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Wednesday, April 26, 2023

OT Soccer Thread - The Run In

The march to the end of the season is upon us.

Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 26, 2023 at 03:10 PM | 505 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: off topic, soccer

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1. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: April 26, 2023 at 03:20 PM (#6125661)

Given the Gunners' wretched form of late, and the fact that I have an exam in the morning, I feel kind of like I've achieved weightlessness in re: this match. The early de Bruyne goal really just confirmed that. I'm not disappointed because I had not expectations.

Arsenal is going to make the CL, a result that was so remote last summer that I couldn't even imagine it. They're probably going to finish second in the toughest league in the world. They might end up with 90+ points. They have, in Odegaard and Saka, a pair of world-class offensive players that would improve almost any side on earth. William Saliba won't be hurt forever. And it's a little early to say that Mik Arteta is a genius, but he has the makings of an excellent manager who, with luck, might be able to hold the team at the top the way Wenger did and nobody else has ever been able to.

But Thomas Partey is not good enough and it's driving me ####### crazy.

2. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 26, 2023 at 03:23 PM (#6125662)

Yeah this is a bit of a strange season for Arsenal fans I suspect. By any reasonable measure it's going to wind up as a tremendous season and the future is bright but knowing the title was there for the taking is going to always be tough to take.

It's kind of crazy, this game is both the biggest game of the year and also incredibly uninteresting. I don't think anyone anywhere expected Arsenal to win and then they come out and give one up almost immediately.

3. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 26, 2023 at 03:39 PM (#6125664)

Would have been a lot more fun with an early Arsenal goal for sure, but until City scores a second one (and let's face it--it seems to be coming) the title chase isn't over just yet.

4. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 26, 2023 at 03:53 PM (#6125666)

It has arrived.

5. Mefisto Posted: April 26, 2023 at 03:57 PM (#6125667)

Thank you Jose for posting this.

Arsenal are lucky not to be down by at least 4. They seem very nervous and passive.

6. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 26, 2023 at 04:04 PM (#6125668)

I was not expecting Forest to be in this game, let alone leading it late. They have played well considering.

7. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 26, 2023 at 04:14 PM (#6125673)

With a loss today Arsenal has to win out, and then hope City plays below their median expectation over their last 7 games and drops points in at least 2 of them. Not totally impossible but very unlikely.

8. jmurph Posted: April 26, 2023 at 04:27 PM (#6125676)

Bless you Jose for posting, my plan was to just continue to refresh the feed and complain internally that there wasn't a new soccer thread.

I'm not watching but Chelsea down 2-0 to Brentford at home, can't believe this Lampard thing isn't working out.

9. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 26, 2023 at 04:51 PM (#6125681)

Sheffield United is about to clinch promotion. Congratulations!

Playoff is still wide open, except that Luton and Boro will be in there. The last two teams are likely to be from the group of Coventry, Millwall, and Sunderland. Blackburn still has an outside shot, and a few other teams have a really outside shot (West Brom, Preston, Norwich, Swansea).

10. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 26, 2023 at 05:16 PM (#6125684)

Odds of Arsenal winning out: about 5-6%. Odds of Arsenal winning the title, about 8.5%. So, I guess there are apparently still some tail scenarios where City just shits the bed.

11. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: April 26, 2023 at 05:43 PM (#6125687)

there are apparently still some tail scenarios where City just shits the bed.

This will not happen. They are rolling along. Other then the dark forces that will accompany Real into the UCl semi, City is odds on favourite to take all 3 titles and judging from their form, they'd really have to have an absolute shocker not to prevail now.

To quote RayD many years ago, it's over, it's always been over(hopefully reverse curse for this Arsenal fan...)

12. Spivey Posted: April 26, 2023 at 07:13 PM (#6125697)

City's defenders and Ederson have some shockers in their locker (that rhymes!), and that can lose you a game or games. Hell, that was 90% of the difference in the Bayern/City tie. Upa made about 3 or 4 goal/game deciding gaffes, despite being a CB who is mostly every bit as good as Stones, etc.

Probably more of a factor for the UCL, though.

13. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 27, 2023 at 08:58 AM (#6125770)

I couldn't figure out what was going on with the final week of the Championship, but it turns out the full slate of games are next Monday and we have the royals to blame.

In the premier league there remain 6 games to make up. 3 are next week (Liverpool/Fulham and City/WestHam on Wednesday, and Brighton/United on Thursday). They finally rescheduled the Newcastle/Brighton game for May 18, and they had no choice but to schedule the Brighton/City game the last midweek of the season, May 24. One big surprise is that despite being eliminated from Europa, the United/Chelsea game was also scheduled for the last midweek of the season rather than one of the two earlier midweek slots, as scheduling games this week was supposed to be avoided if at all possible. It is on May 25.

After today there are exactly 5 weekends and 4 midweeks left, so 9 slots for games. City plays in all of them, with 7 league and 2 champions league games to play. West ham and Brighton each play in 8 of them. West Ham has 6 league games and 2 games in europe (they get the last midweek off), and Brighton has 8 league games (they get a midweek off in 2 weeks). United plays in 7, with two makeup games. No one else has more than 6. Every league team except Chelsea also played in the last two half-weeks (and City, United, and West Ham played in the previous midweeks in Europe as well, so have had almost no time off for a month going back).

I don't think Brighton has faced this kind of schedule before, and their games are not easy, especially the last stretch of 5 straight: Wolves (home), United (home), Everton (home), off, Arsenal (away), Newcastle (away), Southampton (home), City (home), Villa (away). I don't actually think it will happen, but Brighton could conceivably fade badly down the stretch. Losing yesterday to Forest was a massive blow considering what is to come.

14. jmurph Posted: April 27, 2023 at 09:06 AM (#6125774)

City's defenders and Ederson have some shockers in their locker (that rhymes!), and that can lose you a game or games. Hell, that was 90% of the difference in the Bayern/City tie. Upa made about 3 or 4 goal/game deciding gaffes, despite being a CB who is mostly every bit as good as Stones, etc.

There's this, which I agree with, and then also to Bea's point in 13, they have a lot of friggin games over the next few weeks. Not at all hard to imagine some dips, some injuries. I'm sure things don't feel great for Arsenal fans but it's certainly not over.

15. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 27, 2023 at 01:29 PM (#6125822)

I'd be very shocked if Chelsea lost all 6 of their remaining games and finished on 39 points, but it's certainly in the realm of conceivability (like, 1 in a 1000). What is not conceivable this year is Chelsea doing that in combination with only two other teams finishing with under 40. That must be like 1 in a million now. Probably far, far less.

Sorry Chelsea won't be relegated.

16. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 27, 2023 at 02:35 PM (#6125834)

And just to finish the thought, Chelsea's odds of being relegated were far higher at the start of the season than they are now. In fact, City's odds of being relegated at the start of the season were higher than Chelsea's odds of being relegated now.

17. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 27, 2023 at 03:22 PM (#6125847)

Three players near Sancho and he still gets that shot in without a block. Spurs just can't defend at all.

18. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 27, 2023 at 03:59 PM (#6125853)

Once AGAIN, two players near Rashford and he still gets his shot off no problem.

EDIT: Actually only Dier was particularly close, but he still got beat just far too easily.

19. jmurph Posted: April 27, 2023 at 04:03 PM (#6125855)

Didn't realize Tottenham fired the interim who basically just took over?

20. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 27, 2023 at 04:07 PM (#6125856)

He played a back 4 against Newcastle where the 'fullbacks' were Pedro Porro and Ivan Perisic. The idea of that being acceptable was definitely worthy of getting the boot.

(I don't think it's a bad idea for Spurs to play a back 4 with the appropriate personnel, but Davies and Royal are injured, and all the rest of our actual fullbacks got sent out on loan because Conte doesn't use fullbacks.)

21. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 27, 2023 at 04:21 PM (#6125860)

If these scores hold up, the top 4 race is all but over. Liverpool has just a very outside chance now.

Everton is in serious risk of being relegated now, especially with Forest winning too.

and if Bournemouth can hold on they are effectively safe. They had two good stretches this year in an otherwise pretty terrible year, but it seems it is going to be enough.

22. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 27, 2023 at 04:35 PM (#6125861)

Everton probably need 7-8 points in their last five;

@Leicester
Brighton
Manchester City
@Wolves
Bournemouth

Those last two games are likely to be against beached teams and even Brighton don't have a ton to play for. It wouldn't shock me if BHA pack it in after losing the FA Cup. In theory they have Europe to play for but English teams don't seem too fussed about Europe outside of the CL. The game next week is just ####### huge for both teams. I suspect Leeds and Nottingham would be thrilled with a draw in that one.

I haven't read much but it seems there is more than small amount of evidence suggesting that if Everton go down the likeliest outcome resembles Portsmouth rather than West Brom or some other yo-yo team.

23. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 27, 2023 at 04:59 PM (#6125868)

I'm guessing more likely they will need 8 than 7. And they are only expected to get 5.

Sure it's not over yet, but their odds of going down now are going to be around 2 in 3. It's pretty grim.

24. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 27, 2023 at 05:56 PM (#6125884)

Those last two games are likely to be against beached teams and even Brighton don't have a ton to play for.

People say this every year and I think historically it doesn't really work out in practice. The players are professionals, and still want to put in good performances to stake their place in next year's squad, benefit future contracts, etc., etc.

I might just still be traumatized from what happened in Tottenham vs. Newcastle on the last day of the season the year Leicester won.

25. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 27, 2023 at 06:03 PM (#6125885)

Relegation odds:

southampton  93

everton      64
forest       53.75
leeds        48
leicester    38

west ham      2
bournemouth   1
wolves        0.25

26. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 27, 2023 at 06:08 PM (#6125888)

Top 4 odds:

newcastle    91
united       87

liverpool    15

brighton      4
tottenham     2
villa         1

Liverpool is the last real hope to make this interesting. Any of those chasing 4 basically has to win all their remaining games. Maybe Liverpool can drop points in one game only.

27. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 27, 2023 at 06:14 PM (#6125890)

Top 6 odds:

united         99.5

liverpool      83
brighton       56
tottenham      40
villa          21

brentford       0.5

Liverpool is close to slotted in for Europa now. According to the odds, hard to make top 4 or fall out of top 6.

28. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 27, 2023 at 06:32 PM (#6125894)

Team estimates of quality and remaining schedules for the final few games (based on betting odds). Remaining schedules right now are very unequal, which is why certain teams are ranked higher than other despite being expected to amass fewer points over the last 5+ games.

             remaining                                       
        points    games   p/g   opponents still to play    
  
city         16.75   7   2.39   home: chelsea, west ham, leeds
                                away: brighton, brentford, fulham, everton  
      
liverpool    13      6   2.17   home: tottenham, villa, brentford, fulham     
                                away: leicester, southampton  
arsenal      9.75    5   1.95   home: chelsea, brighton, wolves
                                away: newcastle, forest 
     
newcastle    10.5    6   1.75   home: arsenal, brighton, leicester, southampton
                                away: chelsea, leeds                          
united       12.5    7   1.79   home: chelsea, villa, fulham, wolves
                                away: brighton, west ham, bournemouth
brighton     12.75   8   1.59   home: city, united, wolves, everton, southampton   
                                away: arsenal, newcastle, villa

chelsea       8      6   1.33   home: newcastle, forest    
                                away: city, arsenal, united, bournemouth
tottenham     7.25   5   1.45   home: brentford, palace, bournemouth            
                                away: liverpool, villa, leeds

villa         5.75   5   1.15   home: brighton, tottenham 
                                away: liverpool, united, wolves  
west ham      7.25   6   1.21   home: united, leeds
                                away: city, brentford, leicester, palace               
brentford     6      5   1.20   home: city, west ham, forest
                                away: liverpool, tottenham  
palace        7      5   1.40   home: west ham, bournemouth, forest 
                                away: tottenham, fulham  
leicester     6      5   1.20   home: liverpool, west ham, everton
                                away: united, fulham 

wolves        4.5    5   0.90   home: villa, everton     
                                away: arsenal, brighton, united
fulham        5.75   6   0.96   home: city, leicester, palace
                                away: liverpool, united, southampton
everton       4.75   5   0.95   home: city, bournemouth
                                away: brighton, leicester, wolves
leeds         4.5    5   0.90   home: newcastle, tottenham   
                                away: city, west ham, bournemouth    
bournemouth   4.75   5   0.95   home: chelsea, united, leeds
                                away: palace, everton
southampton   4      5   0.80   home: liverpool, fulham
                                away: brighton, newcastle, forest
forest        4.25   5   0.85   home: arsenal, southampton
                                away: chelsea, brentford, palace

Liverpool is back ahead of Arsenal in expectation. Newcastle/Brighton/United are very close. Chelsea and Tottenham have dropped off a lot. Even though City is in a league of its own, the median expectation is still dropping points in 2 of its last 7 games, though that might be in part due to the last two games they could know they have already won the title or only need something like a draw across both games. Also both games are away so they may have little motivation to go for wins on the road with the title already wound up.

29. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 27, 2023 at 08:24 PM (#6125908)

Brighton has 8 games left and a hard schedule, so they can definitely drop points in 1 game maybe 2 and still potentially make top 4. It would help them a lot to beat both United and Newcastle, and drop points in some of the other games, like City and Arsenal.

Liverpool's schedule is very easy going forward, so it's not unlikely that they will close out strong and finish just a few points outside the top 4.

30. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 27, 2023 at 10:28 PM (#6125932)

I realize United didn't win this game after being up 0-2, but do none of the sportswriters realize that the top 4 race is closer to done now than it has been at any prior point in the season? They are numerically illiterate.

United was bad after their starters started coming off in the 63rd minute.

31. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: April 28, 2023 at 08:48 AM (#6125959)

the 'fullbacks' were Pedro Porro and Ivan Perisic

I mean, Pedro did occasionally play FB at Sporting, IIRC. He's a bit shrimpy for the role in the EPL, but it's not completely ridiculous, if you're desperately casting about for something that works.

32. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 28, 2023 at 11:26 AM (#6125981)

There is a relegation battle brewing for the last day of the Championship: Huddersfield hosts Reading in what for the moment seems destined to be a one-off winner stays up game.

Another good one could be Millwall/Blackburn for the final playoff spot, but that one is quite a bit less likely to determine a spot all on its own.

33. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 28, 2023 at 12:04 PM (#6125989)

There's a long tradition of soccer pundits' brains turning to mush when faced with the prospect of a team having a game (or more) in hand. It's absurd that there are articles implying that Spurs and Villa are the biggest threats to break into the top 4 right now, considering how much better chance Liverpool has, and that there is nary mention of Brighton at all.

I sort of expect schedule strength to be overlooked or at least underplayed, but what excuse is there for not expecting Liverpool to get at least one point from its game in hand it has over Spurs and Villa? Brighton's situation takes a little more thought if you are just trying to reason it through, but even if you think Brighton are not as good as they have played so far, having more games to play gives a chasing team more chance to make up points. Brighton being further back with extra games is beneficial to them, not the other way around. Teams chasing have to outperform expectations to make it (for example, now Villa and Spurs probably have to win every remaining game and hope 69 points is enough), and the more games they have to do it the more likely outperforming expectations is going to make the difference. Brighton making up the 5 point gap to Spurs/Villa in the 3 extra games is about par for them, so if Broghton outperforms their expectations they will also be ahead.

There's a decent chance that one of the teams outside the top 4 will make this interesting down the stretch, and a small but significant chance that this team will even snag a top 4 spot. It's just highly, highly unlikely that the team to do it will be Villa or Spurs.

edit: also just to say Liverpool has the easiest remaining schedule, arguably needs the fewest or maybe second fewest points per game after Brighton, and is the best team chasing. They have all factors aligned for them over the other chasing teams, which is why their betting odds are so much higher.

34. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 28, 2023 at 01:40 PM (#6126004)

In the context of what ranking 538 might give Wrexham in league 2 next year, I mentioned that they had slotted Salford City very high in their first league 2 year, but nevertheless Salford continues to languish there. What I hadn't remembered at the time (until now) was that Salford is the team funded/managed by all the ex-EPL players: Neville(s), Scholes, Giggs, etc., so it turns out Salford were an apt comparison.

Salford is still right on the bubble for a playoff spot this year.

35. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 28, 2023 at 05:18 PM (#6126022)

Huge away win for Millwall today relegates Blackpool. Millwall probably gets to the playoff now even with just a draw against Blackburn next week.

36. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 28, 2023 at 05:21 PM (#6126023)

Also Dortmund. 1-1 against Bochum despite a huge, huge edge in xG.

37. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 28, 2023 at 08:45 PM (#6126036)

Apparently there was also a blatant penalty that Dortmund should have had that wasn't given.

Just watched it...yeah, the Bochum defender absolutely launches himself at Adeyemi, gets nowhere near the ball, and takes him out. How both the ref and VAR decide that's not a pen...

38. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 29, 2023 at 08:00 AM (#6126082)

West Ham took the lead from a corner, after having no possession for the first 9 minutes. A win here and the end of the season becomes a fun attempt at winning the Europa Conference, with safety virtually assured. West Ham's last 4 games are City/United/Brentford/Leicester. 37 points is almost certainly enough this year, so the pressure will be off.

Long way to go today though.

39. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 29, 2023 at 08:07 AM (#6126083)

Well so much for that!

edit: also, this game had three goals on its first three shots.

40. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 29, 2023 at 08:40 AM (#6126084)

34 points probably won't be enough to stay up, but even 35 or 36 with good GD could do it this year. A loss by West Ham today, and if they fail to collect more than a point total against City and United, it could get interesting at the end of the season for West Ham.

Palace has 37 points already, have the lead today, and have a joke of a remaining schedule. There isn't a possible universe where they go down.

41. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 29, 2023 at 09:13 AM (#6126085)

They must have seen some leg contact on that penalty on VAR, but if there was any it was so minor. That to me is one where VAR really should be overruling the call on the field.

42. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: April 29, 2023 at 10:11 AM (#6126087)

I disagreed with the decision to fire Potter, but there's something to be said about the fact that neither Brighton nor Chelsea could buy a goal for love nor money when he was managing them. Brighton has started scoring more since he ###### off to London.

43. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: April 29, 2023 at 10:27 AM (#6126089)

That was a hell of a goal from Pascal Gross.

44. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 29, 2023 at 10:37 AM (#6126090)

Ipswich has just gotten themselves promoted back to the Championship with style, with 5 goals through 32 minutes today.

45. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 29, 2023 at 10:41 AM (#6126091)

Wolves are not exactly putting on a full throated effort today.

46. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 29, 2023 at 10:52 AM (#6126093)

Forest scored a late first-half goal and now lead on the road to Brentford. A win here would have them no longer a favorite to go down--would put Everton in even deeper problems, and put Leicester/Leeds right on the bubble. It would also mean that more then likely no promoted teams would be relegated for the first time in a while.

47. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 29, 2023 at 12:21 PM (#6126101)

Another come from behind win today, this time for Brentford, and Forest is back in trouble again.

Reading/Wigan draw effectively relegates Wigan and gets us that much closer to the 1-off game between Huddersfield and Reading next week.

At the top of the table. Coventry had the big win and are very close to then playoff now, with Millwall again likely to join them. Sunderland needs a win next week and some help. Blackburn still has the game in hand but have bad GD. West Brom needs to win right now to stay alive, and Norwich only has a prayer.

Plymouth Argyle also got promoted to the Championship. By the way, that Ipswich team has a GD of 66, and 548 has them rated as better than everyone in the Championship except the top 4, 2 of which will be promoted and another likely so. Also has them just a hair behind this Forest team. Ok they are probably not that good in reality, but they sure are taking it to League One. Sheffield Wednesday also had a good year but they will have to try to make it via the playoff.

Some late goals in League Two games, and now Salford City is almost certainly playoff bound.

48. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 29, 2023 at 12:30 PM (#6126103)

By understat, Brighton is now ahead of Arsenal (and Newcastle) on non-pen xG. Still slightly behind Arsenal by fbref (adjusting for penalties). By the end of the year there is a good chance they will be second behind only City on xPoints, but with Brighton's hard remaining schedule the better bet is Arsenal holding on to second by a hair.

Arsenal along with Fulham have all year been the team that has most outperformed its undderlying stats, and even with Arsenal's recent run of form they are both still well ahead of the rest of the league. Brighton is among the most underperforming, but not by nearly as much. The prize there goes to West Ham, which shouldn't be a surprise.

edit: and no surprise but 538 loves Brighton and Newcastle these days, and is down a bit on Arsenal. The system is very volatile so a run of recent good form sends a team up and bad form sends them down, in both cases more than justified. At any rate, 538 has Newcastle, Brighton, and Arsenal in a dead heat for third, not far behind Liverpool, with City miles ahead. 538 also has Spurs as in the bottom half of the league now due to their terrible recent form, and Villa just a hair behind United, due to the mediocre form of United and good form of Villa.

Needless to say, betting odds still thinks Arsenal is significantly superior to Brighton/Newcastle, and United much superior to Villa. United plays Villa tomorrow and is being given 55% to win outright, which means they are considered far superior. Newcastle hosts Arsenal next weekend, and the game is dead even despite being in Newcastle, which means Arsenal is still considered significantly superior.

49. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 29, 2023 at 01:26 PM (#6126106)

This has already been mentioned, probably, but it's interesting that United's next two games are against Villa and Brighton, those results will likely be determinative of whether Top 4 is still in play or not for the rest of the season.

50. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 29, 2023 at 02:11 PM (#6126109)

Villa has no shot at top 4, even if they beat United by 100 goals. Agree though that United losing brings top 4 into play ahead of the Brighton game.

Speaking of lots of goals, Maidenhead has done most of their part today, trailing 3-0 away on the last day of the season. Sadly Torquay United's 1-0 lead over Wrexham is not enough. The 4-goal turnaround is still 3 goals short. 10 minutes left.

edit: oh, and Wrexham have just drawn level anyway...

(Maidenhead now losing 4-0.)

51. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 29, 2023 at 02:34 PM (#6126110)

West Brom won today too, so they are still alive. They need to beat eliminated Swansea and hope a few other games go their way.

52. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 29, 2023 at 02:43 PM (#6126111)

Just to note--538 is really down on United and up on Villa, treating them as virtually equal in quality right now. And still thinks Villa has an ~0% chance to make top 4. (To be fair, due to tail effects that 538 does not really account for very well, betting odds has Villa as 1% right now, even after the Brighton win.)

53. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 29, 2023 at 05:10 PM (#6126118)

I meant it in the sense that those are two tough games back to back for Man United, against teams that could still theoretically make it. If United wins both those games, it's pretty much over. If they lose both, it starts to become interesting, not just for Brighton/Villa, but also for Liverpool or Tottenham (pending the outcome of that game tomorrow!).

In the complete hypothetical where United loses both games, it's United with 60 points (33 played), Villa with 57 points (34 played), Brighton with 55 points (32 played). A win for Tottenham has them on 57 points (34 played). A win for Liverpool has them on 56 points (33 played). That would definitely leave it somewhat open.

54. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 29, 2023 at 05:34 PM (#6126120)

There are just not enough games left for Villa and Spurs. Villa's schedule is hard and they are expected to get 5.5 points going forward, 4.5 after the United game. They have virtually no shot no matter what happens to United, including in the game against Villa tomorrow. Spurs have to beat Liverpool or they are done as well. If they can manage to beat Liverpool and United loses both games or only takes a point or two, then maybe we can start talking about Spurs again. Chances of that alone are probably below 5%.

On the other hand, if United loses both games, then Liverpool and Brighton are definitely in play. Liverpool could even lose tomorrow and still be in play in that scenario. Their other games are about as easy as you can reasonably expect this late, and Liverpool winning all 5 is well within the realm of possibility. Liverpool with a loss tomorrow will still have a better shot that Spurs with a win.

55. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 30, 2023 at 10:30 AM (#6126170)

If Leeds goes on to lose, it could be that 34 points and a good GD is enough to stay up this season. West Ham might even be able to lose the rest of their games (however unlikely)and stay up. Or maybe not, because in that scenario they would have lost to both Leeds and Leicester...

56. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 30, 2023 at 10:45 AM (#6126172)

This might be 'anti-fun' but I think bicycle kick attempts when you're surrounded by opponents should just automatically be a foul for dangerous play. This just happened in Villa-Man United, and in fact the player attempting the bicycle even connected with an opponent's head. With the connection that should be a yellow I feel (player did not actually get a yellow here).

57. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 30, 2023 at 10:55 AM (#6126173)

And all my speculation about 'what if Man U loses both of these games' is immediately meaningless!

58. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 30, 2023 at 11:18 AM (#6126177)

The penalty kick case was even worse than you describe, because Shaw won the ball with his head and the bicycle kick attempt came late and only connected with Shaw's head with the ball already gone. I can easily see a yellow for a play like that.

59. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 30, 2023 at 11:31 AM (#6126178)

Forest, Leeds, and Everton are all over 50% to be relegated, and all projected for 34 points or less. At least one will probably finish with more points than that, but you never know. I think only West Brom in 2004/2005 stayed up with just 34 points.

60. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 30, 2023 at 11:36 AM (#6126180)

I am not sure this Spurs strategy of conceding a bunch of goals early in games is sustainable.

61. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 30, 2023 at 11:39 AM (#6126181)

Realistically Spurs were probably already for all practical purposes eliminated from the top 4 chase after the results this morning, but anything but a win here and you can totally and completely forget about Spurs along with Villa, who are now gone. Spurs need three goals now for that to happen, so yeah it's over.

For their part, a Liverpool win today gives them some actual hope, even if it is small.

For Brighton to have any actual hope they must beat United midweek now. A draw won't be enough.

62. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 30, 2023 at 11:46 AM (#6126182)

Dier doing nothing and Romero sliding in recklessly. That's Spurs defending for you!

63. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 30, 2023 at 11:46 AM (#6126183)

Tottenham has now given up 10 goals in the first half of the last 3 games combined. Still 30 minutes left here. At least they are bowing out of the Top 4 race in style.

64. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 30, 2023 at 11:56 AM (#6126184)

Leeds have now pretty clearly been worse post-Marsch, and may get relegated for their efforts. Their remaining schedule is not going to be easy: with City and Newcastle next. Their last two games are away to West Ham, who likely will not yet be ready to totally roll over, especially at home in London, unless they are totally safe by the second to last week, which is questionable, and finally home against Tottenham (who might roll over away at that point).

65. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 30, 2023 at 01:25 PM (#6126194)

Well losing that particular way is a certain kind of "style".

66. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 30, 2023 at 01:56 PM (#6126198)

Top 4 odds:

Newcastle     93
United        91

Liverpool     12.5
Brighton       3.5

Top 6 odds:

Liverpool     92.75
Brighton      66

Tottenham     26
Villa         15

Brentford      0.25

Which means Liverpool is now even more slotted into Europa than before. They need United or Newcastle to totally fall apart while they go on a run. Unless Brighton really slips up over their last several tough games, we will have a "battle" for the Europa Conference between Tottenham and Villa, with Brentford potentially making a showing (though not likely, as their schedule is hard).

Also Brighton drawing United midweek will drop them to something like 1% to make top 4. They really need a win to keep this interesting.

67. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 30, 2023 at 02:16 PM (#6126201)

Team estimated quality over last few games, based on betting odds. Bournemouth is probably not actually worst, but they are bad and have nothing to play for now, so may be considered the easiest opponent.

             remaining                                       
        points    games   p/g   opponents still to play    
  
city         14.25   6   2.38   home: chelsea, west ham, leeds
                                away: brighton, brentford, everton  
      
liverpool    11      5   2.20   home: villa, brentford, fulham     
                                away: leicester, southampton  
arsenal      9.75    5   1.95   home: chelsea, brighton, wolves
                                away: newcastle, forest 
     
newcastle     8.5    5   1.70   home: arsenal, brighton, leicester
                                away: chelsea, leeds                          
brighton     11      7   1.57   home: city, united, everton, southampton   
                                away: arsenal, newcastle, villa
united       10.5    6   1.75   home: chelsea, fulham, wolves
                                away: brighton, west ham, bournemouth

chelsea       8      6   1.33   home: newcastle, forest    
                                away: city, arsenal, united, bournemouth
tottenham     6      4   1.50   home: brentord, palace, bournemouth            
                                away: villa, leeds

villa         5      4   1.25   home: brighton, tottenham 
                                away: liverpool, wolves  
west ham      5.5    5   1.10   home: united, leeds
                                away: city, brentford, leicester
               
brentford     3.75   4   0.94   home: city, west ham
                                away: liverpool, tottenham  
palace        5.5    4   1.38   home: bournemouth, forest 
                                away: tottenham, fulham  
leicester     6      5   1.20   home: liverpool, west ham, everton
                                away: united, fulham 

fulham        5.5    5   1.10   home: leicester, palace
                                away: liverpool, united, southampton
wolves        3.75   4   0.94   home: villa, everton     
                                away: arsenal, united
leeds         3.5    4   0.88   home: newcastle, tottenham   
                                away: city, west ham 
everton       4.5    5   0.90   home: city, bournemouth
                                away: brighton, leicester, wolves   
southampton   3.5    4   0.88   home: liverpool, fulham
                                away: brighton, forest
forest        3.5    4   0.88   home: arsenal, southampton
                                away: chelsea, palace
bournemouth   3.5    4   0.88   home: united, chelsea
                                away: palace, everton

68. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 30, 2023 at 02:45 PM (#6126209)

Everton could conceivably lose their next three games (at Leicester tomorrow, at Brighton, then home against City) and still avoid relegation by winning their last two (at Wolves and home against Bournemouth). They would need a lot of help from Leeds and Forest to stay up with just the 34 points, but it's not impossible. If Forest beats Southampton next weekend it becomes very unlikely.

An Everton win tomorrow would shake up the relegation race--pulling Everton to the edge of it and dropping Leicester into the thick of it. An Everton win is not considered to be particularly likely though (24%).

69. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 30, 2023 at 05:37 PM (#6126228)

Oh look, Lucas Moura is worse than useless again. STOP BRINGING HIM ON.

70. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 30, 2023 at 06:47 PM (#6126247)

Liverpool/Brighton just need to keep winning and hope one or both of Newcastle or United really screw up down the stretch. By odds anyway there is not much to choose between the two. Newcastle has the points in hand and is currently rated the slightest bit better, but United has the easier remaining schedule. Both are predicted for 73.5 points right now. A minor reason that United has lower odds of top 4 is GD, as they will lose any GD tie breaker to Liverpool or Brighton. Newcastle is not at all guaranteed to win a tiebreaker with Liverpool or Brighton either though, because those teams have to make up points with wins while Newcastle loses, and that tends to eat into GD quickly. The bigger reason United's odds are slightly lower is the game in hand gives them more games to screw up and not get points at all.

Brighton is further back and will lose its most valuable chance if it fails to beat United this midweek. A draw would likely put United and Newcastle virtually dead even to make top 4 going forward, with Brighton all but done, though they do still play Newcastle so will retain a sliver of hope. A win by United makes them almost uncatchable, though Liverpool will still have a small chance. A loss opens the door a little more to Liverpool and keeps Brighton's hopes alive.

71. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 30, 2023 at 07:51 PM (#6126255)

The season is not over yet, but betting odds looks likely to outperform 538 slightly on team points totals. Biggest winners for betting odds by far will be United and Newcastle, with Arsenal and City not far behind. Biggest winners for 538 will be Brighton and Brentford, with Liverpool and Tottenham not far behind.

In terms of predicting the awards, betting odds looks like to have been significantly better for winner and top 4. This is mainly because betting odds knows the league is less balanced than 538 believes, and this has been true basically every year (a systemic problem with 538's methodology). This year 538 will do slightly better on relegation.

Especially with Disney disbanding 538 or whatever they plan to do with it, my guess is they never tweak the model to be better. It's too bad--in some ways 538 seems better than betting odds and if it could incorporate a few more things, like better league adjustments (relative to other leagues) and a better model for variance within a league, it's possible it could rival betting odds due to betting odds having its own small but notable biases. As is, it is still usually noticeably second rate, but still a useful and fun tool. It will be too bad if it never gets improved, or worse, goes away entirely.

72. Textbook Editor Posted: April 30, 2023 at 10:17 PM (#6126267)

Gotta say, Brighton in the Europa League would be a lot of fun, and given how their season went (i.e., losing their coach early), I'd have to think supporters would be thrilled.

Spurs would do well to just avoid Europe completely next season. The Conference is useless. Europa League *does* have its uses, and I like the competition, but given the mess to sort through for whoever is crazy enough to take the job, they probably could use less distraction, especially early in the season.

73. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: May 01, 2023 at 08:10 AM (#6126284)

Leicester-Everton at 3PM today. Forest and Leeds presumably rooting for a draw. If there is a winner the team that loses is in very serious trouble. A draw is bad for both teams. Neither team has a game they are more likely to get points from remaining on their schedule.

74. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 01, 2023 at 09:22 AM (#6126287)

This game today is about as big as it gets for these teams. Everton was predicted to struggle this year, but they've done even worse than expected. Leicester was not supposed to be this much in trouble, and it's partly due to some bad luck.

I do think though that Everton has a better chance of picking up points in its last two games: at Wolves and especially home to Bournemouth, are better than their chance today at Leicester. Leicester is considered to be better than Wolves, or at the very least no worse, and has everything to play for where Wolves will have nothing to play for. Bournemouth is worse than both of them and Everton is at home that day too.

For Leicester, this really might be the game they are most likely to take points from. They have Fulham, but that on e is on the road. Maybe the last game of the season at home agaisnt West Ham, though West Ham is a quite a bit better than Everton.

75. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 01, 2023 at 09:46 AM (#6126293)

On that soft Palace penalty that ended up deciding the game against West Ham, Dale Johnson said the below:

VAR review: This is the dichotomy of VAR protocol in all leagues. You can have the Richarlison penalty claim which isn't awarded and yet Aguerd's challenge on Eze, which has far less contact, isn't overturned. If there's contact by the defender on the attacker, even if slight, then there should be no VAR intervention; a penalty should only be overturned if the defender gets a touch on the ball (and the challenge isn't reckless), or there is no contact, or if the contact is initiated by the attacker.
Even though this penalty is extremely soft, there's little chance the VAR, Jarred Gillett, would intervene to cancel the penalty.

Basically, it was one of the softest penalties given all year, but since it was called on the field and there was some contact, VAR isn't supposed to overturn it. There were probably 10 incidents this week alone that had jsut as much or more claims to be penalties, none of which were given. The difference? None of those were called on the field.

When your standards for intervention are that extreme on contact in the box, you end up with a system that is not very satisfying.

76. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: May 01, 2023 at 10:42 AM (#6126300)

75 - The biggest issue I have with VAR is that it's not a review system, it's an overturn system. IMHO a properly working VAR system should result in an overturn rate of about 50% when the ref goes to the monitor. It's much higher than that because the ref is sent to the monitor it's basically a polite way of saying "you done ###### up."

77. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 01, 2023 at 01:47 PM (#6126318)

Unless Blackburn comes back in the second half, Luton is about to finally eliminate them from payoff contention. Good riddance IMHO, as they are nowhere near good enough to be in the top flight if by some miracle they could win the playoff.

78. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 01, 2023 at 02:23 PM (#6126322)

Blackburn equalized! They retain an outside shot of the playoff. They need to beat Millwall and hope both Sunderland and West Brom lose. That's still a lot to ask.

It's also a bit of a bad break for Millwall. Millwall is in the playoff with a win, but a draw leaves them behind Sunderland and West Brom, if either wins. That means Millwall has to be looking for the win against a probably motivated opponent.

All the makeup Championship games are finally done, so its just the last week's games to be played next Monday.

Arsenal women are falling short at the final CL hurdle again right now, as they are now trailing to Wolfsburg late in the second semifinal leg. I would have popped that one up on a stream if I could have found it, but such things are still harder to find for women's soccer. edit: oops no Arsenal have drawn level again.

79. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 01, 2023 at 02:55 PM (#6126325)

Jave Garcia is on the chopping block. Since Marsch was fired, Leeds has played like a relegation-level team, with only Fulham and Forest being worse on underlying stats. Southampton about the same. Prior to Marsch's firing, Leeds was playing like a lower mid-table team but just couldn't seem to get goals at the right times, and gave them up at the wrong times. They've also gradually performed worse and worse since Marsch was fired, rather than the other way around which is what you might hope for as a Leeds fan.

By 538's reckoning, Leeds were gradually improving this year pretty much through the day Marsch was fired, and have gradually been getting worse ever since. They also came into the season expected to be a bubble team for relegation, but Marsch had them playing quite a bit better than that.

80. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 01, 2023 at 03:19 PM (#6126328)

oops Huddersfield has one more chance to stay up with a midweek game against Sheffield United. Reading needs Huddersfield to lose that game, and then the last game becomes a showdown to avoid relegation. Reading would need the win to stay up and relegate Huddersfield.

81. Mefisto Posted: May 01, 2023 at 03:24 PM (#6126329)

Damn. Everton started so nicely.

82. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 01, 2023 at 03:28 PM (#6126330)

Arsenal seemed to have all the run of play in extras, but Wolfsburg hit a 119th minute winner anyway.

83. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 01, 2023 at 03:46 PM (#6126333)

This Leicester/Everton game is nuts. Both teams playing for the win from the opening whistle.

84. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 01, 2023 at 03:56 PM (#6126335)

oh.... no. That handball was almost always going to be given though. Pickford to the rescue anyway!

85. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: May 01, 2023 at 04:13 PM (#6126336)

Calvert-Lewin with the miss of the season there.

86. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: May 01, 2023 at 04:17 PM (#6126337)

Spurs would do well to just avoid Europe completely next season. The Conference is useless. Europa League *does* have its uses, and I like the competition, but given the mess to sort through for whoever is crazy enough to take the job, they probably could use less distraction, especially early in the season.

I can't get behind this. Spurs need to win something and they should view those competitions as winnable. It has driven me nuts in prior seasons when they crash out of UEL or UECL against what should be much lesser opposition.

I would have popped that one up on a stream if I could have found it, but such things are still harder to find for women's soccer.

I don't know what country you're in, but for me it was free on YouTube on the DAZN channel.

87. Mefisto Posted: May 01, 2023 at 04:21 PM (#6126338)

Iwobi now tied 1-1 and the game at 2-2.

88. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 01, 2023 at 04:22 PM (#6126339)

I found the game eventually. I didn't think of just looking at DAZN on youtube (and did not know there was such a youtube channel).

Everton draw level!

89. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 01, 2023 at 04:27 PM (#6126340)

Already 6 xG combined today (including the penalties). That's a lot! Most I can remember for the first 60 minutes of a game this year, though no doubt there has been more at some point.

90. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: May 01, 2023 at 04:31 PM (#6126341)

I would be enjoying this game a hell of a lot more as a neutral. It's been a thrilling game (not sure it's been particularly well played) but it's brutal on the partisans. Both teams playing with an awareness that today is as good a chance as they have for 3 points.

91. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 01, 2023 at 05:00 PM (#6126346)

The last 30 minutes had fewer chance, but still an exciting game. Maybe all the players got tired out by the early action.

A draw is not great for either team, but not a killer either. Now 5 teams are projected to finish with under 35 points (Leicester probably 34.5 with excellent GD, which is kind of like 35, but not quite). Everton's chances of relegation basically stayed steady at about 59%, with Leicester's cahnces rising a few percentage points.

92. The_Ex Posted: May 01, 2023 at 05:20 PM (#6126347)

One unexpected win by any of the bottom five could make all the difference. The timing of when you play the mid table teams matters, the later the better as they will likely be in off-season mode mentally.

On the last day Leicester are home to West Ham. West Ham would have nothing to play for, assuming they are out of relegation danger. If they are not then it will be a tough game.

Leeds are home to Spurs, will they be playing for a European spot?

Everton are home to Bournemouth who will likely be on the beach.

Forest have to go to Palace, another beach fest.

On the second last weekend West Ham play Leeds, again depends on where West Ham are. Everton go to Wolves who look like they have already checked out.

93. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 01, 2023 at 05:20 PM (#6126349)

Relegation odds:

southampton   97 

leeds         62
everton       56.5
forest        50.5
leicester     32

west ham       1.75
wolves          .25

94. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 01, 2023 at 05:24 PM (#6126350)

The timing of when you play the mid table teams matters, the later the better as they will likely be in off-season mode mentally.

There is always the potential for this, but as someone said upthread it's usually overstated. Certainly the betting odds don't reflect it yet, as none of these bottom teams are expected to amass many points in their last few games.

I also tend to think that teams check out less when they are in front of their home fans, but not sure if the stats back that up.

edit: it's still very unlikely, but within the realm of possibility, that a team could survive relegation with just 33 points this year. Mainly for this reason I'm rooting for Southampton this coming weekend.

95. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 01, 2023 at 05:42 PM (#6126352)

Aside from the Southampton/Forest game this weekend, none of the bottom 5 teams face each other again. Also, of the remaining 18 games (4 per team, and 3 for those two), a full half are against City/Liverpool/Arsenal/Newcastle/Brighton/United. The favorites won't win every single one of those games, but it's certainly conceivable they won't lose any of them either. These hard games are also spread out evenly among the teams--all play exactly two except Forest who has just Liverpool, which is also why having them not win this weekend is so crucial. Odds of a Forest win are pretty high: 45%

96. The_Ex Posted: May 02, 2023 at 07:17 AM (#6126451)

Big Sam is coming in to save Leeds.

97. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: May 02, 2023 at 08:16 AM (#6126456)

A draw is not great for either team, but not a killer either. Now 5 teams are projected to finish with under 35 points (Leicester probably 34.5 with excellent GD, which is kind of like 35, but not quite). Everton's chances of relegation basically stayed steady at about 59%, with Leicester's cahnces rising a few percentage points.

This is consistent with what I was thinking going into the match. I felt like a draw was the best possible result for Forest and Leeds. From an Everton perspective seeing them score twice was somewhat encouraging as that has been a huge problem. But man I just don't see the get out of jail free card right now.

98. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 02, 2023 at 03:05 PM (#6126526)

The bottom 5 teams have been very bad lately: of their past 25 games (5 per team) against other non-bottom 5 opponents, the only points they got were:
Leicester over Wolves
Forest over Brighton
Everton draws with Tottenham and Palace
Southampton draw with Arsenal
(Leeds got nothing)

That is 9 points out of 75, or 0.36 per game, and bloody awful. Of course some of this is selection bias but still.

99. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: May 02, 2023 at 03:21 PM (#6126529)

Man, Chelsea are wretched. They can't even string two passes together, and then the defending...no one tried to cut out that cross to Odegaard at all. It just rolled right by two Chelsea players who made no attempt to stop it.

They're reminding me of Tottenham!

100. jmurph Posted: May 02, 2023 at 03:46 PM (#6126531)

They are almost unbelievably bad. I hope Poch hasn't settled on a salary yet, that number should be rising.

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