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Saturday, February 29, 2020

OT Soccer Thread - Spring 2020

Other thread isn’t accepting comments so it’s time for a new thread!

Second Legs of the round of 16;

March 10;
Valencia-Atalanta (1-4)
Leipzig-Tottenham (1-0)

March 11;
PSG-Dortmund (1-2)
Liverpool-Atleti (0-1)

March 17;
ManCity-Real Madrid (2-1)
Juventus-Lyon (0-1)

March 18;
Bayern-Chelsea (3-0)
Barca-Napoli (1-1)

Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: February 29, 2020 at 07:40 PM | 361 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off topic, soccer

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   1. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: February 29, 2020 at 07:47 PM (#5927317)
News from the previous thread that deserves a cross post (Not mine);

Hoffenheim/Bayern postponed in the 76th minute (Bayern up 0-6) reportedly due to Bayern fans abusing the Hoffenheim owner from the stands?


Yeah, Bayern fans had a sign calling Dietmar Hopp a son of a whore. Pretty childish on the fans' part, but the decision to suspend the game (they did finish, just kicking the ball back and forth around the circle) seems like an over-reaction. Hopp is a divisive figure due to Germany's ownership rules, and it seems like the DFB has decided some attacks that were over the line are justification for over-reacting to something like this.
   2. Mefisto Posted: February 29, 2020 at 08:17 PM (#5927319)
Thanks for catching that and posting this.
   3. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: February 29, 2020 at 09:56 PM (#5927329)
So in the EPL 1, 3, and 4 lost to 19, 20, and 17, and 16 also won. As someone with a soft spot for Norwich, this weekend went from great to treading water real fast.
   4. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 29, 2020 at 11:52 PM (#5927337)
All 7 relegation-threatened teams were on the road last week, and managed a single point among them all (Brighton). All were at home this week, and all got at least a point except, once again, Brighton. Bournemouth and Newcastle had draws, and Villa was postponed for the League Cup.

That's basically treading water for Norwich, since they are still easily bringing up the rear, but it's not good for Bournemouth and Villa either.

The fun continues, because next week they are all on the road again, and the week after all at home again.

Current relegation odds:

Norwich       91
Villa         63.5
Bournemouth   54.5
West Ham      30.5
Watford       23
Brighton      22
Newcastle     12.5

(Field)       3

   5. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: March 01, 2020 at 01:57 AM (#5927341)
Germany's ownership rules sound unreal to an over-Americanized sports fan like me.
   6. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: March 01, 2020 at 10:08 AM (#5927352)
The goalkeeping in the United-Everton game has been underwhelming.
   7. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 01, 2020 at 10:36 AM (#5927353)
United has not been good in the second half. Neither team has been that creative, but Everton has been in control for the most part. Quite a change from the first half when United was running them a bit ragged.
   8. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 01, 2020 at 10:41 AM (#5927354)
Physio sends Sidibe back on after a knock without getting permission, surprising the ref and earning a yellow for Sidibe. Seems like Everton should know the rules?
   9. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: March 01, 2020 at 10:45 AM (#5927355)
I think the last time I saw that was my freshman year in high school was when Ned Joyner just ran willy-nilly onto the field. Fortunately the ref didn’t see it which was impressive since our coach Drunk Mr. Morris was screaming “don’t go on without permission!”
   10. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: March 01, 2020 at 10:49 AM (#5927356)
Wow what a save by Pickford.
   11. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 01, 2020 at 10:54 AM (#5927359)
I think that offside should be the right call, based on common sense on what "interfering" in play should mean, but it doesn't seem like the leagues have been terribly consistent calling those plays.
   12. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 01, 2020 at 10:56 AM (#5927360)
I think United was lucky to get a draw. They were probably outplayed at least slightly, and they also gave away a freebie--that's usually enough for a loss. They did have the best chance of the game though.

Ancelotti with a red after the whistle.
   13. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 01, 2020 at 11:24 AM (#5927363)
The big Leipzig/Leverkusen ends in a draw. That could be a big point for Leverkusen in their CL hunt, but it's a bigger dropped 2 points for Leipzig chasing Bayern.
   14. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: March 01, 2020 at 12:04 PM (#5927369)
See I would argue that common sense should argue that the player on the ground didn’t alter or interfere with the play in any way. As Kyle Martino said postgame, had Sigurdsson not been there DeGea would have reacted exactly the same way he did.

On the subject of VAR Villa surrender a goal after an incorrect corner is given to City. It’s just crazy to me that a guy is a millimeter offsides 30 seconds ago and that can be reviewed but a corner that should have been a goal kick that leads to an immediate goal can’t be reviewed.
   15. Slutty Nutkins (CoB). Posted: March 01, 2020 at 01:21 PM (#5927373)
Whoooo boy, Spurs.

Had no interest in watching this match ... and it did not disappoint.

This season is like watching Sideshow Bob step on rakes.

   16. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 01, 2020 at 03:27 PM (#5927380)
EPL odds. Top 5 estimated only

                top 4   top 5   top 6

Leicester       80.5    91      96
Chelsea         53.5    69      85
Manchester Utd  25.5    48      66
Wolves          19.5    36      57
Tottenham       9.5     28      43
Sheffield Utd   5       12      19.5
Arsenal         5       12      24.5
Everton         1       4       6.5


   17. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 02, 2020 at 11:52 AM (#5927506)
Liverpool non-penalty xGD and xPoints per game (understat):

Liverpool   npxGD   xPoints
2016-2017:  0.70    1.84
2017-2018:  1.16    2.09
2018-2019:  1.20    2.20
2019-2020:  1.00    2.07

Manchester City
2016-2017:  1.25    2.25
2017-2018:  1.64    2.40
2018-2019:  1.79    2.39
2019-2020:  1.55    2.32


We all know City has slipped a tad, but there's evidence that the same is true of Liverpool.
   18. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 03, 2020 at 01:13 AM (#5927703)
More fun with ELO (clubelo.com). Once it is updated for this weekend's games, the only teams outside the big 4 that will currently be in the top 25 are PSV and Ajax, with Ajax barely hanging on to the 25th spot. I can't remember that ever happening before. The results in Europe this year have heavily skewed toward the big 4 leagues overall.

8 from England, 6 from Spain, 5 from Italy, 4 from Germany (with Gladbach hovering as the 5th). Everton and Sociedad are close as well.
   19. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 03, 2020 at 02:04 PM (#5927796)
Next week's Valencia/Atalanta will be played to an empty stadium. Concern seems to be bringing in the fans from Lombardy. We might see this happen a lot over the next couple months.

If TV audience is where the lion's share of the money is coming from, then there is good reason to let the games go ahead behind closed doors.
   20. Slutty Nutkins (CoB). Posted: March 03, 2020 at 04:30 PM (#5927827)
Also
Inter Milan, who have seen each of their last two Serie A matches postponed due to the virus, will face Getafe in their Europa League round-of-32 second leg in Spain behind closed doors.
   21. spivey Posted: March 04, 2020 at 08:56 AM (#5927911)
There's a 442 article about Ndombele and his shambolic fitness. There's a pretty damning video in the article, here. I don't see this ending well.

In fact, I'm not sure I ever remember seeing a midfielder with such poor fitness.
   22. Mefisto Posted: March 04, 2020 at 09:47 AM (#5927926)
For manchestermets: A gif of all the times Fred has been nutmegged this year, most in the league.
   23. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 04, 2020 at 05:05 PM (#5928181)
Sheffield United v Arsenal
Newcastle v Manchester City
Leicester v Chelsea
Spurs/Norwich v Manchester United/Derby.

So far all the EPL teams won this round. Also, top 6+3 teams so far have only beaten by top 6 teams. (Liverpool over Everton, United over Wolves, Chelsea over Liverpool). 6 still remain out of 10 teams.

None of the top 6 will face each other in the next round, unless Spurs and United both win. Favorites will also all be on the road, pending the results of this game and the game tomorrow.
   24. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 04, 2020 at 05:12 PM (#5928184)
Also, I know it's always an achievement to win the FA Cup, as City is very likely to do yet again, but it's easier if the best team you face to reach the semis is Fulham.
   25. frannyzoo Posted: March 04, 2020 at 05:15 PM (#5928186)
I can't imagine Mourinho much enjoys slumming into penalties in the 5th Round of the FA Cup v. Norwich. Hee. Hee. I don't know if Portuguese has a single word equaling "schadenfreude," but am happy to settle on "Jose."
   26. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 04, 2020 at 05:30 PM (#5928188)
Spurs make only 2 of their kicks.

If Man United win as expected, it will be four EPL underdogs against the remaining 4 of the top 6. Sheffield United and Leicester might actually be favorites since they are at home, but if so it will be slight.
   27. frannyzoo Posted: March 04, 2020 at 05:30 PM (#5928189)
And the happiness continues as the Canaries, particularly Krul and Cantwell, put Norwich into the Quarters and Jose deeper into "Why the Hell did Spurs hire this blowhard in the first place?" territory.
   28. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: March 04, 2020 at 07:31 PM (#5928205)
I don't know if Portuguese has a single word equaling "schadenfreude,"

The Portuguese word for "schadenfreude" is "schadenfreude."
   29. Mefisto Posted: March 04, 2020 at 07:39 PM (#5928208)
Some team should hire Krul and keep him on the roster just for shootouts.
   30. frannyzoo Posted: March 04, 2020 at 08:06 PM (#5928212)
FP: Given all the English smashed into today's German, it must be restorative that at least one purely German word has successfully invaded and remained world-wide. Sorry, it's hard not to use "invaded" here.
   31. Mefisto Posted: March 04, 2020 at 08:18 PM (#5928218)
Backpfeifengesicht never gets the credit it deserves.
   32. Baldrick Posted: March 04, 2020 at 08:34 PM (#5928220)
FP: Given all the English smashed into today's German, it must be restorative that at least one purely German word has successfully invaded and remained world-wide. Sorry, it's hard not to use "invaded" here.

It's truly part of the zeitgeist.
   33. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 04, 2020 at 08:56 PM (#5928226)
It's only the quarterfinals, and City is already being given over 50% to win the FA cup. It's not like the remaining teams are all cap, either.

Next best odds is Chelsea, at 11%.
   34. Slutty Nutkins (CoB). Posted: March 05, 2020 at 04:30 AM (#5928255)
This season is like watching Sideshow Bob step on rakes.


Eric Dier is facing a potentially lengthy ban after becoming involved in a confrontation with a Tottenham supporter after his side’s FA Cup defeat by Norwich on Wednesday.
...
Several videos of the incident were posted on social media that clearly showed Dier vaulting the advertising hoardings before clambering over several rows of seats to reach the supporter in question. A heated exchange followed that saw the 26-year-old repeatedly lunge towards his target before stewards rushed over to intervene.


Yup, called that one ...
   35. Slutty Nutkins (CoB). Posted: March 05, 2020 at 04:34 AM (#5928256)
Backpfeifengesicht never gets the credit it deserves.


It sure as hell does from me. I've loved it ever since I came across it (I think I might have been the first person to use it on BBTF ((not saying first to know it)), which is not a brag, just a "OMG ... this word is AMAZING", it must be shared sort of thing)... in a Cracked article, IIRC, though I think they used punch and it's more accurately slapped ...

Backpfeifengesicht
   36. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: March 05, 2020 at 06:29 AM (#5928257)
Given all the English smashed into today's German, it must be restorative that at least one purely German word has successfully invaded and remained world-wide. Sorry, it's hard not to use "invaded" here.

I don't think German's experience a lot of angst about that. They often start learning English shortly after kindergarten, so it doesn't take a wunderkind to be quite aware of how many English words are sneakily doppelgängers. Besides, if they do need to let off some steam, they can always blitz down the autobahn, and let the fahrvergnugen relieve some stress.
   37. The Marksist Posted: March 05, 2020 at 09:12 AM (#5928270)
Some team should hire Krul and keep him on the roster just for shootouts.


I have a deep, reflexive dislike of Krul. He seems like suuuuuuuuch an a**hole. Seems to work to his advantage during penalties, though!
   38. Slutty Nutkins (CoB). Posted: March 05, 2020 at 11:22 AM (#5928303)
Some team should hire Krul and keep him on the roster just for shootouts.


I think I want this guy:

One of the wildest upsets in the history of the German Cup took place on Tuesday night, with fourth-division FC Saarbrücken taking down Bundesliga side Fortuna Düsseldorf. Saarbrücken goalkeeper Daniel Batz came up with an outrageous five penalty saves — one in the second half, then four in the shootout.


Semi-pro goalkeeper saves 5 penalties to beat Bundesliga team
   39. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 05, 2020 at 07:54 PM (#5928405)
Leicester are slight favorites over Chelsea, since they are at home. Arsenal still is given the slight edge over Sheffield United, despite being on the road.
   40. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: March 05, 2020 at 08:34 PM (#5928410)
That’s five legit saves, that’s not just a couple saves and a couple misses, that’s five times putting his hands on the ball and making it not go in.

USWNT is looking good. First half was a big sluggish I thought but they’ve been a force in the second half.
   41. Baldrick Posted: March 05, 2020 at 10:37 PM (#5928435)
Going into this match, Phil Neville was keen to talk up the 'rivalry' between the US and England teams.

Meanwhile, the England women have lost six of their past nine games, while the US has lost two games in the past two and a half years.
   42. The Marksist Posted: March 06, 2020 at 08:58 AM (#5928463)
Watched most of the last 60 minutes of the USWNT game last night. Both goals were filthy. Just pure, disgusting skill. Felt like England could pretend they were in it still (at least with a smash-n-grab chance), despite being second best everywhere, until Press turned around and calmly dropped that shot into the side netting from 25.
   43. Mefisto Posted: March 06, 2020 at 09:12 AM (#5928465)
There's a great camera shot from behind Press on that shot. Beckham would have been overjoyed to bend one like that.
   44. giannis Posted: March 06, 2020 at 12:50 PM (#5928543)
Link?
   45. Mefisto Posted: March 06, 2020 at 01:07 PM (#5928554)
I knew somebody would ask. I can't find the original one I saw, but here's a gif. See post 64722.
   46. Mefisto Posted: March 06, 2020 at 01:09 PM (#5928555)
   47. giannis Posted: March 06, 2020 at 01:31 PM (#5928561)
Thanks—holy smokes what a shot!
   48. Baldrick Posted: March 07, 2020 at 11:00 AM (#5928706)
The Press goal was great, but it wasn't even the best goal scored in that competition on that day.
   49. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 07, 2020 at 11:31 AM (#5928716)
Some big games in the Bundesliga this weekend. 4 of the 5 teams still competing have tough competition (all but Bayern). Leverkusen with a big win, but Leipzig only a draw. Gladbach and Dortmund play each other. It's conceivable, though unlikely, that Leipzig could miss out on top 4 completely.

edit: quite unlikely, considering their easy remaining schedule.
   50. Mefisto Posted: March 07, 2020 at 11:38 AM (#5928717)
Yeah, Iwabuchi was even more amazing.
   51. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 07, 2020 at 12:06 PM (#5928720)
xG shocker today! Newcastle with a wipeout over Southampton, on the road no less: 0.3-3.4 (538). Turns out Southampton got an early red, which explains a lot of it. Also means Newcastle is basically safe from relegation again. After looking so good, Southampton has had two real stinkers in a row.

Watford had a big opportunity against a pretty bad Palace team, but lost anyway. I guess you can't play Liverpool every week.

Is Arsenal back in the CL chase? They shouldn't be. They had a bad game against a weak opponent, at home, but got a win anyway. Sheffield United also wasn't great at home, but came away with a win. Europa is looking likely at this point, with still an outside shot at the CL.
   52. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 07, 2020 at 12:14 PM (#5928721)
In the second tier, it's all Leeds. They got the win while Fulham and West Brom (and Forest yesterday) managed only draws. Brentford did win big though to stay in the hunt. Betting odds might have Leeds as 95% or so to be promoted, their highest of the year. West Brom probably still over 90%. All 5 of those teams are still likely for at least the playoffs--the last spot is anyone's guess. At least 6 other teams still have a decent shot at it, but none are particularly good this year.
   53. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 07, 2020 at 01:26 PM (#5928727)
Eric Dier's headed clearance of a cross directly to another Burnley player is deemed (by VAR) to have reset the possession so that the Burnley handball didn't lead to the goal. That seems pretty ridiculous parsing added on top of a pretty ridiculous rule.
   54. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: March 07, 2020 at 01:27 PM (#5928728)
In the second tier, it's all Leeds. They got the win while Fulham and West Brom (and Forest yesterday) managed only draws.

Forest got crushed at home by Millwall yesterday. Rowett made some comments that suggested he doesn't think much of the right side of Forest's defense. Anyway, Preston is #6, but five clubs are within 3 points. The aforementioned Millwall has a 7% shot at promotion according to 538's model, which I suppose will make some people root for the virus (we don't care).
   55. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 07, 2020 at 01:32 PM (#5928729)
Italy’s premier football league, Serie A, could be forced to suspend mid-season if a player tests positive for coronavirus, the Italian football federation (FIGC) said on Saturday.
“We must be realistic,’’ Gabriele Gravina, president of the FIGC, said in an interview with Italian broadcaster Rai, “We need to take measures to protect athletes, and we cannot exclude the possibility to suspend the competition if a player tested positive.’


There's a decent chance at least one of the players already has it. Since they aren't testing them all, or probably any of them, they won't find out for awhile.
   56. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 07, 2020 at 01:38 PM (#5928730)
Ben Mee with one of the worst tackles you'll ever see in the penalty area. Lamela had ages to try to create contact and barely could, the tackle was so far away from being effective.
   57. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 07, 2020 at 01:45 PM (#5928731)
That sure looked like a foul in the box over the top, for no reason. Tottenham got unlucky earlier, but that last one maybe evened it out a bit.
   58. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 07, 2020 at 02:31 PM (#5928735)
xG (538)

Burnly 3.3 - 1.2 Tottenham (most of which was the penalty). This is not a good Spurs team right now.

edit: same on understat. Without the pen it was 3.35 - 0.38.
   59. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: March 07, 2020 at 03:08 PM (#5928744)
Man Spurs are bad. I don't know how we were ever going to score a goal, other than being gifted a penalty.

On current form Spurs are one of the worst teams in the Premier League.
   60. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: March 07, 2020 at 03:44 PM (#5928746)
It's going to be fascinating seeing just how far into next season Levy is willing to let Tottenham languish in a relegation fight before he admits he made a terrible mistake and pays Mourinho $25 million or whatever to go away. And then which manager is foolish and/or desperate enough to take over after that.

"Well, we've had terrible injury luck" is well and good for an excuse now, but how will it hold up if Spurs are in 16th place in February?

Prediction: Mourinho soon will start publicly throwing Kane under the bus, because he wants to sell him and spend the money on old defenders instead.
   61. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 07, 2020 at 04:00 PM (#5928748)
Dortmund with a big road win over Gladbach, but it looks like they may have stolen it. Gladbach is now looking up at the 4th spot.
   62. Mefisto Posted: March 07, 2020 at 04:17 PM (#5928753)
I think Mourinho will make a convenient fall guy for Levy, but let's face it -- a lot of this is Levy's fault because he failed to add depth to the squad over the last couple of seasons. And Poch's style, while fantastic to watch, wears down the players. Mourinho can't fix the problems, but they aren't really his fault (though he may well make them worse by publicly blaming the players).
   63. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: March 07, 2020 at 04:24 PM (#5928754)
I guess I really doubt the notoriously stingy Levy brought Mourinho in to be a fall guy for an expected rocky period--he could have gotten a fall guy for a fraction of what he's going to end up paying Mourinho for those services.

It's just really weird all around. Levy has always prided himself on buying young talent, developing it, and then selling the finished players for high profits. José Mourinho is the very last manager in the world you'd want to hire if that's your vision. Contrariwise, Mourinho's M.O. is spending big bucks on high profile veterans, never trusting young players, and aiming to win every game 1-0. Daniel Levy is the last chairman in the world you'd want to work for if that's your plan for success.

It was probably the only chance Mourinho was likely to get to manage that high profile of a club for that much money, so it at least makes some sense from his perspective that he'd take it. From Levy's perspective, it doesn't make ANY frigging sense.

Pochettino needed to go when he did. But I'll never understand why Levy didn't install a (cheap!) caretaker and wait to see who's available in the summer. Apparently Mourinho (who is said to be extraordinarily charismatic one-on-one when it suits his purposes to charm you) just bamboozled him.
   64. Mefisto Posted: March 07, 2020 at 04:42 PM (#5928758)
I agree with you, though I'm not sure Levy had the motive of making Mourinho the fall guy when he hired him. For all I know, Levy thought the defense was the problem and that Mourinho could improve that. I think he was actually doing so when the injuries hit.
   65. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 07, 2020 at 04:58 PM (#5928760)
Championship odds:

          promotion  top 6

Leeds        94.5
West Brom    93

Brentford    37.5    92.5
Fulham       35.5    94.5

Forest       12      73.5

Preston      8       39
Milwall      6.5     24
Blackburn    3.5     19.5         (have a game tomorrow)
Bristol      3       18
Cardiff      3       15.5
Swansea      3       14.5

QPR          1       2.5

Field                5

   66. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 07, 2020 at 05:07 PM (#5928762)
EPL relegation odds:

Norwich         92

Villa           61   (two games in hand, one Monday)
Bournemouth     56

West Ham        31
Watford         28
Brighton        26

Newcastle       4
Southampton     2

   67. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: March 07, 2020 at 06:22 PM (#5928772)
The story back in November was that Levy had long admired and wanted to hire Mourinho. If that's actually true then it's likely that Levy is willing to buy the excuse that it's all because of the injuries, and so Mourinho might be given a ton of rope with which to hang himself.
Levy has always prided himself on buying young talent, developing it, and then selling the finished players for high profits.
It hits me that Ole Gunnar Solskjaer might fit the profile of a traditional Levy manager. Time the firings of OGS and Mourinho just right, and OGS would make a fine temp-to-perm hire for a team looking to play youngsters and fight for 5th place.
   68. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: March 07, 2020 at 06:32 PM (#5928774)
The story back in November was that Levy had long admired and wanted to hire Mourinho. If that's actually true then it's likely that Levy is willing to buy the excuse that it's all because of the injuries, and so Mourinho might be given a ton of rope with which to hang himself.


Exactly. That's what fascinates me--just how close a shave with the prospect of actual relegation will the team have to get to scare Levy into admitting it was the biggest mistake of his life?
   69. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: March 07, 2020 at 08:58 PM (#5928781)
Dortmund with a big road win over Gladbach, but it looks like they may have stolen it. Gladbach is now looking up at the 4th spot.

I thought Dortmund had the better of it, though I am biased. Not by so much that a draw would have been outrageous, but by enough that I think they win the game more often than not. For what it's worth, the German announcers concluded that it was a 'verdienter Sieg,' an 'earned win.'

Gladbachs goal came from a corner. Not particularly well defended. But the initial shot was mishit enough, that another Gladbach player could direct it towards goal. Who was being played on by Haland, who was clearly meant to push up off the line with everyone else. Like I said, not well defended. Other than that, they only really had one very good chance, which admittedly was one of those 100% chances, that really should have found the back of the net.

But Dortmund will feel that they should have scored more as well. Sancho curled one (not quite enough) onto the inside of the post, which he is probably still wondering how it didn't go in. Hazard had already started celebrating, when he had a header that was just barely scraped off the line by Somer. Haland had a chance clear through on goal that he blasted over the keeper and over the bar, and probably killed somebody in the stands.

It did turn into a very... feisty match, especially after the 2-1. Lots of frankly dirty fouls. A couple of scrums and pushing matches. Lots of yellow cards. To the point where the announcers were openly wondering when, and not if, somebody would get sent off. Probably one or two players just about got away with it.
   70. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 07, 2020 at 09:48 PM (#5928783)
I only saw a bit of the game, so only saw some of those chances. The Somer save was great, but the header was far enough away from goal that it isn't scored often, which is also why Somer had the chance to get down and get it. Was a wide-open header though, so probably underrated a bit by xG. Sancho's effort was also low percentage. The blasted Haaland shot was rated by far Dortmund's highest chance of the game, at 0.43 xG (2nd and 3rd most were the two goals, combined for 0.45).

According to xG, Gladbach had 5 big chances, on average just as good as Haaland's, and only scored one of them. All the other stat were pretty much even. Seems hard to call it as better than a draw for Dortmund.
   71. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 07, 2020 at 09:59 PM (#5928784)
Just watched the highlights. Through 50 minutes it was very one-sided (7-2 on highlights or so). That's where Gladbach built their huge led in xG. They had the 4 best chances over that period, and had out xG'd them 2.0-0.4.

After that, Gladbach didn't have any other chances of note until the big one at the end, while Dortmund had their two biggest chances, including the second goal and Haaland's late miss.

xG: 2.6-1.3 (understat); 2.7-1.3 (538, but Dortmund had the edge in non-shot xG).

Infogol had it a little closer at 2.1-1.4.

edit: due to relative quality of teams and Gladbach being at home, 538 had it as a slightly negative performance by Dortmund, and slightly positive by Gladbach. Mostly neutral though.
   72. Slutty Nutkins (CoB). Posted: March 08, 2020 at 05:23 AM (#5928802)
will the team have to get to scare Levy into admitting it was the biggest mistake of his life?


Well, I'd say the biggest mistake was getting distracted by "cheese rooms", not buying a player for 2 transfer windows and not fully giving Poch what he needed, but ... yeah, I'd be fine with hiring Mourinho being second on that list ...

I'm so happy I decided to stop watching Spurs this season.
   73. Slutty Nutkins (CoB). Posted: March 08, 2020 at 05:39 AM (#5928803)
But as a Spurs fan, we always have to remember what Levy said last September: "“We could have easily spent more money on players. Who knows if that would have bought us more success or not."
I remember reading that and thinking, ruh roh ...
   74. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 08, 2020 at 09:03 AM (#5928806)
Serie A was "suspended indefinitely" a minute before kickoff of the Parma/SPAL game this morning. Then they called off the calling off, so the game is back to being played right now. Already all the games are behind closed doors.

   75. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 08, 2020 at 02:44 PM (#5928832)
I missed most of the Manchester derby, but it seems United was able to stifle City's offense all game. By xG, it was City's worst performance of the year.

Also, I must have missed the Martial chance in the 49th minute. Infogol gave it a .73 xG, but understat gave it a .93! Was it really that much of a sitter?

edit: it was the error by Ederson. Martial got the slightest of touches at the goal mouth before Ederson was able to clear it. At best a 50/50 chance (and probably less in reality)--heavily overrated by xG due to the goalmouth location.
   76. Mefisto Posted: March 08, 2020 at 04:03 PM (#5928841)
Ederson spent the whole game trying to make DeGea feel better about the Everton goal.
   77. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: March 08, 2020 at 04:30 PM (#5928845)
Ederson had a fine assist on the second goal, with the way he found acres of open space so that McTominay could run onto the ball unchallenged. Real vision.
   78. Mefisto Posted: March 08, 2020 at 04:47 PM (#5928849)
Heh.
   79. ckash Posted: March 08, 2020 at 04:47 PM (#5928850)
Ederson was a space cadet today. He should have saved the Martial goal, he gave away the McTominay goal and nearly gave up another with a poor touch/ lack of concentration.
   80. ckash Posted: March 08, 2020 at 04:47 PM (#5928851)
Ederson was a space cadet today. He should have saved the Martial goal, he gave away the McTominay goal and nearly gave up another with a poor touch/ lack of concentration.
   81. spivey Posted: March 08, 2020 at 05:28 PM (#5928857)
I'm not sure that Ederson is a top tier goalkeeper. At least, this year, I feel like his number of mistakes has been way too high.

I've been watching a lot of the Juve/Inter game. it's weird to watch a huge match played without fans. Also, far be it from me, fan of a team that got stomped by Burnley to talk #### about others, but Serie A really seems to have dropped off. The game is very slow, and the fullbacks all seem to be Tottenham level (that's bad). The game is slow and not really in a tactical way, just in a kind of bad way.

One guy who is amazing is Dybala. It's fun to think about if Tottenham had signed him or Fernandes instead of Ndombele.
   82. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: March 08, 2020 at 06:58 PM (#5928876)
I think the story is that Dybala eventually decided he didn't want to go anywhere and wanted to fight for his place at Juventus. In the end it was probably more likely that he ended up at ManU than Spurs, if he even went anywhere.

But yes, it did seem in the summer that Spurs had the opportunity to sign Fernandes and declined. Maybe due to Mendes.
   83. Slutty Nutkins (CoB). Posted: March 08, 2020 at 08:06 PM (#5928887)
I think the story is that Dybala eventually decided he didn't want to go anywhere and wanted to fight for his place at Juventus. In the end it was probably more likely that he ended up at ManU than Spurs, if he even went anywhere.

But yes, it did seem in the summer that Spurs had the opportunity to sign Fernandes and declined. Maybe due to Mendes.


Wasn't the story that it fell apart over "image rights" or something? Or am I misremembering?
   84. Mefisto Posted: March 08, 2020 at 08:40 PM (#5928895)
I'm not sure that Ederson is a top tier goalkeeper.


I think Ederson is one of the top 3 in the EPL (along with Alisson and DeGea), but all 3 have had their issues recently and none seems at his peak.
   85. spivey Posted: March 09, 2020 at 12:55 PM (#5928994)
Now Bergwijn looks like he's going to be out for a while. It's not been a good year for Tottenham.
   86. jmurph Posted: March 09, 2020 at 01:00 PM (#5928995)
Also, far be it from me, fan of a team that got stomped by Burnley to talk #### about others, but Serie A really seems to have dropped off. The game is very slow, and the fullbacks all seem to be Tottenham level (that's bad). The game is slow and not really in a tactical way, just in a kind of bad way.

My joke is that Serie A is the league where everyone has a gentlemen's agreement to not run at full speed.
   87. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 09, 2020 at 01:29 PM (#5929002)
I saw part of the Parma/SPAL game yesterday on a feed with no announcers. There was tons of verbal communication among the players constantly that you can never hear on a normal broadcast with crowd and announcers. If you ever wondered how players seem to have eyes in the back of their heads, well they have ears too and they are constantly getting signals from their teammates.
   88. Slutty Nutkins (CoB). Posted: March 09, 2020 at 02:22 PM (#5929022)
@Spivey ... just remember "We could have easily spent more money on players. Who knows if that would have bought us more success or not."
   89. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 09, 2020 at 06:41 PM (#5929106)
Villa lost big today. They now rival Newcastle for worst in the league. This is just not a good team.

Betting odds (top 5 estimated only)

                 top 4    top 5    top 6

Leicester        79       95       98.5
Chelsea          57       80       91.5
Manchester Utd   36       63       76.5
Wolves           12       25       46.5
Tottenham        4.5      14       32.5
Arsenal          5        10       27.5
Sheffield Utd    6.5      12       23
Everton          0        1        4
   90. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 09, 2020 at 07:19 PM (#5929111)
Serie A suspended. PSG/Dortmund will be behind closed doors in Paris.
   91. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 10, 2020 at 11:00 AM (#5929199)
I wouldn't be shocked if this were the last week of soccer games in Western Europe and in the CL/EL. My best bet is that it will last another week or two, then be suspended.
   92. jmurph Posted: March 10, 2020 at 11:08 AM (#5929200)
How do you think they do it, Bea? Even if they only suspend for a few weeks, I don't see how they can make up all the games, logistically. Especially with the Euros eating into the summer (which is of course another conversation, if they even happen).
   93. Mefisto Posted: March 10, 2020 at 11:12 AM (#5929202)
I think their only hope is that the virus turns out to be seasonal (we won't know until the weather changes, of course). If it is, they can probably just cancel a few games. If it's not, I expect either the season will be halted or the games played in empty stadiums.
   94. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: March 10, 2020 at 11:22 AM (#5929205)
It's hard to know what will happen, but La Liga and Ligue 1 are already behind closed doors for the next couple/several rounds. Can they keep that up if the problem gets more serious in Spain and France?
   95. Mefisto Posted: March 10, 2020 at 11:25 AM (#5929207)
I assume they still get the TV money if the games get played in empty stadiums, so that's a pretty big incentive. And if people are basically quarantined at home as they are in Italy right now, there's probably a big audience.
   96. Scott Lange Posted: March 10, 2020 at 11:51 AM (#5929223)
Right. Playing games in empty stadiums seems likely to bring in a large fraction of the revenue that playing them normally would.
   97. Slutty Nutkins (CoB). Posted: March 10, 2020 at 01:46 PM (#5929267)
Serie A is behind closed doors until (at least 3/22) ... top 2 divisions in France until 4/15
   98. Slutty Nutkins (CoB). Posted: March 10, 2020 at 01:47 PM (#5929269)
Pep has said he expects PL to follow suit ...
   99. Slutty Nutkins (CoB). Posted: March 10, 2020 at 04:02 PM (#5929303)
I have exactly 0% belief in Spurs winning today ...
   100. spivey Posted: March 10, 2020 at 04:24 PM (#5929308)
I very much look forward to the day where Aurier is gone.
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