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Wednesday, June 02, 2021

OT Soccer Thread - In Which Euro 2020 Is Played in 2021

With the club season done it’s on to what is going to be a more normal summer than last year.  Bunch of stuff that was supposed to get played last year, bunch of stuff that was supposed to be played this year moves to next year.

Euro 2020 - June 11 - July 11
Gold Cup - July 10 - August 1
Copa America 2020 - June 13 - July 10 - due to COVID issues in host Argentina the tournament has been moved to a safer location…Brazil.  Presumably the next option is an infectious disease ward of a hospital.
2020 Olympics Men - July 22 - August 7
2020 Olympics Women - July 21 - August 6
CONCACAF Nations League Semi-Final and Final - June 3 and June 6
CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying - June 12 and June 15 - Winners advance to the Octagon, the Hexagon is dead, long live the Hexagon.
2021-22 Champions League - June 22 Preliminary Round, August 26 Group Stage Draw
2021-22 Europa League - Third Qualifying Round August 5, schedule is weird, I can’t find details of the previous two rounds but presumably on a similar schedule to the Champions League
2021-22 Europa Conference - First Qualifying Round July 8
2021 Women’s Euros - Postponed to 2022 (I’ll defer to others on the women’s game as I don’t follow closely enough to know what other big tournaments there are)

Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: June 02, 2021 at 08:55 AM | 865 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off topic, soccer

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   201. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 19, 2021 at 01:52 PM (#6025166)
With losing by just two in the end, Portugal could probably still lose by 1 or even 2 and advance. They'll know by the time the game starts.

Germany mostly stopped trying to score after going up 4-1, but they didn't look any better on defense after that anyway.
   202. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 19, 2021 at 05:33 PM (#6025183)
It's not set in stone yet, but 4 points is still extremely likely to be enough, with 3 points and good GD also likely.

Percentage chance of each group having a third place team with 4 or more points:

Group A: 58 (Switzerland win)
Group B: 11 (Russia and Finland both get a result)
Group C: 48 (Ukraine and Austria draw)
Group D: 74 (Croatia and Scotland don't draw)
Group E: 33 (Poland win)
Group F: 55 (Portugal and Germany get a result)

The odds of 5 or more of those happening is very low. Probably around 5%.

Likewise the odds of 3 points and any GD being sufficient are very low. You would need 2 groups with less than 3 points:

Group A: 23 (Switzerland and Turkey draw)
Group B: --
Group C: --
Group D: 26 (Croatia and Scotland draw)
Group E: 2 (Spain loss and Poland does not win)
Group F: --

The odds of 2 of those hitting is around 7%.

That leaves 3 points and good GD as the dividing line. From here it gets complicated but 0 GD is likely good enough. It is very hard now to finish 3rd in the group with 3 points and a GD higher than 0. In G. It can't happen in Group C, D, E, or F. It could happen in Group B if Denmark wins by at least 3 and Finland gets a result. It could also happen in Group A if Turkey wins by 6. Both are very unlikely.

So 3 points with 0 GD should likely be enough, and bonus for high goals scored. This is where Portugal's late goal might end up being critical, as they can lose by a goal to France and very likely advance. This is also where Denmark wants to win by 2 if Finland is within reach of Belgium late in their game (hence, sending up Schmeichel was not too smart in the last game). Spain probably gets through with a draw but it's not guaranteed. A Spain draw would leave them right on the edge and maybe outside looking in.

The other teams that might finish 3rd with 3 points should really be trying to get a point. That's Finland, Russia, Ukraine, Austria, and Slovakia.





   203. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 19, 2021 at 06:04 PM (#6025187)
6 draws in 24 games is entirely average.

Only 1 team eliminated so far: North Macedonia. Others are hanging by a thread of course. Namely Turkey and Hungary. Scotland and Poland are well below 50%, and Slovakia and Croatia not far behind. Russia and Finland are also below 50% but close.

Only 3 teams have actually qualified (Italy, Belgium, Netherlands), but a whole lot more are virtually there, barring something extraordinary (England, Czech Republic, Wales, France, and Sweden almost certainly all get through even with losses, Germany just needs a point against Hungary, Spain probably just needs a point against Slovakia, and Portugal probably just needs not to lose by a bunch of goals to France.) That leaves Ukraine, Austria, Switzerland, and Denmark as the last teams that are not virtual certainties but are over 50%.

You might notice a trend here. The teams that are virtually certain to be in are all the top tier teams, with the addition of Czech Republic, Wales, and Sweden (all in the second tier). The teams more likely than not headed out are all the bottom tier teams, with the addition of Poland and Croatia. The last four teams are all in the middle tier, except Austria who might be best of the bottom eight. So even in this forgiving format with weirdly arranged groups we have few real surprises after 2 rounds. Hopefully the third round will throw something at us.
   204. I am going to be Frank Posted: June 19, 2021 at 07:10 PM (#6025192)
Portugal’s two defensive midfielders didn’t seem to give much shielding. If they’re not doing their defensive duties, then they need to put in one of the more dynamic ones.

I think low needs to bench hummels. He’s close to being a german legend, but he’s such a liability because he is so slow.
   205. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 20, 2021 at 12:35 PM (#6025336)
Two great shots by Switzerland and this one is probably over. Turkey keeps finding new ways to play poor defense--so far they have probably been the worst team in the tournament. Not just on the scoreboard either. They've been bad in all games.
   206. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 20, 2021 at 12:41 PM (#6025337)
Turkey will be out without a win. Announcer: "while it's important to get a goal back, it's equally important not to give up a third". Um, no.
   207. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 20, 2021 at 12:46 PM (#6025339)
We are 60% of the way to Switzerland taking second in the group and Wales dropping to third. Not totally yet clear which is better, though there is a very good chance 3rd in this group will take on France or Germany as Group F winners.
   208. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: June 20, 2021 at 01:15 PM (#6025340)
That feels like a really harsh red card. I think I have seen that exact same foul about a dozen times this season, and nobody has gotten sent off for it.
   209. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 20, 2021 at 01:16 PM (#6025341)
Wales down to 10. That was very unwise.
   210. bunyon Posted: June 20, 2021 at 01:18 PM (#6025342)
Fancy Pants, I feel like I’ve seen that without a yellow even. I’m unschooled in the subtleties but I don’t get it.
   211. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: June 20, 2021 at 01:21 PM (#6025343)
Yeah, I almost said that myself, but I didn't want to go too far. I have seen similar ones without a yellow. But they tend to hit lower on the foot. Anything that catches the ankle I think is typically a yellow.
   212. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 20, 2021 at 01:22 PM (#6025345)
Goal Turkey. Switzerland now has to worry about giving up another and going out.
   213. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 20, 2021 at 01:28 PM (#6025348)
Scratch that. Goal Switzerland. Announcer loudly makes the unfortunate utterance that they are "now hunting down w(h)ales". At least he didn't preface it by saying they've been feasting on Turkey all evening.
   214. bunyon Posted: June 20, 2021 at 01:29 PM (#6025349)
I think it should have been yellow. I’m just saying those are slight differences that go from a routine foul to a man down in a matter of inches. Like I say, it’s possible I’m missing some key thing but it seems weird to me.
   215. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 20, 2021 at 02:16 PM (#6025350)
By the time Denmark kicks off tomorrow evening they will know whether there are already two 3rd place teams ahead of them in line, as Group C will have already played. If so, they might need 2 goals and a win against Russia to finish second in the group. Depends on what Finland is doing in their game. 3rd with 3 points in Group B really might not be enough, though Denmark could maybe pull it off if they beat Russia by at least 2 and maybe 3. If Denmark does manage to grab 2nd in Group B, they will face Wales.
   216. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: June 21, 2021 at 08:26 AM (#6025509)
The Austria-Ukraine match is well suited for some hi-jinks. A draw would leave both teams on 4 points and the third place team (Austria) ahead of one team already (Switzerland) on GD and through for certain if Finland or Russia lose. Fortunately Austria doesn't have a track record of anything sketchy in the final matchday of a group stage in their history.
   217. Mefisto Posted: June 21, 2021 at 09:16 AM (#6025513)
Fabrizio Romano reports that City have offered 100 million for Kane, but that Spurs will reject offer.

Insane on both ends, if true.
   218. spivey 2 Posted: June 21, 2021 at 09:24 AM (#6025515)
Assuming that report is true... I imagine City's players have no interest in this, but they have so many talented players, many of whom are squeezed for time, that I'd love a swap deal. I think Gabriel Jesus, for example, is an incredible player at a great but one who may not come Tottenham otherwise. Also hard to see where he fits on their team, especially if they *also* are going to try to move for Grealish.

Of course there's Bernardo and Laporte too who have been attached to silly swap rumors with Barca, but I don't buy those guys either want out or would consider Tottenham acceptable. Bernardo in particular, who is at least a squad player at every team in the world, and probably starts for every team but like 2 or 3.
   219. jmurph Posted: June 21, 2021 at 09:51 AM (#6025520)
Fabrizio Romano reports that City have offered 100 million for Kane, but that Spurs will reject offer.

Insane on both ends, if true.

Yeah I'm surprised and disappointed by this. Hoping United or someone else swoops in instead.
   220. Mefisto Posted: June 21, 2021 at 11:26 AM (#6025532)
United are both stupid enough to offer more and stupid enough to get into a bidding war with City.
   221. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 21, 2021 at 11:27 AM (#6025533)
In case the sarcasm didn't come through over the interwebs, 216 is referring to this:

The match summary on Wiki is amusing.

After ten minutes of furious attack, West Germany succeeded in scoring through a goal by Horst Hrubesch after a cross from the left. After the goal was scored, the team in possession of the ball often passed between themselves in their own half until an opposition player came into the vicinity of the ball, then the ball was passed back to the goalkeeper. Isolated long balls were played into the opposition's half, with little consequence. There were few tackles, and both sets of players flamboyantly missed with apparently no attempt at accuracy whenever they shot on goal. The only Austrian player who seemed to make any effort at livening the game up was Walter Schachner, though he had little success, while one of the few serious attempts on net was made by Wolfgang Dremmler of West Germany.[2]

This performance was widely deplored by all observers. West German ARD commentator Eberhard Stanjek at one point refused to comment on the game any longer. Austrian commentator Robert Seeger bemoaned the spectacle, and asked viewers to turn off their television sets. George Vecsey, a New York Times journalist, stated that the teams "seemed to work in concert", though added that proving such would be impossible.[4] El Comercio, the local newspaper, printed the match report in its crime section.[6]

Likewise, many spectators were not impressed and voiced their disgust with the players. Chants of "¡Fuera, fuera!" ("Out, out!"), "¡Argelia, Argelia!" ("Algeria, Algeria!"), and "¡Que se besen, que se besen!" ("Let them kiss, let them kiss!") were shouted by the Spanish crowd,[7] while angry Algerian supporters waved banknotes at the players. The match was criticized even by the West German and Austrian fans who had hoped for a hot rematch of the 1978 World Cup match, the so-called "Miracle of Córdoba", in which Austria had beaten West Germany; one West German fan burned the national flag in protest.
   222. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 21, 2021 at 11:57 AM (#6025534)
I should add, it's only "amusing" in retrospect since I didn't have to watch that 1982 game myself and wasn't invested in the tournament. On a sporting level it's infuriating. If the game today is similar I will not be amused.
   223. Richard Posted: June 21, 2021 at 12:12 PM (#6025537)
I don’t know where this Disgrace of Gijon moniker has come from: in England it’s always called the Anschluss game.

A friend of mine was there through random chance: he and his family went to see Northern Ireland’s group games and somehow ended up at that match too. Tickets were very easy to come by then.
   224. bunyon Posted: June 21, 2021 at 12:43 PM (#6025541)
This game doesn't seem to be the Anschluss. I was worried Austria would fall back after the goal but they haven't.
   225. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 21, 2021 at 12:49 PM (#6025544)
Austria has been so bad in front of goal. Should be 2-0, could easily be 3-0.

Ukraine has been awful. They could still advance with a loss but it's not particularly likely.
   226. bunyon Posted: June 21, 2021 at 12:54 PM (#6025545)
Oh, yeah, they've both been bad. But they look to be trying.
   227. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 21, 2021 at 01:31 PM (#6025557)
I actually thought Ukraine would likely win this one, if they were playing for the win. This has been a very poor display by Ukraine.

Austria is really still the only team pushing the action, and a second goal for them means nothing.
   228. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 21, 2021 at 01:54 PM (#6025564)
If that's the way Ukraine goes out, man that was pathetic. Credit to Austria for giving us a game, even with a lead. If they hadn't come to play, that would have been a terrible spectacle.

edit: now if Denmark wins by 2 they are very likely in, even if they finish third because Finland gets a result. Expect Denmark to push early for a goal.
   229. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 21, 2021 at 02:19 PM (#6025571)
Russia can't afford to lose--they are almost certainly out with any loss. Denmark must win, and might need to win by 2. Sets up to be a fun one.
   230. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 21, 2021 at 03:19 PM (#6025580)
Denmark can't seem to break down Russia at all yet. No shots and Russia is looking solid in the back for the most part, and looking to play off the break. Almost scored after a giveaway in midfield.
   231. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 21, 2021 at 03:31 PM (#6025582)
Looks like a lot of action in that Belgium game. One shot combined, and it was from 30 yards. Denmark might not get any help from Belgium today, so they'd be advised to win by 2.

edit: maybe should have seen this one coming. Finland will definitely advance with a draw, and Belgium will definitely win the group. Sets up perfectly for a nothing game.

edit2: a flurry of shots by Belgium, so maybe something will happen after all.
   232. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 21, 2021 at 03:40 PM (#6025584)
Denmark got the goal. A bit lucky to be ahead considering how toothless they have been for the most part, but they were getting some better dangerous possession in the 5 previous minutes. Now Russia has to open up a bit and anything can happen.
   233. Ron J Posted: June 21, 2021 at 03:49 PM (#6025586)
#221 I watched that match live. Absolutely amazing.
   234. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 21, 2021 at 03:56 PM (#6025588)
Russia did a lot of time wasting in the first half. Ref gave only 1 minute of extra time. Yeah that might be punishing Russia for time wasting, but it's also punishing Denmark because both sides need a goal right now.

I'm willing to put up with the BS because the alternative of a game clock might result in in-game ads. I just don't understand why there isn't an edict from above for refs to be much tighter about how they account for time wasting or other breaks in the action.

In the game the other day, I think it was Hungary/France, there was no more than 2 minutes of game time played in extra time, when the ref originally put up 4 minutes on the clock. Game ended at 4:30 played in extra time. It was totally ridiculous. I think Michael Oliver was reffing.
   235. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 21, 2021 at 04:09 PM (#6025590)
Denmark coach complaining to the refs about Russian player heading his own guy in the back of the head is a bit unseemly when they are both lying on the field in pain, possibly concussed. Even if it was a foul, and it might have been, it was a legitimate attempt at the ball in a not dangerous part of the field. Good moment for the coach to just STFU.

Both players back on now at least, so hopefully nothing serious.
   236. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 21, 2021 at 04:11 PM (#6025592)
Schmeichel has played a lot of long balls today. Almost all of them terrible.
   237. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 21, 2021 at 04:16 PM (#6025594)
Holy #### WTF. Russia is done now.

edit: if the games end like this, Denmark is on the bubble but likely to advance. Ukraine is on the bubble but likely to go home.
   238. bunyon Posted: June 21, 2021 at 04:18 PM (#6025595)
Man. Stepping on the field of big time sports sure opens yourself up to humiliation most of us can only imagine.
   239. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 21, 2021 at 04:22 PM (#6025596)
Denmark needs to pull the trigger in front of goal. They have almost no xG (aside from the gift) but that's in part because they can't seem to decide to shoot when they have the goal in front of them.

And now Russia should be down to 10, but get a gift from the ref.

edit: Belgium finally scored. As it stands, Finland is third in the group, now on the bubble but likely going out. Ukraine is on the bubble but likely in. But no! Ruled out for offside. And now penalty here to Russia. Insanity.
   240. bunyon Posted: June 21, 2021 at 04:34 PM (#6025597)
This is kind of crazy. But fun.

Not giving that yellow was a terrible call.
   241. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 21, 2021 at 04:34 PM (#6025598)
And Belgium has scored after all. If Finland loses and Denmark wins now by just 1 goal, Denmark will be in second, Russia will be in third with bad GD (so, almost no chance to advance), and Finland will be out completely.

edit: and Denmark gets a third! and now a fourth!

Russia's defense, so solid early, started collapsing in the second half as they were chasing goals. Even if Finland pulls one back Denmark is now very likely to advance as one of the third place teams.

Scratch that, as Finland goes down by 2. That's terrible news for Finland, who will finish third but with a GD not good enough to advance. It's great news for Ukraine, who now are on the bubble but likely to make it.
   242. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 21, 2021 at 04:45 PM (#6025602)
Denmark will face Wales, and you would probably think Denmark will be favored in that one. If Finland doesn't make it, very likely first in group C will take on 3rd in Group F. That means we will have Netherlands against probably Portugal in the other game in that quartile, but it could still be France or even Germany.

Also, Switzerland is now in.

The results take some of the fun out of the group F games. France has qualified already, and Portugal will qualify unless they lose by 3 or more. Germany has to lose by 2 or more. In Group E, Spain is in with a draw.

England, Czech Republic, Sweden are all also in now.
   243. bunyon Posted: June 21, 2021 at 04:49 PM (#6025603)
I didn't realize until that 10 minutes how hard I was rooting for Denmark.
   244. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 21, 2021 at 05:01 PM (#6025608)
Oops, I got groups B and C confused, since they played in the wrong order today. We are most likely to have ACDF 3rd place teams advance, but other combinations are certainly possible. If it's ACDF, Switzerland gets the Group F winner, Ukraine gets the Group E winner, 3rd place in Group D gets the Netherlands, and 3rd place in Group F gets Belgium. That last one would be the game of the first KO round probably.
   245. Mefisto Posted: June 21, 2021 at 05:11 PM (#6025609)
@240: Just a terrible failure to call that. The ref should not be assigned any more games.
   246. bunyon Posted: June 21, 2021 at 05:18 PM (#6025611)
@240: Just a terrible failure to call that. The ref should not be assigned any more games.

He also made a hash of the time wasting and gave a soft penalty. He just didn't have a great game.
   247. Mefisto Posted: June 21, 2021 at 06:19 PM (#6025620)
Agreed on all counts.
   248. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 21, 2021 at 10:51 PM (#6025668)
Four teams are out so far, including Finland, and all 4 were in the bottom tier of teams. Yes, even Turkey who played well in a weak qualifying group but still had a low ELO coming into the tournament.

The last 4 bottom tier teams are Scotland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Austria. Austria was the best of the bottom tier, mostly by playing badly leading in to the tournament. They also benefited by playing in the weakest group at the tournament, and one of the only groups with another bottom tier team (the other being Group B with Russia/Finland). Scotland and Slovakia could still easily make it, but both are well below 50% now. Hungary even lower of course.

Of the top 8 teams, it's likely we'll have half of them match up against each other next round. That includes England against the second team in Group F (if England wins their group), or even if they lose, possibly against Spain. We're also going to get the 3rd place team in Group F against either Netherlands or Spain. T
   249. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: June 22, 2021 at 08:30 AM (#6025685)
Croatia-Scotland is well set to be a lot of fun with both teams needing a win.
   250. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: June 22, 2021 at 08:33 AM (#6025686)
But of course we know the big games today take place in Albania. That's right, it's Champions League time!!!

Folgore of San Marino against Prishtina of Kosovo and HB Tórshavn of the Faroe Islands face Inter Club d'Escaldes of Andorra. When Torshavn and Inter get together you can throw out the record books!
   251. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 22, 2021 at 04:44 PM (#6025754)
Oh well. Scotland was quite decent in their games, and 1 goal and 1 point does not do them justice.

That continues the trend of pretty much only the favorites advancing, in all groups so far, and all favorites winning their groups so far. Croatia is in second for now and so will face Sweden or Spain.

Finland is all but officially out now, and Ukraine is on the bubble. Ukraine basically needs Poland not to beat Sweden and Spain not to draw Slovakia.
   252. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 23, 2021 at 12:08 PM (#6025930)
Poland, needing a win, goes a goal down in the second minute. Unless Poland can come back and win, Spain advances with a draw. Most likely now Spain will win but finish second in the group, and Ukraine will qualify at the expense of Slovakia.
   253. spivey 2 Posted: June 23, 2021 at 12:20 PM (#6025935)
Spain transitioned from the best NT of my life to Alvaro Morata taking penalties very seamlessly.
   254. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 23, 2021 at 01:25 PM (#6025941)
If Spain beats Slovakia by 3, technically Finland will still be alive. At least until later today.
   255. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: June 23, 2021 at 01:41 PM (#6025945)
Question about the penalty in the Spain game; what did people think? The announcers seemed to feel it was a clear penalty but to me that should have been a foul on the Spanish player. I was watching in a restaurant so no sound and far away but it seemed to me as the Slovakian player went to kick the ball the Spanish player just stuck his foot in the way and basically blocked the Slovak's* foot.

* Is "Slovak" right? Slovakian? Slovak feels derogatory.
   256. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 23, 2021 at 01:44 PM (#6025946)
Unless somehow Portugal or Germany goes out, the least fancied team to make the last 16 will be Austria, and the most fancied to miss out will be Poland. Those teams are not far apart, and it's not really that clear Austria is any worse.

Well now. Poland not out yet. Spain now in line to top the group like every other favorite so far).
   257. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: June 23, 2021 at 01:55 PM (#6025949)
That was damned entertaining.
   258. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 23, 2021 at 02:22 PM (#6025950)
I wish I could have watched more of it...

Sets up nicely for England and whoever ends up as their opponent. Those two teams are going to be the top two in the bottom half of the bracket. All the last 16 teams are decent, so there is no smooth sailing, but the winner of that game will be favored until the finals.
   259. Esmailyn Gonzalez Sr. Posted: June 23, 2021 at 02:37 PM (#6025951)
Sets up nicely for England to lose in the round of 16. Again.

FTFY
   260. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 23, 2021 at 03:14 PM (#6025963)
Finishing 3rd in Group F is bad. The route to the finals goes through Belgium, then probably Italy, then very likely either Spain or the winner of Group F, and finally whoever makes it to the finals, which could be England or the team finishing 2nd in Group F.

Winning Group F is better, but finishing 2nd in Group F is probably easiest.

Loser of this game will finish 3rd, barring something strange in the Germany game. If Portugal wins likely they will finish second, which would be ideal for both them and England.

Hold your horses though! Hungary has scored against Germany to go up 1-0. It's way too early for this, but if Hungary could somehow steal a win, then either Germany or Portugal (if they also lose) would go out.
   261. bunyon Posted: June 23, 2021 at 03:28 PM (#6025966)
* Is "Slovak" right? Slovakian? Slovak feels derogatory.

My wife refers to herself and her family as Slovaks.

Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean it isn't derogatory.
   262. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 23, 2021 at 03:37 PM (#6025968)
Now it's pouring in Germany. The worse the conditions, the more likely Hungary holds on.
   263. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: June 23, 2021 at 03:48 PM (#6025970)
The refereeing has been superb so far this season. But I have to say, this game has very much been an exception to that. Far too card happy, and now a ridiculously soft penalty for France.
   264. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 23, 2021 at 04:13 PM (#6025976)
Would be wild if Germany losing knocked out Portugal.
   265. Ron J Posted: June 23, 2021 at 05:00 PM (#6025990)
So Germany again games the results to get their desired opponent.
   266. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 23, 2021 at 06:55 PM (#6026006)
England is favored over Germany, but it's not by even as much as normal home field advantage. Maybe that's in part due to crowd restrictions not creating full home field advantage? At any rate, with both teams struggling a bit in the group stage, they are considered to be close to even.

Current betting odds, with pre-tournament odds shown as well.


France         18.5         17.5

England        12.5         12.5
Italy          12.5         10.5
Germany        12           10

Spain          10.5         10
Netherlands     9.5         5.5
Belgium         9          11.5

Portugal        7          10

Denmark         4.5         3

Field           5


Germany, Netherlands, England, and Denmark are all on the easy side of the bracket, so their odds should have improved. All did except England, which means England is viewed as a disappointment so far.

On the harder side of the bracket, you might expect teams to stay more or less flat (confirming a spot in the KOs sends odds up slightly, but being on the harder side of the bracket sends odds back down slightly), except a slight decrease for Belgium and Portugal which have the hardest route of all. That pretty much tracks. Italy and to a lesser extent France are looking good here.

Overall I think you'd have to say (based on odds changes, anyway) that Italy and Netherlands have shown the most in the group stages, relative to expectations coming in. England and maybe Portugal have shown the least.
   267. Richard Posted: June 24, 2021 at 12:19 AM (#6026062)
If Germany play like they played last night, England might beat them.

If Germany play like they played in the other games, they will beat England.

If Gareth Southgate has to isolate for COVID, England's chances will improve.
   268. Richard Posted: June 24, 2021 at 12:27 AM (#6026064)
Major tournaments Wales have qualified for: 3
Number of times Wales have advanced from the group stage: 3

Major tournaments Scotland have qualified for: 11
Number of times Scotland have advanced from the group stage: 0
   269. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: June 24, 2021 at 06:42 AM (#6026070)
Germany, Netherlands, England, and Denmark are all on the easy side of the bracket, so their odds should have improved. All did except England, which means England is viewed as a disappointment so far.

I think every major team except for Italy has been a disappointment so far. But one thing you need to account for in your analysis is the strength of the group they were in. France, Germany, and Portugal were the only major teams that were actually in any real jeopardy of not getting out of the group phase. So you would expect them to be the biggest gainers. The others were more or less guaranteed a spot among the last 16 barring major catastrophe. So should not be expected to gain much.
   270. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 24, 2021 at 07:08 AM (#6026071)
True, but I think all of them were like 90% or more. England was I think the highest at 98%, so it's only a marginal difference. Could explain France's bump and half of Germany's bump, so Germany could be viewed as a minor disappointment, or at best flat.

Makes Portugal look even worse versus expectation.
   271. bunyon Posted: June 24, 2021 at 07:38 AM (#6026073)
Good lord. You think 24 down to 16 is bad, I just realized Copa America group play takes 10 down to 8. I’d assumed it went to four. Pointless.
   272. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: June 24, 2021 at 07:46 AM (#6026074)
If you have 10, the obvious thing to do is two groups of 5, 3 go through from each, winners get a bye.
   273. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: June 24, 2021 at 08:10 AM (#6026076)
Good lord. You think 24 down to 16 is bad, I just realized Copa America group play takes 10 down to 8. I’d assumed it went to four. Pointless.


Not a lot better but it was originally going to be 12 down to 8 but Qatar and Australia dropped out due to the 'VID.
   274. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 24, 2021 at 08:15 AM (#6026077)
I thought the 16-team Copa America Centenario was a lot of fun. I guess they can't do that every year though.
   275. bunyon Posted: June 24, 2021 at 08:54 AM (#6026081)
12 to 8 is exactly 24 to 16, so I guess so. I told my wife what the teams were playing for in a Euro game I watched and she turned it into a half hour tirade against a Welsh colleague. He just kept trying to explain and she, quite rightly, in my opinion, cut him off with, "That's stupid."

So, if the Euro went from 24 to 8, here is what we'd have:

Group winners
A Italy
B Belgium
C Netherlands
D England
E Sweden
F France

Top 2 second place teams: Austria, Spain

I suppose the TV ratings might have taken a hit losing Germany and Portugal but that would be a compelling 8 teams, I think.
   276. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 24, 2021 at 09:05 AM (#6026084)
I could maybe get on board with 24 to 8, but in the real world they would never do it. In the slightly less real world though, if they did it, they wouldn't have put all of Germany, France, and Portugal in the same group. I'm fairly certain that it was considered an acceptable arrangement this year in large part because all 3 teams still had a high chance to advance.
   277. bunyon Posted: June 24, 2021 at 09:21 AM (#6026088)
I get why Copa America is only 10. But the Euros could easily be 32. I mean, they already have qualifying to get to the group stage, right? Make it 32 going to 16 and only take the top 2. Lower Eastern Orthodox Monrovia probably won't get past the group stage but they might draw a power and keep them out. Would be great TV.
   278. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 24, 2021 at 09:33 AM (#6026089)
UEFA has scrapped the away goals rule for club competitions, starting immediately.

Be prepared for a lot more boring 2nd legs.
   279. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 24, 2021 at 09:39 AM (#6026091)
I get why Copa America is only 10. But the Euros could easily be 32. I mean, they already have qualifying to get to the group stage, right? Make it 32 going to 16 and only take the top 2. Lower Eastern Orthodox Monrovia probably won't get past the group stage but they might draw a power and keep them out. Would be great TV.
See post 59. This year, those 8 would have been Kosovo, Serbia, Northern Ireland, Ireland, Norway, Iceland, Greece, and Romania. Not as good as Austria or Poland, but for the most part not much worse than the other teams in the bottom tier of the competition this year. Also, all superior to North Macedonia, who were not going to advance but put a good showing for the most part anyway.
   280. Richard Posted: June 24, 2021 at 09:42 AM (#6026092)
Having watched 8, 16 and 24 team Euros, the 16 team 4 groups of 4 is by far the best.

I assume the idiotic Copa America format is something to do with TV money.
   281. jmurph Posted: June 24, 2021 at 09:49 AM (#6026094)
UEFA has scrapped the away goals rule for club competitions, starting immediately.

Be prepared for a lot more boring 2nd legs.

Truly, the one thing the game needs is even more minutes played for the world's best players! Let's see if we can run them all into the ground as soon as possible.

Also who doesn't love penalties deciding all the most important games?
   282. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 24, 2021 at 10:19 AM (#6026100)
To me the most frustrating parts of KOs are when the teams are level and don't really try much to score over the last 30 minutes of the second leg and in extra time. With the away goals rule this is pretty rare, but should become much more common now.
   283. bunyon Posted: June 24, 2021 at 10:20 AM (#6026101)
Did they give a reason to eliminate that rule?
   284. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 24, 2021 at 10:28 AM (#6026103)
I think the real reason is that fans of the team that goes out when goals are level always make a big fuss.

Twitter thread here though:

Statistics since the mid-1970s show a clear trend of continuous reduction in the gap between the number of home-away wins (from 61%-19% to 47%-30%) and the average number of goals per match scored at home-away (from 2.02-0.95 to 1.58-1.15) in men’s competitions.
The implication is you don't need to encourage away teams to be adventurous anymore. While that may be in part or even mostly true, it's mostly a historic artifact. The main benefit of the away goals rule today is breaking ties, and thereby encouraging the trailing team, whether they are home or away, to be adventurous in the 180 minutes of regular time.

   285. jmurph Posted: June 24, 2021 at 10:52 AM (#6026107)
I suspect a round of commercials between the end of regular time and extra time was part of the thinking, too.
   286. Mefisto Posted: June 24, 2021 at 01:52 PM (#6026125)
As Mike Goodman suggested, this seems to be a case where a rule worked so now they decide they don't need the rule anymore.

If you think this reasoning is insane, try reading some Supreme Court opinions sometime.
   287. jmurph Posted: June 25, 2021 at 08:51 AM (#6026277)
Credible places seem to be reporting that Manchester City are in for Grealish for a record 100 million pounds. That's... a lot. But he's very good and English, so I see how this could happen.

I'm guessing that also might mean the Bernardo transfer rumors might be legit?
   288. spivey 2 Posted: June 25, 2021 at 09:58 AM (#6026283)
Grealish is worth that kind of money, imo, I just question if he's really needed. Sterling is only 26 (wild!). Mahrez is getting up there, but Grealish seems to operate best on the LW or in the little in between space between traditional LW and striker positions, where Foden and KDB can often take up position.

Sterling had a bit of a down year, but he's a goal and assist machine, and works very hard.

Mahrez is getting up in age, but neither Sterling or Grealish seem at their best on the RW. I guess if you're City you just acquire the talent and figure it out after the fact.

Losing Bernardo will hurt. He does a lot of dirty work for the team. Gundo isn't getting any younger, either. I feel like City need another box-to-box midfielder.
   289. jmurph Posted: June 25, 2021 at 10:01 AM (#6026286)
Losing Bernardo will hurt. He does a lot of dirty work for the team. Gundo isn't getting any younger, either. I feel like City need another box-to-box midfielder.

Yeah I agree with all of this.

Also it's possible these rumors are fake, other takes are that "it would take at least 100 million but City hasn't made contact yet." As always, global soccer reporting is terrible.
   290. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 26, 2021 at 08:19 AM (#6026444)
current betting odds (percentage chance) to advance
Denmark       68
Italy         81

Netherlands   73
Belgium       55

Spain         74
France        79

England       53
Sweden        57



   291. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 26, 2021 at 01:17 PM (#6026452)
One team in each group this year has had better xG than their opponents in all games. Mostly no surprises (Italy, Netherlands, England, Spain, Germany) unless you count Germany. Note France also lost the xG battle to France if you count penalties towards xG, so France has not exactly looked dominant.

The last one is, of course, Denmark (and not Belgium). Except for a few short stretches, Denmark has dominated every game they've played so far. If they hold on today they won't be big underdogs to Netherlands. Don't count them out to reach the final.
   292. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 26, 2021 at 01:24 PM (#6026453)
2-0 in soccer games. Announcers keep saying "next goal changes everything" for these teams, and is "next goal is all important". Now, of course statistically this is not the least bit true. From the perspective of fan excitement and interest in the game of course it is very true, as a 1 goal lead even for the last 10 minutes can be very compelling while a 3-goal lead is not. As usual, announcers are pretending the fan's perspective is the same as the players.

In reality of course more likely than not there won't be any more goals, at least until it's too late to make any real difference from anyone's perspective.
   293. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 26, 2021 at 01:46 PM (#6026455)
Wales, on the other hand, have played one good game this tournament, against Turkey who turned out to be quite woeful. Aside from Croatia, Wales had the lowest xGD of any team coming into the KO round. They haven't been very good this tournament and were justifiably pretty big underdogs coming in.
   294. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 26, 2021 at 03:42 PM (#6026463)
Looking at the odds from above and adjusting for difficulty of draw, the perceived order coming into the KOs was probably:

France
Italy
England/Germany/Belgium
Spain
Portugal
Netherlands

The next 8 were probably:
Denmark
Switzerland
Croatia
Sweden
Czech Republic
Wales
Austria
Ukraine
   295. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 26, 2021 at 04:01 PM (#6026465)
Also, it's not obvious from the above, but Denmark was considered easily the 9th best team in the tournament, even without Eriksen.
   296. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 26, 2021 at 04:24 PM (#6026467)
I know it sucks to have a goal scored against you that might not have been deserved, but Wales were nowhere near as good as Denmark today, and they didn't lose because of bad reffing. They should stop complaining.

Austria has played really well this second half, and now have taken the lead (though pending VAR... and it was a tight offside so no goal.)

And now a possible penalty in favor of Austria called off via offside. Two close offside calls--either one of them goes the other way and Italy is probably losing right now. The second half hasn't been all Austria, but Austria's been the clear better team. Of course Austria did virtually nothing in the first half, so on balance the game has still favored Italy but it's pretty close at this point.

Even if Italy pulls this one out, their stock will take a big hit, since a lot of it was based on their very good group performances and today's tepid performance negates a lot of that.
   297. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 26, 2021 at 05:16 PM (#6026472)
The dam burst in extra time. Italy came out fast, got a couple chances and scored right away. Now another one and it's really over. Italy's next game should be very interesting, against the winner of Belgium/Portugal.
   298. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 27, 2021 at 12:45 PM (#6026544)
The Netherlands seem to be the more dangerous team, but they can't turn their dangerous possession into good shots, or almost any shots. Biggest two chances probably fell to Czech Republic, and they could easily be winning right now.

I wouldn't bet on Czech Republic right now, but don't count them out either.
   299. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 27, 2021 at 12:55 PM (#6026545)
Netherlands also had two huge chances they contrived to miss, but both were offside anyway.
   300. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 27, 2021 at 01:09 PM (#6026546)
Lovren's penalty and yellow against this same Czech team was to me 100% deserved (and I realize that's a minority view)/ His arms were high, over the shoulder and swinging backwards directly to create physical space from the opposing players. Contact in the face on a play like that should be automatic foul and yellow.

This Dumphries yellow also involved an arm to the face on a high ball, but it was nothing like the Lovren play and the yellow was undeserved. (Also not in the box, so calling a foul was not controversial though it was barely even a foul.) Dumphries arm came up early rather than late and was not swinging backwards, elbow first, to create space.
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