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Wednesday, April 26, 2023
OT Soccer Thread - The Run In
The march to the end of the season is upon us.
Jose is an Absurd Sultan
Posted: April 26, 2023 at 03:10 PM | 505 comment(s)
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It's not hard to believe Leicester hasn't scored. Pretty sure they haven't even had a shot yet.
Relegation odds:
Everton can still survive with a draw or even a loss, but odds are not in their favor. A win and they survive.
Chance of team surviving with just 33 points (which would have to be Everton now): about 5%.
Everton/Leicester/Leeds each have exactly 1 win in their last 10 games.
Europa Conference Slot odds:
Why so low for Spurs? Villa is being given a healthy 43% chance to beat Brighton, and Tottenham only 40% to beat Leeds. The betting odds really seem to be taking into account how much their opponents will care about the game, and maybe to a lesser extent, how much Villa and Tottenham care. 538 has it as 34% for Spurs.
Everton draw or lose, Leicester win, Leeds results don’t matter, Leicester stay up
Everton draw, Leeds win, Leicester lose/draw, Everton stay up (assuming Leeds doesn’t win by 13 goals, I feel pretty confident there)
Everton lose, Leeds win, Leicester lose/draw, Leeds stay up
Everton lose, Leeds and Leicester broth draw or lose, Everton stay up
So in simple terms Everton have their fate in their hands. Any stumble by them and Leicester are safe with a win. That Mina goal looms really large. It basically sunk Leeds. What’s the over/under on combined points by the three teams next weekend? If I said 3 1/2 what would you take?
The mean number of points expected for the three teams is over 5: 2.15 Everton, 1.65 Leicester, 1.30 Leeds. The median can't be much below 5. On paper, this is Everton's easiest matchup in months, with Bournemouth at home. For a while this year it was considered most teams' easiest matchup of the season. Leicester has midtable (in talent) West Ham just a few days before the Europa Conference Final, also at home. Only Leeds is against a team that is expected to be playing at a higher level than they are on the day, and Tottenham's current form and motivation are well open to question. Leeds is also at home.
Sure enough, listening to yesterday's Football Weekly and someone says Leicester defended 'very well'. No they didn't!
That was the second purely Spurs thing I read this morning, this was the first:
But the overall point he makes is that people talk behind the scenes about the environment at a club, and the "very clinical warm-less handling" nature of the environment at Spurs is part of the reason a whole bunch of managers and staff and DoFs don't seem to be in any hurry to sign up for the Spurs show.
They're currently ahead of Chelsea with one game left to play.
The team getting the last spot in the top 4 is seldom the 4th best team. You need a little luck too. 6 teams this year performed much better than all the others, and they were all in the race for top 4 until the final few weeks.
What is up with this Chelsea team. They don't seem any worse than a lot of other teams on talent, but boy can they implode with the best of them. They really need an actual coach at least.
R16 - A third place team
R8 - Someone from the mix of Gambia, England, Uruguay or South Korea. However, this match would see the US having 5 days between games and the opponent only 3. Not sure why the scheduling is like that but it feels like a pretty big advantage.
Semis - Probably one of New Zealand, Nigeria, Brazil or Japan
I'm not expecting to win the tournament but they have a real chance to make a run. I think a strong performance would be a boost for the program on the heels of a decent World Cup.
The US did win, 2-0.
I didn't see how they decide which third place team they will get matched up with, other than a team from group A, C or D. The 3rd place team from C has already been eliminated. The 3rd place team in A is New Zealand. The 3rd place team in D will be decided tomorrow, but right now Nigeria has 6 points, Italy and Brazil 3 points each. So there is a real possibility that the US will play either Italy or Brazil in the round of 16.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_FIFA_U-20_World_Cup#Knockout_stage
Looks like New Zealand for the moment
And now they're denied a second penalty which seemed like it should have been given...
edit: that second one was more a penalty than the first. And in a much more dangerous spot on the field. It's silly how they call slight touches on the feet but not major contact on the body.
... and now 0-2.
At the other end of the table, Bochum was handed a man advantage early, and it looks like it will probably be enough to keep them up.
edit: and now Augsburg down 2 playing down a man. Seems almost certain Bochum will pass them in the table. Only question is whether Stuttgart can get the win too and leave Augsburg to the playoff.
And Union had top 4 in the bag a couple weeks ago, but if the scores end up where they are right now, it will go to Freiburg instead.
Which brings us full circle on the Bundesliga, where 538 has Stuttgart, currently in a slot facing the relegation playoff, as ranked better than both Freiburg and Union, currently battling for the last Top 4 spot.
Man, Haller is going to be having nightmares all summer at this rate.
But as I say that Dortmund are on the board!
Bayern is about to blow it yet again! Stuttgart still has a chance to avoid the playoff, with a goal. And Union finally scored to reclaim the Top 4 spot for now.
Oh no.
So process question. Presumably Bayern are going to be handed a trophy today. Do they get a replica today or is someone flying around in a helicopter waiting to go to the right stadium?
Union held on to Top 4. They might not go far in the CL next year.
Stuttgart will have to face a Bundesliga 2 team to stay up. They'll be heavily favored.
Luton's stadium woes ...
tl;dw ... they'll likely have to play in another stadium.
I think Coventry have been playing in other towns for a few years because their stadium situation was so bad for a while. One of the interesting things about European football & the pyramid system is that you get truly minor league teams wandering into the majors every now and again, and vice versa. And there's danger of a downward spiral like Luton's if things go really wrong.
Should be fun to have Luton in the prem. They'll be a favorite to go down but of course you never know. There are a lot of candidates fore relegation next year, and a little luck will keep Luton up.
I'm not sure how hard they should try TO stay up ... I think using a vast majority of the money on their finances, the stadium and facilities is the most prudent use of funds.
That unexpected result would have meant the US was guaranteed to face Nigeria in the next round. Except that Columbia got a late, late equalizer, putting Japan back into third place with 3 points (though still with virtually no chance of being one of the teams to advance). The US is now virtually guaranteed to face New Zealand after all.
Villa up 2-0, so in all likelihood they will pip Spurs for the Europa Conference League slot now.
Everton still has a good chance to avoid relegation, but it might be below 50/50 at the half. Leeds is at about 0.25%.
Brighton has scored against Villa, so there is still some doubt as to Europa Conference.
edit: actually Everton is still just over 50% to win this game. and a little over 60% to stay up still. Another 15 minutes and it will be 50/50.
West Ham just hit the post, but Leicester has now gone up 2-0. It looks like it will come down to whether Everton can hold their lead.
edit: 4-4 now.
He's a good player but best in the bottom half is kind of a crazy call. Declan Rice, James Maddison, Wilf Zaha...and that's without looking at Chelsea's players, who are obviously way less than the sum of their parts.
They called out Rice in particular as being not as good as his rep. I don't know that I agree, but it's not as though they didn't think about it.
I wouldn't be surprised if they just forgot Chelsea.
Indeed.
The few minutes after that goal was one of the best sports moments I've seen in the last few years. That park was close to collapsing under the noise.
edit: it's actually even a bit worse than that, because two of the other three teams in pots 1 & 2, are Porto and Benfica, both of which are very good right now.
As expected, the USA plays New Zealand on Tuesday. Win that, and they probably face Uruguay in the round of 8, with Brazil lurking in the semis. Brazil just needs to beat Tunisia then the winner of Uzbekistan/Israel. I imagine they will be heavily favored to make the semis, and probably the finals as well.
England has Italy in tasty round of 16 in the bottom half of the bracket.
I was coaching this morning so I had to follow the game on my phone. I was absolutely ####### dying. I was driving home when the “10” came up and I almost went into a ditch. Thank goodness. If I were a neutral I’d be bummed about Everton staying up at Leicester’s expense though. Leicester are fun to watch (hell, so are Leeds) and Everton are just brutal. The biggest frustration over the past decade is while they have slid down the table consistently they have done so by being just awful to watch. I can’t help but think that if they weren’t sporting the #1 keeper of a top ten national team that they’d have been relegated in either of hte last two years.
It was not as dangerous as some other tackles we have seen, but he started the tackle so, so late and just inexcusable to come through the man barely having started your slide tackle.
winner top 4 relegation city 60 93 liverpool 9 54 arsenal 9 54 united 7.5 49 0.1 newcastle 6 44 0.2 chelsea 5 42 0.2 tottenham 1.5 22 0.5 brighton 1 19 1.5 villa 0.2 7 4 west ham 0.2 5 5 brentford 0.15 2 9 palace 0.15 2 10 wolves 0.1 1.5 15 everton 0.1 1.5 20 fulham 0.1 1.5 20 forest 1 26 burnley 0.5 30 bournemouth 0.5 33 shefffield united 0.3 55 luton 0.2 71At the moment, we still have a top 6 (by expectation) but it includes Newcastle rather than Tottenham. Tottenham at a very low ebb and Brihton at a high point has those two hard to choose between next year. Villa and West Ham area also picked to be about equal despite finishing at opposite ends of the table this year.
We aren't expected to have real competition at the top or very bottom of the table.
Also, if you were to use underlying stats to judge against rather than the actual table, 538's predictions would actually have been a little worse relative to betting odds than they already are.
A big part of the problem is the inability to make league-wide adjustments mid season, which, because there are games between leagues, means 538 judges each game (intra or between leagues) as being more meaningful than it really is. That is, under 538's system it seems each game has more of an effect than it really does because 538 hasn't been adjusting league quality behind the scenes, so they have to make the extra adjustment just between each of the two teams in a game. Ironically, for a system that is stat-based as a result it puts too much weight on supposed form. A good run of results will send a team's elo rating probably higher than it should be, but the same happens in 538's system even more dramatically with the results of just a handful of games with high quality underlying stats.
Hey! Congratulations on getting promoted. Your first season back in the top flight in three decades. Pretty cool!
[one day later]
You have a 71% chance of getting relegated.
The last time the tournament was held the US beat Nigeria in the group stage and France in the round of 16. Anything short of a win in the quarters won't top that. Making the quarters this tournament considering their group and KO competition was basically expected, though certainly by no means a guarantee. Even with all that though, reaching the semis would be an achievement for sure. And they would get a third place game at worst.
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