Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Wednesday, June 02, 2021

OT Soccer Thread - In Which Euro 2020 Is Played in 2021

With the club season done it’s on to what is going to be a more normal summer than last year.  Bunch of stuff that was supposed to get played last year, bunch of stuff that was supposed to be played this year moves to next year.

Euro 2020 - June 11 - July 11
Gold Cup - July 10 - August 1
Copa America 2020 - June 13 - July 10 - due to COVID issues in host Argentina the tournament has been moved to a safer location…Brazil.  Presumably the next option is an infectious disease ward of a hospital.
2020 Olympics Men - July 22 - August 7
2020 Olympics Women - July 21 - August 6
CONCACAF Nations League Semi-Final and Final - June 3 and June 6
CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying - June 12 and June 15 - Winners advance to the Octagon, the Hexagon is dead, long live the Hexagon.
2021-22 Champions League - June 22 Preliminary Round, August 26 Group Stage Draw
2021-22 Europa League - Third Qualifying Round August 5, schedule is weird, I can’t find details of the previous two rounds but presumably on a similar schedule to the Champions League
2021-22 Europa Conference - First Qualifying Round July 8
2021 Women’s Euros - Postponed to 2022 (I’ll defer to others on the women’s game as I don’t follow closely enough to know what other big tournaments there are)

Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: June 02, 2021 at 08:55 AM | 833 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off topic, soccer

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 8 of 9 pages ‹ First  < 6 7 8 9 > 
   701. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Fred Posted: July 18, 2021 at 08:42 PM (#6029541)
The one major difference is the contact that resulted.

Danielson's studs are facing sideways, and having launched himself he has no control. Jorginho's studs are facing down when he puts his foot down on the ball. If you don't see a major difference there's really nothing else to say.
   702. The Marksist Posted: July 19, 2021 at 03:26 PM (#6029587)
Both of those tackles suck. I think stomping on the ball is a bulls**t move and penalizing it out of the game would be good, if it were possible. But lunging tackles at knee height are worse, no matter what direction the tackler's body is falling. Outcomes matter here, and that was horrific.
   703. spivey 2 Posted: July 20, 2021 at 09:11 AM (#6029631)
I agree with 702.

I actually do think that Jorginho's has the least amount of wiggle room in terms of being dirty. Stomping on the ball during a challenge is something a player knows is going to often lead to cleating the opponent, because the ball is going to squirt out 9 times of 10. That's a conscious decision to be dirty, which Jorginho is, and probably something he feels he needs to be, given he's an undersized and not particularly quick or strong DM.

The other one is tough because I think the player is legitimately just trying to clear the ball. But it's reckless. Players need to have the awareness of where people are on the field, and going for the ball in that way can lead to that kind of scenario.
   704. frannyzoo Posted: July 20, 2021 at 12:45 PM (#6029671)
Imps score right at the half and go up 1-0 over Cluj in the home leg. Yay!

C'mon you know you care about the Lincoln Red Imps.

   705. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: July 20, 2021 at 01:01 PM (#6029673)
No team from Gibraltar has ever advanced passed the 2nd qualifying round!
   706. frannyzoo Posted: July 20, 2021 at 01:30 PM (#6029681)
Cluj now with two away goals and a 2-1 lead over the Imps. Imps is Gibraltarian for "Mets."

No, I don't think "Gibraltarian" is a language.

   707. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 20, 2021 at 09:00 PM (#6029727)
Guadeloupe not exactly covering themselves with glory. 2nd red in the 93rd minute. Played most of the game with 10 men and lost.

Suriname had been around a long time, so they've occasionally had better teams than this one. They've put together a few wins now though, and this might be as good as a stretch as any they've had since the 1980s. Still one of the worst teams here at the Gold Cup.
   708. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 20, 2021 at 10:32 PM (#6029741)
With Costa Rica leading Jamaica, the USMNT will almost certainly face Jamaica in the quarters. If they win that one, as it stands now they'd take on the winner of Qatar/ElSalvador, where Qatar should be the favorite.

Mexcico would get a likely tougher matchup with Honduras, then the winner of Canada/CostaRica. Still a half to be played though, and things could still change.
   709. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 20, 2021 at 11:01 PM (#6029754)
Looks like maybe Costa Rica got a lead and then sat on it. They've had the short end of the possession and been greatly outshot. Played the last 20 minutes down a man but have now won, so Jamaica will face the USA and Costa Rica will face Canada. Canada is as good as they've been in a long time, and Costa Rica about as bad as they've been, so Canada might be favored.
   710. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 20, 2021 at 11:42 PM (#6029774)
Qatar beats Honduras in a game where they played defensively for most of the second half with the lead, but also played fairly well on the counter and had the vast majority of shots and a very legit penalty call (which they proceeded to miss). They seemed to be at least as good as Honduras on the night. Better, probably.

Qatar has the 4th best ELO at this tournament, after the North American teams, and you can see why after the group games, where they were probably the best team in their group.

Qatar aced the Asian cup in 2019, but haven't done that much since. They are playing well enough though that they could be a challenge for this USMNT team in the semis for sure, if both win in the quarters.

   711. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 20, 2021 at 11:50 PM (#6029785)
So, these predictions were hilariously bad...

1. Jonathan David Wins the Golden Boot
2. Curaçao Will Go Further Than You Think
3. Tyler Adams Will Be Named Player of the Tournament
4. Jamaica Wins Group C and Reaches the Semi-Finals
5. Costa Rica Will Fail to Qualify for the Knockouts
6. USA Defeats Mexico to Lift the Trophy


1. not even here. rested due to recovering from injuries
2. entire team out for covid. replaced by guatemala
3. not even here. withdrew due to injury
4. no, but not far off
5. wtf. group had suriname and guadeloupe. costa rica won it
6. as if
   712. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 21, 2021 at 12:01 AM (#6029788)
Just found out that Qatar was group favorite coming into the tournament, so beating Honduras should not have come as a surprise. Indeed, Qatar was favored coming into the game today.
   713. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 21, 2021 at 08:20 AM (#6029805)
USWNT lost 3-0?

I was thinking of watching the game, but the Olympic format turned me off with so many teams qualifying. Plus it was just too early. They still have to be strong favorites for gold, I imagine, but would be curious to know what happened.

edit: after just one round of results, it's almost certain that the top 8 teams will go through. I guess Canada and/or Japan could still screw it up by drawing Chile and losing to Great Britain. Not terribly likely.
   714. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 21, 2021 at 08:55 AM (#6029809)
One interesting thing about this result is that if the USWNT cares to win their group, they likely will have to beat New Zealand by a bunch of goals to make up for the 3 they lost to Sweden AND get lucky with Australia beating Sweden.

As it stands, the QFs are likely to be:

GB/Australia
Sweden/Canada (or Japan)
Netherlands (or Brazil)/USA
Brazil (or Netherlands)/Japan (or Canada)

The USWNT might have to go through the Netherlands, Brazil (or Japan) and GB to win it.
   715. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: July 21, 2021 at 09:06 AM (#6029811)
I'd bet on Brazil ahead of the Dutch for that quarterfinal game then one of the teams from Group E with either the Group E winner or Sweden in the final. That's not a gimme (though certainly doable). As has been noted the US is an older team.

The starter ages were; 33,32,32,28,27,26,29,36,28,32,33 with 39,29,36,22,30 coming off the bench. There are a lot of miles on that team which has played a lot of soccer over the years. As someone who doesn't follow the USWNT as closely as others here the ages and this result to start looks like a team where we are going to be asking why they didn't have room for a young buck or two in the squad. This is probably an overreaction to one game against a very good team.
   716. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 21, 2021 at 09:32 AM (#6029818)
Wow, no love for the Netherlands or Great Britain? After the USA, those were the two teams given the best betting odds, fairly significantly. (Next group being Sweden, Japan, Brazil, and Australia, and finally with Canada rounding out the top 8.)
   717. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: July 21, 2021 at 09:45 AM (#6029820)
GB would be the team I would expect to win Group E and be the opponent in the final. I'm almost certainly overrating Brazil/underrating Netherlands based on their history.
   718. Baldrick Posted: July 21, 2021 at 09:57 AM (#6029821)
Winning the group doesn't really matter. The US will be favorites (even after today) against anyone they play so it's just 'win three knockouts' in any case.

I have a small baby, so there was no chance I was throwing away precious sleep to watch it live, but it seems like basically all the bad things people have been hinting at all happened together. Plus, Sweden are really really good. I had them making the final in my pre-tournament predictions, and they're pretty much the only team in the world (with only really Spain being anywhere close) to consistently match up well against the US over the past four years. They've also got a great coach who takes full advantage of having super-adaptable players.

Oh, Sweden was also without Magda Eriksson--arguably their best player.
   719. jmurph Posted: July 21, 2021 at 10:36 AM (#6029827)
Congrats on the small baby, Baldrick!

Like some of you I also don't follow the women's game closely outside of the major tournaments, but I agree with Jose- we looked old. As a casual, I probably shouldn't be able to recognize all the players immediately! There should be some young up and comers I've only barely heard of.
   720. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: July 21, 2021 at 10:41 AM (#6029830)
Indeed. Congrats Baldrick! Enjoy not getting any sleep!
   721. Manny Coon Posted: July 21, 2021 at 10:46 AM (#6029832)
"There are a lot of miles on that team which has played a lot of soccer over the years. As someone who doesn't follow the USWNT as closely as others here the ages and this result to start looks like a team where we are going to be asking why they didn't have room for a young buck or two in the squad."

Some of this ties into the discussion about their pay structure. Unlike the US men who are a paid by appearance, the women have guaranteed contracts with a significant benefits package, including severance benefits. This makes it very costly for them to have any kind of significant roster turnover and for new players to break into the team. It also makes their "equal pay" arguments very dishonest, during the most recent collective bargaining they rejected men's pay structure in favor of the greater security and benefits of the guaranteed contracts. Their blatant dishonesty makes them come off as financially well off people appropriating the language of oppression of further enrich themselves.
   722. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 21, 2021 at 10:54 AM (#6029835)
Winning the group doesn't really matter. The US will be favorites (even after today) against anyone they play so it's just 'win three knockouts' in any case.
This is more or less true if the only consideration that matters is winning gold--and that might very well be the case. The likely opponents now are slightly harder, but not necessarily that much harder to move the overall needle for winning gold.

I will say this though: if they end up facing the Netherlands rather than Canada in the quarters and lose that game, it will be a much bigger shock to casual fans than if they had lost to the Netherlands in the final.
   723. Baldrick Posted: July 21, 2021 at 11:01 AM (#6029837)
This is more or less true if the only consideration that matters is winning gold--and that might very well be the case. The likely opponents now are slightly harder, but not necessarily that much harder to move the overall needle for winning gold.

I actually don't think that's true. The next best team at the tournament is probably Sweden, who they're guaranteed to be opposite from. After that, the only other squad that's truly scary is GB, who likely ends up on the top half of the bracket. Netherlands + Canada or Japan or Brazil is probably a little easier than the walk on the other side.
   724. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 21, 2021 at 11:13 AM (#6029842)
It may be that the Netherlands is not really that great, but the betting odds coming in to the tournament (percent chance of gold) were:
USA              52
Netherlands      13
Great Britain    11
Sweden            6.5
Japan             5
Brazil            4.5
Australia         3.5
Canada            2.5
Field             2


edit: based on the loss, the USWNT went from likely to face Canada (or Japan), then GB, then the winner on the other side (Netherlands/Sweden/Japan/Brazil). Now they will likely face Netherlands/Brazil, then Brazil/Netherlands/Japan, then GB/Sweden. This new route is harder, and most likely starts harder, earlier (according to pre-tournament odds).
   725. kubiwan Posted: July 21, 2021 at 12:08 PM (#6029854)
There should be some young up and comers I've only barely heard of.


Since the Olympics are always the year after the World Cup, a pretty common pattern is to just run basically the same team out for both tournaments and then use the 3 years between the Olympics and the next World Cup to retool (this is, of course, an especially easy/tempting decision when you win the World Cup pretty handily as the US did).

But these Olympics were delayed a full year. We have seen in a lot of sports that can be the difference between "experienced veteran team who knows how to win" and simply "old".

   726. Baldrick Posted: July 21, 2021 at 01:22 PM (#6029862)
The US is still the best team in the world by a pretty decent way. Obviously 3-0 is bad, but I would recommend a wait-and-see approach. Most likely, it's a huge outlier.

And yeah, the betting odds like the Dutch a lot more than I think is justified. If I were a betting person, I would absolutely have put money on Sweden (who seriously are great) and would have run very fast away from the Netherlands. Swap their odds and I think you'd be a lot closer to the truth.
   727. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 21, 2021 at 01:55 PM (#6029870)
Revised odds after one round (original odds second column):
USA              45           52
Netherlands      14           13
Great Britain    11.5         11
Sweden           11.5          6.5
Japan             5            5
Brazil            5.5          4.5
Australia         4            3.5
Canada            3            2.5
Field             0.5          2
   728. Baldrick Posted: July 21, 2021 at 08:06 PM (#6029933)
Finally had time to watch the game, and it was actually a little worse than I expected from a US perspective. The first half was absolutely brutal. Sweden just ruthlessly exposed all the potential weaknesses--which have been evident for years but which no one (other than Sweden a few months ago) had ever really done anything about. By far the biggest problem is a tactical setup that leaves the space in front of the center backs dangerously exposed. The solution has always been 'rely on Julie Ertz to solve any problems that pop up' and she wasn't available. Sweden also targeted Dunn, and showed what happens when a world-class player is deputized as a fullback--especially when there's very little cover for her.

If Ertz can play full 90s starting in the knockouts, I think that resolves a lot of the problems here. If she can't, they (very stupidly imo) haven't really practiced playing any other way and may find other teams taking inspiration from Sweden and targeting the same problems. Even so, no other team in the world has Sweden's combination of great players, great tactical awareness, and great flexibility. If, say, Australia tries to do what Sweden did today, they'll get ripped to shreds.

From a Sweden perspective, it was just a wonderful performance which (very importantly) didn't require anything truly exceptional. They can absolutely play this well again. Kosovare Asllani was ridiculous, and the central piece that made the rest of it work. The fullbacks were great (I'm a huge Hanna Glas fan), and the while the strikers flubbed some chances they also delivered some great goals. The real concern for Sweden is that they need all the lines to click in order to score goals. If the attack isn't flowing freely, they have to drop back and the chances will get a lot more rare. Even when the US don't play great, they almost always score a goal or two. Sweden is far more likely to get held back. Still, I picked them to make the finals coming into the tournament so I'm sure not going to back off that now.
   729. Mefisto Posted: July 21, 2021 at 09:02 PM (#6029944)
I finally got to watch it also. To add to what Baldrick said, the US didn't just look vulnerable on defense, they looked poor on offense. In the first half especially, they made a ton of bad passes and simply couldn't keep possession.
   730. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 22, 2021 at 09:21 AM (#6030003)
Switching back to the gold cup for a moment, Mexico, the USA, and to a lesser extent Qatar are all big favorites in the quarters. Costa Rica is a slight favorite over Canada after all.

Based on current betting odds, the ranking of teams currently at the tournament is something like the following.
Mexico
USA

Costa Rica
Canada
Qatar

Honduras
Jamaica

El Salvador

The US is on the easier side of the bracket--they appear to be given a little over 75% chance of advancing over Jamaica, maybe over 70% over Qatar and close to 80% over El Salvador. They'd be under 50% against Mexico, but maybe 70% against Canada or Costa Rica.
   731. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 22, 2021 at 09:33 AM (#6030005)
Hat trick for Richarlison. Too old for the olympics (aside from places set aside for older players)? Not this year, since it's actually for U24s (being delayed from 2020), and Richarlison turned 24 this year.
   732. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: July 22, 2021 at 09:36 AM (#6030006)
I was looking at the Gold Cup this morning, the US certainly seems to have things well situated for themselves. Winning this tournament on the heels of the Nations League would be a nice indicator that the US has gotten its #### together after 2018.
   733. kubiwan Posted: July 22, 2021 at 04:14 PM (#6030067)
Winning this tournament on the heels of the Nations League would be a nice indicator that the US has gotten its #### together after 2018.


I would feel this way even with a loss to Mexico in the final. In general, I understand if we sometimes/frequently play second fiddle to El Tri, but there should NEVER be multiple other CONCACAF teams ahead of us.

More than anything, I want us to play more non-CONCACAF teams (a all-hemispheric Copa America, Nations League, and/or World Cup qualifying would suffice); can we really get better playing endless games against the likes of Jamaica and Suriname and Panama?
   734. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: July 22, 2021 at 04:25 PM (#6030069)
Yeah I was thinking comfortable wins in the quarters and semis followed by a tight loss in the final would almost be more encouraging than tight wins all the way through. I think you are right all around though, multiple CONCACAF teams should never be ahead of us. Maybe Mexico and a golden generation from another central american country but that's it at most.

And completely co-sign on playing more non-CONCACAF teams. If I was running USSF I would do everything I could to get the US involved in the Copa America more often. Get yourself as a regular invitee to that tournament and get some meaningful action against a little more depth. The reality is the Gold Cup should always be a semi-final berth at the absolute worst.
   735. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 23, 2021 at 09:23 AM (#6030118)
Sweden has gone way up in the view of the betting public, probably not too surprisingly. USA has fallen quite a bit.
Revised odds after one round (original odds second column):
USA              42           52
Netherlands      13.5         13
Great Britain    14           11
Sweden           14            6.5
Japan             4            5
Brazil            6            4.5
Australia         3.5          3.5
Canada            2.5          2.5
Field             0.5          2

Netherlands are decently-sized favorites over Brazil tomorrow morning (45% to win, 30% draw, 25% loss). Sweden is pretty big favorites over Australia. Except for Great Britain v Japan, the rest are not expected to be competitive. Japan is at home (no crowd), but Great Britain is only given a 43% chance to beat them, in what is expected to be the closest match of the day--by expectation slightly more competitive than the Netherlands/Brazil.
   736. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 24, 2021 at 07:27 AM (#6030242)
Formiga is still playing! 43 years old.
   737. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: July 24, 2021 at 09:55 AM (#6030250)
That should help settle things down for the US.
   738. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 24, 2021 at 08:33 PM (#6030288)
Revised odds:
          after round 2    after round 1    pre-olympics
USA              41           42           52
Great Britain    16           14           11
Sweden           14           14            6.5
Netherlands      13.5         13.5         13
Brazil            6.5          6            4.5
Australia         3.5          3.5          3.5
Japan             3            4            5
Canada            2.5          2.5          2.5
Field             0            0.5          2

edit: not much movement in the odds, and unless Australia upsets the USA (8%) or Canada upsets Great Britain (25%), there probably won't be after the next round either.
   739. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 24, 2021 at 08:46 PM (#6030289)
Such a ridiculous call against El Salvador for that handball penalty, under the new interpretation of the rule that should never have been given. US will face Qatar if they win. Qatar has looked quite decent this tournament, better than their opponents in every game this tournament so far. US not so much. Could be closer than people think.
   740. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 24, 2021 at 09:04 PM (#6030290)
Well this got exciting, and now that earlier penalty call looks even worse.

Qatar has left some serious holes open in defense this second half playing a high-ish line. Something the USA can exploit we hope.
   741. Mefisto Posted: July 24, 2021 at 09:37 PM (#6030293)
After watching Netherlands play Brazil, I'm inclined to agree with Baldrick that Netherlands is overrated.
   742. Pirate Joe Posted: July 24, 2021 at 09:42 PM (#6030294)
Such a ridiculous call against El Salvador for that handball penalty, under the new interpretation of the rule that should never have been given.


I don't understand how the ref could go over and look at the monitor and still call it a penalty.

That turned into a really good game in the second half.

   743. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 25, 2021 at 07:22 PM (#6030348)
Canada looks good here early. Continues the trend of the tournament so far, where Canada has generally looked very good in all their games, and Costa Rice looking a bit weak. Still, Costa Rica is favored so we'll see if things change.

I spoke to soon in the Qatar v El Salvador game, that's for sure. The game turned dramatically after the penalty to Qatar, with El Salvador completely dominating the last 30 minutes such that they were likely the better team on the night.
   744. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 25, 2021 at 07:56 PM (#6030350)
That was a very one-sided first half. Almost all the best chances went to Canada, who looked better in every part of the game. Had the better of the midfield battle, defended well, and had way more chances, some of the best ones not even leading to shots. If they play the second half like that there's very little chance Costa Rica will come back. Big if, of course.
   745. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: July 25, 2021 at 10:33 PM (#6030360)
Entertaining half hour so far in the US-Jamaica game. A little chippy but not a ton of chances, one good one for each team. Hoppe is really flying I know nothing about him but so far he looks like a handful. I like the way he. Plays pretty direct. He just goes after it.
   746. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: July 25, 2021 at 10:48 PM (#6030363)
US hasn’t played well the last 15-20 minutes or so of the half. just seems like the execution hasn’t been there. They aren’t being overwhelmed in numbers, just making a lot of sloppy plays.
   747. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 25, 2021 at 11:05 PM (#6030369)
Yeah the first few minutes were a little shaky but after that looked like the solidly better team for quite a while. Not so much the last 15 minutes though. I'd still very much bet on the US this second half, but I'm sure they are going to want to play a little better.
   748. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: July 25, 2021 at 11:40 PM (#6030371)
Frustrating second half here. Game generally feels disjointed which seems to favor Jamaica. Ref is letting them play but no complaints here. They’ve talked endlessly about the pitch not really letting the ball run and that seems to affecting the US more than Jamaica. There hasn’t been a lot in the second half where it’s felt like the US was going to score.
   749. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: July 25, 2021 at 11:42 PM (#6030372)
Shows what I know.
   750. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: July 25, 2021 at 11:56 PM (#6030373)
No style points but a win is a win is a win. Acosta was deserving of all the praise he got. I thought Vines had a real good game too. Dike was pretty quiet but I suspect that was down more to the style game as the US couldn’t provide for him and wanted him to stay up high. And Turner was great.
   751. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 26, 2021 at 12:01 AM (#6030374)
In the second half, I thought the US had some decent chances that didn't lead to shots, and also a couple really nicely connected shots that went to close to Blake. Blake looked good most of the night but he misplayed that cross giving Hoppe the open goal to head at.

Jamaica also had a few chances so it definitely wasn't all one way.

The US looked better than they did against Canada, but that's probably in large part because Canada is just stronger than Jamaica right now. I would have said that Qatar was the 4th best team at this tournament (after Mexico, the US, and Canada) until that last 30 minutes or so against El Salvador, and now I'm not so sure if maybe you couldn't give that to El Salvador or Jamaica. Definitely it was not Honduras or Panama, and the rest of the teams were at best a level below those. And then Grenada.

I expect the US and Mexico both to be around 75% to advance this week.
   752. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 26, 2021 at 09:15 AM (#6030394)
Mexico is around 75% to advance over Canada, but the USA is only about 65% to advance over Qatar. I would have said those odds were about right until the end of that Qatar game, where they had absolutely no idea what to do with El Salvador.

Canada has also looked very good so far, and I'd be surprised if Mexico finds this game to be easy. I'd lean towards Canada at those odds, but not by much.

Overall odds in the tournament right now suggest Qatar is considered to be better than Canada (once you factor in opponents and likelihood to face them), but I definitely think that's an oversell.
   753. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 27, 2021 at 07:49 AM (#6030665)
Not much of a performance today from the US, based on the highlights. They had the clear best two chances, but both were offside. To be fair the offside goal was very, very close.

If Great Britain somehow manages to lose to Canada (though a draw at nil seems like a much better bet right now, as we have another snoozer), the US would be on the side of the bracket with GB, Brazil, and the Netherlands, while Sweden would have Australia, Canada, and Japan. Big edge for Sweden there.
   754. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 27, 2021 at 07:52 AM (#6030666)
After that very hard fought 3-3 draw between Brazil and the Netherlands, it's not even clear who would prefer to win the group. Their opponents could still be any of Great Britain, Canada, or Japan, but not that likely Great Britain. And if they both win, they just play each other anyway.
   755. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 27, 2021 at 08:12 AM (#6030667)
Canada leads!

Japan still 0-0 against Chile, so a goal by Chile would send Japan home and Chile into the quarters.
   756. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 27, 2021 at 08:21 AM (#6030669)
Oops 754 wasn't right at all. After that hard fought draw by Netherlands/Brazil, winning the group is not an advantage, as the winner will face the US. Loser right now is up against Great Britain, so that's not ideal either.
   757. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 27, 2021 at 08:42 AM (#6030672)
Netherlands up by 3 now, so the US will face them barring a massive turn around.

Big deflection gifts Great Britain a late goal! Normalcy restored.

Japan scored, so they will advance.
   758. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 27, 2021 at 09:23 AM (#6030676)
21 goals now for the Netherlands in the group stage. they've also given up 8. Miedema has 8 goals already.
   759. I am going to be Frank Posted: July 27, 2021 at 02:59 PM (#6030740)
Varane to United is done. Adding him to Sancho looks pretty good so far. A mobile DM to cover for Pogba (or van De Beek if Pogba goes) and Bruno would be ideal, but not many of those around.

Varane has had some very high-profile mistakes, but he would seem to complement Maguire well.

I going to continue to vent my frustration with streaming. I have an AT&T box and Xbox and I would like to stream replays of soccer and other sports but it tells me I can't as my TV provider doesn't allow it. Yet, I can do that on my computer though.
   760. Mefisto Posted: July 27, 2021 at 04:43 PM (#6030760)
There are lots of rumors about United and several different midfielders. We'll see.
   761. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 28, 2021 at 07:38 AM (#6030855)
Revised odds:
        after round 3    after round 2    after round 1    pre-olympics
USA              31           41           42           52
Great Britain    17.5         16           14           11
Sweden           15           14           14            6.5
Netherlands      13.5         13.5         13.5         13
Brazil           10            6.5          6            4.5
Canada            5            2.5          2.5          2.5
Australia         4.5          3.5          3.5          3.5
Japan             3.5          3            4            5
Field                                       0.5          2

QF odds:

US       over   Netherlands           57
Brazil   over   Canada                64
Britain  over   Australia             70
Sweden   over   Japan                 74

Extremely notable--the US/Netherlands game is considered to be the tightest this round, with the US only slight favorites. Pendulum seems to have swung too far in the other direction. I saw quite a bit of the Brazil/Netherlands game and while either team could have won it, Brazil was arguably the better side in the parts I saw.

Regardless, at the moment the Netherlands is probably still being considered the second best team here.
   762. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 28, 2021 at 09:25 AM (#6030865)
Germany just needed a win today over Ivory Coast to advance. They drew so are out. France needed a 2-goal win over South Korea today to advance. Lost 0-4.
   763. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 29, 2021 at 06:41 PM (#6031328)
USA as underdog against Netherlands? Um, no. I wish article writers would actually look at the odds occasionally, before saying stupid ####, which they do constantly. (Every year, there is a Gladbach that is a "favorite" to win the domestic league after a hot start. Last year even Spurs were the "favorite" for a glorious second.)

Actual odds right now are US around 55%. Much closer than people would have thought coming into the tournament, but hardly underdogs. Also, the Netherlands had the second highest odds coming in, so even had teams played up to expectations, the US wouldn't have been much higher than 65%.
   764. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 29, 2021 at 08:21 PM (#6031366)
The US looked poor that half. Qatar was the better side. Shades of the Canada game. They started fine, but ended up very sloppy in defensive transition and without any ideas of what to do on offense.

El Salvador chasing the game in the last 30 minutes ripped Qatar to shreds with urgency and directness. Nothing like that from the US on display today. They should make some changes at the half.
   765. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: July 29, 2021 at 08:43 PM (#6031395)
I don’t understand how that is not considered a clear and obvious error. That’s a stonewall penalty.
   766. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: July 29, 2021 at 08:46 PM (#6031398)
Boy oh boy, I guess he got a very little touch on the ball but for me that’s a penalty.
   767. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 29, 2021 at 08:49 PM (#6031401)
I think it's 75% a penalty. A little surprised they gave it on VAR, but it's hard for the US to complain too much. They've also been the weaker team so hardly deserve to be level. Berhalter should have made subs at the half.

edit: well.
   768. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: July 29, 2021 at 08:51 PM (#6031404)
Yeah, US had to do something there. They’ve been second best. I’m a big Zardes fan, he seems to make an impact every time I see him.
   769. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 29, 2021 at 08:57 PM (#6031409)
Switch GKs and this is 3-0 or 4-0 (ok slight exaggeration). To his credit, Barsham did make a very good stop on the one great chance the US had.
   770. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 29, 2021 at 09:00 PM (#6031412)
Qatar is a team that seems superficially good on defense. Put some pressure on them and they start to fall apart. It took the US quite a long time to try anything on the offensive end.
   771. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: July 29, 2021 at 09:00 PM (#6031415)
Bea you know this stuff better than me. Is Hoppe in the right spot or could he make greater impact in the middle? He seems very direct and willing to attack people head on. He’s been great on the left and causing problems but could he be a finisher playing more in the middle?
   772. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 29, 2021 at 09:13 PM (#6031420)
I don't know... I've only really watched him play these last 2 and a half games. I thought he looked very good coming in from the wing, trying to take people on and making good runs down the wings and crosses from outside into the middle. Basically, winger play. Maybe he could be even better in the middle but hard for me to say.
   773. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: July 29, 2021 at 09:15 PM (#6031422)
Thank the Maker!
   774. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 29, 2021 at 09:16 PM (#6031424)
The US has looked so much better since the subs. Maybe it's Qatar getting tired due to their lack of depth, or maybe the urgency of the subs coming in changing the shape of the game, but it's been night and day.
   775. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 29, 2021 at 09:19 PM (#6031426)
I like Zardes. I think he's a little limited for games outside Concacaf, but he's good at this level and should have started ahead of Dike to give the Us the best chance today.
   776. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: July 29, 2021 at 09:31 PM (#6031434)
Wasn’t pretty but win and advance is the mantra in a tournament.

Not sure you heard but they mentioned on the broadcast that in a qualifier Berhalter said he would have started Zardes over Dike but he wanted to give Dike the experience.
   777. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 29, 2021 at 10:46 PM (#6031484)
Mexico is the better team so far, but Canada has already had 3 very good chances, all created by defensive mistakes. Even without 3 of their best players not here, and 2 more suspended for this game, Canada is a spunky team. I'm looking forward to see what they can do in WC Qualifying. Outside of the US and Mexico, there isn't obviously a team better than them and they could be the favorites to go to the World Cup.
   778. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 29, 2021 at 11:02 PM (#6031486)
Looked like a penalty to me. Reversal on VAR seemed appropriate.

Reminds me that Turner probably caused the penalty miss by Qatar, by not going for the stutter fakes and throwing off the kicker.

edit: just such a wild, late, terrible tackle by Henry. Not that much contact in the end but sheesh.
   779. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 29, 2021 at 11:44 PM (#6031503)
Pretty breakaway goal and great finish by Canada to pull level, but then another bad penalty, this one on unnecessary contact in the very corner of the box--just a stupid play by the defense.

and saved!
   780. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 29, 2021 at 11:57 PM (#6031508)
Canada has played a very impressive second half. Taking it to Mexico at every opportunity and looking more lively than Mexico, finding a lot of space in the attacking end. If it hadn't been for the penalties I'd say they were the better team so far this half.
   781. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 30, 2021 at 12:08 AM (#6031509)
Mexico fans really are not covering themselves in glory. Hard to believe this keeps happening. I didn't hear what happened, but it was something the crowd did, audible on the field presumably.
   782. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 30, 2021 at 12:21 AM (#6031511)
Oh no! Mexico scores in the 99th minute. Nicely worked, and that's it. Canada played an excellent game but came up just short.

Based on performance so far, I would think Mexico would be 55-60% to beat the US in the final.

Now in the 15th minute of added time...
   783. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 30, 2021 at 06:47 AM (#6031526)
Kind of wild that these teams only dress 18 at the olympics, and can play 17 of them in a game that goes to an extra period. One of the 18 is a backup keeper too.

Brazil only used 3 of their subs. Canada used 5: everyone but the backup keeper and Zadorsky.
   784. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 30, 2021 at 07:41 AM (#6031529)
Great Britain emptied their bench before going behind in extra time. And another upset. Sweden will have a rematch against Australia, in a game they should be pretty heavily favored in.

Great Britain was a fairly big disappointment this tournament. Didn't look that great in any of their games, though they were probably the better team in all of them. Needed a lucky deflection late against Canada to even finish top of the group.
   785. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 30, 2021 at 08:20 AM (#6031536)
Formiga played at 7 olympics. That's ALL of them (for women's soccer)! Insane.
   786. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 30, 2021 at 08:26 AM (#6031538)
Not sure what VAR protocol they are using here. That one looked maybe onside, but was called offside on the field, and was too close to overturn without precise lines. So not sure what they were doing in the booth.
   787. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 30, 2021 at 09:01 AM (#6031541)
I didn't see the first half, but the stats indicated the US was better. They definitely weren't the better team in the second half--at best the teams were even but I'd give the edge to the Netherlands.

Foudy is saying the Netherlands does not have a deep bench. They've barely used anyone so far, so maybe it's true. The one player they have used has been very good, Beerensteyn. Netherlands should be getting tired now.
   788. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 30, 2021 at 09:07 AM (#6031542)
I don't understand why these VAR checks are so slow. The other one was very tight at least, but this one seemed pretty clear... Martens looked to be off by a foot or more. Both were called offside on the field, so you would think they would need good evidence to overturn.
   789. I am going to be Frank Posted: July 30, 2021 at 09:29 AM (#6031546)
The women's team plays together all the time, right? I don't understand how they turn into a whole team of Inzaghis.
   790. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: July 30, 2021 at 09:31 AM (#6031548)
I don't understand why these VAR checks are so slow. The other one was very tight at least, but this one seemed pretty clear... Martens looked to be off by a foot or more. Both were called offside on the field, so you would think they would need good evidence to overturn.


I wonder if it's some combination of language barrier or just general unfamiliarity between the replay official and on field referee. I assume a lot of these folks haven't worked together much. But you're right, it's been fairly painful how long some of these have taken.
   791. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 30, 2021 at 09:37 AM (#6031550)
The Netherlands was scrambling over that last 15 minutes. I think they really did get tired finally. After almost no shots for 60 minutes, the US poured it on in the last part of extra time but couldn't score.
   792. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: July 30, 2021 at 09:45 AM (#6031551)
That has continued into the PKs. Both saves have been fairly easy as PK saves go.
   793. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 30, 2021 at 09:53 AM (#6031552)
Quite a game. Could have gone either way. The US and Sweden should be big favorites to reach the final now. If they do, should be an exciting rematch.

It does seem that Sweden came into the tournament underrated, but based on the few games here it's not as easy to say that the Netherlands came in overrated. They gave the US all they could handle today. None of the other teams has really impressed so far, though credit to Canada for playing above expectations.



   794. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 30, 2021 at 05:23 PM (#6031726)
Revised odds:
            after QFs   after round 3   after round 2   after round 1    pre-olympics
USA              45           31             41             42              52
Sweden           36           15             14             14               6.5
Australia        10            4.5            3.5            3.5             3.5
Canada           9             5              2.5            2.5             2.5

Netherlands                   13.5           13.5           13.5            13
Great Britain                 17.5           16             14              11
Brazil                        10              6.5            6               4.5
Japan                          3.5            3              4               5
Field                                                        0.5             2

QF odds:

US       over   Canada                72
Sweden   over   Australia             73


US is now only slight favorites over Sweden, probably a little over 55% to 60% if they were to play next.
Australia now might be considered to be weaker than Canada, or at least not really any better.
   795. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 30, 2021 at 05:25 PM (#6031728)
Mexico is about 56% to win the gold cup. I'd take Mexico at those odds.
   796. Baldrick Posted: July 30, 2021 at 08:25 PM (#6031818)
Foudy is saying the Netherlands does not have a deep bench. They've barely used anyone so far, so maybe it's true. The one player they have used has been very good, Beerensteyn. Netherlands should be getting tired now.

They don't have a particularly deep bench, no. Certainly nowhere close to the US or Great Britain or Sweden. It'd say they're maybe the fourth best in terms of the second XI, or maybe fifth behind Canada, but there's a pretty big gap after the top three. Canada's bench is strengthened significantly by the fact that they have (in my opinion) the best keeper in the world sitting there.

Beerensteyn is great. Much better than van de Sanden who keeps getting starts because the US isn't the only country that likes to stick with players who have been successful for them in the past.
   797. Mefisto Posted: July 30, 2021 at 10:50 PM (#6031866)
Beerensteyn is great. Much better than van de Sanden who keeps getting starts because the US isn't the only country that likes to stick with players who have been successful for them in the past.


Yeah, I was sitting there yelling at the Netherlands to put Beerensteyn in at like the 25 minute mark.
   798. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 31, 2021 at 12:06 AM (#6031877)
Just saw the extended highlights of the Great Britain game against Australia. That was pretty one-sided in favor of Great Britain--probably their best game of the tournament actually, so I take back half of what I said above. I would only call their performance here a mild disappointment. They should have been stronger against Canada, rather than fading as the game wore on, and they didn't really dominate a fairly weak Japan, needing a late goal to win. Still, they were the better team in all their games and I'd easily place them in the top 4 here based on performance alone. That agrees well enough with pre-tournament expectations, with only Sweden really playing better than expected to move firmly into the top 4 along with GB, Netherlands, and USA.

I saw parts of the Brazil/Canada game and it was surprisingly very even. Highlights seem to back that up. Brazil was only tested in 2 games, playing above expectations against the Netherlands in a draw but below expectations against Canada in another draw. Bit of a mixed bag there, though you have to play well in the KOs when it matters. Canada hasn't been great this tournament, but they have played the last 3 halves even (not just on the scoreline) against superior opponents, and that was a welcome surprise.

Australia overall has not really impressed this tournament, despite mixed results. They have been second best in all their competitive games (not including New Zealand). That said, all 3 of their competitive games were against top teams in the tournament, so you can cut them a bit of slack. They are definitely lucky to get this far.

I don't see a good reason why Australia should be given less of a chance to beat Sweden than Canada has to beat the USA.
   799. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: August 01, 2021 at 11:05 PM (#6032101)
Flip
   800. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: August 01, 2021 at 11:05 PM (#6032102)
Flop
Page 8 of 9 pages ‹ First  < 6 7 8 9 > 

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Chicago Joe
for his generous support.

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogNBA 2021 Playoffs+ thread
(3861 - 4:39pm, Aug 03)
Last: JJ1986

Sox TherapyDance With Who Brung Ya'
(27 - 4:36pm, Aug 03)
Last: SandyRiver

NewsblogEmpty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird
(13560 - 4:26pm, Aug 03)
Last: Barry`s_Lazy_Boy

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 8-3-2021
(9 - 3:59pm, Aug 03)
Last: Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc

NewsblogSmile, dummies, it's OMNICHATTER!, for August 3, 2021
(1 - 3:33pm, Aug 03)
Last: Shohei Brotani (formerly LA Hombre)

NewsblogNew York Mets don't sign first-round draft pick Kumar Rocker before deadline
(83 - 3:33pm, Aug 03)
Last: Karl from NY

NewsblogChicago Cubs' Jed Hoyer says inability to sign stars to long-term deals 'greatest source of frustration'
(18 - 3:31pm, Aug 03)
Last: Hank White

NewsblogRays, Cubs Discussed Potential Trade Involving Tyler Glasnow And Kris Bryant/Craig Kimbrel
(7 - 2:10pm, Aug 03)
Last: Brian C

NewsblogOT Soccer Thread - In Which Euro 2020 Is Played in 2021
(833 - 1:41pm, Aug 03)
Last: MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB).

NewsblogSan Francisco Giants acquire Kris Bryant from Chicago Cubs for two prospects
(50 - 9:49am, Aug 03)
Last: Ron J

Hall of MeritJimmie Foxx
(18 - 8:09am, Aug 03)
Last: Rally

NewsblogIt's hard to think with all this OMNICHATTER!, August 2, 2021
(12 - 3:19am, Aug 03)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogBaseball Hall of Fame denies Curt Schilling's request to be removed from ballot for 2022 vote
(51 - 7:44pm, Aug 02)
Last: Ron J

Hall of MeritMark Grace
(25 - 6:47pm, Aug 02)
Last: SoSH U at work

Gonfalon CubsThis all sucks
(32 - 3:01pm, Aug 02)
Last: Walks Clog Up the Bases

Page rendered in 0.6479 seconds
48 querie(s) executed