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Monday, August 09, 2021

OT Soccer Thread - Transfer! Kits! Other Stuff!

Bundesliga, Premier League and La Liga start August 13.

Serie A August 20.

Ligue Une started this weekend.  I haven’t paid attention to much but I assume defending champions Lille are expected to repeat.

Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference last qualifying rounds are the week of August 16 with draws for the group stages on the 27th.

Women’s Champions League qualifying rounds are the week of the 16th as well.

English Women’s Super League starts September 3rd.

Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: August 09, 2021 at 09:01 AM | 274 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off topic, soccer

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   201. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: September 09, 2021 at 12:27 AM (#6038872)
So Davies is the best player from a CONCACAF nation. Is Reyna the next best? Looking at the Mexican team and recent call ups, no name really stands out.

I think it’s Pulisic.

Feeling a lot better now. Not a complete performance but they are getting five points from these first three games. I don’t think that’s a bad return especially given that we were missing Pulisic and then McKennie.
   202. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 09, 2021 at 12:34 AM (#6038875)
Yeah 5 points is ok. Definitely room for improvement in play, but nothing to worry about in terms of points, especially with all the draws in the region.

I think Canada is the clear third best team of the octagonal. Everyone else seems to have pretty big flaws. I'm not even sure who the 4th best team is, with Costa Rica seemingly in a down cycle. Would be kind of a shame if any of the top three missed out on the World Cup this year.
   203. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: September 11, 2021 at 09:09 AM (#6039170)
Yeah the international break really screwed Spurs over for this one. A midfield containing Winks, Hojbjerg, and Skipp. The 4th-choice CB gets a red card and the 6th-choice CB concedes a penalty.

(After the 5th-choice CB had to come on after an injury.)
   204. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 11, 2021 at 09:24 AM (#6039173)
All true, but Spurs still should be able to take more than 1 shot in the first hour at full strength against a bad Palace team.
   205. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: September 11, 2021 at 09:26 AM (#6039174)
Well, they weren't anywhere near full strength, hence my comment about the starting midfield. Son and Bergwijn both out because of injuries picked up in internationals.
   206. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 11, 2021 at 09:47 AM (#6039177)
I just meant 11v11. Palace is a bad team, and Spurs' backups should be enough to play them even at least.
   207. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 11, 2021 at 10:01 AM (#6039179)
That was probably the second worst xG beatdown this season, after City's shellacking of Arsenal, where Xhaka was sent off after 34 minutes.
   208. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 12, 2021 at 11:44 AM (#6039313)
Preseason odds had Leeds as the best of the tightly bunched midtable teams, 8th after the top 6 plus Leicester. The midtable EPL teams all look quite decent right now, and Leeds might actually be the weakest of the bunch, behind West Ham, Everton, Brighton, Wolves, and maybe even Villa. It's still very early, but they have not played like a top half team this year yet.
   209. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 12, 2021 at 01:19 PM (#6039316)
Liverpool's Elliott might have a broken leg after a tackle from behind. Straight red for Struijk.
   210. The Marksist Posted: September 13, 2021 at 12:33 PM (#6039436)
Apparently it's a dislocated ankle for Elliott, which is plenty bad enough. Hopefully surgery goes well and he can recover faster than expected. He's been great so far this season, and it sucks that he got hurt.

I think it's mostly boring and pointless to argue about refereeing, but it's hard not to feel like the Premier League is an accessory to this injury. Leaping/diving tackles from behind are always bad, even when they come off cleanly. It's one thing to slide in beside a runner to try and hook the ball off their foot, but it's a fine line between that and just going through a guy's legs. And for all the talk of "letting the game flow," what I've seen so far this year is just that a bunch of obvious fouls aren't getting called and it's not making the games any more fun to watch. Plus, nothing kills the excitement of a game like a serious injury. I'd rather refs protected players, called tighter games, and let the flow come from fewer garbage tackles and not just fewer whistles.

   211. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 13, 2021 at 02:10 PM (#6039458)
   212. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 13, 2021 at 02:18 PM (#6039461)
Revised CL betting odds to advance (538 in parens)
Group A
City         82     (88)
PSG          81     (57)   
Leipzig      32     (50)
Brugge        5      (5)

Group B
Liverpool    75     (78)
Atleti       62     (58)
Milan        39     (36)
Porto        24     (28)

Group C      
Dortmund     78     (72)
Ajax         57     (78)
Sporting     44     (40)
Besiktas     21     (10)

Group D
RealMadrid   90     (89)
Inter        75     (82)
Shakhtar     31     (27)
Sheriff       4      (2)

Group E     
Bayern       86     (85)
Barcelona    76     (74)
Benfica      30     (38)
Kyiv          8      (3)

Group F
United       80     (79)
Atalanta     65     (57)
Villarreal   44     (47)
YoungBoys    11     (17)

Group G      
Sevilla      66     (66)
Wolfsburg    53     (55)
Lille        44     (26)
Salzburg     37     (54)

Group H      
Chelsea      89     (91)
Juventus     76     (69)
Zenit        26     (36)
Malmo         9      (3)

Revised betting odds to lift trophy (538 in parens)
PSG          19      (3)
City         17     (21) 
Chelsea      10.5    (8)
Bayern       10.5   (14)
Liverpool     8.5   (10)
United        7      (5)
RealMadrid    5.5    (5)
Barcelona     3.75   (6)
Atleti        3.75   (3)
Juve          2.75   (1)
Dortmund      2.5    (4)
Sevilla       1.5    (2)
Inter         1.5    (3)
Atalanta      1.25   (1)
Milan         1      (<1)
Ajax          0.75   (5)
Leipzig       0.5    (3)
Other 15      3      (5)

Interestingly, City is a very slight favorite in the group but PSG has the edge in the KOs.
538 doesn't know about Messi and always hated PSG anyway (per ELO, which dislikes them generally). To a lesser extent, 538 also loves Ajax and Leipzig, and hates Juve.
   213. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 13, 2021 at 03:05 PM (#6039476)
Burnley with a foul from behind on Richarlison. A tiny bit reminiscent of the Elliott foul. The play was an easy yellow all day, but since it was still in the first minute or so, no card. I can see keeping it in the pocket early for marginal calls, but for plays like that it's criminal.
   214. Mefisto Posted: September 13, 2021 at 03:22 PM (#6039478)
I very much agree with 210.
   215. spivey 2 Posted: September 13, 2021 at 03:57 PM (#6039491)
Agree with the comments on the tackles from behind. On top of that, the ref clearly was NOT going to call any foul at all on the Harvey Elliott tackle except for the fact that Salah and the medics running on the field made the game be stopped.

The league's come a good ways on starting to call fouls even when the tackler gets the ball, and calling fouls on reckless plays even when there's no contact (because the player had to try to avoid it), but there's still a long way to go.

The announcers even mentioned it, but there was one of those from-behind-hook tackles done just several minutes after Elliott went down. And though it was cleaner, I don't think a foul was called on it.
   216. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: September 13, 2021 at 04:21 PM (#6039498)
Golazo from Townsend and Everton have turned this around. Second half a lot more entertaining that the first half.
   217. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 13, 2021 at 05:12 PM (#6039509)
Burnley has been quite decent this year, by xG anyway. 1 point is not doing them justice for their games against Brighton, Leeds, and now Everton. Wolves is the other real hard luck team so far.
   218. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: September 13, 2021 at 06:27 PM (#6039523)
Burnley has been quite decent this year, by xG anyway. 1 point is not doing them justice for their games against Brighton, Leeds, and now Everton. Wolves is the other real hard luck team so far.

The Wolves haven't been able to put the ball in the net until this last weekend, but their games have been a lot more entertaining. Part of that is the return of Jimenez, who's been good but snakebit in terms of scoring, but clearly a lot of it is the style. I loved Espirito Santo, but Lage has them playing a much more fun brand of soccer.
   219. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 14, 2021 at 04:11 AM (#6039575)
Europa group winner odds. Odds to qualify is harder to find, and group winners get a bye round, so has much more meaning than in the CL. (538 in parens)
Group A
Lyon             48        (34)
Rangers          31        (47)
SpartaPrague     14        (14)
Brondby           7         (5)

Group B
Sociedad         40        (48)
Monaco           30        (24) 
PSV              23        (26)
SturmGraz         7         (3)

Group C 
Napoli           43        (54)
Leicester        42        (37)
SpartakMoscow     9         (6)
LegiaWarsaw       6         (3)

Group D
Eintracht        45        (44)
Olympiakos       22        (33)
Fenerbache       22        (17)
Antwerp          11         (6)

Group E
Lazio            49        (42)
Marseille        26        (29)
Galatasary       14        (18)
LokomotivMoscow  11        (11)

Group F
Braga            30        (39)
RedStarBelgrade  30        (22)
Midtjylland      24        (33)
Ludogorets       16         (6)

Group G
Leverkusen       43        (38)
Betis            33        (34)
Celtic           17        (23)
Ferencvaros       7         (6)

Group H
WestHam          48        (48)
Zagreb           25        (24)
RapidVienna      15         (6)
Genk             12        (22)

Europa Winner. Close to 50% likely to come from 3rd place CL teams. (538 in parens)
Napoli            6         (7)
Leicester         6         (3)
WestHam           5         (4)
Sociedad          4.5       (7)
Leverkusen        4.5       (3)
Lazio             4.5       (2)
Eintracht         3.5       (2)
Lyon              3.5       (2)
Betis             2.5       (3)
Monaco            2         (2)
PSV               2         (2)
Marseille         1.5       (<1)
Rangers           1.5       (3)
Celtic            1         (1)
Field             6         (5)
   220. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 14, 2021 at 04:40 AM (#6039576)
Highest rated teams not in the CL: Arsenal/Tottenham 13/14th in ELO. (Napoli 15th in 538)
Highest rated team not in CL/EL/ECL: Arsenal
Highest rated non-English team not in CL/EL/ECL: Gladbach 34th in ELO. (Bilbao 36th in 538)
Highest rated non-top4 league team not in CL/EL/ECL: West Brom 78th in ELO. (Fulham 70th in 538)
Highest rated non-top4 league team not in CL/EL/ECL (non-English division): Nice 82nd in ELO (74th in 538)
Highest rated non-top5 league team not in CL/EL/ECL (non-English division): Utrecht (Netherlands): way above 100th in ELO (90th in 538).

   221. The_Ex Posted: September 14, 2021 at 07:55 AM (#6039578)
538 having PSG (with Messi) with almost the same odds as Leipzig (near the bottom of the Bundesliga) is wacky, wacky stuff.

Last year with Nagelsman coaching Leipzig and with no Messi in Paris you might think those odds are OK, but this year?
   222. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 14, 2021 at 09:50 AM (#6039590)
538 doesn't seem to "know" about Messi, since it determines squad value prior to the start of the season, and Messi was traded I think right after the preseason 538 ratings were run. Straight ELO doesn't know about Messi at all, really, since he's barely featured in any of the games so far.

Before a season begins, a team’s SPI ratings are based on two factors: its ratings at the end of the previous season, and its market value as calculated by Transfermarkt (a site that assigns a monetary value to each player, based on what they would fetch in a transfer). We’ve found that a team’s market value — relative to their league’s average value — is strongly correlated with its end-of-season SPI rating. Thus, we use these market values to infer each team’s preseason SPI rating.

The ratings never accounted for coaching, except indirectly. PSG being not much better than the other best French teams last year (Lyon had a better or at least equal xGD, with Monaco not that far behind, and of course, Lille actually won the league) put a big damper on their ELO and 538 rankings.

   223. spivey 2 Posted: September 14, 2021 at 12:44 PM (#6039616)
PSG is interesting. Their midfield is better with Wijnaldum, but their team is injury prone and if Verratti is injured during the knockouts I still think they won't be able to control midfield and you can always be vulnerable when that's the case. Even if everyone's healthy, I think they'll struggle to control midfield vs. the top teams anyways. Especially since their defense isn't that great, imo. And then 2 of their best attackers (Messi and M'Bappe) don't track back. It's the most talented team, but also very unbalanced and injury prone.

I think it'll be highly entertaining.
   224. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 14, 2021 at 01:09 PM (#6039623)
Salzburg has 2 shots so far. Both penalties. 1 was put wide though, so it's 0-1 only.
   225. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 14, 2021 at 01:23 PM (#6039628)
Straight red for AWB. Not intentional but very dangerous, and could have injured the guy. United down to 10, though up a goal. United have been the superior team to this point but not exactly dominant, so you'd expect YB to have the advantage for the next 55 minutes.

edit: harsh? Probably a yellow in the EPL, but a red was understandable due to the injury risk.
   226. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 14, 2021 at 01:30 PM (#6039630)
4 penalties in Sevilla/Salzburg. 1-1, because Salzburg missed 2 of them. Salzburg has 4 shots, none from open play. If they don't at least draw this game Salzburg is going to severely rue their misses, as this was a real chance to turn the tightest group upside down.

United has not looked good down a man, with nothing going forward and a big miss by YB the other way. Game really should be level, based on chances at least. United only has two shots, but one was a very big chance, and goal, and the other was a decent chance as well.
   227. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 14, 2021 at 01:35 PM (#6039631)
Started pouring buckets in Sevilla. Hopefully it lets up before the second half starts. Rain that hard puts a major drag on the proceedings.
   228. bunyon Posted: September 14, 2021 at 02:13 PM (#6039633)
Where are you watching these games?
   229. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 14, 2021 at 02:17 PM (#6039634)
Sevilla had a man sent off in the 50th minute, and Salzburg has understandably had the edge since then, though with no high xG chances. If they don't end up winning this game, it's a huge, huge chance missed.
   230. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 14, 2021 at 02:20 PM (#6039635)
Unsanctioned streams. There are many, many online.

Have to say, with Ronaldo on United I can't really root for them under most circumstances.

edit: United being outshot 17-2 right now. They've been poor since AWB went out, though they have limited YB's chances to low-XG attempts aside from the equalizer. If YB were any better, United would almost certainly be losing.
   231. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 14, 2021 at 02:31 PM (#6039637)
OGS, with his team working very hard and playing poorly down a man, holds onto 3 subs until the 87th minute. Two still left.

edit: announcers congratulating United for their play going down a man for 55 minutes. That's a sad joke. Giving up the lead and holding on for a draw (if they manage that) is no better than par under these circumstances, considering the competition. And they sure as #### didn't look very good doing it, giving up 15 shots to 0 or something, and quite a bit of xG.

edit2: and a very bad defensive mistake in the last minute by Lingard. 2-1 Young Boys. Fully deserved, though probably not on that gift. United really do deserve the loss today. The group gets a little more interesting, but if United is going to be upset, this is the team to lose to, since they probably won't advance anyway.
   232. bunyon Posted: September 14, 2021 at 02:44 PM (#6039638)
I'm at work so unsanctioned streams might be trouble.

Thanks for the commentary. Wish I'd seen that.
   233. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 14, 2021 at 04:18 PM (#6039651)
Barca has only 3 shots through 60 minutes, and are now down 0-2 at home to Bayern. Bayern doesn't have high xG but they've seemingly had all the dangerous possession, so a lead at this point is not the least bit surprising. If this 1 game is any indication, and it's probably way too early to say that, Barca is not a real contender this year. They have to be much better at home, even against Bayern.

I'm not watching the Chelsea game, but somehow they can't seem to get any quality chances at home against Zenit.

Wolfsburg still without a shot through 60 minutes in a critical matchup away at Lille. Still 0-0.

edit: and now Wolfsburg down to 10. No shots before that, so hard to imagine they'll get many now.
   234. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 14, 2021 at 04:45 PM (#6039659)
The Villarreal/Atalanta game is the other critical one today. And it has been pretty interesting. 2-2 now, with Coquelin just sent off with his second yellow.
   235. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 14, 2021 at 04:59 PM (#6039662)
Last second penalty in the Lille game? Called on the field, but appeared to be outside the box by 6 inches. Should just be a dangerous free kick.

edit: and the kick is finally taken 3 minutes later, in the 9th minute of stoppage time. Goes nowhere. Wolfsburg holds on 0-0, which is a good enough result under these circumstances but a pretty bad performance. Especially with Sevilla failing to beat Salzburg at home, this tightest group is now tighter than ever.

John Brooks was the player sent off for Wolfsburg for two yellows.

United probably catches a break with Villarreal/Atalanta drawing. Too early to say for sure, but the worst result for them probably would have been a Villarreal win, which looked to be in the cards for much of the game.
   236. jmurph Posted: September 15, 2021 at 08:19 AM (#6039766)
I'm at work so unsanctioned streams might be trouble.

I assume you know this already and I'm just missing something, but just in case anyone doesn't know, all the games are available on Paramount+. It's even more poorly organized than Peacock if you can believe it, but they're there nonetheless.

   237. bunyon Posted: September 15, 2021 at 08:27 AM (#6039770)
Didn’t know that. And I have it. Yeehaw!
   238. jmurph Posted: September 15, 2021 at 08:45 AM (#6039773)
Oh good. Yeah it's honestly a good deal, all of the european games, Serie A, Argentina and Brazil leagues, and I think quite a few women's games.
   239. bunyon Posted: September 15, 2021 at 08:59 AM (#6039774)
Thanks! It’s mostly my wife’s choice and I think the newer Trek shows. It hadn’t occurred to me to look for sports there. I generally hate the interfaces of these apps so tend not to explore as much as I should.
   240. bunyon Posted: September 15, 2021 at 12:53 PM (#6039809)
No sooner had I turned a game on than a colleague walked in.

I guess I'll have to mute it as well.
   241. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 15, 2021 at 01:32 PM (#6039816)
Despite not having any possession or completing any passes, this Sheriff team continues to give their superior opponents fits. I haven't been watching, but they have lots of shots and are up a goal at the half against Shakhtar. Realistically, this is a must win for Shakhtar since the top half of the group has Inter and Real Madrid.
   242. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 15, 2021 at 01:41 PM (#6039819)
The Turkish teams have really slipped a lot in the last few years. After a lively start to this one, Besiktas is now being played right off the pitch. Unlikely the Turkish league will have a team representing them in the CL next year, unless they can get through multiple rounds of qualifiers. And it just looks like they are slipping further each year at the moment.
   243. bunyon Posted: September 15, 2021 at 01:48 PM (#6039821)
They looked really good the first 10 minutes. Better than Dortmund. Knowing nothing about them, I was thinking they had a shot. That hope faded fast.
   244. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 15, 2021 at 02:05 PM (#6039824)
After seemingly an endless siege at the Sheriff end for 15 minutes, Sheriff gets one clear chance the other way and puts it in. 2-0.
   245. KronicFatigue Posted: September 15, 2021 at 02:18 PM (#6039825)
Regarding Paramount+, be on the lookout for coupons for CBS Sportsline, as having a premium membership there includes Paramount+. I haven't done a deep dive, but on their front page right now it looks like you can get 4 months for 5 bucks total. Again, if interested, you should read the fine print to make sure P+ is included in that deal. Last year I was able to grab 12 months for I think 20-25 and when I instantly cancelled they added another 3-6 months. I'm not great with math, but I think it works out to them paying me to watch.

Serie A going over to P+ is awesome, and once I get motivated I'll probably drop Espn+ since I have no interest in La Liga.
   246. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: September 15, 2021 at 03:00 PM (#6039829)
Spoiled for choices. Three great games, not sure which to watch honestly.
   247. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 15, 2021 at 03:46 PM (#6039838)
It's a nightmare for Liverpool. After absolutely blowing Milan for 40 minutes, but only leading 1-0, they give up 2 goals in 2 minutes.
   248. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: September 15, 2021 at 03:51 PM (#6039840)
I blame myself. I went to the bathroom... I have literally no idea what the hell happened.
   249. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 15, 2021 at 04:09 PM (#6039843)
Brugge, projected to be one of the very worst teams here, has easily outplayed PSG, projected to be the best, through 50 minutes. A little luck and they'd be ahead right now.
   250. spivey 2 Posted: September 15, 2021 at 04:15 PM (#6039846)
A bunch of high scoring and interesting games in the afternoon slate.

Ajax really taking it to Sporting. Ajax the last few years has been a team that I think has really stepped up against good competition. That Brazilian right winger they have Antony looks like he could be special.
   251. spivey 2 Posted: September 15, 2021 at 04:56 PM (#6039852)
PSG has never truly prioritized midfield. A lot of new faces that haven't played together and a lot of guys who aren't match fit, but I still don't see a well balanced team. They'll have to beat good teams by counter attacking. Which I guess tbf, they've been successful at in the CL the last couple of years. But it often isn't going to look good.
   252. spivey 2 Posted: September 16, 2021 at 11:27 AM (#6039960)
A lot of interesting results in the CL, but one I didn't see referenced was Atletico Madrid. Pretty badly outplayed at home by Porto.
   253. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 16, 2021 at 01:16 PM (#6039979)
Celtic up 0-2 already at Betis, in a very difficult group, which also includes Leverkusen. If they hold on to win this one it will be a big upset and go a long way to putting them through. no fluke to this point either, as Celtic is giving them fits on the break. It's still very early though, so Betis could right the ship.

Leverkusen is somehow behind at home to Ferencvaros, so I guess you never know.
   254. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 16, 2021 at 01:23 PM (#6039983)
On Atleti, all the La Liga teams were poor yesterday except Villarreal. Their teams had a win, three draws, and a loss, but that flatters them quite a bit.

Betis already got 2 back and it's level again.
   255. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 16, 2021 at 04:52 PM (#6040011)
Revised CL betting odds after one group round.
             current   pre-tourney      
Group A
City            92         82 
PSG             83         81
Leipzig         22         32
Brugge           7          5 

Group B
Liverpool       86         75 
Atleti          53         62 
Milan           33         36
Porto           28         24 

Group C      
Dortmund        89         78 
Ajax            82         57 
Sporting        16         44 
Besiktas        13         21

Group D
RealMadrid      94         90
Inter           79         75 
Shakhtar        16         31
Sheriff          7          4 

Group E     
Bayern          94         86 
Barcelona       65         76 
Benfica         31         30 
Kyiv            10          8 

Group F
United          70         80
Atalanta        53         65
YoungBoys       40         11
Villarreal      37         44 

Group G      
Sevilla         62         66 
Wolfsburg       57         53 
Lille           43         44 
Salzburg        38         37

Group H      
Chelsea         94         89 
Juventus        84         76
Zenit           19         26 
Malmo            3          9 

Not a lot of interesting changes except Ajax virtually locking up a spot, and Young Boys jumping into the mix. Sporting basically got eliminated.
   256. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 17, 2021 at 03:16 PM (#6040136)
Rodrigo with a gorgeous dummy in front of goal allowing a well-aimed low cross from Raphinha to go straight in. Very nicely done.

Newcastle is already one of the three teams most likely to go down. A loss at home today to a Leeds team that has struggled so far this year would hurt a lot.
   257. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: September 17, 2021 at 04:18 PM (#6040143)
They equalized just before the half but nearing the hour mark they have been unimpressive. Their defending is crap. They are leaving all kinds of space.
   258. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 17, 2021 at 05:01 PM (#6040151)
xG ended up being pretty even. Shots too. I wasn't able to watch large portions of the game, but didn't think Newcastle looked very good early at least. Leeds might now have a better chance of being relegated this year than getting a spot in Europe, though neither is likely. Newcastle will be odds on for relegation.
   259. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: September 17, 2021 at 09:24 PM (#6040205)
Mike Ashley really has to win some sort of lifetime achievement "Randall" award ...
Relegation is the *least* he deserves (though, like sanctions, I understand it *really* hurts the least deserving of the punishment, sigh).
   260. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 18, 2021 at 12:18 PM (#6040269)
Speaking of relegation, there was an early 6-pointer today. I didn't watch, but Watford won on the road, and the stats for them looked good as well. Norwich really can't afford to lose at home to their competitors for the drop, so the loss puts them in a very bad spot, and easily projected for 20th place in the EPL. Big result for Watford; with Newcastle and Burnley both losing, Watford might not even be projected as bottom 3 anymore, though it's probably close.

And speaking of Burnley, they were another hard luck loser at home to Arsenal, in a very even game. Can't seem to catch a break this year, and have had trouble turning their chances into goals.

City dropping points at home might be the big EPL story of the day. They looked a bit toothless going forward against a Southampton side that mostly played for the draw. Still favorites to win the league over Chelsea and Liverpool, but it's tightened up a lot.
   261. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 18, 2021 at 02:02 PM (#6040281)
Corner kick that would have gone straight in had no one else touched it was glanced by the defender at the near post, over Begovich's hands into the net. Ruled an own goal. On balance that seems correct, as Begovich would have grabbed it easily without the defender's touch. However, the ball was headed straight in, so in most other scenarios that's given to the offensive player. I haven't totally figured out OG logic.
   262. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: September 18, 2021 at 02:28 PM (#6040283)
with Newcastle and Burnley both losing

I know Newcastle are shite, but they are not so shite that their draws count as losses.
   263. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 18, 2021 at 03:02 PM (#6040284)
Heh. Yeah.

Fascinating article about Sheriff, located in Tiraspol, the capital of "Transnistria", a self-governed breakaway state of Moldova that (unlike the rest of Moldova) heavily identifies with Russia.

Cultural and economic ties in Transnistria point firmly towards Russia, whose influence is omnipresent. A Russian army installation is visible shortly before the road out of town reaches Sheriff’s sprawling $200m complex; in the city centre, Russia’s flag flies alongside that of Transnistria atop the parliament building and a towering monument to Lenin guards the entrance. Tiraspol feels like a mid-sized Russian provincial city, ubiquitous Soviet ephemera breeding an eerie sense of being frozen in time, but at an added remove: the local currency, the ruble, cannot be exchanged outside its borders, and western bank cards and mobile phone plans are virtually useless
Sitting in his office Ticu recalls how Gushan and Ilya Kazmaly, believed to have both been KGB officers, constructed the club as an arm of the company, Sheriff, that they founded after the collapse of the USSR. “They used football as a weapon of their business,” he says. “Then they became stronger and stronger, and it isn’t a fair competition. Every Moldovan club pays taxes here from salaries, transfers and international participation. But FC Sheriff never paid one single [Moldovan] leu to our budget. They are Moldovan only in name; there is effectively no attachment.”

Transnistria has long had a reputation for its conduciveness to smuggling and illegal arms trading. Sheriff has been mentioned in connection with that more than once. Last December, Moldova’s public services agency withdrew the licences of Almavis and Tabimport, two cigarette importing companies understood to have close ties to Sheriff’s holding company, amid allegations of a smuggling scheme. “Transnistria became a kind of haven for contraband,” says Ticu of the situation that took root at the loosely policed border with Ukraine from the 1990s.

   264. bunyon Posted: September 19, 2021 at 10:48 AM (#6040394)
Someone should explain to Leicester’s Barnes the offside rule.
   265. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 19, 2021 at 11:00 AM (#6040395)
3 times Ronaldo went down easily, asking for the penalty. Once was a forward's hopeful play, so we can discount that one. The other two were questionable, and might have been penalties prior to this year. It looked like Ronaldo tried for the contact in both cases, especially the second, where the defender missed the ball completely but it appeared that Ronaldo tried to drag his feet to make contact and intentionally dove over the outstretched leg when it was completely unnecessary. The first one was quite questionable and I can see it going either way, but again it looked like potentially Ronaldo threw his knee into the other player. If that first one had been called on the field, though, probably no way it gets overturned.

Now Shaw with his arm way out--handball to block a cross just inside the box, so had to be a penalty in the last minute of the game. Saved by De Gea though, and that's the game.
   266. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 19, 2021 at 11:19 AM (#6040396)
Commentators after the game noted an AWB foul that should have been a penalty too. Wasn't called on the field or reviewed by VAR, but it was at least as much a penalty as the first Ronaldo play, so they seem to have a point. Only saving grace is the fouled player might have been offside--it was very close.
   267. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 19, 2021 at 11:39 AM (#6040397)
Ronaldo's problem on the last penalty shout is he saw the leg in front of him and went down without making any contact with it. He needed to maintain his run and let one of his feet clip the leg and then fall. Then it would have probably been a penalty. As it was, I think no penalty is absolutely the right call. The first one is the one where United might have gotten shafted.
   268. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 19, 2021 at 12:51 PM (#6040403)
Spurs have played pretty well today but now down 0-2 off of a corner and a deflected goal. Would be a shame, except that they've been very lucky this year so far, so can;t feel too bad for them.

On that deflected goal, Lloris had no chance to keep the ball from going past him, but had he actually dived towards the post he might have actually been able to save it, considering that it caromed at such an angle off the post it actually crossed the goal line near the middle of the goal. Still can't blame him as that was a freak bounce and the ball could have gone anywhere, and certainly he could not have anticipated diving right at the post might have saved the goal off the carom.
   269. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 19, 2021 at 01:22 PM (#6040405)
Well, Chelsea ran Spurs off the pitch in the second half, so that was pretty short-lived.
   270. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 19, 2021 at 03:11 PM (#6040416)
EPL revised points expectation (change from pre-season in parens)
                   odds          538

Manchester City     84  (-3)     83  (+2)
Chelsea             83  (+5)     78  (+5)

Liverpool           80  (+3)     81  (+7)
Manchester United   79  (+5)     72  (+4)

Tottenham           59  (-1)     56  (-4)
Arsenal Points      58  (-4)     54  (-6)
Leicester City      56  (-3)     52  (-5)

Everton             53   (0)     54  (+4)
Brighton            53  (+7)     55  (+4)
West Ham United     52  (+2)     55  (+3)

Leeds United        48  (-6)     44  (-6)
Aston Villa         47  (-2)     51  (+2)

Wolverhampton       43   (0)     45  (-1)
Brentford           42  (+4)     45  (+7)
Crystal Palace      41  (+2)     42  (+4)
Southampton         41   (0)     44  (+1)

Watford             35  (+1)     37  (+1)
Burnley             35  (-4)     37  (-4)
Newcastle United    34  (-5)     36  (-8)
Norwich City        31  (-4)     30  (-7)

A few interesting points. 538 is more volatile than betting odds generally, as I've noted in the past they tend to overcorrect on a game-by-game basis, likely in part because they don't adjust one league versus another midseason. This means a best fit to the European results as well probably requires an over-adjustment for each game. It's a flaw in their system. Another very interesting point is how City has come down significantly in betting odds but 538 has been very impressed with their play overall, counteracting their mediocre league results.

Generally speaking, the top 4 have already pulled away from the chasing pack, and now it seems unlikely there will be any interesting CL-spot races. The race for the other European spots is wide, wide open.
   271. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 19, 2021 at 03:44 PM (#6040419)
For 538, after the top 4, where City is still easily the best of the bunch and United still easily the worst, 538 has a huge dropoff to the 5th best team. Teams 5-11 in current rating (8 teams, including Wolves but not Leeds) are very tightly bunched.

Betting odds doesn't feel the same about that. They have Chelsea as closer to City, with Liverpool only a tad better than United. Both systems have Arsenal as slightly better than Spurs now (Arsenal trailing in projections due to banked points only), with Leicester still not far behind. Betting odds though still has a fairly big dropoff after that, with Everton, West Ham, and Leeds, then Brighton and Villa, and finally Wolves. Notably here betting odds still sees something in Leeds, having them as solidly midtable going forward, while 538 has almost given up on them, putting them more in the group that includes the near-bottom table teams, like Southampton and Brentford.

For the bottom of the table, betting odds has Southampton, Brentford, Palace, and Burnley, then Norwich, Newcastle, and finally Watford. Other than the surprisingly high expectation for Norwich, that's the same as 538. These 7 teams are not particularly tightly bunched, with Norwich, Newcastle, and Watford looking like the true worst teams right now by both methods.

   272. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 19, 2021 at 05:02 PM (#6040426)
It's tempting to blame the shift in lineup (minute 63 off came NDombele and GLC) for Spurs inability to do anything going forward for the last part of the game. And maybe that's true. They hadn't done anything for the previous 30 minutes either though, while giving up 2 goals and a number of chances, so that seems highly debatable. Chelsea shut down Spurs and won the game while those two were on the pitch, not after. The bombardment in the last 15 minutes was just icing on the cake, and maybe partially the result of Spurs' weakened lineup, or just losing focus in a game they basically knew at that point they had lost. Or they just got tired.
   273. The Marksist Posted: September 21, 2021 at 02:28 PM (#6040735)
Rejoice, fellow think-factory assembly line workers, for it is League Cup day in Jolly Old England! A day for getting unreasonably excited about the random youth team players called into the starting lineup for your favorite team! A day where you realize that there's a reason your manager doesn't play 11 backups in games that matter! A day for disjointed, lackadaisical games and huge disparities in talent! A day of silliness and frolic and frustration! Revel in it, comrades!
   274. The Marksist Posted: September 21, 2021 at 03:35 PM (#6040750)
Liverpool/Norwich exactly living up to my expectations. Weird goal! No game control! Baaaaaad passing abounds!
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