa keeper Martinez took a knee to the head, and needed 5 minutes of treatment. And they let him stay on. What a joke.
   527. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: October 29, 2022 at 10:37 AM (#6103098)
5 minutes later, he dives for a ball. No contact or impact to the head at all, but he is down again. I am Jack's complete lack of surprise. Disgraceful that they didn't take him off immediately. If he had actually taken another blow, that could have been so so bad.
   528. SoSH U at work Posted: October 29, 2022 at 11:08 AM (#6103101)
I was shocked they let him stay on.
   529. bestergonomicgamingchair.com Posted: October 29, 2022 at 12:13 PM (#6103107)
You are?
Commitment to concussion protocols is a ####### joke.

Hell of a comeback from Spurs ... wish they'd play the whole match like they play the last 30 or so minutes.

Meanwhile, Dismemberment United is now in 4th ... blood money well spent, I suppose.
   530. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: October 29, 2022 at 12:28 PM (#6103108)
Imagine if Tottenham ever shows up to play the first half of a match.
   531. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: October 29, 2022 at 12:51 PM (#6103112)
The 10AM games were fantastic. Great performance by Brighton, they really deserved that result. And Newcastle just dominant in the second half. Almiron is playing as well as he ever has. Aston Villa look a mess though. Not sure what is going to turn for them to avoid at least being in the relegation fight.
   532. SoSH U at work Posted: October 29, 2022 at 12:55 PM (#6103113)
Meanwhile, Dismemberment United is now in 4th ... blood money well spent, I suppose.


The money has no doubt helped. Bruno, Trippier and Botman, in particular, have been fantastic additions.

But the improvement of the existing players under Howe (Almiron, Joelinton, Schar) has been just as big.
   533. Spivey Posted: October 29, 2022 at 01:10 PM (#6103115)
Tottenham Hotspur get the #### in four four ####### two #### it chuck it butterball football
   534. Spivey Posted: October 29, 2022 at 04:04 PM (#6103140)
I'm a huge fan of Liverpool's strategy this year of no midfield, just vibes. Makes for a lot of highly entertaining games.
   535. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 29, 2022 at 04:37 PM (#6103162)
This was quite the entertaining game. I only caught bits of it but it never disappointed. Liverpool with a compromised midfield against Leeds with their own ideas about how to play makes for exciting soccer.
   536. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 29, 2022 at 04:39 PM (#6103164)
With the results today Newcastle very much and Brighton to a much lesser extent are back in the top 4 conversation. Had Spurs not won at the death it would have been even more so.
   537. Spivey Posted: October 29, 2022 at 04:40 PM (#6103165)
Tyler Adams has been brilliant. And Summerville looked really good, that's a very clever finish taking it a half second early.
   538. Spivey Posted: October 29, 2022 at 04:44 PM (#6103168)
Liverpool's Top 4 odds I think need to really take a hit.

Brighton and Newcastle continue to look legit, and Liverpool look like a good team, but not one you should *expect* to make up the kind of points they need to make up on a few different good teams - there's not just one team they're chasing.
   539. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 29, 2022 at 04:47 PM (#6103172)
Current odds of winning the league have City, Arsenal, than no one. It's possible United are actually third most fancied at the moment, if you can believe that. (They are currently third by a hair in 538 and I think the same by betting odds as well).
   540. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: October 30, 2022 at 04:57 AM (#6103265)
Seems reasonable enough to me. Newcastle have looked really, really good, especially recently... wait. Wait. You mean that United?!?
   541. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 30, 2022 at 10:42 AM (#6103275)
Arsenal still dominating Forest, but having trouble getting good chances without Saka on the pitch.
   542. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 30, 2022 at 10:49 AM (#6103276)
Considering the opposition, it's been one of their weaker performances this year. They are deservedly ahead but aren't playing so well that a bit of bad luck and they could end up dropping points.
   543. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 30, 2022 at 10:59 AM (#6103278)
It started off looking like they were going to walk off with 4-5 goals, but I don't think they put a shot on target after Saka got hurt at about the 20 minute mark.
   544. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 30, 2022 at 11:08 AM (#6103282)
Sigh of relief.
   545. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 30, 2022 at 11:12 AM (#6103283)
Whatever Mik Arteta said at the half seems to have worked.
   546. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 30, 2022 at 12:28 PM (#6103289)
Union came from behind to get the winner on the last touch of the game, after having an earlier winner called off via VAR for a close offside. They still lead the Bundesliga.
   547. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 30, 2022 at 12:36 PM (#6103291)
Maguire and Ronaldo are both in for United. I wonder if that means they are resting players in preparation for the midweek game at Sociedad.

edit: maybe Varane is still hurt.
   548. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 30, 2022 at 02:11 PM (#6103299)
Not exactly a convincing performance by United, considering they were at home, but they did just enough to get the win anyway.

I guess more realistically they controlled the game fairly well until the last 15 minutes or so, but that last 15 minutes was rough.

I have to say I know players have to concentrate a lot on defending a lead late in a game like this and it takes a lot of focus, but so often when they get the ball on the break the focus gets lost (because they are no longer defending, and they have the lead) and they miss wide open passed on what should be really big break chances. It happened to United multiple times at the end of the game and I see it a lot from other teams too.

edit: infogol registers four shots from West Ham inside the box. Three were in the last 10 minutes of the game (including stoppage time). There were also multiple dangerous crosses that didn't lead to a shot during that spell.
   549. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 30, 2022 at 02:56 PM (#6103303)
EPL winner odds:
                 PRE-SEASON   CURRENT
City                57          83

Arsenal              2.5        11

United               2           2
Tottenham            6           1.2
Newcastle            0.5         1.1
Liverpool           26           0.8 
Chelsea              5           0.8

Field                1           0.1
   550. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 30, 2022 at 03:01 PM (#6103304)
EPL Top 4 odds
                PRE-SEASON   CURRENT
City                96.5        99

Arsenal             37.5        81

United              30          50
Liverpool           87          49
Tottenham           59.5        47

Chelsea             56          39

Newcastle           8.5         27

Brighton            3            6

Field              22            2
   551. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 30, 2022 at 04:04 PM (#6103308)
Relegation odds:
                 PRE-SEASON   CURRENT
Forest              41.5        66
Bournemouth         65          60

Wolves              15          38
Southampton         24.5        30

Leeds               30          21.5
Leicester            6.5        21.5
Everton             22          17.5
Villa                4          15
Brentford           24          12
Fulham              39           9.5

Palace              11.5         5
West Ham             3.5         2.5

Brighton            10           1.4

Top 6 + Newcastle    3.5         0.1
   552. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 30, 2022 at 04:55 PM (#6103311)
After last year, that 81% chance the Gunners make the top 4 feels like 8%. But still, if you'd told me Arsenal would be anywhere near top of the table pre-season I would have danced for hours.
   553. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 30, 2022 at 05:04 PM (#6103313)
The announcers in the game were calling Arsenal Top 4 "close to a foregone conclusion", which is a bit much even for me. They said Arsenal wouldn't admit it but their focus is now surely on winning the trophy rather than getting a top 4 spot. I'm guessing that's not quite accurate.

   554. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 30, 2022 at 07:29 PM (#6103326)
which is a bit much even for me. They said Arsenal wouldn't admit it but their focus is now surely on winning the trophy rather than getting a top 4 spot. I'm guessing that's not quite accurate.


Yeah, no ####. I mean, I'm more optimistic than I've been since the Wenger days, but there's a saying about counting your chickens that applies.
   555. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 30, 2022 at 07:30 PM (#6103327)
Though. I have to say. The fact that the Gunners are still the youngest team in the league and displaying this kind of form is pretty encouraging.
   556. Spivey Posted: October 31, 2022 at 10:36 AM (#6103365)
Arsenal have been good but they don't have any particularly impressive road performances or really any bad luck results in the league (Southampton is close, I guess).

I still think they're much closer to the chase pack in quality than to City.
   557. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 31, 2022 at 12:12 PM (#6103388)
Right, and that's reflected in the odds. You can look at 538 for example and see that Arsenal is still third there (though Liverpool's rating keeps falling), and significantly closer to Chelsea, Tottenham, and United than they are to City. On top of that, 538 is less bullish on City than betting odds, so betting odds thinks the difference is even larger between City and the rest.

Just a couple weeks ago, in betting odds Arsenal was considered only a hair better than the chasing teams, and significantly behind Liverpool. Now they are still definitely considered to be quite a bit behind Liverpool, but have probably opened up a small gap on the other three. That small gap could easily be reversed with a couple subpar performances.

edit: also, I believe betting odds still implies a small gap between Spurs/Chelsea and United.
   558. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 31, 2022 at 07:36 PM (#6103462)
The USA will be facing off against Wales in just 3 weeks now, the first game of the group. As previously noted but still as relevant as ever, the US is a small but significant favorite in the game (38% win, 31% loss), but have almost the same odds (47%) as Wales (45%) to advance from the group. Due to the group structure, where USA plays England second and Iran last, a draw in the first game is advantage Wales.

And Wales may soon be "Cymru" officially, for those keeping score.
   559. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 01, 2022 at 01:54 PM (#6103528)
At the moment, Atleti would finish fourth and not even make Europa.
   560. Spivey Posted: November 01, 2022 at 02:31 PM (#6103542)
Tottenham without Kulusevski, Richarlison, Romero, and Conte. At a hostile away ground and a pretty solid team. I'm reasonably worried about today.
   561. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 01, 2022 at 03:07 PM (#6103547)
I'm not the least bit sympathetic to Conte's red. The refs have to call the game and this wasn't one where there is even any argument they got it wrong. What do managers think they can see so clearly from the sideline at midfield?
   562. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 01, 2022 at 03:39 PM (#6103553)
That's it for Atleti. What a collapse in Europe this year. They are not tearing it up in La Liga either.

The announcers keep making excuses for Atleti, blaming the refs. Fact is though they've been crap this year and haven't deserved more than they've gotten. (And let's not forget they were even gifted a ghost penalty last week after the final whistle.)
   563. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 01, 2022 at 04:53 PM (#6103560)
That was one terrible half by Spurs.
   564. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 01, 2022 at 05:59 PM (#6103565)
Frankfurt came from behind to take out Sporting. What a collapse in the group by Sporting.

And Spurs survived! And win the group at the death, to boot. Very good second half.
   565. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 01, 2022 at 06:25 PM (#6103569)
Topping the group should help Spurs a lot. The pot 2 teams outside of Liverpool and Frankfurt (which they can't face in the next round) are likely to be: Inter, Dortmund, Milan, Leipzig, Benfica, Brugge. None are easy except Brugge, but all are readily winnable with two solid performances.

The group winners this year will be much higher quality on the whole.

Worth noting that after all that so far there are only 3 teams that are not from the top 4 leagues (plus PSG) that have made it so far, or are likely to make it barring an upset tomorrow. Porto, Benfica, and Brugge.
   566. Spivey Posted: November 01, 2022 at 06:26 PM (#6103570)
To dare is to do, but only in the second half
   567. bestergonomicgamingchair.com Posted: November 01, 2022 at 06:38 PM (#6103573)
I have NO idea what the Hell Spurs plans are for the first half of matches ...
But man ... that felt really, REALLY good.
I do SO adore Harry Kane, Goal Creator ... what a fantastic pass ... and watch Hojbjerg again, he doesn't EVER look up once he receives the pass ... YUP! The goal is still where I knew it was.
Damn.
   568. bestergonomicgamingchair.com Posted: November 01, 2022 at 06:42 PM (#6103574)
Also ... I came into the match loathing Ray Hudson ... and managed to remind myself that I actually hate him even MORE than that.
Strewth.
   569. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 01, 2022 at 07:05 PM (#6103578)
Marseille leaving themselves open at the back cost them a spot in Europa. Just reading online prize money for reaching the KOs is $10 million or so, and prize money for making the Europa playoffs is only $500,000. So at 20:1 pot odds yeah I guess you are committed to going for broke and hoping Hojbjerg puts it wide.
   570. Spivey Posted: November 01, 2022 at 09:18 PM (#6103615)
Marseille has a good squad, and had the better of the chances in the game. You go for knockouts there 100%, and now they can focus on finishing top 4. They've got 1 point in their last 4 matches in Ligue 1 and went from neck and neck with PSG to 5th.
   571. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 01, 2022 at 09:35 PM (#6103620)
Had Marseille made the KOs they would have been the second weakest team there after Brugge. Maybe you can put Frankfurt in the conversation. Still, it seems getting beat up in one round of KOs is pretty much equivalent to reaching the final of Europa, though admittedly not the quite the same as actually winning it). A lot easier too. They do need all the help they can get this year in France, where they are outsiders to reach the CL next year, so the days off should help them.

They had absolutely no answer for Spurs in the second half until they started throwing everyone forward after 80+ minutes. The two halves were night and day up until that point.
   572. Spivey Posted: November 01, 2022 at 09:46 PM (#6103627)
Didn't get mentioned here, but Son seemed reasonably hurt. Tottenham now without 3 of their top 4 attackers, their best defender, and one of their two starting midfielders?

Midseason WC is really kind of making this a worst of both worlds for both events, I feel like.

Despite being on the road, I think Liverpool should probably be slightly favored.
   573. The Marksist Posted: November 02, 2022 at 12:44 PM (#6103699)
Despite being on the road, I think Liverpool should probably be slightly favored.


Liverpool's odds right now in any match should just be: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
   574. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 02, 2022 at 01:14 PM (#6103704)
Weekend odds:

Spurs 31%, Liverpool 43%, Draw 26%. Backing out an adjustment for HFA, that means Liverpool are considered the very significantly better team this weekend.
Chelsea 37%, Arsenal 35%, Draw 28%. Backing out an adjustment for HFA, that means Arsenal are considered the slightly better team this weekend.
   575. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 02, 2022 at 03:11 PM (#6103716)
Well these early games today were a total bust.
   576. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 02, 2022 at 04:54 PM (#6103725)
PSG and to a lesser extent Benfica don't seem particularly interested in winning their group, which is pretty curious since there are very good teams waiting as group winners in the first KO round.

Milan is all but through now, but have to keep focus as Salzburg has looked dangerous in the first half.
   577. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 02, 2022 at 05:26 PM (#6103733)
In the final tally, there were very few upsets:

Group A: Napoli over Liverpool for the group win, based mostly on their opening day group game. Fairly minor.
Group B: Brugge swapped with Atleti first/fourth spots. The biggest upset of the group stage by far.
Group C: Inter over Barca for second in a very important but not actually that unlikely upset.
Group D: none
Group E: none
Group F: Shakhtar over Celtic for Europa spot. Very minor.
Group G: none
Group H: Benfica over Juve for second in an important and fairly major (by betting odds) upset. Writing was on the wall a bit for this one as 538 and some of our own pundits here predicted it coming in to the group stage.

Overall this was even more predictable than the betting odds projected. Which makes it oh so great that soon we will be moving to an even more predictable group stage format. I can't wait.

edit: Benfica is currently leading group H, so we may have an upset for group winner there as well. Here's to PSG finishing second then losing in the first round of the KOs. We can dream.
   578. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 02, 2022 at 05:49 PM (#6103736)
Benfica is beating Haifa 1-5. One more goal and it goes down to some crazy tiebreaker.

Points in head-to-head matches among the tied teams;
Goal difference in head-to-head matches among the tied teams;
Goals scored in head-to-head matches among the tied teams;
If more than two teams are tied, and after applying all head-to-head criteria above, a subset of teams are still tied, all head-to-head criteria above are reapplied exclusively to this subset of teams;
Goal difference in all group matches;
Goals scored in all group matches;
Away goals scored in all group matches;
Wins in all group matches;
Away wins in all group matches;
Disciplinary points (direct red card = 3 points; double yellow card = 3 points; single yellow card = 1 point);
UEFA club coefficient.


edit: I think Benfica would win the tie breaker on away goals scored in all group matches.
edit2: that's where they are now! 1-6 for Benfica, who are currently group winners in an unlikely fashion.

PSG has slowed the game way down. They don't seem to know that Benfica is now ahead of them. And I think that is it. PSG falls to second.
   579. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 02, 2022 at 06:44 PM (#6103744)
CL winner odds pre-draw. Group winners have an easier path, so would be slightly less fancied than as shown below all things being equal.
          PRE-DRAW    CURRENT
city         26         33

bayern       12         14
psg          14         10.5
liverpool    14         10

real madrid   7          7.5
chelsea       4          5.3
napoli        0.4        5
tottenham     4          4.5

benfica       0.4        2.2
inter         2          1.9
milan         1          1.8
dortmund      1          1.7

leipzig       1          1
porto         0.25       0.8
frankfurt     0.2        0.5
brugge        0.05       0.3


Odds have really only gone down for both Liverpool and PSG, teams that were supposed to win their groups and look a bit better than they actually did in the group stages.
   580. KronicFatigue Posted: November 02, 2022 at 10:03 PM (#6103837)
Since Chelsea can't draw Liverpool, I was really hoping PSG would win the group. Is it true they didn't know they needed to score again? Unreal.
   581. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 02, 2022 at 11:01 PM (#6103865)
Very likely, but my stream was delayed by at least two minutes, so there may have been only a minute or two between when Benfica got their last goal and the end of the PSG game. Benfica scored at 90+2. They also may not have even known Benfica held the final tiebreaker at that point.

That said, they really should have known all about the tie breakers, and should have started to sit up and take notice when Benfica went up 1-4 in the 73rd minute. And they really should have been worried when Benfica went up 1-5 in the 88th minute. The PSG game went into the 5th minute of stoppage time so unless the games were pretty far out of synch they had at least a couple minutes when they seemed to have no idea.

When Benfica went up 1-4 they had just scored three pretty quick goals and Haifa had to have been devastated, knowing their chance for Europa was gone. PSG would have had to assume Benfica would ramp up the pressure to try to get two more goals in 20 minutes, which under those circumstances would not seem that unlikely. But PSG slow played it anyway, generating no shots the rest of the game. I know Juventus is not an opponent to be taken lightly at home but they were acting like they had won the group that whole time (so long as they didn't concede).

edit: I guess on the other hand maybe they believed trying to score more was too risky anyway. Juve had outplayed them all day to that point, which continued until the final whistle. I didn't see the first PSG goal but the second was a great play (pass/run/shot) that could probably only be repeated once in 20 tries.
   582. sardonic Posted: November 03, 2022 at 11:27 AM (#6103922)
There was a similar situation in ManUtd's second to last Europa group game. After Ronaldo scored at 81 to make it 3-0, scoring one more goal would have meant that they only had to beat Real Sociedad 1-0 in the last group game to advance as group winners (their stated goal of avoiding playing a knockout match against a Champions League 3rd place dropout). However, they didn't appear to realize this or play with particular urgency from that point onward. They were bossing the game in general and did create a couple real chances though, so maybe they felt playing "normally" gave them a good enough shot to yield another goal.

As it stands, they will need to win while scoring at least 2 goals against Sociedad today.
   583. Spivey Posted: November 03, 2022 at 12:10 PM (#6103932)
Bayern's path is actually quite tough - because of the various restrictions on who can play who (3 German teams finished 2nd), they have a 57% chance of drawing either Liverpool or PSG now.

Link

PSG really did themselves no favors here. There's a 90% chance they draw one of the top 8 teams.
   584. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 03, 2022 at 01:26 PM (#6103945)
United had two big chances late that they didn't convert, and were unlucky not to get their fourth. It seemed like they were still trying pretty hard to score. I don't think PSG had even a single shot after the 70th minute, when Benfica first appeared to be in danger of catching them.

Benfica of course played it correctly. Once they had a lead by two goals there was zero to lose for them so they could play the last 30 minutes in all out attack hoping to get enough goals to make up the GD.

   585. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 03, 2022 at 01:37 PM (#6103947)
That linked table is very interesting. Liverpool and Bayern have few other possibilities, so have a very good chance of facing each other.

Bayern would probably have been better off finishing second, in retrospect. They could then face all other 7 group winners, with only a small chance of facing City.
   586. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 03, 2022 at 02:01 PM (#6103951)
Third place CL teams are not a bad group, but they ae also not as good as it looked like they might be earlier. Still there is quite a bit at stake to win these EL groups, maybe most importantly including a couple extra weeks off.

In order by betting odds:
Barca
----big gap----
Juve
Ajax
Sevilla
Leverkusen
Sporting
Salzburg
Shakhtar
   587. Spivey Posted: November 03, 2022 at 02:10 PM (#6103952)
Pique retiring midseason. Playing one last game this weekend. Kinda crazy.

Man must really love the club to walk away from the kind of money I'm sure he's getting paid.
   588. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 03, 2022 at 03:09 PM (#6103961)
Announcers think every tackle that comes anywhere near the ball is a "good tackle". Martinez got a deserved yellow there, and should have no complaints.

I know the announcers are seldom young guys, but do they really need to be 20 years out of date on these calls? Probably they are just playing to their audience.
   589. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 03, 2022 at 03:14 PM (#6103963)
Needing a goal, with nothing to lose really if they get scored against, United haven't managed a shot halfway through the 2nd half so far.
   590. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 03, 2022 at 03:29 PM (#6103965)
Still no shots in the second half for United. No danger either since very early in the second half. Now Maguire upfront, so should be fun.
   591. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 03, 2022 at 03:42 PM (#6103967)
I think in the end they had one second half shot. That was some lousy performance and they were lucky to even win the game at all.
   592. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 03, 2022 at 03:48 PM (#6103969)
Group F finished totally level on 8 points each. I may not have ever seen that before. I think then it just comes down to group GD, with no more head-to-head results relevant. That puts Feyenoord in as group winner and Lazio down to the Conference League.
   593. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 03, 2022 at 04:32 PM (#6103981)
Normally I would have been rather annoyed with Sociedad's time wasting in the second half, but United themselves so little urgency for the first 25 minutes of the second half, and after that they were so poor that it would have been bad form to blame any of it on Sociedad.
   594. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 03, 2022 at 05:30 PM (#6103991)
Roma was down at home and headed to the Conference League. Two second half goals and it looks like they'll be through to face a CL third place team.

Koln was down 0-2 at home to Nice, but have fought back to 2-2. If they go out at this stage they'd be the best Conference League group team to fail to advance. It will very likely be either Koln or their opponent Nice as the best team not to advance.

Best team in the Europa League not to advance would certainly have been Roma, but now that they are safe it will be either Union, if they lose their lead today, or probably Braga if they don't.

edit: oops forgot Lazio. They might be about even with Union, and better than Braga. Relegated to the Conference League.
   595. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 03, 2022 at 09:57 PM (#6104084)
Europa odds pre-draw (bye teams asterisked):
              PRE-DRAW    CURRENT
Barcelona                   16.5
Arsenal          14         16.5  *
United           11.5       12.5

Juventus                     6
Ajax                         5
Betis             4          5    *
Sociedad          3          5    *
Roma              6.5        4.75
Sevilla                      4.5
Freiburg          2          3.5  *
Leverkusen                   3
Sporting                     2.25
Salzburg                     2.25
PSV               2.5        2.25
Rennes            1.5        2
Monaco            1.5        1.75
Union Berlin      2          1.5
Shakhtar                     1.25
Feyenoord         2          1.25 *
Fenerbache        1          1.25 *
Saint Gilloise    1          1    *
Nantes                       0.5
Midtjylland                  0.5
Ferencvaros                  0.25 *
Once again the CL rejects look quite a bit stronger over all then the 2nd place Europa teams. This year we do have United and Roma as strong second place teams, but after that the next best is the Union/PSV/Rennes/Monaco level, which are not expected to be good enough to win Europa.
   596. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 03, 2022 at 10:48 PM (#6104120)
Spain has earned a fairly respectable point total for La Liga's performance in Europe despite only having one team reach the CL KOs, but they are well behind England and still a bit behind Germany this year.

ELO is not nearly as sanguine. La Liga has fallen behind the Bundesliga for the first time in years (whether or not you look at it on a top 18 or top 20 team basis apples to apples) and La Liga's current 1701 at clubelo might be the lowest it has been at the end of a calendar year for 25 years. The gap between the EPL and the next best league now matches the height of Spain's dominance for 3-4 years in the mid-2000s, and prior to that you have to go back to when Italy completely owned the soccer world back in the mid-1990s before you can find a league that was truly more dominant than the EPL right now.

There's still a long way to go this year, and Spain still has 6 of their 7 teams alive. They could still do plenty of damage.

There are 64 teams that made it to the KO stages in Europe. 48 of them are from the top 9 eligible leagues (if you include Turkey as one of the top 9, with Russia ineligible).
   597. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 04, 2022 at 08:18 AM (#6104190)
Is it me or is FIFA not helping themselves by making a statement about media not talking about off field issues? Such a bad look (on top of the bad look of having the tourney in Qatar to begin with).
   598. bestergonomicgamingchair.com Posted: November 04, 2022 at 09:26 AM (#6104192)
FIFA? Tone deaf???
Why, that's unpossible!
   599. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: November 04, 2022 at 10:31 AM (#6104207)
I've been thinking about this Arsenal club and I think there's some pretty strong evidence that their decision-makers did not expect to be anywhere near the position they're in right now. (I don't think anybody expected them to be top of the league after 11 weeks, but even being close is far more than most people expected.) The team's first string is genuinely top notch at this point, at least at the front and the back; Saka and Odegaard and Tomiyatsu and others could play with anybody. But they're thin, especially for a team that's trying to keep up with City while playing European football. I'd like to think that Arteta & co., if they really thought they were going to be in this position, would have done something about that earlier.

As it is, if they can make it to the WC break reasonably healthy and without completely blowing it (ie, somehow ending up with a draw against Wolves after a loss to Chelsea or something), they're going to have to make some decisions in the January transfer window. They need bodies. If Saka's injury had been more serious, they would have been left starting Nelson -- a ? if ever there was one -- and without anybody very good to spell him.

So: do they drop a bunch of money to bring in decent second stringers who can help them win? Does Arteta have permission to even do that? They're very young and they're spending less than any of the other big 6, way less than City, United, and Liverpool. Stan Kroenke is rich but he's not an Emerati Sheikh or coalition of billionaires like Fenway Sports. Does he really want to spend £60 million more on a club that nobody expected to be competing at this level until at least next year? Would that even be a good idea?

My relationship to football is much more like the average fan's relationship to baseball than the obsessive, stats-oriented kind of baseball fandom that I practiced for so long. If these were questions about a baseball team, I'd be more confident in answering them. As it is, I only know enough to ask them.
   600. Mefisto Posted: November 04, 2022 at 11:43 AM (#6104210)
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