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Monday, August 09, 2021

OT Soccer Thread - Transfer! Kits! Other Stuff!

Bundesliga, Premier League and La Liga start August 13.

Serie A August 20.

Ligue Une started this weekend.  I haven’t paid attention to much but I assume defending champions Lille are expected to repeat.

Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference last qualifying rounds are the week of August 16 with draws for the group stages on the 27th.

Women’s Champions League qualifying rounds are the week of the 16th as well.

English Women’s Super League starts September 3rd.

Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: August 09, 2021 at 09:01 AM | 459 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off topic, soccer

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   401. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: October 10, 2021 at 08:03 PM (#6045177)
Yeah that was grim. I don’t remember a single moment where it looked like we’d score. Given the compressed schedule it’s hard to really argue with wholesale changes but as Aunt Bea said, it showed. We weren’t in any kind of rhythm ever.
   402. Pirate Joe Posted: October 10, 2021 at 08:36 PM (#6045180)
There were 7 minutes of stopped play alone in the last 10 minutes.


Not to mention the first time the game had to be stopped for multiple minutes for a Panamanian player to be stretchered off. There should have been at least 10 minutes.

But as you say, not that it would have mattered.

Edited to add, it was also interesting that twice in stoppage time they had to hold the game up while a Panamanian fan ran onto the field and played one of the balls on the sideline that are there for throw-ins, and yet the second the clock hit 7 minutes the ref blew the whistle.

Moral of the story, fans running onto the field stopping the game works.

   403. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 11, 2021 at 09:48 AM (#6045401)
So the France goal was given because the Spanish defender made a deliberate attempt to play the ball, and made contact, with the French player in an offside position Mbappe not judged to have influenced the play. What a ####### joke. This is the same type play I have been complaining about for years now. We saw it in the Women's World Cup, and we'll see it on own goals and the like. Here it's really egregious, because the Spanish defender barely touched the ball and because Mbappe had a clear run on goal and was only inches offside to begin with (no way Spanish defender could have known, as Mbappe was behind him). Most importantly, Mbappe was literally three yards from the defender as he was making contact, and perfectly positioned to run onto the through ball, which was played to Mbappe's run. If that's not influencing the play then nothing is.
   404. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 11, 2021 at 10:03 AM (#6045411)
So much wrong with this call.

First, if this by Garcia was a "deliberate play" starting a new phase, then so should a GK's intentional parry of a shot that's put back in on the rebound by a player who was in an offside position. There's no obvious difference. Deliberate play should be interpreted for something where the defending team has control over the play, not desperately trying to prevent an attack.

Second, the interfering part. At least on a GK's parry usually the offside forward that puts the ball back into the net is not directly interfering influencing the GK's attempt to block the shot. And yet it's still offside. Here Mbappe's positioning was the entire reason Garcia made an attempt on the ball in the fist place.

This rule really has to be changed. It's counterintuitive and counterproductive, and goes against the spirit of the offside rule. I hope they fix the way it is called, even if they don't change the actual wording of the rule.
   405. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 11, 2021 at 04:21 PM (#6045529)
Somehow Turkey is losing to Latvia. Latvia has 0 shots on target, and is up an own goal. With Norway currently leading, Norway will have virtually wrapped up second in the group if these scores hold up. They would just need a home win against Latvia, and wouldn't have to worry about losing to the Netherlands in the last group game.

Even more fun, they would go to the Netherlands with a chance to take first in the group with a win. It's not likely but you never know. With two rounds of playoffs, teams would vastly prefer to finish first in the group this year.

edit: Turkey finally scored, but the same point holds. They really need to beat Latvia.

   406. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 11, 2021 at 04:40 PM (#6045531)
Norway holds on (and gets a last second goal to clinch it too), and Turkey can't get the goal they need. So Norway looks good for at least second in the group. Haaland didn't play.
Romania got the big win against Armenia, and now have the inside track, so are likely to finish second in their group. Germany clinches a WC spot.
Croatia couldn't win at home, and Russia won away. Those two will finish top in their group, but now Croatia probably will need to beat Russia in their final matchup, or will be sent to the playoff.

edit: Oh the Turkey game was not over! They get a late, late winner maybe. That puts some intrigue back in the race for second. Turkey faces Gibraltar and then goes to Montenegro, so they could win both. That means potentially Norway will need a draw against the Netherlands to finish second in the group.

   407. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 12, 2021 at 04:17 PM (#6045856)
In a big matchup in Sweden, Greece was far superior in the first half and hit the post twice. Two long balls to Isak and two goals in the second (one off a pen), and Sweden has second place in the group basically wrapped up now. If Sweden takes care of Georgia, which is very likely, they will "only" need to draw Spain, in Spain, to win the group. If Spain fails to beat Greece next round (unlikely, but certainly possible) then Sweden will clinch first with a win against Georgia.
   408. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 12, 2021 at 04:46 PM (#6045865)
Poland won away to Albania. If they manage to hold on, they've basically wrapped up second. England only got the draw so they have a tiny bit of work to do to win the group still Should be no problem.

Denmark became the third team to clinch a spot in the finals (after auto-Qatar and Germany).

Serbia, Portugal, and Switzerland all won against easy opponents, so those two groups are still in line to go down to the last day (Portugal/Serbia and France/Switzerland), with the away teams likely needing a shock win to top the group. Switzerland does have an off-chance of going into the game needing only a draw.

Scotland took almost all game but got a late winner against the Faroes. Almost there for second. Austria will get through via the Nations League, so will be away in the first round of the playoffs.

Ukraine failed to beat Bosnia at home, so that group stays very tight, with those two plus Finland all with a shot to finish second still. Bosnia plays the other two at home in their last two games, and most likely just needs a win and a draw. If Ukraine wins in Bosnia they likely take the group. Finland probably needs to win in Bosnia and either get a result against France or some help.

Edit: Albania/Poland is in the 22nd minute of stoppage time. Apparently delayed due to players getting hit by bottles thrown from the stands.
   409. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: October 13, 2021 at 02:06 AM (#6046037)
Just a fantastic piece, well worth the time ...
"Son," Daniel told Ricardo. "I'm not moving here. We're not coming."

If that wasn't deflating enough, Daniel turned the question on Ricardo.

"I want to know if you're ready to come back?"

As soon as Daniel asked the question, Ricardo started to cry. Whatever dreams he imagined himself pursuing were suddenly in doubt. To be 13 years old and to say no to the person who's given you so much feels like the most difficult answer you'll ever give.

In between tears, Ricardo said he understood how hard the distance between them had been, because he felt it too. He missed his family the most, but he also missed El Paso and Juárez. He missed the friends and family on both sides of that river that separates everyone there.

"I love you all," Ricardo told his father. "But this is my dream and I'm going to stay. I'll miss all of you."

Link
   410. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 13, 2021 at 02:02 PM (#6046102)
This game isn't a must win for the USMNT, but a win puts them back on track for qualifying. A draw means they will very likely have to do better in the second half of games than they did in the first half, and a loss would be flat out bad.

Hopefully the US and Canada both win these big games at home, and the qualifying gets a little more comfortable going forward.
   411. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 13, 2021 at 07:30 PM (#6046170)
Well that was a supreme bit of quality by Dest. Defender gave him too much respect on the threat of the dribble and didn't think he'd go with his left foot.

Costa Rica has not played well recently, but they still might be the 4th best team in the octagonal. A win today would be very big, and if they can come from behind to do it, that would be all the sweeter. Based on the way the game has gone so far, the US really should still be expected to win this one.
   412. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 13, 2021 at 08:52 PM (#6046185)
Costa Rica just doesn't have any offense in their team. Midfield is a little suspect as well. In many of their recent games they've barely taken any shots, and today is no different.

It's really Canada's year to jump into that third spot. I hope they can take care of Panama tonight. Still 30 minutes left.
   413. Esmailyn Gonzalez Sr. Posted: October 13, 2021 at 08:59 PM (#6046187)
Alfonso Davies is good
   414. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 13, 2021 at 09:01 PM (#6046189)
These SN1 announcers are quite the homers for Canada. Seriously though, Davies does deserve all the praise.
   415. spivey 2 Posted: October 13, 2021 at 09:50 PM (#6046197)
Alfonso Davies is the best LB in the world, and Canada has a couple of other good players too. I'm excited for them!
   416. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: October 14, 2021 at 08:34 AM (#6046223)
One thing that strikes me having seen every team but Mexico against the US now is how weak the bottom half of the Octagonal is. The drop off for Honduras and Costa Rica has been substantial. Last night was a bit nervewracking but really the US were the superior team all the way. A couple of bizarre snoozes nearly cost them dearly (thank god it was Ruiz with that breakaway) and that can't happen against Mexico. The impact of Tyler Adams can't be overstated. The guy who really opened my eyes this window was Aaronson, he just attacks endlessly. It seemed like every good thing that happened in the final third was running through him at some point.

11 points through 6 games has us well on pace. I think the big thing right now is we aren't dropping points we shouldn't. I think you can argue we should have gotten a point at Panama but other than that I don't have a lot of complaints with results so far. My two criticisms right now are;

slow starts - first goal in the first half in nine games. That needs work. Shades of the Bradley era there.

confusion in the non-regular lineup - It was disheartening to see how poorly the heavily changed side looked against Panama. Berhalter has to figure out a way to get those guys on the same page. Next window is just two matches but the following two windows are both three matches so the rotation will be needed again there.

And among all this it should be noted that six points without Pulisic or Reyna is encouraging.
   417. Pirate Joe Posted: October 15, 2021 at 08:05 PM (#6046746)
The guy who really opened my eyes this window was Aaronson, he just attacks endlessly. It seemed like every good thing that happened in the final third was running through him at some point.


I was at the game on Wednesday and for me he was the man of the match. He played on both the left and the right and no matter where he was the ball just seemed to find him. And of course when the ball just seems to keep finding a player that's no accident.
   418. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 16, 2021 at 08:54 AM (#6046846)
Salah is looking fantastic today. A great solo goal is getting all the praise, but I'm actually partial to the turn at midfield followed by the fantastic outside of the boot one-touch cross-field assist, finished beautifully on the run by Mane. To me that goal was so clinical, brutal, and sweet.
   419. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: October 16, 2021 at 11:40 AM (#6046854)
Leicester go ahead on the rare Soyuncu goal. Richly deserved for Leicester though, it's been eye opening how much they've dominated the United midfield today.
   420. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: October 16, 2021 at 11:44 AM (#6046857)
2 minutes later...see, Leicester still up a goal. Nothing to see here.
   421. I am going to be Frank Posted: October 16, 2021 at 12:24 PM (#6046864)
United is so bad defensively. Leicester should have scored at least two more - De Gea really is better when United defense is crap.
Matic should never play with Pogba unless it is against the bottom of the table teams. As limited as Fred is, his mobility/activity is just so needed. Varane has his faults but his speed/athleticism compliments Maguire well.

The Fred/Mctominay double pivot with Pogba playing left is the best midfield United can put out there. Of coures that means one of the attackers has to sit, but until United find a proper defensive midfielder(s) this is not a team that can challenge for any titles.
   422. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 16, 2021 at 01:05 PM (#6046875)
Yeah United is not good enough to win titles right now, unless they get relegated to Europa. We knew that coming into the season though. Even with their struggles there isn't yet another team in the league that can make a legitimate claim to be better than them for a CL spot, other than the top 3.

Leeds is much worse than expected, and look worse every game. They have done some major backsliding this year. If they get any worse they could even be relegated.

The other biggest surprise of the year is playing right now. Brentford was expected to be decent for a newly promoted team, but they have significantly exceeded those expectations.
   423. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 16, 2021 at 02:18 PM (#6046891)
This last 20 minutes of Brentford laying siege to Chelsea's goal has been very compelling. No goal for Brentford but it's hard to understand exactly how.
   424. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 16, 2021 at 02:20 PM (#6046892)
At least 10 shots since the 73rd minute, and at least 6 from inside the box, and at least 3 of those surely could have been goals on another day.

edit: capped off by a good bicycle kick saved just barely by Mendy.
   425. jmurph Posted: October 18, 2021 at 07:42 AM (#6047103)
Salah is looking fantastic today. A great solo goal is getting all the praise, but I'm actually partial to the turn at midfield followed by the fantastic outside of the boot one-touch cross-field assist, finished beautifully on the run by Mane. To me that goal was so clinical, brutal, and sweet.

That was one of the best individual performances I've seen in a while, Salah was incredible.
   426. Mefisto Posted: October 18, 2021 at 01:41 PM (#6047178)
Gio Reyna won't be back for the November qualifiers. Anybody know about Pulisic?
   427. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: October 18, 2021 at 02:33 PM (#6047192)
The Wolves scoring three goals in the last 10 minutes and stoppage time to come back and beat Aston Villa was incredibly fun. They looked absolutely cooked after that second goal by Villa when Hwang (who had a pretty terrible game after looking good alongside Jimenez the last few weeks) inexplicably gave the ball away on an unforced error right outside the box. But Podence came on and was a force, allowing the Wolves to score a couple of goals off of corners, and then Neves got a fortunate bounce on a free kick just outside the box to complete the comeback. So much fun.
   428. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 18, 2021 at 05:29 PM (#6047242)
Despite all their uneven play, 538 still has Arsenal as 5th best in the EPL (going forward, not likely to end up in 5th due to being behind in the table). Before this weekend's games betting odds viewed them the same way. Arsenal got a draw while all the rest of their competition for 5th spot got big wins, so maybe that will change a bit in betting odds. 538 had the Arsenal game today as a mild negative for Arsenal (in terms of expected ability going forward), had the Spurs game as a medium positive for Spurs, and had the Wets Ham and Leicester games as fairly big positives for those two teams.

According to 538 and to a lesser extent betting odds, the race for Europa is still wide, wide open, with 9 teams, now including Brentford, legitimately in the mix for 5th/6th spot. 10 if you include ManU going backwards.
   429. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: October 19, 2021 at 01:04 PM (#6047453)
City have had 2 goals ruled out in the first 15 minutes. One for offside, which couldn't have been more than a hair's width either way. Another for what is the softest foul call I have ever seen.
   430. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 19, 2021 at 01:59 PM (#6047475)
These two teams are considered the best and very near the worst in the CL. It was never likely to be a good game. City has been absolutely dominant.

The "race" for top spot is very interesting going forward, assuming PSG or City really care about it. PSG had the edge on points but certainly not on quality from what we've seen so far.

The "race" for third is also interesting going forward, assuming Leipzig cares about it. (I'm sure Brugge does.) Again, Brugge has the big edge on points but Leipzig is the far better team. Leipzig could make a big splash in Europa if they are so inclined. Not totally out of it yet here in the CL, with two games against PSG, but their odds to advance are not good.

Turkish teams continue to stink up the joint. Sporting could also end up as a force in Europa. (ok, maybe not a force, but they'd have a puncher's chance in Europa.)
   431. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: October 19, 2021 at 02:54 PM (#6047493)
You would expect them to end up in the top 4 by the end of the season, but as things stand, the lawnballers are hardly guaranteed a CL spot for next season. So you would think they would want to keep the extra possibility of getting in via Europa for that reason alone.
   432. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: October 19, 2021 at 03:04 PM (#6047496)
Can I just say that stress how delighted I am that Dortmund are finally playing in neon yellow again. Gimme those Stabilo trikots!

Also, it's about the only way you can see what is happening with the smoke in the stadium right now!
   433. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 19, 2021 at 04:17 PM (#6047513)
Yikes. Griezmann gets a straight red. No intent there, but much more dangerous and with more forward momentum than the clearance by that Swedish player that nearly broke the attacker's leg who came right through him, so I guess not totally unfair.
   434. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: October 19, 2021 at 04:29 PM (#6047516)
He went studs up into somebody's head. That's a red all day, every day. And twice on Sundays.
   435. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 19, 2021 at 04:30 PM (#6047517)
Leipzig had the upset in the works and was taking it to PSG, and then a bad giveaway to Mbappe with nobody in front of him set it up for Messi. 2-2 in this very good one.

edit: Messi's final shot for that was actually on the goal line, on the ground rolling slowly, with nobody near him. Curious about the xG on that one, but it can't possibly get higher.
   436. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 19, 2021 at 04:38 PM (#6047520)
Now another defensive ###### forced by a nice break by Mbappe. Defender never should have pushed him with arms out and really should be off with a second yellow.

The dream for Leipzig is likely over. A draw today would have kept them in it, but a loss and they are done. They have to hope for third now (unless they can pull one back).
   437. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: October 19, 2021 at 04:40 PM (#6047521)
Atletico just gave up a really really stupid penalty. No need for that challenge. That's two moments of sheer madness that have served the game for LFC on a platter. Salah converts from the spot. Still need to see it out of course.
   438. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 19, 2021 at 04:42 PM (#6047524)
Atleti outplayed Liverpool for large stretches of this game, but it's very hard to feel bad for them as they've been overly petulant since the red card.

edit: and that's almost never given as a penalty the other way. But oh well.

edit2: heh. He did reverse it after all. That seems consistent with the recent EPL mandate, but I'm a bit surprised they reversed it here. Had that not been called on the field VAR would certainly never have called for it to be reviewed. There's at least one of those plays every game not given as a penalty.
   439. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: October 19, 2021 at 04:45 PM (#6047527)
Liverpool return the favour, giving up a stupid penalty of their own. Controversially overturned on VAR. Madness.
   440. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: October 19, 2021 at 04:46 PM (#6047529)
I'm sure Simeone will ##### postgame as any manager would but in my opinion the big calls (the red and the PK and non-PK) were all correct.
   441. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 19, 2021 at 05:36 PM (#6047541)
Sporting hosts Dortmund in late November. A Sporting win that day and they likely take second place over Dortmund, considering 1) how bad Besiktas has looked, and 2) Ajax huge GD advantage over Sporting and Dortmund (beat them each by 4). Sporting just needs to beat Besiktas first, also at home, which is very likely, and not have every other result go against them, and then not lose out on GD. All of that's likely except beating Dortmund at home, which is very much within the realm of possibility.

Porto hosts Atleti on the last group stage day, in a game that also now is likely to decide second place. Too early to know which side will need the win, but it's much more likely to be Porto. It's not likely that Atleti will go into the game totally safe though, so mark your calendar for that one too.

If Sheriff can manage a draw against Inter at home in the next round they will keep the excitement going in that group. I wouldn't bet on it.
   442. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 19, 2021 at 06:32 PM (#6047553)
Ajax is making a solid case as one of the top 10 teams in the world right now.
   443. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 20, 2021 at 11:23 AM (#6047759)
Soccer announcers are so annoying. I'm trying to work while paying only slight attention to the Leicester game where they have been down 1-0 all first half. By the tone of the announcers, no doubt responding to the 1-0 deficit, you would think Leicester hasn't done anything on offense to even challenge Spartak, and are being solidly beaten. Now it's actually 2-0.

The shots and chances don't bear this out at all though. The goal for 2-0 was the first shot for Spartak from inside the box, where Leicester has had lots of shots from inside the box as well as some good chances.

And now it's 2-1 and the game is still very much in the balance. Always hard to come from behind, especially on the road, but if Leicester plays another decent half they are least likely to draw this one. Spartak's only being given a 40% chance to win at the half v 28% for Leicester, and 32% for a draw.
   444. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 20, 2021 at 12:13 PM (#6047777)
4 goals for Daka. This was close to a must-win for Leicester, so happy to see them pull it off. If they beat Spartak in the return leg at home they will be in good shape, and are very unlikely to go out if they beat both Spartak and Warsaw at home, even if they lose to Napoli.

edit: 3-4 now... so it's not yet all the way over. (How did they manage to give up 3 goals to this team? I guess Spartak also scored 3 away to Napoli, so there's that.)
   445. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 20, 2021 at 12:42 PM (#6047784)
Announcers were full of praise for Leicester in the second half after mostly rebuke in the first half. That's because the first half was 2-1 Soartak and the second was 1-3 Leicester. The two halves were very similar by xG and chances though, and (based on the shot chart--I didn't watch closely) Leicester first half performance may have been slightly better than their second half.

They gave up 2 huge chances for goals, one at the end of each half. The rest of the shots by Spartak were at the edge of the box or outside. Most of their shots from in the box came in the first half. Once they took the lead, admittedly they didn't need to press as hard to come back, but it's not as if they were doing nothing in the first half. The majority of their xG came in the 35 minutes of the first half when they were trailing.
   446. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 20, 2021 at 02:59 PM (#6047828)
Salzburg has been the class of their weak group, now beating Wolfsburg and Lille soundly, and getting 3 penalties and an early 2nd half red card all go their way (and 1 penalty the other way) in an away draw to Sevilla. Without the pens the xG was pretty low for both teams, and without Sevilla having much of an advantage despite being the supposedly superior team at home. It's a well-balanced group, so anything could still happen, but Salzburg is now very likely to advance and pretty likely to win the group.

Barca finally gets a win. I'd say they are n50/50 to advance.
   447. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 20, 2021 at 03:33 PM (#6047842)
0-2 Atalanta over United. OGS may not survive this one after all!

They haven't actually played that badly. Two set piece goals not well defended.
   448. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 20, 2021 at 04:13 PM (#6047855)
At this point it's fair to say United have been the significantly better team. They just haven't taken their chances (until this last one), of which there have been multiple. The biggest one prior to this was probably the Rashford play where he mis-controlled it allowing the defender to catch up from way behind with a perfect tackle.
   449. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 20, 2021 at 04:43 PM (#6047865)
United has almost 20 shots from inside the box now. They've completely dominated this game except for some defensive lapses and suspect finishing.
   450. Mefisto Posted: October 20, 2021 at 04:44 PM (#6047866)
United have enough talent that they occasionally surmount the shortcomings of their coach and front office.
   451. bunyon Posted: October 20, 2021 at 04:49 PM (#6047868)
Bayern-Benefica was a good game.

Until it wasn't.
   452. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 20, 2021 at 05:35 PM (#6047882)
United has big road games against Villarreal and Atalanta, and really they just needs draws at this point to advance. Not exactly where they wanted to be, but still probably good enough.

Benfica losing by 4 brings GD back into relevance. Barca still would likely have to beat Benfica by 3 goals for that to be then difference though. You never know.
   453. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 20, 2021 at 06:08 PM (#6047894)
Revised betting odds to lift trophy (change from pre-tourney in second column)
City         20         +3
Bayern       18.5       +8
PSG          15         -4
Liverpool    11.5       +3
Chelsea       9.25      -1.25
United        5.5       -1
RealMadrid    3.75      -1.75
Juve          3.25      +0.5
Ajax          2.75      +2
Atleti        2.25      -1.5
Dortmund      1.75      -0.75
Barcelona     1.75      -2
Inter         1.25      -0.25
Atalanta      0.75      -0.5
Sevilla       0.75      -0.75
Salzburg      0.5       +0.25

Other 16      1.5       -2.75


Salzburg is not really on the map yet, though they will advance and probably one or two of the other teams listed here won't. PSG leads their group but have lost the most on an absolute basis, since they have looked so suspect in all their games. Bayern looks great and have almost caught City. Liverpool and Chelsea have switched places. Ajax has been the biggest relative upward mover. The Spanish teams are all down, and only Juve is up from Italy and only Bayern from Germany.
   454. The_Ex Posted: October 20, 2021 at 06:47 PM (#6047911)
Man Utd have a repeatable pattern over the last two years. They play badly, it seems like Ole is at sacking's door, then United pull out a win. It has to have happened a half dozen times at least.
   455. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 20, 2021 at 08:18 PM (#6047936)
            
              current   after R2    after R1   pre-tourney 
Group A
PSG             98         94         83         81
City            98.5       90         92         82 
Brugge           3         10          7          5 
Leipzig          0.5        6         22         32

Group B
Liverpool       99.5       86         75         78
Atleti          63.5       78         53         62 
Porto           27         15         28         24 
Milan           10         13         33         36

Group C      
Ajax            99         92         82         57
Dortmund        89         95         89         78  
Sporting        12          7         16         44 
Besiktas                    4         13         21

Group D
RealMadrid      95         91         94         90
Inter           78         72         79         75 
Sheriff         24         29          7          4 
Shakhtar         4          8         16         31

Group E     
Bayern         100         98         94         86 
Barcelona       52         35         65         76 
Benfica         47         60         31         30 
Kyiv             1          7         10          8 

Group F
United          86         79         70         80
Atalanta        56         70         53         65
Villarreal      45         25         37         44 
YoungBoys       13         26         40         11

Group G      
Salzburg        86         62         38         37
Sevilla         59         60         62         66 
Wolfsburg       33         52         57         53 
Lille           23         26         43         44 

Group H      
Juventus        96         92         84         76
Chelsea         94         90         94         89 
Zenit           10         17         19         26 
Malmo                       1          3          9


Aside from Barcelona, Atalanta, and the very tight group G, where Salzburg has come from the bottom, the favorites to advance coming in now have better odds than they did at the start. If the favorites hold now, we will have seen only one surprise, and it's a very mild one: Salzburg taking the place of Wolfsburg.
   456. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 21, 2021 at 03:45 PM (#6048148)
The two very heavy ECL favorites managed to lose today. Spurs went down 1-0 to Netherlands' Vitesse on the road. And Roma went down in style, 6-1 at Norway's Bodoe/Glimt. Spurs are now third in the group and will likely have to win the return fixture to advance.
   457. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: October 22, 2021 at 08:27 AM (#6048278)
That Roma result is a special one.
   458. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 22, 2021 at 04:27 PM (#6048354)
I missed all the Arsenal/Villa game so far but the shot chart is insane. Villa finally had a real chance in the 62nd minute, but the entire Villa box is full of high quality chances. Oh, and it's also 3-0 already.
   459. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 22, 2021 at 05:14 PM (#6048359)
Arsenal might be the best team this year that missed out on the CL. Only other serious contenders are Napoli, Sociedad, Tottenham, and West Ham.
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