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Wednesday, April 26, 2023

OT Soccer Thread - The Run In

The march to the end of the season is upon us.

Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: April 26, 2023 at 03:10 PM | 456 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off topic, soccer

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   301. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: May 22, 2023 at 04:10 PM (#6129553)
More lazy commentator results-based cliches - they're talking about Dean Smith's plan 'working'. Yes, Leicester haven't conceded yet, but they've been extremely fortunate not to do so. I don't think the plan is working if you have to rely on luck to not be behind.
   302. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 22, 2023 at 04:40 PM (#6129563)
This game started slow, but Newcastle turned it on at some point and it's hard to believe they have not scored.

It's not hard to believe Leicester hasn't scored. Pretty sure they haven't even had a shot yet.
   303. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 22, 2023 at 04:55 PM (#6129566)
Leicester would have had a true smash and grab had that one shot gone in.
   304. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 22, 2023 at 05:00 PM (#6129567)
Top 4 odds:
United       98
Liverpool     2

Relegation odds:
Leeds        95
Leicester    84
Everton      21
   305. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 22, 2023 at 05:01 PM (#6129570)
If United avoids losing midweek, only spot 17 (avoiding relegation) and 7 (europa conference) will be in play.

Everton can still survive with a draw or even a loss, but odds are not in their favor. A win and they survive.

Chance of team surviving with just 33 points (which would have to be Everton now): about 5%.

Everton/Leicester/Leeds each have exactly 1 win in their last 10 games.
   306. Mefisto Posted: May 22, 2023 at 05:39 PM (#6129581)
Still, that last second goal by Mina on Saturday was important to Everton -- they can survive with a draw with a bit of luck.
   307. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: May 22, 2023 at 05:56 PM (#6129583)
Newcastle 2.4 xG without managing to put it in the net. Guarantee 'pundits' will praise Leicester for getting a point from this game even though it was a huge fluke.
   308. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 22, 2023 at 06:27 PM (#6129590)
In case anyone cares and if the odds mean anything here...
Europa Conference Slot odds:
Villa      63
Tottenham  30
Brentford   7

Why so low for Spurs? Villa is being given a healthy 43% chance to beat Brighton, and Tottenham only 40% to beat Leeds. The betting odds really seem to be taking into account how much their opponents will care about the game, and maybe to a lesser extent, how much Villa and Tottenham care. 538 has it as 34% for Spurs.
   309. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: May 22, 2023 at 07:48 PM (#6129608)
The betting odds are probably also taking into account that Spurs are crap.
   310. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: May 22, 2023 at 08:50 PM (#6129613)
Everton win; Leeds/Leicester results don’t matter, Everton stay up

Everton draw or lose, Leicester win, Leeds results don’t matter, Leicester stay up

Everton draw, Leeds win, Leicester lose/draw, Everton stay up (assuming Leeds doesn’t win by 13 goals, I feel pretty confident there)

Everton lose, Leeds win, Leicester lose/draw, Leeds stay up

Everton lose, Leeds and Leicester broth draw or lose, Everton stay up

So in simple terms Everton have their fate in their hands. Any stumble by them and Leicester are safe with a win. That Mina goal looms really large. It basically sunk Leeds. What’s the over/under on combined points by the three teams next weekend? If I said 3 1/2 what would you take?
   311. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 22, 2023 at 10:10 PM (#6129630)
If Everton draws and Leeds wins by 3 goals or more, Leeds has the tie breaker. Still very unlikely.

The mean number of points expected for the three teams is over 5: 2.15 Everton, 1.65 Leicester, 1.30 Leeds. The median can't be much below 5. On paper, this is Everton's easiest matchup in months, with Bournemouth at home. For a while this year it was considered most teams' easiest matchup of the season. Leicester has midtable (in talent) West Ham just a few days before the Europa Conference Final, also at home. Only Leeds is against a team that is expected to be playing at a higher level than they are on the day, and Tottenham's current form and motivation are well open to question. Leeds is also at home.
   312. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: May 23, 2023 at 08:30 AM (#6129699)
Ah, I was looking at Southhampton's goal difference, not Leeds. Oops.
   313. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: May 24, 2023 at 11:08 AM (#6129895)
Newcastle 2.4 xG without managing to put it in the net. Guarantee 'pundits' will praise Leicester for getting a point from this game even though it was a huge fluke.

Sure enough, listening to yesterday's Football Weekly and someone says Leicester defended 'very well'. No they didn't!
   314. jmurph Posted: May 25, 2023 at 07:50 AM (#6130032)
Why is it so difficult for Tottenham to conduct a normal manager search?
   315. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: May 25, 2023 at 08:35 AM (#6130035)
Because poorly run organizations are poorly run.
   316. bestergonomicgamingchair.com Posted: May 25, 2023 at 09:46 AM (#6130040)
Spurs, Spurs, Spurs, Spursy, Spursy, Spurs.
That was the second purely Spurs thing I read this morning, this was the first:
Eric Dier has undergone groin surgery this week. Understand he’s been trying to play with the problem for months, since the World Cup, but it’s now got too bad to play through. He's expected to be fit for the start of pre-season in July.

   317. bestergonomicgamingchair.com Posted: May 25, 2023 at 10:16 AM (#6130044)
A thoughtful Tweet from Ramon Vega, which includes this salient bit.

a Football Club should be there to be social and make you feel warm and welcome to be one of the family and have a unity feeling no one is more important than there other next to him. All this starts at the top of this disconnect and is very clinical warm-less handling.


But the overall point he makes is that people talk behind the scenes about the environment at a club, and the "very clinical warm-less handling" nature of the environment at Spurs is part of the reason a whole bunch of managers and staff and DoFs don't seem to be in any hurry to sign up for the Spurs show.
   318. Baldrick Posted: May 25, 2023 at 04:11 PM (#6130102)
Crystal Palace sacked their manager in late March and brought in the 375 year old Roy Hodgson to try to save them from relegation.

They're currently ahead of Chelsea with one game left to play.
   319. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 25, 2023 at 04:49 PM (#6130108)
United will take top 4 in the end. They are not as good as Liverpool, and maybe not as good as Brighton either. That said, you have to do it on the field as well. Liverpool's underlying stats are barely any better than United's were this year, so in no real sense did they just get unlucky. Their xPoints are going to be very similar in the end. Brighton was the opposite--their underlying stats were definitely better than United's were, but they faltered at all the critical moments.

The team getting the last spot in the top 4 is seldom the 4th best team. You need a little luck too. 6 teams this year performed much better than all the others, and they were all in the race for top 4 until the final few weeks.

What is up with this Chelsea team. They don't seem any worse than a lot of other teams on talent, but boy can they implode with the best of them. They really need an actual coach at least.
   320. The Marksist Posted: May 26, 2023 at 09:10 AM (#6130189)
Chelsea is weeeeeeeeeird. They have a super lopsided squad, a bunch of injuries, and manager whiplash. Plus, they miss all the chances. They just look totally snakebit every time I watch them.
   321. Mefisto Posted: May 26, 2023 at 09:19 AM (#6130190)
Chelsea need a manager who can organize the talent and then prune the squad. There may be some good deals for mid-table teams if they do that.
   322. jmurph Posted: May 26, 2023 at 09:48 AM (#6130200)
They look to have dramatically overpaid for a large number of guys. Cucurella, for example, looked terrible every time I watched them, and he cost 60+ million pounds. Maybe that's fixed under Poch? But there's a long line of guys that need to be fixed.
   323. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: May 26, 2023 at 09:52 AM (#6130201)
It's sliding under the radar but the U-20 World Cup is into it's final group stage match day. The US have a real chance of making serious noise here. A draw or win today against Slovakia would win the group and put them in a position where they would play;

R16 - A third place team
R8 - Someone from the mix of Gambia, England, Uruguay or South Korea. However, this match would see the US having 5 days between games and the opponent only 3. Not sure why the scheduling is like that but it feels like a pretty big advantage.
Semis - Probably one of New Zealand, Nigeria, Brazil or Japan

I'm not expecting to win the tournament but they have a real chance to make a run. I think a strong performance would be a boost for the program on the heels of a decent World Cup.
   324. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: May 26, 2023 at 09:53 AM (#6130203)
The thing I see with Chelsea is a team that is very good at collecting pieces but not so good at identifying which piece goes where or establishing a "team." I think they acquire players like they are a fantasy or computer team rather than one that can interact on the pitch together.
   325. Pirate Joe Posted: May 26, 2023 at 07:11 PM (#6130278)
R16 - A third place team


The US did win, 2-0.

I didn't see how they decide which third place team they will get matched up with, other than a team from group A, C or D. The 3rd place team from C has already been eliminated. The 3rd place team in A is New Zealand. The 3rd place team in D will be decided tomorrow, but right now Nigeria has 6 points, Italy and Brazil 3 points each. So there is a real possibility that the US will play either Italy or Brazil in the round of 16.

   326. Esmailyn Gonzalez Sr. Posted: May 26, 2023 at 08:39 PM (#6130291)
Wikipedia has the formula for the matchups:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_FIFA_U-20_World_Cup#Knockout_stage
Looks like New Zealand for the moment
   327. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 26, 2023 at 09:34 PM (#6130298)
If A and D both get 3rd place teams through, and C does not, then the USA will face New Zealand. That seems quite likely at the moment. There's a good chance we'll pretty much know by tomorrow.
   328. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: May 27, 2023 at 08:41 AM (#6130325)
Fun game this morning in the ECL final. Two old teams trying to complete miracle runs from way down the pyramid. I'm looking forward to it.
   329. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: May 27, 2023 at 09:51 AM (#6130330)
Oh no, Dortmund are choking. Gave up an early goal and just missed a penalty.

And now they're denied a second penalty which seemed like it should have been given...
   330. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 27, 2023 at 09:51 AM (#6130331)
Dortmund gave up an early goal from a corner, get a gift of a penalty on then very corner of the box but its saved. Down 0-1.

edit: that second one was more a penalty than the first. And in a much more dangerous spot on the field. It's silly how they call slight touches on the feet but not major contact on the body.


... and now 0-2.
   331. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: May 27, 2023 at 09:55 AM (#6130332)
And two for Mainz. This is bad even by Dortmund standards.
   332. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: May 27, 2023 at 09:55 AM (#6130334)
Dortmund taking the drama out of the final day but not the way that was expected.
   333. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: May 27, 2023 at 09:59 AM (#6130335)
This might be unfair, but I think the Dortmund keeper needs to save at least one of those. They weren't easy saves but I think a good keeper stops one or both.
   334. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: May 27, 2023 at 10:17 AM (#6130339)
Two somewhat similar chances; Sane for Bayern, Brandt for Dortmund. Sane slots it past the keeper at the far post, Brandt puts it far too close to the keeper for a relatively easy save. Sums up the first 45 pretty well.
   335. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: May 27, 2023 at 10:18 AM (#6130340)
First bit of good news for Dortmund today as Sane's goal is ruled out for a handball in the build up.
   336. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 27, 2023 at 10:18 AM (#6130341)
Dortmund doesn't necessarily need to win the game to win the title. Bayern could still screw it up. That's actually quite a bit more likely with these halftime score lines.

At the other end of the table, Bochum was handed a man advantage early, and it looks like it will probably be enough to keep them up.
edit: and now Augsburg down 2 playing down a man. Seems almost certain Bochum will pass them in the table. Only question is whether Stuttgart can get the win too and leave Augsburg to the playoff.

And Union had top 4 in the bag a couple weeks ago, but if the scores end up where they are right now, it will go to Freiburg instead.

Which brings us full circle on the Bundesliga, where 538 has Stuttgart, currently in a slot facing the relegation playoff, as ranked better than both Freiburg and Union, currently battling for the last Top 4 spot.
   337. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: May 27, 2023 at 10:36 AM (#6130343)
Stuttgart have the chance they'd want. Augsburg are almost certainly losing so if Stuttgart can get the win against a beatable Hoffenheim side that have nothing to play for they would stay up.
   338. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: May 27, 2023 at 10:39 AM (#6130344)
If Bellingham has anything in the tank at all he should be on right now for Dortmund. With five subs you can still hook him later in the half if you need to but get every possible second you can out of him.
   339. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 27, 2023 at 10:44 AM (#6130345)
Announcers say a draw is worth something to Dortmund. What could that possibly be.
   340. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 27, 2023 at 10:47 AM (#6130346)
One more goal by Schalke and Stuttgart is in the straight relegation spot. It's close to all or nothing right now for them.
   341. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: May 27, 2023 at 10:49 AM (#6130348)
Dortmund look more likely to concede a third than they do to score right now.
   342. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: May 27, 2023 at 10:50 AM (#6130349)
Yeah I can't see any scenario where Dortmund getting a draw makes any difference.

Man, Haller is going to be having nightmares all summer at this rate.
   343. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: May 27, 2023 at 11:00 AM (#6130350)
25 minutes give or take, if Dortmund get 3 it will be a shocker. At this point I'd have the keeper up front.

But as I say that Dortmund are on the board!
   344. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: May 27, 2023 at 11:00 AM (#6130351)
Well, there's one. Reyna has made a huge difference since coming on.
   345. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 27, 2023 at 11:09 AM (#6130353)
Stuttgart is now losing... little chance of them avoiding a playoff, and they might go straight down still.
   346. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 27, 2023 at 11:11 AM (#6130354)
Penalty against Bayern. If that was a handball it had to have been in the box.

Bayern is about to blow it yet again! Stuttgart still has a chance to avoid the playoff, with a goal. And Union finally scored to reclaim the Top 4 spot for now.
   347. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: May 27, 2023 at 11:12 AM (#6130355)
KOLN EQUALIZE WITH A PENALTY! Bayern need to score in the final 10+ minutes to win the title.
   348. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: May 27, 2023 at 11:19 AM (#6130357)
Holy #### what a save.

Oh no.
   349. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 27, 2023 at 11:22 AM (#6130358)
Dortmund has 4 xG by infogol, but just the 1 goal. Seems likely not to be enough now.
   350. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: May 27, 2023 at 11:25 AM (#6130359)
Haller finally put one in the net but offside.
   351. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: May 27, 2023 at 11:26 AM (#6130360)
That 4 xG is pretty flattering in my opinion. They generated very little in the first half aside from the penalty (which was a gift) and only started generating real chances down 2-0.

So process question. Presumably Bayern are going to be handed a trophy today. Do they get a replica today or is someone flying around in a helicopter waiting to go to the right stadium?
   352. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 27, 2023 at 11:31 AM (#6130361)
Dortmund got a second, but it was right at the death. Bayern win it yet again.
Union held on to Top 4. They might not go far in the CL next year.
Stuttgart will have to face a Bundesliga 2 team to stay up. They'll be heavily favored.
   353. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: May 27, 2023 at 01:36 PM (#6130375)
Coventry - Luton Town appears headed to extra time in "the most expensive match on earth," as I've heard it called. Winner gets promoted, gets something like 95M pounds in TV money, parachute payments if they go back down . . . and maybe has to renovate their stadium, since both of them have been struggling with that for years?
   354. bestergonomicgamingchair.com Posted: May 27, 2023 at 02:04 PM (#6130382)
and maybe has to renovate their stadium, since both of them have been struggling with that for years?


Luton's stadium woes ...
tl;dw ... they'll likely have to play in another stadium.
   355. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 27, 2023 at 02:46 PM (#6130385)
These have been some good penalties.
   356. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: May 27, 2023 at 02:49 PM (#6130386)
Luton's stadium woes ...


I think Coventry have been playing in other towns for a few years because their stadium situation was so bad for a while. One of the interesting things about European football & the pyramid system is that you get truly minor league teams wandering into the majors every now and again, and vice versa. And there's danger of a downward spiral like Luton's if things go really wrong.
   357. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 27, 2023 at 02:51 PM (#6130387)
One bad penalty out of 12 from both teams, and that was all it took.

Should be fun to have Luton in the prem. They'll be a favorite to go down but of course you never know. There are a lot of candidates fore relegation next year, and a little luck will keep Luton up.
   358. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: May 27, 2023 at 03:07 PM (#6130388)
I heard a stat this morning that this will be the first time ?ever? / ?in a long time? that none of the promoted teams in the EPL got relegated back down. So stranger things have happened.
   359. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: May 27, 2023 at 03:10 PM (#6130389)
Anyway, I'm looking forward to Everton - Bournemouth tomorrow.
   360. bestergonomicgamingchair.com Posted: May 27, 2023 at 04:28 PM (#6130398)
Should be fun to have Luton in the prem. They'll be a favorite to go down but of course you never know. There are a lot of candidates fore relegation next year, and a little luck will keep Luton up.


I'm not sure how hard they should try TO stay up ... I think using a vast majority of the money on their finances, the stadium and facilities is the most prudent use of funds.
   361. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 27, 2023 at 07:05 PM (#6130406)
Japan crashed out of the tournament despite having the lead and even the man advantage against Israel for the last 30 minutes, giving up 2 goals in the process to lose. Oops.

That unexpected result would have meant the US was guaranteed to face Nigeria in the next round. Except that Columbia got a late, late equalizer, putting Japan back into third place with 3 points (though still with virtually no chance of being one of the teams to advance). The US is now virtually guaranteed to face New Zealand after all.
   362. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 27, 2023 at 07:36 PM (#6130408)
The Israel player came on in the 61st minute, with his team down a goal. Got a yellow in the 65th, and a second yellow in the 68th. Israel than proceeded to score two goals and win the game. That is something you don't see every day.
   363. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 28, 2023 at 11:33 AM (#6130483)
Carlisle United has been promoted to League One after beating Stockport. So far, all three playoff promotions in the league have gone to penalties. One more tomorrow.
   364. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 28, 2023 at 11:35 AM (#6130484)
Kane has already scored for Spurs. Leeds hanging by the slimmest of threads now. Spurs for the moment are in the Europa Conference League.
   365. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 28, 2023 at 11:52 AM (#6130485)
Villa scored not long after, so for now that Europa Conference League spot is theirs.
   366. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 28, 2023 at 12:07 PM (#6130487)
Leicester have scored and Everton have not, so right now Leicester would be safe and Everton relegated. Everton has definitely had the best of the game so far, but have not had any great chances yet.

Villa up 2-0, so in all likelihood they will pip Spurs for the Europa Conference League slot now.
   367. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: May 28, 2023 at 12:21 PM (#6130489)
The atmosphere at Goodison Park is crazy right now. If Everton scores, it'll explode, but I can imagine that if they go down it could get really ugly, too.
   368. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 28, 2023 at 12:23 PM (#6130490)
Everton will most likely have to score to stay up. They will need to play the second half with more urgency. West Ham can't seem to keep, or even get, the ball against Leicester, and it sure doesn't look like they will be doing Everton any favors against Leicester.

Everton still has a good chance to avoid relegation, but it might be below 50/50 at the half. Leeds is at about 0.25%.

Brighton has scored against Villa, so there is still some doubt as to Europa Conference.

edit: actually Everton is still just over 50% to win this game. and a little over 60% to stay up still. Another 15 minutes and it will be 50/50.
   369. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: May 28, 2023 at 12:39 PM (#6130492)
Leeds 0 - 2 Spurs. This has been a truly embarrassing season for Leeds.
   370. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: May 28, 2023 at 12:49 PM (#6130495)
that was a hell of a goal
   371. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 28, 2023 at 12:52 PM (#6130496)
Goal Everton. Just a beautiful volley by Doucouré from outside the box, kicked about as hard as you can kick a ball. Goodison is loud.

West Ham just hit the post, but Leicester has now gone up 2-0. It looks like it will come down to whether Everton can hold their lead.
   372. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 28, 2023 at 12:55 PM (#6130497)
I know it's a meaningless game, but Liverpool went up 0-2 and then gave up four to Southampton. 4-2 now.

edit: 4-4 now.
   373. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: May 28, 2023 at 01:02 PM (#6130498)
One thing that struck me while they were showing the crazy crowd after the goal is just how overwhelmingly white the Everton fans are. Much more so than a crowd at Old Trafford or the Emirates would be. I looked it up and Liverpool is much whiter than Manchester or London. I wonder why that is.
   374. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: May 28, 2023 at 01:03 PM (#6130499)
What happened to Pickford?
   375. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 28, 2023 at 01:11 PM (#6130500)
West Ham did finally score against Leicester, so that one is not over yet either.
   376. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: May 28, 2023 at 01:12 PM (#6130501)
I was listening to the Athletic Football Podcast yesterday and their consensus was that Philip Billings was the best player on any team in the bottom half of the table. I'd never really noticed him before, but you can see what they were talking about if you watch him.
   377. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 28, 2023 at 01:27 PM (#6130505)
Villa held on to take the Europa Conference spot. Leicester held on to beat West Ham. Pickford finally had to make a save several minutes into stoppage time.
   378. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: May 28, 2023 at 01:37 PM (#6130506)
I was listening to the Athletic Football Podcast yesterday and their consensus was that Philip Billings was the best player on any team in the bottom half of the table. I'd never really noticed him before, but you can see what they were talking about if you watch him.

He's a good player but best in the bottom half is kind of a crazy call. Declan Rice, James Maddison, Wilf Zaha...and that's without looking at Chelsea's players, who are obviously way less than the sum of their parts.
   379. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: May 28, 2023 at 02:08 PM (#6130507)
Declan Rice


They called out Rice in particular as being not as good as his rep. I don't know that I agree, but it's not as though they didn't think about it.

I wouldn't be surprised if they just forgot Chelsea.
   380. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: May 28, 2023 at 03:27 PM (#6130511)
Arsenal's injury situation has become almost comical. First Tommy, then Saliba, then Martinelli, now Saka. I feel like there are others I'm forgetting? Anyway, thank Christ the season is over, or this could turn into another debacle like last year.
   381. Mefisto Posted: May 28, 2023 at 04:19 PM (#6130517)
That was a very long 10 minutes for those of us rooting for Everton.
   382. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: May 28, 2023 at 04:27 PM (#6130519)
That was a very long 10 minutes for those of us rooting for Everton.


Indeed.

The few minutes after that goal was one of the best sports moments I've seen in the last few years. That park was close to collapsing under the noise.
   383. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 28, 2023 at 07:13 PM (#6130531)
Juventus getting penalized out of the CL now means Arsenal is assured a Pot 2 place in next year's CL. That could be a big deal. Pots 1 & 2 are far superior to 3 & 4. Most of the teams from the top 4 leagues plus PSG are in pot 1 or 2 (13 out of the 16 teams from those pots). Newcastle has no recent history in Europe, so will be in pot 3 or pot 4, along with 4 other teams from the top 4 leagues plus PSG (Milan, Lazio, Real Sociedad, Union).

edit: it's actually even a bit worse than that, because two of the other three teams in pots 1 & 2, are Porto and Benfica, both of which are very good right now.
   384. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 28, 2023 at 07:35 PM (#6130532)
In the U20s, France got an early red in the game against Honduras, and probably largely because of that could not make up the GD to advance. They fall one goal short, allowing Tunisia to sneak through despite their own loss to Uruguay.

As expected, the USA plays New Zealand on Tuesday. Win that, and they probably face Uruguay in the round of 8, with Brazil lurking in the semis. Brazil just needs to beat Tunisia then the winner of Uzbekistan/Israel. I imagine they will be heavily favored to make the semis, and probably the finals as well.

England has Italy in tasty round of 16 in the bottom half of the bracket.
   385. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: May 28, 2023 at 08:27 PM (#6130534)
That was a very long 10 minutes for those of us rooting for Everton.


I was coaching this morning so I had to follow the game on my phone. I was absolutely ####### dying. I was driving home when the “10” came up and I almost went into a ditch. Thank goodness. If I were a neutral I’d be bummed about Everton staying up at Leicester’s expense though. Leicester are fun to watch (hell, so are Leeds) and Everton are just brutal. The biggest frustration over the past decade is while they have slid down the table consistently they have done so by being just awful to watch. I can’t help but think that if they weren’t sporting the #1 keeper of a top ten national team that they’d have been relegated in either of hte last two years.
   386. Mefisto Posted: May 28, 2023 at 08:41 PM (#6130536)
Yeah, Everton have been painful and neither Leeds nor Leicester should go down. In a just world, the relegated teams would be Bournemouth, Forest, and Southampton. I just hope Leeds and Leicester come back quickly and that Everton get their act together.
   387. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: May 28, 2023 at 08:45 PM (#6130537)
I just watched the goal and the last few minutes. After the goal the first fan who ran on the pitch to hug Doucare was wearing a sweatshirt that said “It’s not my fault, I was left unsupervised” which seemed a bit on the nose. Mefisto (I think) was right, the noise after the goal was amazing.
   388. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: May 29, 2023 at 11:13 AM (#6130551)
Wow, after a pretty tame first 45 the second half is off and running. Barnsley have a big penalty shot rejected (incorrectly in my view) then 3 minutes later Barnsley have a man sent off. I can see why the call was made the way it was but I don't think it should have been red. Barnsley now have 40 if not 70 minutes to play down a man.
   389. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 29, 2023 at 11:15 AM (#6130552)
Really bad tackle by the Barnsley player gets him sent off early in the second half. That tackle is a red more than half the time, and no way in hell VAR would overturn it.

It was not as dangerous as some other tackles we have seen, but he started the tackle so, so late and just inexcusable to come through the man barely having started your slide tackle.
   390. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: May 29, 2023 at 11:30 AM (#6130555)
Yeah I don't think it was a bad call. It's really the kind of call where proper use of VAR would be perfect. Not "you missed it" but "hey take another look and give yourself a chance to consider it." It might still be red for the reasons Bea describes.
   391. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: May 29, 2023 at 12:11 PM (#6130560)
It’s taken 40 minutes but Wednesday seem to finally be taking advantage of the extra man.
   392. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: May 29, 2023 at 12:39 PM (#6130562)
Oh my, brutal for Barnsley as Windass emulates the old man and gets the winner for Sheffield Wednesday.
   393. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 29, 2023 at 12:44 PM (#6130563)
Barnsley played so well for 45 minutes down a man but got overrun in the extras. It hurts to go out like this, having made a really good showing. Barnsley might be the favorite to go up next year, but it is always a crapshoot.
   394. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 29, 2023 at 07:20 PM (#6130633)
Already, odds out for next season.
           winner   top 4      relegation

city         60      93              

liverpool     9      54
arsenal       9      54
united        7.5    49            0.1
newcastle     6      44            0.2
chelsea       5      42            0.2

tottenham     1.5    22            0.5
brighton      1      19            1.5

villa         0.2     7            4
west ham      0.2     5            5

brentford     0.15    2            9
palace        0.15    2           10
wolves        0.1     1.5         15
everton       0.1     1.5         20
fulham        0.1     1.5         20

forest                1           26
burnley               0.5         30
bournemouth           0.5         33

shefffield united     0.3         55
luton                 0.2         71

At the moment, we still have a top 6 (by expectation) but it includes Newcastle rather than Tottenham. Tottenham at a very low ebb and Brihton at a high point has those two hard to choose between next year. Villa and West Ham area also picked to be about equal despite finishing at opposite ends of the table this year.

We aren't expected to have real competition at the top or very bottom of the table.
   395. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 29, 2023 at 07:38 PM (#6130634)
Wrexham and Notts County are two of the three teams most considered most likely to be promoted from League Two next year. The other being Stockport.
   396. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 29, 2023 at 08:25 PM (#6130637)
Betting odds did slightly better on points totals than 538 this last year, but it was close. Big winners for betting odds: especially United and Newcastle, and to a lesser extent Arsenal. Biggest winners for 538 were Liverpool, Tottenham, Brighton, and Brentford. Betting odds did much better on winner and top 4, but was very slightly worse on relegation. Both betting odds and 538 missed big on relegation, but betting odds put a lot of weight on Bournemouth. The reason for betting odds winning most of these is systemic to 538. 538 is very good at identifying the Brightons and Brentfords based on underlying stats, but pretty terrible at balancing the league overall. Every single year they vastly over-estimate the likelihood of true outsiders getting top 4 spots. (Also as noted, they are terrible at judging the relative quality of leagues, especially leagues of pretty dissimilar quality. Even a basic elo system that makes league adjustments for every game between leagues, like clubelo, does a better job of this.)

Also, if you were to use underlying stats to judge against rather than the actual table, 538's predictions would actually have been a little worse relative to betting odds than they already are.

A big part of the problem is the inability to make league-wide adjustments mid season, which, because there are games between leagues, means 538 judges each game (intra or between leagues) as being more meaningful than it really is. That is, under 538's system it seems each game has more of an effect than it really does because 538 hasn't been adjusting league quality behind the scenes, so they have to make the extra adjustment just between each of the two teams in a game. Ironically, for a system that is stat-based as a result it puts too much weight on supposed form. A good run of results will send a team's elo rating probably higher than it should be, but the same happens in 538's system even more dramatically with the results of just a handful of games with high quality underlying stats.
   397. Baldrick Posted: May 30, 2023 at 03:57 AM (#6130709)
luton 0.2 71

Hey! Congratulations on getting promoted. Your first season back in the top flight in three decades. Pretty cool!

[one day later]

You have a 71% chance of getting relegated.
   398. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 30, 2023 at 03:12 PM (#6130793)
The US U20s are up 3-0 on New Zealand and seemingly headed for the quarters. They'll need to win at least one more game to make this notable though, since they've also made the quarters each of the last three tournaments. Only once did they progress farther, in 1989 when there were fewer KO rounds they won in the first round quarters against Iraq. Next up is the winner of Uruguay/Gambia, who play tomorrow.

The last time the tournament was held the US beat Nigeria in the group stage and France in the round of 16. Anything short of a win in the quarters won't top that. Making the quarters this tournament considering their group and KO competition was basically expected, though certainly by no means a guarantee. Even with all that though, reaching the semis would be an achievement for sure. And they would get a third place game at worst.
   399. bestergonomicgamingchair.com Posted: May 30, 2023 at 09:33 PM (#6130844)
   400. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: May 30, 2023 at 11:09 PM (#6130865)
It was ruled an Act of Dog.
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