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Saturday, February 29, 2020

OT Soccer Thread - Spring 2020

Other thread isn’t accepting comments so it’s time for a new thread!

Second Legs of the round of 16;

March 10;
Valencia-Atalanta (1-4)
Leipzig-Tottenham (1-0)

March 11;
PSG-Dortmund (1-2)
Liverpool-Atleti (0-1)

March 17;
ManCity-Real Madrid (2-1)
Juventus-Lyon (0-1)

March 18;
Bayern-Chelsea (3-0)
Barca-Napoli (1-1)

Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: February 29, 2020 at 07:40 PM | 808 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off topic, soccer

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   401. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: July 11, 2020 at 02:04 AM (#5962259)
Spurs Flop
   402. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 11, 2020 at 06:43 AM (#5962270)
I don't understand what's going on in the Wigan case, but it definitely feels wrong. I'm pulling for them to get the 2 or 3 wins they need to stay up even with the 12 point deduction. That means I'm officially off the Luton bandwagon.
   403. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: July 11, 2020 at 07:06 AM (#5962272)
Bugger. Jack Charlton ✝
   404. Richard Posted: July 11, 2020 at 11:32 AM (#5962290)
Norwich relegated. You have to laugh.
   405. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 11, 2020 at 12:18 PM (#5962295)
Liverpool only with the draw, so are back on track for 99 or so points. They have to win their last 3 to break the points record, so that's certainly well below 50/50. Tying the record would be a bit easier. They don't have it easy, since they have to go to Arsenal and then host Chelsea on the 22nd. Chelsea is likely to be thick in the CL race at that point if City gets reinstated, but would already be in otherwise. Decision on City is supposed to come this week.

Yup, Norwich relegated. They haven't been good this year, but for a while, it looked like relegation might be a harsh fate for them. They've been bad the last several weeks though, and statistically have probably fallen in to the bottom 3. Relegation is no longer undeserved. (It also wouldn't have been undeserved for West Ham, Palace, or Newcastle this year, but what are you going to do).

With Watford and West Ham winning, Villa and Bournemouth are hanging by just a thread.

West Brom could only manage a draw, so it's game on between them and Brentford, who had another big win. That West Brom / Fulham game is starting to look very big. Fulham of course needs a win to have any hope of auto-promotion. West Brom would still have the inside track over Brentford if they draw with Fulham, but it would be very tight at that point.

Wigan saw few chances, and botched the ones they did have, so only got a draw at Barnsley. They are in trouble, but luckily Hull and Charlton also lost, leaving them a chance still even with the 12-point deduction.
   406. frannyzoo Posted: July 11, 2020 at 01:27 PM (#5962308)
Am fully in favor of collapses by all teams near Atalanta in the standings, and Sassuolo is always fun to watch. The team picking up Boga from Sassuolo is going to be improved by doing so, another example of Chelsea's Loan Army helping everybody but Chelsea.
   407. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 11, 2020 at 02:12 PM (#5962314)
The Chelsea loss today will give Wolves a top 5 lifeline. Chelsea have Norwich next game, but even if you assume a win there they finish off the season with Liverpool and then Wolves.

To make things interesting, Wolves would probably have to beat Everton, Burnley, and Palace. It wouldn't be easy, but it's certainly doable.

Manchester United and Leicester are both smiling about this for Top 4 purposes, but the other big beneficiary today is, of course Sheffield United themselves. Huge win for them, and while they still are probably not 50/50 for Top 7, they could be close. Definitely odds on now for Top 8, which would be Europa if City is banned and Arsenal doesn't win the FA cup.

Great game by Sheffield United. They scored almost all their chances, which was a bit fortunate, but the few chances they've created have all been very good ones, and more importantly, they've really stifled Chelsea all game. Fully earned.
   408. Richard Posted: July 11, 2020 at 02:26 PM (#5962317)
4 years ago, Sheffield United finished the season with a 2-0 home defeat to Scunthorpe, and were booed off. They finished 11th in League one.

I can scarcely believe what’s happened since.

Chris Wilder is a genius.
   409. spivey Posted: July 11, 2020 at 03:24 PM (#5962321)
Chris Wilder is a genius.

He is. And he's not just really good at playing park the bus ####, like Sean Dyche. Them and Wolves are great additions to the PL.
   410. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: July 12, 2020 at 05:59 AM (#5962384)
Jonathan Wilson:
It’s hard not to feel we’ve have seen this all before and know how it plays out. The sense is the endgame has begun

Yeah, pretty much.
I'll never forgive Levy for hiring Jose.
   411. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: July 12, 2020 at 06:14 AM (#5962385)
Look ... if you hire Jose, you **absolutely** deserve the misery you're **GOING TO GET**
   412. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: July 12, 2020 at 07:22 AM (#5962387)
Look ... if you hire Jose, you **absolutely** deserve the misery you're **GOING TO GET**

Absolutely. But I just want to say, if you hire Jürgen Klopp, you also absolutely deserve what you are going to get.
   413. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: July 12, 2020 at 07:40 AM (#5962388)
CL and PL trophies?
   414. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: July 12, 2020 at 08:18 AM (#5962391)
Damn straight. Klopp is the best.
   415. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 12, 2020 at 08:19 AM (#5962392)
With Wolves up 2-0, it is now quite interesting between them and Chelsea. There's even a conceivable route for them to get top 4, but it likely requires they win out (beating Chelsea), Liverpool beating Chelsea, and Leicester losing to Sheffield United, Manchester United, and Tottenham.

With this loss, Everton is very likely to end up in the bottom half of the table. (Behind Sheffield United and probably Burnley).
   416. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: July 12, 2020 at 08:51 AM (#5962395)
First of all, I think I’m a good employee dammit!

Second, man am I glad I didn’t set my alarm to watch the Everton match this morning.

Third, Chelsea-Wolves on the final day looks like it could be a very interesting match indeed.
   417. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: July 12, 2020 at 09:27 AM (#5962397)
Another VAR travesty. Disallowed goal for Palace. It’s ruled a handball because it came off the arm. The ball seemed to come off the shoulder and I have a very difficult time seeing the replay as any kind of conclusive evidence that it didn’t.
   418. Howie Menckel Posted: July 12, 2020 at 09:38 AM (#5962398)
Steven Goff
@SoccerInsider
·
55m
D.C. United match vs. Toronto FC is on hold and is expected to be postponed. Teams are on site at stadium. Positive tests. Erik Sorga was not on the game-day roster, despite not being injured. Details to come ...
   419. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 12, 2020 at 10:48 AM (#5962402)
Leeds didn't look great in the parts of the game I managed to stay awake for, but got the late winner. They are all but assured of being auto-promoted now.

Palace now up 2-0 in a game they absolutely must win. They finish the season with Everton, Arsenal, and West Ham. They almost certainly would need to beat West Ham and one of the others. If they can also hold on to win today, that would put them in pretty good shape considering the West Ham and Watford schedules, and that those two teams have to play each other.

Bournemouth was in even more trouble than Villa (they had 1 more point but a harder schedule, and don't get to play one of the teams they are chasing). Without a win today they have no shot, and with a win they are still more of a longshot than Villa.
   420. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 12, 2020 at 11:00 AM (#5962403)
Statistically there were 6 bad teams this year (pretty clearly evident after half the season). Two of them (Palace and Newcastle) managed to way overperform and were never really in the relegation discussion. Another one played way below it's ability so you always kind of suspected they would get it together a bit at the end (West Ham). That left 3 spots for 3 teams (Villa, Norwich, Bournemouth), and it was always going to be difficult for them. Around the time Watford finally started climbing out of the doghouse at the end of 2019, those three have been favorites for the drop. Nothing really has changed, and despite the win today is unlikely to.
   421. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: July 12, 2020 at 11:32 AM (#5962407)
Within 20 seconds Spurs have more shots on target than they did against Bournemouth!
   422. I am going to be Frank Posted: July 12, 2020 at 11:58 AM (#5962410)
Arsenal's CB have been a disaster for so long. New players, new managers, different formations, it doesn't matter.
   423. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 12, 2020 at 01:20 PM (#5962416)
If Spurs hold on to win they are back on track for Europa, just ahead of Sheffield United for likely 7th.

For Arsenal to even have a shot at 8th (Europa if City banned), they'd likely need at least one point from Liverpool on Wednesday. They also have a shot through the FA Cup. Probably they are missing out on Europe now next year though.
   424. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 12, 2020 at 03:29 PM (#5962427)
Huge clearance ###### by Schmeichel gifts up a penalty and the game is level.

Even if they end up winning today, Leicester won't be completely safe for top 5. They have Sheffield United next, who are only 8 points behind, and who have 2 easier games (Everton and Southampton) than Leicester (Tottenham and Manchester United), Odds of Sheffield United winning out while Leicester also loses their other two is very low (certainly less than 1%), but Wolves are also hanging around and could pass them if Leicester loses all 3 or only manages 1 draw.
   425. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 12, 2020 at 03:34 PM (#5962429)
Holy ####. After doing nothing most of the game, Bournemouth get the gift to pull level, then immediately a nice breakaway to go up 2-1. A Bournemouth player wanted to celebrate with the ball so shoved Soyuncu in the goal mouth in a way that was quite a bit rude but sometimes happens in these situations. Soyncu lashed out, grappling the Bournemouth player slightly causing him to fall and kicking out at him as he was on the ground. Straight red for Soyuncu and Leicester are down a goal and a man.

Bournemouth player maybe could have earned a yellow for that, but there's little doubt Soyuncu earned his red.
   426. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 12, 2020 at 03:40 PM (#5962432)
All the top4 and top 5 hopefuls are loving this, and you might as well throw in Sheffield United and even Tottenham (who plays Leicester as well) into that mix. (Tottenham's been pretty bad, but it wouldn't take any kind of miracle to beat Palace and Newcastle, which only leaves the Leicester game.) A win by Sheffield United against Leicester would put them within 2 points, with an easier remaining schedule.

At the bottom of the table it gives Watford and West Ham something else to be slightly worried about. Probably doesn't affect Villa, because it is highly unlikely that both Villa AND Bournemouth will finish the season strong enough that one of them takes the other's non-relegation spot.

...and now a third for Bournemouth on an OG. It is over.

edit: if Leicester loses all 3 games or has only one draw (Sheffield United, Tottenham, and Manchester United) they could even slip out of Europe completely. Unlikely but not impossible.

...and now a 4th goal. Leicester is not only losing this game, they are in significant danger of having Manchester United catch them on GD.

   427. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 12, 2020 at 07:05 PM (#5962457)
Week 35 isn't over yet, but putting this out there to show the potential effect of the City ruling we are supposed to get tomorrow morning.

Top 7 and Top 8 are estimated. Everything else actual betting odds.



                Top 4    Top 5    Top 6    Top 7    Top 8   Top 10

Man United         87       99  
Chelsea            73       94            
Leicester          34       82       96       
Wolves              6       17       63       84       97       
Tottenham                    3       19       53       80    
Sheffield United             5       16       43       72            
Arsenal                               4       17       38       93
Burnley                               2        3       13       76
Everton                                                         22
Southampton                                                      9


... and relegation

Bournemouth        85.5
Villa              83.5
Watford              19
West Ham             11
Brighton              1

   428. jmurph Posted: July 13, 2020 at 08:22 AM (#5962537)
Well now that 4th matters again, man, Leicester really hurt themselves substantially this weekend.
   429. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 13, 2020 at 08:26 AM (#5962539)
City reinstated.

Leicester thought they had this wrapped up months ago, and now are on the outside looking in.

Wolves now have a better shot at the CL through the Europa league.

Sheffield United is back on the bubble again for Europa.

Arsenal's route to Europa is still probably better through the league, but it's getting close between that and the FA cup.

   430. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: July 13, 2020 at 09:21 AM (#5962543)
Called it.
   431. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: July 13, 2020 at 09:34 AM (#5962544)
There was never the slightest chance City was ever going to get banned from Europe, or ever will.
   432. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: July 13, 2020 at 12:08 PM (#5962580)
Does this mean that FFP is a dead letter, or just that it doesn't apply to megaclubs? What if UltraRichGuy buys QPR or Swansea City and spends the GDP of Finland on players? What if the owners of a team in the Netherlands or Portugal did the same? Or a team in Austria or Romania? My assumption is that the smaller the fish, the bigger UEFA's hammer.
   433. frannyzoo Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:44 PM (#5962644)
Wycombe go up 1-0 early at Wembley! Wanderers' Gaffer Gareth Ainsworth has both the name and look if Deep Purple require any replacements. Fun team to watch all around.
   434. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 13, 2020 at 03:17 PM (#5962676)
Pogba mad a bad giveaway in the United half in the last game, but the resulting shot just went outside the post. Here he did it again and Southampton scored. If I were a United opponent I'd be licking my chops whenever Pogba receives the ball in his own half. One mistake a game in these situations is far too many.

Southampton gave a similar gift to United, but Martial couldn't beat the keeper 1v1.
   435. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 13, 2020 at 03:27 PM (#5962684)
Sure enough, another bad giveaway by Pogba. Southampton was clearly ready for it and you could see it developing a mile away. He wasn't in his own half, but he was on the part of the field with little support behind him.

Got away with it this time, as Southampton couldn't get the shot off.

On the other end, Pogba made a nice pass into the box, which shows the kind of very good stuff he can do. Took an even better bit of control by Martial and good finish by Rashford, but it's those passes by Pogba that make him so much fun to watch.

It's easy to claim you can't have one without the other, but that's not particularly convincing. A little bit of Pogba's game might be lost if he didn't take so many chances on the ball in the middle of the pitch, but most of his dangerous passes, including the one that led to the first goal, don't come from those kinds of plays.
   436. frannyzoo Posted: July 13, 2020 at 04:26 PM (#5962715)
Wycombe. Congrats.
   437. Mefisto Posted: July 13, 2020 at 06:05 PM (#5962742)
@ 434-5: Pogba makes spectacular passes, but he's weak on the ball and gets stripped pretty regularly. Matic gets stripped pretty regularly too, and he's not a great passer. Playing the 2 of them invites pressure from the opposing team.

It seems to me that if players are supposed to be taken off for head injuries, a substitute ought to be permitted regardless of previous subs. I know there's the potential for abuse on this, but maybe safety concerns override that.
   438. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 13, 2020 at 06:24 PM (#5962745)
                Top 4    

Chelsea          77.5
Man United         74     
Leicester          40      
Wolves            7.5
Sheffield United    1     

     
                Top 6    Top 7  

Leicester          96
Wolves             63       85  
Tottenham          19       52     
Sheffield United   17       42            
Arsenal             3       16    
Burnley             2        5    

   439. spivey Posted: July 14, 2020 at 11:03 AM (#5962799)
Yeah, it's tough. There's basically a few options to progress the ball, especially if you're a top team and as way more teams in the EPL and around the world are starting to press more. One is through your midfielders, and that is going to require at least one of them to be pretty press resistant and have to dribble and get out of pretty dicey situations.

Pogba just isn't good enough at that, for me, to be that valve.

That was a very risky turn he made to go up field like that. His back was completely to the field, and he pretty much turned 180 degrees to start up field immediately. It seems to me like there should have been more communication from his defenders on what was or wasn't available. Maybe there was. But United also don't have the best ball playing back line either. It's definitely their weakness, imo.
   440. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 14, 2020 at 01:51 PM (#5962838)
Wigan up 7-0 at the half against relegation rivals Hull. If they stay docked 12, Wigan will likely still need some more points. They won't have to worry about GD. (They could even end up relegated with a positive GD.)
   441. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 14, 2020 at 01:55 PM (#5962839)
West Brom and Fulham finish in a draw. The locks Fulham into the playoffs. Tightens a bit the race with Brentford for second auto-promotion spot. West Brom still can make it by winning out.
   442. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 14, 2020 at 03:03 PM (#5962853)
538 only had Wigan with 1.9 xG. Still, 538 ranks them as the 5th best team in the Championship, behind only the real hopefuls for the prem next year: Leeds, Brentford, West Brom and Fulham. Odds are high that 3 of those 4 will be promoted.

(If we are being fair here, 538 thinks Leeds and Brentford are by far the two best, followed distantly by West Brom, and fairly distantly again by Fulham.)

Wigan will stay up with 2 wins (at least, it's a virtual certainty), and likely would with a win and a draw. With Luton currently winning, anything less probably won't cut it. Wigan has Charlton next, and a win there could really help since Charlton is also battling relegation. Finishes off the season against Fulham, who will have nothing to play for and might be resting up for the playoff.
   443. frannyzoo Posted: July 14, 2020 at 03:11 PM (#5962855)
Luton Town up a goal via penalty in the 20th. The Boro result didn't help, but let's see what Huddersfield fails to do at Wednesday. Also, Hull with a memorable 1st Half. If Luton have a "friend" here though, it's probably Charlton Athletic.
   444. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 15, 2020 at 01:06 PM (#5963069)
Burnley/Wolves might be the most important, and most evenly matched, game of the day. Considering how these tow teams tend to play, it also has the potential to be the most boring. At least Traore is starting.
   445. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 15, 2020 at 01:34 PM (#5963076)
Burnley apparently has no bench. Seems like a big disadvantage when 5 subs are allowed.

The latest is that the EPL will allow 5 all next year.
   446. jmurph Posted: July 15, 2020 at 02:04 PM (#5963085)
Cool and fun to discover that today’s premier league games are on a streaming app that the vast majority of the streaming market has no access to (yeah yeah laptops, but come on).
   447. spivey Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:09 PM (#5963106)
Tottenham got a result they didn't deserve, though the late goal for Tottenham will make xG a bit more flattering.

Wolves got ###### by that late penalty, imo. I sincerely think VAR has made the game worse. Not just slowing it down, but the kind of things they're penalizing aren't what people were asking for, or what was really needed. That handball didn't really affect the play, it was going to bounce harmlessly out of danger without hitting him, and frankly the high boot/dangerous play rule which I've never understood how/when it's applied seems like it it could reasonably apply here. He's only bringing his arm up because of the high boot on the attempted bicycle kick. There have been countless VARs not overturned since the restart on fouls, non-fouls, etc.

I'm to understand this is more of a problem in England than elsewhere.
   448. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:09 PM (#5963108)
Wolves blew it at the last second, and now have virtually no shot at Top 4 (United and Leicester would have to draw, and each get at most one point from their other 2 games. Won't happen.)

Didn't see a second of the City game, but they lost the xG battlet 0.5-2.1, and Bournemouth still lost. Probably City didn't try too hard up 2-0 most of the game, but that's a tough one for Bournmouth.

With a win, Tottenham is back in line for Europa.

Brentford with the big win, and now by odds have maybe a 40% chance for the auto promotion spot. Forest only needed a draw and got it. Virtually assured of a playoff spot. Cardiff inched closer to the last one because Swansea only got the one point against Forest.

Charlton also only got one point, setting up a huge one against Wigan on Saturday, to go along with the Luton/Hull game also Saturday.
   449. I am going to be Frank Posted: July 15, 2020 at 04:20 PM (#5963161)
So Peacock does not support the monitor I have connected to my laptop. How terrible does your technology have to be that I have to disconnect my HDMI cable from my Macbook? Also, it requires disabling your adblocker. This is a free trial I've signed up for, but that doesn't bode well for someone wanting to pay for the service.
   450. spivey Posted: July 15, 2020 at 04:23 PM (#5963163)
Liverpool looked like Arsenal giving up those two goals, and just generally haven't been very impressive since the restart.
   451. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 15, 2020 at 04:34 PM (#5963170)
It's possible Wolves will be going into the final weekend needing at least a draw for Europa. And, conceivable that at the same time Chelsea would need a win for the CL.

Without anything really to play for when they got back, it must have been, and still be, pretty hard for Liverpool to stay motivated. (If they had forfeited the remainder of their games it turns out they would have still won the EPL anyway, and even back in mid-March they would have been favored to win it without a single further point.)
   452. spivey Posted: July 15, 2020 at 04:38 PM (#5963173)
Without anything really to play for when they got back, it must have been, and still be, pretty hard for Liverpool to stay motivated. (If they had forfeited the remainder of their games it turns out they would have still won the EPL anyway, and even back in mid-March they would have been favored to win it without a single further point.)


Perhaps. I'm inclined to give some leeway. But the first match was against their rivals, Everton. They got their doors blown off by City. Klopp seems annoyed by how they're playing, and had said they were chasing the points record (which is out of reach if they lose today).
   453. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 15, 2020 at 05:26 PM (#5963184)
I'm guessing Liverpool won't be favored by much over Chelsea.

ELO will have City as ahead of Liverpool again after the games today. 538 has had City ahead all season of course.

edit: Arsenal plays Villa and Watford, and now has a very real shot at Europa. Wolves are not at all assured of Europa even.

   454. spivey Posted: July 15, 2020 at 05:39 PM (#5963188)
I didn't realize the extent to which Atalanta had closed the gap. That makes them drawing Juve on a couple of clownshoes penalties all the more annoying.

Juve really is falling apart here.
   455. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: July 15, 2020 at 06:43 PM (#5963200)
Ugh, that's a couple of games the Wolves have blown in the dying minutes lately. A win would have given them a decent shot at least to climb to 5th by the end of the season, but it's going to be really difficult now.
   456. The Marksist Posted: July 15, 2020 at 07:04 PM (#5963204)
Liverpool looked like Arsenal giving up those two goals, and just generally haven't been very impressive since the restart.


It's hard to fake intensity and focus, and without stakes, it's not surprising there's a drop-off. Plus, variance was always gonna get 'em at some point. And while I definitely preferred the never-make-mistakes, get-all-the-bounces, win-all-your-games Liverpool over this version, who cares!
   457. The_Ex Posted: July 15, 2020 at 08:29 PM (#5963223)
The latest is that the EPL will allow 5 all next year.

I was thinking about next season recently. The following numbers are all rough estimates....

Usually the EPL season starts in August and runs to early May. Lets say the season lasts 39 weeks and the teams have to play 38 games. For 2020/2021 the season will start approx. 5 weeks late. Then we have to take out four international breaks and at least three FA cup breaks. So now the teams need to play 38 games in 27 weeks. Thats close to 1.56 games per week. Teams that play in the European leagues will have two games per week almost every week.

So....

5 subs are approved to avoid burnout

Squad depth will become more important

Injuries could be a problem

This all assumes no COVID delays in 20/21.



On a related note, most teams appear to be rotating very little. I had thought that, after the layoff, teams would rotate a lot. But as far as I can see, they are rotating very little. Man City have rotated, they have the players to do it, while Burnley and Palace don't have the players and rarely rotate. There has been some comments in the last couple of days that some of the players are starting to look sluggish. Recently injuries have cropped up, Ake, Cahill and St Maximim come to mind.

Can the teams roll out the same 11 for all of the 20/21 season?
   458. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 15, 2020 at 08:56 PM (#5963233)
Today on the broadcast they said Burnley's bench was all from their reserves except for 2 guys. Not sure how true it all is, but they only used 3 subs, and this was their bench. None of the guys that was left on the bench has an appearance for Burnley, so seems legit. (oops, looks like Max Thompson had a 3 minute cameo at some point).

7  Jóhann Gudmundsson
12 Robbie Brady
27 Matej Vydra

(unused)

15 Bailey Peacock-Farrell
34 Jimmy Dunne
41 Josh Benson
45 Anthony Driscoll-Glennon
44 Mace Goodridge
33 Max Thompson




As the game wore on Burnley actually looked better. Go figure. Looked best in the last 10 minutes when they leveled.
   459. Mefisto Posted: July 16, 2020 at 12:43 PM (#5963371)
   460. spivey Posted: July 16, 2020 at 03:31 PM (#5963425)
Leicester absolutely dominated Sheffield in a match that was important to each teams' Europe hopes. Leicester maintain the inside track for 4th place. Though it's likely coming down to the Leicester/Man U match on the last day.
   461. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 16, 2020 at 04:16 PM (#5963436)
Which EPL teams care a lot about getting in to Europa, and (to my mind, more importantly) which team will take it seriously next year?

My suspicion is that Arsenal and Sheffield United would really like to get in, and Arsenal and Wolves would take it seriously. Not so sure about Tottenham for either (teams with recent CL success tend to have a different perspective) and we've seen in the past teams like Sheffield United heavily prioritize the league. I'm sure they are fighting extremely hard for the honor of getting in, and it would be a huge honor, but not sure Sheffield United would be the best representative from the EPL next year. Same for Burnley (though they aren't really in the race anyymore).

That just leaves Leicester. Obviously at this moment they wouldn't see Europa as an achievement, but would they prioritize it next year? I'm not sure about that.
   462. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 16, 2020 at 05:08 PM (#5963451)
With this win by Manchester United, it looks like Manchester United and Leicester have a showdown in week 38 for the last CL spot. They are even on points, and near enough in GD, so there is no way they can go into the last game with everything decided.

Not so fast though. If 1) Leicester beats Tottenham, 2) Manchester United beats West Ham, and 3) Chelsea loses to Liverpool, then Leicester and United can draw the last week and both make it, no matter what Chelsea does against Wolves.
   463. Mefisto Posted: July 16, 2020 at 05:18 PM (#5963457)
I'd really prefer Chelsea to Leicester, just to see Pulisic in the CL.



   464. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 16, 2020 at 05:40 PM (#5963468)
If Manchester United loses to West Ham and Leicester beats Tottenham, then Manchester United likely would have to beat Leicester by at least 3 goals to get ahead of them in the standings. Add a Chelsea win over Liverpool and United would know going in to the game that a multi-goal win was their only route into the CL. Almost certainly won't happen but could be fun if it did.
   465. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 16, 2020 at 05:51 PM (#5963471)
CL/EL odds after week 36. Relegation odds tomorrow.


                 Top 4    

Chelsea            79
Man United         77     
Leicester          44     

     
                Top 6    Top 7  

Wolves             47       75  
Tottenham          33       59 
Arsenal             9       37     
Sheffield United   11       27            
Burnley                      2

   466. sardonic Posted: July 16, 2020 at 06:20 PM (#5963476)
Not so fast though. If 1) Leicester beats Tottenham, 2) Manchester United beats West Ham, and 3) Chelsea loses to Liverpool, then Leicester and United can draw the last week and both make it, no matter what Chelsea does against Wolves.


Even better, Chelsea plays last in the upcoming round, so if Leicester and Manchester United both win, Chelsea will go into the Liverpool match knowing a loss would put them in that position.
   467. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 16, 2020 at 07:21 PM (#5963480)
Winner of West Ham / Watford is safe. Loser is at a real risk of being relegated. Unfortunately, a draw is pretty decent for both teams.

These two face Manchester next (Watford faces City and West Ham faces United). Points in those games will be hard to come by. Then West Ham has to face Villa. Two losses by West Ham while Villa grabs a point against Arsenal, and that Villa / West Ham game on the last day decides relegation.

Watford's last game is against Arsenal, so won't be easy either. Bournemouth's last two are against Southampton and Everton.

One interesting scenario is Watford losing all 3, and getting blown out by (say) City in the process, while Bournemouth wins one of their last two. Bouremouth could then advance on GD. Same with Bournemouth getting 4 points while Watford draws one of their games, potentially the one tomorrow. Villa could even catch Watford on GD, though it is a lot less likely.
   468. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 16, 2020 at 07:26 PM (#5963481)
Speaking of GD, it seems Leicester will keep the edge over United in almost every realistic scenario. If they advance over United on GD, they can thank that 9-0 win over Southampton.
   469. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: July 17, 2020 at 10:43 AM (#5963598)
Wigan-Charlton tomorrow morning is a huge game. If Wigan can take three points they have a pretty realistic chance of staying up even with the points deduction. If they drop points at all they will be in the Table-Adjusted-Relegation-Zone with one game left against 4th place Fulham. The good news for them is that Fulham likely will have nothing to play for. There is an outside chance they are playing for automatic promotion though and obviously that’s problematic for Wigan.

Current T-A-R-Z

Charlton 47 -11
Wigan 45 +1
Hull 45 -26
Luton 45 -30
Barnsley 43 -22

So a win means they hold their fate in their hands;

T-A-R-Z after Wigan win in week 45
Wigan 48 +2
Hull 48 -25
Charlton 47 -12
Barnsley 46 -21
Luton 45 -29

So a win this weekend and they survive with a draw or any two of Hull, Charlton, Barnsley dropping points in week 46. That Luton/Hull game this week really works well for them. A loss or a draw means they probably need to beat Fulham next week.
   470. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: July 17, 2020 at 11:32 AM (#5963610)
With a win, Tottenham is back in line for Europa.

Wheeeeeeee ... Thursday Night Glory in Kazakhstan
Or ... Albania ... or somewhere else where Liam Neeson would have to use his "very particular set of skills".
Life is too fleeting to watch Spurs right now.
I heard they beat the 'Toons 3-1 ... 'Arry scored a brace ... AND IT WAS AS FUN AS WATCHING PAINT DRY.


   471. sardonic Posted: July 17, 2020 at 12:08 PM (#5963616)
Speaking of GD, it seems Leicester will keep the edge over United in almost every realistic scenario. If they advance over United on GD, they can thank that 9-0 win over Southampton.


Not all that realistic, but the one I can think of would be:

Leicester 0 - 1 Tottenham
Manchester United 3 - 0 West Ham

Leicester 1 - 0 Manchester United
   472. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 17, 2020 at 01:06 PM (#5963632)
Leiester still wins the GD in that scenario (which, admittedly, is not super unrealistic).

I think you actually need United to beat Villa by at least 5 (or by 4, with United scoring at least 6 goals, and even that might not be enough ).

Leicester 0 - 1 Tottenham
Manchester United 5 - 0 West Ham
Leicester 1 - 0 Manchester United

ManU 68 GF, 36 GA, 32 GD
Leic 69 GF, 38 GA, 31 GD
   473. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 17, 2020 at 01:12 PM (#5963636)
West Brom is down 1-0 almost at half time. If they don't win today, Brentford will be favored for the auto-promotion spot.

edit: 1-1 now.
   474. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 17, 2020 at 02:26 PM (#5963669)
Pretty goal by Huddersfield very much against the run of play. 2-1 now.

Congratulations to Leeds, the best team in the Championship the last two years is finally up. (Sheffield United and Brentford could claim to be their equal, but only for one year each.)

Brentford is in great shape now, especially if West Brom can't even grab an equalizer.

Huddersfield survives for another year. Even a draw was probably good enough, but a win removes all doubt.
   475. frannyzoo Posted: July 17, 2020 at 02:33 PM (#5963675)
While the present given to Bielsa/Leeds by WBA today is good, the one given to Brentford (esp. given the respective goal difference) is even greater. Meanwhile, great to see Leeds up, finally. Is EPL ready for Bielsa?

   476. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 17, 2020 at 03:33 PM (#5963708)
A mutli-goal win by West Ham really helps Bournemouth, because Watford is getting in to dangerous GD territory. Villa would have preferred Watford to win, but if West Ham is going to win, it also helps to be a big scoreline.

edit: 3-0 West Ham after 35 minutes.
   477. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 17, 2020 at 03:46 PM (#5963719)
At 3-0, Bournemouth is effectively ahead of Watford if it comes down to GD. Of course, Bournemouth needs an extra 3 points. One more goal and Villa might even be effectively ahead. Villa/Bournemouth needing the extra win adds at minimum 2 GD in their favor (since they must win while Watford loses). That puts Bournemouth ahead by 1 GD, and Villa behind by just 1. Add in Watford's game against City and I'm not liking Watford's situation at all.

Bournemouth has Everton and Southampton, which are two decent teams that have nothing to play for. Not easy to know how those will go. Villa has Arsenal and West Ham. Arsenal is fighting for an EL spot and West Ham newly has nothing to play for, so might not show up. Watford has, of course, City and then Arsenal.
   478. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 17, 2020 at 05:10 PM (#5963748)
That last goal by Wartford is a minor help, but in all likelihood if they end up level with Bournemouth will win GD. Villa will probably not, bit you never know considering the opposition. If they both perform the same way in their games against Arsenal, then Villa would need to make up 4 GD. Two of those are automatic (because Villa would then have to beet West Ham while Watford loses to City), but the other two are well within reach because West Ham will be partying and because City.

The other beneficiary today is Manchester United. What looked like it could be a tooth and nail game against West Ham is now just an exhibition for West Ham. Manchester United are again most likely to be Top 4 (though really it;s basically even between them and Chelsea).




Relegation odds

Villa                83
Bournemouth          76
Watford              41


Top 4 odds

Manchester United    79
Chelsea              77
Leicester            44

   479. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 18, 2020 at 07:46 AM (#5963834)
Brentford has never been ahead of West Brom in the table this year. All they need is a draw today and they will go ahead.

   480. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 18, 2020 at 09:27 AM (#5963840)
Brentford looked bad today and lost. Did not seem to have any ideas in the part of the game I saw, except for one decent chance at the death.

Wigan gives up the equalizer in injury time, and are now in line for relegation again.
   481. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 18, 2020 at 09:34 AM (#5963841)
If Fulham beats Wednesday they will still have a shot at auto-promotion.
   482. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 18, 2020 at 12:16 PM (#5963857)
Luton looked the better team, especially in the last 30 minutes, and had a late winner. Hull and Barnsley are in very bad shape.

The last spot is likely to be Wigan (if they don't win their appeal for reinstating the 12 points--is there any chance of that?), but Charlton and especially Luton are still in danger. That late leveler by Charlton was a killer for Wigan.

At the other end, Fulham is still alive for auto-promotion (shockingly) and the last playoff spot has not been resolved. It's Cardiff's unless they lose and Swansea wins. It does mean that a lot of teams at least in theory have something to play for.

Wigan has Fulham, who won't be laying down now (Fulham needs a win, a Brentford draw/loss, and a West Brom loss).
Hull has Cardiff, who also won't be laying down (Cardiff just needs a draw, but Hull needs a win).
Barnsley has to beat Forest and then Brentord. Won't be easy---Brentford should be quite motivated.
Luton needs a win to guarantee not dropping, but a draw or even a loss might do it. Their opponent Blackburn has nothing to play for.
Charlton is in the same boat at Luton, but have Leeds.

If Wigan get the 12 points back, it looks very different, with Charlton and Luton neck and neck for the last relegation spot, and with Middlesbrough and Birmingham technically sill in the mix.

edit: if Wigan's points get reinstated, then Luton isn't guaranteed promotion even with a win, though it would be very likely.
rdit2: If Luton were to be relegated with 51 points, it would be high but not a record. Usually low 40s is enough to avoid relegation, but occasionally a team with 50+ points gets relegated. Since 2004 (first year of Championship) it's happened 3 or 4 times, the worst case was Peterborough in 2013, relegated with 54 points.
   483. spivey Posted: July 18, 2020 at 12:48 PM (#5963859)
He's older, but I'd love to see Gasperini in the EPL, especially at one Tottenham Hotspur Football Club.

I've watched Atalanta maybe 8-10 or so matches between last year and this, and I don't really think these players are that good. Zapata and Gomez are good, and I think Malinovskyi may be good too. But what he's been able to get out of these players the last couple of years is nothing short of remarkable.
   484. frannyzoo Posted: July 18, 2020 at 03:20 PM (#5963876)
Counting it up, I've probably seen at least large sections of 30-40 Atalanta matches the past two years, maybe closer to 50. Ilicic, missing today at Verona, is arguably a world-class player and huge pain in the ass. I'm a fan and I still almost want to punch him at least once in every fixture. Pasalic, Hateboer, and Gosens are also very good players who Gasparini has gotten 101% out of.

More than anything, the Serie A hurry up and get it over with tournament schedule has every team requiring depth at World Cup tourney levels. Same with every competition. We're generally letting that slide, because of Covid boredom, but this is a ruthless congestion of fixtures, particularly for those teams without Man City level depth.

   485. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: July 18, 2020 at 04:15 PM (#5963890)
Arsenal!
   486. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: July 18, 2020 at 04:17 PM (#5963892)
I was about to say as someone who doesn’t like short corners I don’t understand why City haven’t played one today. That’s their game and they really haven’t threatened from the traditional corners they’ve taken. And now with that goal they are in trouble.
   487. spivey Posted: July 18, 2020 at 04:20 PM (#5963895)
Good call on Ilicic. I couldn't remember he played for Atalanta and was just missing or if he was a Napoli player. Should have checked that. He has a good goal scoring record with Atalanta, though his record before Atalanta is significantly more mixed. He's a good player, though I think well short of world class, for me.
   488. spivey Posted: July 18, 2020 at 04:25 PM (#5963896)
Hmm, Arsenal look likely to beat City and now are significantly more likely to get that final Europa spot. I'm not sure if I actually want that spot or not as a Tottenham fan.
   489. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: July 18, 2020 at 04:40 PM (#5963900)
I know Aubemayang had the two goals but David Luiz man of the match? He was terrific.
   490. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 18, 2020 at 04:42 PM (#5963902)
There's actually two spots "available", since Wolves doesn't have one wrapped up yet, and still have to play Chelsea to boot. Even less likely now for Wolves since Arsenal's odds just got a big boost. So it quite conceivably could be both Tottenham and Arsenal.

I think, actually, through league and FA Cup, Arsenal has the best overall chance, followed by Wolves and then Tottenham. Sheffield United's hopes took a big hit today. Burnley still a big longshot.
   491. spivey Posted: July 18, 2020 at 04:46 PM (#5963905)
I've basically not cared about many of the sports that have been played since coming back, but City/Madrid leg two is I think the first match that's must watch television for me.
   492. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 18, 2020 at 07:24 PM (#5963943)
FA Cup odds:


Arsenal            39
United             33
Chelsea            28



Europa odds (estimated)


Wolverhampton      66         
Arsenal            60         
Tottenham          54          
Sheffield Utd      18           
Burnley             2

   493. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 19, 2020 at 11:02 AM (#5964014)
Bournemouth had a late equalizer VAR'ed off for a clear offside. To make matters worse, they gave up a second goal late, and now have to worry a little bit about GD even if the rest of the results go their way (but a City win by 2 over Watford would cleanse that).
   494. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 19, 2020 at 11:48 AM (#5964016)
Doesn't look like Spurs are ceding Europa.

A win by Leicester over Manchester United would still likely out them in the CL. Now they are risking a situation where Manchester United goes into the final game with a 3 point lead, and at least a 3-goal lead (at which point they could withstand a 1 goal loss. Not inconceivable now, but it would take at least 3 more goals somewhere, so is not particularly likely. Even then, Chelsea would have to win one of their games, which is not at all a certainty.

   495. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 19, 2020 at 01:03 PM (#5964026)
Neither team starting their strongest lineup.
   496. frannyzoo Posted: July 19, 2020 at 02:24 PM (#5964038)
Lecce's captain Mancosu blazes a penalty just prior to half, and Southern Italy weeps. Genoa 1-0.
   497. frannyzoo Posted: July 19, 2020 at 02:56 PM (#5964046)
But a mix-up leads to a cross that becomes a shot that becomes a goal. Lecce 1-1.
   498. frannyzoo Posted: July 19, 2020 at 03:22 PM (#5964048)
The best thing about sports, in that it's the worst thing, is that 99% of everybody eventually loses. That's it. That's the Tweet. Lecce keeper Gabriel has a shot ricochet off the post, him, and slowly back through his goal. Genoa 2, Lecce 1.

Correction: We all lose eventually.
   499. frannyzoo Posted: July 19, 2020 at 03:38 PM (#5964050)
So Athletic Bilbao can help keep Real Sociedad out of Europe by losing today? Well, then you know that sure as kaka (Basque) is gonna happen.
   500. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 19, 2020 at 05:43 PM (#5964069)
Looks like Getafe lost to make it all moot--both Granada and Real Sociedad made it into Europe.

If Getafe had won and taken the 6th spot, I think the one point Real Socieded got very late in their match with Atletico would have been enough to keep them above Granada, unless Granada were to have beaten Bilbao 6-0 (and, based on the scoreline, maybe Bilbao was trying for that).
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