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Wednesday, June 02, 2021

OT Soccer Thread - In Which Euro 2020 Is Played in 2021

With the club season done it’s on to what is going to be a more normal summer than last year.  Bunch of stuff that was supposed to get played last year, bunch of stuff that was supposed to be played this year moves to next year.

Euro 2020 - June 11 - July 11
Gold Cup - July 10 - August 1
Copa America 2020 - June 13 - July 10 - due to COVID issues in host Argentina the tournament has been moved to a safer location…Brazil.  Presumably the next option is an infectious disease ward of a hospital.
2020 Olympics Men - July 22 - August 7
2020 Olympics Women - July 21 - August 6
CONCACAF Nations League Semi-Final and Final - June 3 and June 6
CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying - June 12 and June 15 - Winners advance to the Octagon, the Hexagon is dead, long live the Hexagon.
2021-22 Champions League - June 22 Preliminary Round, August 26 Group Stage Draw
2021-22 Europa League - Third Qualifying Round August 5, schedule is weird, I can’t find details of the previous two rounds but presumably on a similar schedule to the Champions League
2021-22 Europa Conference - First Qualifying Round July 8
2021 Women’s Euros - Postponed to 2022 (I’ll defer to others on the women’s game as I don’t follow closely enough to know what other big tournaments there are)

Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: June 02, 2021 at 08:55 AM | 833 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off topic, soccer

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   101. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 13, 2021 at 10:06 AM (#6023979)
Interesting conversation on zonal marking twitter about playing Trippier out of position primarily for set piece taking ability. It seems like a very weak middle ground approach to me.

On one extreme you play (and of course, take to the Euros in the first place) set piece Jesus and play Shaw or Chilwell at left back, getting even better set pieces and better left back play, but sacrificing a bit in the midfield. On the other extreme you play Shaw or Chilwell at left back, and play Trippier on the right instead of Walker. either seems better than this.

Englad has lots of good set piece takers. Maybe none quite as good as good as Trippier (barring JWP, who's even better of course), but plenty good enough not to play Trippier out of position just to get him in the lineup, while at the same time sacrificing a position of strength.

Trippier's throw-in to set up the Foden chance was really superb, but he hasn't done much else of note, and his free kick hit the wall.
   102. Richard Posted: June 13, 2021 at 10:15 AM (#6023981)
Superb work from Phillips to set up Sterling.
   103. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 13, 2021 at 10:16 AM (#6023982)
Really pretty goal started from a pass out of the back from I think Walker (or was it Stones...), to Phillips to Sterling. Phillips and Sterling have both been very good today.
   104. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 13, 2021 at 10:19 AM (#6023984)
Arg. Now Kane missed a fantastic chance and collided with the post. Looks like his shoulder maybe. edit: looks fine thankfully.
   105. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 13, 2021 at 10:54 AM (#6023986)
That last 20 minutes were immensely boring, in my opinion. Virtually no shots by either team, and no real chances. Yeah, good on England for shutting it down with the lead, but with stakes so low it really doesn't even matter that much if they were to win or have to settle for a draw, so there wasn't even any tension. 20 minutes of basically nothing.
   106. Richard Posted: June 13, 2021 at 11:33 AM (#6023988)
England had never won their first game in the Euros, and had thrown the lead away 6 times in the first game. A win was definitely worth something to them, particularly against the team that beat them in the WC 3 years ago.

A decent start. Long way to go though.
   107. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 13, 2021 at 12:25 PM (#6023991)
England was given a 98% chance to advance out of the group prior to the game. Winning the group won't necessarily increase their chances in the KOs either, because winner takes on second in Group F (France/Germany/Portugal almost assuredly), while 2nd in the group likely we have an easier round of 16 game (probably Sweden/Poland). It's possible that

So winning the game is nice but I would have actually preferred a better performance and an unlucky draw. Mostly I was just bored at the end due to the low stakes and lack of action.
   108. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 13, 2021 at 12:37 PM (#6023993)
Perception of Croatia is an interesting case over the last few years. Since independence in the early 90s they have been a very quality team, hovering just below the top European nations, and their 2018 World Cup squad arguably wasn't any better than their average team over the prior 25 years. They then went a great run and won some games where they might have been second best, and all of a sudden they were considered to be world beaters. So, underrated for years and then overrated.

This current incarnation of Croatia, aged from the WC 3 years ago, might be about as bad as they have been over the last 30 years now since independence. They are still a decent team, but not on England's level.
   109. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 13, 2021 at 04:38 PM (#6024015)
Netherlands dominated for 75 minutes and deservedly led 2-0. Couple quick goals by Ukraine for a quite unexpected comeback. Both sides have been playing an open game though, so it's at least comprehensible.
   110. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 13, 2021 at 07:40 PM (#6024037)
More than halfway through the first round of games. When the tournament started, there were only 4 teams that had much below a 50/50 shot at advancing: Finland, North Macedonia, Slovakia, and Hungary. With Finland winning, now there are only 3 teams that are currently longshots to advance. The loser of Scotland/CzechRepublic will become the 4th such team again, and if they draw they both will likely become longshots, so expect them both to play for the win.
   111. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: June 14, 2021 at 10:11 AM (#6024092)
Well, call off the Goal of the Tournament contest, that's been answered. Patrick Schick lobs the Scottish keeper from just inside the halfway line on the sprint. He had very little margin for error and he nailed it.
   112. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 14, 2021 at 10:13 AM (#6024094)
Scotland has probably been the slightly better team today, but down 0-2 their tournament is over unless they beat England or Croatia. Croatia will likely be highly motivated to get at least a draw in that final group game, so it's basically over for Scotland already, barring a miracle.
   113. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 14, 2021 at 10:28 AM (#6024096)
Unless Scotland can get a couple goals here today, 3rd place in groups B, C, and D are all likely to have at least 3 points. Have to think the same is true for group F. That means a team in all likelihood needs a win and OK GD (at least around 0 or -1, most likely) or 3 draws to advance.

B just needs a win by Russia at home over Finland. C just needs Ukraine to beat North Macedonia, D just needs Croatia to beat Scotland or Czech Republic, and F just needs the teams to beat up on Hungary. Lots of other ways it can happen too.

Basically, draws aren't really helpful unless they are against teams that are top in the group. Wales got an undeserved draw but it probably won't end up helping them advance much. It could, but it's not particularly likely. Likewise, even 2 goals here won't really help Scotland that much--they need 3.
   114. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 14, 2021 at 10:44 AM (#6024102)
At this point Scotland have had a lot of very good chances. No goals though. It will be a real shame if they go out, as is likely, largely as a result of the game today.
   115. KronicFatigue Posted: June 14, 2021 at 10:59 AM (#6024105)
I mean I guess. In that case they might as well just go to 32 teams and have only top two in each group advance. Even more fun for even more mediocre teams, and at least the group stage games would mean a little more.

16 is still way better. Tournament bloat is watering down my interest, in most tournaments.

Just for fun, and using the actual qualifiers played this year (yeah I know, counterfactual and all that):

If we were limited to 16 teams, we would not have had the four nations league qualifiers: Hungary, Slovakia, Scotland, and North Macedonia. We would also not have had Finland, Wales, Czech Republic, and Sweden.


Belated cosign. Out of the 3 options I would rank them 1) 16 team "cream of the crop" 2) 32 team "fun for the underdogs" and...150) this confusing hybrid. Any true round needs to eliminate 50% of the teams left. And playoffs need to be easily explained. My wife's just getting into soccer and "finish in the top two of the group" makes sense. The uncertainty of finishing 3rd, and what kind of results you're looking for to get to that squishy 3rd place "good enough" standing is garbage.

I like the 16 version because I tend to find the group stages a bit boring when the top 2 are obvious and find "groups of death" to be unfair/bad luck. For the World Cup, I'm more inclined to enjoy the underdog status of weaker teams being excited to just be part of it. With 32 teams for Euros, there would at least be some value in the bigger clubs playing together and getting better in the group stage. I'd be able to better familiarize myself with the teams and their styles, as I zero interest in national teams prior to these finals.
   116. Bret Sabermatrician Posted: June 14, 2021 at 04:59 PM (#6024156)
Spain really Spained that game. Almost a thousand passes and really maybe 3 true chances for them. Sweden probably had 2 true chances in 800 less passes.
   117. Textbook Editor Posted: June 14, 2021 at 10:23 PM (#6024237)
Aunt Bea--thanks for the info on Torquay; I had forgotten it started at 12pm UK time Saturday, and when I when searching for a MBM at 12 noon EDT... I discovered it was over.

Now to try to find an illegal BT Sport stream for next Sunday's final... Very exciting times for the Gulls!
   118. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: June 14, 2021 at 10:43 PM (#6024248)
Muamba talks about Eriksen.. Fairly short piece but he talks about the mental aspect of it and notes that it’s not going to be an issue just for Eriksen but his family and his teammates.
   119. I am going to be Frank Posted: June 15, 2021 at 12:07 PM (#6024278)
Man Portugal has a really stacked team.
   120. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 15, 2021 at 12:27 PM (#6024279)
Can't stand Ronaldo, but full credit to him for staying in such good shape at 36. This is his 5th Euros. Maybe unlikely but not inconceivable that he could paly again in 3 years at age 39. (Or maybe not that unlikely if they play him even if he doesn't really deserve to be out there based on ability alone, at that point, which is certainly possible.) He's basically a shoe-in for a 5th world cup.
   121. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 15, 2021 at 12:37 PM (#6024280)
3 points with good GD likely gets you through. So, in most groups playing for a draw against the top team makes sense, but playing for a draw against weaker teams is not so useful. Hungary has no chance of drawing all 3 teams in the group, so they won't get through that way. However, a draw still might help them avoid being one of the teams with 3 points that gets left behind.

Realistically though, if the game is close late I would hope Hungary would keep trying for the winner, since a win is so much more valuable to them in this group than a draw.
   122. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 15, 2021 at 12:45 PM (#6024282)
Ronaldo missed a massive chance. xG (infogol) gave it only 0.23. um, no.
   123. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 15, 2021 at 01:16 PM (#6024283)
Ronaldo's chance was apparently, and appropriately), changed to a "big chance" at the half, so its xG went to .66. That might be too high, considering the pace the ball was coming in to Ronaldo at, but it's closer than 0.23.
   124. bunyon Posted: June 15, 2021 at 03:04 PM (#6024309)
It looked to me like the ball was either slightly deflected by a defender on the cross or he got a bad hop. Hard to imagine he just missed that badly.

What did you all think of the penalty on Hungary? Announcers didn't like it but it looked fine to me.
   125. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: June 15, 2021 at 03:24 PM (#6024313)
Great finish from Hummels.
   126. bunyon Posted: June 15, 2021 at 03:30 PM (#6024315)
125: I've got the game on while doing other things and I literally thought that. I heard the announcer call a cross, I looked up and saw the "finish" and thought, nice goal. Only to be confused why the French were celebrating.
   127. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 15, 2021 at 04:26 PM (#6024325)
Penalty against Hungary looked legit to me. Sometimes on similar plays the forward just goes down when he feels contact on the upper arm, no matter how slight. In this case though he was a smaller guy with a big defender and it really looked like the extended grabbing threw him well off balance, ruining any chance he had to finish the play. Also the defender came from slightly behind on the play, and only got level via the grab.

FWIW, announcers on the channel I was on seemed to think it was a legit penalty.
   128. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 15, 2021 at 05:08 PM (#6024328)
Very unlikely set of results in the first round of games, at least based on xG (infogol version). Of the 10 wins, 4 were won by the team with significantly less xG: Finland over Denmark, Czech Republic over Scotland, Slovakia over Poland, and France over Germany. Average xGD in those 4 games was +1.25 in favor of the loser. On top of that, there were 2 draws, neither of which were anywhere close by xG: Wales drawing Switzerland and Sweden drawing Spain. Average xGD margin +1.85.

This game just now (France/Germany) was probably the closest of the round, though by infogol xG the England game was the very closest. No games were close: both these closest games had about a 1 xGD margin. France did get an own goal off a dangerous cross though (for 0 xG), and 2 close plays that were goals called back for offside, so it was quite a bit closer than a 1 xGD margin. Still you have to think Germany outplayed France soundly until very late at least, when they gave up the offside goals. Still lost of course.

With 6 very tough results out of 12, we'll see how these teams bounce back in this very forgiving format. All 6 won't advance, in particular Scotland and to a lesser extent Poland are in bad shape, but maybe 4 of the 6 will.
   129. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: June 15, 2021 at 06:29 PM (#6024335)
Still you have to think Germany outplayed France soundly until very late at least, when they gave up the offside goals.

I have to? Because I really don't.
   130. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 15, 2021 at 08:59 PM (#6024357)
ok well France did basically nothing until their offside chances, so...

I forgot the Curacao game happened, but they came very close to advancing to the final 8. I think they only needed the 1 away goal (if away goals count in Concacaf playoffs) and they had as many shots as Panama. didn't see the game though, so I'm not sure if any were quality.
   131. Mefisto Posted: June 15, 2021 at 10:14 PM (#6024375)
I assume FP's point is that France were sitting deep and willing to play on the counter. They got those chances, but failed to convert. The lack of other opportunities was more a tactic than an offensive failure.
   132. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: June 16, 2021 at 02:25 AM (#6024467)
ok well France did basically nothing until their offside chances, so...

I don't know, I feel we weren't watching the same game. To me France always looked like the more dangerous team (even if you completely discount the 2 offside goals), it is just that a lot of their dangerous play didn't lead directly to a shot that xg counts. The cross to the own goal, and the 2 offside goals are mentioned. For example Mbappe was through on goal, when Hummels somehow managed to recover and tackle him through the legs without giving up a penalty and a red card. Now credit to Hummels for pulling it off, but absolutely still a high quality chance (for me the biggest of the match), that counts for exactly 0 xg.

Even discounting that, I think it is still ridiculous to say France did basically nothing, compared to Germany. I thought the biggest xg chance should have been Pogba's header 15 minutes in. Absolutely free header from 6 yards out. Ally McCoist on the broadcast said he has to score... xg says 0.13.

Except for about a 10 minute stretch shortly after half time (after Rabiot his the post, further contributing to France doing basically nothing apparently), Germany looked largely toothless and completely bereft of ideas of how to break France down. France had more pace, more athleticism, and when they had the ball more fluidity and purpose going forward. I don't think they dominated the game or could have complained about a draw, but I do think they were the better side. Fairly comfortably.

To me, this points to the folly of relying on xg for single matches. An approach I have consistently been opposed to. Doubly so for low xg matches like this one, where a few shifts here or there could make massive differences. It's like looking at 10 PA worth of data between two hitters, and saying the guy that went 3/10 did better than the guy who went 2/10. But could be ignoring that the first guy hit a few bloopers, or dribblers through the infield, and the second guy hit a bunch of line drives that just happened to be hit directly at guys. Over the long run of a season stuff like that tends to even out. Over a single game, it absolutely does not.
   133. spivey 2 Posted: June 16, 2021 at 09:43 AM (#6024488)
People always overrate header xG.

As for the match, I agree that the highest non-shot xG all went France's way. That balances out the shot xG.

I don't like how Germany lined up, or who played. They have the spine of Bayern. I'd play those guys all where they are best and used to each other. Maybe play Gundo instead of Goretzka. Kimmich is their best player and they're playing him out of position. Not sure I like them doing 3 at the back - maybe works better for Gosens and frees up Kimmich, but it also just puts one more of their worst players in the squad on the pitch. With so many Bayern and Chelsea players I feel like they could easily run more club-type pressing tactics.

As for France... I don't like how they play. I guess it's just a product of having that midfield. Kante/Pogba/Rabiot is a good midfield, but it's not going to win the possession battle vs. other top midfields, and both their full backs are more defenders first. I think that could catch up to them. I think I'd man mark Pogba, who isn't very press resistant but they rely on so heavily for ball progression.
   134. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 16, 2021 at 09:53 AM (#6024490)
For example Mbappe was through on goal, when Hummels somehow managed to recover and tackle him through the legs without giving up a penalty and a red card.
Agree, but this came very late, I think after 75 minutes. Not in the part of the game I was referring to. Germany was pushing much harder at this point and leaving bigger holes at the back. This was the part of the game where France really was a lot better than Germany. For all of Germany's increased intent they got nothing going forward in the last 30 minutes, and left big holes at the back.

Even discounting that, I think it is still ridiculous to say France did basically nothing, compared to Germany. I thought the biggest xg chance should have been Pogba's header 15 minutes in. Absolutely free header from 6 yards out. Ally McCoist on the broadcast said he has to score... xg says 0.13.
Muller's chance was overrated by xG and Pogba's probably underrated, but Gnabry's chance was the best of the game (out of chances that resulted in a shot. Not including Mbappe's breakaway, etc.)

France may be the better side and may have deserved a draw on the day. Still think they were outplayed for 60 minutes.
   135. Richard Posted: June 16, 2021 at 09:53 AM (#6024491)
Class goal from Russia just before HT v Finland. Good game. The Finns unlucky to have an early goal chalked out for offside but been on the defensive for much of the half. They look decent on the counter though.
   136. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 16, 2021 at 10:01 AM (#6024495)
Scoreline creates such a bias in terms of perception. Just now in the game the announcers were saying how comfortable Finland looked because it was 0-0. Russia had a lot of possession in the final third, and Finland did not look comfortable to me. Right after that was said by the announcers, Russia had a very dangerous break ruined by an errant pass, followed by a tasty cross that just missed being a dangerous shot from the 6-yard box, and then the goal. All in the next 2 minutes. Then of course the announcers say they had been dominating.
   137. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 16, 2021 at 10:50 AM (#6024512)
Latest view: both teams bad.
   138. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 16, 2021 at 11:12 AM (#6024521)
Denmark is greatly benefited by this result. Now so long as they keep it close against Belgium, even a loss means very likely they will advance so long as they just beat Russia by any score. Seems doable.

Keeping it close against Belgium and beating Russia would very likely put them second in the group. In that scenario they would be guaranteed at least 3rd with decent GD, so would have a strong chance of advancing regardless.
   139. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 16, 2021 at 12:49 PM (#6024541)
Just such a pretty goal by Wales. Great run against a static defense and an awesome ball over the top by Bale. Control and finish by Ramsey top notch as well. It helps to have two top players and great timing, but I always wonder why offensive players aren't often making similar runs building up a head of steam to run past a static defensive line that can't recover quickly, in the hopes/plans of getting a good ball over the top.

Sheer exhaustion and disappointment in not receiving a pass are probably the main reasons. One good chance though makes up for 20 or more runs that go nowhere, so it seems worth it.
   140. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 16, 2021 at 01:57 PM (#6024556)
Turkey not learning from Bale just taking the ball from the corner straight to the goal.

Congrats to Wales who will advance now. Turkey even with a win over Switzerland probably goes out. GD -5 already, so they are basically done. Switzerland could still, and probably will still advance.

We'll see how it shakes out, but there may not be much incentive to win this group, so the Wales/Italy game could have little of note on the line.
   141. bunyon Posted: June 16, 2021 at 02:01 PM (#6024557)
When Bale broke for the goal on the first corner, I thought, clever, but they've given it away and no one will fall for that if they need it in later games.

Then he did 30 seconds later. I guess it's easier to make mental adjustments when you haven't played your ass off for 95 minutes.
   142. bunyon Posted: June 16, 2021 at 02:02 PM (#6024559)
I think your complaints about 16 of 24 advancing will mostly hurt the third matchday. There will be a lot of final games that don't mean much.
   143. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 16, 2021 at 03:14 PM (#6024572)
The crowd noise at this game is interesting, as a lot of the vocal fans seem to be rooting for Switzerland. I know Switzerland borders Italy, but Rome is still pretty far from Switzerland.
   144. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 16, 2021 at 03:23 PM (#6024573)
Chiellini is the type of player who have the ball "accidentally" hit his hand to give him an advantage.

They have just now (starting with this tournament) tightened the offensive handling rule such that the inadvertent handball wipes off a goal only if it leads immediately to the goal, but that's what happened here anyway.
   145. Mefisto Posted: June 16, 2021 at 03:43 PM (#6024581)
There's probably nobody in soccer I dislike more than Chiellini and no one I'd rather see have a goal called back.
   146. Red Menace Posted: June 16, 2021 at 03:44 PM (#6024582)
A lot of Swiss guard on break from the Vatican?
   147. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: June 16, 2021 at 03:49 PM (#6024585)
What little I've seen of the game it seems like Switzerland doesn't realize how wide the pitch is. They are staying very narrow in possession and making it very easy for Italy to take it away.
   148. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 16, 2021 at 04:48 PM (#6024599)
With all these goals Switzerland is giving up, that 1 point they got against Wales might be the difference that gets them through after all, assuming they can beat Turkey.
   149. bunyon Posted: June 16, 2021 at 04:50 PM (#6024600)
I forget: Does head to head come before GD in the tie break?
   150. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 16, 2021 at 05:25 PM (#6024612)
In Euros yes, since UEFA runs it, not FIFA. In WCQ and WC overall group GD comes first.
   151. bunyon Posted: June 16, 2021 at 05:35 PM (#6024616)
Thanks. But I guess it doesn't matter - Wales and Switzerland tie. So, to come second, Switzerland has win, Wales lose and Switzerland make up a five goal differential? Yikes. But I guess they'll try to pour it on Turkey.
   152. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 16, 2021 at 07:02 PM (#6024632)
Oh yeah if it's only a 2-way tie between teams that drew each other (as it would be here), than you just go to group GD anyway.

Seems like a steep climb and it is, but Italy could beat Wales by 2 goals easily. And based on how Turkey played defense today, Switzerland could score 3 on them.

There's a very good chance 3rd place in group A plays 1st place in group F, at this point likely to be France, whereas 2nd place in Group A plays 2nd in Group B, likely Denmark or Russia. So Switzerland should really try to pour it on or hope Italy does. Wales should just play for the 0-0 draw. Depending on how adventurous Italy decides they want to be, that Wales game could be very boring.
   153. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: June 16, 2021 at 08:39 PM (#6024648)
Italy working hard to shed the defensive stereotype in this tournament. Though it makes sense given their aging center backs. (Despite saying that, I guess they haven't conceded in 10+ games.)
   154. jmurph Posted: June 17, 2021 at 10:35 AM (#6024717)
Fabrizio Romano, who seems to be the best sourced european soccer reporter, has reported that the Spurs/Fonseca talks broke down after a verbal contract was agreed. Search is restarting.
   155. Mefisto Posted: June 17, 2021 at 10:39 AM (#6024719)
Spurs really must be a big club now that they have coach drama.
   156. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 17, 2021 at 10:50 AM (#6024724)
Ukraine really dominated this game, but North Macedonia was scrappy and managed to keep the scoreline close. Without a positive GD going into their last game, Ukraine might need a draw against Austria to advance. Could be another super boring game where both teams just need a draw to go through. North Macedonia is effectively eliminated now.
   157. jmurph Posted: June 17, 2021 at 10:56 AM (#6024727)
Twitter says it's going to be Gattuso at Spurs. Not sure what happened at the end at Napoli, I guess it was just missing out on the Champions League, but it seemed like he was highly regarded for a bit. Then he was in and immediately out at Fiorentina before managing a day. So uhhhh, no idea!
   158. spivey 2 Posted: June 17, 2021 at 11:32 AM (#6024736)
Daniel Levy is really pushing the boundaries of how far he can go before the team loses their fanbase. Jesus ####### Christ everything since firing Pochettino has been absurd.
   159. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 17, 2021 at 12:04 PM (#6024744)
Whoops. Gift by Belgium's defense. Denmark's odds of advancing just went up quite a lot.

edit: and Denmark with two more good chances! A very wacky start.
   160. bunyon Posted: June 17, 2021 at 12:18 PM (#6024746)
Yeah, someone should tell Belgium that Eriksen's stoppage was only supposed to be that one minute.
   161. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 17, 2021 at 12:46 PM (#6024754)
I think Belgium has 1 shot, a low probability one at that. at least it was from inside the box.
   162. bunyon Posted: June 17, 2021 at 01:02 PM (#6024755)
Those of us who've read Hamlet know not to get excited by the 1-0 lead.
   163. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 17, 2021 at 01:30 PM (#6024763)
heh.

I missed the first 20 minutes of this half. De Bruyne's goal was so sweetly taken.
   164. jmurph Posted: June 17, 2021 at 01:32 PM (#6024764)
Ahh Kevin De Bruyne is so got damn good, I love it.
   165. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 17, 2021 at 01:47 PM (#6024766)
sheesh. Denmark has been snakebit so far this tournament.

Assuming this one ends 2-1, a win by Denmark against Russia, who has not looked good, and Denmark very likely finish second in the group. In that sense this result is almost as good as a draw. Obviously not as good as a win they may have deserved.

edit: 2 games where they were the far more dangerous team, and 2 losses.
   166. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 17, 2021 at 01:54 PM (#6024768)
It's too bad, because if Denmark had won this game, a win against Russia and they would have (very likely) topped the group.
   167. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 17, 2021 at 01:56 PM (#6024770)
They brought up Schmeichel for a late corner and almost gave up an empty netter on the break. That was probably not too smart. A draw here does not necessarily provide more positive value than a goal the other way gives negative value (in terms of group advancement), so the risk was not worth it. Great save by the Denmark defender to save their blushes.
   168. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: June 17, 2021 at 02:03 PM (#6024772)
Fabrizio Romano, who seems to be the best sourced european soccer reporter, has reported that the Spurs/Fonseca talks broke down after a verbal contract was agreed. Search is restarting.


Alasdair Gold, who is *very* well sourced when it comes to Spurs, is reporting that the talks didn't break down, but that Spurs (Paratici) unilaterally called it off when Gattuso (reportedly his *first* choice) suddenly became available.
Un-#######-real.
It is understood that Paratici is an admirer of Gattuso, who led Napoli to win the Coppa Italia in 2020 but was sacked this season after the club missed out on Champions League qualification on the final day of the campaign.

When word came that Gattuso could suddenly became available, and that proved to be the case on Thursday, that forced a sudden change in direction and Spurs broke off the talks with Fonseca and instead switched to the fiery former Milan boss.


football.london
   169. jmurph Posted: June 17, 2021 at 02:22 PM (#6024781)
Despite the wins, Belgium really haven't impressed have they?
   170. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 17, 2021 at 03:47 PM (#6024799)
Belgium did make Russia look pretty poor, but maybe that's just because Russia is bad.

If the Nederlanders win this, thye will have clinched the group and North Macedonia will be out. This was the easiest group in the tournament. That Austria/Ukraine game could be very exciting, or a real stinker. Hopefully someone gets an early goal even if it's by mistake.
   171. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 17, 2021 at 04:08 PM (#6024803)
Denmark is being given a 60% chance of beating Russia, and a 55% chance of advancing. The only situations where they win but don't advance is if they win 1-0 and Finland loses to Belgium, but scores and loses by only 1 goal OR Finland wins/draws (under 30% total). Even then they need a little bit of bad luck to be one of the 3rd place teams that goes out.

Finland and Russia both are under 50% to advance, but both still have a good shot. Either gets in with a result, and Finland also has a chance to get in with a loss if they keep it close. Russia still could get in with a 1-goal loss but even then it would be pretty unlikely.

Switzerland is in a similar spot, needing a win to advance, and being given 56% or so. Turkey is a huge longshot now.
   172. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 17, 2021 at 04:18 PM (#6024811)
Sending up Schmeichel on the last corner:

A draw today would have given Denmark a 60% chance to advance versus their current 55% chance, so was decently more valuable (+5%). however, a 2-goal loss today would have made it more likely they would lose out on GD in a competition of 3rd place teams. They would be the 3rd place team 30% of the time (assuming they win, so 18% total), and 1 GD could mean a lot, how much is hard to say right now. Most likely they will be right at the critical spot with 2 points and -1 or 0 GD, so 1 goal could make a big difference. Even if there is only a 10% chance that goal would matter, Denmark was chasing 5% but risking 2% by sending Schmeichel. Those are very bad odds for sending up your keeper.
   173. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 17, 2021 at 04:28 PM (#6024822)
Similarly, now that Austria is down by 2, they might want to seriously consider not trying to leave themselves open by going for 2 more goals to get a very unlikely draw at this point. If they lose to Ukraine GD would likely matter for them as well, and they are already staring at -1 (at best) if they lose their final game.
   174. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 17, 2021 at 04:36 PM (#6024826)
Netherlands will win the group, and will face third in group D, E, or F. F is what they want to avoid. Still way too early to know who they will likely face.
   175. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 17, 2021 at 04:56 PM (#6024829)
Not sure how much this matters to Austria, but with a 2-0 loss today, a draw with Ukraine puts them in 3rd place rather than 2nd. 2nd place faces probably Italy. 3rd is uncertain still, but could be first in group E (likely Spain) or F (likely France).
   176. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 17, 2021 at 08:20 PM (#6024857)
Current odds of Ukraine/Austria draw is just under 50%
   177. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: June 18, 2021 at 07:37 AM (#6024929)
Is this what a clown show looks like?

This is what a clown show looks like ...
   178. Bret Sabermatrician Posted: June 18, 2021 at 09:49 AM (#6024941)
I'm not sure if negative xG is possible, but in ~140 minutes of Euro football, Sweden's games have to have the lowest xG possible.

Also, looking back at Spain's heatmap from last game, it's hilarious how hard they worked to avoid having any central attack against Sweden. It's like they thought they'd fall into an abyss if they had anyone stand in the middle of the pitch.
   179. spivey 2 Posted: June 18, 2021 at 10:47 AM (#6024951)
Isak is so damn good. I knew he did really well in La Liga, but hadn't really seen him play. He's incredible.
   180. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: June 18, 2021 at 10:53 AM (#6024952)
That wasn't the most exciting game in the world (to say the least) but as often happens it got a lot more intriguing after the goal. Sweden may not be the most fun team in the world to watch but they have done well to be in this position.
   181. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 18, 2021 at 11:14 AM (#6024955)
Had to work during almost the whole game (ugh), but congrats to Sweden for advancing. The win puts Poland in a very bad spot, as now if they lose to Spain they are out. Slovakia has a GD of 0, so has an excellent chance of advancing if they can keep it close against Spain in their last game.
   182. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 18, 2021 at 12:22 PM (#6024958)
Game is only 20 minutes in, but Croatia can't seem to do much of anything at all against this Czech team, that was for the most part (except for, ahem, the goals) easily handled by Scotland. It's been very one sided.

Still much too early to get a read, but if the Czech Republic can get at least a draw that benefits Scotland greatly. First, it would show that Croatia isn't very good, and also, it would allow Scotland to finish third in the group by beating them. Still might need to beat them by at least 2 goals unless they can draw England.
   183. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 18, 2021 at 12:38 PM (#6024961)
Shouldn't be jumping with your elbows above your shoulder in the box. It's a risk that if they hit someone in the face it will be a penalty. Whether it's the right call or not is harder to say. Schick scored while bleeding all over the place from the knock on the nose.

edit: elbow was way out and clearly above the shoulder, swinging. He ran a serious risk of getting a penalty, and I'm not surprised it was given, considering the contact.
   184. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 18, 2021 at 12:57 PM (#6024962)
With hard contact to the face, I think that will be given on VAR most of the time. Lovren was unlucky to hit Schick in the face at all, but that's the risk you take.

edit: all the announcers hated the call at halftime, except for Klinsmann, who seemed to take no position. I was worried Klinsmann was going to support the call in which case I would have to switch my own view to a strong "oppose".
   185. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 18, 2021 at 02:08 PM (#6024969)
The Trippier/Walker experience lasted 1 game. Shaw/James are in there today. Rest of the starters unchanged.
   186. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 18, 2021 at 03:53 PM (#6024984)
That first half sure was boring, and I slept through most of it. Still England somehow managed to create (according to xG) three good chances, which is more than they had in their first game against Croatia.
   187. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: June 18, 2021 at 04:52 PM (#6024993)
Still much too early to get a read, but if the Czech Republic can get at least a draw that benefits Scotland greatly. First, it would show that Croatia isn't very good, and also, it would allow Scotland to finish third in the group by beating them. Still might need to beat them by at least 2 goals unless they can draw England.

You were saying?
   188. Mefisto Posted: June 18, 2021 at 04:58 PM (#6024995)
Pathetic display by England. I really don't know what Southgate was thinking.
   189. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 18, 2021 at 05:31 PM (#6025001)
Well now. A draw and guess what England finishes second in the group. They could even finish second in the group with a 1-goal loss, or actually any loss if Scotland doesn't beat Croatia. So, it's well within their reach to pick their next opponent. Could be a real stinker next week. Then again, they might feel like they have something to prove after today.

Contrarily, Croatia/Scotland could be very exciting. A draw means both teams go out. Tune me in. I want to see both goalies up in the last 5 minutes.
   190. Mefisto Posted: June 18, 2021 at 05:54 PM (#6025005)
Sure, if the idea is to finish second. But even then he could have rotated his lineup more. It's a long season and a compact tournament, and England have lots of attacking talent. He should give his top guys a rest.
   191. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 18, 2021 at 06:51 PM (#6025012)
I don't know what they will do, but finishing first can't be a high priority, considering they would be up against a group F team, rather than (most likely) Sweden.
   192. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 19, 2021 at 09:50 AM (#6025146)
First half was going as you might have expected. A few good chances for France, none for Hungary. Absolutely nothing or Hungary going forward, really. France wasn't able to put any of their chances away so it was still 0-0.

Then France gives up a breakaway goal on some bad defending. 1-0 Hungary. This scoreline won't hold up.
   193. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 19, 2021 at 10:58 AM (#6025153)
Quite a bit of shithousery to run the last 10 minutes or so down with little action.

France was fine today. This is a packed hostile crowd, and France had lots of chances, and only gave up one big one.

Congrats to Hungary for holding on. It's now very likely France will need to beat Portugal to win the group. That means France's most likely spot in the group now is 2nd. 2nd in group F faces the winner in England's group.
   194. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 19, 2021 at 12:07 PM (#6025156)
Handball in the buildup shouldn't count (under new rules), but Gnabry making a play on it should count as offside, even though no connection was made by Gnabry. Right call by the refs all around.

Great cross and finish overturned. Gnabry was inly inches offside too.
   195. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 19, 2021 at 12:15 PM (#6025157)
Germany has been all over Portugal early. No really good chances yet except for the offside goal, but Portugal can't go 90 like this without giving up 1 or 2.

edit: of course, then they give up a goal on the break.
   196. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 19, 2021 at 12:37 PM (#6025160)
That goal is not a surprise. Germany has been in Portugal's box all day despite getting no good shots to that point. The danger for Germany is giving up more goals on the break.

Announcers were acting like Germany was being outplayed all game, but it's very hard to tell in a game like this where one team has all the attacks but at any moment could give up one on the break.

edit: Announcers just announce to the scoreline. It's so idiotic. For the first 15 minutes they are all in praise of Germany. Portugal gets one on the break and they spend the next 20 minutes praising Portugal. Now they say 1-1 is a fair result to this point. Way to take a stand guys.

edit2: and now a second goal. Don't forget the actual offside goal too...
   197. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: June 19, 2021 at 12:40 PM (#6025161)
Portugal have been clinical in front of goal! Scored 3 now!
   198. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 19, 2021 at 12:55 PM (#6025162)
Both own goals were from very dangerous attacks, so half credit to Germany on each. If Germany can figure out to get 80% of this attack going forward while not looking so vulnerable on the break, they would win this game 9 times out of 10.

On the Portugal goal one Germany player (Havertz) initially was trying to cover two guys. I mention this because once the ball got past him he just gave up on the play so wasn't anywhere near the action when Ronaldo scored, though he could have been right in the mix there even with half an effort. Defending like a forward.

If Germany is going to play this style where they are vulnerable on the break, they need buy-in from the one guy that happens to be in position to stop it or slow it down, no matter who that is. Reeks of ineffective coaching that Havertz wasn't inclined to give full effort there.
   199. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 19, 2021 at 01:19 PM (#6025163)
Assuming Germany can hold on here and would beat Hungary at home, both of which are quite likely (maybe 95%+ here, and 80%+ against Hungary), France would need the win against Portugal to finish top of the group. A draw would put them in 2nd, and a loss in 3rd. Germany would finish either first or second, and Portugal second or third.
   200. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 19, 2021 at 01:19 PM (#6025164)
This is a slaughter, honestly.

edit: Portugal might already be at the point where they need a draw or they risk going out with 3 points and not good enough GD. those late goals against Hungary might end up being the ones that save them. Lucky for Portugal all the other groups will have finished by the time they play, so they will know what they need. France might not be trying too hard for the win at that point either, depending on how much they care to top the group.
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