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Thursday, December 22, 2022
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The second sub-rule requires only an obvious action. It's clear Rashford made an obvious action. However, this rule also requires a defender to be impacted in his ability to play the ball (not merely impacted generally). It's not so clear any City defender's ability to play the ball was impacted.
It's very clear to me City's players were impacted and there was an obvious action by Rashford. However, both those things are not sufficient.
The IFAB examples contain plenty of cases where "goalkeeper needs to delay his action to wait and see if the attacking player in an offside position touches/plays the ball". These cases might have all been a little more obvious in terms of GK indecision than the play today (though I think the play today Ederson was also pretty clearly having to defend two different players), but they are also interference without obvious "physical impact".
I'm not even sure what physical impact means in this context. A defender's mental state will affect his physical actions, obviously, so it must mean something more than that if it is intended to mean anything at all. The only thing I can think of is that the defender's physical actions were obviously different than they would have been without the offside player. Even if so, I think that pretty clearly applies to the play today as well. Those claiming that all the City players would have taken more or less the same actions without Rashford changing his run to stand over the ball must be watching a different game.
As usual Tottenham were much improved in the second half, but Ramsdale made a few good saves. The xG for the game ended up being about even.
Arteta just passed the 3 year mark at Arsenal, Conte himself has never managed anywhere for 4 years (one 3 year stint, several 2, couple 1s) so I don't really know what he's going on about there.
I know it goes against the pattern these days, but I certainly hope Arteta sticks around a lot longer than that. This is the best it's felt to be an Arsenal fan since before Wegner got senile.
Hey, wait. I got a new complaint.
I get that United has a game in hand, but Newcastle is far better than MU.
Even when they played head to head United outplayed them (though it was close, and United were at home). Honestly I'm not seeing it.
United also has an easier remaining schedule (played City twice already, where Newcastle has played Fulham twice), plus a game in hand.
Most importantly, a half season of games is just a sample--it should not be thought of as true talent. It has to be regressed towards overall expected talent, where United is expected to be better than Newcastle for good reason.
All that said, Newcastle is pretty close to United right now, but the game in hand and the easier schedule makes quite a bit of difference too.
For the record, it's not really a half season. Newcastle performed better in the second half of the 2021-22 season.
But I think the forecasts are fairly reasonable, for the reasons you say and because Man U seems to be playing at a pretty high level right now.
As a non-bettor do teams like ManU (Yankees, Lakers, Cowboys) get a boost of any sort just by virtue of the breadth of their fandom (and fears of fans of other teams)?
I need a drink or five.
Regardless, just looking at performance over the last 38 games you would probably say Newcastle has been better, but it's at worst close. The biggest difference is in actual GD, where Newcastle has been much better.
Nobody but me. /humanbeinz
Hasn't it been like 70 years since Everton was relegated?
Yup, definitely going for the sixth drink.
1915 Arsenal
1954 Everton
1962 Liverpool
1975 Man Utd
1978 Tottenham
1989 Chelsea
2002 Man City
2012 Southampton, West Ham
2013 Palace
2014 Leicester
2017 Newcastle, Brighton
2018 Wolves
2019 Villa
2020 Leeds
2021 Brentford
2022 Fulham, Bournemouth, Forest
Everton will escape. As usual.
Needless to say, I disagree on both points, but very vehemently on the second. I don't think that was correctly called a goal under the current rules as I have understood them to be interpreted, and more importantly, no way in hell should it be a goal under any reasonable set of rules.
Absolutely.
What happened?
edit: that Casemiro "miss" has an xG of 0.60 on infogol. That's way too high, considering, but still what a chance missed.
(Honestly, which rich team is more poorly run than Barcelona?)
Barcelona I feel like must not have any analytics department. They seem to sign guys for how great they've been rather than how good they'll be going forward.
Until the last 6 months or so Manchester United could step into that.
And I don't think we can dismiss Juventus in this discussion.
Well I'm not seeing any indication they're going to replace him now, so it's an immediate loss of depth. If they replace him then sure, yeah, I'm all for it.
Good call, though I think they've slipped quite a bit financially (still very rich obviously).
I think you have to give Chelsea a pass until the new ownership group has been in place a little longer, no?
Oh definitely, I just think they've been a mess so far, seemingly no plan at all.
And then that. Sure yeah makes sense, ballgame.
Then they immediately melted down to allow a second, similar in that way to the United game this past weekend after the first goal.
City can do that to anyone, and Spurs are absolutely no exception.
Anyway, you guys play football manager? I dipped my toe in last year on the switch, then jumped in the deep end on my macbook with the full version. I had success last year bringing Ipswich from the third level to the EPL, but they became a yoyo-club. This year, I chose to start a save with Leeds
Question: I seem to be good at it but I do not know why, but since it looks like I will qualify for Europe in Year 1, what is the best time to convince ownership to increase the transfer budget. Has anyone had any success with this? I really need another central defender in the worst kind of way, I am dramatically out-peforming xG in both directions.
Anyway, I will hang up and listen.
EDIT: I think they are under two separate investigations and I'm not sure which one this punishment is for. Unaccounted for wages during covid financial restrictions, I think?
I think maybe we have a winner in the "worst-run wealthy team" sweepstakes. Yowza.
I've only dabbled since the halcyon days of Championship Manager 3 and my Wolves save with 17-year-old Robbie Keane. If you're looking for advice, I've found the YouTube channel of 'Zealand' has a lot of entertaining tutorials and deep dives into how FM works.
They apparently lost $246 million last season, and over $500 million combined over the past 3 seasons, so it's possible they're simply no longer rich.
Eleven points from four matches since the break. Not bad.
A fun game the way it played out but United has to be much better than that to hold on to a CL spot. Even against Arsenal in London, which is clearly going to be one of their two or three hardest games of the year.
Sing it with me now:
Newcastle United is better
Than Manchester United
As one can see
From their relative performances
In North London
The scoreline really biases fans and pundits from seeing overall quality of a team's performance, whether in game or after it is over. I'm continually surprised by how strong the effect is.
edit: and I'm just remembering now that the announcers on whatever channel I was watching with 15 minutes left had the silliest exchange on this point. The play-by-play guy asked the other whether the teams might be settling in for a draw. At that point in the game United might have been quite happy to do so, with a draw on the road considered a median event for them coming in and their performance in no way justifying it. Arsenal however? No effing way they were interested in settling for a draw having been far, far, better to that point in the game, currently having the run of play, having close to two points as their expectation coming in, having amassed tons of wins this year and expecting another one coming to the game. And their position in the table is in no way safe with City lurking behind them, and they know it. Why would they ever be settling for a draw right then? To even suggest it was ludicrous.
To his extremely minor credit the colour guy implied that Arsenal probably would not be happy with a draw, but it was so tepid he gets very little credit.
I heard that. Wasn't it like when Arsenal had the ball inside the penalty area for minutes at a time?
Yeah, and Arsenal could have won that match 5-0 on the exact same quality of play.
edit: I also didn't realize these EFL semis were still two-legged. Make them single elimination and play them at Wembley already.
I think they only played three seasons in the same division, but in each of those Fergie years United won the league while Rading was either relegated or nearly so. Even then Reading didn't do too badly, drawing 2 of the 6 matchups and losing the other 4 by just one goal.
Still scoreless today but it is very one-sided.
edit: Reading actually managed 8th in 2006-2007, and 6th in GD. Pretty impressive if it was not a fluke. They were relegated their other two years in the prem (2007-2008 and 2012-2013). United also won one of the four games by 2 goals, the other three by a single goal.
edit: and in the vast majority of cases, the heel is not used at all on these plays. Fred didn't use his heel.
It wasn't a fluke. They were genuinely very good that year. Coming up off a record points total in the Championship and basically relying on the same squad. In terms of true talent, they probably weren't quite as good as the final table suggested, but they were definitely a deserving mid-table side.
Then they modestly underperformed the following year and got relegated after that crazy run by Fulham in their first Hodgson season just barely overtook them.
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