Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Thursday, December 22, 2022
Premier League - Boxing Day December 26
Serie A - January 4
La Liga - December 29
Bundesliga - January 20
FA Cup - January 6
Champions League - February 14 (Knockout Stage)
MLS - February 25
Transfer Window - January 1 to January 31 (some differences within individual nations)
|
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
774. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: December 22, 2022 at 05:51 PM (#6110593)
Well, the real football starts again the day after Xmas.
This piece from The Athletic tallies up the WC minutes that various EPL players & teams saw. Not surprisingly, City had the most minutes, but Spurs had Lloris play every minute of the tournament and Harry Kane played every minute of England's run.
Arsenal's players didn't see that many minutes, but they did have something I dreaded happen -- Gabriel Jesus got hurt, and is out at least until February. So instead of adding depth for a title run, they're trying to replace a starter on a team that was already thin.
As for Serie A, we can all hope Juve is again relegated for impropriety and that, if it occurs, surpasses all on the pitch action. For me, I'm holding out hope Atalanta can stick around for continental football next year. It's gonna be hard. Still, any season with an endangered Juve and a Napoli Scudetto is a good one.
(Sorry no hyperlink, I’m on my phone)
Also, I thought the long injury time was not bad, either. I've watched many a match over the years in which the teams clearly didn't actually play 90 minutes. Nice to see them trying to get that right on a big stage.
EDIT: Though VAR in tennis has long been fast & accurate (and, I suspect, computer-assisted). You never know how it's going to go.
For me, I got really into the 1998 World Cup, and decided to follow the EPL as best I could (not so easy back then). I had just read Nick Hornby's "Fever Pitch," which is largely about his intense Arsenal fandom, so I picked Arsenal. It was really fun to be an Arsenal fan back then. Then it really sucked for a while. It's fun again.
I think the long injury time is a much-needed development. If implemented, it should seriously discourage time wasting.
I can't read it, but it really is remarkable how I'm able to watch every game of my favorite EPL team (and one that wasn't even good until this year) with our existing TV options in a way I've never been able to do with any of my favorite NA teams (largely my own fault, since I've never been one to choose the local team).
Sheffield United have done really well to be second at the halfway point given crippling injuries. They have really benefitted from the World Cup break, with a number of key players returning. They demolished Burnley when the two teams met, and Burnley's XG is well out of line with goals scored, although they are winning games by more than one goal as a rule. This could well be the top 2 in what looks a weak league. Watford and, if they fire Dean Smith, Norwich will challenge though.
Blackburn are having an odd season. They have won 13, drawn zero and lost 10 of their games. All 23 games have been won by the team scoring first, and the team scoring first has always led from that point: there have been no equalising goals. No one can decide quite how good they are.
Streaming and Cable TV has enabled me to watch 90 per cent of Sheffield United games for the last 5 years despite being on another continent. It's been great. I inherited supporting them. There are now 4 generations of us.
I became a Sunderland fan (yes, we exist in the U.S.) because when I was first able to see some EPL games Kevin Phillips was on a tear, and I really liked him. This was probably around the time he led the league in goals. Have survived the four years in League One and am happy that Sunderland seems to be mid-table-ish so far in the Championship, which is a very enjoyable league to follow. Pretty much started rooting for Celtic at about the same time, and also support Rennes and Celta de Vigo, for reasons you can surmise. Can't remember why I started liking Fiorentina (probably because they wear purple, my favorite color), but became a Kaiserslautern fan when Miroslav Klose was playing for them. Now, none of my teams ever win anything much (though Austin FC had a nice year), but it's amazing that I can occasionally, at least, see all of them on TV.
All I know for sure about Sunderland is that they were the team of Alf Wight, aka James Herriot, author of the All Creatures Great & Small books. Inasmuch as I see them play, I root for them for this reason.
Then there's QPR, which has the most lovely, tight pitch and a history that goes back to the FA Cup games v. Hoddle and Spurs that made me follow this stupid sport in the first place back way back. In my personal EPL, QPR is ALWAYS there, Fulham maybe/maybe not, and Stoke, because you've got to have Cristiano (or equivalent) play at Stoke on a Tuesday/Wednesday in mid-Winter. Because.
January will really tell us how good Arsenal is, I think, with Jesus out and matches against Brighton (New Year's Eve, technically) and Spurs, and on the road to Newcastle and United. I'd be pleased if they came out of those matches with more than 7 points.
I only started following the Premier League because my youngest son loves following pro/college sports and, when he started playing soccer five years ago, wanted to begin watching it at the highest level. His nickname is "Wolf" so when he looked at the list of EPL teams, he noticed the Wolves had just been promoted and it was a done deal. My son (now age 12) has followed Wolverhampton ever since, and I've kept up with them as well. So I'm a Wolves fan. This season has been rather frustrating, but hopefully the coaching change will lead to good things.
Meanwhile, I'm stuck in my own FM21 save – you follow see my (slow) progress here. Football is always fun to watch, but there's really nothing quite like a good, deep Football Manager save. Not only do you develop a much deeper appreciation for the intricacies of the beautiful game, but with add-ons like DarthFurion's World Super League you'll find that there really is never a dull match.
I also remain confused at those of you who still pay for television service. I was able to stream the entire World Cup for free, and routinely torrent games that are played at inconvenient times for future watching. The whole concept of sitting down at a certain time to watch a game with commercials on a certain screen seems like a relic from some bygone era.
I have a question about this: is this just oddsmakers being cautious about a club that they didn't think much of at the beginning of the season? I get that they're 7 points back of Arsenal, but 7 points isn't all that much. I've made a point of going back and watching a couple of Newcastle matches, and as far as I can tell they're the real deal. (Tony Blair must be ecstatic.) Or is it just that they're so confident in City that it's all but impossible for anybody else to get a foothold in those odds?
(NB that 538 doesn't buy Newcastle, either -- has them at a very similar 3% to win the league and only 50-50 to finish top 4, behind Liverpool and barely ahead of United.)
As a fan of the club, I'd say it's a little of both. 538 took forever to get onboard (before the season, the site had them finishing with fewer points than last year, which I thought was ridiculous), and I imagine if it were Chelsea or United with their points total and goal differential they might be seen with a little better odds. But I think City is rightfully seen as significantly better than everyone, and Arsenal's existing points edge is enough to make them the the only meaningful threat.
I don't say this as a criticism, but this is likely a function of the way 538's ratings work. Their model starts the season with 2/3 weighting towards the end of last season's rating (Newcastle wouldn't have been particularly high) and 1/3 weighting towards Transfermarkt values (again, most Newcastle players wouldn't rate that highly based on this metric). Then each game adjusts the rating based on result.
So Newcastle may have suddenly become the best team in the world, but since they're starting from a lower base there's ground to make up.
On top of that, Arsenal and City have both performed much better than Newcastle so far this year anyway.
Liverpool is expected to get 47.5 in 23 games. Still to play Chelsea, Leicester, Brentford, Wolves.
Arsenal is expected to get 42 points in 23 games. Still to play City, Newcastle, Brighton, Everton
Chelsea is expected to get 40.5 in 23 games. Still to play City, Liverpool, Fulham, Forest.
Tottenham is expected to get 37.5 in 22 games. Still to play City, Villa, Palace.
United is expected to get 39.5 points in 23 games. Still to play Palace, Leeds, Wolves, Bournemouth.
Newcastle is expected to get 36 points in 22 games. Still to play Arsenal, West Ham, Leeds.
Brighton is expected to get 32.5 in 22 games. Still to play Arsenal, Palace, Everton, Bournemouth.
Looking at the above, United and Newcastle are basically tied for 6th best in expectation now, especially since United's extra game is a home game. Behind City and Liverpool, obviously, but also a little behind Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham. They aren't far behind those last 3 though. Probably a bigger surprise is Chelsea still appears to be holding on for 4th in expectation, and they are very close to Arsenal.
I can’t imagine watching a game that has already happened with the same enthusiasm as a live event. Part of it is the social aspect of posting places like here or texting friends. Not to mention I read words like “torrent” and I know of it but wouldn’t possibly know how to use it (and I’m not asking for a tutorial). You do you of course, but for me watching a sporting event live is part of the experience.
And this was my objection from the start, back when 538 was projecting the club to finish with fewer points than last year. Newcastle's expectations were too low. They played horribly before the takeover under a terrible coach. Under Howe, and with the acquisitions in the January window last year, they were simply a much better team in the back half of 2021-22 (something like fifth in points after the start of the new year. I think they've played better than anyone expected going into the year, but they also legitimately played better than everyone except the two teams ahead of them. Their results to date are entirely consistent with their play.
Newcastle was projected by betting odds as the 7th best team coming into the season (1.47 ppg, distantly behind the top 6), and now they are projected as tied for 7th (and 6th) with United going forward (1.64 ppg). That's a very big improvement over expectations, but all it has done is close a lot of the large gap with the 3-6th teams.
Of these four, all are projecting a bit worse now except Arsenal.
Arsenal was 1.76, now is 1.82 (with harder remaining schedule than original)
Chelsea was 1.84, now is 1.76
Tottenham was 1.89, now is 1.70
United was 1.74, now is 1.72 (with easier remaining schedule than original).
If you don't count penalty calls, Brighton and Newcastle are right there on xGD with Newcastle. Personally I would do something like regress penalties 50%, which would still leave Newcastle ahead. Also I like what 538 does using both GD and xGD in some ratio, so Newcastle ends up a little ahead there as well, putting them ahead on performance to this date.
Even with all that, Newcastle is still outperforming xGD in a way that is typically not sustainable for a full season (as are a number of other teams, including all of Arsenal, Chelsea, United, and Tottenham). They have been playing more like a 68 point team rather than a 78 point team (which is where they would be if you pro-rated), and going forward are expected to play like a 62 point team.
Teams buck the odds by a little bit all the time, and by a lot some of the time. Newcastle playing like a team with 62 or so points going forward doesn't seem unreasonable to me. That's basically a 7th placed team, maybe 6th some years.
That's true, though they haven't been blessed with great health thus far, and perhaps more important, they don't have any European football to play that the other teams at the top do.
I live in both worlds. On the one hand, as someone living on the west coast who works a normal shift and coaches a lot right after work, being able to watch replays of games later that night is wonderful. I have a few subscriptions and mooch off of friends for others, so I am paying a bit, but most subscription services have replays available after the event ends, which is great. I don't do social media/Twitter at all, and have cultivated the impression that texts about game results are not appreciated, so things rarely get spoiled for me. And as long as I don't know what happened, watching on delay is just about as good as watching live.
On the other hand, I still really enjoy watching games live with people who love sports. Watching Oregon in the Holiday Bowl with my family tonight was a ton of fun. And to bring it back to soccer, a good friend came over to watch the 7 am games with me and my son during the World Cup, which was a blast. Live sports maintain their appeal if I'm in a group setting.
No team after the top 2 have any great chance, but someone has to get it. Currently odds are in favor of the usual suspects: Watford, Norwich, and West Brom, with Middlesbrough there too. That's where we were at the start of the season except that Burnley and Sheffield United have pulled away. Next best chances currently go to Milwall and Luton.
Well, I would hope so.
Nah, don't do that. Newcastle have received, and will continue to receive, the worst whistle of all clubs in the top half of the league.
Watching European football live is one thing. But once you have downloaded any US game, trying to go back to suffering through all the ad breaks is pure torture.
That was supposed to be Liverpool above.
Every team has multiple bad calls go against them every year. The missed call with Willock was very bad, but not even the worst of the season, and most teams have had something like it go against them.
VAR fixes most of the most egregious mistakes. But for every corrected call, there are instances where VAR did not, or could not. The fact that VAR had to step in a lot is actually not compelling evidence that referees are not biased against a team. Rather the opposite.
The top 6 teams are averaging 0 net penalties: -2, +1, +2, 0, -3, +2. True, that's lower than normal but Newcastle is not suffering in this regard anyway. Brighton is also -2.
Fans complaining about a bias against their team is a tale nearly as old as time.
Yes, Pope is particularly egregious about it. And while in general not enough time is added when it happens, it surely cost them a point against Liverpool.
He also has the leverage that he's Cristiano ####### Ronaldo and already rich and vain enough that it would take a massive amount of cash for him to deign to appear in a lesser league.
(Just going by MBM, haven't actually seen it:
)
I mean, the US didn't have quite the same negative baggage as SA does. But it was definitely viewed as taking a paycheque while being put out to pasture, if that is what you mean.
Newcastle could have had a penalty, but a play like that happens to multiple teams every week and is given as a penalty probably less than half the time. And almost never on VAR (if not already given on the field). Leeds is barely hanging on anyway, so I would expect Newcastle to win this one.
There may be other reasons to do it though... like keeping players healthy and not exhausting them. Still hard to believe it's worth it.
edit: maybe spoke a tad too soon... if they are going to lose focus best to do it up three late in a game, but it does tarnish the overall performance.
edit2: ok a lot of shine has (would have....) come off now. Heh. lucky there.
EPL odds:
They've been poor today though, and there could have been two more goals except for some offsides calls.
They can't defend a corner, and are leaving guys wide open to receive crosses right at the 6-yard box with no one near them. You can't win playing defense like that.
(Elliot off at the half as well for Keita. So Kopp was very much not happy with the defensive efforts...)
I always feel like an idiot acting like I know more than Klopp, but I don't get his insistence on playing the kid in this role.
Denying Arsenal points by limiting them to a draw (i.e., well below their mean result for this home game) would normally have been pretty useful as well, but Arsenal is probably too far ahead of Newcastle now for this to matter much at all.
I'm fairly certain Newcastle is not playing for a draw this early in the game, and unless they are struggling late I doubt they will be looking for a draw late in the game either. That last 5 minutes they were all over Arsenal.
Perhaps this is the way the thread ends.
It's a while ago now, but they did exactly that against Liverpool early in the season. It was horrendous and it nearly worked.
It also demonstrates something I've been saying all year: when Saka is out of the action -- either by injury or by being relentlessly swarmed by the game's best defense, as today -- Arsenal can look very pedestrian. I get that Odegaard is the captain and the star, but Saka is the man that makes that offense hum. Way too much time was spent playing kickaround between Partey, Zichenko, and Martinelli on the left, at least for the middle 70 minutes of the game. Partey demonstrated a spectacular lack of creativity for that entire period, which was a real problem, as Newcastle succeeded in trapping the Gunners into playing nearly every possession through him. White was also nowhere to be seen; Tomiyatsu, who played like #### against BHA, really opened up the offense and took pressure off Partey by playing aggressively in that last 20 minutes -- I don't think it's a coincidence that suddenly Arsenal was putting on a fireworks display after he hit the pitch.
I said I'd be happy with eight points out of these four matches from Brighton to United, so I guess I shouldn't be too disappointed in this result, even at home. Still, it was an annoying game to watch, and it was frustrating to see neither Arteta nor his players doing anything to adapt until it was too late.
Well, they'll still be his parents, and the next coach may not want to deal with whatever Danielle and Claudio have cooked up next.
Southampton is losing at home to Forest in the second half. Only 3 shots so far. That's a game they absolutely cannot afford to lose if they want to stay away from the relegation fight. Looks rough for them.
I don't disagree, but in my opinion Gio was already going to have to show an incredible increase in his maturity level to play for the USMNT again anyway. To pout and sulk at the World Cup because you're not in the lineup is ridiculous, even if he did apologize at the time. So he already had that to overcome, but this might permanently poison the well.
It's clear now where the sense of entitlement originated. The apple does not fall far from the tree with the Reynas. Wow.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main