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Wednesday, June 02, 2021

OT Soccer Thread - In Which Euro 2020 Is Played in 2021

With the club season done it’s on to what is going to be a more normal summer than last year.  Bunch of stuff that was supposed to get played last year, bunch of stuff that was supposed to be played this year moves to next year.

Euro 2020 - June 11 - July 11
Gold Cup - July 10 - August 1
Copa America 2020 - June 13 - July 10 - due to COVID issues in host Argentina the tournament has been moved to a safer location…Brazil.  Presumably the next option is an infectious disease ward of a hospital.
2020 Olympics Men - July 22 - August 7
2020 Olympics Women - July 21 - August 6
CONCACAF Nations League Semi-Final and Final - June 3 and June 6
CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying - June 12 and June 15 - Winners advance to the Octagon, the Hexagon is dead, long live the Hexagon.
2021-22 Champions League - June 22 Preliminary Round, August 26 Group Stage Draw
2021-22 Europa League - Third Qualifying Round August 5, schedule is weird, I can’t find details of the previous two rounds but presumably on a similar schedule to the Champions League
2021-22 Europa Conference - First Qualifying Round July 8
2021 Women’s Euros - Postponed to 2022 (I’ll defer to others on the women’s game as I don’t follow closely enough to know what other big tournaments there are)

Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: June 02, 2021 at 08:55 AM | 865 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off topic, soccer

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   801. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: August 01, 2021 at 11:06 PM (#6032103)
Regardless of what happens here in extra time it’s hard not to feel good about the Gold Cup run by the US. Young team got some significant big game chances and acquitted themselves pretty well. Mexico has been the better team but the US has been right there with some big chances.

(Also I updated the expiration date so this will remain live through the Olympics and I’ll post a new season one then)
   802. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: August 01, 2021 at 11:35 PM (#6032106)
Well #### me that was fabulous!!!
   803. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 01, 2021 at 11:42 PM (#6032109)
That was a very good game, and the US was much better than I thought they would be. Best game they played in the tournament, for sure. Seemed to have at least as many good chances as Mexico, though not as many chances overall. Maybe even won the xG battle, if you include the goal (which I think you have to do!)

Halftime stats per Connelly:

Shots: MEX 12, USA 4
xG: MEX 0.97, USA 0.54
Pass%: MEX 83%, USA 70%
Duel win%: MEX 66%, USA 34%
Ball recoveries: MEX 32, USA 26
   804. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 02, 2021 at 07:27 AM (#6032124)
US lost to Canada this morning I see. Just saw the extended highlights, which were missing the last 15 minutes (post penalty). The US had most of the chances in the first half, but none were good chances. They couldn't seem to break down Canada at all. Second half was different, where they got into the box on a number of occasions and had a few higher chance headers as well. Things seemed to be going their way until the penalty against the run of play at the other end.

Fair to say the US team was a massive disappointment at these olympics, and played below their expectation in every game. They were given over 50% to win the entire thing before it stated, which translates to something like close to 70% over Netherlands, close to 90% over Canada, and over 80% over a third team. The way they played, they were not much better than 50/50 against Netherlands, under 50/50 against Sweden, and looked dour in their other 2 games, and were nowhere near 90% to beat Canada today.

I can't say whether it was roster selection or something totally different. They didn't play like the best team here. By on the field performance alone at this tournament I'd still put them in the top 4, but not clearly superior to Great Britain or the Netherlands, and below Sweden.
   805. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 02, 2021 at 07:46 AM (#6032125)
If Sweden does win the gold medal, they will have gone through Japan, Australia, and Canada. That's the easiest run of teams they could possibly have anticipated. The weaker teams (Chile, China, Zambia, and New Zealand) had essentially no chance of making the KOs in the first place.

Sweden looks very flat right now, and Australia has been the better team over the last 20 minutes (since I've been watching).
   806. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 02, 2021 at 07:56 AM (#6032126)
Also, really bad luck on the penalty that sent out the US, but that gets called now pretty much everywhere. Can't blame the call.
   807. KronicFatigue Posted: August 02, 2021 at 08:55 AM (#6032129)
Good, I didn't want to be the first to post the USWMNT results (my phone spoiled the result for me), but now that it's been mentioned, I need more explanation. Most people here disliked the last coach, but this tournament was really really disappointing. So many disallowed goals because of offsides, most of which were felt sloppy. I'm okay with aggressively timed runs that wind up offsides, but in this case, it seemed like they could have had equally good chances by just hanging back.

My friends are upset with lineup selections, but I don't know enough about the team to comment on that. Seems like fatigue was a big factor this tournament, so I want to give the rotation a pass.
   808. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 02, 2021 at 09:00 AM (#6032131)
Sweden is through. This game was more highly contested than the US one. Australia seems like a step above Canada in talent. Sweden a step below the US.

Last second DOGSO by Australia. Turned out to be very unwise, as now the centerback will miss the game against the US, and the DOGSO was so late it didn't give Australia a meaningful chance.
   809. Mefisto Posted: August 02, 2021 at 09:32 AM (#6032135)
   810. Mefisto Posted: August 02, 2021 at 09:37 AM (#6032137)
So many disallowed goals because of offsides


Yeah, this was shocking.

I'd also identify Christen Press as surprisingly ineffective, as was Sam Mewis. Horan probably didn't get forward enough. But I think much of the rest was simply that the frontline players are just old: Lloyd, Heath, Pinoe, Morgan. And I've never thought highly of Lynne Williams, though obviously she contributed to the Netherlands game.
   811. spivey 2 Posted: August 02, 2021 at 09:51 AM (#6032141)
Harry Kane didn't show up at the training ground today for testing. Situation is a bit of a mess, as it's unclear to me City really value Kane even in the same ballpark of what Tottenham are asking for.
   812. Mefisto Posted: August 02, 2021 at 10:13 AM (#6032145)
If you believe the Statsbomb article, City are (and should be) more interested in Grealish.
   813. Mefisto Posted: August 02, 2021 at 10:16 AM (#6032147)
Just to add some more thoughts on the US: in previous years, Dunn and O'Hara got forward a lot. They contributed nothing this year. Dahlkemper was never particularly good as a pure defender and she got exposed this year. Davidson, who replaced her, gave up the penalty.

In short, Ertz and Lavelle were good. The rest of the team looked blah.
   814. spivey 2 Posted: August 02, 2021 at 10:43 AM (#6032158)
Also worth noting that the US was played evenly, maybe even outplayed, in the 2019 WC by England and France. I think that's been a bit forgotten given they were great in the final.
   815. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 02, 2021 at 11:53 AM (#6032170)
Stats Perform via Connelly had the game last night fairly close on xG. US dominated the last 60 minutes. They really did look better and better as the game wore on. Part of this was using their subs earlier and probably also just being better fit than Mexico.
   816. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: August 02, 2021 at 01:06 PM (#6032184)
The game last night was called very tightly. The ref really wasn't letting anything go and he did a pretty good job of getting ahead of the various shenanigans and nonsense that pervades CONCACAF and especially US-Mexico. I think that played into US hands in both cases. The fouls broke the game up a bit and didn't let Mexico establish a lot of rhythm despite the possession advantage and with a veteran team against a young team like that having the nonsense not get going was a good thing.
   817. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 02, 2021 at 01:19 PM (#6032188)
Yeah I think that's right. It made the game a little disjointed at times, but it's hard to fault the ref much, especially after what happened in the Canada game. And the US did seem to benefit.

Interestingly, I think Canada's tactics of roughing up Mexico worked really well for them also. Their team was a bit more experienced than the US, so maybe that helped. They seemed quite happy to mix it up with Mexico, for the most part while maintaining the edge in composure over their opponents, something the US seldom seems to be able to do when playing Mexico. Notably few cards were given in the Canada game too, but one difference is that it seemed many fewer fouls were called, especially early.
   818. kubiwan Posted: August 02, 2021 at 03:30 PM (#6032232)
Most people here disliked the last coach


As one of the primary Ellis-backers, I do feel vindicated. Sadly.

but this tournament was really really disappointing


Is this the worst-ever Olympics or World Cup performance by the US women? In terms of pure results, getting bounced in the quarters in the last Olympics still stands alone, but this feels like a much worse effort. They played 5 games...and won 1!
   819. Baldrick Posted: August 02, 2021 at 04:11 PM (#6032239)
My friends are upset with lineup selections, but I don't know enough about the team to comment on that. Seems like fatigue was a big factor this tournament, so I want to give the rotation a pass.

My big picture take is that they were exhausted. Partly physical exhaustion because the schedule is horrible, but mostly mental exhaustion with the weight of expectation. Most of these players were in excellent form with their clubs in May and June and then just...pffft for the last two weeks. I kept waiting for them to start just turning in 40th percentile performances and roll to gold but it never happened.

I do think that Jill Ellis was somewhat underrated by smart commenters because her biggest skill was keeping everyone on track and focused, and her biggest weaknesses were all the obvious stuff that we can all see. And that was a big problem here. Maybe a different coach could have done better than Vlatko--though that's never been a weakness of his in any other gig. But at a certain point, there isn't any coaching decision that can fix 'basically all of your world class players kind of played like crap at the same time.'
Australia seems like a step above Canada in talent. Sweden a step below the US.

Australia definitely playing better right now, but Canada definitely has more talent in general. FWIW, Australia were absolutely brutal in their (very few) post-COVID warmup games. Lost 10-2 combined against Germany and the Dutch in April. And their two wins at the Olympics are their only two wins since they qualified back in March 2020.
Is this the worst-ever Olympics or World Cup performance by the US women? In terms of pure results, getting bounced in the quarters in the last Olympics still stands alone, but this feels like a much worse effort. They played 5 games...and won 1!

Yeah, I think so. All the more wild since this is probably the biggest gap they've ever had between themselves and the second-best team. Just crazy.
   820. Fourth True Outcome Posted: August 02, 2021 at 04:47 PM (#6032252)
I think the USWNT issues were, in some order: exhaustion, mediocre roster selection weighted towards aging players, and some bad luck. There is also the factor that this was a huge revenge game for Canada from 2012, as they missed the USWNT at the last Olympics, while the US seemed all Olympics to be kind of struggling with motivation/energy. Vlatko didn't impress, but has a strong enough track record that I'm not sure he was the issue. I wonder if some of this is struggling to

Unless the US overreacts and cans Vlatko I'm not sure you can use this as much of a referendum on him; I suspect the 2023 World Cup roster will look much more like what I think the team should have rolled out for these Olympics. I also don't think this does much for Ellis in comparison; remember that her first major tournament as coach also involved underachieving in the 2016 Olympics where the team didn't even reach a medal match, though it wasn't quite the same as this.
   821. Mefisto Posted: August 02, 2021 at 05:22 PM (#6032260)
The resistance to replacing aging players has been a problem for a long time.
   822. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 02, 2021 at 05:36 PM (#6032266)
Of those three possibilities, I think looking back the biggest issue will be roster selection / aging players. 2 years ago is a long, long time ago when you are talking about players over 30, especially in their mid-30s.

The US rotated a lot, so should have been less exhausted than most other teams. In fact, being less exhausted than the Netherlands was very possibly a decisive factor in the game between the two.

Not buying bad luck in this tournament. Based on performance they were no better than 50/50 against Netherlands, and definitely not better than 80/20 against Canada. You would expect them to be eliminated more often than not prior to reaching the gold medal game with performances like that. And it's not like they just played two bad games, because they weren't good in the group stage either.

There might be other issues as well.

Usually it takes a lot of luck for any particular team to win a tournament like this. This US team was supposed to be different, being 50/50 to take gold before the tournament even started. After every game the US played, the perception of their quality, based on betting odds, decreased. (Except against New Zealand, where it didn't go up or down after.) That's a clear sign that this team was not nearly as good as advertised, starting from day 1 of the tournament. That indicates luck and exhaustion are less likely to have been major factors.

Retooling rosters a year too late is a major problem across sports, and certainly not limited to women's soccer or the USWNT. From my perspective though, we saw a confluence of factors that made it very difficult to turn over this roster prior to this tournament. Great past team success, probably at least partially the result of luck, creating a perception of past quality a little above actual quality; veteran stars, hitting the steeper downward parts of the aging curves; household-names who have a lot of clout internally in the system. Teams with these kinds of factors tend to overrate their current roster or at least have little power to change it, and are usually too slow in pulling the trigger until they fail publicly and badly. It seems to be a common story.

Now that a lot of pressure has been released based on this failure, if the usual story holds, the roster will be significantly overturned for the next tournament.
   823. Baldrick Posted: August 02, 2021 at 07:15 PM (#6032315)
I really don't think the aging players thing was a huge problem. Everyone played terrible. Abby Dahlkemper went from 'top 5 center back in the world' to 'unplayable.' She's 28. Sam Mewis and Lindsey Horan are two of the best center mids in the world. They're 27 and 28. They were both FAR below normal. Christen Press and Alex Morgan are 32 but both were both in fantastic form. You would have to be out of your mind to leave either of them out of the squad. And yet they didn't produce much.

The actual old players that provoked serious concerns did basically fine overall. Rapinoe looked way out of it. Lloyd wasn't great but wasn't any worse than anyone else. Sauerbrunn looked better than she has of late.

The problem with the team is that everyone played terribly. Really hard to call that an age problem, unless the dynamic (no new blood, everyone exhausted with having to be 'on' all the damn time, brittleness about coming into a tournament as a huge favorite) itself is the problem. Which, maybe so.
   824. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 03, 2021 at 07:44 AM (#6032476)
Sweden around 71% for the gold.
USA also around 71% for the bronze.
   825. The Marksist Posted: August 03, 2021 at 10:47 AM (#6032503)
Watching the US/Mexico final, I was struck by how little either team really contested midfield. The number of times guys just picked up the ball in their own third and ran straight through midfield was wild, especially compared to the Euros/European leagues. I'm sure some of this is just CONCACAF, but I expected Mexico to do more to control the game in general and in midfield specifically. Instead they seemed to be trying to play hero ball, always immediately pushing and playing long a lot. Felt like that helped the US because with the personnel they had, they probably couldn't have played possession ball or pressed very effectively without leaving huge holes.

For folks more in tune with Mexico and the USMNT, was this tactically as expected?
   826. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: August 03, 2021 at 11:23 AM (#6032509)
For folks more in tune with Mexico and the USMNT, was this tactically as expected?


I would say that Mexico having the lion's share of possession was expected. With that in mind I think the US having to kind of bang it forward and try to make something happen was going to be happening. Mexico definitely seemed a bit rushed and out of sorts. I go back to what Aunt Bea said about Canada roughing up Mexico. I suspect Mexico wanted to avoid a repeat of that so took a bit more of an aggressive approach.
   827. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 03, 2021 at 12:17 PM (#6032525)
Supposedly they are messing with the penalty rule again, at least in the EPL. Seemingly trying to do at least two things: 1) going back a little more to how penalties were called pre-VAR, where not all contact is actually worthy of a penalty, and 2) calling more penalties when people stay on their feet. Those two things seem a little bit at odds. I'd like to see the exact rules/directives, though I'm not actually sure anything they put on paper at this point makes a huge difference.

Even if you think refs are "terrible at their jobs" (and I'm not someone who thinks that), you have to feel for them a bit, as how they are instructed to make the most important calls on the field keeps changing every year, sometimes multiple times a year.
   828. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 03, 2021 at 12:29 PM (#6032527)
A bit more about the rule:

“Referees will look for contact and establish clear contact, then ask themselves the question: does that contact have a consequence?” Riley said. “They will then ask themselves a question: has the player used that contact to actually try and win a foul penalty?


“I think that the feedback we’ve had from players, both attackers and defenders, [is that] you want it to be a proper foul that has a consequence, not something that somebody has used slight to contact to go over, and we’ve given the penalty to reward it.”

Riley said he hoped the rules would help to persuade players to stay on their feet in the box. Under the new guidance, the penalty Raheem Sterling won for England against Denmark in the Euro 2020 semi-final would not have been given and, if it had, the decision would be expected to be overturned by VAR.


I generally like the idea of calling fouls less tightly in the box, for the main reason that offensive players have become quite good at playing for contact and not really to score. If they are going to do that, then in my view the contact better be significant and really have affected the play, in order to be a penalty. The incentives in the penalty box are massively different than anywhere else on the field, so a foul really should be called differently there.
   829. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 03, 2021 at 12:36 PM (#6032528)
Sterling foul. It was very soft, and probably should have been overturned even under the old VAR rules.
   830. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: August 03, 2021 at 01:03 PM (#6032531)
I generally like the idea of calling fouls less tightly in the box, for the main reason that offensive players have become quite good at playing for contact and not really to score. If they are going to do that, then in my view the contact better be significant and really have affected the play, in order to be a penalty. The incentives in the penalty box are massively different than anywhere else on the field, so a foul really should be called differently there.


I generally agree but I have two caveats;

1. They need to start calling fouls on plays where the guy doesn't go down. Too often I see a player pulled back in such a way that it clearly influences the play but he stays on his feet so no foul is given. If you want to cut out diving, call that.

2. This is my bigger one. I'm fine with giving the defenders more leeway in the box but I think the attackers should get the same benefit. If you wouldn't call the foul on a defender, don't call it on an attacker. It seems that any contact initiated by an attacking player in the box is a foul.

For me the thing I want to see is two referees. Watch an NHL game sometime if you want to see what I mean. You get better angles on the play and I think that would help cut down on some of the nonsense in part because two refs could consult each other.
   831. Yardape Posted: August 03, 2021 at 01:06 PM (#6032534)
Also worth noting that the US was played evenly, maybe even outplayed, in the 2019 WC by England and France. I think that's been a bit forgotten given they were great in the final.


Were they really outplayed, or is that just an illusion from score effects?
   832. KronicFatigue Posted: August 03, 2021 at 01:17 PM (#6032539)
Having 2 different distances for penalty kicks would be a good solution. There are fouls that prevented a decent goal scoring chance and fouls that just happen to occur inside the box.
   833. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: August 03, 2021 at 01:41 PM (#6032551)
Someone paying Spurs for the decrepit remains of Joe Hart will *not* stop amusing me anytime soon ...


Hart transfers to Celtic
   834. Pirate Joe Posted: August 03, 2021 at 08:12 PM (#6032672)
For me the thing I want to see is two referees. Watch an NHL game sometime if you want to see what I mean.



While the two referee idea is fine, all watching an NHL game does is support the notion that two incompetent officials aren't really all that much better than one. The NHL is, by far, the worst officiated major sport.

   835. jmurph Posted: August 04, 2021 at 09:32 AM (#6032744)
Looks like Grealish to Manchester City for bonkers money might actually go through. I mean he's very good and still young at least. Hopefully this puts the Kane stuff to bed.
   836. spivey 2 Posted: August 04, 2021 at 09:36 AM (#6032745)
There've been mixed reports on if City were treating Grealish and Kane as either/or or both. I feel like I've mostly read both, though.

Interestly, Grealish is only 2 years younger than Kane. Now, those are 2 big years of course since they're both in their prime, but Grealish feels a bit younger than a guy about to turn 26.
   837. Baldrick Posted: August 04, 2021 at 09:38 AM (#6032747)
Were they really outplayed, or is that just an illusion from score effects?

They were not really outplayed.
   838. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 04, 2021 at 10:23 AM (#6032759)
If they were better than Franca and England at all, it was by a very small margin. They lost the xG battle in both games. They were outpossessed, outshot, out pretty much everything against France, at least statistically (though I wouldn't say Franca was really better on the day, but certainly about equal). England had a penalty saved, but even without that penalty was basically even in xG against the US.

I would say both games were very even, and the US was lucky to come out with wins in both of them. That's not really a knock on the US--in tournament play you generally need quite a bit of luck to win. It just means they probably haven't been head and shoulders above their competition for a few years now, despite their record.
   839. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 04, 2021 at 10:49 AM (#6032763)
Not sure how I made the same typo twice. Not intentional.
   840. Baldrick Posted: August 04, 2021 at 11:23 PM (#6032917)
If they were better than Franca and England at all, it was by a very small margin. They lost the xG battle in both games. They were outpossessed, outshot, out pretty much everything against France, at least statistically (though I wouldn't say Franca was really better on the day, but certainly about equal). England had a penalty saved, but even without that penalty was basically even in xG against the US.

I'm a big believer in xG and definitely reassess my view of a game if the xG disagrees. But I was at both those games. I watched them very carefully. I've since rewatched them. Neither France nor England outplayed the US, nor were they especially close to doing so.
   841. Yardape Posted: August 05, 2021 at 01:20 AM (#6032929)
They lost the xG battle in both games


Sure, but my thesis is that there is a score effect on xG (such that the trailing team will generate more xG). The US led for 85% of those two games, which I think distorts the xG. I think it's telling that the US lost the xG in the two games in which they scored early and led all the way, but dominated xG in the game they were held goalless for longer.
   842. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 05, 2021 at 06:18 AM (#6032934)
Sure, but my thesis is that there is a score effect on xG (such that the trailing team will generate more xG). The US led for 85% of those two games, which I think distorts the xG.
This factor is way overstated. Trailing teams generally play on then front foot and take a higher volume of lower quality shots, but leave themselves open for a lower volume of higher quality shots on the counter. The overall effect on xG is low over a large number of games, and certainly way too low to be cited in any individual game. The right way to do this for any game is to watch all then chances, whether they lead to a shot or not, for each game.
   843. spivey 2 Posted: August 05, 2021 at 08:51 AM (#6032942)
I'm a big believer in xG and definitely reassess my view of a game if the xG disagrees. But I was at both those games. I watched them very carefully. I've since rewatched them. Neither France nor England outplayed the US, nor were they especially close to doing so.


Guess we can leave it at that, then.
   844. Baldrick Posted: August 05, 2021 at 01:52 PM (#6032986)
Messi done at Barca. Not totally shocking, but still...pretty shocking.
   845. Mefisto Posted: August 05, 2021 at 02:16 PM (#6032990)
They've danced this dance before, so I'm waiting until it's final. Still....
   846. spivey 2 Posted: August 05, 2021 at 03:50 PM (#6033015)
Barcelona announced on their website that Messi isn't coming back. It doesn't get much more final than that.

Sounds like Romero going to Tottenham could have been the last straw, as Messi wanted him at Barca. Barcelona is a week away from Matchday 1 and still is struggling to register non-Messi players and none of their overpaid dross seems to have any interest in leaving.

And simultaneously, there are these reports that La Liga could sell like 10% of their TV rights for an up front payment. La Liga is such a mess.
   847. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 06, 2021 at 06:24 AM (#6033126)
Spurs are very likely to face Pacos de Ferreira. A typically midtable Portuguese team that had a lucky year and finished 5th. They've also been relegated recently a couple times, so they are not exactly always hanging around the top slots in Portugal.
   848. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 06, 2021 at 08:41 AM (#6033134)
Pretty one-sided in favor of Sweden so far. Their one goal was a little lucky though, taking a slight deflection before beating the keeper right in the middle of the goal. The move was strong though, so full credit there.

Still not seeing that much from Canada in terms of competitiveness in this tournament. They've been surviving on solid defense and a little luck, and the latter has (so far) run out for them today.
   849. jmurph Posted: August 06, 2021 at 09:10 AM (#6033139)
Messi to PSG looking likely, according to the internet? Hopefully Poch can actually win the least competitive big league now, fingers crossed!
   850. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 06, 2021 at 09:16 AM (#6033142)
Really wish Messi would go somewhere else. I won't be watching any PSG games except in the CL, and I won't be rooting for PSG under any circumstances. Would be nice to root for Messi.
   851. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 06, 2021 at 09:24 AM (#6033146)
Well. Canada earns another penalty on a close play, but looked like the right call. 1-1 and game on.
   852. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 06, 2021 at 09:47 AM (#6033155)
Second half was much closer. Sweden still looks more dangerous absent the penalty, but Canada brought some action to the offensive end finally. Sweden looks a little tired,
   853. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 06, 2021 at 10:10 AM (#6033168)
Sweden has settled for way too many long distance shots. They need a little more patience.
   854. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 06, 2021 at 10:30 AM (#6033175)
Sweden will likely have won the xG on this one by quite a bit, in the end. Maybe even if you include the Canada penalty.

But it goes to pens anyway after 120 minutes.
   855. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 06, 2021 at 10:50 AM (#6033176)
Canada wins on penalties! Super unlikely result, as they were outshot, and likely out xGed, by some enormous number this tournament, including in both the semis and finals.

Some poor penalties today. Even the winning one wasn't very good.
   856. The Marksist Posted: August 06, 2021 at 10:52 AM (#6033177)
Some poor penalties today. Even the winning one wasn't very good.


Those looked like some tiiiiiiiiired penalty takers. Basically two decent pens in the whole sequence. Wild.
   857. spivey 2 Posted: August 06, 2021 at 11:01 AM (#6033179)
Just watched the penalties. Man, that Canadian woman who went top bins on the 5th pen to keep them in it... nerves of ####### steel to pull that off.
   858. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 06, 2021 at 11:17 AM (#6033181)
Yeah that one was excellent! The first Canada one was also good. A couple of the Swedish ones were ok too. But that was out of 12.
   859. Mefisto Posted: August 06, 2021 at 03:13 PM (#6033245)
   860. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 06, 2021 at 03:43 PM (#6033260)
Not that fun to pick how EPL teams will finish this year, unless you want to pick some big upsets. The top half of the league is stratified into fairly clear groups (at least as of today). Bottom half might be more interesting right now.

Of course, even in the top half there will be some surprises ultimately. It's just very hard to bet on them ahead of time this year.
   861. The Marksist Posted: August 06, 2021 at 04:08 PM (#6033271)
Seems like we're about to need a new season thread. Start fresh and all?
   862. Mefisto Posted: August 06, 2021 at 05:13 PM (#6033284)
Jose said he would put up a new one.
   863. Mefisto Posted: August 08, 2021 at 11:36 AM (#6033444)
Looks like Messi really is going to PSG.
   864. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 09, 2021 at 08:35 AM (#6033508)
PSG is now CL favorites, with City not far behind as second most likely to win it.

Bayern, Chelsea, and Liverpool are next, but pretty far back.

Then United, Madrid, Juve, Barcelona, Atleti.

Then the next 6 are all in the top 4 (Inter, Dortmund, Sevilla, Leipzig, Atalanta, Milan).

Have to get all the way down to Lille/Porto/Ajax as 17th most likely before you get to a team out of the top4 (plus PSG).
   865. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: August 09, 2021 at 09:09 AM (#6033512)
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