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Wednesday, April 26, 2023

OT Soccer Thread - The Run In

The march to the end of the season is upon us.

Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 26, 2023 at 03:10 PM | 505 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: off topic, soccer

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201. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 13, 2023 at 11:56 AM (#6128132)

3 games each left now for Liverpool, United, and Newcastle. With the results today, again it will be about equally difficult for Liverpool to catch either of the others. United has the bad GD but the easier schedule than Newcastle, so are predicted to finish a point higher. Liverpool could still conceivably catch Newcastle on GD if they finish level on points, but it's unlikely now.

Southampton is relegated, and Forest couldn't quite get it done against Chelsea, so had to settle for the draw.

202. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 13, 2023 at 12:20 PM (#6128135)

Notts County draws level finally in the 88th minute, after not having played particularly well for large parts of the game. GK error on free kick to the near post.

203. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 13, 2023 at 12:58 PM (#6128138)

Chesterfield went up early in the extra 30, but Notts County have tied it again. 10 minutes left.

... and penalties now.

204. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: May 13, 2023 at 12:59 PM (#6128139)

Notts County go behind again in extra time, and then just tied it up again!

205. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 13, 2023 at 01:25 PM (#6128143)

Notts County replaced their GK for the shootout, and the replacement Mair saved two, sending Notts County into the league. Should be interesting with both Wrexham and Notts in League Two next year.

206. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 13, 2023 at 02:24 PM (#6128146)

If Leipzig wins tomorrow at home against Werder and Freiburg fails to beat Wolfsburg next Friday, then Leipzig will have clinched or effectively clinched a top 4 spot prior to facing Bayern on Saturday. I'm guessing Dortmund is hoping it doesn't play out that way.

207. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 14, 2023 at 09:23 AM (#6128247)

Halfway through the first half of this Everton/City game, and yet to see a shot by either side.

208. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 14, 2023 at 09:57 AM (#6128249)

West Ham is in the middle of their Europa Conference tie, and with relegation all but avoided you can forgive them for not giving much of an effort at Brentford today.

If Leicester can avoid losing tomorrow though, there is a very real chance that West Ham would go into that home game against Leeds next weekend still not having clinched a spot, and if so you might expect them to take that one a bit more seriously.

209. Mefisto Posted: May 14, 2023 at 11:07 AM (#6128253)

Gundogan's first goal should win goal of the year. Got to feel bad for Everton -- they worked hard, played well (Haaland had just 2 touches in the first 35 minutes), and then Gundogan does that.

210. Mefisto Posted: May 14, 2023 at 11:50 AM (#6128255)

Also, Everton had higher xG for the day. I assume almost all of City's came from Haaland's goal.

211. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 14, 2023 at 12:27 PM (#6128258)

A little less than half from Haaland's goal (about .4 xG). It's hard to have a header be worth more than that though.

Holgate's chance was given 0.56, and it was probably harder in reality.

Everton didn't really need to win today, but giving up 3 goals wasn't ideal, as now GD between them and Leeds is a small but real possibility. The two teams could finish level on 32, 33, 34, or 35 points. If they finish level on 32 or 33 though, and maybe even 34 or 35, they might both finish behind Leicester. And probably but not necessarily behind Forest if they finish level at 34 or 35.

edit: actually depends on the system. Another one gave Haaland's 0.55, just over half of City's total, and Holgate's 0.65 (way too high IMHO).

212. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 14, 2023 at 12:44 PM (#6128259)

I don't know what Arsenal was doing there. The guy crossing the ball can't be offside on his own pass batted back to him by a defender.

edit: if this game finishes with this scoreline, Brighton probably has a better shot at top 4 than Arsenal does at the title.

edit2: by understat, and including the game today, Brighton currently has the second best non-pen xG in the league after City. FBref still has Arsenal slgihtly ahead, with Newcastle just a hair ahead of Brighton. The three are close to level on this stat at the moment.

213. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 14, 2023 at 01:21 PM (#6128266)

Arsenal's title chase is over. Hopefully they play Forest strong anyway next Saturday as it's not technically finished, but in reality it's over. Good run though--made the season interesting.

This result lends the tiniest bit of spice to the Newcastle/Brighton matchup midweek. Brighton will believe they still have a top 4 chance, even if it is small, and should be going into the game with a lot of confidence. In the final tally, the real beneficiary today might have been Liverpool.

214. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 14, 2023 at 01:27 PM (#6128267)

On Arsenal's season--they are a very good team but not really that much better, if better at all, then a few other teams this year, in particular Liverpool, Brighton, and Newcastle. The gap between them and City is big enough that pretty much everything had to go right for them, or everything wrong for City, for Arsenal to win the title. Everything did go right for Arsenal in the first 2/3 of the season, and City played a tad below par. Since then though Arsenal has had their fair share of luck while City has really turned it on. City might win the league by 10 points, and most years with this gap in talent they would probably finish ahead of Arsenal by more than that.

215. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 14, 2023 at 01:30 PM (#6128268)

With this result Brighton is now pretty likely to finish the table 2nd in xPoints, by understat anyway.

Top 4 is still close to impossible, even if they beat Newcastle, but they have pretty much guaranteed themselves Europa.

216. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 14, 2023 at 02:25 PM (#6128277)

Brighton top 4 odds: 2%.
Arsenal title odds: 0.5%.

217. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 15, 2023 at 06:41 PM (#6128329)

top 4 odds:

united       81
newcastle    76

liverpool    41

brighton      2

top 6 odds:

brighton     86

tottenham    10
villa         4

Relegation odds:

leicester    85
leeds        70

forest       26
everton      19

With the results this week, that midweek Brighton game has become huge. Newcastle has to face Leicester next weekend, in a game Leicester almost certainly needs a result in to have any chance of surviving. These will be two huge tests for Newcastle. And don't look now, but even 5 more points might not be enough for Newcastle with Liverpool bearing down on GD as well. If Newcastle only comes out of these games with one or two more GD to their credit (2 draws plus win), Liverpool can catch them with two big wins. Liverpool has the much easier games too, with Villa at home and Southampton on the road. Almost 50/50 to take 6 points from the two games, though the chances of 5 or 6 more GD combined is still very low.

United are by no means safe either. If Liverpool wins both their games, United will definitely need 6 points to survive. Schedule is in their favor though, all against teams with nothing to play for, and two at home.

Leicester is just about screwed. While I'd love to see them take points from Newcastle, the game is way for them and I'd be fairly surprised if Newcastle doesn't handle them pretty easily. If they get no points there. they need to get the win against West Ham and pray Leeds and especially Everton can't get much more from the season. With Everton's schedule that is a lot to ask. Leeds has the much better shot of surviving now, as 4 or even 6 points is definitely nor out of reach.

218. The_Ex Posted: May 15, 2023 at 07:50 PM (#6128338)

So none of the four relegation contenders won this weekend. I had suggested they all could fail to win in weeks 36 and 37. Leeds and Forest each picked up a point.

It seems to be that a win, any win, in the last two games could ensure safety.

If Leeds, Leicester and Southampton do go down it would be very surprising. First, that all three promoted teams survived. And secondly, that the teams being relegated have 11, 9 and 3 years tenure in the EPL. That is a lot of EPL experience to lose.

You never know.

219. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 15, 2023 at 09:07 PM (#6128350)

Definitely it would be very surprising if all three promoted teams stayed up. At least it would have been at the start of the season and even a couple months ago. The last time that happened was more than 20 years ago. Once you get past that though, Leeds and Southampton were the next two most pegged for relegation, so their presence at the bottom of the table is not too big a surprise. Leicester on the other hand was really not supposed to be here. They were picked to finish exactly midtable, with about 50 points.

I think in all likelihood 3 more points doesn't get it done for Leicester. That's why the game next Monday against Newcastle is so critical. They'll have a little better idea once the other teams have a go on Saturday/Sunday before Leicester takes the field.

Just 3 more points for Leeds maybe gets them to 50/50 or slightly better. They can still take points from both their games though.

220. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: May 16, 2023 at 04:19 PM (#6128479)

A deliberate stomp on an opponent's foot is apparently okay now.

221. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 16, 2023 at 06:38 PM (#6128511)

Luton is into next week's final, after coming from behind in the tie. I'm hoping they face Boro.

222. Richard Posted: May 17, 2023 at 09:18 AM (#6128641)

The last time all 3 promoted teams stayed up was in fact 2017-18 (Newcastle, Brighton, Huddersfield). It also happened in 2011-12.

223. Spivey Posted: May 17, 2023 at 09:55 AM (#6128644)

I like City's players and even Pep, but not the owners and sportswashing. I'm also extremely sick of Real Madrid winning all of the CLs despite not being the best team in the world for much of that time. I guess I'm rooting for City.

224. jmurph Posted: May 17, 2023 at 12:13 PM (#6128660)

Either will be overwhelming favorites against Inter, surely, so watch Inter pull it off.

225. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 17, 2023 at 02:30 PM (#6128696)

Sorry must have gotten that promotion/relegation fact way wrong somehow. Not sure what I was looking at.

Yes it is true that Inter will be big underdogs against either City or Real Madrid, but the two are not that similar. They would be much bigger underdogs against City.

226. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: May 17, 2023 at 03:16 PM (#6128714)

Ivan Toney has been suspended until next January for "betting offenses," whatever that means. Huge blow to Brentford -- he scored 20 goals this season, and was set either to be a huge opportunity to cash in or a big part of their attempt to get some European football next year. It'll be interesting to hear what actually happened.

227. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 17, 2023 at 03:41 PM (#6128720)

This first half has been no contest. Some good finishing by Bernardo, but that's not really why they are ahead. At least so far, this may be among the most lopsided halves City has played all year.

228. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 17, 2023 at 03:48 PM (#6128723)

Real Madrid had just the one shot from outside the box, and very rarely looked like they would get another. It was a great shot by Kroos but they can't win playing that way.

229. Baldrick Posted: May 17, 2023 at 03:50 PM (#6128726)

Ivan Toney has been suspended until next January for "betting offenses," whatever that means. Huge blow to Brentford -- he scored 20 goals this season, and was set either to be a huge opportunity to cash in or a big part of their attempt to get some European football next year. It'll be interesting to hear what actually happened.

Isn't that much less time than he was expected to be suspended? I thought it was looking like 18 months or something.

230. Spivey Posted: May 17, 2023 at 04:07 PM (#6128729)

Excited to see how Real Madrid smash and grab this one.

231. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: May 17, 2023 at 04:08 PM (#6128730)

They are remarkable and I am suitably impressed but man do I find City unwatchable. Pass-pass-pass-pass-pass-pass-pass-pass-pass-pass-pass-pass-pass-pass-shoot-win the ball back-pass-pass-pass-pass-pass-etc...is truly impressive but just not at all enjoyable.

232. Spivey Posted: May 17, 2023 at 04:16 PM (#6128732)

Re: 231

I find them way more incisive and watchable than, say, Barcelona/Spain of the early 2010s.

233. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 17, 2023 at 04:21 PM (#6128733)

Generally agree that City can be very boring. They actually have been much less boring in the first half today than they sometimes are, as they were not playing as cautiously as we too often see. For this reason I actually expect the second half to be more boring unless Real Madrid can find another level, as City no longer needs to try to score really.

234. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 17, 2023 at 04:27 PM (#6128736)

Announcers keep saying DeBruyne looks gassed, and I'm inclined to agree with them.

235. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 17, 2023 at 04:40 PM (#6128737)

City will be between 75% and 80% to beat Inter.

236. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: May 17, 2023 at 04:46 PM (#6128738)

Isn't that much less time than he was expected to be suspended? I thought it was looking like 18 months or something.

I hadn't seen that. It's still pretty bad, though. Has it emerged what he was doing? Betting himself? Shaving points?

237. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: May 17, 2023 at 04:49 PM (#6128739)

I find them way more incisive and watchable than, say, Barcelona/Spain of the early 2010s.

I agree wholeheartedly with this. Those teams were the most infuriating I have ever seen.

City doesn't screw up. They don't do the high transition thing that much, which is what makes Liverpool so thrilling to watch when they're on. But De Bruyne and Haaland are as fun to watch as any players on earth right now. I would go so far as to say that this year's team is much more fun than previous iterations of the Pep-City collaboration.

238. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 17, 2023 at 04:56 PM (#6128740)

You know, it's easy to say this City team is "not as good" as some of the others in recent years, based on them having had a little more difficulty in the league. The league is better than it was even a few years ago though, and City is playing as well or better than they ever have in Europe. I'm not at all sure this year's City is any worse than prior years, and they might even be better than ever.

As noted by ELO the premier league as whole has a higher rating than ever, and partly because of that City as well already has its own highest elo rating ever. It will go up after the game today.

239. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 17, 2023 at 04:59 PM (#6128741)

Boro, down 1 with a minute left, had the miss of the year right in front of goal. "Luckily" the offensive player was called offside so it doesn't go in the books. Luton will face Coventry for a spot in the EPL.

240. Baldrick Posted: May 17, 2023 at 05:14 PM (#6128748)

I like Boro decently well, and they 'feel' much more like a first division team to me. But it'll be cool to have one of Luton or Coventry--neither of whom have been anywhere close to the Premier League in the time I've been following.

241. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 17, 2023 at 05:23 PM (#6128751)

Luton has never played in the premier league. Seems they were relegated from the top tier "back" into Division 1 the year the premier league was formed, so just missed out.

242. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 17, 2023 at 06:11 PM (#6128770)

City us now odds on for the treble, and have been since Silva's first goal earlier today.

United is being given a better shot at preventing the treble than Inter.

Inter is at 21%, and United at 27%.

243. Spivey Posted: May 17, 2023 at 08:36 PM (#6128802)

You know, it's easy to say this City team is "not as good" as some of the others in recent years, based on them having had a little more difficulty in the league. The league is better than it was even a few years ago though, and City is playing as well or better than they ever have in Europe. I'm not at all sure this year's City is any worse than prior years, and they might even be better than ever.

Among many other things, I think this City is much more versatile. Having Haaland and then a backup who looks like he may already be close to world class just give them so many options to attack. I think just generally they're less gameplannable than they were in the 100 point season, and less reliant on single individual players (like they were with Fernandinho and Dias in some of their earlier years).

244. The_Ex Posted: May 17, 2023 at 09:09 PM (#6128820)

Toney was alleged to have placed over 200 bets on football games. I believe that any gambling on football is banned. I don't believe it is known if he gambled on games he himself played in.

245. jmurph Posted: May 18, 2023 at 08:01 AM (#6128885)

They are remarkable and I am suitably impressed but man do I find City unwatchable. Pass-pass-pass-pass-pass-pass-pass-pass-pass-pass-pass-pass-pass-pass-shoot-win the ball back-pass-pass-pass-pass-pass-etc...

Of all the (fair) criticisms this is the one I don't really understand. They lead the league in goals scored by 9 over Arsenal, and by 22 over 3rd place Liverpool, despite having played one fewer game than both. With 3 games left they're on 92, might get to 100 again? They also lead in xG. They lead the Champions League in xG (and goals scored, but have obviously played more games than most). The idea they're just dominating the ball and not doing anything with it is pretty inaccurate.

246. Spivey Posted: May 18, 2023 at 08:40 AM (#6128889)

Even with those Spain/Barcelona teams (esp Spain), they could sometimes be guilty of not doing anything with the ball, but they were also routinely facing 10 men behind the ball all game. One of the few memorable teams a team tried to play Spain straight up was Italy in the Euro final, and they got absolutely battered.

There can be a point where one team is just so good that matches lose their natural ebb and flow because the other team can't play normal tactics and the match suffers as a result. But I don't know if this City is that good. They were probably outplayed by Real Madrid in the first leg. The Bayern tie was pretty even for much of it, in terms of control of the game, Bayern just made a few bad mistakes and City didn't.

247. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: May 18, 2023 at 01:26 PM (#6128908)

I agree with 232, Spain/Barca in the early 10s were probably less interesting. But it doesn't make City more enjoyable to watch.

Of all the (fair) criticisms this is the one I don't really understand. They lead the league in goals scored by 9 over Arsenal, and by 22 over 3rd place Liverpool, despite having played one fewer game than both. With 3 games left they're on 92, might get to 100 again? They also lead in xG. They lead the Champions League in xG (and goals scored, but have obviously played more games than most). The idea they're just dominating the ball and not doing anything with it is pretty inaccurate.

It's not that they aren't doing anything with it, it's that nothing is happening. 25 consecutive passes followed by a shot followed by them getting the ball right back is not fun to watch for me. They definitely aren't just holding the ball to hold the ball as that Spain team did a lot in the 2012 Euros. They probe, they prod, they even attack, but I don't find it exciting, it feels inevitable more than anything else. Ultimately a lot of my complaint is "they are too good" which is the goal of course but as a neutral I'd rather two teams going back and forth than one team holding the ball and one team defending for dear life.

248. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: May 18, 2023 at 02:49 PM (#6128916)

hey probe, they prod, they even attack, but I don't find it exciting, it feels inevitable more than anything else.

They're sort of like the velociraptors in Jurassic Park -- they're testing the fences. I agree that it lacks the thrill of watching a wild high-transition team like Liverpool. I also agree that the dispatch with which they disposed of Arsenal, Bayern, and Real Madrid, the only three teams in the world you would expect to give them a challenge, indicates that we may have reached a point where there's a competitive imbalance that isn't in the best interests of the game.

That said, it would be interesting to see what happened if, say, Newcastle somehow came up with some genius coach, because they can spend with City. If there legitimately were two teams of this quality -- which arguably there were, in Liverpool's best seasons under Klopp -- that could be very, very interesting to watch. As a longtime fan of a different big 6 EPL team, I don't know if I like that idea. Even as a longtime fan of Arsenal, I'm not sure I like the idea of the Gunners getting bought by some petro-deathocracy and giving Mik a budget that can rival Pep's. As fun has it occasionally has been to watch ultra-high-level football when City and Liverpool have squared off over the last decade, I think I prefer a league where 90 points is the marker of a great, league-winning side, not 100.

249. jmurph Posted: May 18, 2023 at 03:01 PM (#6128919)

I don't know if I'm arguing with you or agreeing with you Voxter, but there's no reason to think this is some permanent state of play, it's the money but it's also Pep. Mancini won the league once in 4 seasons and Pellegrini once in 3 seasons. Chelsea just spent miles more on transfers than anyone has ever imagined, as far as I can tell. United and Chelsea and Liverpool have, on numerous occasions, outspent them on wages. Pep will leave and they'll surely just be a normal rich team again.

250. jmurph Posted: May 18, 2023 at 03:02 PM (#6128920)

As a longtime fan of a different big 6 EPL team

Also just want to gently point out it was in fact only a Big 4, in fact the exact same Big 4 every year, and let me tell you how exciting that was for everyone else.

251. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 18, 2023 at 03:05 PM (#6128921)

Good no call on that penalty shout by Newcastle. It was 90% a dive.

The interesting thing was it was possible there was the tiniest bit of contact, such that had it been called a penalty on the field maybe VAR decides they can't intervene. If so, another reason to change the VAR protocols.

On another day, the silly tackle attempt by the Brighton defender would have resulted in real contact--it was a bad play by the defender and just luck that the Newcastle player did not make any real contact.

More broadly though--Newcastle had a bit of luck on the actual goal, which was an own goal, but they are all over Brighton as of now, and Brighton is barely hanging on.

252. SoSH U at work Posted: May 18, 2023 at 03:26 PM (#6128922)

More broadly though--Newcastle had a bit of luck on the actual goal, which was an own goal, but they are all over Brighton as of now, and Brighton is barely hanging on.

I think the announcer put it well. Brighton spent that first half absorbing all of the risk with none of the reward.

253. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: May 18, 2023 at 03:56 PM (#6128928)

but there's no reason to think this is some permanent state of play, it's the money but it's also Pep

I totally agree. I was arguing kind of the other side of the point with someone else last night, who called the EPL a "farmer league" or something like that -- I don't think that's forever. I mean, the Yankees won all those WS in the late 90s and it seemed like nothing would ever change, and lo and behold they've only won the one since then. It's the combination of money and Pep. And I'll admit that Pep is a genius, but there's no reason to believe that no one will ever rival him.

Also just want to gently point out it was in fact only a Big 4, in fact the exact same Big 4 every year, and let me tell you how exciting that was for everyone else.

I didn't feel this as acutely as everyone else, as Arsenal were one of that big 4. So maybe there's something to be said for Russian oligarchs and Gulf petro-state ownership pushing the likes of Newcastle back into contention. I still wish there was some kind of middle ground.

This problem is, of course, even more acute in other leagues, and not just the top ones. France and Germany are dominated by one team at the moment. Spain by two -- even when Barca is a total basket case. The Dutch league is a sort of tetrocacy. So is Portugal.

This is one of those things that gives one pause when thinking about the ill-fated Super League. Would separating out the big budget teams from every country actually give other squads a better chance? I'm not smart enough to puzzle that one out.

254. jmurph Posted: May 18, 2023 at 04:08 PM (#6128931)

I will not try to defend the petro states or the oligarchs, or the Thai Prime Minister criminal who owned Manchester City previously (I'm also reasonably sure Inter's billionaire owner is intertwined with the Chinese government, from what I understand?). I do, though, find a lot of the complaints about competitiveness to be, uhhhh, intentionally forgetful about the previous decade plus of the sport (and Bayern's ongoing situation in Germany).

255. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: May 18, 2023 at 04:45 PM (#6128934)

Sheffield Wednesday have gotten 3 of the 4 goals they need to turn it around. They have 6 minutes plus stoppage time to get the 4th and equalize.

256. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 18, 2023 at 05:01 PM (#6128935)

Newcastle has one foot in the CL now. Hard to see them not qualifying at this point.

Wednesday got all the goals it needed! Pretty wild turnaround. On to extras.

Leverkusen outshot Roma 23-1 but could not get a goal, so bow out against Mourinho's negative Roma.

257. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 18, 2023 at 05:23 PM (#6128938)

With that huge win (statistically as well), Newcastle moves into second in xGD, ahead of Arsenal and Brighton. The three teams are close to dead even in xPoints per game.

Brighton put a beatdown on Arsenal, and then turned around and got slaughtered by Newcastle. Pretty surprising.

258. Mefisto Posted: May 18, 2023 at 05:36 PM (#6128939)

As a United fan I guess I should be expected to trash City, but I can't -- they're just too good. TBH, I enjoy watching their games and shaking my head in admiration wishing United could be like that. I don't find them boring at all.

259. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 18, 2023 at 05:59 PM (#6128941)

Wednesday fell behind in extras, but drew level and went through on penalties.

They took the circuitous route, but Fiorentina and West Ham will finally face each other in the Europa Conference final. They were the two favorites in the competition after Villarreal, who bowed out early.

260. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 18, 2023 at 06:35 PM (#6128943)

West Ham has had a strange season. They've been at the bottom of the table all year, but mostly have not played that badly, and were never really in danger of relegation. They were effectively safe from relegation with a month left in the season and now are better than 50/50 to make it to win a trophy and make it to the Europa league. Assuming they do, I would certainly count this as a positive season if I were a West Ham fan. Sure they would like to do better, but most years playing this way they would be solidly midtable. Add a trophy and that's not too shabby.

Another strange one is Sevilla. So god awful for nearly half the season, they've really turned it around since. Both domestically and in Europe they've been decent to good over the last 4 months. They go into the final as almost 50/50 with Roma.

261. The_Ex Posted: May 18, 2023 at 08:17 PM (#6128963)

Brighton put a beatdown on Arsenal, and then turned around and got slaughtered by Newcastle. Pretty surprising.

Brighton rested some players. They have around six injuries as well and De Zerbi worries about tiredness/fatigue. They play Southampton at the weekend and Aston Villa on the last day. Win those and they are in Europe.

I think they are not trying too hard to win against Newcastle and probably Man City mid next week.

262. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: May 19, 2023 at 09:16 AM (#6129047)

Article from the Guardian about the 'on the beach' thing. Unfortunately it was basically just anecdotes of times teams with 'nothing to play for' beat teams who did. I was hoping for some sort of data.

263. jmurph Posted: May 19, 2023 at 12:17 PM (#6129071)

Lots of reports (or perhaps one report that is getting amplified everywhere!) that Marsch is getting the US Men's job after the Gold Cup.

264. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 20, 2023 at 08:12 AM (#6129205)

By clubelo'e elo, City has an elo now ever reached briefly by a few other teams: Barcelona, Bayern, Real Madrid, and Liverpool (briefly, after their great run a few years ago). They are also being given close to 60% to win the league next year, with Arsenal and Liverpool distantly behind, and United and Newcastle even further back. (Then, Chelsea, Tottenham, and Brighton round up the top 8).

265. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 20, 2023 at 09:20 AM (#6129208)

Spurs might get their wish of dropping out of Europe completely. It's not going to be easy--they'll probably have to find a way to lose to Villa next week.

266. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: May 20, 2023 at 09:20 AM (#6129209)

Tottenham decided to switch it up today by playing only in the first half instead of only in the second half.

267. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: May 20, 2023 at 09:49 AM (#6129213)

xG was in Tottenham's favor which doesn't surprise me. The two Mbuemo goals had to be pretty low on that metric. Main difference in this game was that their defenders block shots and ours don't.

268. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: May 20, 2023 at 09:57 AM (#6129215)

Agh, Villa-Liverpool is about to kick off just as I'm supposed to go meet someone for breakfast. I'm tempted to beg off. Hanging out with my friend and her husband and her kid is not really my #1 desire this Saturday.

269. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: May 20, 2023 at 10:04 AM (#6129219)

Liverpool is not nearly as good as they were a few years back, but I think there's still no team that's as fun to watch. Maybe there never has been one that's as fun as the Klopp Liverpool sides.

270. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 20, 2023 at 10:27 AM (#6129221)

Salford City failed to advance from League Two yet again. Next year the old prem stars' team will have to take on FC Hollywood as well as Notts County.

271. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 20, 2023 at 10:51 AM (#6129223)

I did not expect Liverpool to be so anemic at home in a must win game. If these scores hold up, Top 4 is already over.

272. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: May 20, 2023 at 10:52 AM (#6129224)

If that's not a red card, I don't know what is. Gakpo got kicked with the cleats square in the solar plexus. Missed his face by a split second. Bad call.

273. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 20, 2023 at 11:23 AM (#6129227)

Liverpool goal chalked off for an interesting offside call: the offensive player played it back to a guy who was onside (behind the ball), but it was deflected by a defender to another guy who was in an offside position. The deflection doesn't reset the pass, so it had to be offside.

274. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 20, 2023 at 11:54 AM (#6129230)

United didn't play that well, but they didn't really need to against Bournemouth, and they played well enough to win. United's favorable remaining schedule was always one reason why they never were at serious risk of not getting a Top 4 spot over the last couple months.

edit: Liverpool is staying alive at least for now with a late goal. If they get another in the 10 minutes of extra time they will have a small but real chance.

275. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 20, 2023 at 12:03 PM (#6129232)

Everton scored very, very late to draw. Every point could be critical for them, so that's big.

276. Mefisto Posted: May 20, 2023 at 12:07 PM (#6129233)

"Very, very late" understates it. 9 minutes into extra time and I'm amazed (but glad) the whistle didn't blow before that.

277. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 20, 2023 at 12:14 PM (#6129235)

Spurs/Villa next weekend will in all likelihood be for the Europa Conference Spot. After this draw today, Villa just needs a draw against Spurs now to take it. Brighton could fall into 7th giving Villa 6th (and even Spurs with a miracle), but it's not that likely. Brentford can also get the Europa Conference spot if they beat City and Spurs/Villa draw, but that can't be much more than about 4%.

Liverpool is almost completely locked in to Europa. They can still catch Newcastle on points, but even in the very unlikely chance they did they'd have to make up 4 extra goals. Can't be much greater than 1 or 2 in a 1000. Liverpool "just" needs to win and have United lose twice, not much more than about 2% chance of that.

278. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 20, 2023 at 12:20 PM (#6129236)

Wait, Tottenham does not play Villa. Scratch all that. Tottenham goes to Leeds, and Villa hosts Brighton. That means a Spurs draw might be enough depending on what Villa does. It also means that Villa has a not impossible shot at getting Europa. They need to beat Brighton and also have Brighton fail to win either of their other two games. Brighton does face City, but they also face Southampton. A win against Southampton tomorrow and it's wrapped up.

279. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: May 20, 2023 at 01:06 PM (#6129239)

Who is the color guy in this Arsenal game? He's a ####### moron.

280. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 20, 2023 at 01:59 PM (#6129241)

Bayern is only drawing right now and it's getting late in the game against Leipzig.

281. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 20, 2023 at 02:15 PM (#6129243)

And then Bayern got called for two more penalties. Down 1-3 now.

282. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 20, 2023 at 02:29 PM (#6129246)

Maybe one of Arsenal's worst performances of the year, considering opposition quality.

Well done by Forest to stay up! Now there is only one spot left for avoiding relegation. Everton still has the inside track for now, but it is getting tight.

283. The_Ex Posted: May 20, 2023 at 02:59 PM (#6129251)

You have to give credit to Steve Cooper. A newly promoted side, they signed over 30 new players, and he had to make a team out of it. Well done.

That means two of Leicester, Everton and Leeds will be relegated.

284. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 20, 2023 at 03:50 PM (#6129257)

Big stories for any of those teams to be relegated. Worth noting again though that after the three promoted teams, all of Southampton, Leeds, and Everton were considered to be at risk of relegation coming into this year. All those teams were given between 20 and 30% chance of relegation. The only other non-promoted team considered as at risk was Brentford. The only true surprise at being on the chopping block this late is Leicester.

Next year there are a lot of teams that will be considered at risk of relegation, and it should be a relatively safe (comparatively speaking) year for a team like Wolves, and whoever survives out of Everton/Leeds/Leicester. All three promoted teams will be considered suspect, and you should add to that the three promoted teams from last year, none of whom were actually very good this year.

285. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 21, 2023 at 09:49 AM (#6129338)

Brighton is already up 2-0 at the half, so they are a virtual lock for Europa already.

Brighton may not have started their strongest team against Newcastle, rotating their starting front line and only subbing them on late, but the overall player usage wasn't that different than it was against Arsenal. Just more generally, I can't believe Brighton were really shipping the CL, considering the trade-off for losing the chance at the extra cash and prestige to gain a small edge in their Europa race could not possibly have been worth making.

286. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 21, 2023 at 09:58 AM (#6129340)

I can't believe they let McKennie get away with those foul throws.

287. Mefisto Posted: May 21, 2023 at 10:31 AM (#6129344)

Leeds should not have fired Jesse Marsch.

288. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 21, 2023 at 10:32 AM (#6129345)

Leeds must be close to 90% to be relegated now.

289. sardonic Posted: May 21, 2023 at 10:57 AM (#6129348)

Yeah, everything that's happened since Marsch got fired only makes him look better and Leeds look worse. McKennie should get a transfer somewhere better this summer. I hope they let Adams go somewhere good, the wheels totally fell off after he was lost for the season. I wouldn't mind Aaronson sticking around and working on his game in the Championship.

290. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 21, 2023 at 12:29 PM (#6129352)

Leicester still has to play tomorrow, but if they fail to win (likely), then if Everton also fails to win (less likely, but still very possible), a team will survive EPL relegation for only the second time ever. The dream of a team surviving with 33 is still alive too, but remains pretty unlikely (like, 2-3% chance).

291. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: May 21, 2023 at 01:49 PM (#6129358)

Leicester still has to play tomorrow, but if they fail to win (likely), then if Everton also fails to win (less likely, but still very possible), a team will survive EPL relegation for only the second time ever.

That just sounds like a setup to a movie, where every team that gets relegated gets lined up against the wall and mowed down. And we follow a team of plucky underdogs, trying to escape certain death...

292. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 21, 2023 at 01:56 PM (#6129359)

There was supposed to be a "with just 34 points" in there somewhere.

293. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: May 21, 2023 at 02:19 PM (#6129360)

Heh, I guessed it was something like that.

294. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 21, 2023 at 06:45 PM (#6129392)

I thought this Vini Jr racism stuff would level out over time with some of the more nasty people relegated to making their comments below the surface and with all the club and league leadership making mostly the right statements in public even if it sometimes seems their heart might not be totally in it. You know, the way the rest of the countries do their racism.

Boy was I naive.

295. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: May 21, 2023 at 07:06 PM (#6129394)

It's in Dortmund's hands. They just need to win next weekend.

296. jmurph Posted: May 22, 2023 at 08:28 AM (#6129458)

Incredible moves for Bayern this season, what a ride.

297. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 22, 2023 at 02:42 PM (#6129533)

Juve was just docked 10 points. That leaves Juve with 59, 5 behind Milan with two games to go. So they are done for top 4, right, and no Europa back door? Not so fast. Juve has a game in hand and also faces Milan. If Juve wins out they are in the CL.

They play their game in hand against Empoli in a few minutes.

298. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: May 22, 2023 at 02:58 PM (#6129535)

I listened to the Roger Bennett "American Fiasco" podcast over the weekend. It's about the 1998 World Cup and the US "performance" there. It's a good listen. Lots of interesting interviews though he really doesn't delve into the Wynalda/Harkes stuff which seems like an oversight (likely one driven by lawyers) but it's worth it. Lalas comes across as a bit of a dick but also owning that he was a bit of a dick. Also, I really want to hang out with Frankie Hejduk who is just the most positive person in the world apparently.

299. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 22, 2023 at 03:12 PM (#6129537)

Empoli is already up against Juve 2-0. If Juve loses they are virtually guaranteed not to get a top 4 spot, though it would still be possible.

300. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 22, 2023 at 03:37 PM (#6129542)

Maybe we shouldn't be surprised this Newcastle game would not start off too thrilling. Newcastle only needs a home draw, and Leicester is outgunned on the road. They might just try to survive and then take their chances late in the second half.

A draw is not the end of the world for Leicester. They would need to win next week and have Everton not win. It's not a great spot top be in but it's no worse than where they are now.

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