Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Wednesday, June 02, 2021

OT Soccer Thread - In Which Euro 2020 Is Played in 2021

With the club season done it’s on to what is going to be a more normal summer than last year.  Bunch of stuff that was supposed to get played last year, bunch of stuff that was supposed to be played this year moves to next year.

Euro 2020 - June 11 - July 11
Gold Cup - July 10 - August 1
Copa America 2020 - June 13 - July 10 - due to COVID issues in host Argentina the tournament has been moved to a safer location…Brazil.  Presumably the next option is an infectious disease ward of a hospital.
2020 Olympics Men - July 22 - August 7
2020 Olympics Women - July 21 - August 6
CONCACAF Nations League Semi-Final and Final - June 3 and June 6
CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying - June 12 and June 15 - Winners advance to the Octagon, the Hexagon is dead, long live the Hexagon.
2021-22 Champions League - June 22 Preliminary Round, August 26 Group Stage Draw
2021-22 Europa League - Third Qualifying Round August 5, schedule is weird, I can’t find details of the previous two rounds but presumably on a similar schedule to the Champions League
2021-22 Europa Conference - First Qualifying Round July 8
2021 Women’s Euros - Postponed to 2022 (I’ll defer to others on the women’s game as I don’t follow closely enough to know what other big tournaments there are)

Jose Has Absurd Goosebump Arms Posted: June 02, 2021 at 08:55 AM | 865 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off topic, soccer

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 5 of 9 pages ‹ First  < 3 4 5 6 7 >  Last ›
   401. bunyon Posted: June 29, 2021 at 03:08 PM (#6026869)
flip
   402. bunyon Posted: June 29, 2021 at 03:13 PM (#6026872)
Seems impossible to fire a guy because you don’t like his style if he’s winning though, right?
   403. Jose Has Absurd Goosebump Arms Posted: June 29, 2021 at 03:20 PM (#6026875)
They've been quite lucky with drawing opponents, and to a much lesser extent, a bit lucky with results.


No question on the opponents. But of course one reason they got lucky with opponents is because some other national teams' managers saw their squads eliminated.

I think it's fair to criticize


Absolutely. No one is above criticism. It just seems to me that with the English manager in particular the default position is criticism (and again, not just here at all).

it's basically one of the most enjoyable things about being a fan anyway, so there's that too.


See for me it's not. I find the kneejerk criticism of managers/coaches* fairly uninteresting most of the time.

* I feel generally the same regarding umpires and referees.
   404. Ron J Posted: June 29, 2021 at 03:21 PM (#6026876)
#402 It's happened before. Though I'd be hard pressed to name a national coach that this has happened to. And I'd expect somebody high profile was already lined up if this happened.

Can't imagine Southgate is in any danger though.
   405. bunyon Posted: June 29, 2021 at 03:43 PM (#6026884)
Man, the two espn guys doing the Sweden game are awful.
   406. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 29, 2021 at 04:11 PM (#6026893)
England's current odds of winning the tournament is about 30%, with odds of making the final 53% or so. Effective odds of winning the final if they get there is about 56%, or about 54% if you take out Switzerland. That's probably below home field advantage, meaning this particular England under Southgate is considered to be slightly worse than Italy and Spain, and slightly better than current Belgium.

Current ranking of teams, including correction for home field advantage. The first three are very close, and England might be favored right now at Wembley over Italy.

Italy
Spain
England
Belgium
Denmark
Switzerland
Sweden
Czech Republic
Ukraine
   407. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 29, 2021 at 05:04 PM (#6026897)
Wow. Pretty harsh call in some ways, since Danielson didn't seem to have any forward momentum on the kick. Still, the contact that was made usually gets you a red, but this time it looked like all the force came from the opponent. Now Sweden, who looked like the stronger team, will just want to hold on for penalties.
   408. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 29, 2021 at 05:25 PM (#6026903)
That red card is really interesting. It gets a red 90% of the time, and probably deserves a red. But it still looks way worse than it was, and realistically could happen to any defender in any game, given some sloppy play and a lot of bad luck. The defender had his leg up and out in a very dangerous position, but there seemed to be no intent and his body and spiking leg had virtually no forward momentum. Almost all the force of the contact was created by the guy who got spiked.

Still a red, but not a horrendous play by the defender.
   409. I am going to be Frank Posted: June 29, 2021 at 05:26 PM (#6026904)
I know he got a goal today, but Kane looked substandard and hasn't looked good the whole tourney.
   410. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 29, 2021 at 05:34 PM (#6026907)
Sweden can't hold on. Goal in extra time extra time.

Red card was probably another break for England, as who knows if Southgate's approach would ever break down this defensive Swedish team. England matches up much better against Ukraine, and they are also just probably inferior to Sweden.
   411. spivey 2 Posted: June 29, 2021 at 05:39 PM (#6026908)
Levy is just making one #### up after another these days, but Kane's value will never be higher than it is now. His value a year ago was also lower than it is right now. Selling him and all of the dead wood should be able to get us 200-250 million that could set us up to contend for CL at least in 2022-23, accounting for some time for the new players to get settled. Of course, I'm sure he'll wait a year to sell Kane, Kane will have injuries, teams won't want to pay more than 70 million, and the likes of Ben Davies, Harry Winks, and Sissoko will never be sold because we're holding out for unreasonable deals.
   412. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 29, 2021 at 06:52 PM (#6026918)
Pre-tournament and current odds.

England        30.5      12.5
Spain          22.5      10 
Italy          18.5      10.5
Belgium        11.5      11.5

Denmark         8        3 
Switzerland     3.5      1.5
Czech Republic  3        0.5
Ukraine         2.5      0.5


Belgium got hit with the double whammy. They, along with Switzerland and Italy, have the hardest path, and they also have gone way down in expectation due to bad play and injuries.

Every other team's odds are way up versus pre-tournament.



   413. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 29, 2021 at 07:09 PM (#6026919)
Odds for the QFs:
Spain       72
Italy       58
Denmark     62
England     81

England's 81% chance matches the highest in the KOs so far: France/Switzerland.
   414. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: June 29, 2021 at 08:01 PM (#6026929)
Man, the two espn guys doing the Sweden game are awful.

They are by far the worst commentary team this tournament.
   415. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 29, 2021 at 08:14 PM (#6026933)
Oh yeah I almost always try to avoid ESPN, as their commentaters are usually bad. I had it on for a slit second and thought I heard Ale, which was a big no for me.
   416. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: June 29, 2021 at 08:27 PM (#6026937)
And I am just sitting here like 'I mean I have never cared for Jonathan Pearce much, but that seems like a huge overreaction...'
   417. Textbook Editor Posted: June 29, 2021 at 09:39 PM (#6026949)
They are by far the worst commentary team this tournament.


Alejandro Moreno spent like 5 minutes (probably more) just having a go at Isak for not being (I guess) Moreno's idea of what a striker should be... completely ignoring (from my perspective) that all the time Isak was spending on the right and around the 18 was drawing defenders leaning his way, and thus opening up space on the left all game long for Sweden.

Did Isak have a great game? No. Did he do more useful things (aside from Kane's goal) than Kane did in his game? I'd say yes.

Moreno's constant whining about him sounded a bit like those pundits who like to go after Sterling... and you probably know where I'm going when I make that comparison. The PBP guy also sounds like he wants to be calling a hockey game instead of a soccer game. Awful. I hope this is the last we've heard of that team.
   418. Textbook Editor Posted: June 29, 2021 at 09:47 PM (#6026953)
And while this is a really late update on Torquay United... They fell short of promotion, but not without drama. Down 1-0 in injury time of regulation, they brought the keeper up... and he actually scored with a header to send it into extra time. It goes to penalties, and the Torquay keeper saves the first 2... while Torquay miss and hit the woodwork with their first two. It goes to sudden death and Torquay miss their last one. Another season in the National League for the Gulls.

Have to say, aside from the disappointment, listening to the Torquay United radio feed for the final was as hysterical as I thought it would be. The local crew damn near lost their minds when the keeper scored that header--it was like listening to a local college radio team call a game winning shot to send the school to the NCAAs. Wonderful.

England have a clear path to the final, yes, but the next two teams are not nearly going to even attempt attacking the way Germany tried to, and that's a different kind of problem for Southgate to solve. If he goes with today's lineup in the QF and SF, they both may well end 0-0 going to penalties, as I'm sure Ukraine will be more than happy to cede the bulk of possession.

A Denmark-Switzerland final would be too much fun to actually happen, right?
   419. bunyon Posted: June 29, 2021 at 09:48 PM (#6026954)
How are you guys watching?

Im not sure the PBP guy ever did PBP. He read ads, recited facts everyone already knows about the tournament and every other minute announced that they were playing for a spot in the quarterfinals. And read more ads.

Would love an alternative as I just turned the sound off, which helped a lot.
   420. Richard Posted: June 29, 2021 at 09:54 PM (#6026955)
England have a clear path to the final, yes, but the next two teams are not nearly going to even attempt attacking the way Germany tried to, and that's a different kind of problem for Southgate to solve. If he goes with today's lineup in the QF and SF, they both may well end 0-0 going to penalties, as I'm sure Ukraine will be more than happy to cede the bulk of possession.


From what I have seen of Ukraine (admittedly not last night's game) they do not have the defence to play for a 0-0 draw.

England were marginally the better side last night, I felt. Germany were very flat in the second half. That miss at 1-0 buried them. England are never going to have a better chance of reaching the final.
   421. Mefisto Posted: June 30, 2021 at 09:27 AM (#6027012)
The Telegraph reports that Spurs are going to hire Nuno as the new manager. I look forward to Spurs being as exciting to watch as Wolves.
   422. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 30, 2021 at 03:41 PM (#6027051)
I'm trying to be forgiving about the English media's sudden lauding of Southgate, considering England's poor KO history in major competitions. You'd be forgiven if you didn't see the game and thought England pulled off some sort of masterpiece, based on the media response and player ratings, etc.


England didn't play badly but they didn't play that well either, and there was absolutely nothing special about what Southgate did. As an English fan though, I guess you happily take it as it's far better than what you are used to! I wish the media was a little more realistic about it. To be fair, the Marcotti/Laurens podcast was very level headed about it, so there is some rational discourse around, though it's a bit hard to find.

Is England the more talented team than Germany (serious question...)? I think people feel that way but the odds suggested they were about equal, only given a slight edge due to playing at home. If they are the more talented team, then oddsmakers may be marking them down a bit due to the perceived substandard managing.
   423. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: June 30, 2021 at 04:47 PM (#6027067)
The funny thing is that looking at the response in the German media. The ratings for German players were abysmal, and there has been no shortage of reversing the bus back and forth over Löw's long dead body. As well as a pretty much universal opinion that the loss was fully deserved.

It's a refreshing change for me, being more optimistic about the German team than the Germans appear to be. I do think England is slightly more talented than Germany right now*, and slightly outplayed them on the day. But it is not a massive difference, and Germany has no shortage of young players that look like they could be special. Part of my issues with Southgate, and part of why I suspect the betting markets shaded towards Germany, is that he doesn't actually do a good job of getting the best talent on the pitch. The other complaint I have (though it is hardly restricted to only Southgate), is that he and others are massively underutilising substitutions. With 5 subs, pretty much every team should be bringing on 3-4 sets of fresh legs around the hour mark. It's like letting a tired starting pitcher throw into the 8th inning, when you could have a RP come in fresh and throw 98. Sure, leave one or two subs so you can respond to changes in the game situation. But there is really no reason not to sub way more and way earlier than we are seeing. Like you can't pocket leftover subs for later. Use them or lose them.

*Not just a reflection of that match. 6-0 loss to Spain, 2-1 loss to North Macedonia, 2-2 draw against Hungary, finished 4th in the World Cup in what was honestly a pretty weak group. The performance has been pretty underwhelming, and I think there is a bit more name recognition than there is real talent right now.
   424. Mefisto Posted: June 30, 2021 at 05:13 PM (#6027074)
With 5 subs, pretty much every team should be bringing on 3-4 sets of fresh legs around the hour mark.


This.
   425. Mefisto Posted: June 30, 2021 at 05:53 PM (#6027085)
In fact, it would make sense for England to start a new front line against Ukraine; they have the talent to do that. I'd probably rest some others: Chilwell could start at left back, they have 4 right backs to choose from, and Henderson could start instead of Phillips.
   426. Richard Posted: July 01, 2021 at 12:10 AM (#6027157)
It’s the quarter finals. England shouldn’t be resting anyone. They should be playing their best team. There are at most 3 games to go. No need for “rest”.

Henderson for Phillips would in particular be a retrograde step.
   427. Mefisto Posted: July 01, 2021 at 09:27 AM (#6027182)
Ukraine isn't that good, and England have plenty of good players.
   428. Richard Posted: July 01, 2021 at 10:02 AM (#6027189)
Ukraine are not as good as England but they have a good goalkeeper and some decent forwards. The game is not a foregone conclusion and Southgate should (and will) pick what he sees as his first choice side.
   429. Jose Has Absurd Goosebump Arms Posted: July 01, 2021 at 10:23 AM (#6027192)
Yeah you don't #### around with the quarterfinal of a major tournament. Win today (well, Saturday) and worry about tomorrow, tomorrow.
   430. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 01, 2021 at 10:32 AM (#6027196)
Ukraine are not as good as England but they have a good goalkeeper and some decent forwards. The game is not a foregone conclusion and Southgate should (and will) pick what he sees as his first choice side.
This is right. England should beat Ukraine regardless but 1/5 chance is nothing to sneeze at.

The mitigating point is that maybe Southgate has not been starting his strongest lineup anyway, so some changes could be beneficial.
   431. Mefisto Posted: July 01, 2021 at 11:50 AM (#6027210)
I really strongly disagree with you all. The players have played a very long season, this tournament involves a lot of additional minutes, Southgate hasn't rotated his roster much yet, and Ukraine is the weakest team they will play. Plus he has players on yellows who risk missing the semifinal if they pick up another. It would be one thing if England lacked depth, but they don't. They have a real advantage over most teams in the tournament because they are deep, especially at certain positions. Does anyone really believe that the attack would suffer if the frontline consisted of Rashford, Foden, and Sancho? That Grealish shouldn't start?
   432. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 01, 2021 at 12:00 PM (#6027212)
Those are two or three separate points: Whether to rest starters due to injury or yellow accumulation, and whether playing another front line would be any worse for their chances.

On the second, I agree that it's a perfect time to rotate because I don't think Southgate is optimizing anyway.

On the first it's a harder question. It depends on how tired the players are and how volatile they are playing on a yellow. The 4 players with yellows are: Kalvin Phillips, Declan Rice, Phil Foden and Harry Maguire. Foden hasn't been starting anyway (though should he be...), and maybe they don't need both holding midfielders in this game and could start someone else in place of one of them in midfield. Maguire is in some ways the hardest case but he has just come back from injury so maybe he could use a rest as well.
   433. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 01, 2021 at 12:56 PM (#6027228)
Supposedly Pogba was trying to push for a 4th goal with France up 2 goals and 10 minutes left, which is one of the reasons some of the other French players were upset with him after the game.

Assuming this is true, maybe you take the bad with the good with Pogba, but at the very least I'd sure want to sub him out in those situations if I were managing.

edit: on the third goal he did what he has done so many times for United--dawdle on the ball in a dangerous spot in midfield long enough to be dispossessed leading to a break. He only dawdled a little, so you could forgive him a tad. Then again, at such a critical moment any dawdling is too much.

He probably couldn't have done anything about the second goal, but he was lazy in getting back into defense and if the cross had come in differently he was not in position to help with the other attackers in the box (the ones that the ball didn't end up coming to), when he could have been.

Any of these plays can happen to any player at any time, and sometimes Pogba takes too much crap. On the other hand, generally speaking you probably want Pogba in when you are chasing a lead or up against a weaker side determined to defend, not when you are protecting a lead late. It doesn't help if his own teammates are yelling at him to play differently in these moments.
   434. Mefisto Posted: July 01, 2021 at 02:01 PM (#6027236)
Pogba is a very frustrating player. His ability to pick a pass is fantastic. But he can't/won't play defense and he gets stripped of the ball in dangerous places all the time.
   435. Mefisto Posted: July 01, 2021 at 02:01 PM (#6027237)
Deleted double post.
   436. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 01, 2021 at 02:48 PM (#6027249)
Just noticed that this article references ESPN's SPI (which itself does not seem to be easy to find). They give wildly different odds than betting odds.

Current betting odds v SPI

England        31.5       24 
Spain          23.5       29
Italy          17.5       10 
Belgium        11.5       13

Denmark         8         15
Switzerland     3          5
Czech Republic  3          4
Ukraine         2          2


SPI is all over the map on these teams. Basically SPI loves Spain, likes Belgium, dislikes England and doesn't much like Italy. They also think Denmark is close to as good as England, just without home field advantage. They also love Switzerland, since they are given higher odds despite facing off against Spain, who they also love.

   437. Jose Has Absurd Goosebump Arms Posted: July 01, 2021 at 02:53 PM (#6027253)
They also love Switzerland, since they are given higher odds despite facing off against Spain, who they also love.


I know nothing about betting odds so take this for what it's worth. But does Spain's odds increasing drag Switzerland with it? Basically the theory is that Switzerland isn't like to beat Spain but if they do, and Spain are such a big favorite, by extension Switzerland is more likely to win it?
   438. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 01, 2021 at 02:55 PM (#6027254)
QF matchups betting odds v SPI:

Spain       74       72
Italy       57       47
Denmark     61       66
England     81       71
   439. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 01, 2021 at 03:04 PM (#6027256)
I know nothing about betting odds so take this for what it's worth. But does Spain's odds increasing drag Switzerland with it? Basically the theory is that Switzerland isn't like to beat Spain but if they do, and Spain are such a big favorite, by extension Switzerland is more likely to win it?
Oh. I generally wouldn't think it would have a big effect, but it's a very good question.

I've thought about this with how you would run monte carlo simulations. For example, between each round of your simulation, do you take into account the simulated result of the last round and revalue the talent level of the team (basically, by using the info provided by the result)? Doing it that way there is much more drift and a wider range of results, probably leading to slightly more parity.

I think the right way to do it is to use a probability function for how "good" a team is, and run 10,000 simulations (or whatever) using a randomly chosen value using the probability density function for that team. So for example, if Spain is rated 90, and Switzerland rated 70, then 5% of the time (say) Switzerland is really a 75 and 5% of the time Spain is really an 85. One of the many simulations will capture this scenario. Then, don't revalue the teams between rounds of your simulation. Switzerland would have been more likely to advance in one of the scenarios where they were better than average for your simulation (i.e., above 70) and Spain worse (i.e., below 90). The next round would already take into account this revised info.

Switzerland was given 19% chance to beat France, and are now being given a 26% chance to beat Spain, who is considered to be quite a but weaker than France, so there can't be too much effect in reality, though there must be some. Also Belgium beat Portugal but saw their stock go down anyway, so it's not always one direction.

edit: also, if SPI really only considered Spain better and not Switzerland, then they should have Spain winning their matchup tomorrow more often than betting odds, rather than slightly less often. So that's definitely not the whole story.
   440. smileyy Posted: July 01, 2021 at 10:22 PM (#6027335)
"LFG" (available on HBO Max) is a great documentary about the USWNT's fight for equal pay to the men. It's pretty bullshit that they aren't paid the same, seeing how they bring in more money for USSF than the men do.
   441. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 02, 2021 at 07:38 AM (#6027366)
Turns out soccer 3-way moneyline soccer bets (w/l/d) are based on 90 minutes of play plus stoppage time only.

England odds against Ukraine are 68.5% win, 10% loss, and 21.5% draw after 90. 81% chance to advance, meaning if it goes to extras at all, England is only about 60% chance to advance. Most of that must be for the 30 minutes of extra time, so penalties must be very close to 50/50.

I know teams get tired in extras, but the better teams should really be pushing the action heavily. Bring on subs and make them run. There's no excuse for not using all of your subs in a game like that. It's absolutely the time for the better team to be playing for the win, and not playing "not to lose". Every minute that goes by without a score is a victory for the weaker team.

Switzerland used all 6 subs, 5 between minutes 73 and 87, and one in the 97th minute. France subbed in Coman at halftime, then only substituted twice more through 94 minutes. They sat on 3 subs until the 111th minute, at which point they subbed out Coman. Last two subs went unused and they lost on penalties. (WTF?) That's inexcusable for a team that has so much if a talent advantage.

In the Europa final, United basically didn't use their subs until very late. That's also inexcusable, but a little less so, since their subs were not that great and they didn't have a massive talent advantage over Villarreal (they had an advantage, just not nearly to the same degree as France versus Switzerland).

Spain and Croatia used all their subs--5 in regular time and Spain's last one in the 102nd minute when they had just gone up a goal.
Italy used 4 subs in regular time and 1 halfway through extra time. Austria waited until they were down 2 in extra time before making their third sub. That was probably not too smart.
   442. bunyon Posted: July 02, 2021 at 11:13 AM (#6027389)
I've long thought that instead of PKs, they should do a mandatory substitution of 9 of the 11 and play two 30 minute halves. Only then go to PKs. Favor the deeper team. For some reason, soccer lovers really, really, really hate the idea of substitutions. I've had (here and elsewhere) tell me that PKs are more "real soccer" than playing with a lot of subs. I find it bizarre but concede I'm in the minority. But I think it goes to coach think. They really don't think about subs rationally, I don't think.

   443. Mefisto Posted: July 02, 2021 at 11:39 AM (#6027392)
It seems to me that my logic for rotating players to start a game is the same logic that suggests using subs in extra time.
   444. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 02, 2021 at 12:49 PM (#6027399)
Anything would be better than penalties. I like the idea of making the whole bench play! That'll never happen though.
   445. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 02, 2021 at 12:52 PM (#6027400)
It seems to me that my logic for rotating players to start a game is the same logic that suggests using subs in extra time.
You mean tiredness? Sort of, but players are visibly dead on their feet in most extra time games. That's not quite the same as general overuse.

I think the average days between games is 5 or 6 in this tournament, so while overuse can certainly be a factor in some ways it's not quite as severe as it can be at times during the club season.
   446. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 02, 2021 at 01:27 PM (#6027408)
Switzerland got lucky there, but Spain has not dominated this game the way you'd want them to to guarantee a win. The game has been much closer than Spain would want, at least the parts I saw in the second half, and now Spain has paid for it.
   447. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 02, 2021 at 01:33 PM (#6027409)
oh my. Switzerland is done.

edit: no overrule. no spiking, but way late, dangerous, and a lot of momentum. Because the studs weren't up you often see those as just yellows, but to be fair it was quite dangerous.
edit2: it's basically the opposite of the red card that killed sweden, which was all studs up spike but no momeentum at all.

shame, as I don't see how Switzerland holds off Spain for 45 minutes down a man. That seems impossible.
   448. bunyon Posted: July 02, 2021 at 01:34 PM (#6027410)
I clearly don't understand the difference between a good tackle, a foul, a yellow card and a red. They all look pretty much the same to me.
   449. Random Transaction Generator Posted: July 02, 2021 at 01:36 PM (#6027411)
That tackle was a red because the bottom of his feet went directly into the leg of the defender. He spiked him hard.
   450. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: July 02, 2021 at 01:37 PM (#6027412)
That was a really stupid challenge. Not the most egregious or anything, and a red is a little harsh (but totally defensible)... but just so unnecessary. Why would you do that?
   451. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 02, 2021 at 01:38 PM (#6027413)
I didn't see him get spiked at all. did that happen? I'll find a replay.
   452. bunyon Posted: July 02, 2021 at 01:38 PM (#6027414)
So is it just random then? He kicked the ball. And your feet are involved in that. So if I kick the ball and my spikes get the guy it's a red regardless of intent? I mean...okay, if that's the rule. But, geez, it seems impossible to control that.
   453. Random Transaction Generator Posted: July 02, 2021 at 01:40 PM (#6027415)
I thought the heel of his lead foot drove right into the defenders leg.
   454. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 02, 2021 at 01:42 PM (#6027416)
Replay is here. He didn't get spiked. it's possible the studs of his other foot just barely touched his leg, but the only real contact came from the foot that took out his leg, and that was the top of the foot.
   455. Mefisto Posted: July 02, 2021 at 01:42 PM (#6027417)
I'm with RTG. That red was deserved. Not at all the worst tackle, but bad enough. And yes, his studs drove into the leg (and worse, the trailing leg sandwiched him; could easily have broken his leg).

ETA: "Drove" may be a bit harsh, but I thought there was clear contact between studs and leg.
   456. Richard Posted: July 02, 2021 at 01:44 PM (#6027418)
That’s not a red. It’s a typical poor Michael Oliver decision. The ball was there to be cleared and he cleared it. No stud contact to speak of.
   457. bunyon Posted: July 02, 2021 at 01:45 PM (#6027419)
I haven't seen a single sliding tackle that couldn't have broken a leg or blown up a knee.
   458. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 02, 2021 at 01:45 PM (#6027420)
Also, it's true he got the ball, but only because it was kicked in his direction after the offensive player made contact with it. The Swiss player was way late on the challenge and came in hard with a lot of momentum all the way through the Spanish player's position. I don't think those are usually given as reds, but it's hard to complain too much since it was dangerous and late.
   459. Richard Posted: July 02, 2021 at 01:46 PM (#6027421)
Dare I say it but Spain were fine until their two substitutions early in the second half.

Hard to bet against them now though.
   460. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 02, 2021 at 01:47 PM (#6027422)
his studs drove into the leg
This is highly misleading. The trailing leg is the only thing that made any real contact.
   461. Random Transaction Generator Posted: July 02, 2021 at 01:47 PM (#6027423)
If you freeze frame it at 0:29 seconds, you can see the lead foot is spikes first into the shins.

That's a red.
   462. bunyon Posted: July 02, 2021 at 01:47 PM (#6027424)
It's likely I don't credit enough how much control and skill players have executing tackles.

To me, it looks like big, fast men sliding into another's legs pretty much every time.
   463. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: July 02, 2021 at 01:49 PM (#6027426)
FWIW, "getting the ball" is not a defence to dangerous play. That was at minimum a yellow, whether he got a foot on the ball or not.
   464. Mefisto Posted: July 02, 2021 at 01:53 PM (#6027427)
@460: I edited the word "drove" after I made the original comment. But 461 shows there was contact.
   465. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 02, 2021 at 01:59 PM (#6027429)
Yeah there definitely was contact with the heel. And it's actually hard to tell how much, but maybe not too much. One thing that is not forgivable is that he seemed to leave his heel there to make contact after he knew he was going to be too late to get the ball. It seems like had he completed his initial kicking motion his front foot would have cleared in front of the Spanish player.

I'm fine with a red there. I still think a red is given for the play maybe less than half the time, but it was for sure dangerous and unnecessary, and those probably should be the most important considerations.
   466. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: July 02, 2021 at 02:04 PM (#6027433)
Could have easily been a second yellow for Widmer there.
   467. Jose Has Absurd Goosebump Arms Posted: July 02, 2021 at 02:05 PM (#6027434)
Switzerland are hanging in there but the entire extra time has been played basically in their penalty box. Hard to believe Spain won't score eventually.
   468. Random Transaction Generator Posted: July 02, 2021 at 02:07 PM (#6027435)
That hit the Swiss keeper in the face, right?

Wow.
   469. Ron J Posted: July 02, 2021 at 02:07 PM (#6027436)
The guy doing the commentary for the Guardian is going out on a limb and is predicting that Roy Keane (and Graeme Souness and Nigel De Jong) will be "withering in their criticism of Oliver’s decision."

   470. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 02, 2021 at 02:14 PM (#6027440)
Amusing how the commentators are speculating that Switzerland "might be' trying to hold on until penalties.
   471. Ron J Posted: July 02, 2021 at 02:15 PM (#6027441)
If they do make it to penalties somehow, Spain has missed their last 5.

I'm doubtful that means anything but still. Teeny hope and all that.
   472. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 02, 2021 at 02:19 PM (#6027442)
Switzerland only has 4 players that started the game still playing. The goalkeeper, the two central defenders, and the left back.
   473. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 02, 2021 at 02:23 PM (#6027444)
Why wait until the last 10 minutes to make your final subs? It's not like Thiago is chopped liver.
   474. bunyon Posted: July 02, 2021 at 02:24 PM (#6027446)
How has Spain not scored?!
   475. Ron J Posted: July 02, 2021 at 02:27 PM (#6027448)
Always one more pass to make?

I remember that British commentators of 20 years ago hated it any time a player with the goal in sight did not try a shot.
   476. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 02, 2021 at 02:33 PM (#6027449)
Current odds are right around 50/50, maybe 52/48 to Spain based on the latest.

edit: no, at least pre coin-toss it was right around 50/50. That residual odds must have been for some time left in the 120.
edit2: it was about 55/45 after Spain won the toss.
   477. Random Transaction Generator Posted: July 02, 2021 at 02:43 PM (#6027451)
Wow. The whole mood switched in the span of 3 kicks.
   478. Ron J Posted: July 02, 2021 at 02:43 PM (#6027452)
Not a distinguished set of penalties by either side. I think Sommer should feel let down.
   479. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 02, 2021 at 02:47 PM (#6027453)
Considering these are coinflips, it's hard to feel like Switzerland was hard done by, since they won one just a few days ago.

Let's also not forget that as part of Croatia's run in the world cup they won 2 penalty shootouts on top of everything else, so were quite fortunate.
   480. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 02, 2021 at 02:51 PM (#6027454)
No team has ever won two penalty shootouts in a single European championship. There are more rounds now so it's likely to happen starting this year.

It's only happened twice in the World Cup. Croatia in 2018 and Argentina in 1990.
   481. Jose Has Absurd Goosebump Arms Posted: July 02, 2021 at 02:57 PM (#6027456)
Why wait until the last 10 minutes to make your final subs? It's not like Thiago is chopped liver.


Does it make sense to wait just to make sure no one cramps up or gets injured? And presumably Spain was a bit fresher playing against 10 men. Of course they made two subs in the final 10 minutes so presumably had one to give a bit earlier if they wanted to.
   482. bunyon Posted: July 02, 2021 at 03:03 PM (#6027459)
480: no one has ever lost more than one either. ;)
   483. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: July 02, 2021 at 03:26 PM (#6027461)
Just wait until we go to double-elimination!
   484. SoSH U at work Posted: July 02, 2021 at 03:30 PM (#6027462)

480: no one has ever lost more than one either. ;)


It could happen in the third-place game. Netherlands lost in PKs in 2014 in the semifinals, but went down meekly in the consolation contest.
   485. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 02, 2021 at 03:48 PM (#6027467)
Looked like a dive. And even if it wasn't that should never be given, as the offensive player was doing nothing but looking for the penalty there.

Shove was very naive though. So stupid. Lovrenish.

Hate the call so much.
   486. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: July 02, 2021 at 03:49 PM (#6027468)
Stupid penalty to concede, lots of work from that position to create a good chance still, but a definite penalty for me.
   487. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: July 02, 2021 at 04:21 PM (#6027473)
How did Lukaku miss?
   488. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 02, 2021 at 04:23 PM (#6027474)
Just a bad miscue at the wrong time, right into the defender.
   489. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 02, 2021 at 04:27 PM (#6027476)
Italy gave up the silly penalty and the huge Lukaku miss, but very little else. Their quick passing and energetic offense is a lot of fun to watch. They don't play like a team with a lead.
   490. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: July 02, 2021 at 04:30 PM (#6027477)
Italy gave up the silly penalty and the huge Lukaku miss, but very little else. Their quick passing and energetic offense is a lot of fun to watch. They don't play like a team with a lead.

Well they just gave up another huge chance. All from the run from the fresh legs of Mertens who had come on a minute earlier.
   491. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 02, 2021 at 04:35 PM (#6027478)
I would call that a half chance. The pass in to Lukaku was 3/4 blocked such that it almost fell perfectly, which was pretty lucky (except, too high, so not so lucky after all). The pass seemed unlikely to go through to Lukaku without the block. Also no shot of course.
   492. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 02, 2021 at 04:47 PM (#6027479)
Doku looks so sharp and lively late, especially where everyone is tiring.
   493. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 02, 2021 at 04:54 PM (#6027480)
ok now the gamesmanship version of Italy has come out, and it's not pretty any more.
   494. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 02, 2021 at 04:58 PM (#6027481)
For all Italy's excited play, they gave up only 4 shots (5 if you include the penalty) after going up 2-0. Lukaku really should have scored the one big chance though.
   495. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 02, 2021 at 05:08 PM (#6027483)
England is now 30% to win the tournament, and about 58% to make the final, so probably would be even against Italy and slight favorites over Spain in the final. Reversing home field advantage, teams still appear to be ranked the same as before:

Italy
Spain
England

Denmark

Czech Republic
Ukraine
   496. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: July 02, 2021 at 05:13 PM (#6027484)
I think Italy has clearly been the best team of the tournament. Spain has not impressed me that much.
   497. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 02, 2021 at 08:39 PM (#6027496)
It could happen in the third-place game. Netherlands lost in PKs in 2014 in the semifinals, but went down meekly in the consolation contest.
No third-place game in the Euros though.
   498. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 02, 2021 at 09:11 PM (#6027502)
Chile showed spunk but Brazil dominated the first half. Ended 0-0. One minute into the second half, Brazil took the lead.

Jesus with the no-look karate kick straight to the face two minutes later, and Brazil is down to 10. It was accidental by Jesus but a totally dangerous ###### and the Brazilians barely complained. Down a man and the game could be interesting
   499. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: July 02, 2021 at 09:18 PM (#6027503)
Jesus with the no-look karate kick straight to the face

This is funnier if you read it with a straight English pronunciation.
   500. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 02, 2021 at 09:47 PM (#6027506)
Richarlison spent most of the half on the ground, going down after every touch.
Page 5 of 9 pages ‹ First  < 3 4 5 6 7 >  Last ›

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JE
for his generous support.

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogA’s reportedly eyeing Tropicana site for possible Strip ballpark
(27 - 11:30pm, Dec 03)
Last: Barry`s_Lazy_Boy

NewsblogMLB, union stopped blood testing for HGH due to pandemic
(28 - 11:27pm, Dec 03)
Last: Barry`s_Lazy_Boy

Hall of MeritMock Hall of Fame Ballot 2022
(17 - 11:19pm, Dec 03)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogMLB Teams Spend Record $2.16 Billion in Month Before Lockout
(1 - 11:11pm, Dec 03)
Last: DL from MN

NewsblogOT - November* 2021 College Football thread
(430 - 11:05pm, Dec 03)
Last: frannyzoo

NewsblogNBA 2021-2022 Season Thread
(1261 - 10:52pm, Dec 03)
Last: spivey 2

Sox TherapyLocked Out and Semi-Loaded
(16 - 9:17pm, Dec 03)
Last: The Duke

Newsblog'Chicago!' Stroman says he's joining Cubs
(50 - 9:16pm, Dec 03)
Last: The Duke

NewsblogJackie Bradley, Jr. back to Boston in deal with Crew
(20 - 8:53pm, Dec 03)
Last: NattyBoh

NewsblogFormer Cy Young Winner LaMarr Hoyt Reportedly Dies At 66
(69 - 8:41pm, Dec 03)
Last: Jay Z

NewsblogMasahiro Tanaka to remain with NPB's Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles for 2022 season
(2 - 8:32pm, Dec 03)
Last: vortex of dissipation

NewsblogMcCaffery: Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard passed Hall of Fame eye test
(79 - 8:30pm, Dec 03)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogMarcell Ozuna was choking wife as cops burst in, police video shows
(39 - 5:30pm, Dec 03)
Last: Never Give an Inge (Dave)

NewsblogBaseball Hall of Fame ballot 2022: Alex Rodriguez, David Ortiz join; Bonds, Clemens, Schilling in final year
(97 - 4:51pm, Dec 03)
Last: taxandbeerguy

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 2021 Results
(6 - 4:24pm, Dec 03)
Last: DL from MN

Page rendered in 0.4977 seconds
50 querie(s) executed