bournemouth    66
southampton    60

forest         44
everton        44
wolves         33

leeds          16
leicester      13.25
west ham       13

palace          4
villa           3
brentford       2
fulham          1.5
brighton        0.25

City is considered far better than everyone else: about a true 90-point team. That seems a bit high to me, but it's hard to say. Liverpool (high 70s)) is still comfortably ahead of Arsenal (around 70)

city          61
arsenal       34

united         2.5
Newcastle      1.5
liverpool      0.7
tottenham      0.2
field          0.1

city          99
arsenal       94

united        61.5
liverpool     52.5
newcastle     47.5
tottenham     26.5
chelsea       13

brighton       5

field          1

           remaining            opponents still unplayed                        
        points    games   p/g    

city         48.5   21   2.31   arsenal, tottenham   (extra away)             

liverpool    42     21   2.00   chelsea, wolves      (extra away)       

arsenal      39     21   1.86   city, everton        (extra home)          
                                 
united       36.5   21   1.74   palace, leeds        (extra home)       
chelsea      36     21   1.71   liverpool, fulham    (extra home)          
newcastle    34     20   1.70   west ham                                  
tottenham    32.5   20   1.63   city                                    

brighton     31     21   1.48   palace, bournemouth  (extra home)        

west ham     26     20   1.30   newcastle                              
villa        25.5   20   1.28   leicester                           
      
leicester    24     20   1.20   villa                                        
palace       24.5   21   1.17   united, brighton     (extra away)        
wolves       22.5   20   1.13   liverpool                              

brentford    22.5   20   1.13   southampton                           
leeds        23     21   1.10   united, forest       (extra away)       
fulham       21     20   1.05   chelsea                                
everton      20.5   20   1.03   arsenal                              
southampton  20     20   1.00   fulham                                 

forest       18*    20*  0.90   leeds                                

bournemouth  15     20   0.75   brighton

                      betting odds          538
                   current original   current original
Manchester City       90*     90         83      85   
              
Liverpool             77      86         75      80

Arsenal               71      67         71      61   
 
Manchester United     65      66         64      57 
Chelsea               65      70         61      72
Newcastle             64.5    56         64.5    47  
Tottenham             63.5    72         60.5    66  

Brighton              54      48         60      54          
 
West Ham              50      53         50      50  
Aston Villa           48      51         53      54     
     
Leicester City        45.5    49         47.5    51  
Crystal Palace        45      46         42      50   
Wolverhampton         44      43         39      46 
     
Brentford             42      41         51      48 
Leeds                 41.5    41         43      41 
Fulham                41      37         45      36      
Everton               40      42         37      42   
   
Southampton           37.5    38         39.5    40     

Nottingham Forest     34      36         34      35

Bournemouth           29      31         33      36

"the interesting thing about the 538 projections rn is that they're making a bunch of pretty strong bets on relative team quality"

The German 50% model means the Bundesliga falls behind the PL from a competitive perspective but it keeps the teams locally controlled with a couple of exceptions.

And the Wolves go out in penalties, 4-3. Rough.

I say this not to be a pedant but because it is in fact cooler the correct way: it's just Wolves, not the Wolves.

I do think Alisson is an excellent keeper, and definitely better than Ederson imo. He has that Lloris gene in him though, he's good for throwing away a couple of goals a season.

Potter is right there with Lampard in "I can't understand why he still has his job" territory.

2. Offside offence

A player in an offside position at the moment the ball is played or touched* by a team-mate is only penalised on becoming involved in active play by:
interfering with play by playing or touching a ball passed or touched by a team-mate or
interfering with an opponent by:
preventing an opponent from playing or being able to play the ball by clearly obstructing the opponent’s line of vision or
challenging an opponent for the ball or
clearly attempting to play a ball which is close when this action impacts on an opponent or
making an obvious action which clearly impacts on the ability of an opponent to play the ball
or
gaining an advantage by playing the ball or interfering with an opponent when it has:
rebounded or been deflected off the goalpost, crossbar or an opponent
been deliberately saved by any opponent
A player in an offside position receiving the ball from an opponent who deliberately plays the ball, including by deliberate handball, is not considered to have gained an advantage, unless it was a deliberate save by any opponent.

A ‘save’ is when a player stops, or attempts to stop, a ball which is going into or very close to the goal with any part of the body except the hands/arms (unless the goalkeeper within the penalty area).

In situations where:

a player moving from, or standing in, an offside position is in the way of an opponent and interferes with the movement of the opponent towards the ball this is an offside offence if it impacts on the ability of the opponent to play or challenge for the ball; if the player moves into the way of an opponent and impedes the opponent's progress (e.g blocks the opponent) the offence should be penalised under Law 12
a player in an offside position is moving towards the ball with the intention of playing the ball and is fouled before playing or attempting to play the ball, or challenging an opponent for the ball, the foul is penalised as it has occurred before the offside offence
an offence is committed against a player in an offside position who is already playing or attempting to play the ball, or challenging an opponent for the ball, the offside offence is penalised as it has occurred before the foul challenge
*The first point of contact of the 'play' or 'touch' of the ball should be used

A player in an offside position shall be penalised if he makes an obvious action which clearly impacts on the ability of an opponent to play the ball.

General Principles, to impact the ability of an opponent to play the ball:

--the attacking player in an offside position must make an obvious action (the action must be obvious but does not need to be deliberate)
--the opponent would usually have a clear view of the attacking player in an offside position
--the opponent would need to delay his action to wait and see if the attacking player in an offside position touches/plays the ball
--the opponent’s movement or ball playing options are clearly restricted by the physical movement and/or actions of the attacking player in an offside position

I don't think we have to keep saying the rule is absurd, it was just a bad call.