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Saturday, February 29, 2020

OT Soccer Thread - Spring 2020

Other thread isn’t accepting comments so it’s time for a new thread!

Second Legs of the round of 16;

March 10;
Valencia-Atalanta (1-4)
Leipzig-Tottenham (1-0)

March 11;
PSG-Dortmund (1-2)
Liverpool-Atleti (0-1)

March 17;
ManCity-Real Madrid (2-1)
Juventus-Lyon (0-1)

March 18;
Bayern-Chelsea (3-0)
Barca-Napoli (1-1)

Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: February 29, 2020 at 07:40 PM | 347 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off topic, soccer

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   301. manchestermets Posted: June 27, 2020 at 08:38 AM (#5959806)
Flip.
   302. frannyzoo Posted: June 27, 2020 at 10:38 AM (#5959811)
This morning's Fox lineup for Bundesliga Matchday 34 is a perfect example of how Americans don't deserve nice soccer/fussball things.
   303. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 27, 2020 at 11:16 AM (#5959813)
betting odds.

Leicester has been falling back to earth, and now Chelsea has passed them. Leicester's hot start to the season is going to carry them to the CL anyway (assuming City is banned, and possibly even if not).

Assuming City is banned, it's likely to be only one of United or Wolves, with Chelsea and Leicester just about there and Spurs hanging on by a thread. If City ends up reinstated, it's even more wide open.

Bubble sports for Europa are now Arsenal, Everton, and Sheffield United. Spurs are very likely to be in.



                Top 4    Top 5    Top 6

Chelsea            76       92       98
Leicester          63       89       96
Man United         40       73       91
Wolves           17.5       34       73
Tottenham           3      8.5       28
Arsenal           0.5        2      7.5
Sheffield United             1      2.5
Everton                    0.5        3
Burnley                             0.5
Palace                              0.5
   304. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 27, 2020 at 11:25 AM (#5959814)
Leverkusen didn't hold up their end of the bargain last week, denying us any real excitement this week. Gladbach has capitalized with a win and a CL spot. Congrats!

Leeds completely dominated last week but lost 0-2 anyway. Fulham is looking like the better team today, but now Leeds is up 2-0 anyway. A win here and Leeds is very close to the EPL, and Fulham will almost certainly have to go through the playoffs.

Brentford's big win over West Brom yesterday puts those two in intense competition down the stretch for the last direct spot. The other battle is for the last 2 playoff spots, where Forest and Cardiff have the inside track, but at least 6 other teams have a puncher's chance.
   305. frannyzoo Posted: June 27, 2020 at 12:49 PM (#5959829)
Aspas probably ending Barca's La Liga season and I couldn't be happier. Perfect guy to do it.
   306. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: June 27, 2020 at 12:53 PM (#5959830)
The announcers for the United/Norwich FA Cup game sound like they just woke up.
   307. frannyzoo Posted: June 27, 2020 at 12:59 PM (#5959832)
Announcing games w/o fans is even harder than watching games w/o fans. And that's hard.
   308. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: June 27, 2020 at 01:10 PM (#5959837)
I’m sure it is and frankly this game is a snoozer on merit. But these are pros doing a poor job at their given task.
   309. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: June 27, 2020 at 03:03 PM (#5959855)
First hour didn’t have much too it but the final half hour of regular time and the extra time proved quite entertaining. Feel bad for Norwich who looked like they were getting it to penalties but you could see the exhaustion in the goal. That was a bunch of guys with nothing left in the tank.
   310. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 27, 2020 at 04:26 PM (#5959861)
I'm perfectly fine watching the games without fans. The only downside is the players themselves don't seem as into it, so that can reduce the overall level of play.

This particular FA Cup game today was about as exciting as you could hope for between these two teams--definitely a better watch than you could have expected going in. It was way better than the snoozefest that was Villa/Wolves earlier.
   311. Pirate Joe Posted: June 27, 2020 at 09:24 PM (#5959904)
Announcing games w/o fans is even harder than watching games w/o fans. And that's hard.


It's probably even harder announcing games without fans when you are 3500 miles away from the stadium.

   312. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 28, 2020 at 10:42 AM (#5959942)
In soccer news I doubt anyone cares about, there's a Bundesliga 2 battle for the promotion playoff spot against Bremen. Heidenheim had the one point lead over Hamburger, but trailed on GD so it was the slimmest of margins. Heidenheim also faced league leaders Arminia while Hamburger had midtable Sandhausen. Both Arminia and Sandhausen had nothing to play for.

So naturally both Heidenheim and Hamburger trail 0-2. If the results hold up it will be Heidenheim, not considered a very good team.
   313. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 28, 2020 at 12:01 PM (#5959958)
Villarreal is back! Up 2-0 at the half over Valencia. A win today puts them only 3 points behind Sevilla for the last CL spot. They also have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Sevilla.

Don't get too excited though, Vilalrreal's schedule for the last 6 games is way tougher than Sevilla's is. Villarreal has both Barcelona and Real Madrid, and also has to play Getafe and Real Sociedad, both also gunning for a CL spot.
   314. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 28, 2020 at 01:17 PM (#5959988)
And Watford heading to another loss, leaving them thick in the relegation battle. Their underlying stat have been much better than the other relegation battling teams this year (West Ham, Bournemouth, and Villa, and also Norwich who are already gone), so it would be a bit of a shame if they went down.
   315. I am going to be Frank Posted: June 28, 2020 at 01:38 PM (#5959992)
Maybe it's just rust but Mendy looks terrible.
   316. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 28, 2020 at 02:08 PM (#5959996)
Kind of ridiculous that one team has both a Mendy and an Otamendi. The names seem to be from completely different origins.
   317. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 28, 2020 at 02:17 PM (#5960002)
If City goes on to win this (which, let's face it, they will), then the FA cup has almost successfully completed the pattern of: Top 6 only losing to other top 6 (Liverpool to Chelsea) and the next 3 only losing to Top 6 (Wolves to Untied, Everton to Liverpool, Leicester to Chelsea).

But Spurs did lose to Norwich.

Only top 4 will be left for the semis.
   318. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: June 28, 2020 at 03:00 PM (#5960010)
It’s weird. In recent years it’s been fashionable to talk about the FA Cup being reduced in importance but it seems more and more it’s the big clubs are advancing deep. I suspect that may say more about the gap between the biggest clubs and the rest of EPL/Football League but still.

Can we talk about Andy Carroll’s facial hair? The best I can say about it is it is unfortunate.
   319. Mefisto Posted: June 28, 2020 at 03:02 PM (#5960012)
Maybe it's just rust but Mendy looks terrible.


He was terrible against Chelsea.
   320. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 28, 2020 at 03:10 PM (#5960013)
City should be big favorites over Arsenal. United/Chelsea could be a good one.

Manchester City has had close to the easiest opponent possible each round, including the semis. The only exception to that was when they played Fulham in the 4th round (Fulham being, relatively speaking, a quality team for that early round).

Their opponents have been:
Port Vale (tier 4, among the lowest for the 3rd round)
Fulham (playoff-quality Championship team, so quite decent for the 4th round)
Sheffield Wednesday (mid-table Championship team, among the weakest remaining in the 5th round)
Newcastle United (played like a relegation-bound team all year. Clearly worse than all others in the quarters, including Norwich)
Arsenal (perennial mid-table EPL team whose best years were long ago. ok I kid but they have not been very good this year, and haven't looked much better since the break. Chelsea and United are a clear rung better right now).
   321. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: June 28, 2020 at 04:26 PM (#5960028)
In soccer news I doubt anyone cares about, there's a Bundesliga 2 battle for the promotion playoff spot against Bremen. Heidenheim had the one point lead over Hamburger, but trailed on GD so it was the slimmest of margins. Heidenheim also faced league leaders Arminia while Hamburger had midtable Sandhausen. Both Arminia and Sandhausen had nothing to play for.

So naturally both Heidenheim and Hamburger trail 0-2. If the results hold up it will be Heidenheim, not considered a very good team.

While the 'H' in HSV does indeed stand for 'Hamburger' (i.e. the demonym of Hamburg), nobody in Germany would refer to the team that way. It's either HSV or Hamburg. Just an FYI.
   322. Baldrick Posted: June 28, 2020 at 04:36 PM (#5960031)
Baldrick I heard a bit of an interview with the new (?) commissioner of the NWSL and she mentioned she wasn’t really a soccer person. Is she a businesswoman who has been put into that role or did she come from another sport?

Yeah, she was a business person for awhile, I think making it up to a VP at IBM, and then jumped over to the NFL for a couple years and was the CMO for the US Olympic program for the last decade. So lots of sports contacts but only very limited soccer engagement.

Started the job basically the day everything shut down in March. But she's been great. Big sponsorship deals, and a ton of work to get things back so quickly.
   323. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: June 28, 2020 at 06:19 PM (#5960050)
Interesting approach to hiring the commissioner it sounds like one that is working.
   324. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 28, 2020 at 06:23 PM (#5960052)

While the 'H' in HSV does indeed stand for 'Hamburger' (i.e. the demonym of Hamburg), nobody in Germany would refer to the team that way. It's either HSV or Hamburg. Just an FYI.


I don't know, the German wikipedia page seems to use many instances of "die Hamburger" and "Hamburger SV", but not so many of "Hamburg" when referring to the team. Then again, the wiki page might be written by fans, who use "die Hamburger" as fan-speak similar to "the Reds" or "the Arsenal".

Nach einem 5:4-Erstrundensieg bei Werder Bremen schieden die Hamburger bereits eine Runde später gegen Fortuna Düsseldorf aus
   325. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: June 28, 2020 at 07:04 PM (#5960055)
Ok, so those are actually 2 different usages. One is 'Hamburger' as an adjective, that denotes something from Hamburg. The other is 'Hamburger' as people from Hamburg.

You can use "die Hamburger" in the same way that you could can say 'the Londoners' when you are talking about say Arsenal. It is simply referring to people from that place, and not a team nickname like 'the reds,' and some form of that is used with all teams. Usually when you want to stress that they are actively doing something. But this is not synonymous with the team name. People will often refer to Freiburg in a similar way, by saying "die Breisgauer"... But Breisgauer on its own is not a reasonable way to refer to the team.
I just looked up the wikipedia page for Borussia Drotmund, and it uses 'Dortmunder' 48 times. But nobody would refer to just the team as Dortmunder.

For the second part, you will notice that they do maintain the SV and don't just leave Hamburger on its own. That is because it is used as an adjective, and an adjective has to point to something. Leaving it hanging on its own is a bit like saying 'it is a beautiful.' It doesn't work. You can't use an adjective as a noun like that.

Just as an example here is a minute by minute of their game against Sandhausen. There are many, many, many usages of simply Hamburg. Including the sub-header "Hamburg verpasst Relegation und bleibt in 2. Liga." There is no usage of Hamburger that doesn't include either the SV, or is some form of "die Hamburger," "den Hamburgern."

Some others from the link:
In Halbzeit eins geriet Hamburg mit 0:2 in Rückstand
Tor für Sandhausen! Engels knockt Hamburg aus.
Hamburg fehlt nur ein Tor zur Relegation - und es sind noch 15 Minuten!
Hamburg hat jetzt wieder Hoffnung
etc. etc. et cetera
   326. jmurph Posted: June 29, 2020 at 08:14 AM (#5960091)
Kind of ridiculous that one team has both a Mendy and an Otamendi.

Even better, they have a Mendy and a N. Otamendi.
   327. jmurph Posted: June 29, 2020 at 08:17 AM (#5960092)
Maybe it's just rust but Mendy looks terrible.
...
He was terrible against Chelsea.

He's been awful for a while now. Really since missing most of his first season at City, he's been bad (he will still put in a few great crosses a game, but he's a mess defensively). It's so unfortunate because he was a great two way player a few years back. Hopefully he gets close to that place again.
   328. frannyzoo Posted: June 30, 2020 at 04:27 PM (#5960433)
Right now, and I absolutely hate writing this, ManU is playing some of the best football in the world. Their third today was a counter-attack of Griezmann with Real Sociedad level quality.
   329. spivey Posted: June 30, 2020 at 05:06 PM (#5960448)
Yes, it's hard to square thinking OGS isn't a good manager with how well United have been playing a lot of the year. Especially since they got Fernandes, but I think their xPoints were pretty good before then IIRC. And they're doing this with huge breakthroughs this year from McTominay and Fred.
   330. frannyzoo Posted: June 30, 2020 at 05:27 PM (#5960456)
Barca-Atletico 2-2 just after the hour mark. Three penalties (one retaken) and an own goal.

   331. spivey Posted: June 30, 2020 at 05:34 PM (#5960460)
I've not been watching the Barca/ATM match, but the refereeing looks awful (edit: based on the penalty clips I've seen on reddit).
   332. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 30, 2020 at 06:24 PM (#5960465)
Spurs/Blades tomorrow is a bit like a CL elimination game. Probably Sheffield United has way too far to climb, even with a win, but anything less for either team and they will have basically no chance at all.
   333. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: June 30, 2020 at 08:36 PM (#5960485)
Yes, it's hard to square thinking OGS isn't a good manager with how well United have been playing a lot of the year. Especially since they got Fernandes, but I think their xPoints were pretty good before then IIRC. And they're doing this with huge breakthroughs this year from McTominay and Fred.


It feels to me that United have for the first time in years put together a “team” rather than “a collection of players worthy of large transfer fees.” That latter approach can work (SAF’s last title team is arguably that) but you gotta get it right. I think the important thing about OGS is if he was anyone else he’d have been fired long before he got a chance to right the ship. It’s to his credit that he’s done that though. They really do look like they are well suited going forward. Fernandes looks like a real find for them.
   334. spivey Posted: June 30, 2020 at 08:45 PM (#5960489)
Imagine a world in where Tottenham signs Bruno Fernandes instead of Ndombele. Tottenham are in 4th, Poch is still the manager, and... wait, nevermind, don't imagine that.
   335. Mefisto Posted: June 30, 2020 at 09:45 PM (#5960497)
It feels to me that United have for the first time in years put together a “team” rather than “a collection of players worthy of large transfer fees.”


Exactly. And even though a couple of those players are only average, they *fit*.

I think the important thing about OGS is if he was anyone else he’d have been fired long before he got a chance to right the ship. It’s to his credit that he’s done that though. They really do look like they are well suited going forward. Fernandes looks like a real find for them.


They're still quite thin, but if they can keep their starting 11 on the pitch they'll be quite good. Not City good or LFC good, but good.
   336. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 01, 2020 at 06:42 PM (#5960634)
United really have been better in the second 16 games than the first, but not as dramatically as you might expect. They banked 24 actual out of 29.5 expected points (understat) in the first 16 games, and have since banked 28 actual out of 30 expected. They have done better in non-pen xG in the second 16 games, as in the first 16 they were earning some expected points from all the penalties going their way. (They earned few actual points for this, of course, since they seemed to miss all their penalties anyway.)

In the 8 games with Bruno, they've been +5 on npXGD and 15.5 xP, which is about the same as the prior 8 games. They have 18 points though in their last 8 games, which is a huge improvement. More importantly, they've done it against mostly good teams: 5 of the other top 8 in the last 8 games, a significantly harder stretch than the prior 8.

Most importantly, of course, is that they are more fun to watch than before.

I would rate United as a bubble CL team that played ugly and had some bad luck early in the year. Now they are a bit better than that, have stopped getting bad breaks, and are much more exciting.

In truth though, this year was a gift to Chelsea and United, and they both have little excuse not to make the CL. Yes Liverpool and especially City are great, but City seems to be banned, and Arsenal and Tottenham are having very off years. That leaves 3 spots for just 2 of the top 6 (Chelsea and United) and the 3 chasers (Wolves, Leicester, and Everton). We'll see if both United and Chelsea can take advantage, as they are expected to now especially after Leicester's loss today. By betting odds, both are solid favorites now to make top 4 (let alone top 5). Leicester is still a solid favorite for Top 5, with Wolves almost 50/50. (Tottehnham barely hanging on and Arsenal with just a prayer.)
   337. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 01, 2020 at 06:49 PM (#5960637)
On the other end of the table, Newcastle (well at least they should have been down there) are a team I've given a lot of #### for being so bad. The way they've played over the last 5 games (two before the breaks and three after) is deserving of their mid-table spot. Maybe they've turned it around.
   338. strong silence Posted: July 02, 2020 at 03:44 PM (#5960756)
Good call.

Correct call.

DeBruyne PK puts City up 1-0
   339. strong silence Posted: July 02, 2020 at 03:52 PM (#5960760)
City lucky to be up by 2. I expect 3 or more from Liverpool.
   340. strong silence Posted: July 02, 2020 at 04:02 PM (#5960764)
Robertson comes in, doesn't get the ball. City up 3.

Happened on goal #2 too.
   341. strong silence Posted: July 02, 2020 at 04:04 PM (#5960765)
The magic that Salah had is gone. Sell high Liverpool.
   342. frannyzoo Posted: July 02, 2020 at 04:16 PM (#5960769)
I've never played an EPL game with a hangover, but it looks to be somewhat difficult.
   343. frannyzoo Posted: July 02, 2020 at 04:28 PM (#5960771)
Meanwhile, Roma down a goal and with a red card now going into the half. Could Atalanta be up 12 points for 4th by day's end?
   344. The Marksist Posted: July 02, 2020 at 04:34 PM (#5960773)
Liverpool were good before the goal, and through the first half really. Had several good chances throughout, just didn't score 'em. Probably too aggressive in the press after going down, though, and got punished.

But who cares! [party emoji]
   345. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 02, 2020 at 04:39 PM (#5960774)
In more important news, the Bremers couldn't take advantage of the empty home field, only managing a draw with the Heidenheimers. Hopefully someone will score in the return leg.
   346. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 02, 2020 at 04:42 PM (#5960775)
And... and own goal. No assist for De Bruyne despite the overflowing platter.

ok well if Liverpool were good at first, they've certainly gone too far at this point.
   347. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 02, 2020 at 05:51 PM (#5960788)

Betting Odds    Top 4    Top 5    Top 6    Top 10

Man United         68       86       96
Chelsea            64       85       96
Leicester          43       77       94
Wolves             24       46       82
Tottenham         0.5        2       12        95
Arsenal           0.5        2        9        89
Sheffield United           1.5        6        70
Everton                    0.5        4        68
Burnley                               1        49
Palace                                         11
Southampton                                    10
Newcastle                                       8



The CL battle is effectively down to 4 teams for 3 spots (or 2, if City is not banned). Thrown in another 5 teams, and you have Sheffield United and potentially Burnley still as possible Europa league teams.
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