Winning the CL is hard, and takes a lot of luck. Going far in the tournament is a success all on its own. Even reaching the final but finishing runner up would be a better than average result for City.

This is just to say that teams that pretend not to care who they have to face next, because to win the tournament they have to be able to beat everyone, are most likely being disingenuous. Going out in the round of 16 and losing in the final are very different.

Does he really want to spend £60 million more on a club that nobody expected to be competing at this level until at least next year? Would that even be a good idea?

Setting aside the chances of winning the league, of that 60m guarantees CL qualification, it would pay for itself.

I had a similar reaction to their depth and I thought it would be an issue with getting top 4 going into the year. I figured they would sign Bissouma, Tielemans, or someone else who could rotate with Partey and Xhaka. Only having Elneny and Sambi Lokonga there does not seem like enough if they have even average injury luck.

Defensively, they have lots of overlapping players to get to their depth. Tierney and Zinchenko are both good LBs (and I'm a little surprised we haven't seen more Zinchenko in MF). Tomiyasu is good at RB and White has filled in well there. Gabriel and Saliba have been excellent and White is a strong rotation option there, too. But by that calculation, White is the primary safety net for 3/4 first-choice defenders. That can't work for an entire EL and PL campaign. Holding has played more than he probably should. Cedric is fine, but certainly isn't good enough to play regularly for a team with aspiration of winning the league.

The attack is similar. Martinelli, Odegaard, and Saka behind Jesus is great. Nketiah as the second-choice #9 is maybe a stretch. Behind the other 3, the options are Smith Rowe, who has been hurt a lot, Vieira, who they invested a lot in this summer but seems to need more time to adapt and develop, and Nelson, who as you said, is a giant question mark.

I guess the question is whether they can add a MF, a reserve CB, and a versatile attacker for a reasonable fee in the winter and whether those players would fit into their plans for more than just the next 6-18 months. I suspect they will invest in at least some combination of reinforcements in those areas.

Setting aside the chances of winning the league, if that 60m guarantees CL qualification, it would pay for itself.

At absolute maximum, considering Arsenal's current league position, $60 million would be worth maybe 15% of a CL spot (e.g., 70% spending $0 and 85% spending $60 million, or something similar). If maximizing return it would have made much more sense to spend the $60 million in the summer than now, b/c they came into the season with odds of 37.5% chance to make the CL. That's the sweet spot for spending giving you an extra boost.

Splashing the cash could still be the smart investment, of course.

I forgot Kompany was coaching Burnley. The top 2 teams in the Championship, by virtually all measures, are playing right now. There's a decent chance both get promoted anyway, but a win today makes it that much easier for the winner.

Burnley looks like the better team and play soccer that can fit in the EPL, but they are being a bit overwhelmed by the physical 90s football of huge people in the box from Sheffield.

Sheffield is getting huge xG chances on literally every single corner. This is wild.

Burnley has kind of given up defensively. Though the 5th goal is clearly offside, and there is no VAR in the EFL. One or two of the other goals were very marginal as well but Sheffield has dominated the game this second half, there can be no big arguments with the result today.

This looks like a youth match where one team is an age group up. Sheffield is just so much bigger and stronger. This helps not just in the air, but with hold up play, press resistance, etc.

Leeds games are just so much fun. There’s not much risk of a 0-0 when you tune in there.

Could only keep one eye on Sheffield United but yeah except for a few moments here and there they bossed that game. Got the breaks on a couple marginal calls but were far better regardless and well-deserved winners. 538 had it as one of the worst drubbings you will see, with a corresponding massive effect on relative team rankings. Betting odds probably has the two teams close to even now to be promoted, with maybe Bunrley the smallest of edges still.

Leeds, Brighton, and Brentford are now all losing to the bottom teams in the league, in games all are strongly favored to win.

If I could make one change to soccer I would want officials to get MUCH more aggressive on time wasting. Not so much the dicking around delaying a throw or a goal kick but when the other team gets a free kick and the defender picks up the ball and walks away then tosses it aimlessly. If it’s not your teams free kick/throw and you touch the ball, bam, in the book.

I’m not talking about 50-50 situations but when it is clear just get him in the book.

Some finish by Greenwood for Leeds.

This has been an amazing game.

Agree 1000% with 611. Delaying tactics are such a drag on the fan experience and many could so easily be legislated right out of the game.

After all that, no upsets today--not even a draw. And yes, that Leeds game sure was something.

My brother's a Chelsea fan and I'm an Arsenal fan. Arsenal at Chelsea before the sun comes up in the Americas. We're supposed to Facetime. We'll see which one of us doesn't show up.

Gunners are an inch away from being up 1-0. Gabriel Jesus just grazed an amazing cross from Odegaard andit ended up wide.

Saka just got fouled hard as he was charging up the sideline. No whistle. Saka, understandably pissed, just laid the smack on the guy who fouled him and got a yellow card. That's the kind of #### I used to do when I played sports as a kid.

This is not the dirtiest match I've ever seen, but it's not the cleanest, either. A lot of hard challenges and cross words from both sides. Chelsea player whose name I can't spell just got booked for coming in very high on Martinelli and kicking the #### out of his foot.

Beautiful corner from Saka and Arsenal finally has the goal they've been on the verge of scoring all day.

Saka's corner was going in anyway. That last unnecessary touch by Gabriel created .7 xG from nothing.

edit: Arsenal was pretty lucky that the corner went through a crowd of Chelsea player's untouched, but it hasn;t been a lucky performance overall. If they had brought their finishing boots today they'd already be ahead by at least 2 goals anyway.

Chelsea look totally outclassed. Like a mid-table team hoping for a draw.

Chelsea player whose name I can't spell just got booked for coming in very high on Martinelli and kicking the #### out of his foot.

That's not really what happened there, Azpilicueta was there first and Martinelli is the one who had come charging in late, he basically did it to himself. Agree that it's been a little dirty, and Oliver is a pretty bad ref who seems to mentally flip a coin when deciding to call a foul or not.

Gallagher absolutely drags his man to the ground for the ?4th? card of the match.

God, the last few minutes of a one goal match are stressful. Chelsea has looked like scoring a few times since the 80th minute.

Chelsea has done pretty much nothing this game. I expected them to at least generate some sort of threat.

Fight!

Five yellows for Chelsea, but it feels like most of them were for pulling the man back, not dirty stuff. And the foul by Azpilicueta probably didn't deserve one.

And there's a guy in a Giants cap in the crowd? Don't see that every day.

To me the story has been just how anemic Chelsea has been. Especially in the second half chasing the game. They weren't that far off on a couple chances in the last 15 minutes, but they ended up with I think 1 shot after the 49th minute.

edit: yeah with some luck Chelsea could have gotten a goal somewhere, but that was not at all a close game. Arsenal was all over them in the midfield and Chelsea had no answer for it. They couldn't get string together passes or get anything flowing at all.

Arsenal's (betting) chance of winning the title might now be very close to their chance of dropping out of the top 4. Maybe.

538 has Arsenal at 22% to win the league, 87% to finish top 4. The first number still feels high to me, given how completely dominant City has been. But the truth is I was really worried they were somehow going to come away with 1 point from these last couple of matches and head into the WC break on a swoon. Instead, they're going to have to think about how to bolster their side for the long, hard stretch in the winter.

Yeah betting odds will be lower on Arsenal to win the title for sure. Maybe slightly lower on top 4 too.

edit: with United very unlikely to win now, Arsenal's top 4 odds have just gone up.

I've been very much not enjoying Ronaldo play these last few games, and it feels like the team has also suffered as well. Can't wait until he is gone.

Martinez, not under any pressure, gave the ball away at midfield with a terrible header in a situation where United was already stretched. That was 50% of the goal right there.

I've been very much not enjoying Ronaldo play these last few games, and it feels like the team has also suffered as well. Can't wait until he is gone.

It is nice when a player you've loathed for years finally starts showing his age.

With Chelsea losing and United likely losing, Newcastle is really turning it on in the top 4 chase.

Leverkusen/Union is at the half. Union is at the very top of the table and Leverkusen the very bottom, but 538 has them rated as even.

Should be a fun one! No. Dull as dishwater at least by the stats. No shots from either side within miles of the goal.

Dalot doesn't take the open shot because he sees Ronaldo in the middle, and proceeds to pass it to no one. Icing on the cake was that Ronaldo was in an offside position anyway (inexcusably, on that play).

Relegation odds:

                 PRE-SEASON   CURRENT
Forest              41.5        68.5
Bournemouth         65          65.5

Wolves              15          40.5
Southampton         24.5        29.5
Everton             22          24

Leeds               30          17.5
Leicester            6.5        13.5
Brentford           24          12
Villa                4          11.5
Fulham              39           9

West Ham             3.5         4.5
Palace              11.5         3.4

Brighton            10           0.5

Top 6 + Newcastle    3.5         0.1

Tottenham continuing their tradition of playing well against Liverpool, but losing anyways.

This has been a great game. Probably among the best matches Tottenham's played all year. Would be pretty disappointing to lose this.

Tottenham has had Liverpool on the ropes pretty much the entire second half. Wasn't sure they had this in them tbh.

It's crazy how much better Spurs play with Kulusevski.

One of the very few times this season the Spurs performance actually merited a better result than they got.

If you can't bother to show up for at least 60 minutes a game, you don't get to ##### about the result (speaking of them, not you, Biff).
And right now, for whatever the reason, Spurs can't be arsed to play more than the second 45, so ...

First half was pretty even this game though. Especially before Dier’s mistake.

EPL winner odds:

                 PRE-SEASON   CURRENT
City                57          79.5

Arsenal              2.5        16

Newcastle            0.5         1.5
Liverpool           26           1
United               2           0.75
Tottenham            6           0.75
Chelsea              5           0.4

Field                1           0.1

EPL Top 4 odds. Newcastle is now right in the mix.

                PRE-SEASON   CURRENT
City                96.5        99

Arsenal             37.5        87

Liverpool           87          57

United              30          42
Tottenham           59.5        39
Newcastle           8.5         35.5
Chelsea             56          30

Brighton            3            7.5

Field              22            3

I thought Spurs had 2 pretty good penalty calls (on Thiago for a high boot and A-A for a push in the back), but didn't get either.

Anybody else surprised to see how far Anthony Taylor set the wall for free kicks? Definitely more than 10 yards.

Anybody else surprised to see how far Anthony Taylor set the wall for free kicks? Definitely more than 10 yards.

Was he reffing the United game or Liverpool/Spurs? The wall on the Villa goal seemed further than 10 yards.

Considering how much the players yell bloody murder about everything else, I'm a bit surprised that there are so few complaints about the required wall distance. And this applies in either direction--too short or too far. There was that Spurs game a couple weeks ago where I swear the wall looked before the kick like it could not have been more than 8 yards away, and sure enough Son kicked it straight into the wall chest high. Not a peep by anyone on Spurs either.

United. The United players did complain before Digne scored, but to no avail. Then, to be fair, he did it again to United's benefit later in the game but Ronaldo hit it into the wall anyway. Just odd because I usually think the refs don't mark off the distance correctly by making it too short.

United drew Barca in the Europa League.

Two marquee matchups in the CL: Bayern are significant favorites over PSG to advance, and Liverpool are small favorites over Real Madrid. The only other matchup considered close is Inter/Porto.

Chelsea, Tottenham, Benfica, and Napoli are all pretty big favorites, and City is a vary big favorite.

edit: since teams rated 2-5 are facing off against each other, almost all the other teams odds went up slightly.

So happy with the Milan draw. Winnable but also a storied European club I don’t remember Tottenham playing recently.

CL Odds:

        PRE-GROUP   PRE-KO DRAW   CURRENT
city         26         33          35.5

bayern       12         14          11.5
psg          14         10.5         9.5
liverpool    14         10           9.5

real madrid   7          7.5         6.5
napoli        0.4        5           6.5
chelsea       4          5.3         5.3
tottenham     4          4.5         4.5

benfica       0.4        2.2         3.2
inter         2          1.9         2.5
milan         1          1.8         1.8
dortmund      1          1.7         1.5

porto         0.25       0.8         1
leipzig       1          1           0.6
frankfurt     0.2        0.5         0.4
brugge        0.05       0.3         0.3

Leipzig-City
Brugge-Benfica
Liverpool-Real Madrid
Milan-Tottenham
Frankfurt-Napoli
Dortmund-Chelsea
Inter-Porto
PSG-Bayern

Couple of genuinely huge ties in there. Two of Liverpool, Real, PSG and Bayern will be out in the round of 16. If I'm City I'm over the (blue) moon right now. A very winnable tie with Leipzig and a pretty good chance that your quarterfinal opponent won't be significantly better.

Ah yes - the Gattuso match (2010-11 season). Still, excited by the draw.

Chelsea, Tottenham, Benfica, and Napoli are all pretty big favorites, and City is a vary big favorite.

If this doesn't end up with a Bayern-City showdown I am going to be extremely let down.

Liverpool is up for sale, according to Twitter.

(As a Red Sox fan, I don't know whether to be worried about this or happy or something else?)

For Mefisto... MUFC's reddit page thinks it was 13.4 yards. Whatever it was, it was pretty clearly well over 10 by at least 2 yards, which I would view as unacceptable at this level. I think anything over a yard short or long probably should almost never happen, and this way beyond that.

Interesting, though not the most unbiased source. They do admit United got the benefit of a "long wall" for their kick too, but they stupidly let Ronaldo take the kick and, well, ....

Thanks.

Liverpool has played a pretty hard schedule so far. Their remaining games to round out the first half are against (in rough order of quality): chelsea, villa, leicester, brentford, southampton, and wolves. While a loss to Spurs would have been a blow, they would still have been in the thick of the top 4 race. As it is, they probably have a better shot than anyone except City and Arsenal. The problem isn't that they already are out of the top 4 race, it's that they are in the top 4 race.

Easiest schedule to round out the first half is by far United, who have: palace, leeds, wolves, fulham, bournemouth, and forest. Chelsea, City, and Arsenal all have fairly hard schedules. Spurs and Newcastle probably average.

Early CL matchup odds, in order of most competitive:

Liverpool    52    48       Real Madrid
Inter        53    47       Porto
Bayern       56    44       PSG
Tottenham    61    39       Milan
Chelsea      64    36       Dortmund
Napoli       70    30       Frankfurt
Benfica      74    26       Brugge
City         84    16       Leipzig

Early EL playoff round matchup odds, in order of most competitive:

Leverkusen  52   48     Monaco
Sevilla     52   48     PSV
Barcelona   57   43     United
Rennes      60   40     Shakhtar
Roma        63   37     Salzburg
Ajax        65   35     Union
Sporting    74   26     Midtjylland
Juventus    78   22     Nantes

CL teams are favored in all but two matchups.

For those keeping score, for the group stage betting odds did slightly better than 538, mostly because 538 likes teams from outside the big 4 much more than betting odds does. Betting odds did slightly better on Europa. Both CL and EL probably were within the margin of error.

Giroud scored a fantastic goal this weekend, a little bit like Haaland's goal. Apparently some people (according to Gab/Juls show anyway) are noting that Haaland's play was uncoordinated while Giroud's was smooth as silk, and attributing some meaning to this to the respective players. I love Giroud but this undersells Haaland massively. The ball to Haaland was at a more difficult angle, further in front of him, and at least a foot higher, possibly two feet higher. It was much, much harder ball to reach and there might not be a single other player alive that could have gotten to it. The Giroud play was absolutely gorgeous but not on the same level of difficulty.

As a Red Sox fan, I don't know whether to be worried about this or happy or something else?

Tangentially related: did Chelsea end up getting sold to that consortium that owns the Dodgers?

City will win the EPL this year in all likelihood, but at least we have Arsenal to keep things interesting for a while.

Dortmund lost again today, so now the closest chasing team is being given just 2% to win the Bundesliga. Bayern is at 94% already.

Napoli and Barcelona are now pretty big favorites to win their respective leagues, but those races are far from over.

The less said about Ligue 1 the better.

Arsenal, Tottenham, Chelsea, and West Ham are all out of the EFL cup. That reduces the teams that can realistically win the EFL by close to half.

Liverpool and Newcastle survive on penalties.

City and Brighton through at the expense of two of the teams above.

United plays tomorrow.

I'm not a fan of the League Cup in general (leave the Premier League teams out so someone else can win it maybe?) but I do like seeing the random youth squads teams put out. Fun to get a look at some academy kids!

There's an article of minor interest on ESPN showing some numbers about how the game has become more possession and high-quality shot oriented over the last 50+ years, by looking at some WC teams.

It seems like we've seen the same trend across the sports world--a better knowledge statistically of what provides an advantage, in particular efficiency in one form or another, being applied more consistently across the board.

I've mentioned it here before but one of the annoying things as a fan is seeing a team pass up the chance for a shot on the break to pull it back and set their offense, while letting the other team set their defense. This greatly reduces the chance of a goal on the offensive possession, but at the same time it's apparently what the coaches want. The advantage must be that setting your own offensive structure allows your own defense to be in place once the ball gets turned over, and reduces variance overall which is probably most helpful for the teams that are favored. ManCity is the probably the most paradigmatic of this. They want to reduce variability as much as possible as that favors them as the favorite in almost every game. Sometimes they do this to a fault, as being overly patient and reducing the number of possessions effectively shortens the game. With fewer possessions on either side there ends up being more chance of an upset, and we've seen City succumb to this on occasion.

I still think coaches are in general too risk averse. Soccer is especially interesting in that the chance of scoring on a controlled possession, 10v10, is way, way lower than the chance of scoring on a 5v5. To me the most fun teams, and the ones that maximize their talent, are the ones that are ruthless on the break and defend with 10. Spurs at their best in recent years are like this, and United the first few months under OGS. Atleti at their prime were great at it too, though they defended a bit too deep at times for my tastes for real enjoyment as a neutral. It's true that teams that are very overmatched also do this but they are a lot less entertaining to watch as their defense is usually just hanging on with luck, if at all, and their breaks at the other end generally ineffective. Of course, occasionally they get lucky.

Pep's City to me play often a little bit below their full potential because they almost always attack 10 v 10 and more often than you would like have to defend with less. That's partly a result of being the better team but also partly because Pep is inherently conservative in his approach to offensive possessions.

That's partly a result of being the better team but also partly because Pep is inherently conservative in his approach to offensive possessions.

I'll grant that you know more about this than me, but I sometimes think Guardiola gets a bad rap on this. He gets lumped in with the tiki-taka Spanish style manager -- but if he ever was that, at City he's certainly embraced the high press and aggressive football that Bosque and his ilk never would have tolerated.

Honestly, I view this as less of a problem in possession-oriented games like football and basketball. Baseball really has become a sort of press-a-button, three-true-outcomes kind of game that is much less fun than either sillyball or 80s-style turfball was. But part of the fun of football and basketball is the skill of passing and possession, so it doesn't bother me that much.*

*In some measure. I found tiki taka deeply annoying, in part because of how effective it was.

City v Liverpool in the EFL cup right after the world cup. Should be a ####### mess. None of the other favorites are against each other.

Liverpool draw Real Madrid and Man City in a week. That won't help the sale price John Henry.

Anyone suspect Liverpool might be facing some fallow years due to their age and contracts (or having to open the wallet to beef up the squad) and Henry is exiting ahead of the drop?

Anyone suspect Liverpool might be facing some fallow years due to their age and contracts (or having to open the wallet to beef up the squad) and Henry is exiting ahead of the drop?


For sure. I think the writing was on the wall about that 2-3 years ago. But the squad was so good that you just have to roll with it, and they won the league and CL and could have easily won another league or two. Klopp at least sounds interested in sticking around after this core has fully aged out, which has to be appealing.

Pep's City to me play often a little bit below their full potential because they almost always attack 10 v 10 and more often than you would like have to defend with less. That's partly a result of being the better team but also partly because Pep is inherently conservative in his approach to offensive possessions.

I find that Pep more than most managers molds his style to his team. It's very easy to be conservative with respect to possessions when you have players like KDB, Haaland, and Bernardo Silva who are hyper efficient at converting opportunities. As much as I like Gabriel Jesus as a player, this is why he was not a good fit in a central attacking role for this team... he gives himself opportunities but doesn't always create them. With the KDB/Haaland/Silva, they can strike rarely, but effectively.

To be honest, Kevin De Bruyne is one of the most amazing players to watch in the world right now. Probably the best player with respect to passing in the game.. everything thing he does is remarkably clinical, which allows for City to pick and choose their opportunities because it is rare that they don't realize scoring opportunities out of potential ones.

Anyone suspect Liverpool might be facing some fallow years due to their age and contracts (or having to open the wallet to beef up the squad) and Henry is exiting ahead of the drop?

I think that Liverpool planned to turn their squad over a bit more proactively, funding some purchases with a sale of one or more of Mane, Firmino, Salah. The pandemic made that basically impossible, but winning the league is decent booby prize so I doubt anyone is complaining. Now that they have (sort of) turned over the attack, the midfield is about to be a real problem. Not sure there's a quick fix there.

My wild, information-less guess is that FSG isn't committed to getting out now, but wouldn't mind taking 10X money and going to play a different game. Even if they actually want out, I'd be surprised if missing the CL this year knocks much off the asking price anyway. But, again, I have no information, so I'm probably wrong!

To be honest, Kevin De Bruyne is one of the most amazing players to watch in the world right now. Probably the best player with respect to passing in the game.. everything thing he does is remarkably clinical, which allows for City to pick and choose their opportunities because it is rare that they don't realize scoring opportunities out of potential ones.

All true. Still, regardless of whether your attack is the very best in the world 10 v 10, which City's very probably is, you lose hihg-quality opportunities by not attacking as often 5 v 5 and pulling it back into 10 v 10. Whether you offset that with the gain of controlling the possessions and the clock and setting your own positioning is the question.

A philosophy that took it way too far in the other direction was Bielsa, who seemingly believed that every single time his team got the ball the only proper action was immediate all out attack to take advantage of the other team not being fully prepared yet to defend. In a majority of cases the other team would collect the ball (this is soccer, after all, and goals are scarce) and rip right through his own team that was woefully unprepared for giving the ball back right away. That's certainly a recipe for mediocrity in the EPL, though it was fun to watch.

There was a similar article about Leeds, I want to say in the Athletic, about how pressing is a higher variance but also higher expected value strategy in game, and that players who can play in that system are also cheaper than possession oriented players. Basically positioning Leeds's tactics as the Moneyball of the EPL, at least in the current meta.

(It's been ages since I've posted -- the last thing I remember posting about was Jurgen Klinsmann leaving Landon Donovan off of the 2014 US World Cup squad in favor of *checks notes* Julian Green, but I've been following the thread still ever since!)

Klinsmann is always good for a few snide comments (at least from me) around here. Haven't heard much about Julian Green in a long time!

Dortmund is going out with a major whimper prior to the WC. Another loss and now even top 4 is looking a little bit at risk, as they have fallen to 7th in the Bundesliga.

Chelsea is going through their own struggles, but it's not too surprising they are still favored.

That was an appallingly bad non-call on the Spurs' goal.

The Dejan Kulusevski team!

No real chances either way in this Newcastle/Chelsea game. Newcastle is controlling the tempo and area though. Their press and compactness in the middle of the field is really preventing Chelsea from getting a foothold in this match. Newcastle looks much quicker and more proactive.

City had one of those games today where (if you only saw this one game) you might wonder how Pep's strategy could possibly be optimal for a team with far superior talent. Despite never leading, and being behind half the game to boot, they only managed under 2 xG at home against a team in the bottom half of the table. Alone that wouldn't be so bad, but on top of that their offensive strategy left them wide open in the back repeatedly.

The xG chart shows the 10v10 on attack, 4v4 on defense, really well. City had tons of shots, but most from outside the box and very few quality chances. None at all from within 10 yards of goal. Brentford only had 10 or so shots, but 6 were big chances from inside the box.

Obviously this game was an aberration for City. Not so much an aberration on the offensive end where we've seen them win time and again with this amount of offense. It's that despite all their ball control at the offensive end they were a sieve today at the back. There is no advantage to playing this style offensively if it results in them giving up high quality counters repeatedly. We've City at their best give up absolutely nothing on the counter for stretches of games at a time, so it's clearly not merely a playing style thing. That said, sometimes I feel like it's kind of a knife edge style. When everything is working very well it's virtually unbeatable. When a few things are off it seems wildly suboptimal.

No doubt part of it is missing Kyle Walker, but if so that might just reinforce the point that the style is only near optimal if all the pieces are aligned. Keeping everyone healthy, motivated, and playing well is very difficult to do consistently in the EPL, and on days like today at least it's easy to imagine a more robust style would have been better.

Potter hasn't really been able to get this team to score goals either. I think their attackers are mostly skilled players rather than proven goal scorers, and man, like Liverpool their midfield has taken a serious drop. Kante seems like he's maybe done at the World Class level, and Jorginho I think definitely is.

The EPL is so helter skelter almost every game now since even the lower level teams are pressing and have money to have good talent, it's hard to win without legs in midfield. And I should know, because I watched Tottenham try for like 3 or 4 years.

Edit: Kind of wild, but before today, Understand has Chelsea's xGD as -4. That's so, so bad for a team with the talent and talented managers they have.

The challenges the ref has let go in the last 1-2 minutes of this Newcastle game are frankly astonishing.

Some of the worst refereeing I have seen in a long time. Been horrendous all match long. Not sure where they pulled 7 minutes of added time from either.

Chelsea didn't deserve anything from this game. They did absolutely nothing for the first 70 minutes of the game. They were completely suffocated. The weird thing is, once they were down, suddenly they found the ability to play with Newcastle. Just bizarre.

Definitely agree with the first paragraph of 684. I can't figure out what Gallagher adds to the team at all. Maybe it's the midfield problem, but Chelsea just look disjointed.

I'm not going to say they're "done", but I think Chelsea are more likely to miss Europe than play in the CL at this point.

Chelsea have performed below expectation in almost every EPL game this year. Two of their three or four decent games were actually the first two games of the season. Even in most of their wins they have not been very good, whether under Tuchel or Potter.

538 still ranks them as the 4th best team in the EPL, slightly ahead of Newcastle, United, Spurs, and Brighton (who are all very close to one another, in that order). But that is almost entirely on the back of their performance in the CL, where they have been very good since the opening round loss to Zagreb. Without the benefit of those wins they'd be a distant eight behind Brighton.

Betting odds very likely still has them as projected to be better than Newcastle and certainly Brighton going forward. I wouldn't be surprised though if they were now effectively rated 6th best.

Potter can't seem to decide what his best lineup is. Tuchel thought he knew, but apparently didn't. They have lots of options but maybe those options just don't fit well together.

I know it's just Wolves, who have not been much this year, but it is an away game and Arsenal are looking very good again. With City losing too it's finally time for me to start believing that Arsenal actually has a chance to win the league. Still a bit unlikely but now no longer longshots.

The missed EPL games, including City at Arsenal, have not yet been rescheduled. If an early open date can't be found it's possible Arsenal and City won't face off until late in the season, at which point they would have to play twice. Arsenal at City is in late April.

690 - I think that’s long been a feature of how Chelsea builds itself. One of the risks of just spending Willy-nilly is you get a bunch of guys but no idea if it’s actually going to fit. You wind up with enough talent that it’s imposssible to be genuinely bad but you also open yourself up if things aren’t clicking. It’s the old NFL theory that if you have 2 good quarterbacks you don’t have a quarterback because you have a controversy.

Just an FYI I have a note to myself to set up a new thread on Monday morning for the World Cup.

I wasn't able to watch the match all the way through, but I did get to look in on Arsenal. It's probably just a function of when I poked my head in the room, but they actually didn't look so hot to me. I guess it's a road match, but this is one of the 2-3 worst teams in the league. I guess the Gunners came away with the points, but I felt a little icky about the game.

Also, WT actual F happened to City today? Brentford? Not exactly the result I expected.

Side note: the goal differential, which has favored City hugely over Arsenal all season and has been the source of my certainty that the Gunners weren't going to win the league, has narrowed to 4.

It wasn't the prettiest game, but the results speak for themselves. They held Wolves to virtually no open looks on the road. xG 0.5 to 2.2, with half of that Wolves total coming when they were down 0-2 in the last 15 minutes. Also, Wolves are in a bad spot in the table, but they are probably not appreciably worse than a lot of other teams, if they are worse at all, like Fulham, Southampton, and Everton, and they are probably significantly better than at least Bournemouth and Forest.

Games on the EPL on the road aren't supposed to be easy. 538 had it as a very positive result for Arsenal.

Regarding the City game, and others, I wonder if the World Cup is a factor. Players going there don't want to get injured like James Maddison did today.

Say what you will about Leeds, their matches are not boring.

696 - Yeah they are my default game to watch every week. They aren't dull. Honestly I wish Everton would play like that. If you're going to be down the bottom of the league at least open things up and have some fun along the way.

Fulham didn't deserve to lose that game, but man that was fun.

Garnacho is so fast. His speed got United the winner in a game they looked quite shaky in, at least in the second half.

I couldn't watch that much of the game today, but the difference between this one, which United were somewhat lucky to win, and the Arsenal one yesterday, which Arsenal were not the least bit lucky to win (both away games against similarly rated teams in the bottom tier) is that United gave up a lot of good chances today whereas Arsenal gave up very few, and almost none until they were up 0-2. 538 rated this as a neutral game for United and yesterday as a positive game for Arsenal.

flop